Cole Or Strasburg Critical For The Yankees?

I have had a week to mourn the passing of the 2019 New York Yankees season. The sting is slight and if the Nationals can finish off the Astros, then all the better. While I congratulate the Astros fans for their season and World Series appearance, I hate that team with a passion. There is not a rational reason for the feeling. Hey, I am a fan and a fan just randomly feels stuff. With all that said, I can finally start to ponder next year and what the Yankees will do between now and then. I will start with a few categories for members of the 2019 team:

Things I am hoping will happen:

• Buying out Edwin Encarnacion
• Trading Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier.
• Releasing Greg Bird, Jacoby Ellsbury and most of the bottom of 2019's bullpen
• Cleaning house of the conditioning team and starting over.
• Losing Larry Rothschild
• Calling it a prospect career for Chance Adams

Things I am semi-okay about happening:

• Losing Brett Gardner
• Losing Didi Gregorius
• Losing Cameron Maybin
• Losing Austin Romine

Things I would be unhappy about:

• Losing Dellin Betances
• Losing Ben Heller

Let me offer some insight into those feelings. There are times when emotions overrule common sense. I call it the "Aubrey Huff Rule." Remember the year Huff had in 2010? And then he had a great post-season and he was everyone's hero. Never mind that his year was an outlier or that he was aging. The Giants resigned him and he went south...fast. Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorius are those two guys for me. They are both great team players. They are both full of great Yankee moments. But, perhaps their time has passed despite Gardner's surprising (or not with the baseball) homer total and Didi's big series against the Twins. I think that JA Happ was an Aubrey Huff Rule-break by the Yankees. Now, they are stuck with him.

Mike Tauchman is the new Brett Gardner. Losing Didi puts DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres at the positions they belong. I hate to see them go. But I hated to see Bernie Williams go too.

Edwin Encarnacion also had some nice moments for the 2019 Yankees. But Giancarlo Stanton is going to play a lot at the DH spot and if the Yankees can get a combo of Luke Voit healthy along with Mike Ford, you have all you need for the DH and first base. Of course, if JD Martinez opts out of his deal with the Red Sox, you can get creative if you want to. Cameron would be a decent outfield backup, but I am okay if that does not happen. Austin Romine is not exciting at all, but his last two years at backup catcher have been above league average and not too many teams can say that.

As good as the Yankee bullpen was all year, Dellin Betances was a huge loss and I think it was felt in a lot more ways than most people think. You add Betances to that mix and the relievers can be spread out more over games and not depend on the same four. I think Ben Heller is a heck of an option in there too. And he is a lot more affordable than Betances. I still think Betances is worth a two or three year deal, which he would take after missing an entire season.

As for Larry Rothschild, look at the fact that Lance Lynn got better after he left the Yankees as did Sonny Gray. Whatever magic sauce the Astros use to up their pitchers' velocity and spin rate has to come from a fresh face and not Rothschild.

All that said, the only question is finding a replacement for Aaron Hicks. Which leads me to ask what possessed the Yankees to give him that long-term deal with his injury history.

The big story line all winter will be about the Yankees going after Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg. I would love the latter but there is no chance the Yankees get the former. All indications are that Cole wants to go home to California.

What if the Yankees get neither? Is that a disaster? I don't think so. Have we already given up on Jordan Montgomery? I think we have and should not. After Domingo German serves his suspension, you are left with a rotation of James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, and Domingo German with JA Happ and Jonathan Loaisiga in the mix if you want to banish German, which is understandable. I think that can be a pretty strong rotation.

I think the Yankees should forget their stats a little bit about the third time through an order and work hard at getting the starters to be efficient and go for six innings at least per start. You cannot ask or think that the bullpen (no matter how good they are) can get twelve or more outs per game. And, please, no more "Openers!"

If the Yankees can swing a big deal with Cole or Strasburg, sure, go for it, but, again, unless you have new life in the pitching leadership (coaching) department, will those guys continue to dominate and is it ever smart to give a starting pitcher $300 million? So much can happen during that term. CC Sabathia worked out fine, but the Yankees did not get more than three (out of ten) of his peak years.

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What went wrong in the ALCS? I agree with Aaron Boone that the Astros made one or two plays better than the Yankees did in each of the losses. The Yankees were a few big hits away from having a chance in that series.

I will say this in hindsight. To me what really hurt the Yankees was a lack of continuity going from the Twins in the ALDS to the Astros in the ALCS. Think back to the Twins series. The Yankees used the same lineup in all three games. And that lineup raked except for Encarnacion, who was probably rushed back with the hope that he would be able to hit and hit for power. He was not. Mike Ford would have been a better choice.

Now jump to the Astros' series. Aaron Hicks was added in.  Giancarlo Stanton was injured out and Boone shuffled his lineup in each game. That was a mistake in my opinion. Hicks did hit that big three-run homer in the first game. But that was it. He was not a factor (except negative) the rest of the way. Gleyber Torres should have batted third in every game. He did not. Hicks had one single the rest of the way. Yes, he did walk four times and saw a lot of pitches. I will give him that.

The Yankees had zero continuity in the lineup during the regular season. Injuries had a small part of that. But the constant lineup tinkering has got to stop in 2020. The Yankees got away with it during the season because it was a marathon and not a sprint. Even so, I think the Yankees would have had a better record with less rest days and more continuity in the lineup. Consider that Gleyber Torres had more than fifteen starts at five different lineup positions and ten in a sixth. Ridiculous.

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The F chant toward Jose Altuve and the abuse to Zack Greinke were terrible things. As a fan of the Yankees, such behavior was embarrassing and made all Yankee fans the object of derision and scorn. Not all Yankee fans are so insensitive and classless. It stinks to be lumped into the hate the actions of a few caused for all fans.

MLB Playoffs: Is It Too Easy For Davy To Beat Goliath?

The New York Yankees emerged from the four division series as the only team that had an easy time moving on. Of course, for Yankee fans, that was a lot of fun. For Twins' fans, not so much. But the other three series have been utterly fascinating while going the distance. We had a blowout Game Five in Atlanta as the Cardinals surprisingly moved on. And we had heartbreak in Los Angeles for Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. Tonight we find out who will emerge from the remaining division series as those scrappy Rays take the Astros to the limit.

The five-game series format of the division series does post angst of whether it is the best format for this stage of the Major League Baseball season. It seems to make it easier that the best team can be beaten in the frenzy. The Dodgers were easily the best team in the National League and they are going home. If the Rays pull off the impossible and beat the Astros tonight, then the best team in the American League will go home. That is a big "If" of course. But if it does, that means that both of the bests and most favored in their respective leagues will end their seasons against wildcard teams.

The wildcard gives those teams the sense of being the underdog with absolutely no pressure. The underdog is not expected to win. So they can play with abandon while the Number One seeds have all the pressure to go the distance because of the expectations. Since the five-game format does lead to such excitement, and because nobody wants to play baseball in the snow, I would leave that format as is, but I would make one tweak.

There has to be a bigger benefit for a top seed against a wildcard team. There has to be a premium for having the best record and winning a division. A wildcard team does not have home field advantage with the 2-2-1 format. But I think the format still gives a wildcard team a route to get a playoff series win. If the wildcard wins its two games at home, then you are guaranteed a Game Five (unless the wildcard team took one of the first two on the road). And anything can happen in a Game Five as we have seen.

I propose that the wildcard team only gets one home game out of the five. Again, there needs to be a reason to win a division and have the best record. Would a team such as the Yankees have fought harder down the stretch for the best record in the AL if they knew it meant four home games in the division series? I think so. As for the wildcard team, there has to be a real disadvantage for not winning a division. I think a 2-1-2 format does that.

This will never happen, of course, as there would be an outcry from the Nationals or the Rays about lost revenue. But my answer to them would be, "Then win the division!" If you think about it, the wildcard teams have just as much of a shot as the Twins and Cardinals received. I don't think that's right. There has to be a real benefit for winning the division and a real cost for not winning a division.

The National League Championship Series will feature the unlikely match-up of the Nationals against the Cardinals with the Cardinals getting a 4-3 home field advantage. I am not sure I would mess with that as a seven-game series seems to benefit the best team. But if a wildcard was involved, you could make it a 5-2 split something like 2-2-3. But, again, the seven-game format does make it harder for the emotional edge a five-game series gives a team as an underdog.

The American League is yet to be determined. And even though my Yankees are involved, I would want them to play the Astros. You want the two best teams slugging it out. There is a reason a heavyweight fight draws more than a welterweight. Plus, having half the games (or three of them) in that abomination of a stadium in St. Pete is not good for baseball. Plus, the Yankees have played the Rays 19 times already. Enough already! Facing the Rays in the ALCS is like playing Whack-A-Mole after winning the division over them in the first place.

It has been a fascinating playoffs already. And the buzz is good for baseball. You cannot ask for much better than having three of the four series go the distance. On the other hand, you want the best teams slugging it out in the Championship Series and the current format only gives division winners a slight advantage of making that happen. With apologies to wildcard teams and not denigrating the accomplishment of making it as a wildcard team, there should be a bigger penalty for not winning the division. We need to make it harder for Davy to beat Goliath.

The amazing career of Anthony Young

Anthony Young is the answer to a trivia question. Feel free to use it at your next party. The record for most consecutive losses in which a pitcher had a decision belongs to Young with 27. Between May 6, 1992 to July 24, 1993, Young did not win a game. He pitched for the Mets those two seasons and they were really bad teams. But the Mets' winning record for those two seasons at least led to a .404 winning percentage. Anthony Young's winning percentage for those two seasons was a combined .100. He went 3-30. Those numbers are just the start of a whole lot of numbers fun concerning Anthony Young.

Anthony Young first arrived on the seen for the Mets in 1991. That season, he went 2-5. By the time he was mercifully traded to the Chicago Cubs (for Jose Vizcaino) before the 1994 season, his final record with the Mets was 5-35, good (or bad) for a .125 winning percentage. The teams' winning percentage during that span was .420. Young started 31 games in those three seasons and pitched in relief another 70 times. He actually compiled 18 saves for the Mets. But he couldn't win.

Young fared a little better for the Cubs in 1994 and 1995. He was a starter for them in 1994 and pitched in relief in 1995. His record for the Cubs was 7-10. At least that was good for a .412 winning percentage. His last season was with the Astros. It was his only season not in the red and he finished at 3-3.

Those last three seasons at least allowed him to finish his career with a .238 winning percentage (15-48). Only Fernando Abad has pitched in 180 games or more and has a lower winning percentage. And only two pitchers in baseball have pitched in as many as 480 innings with a lower career winning percentage. Dolly Gray pitched between 1909 and 1911 and had a .227 winning percentage. Ike Pearson lead the way as he pitched between 1939 and 1948 and compiled a .206 winning percentage.

What is sort of amazing about that last paragraph is that Gray and Pearson had an ERA+ for their careers in the 70s. Anthony Young's career ERA+ was 100. We'll get to that a bit later.

There is so much more fun to explore first. As a starter, Anthony Young went 7-27 (.206). As a relief pitcher, Young went 8-21 (.276). He was 0-7 in save situations (though he did successfully save 20 games). He went 8-28 at home (.222) and 7-20 on the road (.259). June was a particularly bad time for Anthony Young. He went a combined 2.16 in June (.111).

Young went 9-32 in the first half (.220) and 6-16 in the second half (.273). He went 8-28 at night (.222) and 7-20 during the day (.259). Young went 9-33 on grass (.214) on grass fields and 6-15 on artificial turf (.286).

Remarkably, Young finished with a 2-20 record in games he pitched at Shea Stadium. Shea was a pitchers park. His other dark place was Riverfront Stadium in Cincinnati, where he went 0-5.

The only way Anthony Young could win as a starter was if his team scored six or more runs. He went 6-0 in such situations. But that happened fourteen times when he started games. In other words, there were eight times his team scored more than six runs and Young could not even manage a decision.

Anthony Young's teams scored five or less runs 37 times. Young went 1-27 in those games. He was 0-18 when his team scored two runs or less and 1-9 when they scored three to five runs.

One of the biggest arguments between old school baseball observers and the new statistically minded writers is what makes a good pitcher. The old school thought was: Did the guy win and did he have a good ERA. Now we look at FIP and WAR and other things. By old standards, Anthony Young was awful in that he could not win. But his ERA (and ERA+) were often quite acceptable. His ERA+ was over 100 (league average) in four of his six seasons.

FIP tells us another story. Young had a FIP of 3.38 in 1992, which isn't half bad. But it went up every season after that by more than fifty points. And, as mentioned, he finished with a 100 career ERA+. There are a lot of mixed signals in his career numbers. Baseball-reference.com gives him 1.1 rWAR for his career. Fangraphs.com gives him 2.5 fWAR including positive WAR for all three years he was a Met. Hmm...

The truth is somewhere in the middle. The Mets were dead last in fielding efficiency in 1991, next to last in 1992 and in the bottom half in 1993. In other words, his fielders did not help him. Since he was not a strikeout guy and put the ball in play, that had to hurt him. For his three years with the Mets, he allowed 148 runs, but only 115 of them were earned or 78%. Compare that with the 84% of his runs were earned with the Cubs and 94% with the Astros.

The numbers also tell us that as a right-handed pitcher, Young did not pitch well against left-handed batters. They had an .828 OPS against him in his career with a batting average over .300.

An old school guy would say that Anthony Young did not know how to win. But he did go 15-3 in Double-A in 1990. But perhaps a well-balanced look at everything overall tells us that Anthony Young had an extraordinary run of bad luck with the Mets and while not one of the best pitchers ever, did pitch better than his record.

The losing streak was amazing. Fans were sending him rabbit feet and all kinds of things to help him. The family of the previous record holder, Cliff Curtis, even made a video telling him to pitch a no-hitter so not to break the family's record. Young broke it anyway. The losing streak created a life of its own and colored his career forever.  Perhaps he deserved a kinder fate. But at least this way, his career will never be forgotten.

First year starters are a crap shoot

Tonight, Nick Tropeano will be the 45th pitcher this season to make his Major League debut as a pitcher (and start at least one game). Last year, 57 pitchers did the same and there were 48 who did so in 2012. The data from those pitchers in their very first year and starting at least once in that first year shows that Tropeano and the Houston Astros are hoping for the best in what has not been a very successful adventure.

I don't know about you, but I love players making their debuts. It's part of that baseball circle of life thing that keeps the blood fresh and interesting. And I always root for the guy to do well. With the exception of the guys drafted in the top rounds, many of these pitchers worked their way through the systems, rode buses galore, didn't make a whole pile of dough and earned a shot. You want someone to make it after knowing that kind of history.

More often than not, it does not work out. Of the 48 pitchers that made their debut in 2012, only sixteen of them had an ERA better than league average. For every Chris Archer, there were two like Brooks Raley. And yet, I bet to a man, each and every one of those pitchers would not trade the experience for the world. I'm not sure about their managers.

Let's look at some of the overall numbers. The league average ERA in 2012 was 4.01. The average ERA of pitchers who started in their debut seasons was 4.41. In 2013, the league average ERA was 3.87 and the debut season guys compiled to a 4.20. This year, the average ERA is 3.76 and the debut guys are averaging 4.27.

And don't forget that those debut season numbers are propped up by guys who really succeeded. For example, Hyun jin Ryu and Jose Fernandez really propped those numbers up quite a bit in 2012.

Let's look at some other data:

Hits per nine: The league average has remained pretty stable at 8.7 hits per nine in 2012 and 2013 and 8.6 this year. The debut pitchers have averaged, 8.9, 9.1 and 9.4 respectively.

WHIP: The average WHIP in baseball for the last three years has been 1.309 (2012), 1.300 (2013) and 1.281 this year.  The debut pitchers have averaged following that same year pattern, 1.369, 1.372, 1.373. Again, significantly higher despite some real success stories bolstering the numbers.

Strikeouts per nine from 2012 through 2014: 7.6, 7.6 and 7.7. Same timeline for the debutantes: 7.4, 7.4 and 6.9.

Walks per nine from 2012 through 2014: 3.1, 3.0 and 2.9. For the debut review: 3.2, 3.3 and 2.9.

Strikeout to walk ratio in MLB from 2012 to 2014: 2.48, 2.51, 2.64. Now for the first timers: 2.33, 2.24 and this year, 2.34.

Did you notice a trend with those numbers? While the MLB averages have shown better peripherals across the board for pitching each season, with the exception of walks per nine and K/BB, the numbers for the debut guys are worse each year. Why would that be?

I have some theories but do not have time to test them out. One is that teams are pushing these debuts to younger pitchers or those with less experience. This theory might not hold water because the average debut age this year is 25 and it was in the 23 range in 2013 and 2012. But that also may be skewed by older debut guys like Tsuyoshi Wada and Jason Lane (as a pitcher). The other is that many of these debuts come for teams down in the standings with low payrolls and they might not benefit from the same quality of fielding behind them.

One last statistic because most don't think it significant: The winning percentage of the debut pitchers are (from 2012 to 2014 respectively), .461, .482 and .442.

We have looked at ERA, WHIP, H/9, K/9, BB/9 and K/BB. Of those six categories leading to eighteen numbers to look at over the three year period, only one stat for one year matches that year's average. One out of eighteen. All in all, the peripherals for every category were worse than league average and worse for successive years from 2012 to this year.

I will be rooting for Nick Tropeano. For one thing, he is Italian (or at least his name is). Secondly, he is from New York and lastly, I am a sucker fro guys trying to make a mark in their world. But as much as I root for Nick Tropeano, the odds are against him.

Collin McHugh - a flower amidst the ruins

The Houston Astros have been in the news for all the wrong reasons lately. Another big losing season (with some improvement) meant the chopping block for their highly regarded manager, Bo Porter. Some young studs have been brought up from the minors (with some controversy) and have not delivered. But amidst such a ruinous season has emerged Collin McHugh as a bright spot.

Collin McHugh was never regarded as a top prospect. He was drafted in the 18th Round of the 2008 draft by the New York Mets. They traded him to the Rockies for Eric Young. Yes, you may laugh now. The Rockies exposed him to waivers and the Astros snatched him up. Give the stat folks in the Astros' front office some credit for that coup.

McHugh won regularly in the minors. His strikeout rate suffered some in the infamous hitter-crazy PCL while in the Rockies system. But the control was still there and the Astros liked what they saw. And they should have.

And don't be fooled by Collin McHugh's 7-9 record. Seven of those losses occurred when the Astros failed to score more than two runs. He is 7-2 in games his team scores three runs or more. And his peripherals are great.

How great? How about 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings? How about his 3.3 strikeout to walk ratio? He also has allowed only 7.3 hits per nine innings and has done a great job of keeping the ball in the park. His 25% strikeout rate is identical to Cueto and Lester. And his WHIP is a very good 1.12.

I like to look at the ERA compared to FIP and McHugh is doing very well there too. His ERA is 2.99 while his FIP is 3.26 (xFIP of 3.23). So Collin McHugh has done very well. But how has he done it?

McHugh does not have much of a fastball and tops out in the low 90s. But he throws curves 22.5% of the time and sliders 29.2% of the time. Both pitches have been exceptional for him. The slider is especially effective rating out at 12.6 runs above average. That ranks fourth among starters.

While he doesn't fool people out of the strike zone, he has a good rate of first pitch strikes, which is important for a guy throwing a lot of breaking balls and he has a very good 11% swing and miss rate.

Perhaps he has been a bit fortunate with a BABIP of .273 and a strand rate of 76%, but the rest of the numbers seem to point to a pitcher that has found himself in the Majors.

One area McHugh can improve upon is his efficiency. In his 21 starts, he is averaging only 6.02 innings per start. And yet, he consistently throws more than 100 pitches a game. If he can be more efficient, he can last longer into the game and not have to trust a spotty bullpen to work for him. I would guess that he is trying to be perfect with his breaking stuff when he gets ahead in the count.

Collin McHugh will face the Angels tonight. They are a tough team and McHugh's outing will be tested. But if he is on, it doesn't matter who he faces. He has a 2.25 in three starts against the Angels thus far this year and a 3.32 ERA against teams with a record better than .500. 

There has been a lot of gray in Houston this season, but Collin McHugh has been a hue of bright colors. He has been a flower amidst the ruins.

Five tool players

I admit it. I brought you here under false pretenses. Here you thought you were going to read about players or prospects that had the proverbial five tools like running, throwing, power, high batting average and character. But that is not what this post is about. I'll leave such tool worship to the scouts and prospect writers who are good at what they do. Instead this post is about players whose names come from tools. There are five of them.

The first is named after a garden instrument. You have all heard of the common garden hoe. They are great for taking care of weeds that always seem to grow better than your vegetables or flowers do. If you have more than one hoe, you have hoes. That's where L.J. Hoes comes in. He was drafted by the Orioles in the third round of the 2008 draft and was part of the deal that sent Bud Norris to the Orioles from Houston in 2013. Hoes has seen limited duty in parts of three seasons and is currently in the minors. His real first name is Jerome.

With the terrible fashion statement today of men having scruffy faces and beards, it's doubtful that many are going to barbers these days to get a shave. But if they did, they would see the barber with a piece of leather hanging near his equipment. That leather thing is called a strop and helps him/her keep the blade sharp.

Pedro Strop currently pitches for the Chicago Cubs. Strop also has ties to the Baltimore Orioles as he pitched there for a few seasons. He was originally signed by the Colorado Rockies in 2002 out of the Dominican Republic and has also pitched for the Rangers. He has had two very fine seasons for the Cubs in 2013 and 2014.

A thatcher is also called a de-thatcher, which makes little sense. Both are correct, but that's kind of like flammable and inflammable. Why do we need two words that mean the same thing? Anyway, the tool is designed to thin out your lawn so that the plants that make up your lawn have more room to breathe and grow freely. I want to buy one for my lawnmower, but you have to get cinder blocks to put on top of it to keep it thatching. Why wouldn't they design a product that could stay down in the first place?

Joe Thatcher is a relief pitcher that you cannot keep down either. He has pitched parts of eight seasons with significant relief appearances since 2010. He was recently acquired by the Angels from the Diamondbacks so Joe must not be one of those rah-rah types. He hasn't pitched well for the Angels so far, but he is a good relief pitcher with a proven track record. He currently makes $3.75 million which means that he could afford a lot of cinder blocks.

The fourth one is my least favorite examples because it is kind of a blah tool. But we all need them to run our cars, lawnmowers and engines of all sorts. They also keep our pants up. I am talking of the belt.

Brandon Belt was drafted by the Giants so he is a home grown guy. He had sort of a break out season a year ago as he took over first base. But things haven't worked out this year and it's been pretty much a lost year for him. He still seems to have a bright future and can keep the Giants' offensive motor running for years to come.

The fifth is my favorite. It is the peavy. A peavy is a logging tool and has a broom like handle with a metal spike on the end and a metal hook. It was invented to help move logs that were stuck in log drives that jammed up in rivers. They are simply useful in maneuvering logs. The reason I like it so much is that it was invented right here in Maine by Joseph Peavy of Upper Stillwater, Maine and the Peavy Manufacturing Company is still making variations today.

Jake Peavy is in the business of trying to separate wood from batters. As a pitcher, he tries to out-maneuver them so they either strikeout or hit the ball weakly for an out. Peavy is a former star who lost favor in Boston and was traded to the Giants. He is doing better for that team and seems to have a big of his swagger back.

I apologize that you did not find any information about five-tool players. But I hope you enjoyed this little bit of nonsense in the midst of a overly-serious baseball world.

Checking in on George Springer

The big league career of George Springer is now 44 games old and it seemed like it was time to check in to see how he was doing. Oh, we see the power and the ten homers on the highlight shows and he has made an impression. But how is he really doing? The prognosis is that he is holding his own and the early results are mostly encouraging.

Last night's Springer Dinger was pretty amazing. 

Facing Phil Hughes in the sixth inning, Hughes had given Springer nothing but fastballs all night, which looking at Springer's pitch value chart is not a good idea. But Hughes had struck him out the first two times relatively easily. And he got the first two strikes on Springer in the sixth inning at bat too with fastballs. But then Hughes threw one too many. It was a great pitch, painted black and low on the outside corner. Springer's rear end flew out a little bit and he flicked his bat out and the bat caught the ball on the sweet spot and it went out to the opposite field. It was amazing.

That is what we see on the highlight reel. But the rest of the story was the two strikeouts before and the sacrifice fly after. All in all, a successful night with three RBIs.

The thing everyone was ramped up for when it came to Springer was his package of speed, power and plate discipline. So far we have seen two out of the three.

We have already talked about the ten homers in 44 games but should also mention the 32 RBIs and eight other extra base hits.  His ISO does not yet match his minor league data, but .227 is quite good nonetheless and has to be exciting for Houston fans.

The plate discipline has been there. Springer has shown discipline in the strike zone. He is swinging at 23.4% of pitches out of the zone according to PitchF/X and at only 47.4% overall. That has led to a 10.2% walk rate. Again, that is less than his minor league numbers but still quite good for a rookie when most rookies come up to the Majors hacking like no tomorrow (see Tavares for the Cardinals for example). Springer should only get better in that department.

The plate discipline has given Springer a .340 OBP with only a .250 batting average. Encouraging. The one discouraging thing about looking at his plate discipline is the swing and miss rate.

Springer is currently swinging and missing at a 17.8% clip. That is the third highest in baseball and even higher than his teammate Chris Carter. That has led to an extremely high strikeout rate of 32.8%, the third highest in baseball. The rate is six percentage points higher than what he did in his last two seasons in the minors.

Everyone knew that Springer was going to strike out a lot. But that is a lot a lot. It will remain to be seen if Springer can lower that proclivity as the season moves along.

If you look at how Springer is doing against certain pitches, you can see where the strikeouts are coming from. He is mashing the fastball and already has pitch value of 10.5 runs against that pitch. Sliders and change-ups are killing him though. For sure, the Major League pitcher has a better arsenal of those pitches than the minors. Springer will have to adjust and improve against them.

The thing most people were waiting to see (especially fantasy players) was the stolen bases. George Springer stole 85 bases in 101 attempts in the minors. He has only tried three times in the Majors and has been thrown out twice. So that has been a disappointment. Good coaching should be able to help him in that area as time goes on. Again, everything is better in the Majors including the catching.

George Springer's defense in right field reminds me of the early days of Wil Myers and Giancarlo Stanton. It has been pretty rough so far and Fangraphs already rates his defense at negative five runs. Both of those mentioned formerly have worked hard to improve the defense and no doubt Springer will too.

We are 44 games into George Springer's career. That is a pretty good sample size for an early gauge on how he is going to do in the big leagues. Despite the high strikeout rate, his wOBA is healthy enough at .359 as is his wRC+ of 130. Those aren't nearly as high as his career in the minors, but it is still a fine start to a Major League career. For George Springer, so far, so good.

So long, Lance Berkman and Michael Young

A couple of Texas institutions during the past fifteen years hung up their spikes this week. Between the two of them, Lance Berkman and Michael Young banged out 3,940 hits while wearing the uniform of teams from Texas. Berkman, of course, was the first round draft pick of the Houston Astros who had quite a career there and Young plied his trade with the Texas Rangers for his long career.

Though they were both drafted in 1997 and both were institutions where they played and banged out consistent .300 batting averages over the years, the similarity between the two players pretty much ends there. If the sun were Cooperstown, Lance Berkman was the Earth and Young, probably Jupiter. I said Pluto last night on Twitter, but that was a bit unkind and in response to another blogger who stated that Young retired on the cusp of Cooperstown. Young was not even close to that kind of player.

But Lance Berkman was. If he could have stayed healthier, he could have really put up the kind of numbers that would get him a plaque. Berkman's injuries led him to have only twelve seasons where he played more than a hundred games. Out of those twelve, he slugged over .500 eleven times and had over a .400 on-base percentage eight times.

Just to give you an idea of how different they were offensively, Lance Berkman had a career wOBA of .400 on the dot. Michael Young had a career wOBA of .342. Lance Berkman's offense was worth 433.6 batting runs during his career. Young's offense was worth 44.2, almost ten percent of Berkman's contribution. Berkman finished with a 144 wRC+ (same as his OPS+) and Young, 104.

Interestingly, they finished within six total bases of each other for their career, but Berkman compiled his in almost 800 fewer plate appearances. Berkman's 1,201 career walks more than doubles Young's career total.

Young was much more durable. In one twelve year stretch, Young played more than 150 games in eleven of those seasons. He also led the league in hits twice and batting average once. He made seven All Star teams and finished in the top ten in MVP voting twice.

Young was more of a cog in a wheel of some very good Rangers teams (and some very bad ones). Berkman was a contemporary with Biggio and Bagwell for years and was just as much as an offensive star as either of them.

Young will always be marked down a bit because he played half of his games in Texas Rangers' home parks, always considered hitters' paradise. Indeed, his home OPS for his career is 108 points higher than his road OPS.

Berkman just flat out hit no matter where he was. For his career, Berkman a .946 OPS guy at home and .940 on the road. His OPS was over .900 for every month of the year--over .950 for three of those months. He had a career .970 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position, a .926 OPS in late and close games and a .956 OPS in tie games.

Young played more valuable positions on the field and his versatility is somewhat what kept him a fixture for so long. That is not to say that he always played them well. Berkman played the bulk of his career as a left-fielder (while Bagwell was at first) and then as a first baseman: two positions that do not rate highly on the positional skill ranking. But he played them reasonably well most of the time.

Young was strictly a right-handed batter who was consistent against pitchers who threw with either arm. Lance Berkman was a switch-hitter who was much, much better batting left-handed.

Both players were considered good clubhouse guys. Berkman was known for his humor and for keeping things loose and teammates laughing. Young was a leader of his clubhouse in Texas for many years.

Both played quite a few post-season games. Berkman over-performed his career numbers there was killer in his two World Series appearances. Young under-performed in his post-season career.

As you have seen, Lance Berkman was twice as valuable a player than Michael Young. But both are gone now and after watching them for all these years, they are going to be missed. Baseball goes on, but every so often, you lose players that have seemed to be with you forever. Michael Young and Lance Berkman were Texas baseball and it won't be the same without them. 

Brad Peacock could show bright colors

Curiosity is a wonderful thing. This time of year, like everyone else, I spend a lot of time looking at mlbtraderumors.com to see what is going on in the baseball world. A little blip about Brad Peacock in a recent post caught my eye and made me curious. The little blip said the following:

"Jason Collette of Fangraphs examined the transformation that Astros righty Brad Peacock made after being sent down to the minors midway through the 2013 campaign. Peacock adopted a slider that made a world of difference for his repertoire, and as Collette notes, the changes were obvious to GM Jeff Luhnow, manager Bo Porter and catcher Jason Castro."

I took my curiosity and went and poured over Peacock's numbers, particularly in the second half and found some pretty surprising things. I then read Jason' Collette's piece and came away with the conclusion that the Astros just may have gotten some value after all in Peacock as part of the trade with the Astros for Jed Lowrie. 

When you first arrive at Brad Peacock's player page at baseball-reference.com, 2013 was not a pretty sight. He made 18 appearances and 14 starts and it all led to zero rWAR, an ERA of 5.18, a WHIP of 1.380 and 1.6 homers per nine innings. There is no way to slant those numbers to make them pretty. According to Fangraphs.com, his RA9-WAR was -0.2. Ugh. 

It is only by going to the splits that you see what Collette, Luhnow, Porter and Castro were talking about. But let's go a little bit further back than last year and take a broader look at Peacock's history. 

Brad Peacock was born in Palm Beach, Florida, which is pretty cool because that is where my mom lives. He must not have been that highly touted a high school prospect because he ended up going to a community college in that same community. Scouts could not have rated him that highly there either because he was not drafted until the 41st round (by the Nationals) in the 2006 draft.

Peacock then spent four years trudging through the low minors in unspectacular fashion. And then he suddenly had this magical year in 2011 that saw him combine a 15-3 record with a 2.39 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. He got called up to the Nationals at the end of 2011 and went 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in 12 innings that included three appearances and two starts. A 17-3 season with those ERA numbers were impressive enough to rank him as the 37th top prospect before the 2012 season by Baseball America.

He was then traded to the Oakland A's as part of the deal that sent Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals. And his 2012 was not good at all. He spent the entire year in Triple-A in the PCL, a difficult place to pitch and everything fell apart. His ERA for the season topped six. His WHIP went over 1.5, his strikeouts dipped slightly and his walk rate rose.

Despite his bad season, the Astros, probably influenced by Kevin Goldstein, who was always high on him as Collette mentions, asked for him in the trade that sent Lowrie to the A's. Despite his poor Triple-A season, the Astros invited Peacock to Spring Training and he made the opening roster for 2013.

It could not have gone worse for Peacock in the early part of the 2013 season. He made five straight starts to open the season and lost three out of four decisions. His games scores for those starts (with 50 being average) were 51, 49, 47, 17, 26. He then was banished to the bullpen and made four outings more out there.

By the time he was sent down to the minors at the end of that run, his ERA was 8.07. His WHIP was 1.759. His strikeout to walk ratio was only 1.32. And he was getting hammered by homers. All batters combined to have an OPS against him of .998. Oy! It now seems obvious in hindsight that he was a pitch short of being a Major League pitcher.

The Astros did the right thing and sent him back down to the minors. And he was a pitch short, which he admitted as Collette mentioned in his article. The evidence is in his swing and miss rate. Even in his brief time with the Nationals in 2011, he only had eight swinging strikes in those twelve innings he pitched. And he only missed 26 bats in his first 138 batters he faced in 2013. 

According to Collette, Peacock discovered a slider down in the minors and he must have done so fairly quickly upon turning up there. He made fourteen appearances for Oklahoma City in the PCL and thirteen of those were starts. He went 6-2 with a 2.73 ERA. His WHIP was very good at 1.101 and his strikeout to walk ratio was 3.85. Something obvious had changed.

The Astros brought him back in early August and he came back with a bang (granted, it was against the Twins) and struck out ten batters in his first start back. His missed 13 bats in the outing. He had never before topped eight swinging strikes in his brief career.

August ended up a pretty good month for him. His ERA was still a bit high at 3.94. But his OPS against was a much better at .673.

What I really want to focus on is September. Brad Peacock was really good in September. His OPS against in four September starts was .622. His ERA in that month was 3.28 with a FIP of 2.80. His strikeout to walk ratio was 4.17 and his home run rate plummeted. Most impressively, his strike rate was over 64% in the month of September. 

If you look at his pitch type and at his PitchF/X totals, he did not throw a slider in the Majors until he returned from the minors in August. And yet that pitch was valued at 2.6 runs above average. He has found a real weapon to miss bats. As Collette mentions, he was more aggressive in the strike zone which allowed him to put away batters at a rate he had not achieved before (25%). 

Brad Peacock came back in August as a different pitcher. Now, two months do not make a career. I understand that. And we will have to see how he builds on it from here. But Brad Peacock is not getting any love from projections like Oliver and Steamer. But he could be a real sleeper and, if he stays healthy and does what he did at the end of 2013, could be a real good pitcher for the Astros in 2014. Remember his name because Brad Peacock could show bright colors in 2014.

Just another strange game at Minute Maid Park

The visiting Cincinnati Reds beat the Houston Astros in one strange and long game yesterday. It took the Reds five hours and eighteen minutes to do so. The game featured the coming out party, if you will, for Billy Hamilton who stole four bases in his first MLB start. Despite those four stolen bases and the fact that he was on base five times in the game, he scored only twice. That was the kind of game it was. Hamilton did, however, score the winning run.

The final score of 6-5 makes it sound like a high scoring game. The two teams combined to use fourteen pitchers. None of them were much to write home about. And yet, the score could have been ten runs or more higher.

For example, J.J. Hoover pitched an inning and a third. Of the 26 pitches he threw, only twelve were strikes. He did not give up a run. On the Astros' side, Josh Fields pitched an inning and threw 22 pitches and only six were strikes. He did not give up a run.

The two teams were a combined seven for 41 with runners in scoring position. That works out to a .170 average. The two teams combined for twenty walks in the game and 22 hits. There were also two wild pitches, an error and two hit batters. That is 45 combined base runners and only eleven of them scored. And this was despite the two teams combining for nine doubles and ten total extra base hits.

The two teams combined to strand 31 base runners. This despite the two teams' pitchers combining to throw only 57.6% strikes in the game.

Brandon Phillips did not have a good game at the dish. He went zero for seven with seven total runners left on base.

Ryan Ludwick had arguably a worse night. He went zero for six and left nine men on base all by himself. He did drive in one run with a sac fly.

Marc Krauss went hitless in the game (he did walk once) and stranded six runners all by his lonesome. He was the Astros' DH. The two designated hitters--a position meant solely for offense--combined to go zero for twelve with fifteen men left on base.

This was one strange game that had to be brutal to watch. Well, it would have been more brutal if not for the coming out party of Billy Hamilton. Just to wash out the bad taste of it all, I will leave you with the highlights of his steals. Enjoy.

Justin Maxwell dove into a face plant

Sing it with me now:

Justin Maxwell's silver hammer back to the DL was led.
Justin Maxwell's silver hammer just dove on his head.

The gif is from a redditor named knoll126 and from a tweet by @baseballreddit found here.

Two thoughts. First...ouch. Second, they should put some bubble wrap on this guy as he spends more time on the DL than most. 

Good players on bad teams - Jose Altuve

I thought I would start a little series on good players that play on really bad teams. The subject has always fascinated me. The ultimate example, of course, is Steve Carlton who won a Cy Young Award in 1972 by winning 27 games on a team that lost 97 games. Just to give you an idea of how much of an anomaly Carlton was that season, he went 27-10 that year. The rest of the starters went 19-68! Carlton was rewarded for his efforts. But usually, good players on bad teams are overlooked because nobody is paying attention to teams playing so poorly. Jose Altuve is one of those good players.

Altuve is not without some notoriety. Known as the shortest player in baseball, Altuve is generously listed as 5'5" and 175 pounds on his Baseball-reference.com player page. And perhaps most know him as one of the best players on a really bad team. But I think he is still overlooked a bit. His numbers from his first two seasons in 2011 and 2012 do not blow you away. But most will not consider that he was only 21 and 22 years old during those seasons. Now in his third year, at the age of 23, he is still improving.

And despite his team's 13-33 record thus far, Altuve is certainly a bright spot. According to Fangraphs.com's leaderboard, Altuve ranks tied for sixth of the 28 qualifying second basemen in the majors. That is pretty darned good. While it is too early to really tell, one of the biggest upturns for Altuve has been his fielding.

In 2012, both B-R and Fangraphs ranked his fielding pretty poorly. B-R had him at 18 runs below average and Fangraphs at 13.4 runs below. This season, Fangraphs has him at 4.3 runs above average and B-R gives him five above. Altuve has made only one error this season, has improved his double play ratings and is showing more range.

And for a guy his size and considering that he has little support and protection, he is a very good offensive player. Altuve should easily surpass 180 hits at his current pace with an outside chance at 200. He has always had a good line drive rate and was over 20% in that category in his first two seasons. That rate is at 25% this year. He hits a lot of ground balls and that rate is up this year too. But that is not necessarily a bad thing for a small, quick guy. He has a .296 average on ground balls, which is way above the league average.

The big thing to watch for this season for Altuve is how he holds up during the season. Last year, his OPS for each month dropped every single month of the season. His OPS in the second half last year was 87 points lower than his first half. Like last year, Altuve is off to a good start. It will be interesting to see if he can hold up better than he did in his first full season a year ago.

I would not call Jose Altuve a superstar or even a great player. But he is a very good player who can do some things offensively, is playing better defense, will get his 30+ doubles, steal some bases and be an above average base runner.

Altuve is a very good player on a very bad team. That is a shame. He would get a lot more attention and be appreciated a bit more if his team did not guarantee that his efforts would be obscured by the mediocrity around him.

The Astros first round pick castoff club

The projections for 2013 for the Houston Astros are all pretty grim. And that is understandable considering the team lost 107 games in 2012, have to switch leagues in 2013 and have a projected 2013 payroll of $14.6 million. Baseball Prospectus expects the team to lose 97 games in 2013. And any kind of optimism for the Astros to surprise anyone in the coming year would be supremely "pie-in-the-sky." But the second-year Astros' GM, Jeff Luhnow has done something fairly interesting in compiling a team with a starting lineup that will feature no less than five former first round picks and the rotation will feature one starter who was once the third overall pick in the country. What if two or three or four of those former first round picks were to suddenly recall that kind of promise?

Yeah, it probably won't happen. Most of them were given up on by their original drafting teams, which means something because you don't easily give up on a first round pick simply because of the money involved and the emphasis placed on their development. Even so, it is always fun to dream. Maybe a couple of the castoffs can find the star brilliance that garnered them that kind of pick placement in the first place. Let's take a look at who they are.

Carlos Pena

Well, yeah, Pena doesn't really fit the profile here. The guy has already logged twelve years in the big leagues and his first round pick (Texas) was way back in 1998. Pena is pretty much a known commodity. As a DH and occasional first baseman, he is going to strike out thirty percent of the time, walk thirteen to fifteen percent of the time and hit in the low .200s (if that). But he can still hit 20 to 25 homers and give the Astros an on-base percentage over .320 no matter how badly he hits. And that is worth something at least for a team like the Astros. Pena is going to be 35 in May, but who knows, he could have one more decent season in him.

Brett Wallace

Wallace was the thirteenth pick overall (Cardinals) in the 2008 draft and is already with his fourth organization. He mashed at every level in the minors (.307/.381/.491). But he hasn't hit his stride with the Astros in parts of three seasons and has only compiled an OPS of .699 (.304 wOBA) in 792 plate appearances. Unlike Pena, Wallace can hold his own against left-handed pitching though he does not walk as often against them. The problem with Wallace is that even if he can still put it together as a batter, his glove is fairly catatonic. It would almost seem that Pena would be a better option at first base to let Wallace DH, but Pena is a short-term option whereas the Astros hope Wallace becomes a big Major League hitter long-term. Projection systems see him progressing in the power department with a little fewer strikeouts and a few more walks. And they grant that his fielding will improve marginally.

Jason Castro

Castro is not a castoff as he was drafted by the Astros as the tenth overall pick in the 2008 draft. In parts of two seasons with the Astros, the catcher has not shown the promise as of yet that he can become a top flight catcher in the majors. But part of that problem can also be attributed to some pretty severe injury problems involving his knee and his foot in that time frame. He is having a monster spring this year if that can be taken with any kind of optimism. His minor league career showed very good patience at the plate and much better defense than he has shown in the majors thus far. Projections for 2013 are soft and perhaps justifiably so. But Castro is going to get the opportunity to be the starting catcher this season and if he is healthy, could be one of the nicer surprises of 2013. I am going to keep an eye on him optimistically.

Matt Dominguez

Dominguez was cast off by the now Miami Marlins  for Carlos Lee. The Marlins may live to regret that trade. Just add it to that team's pile of trash legacy for the last year. Dominguez can become a star that befitted his tenth overall selection in the 2007 draft. The third baseman is still only 23 years old and is hampered somewhat by a lack of patience at the plate. But that is combined with a low swing and miss rate and a fairly good strikeout rate considering. If he can be more selective and not swing at 33% of the pitches out of the strike zone, he could be quite good. The projections aren't buying it, of course. But he, at least, is one of the few players that ZiPS at least predicts will be league average for the Astros in 2013. I think he can be much better if his fielding improves (league average right now) and he gets in the lineup for 150 games. Thus far, he has hit too many ground balls in his brief Major League career and that probably stems from his lack of selectivity at the plate. His home run to fly ball rate was 20% in a small sample size. So, if he hits the ball in the air a bit more, he can hit 20 homers or way above projections.

Tyler Greene

Perhaps no player has ever engendered more arguments by Cardinal fans over the years than Tyler Greene. The Cardinals drafted him in the first round of the 2005 draft and then never really gave him a chance to be their shortstop. When he did get calls to the big club, they moved him all around the field--so much so that he has played seven different positions in his 266 games played. Greene had good hitting numbers in the minors, especially for a shortstop. But, whether because he is over-matched in the majors or because of a lack of a true shot at playing regularly, his hitting has never gelled in the majors. His .292 career on-base percentage is fairly pathetic. His fielding metrics are equally troubling. But then again, how much of that was from being bounced around and knowing he wasn't going to really get a shot with the Cardinals? He is going to get that shot with the Astros, especially now with Lowrie gone to the A's. At the age of 29 now, this will be a make or break year for Greene.

Philip Humber

Philip Humber was the third overall pick (Mets) in the 2004 draft. After a long and winding road, he became a surprisingly decent pitcher for the White Sox in 2011. Then he started the 2012 season well and in his second start of the 2012 season, threw a perfect game. You go, Philip Humber! Well, not exactly. The wheels came off after the perfect game and his season went to hell in a hand-basket. The final numbers were ugly: A 6.44 ERA with a 5.77 FIP, a 1.539 WHIP and a 2.0 homer per nine rate. Woof, that is some stinky pitching. His ground ball rate tumbled and everything else fell apart. But Humber is pitching well this spring for the Astros so maybe he can bounce back to his 2011 form, which is certainly going to improve on the Jordan Lyles of the world.

Six former first round draft picks. Six possibilities to live up to that long lost hype. Of the six, Matt Dominguez and Jason Castro can be special. Tyler Greene could be a middle of the pack shortstop. Stranger things have happened. If it does, it still won't make the Astros a great team. But they could be a heck of a lot more entertaining than last season.