Enjoying Casey McGehee...for now

If you have read my stuff for a while, you know that I am a sucker for the comeback story. I love the improbable when a guy falls out of baseball only to come back a year or more later and have some success. There has been Vogelsong in the past and this year the Sizemore story in Boston. Another one that might not be as much in the news is what Casey McGehee is doing down in Miami. After two terrible seasons left him out in the cold and forced him to Japan, McGehee is back and looking great for the Marlins.

The question, of course, is how long it will last. After all, two years of history are hard to erase. In 2011 and 2012, McGehee came to the plate 952 times and compiled an fWAR for the two seasons of -0.3 to go along with wOBAs of .275 and .283. Those are pretty ugly seasons. After two such seasons, nobody wanted him and he went to Japan for a year.

And he did really well in Japan. He put up a .891 OPS in Japan in 144 games and had a season very reminiscent of his 2010 season for the Brewers. But it is easy to dismiss such success as we all wink and say the competition and the pitching is not as consistently strong in Japan as it is here in the Major Leagues.

But perhaps he found something. Perhaps he got his stroke or confidence back or both. I noticed that he got an invite to the Marlins this season and did not think much of it. He had a decent spring for that club but nothing special. But here he is fifteen games into the season, and yes, it is a small sample size, but he is hitting .309 with a very healthy .381 on-base percentage. He has not hit a homer yet, but he has five doubles and a triple and currently has a wOBA of .358. Good on him!

The question, of course, is if it will last. The odds seem to be against it. For one thing, his current BABIP is .395 which is way high and speaks to a bit of good fortune so far. Are there any indications that his success can continue? There are a couple.

First, his plate discipline thus far is much improved over any time in his previous MLB incarnation. He has a career 7.8% walk rate and thus far is walking at an 11.1% clip. And the PitchF/X data seems to indicate that is not a fluke.

While McGehee always was pretty good at laying off the pitch out of the strike zone (25.5% for his career), he is very good in that area this year at 21.4%. Therefore he is being more selective at the plate than at any time in his career. Confidence in his ability has a lot to do with that and these numbers are encouraging.

The second encouraging thing is that he seems to be a different hitter if you look at his batted balls. In his two terrible seasons, his line drive percentages were pretty awful at 16.2% and 15.5% respectively. And his career line drive percentage is only 17.5%. But this year (so far), line drives are whistling off his bat.

His current 2014 line drive percentage is 23.3%. If you hit a lot of line drives, good things are going to happen and a healthy BABIP should occur. Perhaps not as healthy as .395, but healthy nonetheless. The drawback to the line drives is that he has the lowest fly ball percentage of his career, which will cut into his normal power numbers some.

But with a big home park like the Marlins play in Miami, hitting a lot of fly balls would probably not be a really good thing and line drives would be more suitable. I still think he will hit double-digit homers. He always has, even in his two terrible seasons he hit 22 of them.

Casey McGehee has been a nice story thus far and has tickled my comeback radar nicely. I don't believe he will do quite as well as he is doing now. But if he hits .270 with a .340 on-base percentage or higher, it will be a resurrection of sorts for a career that seemed to have ended with a thud after the 2012 season.

Best and Worst Base Runners of 2011

Steve Slowinski, Editor-in-Chief of DRaysBay.com who also has his own site (as well as writing for SB Nation and Fangraphs!) was kind enough over on Twitter last night (@SteveSlow) to explain to this old writer how to find base running stats over at FanGraphs.com. And it was fun to look at the leaders and losers in this category in Major League Baseball. As many have pointed out, with runs per game down in the past couple of years, there is more emphasis on base running as a means of scoring runs.

It turns out that quantifying base running is far more difficult than it sounds. There are stolen bases and stolen base percentage. There are bases taken on hits (such as stretching a single into a double, etc.). There are base running events when on base (going from first to third on a single) and there is moving up a base on passed balls and wild pitches. That's complicated! This amateur won't even begin to try to explain all that. Fortunately, in this day and age of stats at our fingertips, others do that for us. All we have to do is know how to search and sort.

First up is your best base runners so far in 2011 along with their base running score as listed by Fangraphs:

1. Michael Bourn (Astros): Bourn is considered by many to be the fastest player in the majors. It would be fun to see Bourn in a race with Peter Bourjous, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner. Score: 4.7.
2. Elvis Andrus (Rangers): Andrus is very aggressive on the base paths and it works more often than not. Score 4.7.
3. Alex Rios (White Sox): Rios is having a bad season. His WAR currently sits at -0.5. But he's still excelling on the base paths. And he must be really good on the bases as he only has six stolen bases. Score: 3.8
4. Melky Cabrera (Royals): Another surprise. Add this up to the surprising season he is already having. His base running adds a lot to his WAR tally. Score: 3.5
5. Drew Stubbs (Reds): His base running score really points out how much better a player he would be if he could cut down his strikeouts. His K's lead the National League. Score: 3.4
6. Alex Gordon (Royals): We should call them the "Runnin' Royals" as Gordon is the second Royal on this list. Score: 3.4
7. Curtis Granderson (Yankees): Granderson is not only hitting the snot out of the ball but he is using his speed and base running skills to have one of the best all around games in baseball this season. Score: 3.4

It's surprising that Jose Reyes isn't higher on this list. He sits at 18th in the majors despite all those triples and stolen bases. Peter Bourjos, who can flat out fly is 15th. And Brett Gardner is 28th, a ranking that bespeaks those who say he is too tentative on the base paths at times.

The other thing to note is that, other than Granderson, the walk percentage for the other six guys on this list are all less than nine percent. In Cabrera and Andrus' cases, both are under six percent. If only these guys could walk more, imagine what damage they could do!

And now for the worst base runners of 2011:

1. Paul Konerko (White Sox): While Konerko's offensive numbers are overlooked in baseball, he is a really bad base runner and is rated far and above all others in base running ineptitude. Since he's also not a good fielder, his WAR is never as high as you would think it should be. Score: -7.3
2. Casey McGehee (Brewers): McGehee's stock as a player has really taken a hit this season. While he is trying to pull every pitch, his average, on base percentage and slugging have all taken hits. Plus, he's a lousy base runner. Score: -4.7
3. Brett Wallace (Astros): Wallace is hitting well and getting on base well. His power numbers are unexpectedly low. But he's a lousy fielder and a lousy base runner. Score: -3.8
4. Bobby Abreu (Angels): The Fan doesn't get this one. Abreu always steals bases, even now that he's 86 years old, he steals bases. But he must not do anything else well on the base paths. Score: -3.7
5. Aramis Ramirez (Cubs): Ramirez is hitting better lately. But his base running is substandard. Score: -3.6

Some other surprisingly bad base runners: Nick Swisher (-3.2), Andre Ethier (-3.2) and Austin Jackson (-2.7). That gives Jackson the trifecta for why he shouldn't be leading off. He's not a good base runner, he doesn't get on base and he strikes out too much.

The worst base runner last year was Adam LaRoche, who had a score of -8.4. Konerko is certainly in line to better (?) that score. Elvis Andrus was the best base runner of 2011 with a score of 8.2. Paul Konerko is the worst base runner for the last five years (2006 to present) with a scary score of -32.3, a full seven points worse than Prince Fielder. Chone Figgins has the best base running score over the last five years at 31.8 followed by Juan Pierre at 24.9.

National League Rookie of the Year

With the end in sight for the regular season, it's usually common to start speculating about the award season. The MVPs for each league seem pretty much set with Mauer and Pujols. The AL Cy Young should go to Greinke. The NL Cy Young still seems a bit hazy. For Rookie of the Year, there are no runaway performers and the debate will rage between pitchers and position players. For this post, let's see if we can get a hard statistical eye on the rookies this year.

For position players, the field seems to narrow down to Chris Coghlan, Andrew McCutchen, Dexter Fowler and Casey McGehee. For pitchers, the only three worth boiling down to are J. A. Happ, Randy Wells and Tommy Hanson.

Let's start with the position players. The Fan will list each player followed by some stats. The stats will be OBP, OPS, OPS+, Stolen Bases, UZR (a fielding stat), WAR (worth over replacement) and FanGraph's dollar value:

Chris Coghlan: .389 .835 121 7 (in 11 attempts) -12.8 1.8 $8.2 million
Andrew McCutchen: .358 .831 122 17 (in 21 attempts) -0.4 3.1 $13.8 million
Dexter Fowler: .366 .773 99 27 (in 37 attempts) -12.6 0.8 $3.4 million
Casey McGehee: .364 .867 126 0 (in 2 attempts) -5 2.1 $9.4 million

Comments: The numbers seem to exclude Fowler. Coghlan and McCutchen both lead off for their teams. As such, Coghlan has the superior On Base Percentage, which is what you want from the lead off guy. McCutchen does more once he is on the bases. Coghlan had never played outfield before this season and his terrible UZR is explained that way. McGehee out slugs his competition and as such is a valuable middle of the line up kind of guy.

For the pitchers, the stats will be ERA+, WHIP, FIP, Batting Average Against, K/BB ratio, K9, H9 (homers per nine innings), Wins, WAR and value.

J. A. Happ: 154 1.200 4.22 .236 2.07 6.4 1.0 12 1.8 $8.1
Randy Wells: 138 1.307 4.02 .266 2.09 5.34 0.8 11 2.6 $11.9
Tommy Hanson: 140 1.193 3.57 .229 2.43 8.0 0.7 11 2.3 $10.5

Comments: Happ and Wells have significantly more innings pitched than Hanson which is a factor in Hanson's value.

Final verdict: Of all the players we evaluated in the National League, McCutchen has the highest value according to FanGraphs. The problem for the Fan in selecting him is the OBP for a lead off guy. All three pitchers have been outstanding. Happ's ERA+ is so much higher than the other two. But in the end, Hanson has better overall stats across the board. More strike outs per nine, less homers per nine, lower FIP, lower batting average against, lower homer per nine, higher K/9 and K/BB and the lowest WHIP. Plus, Hanson has been a stud down the stretch for the Braves.

The Fan's choice: Tommy Hanson

We'll look at the American League in the next post.