Whining Works

This Fan was whining yesterday that the trade deadline had been boring as all get out. Like a kid that gets the cookie because he's good at whining, today brought the Fan some cookies with one big deadline trade and a couple of other deals. Let's start with the biggie.

The Phillies always seem to get what they need when they need it. Last year it was Lee. Then in the off season, they flipped Lee for Halladay. Now they've added Roy Oswalt to an already talented team that has won a huge bunch of games of late. And those wily Phillies gave up very little to get Oswalt too. J. A. Happ had a great season last season. But his underlying statistics showed it to be a fluky kind of success. This year Happ has had some injury problems but he is the guy going to the Astros. The Astros also received two minor league outfielders that seem more speculative than superlative. The Astros then flipped one of those guys to Toronto for Brett Wallace, a thumper of a first baseman who isn't much of a fielder. At least the Astros can replace one thumping, can't field first basemen for another next year when Berkman walks.

The Astros are also giving the Phillies a huge pile of money which makes this deal all the sweeter for the Phillies. They get Roy Oswalt the rest of this year and next year for about half of what he is worth on the open market due to the Astros ante.

The only concern this writer has about this deal is Oswalt's history of back ailments. He isn't exactly young and though he has proved he can still pitch, the Phillies better keep their fingers crossed. But the Fan told you a month ago to not count the Phillies out and they are closing on the Braves rather quickly.

The other two moves weren't nearly as glamorous as the Oswalt deal. The Orioles sent perjury specialist, Miguel Tejada, to the Padres for a hard-throwing semi-prospect. Tejada isn't anywhere near the player he was, but for the offense-stressed Padres, he'll help them. Look for Tejada to get a second wind in San Diego.

The other deal helps the Rangers since they acquired Jorge Cantu from the Marlins for two minor league pitchers. Those two prospects, Evan Reed and Omar Poveda, were the two best prospects traded this week and could develop into very good pitchers for the Marlins. Considering that Cantu is a free agent at the end of the season and is no more than a rental, the Rangers have exposed themselves as being all in to win this year. Cantu is not having a good year at the plate and is down in all of his numbers compared to his career. But if he bounces back for the Rangers to his career levels, he could help them, especially at first and a fill in for Kinsler at second until the second baseman returns. Cantu will never wow you, but he is only 28 and is a decent hitter.

Thursday was a lot more fun than the rest of the week. Will anything else happen to surprise us tomorrow?

National League Rookie of the Year

With the end in sight for the regular season, it's usually common to start speculating about the award season. The MVPs for each league seem pretty much set with Mauer and Pujols. The AL Cy Young should go to Greinke. The NL Cy Young still seems a bit hazy. For Rookie of the Year, there are no runaway performers and the debate will rage between pitchers and position players. For this post, let's see if we can get a hard statistical eye on the rookies this year.

For position players, the field seems to narrow down to Chris Coghlan, Andrew McCutchen, Dexter Fowler and Casey McGehee. For pitchers, the only three worth boiling down to are J. A. Happ, Randy Wells and Tommy Hanson.

Let's start with the position players. The Fan will list each player followed by some stats. The stats will be OBP, OPS, OPS+, Stolen Bases, UZR (a fielding stat), WAR (worth over replacement) and FanGraph's dollar value:

Chris Coghlan: .389 .835 121 7 (in 11 attempts) -12.8 1.8 $8.2 million
Andrew McCutchen: .358 .831 122 17 (in 21 attempts) -0.4 3.1 $13.8 million
Dexter Fowler: .366 .773 99 27 (in 37 attempts) -12.6 0.8 $3.4 million
Casey McGehee: .364 .867 126 0 (in 2 attempts) -5 2.1 $9.4 million

Comments: The numbers seem to exclude Fowler. Coghlan and McCutchen both lead off for their teams. As such, Coghlan has the superior On Base Percentage, which is what you want from the lead off guy. McCutchen does more once he is on the bases. Coghlan had never played outfield before this season and his terrible UZR is explained that way. McGehee out slugs his competition and as such is a valuable middle of the line up kind of guy.

For the pitchers, the stats will be ERA+, WHIP, FIP, Batting Average Against, K/BB ratio, K9, H9 (homers per nine innings), Wins, WAR and value.

J. A. Happ: 154 1.200 4.22 .236 2.07 6.4 1.0 12 1.8 $8.1
Randy Wells: 138 1.307 4.02 .266 2.09 5.34 0.8 11 2.6 $11.9
Tommy Hanson: 140 1.193 3.57 .229 2.43 8.0 0.7 11 2.3 $10.5

Comments: Happ and Wells have significantly more innings pitched than Hanson which is a factor in Hanson's value.

Final verdict: Of all the players we evaluated in the National League, McCutchen has the highest value according to FanGraphs. The problem for the Fan in selecting him is the OBP for a lead off guy. All three pitchers have been outstanding. Happ's ERA+ is so much higher than the other two. But in the end, Hanson has better overall stats across the board. More strike outs per nine, less homers per nine, lower FIP, lower batting average against, lower homer per nine, higher K/9 and K/BB and the lowest WHIP. Plus, Hanson has been a stud down the stretch for the Braves.

The Fan's choice: Tommy Hanson

We'll look at the American League in the next post.