MLB Game Picks - Sunday: June 16, 2013 with special guests!

This is a very cool day. First, the sun is shining and golf should be fun for a change. Secondly, I finally had a good night last night after having the worst picking week of my career. And lastly, and most importantly, I have special guests to challenge me for the picks. Let me set up how this came about.

It is no secret that I have been on an alarming bender with the picks. Nothing has gone right and May and particularly June have been terrible. This past week, in my frustration, when I promoted my newest picks post on Twitter, I wrote: "A 5 year old could do better right now." Cardinal writer extraordinaire, Daniel Shoptaw (@C70), tweeted back, "Sounds like a great idea. Pick a day and I'll have my kids pick games, we'll compare them to yours."

And so we communicated and Benjamin Shoptaw (8 1/2), Sarah Shoptaw (just turned six) and dad (ancient) all submitted picks for today's games. I will list them after my picks (so I am not influenced

by them) and then tomorrow, I will tally them all up. Many thanks to Daniel for making this happen!

My Sunday's picks:

• The Indians over the Nationals: Stephen Strasburg returns for the Nationals, and while that is exciting, he will probably only pitch five innings or so. Meanwhile, Corey Kluber has been very good with great outings against the Red Sox, Rangers, etc. Both pitchers can throw zeroes but the Indians win late.
• The Cubs over the Mets: The Cubs have had their way all weekend in this series. Matt Garza should bounce back from his last outing to get back on the trade deadline lists. Jeremy Hefner has been better of late, but even if he is good, the Mets cannot score.
• The Reds over the Brewers: The Brewers kicked the Reds yesterday and it was one of only four bad picks all day. I do not think that will happen today since Johnny Cueto is on the mound for the Reds and should be better than Wily Peralta.
• The Cardinals over the Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton has been hot since coming back, but I anticipate this game to go much like yesterday's where the Cards score double digits so it does not matter how many the Marlins score. Tyler Lyons has not fared well lately and Ricky Nolasco is pitching with scouts in the stats for those deadline deals.
• The Orioles over the Red Sox: The Orioles have dominated the Red Sox ever since September of 2011. The Red Sox got off that ride a little bit yesterday behind John Lackey. Today is Jon Lester's turn and while I believe in Lester's talent, he has been shaky lately and Miguel Gonzalez has had good success against the Red Sox and all AL East teams.
• The Pirates over the Dodgers: Gerrit Cole's MLB debut in his last outing was successful and the Pirates are playing really well. Zack Greinke could slow them down. But the pick is for the Pirates to continue to dominate this series.
• The Rays over the Royals: There are several reasons I am picking the Rays but Ramon Hernandez is not one of them. So do not think I have gone to the dark side on my feelings for him. I have not become Faustus (or Fausto). The Royals are moribund. Wade Davis is the Royals' version of Phil Hughes and the Rays are at home.
• The Astros over the White Sox: I have picked against the Astros this entire series and have been burned by it. Do you realize that the White Sox only have three more wins this season than the Astros? Yeah, that is bad. Dallas Keuchel over Hector Santiago.
• The Tigers over the Twins: This is a double-reverse pick. The Tigers should win all of these games. But they have not won any of them. P.J. Walters has done nothing but win lately. Doug Fister has done nothing but lose lately. So I am still reversing all of that logic to pick the Tigers to win. Baseball is a funny game.
• The Blue Jays over the Rangers: You never know if Derek Holland is going to throw a gem or a booby trap. His left-hand throwing will not bother guys like Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. But the Jays need a good start from Chien-Ming Wang for this to happen.
• The Angels over the Yankees: The Yankees' offense is painful to watch. Ichiro Suzuki is playing his heart out and gets on third with no outs after a bunt single and two stolen bases. The next three Yankee batters struck out. That, friends, is the epitome of the Yankees' offense right now. Jerek Weaver over CC Sabathia.
• The Mariners over the Athletics: This is a tough, tough pick. I have had success all season picking Hisashi Iwakuma to win. I have had great horrors all season picking Bartolo Colon to lose (he is 8-2). So which truth today will hold more evident? Yikes!
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: The only place that Clayton Richard can pitch halfway decent is at home, which he is. But Ian Kennedy as a fly ball pitcher should also pitch well at Petco. Going with the D-backs despite the loss yesterday.
• The Phillies over the Rockies: Who the heck knows. Cole Hamels is 2-9. The world is upside down. Jhoulys Chacin is as confusing as ever. Coors Field is the ultimate wild card. All I can do is pick a winner and hope.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Braves over the Giants: This is also the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game. And so, it will be interesting. Julio Teheran might melt in the spotlight. But it is more likely that the Braves will hit some dingers off of Tim Lincecum or that the formerly long-haired and formerly great pitcher will have no control and get in trouble that way.

Yesterday: 11-4  Well, what do you know!?

Last week: 42-52   Was beyond saving.

Month: 100-102

Season: 563-452

Games of the Day: 44-30

And now the Shoptaw picks:

Why You Have to Root for Chien-Ming Wang

Wait. That heading sounds way too much like a command. You don't have to root for Chien-Ming Wang. Perhaps the truth of the matter is that this writer has to root for Chien-Ming Wang. You might have heard that he recently signed with the Washington Nationals for another season for $4 million. It's a rather small and safe investment on the Nationals' part and from the sounds of things, it's where Wang wanted to be because he was grateful that the Nationals stuck with him through his long injury ordeal. And that's just one reason to root for Wang to succeed. Actually, that's two in one. Before this gets too confusing, perhaps the best way to get these thoughts out are in list form. Therefore, in no particular order, here's why this writer roots for Chien-Ming Wang.

1. The Fan is a sucker for a comeback story. Wang was heading for his typical season for the Yankees in 2008. Perhaps he was heading for his best season yet after winning nineteen games for two years in a row in 2006 and 2007. He was 7-2 after a seven inning gem against the Oakland A's on June 10, 2008. The Yankees moved into interleague play after the Oakland series and headed to Houston to play the Astros in a National League park. That meant that pitchers had to hit. Chien-Ming Wang squared up against the Astros' best pitcher, Roy Oswalt, on June 15. Wang struck out on his first two at bats. But the Yankees had built a 3-0 lead on Oswalt heading into the sixth inning. Wang had thrown five shutout innings. Those were the last five innings he pitched in 2008.

In the top of the sixth inning on that day in June, Jorge Posada and Robinson Cano had led off the inning with singles. After a fly out, Wang was asked to bunt. His bunt wasn't exceptional and Posada was thrown out at third. Unfortunately, that left Wang on first base. Johnny Damon hit a ground ball and Wang ran hard to second and again, unfortunately, the shortstop made an error and everybody was safe. Wang was on second and the bases were full when Derek Jeter came to the plate. Jeter hit a single. Cano scored and Wang scored behind him. In the process, Wang blew out a tire and that injury effectively killed his season. George Steinbrenner, in the last acts of his bluster, blasted baseball for making pitchers hit in interleague games (a point which gets an agreement from this observer). Wang got the win for the game and he finished the season at 8-2.

Jump forward to the spring of 2009. You could tell right from the beginning that Wang wasn't right after missing the last half of the 2008 season. On April 8, 2009, Wang made his season debut and gave up seven runs on twelve base runners in three and two-thirds innings. Five days later, he lasted an inning and gave up nine base runners and eight runs. Five days later, the same thing happened: one and a third innings and eight runs. After three starts, his ERA was 34.50. The Yankees pulled the plug. They tried to pitch him at various times during the year and after all was said and done, he pitched twelve times including nine starts and finished 1-6 with an ERA of 9.64. To anyone who had eyes to see, there was something clearly wrong with Chien-Ming Wang. The problem was his shoulder and a July 30 operation ended his 2009 season.

At the end of the 2009 season, the Yankees, despite winning the World Series that season, had little charity in their heart for a pitcher that had pitched so well for them for two full seasons and two partial seasons. In the dynastic world of Yankee baseball, winning is all that matters and Wang was jettisoned. The Nationals signed Wang to a free agent contract, but Wang was simply not ready and after much speculation, the Nationals finally announced that he would miss the entire 2010 season. And that leads us to reason Number 2.

2. The Nationals could have washed their hands of Chien-Ming Wang after getting nothing for their money in 2010. Yes, they non-tendered him, but then signed him to a one year contract for less money than the previous contract and he started the 2011 season on a formal rehab assignment. Kudos to the Nationals for sticking with the pitcher and giving him another chance. The move was not altogether altruistic. After all, Wang was a winner in his Yankee years and if he could get somewhat back to what he used to be, he could be useful.

To be honest, the Fan followed Wang during his minor league rehab starts and the results were mixed. But the Nationals were seeing a return of Wang's velocity and were convinced he was ready for major league action. Wang made his first major league start for the Nationals on July 29. He missed by a day starting on his two year anniversary of his shoulder surgery. And this Fan remembers how many naysayers there were on Twitter especially when people found out Wang was going to start a big league game. The naysayers sure sounded like soothsayers in Wang's first two starts, both losses. In those first two starts, Wang pitched a total of nine innings and gave up twelve runs, six of them earned on fifteen hits (one a homer), two walks and two strikeouts. The comeback story looked like a failure. But then we get to reason Number 3.

3. Things picked up with his third start of the season. He blanked the Cubs for six innings to get his first win. Then he pitched six more innings and gave up four runs against the Reds but got his second win. Wang's next five starts were uneven and he lost one of them and received four no-decisions. They weren't great starts. But Wang closed out his season with two straight wins, the last one a six-inning, one-run performance against the Braves on September 24 that did considerable damage to their wild card hopes.

In total for 2011, Wang made eleven starts, finished with a positive 4-3 record and a respectable 4.04 ERA. Wang finished his sixth season in the majors with his fifth winning record. But the thing about Wang is that he doesn't strike out anyone. He finished 2011 with a paltry sum of 3.61 strikeouts per nine innings. This isn't extraordinary for Wang. The two years he won nineteen games for the Yankees, his K/9 rates were 3.14 and 4.70 respectively. Wang has only had one season (his aborted 2008 season) where his FIP was lower than his actual ERA. And that leads us to reason Number 4 to root for Chien-Ming Wang.

4. Wang is the anti-analyses pitcher. He defies all the definitions we currently have for what a pitcher is supposed to be to be effective in the major leagues. Don't get the Fan wrong. This writer loves these newfangled statistics as much as anyone (perhaps more than most). But isn't it cool to have one guy who defies all that logic? Besides Chien-Ming Wang, name one other pitcher in the last fifty years who has logged more than 110 big league starts, has a winning percentage north of .600 and a strikeout per nine rate for his career less than 4.2. Go on, the Fan will wait. Think of one? Give up? There isn't any. Chien-Ming Wang has made 111 career starts, has a winning percentage of .670 (!) and yet has a career K/9 rate of 4.17. There has never been anyone like him in the last fifty years.

Since his debut in 2006, with a minimum of 700 innings pitched, only three other pitchers have a higher ground ball percentage than Wang. They are Brandon Webb, Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson. But Webb struck out 7.26 batters per nine, Lowe, 5.94 and Hudson, 6.11. Wang doesn't come close to any of those guys. He is an anomaly. You have to go all the way back to the 1950s to find anyone like him (Bob Lemon and Eddie Lopat) with that kind of winning percentage despite that low a K/9.

Put it all together and this Fan has four big reasons for rooting for Chien-Ming Wang. First, he's on the comeback trail. Second, he's signed out of loyalty to a team that has treated him far better than the Yankees did. Third, he had a somewhat successful comeback. And lastly, his success defies all the logic today's valuation stats have for a successful pitcher. No, this writer isn't coming up with some sort of, "he just knows how to win," stuff and no, this writer isn't dumb enough not to understand that run support has a lot to do with his success. But still. It sure is fun to see how long he can keep it going. This Fan of major league baseball hopes Chien-Ming Wang wins nineteen games again this season. Wouldn't that be a gas?

Three Cheers for Revivals!

We as a people are captivated by revival stories. Whether it be Lazarus rising from the dead or an old actor getting one last great part and an Oscar nomination, we love to root for someone making it back from the trash heap of history. Last night we had several of those kinds of stories. There was the Chien-Ming Wang start for the Washington Nationals. Dontrelle Willis pitched eight strong innings for the Reds (and got another hit). Micah Owings pitched three strong innings with four strikeouts and raised his record to 6-0 with a 2.58 ERA (he got a hit and scored a run too). Jason Isringhousen recorded his sixth save after most people thought his career was over. And LaTroy Hawkins picked up a win for his eighth different team in his eleven year career. If you like back from the dead stories, they were like shooting stars last night.

Let's start with Chien-Ming Wang. Wang won nineteen games for the Yankees in both 2006 and 2007. He was heading for his third straight very good season in 2008 as he was 8-2 after fifteen starts. But he blew out a wheel running the bases during an interleague game (leading to one of the last bombastic outbursts from George Steinbrenner). Wang missed the rest of that season. The pitcher tried to come back in 2009 but he wasn't right and took a bunch of serious lickings before mercifully being shut down. He did make a few more appearances later in the year in relief, but he wasn't right.

After a pitcher wins 55 games in only 95 starts for the Yankees (good for a winning percentage close to .700), you would think the Yankees would give him a chance to work it out. But he was cut loose faster than an undersized fish and he signed with the Nationals. But his leg problems led to shoulder problems and he missed the entire 2010 season. After not earning a dime of his 2010 salary, you would understand if the Nationals would have followed the Yankees' lead and dumped him too. But they didn't. They signed him this year--granted, for a lot less money--and gave him a chance to work his way back.

And he did make it back to the majors and made his first start for the Nationals on July 29. It didn't go well. He gave up six runs with nine base runners in only four innings and lost. He next started August 3 against the Braves and it went little better. He lasted five innings in that game and gave up eight base runners and six runs again (though only two of them were earned). And then came his gem on Tuesday night.

Wang pitched six full innings. He carried a no hitter through five and gave up only one hit and two walks through six. One of those three base runners was erased by a double play. Two things were encouraging about that start. The first is that Wang was throwing his sinker at 92, or just one MPH less than his heydays with the Yankees. The second was that he induced eleven ground balls compared to just four fly balls. That was vintage Chien-Ming Wang.

It will remain to be seen whether Wang can build from that game (after all, it was against the Cubs). But those of us who root for dead-risings will be watching.

Next, we come to Dontrelle Willis. One frustrated Reds' fan said on Twitter that Willis was just good enough to lose. This observer thinks that statement was unfair (though understandable from a rabid fan's point of view). Yes, Willis is now 0-2 in his six starts since returning from the dead. But in those six starts, he's given up runs in the following order: 2, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3. Wouldn't you take that from any starting pitcher? The big thing for Willis is that he is throwing strikes. His 2.6 walks per nine is his best since his halcyon days of 2005. The D-Train is back on the tracks.

Let's face it: Micah Owings has never been a very good pitcher. Oh, he had a decent rookie season for the Diamondbacks in 2007 when he became a fan favorite in that market. But his 8-8 record and 111 ERA+ were deceiving and a bit lucky. He actually had a similar season in 2008 but was less lucky and his ERA ballooned.  Obviously the Diamondbacks didn't think that highly of him as he was the old "Player to be Named Later" in the Adam Dunn deal that sent the slugger to the Diamondbacks and Owings to the Reds.

Owings had two disastrous years for the Reds. His walk rate ballooned, which isn't a good thing for a guy prone to giving up homers. His WHIP was over 1.5 both years for the Reds and 2010 gave him three straight years of ERA+ in the 70s. The only startling feature about Owings was his ability to hit. In 215 big league plate appearances, Owings has a .512 slugging percentage and a career OPS+ of 110! He's hit nine homers in his career. But even that part of his game fell off with the Reds in 2010.

It was no surprise when the Reds non-tendered him after the season. Owings caught back on with the Diamondbacks and started the season in Triple A. But he's now made twenty appearances including four starts and has picked up a habit of scooping up those vulture wins. His 2.68 ERA is misleading as heck as his FIP is over four and batters are only hitting .228 with balls in play. Owings has also stranded 83% of his base runners. Those are unsustainable numbers. But still, we can include Owings in the back from the dead column and hope his luck continues. As long as he is in the big leagues, we get the thrill of his offense as a pitcher.

Jason Isringhausen is 38 years old. He's made 667 appearances in his career but made none last year and only nine the year before that. And here he is in 2011, back from the dead for the New York Mets. Isringhausen has made 46 appearances this season and is now the Mets' closer after they traded K-Rod. He has six saves. His next save will be the 300th of his career. His K/9 of 8.0 is his best since 2006 and his WHIP of 1.180 is his best since he was the Cardinals' closer in 2007. Before he became the closer, Isringhausen recorded fifteen holds. Not bad for a guy everyone thought was finished.

LaTroy Hawkins finishes this back from the dead post. Hawkins, like Isringhausen, is 38 years old now. As mentioned, he's pitching for his eighth team in eleven years. He had a very good year for the Astros in 2009 but made only 18 appearances for the Brewers in 2010. They didn't go well and he was as welcomed in the game for Brewers' fans as was Trevor Hoffman. Hawkins compiled only 16 innings the entire season and gave up 15 runs. There was a bit of bad luck involved. His BABIP was over .400 and he struck out over ten batters per nine innings. But all of those things matter little if you only contribute 16 innings all season which included three losses against no wins.

This season, Hawkins has become a thriving and reviving member of the Brewers' bullpen. Hawkins has pitched 38 times this season for the Brewers and has a sparkling 1.73 ERA (with a 2.90 FIP). He has 17 holds and a win to show for those appearances. His strikeout rate is half of his career average, but he isn't walking anyone either. Plus, he's given up only one homer all year. The addition of Francisco Rodriguez pushes Hawkins down to the seventh inning and lower leverage situations, which is perfect for him to thrive.

We love resurrection stories. We love when people pick themselves off the floor and again perform at a high level. In Major League Baseball, several of those stories all played a part in yesterday's games. That makes for a fun night for any Fan. One of this writer's favorite Twitter follows, Dave Gershman (@Dave_Gershman)--of ESPN's Sweetspot, Beyond the Box Score and Marlins Daily fame--mentioned during Wang's outing that Yankee fans were probably gnashing their teeth over Wang's success. This Fan replied that Life is bigger than your favorite team and he agreed. Such revival stories are good for the heart and one of the reasons we love our sports so genuinely.

Adjusted WHIP?

Whenever this writer ventures into talking about numbers, there is a huge potential for problems. After all, compared to the Dave Camerons of the world, this Fan isn't exactly a heavyweight when it comes to figuring out how statistics work. But something in baseball-reference.com struck a nerve this morning. The little story on B-R's front page mentioned that Mark Buehrle became only the second pitcher since 1954 to induce six double plays in a game. In fact the entire front page was full of DP stories including how often Ivan Rodriguez has hit into more double plays than he has had walks in a season. Cool stuff. But the little nugget about Buehrle caught this Fan's fancy.

And important statistic for pitchers is WHIP. It's not the be all and end all statistic, but it's important. Base runners mean runs, so preventing them is important. Perhaps it is as important as K/9 and K/BB. But what about double plays? To be sure the two outs get added into the innings pitched statistic. But double plays erase one of the base runners that got on via a walk or a hit (or an error which we'll have to talk about). So shouldn't the pitcher get some credit for erasing some of those base runners he put on?

Let's take Buehrle for example. The guy has a no-hitter to his credit, which is doubly ironic considering he has led the league in hits allowed at least four times in his career. In 2010, Buehrle (whose name is really a pain in the neck to type) induced 19 double plays. His WHIP for the season was 1.43. If you subtract his double plays induced (19) from his walks plus hits, his "Adjusted WHIP" goes down to 1.31.

For another example, the Fan tried to think of a "sinkerball" pitcher. For some reason Cien-Ming Wang came to mind (wonder if he'll ever pitcher again?). He too gave up a lot of hits in his career. In 2007, for example, he had a WHIP of 1.294. But he induced 32 double plays. If you take 32 off of his walk plus hit total, his "Adjusted WHIP" goes all the way down to 1.114. That looks a lot tidier, does it not?

Take an inning by inning look at it. Say a pitcher allows two base runners in an inning. If he closes out the inning without allowing either to score, he's still going to have an ugly WHIP for that inning of 2.0. If he got out of the inning with a double play, then his "Adjusted WHIP" goes down to 1.0, a lot prettier.

The Fan thinks about this because pitchers that pitch to contact don't get a lot of love in this new age of baseball analysis. Those that strikeout a lot of batters and have a positive K/BB ratios get the most love, especially if their WHIPs are in good shape. But if we adjusted a "sinkerball" pitcher's WHIP to take double plays into account, maybe they would get more love.

Let's take one more example to see if we can prove a point. Let's look at Derek Lowe versus Tommy Hanson on the Braves. Hanson finished the season with a 2.5 WAR while Lowe finished with a 1.7. This is despite the fact that Lowe won 16 games and Hanson only 10. But that's because Hanson has a much better K/BB ratio and a better WHIP. In double plays, Lowe induced 22 compared to Hanson's 12. Hanson still has the better stats, but if Lowe's WHIP of 1.368 is translated to an "Adjusted WHIP" then it comes down to 1.258 and  thus closer to Hanson than before. Hanson still comes out on top, but not by nearly as much.

It's something to think about at least.

Tale of Three Pitchers

Three pitchers that figured greatly in their teams' runs to the playoffs and beyond have been in the news this week. Two will be pitching for different teams and one is still under contract. All three have had varying levels of success, two of them have had high levels of success. All faced difficulties in 2009 and have serious question marks behind their names. The three? Todd Wellemeyer, Chien-Ming Wang and Daisuke Matsusaka.

Wellemeyer just signed with the Giants, so let's start with him. Two years ago, he seemed to be another of Duncan's miracles for the Cardinals. He went 13-9 with an ERA of 3.79. After never throwing more than 79 innings in any season in his years with the Royals, Cubs and Marlins, he threw 191 quality innings for the Cardinals.

Then 2009 came and Wellemeyer had a dud. His record sunk to 7-10. His ERA ballooned to 5.89 and his hits per nine and homers per nine innings were downright scary. So the question needs to be asked, is he as good as 2008, or as bad as 2009? The answer is probably no to both.

After playing around with Wellemeyer's numbers, it appears that he was pretty lucky in 2008. His BABIP or Batting Average for Balls in Play was a ridiculous .267. It was an even more absurd .216 on ball hit on the ground. His 20.6% line drive percentage was high, his walks per nine were high and he gave up 25 homers. But the Cardinals had a good team, a good defense and they won a good percentage of his games.

As lucky as Wellemeyer was in 2008, he was as unlucky in 2009. His BABIP shot up to .357 including .330 on ground balls. Remember that he had Schumaker out of position at second base and a rotating case of fielders at third and short whereas he had Troy Glaus at third and Cesar Izturis at short and Adam Kennedy at second (a good fielding infield) in 2008. .300 is about right for BABIP and would be considered neutral on the luck scale. But BABIP also shows fielding skills behind a pitcher. Wellemeyer had good fielding support in 2008 and lousy support in 2009. The Cardinals were 11th out of 16 teams in fielding percentage in the NL.

So what can the Giants expect? Probably a league average pitcher. He fared well in relief last year after he lost his rotation spot. He walks too many and gives up his fair share of homers, but whether he is in relief or starting, he should give them a shot at winning any game at least. It should also be noted that last year, he was coming off a year in which he threw more innings than ever before. That had to be some kind of factor as well.

Chien-Ming Wang has been reported close to a deal with the Nationals. The question begs as to why the Yankees gave up on him. What do they know that they aren't telling anyone? After all, before his injury in 2008 (running the bases in an interleague game), he had gone 54-22 for the Yankees. That's a pretty darn good winning percentage, eh? And it wasn't a fluke. In 2006 and 2007, his ERA+ was over 120.

So Wang got hurt and when he tried to come back last year, he had one of the most horrendous starts in the history of baseball. The Fan watched most of those games and has never seen a pitcher get so rocked...ever! Obviously, he wasn't right. After spending some time on the DL, he came back late in the year and pitched three games in relief. The numbers looked good for those outings too. So given his history, and given the state of pitching in the game, why would the Yankees just let him walk? Only they know. But it will be interesting to see if they were right or if he comes back and pitches well for his new team.

If he does sign with the Nats and can give them some semblance of his former self, they could be a lot more fun to watch this year than last. They already have Marquis, so they could have some decent starters at least.

Daisuke Matsusaka (his nickname of Dice-K is MUCH easier to say) is pretty much in the same boat as Wang except he still has a contract with his old team. If he didn't, odds would be that he wouldn't still be with the Red Sox either, especially when he angered his manager in a dispute over his conditioning and the state of his shoulder.

Like Wang, Dice-K had a dreadful year to forget in 2009. After two years of success, he apparently hurt his shoulder in the World Baseball Waste of Time Thingy. He never could get started for the Red Sox, but since they have committed a lot of money with him, he will get a chance to prove he can pitch again for the Red Sox--something Wang didn't get from the Yankees.

But again, Dice-K's numbers are interesting. He fared moderately well in 2007. His BABIP was right where it should have been at .301. He walked way too many batters, but struck out a passel of them too. His 18-3 in 2008 was something of a fluke. His BABIP was an insane .260 which also showed how good the Red Sox were in the field. His walks were still high and he has showed a propensity over the years to pitch worse when runners are on base and he has to pitch out of the stretch. His saving grace is his strikeouts--consistently in the 8.2 K/9 range for his career.

Last year, he wasn't quite as bad as much as he wasn't quite that good in 2008. His BABIP shot up to .382 which is REALLY high. Everyone agrees (including the Red Sox themselves) that the Red Sox did not field well last year. Shortstop was particularly painful.

So what does this tale of three pitchers tell us? First, things sure do change from year to year, don't they? Second, if all three are healthy, they could help the teams they will be pitching for. Predictions? Dice-K, from all accounts has worked hard on strengthening his shoulder and legs and should finish with an ERA+ between 115 and 125. Wang, if he is healthy, should finish with an ERA+ of between 100-110 and Wellemeyer will be anywhere from 95 to 105. If those predictions were to come true, everyone who employs them should be quite happy.

Two Games. Two Simultaneously Weird Innings

Baseball is such a great game. Yes, the stats are fun. Yes, the analysis is great. But the games themselves provide so many unexpected moments. Two really weird innings happened at the exact same time in two different ballparks. One didn't factor greatly in the results of the game. The other really did. In the words of Randy Jackson, "Check it out, Baby."

First, we start in Toronto. The Tigers had scored three runs in the top of the first on a Miguel Cabrera homer. Zack Minor (check out the next post for more on him) comes out to pitch the bottom of the first for the Tigers. Marco (Polo!) Scaturo immediately greets Minor with a double to left. Aaron Hill hits a bomb to deep center for another double that scores Scaturo. Alex Rios singles to right field but Hill is held up at third. Vernon Wells then walks to load the bases. So a run is in and the Tigers are in some Minor trouble.

At the same time, in Baltimore, the Yankees are trying to win their first game of the year. But they went scoreless in the top of the first despite a walk by Jeter. Chien-Ming Wang comes out in the bottom of the first for his debut for the year after an injury-filled 2008. It doesn't start well at all for Wang. After Roberts grounded out to start the inning, Adam Jones hits a ground rule double to deep right. Nick Markakis pounds the ball to deep center for another double that scores Jones. Sounds familiar doesn't it? Aubrey Huff breaks the pattern and his the third consecutive double and plates Markakis. Melvin Mora is up next and Wang is in a heap of trouble.

The Fan, at this point is flipping back and forth to both games as all this is happening...well...simultaneously. We now flip back to Toronto. Remember the bases are loaded, one run is already in and there are no outs. Lind is up for the Blue Jays and he has already had a hot start. But he grounds it to the infield and a force is made at home and Aaron Hill is out. Runners still fill the bases and there is still only one out.

Flip back to Baltimore. Huff is on second and Mora is up. Two runs are already in. Inexplicably, Huff heads for third. Wang fires over to Ransom and Huff is tagged out. What the? What was he thinking? To make matters worse, Mora then singles and is on first with two out. The single would probably have scored Huff. But with two outs, Luke Scott grounds to the infield and Mora is forced at second to end the inning.

Flip! Toronto still has the bases loaded with one out. A run has already scored, but Zack Minor induced a ground ball force out at the plate, so that's the one out. Scott Rolen is up next and hits a fly ball to right field. Josh Anderson catches it and throws a strike to Gerald Laird and Rios is out, double play! Wow!

Two innings, lots of guys running around, lots of base runners and two very bizarre happenings. Only three runs score when it seemed like there would be a dozen between the two innings. The Orioles went ahead and won anyway, because Wang just didn't have anything tonight. But in Toronto, the Blue Jays never scored again, so that inning really did win the game for the Tigers.

Baseball is so great.