Micah Owings' long odds

Micah Owings has long been a favorite of this site. He had a cool name and was one of those rare birds as a pitcher who could hit. The trouble was that despite the constant cheering, he never was much of a pitcher. As a right-handed pitcher, he could get some right-handed batters out, but left-handed batters bashed him to the tune of an .830 OPS against for his career. But he was different because he could hit. In fact, he has sent to the plate as a pinch hitter 48 times in his career. How many pitchers can say that? Now, Micah Owings wants to ditch his pitching career and is in the Nationals' camp hoping to be a first baseman.

We've been down this road before with Rick Ankiel. In fact, Owings has spoken with Ankiel about making the switch. But there are several differences between the two cases. Ankiel was a prodigious pitching talent who flamed out when he suddenly suffered from an inability to throw the ball anywhere near the strike zone. Ankiel was still very young when his pitching career ended. Owings is 30.

Another difference is that Ankiel worked his way back to the majors by spending time in the minor leagues as a batter and fielder after making the switch. Owings is trying to make the Nationals without any such re-training. Since Owings was drafted in 2005, he has all of 316 professional plate appearances, 219 of those in the majors.

By all appearances, Owings is a more talented hitter than Rick Ankiel ever was. Owings owns a major league slugging percentage of .502 and an OPS of .813. He had an .845 OPS in the minors. Perhaps that might be a misstatement. Ankiel did put together an .876 OPS in the minors. But with the exception of one decent season with the Cardinals, Ankiel has not been a good major league hitter with a .729 career OPS.

But also, Ankiel offered at least some value in the field. Perhaps misplaced in center field, Ankiel has at least held his own as a major league fielder with career fielding numbers in the slightly better than average category. And, of course, Ankiel's ability to gun out runners from the outfield is legendary.

Owings wants to be a first baseman. That position is one not considered to have a need for great fielding prowess (though good fielding first basemen have long been undervalued). Owings choice of position shows that he has little to offer as a fielder and will have to make a living as a hitter.

With Ankiel as his model, the odds are not favorable. Will Owings go to the minors if he doesn't make the Nationals and prove he can hit and field? Or will the Nationals simply cut him and end the experiment before it can get started?

It would have been much more fun for Micah Owings to be a fringe starter in the National League and show off his bat every fifth day. That was a fun story. That, we rooted for. But, while interesting, his current project seems to have little odds of success. He is a 30 year old hitting prospect in a young man's game. If some miracle happened and he caught on, that would be cool. I would lay the odds of that happening as the same of finding a warm beach in Maine in February.

Micah Owings is Perfect

Great anecdotes of our sport of baseball defy cold statistical analysis. The truth of the matter is that anything under the sun can happen for a player at any time. Ryan Roberts had never hit a grand slam in his professional life and now he's had two in his last six games. That's not putting down analysis. That way of looking at baseball is fun too. And it doesn't matter if those analysts put down these anomalous moments for what they are. Those happenings happened and you can't...well...unhappen them. Take the season of Micah Owings, pitcher of the fighting Arizona Diamondbacks.

Owings stepped into a game getting out of control last night. With the Diamondbacks needing a win to extend their series with the Brewers to a full five games, their starting pitcher, Joe Saunders, was in a battle with Milwaukee's Randy Wolf to see who could stink up the joint more from a pitching stand point. Saunders gave up a run in the first. Wolf gave up five in the first. Saunders gave up another run in the second and then another one in the top of the third. Kirk Gibson, to his credit, saw the way things were going and smartly pinch hit for Saunders. Gibson's choice of the little known player with the unlikely name of Collin Cowgill paid off huge dividends as Cowgill hit a two-run single to extend the D-backs' lead to 7-3. Into the game stepped Micah Owings.

Fans of this site know that Owings is a favorite here. Fans don't choose favorite players. The players choose the fans. And Owings has always been close to this heart. The root of that fan-hood probably comes from a DH-loving writer who also loves pitchers that can hit. Owings can hit. As a tweeter pointed out last night, Owings has a career rWAR of 0.2 as a pitcher and 3.0 as a batter. But as much as this Fan love him some Micah Owings, the understanding that Owings has never been a very good pitcher has been there. That didn't matter. This writer still loved the guy.

So imagine how ecstatic this Fan would be that Micah Owings has had a perfect season. Perfect? Well, only if you show that his win-loss record--a statistic genuinely hated by all card-carrying members of analytically loving crowd--was a perfect 8-0 during the regular season. Yes, Owings also compiled his career's best ERA of 3.57. But folks, it's a fluke. If you look at Owings' FIP and xFIP, he really wasn't any better this year than any other of his not-so-good seasons. He was simply more fortunate. That's the reality. But the alternate reality is that those eight wins against no losses are still there and you can't ever erase them from the record books. As long as Baseball-reference.com stands, that record will be there.

And now, in the Diamondbacks' somewhat storybook season, Micah Owings is again perfect in the NLDS. His two scoreless innings helped him inherit the win from a starter who couldn't make it to the fifth inning. So now Owings is 9-0 this season: 8-0 in the regular season and 1-0 in the post season. Don't you love it? 

Baseball has an affectionate term for the kind of win that Owings got last night in Arizona. They are called vulture wins. Owings did make four starts this season. He never pitched longer than 5.1 innings in any of them, yet he won three of those games and his team won all four. The rest of his five regular season wins came like last night when Owings entered a game that was either tied or his team was behind or the starter couldn't get the required five innings for the victory. Owings swooped in and nabbed that win. He had three holds during the season, but overall, Owings was the talisman for the Diamondbacks. If he got into a game, good things were going to happen.

It doesn't matter that it's all anomalous. It doesn't matter that his efforts garner any love from analysts. It doesn't matter that Owings really hasn't been any better than any other of his previous seasons. In 2011, Micah Owings was perfect. Absolutely perfect.

Three Cheers for Revivals!

We as a people are captivated by revival stories. Whether it be Lazarus rising from the dead or an old actor getting one last great part and an Oscar nomination, we love to root for someone making it back from the trash heap of history. Last night we had several of those kinds of stories. There was the Chien-Ming Wang start for the Washington Nationals. Dontrelle Willis pitched eight strong innings for the Reds (and got another hit). Micah Owings pitched three strong innings with four strikeouts and raised his record to 6-0 with a 2.58 ERA (he got a hit and scored a run too). Jason Isringhousen recorded his sixth save after most people thought his career was over. And LaTroy Hawkins picked up a win for his eighth different team in his eleven year career. If you like back from the dead stories, they were like shooting stars last night.

Let's start with Chien-Ming Wang. Wang won nineteen games for the Yankees in both 2006 and 2007. He was heading for his third straight very good season in 2008 as he was 8-2 after fifteen starts. But he blew out a wheel running the bases during an interleague game (leading to one of the last bombastic outbursts from George Steinbrenner). Wang missed the rest of that season. The pitcher tried to come back in 2009 but he wasn't right and took a bunch of serious lickings before mercifully being shut down. He did make a few more appearances later in the year in relief, but he wasn't right.

After a pitcher wins 55 games in only 95 starts for the Yankees (good for a winning percentage close to .700), you would think the Yankees would give him a chance to work it out. But he was cut loose faster than an undersized fish and he signed with the Nationals. But his leg problems led to shoulder problems and he missed the entire 2010 season. After not earning a dime of his 2010 salary, you would understand if the Nationals would have followed the Yankees' lead and dumped him too. But they didn't. They signed him this year--granted, for a lot less money--and gave him a chance to work his way back.

And he did make it back to the majors and made his first start for the Nationals on July 29. It didn't go well. He gave up six runs with nine base runners in only four innings and lost. He next started August 3 against the Braves and it went little better. He lasted five innings in that game and gave up eight base runners and six runs again (though only two of them were earned). And then came his gem on Tuesday night.

Wang pitched six full innings. He carried a no hitter through five and gave up only one hit and two walks through six. One of those three base runners was erased by a double play. Two things were encouraging about that start. The first is that Wang was throwing his sinker at 92, or just one MPH less than his heydays with the Yankees. The second was that he induced eleven ground balls compared to just four fly balls. That was vintage Chien-Ming Wang.

It will remain to be seen whether Wang can build from that game (after all, it was against the Cubs). But those of us who root for dead-risings will be watching.

Next, we come to Dontrelle Willis. One frustrated Reds' fan said on Twitter that Willis was just good enough to lose. This observer thinks that statement was unfair (though understandable from a rabid fan's point of view). Yes, Willis is now 0-2 in his six starts since returning from the dead. But in those six starts, he's given up runs in the following order: 2, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3. Wouldn't you take that from any starting pitcher? The big thing for Willis is that he is throwing strikes. His 2.6 walks per nine is his best since his halcyon days of 2005. The D-Train is back on the tracks.

Let's face it: Micah Owings has never been a very good pitcher. Oh, he had a decent rookie season for the Diamondbacks in 2007 when he became a fan favorite in that market. But his 8-8 record and 111 ERA+ were deceiving and a bit lucky. He actually had a similar season in 2008 but was less lucky and his ERA ballooned.  Obviously the Diamondbacks didn't think that highly of him as he was the old "Player to be Named Later" in the Adam Dunn deal that sent the slugger to the Diamondbacks and Owings to the Reds.

Owings had two disastrous years for the Reds. His walk rate ballooned, which isn't a good thing for a guy prone to giving up homers. His WHIP was over 1.5 both years for the Reds and 2010 gave him three straight years of ERA+ in the 70s. The only startling feature about Owings was his ability to hit. In 215 big league plate appearances, Owings has a .512 slugging percentage and a career OPS+ of 110! He's hit nine homers in his career. But even that part of his game fell off with the Reds in 2010.

It was no surprise when the Reds non-tendered him after the season. Owings caught back on with the Diamondbacks and started the season in Triple A. But he's now made twenty appearances including four starts and has picked up a habit of scooping up those vulture wins. His 2.68 ERA is misleading as heck as his FIP is over four and batters are only hitting .228 with balls in play. Owings has also stranded 83% of his base runners. Those are unsustainable numbers. But still, we can include Owings in the back from the dead column and hope his luck continues. As long as he is in the big leagues, we get the thrill of his offense as a pitcher.

Jason Isringhausen is 38 years old. He's made 667 appearances in his career but made none last year and only nine the year before that. And here he is in 2011, back from the dead for the New York Mets. Isringhausen has made 46 appearances this season and is now the Mets' closer after they traded K-Rod. He has six saves. His next save will be the 300th of his career. His K/9 of 8.0 is his best since 2006 and his WHIP of 1.180 is his best since he was the Cardinals' closer in 2007. Before he became the closer, Isringhausen recorded fifteen holds. Not bad for a guy everyone thought was finished.

LaTroy Hawkins finishes this back from the dead post. Hawkins, like Isringhausen, is 38 years old now. As mentioned, he's pitching for his eighth team in eleven years. He had a very good year for the Astros in 2009 but made only 18 appearances for the Brewers in 2010. They didn't go well and he was as welcomed in the game for Brewers' fans as was Trevor Hoffman. Hawkins compiled only 16 innings the entire season and gave up 15 runs. There was a bit of bad luck involved. His BABIP was over .400 and he struck out over ten batters per nine innings. But all of those things matter little if you only contribute 16 innings all season which included three losses against no wins.

This season, Hawkins has become a thriving and reviving member of the Brewers' bullpen. Hawkins has pitched 38 times this season for the Brewers and has a sparkling 1.73 ERA (with a 2.90 FIP). He has 17 holds and a win to show for those appearances. His strikeout rate is half of his career average, but he isn't walking anyone either. Plus, he's given up only one homer all year. The addition of Francisco Rodriguez pushes Hawkins down to the seventh inning and lower leverage situations, which is perfect for him to thrive.

We love resurrection stories. We love when people pick themselves off the floor and again perform at a high level. In Major League Baseball, several of those stories all played a part in yesterday's games. That makes for a fun night for any Fan. One of this writer's favorite Twitter follows, Dave Gershman (@Dave_Gershman)--of ESPN's Sweetspot, Beyond the Box Score and Marlins Daily fame--mentioned during Wang's outing that Yankee fans were probably gnashing their teeth over Wang's success. This Fan replied that Life is bigger than your favorite team and he agreed. Such revival stories are good for the heart and one of the reasons we love our sports so genuinely.

Why It's So Hard to Like National League Baseball - Part 2

There were eight games played in the National League Sunday. In those eight games, 79 pitchers were used. That's only one pitcher away from ten per game. Over in the American League, there were 55 pitchers used in seven games.

In fairness, there were three extra inning games Sunday in the National League, but the longest was eleven innings. Not exactly extra long contests.

Tony LaRussa was again a big player in all this. The Cardinals won a ten inning game today against the Reds to salvage one game in the series. LaRussa used eight pitchers. Eight! And a ninth pitcher was called on to pinch hit (Wellemeyer and he struck out).

The first position of the Cardinals' batting order started with Schumaker. He was Sunday's designated guy for the old "double-switch." That's where a new pitcher is brought in during an inning and a position player is also replaced to favorably allow more at bats before the pitcher's spot in the order has to come up again. Anyway, Schumaker's spot in the batting order featured ten players by the end of the game. Ten!

Think about that. That's ten players a box score enthusiast has to read through before you even get to the second guy on the batting order. And that's twelve guys to sift through just to figure out what Pujols did for the day. Can you imagine what those fans' scorecards looked like?

Oh, and it's not all bad. Micah Owings pinch hit for the Reds in the bottom of the ninth and hit a homer to tie the game and send it into extra innings. How cool is that?