Pence or Victorino? Which team got a better deal?

A month has gone by now since the Phillies traded away two thirds of their outfield to competing clubs in the National League West. The Giants picked up Hunter Pence and the Dodgers got Shane Victorino. From a birdseye view, neither team got a competitive edge with those two deals. In fact, they look remarkably similar in their unremarkable play. The one difference is that Victorino is an out and out free agent at the end of 2012 while Pence has a final year of arbitration pending. But judging from how slow Pence has started for the Giants, that might not be a win either.

 

One factor to take into account for both players is that they had a nice home ballpark to play in at Philadelphia. Both the Giants and Dodgers play in more pitcher friendly parks. Oddly enough, both players are slightly more successful in their new homes than they are on the road so far with their new clubs. Even that is no great shakes and two teams desperately hoping for an offensive boost, neither got one.

 

Pence has had a good week. Even so, in 30 games with the Giants, Pence's triple slash line sits at .233/.292/.362. On the plus side, he has driven in 22 runs in those 30 games with a couple of homers. The Giants had to have hoped Pence would have had a bigger impact. When Pence was in a similar situation last year when he went from the Astros to the Phillies, he had an OPS of .954 down the stretch.

 

Similarly, Victorino, in his 28 games with the Dodgers, his slash line is .248/.307/.342. Pence has a five point lead in OPS, so that is a virtual dead heat. Victorino does not have the runs batted in though but has played much better in the field. According to baseball-reference.com, Victorino' play has been worth 0.4 rWAR with the Dodgers, while Pence has been worth 0.2 rWAR for the Giants. Both have a higher than average BABIP for their new teams, so it's not like they have been unlucky.

 

Both players have had disappointing seasons relative to their results a season ago and their career norms. Victorino is a full 140 points of last year's OPS with the Phillies and 65 points off his career OPS. Pence is 117 points below last year's OPS and 64 points off his career mark.

 

When you take a closer look at Hunter Pence's batted ball and plate discipline stats, there is nothing noticeably different. The one area that jumps out at you is his contact rate and swinging strike rate. His contact rate is the lowest of his career at 72.7 percent. That is off significantly from his career 77.1 percent. His swinging strike rate is 12.8 percent, also the highest of his career (11.4 percent) and significantly higher than his last two seasons. Pence has always had positive numbers against the fastball and positive numbers the last couple of seasons against the slider. Both pitches against him this year have a negative value.

 

Shane Victorino's batted ball data is also within his career norms with the one exception that his homer to fly ball rate is off quite a bit. He is slightly less patient at the plate. But nothing else is out of line for him as far as plate discipline goes. Like Pence, his is having a lot of problems with the fastball this year unlike other years. He is also struggling with the change up.

 

As you can see, neither the Dodgers or the Giants have gained an appreciable advantage with their choice of former Phillies' outfielders. If you had to give an edge to anyone for their trade deadline deals, the team that seemed to make the best deal with the struggling outfielders was the Phillies.

Houston Astros An Interesting Team

Brad Mills certainly had a tough time out of the gate last year. It got so bad early that long-time stars, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt, both asked to be traded. They got their wish and both got the playoff experiences they were hoping for. The Astros, meanwhile, didn't exactly roll over and play dead. After their funked out start, they came on strong and played very competitive baseball before fading a bit at the home stretch. Despite the team for sale, there is cause for modest hope that this team is in okay shape to field a competitive team.

First off, Mills seems to be a very good manager. The team finished eight games above its Pythagorean win-loss total based on its run differential. Mills seems to that rare mix of leader whose positive outlook is indefatigable and he seems to get the most out of his young players. He let young guys like Michael Bourn, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Johnson, Hunter Pence and Brett Wallace go out there and play everyday and all seemed more poised to become viable major league players. To be sure, there is still questions about whether Wallace will find himself and another player he let play, Tommy Manzella, seemed lost at times. But still, it's a promising starting point.

Pence and Keppinger had very fine seasons. Keppinger is a solid little player who walks more than he strike out, puts the ball in play and found a home at second base. His defense needs to improve but he looks like a guy who can live in the number two hole for many years to come. Pence almost became a star in 2010. He strikes out too much and walks too few at bats, but he had a solid season at the plate and let the team in homers, ribbies and runs scored.

After a disastrous move to sign Pedro Feliz, a move panned by everyone including this writer, the Astros didn't dwell on their mistake. Instead they moved Chris Johnson into the line up at third and he became their best hitter. His 123 OPS+ is a result of his slugging percentage and his batting average. He strikes out too much and he is far from patient at the plate with less than 20 walks. If he could be more selective and improve that category, he can be a star. He also needs to improve his defense which was far from stellar.

Wallace, obtained from the Blue Jays, was handed the first base job after Berkman left. He had some nice moments, but he too is a strikeout machine and shows little patience at the plate. He was a surprise in the field though and played more than adequately around that bag.

Michael Bourn's numbers are confusing. He steals a lot of bases and he is better than average at drawing a walk. But his batting average never got near being good enough to lead off and he does not drive the ball on a regular basis. He's a fantastic center fielder though with great defensive numbers. But he does need to pick up his average if he is going to be a viable lead off guy. And it wasn't a question of bad luck as he had a high BABIP.

The Astros have a pair of promising catchers in Quintero and Castro. Both did well on defense and threw out a good percentage of base stealers. But both finished with identical 59s in OPS+. Castro is only 23 and is one of their most highly touted young players. He should develop better with the stick and will probably the team's number one catcher before too long.

The Astros do need to figure out how long the Carlos Lee era lasts in Houston. Lee seems like a really old 34, is a terrible outfielder and his production was way down this past season. As the last remaining "star" of this team, he is a problem the Astros have to deal with. His offense has been overblown and he just isn't as good a player as people have thought. He still hits homers, but offers little else.

We'll have to deal with the pitching in another post as this one is getting long in the tooth. But Wandy Rodriguez is one of the most solid starters in baseball. Brett Myers stunned everyone with his success last year. The Astros need to figure out the rest among Norris, Figueroa, Wright and Happ. But there is enough there to give the Astros a chance to win three out of every five games.

There is mild optimism for this team. They have a good manager. They have young players that could develop into very good ones and they have a lovely ball park. In two years, they will also have a local television network like NESN and YES and that will improve their viability as well. Don't count the Astros out in 2011. They have little minor league depth, but they seem to be making the most out of what they do have.