Someone Smack Carly Simon - Anticipation Stinks

The Major League Baseball off season has become such a major drag in recent seasons and this year has been the worst yet. Here we are on January 10 and some of the biggest names on the board are still out there. Of course, we are talking about Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. But there are others as well. Part of the reason has already been discussed in this space before. With organizations now run by analytical types, teams are very hesitant to outlay big money that stretches out beyond a player's declining years. Knowing what's going on, and yet not, is enough to drive a fan crazy.

Fans of the New York Yankees are sorely vexed that Machado is still not signed. Very rarely has such a situation polarized a fan base. Half of those fans are fuming that the team has not yet signed Machado and question George Steinbrenner's son's manhood. The other half (:::raising hand:::) do not want the guy no matter how good he is and need to know one way or another how it is going to go.

There is no need to worry about Harper as he does not fit with the Yankees. Imagining his swing in Yankee Stadium is enticing, but where would he play? So unless there is some kind of major shock, the wait on Harper is not killing the fan base all that much. The same could be said about Yasmani Grandl who apparently shot himself in the foot by not taking a multi-year deal from the Mets. The only catcher the Yankees would ever consider instead of Gary Sanchez is J.T. Realmuto.

The power-reliever market has been somewhat lively and the Yankees already made a splash by re-signing Zach Britton and still may pull the trigger on Adam Ottavino. But it sure did hurt to see David Robertson sign with the Phillies. Robertson is such a known commodity and it really stunk to see him get away. Most fans would have traded Britton for Robertson in a heartbeat and the same with the unproven (long-term) Ottavino.

Craig Kimbrel has yet to find a landing spot. It seems he has well over-stepped what teams are willing to give him (whether it be years or dollars). The prediction here is that he signs with the Red Sox for two years with an option.

Meanwhile, the New York Mets just made a steal by signing Luis Avilan to a Minor League deal with a Spring Training invite. Avilan has bee used mostly as a Loogy, but has shown he can get right-handed batters out as well. He has been very solid every year he's pitched in the Majors. Smart move.

There are other players out there who would have signed much earlier in the past. Dallas Keuchel is still out there as is A.J. Pollack. Adam Jones would have been signed by now in years past and the same can be said of Mike Moustakas or Nick Markakis. Being an older player in today's game is not a good thing anymore...just ask Josh Donaldson.

Of course, we were in a similar position last year when the Red Sox let the bottom fall out of the market to sign J.D. Martinez. He is a once in a generation example though as he totally revamped his teammates' mindset and was as much responsible for their season and championship than can be said about anyone in a very long while. There are no gems like him out there in the current land of the unsigned.

The real drama is whether Harper and Machado back down their demands or whether a team will blink in the headlights. There are no manhood questions for Hal Steinbrenner here. Despite those who think otherwise, just because the Yankees have the money to spend, it doesn't mean it should be stupid about it.

Meanwhile, we wait. And wait. And wait. That song hinted at in the title was okay for ketchup, but not for those fans heavily invested in the outcome of this free agent tug-of-war.

The Orioles are leaking

General Managers are only as good as their team's performance in the past season. Dan Duquette was genius last season as the Orioles surprised everyone with blowing out the AL East and making it to the American League Championship Series. Duquette brought in pieces that worked perfectly such as Nelson Cruz and Andrew Miller. But so far this off season seems to show a general leaking of talent as Cruz, Miller and now Nick Markakis have been allowed to sign in greener pastures. Will the Orioles be one and done?

Such a pronouncement in December with almost five months of the off season yet to come would be misguided. But the Orioles have allowed at least six wins of offense and two wins of relief pitching to head out the door. In the long run, these decisions may be wise as the total expense of those players long term might be painful. But in the short term, Orioles fans might be getting a little antsy.

The Red Sox and Blue Jays have improved themselves greatly thus far--at least on paper. The Yankees have been spinning in place and the Rays seem in disarray (but with a still promising rotation). If you compare teams in the AL East, you have to look at the Orioles as an 89-win team after losing that talent. Can they make it up in other ways? Perhaps.

The team still has a strong core in Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy, Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Matt Wieters. There are questions marks among that group. Can Davis bounce back off a disappointing season and stay clean? How will Wieters respond after missing so much time with a rebuilt elbow? Can Machado's knees hold up or is this a chronic season to season thing? But let's, for now, assume that those folks will all contribute ably.

The starting staff will return all the same pitchers back into the mix even though Bud Norris has had his name rumored in trades all winter. They are not a great rotation, but with good defense, they get the job done. The loss of Miller will hurt, but the bullpen was pretty good before he even got there and that same cast is back for another season.

With that much stability (barring injuries), how can the production and play of Markakis and Cruz be made up?

Markakis is probably the easiest to replace. No knock on the guy as he has been a very good player for the Orioles. But his offense has only been about seven percent better than league average and that is not as hard to replace as you think. The most obvious answer seems to be Dariel Alvarez, the Cuban refugee the O's signed in 2013. He has raked pretty consistently in the minors and while he is not that patient a hitter, he does hit enough to replace Markakis if his minor league play is an indication.

The only other minor league options such as Mike Yastrzemski and Josh Hart are still a year or two away.

Harder to replace is Nelson Cruz. While Cruz never saw a pitch he didn't like to swing at, his power is a high commodity in today's market. How do the Orioles close that gap? To me, expecting Steve Pearce to repeat his season last year also seems to be dicey. So that is a lot of power to replace.

Let's say that Wieters comes back as good as he was. That is a plus total of 17 homers over the five he hit last year before he was hurt. If Chris Davis can be somewhere between his monster 2013 and disappointing 2014, he could hit 35 homers and add seven more to the total. Platooning Davis with Christian Walker might produce the same results with a better overall batting average.

I'm not sure Jonathan Schoop will ever develop into an effective MLB hitter. His thirteen walks for all of 2014 are a red flag to me as it led to a .244 OBP. But he could add another six homers to his total of 14 last season. And add to that a bounce-back power year for J.J. Hardy who was way below his career yearly homer output last season could make up some more.

If all of that goes well, which, of course, is a big if, the Orioles could make up the power lost by Nelson Cruz. Whether they can overcome the lack of Cruz's presence in the lineup is a very big question.

Like I said, there is a lot of off season left to go and I'm sure Dan Duquette is not going to stand pat. Adding Melky Cabrera or someone of that caliber might still be a possibility.

But even if Duquette stands pat, as I have outlined, the Orioles might be okay as is. The core is still there. For the most part, a team built on defense and a winning attitude instilled by Buck Showalter could keep the Orioles in the mix. Only time will tell if this General Manager will go from hero to bum or whether he was shrewd to let those players walk when he did. I wouldn't count the Orioles out.

Should Manny Machado ever be a shortstop?

Few of us who witnessed or saw on replay the Manny Machado injury in the latter part of 2013 will ever forget it. Legs simply are not supposed to go in the direction that ended his season as his was on the ground behind first base. It was gruesome. I thought of that scene recently when I heard some analyst state recently (I cannot remember who or where) that Manny Machado will some day be the Orioles' shortstop. Is that still a realistic possibility?

I went to do some reading on his injury and the surgery required to fix it. I think this article is pretty much the definitive reading resource. And after reading the piece, I did not come away with all kinds of warm fuzzies that Machado was going to be totally fine after his rehabilitation. The feeling I received was that Machado has an anatomical predisposition to having further kneecap problems. According to the article, this is Machado's second event and this time it took out the tendons with it.

It looks like he is in for a major rehab process and it sounds to me like mid-April is a somewhat safe guess on when he will be back. You do not have to worry about this year because J.J. Hardy is signed through 2014 and will be a free agent in 2015. But what then? Do you really want to take this young talent, this former third overall pick in the draft and put him at further risk making pivots at second base with runners barreling into him all season long? Would not third base be a safer way to keep him as healthy as possible?

2014 will also tell a lot about Machado's flexibility and maneuverability after he comes back to play. If he has the sure signs of losing some range of motion and loss of speed, then the decision might be made for the team. If that is the case, then the Orioles might want to think about extending Hardy or look for other options such as Adrian Marin, another kid from Miami like Machado who could make a similar early leap into the Majors.

But let's look at this another way. What if Manny Machado comes back from his rehab perfectly fine and looks to be the same player he was before the injury? Why would you move him from third? According to both Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com, Machado just completed the second best fielding season ever for a third baseman. If you look at B-R's leaderboard for zone runs for a season, there his 2013 season sits sandwiched between Brooks Robinson's 1968 (the best ever) and the Hall of Fame player's 1967 season.

In other words, nobody has played third base that well in 46 years! Why would you then move him? Because a shortstop is hypothetically more valuable to a team than a third baseman? I get the notion. And perhaps the lead guitarist in a band is the most valuable band member and perhaps Paul McCartney could have been that guy. Instead, McCartney became one of the best bass players in history. Maybe that analogy is a stretch, but it sort of makes my point here.

Whether the guy is playing short or third, if we already know that he can play third better than anyone else since Brooks Robinsion, it seems that you have found something you shouldn't mess with.

Ideally, you would like your third baseman to have some pop in the lineup. At least that is the prevalent theory. And I am not quite yet sold on Machado offensively. Machado has lost any sense of patience at the plate he displayed in the minors and his second half of 2013 was abysmal. He batted under .200 in two of his last three months with an OPS under .600 in those months.

But if you add up his season in total, his 51 doubles and 12 homers could turn someday soon into 31 doubles and 32 homers and then you have your ideal. Even so, most teams in baseball would have taken the offensive output that Machado put out in 2013 for their third basemen...like the Yankees for example.

The Orioles and perhaps many baseball analysts still might look at Manny Machado as the Orioles' future shortstop. Such a notion seems too big a risk to him physically long term and illogical considering how valuable a third baseman he has become. Machado might some day play short for the Orioles, but that won't mean it will be the right call.

The Flagrant Fan's Gold Glove Award winners

The Gold Glove Award has been the most ridiculed award of them all. While I love Derek Jeter, the fact that he won any Gold Gloves is farcical. Perhaps this year will be better as a new rule in place gives 25% of the scoring based on statistics and the other 75% on coaches and managers who have better things in life to do than to study these things closely. There is a problem here, though, since many feel skittish on the fielding stats we currently have. At least it is a step in the right direction.

I have picked my own Gold Glove Award winners based on careful analysis. I am sure that I will get a few people mad at me. But hey, nobody ever said this was easy. Here we go:

Catching

NL: This is tougher than anyone thinks. Russell Martin has had an unbelievable year. He has thrown out 40% of runners attempting to steal. His framing skills are off the charts. He caught 120 games. The only nagging point is that there were 50 wild pitches thrown with him back there. That's a lot! The other choice is Yadier Molina who caught 131 games. He threw out 43% of base runners attempting to steal, had three passed balls compared to Martin's four. But he threw out 20 base steal attempts and Martin 36. Martin had 41 more total assists. Fangraphs gives Martin the edge. Baseball-reference.com gives it to Molina. With fear and trepidation, I am going with Russell Martin. But Molina will get the award.

AL: The two choices are Matt Wieters and Salvador Perez. Perez had a better percentage throwing out base steal attempts and had one less passed ball and a few more assists. Perez had less passed balls and Wieters less errors. I am going with Salvador Perez. Wieters will get the award.

First base

NL: This one is really close between Anthony Rizzo and Brandon Belt. I think Belt had a slow start in all phases of his season and that gives Rizzo the edge. I think Belt will win a bunch of them from here on out though. Adrian Gonzalez will win the award.

AL: I was totally shocked when I went through all the numbers and this came out to a win for Mike Napoli. Mike Napoli!? Yup. James Loney will probably win the award.

Second base

NL: Brandon Phillips will win the award and I would not have any problem with him winning it. Nobody in the National League had more assists at second than Phillips and his range is still there. But Darwin Barney might have out-played him in the field this season with the Cubs. Barney's UZR is higher and he made five less errors. I am going with Barney.

AL: This one is easy: Dustin Pedroia. If the Rays would let Ben Zobrist play there every day, he might have competition. Brian Dozier also had a great season in the field and had more assists than any second baseman in baseball. But Pedroia is the easy call.

Shortstop

NL: This one is easy. Andrelton Simmons has the fifth best fielding season ever according to Baseball-reference.com. There is nobody in baseball that is close.

AL: This is a two-horse race with the unlikely names of Alcides Escobar and Yunel Escobar. I give the edge to Alcides Escobar. Don't be surprised if J.J. Hardy gets the award again though.

Third base

NL: Nolan Arenado is the clear winner for me over Todd Frazier. Arenado should get the nod from the coaches too. But I don't know if that is a guarantee.

AL: Manny Machado had a season for the ages at third base. Baseball-reference.com gives Brooks Robinson the best season ever at 33 total zone runs. Machado had 31.5 this season. Amazing. Nobody else is in the picture.

Left Field

NL: There is only one choice here: Starling Marte. There is no one else. If he fails to win it, then farce would come to mind.

AL: If David Murphy had stayed in one place more, he would have given Alex Gordon a run for his money. But Gordon is the choice and he will win the award.

Center field

NL: If A.J. Pollock had played more, he would have been the choice. But since he did not play enough in my book, my pick is Carlos Gomez. Gomez should get the trophy, even if he doesn't get any votes from the Atlanta Braves. Heh.

AL: This is a three-horse race with Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus, Denard Span and Leonys Martin. Martin is out because of less innings than the others. But look out for him in the future. My pick goes to Ellsbury and he will get the trophy too.

Right field

NL: The choices here are pretty clear in both leagues. Gerardo Parra was the class of the National League with no real challenger.

AL: The clear choice is Shane Victorino. He had the best year of any right-fielder in either league.

Pitcher

Oh forget it. Who cares.

That's it. Those are the Flagrant Fan's Gold Glove Award winners for 2013.

Simmons and Machado having historic fielding seasons

Andrelton Simmons of the Atlanta Braves and Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles are both in their second seasons and first full seasons. Simmons is 23 and Machado is 21. And both are already the best fielders at their positions in baseball. In fact, the seasons they are having in the field are downright historic.

We all know that fielding statistics are not yet perfect. As such, it is really impossible to definitively state where the fielding seasons Machado and Simmons are having fit into the all time lexicon at their positions. But these statistics are all we have at the moment and if what we have is anywhere close to being accurate, then these two young players are sizzling at what they do.

And their seasons pass the eye test too. Watching them play is a treat day in and day out and they make the difficult seem routine and the impossible happen on a weekly basis. But flashy is one thing. To remain consistently awesome in the field is another and both have done that.

In recent years, the defensive runs saved has become just as big of the winning equation as pitching and hitting. Winning games is about scoring more runs than your opponent. In order to do so, the team has to hit to score runs and it has to pitch to prevent them plus field the ball well to prevent runs on balls in play. As such it is the runs prevented that is the focus on looking at Simmons and Machado.

And that is where the history comes in. Again, knowing the statistic is not perfect, Baseball-reference.com lists the greatest seasons in a statistic they call Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average. I know that is a mouthful. But bear with me. Andrelton Simmons is currently listed at 25 Total Zone Runs according to that statistic. Without playing another game, Simmons' season already ranks tied for twelfth all-time according to Baseball-reference.com.

Those ahead of him include four seasons for Mark Belanger, two by Ron Hanson, and one each by Rey Sanchez, Rey Ordonez, Ozzie Smith, Ozzie Guillen and Adam Everett. Everett's 2006 season at 40 runs saved above average is the all-time leader.

Simmons has played 114 of the Braves 119 games. The same site projects Simmons to finish at 30 Total Zone Runs for the season. That seems modest and would mean Simmons' season would rank fifth all time. Fifth! But if you divide Simmons 25 Total Zone Runs by his 114 games and then multiplied that by the perhaps 40 games he has left, he could conceivably reach 33 Total Zone Runs and that would rank his season third all time and tied with Rey Ordonez's season in 1999.

That is pretty amazing. Simmons also has a chance to reach 500 assists this season. Now if only his bat would come alive, it would match the great defensive season Simmons is having. Just for comparison, Fangraphs.com has him at 20.6 runs above average. No other shortstop in the game has more than 9.2. Amazing.

Then there is Machado. If Machado's season were to end right now, his 24 Total Zone Runs Above Average would place his season as tied for the fifteenth best season ever. Brooks Robinson's 33 is the top number ever. Names in front of Machado read like the Who's Who among the great third basemen of history: Graig Nettles, Buddy Bell, Adrian Beltre, Robin Ventura, Clete Boyer, Aurelio Rodriguez and Scott Rolen. That is some heady company.

B-R projects that Machado will finish at 28 Total Zone Runs which would tie him at eighth all time. Again, that seems conservative. Again, if you do the math of 24 divided by his 118 games played and then multiply that result times the 43 games he has left (he plays every day), then Brooks Robinson at the top two spots is within reach. Remarkable.

Fangraphs also has Machado on top for third basemen this season at a more conservative 21.3. The spread between he and the second and third place peers is not as dramatic as Simmons'. Nolan Arenado is listed at 16.3 and Evan Longoria at 13.8.

Fielding statistics are not as highly regarded for accurately as what we have for batters and pitchers. But based on what we see and what we do have for statistics, Manny Machado and Adrelton Simmons are having historic fielding seasons and a big reason for their respective team success.

2013 projections for Manny Machado are too conservative

The leap is way too large to consider that the Baltimore Orioles went 33-18 once Manny Machado made the leap to the Major Leagues at the age of twenty last season. One player doesn't a .647 winning percentage down that stretch make. But it makes for a nice theory. After all, the third base position went from the worst fielding position in the majors to a savings of four and a half to seven runs (depending on the site) over the last 51 games.

I don't really know what the Fans Scouting Report is on Facebook player pages. But I do know that  I love what I see there. I normally see ratings in the 60s for most players in at least a few of the categories rated there. But not for Manny Machado. His scores showed a 73 for instincts, a 72 for first step, a 62 for speed (okay, he's not fast), a 73 for hands, a 78 for the quickness of his release, an 86 for arm strength and a 72 for accuracy. Sure, Adrian Beltre beats him in all those categories (except the speed thing). But we're talking a really good third baseman here.

And yet the projections all give him anywhere for his defense from 2.3 to 7 runs above average for his fielding in 2013. Will he really flatten out that much over the course of a full season? I really don't think so. I think what you are going to see is ten runs above average making the combination of he and Hardy one of the best left sides of an infield in baseball.

The projections for his offense are even more conservative. For example, Machado finished with a .183 ISO for his 51 games in 2012. And this was for a kid that went from Double-A to the majors at a young age. The highest ISO projection has him at .173. Most have him in the .150s to .160s. I don't see it. His home run to fly ball percentage was 11.7 percent and that is a pretty healthy rate. Combine that with an unusually low line drive percentage south of 14% in 2012 and it would seem that his line drive percentage will go up leading to more doubles and triples and if his home run production stays the same, that should organically mean an ISO of at least what he did last season. I believe it will be higher.

Machado did not exactly set the world on fire with his offense in his 51 games. His triple slash line was .262/.294/.445. Yeah, that's not setting cannons off or anything. But he was twenty years old! His OPS was .739. The projections for his 2013 set his range from .698 to a high of .752. I can't see it. For one thing, his walk percentage of only 4.2% in those 51 games is deceiving compared to his plate discipline numbers. For a young kid, he only swung at 29% of pitches out of the strike zone. And his walk percentage was always at least double that in all of his minor league stops.

I understand that projection systems are by nature conservative and based on numbers plugged into the computer and what the expectation of outcomes spit out based on all factors. And I am not saying that they are all wrong because my eyes tell me that the guy just looks like a great ballplayer.  I just think Manny Machado is going to continue to grow as a major league player. He has a great manager for bringing his talent along. My prediction (I'm not smart enough to project) is that he will improve on his 2012 start to his career and will be a five WAR player in 2013. Those who project for a living go from 1.2 WARP (BP) to a high of 3.7. I think he will top that easily.