The Orioles are leaking

General Managers are only as good as their team's performance in the past season. Dan Duquette was genius last season as the Orioles surprised everyone with blowing out the AL East and making it to the American League Championship Series. Duquette brought in pieces that worked perfectly such as Nelson Cruz and Andrew Miller. But so far this off season seems to show a general leaking of talent as Cruz, Miller and now Nick Markakis have been allowed to sign in greener pastures. Will the Orioles be one and done?

Such a pronouncement in December with almost five months of the off season yet to come would be misguided. But the Orioles have allowed at least six wins of offense and two wins of relief pitching to head out the door. In the long run, these decisions may be wise as the total expense of those players long term might be painful. But in the short term, Orioles fans might be getting a little antsy.

The Red Sox and Blue Jays have improved themselves greatly thus far--at least on paper. The Yankees have been spinning in place and the Rays seem in disarray (but with a still promising rotation). If you compare teams in the AL East, you have to look at the Orioles as an 89-win team after losing that talent. Can they make it up in other ways? Perhaps.

The team still has a strong core in Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy, Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Matt Wieters. There are questions marks among that group. Can Davis bounce back off a disappointing season and stay clean? How will Wieters respond after missing so much time with a rebuilt elbow? Can Machado's knees hold up or is this a chronic season to season thing? But let's, for now, assume that those folks will all contribute ably.

The starting staff will return all the same pitchers back into the mix even though Bud Norris has had his name rumored in trades all winter. They are not a great rotation, but with good defense, they get the job done. The loss of Miller will hurt, but the bullpen was pretty good before he even got there and that same cast is back for another season.

With that much stability (barring injuries), how can the production and play of Markakis and Cruz be made up?

Markakis is probably the easiest to replace. No knock on the guy as he has been a very good player for the Orioles. But his offense has only been about seven percent better than league average and that is not as hard to replace as you think. The most obvious answer seems to be Dariel Alvarez, the Cuban refugee the O's signed in 2013. He has raked pretty consistently in the minors and while he is not that patient a hitter, he does hit enough to replace Markakis if his minor league play is an indication.

The only other minor league options such as Mike Yastrzemski and Josh Hart are still a year or two away.

Harder to replace is Nelson Cruz. While Cruz never saw a pitch he didn't like to swing at, his power is a high commodity in today's market. How do the Orioles close that gap? To me, expecting Steve Pearce to repeat his season last year also seems to be dicey. So that is a lot of power to replace.

Let's say that Wieters comes back as good as he was. That is a plus total of 17 homers over the five he hit last year before he was hurt. If Chris Davis can be somewhere between his monster 2013 and disappointing 2014, he could hit 35 homers and add seven more to the total. Platooning Davis with Christian Walker might produce the same results with a better overall batting average.

I'm not sure Jonathan Schoop will ever develop into an effective MLB hitter. His thirteen walks for all of 2014 are a red flag to me as it led to a .244 OBP. But he could add another six homers to his total of 14 last season. And add to that a bounce-back power year for J.J. Hardy who was way below his career yearly homer output last season could make up some more.

If all of that goes well, which, of course, is a big if, the Orioles could make up the power lost by Nelson Cruz. Whether they can overcome the lack of Cruz's presence in the lineup is a very big question.

Like I said, there is a lot of off season left to go and I'm sure Dan Duquette is not going to stand pat. Adding Melky Cabrera or someone of that caliber might still be a possibility.

But even if Duquette stands pat, as I have outlined, the Orioles might be okay as is. The core is still there. For the most part, a team built on defense and a winning attitude instilled by Buck Showalter could keep the Orioles in the mix. Only time will tell if this General Manager will go from hero to bum or whether he was shrewd to let those players walk when he did. I wouldn't count the Orioles out.

Matt Wieters has arrived

Before there was this kid named Bryce, there was Matt Wieters. The past is always a bit murky, but it seemed in 2009 that Matt Wieters was the most highly anticipated rookie of his era. There is a remembrance of outrage when the Orioles gave homage to the almighty dollars clock and sent him to Triple-A to start the 2009 season after he has mashed his way through Double and Triple-A ball in 2008. And sure enough, the Orioles brought Wieters up after the clock allowed the Orioles another season of Wieters control. 

And Matt Wieters did not disappoint in his first 96 games for the Orioles in 2009. He wasn't gangbusters, but his more than half a season seemed to hold promise that he was the real deal. By 2010, Wieters had established himself as the number one catcher for the Orioles and sure enough, he played 130 games for his first full season. But the season was a disappointment.

Wieters only batted .249 that year with an on-base percentage of only .319. Wieters only slugged .377. He seemed like kind of a dud. Another young catcher named Posey came along in 2010 and Wieters lost his title of most promising young catcher in the game. There was little buzz about Wieters coming into the 2011 season. His team, the Orioles were perennial losers and Wieters seemed like a symbol of all that had gone wrong in that organizations front office.

But a funny thing happened in 2011. Matt Wieters became a star. He made the All Star team. He won a Gold Glove. His OPS+ was 113 as he hit 22 homers. Being that he played for the Orioles, a team that finished a faraway last place in the AL East, his season was pretty much overlooked. And since he is a switch hitter and because he did not do much against right-handed pitching (as a left-handed batter), he still finished with only a .262 batting average with an on-base percentage of .328. Those overall numbers made him look sort of average.

And batting left-handed was a problem. Against left-handed pitching, Wieters had an OPS of 1.124 against southpaws. But since there are more right-handed pitchers in baseball, he had many more plate appearances as a left-handed batter and his OPS against them of only .662 dragged his overall numbers down.

New research into what catchers do behind the plate besides throwing out base runners and fielding bunts showed that Wieters had really developed into a fine catcher. He is rated excellent and among the best in the game at blocking pitches in the dirt, and his framing pitching skills rated above average. When you put all the numbers together, Wieters was worth 5.2 wins last season, good enough to make him the third most valuable catcher in the game behind Alex Avila and Yadier Molina.

Wieters has started 2012 with a bang. His current triple slash line sits at .344/.462/.750. And what is so impressive with his start is that he is mashing right-handed pitching. He is still hitting left-handers as a right-handed batter (.889 OPS against them). But he is now killing right-handed pitching (1.279). In past season, you were not really afraid of Matt Wieters with runners on base. This season is a whole new ballgame. You do not want him at the plate with runners on base. Not only is Matt Wieters a great catcher, he is now an offensive threat.

It is very impressive to follow Wieters' numbers over his career and to see the progression. Wieters' strikeout rate has improved every season. The progression: 22.3 percent, 18.5 percent, 15.2 percent and this year, 10.6 percent. The numbers also show a progression on his ability to handle the curve and change up. He hit two homers last night. One was on a sharp curve and the other on a change up.

His fast start may not be a fluke either. His BABIP is only .292. That leads one to believe that he can continue to hit at a high caliber and has arrived at a new level of production and potency. And while his defensive skills had already risen Wieters to the third most valuable catcher in baseball in 2011, if he has as good an offensive season as he is displaying thus far, he may leap to the top of the heap as the best catcher in the game today. And the best news is that he has arrived at this level at the age of 26. His best baseball is ahead of him.

American League Rookie of the Year

Choosing a top rookie from the American League looks to be tougher than the National League because the position players have far fewer at bats and the pitchers don't have as much sparkling statistics. As in the last post for the National League rookies, we'll look at the top positional rookies and then the pitchers. We'll then try to tie it up in a nice little bow of a conclusion.

The postional candidates include: Elvis Andrus, Gordan Beckham, Nolan Reimold and Matt Wieters. Not a lengthy list, but these guys are the only ones with at least 300 at bats and stats worth looking at. For the pitchers, we have: Brett Anderson, Andrew Bailey, Jeff Niemann and Rick Porcello. Toronto had two good rookies in Cecil and Romero, but their stats don't measure up to those listed above.

Again, we'll start with the positional players. The Fan will list each player followed by some stats. The stats will be OBP, OPS, OPS+, Stolen Bases, UZR (a fielding stat), WAR (worth over replacement) and FanGraph's dollar value:

Elvis Andrus: .331 .705 85 32 (in 38 attempts) 10.1 2.8 $12.8 million
Gordan Beckham: .349 .816 108 7 (in 11 attempts) -2.0 2.0 $9 million
Nolan Reimold: .365 .831 114 8 (in 10 attempts) -10.2 1.0 $4.5 million
Matt Wieters: .345 .762 97 0 (no attempts) NA 1.9 $8.6 million

Comments: Clearly, Reimold was the best hitter of the group, but his defense was poor in a relatively easy position. Wieters suffers from having no value added to his WAR based on fielding other than the positional adjustment. Andrus is the lightest hitting of the bunch but runs the bases well and is a spectacular fielder at an important position.

For the pitchers, the stats will be ERA+, WHIP, FIP, Batting Average Against, K/BB ratio, K9, H9 (homers per nine innings), Wins, WAR and value.

Brett Anderson: 101 1.268 3.67 .264 3.30 7.7 1.0 11 3.8 $17.0 million
Andrew Bailey: 221 .0898 2.59 .176 3.71 9.8 0.6 6 (plus 26 saves) 2.3 $10.4 million
Jeff Neimann: 116 1.349 4.09 .265 2.03 6.1 0.9 12 3.0 $13.4 million
Rick Porcello: 110 1.349 4.81 .270 1.63 4.5 1.2 14 1.7 $7.8 million

Comments: Porcello has the most wins and has spent his year battling in the pennant race. He had perhaps his best game this week against the Twins when it really mattered. Bailey has lights out numbers but his value as a closer will never be as high as a good starter. Both Anderson and Neimann have been great, but Anderson has been better overall.

Conclusions: If Elvis Andrus had a better year at the plate, even a league average year, he would have been the runaway favorite with his superior fielding and base running skills. But his lack of batting stats seem to give the value award to a pitcher.

Rookie of the Year (AL): Brett Anderson. (but the writers will pick Porcello)

Matt Wieters Settling In

Since this space featured a post concerning OLD catchers yesterday, it seemed like a good time to check in on Matt Wieters, the rookie catcher for the Baltimore Orioles. Remember him? During the spring, there wasn't a more highly anticipated rookie than Wieters. There was outrage (this blog was no exception) when he didn't make the club out of Spring Training and even more so when the Orioles started the season moribund. But then Wieters was called up as expected at the end of May. His start was rather sleep-inducing as he began slowly and the spotlight passed him by. How has the rest of the year gone?

The answer, happily, is that Wieters is starting to get comfortable in his new digs. Let's look at his season:

He started 2-11 in May. June wasn't a whole lot better. He started 21 games that month and batted .257. He was regularly in the bottom portion of the lineup and only had seven RBI for the whole month. His OPS was an unimpressive .691.

He hit a lot better in July and batted .323 for the month with a .364 OBP, but again, his production was limited as he had just three extra base hits the entire month and only drove in six.

Wieters regressed a bit in August as his playing time increased. In 24 games, he hit only .250 and had an OPS for the month of only .654. But he did double his previous month's extra base hit total and drove in thirteen runs, so that was a big improvement.

The Orioles have put Wieters in the third hole in the batting order and that's where they are hoping he will spend his career. September has shown signs that the move was warranted. His line for September is: .347/.412/.520. So after all is said and done, his season will end up right around league average in batting, and after the way he started, that's promising. It does appear that he was tentative and a little lost when he first arrived but is more aggressive and more comfortable.

Wieters also started slowly in the field. Base runners were stealing with ease against him early. But he has tightened it up and now stands at 26% for the season, which is just below the league average of 28%. The good news is that his caught stealing in high leverage situations is higher than the steals allowed in those same situations. Will he ever be great in this area? It seems too soon to tell.

Some times it is hard to live up to the great expectations that arise when a supposed "can't miss" prospect comes on the scene. The pressure of that situation must affect different players different ways. Most were disappointed by what Wieters showed early and moved their interest on to other things. But Wieters has marched on and is slowly getting his groove on. Time will tell if he will develop into an elite catcher in the major leagues. But after seeing what he's done over time, the prospects still seem like that will be a distinct probability.

Wieters Debut Uneventful

The Matt Wieters era began with a bit of a whimper last night as the kid got his first start and went 0-4 with a strikeout. He did have a chance for his first RBI with a liner to right with a man on third, but Mora was thrown out at the plate giving Wieters a DP on his scorecard.

He looked good behind the plate (whatever the heck that means). Bergeson pitched brilliantly for the Orioles and there are many that give catchers partial credit for such events, but that's always been sketchy to this here observer. Wieter didn't have to throw as nobody tried to steal anything.

The expectations are so high that it has to be hard for the kid. This Fan was watching the game and the kid looked tentative at the plate, like he was a boxer in the first round trying to feel out his opponent. Some coach should tell new guys that the best way to debut in the majors is to be aggressive. But oh well.

Tonight is another night.

The Matt Wieters Show Begins Today

Some of you might be sad to see the Gregg Zaun and Chad Moeller era end in Baltimore. After all, you may miss the .620 and .619 OPS they have respectively put up this year and the combined six RBI. Yes, you might miss the 24% success rate throwing out base stealers or the .571 OPS with runners in scoring position or the .164 batting average when leading off an inning. Heck, you may enjoy the daily buzz kill of those two old catchers. But cry as you might, the Matt Wieters era begins today.

If that first paragraph seems overly sarcastic, well...it probably was. To the Fan, a team is selling a product and is asking fans to buy ticket at market prices and watch the team on television. As such, each team has the responsibility to put the best product they can on the field. The Orioles' decision to start Wieters in the minors this spring was completely an economic decision to buy one more year before Wieters can go to arbitration and later become a free agent. It was a cynical and calculated decision not based on the best needs of the team or the fans and it stunk like rotten tomatoes.

Who knows, the kid could bomb and become another Felix Pie. Life does that some times. But the fans at least deserved a chance to dream and to root for a kid that brings a lot of hope to the franchise. Now that the Orioles are hopelessly out of contention, at least the fans will have something new to cheer for.

Good luck, Matt Wieters. We'll be rooting for you.