MLB Game Picks - Thursday: September 4, 2014

Wednesday provided a second straight kiss-your-sister 8-7 result. Whenever you have two aces like Felix Hernandez and Jon Lester, one of them has to win and it is like flipping the coin. I lost the toss. I did not expect Josh Collmenter to continue his really outstanding pitching and he did. I did not expect the Yankees to win. And they did behind a big night from Brian McCann. I did not expect the Angels to lose to the Astros again. And Justin Verlander had nothing yesterday. Those and more sabotaged some good picks like the Cubs, Nationals and Cardinals.

There are only eight games on the schedule today and surprisingly, none are day games. Here are my Thursday picks:

• The Yankees over the Red Sox: Not having Dustin Pedroia in the lineup really hurts the already hurting offense of the Red Sox and while Chris Capuano is not a guy to stake my reputation on, Brandon Workman isn't either.
• The Orioles over the Reds: Mike Leake is very unpredictable and could hurt this pick, but the Orioles are always the team to pick these days, especially behind Chris Tillman who always looks beatable, but always seems to win.
• The Rays over the Blue Jays: I like the Rays chances against Mark Buehrle today. Buehrle will keep it to four runs or under so the key is Jake Odorizzi who has shown flashes of brilliance lately.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: This is probably a stupid pick but I'm feeling Robbie Ross Jr. after his last start and because as a lefty, he might give the Mariners' offense some trouble. Besides, Roenis Elias is not all that reliable and has lost his last three starts.
• The Angels over the Twins: The Angels have gone a little cold here lately and when Mike Trout doesn't hit, this team has problems. That said, they are better than the Twins and I will take Hector Santiago over Kyle Gibson.
• The Brewers over the Cardinals: You should know me by now in that I never trust a pitcher coming back from a long absence on the DL. Though I will say this: If Michael Wacha can come back and be Michael Wacha, that is a huge boost to the Cardinals down the stretch. I like Wily Peralta at home here.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: This pick went all wrong yesterday. But I'm feeling good picking against the D-backs today because Randall Delgado is starting. I am not knocking him. It's just that he hasn't gone more than three innings in an outing since early in the season. I will take Ian Kennedy here.

And the Game of the Day

• The Tigers over the Indians: I got this wrong yesterday thanks to Verlander. But also because Danny Salazar was outstanding. I don't think Trevor Bauer can match that performance and Max Scherzer is still the Tigers' ace.

Yesterday: 8-7, September: 24-19, Games of the Day: 86-60 (+1), Season: 1154-953

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: May 15, 2014

The last four full scheduled days had me on a streak of 8-7 finishes. Last night saw two games postponed because of weather and I finished 8-5. So what does that say? Would I have finished 8-7 if those two games had been played? The way it has been going, probably.

David Ortiz has hit four home runs in the last two days against the Twins. You would think the Twins would get up in his grill a little bit. At the very least, work around the guy. Congrats to Anthony DeSclafani for his first Major League win. The guy done himself proud.

Thursday's picks:

• The Reds over the Padres: This is the makeup game from yesterday. And I still think it will be a good pitchers' duel with Johnny Cueto being slightly better than Ian Kennedy.
• The Red Sox over the Twins: There are a lot of things going on here. Clay Buchholz has started the season miserably. But he was better his last time out. Phil Hughes has had a very good start to his season, but I'm not so sure he can hold off the hot Boston team.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: These two teams were rained out yesterday and that game won't be made up until the end of August. But the two pitchers from yesterday are still scheduled to start today. That said, I'll still take Michael Wacha over Jason Hammel in a close game.
• The Padres over the Reds: I could not find who was starting for the Reds today no matter where I looked. Even Twitter failed me. That said, I'll go with the Padres and Robbie Ross.
• The Indians over the Blue Jays: The Indians are playing better and the concern with the Blue Jays is always the pitching. For example, today's game will be started by J.A. Happ. Happ has an occasional good day followed usually by nine bad ones. Danny Salazar has to throw strikes and get ahead in the count against the powerful Jays' lineup.
• The Mets over the Yankees: This will be a fascinating day in Citi Field as two pitchers make their Major League debuts. I have no idea whether Jacob deGrom and his flying hair will be any better than Chase Whitley. I only pick it this way because deGrom has had more time at Triple A than Whitley.
• The Royals over the Orioles: The Royals have given the O's a handful in the last two days. And then they get the flame thrower, Yordano Ventura. Have fun with that. Wei-Yin Chen goes for the Orioles.
• The Angels over the Bay Rays: I have had good success sticking with Tyler Skaggs, so I will do so again. I like him and feel the Angels stole a good pitcher here in the off season. The Rays will start Erik Bedard. Eh.
• The Marlins over the Giants: Is Matt Cain the Giants' Sabathia? After all those innings, Cain has seemingly hit a wall. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi is throwing gas, but not always getting the results to go with it.

And the Game of the Day

• The Brewers over the Pirates: I always like to pick Yovani Gallardo at home and Wandy Rodriguez just cannot seem to get going due to injuries and rust.

Yesterday: 8-5, May: 106-89, Games of the Day: 19-22, Season: 339-261

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: May 6, 2014

The good news was that I finally had a Game of the Day pick go my way. The bad news was that a lot of the rest of the picks messed up. The biggest thing that hurt me yesterday was the three extra-inning games. All three ended up on the opposite side of what I predicted. Now that is lousy luck right there.

Tuesday returns to a full slate of games and here are the picks:

• The Dodgers over the Nationals: I do not usually like to pick a pitcher coming off the disabled list. But Clayton Kershaw is no ordinary pitcher. And it adds to my thinking that Blake Treinen is making his first MLB start for the Nats.
• The Indians over the Twins: Sam Deduno can be pretty good at times and the Twins are playing better than the Indians. But I'm going with Josh Tomlin being able to go deeper in the game than Deduno.
• The Giants over the Pirates: The Pirates are finally starting to hit and their pitching falls apart. Both teams will have tired bullpens. Therefore, I am going with Tim Hudson over Charlie Morton.
• The Phillies over the Blue Jays: Cole Hamels has gone 6-18 since I predicted he would win the Cy Yong Award before the 2013 season. Woof. And Drew Hutchison has very good stuff. But this is one of those trap picks. I can feel it.
• The Tigers over the Astros: It does not bother me to pick a guy, Robbie Ray, making his MLB debut tonight because the Tigers are on fire and the Astros are cold as ice. Brett Oberholtzer can't seem to buy a win or a run, or anything from his team. Rays' minor league K/9 rate is down, but the lefty has suddenly found great control.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: I like Chris Tillman a lot and he can be a shut down guy at times. But I'm going with Chris Archer who has been hard to beat at home. On the road is another story, but at home, he's been very good.
• The Red Sox over the Reds: There is enough red in this game to make Senator McCarthy blanch. Felix Doubront is fighting for his rotation spot at Fenway, which is the good news. Homer Bailey is hit or miss...literally.
• The Marlins over the Mets: You cannot pick against the Marlins at home right now, can you? I know it has to end some time. How long has this home stand been? It seems like they have been home for a month. Henderson Alvarez over Bartolo Colon.
• The Cardinals over the Braves: Gosh, the Braves have gone cold. Having Gavin Floyd back to start this game does not fill me with confidence for them. But Tyler Lyons doesn't do much for me either.
• The Cubs over the White Sox: This pick did not do much for me yesterday. And I have picked twice in a row against Edwin Jackson and was wrong both times. And the White Sox are starting Hector Noesi, who has been punted by two teams already this season.
• The Rockies over the Rangers: The Rangers are suddenly kind of a mess. And they are not having fun at Coors Field. That should continue today. Robbie Ross (it must be Robbie Day) will not get it done but Juan Nicasio will.
• The Angels over the Yankees: The Yankees are in a really bad stretch. Nothing they seem to do is working. Hiroki Kuroda hasn't been very good. C.J. Wilson handled the Yankees easily the last time he faced them.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: Jesse Chavez needs to bounce back from his last start and being at home should help that happen. Roenis Elias looked great against the Yankees, but every pitcher has looked great against the Yankees.
• The Padres over the Royals: Being a fan of the Royals has to be the most frustrating thing ever. The way they finished the season last year and then stumbling and bumbling this year? Sheesh. Robbie Erlin (I told you it was Robbie Day) over Jeremy Guthrie.

And the Game of the Day

• The Brewers over the Diamondbacks: The Brewers just keep rolling along and the Diamondbacks keep rolling under. Marco Estrada has pitched well. Josh Collmenter would not be a starter I would ever pick to win a game.

Yesterday: 6-7, May: 37-32, Games of the Day: 15-17, Season: 270-206

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: April 15, 2014

I almost had a perfect night. I was 7-0 with one game suspended and the Angels, which I picked over the A's had a one run lead heading into the last inning. A one-out pinch hit homer by Jaso off of Frieri later, and the pick went bye-bye. I was that close.

Oh well. Even so, the picks are 27-10 over the last three days, so that is a pretty good run.

There are sixteen games to pick today. They have to finish the Reds - Pirates game, which was suspended. Here are the picks:

• The Pirates over the Reds: The Pirates have the better bullpen, so I will lean towards them in a short game.
• The Phillies over the Braves: It seemed like the Phillies just handed the game ot the Braves last night. Weird. Tonight might be different. Cliff Lee usually pitches well against the Braves and young David Hale is having command issues.
• The Yankees over the Cubs: Masahiro Tanaka should have no issues with the Cubs' lineup and the only issue is whether the Yankees can solve Jason Hammel, something they have struggled with in the past.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: I like Jake Odorizzi in this one much more than I like Miguel Gonzalez.
• The Tigers over the Indians: The Indians never seem to beat the Tigers. So that is the way I am leaning here. Anibal Sanchez goes for the Tigers and Zach McAllister goes for the Indians.
• The Pirates over the Reds: Gerrit Cole has been pitching really well and Mike Leake is always a puzzle to me. Will Leake win? Depends. Ha!
• The Nationals over the Marlins: I keep picking Stephen Strasburg like he is infallible. But I usually get disappointed. Still, if he does his thing and strikes out ten or more, he should win over Tom Koehler.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: When did it go from Robbie Ross to Robert Ross, Jr.? Anyway, the only reason I am picking Ross is because the Mariners are pitching Blake Beavan.
• The Red Sox over the White Sox: Jake Peavy goes back to Chicago and should pitch well there. He faces Erik Johnson, the kind of young pitcher the Red Sox usually munch up to mulch.
• The Brewers over the Cardinals: I don't know what ails Shelby Miller, but he has not been the same guy as he was early last year. I expect the Brewers to strike here and have a good performance at home by Marco Estrada.
• The Blue Jays over the Twins: Good old Phil Hughes has brought his homer-prone ways with him to the Twins. That is not a good thing against the Blue Jays. Brandon Morrow's last start was encouraging.
• The Mets over the Diamondbacks: If the Dbacks lose a second straight to the lowly Mets, then stuff is going to start hitting the fan. Jenrry Mejia has the kind of stuff to win and should be better than Bronson Arroyo.
• The Angels over the Athletics: Let's try this again, shall we? Garrett Richards has become really good and Dan Straily is just okay. If those two things hold true, the Angels should win.
• The Padres over the Rockies: I like Robbie Erlin quite a bit and so I am going with him over Juan Nicasio. This might be a mistake because Nicasio is usually pretty solid.
• The Giants over the Dodgers: I just don't believe in Josh Beckett. Then again, it is hard to believe in Tim Lincecum these days either. So who knows. The Giants are the home team.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Royals over the Astros: If Yordano Ventura becomes as good as he looks, can we call him Ace Ventura? Please? The Royals have just not gelled yet but should be able to beat Lucas Harrell.

Yesterday: 7-1, Games of the Day: 6-5, Season: 116-77

The obscure pitching awards of 2013

I have spent about a week now covering the darker side of baseball statistics encompassing the 2013 season. Call it a balancing of the books when it comes to the regular Awards Season that spends most of our time celebrating the greatness of players during this past season. For every Gold Glove, there are iron ones. For every Rolaids Relief Pitchers there were those that gave the heartburn. What follows are some of the more obscure pitching awards that will not be celebrated when they hand out the trophies.

The Lack of Deception Award
These starting pitchers did not make a living fooling anybody. Cole Hamels led starting pitchers by getting batters to swing at 37.7% of pitches outside the strike zone. These pitchers? Not so much. The four starting pitchers (minimum 100 innings) who least enticed batters to swing at pitches out of the strike zone were:

1. Sam Deduno - 24.1%
2. Jason Marquis - 24.5%
3. Felix Doubront - 24.9%
4. Nathan Eovaldi - 25%

The relief pitchers with the least amount of swings out of the strike zone were:

1. Sam LeCure - 25.4%
2. Kevin Gregg - 25.5%
3. David Robertson and Dale Thayer - 25.8%

The Starting Off With the Left Foot Award
Everyone makes a big deal out of first pitch strikes. "Get ahead on the count," the adage goes. Throwing a first pitch strike would be getting the at bat off on the right foot. These pitchers are not listening. The relief pitchers with the lowest percentage of first pitch strikes were:

1. Ryan Pressly - 45.7%
2. Jim Henderson - 48.6%
3. Josh Roenicke - 50.4%
4. Yoernis Medina and Tim Collins - 51.9%

The starting pitchers with the lowest percentage of first pitch strikes were:

1. Matt Moore - 50.9%
2. Samuel Deduno - 51.4%
3. Zack Wheeler - 52%
4. Ivan Nova - 52.7%  (pronounced, "Nover," if you are Jerry Remy)

Not that the opposite guaranteed success. Phil Hughes led the Majors in first pitch strike percentage (over 70%!) and that did not exactly lead him to a good season.

The Here It Is, Hit It and Hit It and Hit It Award
Everyone loves a pitcher that can miss bats. Francisco Liriano missed more bats than anyone in the Majors in 2013, followed closely by Yu Darvish. These starting pitchers did not miss many bats at all. The starting pitchers with the lowest percentage of swinging strikes were:

1. Jake Westbrook and Jeremy Guthrie - 5.1%
2. Lucas Harrell - 5.2%
3. Mike Pelfrey - 5.3%
4. Ryan Vogelsong - 5.4%

The relief pitchers with the lowest swinging strike percentages were:

1. Burke Badenhop - 5.9%
2. Seth Maness - 6.6%
3. Kevin Gregg - 7.0%

The Duck for Cover Award
The relief pitchers with the highest line drive percentages allowed were:

1. Robbie Ross - 28.4%
2. Jim Henderson - 28.3%
3. Greg Holland - 27.3%
4. Junichi Tazawa - 27.2%

The starting pitchers with the highest line drive percentages were:

1. Wade Davis - 28.6%
2. Ryan Vogelsong - 27.1%
3. Corey Kluber - 26.3%
4. Barry Zito - 25.5%

The Confound the Fielding Scouts Award
How do you set your defense when your pitcher's offerings always seem to find a hole in that defense? The starting pitchers with the highest opposing BABIPs were:

1. Wade Davis - .376 - which makes sense with his LD percentage.
2. Joe Blanton - .351
3. Barry Zito - .347

The relief pitchers with the highest BABIPs allowed were:

1. Jose Mijares - .410    Holy smokes!
2. Carter Capps - .365
3. Oliver Perez - .361

No one else was close!

The Outfielder Whiplash Award
Everyone loves the long ball...unless you are a pitcher. The relief pitchers with the highest percent of their fly balls going over the fence were:

1. Chris Perez - 20%
2. Brandon League - 19%
3. Carter Capps - 18.8%
4. Heath Bell - 18.5%
5. Kelvin Herrera - 18%

The starting pitchers with the highest percentage of fly balls going over the fence were:

1. Roberto Hernandez - 21.1%  (!)
2. Esmil Rogers - 18.5%
3. Jason Marquis - 18.2%
4. Joe Blanton - 18%

The Conga Line Award
These pitchers gave up the most base runners of any starting pitcher

1. Joe Saunders - 308
2. Jeff Samardzija and Jeremy Guthrie - 307
3. CC Sabathia - 304

These relief pitchers (90% or more appearances were in relief) with the most base runners were:

1. Anthony Swarzak and Josh Collmenter - 116
2. Adam Warren and TJ McFarland - 114

The Cannot Be Blocked Award

• These relief pitchers led all of baseball with nine wild pitches: Adam Ottavino, Cody Allen, Brandon League, Grant Balfour and Al Alburquerque. Alburquerque did his in the least amount of innings with 49 IP.

These starting pitcher led all of baseball with wild pitches:

1. Matt Moore and Trevor Cahill - 17
2. Edinson Volquez - 16

The Pitching From the Stretch Award

• Three Colorado Rockies' players tied for the lead with the most balks at three: Rex Brothers, Edgmer Escalona and Wilton Lopez. I think the Rockies need to hold a seminar on this thing as they easily led the Majors with 15 balks. No other team had more than eight. Stephen Strasburg also had three.

The Free Pass Award

• I don't know if this award should go to the manager or the pitcher...probably the manager. But Ronald Belisario walked the most batters on purpose with ten. Three others tied with eight.

The Aren't Walks and Strikeouts the Same Award
These starting pitchers (100 IP minimum) had the lowest strikeout to walk ratios in the Majors:

1. Jake Westbrook - 0.88  The only pitcher with more walks than strikeouts.
2. Lucas Harrell - 1.01
3. Jason Marquis - 1.06

The relief pitchers (40 IP minimum) with the lowest strikeout to walk ratios were:

1. Sandy Rosario - 1.20
2. Josh Roenicke - 1.25
3. Bryan Morris - 1.32
4. Tom Wilhelmsen - 1.36

The Let's Not Turn Two Award

• Aaron Harang gets special mention here. Despite allowing 199 base runners via hit, walk or HBP, Harang only induced four double-plays all season. Amazing.

The Run at Will Award

• Yovani Gallardo, Matt Moore, Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez pitched a combined 807.2 innings and not a single base steal attempt was stopped while they were pitching. At least Gallardo and Eovaldi picked one guy off.
• John Lackey led all of baseball with 36 successful base steals against. Scott Feldman was second with 30.

The Not Left On Base Award
Five starting pitchers ended up having 35% or more of all the base runners they put on base score. That could be bad luck, bad pitching, bad fielding, whatever. But it is what it is. The lowest left on base percentages for starters were:

1. Jordan Lyles - 62.8%
2. Edwin Jackson - 63.3%
3. Lucas Harrell - 64.3%
4. Edinson Volquez - 64.4%
5. Ryan Vogelsong - 64.7%

I probably could go on all day here, but after a couple of hours, my stomach is grumbling. Happy Veterans Day!