Starlin Castro and his nosedive

Starlin Castro of the Chicago Cubs burst onto the scene as a twenty year old kid in 2010. In his next 445 games for the Cubs, he belted out 529 hits including 96 doubles, 26 triples and 27 home runs. He looked like the brightest young shortstop in the game. Before the spring of 2013, there were legal troubles and the entire 2013 season was a wash for him offensively as everything went downhill. What went wrong with Starlin Castro and will he right himself in 2014?

If you look at the counting stats, you can see just how far Castro fell in 2014. Here are his string of OPS figures for his seasons thus far: 755, 773, .753, .631. Which number doesn't fit in there? Yeah, it is that obvious.

There are many opinions as to what happened. Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs.com believes that a more patient approach was forced on him and it backfired.  Another source, which I cannot seem to find at the moment, believed that BABIP was at least partially to blame.

Let's look at a couple of these insights to see what they are about. First. Sullivan makes a good point in that the Cubs encouraged Castro to see more pitches and he did. The problem, as Sullivan points out, was that Castro was very successful on the first pitch and by not swinging at the first pitch, he lost one of his best weapons.

Sullivan also shows that despite seeing more pitches, Castro did not walk any more than he did in the past and in fact, walked less. His walk rate was the lowest of his career and the strikeout rate was his highest.

The BABIP theory might be part of Sullivan's theory. Perhaps losing the first pitch to jump on, Castro's contact success suffered. If you look at Castro's heat maps for each of his years, his contact led to over a .300 average on just about every quadrant of the plate and even just off the outside corner and middle in as well.

If you look, then, at his heat map for 2013, only the upper third of the plate led to contact that was productive and just off the plate, middle-in was his happy zone. Every other quadrant of the plate was awful.

To me, the biggest "tell" is his success on line drives, or I should say the lack of it in 2013. Here are Castro's BABIPs on line drives for his career (starting in 2010): .738, .739, .716 and .593. Again, which number doesn't fit?

That is a naturally low BABIP on line drives. The Major League average is around the .660 mark. Castro has been super consistent in the number of line drives he hits per season. The difference was that in 2013, less of them found free space.

Starlin Castro also hits about 1.5 ground balls for every fly ball, or nearly 50% of his batted balls. Whether it is due to poorer contact, better defensive positioning or what, but his BABIP on fly balls also suffered. After being in the .228 to .254 range for his first his first three years, it fell off to .177 according to Baseball-reference.com.

The thing that hurts the most about Castro's season in 2013 is that he was particularly awful against teams in his own division. He was good against the Cardinals. He has always been good against the Cardinals. But look at these OPS figures against the rest of the division: Reds - .432 (!), Brewers - .599 and Pirates - .491. He has always been pretty successful against all those teams in the past.

So what does the future hold for Starlin Castro? That depends on a few things that helped cause such a bad season. Perhaps his head was in a bad space between the legal troubles last spring and the lawsuit and counter-lawsuit going on in the Dominican Republic. Perhaps he was just unlucky with his line drives and twenty more of them will fall in for him in 2014. Perhaps the Cubs will allow him to go back to hacking at first pitches. After all, he is never going to be a patient hitter. That is just not who he is.

The important thing for the Cubs is that Castro is a plus player at a thin position around the Majors if he has an OPS of .750. But another season in the .630 range will have to force them to rethink the future with him.

For the Cubs, Starlin Castro has to be better against his NL Central opponents and he has to have be better than he was in 2013. It will be one of the more interesting stories to watch in the coming season.

Elvis Andrus Versus Starlin Castro

We have already talked about the dearth of good shortstops in the majors, particularly in the American League. The National League has more good shortstops, but overall, the picture in the majors is bleak. Two of the new breed of shortstops have caused quite a buzz in their early career stages. Both entered the majors and an astoundingly young age. Elvis Andrus is entering his third season for the Rangers and he doesn't turn 23 until August. Starlin Castro made many of us groan when he became the first player in the majors who was born in the 1990s. The question posed here is: If you had a choice of the two, which would you want? Oh! And before the Fan forgets, Ian Desmond could fit into this conversation since he too is young. But he hasn't created the buzz of Castro and Andrus. So if you want Desmond in the conversation, you might have to write your own post.

First, we'll dispense with the easy part. Neither Andrus or Castro will be banging balls out of the park. Castro hit three in his rookie season and judging from his minor league career, that's the most you can expect. Some of the projections have Castro hitting six homers in 2011, but that isn't very significant. Andrus hit six homers his rookie season but hit zippo, nadda, none in 2010. It's pretty hard to go 674 plate appearances, half of which are in a good hitting park, and not hit a homer. Heck, Even Brett Gardner hit five of them. So power isn't their game. But for Andrus, it goes beyond that. In 1,215 plate appearances in his first two years, Andrus only hit 32 total doubles and added 11 triples. That's not exactly punching the ball with authority. Castro on the other hand, hit 31 doubles and five triples in his rookie season. Castro's slugging percentage then was .408. Andrus has put together two seasons with his slugging percentage below that (.371 and .301). The .301 is incredibly low for a full time player. Advantage, Castro.

Castro also hit for average as he batted a nice and even .300 his rookie season. Andrus has hit .267 and .265 his first two seasons. Advantage Castro. But that may be evened out by their walk percentage. Andrus walked 9.5 percent of the time in 2010. Castro finished with a walk percentage of 5.7 percent. Thus, Castro's on base percentage was .347 and Andrus finished at .342. That's a virtual wash.

Andrus strikes out with greater proficiency. He struck out 16.3 percent of the time in 2010. That's a little lower than his minor league stats, so it shows he is cutting down some on the strikeouts. Castro finished with a strikeout rate of 15.7 percent, which again is nearly a wash. The one difference is that Castro averaged a lot less strikeouts in the minors, and his 2011 figure should be a lot lower than his rookie season. Andrus swings at far less pitches out of the strike zone (21 percent) compared to Castro (32 percent) and Andrus makes contact at a slightly higher rate when he swings. Add all those up and it looks like you again have a wash.

Elvis Andrus appears to be the better base runner of the two. His speed component is 5.7 compared to 4.7 for Castro. And Andrus stole 15 bases in 18 attempts. Castro tried to steal 18 times and was only successful 10 times. Seems like he should be better at stealing than that. Advantage Andrus with the one reservation that with his speed, he should convert more of his singles into doubles.

Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro both had remarkably similar line drive percentages (19.5 and 19.3 respectively). Both hit many more ground balls than fly balls. But Andrus hit much less line drives in 2010 than he did in 2009 and hit more ground balls. More on that later.

Now we get to fielding and for a shortstop, that's a pretty important component of value. Castro made 27 errors in his rookie season. Only Ian Desmond made more. Andrus only committed 16 errors after making 22 his first season. But as we know now, fielding percentage isn't the only thing we need to look at. UZR, despite its problems, at least breaks fielding down into three categories, which help us see a fielder's overall skill. There are the errors, the range and the double play success. Obviously, Andrus bested Castro in the error department (Castro almost cost the Cubs a full win with his errors). But Castro shows much more range and is given better ratings in converting double plays. Combine them all together and Andrus comes out on top with a Fangraphs' final score of 0.1 for his fielding (down from 2009 though). Castro, due largely for his errors, scored a -2.1. Advantage, at least for now, to Andrus.

Just one more note about fielding. According to the Fans Scouting report, Andrus has better instincts, a better first step, better speed, gets rid of the ball quicker and is slightly more accurate. Castro has the greater arm strength. Their overall scouting score in the field gives Andrus a 76 score and Castro a 62. Those scores seem to give Andrus a clear edge on the fielding side.

The thing the Fan likes about WAR is that it combines all of these things into one score. It's not the be all and end all to the discussion, but it's a good place to look. Castro, in about a dozen less games than Andrus, finished with a WAR of 2.0 (Fangraphs version). Andrus finished up at 1.5 (down from 3 the year before).

After going through this whole process, the Fan has gotten himself very confused. Andrus had a higher value his rookie year than Castro did his. But Andrus second year was half as valuable as the year before and under what Castro did for his rookie year. It appears that Castro will always be the better hitter, while Andrus gets on base more with walks and runs the bases better. Andrus is also the better fielder. The Fan guesses that the final conclusion on these two will have to wait a few years until we have more of an idea how their careers progress. They are both so young and have all those years ahead of them.

We should spend a moment here and talk about Andrus' offense. It has to be a great concern to the Rangers that Andrus is not making progress as a hitter. With his line drive percentage down and his ground ball percentage up, it would seem that Andrus seems content to be a slap hitter. But that may not be in his best interest as his "slaps" wind up as outs too often. How long will the Rangers be willing to live with a shortstop with a .301 slugging percentage? Again, Andrus does offer the Rangers an excellent fielder on the left side, which when combined with Adrian Beltre, should certainly prevent a lot of runs. But again, the Rangers had to have expected a lot more offense than Elvis has shown. It will be interesting to see what kind of year Andrus has in 2011.

So what do you think? Who would you take? Elvis Andrus? Or do you like the upside to Starlin Castro better? It's a tough call, isn't it?

Youth on Parade

Spent the day traveling from Maine to Florida yesterday and thankfully, everything went smoothly and the Fan and his lovely wife are safely ensconced in what will be our home for the next three weeks. That meant that last evening, the Fan got to watch some Florida baseball which was conveniently provided by the interleague schedule that pitted the Marlins versus the Bay Rays on the Bay Rays' television telecast (the better of the two). It was a day that rookie, Sean Rodriguez, got a big hit with all his family in the stands. But that fact was ruined by the Marlins' uber-phenom, Mike Stanton, hitting his first major league homer...a bomb of a grand slam that tilted the game to the Marlins.

The grand slam was fairly amazing too. It was a 94 MPH fastball from Matt Garza on the outward part of the plate and about arm pit high. Stanton's swing was lightning quick and he turned on that pitch and deposited it in the left field seats. The Fan remembers thinking at the time that all the hype about this guy was accurate. Stanton also made a really great play in right field on a ball slicing away from him toward foul territory. His long lope made up a lot of ground getting to that ball.

But Florida baseball wasn't the only place where young phenoms strutted their stuff. In Pittsburgh, Cleveland's Carlos Santana went two for two plus two walks and he drove in a run. One of the hits was his fourth double (already). Unfortunately, on the other side of the field, Pedro Alvarez still doesn't have a hit since being called up by the Pirates (just their luck). Hopefully the team will stick with him and give him a chance.

Up in Chicago, the Cubs' Tyler Colvin had a big game going two for four with a walk. He scored two runs and drove in three. And he hit his eighth homer. He's now batting .312. His teammate, Starlin Castro, went one for three with a walk. His one hit was a double. Despite the phenom tandem, the Cubs lost mostly due to poor defense from Baker and Lee.

Up in New York, Ike Davis went one for four with an RBI in the Mets' win. Francisco Cervelli, not really in the phenom category, but a good young catcher, went two for four in a losing cause.

In Detroit, Brennan Boesch went 0 - 3 but did walk and scored a run in the Tigers' victory. He still has a 1.007 OPS. Pretty impressive debut!

Toronto's Brandon Morrow out dueled Barry Zito and kept the Blue Jays in the game long enough to scratch out three runs and win the game. Boston's 22 year old Felix Doubront overcame some early defensive lapses and earned his first major league win in his first big league start.

Texas had a good day for their young talent as Justin Smoak had a big day going two for five with the two hits being a homer and a double. He drove in four runs and scored two. He's started slowly, but he's going to be really good. Meanwhile, in the bullpen, young Darren O'Day pitched a perfect eigth inning and lowered his ERA as a reliever to 1.92 including a WHIP of 0.92.

In a battle of pitching phenoms, Baltimore's Brian Matusz pitched brilliantly for six innings but was matched pitch for pitch by San Diego's Wade LeBlanc. It became a battle of the bullpens and San Diego will win those every time while the Orioles will lose that every time. It went as predicted.

And last but not least, Stephen Strasburg put on another show. This time against the White Sox and not the lowly Pirates, Strasburg gave up a run on two hits in the first inning, but was brilliant the rest of the way. He pitched seven full innings while striking out ten batters and issued no walks. His WHIP after his first three big league starts? How about 0.78. Unfortunately, he got a no-decision as his team couldn't muster more than a run. His buddy and fellow first round pick, Drew Storen, pitched admirably for two innings but got the hard luck loss.

Everywhere you looked around baseball, young players were doing exciting things. It sure is a fun time to be a Fan, no?

Phenom Report Card

This has been the year of the phenom so far as several teams have their top prospects on the 25 man rosters. It's been exciting to watch in most cases and a bit disappointing in others. And Strasburg hasn't even arrived yet. He threw six no-hit innings yesterday so perhaps it's just a matter of time now. Mid-May seems a good time to get a report card of how these new hopes are doing. Hopefully, the Fan won't leave any out.

Jason Heyward: Heyward continues to impress and despite a muscle problem in his leg that kept him out a while, he is among the league leaders in Runs Batted In and Runs Scored. His .431 OBP, 1.044 OPS and 177 OPS+ are all big numbers. As a left-handed batter, he is holding his own against left-handed pitching with a .917 OPS and a .400 OBP. His fielding has been just south of league average in right field, but that should improve as he gets more comfortable. No assists yet in the outfield. Heyward was batting most of the year in the sixth position in the batting order. But the last two games has featured him batting third and he's responded really well to that with two great games. Heyward has certainly lived up to the hype. Grade A+

Starlin Castro: Hey, it's only been six games so far. Hardly fair to give a report card on such a small sample size. But the bottom line here is that he's been Sterling Starlin at the plate and Starvin' Starlin in the field. You can't ask for more at the dish as Castro has shown that he can hit major league pitching. He currently sports a nifty 167 OPS+ and most impressively, he's only struck out twice. He's got a triple, a homer and a double among his eight hits. Defensively, he's really struggled. His five errors in six games are alarming and already that total is the fifth highest error total in the league. He made 39 errors in the minors last year in only 119 games so his defense is a work in progress, to put it at its most kind. Grade B+

Mike Leake: Who needs the minor leagues? Last year, Leake was pitching college ball. This year, he's 3-0 with the Reds with a 3.10 ERA. He's pitched very well with a WHIP thus far of 1.205. He's given up only three homers which is the fewest among the Reds' starters plus he is batting over .300. Not a bad start for the young guy. There are a few areas of concern. He's been a bit lucky so far with a .257 BABIP and his walk rate is a bit high at 3.8 per 9. His K/BB ratio is at 1.65 and you'd like to see that over 2 in time. He's off to a great start, but those latter numbers bear watching. I has to be exciting though for Reds' fans with Leake, Bailey and Cueto all being 24 years of age or younger and Aroldis Chapman on the way. Grade B+

Cleveland's Young Pitching Rotation: Huff (25), Masterson (25), Carmona (26) and Talbot (26) are not really young enough to be phenoms but they are still all young. Carmona and Talbot have had success in the wins column and both have walked more than they have struck out. That's a bit worrisome. Talbot has thrown two stinkers in a row. Huff hasn't shown last year's success, but he's been better of late. He pitches to contact and how he does is totally dependent on his BABIP rate. The one mystery has been Masterson. He seems to have an uncanny ability to have his contacts falling in for hits. His strikeouts per nine and his K/BB ratio are out of this world though. So he still has a world of promise. He just needs to find a way for the balls put in play to find their way into somebody's mitt. Grade C

Jhoulys Chacin: Two starts don't make a career, but man is he off to a great start. No homers allowed, a 3.2 K/BB ratio, 16 Ks in 15.1 innings all add up to overpowering. When De La Rosa comes off the disabled list, there is no way in the world this guy should go back to the minors. He's not going to maintain a WHIP of 0.783 all year, but he's been awesome so far. Grade A+

Austin Jackson: Everybody keeps waiting for him to come back to earth, but it is mid-May and he's still batting .354 with an OPS+ of 137. His 27 runs scored and his 51 hits lead the American League but so does his 42 strikeouts. He's 2 for his last 12 at bats so he's having his first rough patch of the season. His BABIP is what most people cite as their problem with his performance thus far and they are right as it is an obscene .495. There is no way he can maintain that. Jackson's fielding stats are below league average so far. After watching a few of his games, he looks smooth enough out there and gets to balls quickly. But the numbers don't add up to what the eyes are seeing. Grade A

Ike Davis: The Mets have been a different team since Davis arrived on the scene. The numbers he has put up thus far have been steady if not spectacular. His .405 OBP and his 136 OPS+ are certainly impressive enough. He has struck out 19 times in 21 games, but that is part of his MO, so as long as he produces, the K's are tolerated. His BABIP is a bit high at .354 suggesting he will come down a bit in average, but not alarmingly so. He's not hitting well in high leverage situations which needs to be improved upon. As far as his fielding, he's not elite, but he's made three great plays and he's a darn sight improvement over Tatis, Jacobs or Murphy. Grade B+

Kyle Blanks: Killer Kyle has not gotten untracked yet for the Padres. As well as they are playing, if he can get going, how good can they be? His OBP of .311 is fairly impressive for a guy batting .180, but it's hard to ignore that 180 after 106 at bats. He's struck out 41 times in 28 games and really needs to have some of his other counting stats justify that Mark Reynolds-like whiff total. His fielding in left has been okay which is all you can ask of a left fielder. Blanks needs to stop shooting blanks and soon. Grade D

Matt Latos: Matt Latos has pitched far better than his 2-3 record indicates. His K/BB ratio is great. His WHIP is 1.194 which leads all Padres' starters. His problem thus far has been homers as he has given up seven so far. But over all, you can't ask much more from a 22 year old starter. Grade A.

David Freese: Can you call Freese a phenom when he is 27 years old? Maybe. He was drafted only four years ago and is a solid part of the Cardinals' line up. All his numbers are above average including his .321 average and .400 OBP. He doesn't strike out at an alarming rate and his 22 RBIs are impressive indeed. As you could expect from all those runs driven in, he's batting really, really well in high leverage situations with a 1.081 OPS in those instances. That's terrific. As a right handed batter, he kills lefty pitching and is just okay against righties. His BABIP is slightly elevated at .386 so he could come down a bit in average over the long haul. His fielding has been solid at third. No problems there. Grade A.

Wade Davis: David came up last year so he might be a year beyond phenom-dom. But at 24 and a former top prospect, the Fan will include him in this list. It's hard to fault anything Davis has done in his six starts this year. His 3.12 ERA is solid. He's only given up three homers in 34 innings which is excellent. His 7.1 hits per nine innings is also excellent. The only thing holding Davis back is his control. His 4.8 walks per nine is too high and leads to an early high pitch count which gets him out of games far too soon. He's averaging just over five innings per start thus far as a result. But still, if this is the fifth guy in your rotation, that's pretty sweet stuff. Grade B.

Justin Smoak: Just a few weeks into his rookie campaign, it would be easy to dwell on Smoak's .194 batting average after 19 games. But the feeling here is that he's been on the unlucky side. His batting average on ground balls, for example is .000. That won't continue. He's shown great discipline at the plate with 12 walks in 19 games and only 11 strikeouts. He's already hit four homers and his OPS+ is over league average despite his average. His fielding at first has been excellent thus far too. Mr. Smoak will be just fine. Just give him some time and watch him fly. Grade B-

Travis Snider: Snider is only 22 and has already playing in his third season for the Blue Jays. This is the first time though where he is playing every day and his numbers are encouraging despite an early .232 batting average. His 112 OPS+ is already above league average and is simply going to go up as the year goes along. His strikeout rate (while a bit high) is lower than last year. His walk rate is higher and his .267 BABIP indicates he hasn't been lucky to this point. Snider had an awful April but his OPS has been 1.054 in May. Mark the Fan's words, Snider is going to be great. He'll never be great in the field. But there are worse right fielders... Grade B

Did the Fan leave anyone out? These guys above have been tremendously fun to watch and as the season progresses, it will be super interesting to see how these players develop.

It's Finally Happened

Yes, everyone now knows that the Starlin Castro era has begun in Chicago. And everyone knows that he drove in six runs in his first game in the major leagues. He's hitting a solid .286 and sure as shooting, the young man will have his good days and his bad days.

But one thing escaped this Fan's notice until just yesterday. And it was only a matter of time before this happened. But (correct the Fan if he's wrong) Castro is the first player born in the 1990s to play in the majors. Ugh! Now that's got to make you feel old.

Castro was born March 24, 1990. He is twenty years old. 1990 was when this Fan moved to northern Maine. It doesn't seem that long ago. This Fan is living in his seventh decade: 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, 00s, 10s. Castro is only a babe in this world. And he has the whole world in front of him.

It had to happen sooner or later. It's funny how this hurts much more than another birthday.