MLB Game Picks - Monday: August 25, 2014

Sunday ended up a game below .500 with the game picks. Some picks were really good like the Cubs finishing off the Orioles to sweep the series and the Mets beating the Dodgers. But others such as the Angels pouncing on Scott Kazmir and the Rays squeezing out a game against the Blue Jays threw me. I never expected the White Sox to lose with Chris Sale on the mound. And I was wrong about the Reds as they beat Aaron Harang behind the not-so-dead Alfredo Simon.

And it is official. The Cardinals trading for Justin Masterson was the worst deadline deal in recent memory.

The Game of the Day pick was wrong for the second day in a row. That trend has to stop. And it will be harder today because there are only ten games on the schedule.

Oh, and fantasy baseball is frustrating. This is my first year playing and my team put up unbelievable numbers yesterday both pitching and batting and the result was a zero point day. What!?

Monday's picks:

• The Pirates over the Cardinals: The Cardinals traditionally have trouble with lefties and Francisco Liriano pitches for the Pirates. IF he is on, he can beat anyone. John Lackey against Andrew McCutchen will be interesting to watch.
• The Orioles over the Rays: Baseball is a funny game. The Orioles just got shut down over the weekend by the Cubs, of all teams. But that is all meaningless on a Monday after it's over. Chris Tillman over Jake Odorizzi.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: The Phillies are a proud bunch and can still play spoilers. Look at what they did to the Cardinals yesterday. Tanner Roark is pretty special though and I don't think A.J. Burnett has much left in the tank.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Which streak will end tonight, the Red Sox' eight-game losing streak or J.A. Happ's three-game losing streak. I'm feeling Boston even if David Ortiz cannot play. Clay Buchholz is a mess right now though.
• The Yankees over the Royals: This is a make-up game from earlier in the season. I like Michael Pineda in this one over James Shields. The weekend for the Yankees with two walk-offs might be a jump starter.
• The Athletics over the Astros: The Astros swing and miss a lot and Jeff Samardzija should benefit from that. Scott Feldman has been decent for the Astros, but only the Lord knows how. I can't figure it out.
• The Angels over the Marlins: I am pretty darned skeptical about the Angels starting Wade LeBlanc. The Angels, however, can mash and Pujols, Trout and Hamilton are firing well right now. Jarred Cosart should not survive the onslaught.
• The Padres over the Brewers: Eric Stults has won his last three decisions and has pitched well in his last four outings. Kyle Lohse has lost his last three decisions and got pummeled in two of those. Of course, baseball being baseball, since I picked it this way, both of those streaks will reverse.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: Hopefully, Robinson Cano is okay and just needed fluids or something. Roenis Elias is the biggest Mariner wild card. But I do believe the Mariners were beat Miles Mikolas and the Rangers handily.

And the Game of the Day

• The Giants over the Rockies: The starting pitchers in this game are a combined 5-21. The difference is that one of them is Jake Peavy and he has won his last two. Tyler Matzek is not Jake Peavy and the Rockies are on the road.

Yesterday: 7-8, August: 185-142, Games of the Day: 79-57 (-2), Season: 1079-891

Wade LeBlanc and Line Drives

Just to illustrate how slim news is about Major League Baseball around Thanksgiving, this writer finds himself writing about John Baker and Wade LeBlanc. The catcher and pitcher (respectively) were swapped in a deal between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins yesterday. Baker was an effective offensive player for the Marlins in 2008 and 2009 but scored weakly on defense as far as we can tell from catching defensive metrics. Baker underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010 and is trying to build back to his previous levels. The Marlins have already moved on in the catching department which made Baker expendable. But Baker is only 30 as a catcher when that position stays in relatively high demand so he could help the Padres. But Wade LeBlanc?

The catch phrase when LeBlanc pitched in 2011 was, "Duck!" Batted ball trajectories have been tracked since 2002 and since that time, no pitcher in baseball has thrown at least 70 innings in a season and has given up the 32.8 percent line drives LeBlanc gave up in 2011. Think about that for a second. Almost one out of every three batters that put the ball in play off of Wade LeBlanc hit a rope somewhere. Why is this a bad thing? The average of all major league pitchers (in 130,940 balls in play) in 2011 was 18.7 percent line drives allowed. Why is this important? Because the collective OPS for major league batters on all line drives in 2011 was 1.689 with a batting average of .722 (!) and a slugging percentage of .971. Yikes! In other words, line drives will kill you. Line drives are how most hitters get paid.

Certainly, this can be a fluke statistic. LeBlanc's line drive percentages each season since 2008 go like this: 21.9 percent, 16.7 percent, 19.2 percent and then the 32.8 percent last year. But there is enough other stuff to paint a bleak pitcher picture. LeBlanc has a career ERA of 4.54 and a FIP of 4.85 despite pitching half his games in a pitchers park in San Diego his entire career. His home run per nine inning rate for his career is 1.35. That's not good. His hits per nine rate for his career stands at 9.4 and his career WHIP is 1.425.

And those numbers just mentioned are pretty compared to LeBlanc's away splits. Wade LeBlanc has a career ERA at San Diego of 2.97. On the road, his ERA for his career is 6.16. Oof. To top it all off, LeBlanc isn't a power arm and he isn't a finesse pitcher. He has historically only struck out batters at a 6.29 per nine clip. In 2011, that figure fell to 5.76. A guy with a fastball around 86.6 MPH needs to throw strikes, right? But LeBlanc has a career walks per nine of 3.47.

Add it all up and LeBlanc isn't a very good pitcher. That he's pitched parts of four years in the majors might be chalked up to the Padres selecting him in the second round once upon a time and the fact that he throws from the left side. In 291 career innings, Wade LeBlanc has a fWAR of -0.3 and an OPS+ of 81. The Marlins must have seen something they like to trade for him. But for this observer, right-handed pitchers who throw like Wade LeBlanc don't last as long as left-handers do. And if he has another season for the Marlins in 2012 like he did for the Padres in 2011, the Marlins' fielders better put some extra padding in their gloves just in case.

Youth on Parade

Spent the day traveling from Maine to Florida yesterday and thankfully, everything went smoothly and the Fan and his lovely wife are safely ensconced in what will be our home for the next three weeks. That meant that last evening, the Fan got to watch some Florida baseball which was conveniently provided by the interleague schedule that pitted the Marlins versus the Bay Rays on the Bay Rays' television telecast (the better of the two). It was a day that rookie, Sean Rodriguez, got a big hit with all his family in the stands. But that fact was ruined by the Marlins' uber-phenom, Mike Stanton, hitting his first major league homer...a bomb of a grand slam that tilted the game to the Marlins.

The grand slam was fairly amazing too. It was a 94 MPH fastball from Matt Garza on the outward part of the plate and about arm pit high. Stanton's swing was lightning quick and he turned on that pitch and deposited it in the left field seats. The Fan remembers thinking at the time that all the hype about this guy was accurate. Stanton also made a really great play in right field on a ball slicing away from him toward foul territory. His long lope made up a lot of ground getting to that ball.

But Florida baseball wasn't the only place where young phenoms strutted their stuff. In Pittsburgh, Cleveland's Carlos Santana went two for two plus two walks and he drove in a run. One of the hits was his fourth double (already). Unfortunately, on the other side of the field, Pedro Alvarez still doesn't have a hit since being called up by the Pirates (just their luck). Hopefully the team will stick with him and give him a chance.

Up in Chicago, the Cubs' Tyler Colvin had a big game going two for four with a walk. He scored two runs and drove in three. And he hit his eighth homer. He's now batting .312. His teammate, Starlin Castro, went one for three with a walk. His one hit was a double. Despite the phenom tandem, the Cubs lost mostly due to poor defense from Baker and Lee.

Up in New York, Ike Davis went one for four with an RBI in the Mets' win. Francisco Cervelli, not really in the phenom category, but a good young catcher, went two for four in a losing cause.

In Detroit, Brennan Boesch went 0 - 3 but did walk and scored a run in the Tigers' victory. He still has a 1.007 OPS. Pretty impressive debut!

Toronto's Brandon Morrow out dueled Barry Zito and kept the Blue Jays in the game long enough to scratch out three runs and win the game. Boston's 22 year old Felix Doubront overcame some early defensive lapses and earned his first major league win in his first big league start.

Texas had a good day for their young talent as Justin Smoak had a big day going two for five with the two hits being a homer and a double. He drove in four runs and scored two. He's started slowly, but he's going to be really good. Meanwhile, in the bullpen, young Darren O'Day pitched a perfect eigth inning and lowered his ERA as a reliever to 1.92 including a WHIP of 0.92.

In a battle of pitching phenoms, Baltimore's Brian Matusz pitched brilliantly for six innings but was matched pitch for pitch by San Diego's Wade LeBlanc. It became a battle of the bullpens and San Diego will win those every time while the Orioles will lose that every time. It went as predicted.

And last but not least, Stephen Strasburg put on another show. This time against the White Sox and not the lowly Pirates, Strasburg gave up a run on two hits in the first inning, but was brilliant the rest of the way. He pitched seven full innings while striking out ten batters and issued no walks. His WHIP after his first three big league starts? How about 0.78. Unfortunately, he got a no-decision as his team couldn't muster more than a run. His buddy and fellow first round pick, Drew Storen, pitched admirably for two innings but got the hard luck loss.

Everywhere you looked around baseball, young players were doing exciting things. It sure is a fun time to be a Fan, no?