MLB Game Picks - Friday: September 5, 2014

Following two 8-7 days, the tally for last night was 4-4. How uninspiring. When I looked at my picks this morning, my first thought was: "Why in the world would I have picked the Texas Rangers!?" Yes, exactly. Sometimes in life, we just make choices that don't make sense.

Friday's picks:

• The Cubs over the Pirates: The Cubs are my new obsession. I love how they have been pitching and how they have been fearless in bringing up young players. And today, I like Tsuyoshi Wada over Vance Worley.
• The White Sox over the Indians: T.J. House pitched really well in his last start which gives me pause for this pick. Also, the Indians are tough to beat at home. However, Chris Sale is the great equalizer and one of the best pitchers in the game.
• The Yankees over the Royals: The Yankees have handled James Shields pretty well over the years although he has an occasionally great game against them. If Michael Pineda is on, it won't matter what Shields does.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: Has Stephen Strasburg finally turned a corner? Is he now a reliable pick? We'll see. Jerome Williams will try to continue his hot pitching for the Phillies.
• The Tigers over the Giants: This is a tough one. The Giants will get to put the Panda at DH and get an extra bat. And Jake Peavy has pitched well for the Giants. My feeling is that Peavy will suffer a bit coming back to an AL park and having to pitch to nine hitters. Rick Porcello with the win.
• The Marlins over the Braves: Hasn't this Jarred Cosart - Aaron Harang match-up already happened like seven times this year? No, just once. And Cosart got the better of the day. I like him again at home this time.
• The Orioles over the Rays: I've said it before: Buck Showalter is the only manager that schools Joe Maddon on a regular basis. Wei-Yin Chen has been reliable and Alex Cobb has seemed more vulnerable lately. The O's seem unstoppable.
• The Mets over the Reds: It is so hard to predict the games that Bartolo Colon will be great. There is the expectation that he will be great for one game out of four. But which one? Great America Ballpark doesn't seem like the obvious choice. We'll see. Alfredo Simon will try to keep his bounce-back going. I feel a Curtis Granderson homer here.
• The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: The loss last night for the Red Sox had to have been devastating. But ballplayers are good at taking things day to day. So this all depends on Drew Hutchison and how well he pitches. Allen Webster will go for the Red Sox who should get Captain Jammypants Dustin Pedroia back tonight.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: I would really like to pick the Fabulous Scott Baker to continue his comeback in style. I learned my lesson last night picking the Rangers. Besides, I'm not picking against Hisashi Iwakuma, even if it is at Texas.
• The Brewers over the Cardinals: John Lackey is due for one of his dominant starts. And the Brewers have been terrible. My only reason for not doing the sane thing by picking the Cardinals is that Mike Fiers is pitching for the Brewers. He's my guy.
• The Rockies over the Padres: How do you pick this one? Tyler Matzek and Eric Stults are a combined 10-24. Fun. I'll go for the Rockies at home in what could be a long, long game.
• The Athletics over the Astros: I'm still disappointed that Jeff Samardzija did not go to the Red Sox. I was looking forward to the pronunciation of, "Sahmahdzah," Anyway, he will beat poor Brett Oberholtzer.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: Vidal Nuno has been surprisingly effective for the D-backs after throwing nothing but meatballs for the Yankees. He has a 3.23 ERA over his last ten starts. He hasn't won any of those starts though. Dan Haren has had a tough season.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Angels over the Twins: There are two pitchers you can't go wrong picking against. Garza is one and the other is Ricky Nolasco. To top that thought off, Matt Shoemaker is pitching. Ah yes. This can't go wrong........can it?

Yesterday: 4-4, September: 28-23, Games of the Day: 87-60 (+2), Season: 1158-957

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: August 23, 2014

I knew I was in trouble yesterday after the first couple of games and as the night progressed, it was just one of those horror shows that happen from time to time. I'm sure the Tigers understand what I'm talking about. Ahem.

And the Nationals' winning streak is over. Ten games. I should have learned my lesson from the rest of the season. Ten games is the longest a win streak or losing streak will go. To think the streak would go longer was pushing the envelope (cliche alert!) and I pushed it and got sticky envelop glue all over me.

Oh well, we'll call yesterday a market correction and hope for a better day today. Saturday's picks:

• The Yankees over the White Sox: Once upon a time, picking Hiroki Kuroda at home during a day game was a lock. But Kuroda is never a lock these days. The question then becomes whether the Yankees can score more than four runs against Scott Carroll. Stranger things have happened.
• The Tigers over the Twins: Even though the Twins totally blew out the Tigers yesterday, both teams emptied their bullpens, which is not good because they play two games today. And both starting pitchers in this one don't look good to go deep in the game. Yohan Pino has been awful and Buck Farmer at least has a chance to pitch well.
• The Mariners over the Red Sox: I was stunned that Koji Uehara gave up five runs yesterday. But watching the replays, there was only one hard-hit ball. The rest were lucky bloops. But that is the way the Red Sox season is going. I never picked Chris Young on the road until he started making me look stupid for not doing so. Brandon Workman goes for the Red Sox.
• The Orioles over the Cubs: The Cubs pulled off a major surprise yesterday by beating the O's. Some of it is not surprising at the O's depend quite a bit on the DH for offense and Machado out is hurting them. Still, Bud Norris has been really good and should counteract the good, young Kyle Hendricks.
• The Nationals over the Giants: The winning streak is over, so I can relax and pick the team I think will win. Clue: It's not the one starting Tim Lincecum. Jordan Zimmermann is still my guy. Seems like the Nats have been home for a month.
• The Indians over the Astros: The Astros are playing well and I really like Collin McHugh. He has pitched four games in a row giving up only a run and he has a wonderful strikeout pace going. My sticking point on picking them is that Danny Salazar is a totally different pitcher at home and tough to beat there.
• The Cardinals over the Phillies: I have given up trying to figure out what the Cardinals will do. What a roller coaster ride they have been this season. I have slightly more confidence in Shelby Miller than in David Buchanan.
• The Braves over the Reds: Here we go again with win/loss streak implications. The Braves are on a winning one and the Reds on a long losing one. Ervin Santana has been very good but I have a sneaking feeling that Mike Leake will have a good day. Ugh.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: Does the casual fan know that Wily Peralta has won fifteen games? I know about it and still find it amazing. Why not sixteen today? Heck, he is at home. Edinson Volquez will try to prevent it.
• The Rangers over the Royals: I find it amazing that Jeremy Guthrie has made $31 million in his career. He is the journey in journeyman. And he hasn't pitched well in Arlington during his career. Nick Tepesch, on the other hand, has strung together four good outings in a row.
• The Tigers over the Twins: Trevor May has allowed 26 base runners in his nine innings of work covering three games this season. He has a four to thirteen strikeout to walk ratio. Of course, today, he will pitch brilliantly. Justin Verlander is just as much of a concern with his health.
• The Marlins over the Rockies: Picking a winner at Coors is like buying scratch tickets. Tom Koehler and Jordan Lyles are pitching. I have no idea which one will succeed more.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Vidal Nuno hasn't pitched badly for the D-backs. He just hasn't won games. His being a lefty takes guys like Seth Smith out of the lineup. I have no idea how Andrew Cashner will pitch coming back from the DL.
• The Athletics over the Angels: Until the Angels can beat the A's in Oakland, I will have my doubts about their ability to win the division. Jon Lester seems like a better pick than C.J. Wilson.
• The Dodgers over the Mets: Jacob deGrom is off the disabled list and I like him a lot. But I don't know how he will do. Zack Greinke has scuffled and has health concerns himself. But all things being equal, Greinke is more dependable.

And the Game of the Day

• The Rays over the Blue Jays: The battle of the Ay's continues and I can see Jeremy Hellickson being better than Mark Buehrle in this one.

Yesterday: 5-10, August: 169-127, Games of the Day: 79-55 (+6), Season: 1063-876

MLB Game Picks - Friday: May 30, 2014

Have you ever heard a grim laugh? You know the kind where things get so bad you just have to laugh because there is nothing else you can do? When I went to see the scores last night, I immediately searched out the Dodgers game. And sure enough, they lost. They were the Game of the Day pick. And for the sixth straight day, it was incorrect. It's comical. It's a joke.

To make matters worse, it was another bad day in total. The Blue Jays did not win because of an error, so that team's streak is over. Ubaldo Jimenez had never lost to the Astros. He lost. Jaime Garcia pitched a very good game as I predicted. But Carlos Martinez came in and blew it. I just want this month to get over!

Friday's picks:

• The Indians over the Rockies: The Rockies get an extra bat in the lineup and Juan Nicasio is a pretty good pitcher. And the Indians are missing Swisher and Santana. So why pick the Indians then? Corey Kluber.
• The Yankees over the Twins: The Yankees spent eleven days on the road, so some home cooking is going to feel good. I don't like picking Vidal Nuno but I think the Yankees will hit Ricky Nolasco.
• The Phillies over the Mets: I hate picking A.J. Burnett because he is so unpredictable. But I can't count on Rafael Montero even though the youngster came up big in his last start.
• The Rangers over the Nationals: Picking Stephen Strasburg never works out for me. So maybe picking against him will help him. I don't know anything at this point. The Nationals are not playing well. With that talent, they should be flying. Colby Lewis with the win.
• The Blue Jays over the Royals: Can someone tell me how at the age of 31, J.A. Happ has gained a MPH on his fastball from a year ago and two and a half MPH from three years ago? But it's happened if you care to look it up. Jason Vargas faces a lineup on fire.
• The Marlins over the Braves: The Marlins are back at home where good things seem to happen for them. Tom Koehler has been a huge surprise this year. Julio Teheran has been the Braves' best pitcher, but the team is playing awful right now and just had their butts handed to them in Boston.
• The Rays over the Red Sox: The Red Sox are flying high after weeks of mediocrity. Xander Bogaerts is playing like he doesn't want Stephen Drew to take his spot. I still hate that move. But anyway, David Price will have a good night and Brandon Workman will not.
• The Astros over the Orioles: Can you pick against the Astros right now? I don't think so. Yeah, Brett Oberholtzer is 1-6, but he has some talent. And Miguel Gonzalez better be careful to George Springer.
• The White Sox over the Padres: The White Sox are another team playing well right now. The Padres will be a long, long way from home. John Danks has actually won a few games, which is surprising to me. Ian Kennedy is someone I used to know...
• The Cardinals over the Giants: What a pitching match up! Madison Bumgarner versus Adam Wainwright! Gosh, I would pay double to be there to see that. I am giving Wainwright the nod at home. He just better finish what he starts because that bullpen has been shaky as all get out.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: I just don't like to pick Bronson Arroyo pitching in Arizona. His mistakes will fly all over the place there in the hot air. Mike Leake has a better chance of winning, I think.
• The Angels over the Athletics: The Angels need to make the most of this series to have any chance in the AL West. They have the right pitcher on the mound in Garrett Richards but will have to battle Drew Pomeranz who has been pitching well. Oakland is a tough place to play.
• The Mariners over the Tigers: Remember when Justin Verlander was a lock? Not anymore. He should be better against the weak-hitting Mariners, but he faces Hisashi Iwakuma who is really tough at home.
• The Pirates over the Dodgers: Here is my reasoning here. First, Francisco Liriano has not won a game this year. He is due and having a big park like Dodgers Stadium should help. Secondly, I cannot remember the last time a pitcher who has thrown a no-hitter had a very good game his next time out. Can you? Josh Beckett is the next one.

And the Game of the Day (oh brother):

• The Brewers over the Cubs: The Cubs' offense has shut down again and it doesn't matter how well Travis Wood pitches. Marco Estrada will benefit and the Brewers win at home.

Yesterday: 4-6, May: 207-189, Games of the Day: 25-30, Season: 440-361

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: April 26, 2014

I needed a good day yesterday after a horrible Thursday and I got it. There were only four incorrect picks. The Yankees were bombed out at home. The Orioles could do nothing with a very impressive Yordano Ventura. The White Sox got a walk-off grand slam from Abreu to ruin that pick. And Josh Collmenter pitched a lot better than I thought he would as the Diamondbacks won the team's third straight.

Those were the only four bad picks. But I will take eleven correct ones every day. Here are Saturday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Angels: Hector Santiago is not C.J. Wilson and the Yankees should get some base runners at least. The only question is about how good Vidal Nuno can be. He was good his first start, but we'll see.
• The Nationals over the Padres: This is a tough one. I love Andrew Cashner, but his ERA is double on the road as it is at home. Tanner Roark has been good his last two starts. I am going with the home team.
• The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Clay Buchholz has been horrible. If he fixes himself today, this pick is in deep doodoo. Then again, Brandon Morrow hasn't been reliable himself. This looks like a pick that could hurt.
• The Tigers over the Twins: Phil Hughes pitched well his last time out. But this is the Tigers and they bite. Then again, Anibal Sanchez has not been great so far this season either.
• The Indians over the Giants: The Giants aren't hitting much and need good pitching to win. Tim Lincecum cannot be trusted in that department. Zach McAllister, on the other hand, is a bright talent.
• The Pirates over the Cardinals: Ugh, this is a tough one. Neither team is hitting. Francisco Liriano has not been nearly as good as last year. But Tyler Lyons is not a good pick either. Tough one...again...
• The Orioles over the Royals: I feel the Orioles are going to destroy Jeremy Guthrie today. It's a gut thing. Wei-Yin Chen has to be good for the Orioles though.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: I hate picking against Travis Wood. I have a lot of respect for him to go out there and get no support each time. He might even be the best hitter on his team. Marco Estrada will be good enough to win at home.
• The Braves over the Reds: David Hale is the weakest link of the Braves' rotation. But he still might be good enough to be better than Mike Leake. Leake is not a big strikeout guy, which helps the Braves.
• The Mets over the Marlins: When it comes to pitchers, there is slow, then Kevin Slowey and then the slowest. The Mets get another good performance from Jenrry Mejia and win.
• The Athletics over the Astros: I would rate Dan Straily and Dallas Keuchel a wash. That said, the A's are the better team and thus the pick.
• The White Sox over the Bay Rays: Why the heck not. The White Sox are very exciting right now. John Danks has been good so far. And Cesar Ramos pitching for the Rays seals the deal for me.
• The Phillies over the Diamondbacks: I am not sure about Cliff Lee in the desert air, but I am sure that I don't ever like picking Bronson Arroyo to win.
• The Rockies over the Dodgers: I like Juan Nicasio on the road and at home. But maybe I overrate him. And maybe I underrate Paul Maholm because I would almost never pick him to win a game.

And the Game of the Day

• The Mariners over the Rangers. Felix Hernandez? Check. At home? Check. The Colby Lewis story is nice. But to have faith in a nice story? No, not here.

Yesterday: 11-4, Games of the Day: 11-11, Season: 197-148

Yankees' starting pitching depth

I bounced off of a Jeff Sullivan post over at Fangraphs.com to write about the surprisingly good starting pitching depth the Yankees had last year from swing starters. If one or two of those swing men are needed for the rotation full time, that depth is diminished greatly. See the post at It's About the Money.

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: May 30, 2013

The picks just cannot seem to get out of their own way lately. There were some really good picks like the Cubs (and Feldman) over the White Sox, the Indians (and Masterson) over the Reds and the Twins over the Brewers. But for every good pick, there was a bad one. And with the postponement in Texas, the picks ended up at .500. Blah.

I, for one, will be glad when this month is over.

And Tim Lincecum. What are the Giants going to do about Tim Lincecum?

Today features a full schedule of fifteen games. That does not happen often on a Thursday. And four of them are day games. That is always fun. Here are the picks:

• The Diamondbacks over the Rangers: The same pitchers are scheduled today as yesterday. I have flip-flopped on my thinking and now think that Brandon McCarthy will be better than Justin Grimm.
• The White Sox over the Cubs: This series will continue to go back and forth as both teams are about equal in skills. Today the pick should be Jake Peavy over Travis Wood who is not having that bad a year for himself.
• The Mariners over the Padres: This is a really tough one. Felix Hernandez was just ordinary his last start but is capable of great things. Andrew Cashner was terrific in his last outing.
• The Giants over the Athletics: I might as well keep trying to be wrong in this series. The A's just keep winning. Barry Zito is going for the Giants today and that will either continue the trend badly or he will be just good enough for the Giants to steal one. The Giants have a chance against A.J. Griffin.
• The Red Sox over the Phillies: Will David Ortiz sit this one out too? What will Franklin Morales give the Red Sox? Can the Red Sox hit Jonathan Pettibone without Ortiz? The Phillies have had their way thus far in this series.
• The Reds over the Indians: This day is starting to frighten me as I keep picking the visiting team to win. So far, I only have one home team in the win column. Ugh. But I still think Homer Bailey is more reliable than Scott Kazmir. And that is how the pick has to go.
• The Pirates over the Tigers: I have gone with the Tigers every day and the Pirates have won two of them. And I never quite believe in Jeff Locke despite his 5-1 record, great WHIP and ERA. So I will switch it up and go that way and hope that Doug Fister does not have one of his Greg Maddux days.
• The Yankees over the Mets: The Yankees have lost four in a row. And that streak depends on a good outing from Vidal Nuno to get them out if it. The bullpen because of Phelps' short outing is already gassed. Yikes! Fortunately, they get Dillon Gee who is quite capable of giving them five or six runs.
• The Nationals over the Orioles: This series is crazy. Between the two team, they hit eight homers yesterday. Chris Davis has been out of his mind. So who will restore order today? Will it be Dan Haren or Freddy Garcia? Not that great a choice, right? Perhaps there will be eight more homers.
• The Marlins over the Rays: If ever there was a chance for the Marlins to win, it is today. The Rays are giving Alex Colome, a 24 year old, non-rated prospect with a crooked cap like Rodney, his Major League debut. The Marlins go with their best pitcher, Ricky Nolasco. But that does not mean the Marlins will win. Just that they have a chance.
• The Braves over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have had their way thus far. But Mike Minor should be better than who the Jays have faced so far. R.A. Dickey, on the other hand, could have his knuckler dancing and strike out twelve Braves. Thus is the life of a game picker.
• The Brewers over the Twins: P.J. Walters surprised the heck out of me last time with a good game. Can he do it again? Sure. But I prefer Kyle Lohse in this one, especially in a big ballpark.
• The Cardinals over the Royals: And yet another Major League debut as Michael Wacha, one of the big first round picks in the Albert Pujols free agent loss, and all of 21, gets his chance. How can you pick against him the way Cardinal prospects have been this season? Jeremy Guthrie goes for the helpless Royals.
• The Angels over the Dodgers: Does it not seem like Ted Lilly has been in the majors for about thirty years? The not in this one, though not a strong nod, goes to Jason Vargas.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Rockies over the Astros: The Astros won yesterday. Go figure. The odds are against them winning two in a row. Juan Nicasio goes against Lucas Harrell. Harrell in Coors Field is a scary proposition since his is a finesse guy.

Yesterday: 7-7

Week: 31-27

Month: 220-172

Season: 449-334

Games of the Day: 36-21