MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: April 14, 2015

Yesterday wasn't a great picking day, but at least it was in the plus column. I had a comment that my count was off the other day and I had an extra incorrect pick. That's all I needed. Heh. So I adjusted my final tally.

Tuesday's picks:

• The Nationals over the Red Sox: Stephen Strasburg was not as great as I thought he would be all last year and lost his first outing this year. But I am still a big believer in the guy. Justin Masterson goes for the Red Sox.
• The Tiger over the Pirates: Shane Greene was terrific his first time out and I have an emotional attachment to him. A.J. Burnett brings out emotions in me too, but they are mostly negative.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: CC Sabathia needs to show he can pitch. I think he'll do that today. The one problem is that the Yankees extended both of their power relievers yesterday. Miguel Gonzalez goes for the Orioles.
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: The Rays took the opening game in the opening Battle of the Ays for 2015. Tonight will be different. Daniel Norris is a rising star. Matt Andriese is an unknown quantity.
• The Indians over the White Sox: Jose Quintana will be a hard luck loser again as he faces a very hot Carlos Carrasco. It should be a low scoring game.
• The Marlins over the Braves: There are going to be some panic reactions in Miami if the Marlins don't start winning soon. Tom Koehler will try to get them tilted in the right direction and Trevor Cahill will try to prevent it.
• The Mets over the Phillies: The legend of Matt Harvey will continue to bloom and David Buchanan can only hope to limit the damage and keep up.
• The Angels over the Rangers: I have no idea what to expect from Drew Rucinski who is making his first MLB start. But he has a pretty big arm, so we'll see. Nick Martinez goes for the Rangers.
• The Athletics over the Astros: Brad Peacock has never been able to spread his tail feathers in the Majors. That's what sinks me for this pick. But Kendall Graveman doesn't give me good vibes either.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: I never know what to expect from Odrisamer Despaigne as he is either stellar or gets bombed. But I like him over Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson's fly ball tendency toward the fly ball won't be as bad in San Diego though.
• The Dodgers over the Mariners: I call David Huff, "David Hassle Huff." In other words, he reminds me of the world's worst actor. At the same time, he is capable of good starts now and then. Hisashi Iwakuma goes for the Mariners.
• The Giants over the Rockies: The Rockies are on fire. I think Tim Hudson will cool them off though. Besides, Christian Bergman doesn't fill me with confidence.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Cubs over the Reds: The Cubs got a bad outing from Lester and still won the game yesterday. Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta should be better and Anthony DeSclafani at least gives us Italians something to cheer about.

Yesterday: 8-6, Season: 49-56, Picks of the Day: 3-5

Yankees' starting pitching depth

I bounced off of a Jeff Sullivan post over at Fangraphs.com to write about the surprisingly good starting pitching depth the Yankees had last year from swing starters. If one or two of those swing men are needed for the rotation full time, that depth is diminished greatly. See the post at It's About the Money.

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: September 29, 2013

The penultimate day of the 2013 MLB regular season ended the last full week of picking with a thud. After a great week of picking, the bottom fell out with only five correct picks. But, you know what? I will take that since my Game of the Day and Andy Pettitte won his final regular season start of his long and wonderful career. Watching that unfold in Houston was the most amazing experience. And those who say that it was Houston, after all, and the horrible Astros, has no respect for the game. They are still a big league team with big league hitters and you still have to get them out. It was the perfect last hurrah for a great pitcher.

The regular season ends today. Or will it? The American League Wild Card is nuts. If the Indians win, they are in. If they lose and both the Rays and Rangers win, then we have a three-way tie and there will be tie-breaker games before the play-in game. If the Rays and Rangers both win or both lose, and the Indians win, then there will be a tie-breaker game between the Rays and Rangers. Crazy!

Sunday's picks:

• The Rays over the Blue Jays: The last battle of the Ays for the season and it could not be a bigger game. The Rays have to win unless the Rangers also lose. But they will go all out to win. Matt Moore is their big stud alongside David Price. He will take his 16-4 record and try to get the W for the Rays. Todd Redmond will try to deny the Rays. Should be exciting!
• The Tigers over the Marlins: Of all the division winners, the Tigers sure can look awful at times. And they have finished the season so nonchalantly that anything can happen in this game. Justin Verlander is starting. I have no idea why or how long he will go. Henderson Alvarez goes for the Fish.
• The Mets over the Brewers: Jonathon Niese has had a really good finish to his season. A win today would set him up nicely with good feelings for next year. Terry Collins got a contract extension, which I guess is a good thing. Wily Peralta goes for the Brewers. Both teams go home empty-handed.
• The Pirates over the Reds: I picked the Reds in the first two games and was wrong as the Pirates took care of business in Cincinnati. This game is meaningless and both teams know it. As such, they are pitching two pitchers who will probably not factor in the post-season. Brandon Cumpton is better than Greg Reynolds, so that is the direction I am heading.
• The Orioles over the Red Sox: A meaningless game for both teams, but tell that to Buck Showalter. He likes to beat the good teams. Chris Tillman has not pitched well to end his season. John Lackey never gets run support. I am surprised he is starting.
• The Braves over the Phillies: Once again, I am surprised in this meaningless game that Julio Teheran is starting. Perhaps he does not factor in the team's plans for the NLDS. Anyway, the Braves win by beating Zach Minor.
• The Indians over the Twins: Can the Indians finish a historic run to end their season? I believe they will. A lot will depend on how sharp Ubaldo Jimenez is. Scott Diamond is probably the best of the Twins' crap pitchers. A win and the Indians are in. Incredible.
• The White Sox over the Royals: Jose Quintana is the White Sox one good luck charm. They win a lot when he pitches. Bruce Chen is not nearly as good on the road as he is at home. The season ends on a high note for the lowly White Sox. But they should still clean house after it's over. Word is that they are not. Dumb.
• The Yankees over the Astros: David Huff, or Hassle-Huff for those of you who have been following along, gets the start for the Yankees as Kuroda is done as well. Erik Bedard starts for the Astros and he has had a miserable season. Just miserable.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: Jake Westbrook is getting a "thank you for past services" start for the Cardinals. And it is pretty telling how good the Cards are that Westbrook is the odd man out in the post season but could be a fourth starter on many teams. Jeff Samardzija never really put it together this season like I thought he would.
• The Rangers over the Angels: This game is no lock. For one thing, Yu Darvish is never a lock. He is a great pitcher, but wins are never guaranteed. I know because I have been picking him all year. Plus, Jason Vargas has been brilliant of late. Rangers have to win.
• The Padres over the Giants: I have no idea who is going to win this game. Tyson Ross has been pretty good of late and the Giants have nothing to play for. Guillermo Moscoso is coming out of the bullpen to pitch for the Giants. Who knows.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Hyun-jin Ryu tries to win his last tune-up before the playoffs. Jeff Francis, the definition of the "crafty lefty" tries to better him.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: Eric Wedge is managing his last game and going out without leaving any words on the table. Good for him. The M's stand for Mess. Besides, I have to go with Sonny Gray. He's my guy. Erasmo Ramirez has been good for the Mariners though.

The Game of the Day:

• The Nationals over the Diamondbacks: I want this. I want Davey Johnson to go out with a win. He has a good chance with Tanner Roark on the mound. The kid has been awesome. Wade Miley will try to spoil the party.

Yesterday: 5-10  Ugh

Last week: 57-40

Month: 222-168

Season: 1364-1063

Games of the Day: 105-70

Queasy about Cleveland's pitching

The Cleveland Indians made a nice early run in 2011. After flying out of the gate with an 18-8 record in April, the team sat on a 32-20 record by the end of May. The team was in first place until June 10 and stayed among the division leaders and even grabbed it by a game as late as July 22. Their big play at the trade deadline for Ubaldo Jimenez did not pan out as they hoped and the team played sub-.500 baseball from June through the end of the season. The Tigers zoomed past them and never looked back. Given Ubaldo's track record, you could perhaps think that his 2011 season was a blip. But a poor spring and rumors of his attitude and diminished radar gun readings make you wonder. And he isn't the only pitcher suspect this spring. Of course, spring baseball doesn't count and we can't read too much into it. Plus, the team plays its spring games in Arizona where the balls fly without much hindrance. How much concern should there be?

The Indians' best pitcher this spring has been newcomer, Derek Lowe. Lowe is trying himself to overcome one of his worst seasons ever last season with the Braves. So his spring success is encouraging. But every other projected starter has struggled this spring. Well, check that. Jeanmar Gomez has had a terrific spring. But is he really their fifth starter? Perhaps. Gomez has only started once this spring in his four appearances while guys like Josh Tomlin, Kevin Slowey, Jimenez and David Huff have started four or five games each. Lowe has had success in his career and Jimenez is still considered a great arm. But do the rest of those rotation options give us any kind of optimism. Not really.

After looking at the Baseball Prospectus depth chart for the team, the projections are not appetizing. Justin Masterson should be better than the 3.99 ERA BP projects for him and better than the 1.7 WARP that sight predicts. Take the upside there. But BP's projection for Ubaldo Jimenez comes in with an ERA of 3.47 and a WARP of 2.8. Judging on the last year, you'd have to take those numbers with a grain of salt. The Indians would be thrilled with that Ubaldo. Don't count on them.

Derek Lowe is projected poorly, most likely based on last season and moving from the National League to the American League. His projection of a 4.62 ERA and a measly 0.2 WARP are very pessimistic. Lowe should have a decent season left in him and beat those numbers.

Josh Tomlin is projected for a 4.17 ERA with a WARP of 1.1. The former seems optimistic and the latter perhaps a bit pessimistic. His sinker is a good one but it all depends on his balls in play. The expectation here is an ERA closer to the 4.50 mark. He'll have his fair share of good outings though. 

BP's projections for Jeanmar Gomez and David Huff are gruesome to look at. Both are projected with negative WARPs. It's hard to argue with either projection. BP rates Kevin Slowey higher, but that's hard to justify after seeing what happened to him last season.

What we are seeing here is an experiment. The Indians are going almost entirely with extreme ground ball pitchers. Such pitchers can get "hot" depending on where their ground balls are hit. But this rotation's success will likely revolve around the type of season Ubaldo Jimenez has. If the 2010 version shows up, then some of the other weaker links are less exposed. But if the 2011 version is what they get, then this rotation blows up.

Baseball Prospectus predicts the Indians will win 80 games just like last season. But this rotation leaves much of a feeling of queasiness. If Lowe bounces back and Masterson continues to grow and Jimenez can get his stuff together, this team could win 85 games pretty easily. But if two of the three of those scenarios do not develop, this team could struggle to win 75 games in 2012.