Game Picks - Saturday: July 25, 2009

This picker expressed yesterday that there were dangerous games everywhere you looked last night and wasn't wrong. Three aces pitched and their teams did not win: Santana, Halladay and Greinke. The Dodgers lost at home and the Indians pounded out nine runs and didn't give up even that many hits to the Mariners. So all in all, an 8-7 mark for the day feels pretty fortunate. It was enough to stay on top for the week at BallHype.com.

The Saturday schedule doesn't look any easier. Lots of funny match ups and possible pitfalls. But there is no sense in being timid. The Fan will play to win rather than playing not to lose so here we go:

• The Reds over the Cubs: If Cueto has a good game, he's a much better pitcher than young Mr. Hart. But that's a big "If."
• The Yankees over the A's: This should be the one safe bet? Pettitte versus the Holliday sans A's?
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: In another battle of the "Ays," the Bay Rays have to keep winning to stay with the Red Sox and the Yankees. Price has been wild, but other than Hill and Scuturo, the Blue Jays aren't very patient.
• The Cardinals over the Phillies: A little worried about Lohse pitching as he's had a difficult season, but the Cardinals are still blooming with Holliday.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: Floyd has been good, but Jackson is the better pitcher.
• The Mariners over the Indians: Bedard is supposed to be much better than Sowers.
• The Twins over the Angels: Remind the Fan why he keeps picking the Twins?
• The Braves over the Brewers: The Braves are on fire and have an ever improving Hanson on the mound.
• The Padres over the Nationals: The Padres play the only team in the NL worse than they are.
• The Astros over the Mets: The Mets scored four runs yesterday. That was an event in and of itself.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Lester is much better than Guthrie.
• The Rangers over the Royals: This is a tough one. Hochever has been much better lately and Holland has not been. But man, the Royals just can't hit.
• The Rockies over the Giants: No-hit man, Sanchez, has pitched only one good game all year. De La Rosa has pitched a lot of good games for the Rockies.
• The Pirates over the Diamondbacks: The Fan can't seem to go wrong with Ohlendorf.
• The Marlins over the Dodgers: Vanden Hurk was brilliant last time. He'll need to be again. Kuroda is too iffy for this picker.

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 55-27
Month: 152-105

The Tigers Take Control

The Tigers had played their last 21 games in total mediocrity. Posting an 8-13 record during that span, they let the Chicago White Sox back in the American League Central race while they floundered around. Inge has a pinge in his knee. It's more like an almost total tear, though, somehow, he's still playing. The entire offense has sputtered. In thirteen of their last twenty games, the Tigers have scored three runs or less. Six of those games featured only one run on offense. With the White Sox coming in for four games in three days, this really could have gotten ugly. But they wrested control of the situation by sweeping a double-header from those White Sox.

And it wasn't offense that got the job done either, so that is a concern. The Tigers only scored six runs in the entire double-header. But the White Sox only scored three. Verlander came up big in the first game, throwing 127 pitches to go the distance in a 2-0 shutout. Meanwhile, the White Sox made three errors and left nine men on base.

In the second game, young Eddie Bonine kept the Tigers in the game for six innings (he gave up three runs) and the bullpen was great as the Tigers went on to win 4-3. The Tigers induced two Chicago double-plays and young catcher, Dusty Ryan, threw out two potential base stealers.

The Tigers' offense is still a big concern, but they made a semi-statement on Thursday and went two games ahead of the White Sox.

Spending the Hollidays in St. Louis

Manny helped the Dodgers last year. Teixeira helped the Angels. And now Holliday is going to help the Cardinals. We all knew it was coming. Speculation concerning Holliday and Halladay have been swirling for weeks. Certainly his teammates weren't surprised. The Cardinals, who though imperfect, were already on track to win the division. But recent surges by the Astros and more life in the Cubs (and Milwaukee isn't out of it) seemed to give more impetus to getting a bat to hit behind and protect Albert Pujols. Holliday should fill that spot perfectly.

And the Cardinals are getting Holliday at just the right time. Holliday really struggled early in the year. It seems that he spent some time in the off season working with Mark McGwire, who got Holliday to do away with his leg kick with his front leg as he was driving into the ball. McGwire seems like a great guy and players are drawn to him, but once Holliday went back to the leg kick, his whole season went into a leg kick.

The first three months of the season, Holliday's Slugging Percentage showed: .360, .456 and .440. His Slugging Percentage has skyrocketed in July to .574. And something else is impressive about Holliday. Most guys who get traded seem to take a couple to three days to get to their new team. Holliday hopped on a plane immediately and was in the Cardinals' lineup tonight. How did he do? He went four for five with a double, a run scored and an RBI. Not a bad start. He also stole a base.

The Cardinals' other new player, Julio Lugo, abandoned by the Red Sox and needing a new home to possibly ressurrect his career, went two for five with a homer, two runs scored and an RBI. The Cardinals seem to have enough pitching (Pineiro was great again tonight), but their offense was really struggling. Eight runs tonight against a pitcher who was 7-0, seems (sure, it's only one game) to show that they have fixed that problem.

Give the Cardinals credit. They made the right moves and rented Holliday for a few months to get them where they need to go. Oakland, on the other hand, though they are happy for their now ex-teammate, have to be bumming. And it showed in their game against the Yankees.

Against the Yankees, the A's looked flat and listless. They only managed three hits against Joba and allowed two runs to score on a throwing error. Johnny Damon drove in two runs with ground outs. And this was a team, who with Holliday, that overcame a ten run deficit earlier in the week against the Twins and just pummeled that team from Minnesota.

But that's the way it goes. When you're in last place, you're going to lose your spare parts, especially with Billy Beane who will always trade what he has for young prospects. It's the way of the world. The A's have to live through the rest of the year with a patchwork offense with hopes for the future. The Cardinals are delighted to have Holliday (and Lugo) and seem poised to be the best team in their division.

Tough Night for Some Aces

How many times would Johan Santana, Roy Halladay and Zack Greinke all start on the same night and combined come up with zero wins? Well, it happened Thursday night. Halladay and Greinke were brilliant. Santana was not.

Poor Greinke. He pitched seven innings and only gave up one run (a solo homer by Marlon Byrd). He gave up only three hits and walked three while striking out ten Rangers. But the surprising Scott Feldman combined with a miserable Royals' offense spelled "S-H-U-T-O-U-T" for the Rangers.

How bad is the Royals' offense? They are last or next to last in thirteen offensive categories and 11th and 12th (among 14 teams) in two other categories.

If Thursday night was Roy Halladay's swan song with the Blue Jays in front of their home crowd, he sure gave them something to remember him by. It was vintage Halladay as he went nine full innings, giving up only two runs on four hits. One of his runs was unearned as beleaguered catcher, Rod Barajas suffered his fifth passed ball of the season. Halladay's performance against one of the better offenses of the league was simply brilliant and he struck out ten batters.

Matt Garza matched Halladay with his own nine innings, striking out nine and only surrendering five hits. He didn't walk anyone. It was hard to tell if Garza was that good or if the Blue Jays' offense is sputtering that badly lately. It was probably a combination of the two. The bottom line is that Scott Downs lost his second game of the week in relief for the sad Blue Jays, who started the season so well.

As for Johan Santana, he just didn't have it Thursday. In six and a third innings, he gave up fifteen base runners (12 hits and three walks) and surrendered a two run homer to winning pitcher, Mike Hampton. Hampton is now batting .312 for the season (with a .345 OBP). Santana also gave up two doubles in the game and only struck out three batters. It was not vintage night for the great Johan.

Game Picks - Friday: July 24, 2009

For the first time ever, the Flagrant Fan is number one on BallHype.com's list of game pickers for the week. This picker doubts he will stay there because, first, every day's list of games is fraught with contradictions such as in a game where two unknown youngsters like Mock and Latos pitch, how to you sanely pick such a game? Second, BallHype.com stupidly rewards people who only pick underdogs all the time and gives you more points for having a losing record than having a winning record. But this Fan refuses to play that game. It's about picking winners, right? I suppose BallHype.com and gambling would be two exceptions to that rule where underdogs garner more points. But whatever. The Fan will shut up now and just pick the games:

• The White Sox over the Tigers: The Fan has this sick feeling that the geezers are going to take this division and that the Tigers are in the process of rolling over. They play a double header today and it could be a White Sox sweep. This is one case where the Fan hopes his picks are wrong.
• The Reds over the Cubs: In games where everyone thinks the Cubs are going to win, they usually don't.
• The Cardinals over the Phillies: Pineiro has been impressive lately. Happ hasn't lost yet and the law of averages say that can't continue.
• The Padres over the Nationals: Don't have any idea who Mock and Latos are, but apparently, they are are pitching today. Flip a coin.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: Contradicting the first pick only because Colon is pitching for the White Sox. How does such a team of old guys stay competitive?
• The Yankees over Oakland: This is a big game for Chamberlain to see if he can put together two impressive starts in a row.
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Halladay's Toronto swan song?
• The Orioles over the Red Sox: Whuh? Well, Bergesen has been the Orioles' best pitcher and Penny hasn't been very impressive lately.
• The Braves over the Brewers: Will take Vazquez over Parra any day of any week of any month.
• The Mets over the Astros: Santana will win if he gets at least two runs.
• The Rangers over the Royals: Feldman beats Greinke? Whuh? How can you pick the Royals to win at this point?
• The Giants over the Rockies: Big game with wildcard ramifications. Going with Cain.
• The Pirates over the Diamondbacks: Zack Duke, the All Star.
• The Twins over the Angels: Scarily, Liriano has been the Twins' best pitcher lately. Like him better than Lackey.
• The Dodgers over the Marlins: Tough game here with Josh Johnson against Clayton Kershaw. Both have been excellent. Going with the Dodgers at home.
• The Mariners over the Indians: Rowland-Smith pitching for the Mariners. Is he the first hyphenated-named pitcher ever?

Well, that's it. Not very confident in the above list, but that's the way the Fan sees it, and so it goes. Have a great weekend everyone.

Yesterday: 7-2
Week: 47-20
Month: 144-98

Game Picks - Thursday: July 23, 2009

This picker is going to ride this bus as long as it keeps on rolling. Only four wrong last night. Picked against the Dodgers for some reason. Oh yes, Arroyo. Ah well. Picked the Rays to beat the White Sox. For some reason, those geezers always find a way to win, especially against a bullpen. Picked the Twins who were destroyed by Oakland. And picked the Mets to win with Pelfrey. Should have gone with the Nationals. But eleven out of fifteen is great and with a light schedule tonight, the Fan can bask a while with his gaudy record for a couple of days at least.

Tonight's picks:

• The Indians over the Blue Jays: In a battle of young pitchers, Huff has been around longer than Rzepcynski. Isn't it odd that the Fan can spell Rzepcynski but can't ever spell Francoeur? or Wieter?


• The Mariners over the Tigers: The Mariners are starting Washburn while the Tigers are starting French. The Fan was never good at French.


• The Braves over the Giants: Like Kawakami at home over Zito.


• The White Sox over the Bay Rays: Buehrle has been great lately. Kazmir has not been.


• The Cardinals over the Nationals: Wainwright should beat a kid named, Balester.


• The Phillies over the Padres: Hamels in a cake walk.


• The Yankees over the Athletics: Sabathia isn't Perkins and the Yankees aren't the Twins.


• The Diamondbacks over the Pirates: Haran!


• The Twins over the Angels: Yeah, yeah, the Twins just lost 16-1. But that was yesterday.

Yesterday: 11-4
Week: 40-18
Month: 137-96

P.S. - The Fan is now 1179-1026 at BallHype.com this year and still has -0.7 points there overall. Is that stupid or what? What a lousy system.

The Intentional Walk

Wednesday, in Rob Neyer's Sweetspot, Mr. Neyer commented sagely on another blog post concerning the intentional walk. The other post in question (you can get the link from Mr. Neyer's post) postulated that a rule change that changes the nature of the game shouldn't be considered just because the fans hate the intentional walk. Mr. Neyer correctly questioned the logic and reasoning of the original piece.

Bud Selig has gone on record a number of times stating his concern for the fan who has to spend diminishing money to go to the ball park. In these times, the concern Selig is speaking about is a real issue and families all across America are prioritizing how their money is spent.

Say a middle class parent in St. Louis decides to make a trip to see the Cardinals a priority because the parent's children are huge Albert Pujols fans. So the budget is carefully consulted and the parent makes a reasonable attempt to limit the damage and tells the kids they can have a popcorn and share a large soda. The family settles into their seats and much to the kids' excitement, Pujols is coming up to the plate in the bottom of the first inning. There is a runner on second and even though this is the first inning, the catcher stands up and signals the pitcher for four intentional balls. The kids are disappointed (especially if it happens multiple times in a game) and the parent is saying, "I spent all that money for this?"

First, let the Fan say categorically that the intentional walks to Barry Bonds earlier in the decade and the walks being issued to Albert Pujols (34 so far this year) are acts of cowardice. Yes, the Fan can see it in the eighth or ninth inning when the game is on the line. But geez, two out of the five times the guy gets to the plate? That's just playing scared and it may be smart, but it's a cheap escape and it does nothing but hurt the game and the fans who watch it.

The pitchers and managers the Fan admires are those that take the ball and force Bonds or Pujols or whomever and take on the challenge. As good as Bonds and Pujols were and are, they will still get themselves out six out of every ten plate appearances.

Should MLB ban the intentional walk? How effective would it be since the manager, pitcher and catcher would just have some other type of sign and the pitcher would simply unintentionally intentionally walk the guy anyway? It isn't the rules that you can change, it's the culture. Stress during the GM meetings and the owner meetings that the fans are what matter most and depriving the fans of the spectacle of a Bonds or Pujols at bat is a detriment to the game. Have those at the top send those messages down to the managers on the bench and let them know that such doings (except where the game is on the line late in the game) are unacceptable and unseemly.

If you want a rule change that can be enforced, make it a rule that a relief pitcher has to face at least two batters and put an end to this LOOGY business and the LaRussa/Piniella roulette of three pitching changes in an inning. Now that IS certainly a drain on the game (although it does allow the revenue stream of more commercials during a game for the television people).

The Fan hates intentional walks. They are the coward's way of baseball. But the Fan doesn't see where a rule against them will change anything. Try to change the culture. Because until you do that, managers will still find a way to work around Pujols and others when their inner chicken wing starts itching.

Pondering the Red Sox Trades

Upon first hearing about the two trades the Red Sox made today, the first gut reaction was: "What the heck did they do that for?" But after reflecting a bit, the two trades don't look too bad in second thoughts. First of all, any trade that frees Julio Lugo from his Red Sox experience is a good thing for him and for the team. Secondly, while LaRoche isn't the best player in the world, he's had some pretty above average seasons until recently. Let's explore this a little bit further.

The first reaction to the LaRoche trade was negativity about moving Youkilis off of first base to third. The Fan has commented several times in the FanDome and on Josh Borenstein's blog that Youkilis is one of the best first basemen in baseball and it's stupid to move him. But the Fan isn't always right. A review of the statistics show that this year's batting splits between first and third are a statistical anomaly. Over his career, Youkilis has better offensive numbers when playing third than when playing first. Though his career at bats at first far outweigh what he's hit at third. Plus, according to the defensive stats, Youkilis is an even better third baseman than he is a first baseman. So, on those occasions when LaRoche plays first and Youkilis moves to third, the Fan has been incorrect and the Red Sox don't lose anything as LaRoche is pretty good around first too.

The second reaction was the opinion that LaRoche wasn't a very good hitter. He's certainly down this year with a showing of .247/.329/.441, but if his career is any indication, he's more like a .275/.350/.485 kind of guy, which is a heck of a lot better than Jeff Francoeur. He had his best year in 2006 for Bobby Cox and was traded the following year to Pittsburgh. Perhaps three years in a losing situation with a surrounding lineup that doesn't leave much protection has taken its toll. At least with the Red Sox, he'll be in an upbeat environment with solid major league hitters around him. Don't be surprised if he does well. The only sad part is seeing him split up from his brother.

Thank goodness for Julio Lugo's sake. Not since Renteria has a shortstop felt such hatred from Red Sox Nation and seemingly crumbled as a player because of it. In a recent interview, he was very up front and said he tried his best and it just didn't work out. At least now, he is free to rediscover his career and the Red Sox are free from the burden. And as much as you all know how much the Fan thinks of Tony LaRussa, he and his staff seem to find a way to rebuild castoffs and fix them somehow. The Cardinals had a real mess at shortstop with Khalil Greene out with emotional problems and Tyler Greene not showing much at the plate. Lugo at least will hit over there in St. Louis and perhaps will regain something of himself again.

It was clear that the Cardinals' executives had felt the end had come for Chris Duncan. Duncan showed huge holes in his swing and was struggling mightily at the plate. He seems pretty much the same as his brother who plays in the Yankee organization. Both are big guys that can get tied up and lack discipline at times. It's hard to see him having any impact with the Red Sox in the future. It appears that this was a case of both teams unloading parts that weren't working for them.

The bottom line for the Red Sox is that they added a potentially above league average bat, subtracted a negative and aren't hurt when Youkilis has to play the occasional third base. Since it appears that the AL East has three teams that are dead even personnel-wise, a slight positive and a good subtraction can't hurt and might even help.

Instant Replay

While we are on a roll concerning rule changes, the topic of Instant Replay has come up again because of the completely blown call in the Twins game earlier this week where Cuddyer was called out at the plate and replay showed how easily Cuddyer beat the tag. The run would have been the tying run and it was the last out of the game. The Twins might have won that game. Does baseball want that kind of notoriety?

One of the problems of Instant Replay is that it's not really "instant." It takes time for the umpires to go to their system and get the signal from the umpire in the sky (or wherever he is) for the proper outcome. Yeah, okay, that might draw out the game a little bit, but not any more than ten attempted pick off throws to first or three pitching changes in an inning.

In the long run, it's certainly worth it to get it right. Rob Neyer, lately one of our few mainstream voices of reason, correctly pointed out that the world hasn't caved in with the advent of the replay system already in place for homers.

Gardenshire, the manager of the victimized Twins said he wants a red flag like they have in football. Uh. No! Why not allow the manager of a team the right to question any call? Each game might have one or two disputed plays. Big deal! Review them! The technology is there. Use it.

There is no reason in this day and age that a call can't be questioned and put right when it is wrong. The one big problem is figuring out where all the runners should be if there were multiple runners on base. But that can be figured out. After all, there are four umps watching the bases at any given time. For those of you who say that human error is part of the game, you aren't living in reality. Human error is what brought the major automakers down. The Japanese showed the way using technology to limit errors.

The bottom line is that the players should determine the outcome of games, not the umpires. Doing anything possible to limit the latter from happening should be investigated, tested, perfected and put into place. Soon!

McCann Carrying the Braves

Remember earlier in the year when Brian McCann couldn't see anything? All through Spring Training and through the early part of the season, there was a daily story about McCann trying glasses or different contacts and so on. If you don't remember the story, here is a link. Well, McCann is seeing the ball well now and has been crushing it. Much of the Braves recent success can be attributed to Mr. McCann.

Of course, McCann isn't much of a defensive catcher. Well, the Fan needs to be careful here because judging catcher's defense isn't as easy as it is for other fielders. But his RTOTs have always been in the negative though his range factors (how the heck do you figure out the range for a catcher?) are higher than league average. The one measurable factor is that he doesn't throw out runners very well (27%).

But as long as he can hit like he does, the defense will be serviceable. McCann blasted a serious homer to dead center last night and now has ten for the year. His batting and On Base Percentage are almost identical to last year's .301/.373 and only his slugging is down a little. But still, with an .872 OPS and a career OPS+ of 123, McCann doesn't seem to get enough press for what he does at the plate.

While it doesn't look like the Braves have any hope of catching the flying Phillies, McCann continues to be one of the best-hitting catchers in the game and has kept the Braves competitive all season.

Game Picks - Wednesday: July 22, 2009

Wow! This picker had a really good night: only three wrong out of sixteen. The three wrong? Thought the Yankees would lose, the Red Sox and the Rockies would win. Strange. The Rangers are showing a lot of mettle to win two of three from the Red Sox to at least stay close. One pick that didn't feel that good to get correct was the Indians over Toronto as the Blue Jays loss was heartbreaking and ruined a great outing by Cecil.

Let's keep the ball rolling and see what Wednesday has in store for us:

• The Pirates over the Brewers: The Brewers are the much better club, but Maholm is better than Suppon.
• The Cubs over the Phillies: The Phillies have to lose some time and it might as well be against Zambrano.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: A. J. Burnett will make sure the Orioles go Oh for 2009 in Yankee Stadium.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: How exactly did the Rockies lose that game last night?
• The Marlins over the Padres: Nolasco has been terrific and that should continue against the poor Padres.
• The Twins over the Athletics: Mercifully for the A's, Giambi is now on the DL.
• The Mets over the Nationals: How about that Lannon last night? His rhythmical partner, Stammen won't have the same success.
• The Mariners over the Tigers: King Felix will shut the Tigers down.
• The Blue Jays over the Indians: The Pavano Experience continues. Romero should bounce back from his last bad outing.
• The Braves over the Giants: In the best match up of the year, Jurrjens squeaks out a win over Lincecum.
• The Astros over the Cardinals: Another great match up of Oswalt versus Carpenter. The Astros have been hot, especially at home against the Cardinals.
• The Rangers over the Red Sox: Okay, let's ride this puppy.
• The Angels over the Royals: The heart wanted to go with Bannister and the Royals, but the head said, "What are you, stupid?"
• The Bay Rays over the White Sox: The listing says Shields versus Danks, but the Fan read somewhere that Danks was going to miss this start.
• The Reds over the Dodgers: Arroyo has been great and Billingsley has looked tired.

Yesterday: 13-3 Woooo!
Week: 29-14
Month: 126-92

Thinking about Livan and Moehler

The Fan has totally bought into sabermetrics and all the new stats that have emerged in the present day game of MLB. Part of it is the fear of being left behind as an old dog that can't learn new tricks. Part of it is the love of statistics even though the math skills got rusty something like thirty years ago. And because of these new statistics and partly because of observation, this writer has spent a lot of time in the FanDome ragging on Livan and Moehler and other pitchers that seem to get cuffed around a lot. But then those pitchers seem to win their share of games. So where is the truth here? What does those vaunted stats say or not say about those pitchers? Let's take a different approach.

What if these pitchers are really good half the time and really bad half the time? That would make their overall stats pretty horrible and thus the ERAs over 5.00 and such. Those end result stats would make most (including this writer) conclude that these pitchers aren't very valuable to their teams. But is that true? If a guy is effective half the time and ineffective half the time, isn't he as valuable as someone who was effective half the time and passable half the time and loses? Both types of pitchers win as often and lose as often, right? So does it matter what happens in the losses? They will still be losses either way.

As the Fan writes this, he wonders if he is making any sense or if the sabermetric guys would crucify the Fan as a heretic. But something must be said for the fact that Livan is now 6-5 and Moehler is 7-5 even though they sport identical ERAs of 4.92. Both are good when they win and bad when they lose.

Want proof? In Livan's six wins, he has an ERA of 1.54. In those games, he has an OPS against of .700. His strikeout to walk ratio is 1.5/1 which is respectable. Those are good numbers! In his losses, his ERA is 9.59 and his OPS against is 1.087. So when he wins, batters against him are like Jeff Francoeur. When he loses, batters against him are Pujols.

Now Brian Moehler. In wins, Moehler has an ERA of 2.54 and an OPS against of .746. Good numbers. In losses, the ERA is 12.76 and the OPS against is 1.209. Ugh. But again, if he is good more times than he is really bad, then isn't that the same as someone who is good the same amount of the time and passable the same amount of time as Moehler is bad?

Most would agree that Andy Pettitte, for example, is a much better pitcher than Moehler and Livan. But let's look at the same win/loss splits. In wins, Pettitte has an ERA of 2.44 and an OPS against of .664. In losses, he has an ERA of 8.20 and and OPS against of .908. Pretty similar, so maybe not a good example. How about John Danks of the White Sox? Danks has a 3.98 ERA. So he's better than Livan or Moehler, right? Danks is 8-6, not much better than Livan or Moehler. Again, he his spectacular in his wins and has an ERA of 7.52 in his losses.

Both Pettitte and Danks have better ERAs and OPS against numbers in their losses than our friends Livan and Moehler. But all four are as effective in their wins. And all four have more wins than losses. So isn't it similar?

There are some other factors. For example, if Livan and Moehler get blown out when they lose, as they often do, then their team's bullpens will take more of a beating then a Pettitte or a Danks who at least hang around long enough in their losses to not overly tax the bullpen. So that's a factor.

But perhaps, when all is said and done, teams like the Astros and the Mets will take the ugly with the good as long as the good happens slightly more often than the ugly. Perhaps they know more than this writer.

Game Picks - Tuesday: July 21, 2009

Yesterday's picks were fraught with danger and it seems fortunate that six games were picked correctly out of twelve. No complaints there. Can't believe the Twins blew their game. When this picker went to bed, they were ahead. Livan did this picker in again. And whatever possessed the keyboard to help this picker pick against the Phillies needs to be exorcised. But whatever the success rate of the picks occurred, it was still sweet that the Rangers beat the Red Sox.

Sixteen games are on the schedule today because of the rain out in Kansas City. So it will be a big day at the ball parks:

• The Angels over the Royals: Santana versus Ponson? Yeesh. This won't be pretty.
• The Nationals over the Mets: Oliver Perez is a younger version of Livan. Either very ugly or very effective. There are no in betweens.
• The Phillies over the Cubs: The Phillies juggernaut is stomach turning, but what are you going to do?
• The Brewers over the Pirates: The Brew Crew needs to get moving or they will be cooked soon.
• The Tigers over the Mariners: Garrett Olson versus Porcello. Ick. Could go either way.
• The Orioles over the Yankees: Why would the Yankees throw a game away starting Mitre? They have nothing better in the minors than that?
• The Indians over the Blue Jays: Not sure about Cecil, but Lee has been pitching great.
• The Braves over the Giants: The Big Sadowski looks good, but Lowe should win.
• The Astros over the Cardinals: Got to go with main man, Wandy Rodriguez.
• The Red Sox over the Rangers: Beckett is due for a clunker. But it won't be in this game against Hunter.
• The Bay Rays over the White Sox: Don't feel good picking Richard to win, so will go the other way.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: The Rockies as the wildcard would be kind of a cool thing.
• The Angels over the Royals: Again. Hate day/night double headers. Chen is pitching for the Royals. The Angels will enjoy that.
• The Marlins over the Padres: Volstad should beat the poor hapless Padres.
• The Twins over the Athletics: How the heck did the Twins lose last night??
• The Dodgers over the Reds: Homer Bailey needs to change his first name. It's unseemly for a pitcher.

Yesterday: 6-6
Week: 16-11
Month: 113-89

Joba the But

Watched the Yankees game yesterday against the Tigers on MLB.tv and it was a great game...unless you are a Tigers' fan. The big story of the game was not that the Yankees won the game 2-1 on two solo homers by Teixeira and A-Rod. The story was that Joba Chamberlain had a very good game and Phil Hughes came in and did what Joba used to do in the eighth inning. Much has been written about the role Joba should be playing for the Yankees. The "but" though is if he can pitch like yesterday in any kind of consistent manner.

It's hard to forget that Joba Chamberlain is just three years out of the University of Nebraska. He is only 24 years old. He didn't exactly get much seasoning in the minors before being on the express lane to the Yankees. His trouble is the expectations he created with his mind-boggling debut in 2007. The guy came up late in the year and quickly became the eighth inning stud and probably saved the Yankees' season that year. He pitched 24 innings, struck out 34, gave up 12 hits and only walked six. His ERA+ was a stupid 1192.

But here is another "but" concerning that mythical year. Joba was lucky. Yes, he did have a great strikeout to nine inning ratio, but his line drive percentage was 22.8%. Those line drives didn't fall in very often. And when runners did get on base, 96.6% of them didn't score. His xFIP for that short stretch of games was 2.55. That's still very good, but shows he was very fortunate too.

Last year fell more into line with how Joba pitched. His ERA for the season was a very good 2.60 compared to his FIP of 2.66. His strikeouts per nine innings dropped but that was to be expected with some starts thrown in the mix. His ground ball ratio improved and his line drive percentage improved as well.

This year, there was much reason to be concerned. His walks per nine innings are way up. He's given up way more homers. And watching him regularly, he just didn't seem to have the same fire in his belly when he pitched. The Fan thinks that a post-game interview yesterday with Teixeira showed a lot of insight. Teixeira said that Joba pitched more quickly, which kept his fielders more in the game and on their toes. That insight seems to be right on point as Joba has given up ten unearned runs this year. But despite the unearned runs, Joba hasn't been great this year up until yesterday and he seemed to be on the brink of losing his place.

The Fan read a story yesterday. Can't find it now to give you the link, but it was probably on Yahoo Sports concerning Joba and the pitcher mentioned going home for four days to play with his son. The story came out before Joba pitched yesterday. In the story, Joba talked about how energizing it was to spend time away from baseball and with his son. He talked about getting back to having fun and getting back to helping his team. Again, the article was insightful in that Joba is just a young guy who hasn't figured it out yet. He did seem to lack focus and he did seem like he wasn't having any fun.

Yesterday was the Joba Chamberlain that people have been looking for. Against a very good team, he had the fire back. He pumped his fist after an inning ending strikeout. He looked intent and focused on each batter. It was the kind of performance that (despite the three walks and another homer) indicates the kind of pitcher he can be.

We'll see what the next start brings. "But" the role for Joba is right where he is. If he can keep his focus and go out there and have fun and keep his team in games, he is worth much more as a starter than a reliever. Phil Hughes is now going through much the same thing. He's pitching like Joba in the bullpen and now the debate will shift to Hughes and what he should be doing. But Rob Neyer is right, the future for Hughes is as a starter. Just like it is for Joba.

And this Fan still believes that in the long run, the Yankees are better off with those two in their future than the great Roy Halladay. Both are cheap for a few years, have a longer up side and can keep the Yankees competitive for quite a few years. Time will tell how it all plays out though.

Game Picks - Monday: July 20, 2009

Another gorgeous day in Maine! This game picker fared very well on games yesterday but poorly on the golf course. Not exactly sure if the picker would have been happier if those results had been switched. Nah. It's all good. Well, all good except for Tom Watson. What a shame. The Fan bets that Stewart Cink knows how Roger Maris felt in 1961. If Cink had not sunk that birdie on the 18th hole, we would have had history. Nobody but Cink's mother wanted him to win that tournament.

Anyway, this is a baseball blog, so we must get back on track. Today is a good day for a Monday as there are thirteen games scheduled, not bad for a Monday. Here is a look at how the day should go:

• The Pirates over the Brewers: Yeah, yeah. The Fan knows the Brewers are the better team. But how many times can the Fan get burned picking against Ohlendorf?
• The Cubs over the Phillies: Ted Lilly has been a bull lately and the Cubs are starting to heat up.
• The Nationals over the Mets: Former Marlin, Scott Olsen, should beat Livan.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Pettitte has been shaky lately, but he's at home and he's rested.
• The Giants over the Braves: Lots of tough games today! This one pits phenom Hanson against the no-hit guy, Sanchez.
• The Cardinals over the Astros: The Cardinals need to show the Astros that this is their division.
• The Rangers over the Red Sox: The Rangers got a big win yesterday and should do well against an aging John Smoltz. Millwood goes for the Rangers.
• The Angels over the Royals: This one looks like a sure a lock as any, but young O'Sullivan is pitching for the Angels against You-never-know-what-you'll-get-from-Ponson.
• The White Sox over the Bay Rays: Still not sold on David Price.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: De La Rosa should beat those guys.
• The Marlins over the Padres: Perpetual prospect Vanden Hurk goes for the Marlins over another young Padres' pitcher.
• The Twins over the Athletics: The Twins should have no problem here. Joe Mauer is in a huge slump though.
• The Reds over the Dodgers: Micah Owings sentimental pick. Still, the Dodgers are sending Schmidt out there which doesn't inspire confidence.

Those are some tough games to call today. It could be disastrous. But that's what feels and looks right based on knowledge and experience. Enjoy your day today.

Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 10-5
Month: 107-83

Pitching Ace Pinch Runs

So the Astros were losing to the Dodgers going into the ninth inning on Saturday, 5-2, and faced Jonathan Broxton in the ninth. Broxton promptly walked Tejada. He then gave up a single to shortstop. Broxton then whiffed Pence and Coste. Two outs, men on first and second. Lance Berkman pinch hits for Michaels and walked. If Broxton walked Berkman on purpose, it was brilliant even if it was the tying run. With the bases loaded and the tying run on first, the Astros send out arguably their best pitcher, Wandy Rodriguez, to run for Berkman. Whuh?

Sure pitchers have been pinch runners in years past. But did it ever make sense? First, pitchers hardly ever get on base and would be less prepared to have the instincts needed to make the right decisions. Secondly, only a double that bangs around the wall awhile or a triple is going to score a runner from first, so why wouldn't any old bench player do?

All strategy aside, we're talking about the Astros best pitcher. Pitching is gold these days. Teams like the Red Sox hoard it like 1849 panhandlers in California. Why would you risk injury to your best pitcher on a long shot that he may score from first base on a double or a triple. That's a lot of hard and wild running to ask a non-hitter to do. And no other lesser pitcher was available to run?

The Astros were fortunate that Ivan Rodriguez pinch hit and struck out to end the game. It did mean the game, but they were fortunate that Wandy didn't have to run the bases.

Game Picks - Sunday: July 19, 2009

This picker is on a serious roll now. Even picked against Greinke and got it correct, thanks to the usual mismanagement of his bullpen by Trey Hillman. It could have been even better, but the Marlins game was washed out before a complete game could be determined. The Fan had the Marlins and they were winning. But no complaints here. After a rainy day, the sun is shining and the golf course is calling the Fan with its song of bliss.

So here are today's picks in a hurry so the tee time isn't missed!

• The Mariners over the Indians: Never have much faith in Bedard, but it's the Indians after all.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Hate picking against Halladay, but Lester has been awe inspiring lately.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: Just can't see the Marlins winning this one with Miller on the mound.
• The Reds over the Brewers: Hate picking Cueto because you never know what you are going to get. He's terrific or he's blown out early. And he's facing Gallardo. But Braun is out with a sore thumb, so we'll go with the upset.
• The Pirates over the Giants: In a match up of All Stars, Duke out pitches Cain.
• The Nationals over the Cubs: Hart versus Mock. Who? and Who? Riggleman has to win his first game some time. Might as well be today.
• The Yankees over the Tigers: Jackson could give the Yankees fits, but Chamberlain is pitching to stay with the Yankees as Halladay looms in his head.
• The White Sox over the Orioles: The Orioles will probably stay in the game with Guthrie, but the White Sox (dang it all) are on a serious roll.
• The Bay Rays over the Royals: Hochever has the look of a pitcher figuring it out. But the Bay Rays have a much better bullpen (and manager).
• The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks got their win for the week already with Haren.
• The Rockies over the Padres: Main man, Jason Marquis gets the call and the win.
• The Angels over the Athletics: The Angels are going to win the West. Darn it all.
• The Dodgers over the Astros: California may be broke, but they have good baseball teams.
• The Braves over the Mets: Vazquez should have no trouble with the Mets'...ahem...lineup.
• The Twins over the Rangers: The Twins finish the sweep and the Rangers begin their slide out of contention.

Yesterday: 10-4
Week: 35-17
Month: 98-76

A True Kindness

This post doesn't have anything to do about baseball, so if you want to skip it, the Fan will understand. But it's a post that needs to be written because sometimes such things have to come out of the soul. Today is such a day.

First a few things about the Fan. The Fan has two knees and neither one works very well. Besides that, months working in the basement and at the mall during the Christmas season have left the Fan with a painful heel that is hard to stand on, never mind walk on. Not to sound like your Aunt Margaret, but the Fan also has a bad back. Lastly, money is kind of tight (the understatement of the year). So when a recent freak storm blew 65 MPH for four or five hours, the shingles on the garage nearly all blew off. It was one of those things where the garage faces south and the wind was a south wind.

The insurance company would have covered it, but they have a $500 deductible and so the Fan decided to forgo that route (why do we even have insurance anyway when it never pays to have it?). So the Fan went to the hardware store and purchased some packs of shingles, some nails and was going to attempt the roof alone. Well, the storm was a month and a half ago and the roof was still a mess. With some major orders to fill and really crappy weather this summer, the roof had to wait.

When John heard of the Fan's plight, he offered to help. The Fan didn't think he was serious. After all, John was just an acquaintance: not someone the Fan has even known that long. So the Fan didn't think much of it until the Fan ran into John the other day and he said he'd be over Saturday. "Okay," thought the Fan.

The Fan woke up on the appointed Saturday and it was pouring. Teeming is more like the word. And the radar looked like it was going to rain all day. So the Fan poured some coffee and started planning what to do on a rainy day. But then John's pickup pulled into the driveway. "What the heck?"

So in the rain, John sets up his ladder and gets his tools out. "Uh, John, it's pouring."

"So?"

Well, okay. So the ladder is set up and John heads up. The Fan started heading up and John saw the Fan wincing in pain plus saw the look of ennui on the Fan's face and said, "I don't expect you to be on the roof."

When the Fan replied that didn't make sense, John just smiled and said that the Fan could be his gofer.

In the pouring rain, John stripped off broken shingles, pried up half buried nails until he had a clean work space and then spread the tar paper out. The Fan retrieved dead shingles from the yard, brought up supplies, bought lunch at Burger King (well the Fan's wife did), and fretted on the ground about not doing anything very constructive.

But John worked up there all day. Did the Fan mention that it was raining all day? John finished at six o'clock after ten hours on the roof. His Saturday was spent on the Fan's roof when he could have been with his family. He worked in the rain when he could have been home and dry. He gave up his day off with his kids to see the Fan's rain soaked face all day.

When John was done, we shook hands and the Fan has to admit that he cried with thanksgiving and relief. A major problem was solved and a man the Fan hardly knows did all the work and saved the Fan countless days and endless frustration. The Fan doesn't know how to shingle! Not that the Fan wouldn't have given it a go. But now the Fan doesn't have to because John did it for him.

Shingling isn't what John does for a living. He's not a handyman or a carpenter. He's not a factory worker or someone who gets paid for working with his hands. This kindness...this incredible kindness...was performed by the president of our local bank. John is the president of the Fan's local bank. And he shingled the Fan's roof. Incredible.

Thank you, John. Thank you so very much.

Ghost of Rolen Past

Scott Rolen went two for three on Saturday, scoring two runs, and was a big reason why the Blue Jays put an end to the Red Sox winning streak. Scott Rolen is now batting .322. Yes, that's .322. And no, that's not for just a few games here and there. That's over 79 games and over 300 plate appearances.

At the age of 34, Scott Rolen is looking a lot like the Rolen that was a member of every National League All Star team from 2002 to 2006. And it's a story that few outside of some of the Fan's friends in Toronto are even aware of. The Blue Jays installed Rolen into the cleanup spot after the struggles of Vernon Wells and others to fill that role. The move has worked out beautifully even if the Blue Jays have not fared well as a team over the last month of the season.

Rolen has been around for a long time. He was drafted right out of high school by the Phillies in the second round of the 1993 draft. He debuted in 37 games in 1996 and followed that season with a Rookie of the Year campaign in 1997. That season began a run of eight straight seasons with an OPS+ of 119 or higher.

The big mystery is why Rolen didn't make the All Star team until 2002. He hit 31 homers and drove in 110 in 1998. He hit 25 more homers and drove in 107 in 2001. But he either lacked recognition until he was traded to the Cardinals in 2002 or something.

Rolen had his two best seasons for the Cardinals in 2003 and 2004 with 2004 being the only year that Rolen recorded an OPS over 1.000. He continued that fine play throughout the 2004 World Series run that eventually led to the famous Red Sox series win. Rolen came in fourth in MVP voting that year.

Then the big feud with Tony LaRussa started in 2006, a year that saw the Cardinals win it all despite a mediocre season. There is no sense rehashing that event when it has been so well documented. If you somehow missed the feud, it is pretty well documented in this sportingnews.com article. The end result was a poor year in 2007 for Rolen, who was not on speaking terms with his manager. LaRussa made classless remarks that the linked article details. Rolen asked to be traded and he was to the Blue Jays for Troy Glaus.

After 2008, the deal looked like a steal for the Cardinals. Rolen struggled with his health and at the ball parks while Glaus had a successful campaign. After two down years, Rolen was pretty much forgotten.

But Cito Gaston didn't forget about Rolen and apparently healthy, Rolen is paying Gaston dividends. With Scuturo and Hill ahead of Rolen, the third baseman should have plenty of runs to drive in the remainder of the year.

Driving in runs is what Rolen has always been good at doing. He is three RBI away from 1100 for his career. He has also hit 750 extra base hits. And even after two down seasons, Rolen's career line is .284/.370/.500. Those numbers indicate that his problems of the last couple of years had to be health related because he's been just too good and too consistent a player to have it otherwise. And of course, the Fan hasn't even touched on Rolen's eight time Gold Glove wins. His defense is still top notch and Toronto has the current pleasure of watching one of the best third basemen of his generation.

Game Picks - Saturday: July 18, 2009

This picker is on a semi-roll in somewhat unspectacular fashion. While correctly picking nine out of fifteen games, there was no excuse for getting the Oswalt game incorrect or this picker's continued insanity for picking the Orioles every day. Buckholtz wasn't spectacular for the Red Sox (he walked three and struck out three) but Romero didn't hold up for the Blue Jays. As for the Pittsburgh/San Francisco game, it lived up to the pitching duel aspect and became a battle of the bullpens for fourteen innings. The Fan can hardly be blamed for that. Lincecum was brilliant but so was Maholm.

Fifteen more big games are on tap for Saturday, so let's see what they bring:

• The Yankees over the Tigers: Sabathia needs to come up big against Verlander for this pick to come off correctly. But the Yankees already dinged the hundred mile an hour fastball of Zumaya, so there you go.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: T'was silly picking against the Red Sox yesterday. The Blue Jays seem dispirited these days.
• The Mets over the Braves: Santana has had plenty of rest. He'll win if the Mets score a run or two.
• The White Sox over the Orioles: The Fan has got to stop the madness. Even if he does hate the White Sox.
• The Angels over the Athletics: Weaver should be better than Mazzaro.
• The Cubs over the Nationals: Riggelman won't get his first win in this game either.
• The Pirates over the Giants: Really root for Zito as he continues to struggle, but can't pick for him either.
• The Mariners over the Indians: How can the Indians keep throwing Ohka out there?
• The Marlins over the Phillies: Josh Johnson and wishful thinking.
• The Reds over the Brewers: When you have two struggling pitchers like Harang and Parra, go with the one with more experience.
• The Bay Rays over the Royals: The Fan never picks against Greinke, but the Bay Rays are almost unstoppable now on offense.
• The Diamondbacks over the Cardinals: Pujols is the eighth wonder of the world. Two more homers yesterday? But Haran is pitching.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Got to stick with Feldman. It's all Josh's fault.
• The Rockies over the Padres: The Padres have fallen into a deep funk and even Gonzalez can't hit.
• The Dodgers over the Astros: Can't see Hampton stopping that lineup.

Yesterday: 9-6
Week: 25-13
Month: 88-72

Game Picks - Friday: July 17, 2009

Another somewhat successful night at picking Major League Baseball games. Of course there were only eight games, so it couldn't have gone too badly. The Nats over the Cubs was a stupid pick. And this picker should never have picked against Wandy. He's been a boon here all year (and for the Astros).

Tonight we get back to a full schedule. Nearly half the teams had four days off and should be raring to go. Every team's top of the rotation should lead things off, so it could be a night of aces. Here we go:

• The Giants over the Pirates: Lincecum versus Maholm. Good matchup. Both teams struggle on offense.
• The Cubs over the Nationals: Riggelman may never win a game with the Nats. Don't you just cringe when a team says its new manager is a "disciplinarian"?
• The Mariners over the Indians: Huff has been decent. But Felix is king.
• The Yankees over the Tigers: A. J. Burnett over a kid named French.
• The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Romero should beat a spot start by Buckholz which may be a showcase for a Halladay deal?
• The Marlins over the Phillies: Nolasco has been fantastic of late, so will go with him over Hamels who has been ordinary.
• The Brewers over the Reds: The Braunies should jump all over Arroyo.
• The Braves over the Mets: Jurrjens over Pelfrey because the Braves at least have a major league team right now.
• The Twins over the Rangers: Never feel good when Padilla starts. Get ready to duck, Twins.
• The Bay Rays over the Royals: Shields should be slightly better than Bannister.
• The Orioles over the White Sox: Really like this Berken kid.
• The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: Carpenter over Garland in a battle of "wily" veterans.
• The Rockies over the Padres: Boy, Adrian Gonzalez is in a serious slump.
• The Athletics over the Angels: Picking on Cahill to have a good night. Giambi is still batting under .200. Geez.
• The Dodgers over the Astros: Super match up of Billingsley and Oswalt. Oswalt has been on fire, but the Dodgers are at home with their best pitcher on the mound.

Well, that does it. Now we get to see what happens. Have a great weekend everyone.

Yesterday: 5-3
Week: 16-7
Month: 88-72

Odds and Ends from Thursday Night

Ah! Baseball is back and it's already been interesting. It's possible that this Fan is a baseball dork. Can't help it. New things happen every day. Fresh games full of possibilities occur nightly and except for the slow Mondays and Thursdays, there are fifteen new reasons to find out what's going on every day.

The Fan's been watching the Yahoo MLB page while putting some hard cover books together. When there isn't time to watch a game, Yahoo does a clean job of refreshing constantly and showing what's going on. Some major sites don't even refresh. No names will be mentioned, but one of them has been featured here as having the worst webmasters in the known universe.

And even though there were only nine games scheduled, there was plenty to smile about and wonder about. Such as:

- As predicted here, the Home Run Derby champ did hit a homer off of Homer Bailey. It was just too good symmetry not to come true. Bailey was awful. He walked four and gave up six hits in five and a third.

- Jamie Moyer. Man. What can you say? The guy is just unfathomable. He pitched seven innings of shut out ball and only gave up one hit. One hit. The guy is almost as old as the Fan and couldn't knock over one of those arcade monkeys and yet he one-hits big leaguers for seven innings. How? The Fan keeps predicting against him and he keeps making the Fan look like a moron.

- Oliver Perez pitched for the Mets tonight against the Braves. He pitched six innings, gave up five hits and walked four and left with a 3-3 tie. In today's game of low pitcher expectation, that qualifies for a quality start, no? Seems rather pedantic to the Fan. But the Mets lost anyway since they can't hit with their AAA fill ins.

- Cliff Lee "scattered" nine hits over nine full innings to beat the Mariners. Immediately after the game, the Indians' GM's phone started ringing again and he kept saying no. The Fan noticed that Sizemore is back to leading off. Why? The guy is an RBI machine. Put in third in the order and leave him there for Pete's sake. Equally confusing is why the Mariners continue to bat Branyon second in the order. The guy is the big stud in that lineup. Why bat him second? By the way, not too many people have noticed that Travis Hafner has an OPS of .944. Isn't that Comeback Player of the Year stuff? Of course, he's only played in half of the Indians' games.

- The Cubbies got off to a good start for the second half with a good game from Harden. The Fan has to admit he didn't see that coming. Lannon pitched well again for the Nats but Harden was better. Adam Dunn did what he tends to do from time to time. He had four plate appearances and never hit the ball. He struck out three times and walked once.

The late games will have to wait until morning as the Fan is done tuckered out today.

Alex Rodriguez: Revisited

When Alex Rodriguez first came back to the Yankees after his hip surgery, he didn't start off very well. Writers all over the web sphere were writing how either his hip had destroyed his game or hinting (or flat out stating) that since he couldn't use PEDs now, he wasn't the same player. He has been all but forgotten in the daily grind of day to day baseball. But guess what? A-Rod has quietly started to build his numbers and they look darn close to his career norms. Oops.

In Rodriguez's last 28 days, his numbers look like this: .324/.467/.676. For those of you disbelievers, that's an OPS of 1.143. His year totals to date: .258/.411/.548. His current OPS for the year is .959, just .008 off his career mark. His OPS+ sits at 150 as apposed to his career OPS+ of 147.

And if you are thinking that his numbers are juiced (poor choice of a word there) because of the new Yankee Stadium, consider that his sOPS+ is higher on the road than at home. So it appears that Mr. Rodriguez is not near death as a player yet.

Alex Rodriguez is only seven homers behind the AL leader (Carlos Pena) who has played thirty more games. He is in the top 25 in the league in RBIs. He season projects out to 30 homers and 97 RBIs. Not bad for a guy who can't play without PEDs.

Wishful Thinking for the Second Half

Just about every baseball writer there is writes some kind of post or article concerning:

- First half surprises
- First half awards
- Second half predictions
- Second half things to look for
- Trades that will help teams in the second half...

You get the idea. It's an age-old tradition, mostly because there isn't much else to write about for three days during the All Star break. Hey, did you catch that, "Legends/Celebrity Softball" game? No. Didn't think so. Anyway, since we have to write something to fill the dead space between the schedule, the Fan might as well do the expected. Let's add a little twist to things though. What follows is a list of second half wishes followed by what will probably happen instead:

Wishful Thinking: The Brewers will win the National League Central. The Fan just digs the way Braun and Fielder relate to each other and do that cool boxing routine when one of them does something good.
What Will Probably Happen: The Cardinals will win the division. Grrrr...that LaRussa.

Wishful Thinking: The Marlins will win the National League East. After watching that team for two and a half weeks while on vacation in Florida, the Fan really enjoyed that team.
What Will Probably Happen: The Phillies will win the division. Grrrr...Hate that same old same old.

Wishful Thinking: The Twins will win the American League Central. Morneau and Mauer are just amazing players playing in a small market with a stadium that has baggies for outfield walls.
What Will Probably Happen: The Tigers will win the division. But that's pretty cool too because no one expected them to.

Wishful Thinking: Roy Halladay will win the Cy Young Award...while pitching the entire season for the Blue Jays.
What Will Probably Happen: Halladay gets traded to the Yankees for Joba Chamberlain and the Yankees top centerfield prospect.

Wishful Thinking: Pedro Martinez will come back with a swagger and win eight out of his ten starts.
What Will Probably Happen: He'll pitch eight games, go 3-3 with an ERA around 5.00 and then get hurt.

Wishful Thinking: The Dodgers will face the Red Sox in the World Series and Manny Ramirez will personally destroy his old team. Now that would be fun to watch.
What Will Probably Happen: The Dodgers will lose the NLCS and all the sanctimonious writers will say it's Manny's fault.

Wishful Thinking: Micah Owings will go on a run and win eight out of twelve while hitting six more homers.
What Will Probably Happen: He'll continue to pitch one good game and two bad ones and hit the occasional bomb.

Wishful Thinking: The Yankees face the Red Sox in the ALCS and purge the 2004 series from memory.
What Will Probably Happen: The Bay Rays overtake the Yankees for the wildcard and Girardi will get fired. Personally, this observer thinks Girardi has done a great job.

Wishful Thinking: Jeter will end the season at .320/.390/.480 with 200 hits, 100 runs scored and 15 homers.
What Will Probably Happen: He'll do exactly that and cement his HOF credentials.

Wishful Thinking: The Angels and Mariners will fade again and the Rangers will win the AL West. It would be so much fun to see a different team in the playoffs!
What Will Probably Happen: The Rangers will be the team that fades and those dang Halos will win the darn thing again.

Wishful Thinking: Albert Pujols will win the triple crown. He is such a cool guy and seems as great a guy as he is a player.
What Will Probably Happen: He'll lose out on one of the categories because everyone walks the guy now. Personally, that's crap and any manager who does that is cheating baseball and cheating the fans...and is a gigantic buck buck buck chicken.

Wishful Thinking: Carl Crawford steals 100 bases, the first guy to do it in decades.
What Will Probably Happen: He'll end up with 80 or something.

Wishful Thinking: Tim Wakefield will win 20 games this year.
What Will Probably Happen: He'll win 16 or so.

Wishful Thinking: We'll have plenty to talk about because MLB is always new and always exciting and we'll see things we've never seen before.
What Will Probably Happen: Exactly that because that's why we love this game.

Game Picks - Thursday: July 16, 2009

Yay! Baseball is back on Thursday with a partial slate of games. After three days rest, why do some teams need another day off?

Those three days were murder. Yes, the All Star game was mildly amusing and President Obama was jaunty and fun. Tim McCarver was unbearable as usual and it was stupid that Halladay had to bat in the second inning. The DH should be the rule for all All Star games. But all that is behind us now and we can look forward to a fun-filled second half. Weeee! Here we go!

Thursday's picks:

• The Nationals over the Cubs: The Cubs second half starts with a thud as Lannon out guns Harden.
• The Indians over the Mariners: Lee pitches for all those scouts again.
• The Braves over the Mets: Uh oh! Don't look now, but Perez is back for the Mets. Duck!
• The Brewers over the Reds: The Home Run Derby champ bats against Homer Bailey? Can it be more fitting?
• The Marlins over the Phillies: Moyer is like Wakefield. How? Why? How long?
• The Rockies over the Padres: Cook should be all over the weak-hitting Pads.
• The Angels over the A's: Santana should be better than Braden. Does anyone remember Braden Theatres?
• The Dodgers over the Astros: Hate to pick against Wandy, but the Dodgers are at home and they rarely lose there.

Sunday: 11-4
Week: 11-4
Month: 83-69

Hate the All Star Break

Major League Baseball's All Star Game is probably the best of its type. The NBA All Star Game is also very good, but the NFL "Pro Bowl" sucks. Even so, this writer hates the All Star Break for several reasons. First, it puts a halt for three days on the season and the Fan goes into serious withdrawals. Second, the game itself is usually anti-climatic. It's fun seeing all those stars together and then the big build up comes from the announcers and then the game itself is played and it's usually the pitchers dominating and a low scoring game.

The Home Run Derby that comes the day before the game is now somewhat tainted. It started with the exploits of Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa and it now seems to symbolize all that went wrong with baseball and the mess we are now left with. Sure, there are still fun moments like Josh Hamilton last year. But by and large, it's a pretty boring affair with far too many commercials and too much talking by the announcers to cover up the fact that the batter is mostly letting pitches go or hitting line drives that fall short of the fence. And man, don't you hate those awful interviews after each turn? The only positive is that some lucky American gets to win a house. Are they still doing that? And do they still play those gawd-awful celebrity softball games after? Now those were cheesy.

For the Fan, the All Star Break is something to get through and not something to look forward to. It's like a visit to Grandma's when you are a kid. "Man, let's just get this over with!" The Futures Game would be more exciting to this writer if he was better versed on the prospects. So add up the entire package and all it means is that for three days, the Fan can't make any picks, has no box scores to pore through, no rundown of the previous day on Josh's site, no Royals lament from Posnanski, no hair pulling from eyebleaf's site. It's just three days to endure until we get back to the fun that is the daily baseball odyssey toward the playoffs.

Game Picks - Sunday: July 12, 2009

Well that didn't take long. The week's picks took a dive faster than a Yankee pitcher against the Angels' lineup. Faster even than Nick Johnson's and Adam Dunn's homers went back to back against the Astros. The one question that remains is why this picker had to lose everything gained in one lousy day? Can you say crushed? Yup. Crushed.

So it is with some trepidation and with a bit of a sheepish feeling that the Fan presents to you Sunday's picks:

• The Cubs over the Cardinals: Kyle Lohse is coming back from missing a few starts. That's always a red flag and Rule #2.
• The Tigers over the Indians: Verlander versus Tomo Ohka. How could this go wrong?
• The Reds over the Mets: Shouldn't have picked against Santana yesterday.
• The Phillies over the Pirates: Happ should be better than Vazquez. What happened to the Pirates rotation?
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: Who and what exactly is a Rzepczynski?
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Yes, the Royals might have a chance pitching Chen against Beckett. Sure they do.
• The Bay Rays over the A's: Don't know how the A's won yesterday, but the odds are against them doing it twice in a row.
• The Nationals over the Astros: Zimmermann should be better than Moehler.
• The Dodgers over the Brewers: Good match up with Kershaw against Gallardo.
• The Twins over the White Sox: The Fan refuses to believe that the creaky White Sox are better than the Twins.
• The Rockies over the Braves: Braves' rookie, Medlen, isn't as good as Hanson.
• The Yankees over the Angels: Sabathia needs to right this ship.
• The Giants over the Padres: Zito should beat Correia.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: Josh Johnson should over power the snake hides.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: So the Rangers can beat the Angels but not the Mariners?
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: The second half of the day/night double-header and on national TV.

Yesterday: 5-10
Week: 51-47
Month: 72-65

Why Are the Mets so Stupid?

It's bad enough the other team in New York goes out and picks up pitchers like Livan Hernandez and Tim Redding or thinks that Angel Pagan can still play. It's bad enough that they are missing most of their team to injury. If all that isn't bad enough, they then allow themselves to get hoodwinked by a team in their own division.

Do the Mets really think Jeff Francoeur is a better player than Ryan Church? They really think that? Francoeur has already done the unthinkable in losing Bobby Cox who hardly ever gives up on anybody. The guy has a 68 OPS+ for the year and an 89 for his career. One would think that the 68 is an anomaly with that kind of career mark (as bad as it is) except that Francoeur put up a 73 number last year in 652 plate appearances. A 71 OPS+ in his last 976 plate appearances would be a pretty good indication that Francoeur is not a very good player.

From all indications, Francoeur is a stubborn player who doesn't believe that a walk is anywhere near as good as a strikeout. He has been widely quoted as stating that all the new sabermetrics are a bunch of hooey. That kind of belief shows a guy who doesn't get that he has to improve all aspects of his game as a player if he expects any kind of longevity. He may not buy into sabermetrics, but just about every team in baseball now does. So who will win that contest?

And it's not just his offense. Francoeur has basically been given a two year bye in Atlanta because he once hit 29 homers in a season. he hasn't ever come close to that since, but at least he had positive numbers in the field. Until last season, that is. Last year he threw up a clunker and had a -14 RTOT. With virtually no offense, diminishing power and defense, exactly what kind of player did the Mets think they were getting?

And let's get this straight: The Mets need help on offense, so they trade a guy who is struggling compared to his career numbers but is still a better hitter than Francoeur? Ryan Church is having an off year at the plate (mostly because his manager hates him or something) and still has an OPS+ that is 20 points higher than Francoeur and is only one point less than Francoeur's lifetime OPS+. Umm...what were they thinking?

This observer could understand giving up on Daniel Murphy who has the same kind of numbers currently as Francoeur. But there is no way it seems correct that they went out and got a worse hitter than Church to help fix their injury-riddled offense.

The Braves are geniuses. Don't be surprised if Church doesn't blossom in Atlanta and don't be surprised if Francoeur becomes the latest Met to get booed into submission. The Fan is shaking his head in bewilderment...

Game Picks - Saturday: July 11, 2009

Yesterday was a sunny day no matter how you look at it. Except for the continued mystery of Joba Chamberlain, a stupid pick of the Rockies over Atlanta, a total meltdown by the Marlins and this picker's beany by Cecil, it was a very good day.

With another full day of games on tap, let's get right to the picks:

• The Cubs over the Cardinals: Ted Lilly is the only Cubs pitcher with a chance against this hot team.
• The Yankees over the Angels: Pettitte is due for a decent game and the Angels (though they didn't show it last night) are missing two-thirds of their outfield to injury.
• The Bay Rays over the A's: Garza should have no problem against the meager hitting of the A's.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: Taking a flier that Ohlendorf continues to pitch well.
• The Astros over the Nationals: Mike Hampton might be a better hitter than anyone on the A's.
• The Brewers over the Dodgers: Just can't see how Torre has more faith in Jeff Weaver than any man on earth ever should.
• The Tigers over the Indians: In any perfect world, Galarraga should always beat Carl Pavano.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: Sticking with the Fan's main man, Romero.
• The Reds over the Mets: Santana pitching for the Mets should always be a lock. But with their offense, he has nearly a .500 record.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Meche isn't himself these days and even an iffy 42 year old, Smoltz should be able to push around the terrible hitting Royals.
• The Twins over the White Sox: Is the Fan the only one worried about Joe Mauer's health if he participates in the Home Run Derby?
• The Rockies over the Braves: Jason Marquis is pitching for the Rockies and that is Rule #1.
• The Diamondbacks over the Marlins: Have no faith at all in Sean West, simply because he has no faith in himself.
• The Giants over the Padres: Matt Cain should prevail in this one.
• The Rangers over the Mariners. Andruw Jones should have a good day against Washburn.

Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 46-37
Month: 67-55

Philly Fans Get Victorino Into the All Star Game

Shane Victorino is a good player having a good season. His OPS is .838 and he plays really good defense. But is he better than Pablo Sandoval this year? Not even close. Sandoval has an OPS of .940, a full .102 higher than Victorino. But Philadelphia has a larger fan base than San Francisco does and thus, in the "Vote for the Last Man" thing, Victorino gets the last spot in the All Star Game.

The fan vote is touted as something that gets fans into the game. It is touted as empowering fans to have a voice in who they want to see. But from this Fan's perspective, Giant fans want to see Sandoval in the game as much as Philly fans want to see Victorino. The problem is that there are more Philly fans than there are San Francisco fans.

The fan vote, both in this instance and in the vote for the starters will always heavily favor the larger markets. And as long as this game is going to be selected as it is, there will always be a large number of Red Sox and Yankees and Mets and Phillies because those are large and emphatic fan bases. For all the good intentions of MLB, the fan vote doesn't work and hasn't for a long time.

Is David Ortiz Back?

The first third of the season showed a brutally awful David Ortiz who after sixty games was batting .178 with no homers. He looked lost and he looked slow. It was so bad that it became almost a spectator sport to see how long the really bad could be. But watching Baseball Tonight on ESPN regularly, we have seen a resurgence of the Big Papi as he is hitting the ball for power more often and the analysts on ESPN's highlight show have talked about how Ortiz is again hitting the fastball. But is he all the way back?

The numbers show he is better, but then again, it's hard to be much worse than .178. But he has hardly been the David Ortiz of old either. For all the talk, he's still only batting .250 in his last ten games. He is slugging at a .555 clip for the ten games and that is a hearty number. But if he is suddenly "hot" again, that slugging isn't THAT hot. Not as hot as when he was slugging .621 for entire seasons in the not too distant past.

The good news is that Ortiz is striking out far less. His rate is 17% for the last ten games compared to the 25% for the year and 21% of his career. The bad news is that his walks are down. The last ten games pretty much mirror the rest of the season where he is striking out twice for every one walk (6 Ks and 3 Ws the last ten games). In the past, his ratio was always around one to one.

Ortiz is now at .731 for an OPS and it's a good bet that it could probably reach .800 by the end of the season. He is definitely better than he was earlier in the season, but he is not the David Ortiz of the past, despite his improvement.

Game Picks - Friday: July 10, 2009

In golfing terminology, yesterday's picks were a shank. The Red Sox lost to the Royals? The Yankees won a game where a reliever started? And to finish it all off, the Braves and the Diamondbacks both had bullpens that nuked their games.

Ah well, it's a sunny day in Maine and it's supposed to hit 80 today. It's okay. The sun inspired these shiny new picks:

• The Cardinals over the Cubs: In another week, this race might be over. The Cardinals look like the best team in the division.
• The Phillies over the Pirates: Have been picking Zack Duke game after game and he never gets any runs. So the Fan will pick against him today.
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: Would love to pick the Blue Jays, but not when Cecil is pitching.
• The Tigers over the Indians: Jackson is pitching for Detroit and that should be enough. He shouldn't have been on the All Star squad though.
• The Reds over the Mets: Even a wounded pitcher like Arroyo should beat this AAA lineup.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Lester over Bannister.
• The Bay Rays over the A's: The Bay Rays are playing lights out and can't catch the Yankees and the Red Sox.
• The Astros over the Nationals: Oswalt has been really good lately.
• The Dodgers over the Brewers: Billingsley and company should beat Looper.
• The Twins over the White Sox: The Twins would be in first place if they didn't go Oh for the Yankees.
• The Rockies over the Braves: Lowe's sinker won't sink in Mile High country.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: Nolasco has been terrific since coming back from the minors.
• The Yankees over the Angels: Does anyone understand how far the Yankees would be ahead of this division if they played even .400 ball against the Red Sox?
• The Rangers over the Mariners: Somehow, Feldman always seems to win.
• The Padres over the Giants: The Pads should beat the Giant's fifth starter.

Yesterday: 4-8
Week: 36-32
Month: 57-50

Game Picks - Thursday: July 9, 2009

Egads! What a long day that was! This picker and his wife started at the West Palm Beach airport at 6:00 A. M. and got into Portland, Maine at 4:00 in the afternoon. After a six and a half hour drive north, the destination was reached. But it's good to be home and Maine smells and looks great.

The picks were fairly successful during all of that and that's a happy circumstance. Let's see what today's games bring.

• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: The Bay Rays have skunked the Blue Jays all year. But maybe Halladay can at least salvage one game here.
• The Twins over the Yankees: The Yankees are starting Aceves and Liriano has been good lately.
• The Brewers over the Cardinals: The match up of Pineiro versus Parra seems to favor the Cards, but that was the case last night and the Brewers won.
• The Indians over the White Sox: Huff versus Richard. Don't like either pick, but somebody has to win!
• The Reds over the Phillies: Caution! Sentimental Pick as Owings is pitching for the Reds.
• The Dodgers over the Mets: Wolf over Livan.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Hochever has been pretty good lately, but a patient team like the Red Sox will murder him.
• The Nationals over the Astros: Lannon is the Nats' best pitcher. Ortiz is the Astros' worst.
• The Braves over the Rockies: Hoping that Hanson is better than Cook. This will happen if Hanson throws strikes.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: The Marlins already beat this team once without its best player in the lineup.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: Hunter gets his second big league win over King Felix, who will get mashed around by the Rangers' offense.
• The Giants over the Padres: Lincecum. Is there anything more to say?

Yesterday: 9-6
Week: 32-24
Month: 53-42

Hopefully tonight, the Fan will get back into the regular posting groove. Thank for your patience.

Game Picks - Wednesday: July 8, 2009

It's a travel day on Wednesday and this picker will be in the air and on the road from early morning to late at night. Not wanting to deprive loyal readers with these daily, head-scratching picks. There won't be any results from Tuesday, but that may be a good thing.

Here are Wednesday's pick:

• The Astros over the Pirates: Wandy Rodriguez seems back on track. So the Fan is back in his corner.
• The Braves over the Cubs: Kawakami versus rookie, Hart. Whodat?
• The Rockies over the Nationals: De La Rosa versus Detwiler, who doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: Gaudin has seemed pretty good lately.
• The Marlins over the Giants: Interesting match up here. Volstad has been really good for the Marlins lately. The Big Sadowski has been impressive for the Giants.
• The Orioles over the Mariners: Have you noticed that this picker seems to pick the Orioles almost every night? What's with that?
• The Reds over the Phillies: Homer Bailey was very good last time out. Can he do it two starts in a row?
• The Royals over the Tigers: Greinke!
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: In the continuing battle of the "Ays," Tallet should come back from his last, less than steller outing.
• The Dodgers over the Mets: Kuroda versus Perez. Perez in his first start back. That's Rule #3.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: Wakefield wins #11.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Does it seem like the Cardinals seem ready to put this division away?
• The Yankees over the Twins: Burnett is starting to earn his money.
• The White Sox over the Indians: Contreras seems to have found a new life.
• The Rangers over the Angels: Because the Fan is rooting for the Rangers to end the Angels' division reign.

Think good thoughts for the Fan tomorrow on his travels. Thanks!

Game Picks - Tuesday: July 7, 2009

Our last day in Florida. We head back to our home in Maine tomorrow and it's time. Back to our own bed and our flower gardens, our golf course...and well...back to work. But it has been nice here in Paradise and overall, the picks haven't been awful. They just haven't been great either. Who knows, with any luck, we'll get to watch one more Marlins' game tonight before we go.

Today's picks:

• The Phillies over the Reds: Will the Phillies have anything left after last night's 22-1 performance. This pick thinks they will.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Verlander versus Chen seems like the mismatch of the century.
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: The Fan doesn't really think this will happen. Just hoping it does.
• The Dodgers over the Mets: Pelfrey has been good lately, but will the Mets score any runs?
• The Red Sox over the A's: The A's surprised yesterday by beating the Red Sox. Don't think they will beat Beckett.
• The Braves over the Cubs: The Cubs are heating up. But Vazquez will cool them off and Dempster is due to be Dempster sooner or later.
• The Brewers over the Cardinals: Like Gallardo's chances over the Cards.
• The Pirates over the Astros: Continue to believe in Maholm even though he hasn't been good lately.
• The Yankees over the Twins: Sabathia goes for the Yankees and Baker has given up a lot of homers this year. Not a good thing in Yankee Stadium.
• The White Sox over the Indians: Like Buerhle over Sowers.
• The Nationals over the Rockies: Like Zimmermann over Hammel.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: The Padres are just a better team when the pitchers stack up as equal.
• The Anges over the Rangers: The Rangers use this series to put first time starter, Nippert, out there? What are they, nuts?
• The Orioles over the Mariners: Bedard is back, but what will he last, five innings? Then it's the Mariner bullpen. Ugh.
• The Marlins over the Giants: Josh Johnson should be better than Barry Zito.

There you have it. Have a great Tuesday.

Yesterday: 5-6
Week: 15-11
Month: 36-29

Vazquez and Halladay

Two of the most dominant pitchers in either league are among the rumors being bandied about in the trade market. According to ESPN.com, the Brewers are interested in Vazquez and would have to part with either Gamel or Alcedes Escobar. The same report states that Blue Jays GM, J. P. Ricciardi said, "We have to be open to anything." And that includes Halladay.

Let's start with the Brewers. Gamel hasn't shown anything in his brief stint with the Brewers to show that he should be untouchable. If the Brewers could get a pitcher such as Vazquez, this sidewalk GM would trade Gamel in a heartbeat. The Braves need offense. The Brewers already have two of the best offensive stars in the game. They need pitching. This deal would make great sense for both clubs, especially since Hanson is working out nicely.

On the other hand, Ricciardi would be really stupid to let Halladay get away. It's not just that he is one of the best pitchers in the American League. He is a legend and a hero up in Toronto for a franchise that is struggling to fill seats. What do you say to your fan base if you are trading away your fans' brightest hero? Okay, he's expensive. But what is the cost of losing him?

The Fan does miss the good old days when trades were made to improve both clubs instead of being a vehicle to save money. Any trade the Blue Jays were to make with Halladay would be a salary dump, no matter how anyone else wants to look at it. To trade a B-level major leaguer for prospects makes sense. To trace a true ace for prospects that may never make anything of themselves is stupid. Names like Dukes and Pie litter the field like shrapnel from those kinds of hopes.

Vazquez for Gamel? Heck yeah. Halladay for anybody or any mess of anybodys? No way!

Should Doug Melvin Be Mad?

In a story that surfaced on Monday, Ryan Braun spouted off about the state of his team, his pitching staff and what Braun thinks General Manager, Doug Melvin, should do about it. The story goes on to state that Bob Melvin was angry over the comments. So the question is: Should Melvin be mad?

Unfortunately, we have to fall back on the problem with blogging: This blogger doesn't have access to any previous interactions with Braun and Melvin concerning the team. The Fan doesn't know if Braun had talked to Melvin and found no satisfaction in the conversation. The Fan doesn't know if Braun has a leadership role in the Brewers' clubhouse which would give him a right to discuss the state of the team.

What is known is that that Braun is the best over all player on that team (all due respect to Fielder). The best player on the team does have some consideration on what goes on around him. But if he is the quiet type in the clubhouse and is trying to rouse his team suddenly with his outburst, then it's out of line.

Here is the bottom line to this writer based on what little information is available. First, Doug Melvin should be big enough and secure enough in his position to not get riled by what a "dumb player" has to say. The Fan has been in business for a long time. Employees should never be ridiculed for stating what's on their mind. On the other hand, as a manager of people, the Fan never wanted to be disrespected by an employee because it erodes the respect level the others have for the manager.

This situation is borderline. What Braun is quoted as saying is not really a direct disrespect of Melvin. He actually says that he knows Melvin is trying to better the team. He just hopes it happens quickly. He never said that Melvin was a turkey because he wasn't doing anything. So in this case, Braun didn't disrespect Melvin. Certainly, if Braun had never discussed this privately with Melvin, then it would have been better for Braun to go to Melvin privately to discuss his concerns. But even so, with no disrespect really shown, then Melvin should have just laughed it off. It would have been the bigger move.

As for Braun calling out his teammates, again, that depends on whether Braun has a leadership role in the clubhouse. If he does not, he's out of line. If he does, then this is not that bad a deal. But again, he would have been better served, even if he was a leader, to call out his teammates in the clubhouse and not in the paper.

The most likely scenario is that Braun was frustrated by the loss and spouted off, which was dutifully captured in a story by the writers who overheard what Braun said. In the old days, the writer never would have reported Braun's statements. But if Braun spouted off in the heat of a moment of frustration, then he needs to apologize to his teammates. Again, he did not openly disrespect his general manger and owes Melvin nothing.

All Star Rosters: Fans Blow It Again

So the Fan turned on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN to catch two of the most exciting teams in the American League: Texas and Tampa Bay. To lead up to the event, the Fan watched the Baseball Tonight lead in, one of the most enjoyable such episodes of the week. The Baseball Tonight crew spent much of the broadcast introducing and then discussing the selections for the All Star Game. Topic covered. But then the SNB crew (minus Jon Miller for some reason) figured the topic wasn't covered enough and the exciting match up wasn't good enough so they spent much of the early part of the game discussing the picks. Fortunately, by the fourth inning or so, they ran out of breath and started talking about the game at hand.

Oh well, as long as they brought the topic up...again...let the Fan state unequivocally that the fans have proven over and over that they don't deserve the right to pick the All Star teams' starters. All Star voting is about as fair as the voting for the American Idol. Any time you can pack a ballot, any time you can have teams with high attendance and interest dominate the selections, you have a problem. Let's look at the starters in the American League.

• Catcher: Joe Mauer. Okay, this is the right pick.
• First base: Mark Teixeira. Teixeira has been everything the Yankees hoped, but Justin Morneau is having the best year of all the AL first basement. And it's not even close.
• Second base: Dustin Pedroia. A typical example of ballot stuffing. The only correct starter here is Aaron Hill of Toronto. Look at the numbers. Again, it's not even close.
• Shortstop: Derek Jeter. If Bartlett of the Bay Rays hadn't missed so much time, he would be the pick, but Jeter is the right pick.
• Third base: Evan Longoria: No argument with that pick.
• OF: Ichiro Suzuki. He is hitting .370, but if you look at the big picture and including slugging and OPS, Crawford is a better pick.
• OF: Jason Bay: Well, okay. If you like RBI as the most important stat, okay.
• OF: Josh Hamilton. What!? He hasn't even played all year. This is a glaring, idiotic example of what happens when the fans pick. Torii Hunter should be the starting center fielder.

Now the National League.

• Catcher: Yadier Molina. The National League catchers are currently pretty pathetic. Molina is the best of the bad with a .727 OPS.
• First base: Albert Pujols. Well duh.
• Second base: Chase Utley. The correct choice.
• Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez. Thank goodness. Rollins was leading for a while.
• Third base: David Wright. Pablo Sandoval is having the better year.
• OF: Carlos Beltran. He's been on the DL. Will be for another month. Come on! Should have been Brad Hawpe.
• OF: Raul Ibanez. See above. Should be Justin Upton.
• OF: Ryan Braun. Yay! They got one out of three correct.

We won't even get to the rest of the rosters or the pitchers. That's another kettle of fish. The point is that the fans, bless their hearts, don't get it right. Here's a good thought. Why not put a bunch of folks from Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, THT and baseball-reference.com together on a panel and have them pick the best 33 players in each league? Don't even talk to the Fan about having the players or the writers or the managers make the picks. The Fan will politely point you to the Gold Glove awards for how well that works.

Whatever would work should be what is used. The Fan vote doesn't work.

Game Picks - Monday: July 6, 2009

Sunday was a good day for this picker. Didn't expect Randy Johnson's shoulder to fall off. Should have known the Reds wouldn't sweep the Cardinals. Should have seen the Orioles' bullpen falling apart. But over all, can't be too unhappy about the results.

Here are Monday's picks in a short schedule:

• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Romero is really good. Pettitte is really average.
• The Braves over the Cubs: This picker always goes with Jurrjens.
• The Reds over the Phillies: Cueto has the stuff to stuff the Phillies...IF he throws strikes.
• The Tigers over the Royals: See Joe Posnanski's blog to understand how Meche has been abused by his manager.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: Smoltz wins his first for the Red Sox.
• The Astros over the Pirates: The Astros are playing well. The Pirates are not.
• The Rockies over the Nationals: The Marquis! Can't pick against him.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Garland pitches for the scouts.
• The Rangers over the Angels: This Rangers team is growing on this writer big time.
• The Orioles over the Mariners: The Orioles jump all over Washburn.
• The Giants over the Marlins: Cain over Sean West. Have watched West pitch a few times now and the guy has talent, but he doesn't have grit.

Have a good week, everyone!

Yesterday: 10=5
Week: 10-5
Month: 31-23

Game Picks - Sunday: July 5, 2009

The weather here in Florida was gorgeous for July 4th and we didn't even get our normal afternoon rain. Hope you all had a nice day and got a chance to do something fun. As for the picks, there was a mixed back and the day ended slightly in the red. But in the grand scheme of things, there are worse things in life.

Another full slate of holiday weekend games today and here are the picks:

• The Indians over the Athletics: The Fan has gotten this pick wrong all weekend. So either the Indians finish the sweep or finish off this picker. One or the other.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Chamberlain should pick off Cecil.
• The Pirates over the Marlins: Ohlendorf has confounded this picker and beat some really good pitchers in his last two starts. Guess we'll have to pick him over Nolasco.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Carpenter should beat Arroyo.
• The Phillies over the Mets: Santana has looked human the last two weeks. And this picker can't seem to get a Met pick correctly.
• The Braves over the Nationals: Derek Lowe has been a mystery lately, but he should beat Olsen.
• The Red Sox over the Mariners: Lester should be a lock over Morrow.
• The Twins over the Tigers: The Twins have hung tough against the Tigers and need this game badly to start making a move.
• The Royals over the White Sox: Oh what the heck, let's give a pick to Bannister and the Royals.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: Ted Lilly stops the bleeding.
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: Dan Haran has been the best pitcher in the National League this side of Lincecum.
• The Orioles over the Angels: Just because the Fan wants it to be so.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Billingsley should win this game.
• The Giants over the Astros: The Giants are starting to hit. If that continues, they are scary.
• The Rangers over the Bay Rays: Great match up of Feldman and Garza. Giving the edge to Feldman at home.

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 46-38
Month: 28-26