Game Picks - Saturday: July 3, 2010

Friday wasn't a banner day for picking but after four straight losing days, at least it was over .500. Wow! This is a tough stretch. The Blue Jays showed some spunk and spanked the Yankees' secondary relievers in extra innings. Picking the Cubs was really stupid. Both Florida team picks were wrong. The White Sox got a big win against the Rangers. The Angels lost (another Game of the Day pick down the drain) and the Indians' pick was stupid. On the the other hand, the Rockies and Diamondback picks were sweet.

Saturday should be fun with a full slate of games. Let's see if the Fan can navigate this one more successfully:

• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Romero is good, but Pettitte rises to the occassion.
• The Braves over the Marlins: Hanson has struggled, but the Braves should get to Sanchez.
• The Nationals over the Mets: Have to go with Strasburg over Dickey.
• The Twins over the Bay Rays: Liriano should be better than Wade Davis. The Twins are at home.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: How can you not pick Carpenter over Parra?
• The Pirates over the Phillies: Yeah, the Fan knows. But the Pirates shut the weakened Phillies out yesterday.
• The Indians over the Athletics: Okay. Here's the deal. The A's are a lousy road team. The Indians are at home. Westbrook isn't that bad a pitcher and the A's are starting Mortensen making his debut.
• The Tigers over the Mariners: The Tigers need to start winning when Verlander pitches if they want a chance.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Still winning despite the injuries shows how good the Boston organization really is.
• The White Sox over the Rangers: Danks has been much better of late. Hunter hasn't lost since he came of the DL. He's due.
• The Rockies over the Giants: Ubaldo! over Zito.
• The Padres over the Astros: Both are pitching their worst pitchers (Correia and Norris). But the Padres' worst pitcher is better than the Astros' worst pitcher.
• The Angels over the Royals: Can you believe Chen has the exact same ERA as Santana? Not after this game.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Kershaw stems Kirk Gibson fever.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Reds over the Cubs: Not making this mistake again. Cueto should take care of the moribund Cubs. Piniella and Hendry should have been gone before the Arizona duo.

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 25-31 only a big day today can salvage this
Month: 12-14
Season: 671-511
Games of the Day: 39-36 three wrong in a row!

Florida Baseball

One of the benefits of being in south Florida is being able to watch Comcast and both teams from Florida. The Tampa Bay Rays are on Channel 35 and the Marlins are on Channel 37. Both teams are bursting with young talent and the promise of the future. The Rays have had a fine season but fell behind both the Red Sox and the Yankees. The Marlins changed managers and despite so many fine players, can't seem to get anything to go right. Friday night was tough to watch.

The Marlins started one of the best pitchers in baseball in Josh Johnson. The guy has it all. He throws a 96 to 98 MPH fastball, a change up and a nasty breaking pitch. He had it all going against the Braves. At one point, the Fan counted six broken bats in the first three innings. But despite how good he pitched, he had a man on third in three of his first five innings. The first two times, his superior pitching got him out of it. The last time cost him his only run, but it shouldn't have.

The last time, he faced Prado and battled. Prado is a terrific hitter and back and forth it went. Then Johnson threw his best pitch of the night with two strikes. It was a 97 MPH heater on the inside corner at the knees. The pitch tracker showed the entire ball in the strike zone, but the ump never raised his right arm. Prado got another chance and hit a hanging slider into left to score the run. It was the only run the Braves would get.

But that blown call did one more thing. The Braves are good at making the pitcher work and Johnson had thrown a lot of pitches. The blown strike call caused him to face two extra batters and throw ten extra pitches. That let the game get deeper into the Marlins' bullpen.

The Braves scratched another run and had Billy Wagner in the ninth and the great closer gave a one out homer to Gaby Sanchez, who has taken his opening season by storm. It then became a game of relievers and the game pushed into the eleventh. In the top of that inning, the Marlins started a rally off of phenom reliever, Venters. With a man on third, the Marlins attempted a squeeze play but the batter missed the pitch. Wes Helms, the speed challenged third baseman, was a dead duck between third and home. The catcher thew it toward third. Helms headed toward home. Chipper Jones threw it to Venters who had Helms dead. But Venters totally whiffed the throw. He looked like a little leaguer. Helms scored.

The bottom of the 11th was in the hands of the closer, Nunez. Once again, this game showed how critical a closer can be. Nunez walked the first batter (McCann) on four pitches. Troy Glaus hit a double. Omar Infante hit a single. Ball game.

The game really showed what ails the Marlins. They don't handle close games well. They are 8-16 in one run games. When their starter does well, they don't hit. When they hit, the starter doesn't do well. When the game is on the line, they can't put it away. They have a nice team and are fun to watch. They just can't get over the hump.

Early this season, the Bay Rays were the scoring machine of the majors. But they have scored two runs or fewer in 12 of their last 18 games. Watching them regularly the last two weeks, they always seem to get two quick outs and then get some base runners and can't get the big hit to score the run. David Price was amazing again tonight. He gave up two runs in a complete game, eight-inning gem. he had one bad inning. But ten men left on base over the course of the game led to a 2-1 loss.

The Rays are obviously going through a tough stretch, but you can't help but like this team. The Fan especially likes when Brignac plays short and Sean Rodriguez plays second. Brignac is an amazing fielder and plays with a lot of fire. Bartlett was fantastic at the plate last year, but isn't anywhere near that performance this year. The question is if Brignac can hit consistently. Unfortunately, his minor league record doesn't figure him better than a replacement level batter.

After two weeks of daily viewing, the Fan has really come to appreciate Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, David Price, Jeff Niemann, Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Andy Sonnanstine and John Jaso. B. J. Upton and Carlos Pena are a problem. But this team is stacked with talent from end to end. Some times Joe Maddon, who is one of the smartest men in baseball, over thinks things and ends up making weird mistakes. But this is a team that will fight right down to the wire. All they have to do is find a way to end up in at least second place in the AL East

Diamondbacks Clean House

In what was a total shock, the Arizona Diamondbacks fired general manager, Josh Byrnes, and manager, A. J. Hinch, were fired yesterday. The pair paid the price of an awful half a season where many picked the team to be in contention. Instead the team is locked in last place for the second straight season in the NL West.

Byrnes has been considered a bit of a wunderkind and was signed to a big extension a few years ago. His personnel decisions were once touted as he brought in young players like Stephen Drew and Upton. But those young players have stalled in becoming the big stars their talent predicted them to be and both, along with Mark Reynolds, are in the top 25 in the league in strikeouts. Reynolds and Upton are one and two on that list.

Byrnes has to take responsibility for a bullpen that has failed in epic proportions and as the Fan mentioned in his post last night, the D-Backs are near the bottom of the 30 team list in OPS+, ERA+ and fielding efficiency. The Fan had mentioned earlier in the season that general managers weren't facing the same kinds of scrutiny for failure that managers were. This is one case were the GM was seen as part of the problem.

But you know, things happen and Byrnes will find another job. He seems to be a bright guy and his personnel decisions just didn't work out...yet. A. J. Hinch on the other hand admitted just a short while ago that, "This group hasn't responded that well to me." Gosh, why don't you just run the white flag up there?

Hinch's record with the D-Backs of 89-123 over parts of two seasons indicate that he was correct. The Diamondbacks have some talent but that talent hasn't been able to burst through. It seemed obvious that Hinch wasn't capable of pulling that kind of performance out of his players.

So now Kirk Gibson is in charge, at least for now. And now the Bobby Valentines of the world have another team to consider. It's too bad. Hinch seemed like a nice guy and the Fan was appreciative that he gave Edwin Jackson that opportunity for the no-hitter last week despite the pitch count. Unfortunately, the bottom line isn't pretty and somebody had to pay the price.

Game Picks - Friday: July 2, 2010

Holy cow! This picker is certainly in a bad stretch with a fourth sub-.500 day. The week is far below the break even point and the month of July is off to a negative start. The Game of the Day feature lost for the second straight day. Ugh! With the axe falling all over baseball (more on that in the next post), the Fan could be next!

[[shiver]] With much trepidation, here are Friday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have fallen all the way back to .500. It's sad that for the second season in a row, they gave fans hope and then fell on hard times.
• The Cubs over the Reds: Simply like Dempster over Arroyo at this point in the season.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: Ohlendorf has pitched well of late. Giving him the nod over Moyer and the depleted Phils.
• The Mets over the Nationals: Hard to remember that the Nats once vied for first place. Now they again have a slight chance for the top draft pick for the third straight year.
• The Indians over the Athletics: The Indians have won five in a row and have more offense than the A's.
• The Tigers over the Mariners: The Tigers are almost unbeatable at home and the Mariners are terrible on the road. That overcomes a Fister match up with Scherzer.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: This pick isn't the Fan's first instinct. The O's could get to Wakefield and Bergesen could have a big game against the depleted Red Sox. But sanity won.
• The Marlins over the Braves: Pick based solely on the arm of Josh Johnson.
• The Rangers over the White Sox: Like Lewis over Garcia and the Rangers' offense over the White Sox.
• The Rockies over the Giants: Lincecum hasn't been a lock this season. Chacin is a good-looking young pitcher. The Rockies are home and the hotter team.
• The Bay Rays over the Twins: Last night's thrilling win might propel the young Bay Rays back in the race. Plus Price is pitching.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Narveson was great last time out, but golly, the Cards need to start winning some time.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: Kirk Gibson wins his first game as manager.
• The Padres over the Astros: Latos versus Oswalt in a good one. Latos is like a young Oswalt.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Angels over the Royals: Similar and inconsistent starters but the Angels are at home.

Yesterday: 4-7
Week: 29-38 man oh man
Month: 4-7
Season: 663-504
Games of the Day: 39-35

Suddenly a Contest for the Worst Record in Baseball

With the Baltimore Orioles winning six out of their last ten games, the clear cut favorite for finishing 2010 with baseball's worst record has gotten a lot more interesting. With the top draft pick at stake in the next draft, it's time to guage the favorites...or least favorites if you will.

Current candidates:

• Baltimore Orioles - 24 wins
• Cleveland Indians - 31 wins
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 27 wins
• Houston Astros - 31 wins
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 31 wins

The Orioles: As mentioned, the Orioles were on a mini-roll before getting buzz sawed by the A's on Wednesday night. The Orioles are currently 26th out of 30 in OPS+ and 27th in runs scored. They are 26th in the league in ERA+. They are 24th in the league in defensive efficiency. But they are 13th in fielding percentage. Roster considerations. Luke Scott, the regular DH and the Orioles' most productive hitter went on the DL with a bad leg. Josh Bell was brought up from the minors to play third moving Tejada (a defensive liability) to DH. Bell has some pop but is iffy when it comes to major league productivity. A big question is whether the team will trade some of their veterans like Millwood and Wiggington. Millwood seems more likely but Wiggington would be more sought after. The team will certainly think twice about trade either as they have a young team with few established players to show them the way. Garrett Atkins was recently let go.

The Pirates: The Pirates have 27 losses and have lost seven of their last ten. But they have won their last two. The team is 23rd in fielding percentage and 27th in defensive efficiency. They are 29th in OPS+ and last in the league in runs scored. The Pirates are also in last place among all 30 teams in ERA+. Roster considerations: The Pirates traded away anyone of value last year and have little left in the way of veterans other teams would want. They have recently called up Pedro Alvarez who is off to a slow start with lots of strikeouts. Another prospect, Jose Tabata, has also started slowly though he has shown patience at the plate. Pitching prospect, Brad Lincoln hasn't been impressive.

The Indians: The Indians are 27th in the league in ERA+ and 19th in OPS+ and 25th in the league in defensive efficiency. The Indians have won five in a row but had lost five in a row before that. Roster considerations: The Indians traded away Russell Branyon with the intention of giving Matt LaPorta a full shot to see what he can do. He hit a three run homer on Thursday night. Carlos Santana seems to be the real deal and is a star catcher in the making. Chances are that Kerry Wood will be traded.

Houston Astros: The Astros have played .500 ball of late but still only have 31 wins for the season. The Astros are last in all of baseball in defensive efficiency. They are also dead last in OPS+. And to complete the trifecta, they are 25th in ERA+. Roster considerations: Unlike all the other teams mentioned so far, there is not much help available in the minors. Chris Johnson is playing now and might be effective. Oswalt and Berkman are solid bets to be traded. If they are, then what will this team have left besides Wandy Rodriguez?

Arizona Diamondbacks: The D-backs are the surprise member of this list. Not much has gone right for this team. They have four regulars in their line up who are in the top 25 in the majors in strikeouts. They are 27th in the league in ERA+. Despite much expectation, they are 20th in the league in OPS+. They are also 26th in the league in defensive efficiency. Roster considerations: Connor Jackson was traded away. Rusty Ryal is not much of a better option. Enright gave the team a good start the other night but walked four in five innings of work. Dontrelle Willis has been a drag on the team and will be released soon it seems.

Conclusion: The Pirates are completely torn down and the team is totally in the hands of youngsters. There is some talent there. They play in a weak division. The Orioles play in the toughest division in baseball but are playing better. The Diamondbacks can hope that the core of Reynolds, Upton and Drew do much better in the second half. The Indians have a legitimate star in Choo and a starting rotation that can keep them in the game. The Astros' fortunes seem to fall on whether Oswalt and Berkman get traded or not. They have the worst counting stats in baseball. Favorites: The Orioles because of their division, the Astros because of their talent.

Others to watch: Royals and Mariners.

Still Not Buying the Reds

It is now July 1, 2010 and miracle of all miracles, the Reds are in first place in the NL Central and the Padres are in first in the NL West. While the Padres may have enough pitching to overcome flawed hitting and have a legitimate shot at the flawed NL West, the Reds just don't seem to have the horses to win the NL Central.

The Cardinals have been stumbling along. Pujols has struck out more this year and doesn't always look QUITE as dominant as ever. Holliday has awakened from his slumber. The Cards are having trouble with their fourth and fifth starters and the bullpen is shaky. But it's hard to believe that Tony LaRussa won't figure out enough magic buttons to get the job done when it is all said and done.

The Reds have out played their run differential by a couple of games. Joey Votto is a legitimate superstar having an outstanding season. Scott Rolen has shaken off some cobwebs and is a stud again and is a leader of much renown. Both of their catchers are hitting the cover off the ball. Brandon Phillips is a great second baseman. Jay Bruce is finally living up to his potential and Jonny Gomes is hitting well. They only have two holes in their line up. Orlando Cabrera is having a brutal year at the plate with a 66 OPS+ and Drew Stubbs strikes out too much and has an 86 OPS+. So, overall, the line up is probably going to be okay.

This Fan just doesn't believe in the Reds' starting rotation or their bullpen. Basically stated, the Reds just don't have enough pitching to maintain their position in the standings. The Reds ERA and homers allowed are 12th in a league of 16 teams. Only three teams in the NL have struck out less batters than the Reds. Only five teams have given up more walks and hits.

Let's look at the starting rotation. Cueto should be the ace. He has the best stuff and sure enough, he has the lowest WHIP in the rotation and the highest amount of strikeouts. But with his stuff, he really should be more consistent and his K/BB ratio should be higher than 2.55/1. But he has improved of late and is 8-2 despite a 3.74 ERA. He keeps the ball in the ballpark, which is always good. After Cueto though, it gets iffy.

Aaron Harang has looked better of late. But he gives up a lot of homers and his ERA is over 5. His WHIP of 1.455 is not great. He is a battler and a fiery competitor, but he's a question mark whenever he pitches. The one good thing is that he leads all Reds' starters in K/BB ratio. Arroyo is a lot like Harang. He hangs in there because he is a warrior but he performs better than his stuff and every game produces the possibility that he is going to get crushed. He has a 1.33 K/BB ratio and he only strikes out 4.4 batters per nine innings. His WHIP is much lower now than it will be by the end of the season.

Mike Leake has been a great story. He jumped right from college to the majors without any minor league experience. He won his first five decisions. But he hasn't won in a couple of weeks and there are a couple of problems here. First, his BABIP indicates that he's been a bit lucky and those hits should drop in a bit more. Second, his pitch count for the season and for each start must be limited and that means that a shaky bullpen has to be relied upon early in each of his starts. The Fan doesn't think Leake will regress much, but he will some and the Reds have to be careful of his innings.

The fifth starter has been a problem for the Reds much like it has been for a lot of teams. Homer Bailey has been out. LeCure hasn't worked out and now they will try another prospect (Wood). Fortunately for the Reds, the Cardinals have just as big a problem with the fifth starter.

The next big problem for the Reds is their bullpen. Other than the amazing Arthur Rhodes (who finally had a bad night the other night), there is not a whole lot to write home about. Masset has a big arm but he walks 4.3 batters per nine innings and has given up more hits than innings pitched. His ERA is near 6. The closer, Francisco Cordero, also walks too many and has a WHIP right near 1.5, which is way too high. Danny Herrera is replacement level at best. Logan Ondrusek has been brutal. Micah Owings (alas) is much more effective as a pinch hitter than he is as a long reliever.

The Fan also doesn't believe in Dusty Baker. If you were to compare him heads up to LaRussa, who would you choose? The Cards have the experience, the manager, two great starters and one good one and the best player in the world. The Reds simply don't have enough pitching to stay where they are.

Fan's Appearance on Baseball Digest Live

The Fan thoroughly enjoyed his visit to Baseball Digest Live yesterday. The host could not have been more gracious and the Fan thinks he held his own. It appears that the Fan gave you a dead link yesterday (should have tested it). But the recording of the show can be found here. The Fan appears about half way through the show.

Game Picks - Thursday: July 1, 2010

The month of June ended ugly as this picker had a third straight day in the red. Even the Game of the Day, which had been on a great roll, fell to earth yesterday. This week has not been a good one. It was a surprise that the Reds beat the Phillies again while the Cardinals lost again. The Orioles and Indians both won. Whuh? The Royals won. The Yankees lost. The Dodgers won. And the Fan blew it on all of them.

Ah well. That's the life of a baseball Fan. You honestly never know what is going to happen. Thursday is the first game of July (happy Birthday to the wonderful lady that was the Fan's first wife) and it's time to start the month off on a good foot:

• The Blue Jays over the Indians: The Jays' bats have gone silent. But Marcum has been so good, it's hard not to go with him.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: The Yankees have been smoked by Lee and King Felix. Now it's time for them to have a big game and for Sabathia to get the easy victory.
• The Cubs over the Reds: Really? Yeah, really. Silva steals a victory over Wood, making his debut fresh from the minors.
• The Phillies over the Pirates: McCutchen pitches for the Pirates fresh off the DL. He won't be as bad as early in the year, but the Pirates won't score against Hamels.
• The Mets over the Nationals: Interesting match up of Santana versus Livan. Going with Santana.
• The Athletics over the Orioles: Cahill has been the A's best pitcher.
• The Bay Rays over the Twins: The Bay Rays had a big win over the Red Sox and Niemann has been really good lately.
• The Brewers over the Cardinals: Hawksworth hasn't been effective for the Cardinals. Wolf has a better chance to win.
• The Giants over the Rockies: Cook hasn't been good and the game will mark the return of Bumgarner.
• The Rangers over the Angels: Wilson over Weaver. The Rangers have played the Angels really well this season.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Padres over the Astros: Garland should be solid as the Padres get to Brian Moehler.

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 25-31
Last Month: 222-164
Season: 659-497
Games of the Day: 39-34

David Ortiz Clobbering Mistakes

The Fan has watched several games involving David Ortiz over the course of the season and the pattern always seems the same. The pitcher gets two quick strikes on Ortiz and the big man doesn't even come close to hitting the pitches. But then the pitcher can't put him away. Do the pitchers' knees suddenly get weak? Do they believe that the first two strikes were flukes? It's hard to understand.

Last night was typical. Shields is pitching for the Bay Rays. The sequence went like this:

First pitch: Fastball in - Swing and miss.
Second pitch: Curve ball in - Swing and miss.
Third pitch: Fastball outside - Ball one
Fourth Pitch: Curve ball inside - Almost hits Ortiz. Ball two.
Fifth pitch: Fastball outside - Ball three.
Sixth pitch: Curve on inner half - Ortiz just missed a homer and flied out to deep right.

Later on, the pattern repeated itself except this time Ortiz hit a three run homer and the game was for all intent and purposes, over. It seems to this Fan that the pattern has been consistent ever since Ortiz got hot. But how do you prove it?

Well, the Fan went to www.baseball-reference.com one of the most wonderful places on earth and looked at Big Papi's splits for this season and sure enough, Ortiz has put more balls in play on a 3-2 count than on any other count. And it isn't even close. 62 plate appearances have come from a 3-2 count for Ortiz. The second highest is 36 with a 2-2 count. Ortiz has a .968 OPS on those 62 plate appearances.

Ortiz, like most hitters, does the most of his damage when he is ahead in the count. And also like most batters, he does little damage when his plate appearance results from an 0-2 count but that precisely is where pitchers are failing. Only 9 of Papi's plate appearances have occurred on an 0-2 count with only one feeble little single. Compare that to the 62 with a full count.

The numbers seem to match the observations. Ortiz is very willing to let the pitcher try to get cute on an 0-2 count and wait for a mistake. The pitchers usually comply. If the Fan was a pitching coach, the thing the Fan would tell his pitchers would be to put the guy away when you get two strikes on him and never mind futzing around.

Game Picks - Wednesday: June 30, 2010

Uh oh! This picker is suddenly on a losing streak with negative results for two days in a row. The week is under too. Fortunately, the month is almost over, so the Fan can't screw that up, but still, this is a bit distressing. Remarkably, the Game of the Day was correct again for the eighth straight day. That feature is as far over .500 as it has ever been. So which would the Fan rather have: a good day of picking and a bad Game of the Day or vice versa? Probably the former.

The Fan really needs Wednesday to turn things around or this week will go to hell in a hand basket:

• The Phillies over the Reds: The day starts off with what should be a sure pick with Halladay getting the start against Harang.
• The Twins over the Tigers: Slowey needs to keep the ball in the park to win, but the Twins should score against Oliver.
• The Astros over the Brewers: Wandy Rodriguez seemed to figure some things out his last outing. That should be enough to tilt this one.
• The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: Horrible game to pick as Suppon goes against some kid making his debut (Enright).
• The Cubs over the Pirates: Gorzelanny versus Lincoln. Gorzelanny hasn't started in a while and Lincoln hasn't impressed since he was called up. Ugh.
• The Rockies over the Padres: Look out NL West. Here come the Rockies.
• The Mets over the Marlins: The Marlins have taken the first two, but Pelfrey has been so good this year.
• The Athletics over the Orioles: Giving the nod to Ben Sheets over Kevin Millwood. Millwood has won two straight though...
• The Mariners over the Yankees: King Felix over Vazquez. It's a good thing the Mariners won't make the playoffs because they could give a team like the Yankees fits.
• The Blue Jays over the Indians: Litsch over Laffey although neither seems like a smart pick.
• The Braves over the Nationals: Hate to pick a guy just coming off the DL like Jurrjens, but the option is to pick Martin who has pitched well but the Nats don't score for him.
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: Think Garza will come up big and Dice-K will not.
• The White Sox over the Royals: Peavy is on a serious roll with 21 scoreless innings. Greinke is a factor though.
• The Rangers over the Angels: Kazmir versus some kid named Beltre making his debut. Normally the debut would never be picked, but Kazmir has given up nearly six runs a game this year.

And the Game of the Day

• The Giants over the Dodgers: Manny is hurt again. Plus, will take Sanchez over Padilla.

Yesterday: 6-9 oof
Week: 18-23 ouch
Month: 215-156
Season: 652-488
Games of the Day: 39-33

The Marlins Find Their Manager - For Now

In a surprise move, the Florida Marlins' owner, Jeffrey Loria, announced that Edwin Rodriguez, who made history as the first manager from Puerto Rico, would manage the team through the end of the season. The Marlins had been actively pursuing Bobby Valentine since Fredi Gonzalez was fired last week. Indications are that negotiations with Valentine bogged down and then dissolved.

Loria, who indicated that he wanted to quickly turn the season around last week when Gonzalez was fired, apparently learned that a quick fix with a big name wasn't going to be as easy as it sounded. One can only speculate that either Valentine wanted more money, more control or more autonomy than Loria was going to give him. Valentine, known as a disciplinarian and strategist, would have been a nice choice to lead a young and sometimes undisciplined team. But that's not going to happen. So where does this leave the Marlins?

Guys like Valentine and Buck Showalter, both now working as analysts on ESPN's Baseball Tonight, will only take a managerial position if they get to run the show. They are both immensely experienced with big reputations who also happen to have good and cushy jobs. It would take a heck of a sweet deal to pry them into the right situation. The Fan can imagine that with a new stadium in their near future, Loria would have loved to go into that era of the team's history with a big name manager. But Loria either doesn't have the money to spend right now or doesn't like to spend it.

Which works out perfectly with a guy like Edwin Rodriguez. The Fan doesn't know, but can imagine that Rodriguez is still making whatever his salary was as a minor league manager. That would certainly work with Loria's MO. It looks like Loria has a cheap option for the rest of the 2010 season. But who is Edwin Rodriguez?

We know he was born in Puerto Rico as his history making position has been clear news and rightly so. He is 50 years old and he was once a prospect in the Yankees' organization. He did get cups of coffee in three separate seasons, the first one (1982) for the Yankees and the final two with the Padres (1983. 1985). He played in the minors until 1987 and then he retired.

After his retirement, Rodriguez scouted for the Twins for seven years. He started managing in the low minors in 2005 and rose through the ranks in the Marlins' system. He was given the reins of the Marlins' Triple A affiliate in December of 2008. Without doubt, he must have been part of some of the minor league careers of several of the young players on the Marlins.

During the Marlins game on local Florida television, they showed the scene in the dugout when Loria told his team about his decision to keep Rodriguez in the dugout for the rest of the season. It was quite touching to see the players' reactions as there was cheering and hugs all around. That's a good thing. The Marlins' broadcasters mentioned that several players told them that Martinez has already shown them that he is a great communicator and wants to learn from them as much as he wants his players to learn from him. That's also a good thing.

And the Marlins have beat the Mets two straight. Remarkably and fittingly, the series was scheduled long before to take place in Puerto Rico. How's that for a fairy tale story? Who knows, perhaps the Marlins have found a diamond in the rough in their new manager. The big question is on how the players will react when, young as they are, they screw up or act badly and Rodriguez has to make a stand. Will he hold the respect of his players? Time will tell.

But no matter how good Rodriguez might be, the facts still remain that the Marlins are a starter and a reliever short and play lousy defense. They will make dumb, young mistakes no matter who is managing. They have a lot of young talent but besides Helms, have little veteran stability. Rodriguez may add a win or three if he does a really good job. But it seems highly unlikely that he will take the Marlins as they are currently constructed much higher in the standings than Fredi Gonzalez would have. It would be a cool story if he did though.

Appearing on Baseball Digest Live

A quick programming note to let you all know that the Fan will be "appearing" on Baseball Digest Live co-hosted by Jay Ferraro. If you'd like to listen in, click this link.

The Twins Need Lee...or Somebody

The Twins are a good team. They have the kind of experience and smarts to again win their division...but if they do so as they stand now, it will be by the skin of their teeth. And that's the way the Twins have won the division so many times in the past decade. But one of these years, they will not be so lucky and just being good enough will not be...well...good enough. The Tigers have some strength and the White Sox are always a wild card. But even if the Twins get it done and win the division, as they sit now as a team, they will still lose in the playoffs and will not get to the World Series.

Their problem really is their starting rotation. They have two good starters, Pavano and Liriano. Pavano has been great and has a 3.53/1 strikeout to walk ratio despite only striking out five batters per nine innings. In other words, he doesn't allow cheap base runners. That can be said of the entire Twins rotation except for Nick Blackburn. They don't walk anybody. But only Liriano has the stuff to make use of that special talent. His 9.7 K/9 ratio is fantastic as is his 4 to 1 ratio of strikeouts to walks. Despite his loss to the Tigers when most of the runs scored in the first inning last night, he's probably their best pitcher. Slowey has his moments and keeps you in the game. The same can be said for Baker. But Slowey and Baker both have trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark and both have 1.4 homers for every nine innings they pitch. They are good, but not great. Blackburn has simply been awful and that is the rub.

If you could bring in Lee for the stretch or another big time starter, that would give the Twins the depth in the rotation they need and also give them three good options for every playoff game. If they don't make such a move, it's hard to see this year being much different than any other year IF they can squeak by and win the division.

Strasburg Struggles?

Yeah, that was one of the headlines on Tuesday morning: "Strasburg Struggles." Except "Struggles" wasn't capitalized because nobody capitalizes headings anymore. But anyway, it's got to be tough to be a world class talent. You can't possibly live up to everyone's expectations and you can't escape even the slightest pimple. Did Strasburg struggle? Heck no. He did lose though thanks to terrible defense, poor relief pitching and no run support.

Strasburg's final line reads, 6.1 innings, six hits, three earned runs, two walks and seven strikeouts. Sounds like a solid outing to this Fan. But it was an even better outing than that sounds. Riggelman made a big mistake by not pinch hitting for Strasburg in the top of the seventh. He had a runner on third and he sent Strasburg up to hit. Strasburg had not given up a run to that point and the Nats hadn't scored either. How different would the news agencies read if Riggelman had done the right thing? Perhaps a pinch hitter could have gotten the run in and Strasburg would have been in line for the win. Or he would have had a no decision with no runs allowed.

But Srasburg hit or didn't and the inning was over. The big kid then promptly gave up two base hits to start the bottom of the seventh. He then walked a batter. But then he induced a perfect double-play ball to short and one run would have scored, but he could have gotten out of the inning without a lot of damage. But the shortstop booted it. It was a perfect double play ball! Geez.

That indubitably rattled the young pitcher and he gave up a sac fly (the bases were still loaded) and the defense let him down again. Nyger Morgan, doing his best B. J. Upton impression, threw to third instead of second and missed the cut off man on the deep fly to center. Instead of first and third with the double play still available, it was second and third. Strasburg was taken out and Burnett was brought it. Burnett hasn't been a good name for pitchers this week. This one gave up two straight hits. Everyone that Strasburg had on base scored and that was that.

And of course, the headlines read that Strasburg struggled. He didn't. He was let down by his manager, his shortstop, his offense and his centerfielder. The guy isn't perfect. But it looks like he sure has to be to get a win and to please everybody.

Game Picks - Tuesday: June 29, 2010

"Monday Monday...can't trust that day. Monday Monday...sometimes it just turns out that way..." It wasn't a good day for this picker. Not too many things went according to plan. Poor Strasburg can't get any defense or run support. It just didn't turn out the way this Fan expected it. But that's okay. Days like that keep you humble.

And there is always Tuesday to get back into the swing of things. Here's how the Fan sees it:

• The Marlins over the Mets: Puerto Rico is hot this time of year. Really hot. The Marlins can take it. The Mets, along with their Japanese starter, Takahashi, cannot.
• The Athletics over the Orioles: Matusz just looks all beaten down. Poor kid. Braden will win.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: Lee and Hughes will cancel each other out. The Yankees have the better offense and know Lee very well.
• The Blue Jays over the Indians: Morrow needs to come up big, but he's capable. Carmona has not looked good of late.
• The Reds over the Phillies: Can lightning strike twice? Leake's sinker versus Blanton's meatballs.
• The Braves over the Nationals: The Nats simply can't score these days.
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: The Bay Rays are reeling, but they should jump on Lackey while Shields holds down the depleted Red Sox.
• The Cubs over the Pirates: The Pirates keep beating the Cubs. Why? Who knows. Lilly should win though.
• The Brewers over the Astros: Gallardo should be better than Myers.
• The Tigers over the Twins: Galarraga should beat Blackburn. Too bad about Zumaya. Too many long outings.
• The Royals over the White Sox: Yeah, well, the Fan didn't think the Royals would win last night either.
• The Rockies over the Padres: Here come the Rockies. They are only five games back now. Hammel over LeBlanc.
• The Rangers over the Angels: Good match up of Feldman versus Pineiro. Think the Rangers will out score the Angels.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: Ely comes up big and the Dodgers get to Cain.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: Wainwright over Willis. If Willis has another start like last time, he could be done.

Yesterday: 4-7
Week: 12-14
Month: 209-147
Season: 646-479
Games of the Day: 38-33

Strikeouts Revisited

Everyone seems to be saying that this is the year of the pitcher. It is true that the major hitting stats like homers per game, league batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage are all down. Strikeouts are the highest in history. Many point to steroids or the lack of them as one of the answers. Maybe. Many are saying that it's because young pitchers are given less time in the minors and are coming to the big leagues faster and thus putting better arms up in the league. Maybe. But young arms also throw more walks and have less experience under pressure. Here is one more theory and it revisits a complaint this Fan has had about modern baseball. Perhaps the blind eye to allowing high strikeout rates is catching up to baseball.

Of course, Mark Reynolds is the lightning rod of the argument. Last year, Reynolds had a 123 OPS+, so it was deemed acceptable that he had 223 strikeouts, the most in history. His line for the year was: .260/.349/.543. The arguments state that if he cut down on his aggressiveness, his slugging would go down and thus his value. Frankly, the Fan finds that argument to be full of beans. And this isn't the first time the Fan has made this argument. Very few of Reynolds homers have come with two strikes or with him behind in the count, so how do you hurt his slugging percentage if he shortens up on two strike counts? But if you can cut 100 of his strikeouts and put the ball in play, with a .300 BABIP probability, you add thirty hits to his tally. Even if those are all singles, his average would jump to .311 and his on base percentage jumps to .399.

The argument has been presented many times that an out is an out. But put the ball in play and errors happen, hits happen and that's the side of the equation that seems to be missing. What we seem to be seeing this year is that the league is striking out more thus making the batters around the league less effective.

As a microcosm of what the Fan is talking about, let's just look at the top 25 strikeout guys in the league last year and this year. Last year, the top 25 strikeout guys struck out 24% of the time. But they had a .480 slugging percentage (collectively) and a .356 OBP. Thus, their collective OPS was .836. With those kinds of numbers, it sure seems worth it to let those 25 guys swing from their heels every time up. But that mentality has caught up to us. This year, those 25 guys have struck out 25% of the time (closer to 26% actually) and their collective OPS is down to .796. The top 25 strikeout guys have lost 14 points on their OBP and more importantly, 26 points on the slugging percentage. Consider if you will that these 25 guys have struck out 1933 times so far in 2010. If you could cut that down by a third, that would (with BABIP in play) add 191 hits. That's a lot of hits being thrown to the third baseman after the third strike.

Baseball mind trusts have been willing to swallow strikeouts because of the mistaken belief that an out is an out is an out. And since many of the high strikeout guys also get on base regularly and hit a lot of homers. the strikeouts are overlooked. But this year, those guys are getting on base less and hitting homers less. How many less? Last year, those top 25 strikeout guys hit a homer 4.3% of the time. This year, those top 25 strikeout guys have hit homers 3.8% of the time. The weight of those strikeouts are getting heavy.

Many of us have played organized ball of some sort, whether it be little league or pony league or something. All of us heard after we got two strikes on us to "choke up a little." Yeah, the strikeout is an out just like any other out. But when you put the ball in play, things can happen. Hits will fall in 30% of the time. Errors will occur. But hardly anybody ever talks about that side of the equation. It's time they did.

Whither the DH?

It's been this writer's observation that the Designated Hitter in the American League isn't what it used to be. It seemed like in the early days, sluggers like Orlando Cepeda, older guys with bad wheels would man the position. Vladamir Guerrero reminds the observer of Cepeda in those old days, but it seems the DH is less of a threat as in the old days. But do the numbers match the observation? What the Fan will attempt to do is to look at the numbers for this year, last year, five years ago and ten years ago. First let's look at teams:


Baltimore Orioles:
2010 - .859 OPS; 2009 - .777; 2005 - .640; 2000 - .729
Notes: 2010's OPS by DHs is higher than any of their other positions.


Boston Red Sox:
2010 - .856 OPS; 2009 - .777: 2005 - .980; 2000 - .904
Notes: Amazing how similar Luke Scott and company for Baltimore have been to David Ortiz and company the last two years.


Chicago White Sox:
2010 - .663 OPS; 2009 - .809; 2005 - .769; 2000 - .938
Notes: Frank Thomas was one of the best ever.


Cleveland Indians:
2010 - .764 OPS; 2009 - .772; 2005 - .946; 2000 - .907
Notes: Travis Hafner was such a force. Not now.


Detroit Tigers:
2010 - .761 OPS; 2009 - .704; 2005 - .805; 2000 - .811
Notes: 1990 was Dave Bergman. Ouch.


Kansas City Royals:
2010 - .855 OPS; 2009 - .655; 2005 - .790; 2000 - .784
Notes: Mike Sweeney was very good for a long time.


Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in California in the Western Part of the United States:
2010 - .639 OPS; 2009 - .817; 2005 - .694; 2000 - .830
Notes: Remember Brain Downing?


Minnesota Twins:
2010 - .774 OPS; 2009 - .829; 2005 - .710; 2000 - .728
Notes: David Ortiz in 2000!

New York Yankees:
2010 - .758 OPS; 2009 - .858; 2005 - .818; 2000 - .810
Notes: A month of Nick Johnson didn't help these year's numbers.

Oakland Athletics:
2010 - .651 OPS; 2009 - .770; 2005 - .665; 2000 - .745
Notes: DH is a money position and the A's haven't been able to spend the money.

Seattle Mariners:
2010 - .513 OPS; 2009 - .747; 2005 - .723; 2000 - 1.002
Notes: This year is soooo bad for the Mariners.

Tampa Bay Rays:
2010 - .656 OPS; 2009 - .741; 2005 - .809; 2000 - .821
Notes: 2000 = Jose Canseco. Imagine that.

Texas Rangers:
2010 - .868 OPS; 2009 - .802; 2005 - .753; 2000 - .803
Notes: Vlad is having a great season.

Toronto Blue Jays:
2010 - .610 OPS; 2009 - .849; 2005 - .778; 2000 - .867
Notes: Hard to figure out Lind this season. Remember Brad Fullmer?

Okay, we have our figures. Next, we'll list the four years surveyed and compare them to the league OPS (in parentheses)

2010 - .730 (.740)
2009 - .779 (.764)
2005 - .777 (.755)
2000 - .834 (.792)

The year 2000 was still in the offensive (read PED) era. That meant that older stars stayed in the game longer giving a larger pool of DHs. But even 2005 and 2009, the DH out-performed the league OPS. This season, the overall league OPS is down, but the DH is down further and is below the league OPS. Without going year by year in the history of the DH, the Fan would go out on a limb and state that hasn't happened often. It did happen in 1990 where the DH accumulated an OPS of .666 or something close to that and the league OPS was .715.

So what should be made of this? It is early in the season and there is a lot of season to go and things could change. But here are a couple of theories:

1. Older players aren't staying around or are not being signed by teams as free agents.
2. Teams are more cash strapped and are not spending for DH talent.
3. More teams are using young, home grown players as DHs
4. More teams are using the DH as a rest stop for regulars.

Whatever the cause, the DH isn't what it used to be and teams like Boston and Texas that have excellent DHs have a huge advantage. Where is Edgar Martinez when you need him?

Game Picks - Monday: June 28, 2010

A second straight day where the Yankees - Dodgers game turned the tide between a negative or a positive day of picking. And this picker never figured the Yankees would pull that game out of a hat. It was unbelievable the breaks they received and created as Mariano Rivera once again showed why he is so far above guys like Jonathan Broxton. And in more unbelievable news, the Game of the Day pick of the Red Sox over Lincecum and the Giants turned out brilliantly and that feature is the furthest over .500 as it has ever been.

Interleague is over (it was time) and Monday's schedule is quite robust with 22 of the 30 MLB teams in action. Monday's picks:

• The Marlins over the Mets: This series is in Puerto Rico right? The Marlins get to Dickey and their Puerto Rican interim manager gets a win.
• The Blue Jays over the Indians: The Indians traded Branyon. There isn't much left there to trouble Romero very much.
• The Nationals over the Braves: Strasburg! But will the Nats score any runs. What happened to their offense?
• The Reds over the Phillies: Cueto shuts down the big bats while the Reds get to Kendrick.
• The Cubs over the Pirates: The Pirates have beat up on the Cubs all year, but not this time as Wells gets the win.
• The Brewers over the Astros: Norris versus Parra. When you have no faith in either starter, go with the home team.
• The Twins over the Tigers: The Twins and Liriano start widening the gap again in the AL Central.
• The White Sox over the Royals: Buehrle can stay off the plate with the Royals and their swinging sluggers.
• The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: Haran versus Carpenter in a very good match up. Fun to watch this one. Have no idea who will win.
• The Giants over the Dodgers: The Dodgers are in bad shape as Billingsley comes back from the DL and Broxton won't be available.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Rockies over the Padres: Ubaldo!

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 8-7
Month: 205-140
Season: 642-472
Game of the Day: 37-33

Branyon On The Move Again

A new chapter was written in the amusing vagabond career of Russell Branyon as his current and original team, the Indians, traded him back to his last team, the Mariners, for a couple of semi-prospects. If you count repeats, this is Branyon's eleventh team switch and in that remarkable stretch, he's hit at least one homer in every single stop.

Branyon started this season the way he finished last season--on the disabled list for a bulging disc in his back. Yet he came back for the Indians this season and hit ten homers in 171 at bats. He'll give the Mariners a little more thunder in what is one of the weakest line ups in the league. But the question lingers as to why this move was necessary. It's obvious that the Mariners aren't going anywhere this season. The big speculation is to where they will trade Cliff Lee. So why give up two prospects (granted, they aren't great prospects) for a player they didn't want to resign after last season? It doesn't make sense.

And what did the Indians accomplish losing one of their only big bats when Branyon was only making $2 million this season? They must have liked one of the prospects to have this deal make any sense. Branyon is a first baseman in name only, but that is where he was playing. The Indians want to give LaPorta another chance to play every day now that their season has tanked. But LaPorta hasn't shown any inkling that he can consistently hit big league pitching.

But at least the move is amusing. Branyon has played for eight teams in his 13 seasons. Several of those teams have been multiples in the same season. He has a 114 lifetime OPS+ and has been over 120 in that category the last three years. He has no real glove but he's always swung the big stick. He strikes out a lot, but that's part of the deal. Branyon also has a .236 lifetime batting average, but has hit over .250 the last three years, so he's a consistent and known commodity.

But again, the big question is why now? Why at all? Oh well, at least it is news and provokes a smile of recognition.

Flagrant Fan Partners With Venuing

This Fan couldn't be more excited about a new venture and partnership with Venuing, a mobile app for all of you phone geeks out there. The New York City-based company has come up with a really neat application that allows fans following the game on the app to interact with other fans (and a moderator which is where the Fan comes in).

The app is currently available in beta version in the iTunes store and a newer, full-featured and faster version will be ready to go in mid-July.

This Fan is looking forward to working with Venuing and in interacting with other fans around the country.

Game Picks - Sunday: June 27, 2010

Thank goodness that A. J. Burnett was as bad as expected. That Dodgers pick put this picker over the top on what would have been a negative day. Of course, the Yankees may pay for giving the game away trying to get him straightened out. And they truly gave that game away. The best pick of the day was the Twins over Santana and the Mets. This picker was the only one on BallHype that correctly picked that one. Also the Game of the Day is on a five day roll. Call the Fan giddy.

Sunday is the beginning a new week and this Fan's favorite baseball day of the week. Here's how it looks:

• The Padres over the Marlins: Latos sweeps Florida and the Marlins continue to sleep walk.
• The Mets over the Twins: Baker has been just okay. Niese has been really good. Taking the Mets at home.
• The Reds over the Indians: The league is catching up to Talbot and Arroyo has been good.
• The Orioles over the Nationals: Thinking Guthrie has a good chance to give the Orioles a series win. How unusual would THAT be?
• The Tigers over the Braves: Is it just the Fan or is Verlander the older version of Hanson?
• The Blue Jays over the Phillies: Moyer is due for one of his patented belly flops. Cecil has been pretty good.
• The Diamondbacks over the Bay Rays: Isn't it time the Bay Rays replaced Wade Davis with Hellickson?
• The White Sox over the Cubs: Danks will win over Dempster. When will Piniella be fired? Nothing has been more due in ages.
• The Mariners over the Brewers: Vargas versus Narveson. Ick.
• The Cardinals over the Royals: Garcia needs to throw more strikes, but the Royals aren't exactly patient at the plate.
• The Rockies over the Angels: Chacin is a stud when he's on. Santana has been inconsistent.
• The Pirates over the Athletics: Need an upset on the card. Ohlendorf is much better than anyone thinks.
• The Rangers over the Astros: Hunter shoots an arrow into Oswalt.
• The Yankees over the Dodgers: Pettitte on television over Kershaw.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Red Sox over the Giants: The Red Sox will wait Lincecum out and make him throw strikes.

Yesterday: 8-7
Last Week: 53-37
Month: 197-133
Season: 634-465
Games of the Day: 36-33

Game Picks - Saturday: June 26, 2010

After a bumpy start in Florida, this picker has settled into a Palm Beach County rhythm and the correct picks are coming in bunches. Ten more last night compared to five incorrect. This picker took Greinke to beat St. Louis, the Red Sox to lose to Colorado and the Yankees to beat the Dodgers. All came out just as expected. There were a couple of clunkers. This Fan didn't expect Jackson to throw a no-hitter, thus preventing the worst bullpen in history to enter the game. Nor was the Astros victory over the Rangers expected. Seattle was simply a bad pick and the Orioles have suddenly shown some late inning life. But all in all, it was a good day.

Saturday continues the interleague fun:

• The Twins over the Mets: Right away we get a conundrum. We have Santana, who hasn't been Santana this year. We have Pavano, who continues to befuddle this picker. We have a hot Mets team and a cold Twins team. What to do? Go with the unexpected it seems.
• The Cardinals over the Royals: Another dangerous pick because the Cards are starting their fifth starter and the Royals' Davies is capable of pitching well once in a while.
• The Rangers over the Astros: The Astros are starting an unknown Banks making his first start. Wilson should win.
• The Nationals over the Orioles: Livan. The name itself sends the Fan into convulsions.
• The Phillies over the Blue Jays: Giving the Phillies the DH helps them like no other NL team. Low scoring game with Hamels versus Marcum, but Phillies have the edge being the home team that isn't.
• The Bay Rays over the Diamondbacks: As much as the Fan likes Ian Kennedy, Price will win this game.
• The Mariners over the Brewers: Think Fister will shut the Brewers down.
• The Tigers over the Braves: The Tigers' bats will come alive against Kawakami, the hard luck Braves' pitcher.
• The Marlins over the Padres: The moribund-looking Marlins should get a win with Josh Johnson pitching against Jon Garland, who has looked bad lately.
• The Cubs over the White Sox: The Fan must be crazy, but how can you pick against Silva? Plus, the Cubs will have at least enough emotion to pump to a win over Garcia.
• The Dodgers over the Yankees: Can't pick that #$#%#$ Burnett to win.
• The Red Sox over the Giants: Buchholz easily slides by the kid, Martinez.
• The Indians over the Reds: Masterson has a good day and LeCure for the Reds does not.
• The Rockies over the Angels: Cook is simply a better pitcher than Saunders.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Athletics over the Pirates: McCutchen gets the start for the Pirates. That's good news for Cahill and the A's.

Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 45-30
Month: 189-126
Season: 626-458
Games of the Day: 35-33

Eating Crow With the White Sox

When you write about baseball long enough, sooner or later, the writer is going to look like an idiot. Unfortunately, it happens a lot but that goes with the territory. Earlier in this season, the Fan counted David Ortiz among the dead. Big Papi has only hit a million homers since then. Today, the story lost in the Carlos Zambrano meltdown is that the Chicago White Sox won their tenth game in a row. Uhh...the Fan guesses his earlier statements that the White Sox were dead were a bit premature.

Think back ten games. Manager Ozzie Guillen and Kenny Williams were feuding. The team was six games under .500 and eight games out of first place. Now the White Sox are four games over .500 and with a Twins' loss (and the Tigers are losing), the White Sox are a game away from first place. Way to call it, Fan.

The White Sox are still not a great offensive team. Too many of their batters are below the .250 level. But every time you look up these days, the Sox score four, five and six runs. Carlos Quentin has been on a tear and has raised his OPS 70 points in those last ten games. Konerko has maintained a good start and is having a great year. Alex Rios has been the best centerfielder in the game, both at bat and in the field. So the offense is still weak, but a core of four players is carrying them.

But this streak is really about the pitching. Blog buddy, Josh Borenstein of Jews in Baseball defended the White Sox pitching when this old blogger didn't believe in them. And Josh was right. Peavy has 21 consecutive scoreless innings. Floyd and Danks have been better. Buehrle has come back from a bad start and out pitched Tim Hudson the other night. So the starting pitchers have been fantastic. The bullpen has also been better as Putz and Jenks have started to take care of the eighth and ninth the way Kenny Williams designed it.

So, yes, if you are going to write about baseball, there are times when you have to eat crow. And the White Sox just gave the Fan another cruddy black wing to nibble on. But [gulp] the Fan still thinks the Twins are going to win that division.

The Cubs are So Messed Up

What came first, the chicken or the egg? What came first, player problems or hiring manager, Lou Piniella? The latest in a long line of zany Cubs' events occurred today when Carlos Zambrano seemed to go off his John Rocker after giving up some first inning runs. To see his tantrum close up, click here.

First of all, Piniella did the right thing in getting Zambrano out of there. The manager immediately removed the big pitcher from the dugout and sent him home. The pitcher was later suspended. For this particular situation, the manager handled the situation perfectly. But why do these things keep happening to the Cubs?

Stories have surfaced that there are lines drawn behind the scenes among Cubs' personnel. Apparently the divide seems to lie with Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano versus the rest of the team. Carlos Lee seems squarely apposed to the pitcher. Whose fault is all this? Is it possible to say not being privvy to the inner workings of the players' world.

Something has to give for the Cubs. Either the new owners clean house of Hendry, Piniella and the staff or Hendry takes a package...any package...to get Zambrano out of town.

What a mess.

Edwin Jackson Exposes Bay Rays' Weakness

Congratulations to Edwin Jackson on his no-hitter. It was one of the more unusual no-hitters in history. He walked eight batters and hit a batter and the D-Backs made an error behind him. But with the Rays getting ten base runners including the bases loaded with no outs in the third inning, the game really provided a glaring view of the weakness of the Bay Rays.

Let's start with the most glaring weakness. Hank Blalock offers the Bay Rays nothing. He came up several times with men on base including that earlier stated bases loaded situation. He grounded out weakly on the first pitch he saw (after Jackson walked the bases loaded!). He later popped out to shallow left on the first pitch with more men on base. The Designated Hitter has been a gigantic problem and Blalock is not the answer.

The other weakness is that using cheap, young players is a double-edged sword. Their talent is unbelievable, but in tight situations, their youth and inexperience keep them from being patient and getting the job done in high leverage situations. Sean Rodriguez and Matt Joyce repeatedly chased bad sliders in the dirt when the Rays had men on base and killed rallies. Well, they were walk rallies anyway.

Game Picks - Friday: June 25, 2010

Seven correct and five incorrect. The day didn't start well and most of the day games were wrong. But then the night games came through, especially with comebacks which saved the day in Boston, Texas and others. This picker completely fouled up Florida as both Florida teams did the opposite of expected. Amazing night for Pedroia: five hits, three homers. Wow!

Friday has a big slate of games and the Fan can't wait to see what happens:

• The Cubs over the Whtie Sox: Just a hunch that Zambrano will come up big against Peavy.
• The Nationals over the Orioles: Arietta is 2-1 and Martin is 0-3. Quick, which is the better pitcher? Martin's ERA is almost two points lower.
• The Phillies over the Blue Jays: Halladay faces his old team and is due for a win. Litsch was great his last time out. Will it carry over?
• The Padres over the Marlins: Richard is better than Volstad. Been watching the Marlins. They don't hustle. They have no urgency.
• The Bay Rays over the Diamdondbacks: Who made the poor D-Back's interleague schedule. Ouch.
• The Mets over the Twins: Pelfrey takes care of the Twins and Slowey.
• The Reds over the Indians: The battle for Ohio is a mismatch.
• The Rangers over the Astros: The Rangers look unbeatable at this point. Moehler for the Astros won't help.
• The Mariners over the Brewers: Rowland-Smith has been a two-named mess all season, but threw a gem last time. The Mariners are hot. The Brewers sure can hit. What to do?
• The Royals over the Cardinals: Still riding the Greinke band wagon even though it has a flat and the support boards are all rotted out.
• The Rockies over the Angels: The Rockies gave the Red Sox all they could want. What will they do to the Angels?
• The Athletics over the Pirates: Mr. Lincoln has not yet been good enough. Ben Sheets at least has a chance to have a good game.
• The Yankees over the Dodgers: Sabathia should look fine in this one. He's coming on now.
• The Giants over the Red Sox: Wakefield is due for a clunker. Scary pick though.

And the Game of the Day

• The Braves over the Tigers: Got to go with Medlan over an unknown Oliver making his first start for the Tigers.

Yesterday: 7-5
Week: 35-25
Month: 179-121
Season: 616-453
Games of the Day: 34-33 Over .500!

Think the Yankees Are Scary Now?

The Yankees have a two game lead in the American League East despite down production from Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and to some degree, C. C. Sabathia. Many stories have been written concerning Jeter and A-Rod and most include stories about their age. The other two have always been slow starters, but this year, the start has gone deeper into the season.

Derek Jeter had such a good season last season that this year looks terrible in comparison. But Jeter really turned it on in the second half last season. In fact, going back to this same June 24th of that season, he was sitting at his low point for the season in Average and On Base Percentage. From June 25 of last year until the end of the season, he raised his batting average 33 points and his OBP 37 points. In 2008, he had a similar phenomenon. From June 25th to the end of the season in 2008, Jeter raised his BA 22 points and his OBP 18 points. Jeter is a year older, but the fielding stats show him to be having one of his best fielding years in a long time. Jeter will come around. This Fan would bet on it.

Teixeira has already started to hit much better, but his early season sluggishness has gone on much longer than usual. Last year, his BA was much higher than it is now. But he did raise his OPS by 12 points from June 25 to the end of the season. It does not seem possible for Teixeira to reach his career norms by the end of this season. But if he simply hits his norms for the rest of the season, he'll be a big contributor to the Yankees from here on out.

At this point last year, C. C. Sabathia was 6-4 with a 3.71 ERA. The big lefty went 13-4 the rest of the way and lowered his ERA by 27 points. The year before that, Sabathia started 6-6 with Cleveland with an ERA of 3.83. He then went 11-2 with the Brewers and lowered his ERA to 2.70 for the season. Sabathia is already 8-3 this year with a better ERA at this point in the season than last season. His K/9 is exactly the same as last year. After looking at the numbers, this Fan might conclude that he hasn't started badly at all! He'll be fine.

The only one that isn't a good bet is Alex Rodriguez simply because his health hasn't seemed right for a while now. His range of motion is way down and he isn't getting to pitches he used to cream. But Alex Rodriguez was the best player in the game for so many years, it's hard to count him out. If he can at least match his last year's numbers for the rest of the season, it will be enough.

The Yankees have the best record in the majors to date, but they haven't even hit their stride yet. That's a pretty scary thought for the rest of the division.

Game Picks - Thursday: June 24, 2010

Eleven correct. Four incorrect. Now that's better! This picker finally broke through his Florida funk and came up with a good night of picking. Of course it took some luck too. The Yankees didn't slug their way back to the lead, they walked there as Arizona pitching blew a good sized lead by pitching 13 walks. Boston also let a lead slip away against Ubaldo Jiminez after they had rallied to take that lead. Of the few incorrect picks, the Bay Rays continue to combine weak hitting with starting pitching that is off their blistering pace and lost again. Figured they would win.

There are 12 games on tap for Thursday, which isn't bad for the usual "get-away" day. Many of them are day games which is always fun. So here's how it should shape up:

• The Padres over the Bay Rays: The Padres have made a believer out of this old Fan. Plus, Garza had his worst outing ever last time out.
• The Phillies over the Indians: Carmona hasn't been bad, but Cleveland shouldn't score more than the Phillies do and that will be the difference.
• The Giants over the Astros: Cain has been fantastic but gets no run support. Wandy has been awful and should provide those runs.
• The White Sox over the Braves: Derek Lowe always scares the Fan. Gavin Floyd should out pitch him.
• The Brewers over the Twins: Blackburn gave the Fan heartburn last time out. Not going there.
• The Mariners over the Cubs: The Mariners have out pitched the Cubs all series. King Felix will make it unanimous.
• The Marlins over the Orioles: Both teams have interim managers. But the Marlins have more talent.
• The Cardinals over the Blue Jays: If Morrow is on, this pick could blow up. But Wainwright is pitching and the Cardinals should win.
• The Tigers over the Mets: The Mets are really playing well, but if Galarraga comes up big, the Tigers could steal a win.
• The Red Sox over the Rockies: Dice-K will baffle the Rockies and Hammel's streak will come to an end.
• The Dodgers over the Angels: The Fan has given up on the Dodgers, but after Dickey's performance for the Mets, how can you not root for Haeger to keep the knuckle flowing?

And the Game of the Day:

• The Rangers over the Pirates: The Rangers have Cruz back in a line up that is piling it on. Feldman gets an easy win.

Yesterday: 11-4
Week: 28-20
Month: 172-116
Season: 609-448
Games of the Day: 33-33

Mets Playing A Joy

It was pure joy watching the Mets beat the Tigers on Wednesday night. It wasn't because the Mets are a favorite team. The opposite is probably more true. It wasn't a joy because the Tigers lost. Leyland is the type of manager you root for and Cabrera is always a pleasure to watch. No, it was a joy watching R. A. Dickey pitch so well and because Jose Reyes plays with such exuberance that it's impossible not to smile with him when he plays.

Let's start with R. A. Dickey. His eight innings of shut-out ball improved his record this year to 6-0 in seven starts. His first start was a no decision. Dickey is 36 years old. He was a first round draft pick by the Texas Rangers way back in 1996 after he was one of the best college pitchers ever at Tennessee. Dickey bounced around in the minors a while and got a brief look by the Rangers in 2001. It didn't go well. Dickey then made the roster in 2003 and made 13 starts among 38 total appearances. His stats were a mixed bag. His K/BB ratio was decent but he gave up too many homers and too many hits and ended the season with 5.09 ERA despite his 9-8 record.

He steadily got worse after that and fell back to the minors and was up and down for several years. According to interviews, it was during that time that he simply realized that he wasn't going to be good enough to make it with his stuff. So he turned to the knuckleball. While committing to that pitch he left the Texas organization and went to Seattle after not pitching at all in the majors in 2007. His 2008 year in Seattle wasn't very good either and he finished with an ERA over 5.00 and still gave up a lot of homers.

He then pitched for the Twins in 2009 and except for one game, pitched all of his 35 appearances in relief. For the first time in his career, he finished with an ERA below 5. Granted, 4.62 wasn't a great ERA nor was a 1.62 WHIP very good. But it was progress. This year, the Mets gave him a chance and he opened the season in the minors. But with the mess that was the Mets' rotation (Perez, Maine to name two), Dickey got his chance and has really come through. His years devoted to becoming a knuckleball pitcher have paid off and Wednesday night's performance brought his ERA down to 2.33 and his WHIP down to 1.29. Yeah, he still gives up quite a few base runners. But he's been around long enough that he doesn't panic and it all seems to work out.

Dickey pitches like a man who is glad to finally have a chance to shine after all those years of futility. His story is a remarkable one and an inspiring one.

Jose Reyes is one of those tantalizing talents. He's either very good or his play is problematic. It's hard to forget the terrible slump he had in September of 2007 and 2008 that allowed the Phillies to catch and pass the Mets for the division titles. His career 101 OPS+ does not speak to sustained brilliance. "Consistent" isn't a moniker you would hang on Reyes. He is a lead off man who has a career OBP of .336. But he's already hit 78 triples in his career and has stolen 319 bases. When he is on his game, he's one of the most exciting players in baseball. When he's struggling, he really struggles.

But Wednesday night was a good night. he had three hits including a triple, a single and a homer. He also made a far ranging play behind second base that few shortstops could make. You could tell that Reyes was having a ball. His smile was huge, his actions emphatic and that is what makes Jose Reyes such a transcendent player despite his inconsistency. When he has fun, David Wright has fun too. To see Wright smile as he interacted with Reyes is a stark contrast to the grim reaper-look Wright carried all of last year. That's what Reyes brings to the Mets and to baseball.

And that's why our sport is such a joy to follow. This hasn't been a good week. It's been a week of bad news and stressful situations. But baseball can entertain us in such a way that for a few hours each day, those things can melt away. All the Fan can say is a great big thank you to guys like R. A. Dickey and to Jose Reyes.

Mulling Over Miami

The Florida Marlins fired their manager, Fredi Gonzalez, on Wednesday along with two of his coaches. It was quite a shock. And whenever shocking news happens, it takes a bit of contemplation to figure out what happened and why. Quotes from the principles who made the decision seem to make sense on the surface. In this story from Yahoo sports, Larry Beinfest, the Marlins' president of baseball operations said that the Marlins seemed stuck in neutral. That certainly seems true as the Marlins area .500 team (slightly under actually). But while that makes sense on the surface, it doesn't feel right.

For one thing, the Marlins have operated on a shoestring budget for years now. They had to be embarrassed by the union and MLB about their lack of spending on players before the season started. What can Beinfest and owner, Jeffrey Loria, expect when they fail to spend any money? Isn't that like buying hamburger and expecting it to be steak? They have one superstar on the field in Hanley Ramirez. They have one superstar in the starting rotation with Josh Johnson. But that talent is somewhat limited around them. In order for this team to win, everything has to go right. And sometimes it doesn't.

Loria's comments were almost comical: "Everyone knows how I feel about winning. That’s the reason we’re making this change.” Everyone knows how he feels about winning? Isn't that statement contradictory to the amount of money the team spends on talent? The Bay Rays do what the Marlins do but they are a bit smarter about it. The Marlins have remained competitive despite their payroll thanks in part to wise personnel management and...well...pretty good management on the field.

There weren't any bells going off about the managing ability of Fredi Gonzalez other than deep confusion about his first name. There have been reports about a feud between the manager and his mercurial shortstop. But that isn't unusual in baseball history. Though that in itself could have caused enough tension internally to end Gonzalez's job security. But besides the feud with his best player, Gonzalez seemed like a good game manager and made the right moves most of the time. And from some of the quotes of the players in the aftermath, they seemed to like and respect the man. So a lot of this doesn't make sense.

So there is a need to break down why this really occurred. And the reasons seem to fall under two possible scenarios, neither of which seem very savory:

1. Hanley wanted him gone.
2. Loria is delusional that his team can carry the day when he shorthands them in every way he can.

Another team president immediately mentioned Bobby Valentine as a person of interest. But the Marlins will have to interview a few minority candidates especially since the departed manager was in that category (which is one of the shames of this story). It would be hard to imagine Valentine desiring this situation in light of the Marlins' budget constraints and with Loria's recent treatment of Joe Girardi and now Fredi Gonzalez. But stranger things have happened. Valentine is known as a disciplinarian. Would that work with Hanley Ramirez? Good luck with that.

No, this move doesn't feel right and it seemed pointless. The Marlins are still going to come in third either way.

The Cardinals Will Win the Central

The Cardinals and the Reds have been flip-flopping between first and second place all season. The Reds have hung in there tough as they played surprisingly well and the Cardinals seemed to be stuck in traction. But even though the Cardinals have gone up in the division by a game and a game only, this race seems to be over.

The Cardinals simply have more horses than the Reds do. Let's compare:

Carpenter is better than Cueto.
Wainwright is better than Leake.
Garcia is better than Arroyo.
Penny is better than Harang.
The fifth starter is weak for both teams.

Take away Joey Votto, Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips from the Reds line up and there isn't much else happening there. They get shut down by good pitching. The Cardinals in contrast have too many weapons. There is Ludwick and Holliday (who is on fire), Pujols, Freese and Colby Rasmus. The Cardinals are more apt to score consistently and more apt to get a quality start.

The bullpen is really the Reds' only edge over the Cardinals. When you throw in Tony LaRussa over Dusty Baker, the edge is complete. The Reds were a nice story and a nice surprise. But the Cards are in the driver's seat and soon won't be looking back.

Game Picks - Wednesday: June 23, 2010

Not a good night for this old picker. The Game of the Day was correct but less than half of the rest of the picks ended up being correct. That means that this Fan is around .500 for the five days here in Florida. It seems this same thing occurred last year during this same trip. Maybe it's all this Florida sun or maybe it's that interleague falls on the same time frame. Whatever the case, there hasn't been a good picking day for quite a while.

But, Florida and interleague games be darned, the Fan still has a job to do. On to Wednesday:

• The Reds over the Athletics: Cueto should be better than Mazzaro. The Reds' offense is just barely better than the A's.
• The Nationals over the Royals: Strasburg! Don't ever remember this much excitement. Ever.
• The Marlins over the Orioles: Picked the Orioles yesterday. Dumb. Nolasco should win.
• The Phillies over the Indians: Kendrick pitched well his last time out against the Yankees.
• The Cardinals over the Blue Jays: Went with the Blue Jays yesterday, but their young pitching doesn't seem to hold up against good teams like the Cardinals. Plus, Carpenter is pitching.
• Tampa Bay over the Padres: Correia is no Latos and Shields is no Wade Davis.
• The Mets over the Tigers. Picked the Tigers yesterday and they were whacked with Verlander. The Tigers pitch Bonderson today. Nope. Mets are rolling.
• The Astros over the Giants: Just a hunch here that Myers will out pitch Zito.
• The Rangers over the Pirates: Nippert is a dumb starter for the Rangers, but they will still score more than the Pirates will.
• The Twins over the Brewres: Liriano will shut the Brew Crew down.
• The Braves over the White Sox: Got to believe Hudson should beat Buehrle.
• The Rockies over the Red Sox: Ubaldo! Win number 14? Should be as the Red Sox get no DH.
• The Yankees over the Diamondbacks: Vazquez should be better than Willis. Should be? Will be.
• The Angels over the Dodgers: The Fan is giving up on the Dodgers. Can't seem to win lately with them at all.

And the Game of the Day

• The Mariners over the Cubs: The Cubs' offense is already terrible. Pitch Mr. Lee and it will be invisible.

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 17-16
Month: 161-112
Season: 598-444
Games of the Day: 32-33

Game Picks - Tuesday: June 22, 2010

This picker had twice as many correct picks yesterday compared to incorrect ones. Too bad there were only three games to pick from. And of course, thanks to A. J. Freakin' Burnett, the one incorrect pick was the Game of the Day pick. Grrr. At least the Reds and the Nationals got off their long slides, so predicting that accurately was nice.

Tuesday features another full day of interleague picks:

• The Orioles over the Marlins: Just a hunch on this one. Guthrie has been pitching really well with nothing to show for it. Sanchez isn't the best of the Marlins' pitchers.
• The Royals over the Nationals: Leruw was good his first time out though the Royals lost the game. Atilano hasn't been that good.
• The Blue Jays over the Cardinals: Have to go with Cecil on this one over Garcia.
• The Padres over the Bay Rays: Wade Davis has pitched poorly and Latos has been the Padres' best pitcher.
• The Tigers over the Mets: Think Verlander will blow the Mets away.
• The Giants over the Astros: Lincecum should out duel Oswalt. Low scoring game.
• The Rangers over the Pirates: Got to go with Hunter over Ohlendorf.
• The Braves over the White Sox: Danks has been good but Hanson should prevail.
• The Twins over the Brewers: Baker has been consistent. Narveson hasn't been.
• The Rockies over the Red Sox: The Red Sox lose the DH. Chacin throws well.
• The Yankees over the Diamondbacks: Pettitte out pitches Haran.
• The Dodgers over the Angels: Manny can DH. Kershaw shuts the Angels down.
• The Athletics over the Reds: Braden hasn't gotten a win in a while. Tonight's the night.
• The Cubs over the Mariners: Dempster should be better than Vargas.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Phillies over the Indians: The Phillies will pound Talbot. But Moyer is pitching. hmmm....

Yesterday: 2-1
Week: 10-8
Month: 154-104
Season: 591-436
Games of the Day: 31-33

A. J. Burnett Is Killing the Yankees

The arguments on whether A. J. Burnett is just flat out bad, or only bad when he pitches to Jorge Posada is a moot point. Jorge Posada is the Yankee's number one catcher. And if Burnett can't pitch to him, he is of little use to the Yankees. Watching the game on Monday night in Arizona, Burnett and Posada looked like a couple of middle high students dancing together for the first time. But why would that mean that Burnett couldn't hit a target if he had a hundred chances to do so? It's hard to fathom.

Burnett has pitched 39.2 innings to Francisco Cervelli. his ERA is 3.63 and his OPS against is .705. He's pitched to Posada for 28.2 (not including Monday night's fiasco) and his ERA with Jorge is 4.71 and his OPS against is .866. This is certainly not an isolated statistic. Overall, for the Yankee pitchers in 2010, they have an ERA of 3.54 with an OPS against of .680 when pitching to Cervelli and a 4.26 ERA with a .725 OPS against with Posada. That makes this year no different than last year when the same phenomenon occurred.

It would be interesting to get a catcher's perspective to break that down and figure out why. Does Posada call a bad game? Does he set up too late? Does he receive the ball badly and not get strike calls? The Fan hasn't seen enough games to detect a difference. But something is different when Posada catches. And that difference affects Burnett more than any other Yankee pitcher.

Whether you blame Burnett or blame Posada, the situation is untenable. The Yankees don't have enough wiggle room in a three team horse race for two spots in the playoffs to give away games when the tandem are together. Monday night's game was the fourth straight bad outing for Burnett. The last two have been with Posada and the previous two with Chad Moeller. Without throwing any of those games to Cervelli, you can't rule out if Cervelli would have made a difference.

The problem with Burnett has always seemed to revolve around two problems. Burnett can't seem to finish an inning when he gets two quick outs. And he can't seem to finish off a batter when he gets two quick strikes. Burnett's first seven runs given up against the Diamondbacks all came with two outs and all with nobody on base after those two outs.

So what do you do about this situation? Do you have to catch Cervelli every time Burnett pitches? Posada makes a lot of money and is one of the cornerstones on the Yankees. Burnett makes a lot of money and would be impossible to trade and is too expensive to put in the bullpen. In a perfect world, Posada would DH every game for the rest of the year, but you know that won't happen. It's a problem. It's a very big problem

Game Picks - Monday: June 21, 2010

Another blah picking day here in Florida. Yesterday was just one game over .500 which makes this picker just one game over .500 for the three days he's been in Florida.

It's another short day and the last one went well, so let's see if it can happen again.

Monday's picks:

• The Nationals over the Royals: Going with Livan Hernandez over Bruce Chen. Now there's a match up made in heaven...
• The Reds over the Athletics: Leake needs to rebound after his last outing.

And th Game of the Day

• The Yankees over the Diamondbacks: The Yankees will get to old friend Lopez often enough to bail out Burnett.

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 8-7
Month: 152-103
Season: 589-433
Games of the Day: 32-32

Dodgers Incomplete

The Dodgers have a good team. They play in a division where nobody is going to run away with things. But watching the Dodgers play on Sunday night, they are missing a few ingredients to put them over the top. Kemp, Manny and Ethier are top notch players. Furcal is good from the lead off position and needs to get back from his injury. But it just seems like the Dodgers are two players short.

From one through five, they are equal to anyone in their league. Furcal (when he isn't injured), Kemp, Ethier, Manny and Loney put pressure on any pitcher in the league. But what happens all too often is that two or three of those players get on base and the guys behind them like Blake, Russell and DeWitt allow the rally to wither. And so with the core five being all good offensive players, the Dodgers should score a lot more runs than they do. They are in the middle of the pack in team OPS.

Likewise, the Dodgers are short in the starting rotation. They have Kuroda and Kershaw they can count on but no other starter, including Billingsley (who is out hurt) is over 100 in ERA+. Ely looks promising as his K/9 and K/BB ratios all show him to be better than his results so far indicate. But any team that depends on Billingsley and Padilla for a pennant run is difficult at best.

Because they are short in the line up and short in the rotation, the Dodgers can't put together any kind of long string of victories and will not be able to put away the NL West with any kind of ease. Such weaknesses will allow the Padres, the Giants and the Rockies an ability to stay with the Dodgers and overcome them at the end.

Manny's Lawyer Should Have Been Present

Don't know about you, but watching the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game on ESPN irked this writer with its public skewering of Manny Ramirez. Manny, as many of you know, returned to Boston with the Dodgers for an interleague series. No matter what you think happened during Manny Ramirez's last season with the Red Sox, was it necessary to bring in Curt Schilling whose opinion on the subject has already been so public?

There are two things that disturb this writer about allowing Schilling to come into the booth and pull no punches on what happened with Manny during his last year with the Red Sox. First, isn't Schilling the first one to talk about the sanctity of the clubhouse if someone violates it? And here he is airing things all out there in public without allowing Manny to defend himself. It was a public execution. As far as the Fan knows, Manny has never aired his opinions on what happened in Boston. Schilling took great pride and enthusiasm in publicly skewering Ramirez and that doesn't seem right.

The second thing that bothered the Fan about the whole thing was ESPN allowing and probably encouraging the public flogging to take place. It would have been natural to bring Schilling into the booth at the scene of his heroics. Sure, bring the old workhorse in and talk about those heroics. But Jon Miller allowed the questioning to go right to Manny and allowed Schilling the opportunity that Schilling handled with relish. If the Fan was in charge of the telecast, the directive would have been not to publicly hang Ramirez during a telecast that the man couldn't defend himself against. It was ugly, that's what it was. And it was mean spirited.

The Fan isn't sure that Manny doesn't deserve the negative take on his last year in Boston. That's a question for history and reflection. If you want to debate the issue, put Manny in an interview room with Schilling and let them go at it. But geez, to allow a former teammate to come on a telecast and bury the guy which then allowed Orel Hershiser to continue the character assassination was just wrong. You could tell that Joe Morgan was uncomfortable in the situation. But Jon Miller seemed to enjoy what he had created.

It was uncalled for and in this Fan's opinion, unprofessional. And in another final aside, was Orel Herschiser really irritating during the telecast or what? From his baiting of Joe Morgan to his multiple references of "studying," he came across as the little kid who tries harder than everyone else and has to make sure everyone knows it. Worse than anything Steve Phillips used to do...

Holiday Ambivalence

[[switching to first person]] I have always had an ambivalence to many holidays. The only two that seem to mean much to me are Memorial Day and July 4th. Probably July 4th is the most important to me because I love this country, warts and all, and can appreciate what significance the day means in history and for me as a citizen. If you are of the religious persuasion to celebrate Easter and Christmas and even Thanksgiving, which has its roots in Christianity, the thing or reasons those holidays are celebrated should be celebrated every day. President's Day is sort of a non-entity. I can appreciate the sentiment of Martin Luther King Day. Labor Day doesn't mean anything when so many people still have to labor on that day. Then we get to the pseudo-holidays: Mother's Day, Father's Day, Valentine's Day and others like it. The cynic in me simply believes these days were invented for Hallmark and other card-making companies. So today is Father's Day. What does it mean to me?

First, my own father has been gone now longer than he was alive. He died as the result of a car accident 44 years ago. I was ten at the time. He was a complex man who was a hero in World War II but pretty much failed at life after that. His death was probably a mercy killing. Growing up without a dad left Father's Day kind of empty. His hole in my life has been deep but I have long since worked that out with poems, family genealogy and his war medals that I keep and are my most prized possessions. But on Father's Day, there was nothing to celebrate.

Then I became a father myself. I have two wonderful children. They weren't planned well as one is 31 and the other is 14. Oops. But a father couldn't ask for better children. My 31 year old son was my buddy and there are a lifetime of memories that we share. During his early years, I worked the graveyard shift which left us a lot of leeway to enjoy each other during the day. And we did. We share this passion for baseball that is one of those bonds that lasts a lifetime. We share the same favorite team with the same kind of passion. He has a good heart and avoided most serious troubles that sons can get into. He's a good man and you can't ask for much more than that.

My daughter, as with most dads, is the twinkle in my eye. She has the ability to make me melt into a puddle of goo whenever she is around. She's fourteen now and at an age when most parents would start to worry about life choices and the road ahead. But she has such a good attitude about life that much trouble seems unlikely. Her favorite shirt seems to say it all: "Today is going to be incredible." As long as she keeps that life outlook, she'll be okay.

But I don't need Father's Day to celebrate and be celebrated. If you were raised right, being a father has no other option but to love and be loved as the most natural thing in the world. It's a year long and year by year wonder of closeness and celebration. I have not spared my children any of the love I have in my heart and it has been received and returned in a variety of ways with consistency. So why would I need a Father's Day? I don't.

Most fathers, I assume, are like me. We want to reach out and give to our children. We are uncomfortable when that role is reversed. I would be quite content to never get a card or a gift from either of my two. It seems unnatural. Although I do love how my daughter scribbles and doodles all over the envelopes that seem to be even more special than the card itself. I don't need gifts from my children. It's not that I don't appreciate the thoughts behind them, I do. But both my children should understand that their lives alone are the greatest two gifts I have ever received. Nothing could top that and nothing else is required. When I close my eyes every day and picture them each and every day, it becomes Father's Day. Every day they grace this world is all the gift I need.

Game Picks - Sunday: June 20, 2010

Seven correct. Eight incorrect. It wasn't a good day, was it? Nope, not a good day at all. That's two days of picking in Florida with a combined record of 30-30. Perhaps it's too hot for the picks to stand up. It's definitely too hot for relief pitchers. They are wilting all over the place. Three blown saves made a huge difference in the day's picks. Get those three blown saves back and you have a 10-5 record. But that's the way it goes.

Sunday is always a Fan favorite because all but one game is played during the day. The Fan loves day games. It's the way baseball should be played. Here are Sunday's picks:

• The Diamondbacks over the Tigers: Going with Ian Kennedy over Scherzer.
• The Yankees over the Mets: Sabathia will out pitch Santana.
• The Bllue Jays over the Giants: When good young pitchers on the same team see their peers pitching well, it feeds on itself because of the inbred competition. Marcum will feed off of the great effort of Litsch yesterday.
• The Marlins over the Bay Rays: Price is great for the Bay Rays but Johnson is even better for the Marlins who have given the Bay Rays a great series.
• The Indians over the Pirates: The Pirates got a win yesterday. They won't win two in a row.
• The Braves over the Royals: Kawakami can't buy a win. But Millwood won yesterday, so perhaps the tide will turn for Kawakami too.
• The Phillies over the Twins: Halladay should rebound with a nice game against the Twins. He faces Pavano, the bane of this picker for ages.
• The White Sox over the Nationals: The White Sox start of Garcia is offeset by the Nationals' starter, Lannon.
• The Rangers over the Astros: The Rangers are rolling. Good pitching, great hitting.
• The Cardinals over the Athletics: Suppon again builds the case for Duncan in the HOF. The A's are one of the worst road teams in baseball.
• The Cubs over the Angels: Zambrano was pretty good his last start. Saunders is always an adventure, though he pitched very well his last time out.
• The Brewers over the Rockies: Think Wolf will beat Cook, but if last night was any indication, the Brewers' bullpen can't hold a lead. Hoffman isn't even pitching. Pssst...Ken Macha...Villanueva isn't the answer.
• The Orioles over the Padres: What?? The Orioles win two in a row? Arietta has been great so far and is 2-0. Garland has been banged around a bit lately. Seems to add up.
• The Reds over the Mariners: Will take Harang over Rowland-Smith in a battle of two evils.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Red Sox over the Dodgers: The Red Sox are now only a game out of first place. The Dodgers have no shot in this game. Sweep.

Yesterday: 7-8
Last Week: 52-38
Month: 144-96
Season: 581-426
Games of the Day: 30-32 [[slapping forehead]]

Troy Glaus...Whuh?

If many of us were given a word association game concerning Troy Glaus and the shrink asked us the first words that popped into our head when mentioning Glaus, our answers would probably be something like: "Mitchell Report," "Washed up," "Is he still playing?" His first month of the season with the Braves, as unlikely as it seemed that they had signed him, did little to change all those first reactions. He hit below the Mendoza Line for the month of April. Since then? Now our reactions to that word association game would be, "What the heck is going on there?"

Indeed. What is going on there? The Braves signed him this year for $1.75 million. He can make another $500,000 in incentive clauses. Even if the season ended tomorrow, the Braves got the steal of the year. This is just one year after missing almost all of 2009 with a shoulder injury that seemed in light of his Mitchell Report standing, to figure his career was over. It was even a surprise that Glaus would take that kind of money after making over $10 million a year over his past four years. But, you see, that's the trouble with making blanket judgements based on cynicism. Apparently, Troy Glaus still has a strong desire to play baseball and to play it well. And is he ever playing well!

Glaus leads the National League in RBIs with 55. He hit his 14th homer of the season on Saturday night to help beat Zack Greinke and the Royals. Going into that game, he had a 131 OPS+. If the season ended tomorrow for Glaus, the Braves would still be way ahead on the deal. His play to date has already been valued by FanGraphs.com at $4.5 million for the season. If it wasn't for his defense, it would be even higher. But what is pretty much unappreciated concerning the year he is having is that his numbers are really nothing new for any year that Glaus has played in his career when he has been healthy.

Most people wouldn't guess that Troy Glaus has a 121 lifetime OPS+. Take away his two injury-plagued seasons (2007, 2009) and it would be higher. Glaus has been an All Star four times. He was the 2002 World Series MVP. He hit 38 homers for the Blue Jays in 2006 well after drug testing was implemented. Just two years ago, he hit 27 homers and drove in 99 while compiling a 124 OPS+.

So when it all boils down to it, none of us should be surprised about the season is having, but we all are. Aren't we?