David Eckstein is said to be one of those "players." You know, one of those guys that are great for teams because they play the game right and are true blue professionals. But, you still have to score runs and limit runs from the other team. The San Diego Padres just signed Orlando Hudson and he is an upgrade on the former and a slight downgrade on the latter.
The difference in their bWAR really isn't all that different. Orlando Hudson scored a 2.0 WAR as the Twins' second baseman while David Eckstein came in at 1.4. B-R rated Eckstein's defense slightly higher than Hudson, but Hudson is no slouch with the glove. In fact, he's been known for years as a slick-fielding second baseman.
What Hudson does offer the Padres is better offense, something the Padres desperately need, especially since their first baseman now plays for the Red Sox. The Padres were supposed to get Jason Bartlett in a trade from the Bay Rays but for some reason, that trade has been snagged up. But if the Padres can get that done, they have a real nice double play combo in the middle of the diamond.
As for Eckstein, he's still a free agent and it seems that some team will pick him up on his reputation alone. He can be somebody's utility guy and play short, second and third in a pinch. But second base is definitely his best position.
Eckstein finished last year with an 83 OPS+ and sits at 87 for his career. Hudson should be a nice upgrade from those numbers as his OPS+ was 93 last year and 99 for his career. Hudson is more patient at the plate and has more pop in his bat. He also strikes out more than Eckstein.
As long as Hudson stays around the 2.0 mark for WAR, this is a nice upgrade for the Padres. The move spruces up their offense while not sacrificing very much on defense. Hudson can sometimes lose his mind on the bases and is plagued by inconsistency. But he should be more dynamic for the Padres than what they had in 2010.
Friday, December 17, 2010
Kerry Wood to Chicago With Love
Cliff Lee got paid oodles of money to go back "home" to Philadelphia. Kerry Wood is also going home to the Cubs, but for a heck of a lot less money. After rebuilding his reputation with his late season stint for the New York Yankees that included a minuscule 0.69 ERA in 24 appearances and a return to his over 10 K/9 mantra, it would seem that Wood could have picked up a good paycheck anywhere in the market that has developed this off season for relief pitchers. Three year contracts abound with numbers like $12 million and $15 million being bounced around. But Wood went home for just $1.5 million.
Rumors had been that Wood was asking for closer-type money to re-sign back with the Yankees or another club. Wood has made $10 in each of the last two seasons and has made $68.5 million in his career. But it appears that going back to the Cubs, a team whose fan base love him like no other and a place where Kerry Wood became a legend, is where he truly wanted to be. Why else would he consider so little money when he probably could have made millions more elsewhere.
And why wouldn't he want to go back to Chicago? He is unique to Cubs' history. It was for that team that he struck out 20 batters in a game to tie Roger Clemens' record. It was there that he won the Rookie of the Year Award with 233 strikeouts in 166.2 innings pitched. It was there that he came oh so close to leading the Cubs back to the World Series. It was mostly there that he compiled 1519 career strikeouts in only 1320.1 innings pitched.
Kerry Wood has a .550 career winning percentage and 83 wins. He now has 62 career saves. His stuff has always been electric. His health has always been fragile. But he is a Cub and he's going back where he belongs. Enjoy your home town hero, Chicago.
Rumors had been that Wood was asking for closer-type money to re-sign back with the Yankees or another club. Wood has made $10 in each of the last two seasons and has made $68.5 million in his career. But it appears that going back to the Cubs, a team whose fan base love him like no other and a place where Kerry Wood became a legend, is where he truly wanted to be. Why else would he consider so little money when he probably could have made millions more elsewhere.
And why wouldn't he want to go back to Chicago? He is unique to Cubs' history. It was for that team that he struck out 20 batters in a game to tie Roger Clemens' record. It was there that he won the Rookie of the Year Award with 233 strikeouts in 166.2 innings pitched. It was there that he came oh so close to leading the Cubs back to the World Series. It was mostly there that he compiled 1519 career strikeouts in only 1320.1 innings pitched.
Kerry Wood has a .550 career winning percentage and 83 wins. He now has 62 career saves. His stuff has always been electric. His health has always been fragile. But he is a Cub and he's going back where he belongs. Enjoy your home town hero, Chicago.
Comebacks to Root For
Every baseball season is a clean slate full of unwritten stories waiting to unfold. We've all been fascinated by the off season market as teams jostle for position to compete in the unwritten season. Some teams have made moves that already have pundits placing them in the 2011 World Series. But even with all kinds of new talent in place, a lot has to go right for these few blessed teams. One small story among all the other off season stories caught the Fan's interest. The story stated that the Yankees signed Mark Prior to a minor league contract. As soon as the eyes read the name, an emotion was palpable: "Golly, I hope he can make it back to the majors." That sentiment led to thought on others that are out there we could root for to make it all the way back to the majors. Here are a few the Fan could come up with:
Mark Prior - The name alone speaks of unfinished work. He was like Stephen Crane, who died at the age of 26 and a genius was lost. Mark Prior was a pitching genius. Through his one big season and the sputtering of other partial seasons, Prior still ended up with a lifetime mark of over ten strikeouts per nine innings as a starter. By the time he last pitched in the majors (2006), he went 1-6 and still finished with a lifetime mark of 42-29. Prior pitched an inning in Triple A in 2010, the first inning of any kind in organized professional baseball in four years. It was a scoreless inning and he struck out two batters. Is the talent still there? Can he ever make it all the way back? The Yankees must think so because they signed him to a minor league deal. He's only 30 years old. Wouldn't that be awesome?
Brandon Webb - In the four years between 2005 and 2008, Brandon Webb won 70 games and lost only 37. During that span, he won a Cy Young Award and came in second twice. 2008 ended a five year run of never missing a start. He led the league in starts in two of those years, innings pitched once, batters faced once. He had a two year run where he was over 150 in ERA+ and in 2008, it was 141. And just as suddenly as could be, it was over. He pitched six innings in 2009 and none in 2010. Now he's ready to return and news outlets are reporting that he is near to picking a team to play for. Several are interested. Let's hope he can find the right home and resume was was turning out to be a beautiful career.
Jake Peavy - Last the Fan heard, Peavy will not pitch until at least June. Let's hope that is optimistic. Peavy won 19 games in 2007 and won the Cy Young Award. He was again very good in 2008 but his record did not reflect his excellence. He was traded to the White Sox in 2009 for the stretch run and went 3-0 before again coming up injured. He pitched 17 games in 2010, but we hardly noticed. He showed an excellent K/BB ratio despite mixed results and then he was shut down for the season. He makes a lot of money, so he's all set there. But we'd love to see him come all the way back to the front line pitcher he once was.
Dontrelle Willis - This, besides Mark Prior, is probably the most pie-in-the-sky wish of them all. The trevails of Dontrelle Willis are well known and don't need to be repeated here. He has signed with the Cincinnati Reds and maybe the National League and some miracle can happen and we can all see Willis smile that wonderful smile again.
Pedro Martinez - Talk about your long shots. Pedro pitched for the Phillies down the stretch in 2009 and was destroyed by the Yankees in the World Series. He hasn't pitched since except for the WBC last year. We'd love to see him come back and twirl those whiffle ball sliders just a few more times.
Magglio Ordonez - Had to get a non-pitcher in here. Mags was having a great season last season when he was lost for the remainder of the season with a major injury. The Tigers have signed him to a $10 million deal, so you would think they expect to play him regularly for that kind of money. It would be nice to see him pick up where he left off. He is 36 and if he can have another productive three years, he becomes a marginal Hall of Fame candidate. Great career numbers we'd love to see added upon.
Chris Capuano - He was really a great comeback story last year. But he's a free agent now and it would be great to see him continue his comeback and get a full year in with someone. Excellent peripherals in his 60+ innings last year.
Manny Ramirez - Can the Fan write a piece like this without including Manny? A large percentage of baseball fandom would be happy if Manny went away like Barry Bonds, but this Fan would love to see one more big season from the goon.
***UPDATE*** Just thought of another one: Chien-Ming Wang
Mark Prior - The name alone speaks of unfinished work. He was like Stephen Crane, who died at the age of 26 and a genius was lost. Mark Prior was a pitching genius. Through his one big season and the sputtering of other partial seasons, Prior still ended up with a lifetime mark of over ten strikeouts per nine innings as a starter. By the time he last pitched in the majors (2006), he went 1-6 and still finished with a lifetime mark of 42-29. Prior pitched an inning in Triple A in 2010, the first inning of any kind in organized professional baseball in four years. It was a scoreless inning and he struck out two batters. Is the talent still there? Can he ever make it all the way back? The Yankees must think so because they signed him to a minor league deal. He's only 30 years old. Wouldn't that be awesome?
Brandon Webb - In the four years between 2005 and 2008, Brandon Webb won 70 games and lost only 37. During that span, he won a Cy Young Award and came in second twice. 2008 ended a five year run of never missing a start. He led the league in starts in two of those years, innings pitched once, batters faced once. He had a two year run where he was over 150 in ERA+ and in 2008, it was 141. And just as suddenly as could be, it was over. He pitched six innings in 2009 and none in 2010. Now he's ready to return and news outlets are reporting that he is near to picking a team to play for. Several are interested. Let's hope he can find the right home and resume was was turning out to be a beautiful career.
Jake Peavy - Last the Fan heard, Peavy will not pitch until at least June. Let's hope that is optimistic. Peavy won 19 games in 2007 and won the Cy Young Award. He was again very good in 2008 but his record did not reflect his excellence. He was traded to the White Sox in 2009 for the stretch run and went 3-0 before again coming up injured. He pitched 17 games in 2010, but we hardly noticed. He showed an excellent K/BB ratio despite mixed results and then he was shut down for the season. He makes a lot of money, so he's all set there. But we'd love to see him come all the way back to the front line pitcher he once was.
Dontrelle Willis - This, besides Mark Prior, is probably the most pie-in-the-sky wish of them all. The trevails of Dontrelle Willis are well known and don't need to be repeated here. He has signed with the Cincinnati Reds and maybe the National League and some miracle can happen and we can all see Willis smile that wonderful smile again.
Pedro Martinez - Talk about your long shots. Pedro pitched for the Phillies down the stretch in 2009 and was destroyed by the Yankees in the World Series. He hasn't pitched since except for the WBC last year. We'd love to see him come back and twirl those whiffle ball sliders just a few more times.
Magglio Ordonez - Had to get a non-pitcher in here. Mags was having a great season last season when he was lost for the remainder of the season with a major injury. The Tigers have signed him to a $10 million deal, so you would think they expect to play him regularly for that kind of money. It would be nice to see him pick up where he left off. He is 36 and if he can have another productive three years, he becomes a marginal Hall of Fame candidate. Great career numbers we'd love to see added upon.
Chris Capuano - He was really a great comeback story last year. But he's a free agent now and it would be great to see him continue his comeback and get a full year in with someone. Excellent peripherals in his 60+ innings last year.
Manny Ramirez - Can the Fan write a piece like this without including Manny? A large percentage of baseball fandom would be happy if Manny went away like Barry Bonds, but this Fan would love to see one more big season from the goon.
***UPDATE*** Just thought of another one: Chien-Ming Wang
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Encarnacion's Strange Trip Home
Edwin Encarnacion doubled his career transaction total in just two months. And the sum total of those strange trips through the transaction wire is a return ticket home to Toronto for almost half the money he made last year.
First, he was put on waivers by the Blue Jays after a semi-productive year for the Toronto team in 2010. The Oakland Athletics picked him up off of waivers on November 12. The A's then non-tendered him and he became a free agent on December 2. Exactly two weeks later, the Blue Jays signed him and brought him back to the ball club. That's quite a road trip.
Encarnacio, who made $5,170,000 last year as the Blue Jays' semi-regular third baseman dashed off 21 homers in 2010, a goodly sum in 332 at bats and added to the Blue Jays' record breaking team home run total. He seemed to fit right into the Blue Jays all or nothing style. He hit for a low average (.244) and a low On Base Percentage (.305) but his power numbers brought his OPS up to .787, good for a 111 OPS+, a figure that is considered well above average.
But he's barely an adequate third baseman and B-R rated him there with a negative figure of -0.2. That's not terrrible in the grand scheme of things and better than some of his results from years past. Fangraphs rates his defense lower, but his WAR at about the same as B-R. All told, according to Fangraphs, he was worth $7.3 million last year, meaning the Blue Jays got a bargain.
Now that Encarnacion is going to make half of that in 2011, he could be a semi-steal. But you get the sense that the Blue Jays aren't really sold on Encanacion as their third baseman and if they had their druthers, they would put someone else over there. We'll have to see what they end up doing with him and the position. The guess here is that he will get as much playing time as last year.
As for Encarnacion, he'll have to make do with less money and continue his career with the team he is intimately familiar with. Again, this is just a guess, but his market must have been bleak to settle on a contract that is a little more than half of what he made last year and less than 30% of his value as a player. But, that's the way it goes on the fringe and two and a half million is still a nice chunk of change to do something as wonderful as playing baseball at the sport's highest level.
First, he was put on waivers by the Blue Jays after a semi-productive year for the Toronto team in 2010. The Oakland Athletics picked him up off of waivers on November 12. The A's then non-tendered him and he became a free agent on December 2. Exactly two weeks later, the Blue Jays signed him and brought him back to the ball club. That's quite a road trip.
Encarnacio, who made $5,170,000 last year as the Blue Jays' semi-regular third baseman dashed off 21 homers in 2010, a goodly sum in 332 at bats and added to the Blue Jays' record breaking team home run total. He seemed to fit right into the Blue Jays all or nothing style. He hit for a low average (.244) and a low On Base Percentage (.305) but his power numbers brought his OPS up to .787, good for a 111 OPS+, a figure that is considered well above average.
But he's barely an adequate third baseman and B-R rated him there with a negative figure of -0.2. That's not terrrible in the grand scheme of things and better than some of his results from years past. Fangraphs rates his defense lower, but his WAR at about the same as B-R. All told, according to Fangraphs, he was worth $7.3 million last year, meaning the Blue Jays got a bargain.
Now that Encarnacion is going to make half of that in 2011, he could be a semi-steal. But you get the sense that the Blue Jays aren't really sold on Encanacion as their third baseman and if they had their druthers, they would put someone else over there. We'll have to see what they end up doing with him and the position. The guess here is that he will get as much playing time as last year.
As for Encarnacion, he'll have to make do with less money and continue his career with the team he is intimately familiar with. Again, this is just a guess, but his market must have been bleak to settle on a contract that is a little more than half of what he made last year and less than 30% of his value as a player. But, that's the way it goes on the fringe and two and a half million is still a nice chunk of change to do something as wonderful as playing baseball at the sport's highest level.
Tenacious Like Bull - Bob Feller
Have you seen that great commercial with some guy with a Russian accent manning a one-man call center? A guy looking for customer service says he's been waiting for twenty minutes. "Peggy," the guy with the accent, says, "You are tenacious like bull. I like." It's hysterical. But for some reason, when this writer found out that Bob Feller has passed away, that was the first thing that came to mind. Bob Feller was tenacious like bull.
And it wasn't just Feller's baseball career that was tenacious. He was a tenacious fighter in WWII. He was a tenacious self-promoter on barnstorming tours with Satchel Paige and All Stars of both all colors. Feller was tenacious with selling his image with books and autograph signings all over the country. He was also tenacious with his legacy, keeping his career alive for his blazing fastball and legendary triumphs.
There is nothing wrong with those things, of course. Feller was uniquely able to forge an entire lifelong career on Bob Feller. While he was the fastest pitcher on earth, he "raced" his fastball against race horses and sprinters. He made huge amounts of money capitalizing on the drawing power of black players like Satchel Paige, who Feller would pay to barnstorm around the country. Paige made good coin on those exhibitions. His black teammates made less and Feller made tons.
So there is no one way to remember Bob Feller. His tenacity at life built up his legend and capitalized on it. But it was a tenacity that was well earned. His exploits lived up to the hype and self-promotion. He had the goods to back it up. He joined the big leagues at 17 and he was already a legend with giant hands and an even larger right arm. He won 107 games by the time he was 21. And then at the peak of his career, he tossed it aside after hearing that Pearl Harbor had been bombed. Not content with playing baseball for the armed forces and having an easy time of it like many other ball players, Feller wanted in on the thick of it and served as a gunner on a Navy battleship and lost three and a half years to the war. Thankfully he lived through it.
When he returned to the Indians, he was as good or better than ever. His 1946 season was unbelievable. He went 26-15 with an ERA of 2.18 (ERA+ of 151). He pitched in 48 games and accumulated a total of 371,1 innings. Can you imagine!? He struck out 348 batters while only giving up 277 hits, only 11 of them homers. He completed 36 of this games and had ten shutouts. Baseball-reference.com estimates his WAR for that season at 10.1, an almost unthinkable total. Just to put that in a frame of reference, Roy Halladay's season in 2010 came in at a 6.9 WAR.
But the following season, he hurt his knee and lost his fastball. He still won 20 games, but his strikeout total went from 348 to 196 and it would fall every year thereafter. He spent the last eight years of his career recording 4.6 K's per nine or less. But he still had some solid seasons without the big fastball and even won 22 games in 1951 at the age of 32 with only 111 strikeouts for the year. The guy with the biggest fastball on earth learned quickly how to pitch without one.
Feller won 266 games in his career and researchers have estimated that he might have won over 100 more in the time he missed. Plus, he pitched countless innings touring the country on his barnstorm tours. In today's ball game, it's hard to imagine someone throwing that many pitches. He led the league in innings pitched five times. He lead the league in strikeouts seven times.
The Fan would give anything to go back in time to see him pitch. He would have been like Strasburg without the elbow injury. He would have faced Yankee greats from Gehrig to Mantle. He saw it all and his boasts and recollections weren't fables. They weren't because Bob Feller was bigger than life. He was Rapid Robert, the fastest throwing arm of them all. The word, "Legend," is overused. But in Feller, the title seemed too small.
And it wasn't just Feller's baseball career that was tenacious. He was a tenacious fighter in WWII. He was a tenacious self-promoter on barnstorming tours with Satchel Paige and All Stars of both all colors. Feller was tenacious with selling his image with books and autograph signings all over the country. He was also tenacious with his legacy, keeping his career alive for his blazing fastball and legendary triumphs.
There is nothing wrong with those things, of course. Feller was uniquely able to forge an entire lifelong career on Bob Feller. While he was the fastest pitcher on earth, he "raced" his fastball against race horses and sprinters. He made huge amounts of money capitalizing on the drawing power of black players like Satchel Paige, who Feller would pay to barnstorm around the country. Paige made good coin on those exhibitions. His black teammates made less and Feller made tons.
So there is no one way to remember Bob Feller. His tenacity at life built up his legend and capitalized on it. But it was a tenacity that was well earned. His exploits lived up to the hype and self-promotion. He had the goods to back it up. He joined the big leagues at 17 and he was already a legend with giant hands and an even larger right arm. He won 107 games by the time he was 21. And then at the peak of his career, he tossed it aside after hearing that Pearl Harbor had been bombed. Not content with playing baseball for the armed forces and having an easy time of it like many other ball players, Feller wanted in on the thick of it and served as a gunner on a Navy battleship and lost three and a half years to the war. Thankfully he lived through it.
When he returned to the Indians, he was as good or better than ever. His 1946 season was unbelievable. He went 26-15 with an ERA of 2.18 (ERA+ of 151). He pitched in 48 games and accumulated a total of 371,1 innings. Can you imagine!? He struck out 348 batters while only giving up 277 hits, only 11 of them homers. He completed 36 of this games and had ten shutouts. Baseball-reference.com estimates his WAR for that season at 10.1, an almost unthinkable total. Just to put that in a frame of reference, Roy Halladay's season in 2010 came in at a 6.9 WAR.
But the following season, he hurt his knee and lost his fastball. He still won 20 games, but his strikeout total went from 348 to 196 and it would fall every year thereafter. He spent the last eight years of his career recording 4.6 K's per nine or less. But he still had some solid seasons without the big fastball and even won 22 games in 1951 at the age of 32 with only 111 strikeouts for the year. The guy with the biggest fastball on earth learned quickly how to pitch without one.
Feller won 266 games in his career and researchers have estimated that he might have won over 100 more in the time he missed. Plus, he pitched countless innings touring the country on his barnstorm tours. In today's ball game, it's hard to imagine someone throwing that many pitches. He led the league in innings pitched five times. He lead the league in strikeouts seven times.
The Fan would give anything to go back in time to see him pitch. He would have been like Strasburg without the elbow injury. He would have faced Yankee greats from Gehrig to Mantle. He saw it all and his boasts and recollections weren't fables. They weren't because Bob Feller was bigger than life. He was Rapid Robert, the fastest throwing arm of them all. The word, "Legend," is overused. But in Feller, the title seemed too small.
White Sox, Tigers Gaining - Twins Draining
While the White Sox and Tigers continue to improve their ball clubs, the Twins seem to be losing talent and not gaining any. The Twins finished six games in front of the White Sox in 2010 and thirteen games ahead of the Tigers. But (at least on paper) the White Sox have made up those six wins with off season moves while the Tigers have gained ground as well. The Twins strategy so far this off season has been somewhat baffling.
To recap, the Twins have lost Hardy, Crain...Jesse Crain, maybe Pavano and maybe Thome. All they have picked up is perhaps an untested Japanese batting champion. Meanwhile, the White Sox have picked up Adam Dunn, resigned Paul Konerko and the aforementioned Crain. Their only significant loss has been Jenks.
The Tigers meanwhile, have picked up Joaquin Benoit, Victor Martinez and are rumored to have a desire to resign Ordonez. Their only significant loss might be Johnny Damon. The Tigers and White Sox seem committed to spend money to get better and both team's payrolls might hit team records this season.
At the same time, the Twins seem stuck in neutral. They have a burgeoning fan base and attendance, but perhaps because of the money tied up in Joe Mauer, seem less committed to spending any money. They stole Thome last year and will not get the same discount this year, especially after the season he had last year. Carl Pavano is looking for one last paycheck and won't come cheaply. If the Twins were committed to spending what they needed, you would think that Pavano would be signed by now. Their inactivity seems to indicate a lack of desire to meet whatever demands Pavano is making. Plus, there has been no news on Thome.
In fact there has been no Twins' news on anything other than the negotiations with the Japanese infielder they covet. All their eggs are in that basket now that Hardy was dispatched. They have little choice but to sign the guy. And again, they are taking a huge risk with that being their only big off season play. Many scouts aren't very high on this kid from Japan. But the Twins have always been smart on personnel issues and have remained competitive without ever making many off season moves.
History begs us to trust the Twins with what they are doing. Their track record is just too strong. But as an outside observer, it may appear as if the Twins are this year's Angels and could be passed by more aggressive pursuers.
To recap, the Twins have lost Hardy, Crain...Jesse Crain, maybe Pavano and maybe Thome. All they have picked up is perhaps an untested Japanese batting champion. Meanwhile, the White Sox have picked up Adam Dunn, resigned Paul Konerko and the aforementioned Crain. Their only significant loss has been Jenks.
The Tigers meanwhile, have picked up Joaquin Benoit, Victor Martinez and are rumored to have a desire to resign Ordonez. Their only significant loss might be Johnny Damon. The Tigers and White Sox seem committed to spend money to get better and both team's payrolls might hit team records this season.
At the same time, the Twins seem stuck in neutral. They have a burgeoning fan base and attendance, but perhaps because of the money tied up in Joe Mauer, seem less committed to spending any money. They stole Thome last year and will not get the same discount this year, especially after the season he had last year. Carl Pavano is looking for one last paycheck and won't come cheaply. If the Twins were committed to spending what they needed, you would think that Pavano would be signed by now. Their inactivity seems to indicate a lack of desire to meet whatever demands Pavano is making. Plus, there has been no news on Thome.
In fact there has been no Twins' news on anything other than the negotiations with the Japanese infielder they covet. All their eggs are in that basket now that Hardy was dispatched. They have little choice but to sign the guy. And again, they are taking a huge risk with that being their only big off season play. Many scouts aren't very high on this kid from Japan. But the Twins have always been smart on personnel issues and have remained competitive without ever making many off season moves.
History begs us to trust the Twins with what they are doing. Their track record is just too strong. But as an outside observer, it may appear as if the Twins are this year's Angels and could be passed by more aggressive pursuers.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Still Quiet on the Adrian Beltre Front
As the only high ceiling free agent left on the market (with all due respect for Mr. Pavano), things have been oddly quiet concerning Adrian Beltre. After making yet another run on all of the big sports sites, there is nary a rumor to be found. You would think that his agent would at least be planting news out there once in a while.
We know that Beltre turned down a four year deal from the Red Sox (or at least that's what we've been told). So perhaps Beltre has misunderstood his market value. Earlier news entries indicated he wanted to play for the Red Sox, but his refusal to sign that deal ended that route for him. That might have been a miscalculation. So now the question is whether or not there are any teams out there that are willing to go anywhere near what the Red Sox were offering.
Of course everyone thinks of the Angels. The Angels lost out on Carl Crawford. Everyone seems to think they need to make a statement signing. Statement signings are fictional creatures. Teams make moves based on what they think will best help their teams win. That's why all this baloney about Brian Cashman in panic mode is so obsurd. Cashman has never been in panic mode. But the Yankees don't need Beltre. They already have their third baseman for another fifty or so years, right?
So where else could he land? There are a couple of things we can assume. The first is that Beltre will not want to sign with any team that has an unfriendly hitting park. He had enough of that in Seattle. Therefore, it is doubtful he would want to go to the Giants or the Padres. Secondly, he would most likely want to go with a team he thought had a chance to win. Beltre already jilted the A's, so you get the opinion that he doesn't think the A's will be competitive.
So where does that leave us?
NL West
Dodgers - Have an aging Casey Blake. But not much money to spend. Plus, that's a tough ballpark for a hitter. Beltre's already played there.
Giants - Pablo has to lose weight, but he's their third baseman.
Padres - All set at the moment at third.
Rockies - They will stick with Ian Stewart because he is young and cheap. If he fails to come on, they have other alternatives.
Diamondbacks - They just signed Melvin Mora, but Mora can go to utility. Imagine Beltre and Drew in the same infield. Slick... But Beltre will probably not want to go to a team in transition.
NL Central
Cubs - The Cubs are stuck with Aramis Ramirez for a gazillion dollars.
Reds - Scott Rolen
Cardinals - Hoping that Freese comes back. Saving all their money for Pujols.
Astros - Good hitters park for a right-handed batter. But they will go with Chris Johnson.
Pirates - Pedro Alvarez
NL East
Mets - David Wright
Phillies - Placido Polanco. But Polanco is best as a utility guy. Great hitters' park. But do the Phillies have any money left?
Braves - Will hold the spot for Chipper Jones.
Nationals - Some guy named Zimmerman plays there.
Marlins - No. Beltre would never sign with the Marlins. Cheap. Bad hitter's ballpark.
AL East
Red Sox - Already out
Yankees - A-Rod
Orioles - They've already signed Mark Reynolds.
Tampa - Doesn't have the money.
Blue Jays - Nice ballpark to hit. But can't picture Beltre going there. They could use him though.
AL Central
White Sox - They would be a good fit. They could certainly use a third baseman.
Indians - No way. No money.
Tigers - They signed Inge. Have no idea what they see in him. But however...
Royals - Beltre wouldn't go there.
Twins - They have a great young kid who will play there for years.
AL West
Athletics - He already turned them down.
Rangers - They have Young
Angels - Great fit.
Mariners - You can't go home again.
As you can see, it's a smaller market than you'd think. That being the case, Beltre's bargaining position can't be perfect. He might end up settling for less than what the Red Sox offered him. Perhaps the quiet is his hoping for a better offer. Perhaps the Fan is all wet and a deal is being hammered out as we speak. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.
We know that Beltre turned down a four year deal from the Red Sox (or at least that's what we've been told). So perhaps Beltre has misunderstood his market value. Earlier news entries indicated he wanted to play for the Red Sox, but his refusal to sign that deal ended that route for him. That might have been a miscalculation. So now the question is whether or not there are any teams out there that are willing to go anywhere near what the Red Sox were offering.
Of course everyone thinks of the Angels. The Angels lost out on Carl Crawford. Everyone seems to think they need to make a statement signing. Statement signings are fictional creatures. Teams make moves based on what they think will best help their teams win. That's why all this baloney about Brian Cashman in panic mode is so obsurd. Cashman has never been in panic mode. But the Yankees don't need Beltre. They already have their third baseman for another fifty or so years, right?
So where else could he land? There are a couple of things we can assume. The first is that Beltre will not want to sign with any team that has an unfriendly hitting park. He had enough of that in Seattle. Therefore, it is doubtful he would want to go to the Giants or the Padres. Secondly, he would most likely want to go with a team he thought had a chance to win. Beltre already jilted the A's, so you get the opinion that he doesn't think the A's will be competitive.
So where does that leave us?
NL West
Dodgers - Have an aging Casey Blake. But not much money to spend. Plus, that's a tough ballpark for a hitter. Beltre's already played there.
Giants - Pablo has to lose weight, but he's their third baseman.
Padres - All set at the moment at third.
Rockies - They will stick with Ian Stewart because he is young and cheap. If he fails to come on, they have other alternatives.
Diamondbacks - They just signed Melvin Mora, but Mora can go to utility. Imagine Beltre and Drew in the same infield. Slick... But Beltre will probably not want to go to a team in transition.
NL Central
Cubs - The Cubs are stuck with Aramis Ramirez for a gazillion dollars.
Reds - Scott Rolen
Cardinals - Hoping that Freese comes back. Saving all their money for Pujols.
Astros - Good hitters park for a right-handed batter. But they will go with Chris Johnson.
Pirates - Pedro Alvarez
NL East
Mets - David Wright
Phillies - Placido Polanco. But Polanco is best as a utility guy. Great hitters' park. But do the Phillies have any money left?
Braves - Will hold the spot for Chipper Jones.
Nationals - Some guy named Zimmerman plays there.
Marlins - No. Beltre would never sign with the Marlins. Cheap. Bad hitter's ballpark.
AL East
Red Sox - Already out
Yankees - A-Rod
Orioles - They've already signed Mark Reynolds.
Tampa - Doesn't have the money.
Blue Jays - Nice ballpark to hit. But can't picture Beltre going there. They could use him though.
AL Central
White Sox - They would be a good fit. They could certainly use a third baseman.
Indians - No way. No money.
Tigers - They signed Inge. Have no idea what they see in him. But however...
Royals - Beltre wouldn't go there.
Twins - They have a great young kid who will play there for years.
AL West
Athletics - He already turned them down.
Rangers - They have Young
Angels - Great fit.
Mariners - You can't go home again.
As you can see, it's a smaller market than you'd think. That being the case, Beltre's bargaining position can't be perfect. He might end up settling for less than what the Red Sox offered him. Perhaps the quiet is his hoping for a better offer. Perhaps the Fan is all wet and a deal is being hammered out as we speak. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.
A Non-Voter's Hall of Fame Vote
The closest this writer gets to having a Hall of Fame vote is to participate in the Baseball Bloggers Alliance "recommendation" vote. But, since the ballots are due to be turned in by December 31, and since this Fan has a fifty year vested interest in MLB, you get the Fan's vote anyway. In many ways, this Fan feels just as competent to make such a vote as some of the "baseball writers" that make up the privileged who get to send in their official ballot.
The easiest way to do this is to give a brief listing of each of the 33 names on the ballot to at least give each of the 33 players a day in the sun. For some, this will be as good as it gets as they will vanish from future consideration after a year. For others, this may be the year they get in. And for still others, this will be one more year or the first year of multi-year consideration that may or may not lead to a final accumulation of enough votes to get into the cherished Hall of Fame.
First, there has to be a bit of discussion on the PED issues involved with some of the players. The Fan's feeling is that there is some bump in performance for those who used. But in an era that featured such wide-spread abuse, some of these players were still among the best of their era. And since it is already impossible to compare players from differing eras, all you can do is vote for the best players of their particular time they played. Did Mark McGwire use? Well, yeah, he said he did. But did any other users hit 70 homers? Of course, this is still a lightning rod conversation that will be years in discussion. But the Fan has already made a stand here. The Fan can't use a crystal ball to know who used and who didn't. Palmeiro did. He got caught. But did Jeff Bagwell? Who knows. And how can you know? So the speculation is ignored. The vote is based on whether the players on the ballot were worthy due to performance in the day and age they played.
Whew! All that said, here is is the Fan's 2010 Hall of Fame ballot:
Roberto Alomar - Yes! Absolutely no question in this Fan's mind that Alomar was the class second baseman of his era. A career .300 hitter with a career .371 OBP, 474 stolen bases with an 81% success rate, over 1500 runs scored and over 1100 RBIs, over 2700 hits. Plus, he was the most fun second baseman to watch ever. Despite some off the field problems (to say the least) and the spitting thing, Alomar is a slam dunk. Plus, he batted over .300 in post season games with 33 RBI in just 58 post season games.
Carlos Baerga - No. Will fall off the ballot after one year. Baerga had two spectacular years early in his career with Cleveland, but thereafter, settled into a useful, if not spectacular career.
Jeff Bagwell - Yes. Though short of some famous counting stats like 3000 hits and 500 homers, Bagwell had a great career with an accumulation of 79.9 WAR. He drove in over 1500 runs and scored over 1500 runs. His career slash line: .297/.408/.540 speak of marvelous consistency despite playing several years with a bad wing. He had 969 extra base hits plus 202 stolen bases. He was a good fielding first baseman too. Bagwell deserves to be included.
Harold Baines - No. Baines is in the Hall of Very Good. Baines had 2866 hits spread out over a 22 year career, but they all added up to a total accumulation of WAR to 37. He was a very good hitter for a very long time, accumulating a 120 lifetime OPS+. He just wasn't special enough to get into the Hall of Fame.
Bert Blyleven - Yes! Please! The Fan has already written about this ad nauseum. 287 wins, 3.31 ERA, 3701 strikeouts. 1.198 career WHIP, 242 complete games and 60 career shutouts. His 90.1 career WAR says enough to end the conversation. Enough is enough. Get him in there!
Bret Boone - No. One magical season isn't enough to put him into consideration. Only 21.4 WAR accumulated. Just not enough to even consider. Falls off ballot after one year.
Kevin Brown - No. Brown is an interesting discussion. With 211 wins and a .594 lifetime winning percentage, Brown finished in the top ten in Cy Young Award voting six times. He led the league in WHIP twice, led the league in ERA twice and had a lifetime 2.64 K/BB ratio. He is marginal. Put him in the same category as Ron Guidry. If one gets in, the other should. Stays on the ballot a while.
John Franco - No. Franco is definitely in the Hall of Very Good. 1119 appearances, all in relief. Pitched 21 effective seasons and ended up with 424 Saves. His 2.89 career ERA is very good, but a 138 career ERA+ is just not high enough for a relief pitcher. His 25.8 career WAR is half of Mariano Rivera's for example.
Juan Gonzalez - No. Gonzales might be the only two time MVP who does not make it ot the Hall of Fame. Only posted a career WAR of 33.5 despite some monster years. Gonzalez was the king of the undependable. He would show up for some years and simply tear the cover off the ball. They he would disappear. He had the hitting talent of A-Rod, but not the discipline.
Marquis Grissom - No. Played 17 seasons and stole 429 bases with a very good success rate. But he just wasn't good enough at getting on base. His .318 career OBP is disappointing considering what he could have done with his career with a better knack for getting on base. Over 2200 hits but no, he's not getting in. Probably off the ballot after one year.
Lenny Harris - No. If you opened the dictionary to find the definition of utility player, Lenny Harris would have his picture in there. Played eight different positions and despite playing 18 seasons, only accumulated 1055 hits. His WAR for his career is a negative number. He'll have to be content with the over $11 million he made in his career because Lenny Harris is the anti-Hall of Fame player.
Bobby Higginson - No. This Detroit favorite had three very good years for the Tigers early in his brief 11 year career. But he couldn't sustain it. A good and useful player. Will fall off the ballot after one year.
Charles Johnson - No. This catcher from Fort Pierce, Florida always seemed like he would become an All Star catcher. But despite a few good years, never could put it together for any length of time. Bounced around from team to team, he didn't even accumulate 1000 hits despite playing 12 seasons. Off the ballot after one year.
Barry Larkin - Yes. Some players you have to consider the position they played. Most of Larkin's numbers fall short of most Hall of Fame players, but he was a shortstop and for his era, was one of the best. His 68.9 WAR speaks highly of his productivity both at the plate and at short. He was a 12 time All Star and won an MVP award. Lost a lot of playing time due to injury.
Al Leiter - No. Another Hall of Very Good player. Won 162 games in his 19 year career. But doesn't have the counting stats in any category to be considered at all for the Hall of Fame. The only thing he ever led the league in was walks and wild pitches. Good guy. Fun guy. No on the Hall of Fame. Did you know that his given name is Alois?
Edgar Martinez - Yes. If they name a post season award after a guy, you have to put him in the Hall of Fame, right? The Edgar Martinez Award goes to the top DH each year. Named after the best DH of all time, Edgar Martinez should be a shoo in. Played in 18 seasons but only 13 of them were full seasons. Career slash line: .312/.418/.515. Amazing. 67.6 WAR accumulated. Martinez is short in all the counting stats that everybody llikes, but he should be in the Hall of Fame.
Tino Martinez - No. Hall of Very Good, but not the HOF. Bamtino played 16 seasons and had one great one and 15 productive ones. He was a good player and a beloved teammate. But he just isn't good enough for the Hall of Fame.
Don Mattingly - No. It kills the Fan to say no on Donnie Baseball. He was fantastic for four or five years and then after back troubles, was just ordinary. He just wasn't good enough for long enough to get consideration here. Maybe he'll have a long and successful managing career and get in that way.
Fred McGriff - No. One of the worst trades ever for the Yankees as they traded this young prospect to the Blue Jays for the immortal Tom Dodd and Dale Murray. He helped the Blue Jays to two World Series titles. McGriff is just on the cusp of being good enough to get in. 493 career homers and a 134 OPS+ show that he was a very good hitter for a very long time. He drove in over 1500 runs in his career. The problem the Fan has is that his career WAR only comes to 50.5. It's right on the edge. If McGriff did get in the HOF, the Fan wouldn't complain. But he is marginal. The "Crime Dog" though is a Hall of Fame caliber nickname.
Mark McGwire - Yes. Have gone on record a number of times on this one. 63.1 career WAR. 583 homers and despite the PED case, he was a product of his times and saved baseball after the strike years.
Raul Mondesi - No. Oh please. There is a strong temptation to grind him on moral issues, but the Fan swore off of those kinds of things. The thing that seems evident here is that he was the Rookie of the Year for the Dodgers, made the All Star game his second full year along with a Gold Glove but as soon as he started big money, his career tanked. One of the standard bearers for the Yankee years when they overpaid anyone who seemed to have a big name. Less than 25 career WAR despite such a strong start.
Jack Morris - No. Hall of Very Good. 254 career wins. A workhorse. World Series hero. No doubts there. But his 39.3 career WAR leaves this voter cold.
Dale Murphy - No. In the same category as Don Mattingly. For a while, Murphy was one of the best players in the game. But he didn't sustain it long enough and his career fell off a cliff at a young age. A real downer because he's one of the best people to ever play the game. 44.2 career WAR just isn't high enough to merit consideration. Another two time MVP who will not be in the HOF.
John Olerud - No. Olerud had two super, fantastic seasons and the rest were all productive. Great on base guy. One of the best fielding first baseman ever. But, unfortunately, he's in the Hall of Very Good and not going to be in the Hall of Fame. 56.8 career WAR though makes him a better player than McGriff. One of the Fan's all time favorite players. A real winner who helped the Blue Jays and the Mets to titles.
Rafael Palmeiro - Yes. Will not get in because he is a PED poster boy, but how can you argue with 3000 hits and 1800+ RBIs?
Dave Parker - No. The Cobra won an MVP and two batting titles, but due to injuries and other reasons, just didn't have enough productive seasons. A 37.8 career WAR just isn't good enough. A very good player for several years. It just isn't enough.
Tim Raines - Yes. Lost a couple of his best years to strikes but next to Rickey Henderson, was the best lead off batter of his time. .385 career OBP, over 800 steals with a phenomenal success rate, 64.6 career WAR all add up to give Raines the counting stats he needs to get into the Hall of Fame. Yeah, there was the cocaine thing. But Raines is a Hall of Fame player.
Kirk Rueter - No. Rueter was a useful pitcher that went 130-92 in his big league career. A contact pitcher, he just was good enough to be helpful to the Giants for many years, but not good enough to ever be considered one of the top 20 pitchers in the league. Drops off after one year.
Benito Santiago - No. Santiago caught for parts of 20 seasons and in all that time, accumulated only 23.8 WAR. Enough said.
Lee Smith - No. 478 Saves and left as the career leader when he retired. But his 132 ERA+ is not good enough, nor is is 30.3 career WAR. Hall of Very Good perhaps.
B. J. Surhoff - No. If you just thought of his as a catcher, you might consider his career numbers. But he played more games in the outfield than he did behind the plate. A good player for an awfully long time, Surhoff was just not good enough to get into the Hall of Fame.
Alan Trammell - Yes. For the same reasons that Barry Larkin deserves to go into the HOF. Trammell was a shortstop who compiled a career WAR of 66.9 despite not having the counting stats most people want for a Hall of Fame player. He was one of the best of his times and he was very good for a long, long time. 7.5 career WAR for his fielding too. Slick. Professional. HOF.
Larry Walker - No. [[sigh]] Walker won three batting titles. He finished with a career OPS+ of 140. His WAR built up to 67.3. He was a great outfielder with 48 career assists. But the Fan just can't get away from Coors Field and the career splits. He hit .340 at home but .270 on the road. His OPS was 1.068 at home versus .865 on the road. If you add this up to his somewhat short career and lack of counting stats, it just isn't enough to make a HOF case. Alas. He sure was fun to watch.
The easiest way to do this is to give a brief listing of each of the 33 names on the ballot to at least give each of the 33 players a day in the sun. For some, this will be as good as it gets as they will vanish from future consideration after a year. For others, this may be the year they get in. And for still others, this will be one more year or the first year of multi-year consideration that may or may not lead to a final accumulation of enough votes to get into the cherished Hall of Fame.
First, there has to be a bit of discussion on the PED issues involved with some of the players. The Fan's feeling is that there is some bump in performance for those who used. But in an era that featured such wide-spread abuse, some of these players were still among the best of their era. And since it is already impossible to compare players from differing eras, all you can do is vote for the best players of their particular time they played. Did Mark McGwire use? Well, yeah, he said he did. But did any other users hit 70 homers? Of course, this is still a lightning rod conversation that will be years in discussion. But the Fan has already made a stand here. The Fan can't use a crystal ball to know who used and who didn't. Palmeiro did. He got caught. But did Jeff Bagwell? Who knows. And how can you know? So the speculation is ignored. The vote is based on whether the players on the ballot were worthy due to performance in the day and age they played.
Whew! All that said, here is is the Fan's 2010 Hall of Fame ballot:
Roberto Alomar - Yes! Absolutely no question in this Fan's mind that Alomar was the class second baseman of his era. A career .300 hitter with a career .371 OBP, 474 stolen bases with an 81% success rate, over 1500 runs scored and over 1100 RBIs, over 2700 hits. Plus, he was the most fun second baseman to watch ever. Despite some off the field problems (to say the least) and the spitting thing, Alomar is a slam dunk. Plus, he batted over .300 in post season games with 33 RBI in just 58 post season games.
Carlos Baerga - No. Will fall off the ballot after one year. Baerga had two spectacular years early in his career with Cleveland, but thereafter, settled into a useful, if not spectacular career.
Jeff Bagwell - Yes. Though short of some famous counting stats like 3000 hits and 500 homers, Bagwell had a great career with an accumulation of 79.9 WAR. He drove in over 1500 runs and scored over 1500 runs. His career slash line: .297/.408/.540 speak of marvelous consistency despite playing several years with a bad wing. He had 969 extra base hits plus 202 stolen bases. He was a good fielding first baseman too. Bagwell deserves to be included.
Harold Baines - No. Baines is in the Hall of Very Good. Baines had 2866 hits spread out over a 22 year career, but they all added up to a total accumulation of WAR to 37. He was a very good hitter for a very long time, accumulating a 120 lifetime OPS+. He just wasn't special enough to get into the Hall of Fame.
Bert Blyleven - Yes! Please! The Fan has already written about this ad nauseum. 287 wins, 3.31 ERA, 3701 strikeouts. 1.198 career WHIP, 242 complete games and 60 career shutouts. His 90.1 career WAR says enough to end the conversation. Enough is enough. Get him in there!
Bret Boone - No. One magical season isn't enough to put him into consideration. Only 21.4 WAR accumulated. Just not enough to even consider. Falls off ballot after one year.
Kevin Brown - No. Brown is an interesting discussion. With 211 wins and a .594 lifetime winning percentage, Brown finished in the top ten in Cy Young Award voting six times. He led the league in WHIP twice, led the league in ERA twice and had a lifetime 2.64 K/BB ratio. He is marginal. Put him in the same category as Ron Guidry. If one gets in, the other should. Stays on the ballot a while.
John Franco - No. Franco is definitely in the Hall of Very Good. 1119 appearances, all in relief. Pitched 21 effective seasons and ended up with 424 Saves. His 2.89 career ERA is very good, but a 138 career ERA+ is just not high enough for a relief pitcher. His 25.8 career WAR is half of Mariano Rivera's for example.
Juan Gonzalez - No. Gonzales might be the only two time MVP who does not make it ot the Hall of Fame. Only posted a career WAR of 33.5 despite some monster years. Gonzalez was the king of the undependable. He would show up for some years and simply tear the cover off the ball. They he would disappear. He had the hitting talent of A-Rod, but not the discipline.
Marquis Grissom - No. Played 17 seasons and stole 429 bases with a very good success rate. But he just wasn't good enough at getting on base. His .318 career OBP is disappointing considering what he could have done with his career with a better knack for getting on base. Over 2200 hits but no, he's not getting in. Probably off the ballot after one year.
Lenny Harris - No. If you opened the dictionary to find the definition of utility player, Lenny Harris would have his picture in there. Played eight different positions and despite playing 18 seasons, only accumulated 1055 hits. His WAR for his career is a negative number. He'll have to be content with the over $11 million he made in his career because Lenny Harris is the anti-Hall of Fame player.
Bobby Higginson - No. This Detroit favorite had three very good years for the Tigers early in his brief 11 year career. But he couldn't sustain it. A good and useful player. Will fall off the ballot after one year.
Charles Johnson - No. This catcher from Fort Pierce, Florida always seemed like he would become an All Star catcher. But despite a few good years, never could put it together for any length of time. Bounced around from team to team, he didn't even accumulate 1000 hits despite playing 12 seasons. Off the ballot after one year.
Barry Larkin - Yes. Some players you have to consider the position they played. Most of Larkin's numbers fall short of most Hall of Fame players, but he was a shortstop and for his era, was one of the best. His 68.9 WAR speaks highly of his productivity both at the plate and at short. He was a 12 time All Star and won an MVP award. Lost a lot of playing time due to injury.
Al Leiter - No. Another Hall of Very Good player. Won 162 games in his 19 year career. But doesn't have the counting stats in any category to be considered at all for the Hall of Fame. The only thing he ever led the league in was walks and wild pitches. Good guy. Fun guy. No on the Hall of Fame. Did you know that his given name is Alois?
Edgar Martinez - Yes. If they name a post season award after a guy, you have to put him in the Hall of Fame, right? The Edgar Martinez Award goes to the top DH each year. Named after the best DH of all time, Edgar Martinez should be a shoo in. Played in 18 seasons but only 13 of them were full seasons. Career slash line: .312/.418/.515. Amazing. 67.6 WAR accumulated. Martinez is short in all the counting stats that everybody llikes, but he should be in the Hall of Fame.
Tino Martinez - No. Hall of Very Good, but not the HOF. Bamtino played 16 seasons and had one great one and 15 productive ones. He was a good player and a beloved teammate. But he just isn't good enough for the Hall of Fame.
Don Mattingly - No. It kills the Fan to say no on Donnie Baseball. He was fantastic for four or five years and then after back troubles, was just ordinary. He just wasn't good enough for long enough to get consideration here. Maybe he'll have a long and successful managing career and get in that way.
Fred McGriff - No. One of the worst trades ever for the Yankees as they traded this young prospect to the Blue Jays for the immortal Tom Dodd and Dale Murray. He helped the Blue Jays to two World Series titles. McGriff is just on the cusp of being good enough to get in. 493 career homers and a 134 OPS+ show that he was a very good hitter for a very long time. He drove in over 1500 runs in his career. The problem the Fan has is that his career WAR only comes to 50.5. It's right on the edge. If McGriff did get in the HOF, the Fan wouldn't complain. But he is marginal. The "Crime Dog" though is a Hall of Fame caliber nickname.
Mark McGwire - Yes. Have gone on record a number of times on this one. 63.1 career WAR. 583 homers and despite the PED case, he was a product of his times and saved baseball after the strike years.
Raul Mondesi - No. Oh please. There is a strong temptation to grind him on moral issues, but the Fan swore off of those kinds of things. The thing that seems evident here is that he was the Rookie of the Year for the Dodgers, made the All Star game his second full year along with a Gold Glove but as soon as he started big money, his career tanked. One of the standard bearers for the Yankee years when they overpaid anyone who seemed to have a big name. Less than 25 career WAR despite such a strong start.
Jack Morris - No. Hall of Very Good. 254 career wins. A workhorse. World Series hero. No doubts there. But his 39.3 career WAR leaves this voter cold.
Dale Murphy - No. In the same category as Don Mattingly. For a while, Murphy was one of the best players in the game. But he didn't sustain it long enough and his career fell off a cliff at a young age. A real downer because he's one of the best people to ever play the game. 44.2 career WAR just isn't high enough to merit consideration. Another two time MVP who will not be in the HOF.
John Olerud - No. Olerud had two super, fantastic seasons and the rest were all productive. Great on base guy. One of the best fielding first baseman ever. But, unfortunately, he's in the Hall of Very Good and not going to be in the Hall of Fame. 56.8 career WAR though makes him a better player than McGriff. One of the Fan's all time favorite players. A real winner who helped the Blue Jays and the Mets to titles.
Rafael Palmeiro - Yes. Will not get in because he is a PED poster boy, but how can you argue with 3000 hits and 1800+ RBIs?
Dave Parker - No. The Cobra won an MVP and two batting titles, but due to injuries and other reasons, just didn't have enough productive seasons. A 37.8 career WAR just isn't good enough. A very good player for several years. It just isn't enough.
Tim Raines - Yes. Lost a couple of his best years to strikes but next to Rickey Henderson, was the best lead off batter of his time. .385 career OBP, over 800 steals with a phenomenal success rate, 64.6 career WAR all add up to give Raines the counting stats he needs to get into the Hall of Fame. Yeah, there was the cocaine thing. But Raines is a Hall of Fame player.
Kirk Rueter - No. Rueter was a useful pitcher that went 130-92 in his big league career. A contact pitcher, he just was good enough to be helpful to the Giants for many years, but not good enough to ever be considered one of the top 20 pitchers in the league. Drops off after one year.
Benito Santiago - No. Santiago caught for parts of 20 seasons and in all that time, accumulated only 23.8 WAR. Enough said.
Lee Smith - No. 478 Saves and left as the career leader when he retired. But his 132 ERA+ is not good enough, nor is is 30.3 career WAR. Hall of Very Good perhaps.
B. J. Surhoff - No. If you just thought of his as a catcher, you might consider his career numbers. But he played more games in the outfield than he did behind the plate. A good player for an awfully long time, Surhoff was just not good enough to get into the Hall of Fame.
Alan Trammell - Yes. For the same reasons that Barry Larkin deserves to go into the HOF. Trammell was a shortstop who compiled a career WAR of 66.9 despite not having the counting stats most people want for a Hall of Fame player. He was one of the best of his times and he was very good for a long, long time. 7.5 career WAR for his fielding too. Slick. Professional. HOF.
Larry Walker - No. [[sigh]] Walker won three batting titles. He finished with a career OPS+ of 140. His WAR built up to 67.3. He was a great outfielder with 48 career assists. But the Fan just can't get away from Coors Field and the career splits. He hit .340 at home but .270 on the road. His OPS was 1.068 at home versus .865 on the road. If you add this up to his somewhat short career and lack of counting stats, it just isn't enough to make a HOF case. Alas. He sure was fun to watch.
Matt Diaz Another Solid Addition for Pirates
Yesterday was a good day for the Pirates. They picked up Lyle Overbay to upgrade their first base position and then signed Matt Diaz to a two year, low-pay, low-risk contract. Diaz, 32, has played the last several seasons for the Braves with mixed results. However, his lifetime results in mostly part time duty, show a solid player who does a nice job in the outfield.
Diaz, whose career slash line read solidly at: .301/.350/.456, had an off year in 2010, which can partly be explained by a low average on balls hit in play. He will likely platoon with Garrett Jones (the former first baseman) in right field and play against left-handers. Jones has better power numbers, but this Fan believes Diaz would be more valuable with more playing time than Jones. But with there being more right-handed pitchers in baseball than lefties, Jones will get more playing time. If Jones gets off to a slow start, Diaz can be inserted more frequently.
Diaz is a solid outfielder but has a minus arm and is better suited for left field than right, where his arm will be a liability. Jose Tabata, who had a nice debut season last year is penciled in to play left, but he played right field in the minors and it might behoove the Pirates to move Tabata to right and have the platoon of Diaz and Jones in left. Left field is Diaz's best position anyway.
In any case, it is encouraging to see the Pirates hire some solid ball players. Are they the best or most expensive? No and no. But they are solid major league players that should help them instead of hurt them. That alone would be a nice change in direction.
Diaz, whose career slash line read solidly at: .301/.350/.456, had an off year in 2010, which can partly be explained by a low average on balls hit in play. He will likely platoon with Garrett Jones (the former first baseman) in right field and play against left-handers. Jones has better power numbers, but this Fan believes Diaz would be more valuable with more playing time than Jones. But with there being more right-handed pitchers in baseball than lefties, Jones will get more playing time. If Jones gets off to a slow start, Diaz can be inserted more frequently.
Diaz is a solid outfielder but has a minus arm and is better suited for left field than right, where his arm will be a liability. Jose Tabata, who had a nice debut season last year is penciled in to play left, but he played right field in the minors and it might behoove the Pirates to move Tabata to right and have the platoon of Diaz and Jones in left. Left field is Diaz's best position anyway.
In any case, it is encouraging to see the Pirates hire some solid ball players. Are they the best or most expensive? No and no. But they are solid major league players that should help them instead of hurt them. That alone would be a nice change in direction.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Overbay a Nice Choice By the Pirates
Lyle Overbay was picked up by the Pirates today and he's a fine choice for where that team is right now. He is easily a three to four win upgrade over Garrett Jones both at the plate and at first base. Overbay has been a consistent doubles hitter with good patience at the plate and will give the Pirates 18 to 25 homers as well. The terms hadn't been announced last this Fan heard, but considering the market for first baseman, it couldn't have been that high.
Overbay will be a great veteran presence on a team full of youngsters. And his glove work at first should save Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker and Ronny Cedeno some errors that Jones couldn't give them. Overbay had sort of a down year for the Blue Jays and was still worth $6.1 million to that team. Some of his peripherals are a concern. His line drive percentage was the lowest of his career in 2010 (by a pretty good percentage too) and thus his BABIP was a low .285. He hit more ground balls than usual. He is much less successful against lefties than right-handed pitchers and he had a pretty circumspect road/home split with much more success at home.
But he's far better than Jones or Clement or anyone else the Pirates could have put out there. A good glove man at first is vastly underrated and even if Overbay has his average year, that will be a huge upgrade. To be sure, this space has knocked Overbay quite a bit on occasion. And in hindsight, the Fan was short sighted on his value because of his fielding. Overbay isn't going to be the best first baseman in the National League, but he's going to be better than many and he improves the Pirates immediately.
Overbay will be a great veteran presence on a team full of youngsters. And his glove work at first should save Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker and Ronny Cedeno some errors that Jones couldn't give them. Overbay had sort of a down year for the Blue Jays and was still worth $6.1 million to that team. Some of his peripherals are a concern. His line drive percentage was the lowest of his career in 2010 (by a pretty good percentage too) and thus his BABIP was a low .285. He hit more ground balls than usual. He is much less successful against lefties than right-handed pitchers and he had a pretty circumspect road/home split with much more success at home.
But he's far better than Jones or Clement or anyone else the Pirates could have put out there. A good glove man at first is vastly underrated and even if Overbay has his average year, that will be a huge upgrade. To be sure, this space has knocked Overbay quite a bit on occasion. And in hindsight, the Fan was short sighted on his value because of his fielding. Overbay isn't going to be the best first baseman in the National League, but he's going to be better than many and he improves the Pirates immediately.
Godzilla Dragging His Tail Around
It has been a sad sight the last two years watching Hideki Matsui shop himself around for a major league gig. After almost single-handedly destroying the Phillies in the 2009 World Series, the Yankees declined to offer him a contract. Matsui eventually signed with the Angels, had a decent year and found himself without a job again. Now it is being reported by ESPN.com that Matsui has reached an agreement to play for the Oakland Athletics.
The Fan promised himself that he wouldn't make value statements based on a player's personality because of lack of information. This writer doesn't have first hand access to the people written about. But simply observing Matsui over the years, he comports himself with almost a regal yet humble air. He carries himself with a lot of pride. And why shouldn't he? He was one of the biggest heroes in Japan before he came over to play for the Yankees. And by all accounts, the Yankees were a dream come true to the Japanese slugger. From what this Fan can remember, the Yankees were the only American team that Matsui wanted to play for.
And play for them he did. His steady presence and timely hitting have lead to a career 123 OPS+. He was never very good as a left fielder but once he blew out his knee, he was a very good Designated Hitter. In that capacity, he had a higher WAR than David Ortiz in 2009 with the Yankees. He quietly put up another solid season with the Angels last year. His 124 OPS+ was dead on for his career numbers. And he won that World Series game. Which brings the Fan to another point.
Most of the baseball world now measures players by wins. Even the W in WAR stands for "Wins." But for the Yankees, Wins Above Replacement really should be called World Series Wins Above Replacement (or WWWAR). Because as everyone knows, if the Yankees don't win a World Series, the season was a failure. So basically, the Yankees paid $200 million for four World Series wins in 2009. If that is the case and Matsui won the last game with his heroics, then you could say his game against the Phillies was worth $50 or one quarter of the payroll. Well, of course you'd have to whittle that down a bit for pitching and playing the field and all that, but if you boil it all down, Matsui's game may have been worth the $13 million the Yankees paid for him in 2009.
But the Yankees wouldn't pay for him in 2010. And the reality is that the move made sense based on Matsui's age and health. But his season for the Angels last year was worth far more than anything the Yankees put out there as a DH. But again, the Angels, a team that didn't hit last year except for Hunter and Matsui, did the same thing the Yankees did and let him walk. As a DH, Matsui should have one more good year in him. But he had to skulk around for a job which has to be hard for a once proud Japanese player who represented the best of that country's baseball.
It's sad really. But if Matsui can make it work and be productive, then more power to him and the Athletics hope he will stabilize their line up a little bit after playing DH tiddly winks last year. Matsui should enjoy playing for a city that has a large oriental population who will no doubt adopt Matsui as oof their own. But it just won't seem right seeing him in an Oakland uniform. When Matsui takes his baseball hat off and lets his jet black hair spill down, that cap should be a Yankee cap. But the world moves on and not everyone can be Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.
The Fan promised himself that he wouldn't make value statements based on a player's personality because of lack of information. This writer doesn't have first hand access to the people written about. But simply observing Matsui over the years, he comports himself with almost a regal yet humble air. He carries himself with a lot of pride. And why shouldn't he? He was one of the biggest heroes in Japan before he came over to play for the Yankees. And by all accounts, the Yankees were a dream come true to the Japanese slugger. From what this Fan can remember, the Yankees were the only American team that Matsui wanted to play for.
And play for them he did. His steady presence and timely hitting have lead to a career 123 OPS+. He was never very good as a left fielder but once he blew out his knee, he was a very good Designated Hitter. In that capacity, he had a higher WAR than David Ortiz in 2009 with the Yankees. He quietly put up another solid season with the Angels last year. His 124 OPS+ was dead on for his career numbers. And he won that World Series game. Which brings the Fan to another point.
Most of the baseball world now measures players by wins. Even the W in WAR stands for "Wins." But for the Yankees, Wins Above Replacement really should be called World Series Wins Above Replacement (or WWWAR). Because as everyone knows, if the Yankees don't win a World Series, the season was a failure. So basically, the Yankees paid $200 million for four World Series wins in 2009. If that is the case and Matsui won the last game with his heroics, then you could say his game against the Phillies was worth $50 or one quarter of the payroll. Well, of course you'd have to whittle that down a bit for pitching and playing the field and all that, but if you boil it all down, Matsui's game may have been worth the $13 million the Yankees paid for him in 2009.
But the Yankees wouldn't pay for him in 2010. And the reality is that the move made sense based on Matsui's age and health. But his season for the Angels last year was worth far more than anything the Yankees put out there as a DH. But again, the Angels, a team that didn't hit last year except for Hunter and Matsui, did the same thing the Yankees did and let him walk. As a DH, Matsui should have one more good year in him. But he had to skulk around for a job which has to be hard for a once proud Japanese player who represented the best of that country's baseball.
It's sad really. But if Matsui can make it work and be productive, then more power to him and the Athletics hope he will stabilize their line up a little bit after playing DH tiddly winks last year. Matsui should enjoy playing for a city that has a large oriental population who will no doubt adopt Matsui as oof their own. But it just won't seem right seeing him in an Oakland uniform. When Matsui takes his baseball hat off and lets his jet black hair spill down, that cap should be a Yankee cap. But the world moves on and not everyone can be Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.
Rangers and Yankees Dodge Major Bullet
And so the Cliff Lee saga is over and in a surprise ending, the Phillies offered him less time but landed the pitcher to add to their collection. Lee joins Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels as baseball's version of the Dream Team. Most are writing about how the Rangers and Yankees have lost out. Yankee writers are calling this the worst off season ever. That's not the opinion here. The Fan has said all along that whichever team signs Lee, they will live to regret it. The terms were simply too long and the money too high for a 32 year old pitcher who has too many down sides to consider for that length of time. Now the Yankees and Rangers can commit that money to younger players that can help thm in the short term and long term.
The Phillies are taking a gigantic gamble. Hamels is the only one of their fab four that is under 30. The rest are signed for a long time (well, not Oswalt) and the risk is what those pitchers will look like on the back end of these deals. Their big three were supposed to push them into the World Series last year and that didn't quite work out as anything can happen in a seven game series. The Giants went on to defeat the Phillies and win the World Series. The Phillies are already favorites in the NL East and Lee will no doubt help solidify their odds. Lee is certainly going to help them short term. It was always the long term consequences that bothered this observer.
The Rangers are just coming out of a bankruptcy sale with new owners and new optimism. They did not get a gigantic contribution from Lee down the stretch who was only a .500 pitcher for Texas. There is no reason the Rangers can't continue to build themselves as the new AL West power without Lee. And now they won't have the heavy burden of Lee's contract around their necks. Anyone who thought the A-Rod deal was a killer for Texas would have thought the same thing in spades in a few years with Lee. A team like the Rangers needs financial flexibility and now they will have it.
The Yankees are having trouble signing free agents all of the sudden. One has to wonder if their strategy is different now that George Steinbrenner isn't running the team. Perhaps his sons are not as gifted in the art of persuasion as the old man. Perhaps the Yankees have too many people making too many public statements. Whatever the case, this will make Brian Cashman look bad, but the reality is that he dodged a major bullet. Think Barry Zito and Kevin Brown. The Yankees' past is littered with the signing of old free agents to long term deals that didn't work out. That was what killed them in the early part of the 2000s. This writer likes the way they have been developing from below. That's the smartest way to go along with signing or trading for short term help and fixes. Besides, if the Yankees signed Lee, there would have been just one more backlash about how they can buy whatever they want and there would be more blogs out there about salary caps.
Lee is going to help the Phillies this year and next and perhaps into a third year just like he would have helped the Yankees and the Rangers. Now the Yankees should pursue another lefty like Buehrle or someone like that. The only thing that hurts about this deal is that an extra lefty in the rotation against the lefty-heavy Red Sox would have been great. But there are others out there if the Yankees are creative.
The Rangers will survive. They are on the right path and the Angels, Athletics and Mariners have not improved significantly enough to rival what the Rangers already have. The Rangers should still win the AL West and the Yankees are still a 90 to 95 win team. As for the Phillies? Perhaps now someone will point to them as the big, bad money team on the East Coast and point to them as the team that is trying to buy the pennant.
The Phillies are taking a gigantic gamble. Hamels is the only one of their fab four that is under 30. The rest are signed for a long time (well, not Oswalt) and the risk is what those pitchers will look like on the back end of these deals. Their big three were supposed to push them into the World Series last year and that didn't quite work out as anything can happen in a seven game series. The Giants went on to defeat the Phillies and win the World Series. The Phillies are already favorites in the NL East and Lee will no doubt help solidify their odds. Lee is certainly going to help them short term. It was always the long term consequences that bothered this observer.
The Rangers are just coming out of a bankruptcy sale with new owners and new optimism. They did not get a gigantic contribution from Lee down the stretch who was only a .500 pitcher for Texas. There is no reason the Rangers can't continue to build themselves as the new AL West power without Lee. And now they won't have the heavy burden of Lee's contract around their necks. Anyone who thought the A-Rod deal was a killer for Texas would have thought the same thing in spades in a few years with Lee. A team like the Rangers needs financial flexibility and now they will have it.
The Yankees are having trouble signing free agents all of the sudden. One has to wonder if their strategy is different now that George Steinbrenner isn't running the team. Perhaps his sons are not as gifted in the art of persuasion as the old man. Perhaps the Yankees have too many people making too many public statements. Whatever the case, this will make Brian Cashman look bad, but the reality is that he dodged a major bullet. Think Barry Zito and Kevin Brown. The Yankees' past is littered with the signing of old free agents to long term deals that didn't work out. That was what killed them in the early part of the 2000s. This writer likes the way they have been developing from below. That's the smartest way to go along with signing or trading for short term help and fixes. Besides, if the Yankees signed Lee, there would have been just one more backlash about how they can buy whatever they want and there would be more blogs out there about salary caps.
Lee is going to help the Phillies this year and next and perhaps into a third year just like he would have helped the Yankees and the Rangers. Now the Yankees should pursue another lefty like Buehrle or someone like that. The only thing that hurts about this deal is that an extra lefty in the rotation against the lefty-heavy Red Sox would have been great. But there are others out there if the Yankees are creative.
The Rangers will survive. They are on the right path and the Angels, Athletics and Mariners have not improved significantly enough to rival what the Rangers already have. The Rangers should still win the AL West and the Yankees are still a 90 to 95 win team. As for the Phillies? Perhaps now someone will point to them as the big, bad money team on the East Coast and point to them as the team that is trying to buy the pennant.
Monday, December 13, 2010
Outliers On Parade
Merrium-Webster gives the following definition of "outlier": a statistical observation that is markedly different in value from the others of the sample. In baseball lingo, an outlier is a season by a player that defies that player's norms by a wide margin. The one that stands out the most in peoples' minds is Brady Anderson and his 50 homer season. But outliers happen often and they have led to a lot of general managers making fools of themselves thinking a player is going to have a season like that again. What follows isn't by any means a comprehensive list of outliers over the years, but just a few that have caught this Fan's imagination.
Darrell Porter (1979 - Royals): Darrell Porter was a number one pick for the Milwaukee Brewers in 1970. He made his major league debut a year later and then played parts of 17 seasons in MLB. He was a very good offensive catcher, prone to passed balls and fair at throwing out runners. He finished his career with a 113 OPS+, so he was above average in every way. But he was never considered an elite catcher. But 1979 was different. In that year, he became one of only a handful of players to walk over 100 times, drive in over 100 runs with 20 homers or less. His walk total was the only year he finished over 100 and with 121 free passes, his year total was 32 walks higher than any other year. He drove in 112 runs or 32 more than his high in any other season. His batting average was 17 points higher than any other year. His OBP was 21 points higher than any other year. He had his best slugging percentage for any of his full seasons that year and he even scored a triple double on extra base hits with 23 doubles, ten triples and 20 homers. Ten triples for a catcher!? It was the only year he scored 100 runs and he even led the league in sacrifice flies. That's an outlier. It makes sense that he became a free agent in 1980 and signed with the Cardinals. They released him five years later.
Darrell Evans (1973 - Braves): Darrell Evans was a good player for a long, long time. But he never had a season like 1973. The year before, he had hit only 19 homers for the Braves and so it was a huge surprise when he hit 41 in 1973. He only hit 25 the year after and only topped 40 again eleven years later for the Tigers. But it wasn't just the homers. His OBP that year was over .400, the only time that happened in his career. His batting average was .281, the only time he ever batted that high (his career average was .246). He posted career highs in slugging, OPS and OPS+. He even had arguably his best year in the field as a third baseman.
Jon Olerud (1993 - Blue Jays): Jon Olerud is one of the most overlooked players ever. He had a sensational career that fell short of Hall of Fame numbers only because he didn't play long enough. He was always one of the best fielding first baseman in baseball and may rank up there in the all time category. He finished with a career slash line of .295/.398/.465. He hit 500 doubles in his career and drove in over 1200. But Olerud had two outliers. In 1993, he was absolutely robbed of the MVP that year. He batted .362 (.284/..297 the year before and the year after). He had career highs in doubles (54), homers (24), RBIs, Runs, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+. It was an amazing season and the Fan watched nearly every one of his games that year. His season for the Mets in 1998 was a rare second outlier. Olerud was so good in 1993 that he was walked intentionally 33 times.
Bill Swift (1993 - Giants): Swift is one of this Fan's all time favorite players because he was born in Maine. He was a first round draft pick for the Mariners in 1984 (the second overall pick of that draft). He had some middling seasons for them both starting and in relief. In 1990, the Mariners converted him exclusively to relief and he responded with two excellent seasons. He saved 17 games in 1991 with a 1.99 ERA. He was then part of a six player trade with the Giants and the Giants changed him back into a starter. He did very well in 1992 but didn't have the wins to show for how well he pitched. But in 1993, Swift exploded into a 21 game winner. It was his only season with more than 11 wins. It was his only season with more than 77 strikeouts (he had 157 that year). It was the only season his K/BB ratio was over 2.00 (2.85). It was a remarkable year and he came within a whisker of winning the Cy Young Award that season. He is Exhibit A of Dusty Baker's reputation for burning out pitchers.
Okay. The Fan had a bunch of these in mind at the start of this post, but perhaps working 80 hours a week in the mall during yet another Christmas season has simply turned this man's mind to mush. Add some more in the comments and we'll do some exploring together.
Darrell Porter (1979 - Royals): Darrell Porter was a number one pick for the Milwaukee Brewers in 1970. He made his major league debut a year later and then played parts of 17 seasons in MLB. He was a very good offensive catcher, prone to passed balls and fair at throwing out runners. He finished his career with a 113 OPS+, so he was above average in every way. But he was never considered an elite catcher. But 1979 was different. In that year, he became one of only a handful of players to walk over 100 times, drive in over 100 runs with 20 homers or less. His walk total was the only year he finished over 100 and with 121 free passes, his year total was 32 walks higher than any other year. He drove in 112 runs or 32 more than his high in any other season. His batting average was 17 points higher than any other year. His OBP was 21 points higher than any other year. He had his best slugging percentage for any of his full seasons that year and he even scored a triple double on extra base hits with 23 doubles, ten triples and 20 homers. Ten triples for a catcher!? It was the only year he scored 100 runs and he even led the league in sacrifice flies. That's an outlier. It makes sense that he became a free agent in 1980 and signed with the Cardinals. They released him five years later.
Darrell Evans (1973 - Braves): Darrell Evans was a good player for a long, long time. But he never had a season like 1973. The year before, he had hit only 19 homers for the Braves and so it was a huge surprise when he hit 41 in 1973. He only hit 25 the year after and only topped 40 again eleven years later for the Tigers. But it wasn't just the homers. His OBP that year was over .400, the only time that happened in his career. His batting average was .281, the only time he ever batted that high (his career average was .246). He posted career highs in slugging, OPS and OPS+. He even had arguably his best year in the field as a third baseman.
Jon Olerud (1993 - Blue Jays): Jon Olerud is one of the most overlooked players ever. He had a sensational career that fell short of Hall of Fame numbers only because he didn't play long enough. He was always one of the best fielding first baseman in baseball and may rank up there in the all time category. He finished with a career slash line of .295/.398/.465. He hit 500 doubles in his career and drove in over 1200. But Olerud had two outliers. In 1993, he was absolutely robbed of the MVP that year. He batted .362 (.284/..297 the year before and the year after). He had career highs in doubles (54), homers (24), RBIs, Runs, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+. It was an amazing season and the Fan watched nearly every one of his games that year. His season for the Mets in 1998 was a rare second outlier. Olerud was so good in 1993 that he was walked intentionally 33 times.
Bill Swift (1993 - Giants): Swift is one of this Fan's all time favorite players because he was born in Maine. He was a first round draft pick for the Mariners in 1984 (the second overall pick of that draft). He had some middling seasons for them both starting and in relief. In 1990, the Mariners converted him exclusively to relief and he responded with two excellent seasons. He saved 17 games in 1991 with a 1.99 ERA. He was then part of a six player trade with the Giants and the Giants changed him back into a starter. He did very well in 1992 but didn't have the wins to show for how well he pitched. But in 1993, Swift exploded into a 21 game winner. It was his only season with more than 11 wins. It was his only season with more than 77 strikeouts (he had 157 that year). It was the only season his K/BB ratio was over 2.00 (2.85). It was a remarkable year and he came within a whisker of winning the Cy Young Award that season. He is Exhibit A of Dusty Baker's reputation for burning out pitchers.
Okay. The Fan had a bunch of these in mind at the start of this post, but perhaps working 80 hours a week in the mall during yet another Christmas season has simply turned this man's mind to mush. Add some more in the comments and we'll do some exploring together.
Cardinals Give Up On Brendan Ryan
Earlier this fall, there was a post here about Tulowitzki and Drew being the two best shortstops in baseball. A comment to that post pointed out that Brendan Ryan as a fielder danced blithely above those two other guys. After taking a look at the numbers, the comment was correct. Ryan is an amazing fielding shortstop. Unfortunately, he had a terrible season batting in 2010.
How bad was it? Ryan's On Base Percentage was .279 with a batting average of .222. Ryan's never had any power, so the low average on low OBP meant a batter that offered no value at all to the Cardinals' line up. If he could just hit like he did in 2009 when he batted .292 with an OBP of .340, then he would stil be the Cardinals' shortstop. Instead, he's been traded to the Seattle Mariners for a low-minors, 100 MPH-throwing, 6.23 ERA guy in the Mariners' system (Maikel Cleto). Or to put it another way: The Cardinals dumped their shortstop for a wing and a prayer.
Frankly, this deal doesn't make sense for either team. Ryan is too good a fielding shortstop to give up on in this day and age with very few quality shortstops in the game. Ryan's results in 2009 almost exactly duplicated his career line in the minor leagues. That would seem to be more of an indication of Ryan's ability than his 2010 debacle. Check that. 2010 batting debacle. Even with his low offense, Ryan's WAR was still in the positive numbers and bWAR was almost 1. That shows you just how good a shortstop he is. If his bat can come back just a little, he could be again the player that garnered a 3.4 WAR in 2009.
Instead, the Cardinals will turn to Ryan Theriot who is three years older and has NEVER had a year close to 3.4 WAR. Theriot won't add much more with the bat than Ryan did and he is no where near as good a fielder. Theriot finished 2010 with a negative WAR according to BR. Nothing about that move makes any sense for the Cardinals. The Cardinals rely on their big starting rotation to throw a bunch of grounders and those pitchers have a weaker infield now. There is nothing about Theriot's game that thrills this Fan other than his nickname, which is world class.
This move sort of smacks of another player that got afoul of Tony LaRussa. Normally a guy like Ryan would be a LaRussa favorite, but giving the shortstop job to an inferior player has to mean that Ryan wasn't on his manager's good side.
Perhaps Theriot is just considered a place holder until the Cardinals think that Pete Kozma is ready for prime time. Kosma is highly touted but to this point, strikes out too much, doesn't get on base enough and makes a ton of errors for the Cardinals' farm teams. He was drafted #1 by the Cardinals in 2007 and they might want to see if he can play at some point this season.
Meanwhile, it's hard to figure what the Mariners will be doing with Ryan. They already have Jack Wilson, the same sort of player that Ryan is who makes $5 million a year. Getting paid that kind of money means that Wilson has to play. Perhaps the Mariners will put Ryan at second and move Figgins back to third? That's possible, but Ryan's best position is shortstop. One thing is now true though: The Mariners have two of the slickest fielding shortstops in MLB. Too bad neither of them excites anyone with their bats.
How bad was it? Ryan's On Base Percentage was .279 with a batting average of .222. Ryan's never had any power, so the low average on low OBP meant a batter that offered no value at all to the Cardinals' line up. If he could just hit like he did in 2009 when he batted .292 with an OBP of .340, then he would stil be the Cardinals' shortstop. Instead, he's been traded to the Seattle Mariners for a low-minors, 100 MPH-throwing, 6.23 ERA guy in the Mariners' system (Maikel Cleto). Or to put it another way: The Cardinals dumped their shortstop for a wing and a prayer.
Frankly, this deal doesn't make sense for either team. Ryan is too good a fielding shortstop to give up on in this day and age with very few quality shortstops in the game. Ryan's results in 2009 almost exactly duplicated his career line in the minor leagues. That would seem to be more of an indication of Ryan's ability than his 2010 debacle. Check that. 2010 batting debacle. Even with his low offense, Ryan's WAR was still in the positive numbers and bWAR was almost 1. That shows you just how good a shortstop he is. If his bat can come back just a little, he could be again the player that garnered a 3.4 WAR in 2009.
Instead, the Cardinals will turn to Ryan Theriot who is three years older and has NEVER had a year close to 3.4 WAR. Theriot won't add much more with the bat than Ryan did and he is no where near as good a fielder. Theriot finished 2010 with a negative WAR according to BR. Nothing about that move makes any sense for the Cardinals. The Cardinals rely on their big starting rotation to throw a bunch of grounders and those pitchers have a weaker infield now. There is nothing about Theriot's game that thrills this Fan other than his nickname, which is world class.
This move sort of smacks of another player that got afoul of Tony LaRussa. Normally a guy like Ryan would be a LaRussa favorite, but giving the shortstop job to an inferior player has to mean that Ryan wasn't on his manager's good side.
Perhaps Theriot is just considered a place holder until the Cardinals think that Pete Kozma is ready for prime time. Kosma is highly touted but to this point, strikes out too much, doesn't get on base enough and makes a ton of errors for the Cardinals' farm teams. He was drafted #1 by the Cardinals in 2007 and they might want to see if he can play at some point this season.
Meanwhile, it's hard to figure what the Mariners will be doing with Ryan. They already have Jack Wilson, the same sort of player that Ryan is who makes $5 million a year. Getting paid that kind of money means that Wilson has to play. Perhaps the Mariners will put Ryan at second and move Figgins back to third? That's possible, but Ryan's best position is shortstop. One thing is now true though: The Mariners have two of the slickest fielding shortstops in MLB. Too bad neither of them excites anyone with their bats.
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Where Will Russell Martin Land?
It is still hard to believe that at the tender age of 27, Russell Martin was left for dead by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Sure 2009 and 2010 were let downs for Martin after the splashy way he started his big league career. And sure, a torn ligament in his hip is a serious injury and perhaps not worth a $7 million arbitration risk for the Dodgers in their post divorce reality. But for three years, Martin was one of the best catchers in the game. Now, it seems that he will have to rebuild his career in the American League East.
At last report, three teams were interested in his services. All three are in the AL East and all three are interesting situations for Martin. The Boston Red Sox alternate between stating that Jarrod Saltalamacchia is their starting catcher and the stark reality of how scary that proposition is for them. The Yankees have kicked Jorge Posada to DH and have little faith in Cervelli. But they do have Jesus Montero, a young stud who will hit, but whose defense might make Posada look good. The Blue Jays have their own prospect in J.P. Arencibia but seem hesitant to take the plunge. Jose Molina is their back up. All three teams see to blithely state that they have a plan behind the plate, but Martin would hedge those bets.
But all three teams have to be careful because that status of Martin's health is a risk. According to reports, he is still rehabbing but is doing baseball related activities and that is a good sign. If Martin could be healthy, he is tantalizing. He's never had an OBP less than .347 and that was in 2010 when nothing else went well. He throws out over 30% of base steal attempts, something that none of these three teams can do currently. And, if he can get his health back, he was once a very good hitter and a fire brand type of player.
So that leaves two questions: Who should sign him and where should Martin go? From a personal level, Martin could choose the Yankees. He's spent years in one show business capital and has been linked with people like Alyssa Milano. New York is the other show business capital in the U.S. and that would seem to fit his lifestyle. One can't forget that his mother was in show business. But then again, Martin is from Ontario and playing for the Blue Jays would send him home. The Red Sox don't have either of those advantages, but are currently sporting the niftiest roster on the planet. That could be temptation alone for Martin to want to be a part of that Red Sox bonanza.
As far as who should sign him, the Yankees have the most to gain. Yes, Montero needs to be given a shot somewhere. But with the current splashes the Red Sox have made, an honest-to-goodness potential star in Martin might be too good to pass up. The Blue Jays should sign him because another home grown player would help the Blue Jays sell tickets.
Of course, this could all be weak speculation because at this point, until Martin proves he can be a good player again, he's a heavy risk for any team that signs him. But if you are a Fan of the game, you have to hope that Martin bounces back and goes back to being one of the most exciting catchers in the game.
At last report, three teams were interested in his services. All three are in the AL East and all three are interesting situations for Martin. The Boston Red Sox alternate between stating that Jarrod Saltalamacchia is their starting catcher and the stark reality of how scary that proposition is for them. The Yankees have kicked Jorge Posada to DH and have little faith in Cervelli. But they do have Jesus Montero, a young stud who will hit, but whose defense might make Posada look good. The Blue Jays have their own prospect in J.P. Arencibia but seem hesitant to take the plunge. Jose Molina is their back up. All three teams see to blithely state that they have a plan behind the plate, but Martin would hedge those bets.
But all three teams have to be careful because that status of Martin's health is a risk. According to reports, he is still rehabbing but is doing baseball related activities and that is a good sign. If Martin could be healthy, he is tantalizing. He's never had an OBP less than .347 and that was in 2010 when nothing else went well. He throws out over 30% of base steal attempts, something that none of these three teams can do currently. And, if he can get his health back, he was once a very good hitter and a fire brand type of player.
So that leaves two questions: Who should sign him and where should Martin go? From a personal level, Martin could choose the Yankees. He's spent years in one show business capital and has been linked with people like Alyssa Milano. New York is the other show business capital in the U.S. and that would seem to fit his lifestyle. One can't forget that his mother was in show business. But then again, Martin is from Ontario and playing for the Blue Jays would send him home. The Red Sox don't have either of those advantages, but are currently sporting the niftiest roster on the planet. That could be temptation alone for Martin to want to be a part of that Red Sox bonanza.
As far as who should sign him, the Yankees have the most to gain. Yes, Montero needs to be given a shot somewhere. But with the current splashes the Red Sox have made, an honest-to-goodness potential star in Martin might be too good to pass up. The Blue Jays should sign him because another home grown player would help the Blue Jays sell tickets.
Of course, this could all be weak speculation because at this point, until Martin proves he can be a good player again, he's a heavy risk for any team that signs him. But if you are a Fan of the game, you have to hope that Martin bounces back and goes back to being one of the most exciting catchers in the game.
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Catch But Don't Walk
After posting about the Seattle Mariners' woes at the catching position the last few years, it occurred to the Fan that there have been a lot of recent catchers that don't like stand at the plate for very long. Perhaps they have restless leg syndrome after doing all that squatting. Ivan Rodriguez had a famous season where he only walked nine times the entire year. All that being said and thought about, this Fan thought it would be fun to compile the ten lowest walk rates for catchers in the last 30 years. The minimum number of plate appearances is 300 so it had to be a regular catcher who played at least 50% of his games at that position. These are the top ten...or should the Fan say: Bottom ten?
Ivan Rodriguez is king of the non walk catchers.
Catchers with the ten lowest On Base Percentages in the last thirty years.
1. .236. Bo Diaz (327 plate appearances),
1. .236. Eli Marrero (1999 Cardinals, 343 plate appearances).
3. .242. Bob Boone (1984 Angels, 486 plate appearances! Yowza!)
4. .243 Mike Methany (1996 Brewers, 341 plate appearances)
5. .244 Dan Wilson (1994 Mariners, 303 plate appearances)
6. .245 Matt Walbeck (1994 Twins, 359 plate appearances)
7. .246 Tony Pena (1993 Red Sox, 347 plate appearances)
8. .252 Tim Laudner (1987 Twins, 317 plate appearances)
9. .256 Todd Hundley (1992 Mets, 390 plate appearances)
9. .256 Steve Yeager (1983 Dodgers, 366 plate appearances)
- Bo Diaz - 1988 Cincinnati Reds. Diaz walked only seven times in .327 plate appearances. His On Base Percentage that year was .236. Yeesh.
- Miguel Olivo - 2008 Kansas City Royals. Olivo, who the Fan just wrote about, walked seven times in 317 plate appearances. His .278 OBP was just north of his .255 batting average that year.
- Einer Diaz - 2003 Texas Rangers. Nine walks in 361 plate appearances. .294 OBP.
- Eliazor Alfonso - 2006 San Francisco Giants. Nine walks in 309 plate appearances. .302 OBP. At least he was over .300
- Miguel Olivo - 2006 Florida Marlins. There he is again! Nine walks in 452 plate appearances. .287 OBP.
- Ivan Rodriguez - 2007 Detroit Tigers. This is the one people remember. Nine walks in 515 plate appearances. It doesn't seem possible. One of those walks was intentional. .294 OBP.
- Rich Gedman - 1982 Boston Red Sox. Gedman was a good hitter until he met a certain unnamed batting coach.. Ten walks in 305 plate appearances. .276 OBP.
- Dan Wilson - 1980 Seattle Mariners. Ten walks in 303 plate appearances.
- Bob Kearney - 1985 Seattle Mariners. Disturbing trend here. Eleven walks in 326 plate appearances. .277 OBP.
- Bob Melvin - 1990 Baltimore Orioles. Eleven walks in 318 plate appearances. .267 OBP.
- Pat Borders - 1991 Toronto Blue Jays. Eleven walks in 312 plate appearances. .271 OBP.
- Mike Methany - 1998 Milwaukee Brewers. Eleven walks in 314 plate appearances. .278 OBP.
- Ivan Rodriguez - 2005 Detroit tigers. Eleven walks in 525 plate appearances. .290 OBP.
Ivan Rodriguez is king of the non walk catchers.
Catchers with the ten lowest On Base Percentages in the last thirty years.
1. .236. Bo Diaz (327 plate appearances),
1. .236. Eli Marrero (1999 Cardinals, 343 plate appearances).
3. .242. Bob Boone (1984 Angels, 486 plate appearances! Yowza!)
4. .243 Mike Methany (1996 Brewers, 341 plate appearances)
5. .244 Dan Wilson (1994 Mariners, 303 plate appearances)
6. .245 Matt Walbeck (1994 Twins, 359 plate appearances)
7. .246 Tony Pena (1993 Red Sox, 347 plate appearances)
8. .252 Tim Laudner (1987 Twins, 317 plate appearances)
9. .256 Todd Hundley (1992 Mets, 390 plate appearances)
9. .256 Steve Yeager (1983 Dodgers, 366 plate appearances)
Seattle's Catcher in the Nigh
Isn't it funny how some teams just can't seem to find a player to play a certain position? For example, the Tampa Bay Rays have no luck in finding a DH that hits any better than a pitcher. For the Seattle Mariners, that position seems to be the catcher. For years, the Mariners have underwhelmed when it came to their catching corps and the signing of Miguel Oliva does not lend inspiration that their dry spell behind the plate will get any better.
Here's a look at some of the gory details the past few years:
Not a pretty picture. At least in 2006 and 2007 they slugged a little bit. But for years now, the Mariners have had catchers that never took a walk. Last year, of course, was the nadir of them all. You can't survive with a .569 OBP from your catchers. 2010 was supposed to be the year Adam Moore took over as catcher. But he didn't hit (.195). He didn't walk. He didn't throw out base runners (19%) and he struck out a lot without any power. Moore had an .850 OPS in the minors and had good success throwing out runners, so perhaps this small sample size is unfair to his abilities. He is only 26 and could turn it around.
But Miguel Oliva is no upgrade. First of all, he's had ten or more passed balls in three of his last four years and four times in his nine year career. He's not bad at throwing out runners. But check out his career slash line: .246/.283/.427. Just what the Mariners need, another catcher with a sub-.300 OBP. Last year's offensive numbers were inflated by Coors Field in Colorado. Olivo has walked only 125 times in 3058 plate appearances. That translates to 4%. That makes the Molina brothers look like Frank Thomas.
So maybe Moore will get another chance and just maybe he'll show a little bit of his minor league success. But if not, the Mariners are headed into their fourth straight year of woeful offensive catching.
Here's a look at some of the gory details the past few years:
- 2010: Slash line - .201/.263/.303 Okay, that's pitiful. They did manage to throw out 28% of base steal attempts. That's pretty good these days.
- 2009: Slash line - .224/.282/.354. Not as bad, but still, pretty awful. They were good, however, at throwing runners out, which they did at a 40% clip.
- 2008: Slash line - .252/.297/.377. That's three years now with an OBP under .300. 29% of base steal attempts gunned down.
- 2007: Slash line - .291/.331/.429. Johjima's best offensive year, but the team still had only 22 walks from the catching position in 639 plate appearances. Johjima was very good at throwing base stealers out. 39%.
- 2006: Slash line - .269/.310/.420. 23 walks in 645 plate appearances.
Not a pretty picture. At least in 2006 and 2007 they slugged a little bit. But for years now, the Mariners have had catchers that never took a walk. Last year, of course, was the nadir of them all. You can't survive with a .569 OBP from your catchers. 2010 was supposed to be the year Adam Moore took over as catcher. But he didn't hit (.195). He didn't walk. He didn't throw out base runners (19%) and he struck out a lot without any power. Moore had an .850 OPS in the minors and had good success throwing out runners, so perhaps this small sample size is unfair to his abilities. He is only 26 and could turn it around.
But Miguel Oliva is no upgrade. First of all, he's had ten or more passed balls in three of his last four years and four times in his nine year career. He's not bad at throwing out runners. But check out his career slash line: .246/.283/.427. Just what the Mariners need, another catcher with a sub-.300 OBP. Last year's offensive numbers were inflated by Coors Field in Colorado. Olivo has walked only 125 times in 3058 plate appearances. That translates to 4%. That makes the Molina brothers look like Frank Thomas.
So maybe Moore will get another chance and just maybe he'll show a little bit of his minor league success. But if not, the Mariners are headed into their fourth straight year of woeful offensive catching.
Friday, December 10, 2010
The Angels Signed Somebody!
There! Now doesn't that feel better? Reports are stating that Scott Downs has agreed to terms with the Angels on a three year, $15 million deal. The Angels who have often gone without a left-handed reliever for several seasons have now signed two this off season. Downs is a bit old to be given that much money as he is 35 and has pitched nine seasons in the big leagues. But he's a lefty, and in the major leagues, a lefty means forever.
But that's a bit unfair to Downs as he's been terrific the last few seasons. Since 2007, Downs has posted ERA+ figures of 207, 238, 144 and 158. And his strikeout to walk ratio has been well over three for the past two seasons. If downs can do that for at least two more seasons, this deal will pay for itself with his performance.
The bullpen was a major weakness for the Angels last year and with two good left-handed arms now in house, the Angels have added the kind of quality depth that makes for a good bullpen. Trust Mike Scioscia to figure out the best combination out there.
The Blue Jays, who are accumulating draft picks like McDonalds' Monopoly game cards, get two more now that Downs has signed outside of Toronto.
But that's a bit unfair to Downs as he's been terrific the last few seasons. Since 2007, Downs has posted ERA+ figures of 207, 238, 144 and 158. And his strikeout to walk ratio has been well over three for the past two seasons. If downs can do that for at least two more seasons, this deal will pay for itself with his performance.
The bullpen was a major weakness for the Angels last year and with two good left-handed arms now in house, the Angels have added the kind of quality depth that makes for a good bullpen. Trust Mike Scioscia to figure out the best combination out there.
The Blue Jays, who are accumulating draft picks like McDonalds' Monopoly game cards, get two more now that Downs has signed outside of Toronto.
Are the Angels Smart or Stupid?
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in California on the West Coast of the United States of America sure are taking a beating these days. Even one of their own players, Torii Hunter, is upset because the Angels whiffed on free agents Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, etc. It is doubtful that they will be in the final bidding for Cliff Lee. That leaves Adrian Beltre as the last big ticket free agent available to them. But do the Angels deserve the pile driving they are taking?
According to this writer's scorecard, Jayson Werth was overpaid, Carl Crawford was overpaid, Cliff Lee will be overpaid and Beltre is still an unknown as to what he is asking. Is a team stupid for turning away from making foolish contracts for players that will not be worth their value at the end of the terms of their deals? There's a strong indication against this being stupid but instead it could be wise. This Fan can guarantee you that Cliff Lee may have three years of effective pitching left in him. Carl Crawford may be this good for another three or four years. Werth has been improving steadily and could have four good years in him. Can you blame the Angels for blinking when all that cost will probably be eaten at the back end of those contracts?
On the other hand, the Angels as their roster now stands is full of holes. They don't have a DH, a third baseman or a bullpen. The DH (and probably the bullpen) is easily remedied as there are still a bunch of slow footed, stone gloved sluggers out there. Bullpen arms flood the market. Beltre would be perfect for third base for the Angels. So those situations are fixable. But the Angels have little if any value to trade and their system isn't exactly teaming with prospects. Since they haven't exactly built a system capable of feeding them young talent, the only way they can quickly improve to stay up with the Rangers is to buy the talent. At this point, that isn't going so well.
Others have insisted that the Angels are poor negotiators and are inflexible in their terms. Is that true? Is it a crime to attach a value at a player they covet and stick by that value? It's not like the Red Sox just out bid the Angels by a few measly dollars. The Red Sox out bid the Angels by almost $30 million! Which team is the stupid one here? History will have to give us the answer. But for now, this Fan can't blame the Angels for picking a timeline and a price tag that makes sense based on a player's value and projected value. If you break down their offer to Crawford, it's awfully close to Baseball Prospectus projections for how much Crawford will be worth over the next six years. The Red Sox, on the other hand, overpaid those projections by nearly $15 million and with the extra year guaranteed the back end of the deal to be an extreme risk. If the Angels whiffed on free agents and the difference between the prices offered was minimal, then, yeah, you have to question their tactics. But that is not the case here. The Torii Hunter contract is a very wise and fair contract for what Hunter has given them.
Many point to the Mo Vaughn contract as the reason the Angels are gun shy about long-term megadeals. But gosh, wouldn't you be? After averaging over five wins above replacement the previous five years for Boston, the Angels signed the splashy Vaughn for huge dollars and Vaughn responded with two years of 1.5 and 1.0 WAR for the Angels. They finally unloaded him off to the Mets for Kevin Appier and ate a bunch of the contract. That would sour a lot of people. If you put your finger in a light socket and get zapped, you're not going to do it again.
But it's not like they are nickel and diming people either. Hunter got a nice deal and offering Crawford six years and $105 million isn't exactly chump change. In the end, this Fan has to give the Angels props for being fiscally intelligent in not overpaying talent. That said, the result might be another year or two of being the second best team in the AL West. But winning isn't everything if it means offering stupid contracts. Just ask the Yankees or Rangers four years from now when Cliff Lee is just another league average pitcher.
According to this writer's scorecard, Jayson Werth was overpaid, Carl Crawford was overpaid, Cliff Lee will be overpaid and Beltre is still an unknown as to what he is asking. Is a team stupid for turning away from making foolish contracts for players that will not be worth their value at the end of the terms of their deals? There's a strong indication against this being stupid but instead it could be wise. This Fan can guarantee you that Cliff Lee may have three years of effective pitching left in him. Carl Crawford may be this good for another three or four years. Werth has been improving steadily and could have four good years in him. Can you blame the Angels for blinking when all that cost will probably be eaten at the back end of those contracts?
On the other hand, the Angels as their roster now stands is full of holes. They don't have a DH, a third baseman or a bullpen. The DH (and probably the bullpen) is easily remedied as there are still a bunch of slow footed, stone gloved sluggers out there. Bullpen arms flood the market. Beltre would be perfect for third base for the Angels. So those situations are fixable. But the Angels have little if any value to trade and their system isn't exactly teaming with prospects. Since they haven't exactly built a system capable of feeding them young talent, the only way they can quickly improve to stay up with the Rangers is to buy the talent. At this point, that isn't going so well.
Others have insisted that the Angels are poor negotiators and are inflexible in their terms. Is that true? Is it a crime to attach a value at a player they covet and stick by that value? It's not like the Red Sox just out bid the Angels by a few measly dollars. The Red Sox out bid the Angels by almost $30 million! Which team is the stupid one here? History will have to give us the answer. But for now, this Fan can't blame the Angels for picking a timeline and a price tag that makes sense based on a player's value and projected value. If you break down their offer to Crawford, it's awfully close to Baseball Prospectus projections for how much Crawford will be worth over the next six years. The Red Sox, on the other hand, overpaid those projections by nearly $15 million and with the extra year guaranteed the back end of the deal to be an extreme risk. If the Angels whiffed on free agents and the difference between the prices offered was minimal, then, yeah, you have to question their tactics. But that is not the case here. The Torii Hunter contract is a very wise and fair contract for what Hunter has given them.
Many point to the Mo Vaughn contract as the reason the Angels are gun shy about long-term megadeals. But gosh, wouldn't you be? After averaging over five wins above replacement the previous five years for Boston, the Angels signed the splashy Vaughn for huge dollars and Vaughn responded with two years of 1.5 and 1.0 WAR for the Angels. They finally unloaded him off to the Mets for Kevin Appier and ate a bunch of the contract. That would sour a lot of people. If you put your finger in a light socket and get zapped, you're not going to do it again.
But it's not like they are nickel and diming people either. Hunter got a nice deal and offering Crawford six years and $105 million isn't exactly chump change. In the end, this Fan has to give the Angels props for being fiscally intelligent in not overpaying talent. That said, the result might be another year or two of being the second best team in the AL West. But winning isn't everything if it means offering stupid contracts. Just ask the Yankees or Rangers four years from now when Cliff Lee is just another league average pitcher.
Thursday, December 09, 2010
Twins Taking Big Risk Trading Hardy
Last week in this space, this observer posted on the puzzle that J. J. Hardy seems to present. After posting great numbers in 2007 and 2008, Hardy fell off a cliff in 2009 and 2010. Apparently, the Twins don't want to try to figure the puzzle out and traded Hardy and the far less useful Brenden Harris, to the Orioles for a couple of minor league arms. The Twins seem to be putting all of their infield eggs in a Japanese basket they haven't even signed yet.
Hardy might well have worn out his welcome. Who knows what goes on inside a clubhouse, but Hardy only played a few games over 100 last year due to various ailments. The Twins seem to thrive on players they consider "grinders" or "gamers," and perhaps Hardy doesn't fit that category in their minds. So instead, they have traded their only viable shortstop in the hopes they can sign Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who by most accounts, is an Ichiro acolyte without Ichiro's talent. They have no guarantee that this kid from Japan can even play in the major leagues. Wouldn't you like to find that out before trading your only shortstop?
And what if that doesn't work out? The Twins' only talented prospect at the position is 17 years old. You won't see him (Miguel Jean Sano) for a few years yet. There is Alexi Casilla, but he's the second baseman. If not him then take your pick between Trever Plouffe and Matt Tolbert. Uh. No thanks.
The Twins are taking a huge risk here. If Hardy has proven anything, he's proven that he can play shortstop in the major leagues. The Orioles should enjoy their new shortstop.
Hardy might well have worn out his welcome. Who knows what goes on inside a clubhouse, but Hardy only played a few games over 100 last year due to various ailments. The Twins seem to thrive on players they consider "grinders" or "gamers," and perhaps Hardy doesn't fit that category in their minds. So instead, they have traded their only viable shortstop in the hopes they can sign Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who by most accounts, is an Ichiro acolyte without Ichiro's talent. They have no guarantee that this kid from Japan can even play in the major leagues. Wouldn't you like to find that out before trading your only shortstop?
And what if that doesn't work out? The Twins' only talented prospect at the position is 17 years old. You won't see him (Miguel Jean Sano) for a few years yet. There is Alexi Casilla, but he's the second baseman. If not him then take your pick between Trever Plouffe and Matt Tolbert. Uh. No thanks.
The Twins are taking a huge risk here. If Hardy has proven anything, he's proven that he can play shortstop in the major leagues. The Orioles should enjoy their new shortstop.
Comparing Carl Crawford to Bobby Abreu
There is no doubt in every one's mind that the Carl Crawford signing by the Boston Red Sox combined with their acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez makes them the team to beat in the American League East. This writer certainly has no arguments with those sentiments. The Fan thought the Red Sox were the favorites before Crawford signed. It just seemed a good time to take a good look at Crawford as a player since he will be in the thick of Red Sox seasons for years to come. When considering Crawford, the first name that came to mind was Bobby Abreu. But is that even close to being a good comparison?
Obviously when it comes to fielding, the Abreu/Crawford comparison is stupid. Abreu was at best an adequate fielder in his prime and an awful one after. Crawford, by all accounts is a wonderful left fielder. But Fenway Park and its configuration mitigates some of that value Crawford provides because left field in Fenway is like playing in a sandbox. But there are other comparables.
First, neither hit much for power. Abreu did have some good power years early in his career, but they are somewhat suspect in retrospect. His true power value seemed to be anywhere from 18 to 22 homers. Crawford hit 19 homers in 2010, his highest total in his career. That gives an edge to Abreu. Crawford hit many more triples than Abreu though. But still, Abreu's career slugging is .488. Crawford's is .444 and 2010 was the first season in Crawford's career that he slugged higher than .488 in a season.
Second, Abreu always had more patience at the plate. Both stayed around the .300 mark in batting average, but Abreu would consistently post .400 OBP or higher. Abreu walked over 100 times in a season for eight straight seasons. Crawford has never walked more than 51 times and has a career OBP of .337. In his peak years, he should post OBP totals from .350 to .365. Edge Abreu.
Base running is again a silly question, though not as silly as you would think. Crawford has averaged 50 steals a season with an incredible 82% success rate. Part of that could be explained by all those games facing Varitek and Posada, but still. It's incredible the success Crawford has had on the bases. Abreu was no slouch on the bases and in his peak nine years averaged 30 steals a season with a 77% success rate. But pitchers were never rattled with Abreu on the bases like they are with Crawford. Edge Crawford.
The Fan saved his favorite stat for last. It was interesting to note that Abreu has a career BABIP of .343. Crawford's career mark is .331. That means that more of Abreu's career batted balls fell in for hits than Crawfords. Why would that be? This observer thinks the difference is line drive percentage. Abreu's career live drive percentage is 22.1% (since 2002. The stat wasn't kept before that). It was common for Abreu to break the 25 to 26% mark during his best years. Carl Crawford has a career line drive percentage of 19.6% and it was 16.5% in 2010. The highest mark Crawford ever put together for a season was 2003 with a 21.1% season. A lot of comments around the Net today mentioned that Crawford should pepper the Green Monster. But you have to hit line drives to do that. Crawford doesn't with regularity.
Abreu during his peak years had WAR ratings that rivaled or surpass Crawford's yearly totals and it wouldn't be close except for Crawford's fielding edge. So, believe it or not, Abreu was as good a player as Crawford is now.
What's the reason for bringing all this up? Two reasons. The first was to make the point that Bobby Abreu never scared this Fan with his play. If he was coming up in an All Star Game or a playoff game or a World Series game, there was never any quaking about what he might do at the plate. There were always other betters that scared you more. The same is true for Crawford. When the Yankees played the Bay Rays, Crawford was never a batter that put dread into you when you were watching in a close game. The question the Fan has is who would scare you more during a big playoff moment, Crawford or Werth. This Fan would have to say Werth.
The second reason for bringing all this up was to mention that Abreu's WAR totals started declining in his age 31 season. That's two years away for Crawford and his deal is for seven years. Again, don't get the Fan wrong. Crawford is a wonderful player and the Red Sox are the team to beat. The Fan just doesn't think he's as great as he's made out to be and doesn't think he will be worth over $20 million for the next seven seasons.
Obviously when it comes to fielding, the Abreu/Crawford comparison is stupid. Abreu was at best an adequate fielder in his prime and an awful one after. Crawford, by all accounts is a wonderful left fielder. But Fenway Park and its configuration mitigates some of that value Crawford provides because left field in Fenway is like playing in a sandbox. But there are other comparables.
First, neither hit much for power. Abreu did have some good power years early in his career, but they are somewhat suspect in retrospect. His true power value seemed to be anywhere from 18 to 22 homers. Crawford hit 19 homers in 2010, his highest total in his career. That gives an edge to Abreu. Crawford hit many more triples than Abreu though. But still, Abreu's career slugging is .488. Crawford's is .444 and 2010 was the first season in Crawford's career that he slugged higher than .488 in a season.
Second, Abreu always had more patience at the plate. Both stayed around the .300 mark in batting average, but Abreu would consistently post .400 OBP or higher. Abreu walked over 100 times in a season for eight straight seasons. Crawford has never walked more than 51 times and has a career OBP of .337. In his peak years, he should post OBP totals from .350 to .365. Edge Abreu.
Base running is again a silly question, though not as silly as you would think. Crawford has averaged 50 steals a season with an incredible 82% success rate. Part of that could be explained by all those games facing Varitek and Posada, but still. It's incredible the success Crawford has had on the bases. Abreu was no slouch on the bases and in his peak nine years averaged 30 steals a season with a 77% success rate. But pitchers were never rattled with Abreu on the bases like they are with Crawford. Edge Crawford.
The Fan saved his favorite stat for last. It was interesting to note that Abreu has a career BABIP of .343. Crawford's career mark is .331. That means that more of Abreu's career batted balls fell in for hits than Crawfords. Why would that be? This observer thinks the difference is line drive percentage. Abreu's career live drive percentage is 22.1% (since 2002. The stat wasn't kept before that). It was common for Abreu to break the 25 to 26% mark during his best years. Carl Crawford has a career line drive percentage of 19.6% and it was 16.5% in 2010. The highest mark Crawford ever put together for a season was 2003 with a 21.1% season. A lot of comments around the Net today mentioned that Crawford should pepper the Green Monster. But you have to hit line drives to do that. Crawford doesn't with regularity.
Abreu during his peak years had WAR ratings that rivaled or surpass Crawford's yearly totals and it wouldn't be close except for Crawford's fielding edge. So, believe it or not, Abreu was as good a player as Crawford is now.
What's the reason for bringing all this up? Two reasons. The first was to make the point that Bobby Abreu never scared this Fan with his play. If he was coming up in an All Star Game or a playoff game or a World Series game, there was never any quaking about what he might do at the plate. There were always other betters that scared you more. The same is true for Crawford. When the Yankees played the Bay Rays, Crawford was never a batter that put dread into you when you were watching in a close game. The question the Fan has is who would scare you more during a big playoff moment, Crawford or Werth. This Fan would have to say Werth.
The second reason for bringing all this up was to mention that Abreu's WAR totals started declining in his age 31 season. That's two years away for Crawford and his deal is for seven years. Again, don't get the Fan wrong. Crawford is a wonderful player and the Red Sox are the team to beat. The Fan just doesn't think he's as great as he's made out to be and doesn't think he will be worth over $20 million for the next seven seasons.
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
Bay Rays Give Bartlett Away
Jason Bartlett isn't the best shortstop in the majors, but he's far from the worst either. You would figure that the Bay Rays would at least get something for him. But the two pitchers they acquired in the deal with San Diego, Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell, have shown little in their minor league career since getting drafted. Ramos had a brief cup of coffee with the Padres the last couple of years and was banged around in his short outings. Bartlett didn't have a good year in 2010, but he has some history of success and would seem to have brought more value to the Bay Rays than what they received.
By the looks of things, 2009 was an outlier for Bartlett. He had never shown that kind of power (14 homers) and his 133 OPS+ is the only year in his career where he finished over 100 in that category. But last year's woes (.254 final batting average) was a bit flukey too. His BABIP was dead on at .299, but if you break that down to hit trajectories, his BABIP on ground balls was like .199. Plus, he started slowly as this Fan does in the morning with sub-.200 months in May and June. But the rest of the year showed him hitting for the .280 average you expect from Bartlett for his career.
San Diego gets a major upgrade from last year and Bartlett should be a nice piece for them. He should hit in the .270 to .290 range with an OBP of around .360. He is an unspectacular, but effective shortstop with good range and good hands. He only made 11 errors last year. Bartlett will never hit for power, especially not in San Diego, but he will be a steady shortstop for that team and in this market for shortstops, that's a pretty good deal.
As for the Bay Rays, Brignac should play short and the Fan is all in favor of that. Brignac can become a really good player in the AL if given a chance to play 155 games. Even so, the Bay Rays should have gotten something better than the two pitchers they received for Bartlett. Perhaps they see more in those pitchers than these dry stats show, but the stats aren't pretty and the two seem destined to be minor league arms.
By the looks of things, 2009 was an outlier for Bartlett. He had never shown that kind of power (14 homers) and his 133 OPS+ is the only year in his career where he finished over 100 in that category. But last year's woes (.254 final batting average) was a bit flukey too. His BABIP was dead on at .299, but if you break that down to hit trajectories, his BABIP on ground balls was like .199. Plus, he started slowly as this Fan does in the morning with sub-.200 months in May and June. But the rest of the year showed him hitting for the .280 average you expect from Bartlett for his career.
San Diego gets a major upgrade from last year and Bartlett should be a nice piece for them. He should hit in the .270 to .290 range with an OBP of around .360. He is an unspectacular, but effective shortstop with good range and good hands. He only made 11 errors last year. Bartlett will never hit for power, especially not in San Diego, but he will be a steady shortstop for that team and in this market for shortstops, that's a pretty good deal.
As for the Bay Rays, Brignac should play short and the Fan is all in favor of that. Brignac can become a really good player in the AL if given a chance to play 155 games. Even so, the Bay Rays should have gotten something better than the two pitchers they received for Bartlett. Perhaps they see more in those pitchers than these dry stats show, but the stats aren't pretty and the two seem destined to be minor league arms.
The Year Phil Neikro Won AND Lost 20 Games
In 1979, Phil Neikro won 21 games and lost 20. The feat is not unique to Neikro though. Wilber Wood did the same thing a few years earlier. But the feat is rare in the live ball era of baseball. Prior to 1920, it happened a lot and before 1900, it really happened a lot. But Neikro's season in 1979 might be the last of its kind in this day of five men rotations and pitch counts and relief specialists. And thus, Neikro's season was special.
The Braves were terrible that season and finished in sixth place for the second straight time under their new manager, Bobby Cox. It was Cox's first stint with the Braves before his side trip to the Blue Jays for a few seasons. But Cox wasn't yet known as a great manager. In fact, if you lived in Atlanta at the time, nobody would even call him a good manager. The Braves lost 94 games and won only 66. Phil Neikro won 30% of them.
Neikro made an incredible 44 starts that season. 33 starts is the modern day norm. Neikro pitched 342 innings. The norm today is around 220. He completed 23 of his starts. He gave an astounding 113 walks and still managed, with all those innings, to post a 3.0 walks per nine innings total. He gave up an astounding 41 homers, or the average number of homers Hank Aaron hit in a season. But probably the most amazing stat of Neikro's season was that he got a decision in 41 of his 44 starts.
Consider that no other Braves' pitcher that season made more than 31 starts. Consider that only one reliever on the team had more appearances (Gene Garber, the closer). Consider that Neikro posted all those innings and all those losses and still had a 120 ERA+ that season. He pitched so many games that he had the fourteenth most plate appearances for the team that season.
In 1979, Neikro faced 1435 batters. Their slash line was: .241/.306/.384. That adds up to an OPS of .691. He averaged 7.77 innings per start. That year he had two or less runs of support from his offense 13 times. He would go 1-11 in those starts. His team would score five runs or less in 29 of his starts. His record in those starts was 7-20. They didn't record pitches thrown in those days. In his game logs for that year, only two games have the amount of pitches recorded. One of them was for 158 pitches. It would be safe to state that Neikro probably averaged around 130 pitches a start. This was just 31 years ago, but there is no relationship to what he did that year and the baseball played today in Major League Baseball.
And the thing of it was, this was nothing new for Neikro. He led the league in innings pitched in 1974, 1977, 1978 and 1979. He led the league in games started in from 1977 through 1980. During those years (77-80), he posted ERA+ figures of 111, 142, 120 and 102. But during those four years, he lost twenty games twice and lost 18 games the other two times. His record during that time was 71-76 though he pitched that well and completed 77 of his starts. He even managed five relief appearances during those years and recorded a save.
Oh, yeah. The Fan left out one pertinent fact about 1979. Phil Neikro was 40 years old at the time. He would pitch eight more seasons after that one including a memorable 1984 where he went 16-8 for the Yankees with a 3.09 ERA (123 ERA+) in 31 starts.
Many will question whether Phil Neikro belongs in the Hall of Fame. But there was nobody else like him. Yes, Wilber Wood was another great knuckleball pitcher, but he never had the breadth of career that Neikro did. Neikro pitched in the big leagues for 24 seasons and won 318 games. Yes, he lost 274 games. But he played for some truly awful teams. His 1979 season will always be a memorable one for this writer. And the Fan truly never expects to see another one like it.
The Braves were terrible that season and finished in sixth place for the second straight time under their new manager, Bobby Cox. It was Cox's first stint with the Braves before his side trip to the Blue Jays for a few seasons. But Cox wasn't yet known as a great manager. In fact, if you lived in Atlanta at the time, nobody would even call him a good manager. The Braves lost 94 games and won only 66. Phil Neikro won 30% of them.
Neikro made an incredible 44 starts that season. 33 starts is the modern day norm. Neikro pitched 342 innings. The norm today is around 220. He completed 23 of his starts. He gave an astounding 113 walks and still managed, with all those innings, to post a 3.0 walks per nine innings total. He gave up an astounding 41 homers, or the average number of homers Hank Aaron hit in a season. But probably the most amazing stat of Neikro's season was that he got a decision in 41 of his 44 starts.
Consider that no other Braves' pitcher that season made more than 31 starts. Consider that only one reliever on the team had more appearances (Gene Garber, the closer). Consider that Neikro posted all those innings and all those losses and still had a 120 ERA+ that season. He pitched so many games that he had the fourteenth most plate appearances for the team that season.
In 1979, Neikro faced 1435 batters. Their slash line was: .241/.306/.384. That adds up to an OPS of .691. He averaged 7.77 innings per start. That year he had two or less runs of support from his offense 13 times. He would go 1-11 in those starts. His team would score five runs or less in 29 of his starts. His record in those starts was 7-20. They didn't record pitches thrown in those days. In his game logs for that year, only two games have the amount of pitches recorded. One of them was for 158 pitches. It would be safe to state that Neikro probably averaged around 130 pitches a start. This was just 31 years ago, but there is no relationship to what he did that year and the baseball played today in Major League Baseball.
And the thing of it was, this was nothing new for Neikro. He led the league in innings pitched in 1974, 1977, 1978 and 1979. He led the league in games started in from 1977 through 1980. During those years (77-80), he posted ERA+ figures of 111, 142, 120 and 102. But during those four years, he lost twenty games twice and lost 18 games the other two times. His record during that time was 71-76 though he pitched that well and completed 77 of his starts. He even managed five relief appearances during those years and recorded a save.
Oh, yeah. The Fan left out one pertinent fact about 1979. Phil Neikro was 40 years old at the time. He would pitch eight more seasons after that one including a memorable 1984 where he went 16-8 for the Yankees with a 3.09 ERA (123 ERA+) in 31 starts.
Many will question whether Phil Neikro belongs in the Hall of Fame. But there was nobody else like him. Yes, Wilber Wood was another great knuckleball pitcher, but he never had the breadth of career that Neikro did. Neikro pitched in the big leagues for 24 seasons and won 318 games. Yes, he lost 274 games. But he played for some truly awful teams. His 1979 season will always be a memorable one for this writer. And the Fan truly never expects to see another one like it.
Nice to See Konerko Stay in Chicago
When a player has played a long time in one city and becomes the face of an organization, it's really hard to see him play someplace else. Tony Gwynn just belonged in a Padres uniform. Biggio belonged in Houston. Jeter belongs in New York. Sometimes it doesn't make fiscal or even competitive sense. But it's still great for the fans. In Paul Konerko's case, the fiscal case doesn't make sense, but at least for a year or two, the competitive decision makes sense for the White Sox.
Konerko is a hard player to figure out. He's hit over .304 one year and then .234 the next. He batted .312 in 2010 after batting .240 just two years ago. But all things considered, other than 2003, Konerko always finishes well above league average in OPS+. He takes his share of walks. usually slugs near .500 or above and according to White Sox fans, plays his position well (though that fact isn't supported by fielding metrics).
The signing also means that Konerko and Dunn can do some damage to AL teams in tandem. If Konerko had left, then you were basically replacing his production with Dunn's leaving the White Sox no better than last year. But the two in tandem gives the White Sox, with their pitching and bullpen, an excellent shot at the AL Central title since the Twins have no improved significantly and need to sign Pavano just to be as good as last year. The Tigers have improved, but don't appear to be significantly better or worse than the White Sox or Twins. Konerko's signing makes a great deal of difference in this division and thus is probably worth the cost to the White Sox.
We won't get into the material costs of signing Konerko. They probably will not work out in the White Sox favor any more than Jeter's contract will be worth the money the Yankees paid. But in this world of free agents, team hopping and instability, it's nice to have one face of a franchise (or two or three) stay in one place for his career.
Konerko is a hard player to figure out. He's hit over .304 one year and then .234 the next. He batted .312 in 2010 after batting .240 just two years ago. But all things considered, other than 2003, Konerko always finishes well above league average in OPS+. He takes his share of walks. usually slugs near .500 or above and according to White Sox fans, plays his position well (though that fact isn't supported by fielding metrics).
The signing also means that Konerko and Dunn can do some damage to AL teams in tandem. If Konerko had left, then you were basically replacing his production with Dunn's leaving the White Sox no better than last year. But the two in tandem gives the White Sox, with their pitching and bullpen, an excellent shot at the AL Central title since the Twins have no improved significantly and need to sign Pavano just to be as good as last year. The Tigers have improved, but don't appear to be significantly better or worse than the White Sox or Twins. Konerko's signing makes a great deal of difference in this division and thus is probably worth the cost to the White Sox.
We won't get into the material costs of signing Konerko. They probably will not work out in the White Sox favor any more than Jeter's contract will be worth the money the Yankees paid. But in this world of free agents, team hopping and instability, it's nice to have one face of a franchise (or two or three) stay in one place for his career.
Some Final Thoughts on Jeter and Werth
Derek Jeter has been the focus of a million stories the last three weeks or so. People wrote daily speculations based on every shred of rumor imaginable. There were some writers that scolded the Yankees for treating Jeter so coldly. But most focused on Jeter not facing reality and for asking for too much. As the Jeter story came to a resolution, then the Washington Nationals signed Jayson Werth to a mega-contract and all heck broke loose. The Nationals and their GM have been under intense condemnation on the deal, its length and its terms.
Let's take the Werth signing first. The Fan can't help but agreeing that the Werth deal is too long and for too much money. It is understandable for other GMs to be outraged. But at the end of the day (and the end of the bandwagon), this Fan can't blame the Nationals for making this deal either. In order for a culture like the Nationals to turn around, you have to turn to people who have been on winning teams. That sounds simple, but when a group of players has never known winning, how would they know how to get there?
Werth has been there. He has been right in the thick of pennant races, playoffs and the World Series (twice). Accepting losing or even expecting to lose will not be a part of his thought processes. The Nationals are making an extended effort to turn their fortunes around. They have drafted strongly (Strasburg, Storen, Harper, etc.) and are building a core of talented young players. There is a definite feeling that Ryan Zimmerman should have been in the MVP conversation after his 2011. He's probably the second or third best third baseman in baseball right now. So the Nationals are building a young core. You need guys like Werth to show the way. He will be the example they all follow.
Jayson Werth is not a superstar. He was paid like one, but he isn't one. But he's a darn good player that will make a difference in Washington.
As for Derek Jeter, this Fan has to admit that there is joy in the fact that it is over and that Jeter will remain with the Yankees. This Fan doesn't fault the Yankees for being tough with negotiations (they had all the leverage) and there is no fault to Jeter for having a figure and parameters that he wanted. But the Fan does take issue with how the Yankees went public with two very inflammatory remarks. The first had to do with the "go explore the market to see if you can do better" statement. The second was the reality pill statement.
Now it's perfectly fair for the Yankees to tell those things to Jeter's agent. But when it is told to the media, it leaves no choice for the fans but to think that Jeter was a jerk who was asking too much. Those statements rightly irked Jeter and never should have been made publicly. It was grandstanding in the worst kind and something that Scott Boras would do. The worst part is that it might have been a calculated move to force Jeter to capitulate knowing that Jeter couldn't take his name being mopped around in the press. And that's pretty low.
The other Fan peeve here is the stupid rule not negotiating with potential free agents until the player's contract is over. The Yankees guarantee extra stress and tension in such situations by having such a strategy. There is no reason why the Yankees and Jeter's agent couldn't have been working on this quietly during the 2010 season. The Yankees can claim such a strategy gives them the best picture of what a player is worth, but that's a bunch of hooey. If this deal had been worked one earlier, none of this Broadway Musical production would have occurred.
Oh well, all's well that ends well, this Fan supposes.
Let's take the Werth signing first. The Fan can't help but agreeing that the Werth deal is too long and for too much money. It is understandable for other GMs to be outraged. But at the end of the day (and the end of the bandwagon), this Fan can't blame the Nationals for making this deal either. In order for a culture like the Nationals to turn around, you have to turn to people who have been on winning teams. That sounds simple, but when a group of players has never known winning, how would they know how to get there?
Werth has been there. He has been right in the thick of pennant races, playoffs and the World Series (twice). Accepting losing or even expecting to lose will not be a part of his thought processes. The Nationals are making an extended effort to turn their fortunes around. They have drafted strongly (Strasburg, Storen, Harper, etc.) and are building a core of talented young players. There is a definite feeling that Ryan Zimmerman should have been in the MVP conversation after his 2011. He's probably the second or third best third baseman in baseball right now. So the Nationals are building a young core. You need guys like Werth to show the way. He will be the example they all follow.
Jayson Werth is not a superstar. He was paid like one, but he isn't one. But he's a darn good player that will make a difference in Washington.
As for Derek Jeter, this Fan has to admit that there is joy in the fact that it is over and that Jeter will remain with the Yankees. This Fan doesn't fault the Yankees for being tough with negotiations (they had all the leverage) and there is no fault to Jeter for having a figure and parameters that he wanted. But the Fan does take issue with how the Yankees went public with two very inflammatory remarks. The first had to do with the "go explore the market to see if you can do better" statement. The second was the reality pill statement.
Now it's perfectly fair for the Yankees to tell those things to Jeter's agent. But when it is told to the media, it leaves no choice for the fans but to think that Jeter was a jerk who was asking too much. Those statements rightly irked Jeter and never should have been made publicly. It was grandstanding in the worst kind and something that Scott Boras would do. The worst part is that it might have been a calculated move to force Jeter to capitulate knowing that Jeter couldn't take his name being mopped around in the press. And that's pretty low.
The other Fan peeve here is the stupid rule not negotiating with potential free agents until the player's contract is over. The Yankees guarantee extra stress and tension in such situations by having such a strategy. There is no reason why the Yankees and Jeter's agent couldn't have been working on this quietly during the 2010 season. The Yankees can claim such a strategy gives them the best picture of what a player is worth, but that's a bunch of hooey. If this deal had been worked one earlier, none of this Broadway Musical production would have occurred.
Oh well, all's well that ends well, this Fan supposes.
Can Carlos Pena Rebound For The Cubs?
The Chicago Cubs picked up free agent first baseman, Carlos Pena, according to reports. The move fills the void left vacant when the Cubs traded Derrek Lee to the Braves last year. The question is whether Pena can rebound from what turned out to be an awful 2010. Pena did hit 28 homers and that should play well in Chicago. And the risk is slight with only a one year commitment. But perhaps Chicago can finally get a break with this signing
The good news is that Carlos Pena has averaged 36 homers and 101 ribbies the last four years along with an average of 93 walks a year. The Cubs will be happy with that kind of performance this year. Plus Pena is a decent first baseman with good range and nice hands around first. But his offensive trend is pretty scary.
Pena has lost at least 19 points on his batting average every year for the last three years culminating with last year's sub-Mendoza finish. Many point to his extremely low BABIP in 2010 as part of the problem. His BABIP was .225 which is ridiculously low. So if you combine a high strikeout rate with a low batting average on the balls you do put in play, then a .199 batting average is easy to understand. But Pena has always been a low BABIP guy with a career mark of .272. Yes, if he can get back to that, his average will improve. But there is another disturbing stat.
For his career, Carlos Pena has hit a line drive 28% of the time he's put the ball in play. Last year, that figure fell to 17%. That's scary. It means that Pena is not squaring up on the ball and hitting the ball more weakly when he doesn't homer. That should be the focus on the Cubs to get Pena to get the good part of the bat on the ball and drive it as much as possible. With his power, he will get his fair share of homers, but he has to do something with the other at bats too.
This may be an unfair observation, but none of Pena's teammates (with the exception of Evan Longoria) had a good year at the plate last year. That being the case, you have to wonder a bit about the kind of hitting instruction that is going on down there in Tampa. Perhaps Pena can be supported better by the staff in Chicago--that is taking for granted that he is good at being open to instruction, which may or may not be the case.
But say Pena can bat at least .230 and walk 90 times and hit 30 homers and drive in his share of runs, the Cubs would be more than happy with that. That kind of production would guarantee a return on their $10 million investment. And of course, that is what the Cubs are counting on. It remains to be seen though, if Carlos Pena has that kind of year left in him.
The good news is that Carlos Pena has averaged 36 homers and 101 ribbies the last four years along with an average of 93 walks a year. The Cubs will be happy with that kind of performance this year. Plus Pena is a decent first baseman with good range and nice hands around first. But his offensive trend is pretty scary.
Pena has lost at least 19 points on his batting average every year for the last three years culminating with last year's sub-Mendoza finish. Many point to his extremely low BABIP in 2010 as part of the problem. His BABIP was .225 which is ridiculously low. So if you combine a high strikeout rate with a low batting average on the balls you do put in play, then a .199 batting average is easy to understand. But Pena has always been a low BABIP guy with a career mark of .272. Yes, if he can get back to that, his average will improve. But there is another disturbing stat.
For his career, Carlos Pena has hit a line drive 28% of the time he's put the ball in play. Last year, that figure fell to 17%. That's scary. It means that Pena is not squaring up on the ball and hitting the ball more weakly when he doesn't homer. That should be the focus on the Cubs to get Pena to get the good part of the bat on the ball and drive it as much as possible. With his power, he will get his fair share of homers, but he has to do something with the other at bats too.
This may be an unfair observation, but none of Pena's teammates (with the exception of Evan Longoria) had a good year at the plate last year. That being the case, you have to wonder a bit about the kind of hitting instruction that is going on down there in Tampa. Perhaps Pena can be supported better by the staff in Chicago--that is taking for granted that he is good at being open to instruction, which may or may not be the case.
But say Pena can bat at least .230 and walk 90 times and hit 30 homers and drive in his share of runs, the Cubs would be more than happy with that. That kind of production would guarantee a return on their $10 million investment. And of course, that is what the Cubs are counting on. It remains to be seen though, if Carlos Pena has that kind of year left in him.
Tuesday, December 07, 2010
Towers Making His Presence Felt In Arizona
Kevin Towers has certainly made an early stamp on the Arizona Diamondbacks since taking over the GM position for that ball club. He inherited a team mired in a woeful mess and has quickly made early steps to address some of their issues. It's not that Josh Byrnes wasn't a good executive. He was and will continue to be in his new assignment. But things didn't go well for him in Arizona and a shift in priorities and expectations are in order.
First, Towers let it be known that the Diamondbacks strikeout ways are over. By declaring that Justin Upton was on the market, he set a tone that the current trend could not continue. His trade of Mark Reynolds to the Orioles sealed the statement louder than anything else. This observer has no doubt that Upton was given a message by seeing his name in the headlines. As for Mark Reynolds, his average should recover some but he has shown no ability to cut down on his unique claim as the biggest strikeout artist of all time. Towers has set the tone that unless a player is willing to improve, he will look elsewhere.
Towers is also in the midst of doing what he did so well in San Diego: Build a bullpen. He got two arms in the Reynolds deal (one outstanding arm) and he just signed J. J. Putz. Putz became just another symbol of all that was wrong with the Mets the past few years. They made a big splash to sign the superlative set up man who picked the wrong time to come up injured. His ineffective year in New York was one of the few he's endured in his career. Finally healthy, Putz was back to his nasty self striking out 65 batters in 60 innings while only allowing 15 walks. He immediately makes the Diamondbacks' bullpen much better. And without a doubt, it couldn't have gotten much worse than it was last year.
Towers has so much experience building teams with modest payrolls into highly competitive teams. The 2010 Padres, though a year removed from Towers' leadership there, were a direct result of his effectiveness. The Diamondbacks and their fans have to be thrilled with Towers on board. More will be written on this team as the roster for 2011 takes more shape. In the meantime, it's fun to watch the man work.
First, Towers let it be known that the Diamondbacks strikeout ways are over. By declaring that Justin Upton was on the market, he set a tone that the current trend could not continue. His trade of Mark Reynolds to the Orioles sealed the statement louder than anything else. This observer has no doubt that Upton was given a message by seeing his name in the headlines. As for Mark Reynolds, his average should recover some but he has shown no ability to cut down on his unique claim as the biggest strikeout artist of all time. Towers has set the tone that unless a player is willing to improve, he will look elsewhere.
Towers is also in the midst of doing what he did so well in San Diego: Build a bullpen. He got two arms in the Reynolds deal (one outstanding arm) and he just signed J. J. Putz. Putz became just another symbol of all that was wrong with the Mets the past few years. They made a big splash to sign the superlative set up man who picked the wrong time to come up injured. His ineffective year in New York was one of the few he's endured in his career. Finally healthy, Putz was back to his nasty self striking out 65 batters in 60 innings while only allowing 15 walks. He immediately makes the Diamondbacks' bullpen much better. And without a doubt, it couldn't have gotten much worse than it was last year.
Towers has so much experience building teams with modest payrolls into highly competitive teams. The 2010 Padres, though a year removed from Towers' leadership there, were a direct result of his effectiveness. The Diamondbacks and their fans have to be thrilled with Towers on board. More will be written on this team as the roster for 2011 takes more shape. In the meantime, it's fun to watch the man work.
Ryan Howard's Contract Absurdity Lingers
The Washington Nationals are certainly getting skewered on their seven year contract given Jayson Werth. Several general managers around baseball were said to be angered and shouting. The Mets' new GM, Sandy Alderson, tongue-and-cheeked about the deficit not coming down in Washington. The deal brought out the litany of other crazy contracts over the years. The A-Rod, Zito, Wells and Park contracts were brought up like they always are. Joe Posnanski coined a new word called, "Texpensive," named in honor of the Mark Teixeira contract. But this writer still finds it absurd that Ryan Howard's contract with Philadelphia is never mentioned. Can someone tell this Fan why that is?
Howard's contract, which keeps him on the Phillies payroll until 2016 (or when he will be 36) pays Howard $18 million in 2011 and $25 million a year from 2012 to 2016. The contract includes an option for 2017 which will cost the Phillies another $10 even if they decide to buy him out. How come this contract is never mentioned? This contract alone will affect future negotiations with anyone who wants Prince Fielder and it certainly will impact any Albert Pujols negotiation. It is among the top five in overly excessive contracts among all active players.
Ryan Howard has been a wonderful slugger for the Phillies. This Fan is not quibbling about that. His four year run from 2006 through 2009 was amazing. But even they did not come near being worth the kind of money that Howard will be making. His numbers fell off a bit in 2010. He hit less homers (31). His RBIs came down to All Star quality (108). His walk rate was down. And according to Fangraphs, his year was worth roughly $8 million. Thats a full $10 million below what he was paid. His high leverage stats were still very good, but not nearly as good as in previous seasons. If 2010 is his new norm, then this contract looks even worse.
Ryan Howard will be paid $143 million from 2011 through 2016. Baseball Prospectus estimates that Howard will be worth $65.14 million during that period. And keep in mind that BP over estimated his 2010 season by nearly 200%. All that money will be tied up with an aging, strikeout-prone, poor fielding first baseman that the Phillies will not be able to move anywhere else.
So, yeah, Jayson Werth's contract may be a bit of a stretch. And a lot of those other deals casually mentioned as a result are costly. But Howard's deal probably cost the Phillies their right fielder and almost certainly will not live up to the performance of the great slugger over the next six years. Pretty soon Cliff Lee will join Howard in the top five of excessive and regrettable contracts. Fans of the Rangers and Yankees should each be hoping the other team wins the sweepstakes. And when Lee gets his deal, this Fan would like to see Howard's contract named among the foolish. Howard will hit a lot of homers for the next six years, but not nearly enough to pay his freight.
Howard's contract, which keeps him on the Phillies payroll until 2016 (or when he will be 36) pays Howard $18 million in 2011 and $25 million a year from 2012 to 2016. The contract includes an option for 2017 which will cost the Phillies another $10 even if they decide to buy him out. How come this contract is never mentioned? This contract alone will affect future negotiations with anyone who wants Prince Fielder and it certainly will impact any Albert Pujols negotiation. It is among the top five in overly excessive contracts among all active players.
Ryan Howard has been a wonderful slugger for the Phillies. This Fan is not quibbling about that. His four year run from 2006 through 2009 was amazing. But even they did not come near being worth the kind of money that Howard will be making. His numbers fell off a bit in 2010. He hit less homers (31). His RBIs came down to All Star quality (108). His walk rate was down. And according to Fangraphs, his year was worth roughly $8 million. Thats a full $10 million below what he was paid. His high leverage stats were still very good, but not nearly as good as in previous seasons. If 2010 is his new norm, then this contract looks even worse.
Ryan Howard will be paid $143 million from 2011 through 2016. Baseball Prospectus estimates that Howard will be worth $65.14 million during that period. And keep in mind that BP over estimated his 2010 season by nearly 200%. All that money will be tied up with an aging, strikeout-prone, poor fielding first baseman that the Phillies will not be able to move anywhere else.
So, yeah, Jayson Werth's contract may be a bit of a stretch. And a lot of those other deals casually mentioned as a result are costly. But Howard's deal probably cost the Phillies their right fielder and almost certainly will not live up to the performance of the great slugger over the next six years. Pretty soon Cliff Lee will join Howard in the top five of excessive and regrettable contracts. Fans of the Rangers and Yankees should each be hoping the other team wins the sweepstakes. And when Lee gets his deal, this Fan would like to see Howard's contract named among the foolish. Howard will hit a lot of homers for the next six years, but not nearly enough to pay his freight.
Monday, December 06, 2010
Shaun Marcum - Nice Pick Up for Brewers
The Blue Jays traded their opening day starter for a blue chip prospect and the Brewers got the pitching help they desperately needed. While losing Shaun Marcum to the Brewers, the Blue Jays seemed to weaken themselves, but as we shall see, it's not going to be as big a loss for the Blue Jays as it seems. Meanwhile, pitchers going to the National League from the tough American League East seem to thrive. There is nothing but upside for the Brewers.
By all accounts, Marcum had a terrific 2010 season and all his peripherals were great for his comeback season after losing time to Tommy John surgery. All the numbers are terrific starting with his 1.247 WHIP and 3.84 strikeout to walk ratio. Marcum throws strikes and he will pay occasionally with a somewhat high homer rate. But he's easily better than anything the Brewers had behind Yovanni Gallardo. But why would the Blue Jays give him up?
Essentially, the Blue Jays traded from depth as they have a wealth of good young pitching talent. Plus, Marcum did not help the team in the AL East. Yes, Marcum was 3-0 against the Orioles, but against the Yankees, Red Sox and Bay Rays, he was a combined 1-5. His ERA against Boston was 5.55 with seven homers allowed in five starts. He only started one game against the Yankees but he lost it and had a 7.50 ERA in that game. Against the Bay Rays, he had an ERA of 5.55 in four starts and lost both of his decisions. It's all well and good to have a solid pitcher like Marcum, but you have to be able to beat your division rivals too.
The Brewers have to like that Marcum was 3-0 in four interleague starts. He beat the Padres, the Diamondbacks and the Phillies and had a strong start against the Giants in a no decision. He averaged more than nine strikeouts per nine innings in his outings against NL opponents.
The Blue Jays get a terrific prospect in Brett Lawrie, considered the Brewers second best prospect. Lawrie is only 20 years old and he's a bit without a position. He started as a catcher but has been playing second in the minors. Most project him as a corner outfielder. But the Jays have to love that Lawrie is Canadian and can hit the stuffing out of the ball. He has great doubles and triples power and could develop homer potential as he gets older. He's shown fair patience at the plate but strikes out a bit too much. Lawrie could be a star for the Blue Jays in a year or two and give them a home town favorite. If Aaron Hill doesn't bounce back, he could play second for the Blue Jays.
This is a great deal for the Brewers. Marcum is only 29 and has a brand new elbow that should be able to give them reliable starts from the start of the season on. The Blue Jays give up starting depth they can replace and get a great prospect. There is little downside to find in this deal for either team.
By all accounts, Marcum had a terrific 2010 season and all his peripherals were great for his comeback season after losing time to Tommy John surgery. All the numbers are terrific starting with his 1.247 WHIP and 3.84 strikeout to walk ratio. Marcum throws strikes and he will pay occasionally with a somewhat high homer rate. But he's easily better than anything the Brewers had behind Yovanni Gallardo. But why would the Blue Jays give him up?
Essentially, the Blue Jays traded from depth as they have a wealth of good young pitching talent. Plus, Marcum did not help the team in the AL East. Yes, Marcum was 3-0 against the Orioles, but against the Yankees, Red Sox and Bay Rays, he was a combined 1-5. His ERA against Boston was 5.55 with seven homers allowed in five starts. He only started one game against the Yankees but he lost it and had a 7.50 ERA in that game. Against the Bay Rays, he had an ERA of 5.55 in four starts and lost both of his decisions. It's all well and good to have a solid pitcher like Marcum, but you have to be able to beat your division rivals too.
The Brewers have to like that Marcum was 3-0 in four interleague starts. He beat the Padres, the Diamondbacks and the Phillies and had a strong start against the Giants in a no decision. He averaged more than nine strikeouts per nine innings in his outings against NL opponents.
The Blue Jays get a terrific prospect in Brett Lawrie, considered the Brewers second best prospect. Lawrie is only 20 years old and he's a bit without a position. He started as a catcher but has been playing second in the minors. Most project him as a corner outfielder. But the Jays have to love that Lawrie is Canadian and can hit the stuffing out of the ball. He has great doubles and triples power and could develop homer potential as he gets older. He's shown fair patience at the plate but strikes out a bit too much. Lawrie could be a star for the Blue Jays in a year or two and give them a home town favorite. If Aaron Hill doesn't bounce back, he could play second for the Blue Jays.
This is a great deal for the Brewers. Marcum is only 29 and has a brand new elbow that should be able to give them reliable starts from the start of the season on. The Blue Jays give up starting depth they can replace and get a great prospect. There is little downside to find in this deal for either team.
Sunday, December 05, 2010
The Angels Are Awfully Quiet
When is the last time the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on the west coast of the United States of America have been in the news? It's been a long time. They were rumored to be in on the Carl Crawford sweepstakes, but nothing has been heard since that early rumor. The Dodgers have been in the news several times but so far nothing from Moreno's Marauders.
According to Buster Olney, the Angels are abandoning their recent practice of making an offer, having it be a final offer and setting a deadline. Olney says there will be more give and take. If there is some give and take going on, they are very good at keeping the maneuverings off of the news wires. The Angels need a third baseman and they need pitching. The Fan would add catching to that list, but perhaps this will be the year of Hank Conger.
Getting Kendry Morales back will be like making a free agent signing because he's a heck of a player. So first base is covered. Hunter is all set in right. Bourjos, the young center fielder, showed some promise last year in his debut, but he didn't hit for average. The Angels will probably let him start the year in center and see what happens. Hopefully, that will work out better than the Brandon Wood situation. Kendrick is fine for now at second and Erick Aybar is just okay as a shortstop. That all leaves left field, third base and catcher as weak spots.
If the Angels could land Crawford, he would be a dynamic upgrade in left. Abreu could DH at that point. Abreu has to do something but play left field. His age is really catching up with him. Adrian Beltre would be a great pick up at third too. If the Angels could land Crawford AND Beltre, they would vault right up there with the Rangers again as a real contender for the AL West.
But they need pitching too. The bullpen was bad last year. There is no better way to say it. But there are a lot of relievers out there on the market and there is no reason why the Angels can't rebuild a bullpen. The rotation has the makings to be very good. Kazmir should be dropped as that experiment is not going well. But Weaver is one of the elite pitchers in the AL and Santana, Pineiro and Haran make them solid 1-4. They just need to come up with a fifth. Their best pitching prospects are not yet available. But a flyer on some of the other borderline starters out there could work out just as well or better than Kazmir.
As they stand now, the Angels don't appear to have the talent to keep up with the Rangers and that's why it must be a little disconcerting for Angels' fans to have heard so little to this point. But the good news is that the Angels are just two moves away from being a really good team. The question is whether they can or want to get that done.
According to Buster Olney, the Angels are abandoning their recent practice of making an offer, having it be a final offer and setting a deadline. Olney says there will be more give and take. If there is some give and take going on, they are very good at keeping the maneuverings off of the news wires. The Angels need a third baseman and they need pitching. The Fan would add catching to that list, but perhaps this will be the year of Hank Conger.
Getting Kendry Morales back will be like making a free agent signing because he's a heck of a player. So first base is covered. Hunter is all set in right. Bourjos, the young center fielder, showed some promise last year in his debut, but he didn't hit for average. The Angels will probably let him start the year in center and see what happens. Hopefully, that will work out better than the Brandon Wood situation. Kendrick is fine for now at second and Erick Aybar is just okay as a shortstop. That all leaves left field, third base and catcher as weak spots.
If the Angels could land Crawford, he would be a dynamic upgrade in left. Abreu could DH at that point. Abreu has to do something but play left field. His age is really catching up with him. Adrian Beltre would be a great pick up at third too. If the Angels could land Crawford AND Beltre, they would vault right up there with the Rangers again as a real contender for the AL West.
But they need pitching too. The bullpen was bad last year. There is no better way to say it. But there are a lot of relievers out there on the market and there is no reason why the Angels can't rebuild a bullpen. The rotation has the makings to be very good. Kazmir should be dropped as that experiment is not going well. But Weaver is one of the elite pitchers in the AL and Santana, Pineiro and Haran make them solid 1-4. They just need to come up with a fifth. Their best pitching prospects are not yet available. But a flyer on some of the other borderline starters out there could work out just as well or better than Kazmir.
As they stand now, the Angels don't appear to have the talent to keep up with the Rangers and that's why it must be a little disconcerting for Angels' fans to have heard so little to this point. But the good news is that the Angels are just two moves away from being a really good team. The question is whether they can or want to get that done.
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