Let's Slow Down on Salvador Perez

Kansas City Royal fans have a lot to be excited about with the approaching 2012 season. They have a roster full of exciting, young player with more on the way. And now the Royals are taking a page out of the Rays' small market handbook by extending contracts to young players. It was announced today that Salvador Perez was signed through his control years with a five year deal that will pay him $7 million. But some are ridiculing Perez for leaving money on the table. For example, here is a Jon Heyman tweet.

One agent on royals catcher salvador perez's $7M, 5-yr deal: "(royals gm) dayton moore must have been wearing a ski mask."
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) March 2, 2012

Someone has to be the voice of sanity here. Salvador Perez has played 39 games at the major league level. And that was after playing only 12 games at the Triple A level. Why yes, Perez set the world on fire in his 39 major league games. Yes, he put up a slash line of .331/.361/.473 after putting up a similar line together in his 12 Triple A games. As nice as that looks, it's a terribly small sample size to be getting this excited. 

It's obvious that the Royals believe in this 21 year old Venezuelan. The team signed him when he was sixteen years old and they have gotten to see him play all through their minor league system. And catching is a premium need throughout Major League Baseball. Always has been. Always will be. So it makes sense for the Royals to tie him up for the next five years. But the rate is very reasonable considering the risk. And there is considerable risk.

For one, Perez has no plate discipline. You can't call his 4 percent walk rate for the Royals a small sample size because that rate is consistent for his entire minor league career. Fangraphs has him swinging at nearly 43 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. PitchF/X has him at nearly 38 percent. Whichever system you go by, that's a lot of swinging at non-strikes. It is very difficult for players of this style of offensive game to develop discipline at the plate as the years go by. 

That said, there also has to be regression for his batting average once he gets more playing time. It would seem to be difficult to sustain a .362 BABIP over time. The one caveat with saying that is that Perez did whistle line drives at a 29 percent rate, which is extremely high. If that's the real Perez, then perhaps he can sustain the BABIP. But that doesn't seem likely either. What this observer sees is a guy who got extremely hot at the plate for 51 games last season between Triple A and the majors. Shouldn't we at least see how that pans out with more service time before we all jump on this bandwagon?

The next question is what kind of receiver he is. Perez only threw out 21 percent of base steal attempts last season. That's not very good. But his minor league record at such events is higher. But even there, his success rate lessened the higher he went in the minors and was at 33 percent in Triple A. Of course, a runner's success rate is due as much to the pitcher as it is the catcher, so it's hard to hold that against Perez.

Perez only made two errors in 39 games, so that's a good fielding percentage. Baseball-reference.com assigned him a negative value for his defense while Fangraphs gave him a positive value. If we average them out, Perez seems like a decent receiver. Since he caught so few innings, there isn't any framing value or blocking pitches in the dirt value was can gain for insight. He allowed only two passed balls but eighteen wild pitches. The latter seems high. 

The bottom line here is that Salvador Perez is just a fledgling major league catcher. If left to his own devices, he would be looking at minimum salary for the next two to three years as he won't be eligible for arbitration until 2017. The Royals have taken an appropriate risk but not an extravagant one. Perez will get a bump in salary from what he would have made for the next few years. That should be enough time for the Royals to figure out what kind of player they have in Perez. 

Odds are Long on Kendrys Morales Comeback

Bobby Abreu is an unhappy guy right now. His role with the Angels will be diminished since the Angels signed Albert Pujols. The Pujols signing created a domino effect that pushed Mark Trumbo off of first base and into an already crowded outfield picture. The picture gets further complicated by the expected return of Kendrys Morales from an injury saga that resulted on a leap of joy following a walk off home run early in the 2010 season. Morales is being pushed as the designated hitter. But Bobby Abreu should sit tight. To expect any kind of comeback from Morales seems like very long odds.

It is not historically unusual for a player to miss as much time as Morales has and come back to be productive. Heck, during and after World War II, it happened all the time. In more recent times, Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals missed a long time and came back to be a terrific starter for that team. But even so, the injury to Kendrys Morales involved one of his wheels and the guy is only recently getting back to running and will soon test his recovery by running the bases. Does that sound as scary to you as it does here? The legs are the most important aspect of a ball player. A pitcher gets his drive from his legs and the same for a batter. And Morales has had multiple surgeries on his injured ankle. It's one thing to consider running. It's another to consider starting from that far back to actually playing the game.

For fascinating stuff, simply look at projections for Morales for 2012. Bill James is typically bullish. The zen master projects Morales to hit a slash line of, .296/.341/.504 in 141 games played. Holy cow! If Morales could come close to that number of games played and production, the Angels should regain the top spot in the division. But is that realistic? Not from this basement office chair.

ZiPS projections are a bit more cautious. That projection has Morales at, .274/.321/.455 in 87 games. RotoChamp is even more ambitious than Bill James and projects Morales at, .298/.356/.528 in 436 plate appearances. Steamer Projections seem to be the most cautious with a projection of only 246 plate appearances at, .282/.338/.484. To round out our projection field, we end at Baseball Prospectus which has Morales at, .283/.328/.469 in 350 plate appearances.

All these projections listed, even the most cautious, assume that Morales will be able to come back and be immediately close to as effective a hitter as he was before he was injured. The most cautious still thinks he will attain 246 plate appearances while doing so. That seems like a stretch to anyone's imagination. Granted, those people are all smart people. They have all earned the respect they have in the baseball writing and analysis world. But this observer thinks they are all crazy on this one.

First, Kendrys Morales has to prove he can even play baseball again. He hasn't done that yet. So that is still an open question. Secondly, once Morales can prove he can play baseball, to expect him to play close to his former ability after nearly two years of an absence seems a stretch.

Look, we all root for the comeback story and therefore, we all hope that Kendrys Morales can resume what was once a promising career. That career was derailed in one of the freakiest accidents ever to occur on a baseball field. But the reality is that Morales first has to prove he is physically able to play and then prove he can still perform at the high level that all these folks expect. If this writer was a betting man, Bobby Abreu should keep his bat and batting gloves warm in 2012. He's going to need them more than the Angels think.

BBA Linkfest - March of the Generals

Can you believe it is March!? How awesome is that? For those of us that live way up north, that extra day in February was simply an extra day of winter. But March brings hope. Soon Spring Training baseball will be on MLB.tv and spring will really feel like it's almost here. It is only fitting that on such a lovely day of hopefulness, the latest round of links are presented from around the General Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. What can be better than to contemplate a new year of baseball with a go round of great writing from around the world? Click once. Click often. And enjoy.

We will start our journey with Diamond Hoggers where TheNaturalMevs tells us that Jason Heyward is 90 percent back. 

Dugout 24 celebrated Leap Day by going back in time to 1972 when Henry Aaron became the highest paid player in baseball.

The OCP, a writer over at For Baseball Junkies worries over baseball's credibility after the Bruan situation.

The Kansas City Royals' projected lineup is the topic of a post over at The Baseball Index. The Royals are one team this Fan is looking forward to seeing in 2012.

Over at Going Yard, the writer is still upset about the Ryan Braun incident. Find out why and who he blames.

The Golden Sombrero has had one great series after another this off season. There were the top 100 prospects. There were draft previews. Now check out Mike Rosenbaum's Spring Training Prospect Invite series. Fantastic.

The Hall of Very Good just can't put Jose Canseco behind them. Every time the site tries, Canseco reels them back in. What did he do now? Check it out.

The terrific Russ Blatt has his own take on the Red Sox decision to ban beer from the clubhouse in 2012. 85% Sports.

Ryan Sendek from Analysis Around the Horn has a great multimedia entry called, "The Boy and His Baseball Game." Always good stuff from Ryan.

Sooze continues her Haiku baseball previews over at Babes Love Baseball. Love, love, love this series.

This Fan's buddy, Daniel, has a really unique mind. First he comes up with the Baseball Solstice. Now he is remaking the sky with baseball constellations. There is a fine line between genius and madness. Check out The Ball Caps Blog. 

Speaking of genius, check out Stevo-Sama's recap of a game played in the Australian Baseball League playoffs. The boy from The Baseball Enthusiast sure can write!

Baseball Unrated continues there position by position rankings of fantasy baseball players. This week, it's first base. 

Over at Baseblog, Justin Jabs shares his two favorite spring stories. Good stuff!

In a great read, Kyle Davis of Call to the Pen wonders if Zack Greinke has a chance to win the Cy Young Award this coming season. Great analysis.

Since there was just a major documentary on television about the Amish, it seems only relevant that Che Palle! has posted a great picture of Buck Showalter signing autographs. Hey, Mario, have you discovered The Garfoose in Italy yet? 

Matt Whitener of Cheap.Seats.Please. has the post of the week that caps off Black History Month with a bang. You've got to read this one!

Curly Bender of Crum-Bum Beat continues his all-time pitching rotation series with a surprising conclusion about the 1971 Baltimore Orioles' staff. Awesome post.

Theo has some fascinating thoughts about the Ryan Zimmerman extension in a thoroughly satisfying post over at Hot Corner Harbor.

Not only is this Fan a friend of the author of Left Field, but this Fan is a avid Fan of the guy's writing. Case in point is a terrific read this week about how a childhood game helped fuel the sabermetric age. 

A great post over at Major League A**Holes dares to dream about the 2012 Chicago White Sox. 

Jonathan Mitchell of MLB Dirt has the touching story of the month. Now let's hope the subject's eye is okay.

Sam Evans wonders why Tom Glavine is still underrated among baseball fans everywhere. He poses an excellent question and has the analysis over at MLB Reports.

Niktig of Niktig's Baseball Blog gives us his catching fantasy rankings. Which only confirms this Fans confusion with the whole fantasy baseball thing. Miguel Montero, eight?? Russell Martin, seventeenth??

Old Time Family Baseball talks about one of this Fan's favorite baseball stories - Jamie Moyer. Awesome! Especially a part of Moyer's history that few of us knew.

Ron over at Pop Fly Boys writes about Baseball's Golden Age this week. Great post, Ron.

In this Fan's favorite post this week at his favorite site, The Platoon Advantage, TCM gives his annual review of off season rankings for each franchise. He rated the Twins too high, but we can forgive him that, especially since who he picked for number one.

Replacement Level Baseball Blog continues its series of baseball previews. This time it's the AL East. Agree with the conclusions listed there.

The Sports Banter found a twin brother of agent, Scott Boras. Yikes! Could the world survive a second one?

Sully wants his beloved Terry Francona to shut up. Oof. Check out the details over at Sully Baseball.

Jeff Dickinson has a great post over at Through the Fence Baseball on how the Dodgers can be better in 2012. 

Mike Cardano of the X-Log isn't exactly a fan of extra playoff spots. Right with you there, pal.

Our newest member to the General Chapter is The Wolf's Den. We welcome them as their inaugural link is a tribute to Gary Carter. 

And finally, since this writer is becoming a disciple of Bill Ivie's school of self-promotion, here is a link to a game in 1995 written by yours truly on one of his other employment venues. 

Have a great week, everyone.

Jason Varitek Perspective

Jason Varitek is set to retire tomorrow from Major League Baseball and of course, such news always requires some sort of retrospective analysis. Was he a Hall of Fame player? Where does he rank among catchers of his generation? Yes, such news is always our cue to write something to sum up a career. Such retrospectives are complicated when such a retiring player played for a high profile team. And few teams have had a higher profile than the Boston Red Sox during Varitek's career. When that happens, it becomes hard to sort through the hype of it all. Thanks to the East Coast Bias, the Red Sox and Yankees were the greatest show on earth during the time Varitek played in Boston. How can any perspective be gained with that kind of side show?

What did we hear during all of that hype? Varitek was the captain of the Red Sox. He was the leader of the pitching staff. He was the heart of the Boston Red Sox. His pitchers loved working with him. Perspective on Jason Varitek is just as difficult as it was over a month ago when Jorge Posada retired. Back then, this space concluded that Posada did not have a Hall of Fame career. Well, if Posada is not a Hall of Fame catcher, than neither is Jason Varitek, whose statistical totals pale in comparison to Posada. In fact, Varitek's closest comparable as a catcher is Ramon Hernandez and nobody is going to promote Hernandez for the Hall of Fame.

This space has also promoted the fantastic work of Mike Fast on framing pitches (Varitek was not very good in that study) and Bojan Koprivia's study of blocking pitches in the dirt (Varitek was just above league average). Baseball-reference.com lists Varitek as a catcher with a total negative value for his defense over his career. Fangraphs.com rated his defense even worse. Varitek's ability to throw out base runners was legendary in its awfulness. But in the end, does any of that matter? If not, than what does?

How about the fact that Jason Varitek caught Pedro Martinez 168 times. And in those games, Martinez had his highest strikeout to walk ratio and his lowest ERA of any catcher he ever threw to. That was magic. But was that Pedro's magic or was it a combination of Pedro and his catcher? Curt Schilling had three catchers that caught him more than 90 times. Of the three, Schilling had the highest strikeout to walk ratio with Varitek than the other two. Coincidence? Perhaps. Who knows. But it was fun to watch, wasn't it? Varitek was a part of the battery of the two best Red Sox pitchers of this recent generation.

For this observer, sometimes you have to get beyond the statistics that we all hang our hats on these days. Yes, Varitek had a career OPS+ of 98. Yes, when you add it all together, he wasn't that great defensively. No, he wasn't a Hall of Fame player. But during his time in Boston, the Red Sox won two World Series titles. Baseball is a team sport. It takes more than a great player for a team to win it all. It takes a team. Jason Varitek was a part of those teams. For generations of Red Sox fans, the team's heroics of 2004 and 2007 put an end to a long drought and a curse. Despite what the stats say or don't say, Jason Varitek was a part of that story. And this week a part of that story will fade away into history. Yaz might be in the Hall of Fame, but Jason Varitek will retire with two rings. That's the only perspective worth talking about.

The Neikro and Perry Brothers

Let us take a little bit of a pause between the end of the off season and the beginning of Spring Training baseball games and look at two amazing brother acts of the 1960s, 70s and 80s. No brother acts won more games pitching than the Neikro brothers, Phil and Joe. But right behind them are the Perry brothers, Jim and Gaylord. Two are in the Hall of Fame, two were known "cheaters" and all together, these four men combined to win 1,068 games, pitch 17,534 innings, 769 complete games and 159 shutouts. Remarkable. The two sets of brothers total statistics are amazingly close considering how long they pitched. Just for the fun of it, let's break it all down and compare the Perry brothers to the Neikro brothers.

First, a little background. The Neikro brothers were from Ohio. Phil was born in 1939 and Joe in 1944. Phil was signed as a free agent by the Braves in 1958 and made his debut in the majors in 1964. The Braves were still in Milwaukee. Phil pitched 24 seasons and retired after the 1987 season. Joe was drafted by the Cubs in 1966 and pitched 22 seasons, retiring after the 1988 season.

The Perry brothers were both born and raised in Williamston, North Carolina. Jim was born in 1935 and Gaylord in 1938. Jim was signed by the Cleveland Indians in 1956 and made his debut in 1959. His seventeen year career ended after the 1975 season. Gaylord was signed by the Giants in 1958 and made his major league debut in 1962. He pitched 22 years and retired after the 1983 season. So the Perrys were slightly older and started their careers slightly earlier. But you can safely state that all four are from the same baseball generation and faced similar competition for their careers.

The Neikro brothers, of course, will forever be the answer to the trivia question as to which set of brothers have the most combined wins pitching in Major League Baseball. They finished with 539 combined wins or just ten more than the Perry brothers. But as we should all know by now, a pitcher's won-loss record is not entirely of a pitcher's own doing. A lot depends on the team, the park, his fielders and other factors. We now have other tools that can measure careers relative to those other factors. There is WAR (wins above replacement), ERA+ and other things we can look at. Again, the striking thing about these two sets of brothers is how similar their statistics are. Let's list a few of them.

• Jim Perry: 215-174, 3.45 ERA, 109 complete games, 32 shutouts, 10 saves, 1.255 WHIP, 8.6 hits per nine innings, 2.7 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 1.58 K/BB ratio, 106 ERA+, 33.3 bWAR.
• Gaylord Perry: 314-265, 3.11 ERA, 303 complete games, 53 shutouts, 11 saves, 1.181 WHIP, 8.3 hits per nine, 2.3 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 2.56 K/BB ratio, 117 ERA+, 96.3 bWAR.
• Joe Neikro: 221-204, 3.59 ERA, 103 complete games, 29 shutouts, 16 saves, 1.319 WHIP, 8.7 hits per nine innings, 3.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 1.38 K/BB ratio, 98 ERA+, 30.2 bWAR
• Phil Neikro: 318-274, 3.35 ERA, 245 complete games, 45 shutouts, 29 saves, 1.268 WHIP, 8.4 hits per nine innings, 3.0 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.85 K/BB ratio, 115 ERA+, 96.8 bWAR

How remarkably close are those numbers! The Perrys combined for 129.6 bWAR, the Neikros, 127 bWAR. Look at how close their hits per nine rates were! And one stat that wasn't mentioned, this quartet's homers per nine innings are identical. Gaylord (0.7), Jim (0.8), Phil (0,8), Joe (0.7). 

It's a shame to give one set of brothers the edge, but history has already done that by listing the Neikros as the number one winning duo. So, we have to even the score a little bit. The Perrys had 2.6 more combined bWAR compiled in 363 less innings pitched. With Joe's 98 ERA+ total, you have to give the Perrys the edge there too. Between them Gaylord (2) and Jim (1) won three Cy Young Awards. The Neikros didn't win any. Both Joe and Phil each had one second place finish. Both Phil Neikro and Gaylord Perry were selected to five All Star squads. Jim Perry was elected to three, but Joe Neikro never made the All Star team. Phil was the only one of the four to win a Gold Glove and he won five of those.

There is not much to gain by looking at their post season records. The Perry brothers had limited appearances in the post season and both had an ERA over six in their small sample sizes. Phil Neikro started two games in the post season, pitched well, but never won a post season game. Joe Neikro pitched twenty innings in the post season and never gave up a run. But he didn't get any wins either. 

What about batting? Not much to see there. The Neikro brothers had a combined bWAR of -5.8 as batters and the Perry brothers, a combined -4.3 bWAR. The Perry brothers did hit eleven combined homers though whereas the Neikro brothers only hit one each. Put it all together and you have a slight edge to the Perry brothers as the better pair, but it isn't by very much.

Of course, both Gaylord Perry and Joe Neikro were suspended for doctoring baseballs. But that didn't keep Gaylord out of the Hall of Fame. Let's just wrap this up by stating matter-of-factly that we will probably never see two sets of brothers pitch in the same era like that again with that kind of longevity and that kind of success. The two sets of brothers are a remarkable story taken together. And it's a story unique to baseball history.

Some Perry/Neikro trivia:

• Which is the only one of the four never to pitch for the Yankees? Jim Perry.
• Which is the only one of the four never to pitch for the Braves? Jim Perry.
• Which is the only one of the four never to pitch for the Indians? Joe Neikro.
• Which set of brothers had more twenty-win seasons? The Perrys, six to five.
• Which is the only one to lose twenty games in a season? Phil Neikro. He did it twice. Gaylord Perry once lost 19 games.
• Which of the four never had a 40-start season? Joe Neikro. Phil had forty or more three times, Gaylord also did it three times and Jim did it once.
• Which is the only one of the four to win an ERA title? Phil Neikro in 1967.
• Which is the only one of the four to lead the league in strikeouts? Phil Neikro in 1977.
• The quartet won 196 total games as pitchers over the age of 39. Phil won 121 of those. Jim Perry was the only one of the quartet not to pitch past the age of 39.

Staying on the Colby Rasmus Bandwagon

The St. Louis Cardinals are in many ways the perfect organization. The team has great fans, great baseball writers and a very long tradition. The Cardinals have had great success over the years and it's extremely hard to find fault with a team that just won another World Series title for one of the best cities in America. But in many ways, it's all that tradition and richness of history that ran against Colby Rasmus in his tenure there. Rasmus came down on the wrong side of the bandwagon.

When a city's love affair with a baseball team is that rosy, how can a player who falls into a bad light survive? How can that player do anything right once he goes afoul of all of that? He can't. But as written here, here and originally here, this outsider has long supported Rasmus. Heck, somebody has to. Along with the support of the player comes the acknowledgement that without having first hand access to the inner workings of the Cardinals, there is no way of stating matter-of-factly who was at fault in the fall from grace of Colby Rasmus in St. Louis.

This, of course, runs right in the face of the opinion of the many friends that have been made with those who write in support of the Cardinals. Colby Rasmus was the problem they all believe. And it's not just the writers and bloggers of the team that we're fighting here. There is also the Cardinal fans who populate Twitter who were mostly vicious in any tweets made that included Rasmus in contrast to the tremendous run the Cardinals made to get into the playoffs in 2011 and the serendipitous post season that followed. Colby Rasmus was ridiculed and lambasted with joy during that run. Why exactly?

Okay, it's easy to side with Tony La Russa and the Cardinals in that Colby Rasmus himself was the problem (followed closely by his dad). La Russa is one of the most successful managers in history. He's a sure-fire Hall of Fame kind of manager. And La Russa was an institution in St. Louis. But there are two things that are odd about saying that. First, everyone knows that other players have run afoul of La Russa. There was Ozzie Smith and Scott Rolen. How could anyone think that La Russa could not possibly have any blame in the Rasmus fiasco? Secondly, La Russa was not universally loved by the writers and fans of the Cardinals. So why then do all give Rasmus the villain hat? It is hard to understand.

Those who banged on Rasmus had plenty of fodder when the player went to the Blue Jays and bombed there for the remainder of 2011. See? Rasmus is a bum, right? But what if he wasn't? What if there is some fault in how he was treated in St. Louis? Can we at least entertain the possibility? John Lott of the National Post reported on a long press session Rasmus had yesterday. If you had to go by just the comments by Cardinal fans on Twitter yesterday, Rasmus blasted the Cardinals in his press session. After re-reading Lott's report over a few times, how do you make that conclusion? All this observer can see is a guy who lost his joy while playing for the Cardinals and wants to get it back.

After reading his words and his praise for Jose Bautista, is this observer the only one who could read between the lines and tell he didn't feel the same way about Albert Pujols? Can't anyone else see the angst in that Rasmus never felt comfortable playing for La Russa or was never given the belief that he belonged? From this vantage point, it's impossible to get past the fact that Colby Rasmus was given nothing but praise for his make up as a person before he was a Cardinal. Scouts loved him as a person and felt that his make up was one of his strengths. How did Rasmus go from those opinions to the opinions now openly expressed by people who support the Cardinals?

All this writer wants is for people to at least entertain the possibility that what happened in St. Louis with Colby Rasmus was not entirely the player's fault. That's all. There is the general belief here that there are always two sides of a story. Sure, there is a possibility that Colby Rasmus was the problem. But there is just as much of a possibility that he wasn't entirely. Can't we at least agree on that since none of us really knows?

It is hoped here that Colby Rasmus finds that joy again in playing baseball in Toronto and that he can fulfill his potential. Success is always much more fun to trumpet than failure. At least it is in this house.

Bearish on the Blue Jays in 2012

The Toronto Blue Jays' general manager, Alex Anthopoulos, is on everyone's list of up and coming baseball executives. He's already made some stunning coups like dumping Vernon Wells on the Angels and has piled up draft picks like they were trinkets at a yard sale. And there is optimism that the Blue Jays are on the right track of becoming a force again in the American League. But looking at this year's roster heading into the 2012, the payoff won't come this season.

Which seems strange to type. Every preseason, this space has provided optimistic outlooks for the Blue Jays. Last season's preseason projections that the Blue Jays would finish behind Baltimore were cited here as absurd, and they proved to be so. It was thought here that if there was one more wild card spot, the Blue Jays would be the one to benefit. In the end, if the toughest division in baseball, the Blue Jays won 81 games. They won't win 81 games this season. Are the Blue Jays doing the right things? Yes, it seems. But the fans there will have to wait it out through a season of mediocrity.

Yes, the Blue Jays have one of the best players in baseball in Jose Bautista. Buatista proved the doubters wrong last year and followed up his 54 homer season in 2010 with another 43 in 2011. He again led the American League in slugging and OPS. Look for more of the same in 2012 but unless he gets some help in that line up, his chances will get diminished with each passing month. He was walked intentionally 24 times last season and many of his amazing 108 walks that weren't "intentional" were certainly of that variety though not official. Those diminishing opportunities seemed to get to Bautista last year as the season wore on as his second half was mundane by his standards with a .257/.419/.477 slash line. And those hitting around Bautista haven't really changed any.

Adam Lind will still be hitting behind Bautista and has now endured two sub-par seasons in a row after posting a .932 OPS in 2009. The last two years were 200 points below that. After posting a .370 on-base percentage in 2009, Lind has not even reached .300 in that category for the past two seasons. Lind's precipitous drop in on-base percentage reflects the malaise in that category for the entire team. The Blue Jays as a team had a .312 on-base percentage in 2010 and followed that up with a .317 mark in 2011 despite Bautista drawing over a hundred walks in both seasons. In fact, Bautista accounted for a full 25 percent of his team's walks.

Having a full season of Brett Lawrie will help. Despite playing only 43 games last season, Lawrie still came in third on his team in WAR for position players. But Lawrie's terrific introduction into the majors last season builds some expectations he might not be able to reach. The Blue Jays would be happy if he bats .280 with a .350 on-base percentage over a full season and can slug around .500. Lawrie will help the Blue Jays in 2012, but it won't be enough.

Let's look at the rest of the position players. Yunel Escobar has rebounded nicely after the young shortstop was banished out of Bobby Cox's sight in 2010. He had a very good season last year and was surprisingly second on the team in walks with 61. His season last year certainly put him in the top five among AL shortstops. If he can continue that kind of play, he will give the Blue Jays a dynamic left side of the infield with Lawrie. But the right side of the infield is not nearly as strong with Lind at first and Kelly Johnson at second.

Kelly Johnson has improved his fielding since his Atlanta days but no one knows if Johnson is the .866 OPS guy he was for Arizona in 2010 or the .717 guy he was last year. Most projections split the difference (naturally) and suffice it to say the Blue Jays would be happy with that. Johnson is certainly an improvement over what Aaron Hill gave the Blue Jays his last couple of seasons in Toronto.

Other than Bautista in right, the Blue Jays outfield is a bit of a crap shoot. Who knows what Colby Rasmus will do in 2012. Once one of the most promising young stars in the game, Rasmus suffered a complete breakdown last season. He's a decent fielding center fielder who needs to get back on track at the plate. He will get the full shot as the starting center fielder as Rajai Davis simply can't offer anything close to enough at the plate.

The starting left fielder is Eric Thames who had a decent offensive season last year. His fielding isn't very good, however, and if he stumbles out of the gate, the Blue Jays have a back up plan with Ben Francisco, the former Phillie. It wouldn't be surprising if Francisco eventually took over the position, but he isn't that great either.

The biggest weakness for the Blue Jays for position players is behind the plate. Edwin Encarnacion should be one of the better designated hitters in the league but J.P. Arencibia has not developed as a hitting catcher despite running into a fastball once in a while and putting it over the fence. That would be fine if Arencibia was a good catcher, but, unfortunately, he is not and rated in the brutal category in many of the advanced metrics we now have for catchers. His back up is the newly acquired Jeff Mathis, who finally lost his Mike Scioscia halo after one of the worst offensive performances in recent history last season. Mathis is still fine as a defensive catcher but the Blue Jays should have kept Jose Molina. But until Travis d'Araud is ready (another year?), this is what the Blue Jays have. And it isn't pretty.

The front two guys in the Blue Jays' rotation are great in Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero. But it gets real iffy after that. Morrow is a stud who suffers some from his home ballpark in Toronto. If he can solve his home woes a little bit, he can put up a monster season. He's that good. Normally, a guy like Romero would cause some concerns about regression after posting a .242 BABIP and a 79 percent strand rate in 2011. But Romero is an extreme ground ball pitcher and that fact explains a bit of the BABIP and shouldn't lead to large concerns. Romero should have another strong season.

After those two, you have Brett Cecil, who had a disastrous 2011 campaign. Most projections see a bit of a bounce back, but still point to mediocrity and not to the fine season he had in 2010. The Blue Jays hope the projections are wrong. Cecil, among other things, needs to keep the ball in the park as he became a gopher machine last season.

But what comes after Cecil? Henderson Alvarez showed great control last season and is also a ground ball pitcher. He's never pitched a full season though and there just is no knowing how he will respond getting the ball every fifth day. The fifth starter is even more of a concern because the leading candidate right now is Dustin McGowen. McGowen is certainly a feel good story with what he's had to overcome, but in a small sample from last season, gave up homers at an alarming rate and walked far too many batters. Carlos Villanueva is another option.

The Blue Jays' bullpen appears solid with Sergio Santos on top followed by Francisco Cordero, Casey Janssen, Darren Oliver and Jason Frasor. That should be a much better bullpen than last year's fiasco out there.

Baseball Prospectus pegs the Blue Jays at 78 wins for 2012, which is three less than last year. That sounds about right. It would be a surprise if this current team could win more games than that. AA is a very good general manager and John Farrell seems to be a very good manager. But Blue Jays fans will have to wait another year or two before the pieces are in place for this team to contend again. 

Can we lose the Anaheim already?

Pet peeves usually are a selfish little indulgence we all carry to prove in some small way that we are smarter than other people. Let's face it, we are all just tiny little specks in a grand universe and we need all the help we can get to find some personal relevance. As such, pet peeves are okay. We all have to cope, right? The cool thing is pet peeves come in all shapes and sizes and you can have any interest in the world and still find a pet peeve in there somewhere. You may hate bad grammar or "texting-speak." You may hate dog owners that let their dogs poop anywhere. You may hate anything you like and that's just fine. For this little space in the universe, the pet peeve du jour is the team name of the Angels.

Hey! Pet peeves can be stupid. It's a personal right guaranteed by the Constitution. There is nothing against the Angels as a team. Oh, it got kind of boring that they won the American League West too many years in a row. And perhaps there is some chafing at the "Mike Scioscia is a genius" talk. But otherwise, there is no personal animosity to the team at all. They have a fine owner that has been good for the game of baseball and they are giving the Dodgers a run for their money as the prized franchise in southern California (apologies Padres fans). But their team name is this man's pet peeve.

It's not just that the team name is redundant. Los Angeles means, "The Angels." So basically, the team is The Angels Angels. That's kind of dumb. But anyway, the word(s) in front of the team name has changed a few times. They were the California Angels. They were the Anaheim Angels. Now, they are the Angels Angels. But then they went ahead and tacked on the "of Anaheim" bit at the end. Why did that happen? From Russ Blatt of 85% Sports:

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – Los Angeles in Spanish means, “The Angels”. Done. However, the team name story deserves more than seven words. The team was formed in 1961 as the Los Angeles Angels. In 1965, the team changed its name midseason to the California Angels in order to promote that the Angels were the only American League team in California. In 1997, Disney purchased the team with the condition that the name Anaheim be introduced into the team name and thus became the Anaheim Angels. In 2005, new owner Arte Moreno wanted to reintroduce the name Los Angeles into the team name; however the stadium lease insisted that Anaheim remain as part of the team name. That is how the name, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim was invented. As a history note, there was a minor league team named the Los Angeles Angels that played in the Pacific Coast League from 1903 to 1957. There was a team with the same name that played in the California League in 1892, 1893, 1901 and 1902. Okay, they got more than seven words.

And so it is a legal issue. Great. Just great. Can you give it a rest, Anaheim? Does your little suburb need that much publicity to justify your tax rates? Come on now.  How about if you have a town meeting and let the Angels be rid of that hated moniker. Two links in one day, Russ? Royalties?

Why is this a pet peeve? Do you really need an answer? Pet peeves are a personal choice guaranteed by the constitution, remember? Well, okay. The answer is because it is awkward. Team names should roll off the tongue like the Philadelphia Phillies does. Try saying the Angels full name in a sentence. Isn't it awkward? Plus, it's the longest team name in baseball and perhaps in all sports. When you type for an avocation, typing such a long name is a pain in the butt. But as you've probably noticed, you'll never see the full team name in this space. That's a personal rebellion and tough nuggies if you don't like it. Instead, the pet peeve is really kind of self-destructive because an even longer name is used. What is it? For this site, the team's name is, "the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in southern California in the southwestern United States of America in the northern hemisphere of planet Earth." Nobody ever said pet peeves were rational.

Just think if every team had to do this? Here is what we would end up with:

• The Texas Rangers of Arlington
• The New York Yankees of the Bronx - You can't just say, "Bronx." You have to put the, "The," in there.
• The New York Mets of Flushing on the site of a former World's Fair - Flushing is kind of a bad name for a team in the toilet, no?
• The Florida Marlins of Miami. Wait. They already fixed this one.
• The Tampa Bay Rays of St. Petersburg. 
• The Minnesota Twins of two Siamese cities.
• The Colorado Rockies of Denver.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks of Phoenix.

Think of how awful that would be. Following MLB would be like following Triple A baseball and the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees. It is a new day for the Angels. They have Albert Pujols (whom they have already ticked off with the "El Hombre" billboards) and C.J. Wilson. Now is the perfect time to start a new journey with a team name that makes sense. Make it happen, Anaheim. This personal rebellion costs this writer a lot of extra characters.

BBA Linkfest - Generally Ready for Spring

Somewhere south and southwest of here, young men are again getting ready to play baseball. Here, we are supposed to get nine inches of snow by the end of the day tomorrow. And so it is difficult to feel optimistic about anything. But have no fear, the General Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance has spring in the air from dozens of sites around the globe. Whatever your weather (and hopefully, it's better than here), grab another cup of coffee or a hot chocolate and enjoy another round of our weekly links from around the chapter.

Mike Cardano of the X-Log writes about the new rules change that we will all affectionately call, "The Sam Fuld Rule."

"He was robbed!" That's what Dan Kirby of Through the Fence Baseball says in his epic and wonderful look at MVP Award injustices through history.

Sully from Sully Baseball tells us that it is official. Albert Pujols is not a Cardinal anymore. He even linked his newest video. Bonus!

The Replacement Level Baseball Blog continued their terrific series of previews of the 2012 baseball season. This week's entry covers the American League East.

The Platoon Advantage does it all. They have analysis and retrospectives and all the good things a baseball site should have. But when they are at their rakish best, guys like TCM are bashing someone over the head with darn good prose.

If this proud linkmaster played word association with you and said, "Fastball Flakes." You would probably reply, "Bill Lee." Aha! But it's a cereal. Old Time Family Baseball has all the information.

MTD wrote this gem before heading to his annual Mardi Gras celebration. Saw on Twitter last night that he survived the week, which is good news for fans of great baseball writing. Off Base Percentage.

Love, love, love Nitkig's series on better, worse or the same. This linked post covers the Yankees. See how many you agree with after going through each player on Nitkig's Baseball Blog.

Sam Evans has a great piece over at MLB Reports on the Miami Marlins' newest closer, Heath Bell.

Your favorite Fan is going to be shameless right here. The main goal of this links post is to encourage you to go to our member sites. As such, you really should be stopping by MLB Dirt every day. And you might enjoy this piece there. hehe...shameless indeed.

Over at Major League ***Holes, a great post talks about this week being an important week for decisions.

Over at Left Field, that site's author is reliving some of his favorite posts. They are becoming our favorites too.

Matthew Mahaffey of the Pop Fly Boys has no idea how to evaluate Tony LaRussa as a manager. It's a valid point. A manager's role in a team's success is really a confusing issue.

Hot Corner Harbor makes a preemptive strike against future ignorance in Hall of Fame voting. You might be surprised at the player being pushed for consideration.

The Hall of Very Good interviews the nephew of a major league baseball player. You might find that odd, but it's actually a great read. Hop to it!

Golly, Grubby Glove sure is a great baseball site. Here's another terrific post on spring training for managers.

In what is easily the funniest post you'll read this week, Mike Rosenbaum of The Golden Sombrero writes about Brett Wallace's thighs.

The writer of The Baseball Index projects the Philadelphia Phillies' line up and is optimistic.

Thanks to For Baseball Junkies for linking to BBA member, Bill Ivie's link to Gary Carter's last known interview. Listen to this podcast for why the man was such a great person.

In German or not, Dugout 24 has a great guide for parents in choosing a bat for their children.

Diamond Hoggers gives us the ultimate tweet to let us know that Spring Training is here at last.

All the writers at Crum-Bum Beat have given themselves such cool monikers. But there is nothing cool about a new promotional toy offered by the Tampa Bay Rays. Dizzy Valance has the details. Scary!

You really need to go to Cheap.Seats.Please. and read the entire series Matt Whitener has written concerning the best 100 players in baseball history. This is, sadly, the last installment.

Mario Salvini has an inspiration post over at his site, Che Palle!. The post gives us insight on how Wilson Ramos survived his ordeal.

Baseball Unrated has a great post on fantasy baseball catcher rankings. P.S. - Matt Wieters should be higher.

Blaine Blontz of Call to the Pen fame, gives us an update on the expanded playoff system that will be rolled out in 2012.

Stevo-Sama of The Baseball Enthusiast is pumped! Find out why by clicking this link. Hint: It concerns a book he just received.

The Ball Caps Blog has three great posts this week, but we can only pick one for the links page. This one is for you if you've ever wondered how we started this tradition of notable people throwing out the first ball.

For this particular links post, you aren't going to get a direct link to any featured post from Babes Love Baseball. Instead, you'll just get a link to the site in general. Why? Because you need to go there and read all of Sooze's Haiku previews. That's why.

In Ryan Sendek's endless quest to bring you as much fantasy baseball information as you could possibly have led him to tweet Yahoo Sports and he got an answer! Analysis Around the Horn.

Russ Blatt of 85% Sports continues his fun series on how baseball teams got their names. This week's edition features the American League West. And no, he didn't include the Fan's moniker for one of the franchises as the "Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the southern part of California on the west coast of America in the northern hemisphere on the planet earth."

There you have it, folks. Another week, another great week of posts. May your week, at least, not include any snow.

Time Is Up For Pedro Alvarez

How long do you wait for a "can't miss" prospect to reach his potential? How long can a team afford to wait? Such questions will have to be answered by the Pittsburgh Pirates if Pedro Alvarez does not make progress as a player in the major leagues in 2012. Alvarez was one of the most anticipated prospects when he signed in 2008 with the Pirates as the second overall pick in that year's draft. The hype, no doubt, was heightened since Alvarez was a Scott Boras client making major league money right from the get go. After Alvarez showed a little hope in 2010, 2011 has left the promise a bit cold. Well, okay, a lot cold.

A bad hamstring didn't help Pedro Alvarez in 2011. He missed 71 games after injuring his right wheel. The original strain was in May and was re-aggravated in July. The injury could be used as a crutch to rescue some reputation after a 2011 season that saw him plummet to untold depths of poor play. But the facts are that Pedro Alvarez did manage to come to the plate 262 times in 2011 and finished with this donkey of a slash line: .191/.272/.289. That would be bad enough except his fielding was just as brutal.

How bad was the fielding? Alvarez made fourteen errors in just 66 games for a fielding percentage of .935. Otherwise, most fielding systems ranked him just below average in fielding efficiency. Even though his fielding efficiency rated better in 2011 than it did in 2010, there is something to be said for making the play once you get to the ball. Alvarez has now made 31 errors in his 160 major league games.

Despite his terrible and lost season, projection systems can't get past his minor league performances and are still somewhat bullish on the kind of season Alvarez will have in 2012. Bill James (found on Alvarez's Facebook page) has him projected at: .252/.332/.429. That's not great, but certainly better than last year. Baseball Prospectus has him at: .242/.319/.419 with a WARP of 2.0. That's highly bullish considering his WARP on that same site was -0.6 last season. ZiPS has him at: .245/.323/.447.

All of these projections assume that Pedro Alvarez will slightly increase his walk rate from its current major league 9.4 percent to over 10 percent where he was consistently in the minors. All the projections also assume that he will cut down his strikeout rate when both his seasons have seen that rate at over 30 percent. And they all predict he will hit with more power. That one is hard to dispute because his power numbers were decent in 2010. 

The Pirates have Casey McGehee behind Alvarez if the prospect falters again in 2012. But McGehee cratered himself last season with the Brewers. In order for the Pirates to continue to improve like the steps they made last year, the team needs Pedro Alvarez to become the player they thought they drafted. The feeling here is that 2012 will be the make or break year for Alvarez. Alvarez needs to show some progression as a player. The odds certainly don't look good from this office chair.

Eric Wedge Has Lost His Mind

There are not too many occasions during a baseball off season when a story makes your jaw drop to the floor. The Pujols signing by the Angels and the Pineda/Montero deal were two such occasions. Now there's a third. Eric Wedge has told the press that Ichiro Suzuki will be moved out of the lead off spot to third in the line up and Chone Figgins will lead off for the Seattle Mariners. What!?

Wedge has hinted all off season that he was toying with the idea of moving Ichiro out of the lead off spot. This site has already posted a long dissertation on the merits of such a move.  The conclusion of that piece was that Ichiro should start the season and lead off, just like he always has. The only other Mariners' player even considered for the lead off spot was Dustin Ackley. Never in the wildest dreams did it ever occur to move Chone Figgins into that spot.

If Ichiro was moved out of the first spot, then second in the order made sense. But third? That's not as far-fetched as it sounds. In his career, Suzuki is a .327 hitter with a .400 on-base percentage with men on base and with runners in scoring position, Suzuki is a .333 hitter with a .436 on-base percentage. Pitchers rarely want to pitch to the guy with men on base as he has been intentionally walked 168 times in his career in those two situations. But this isn't the same Ichiro we saw a few years ago. This Ichiro is an older one who struggled last season.

But the real kicker is Chone Figgins leading off. Figgins has a combined on-base percentage of .309 as a member of the Seattle Mariners. Sure, Figgins had a healthy on-base percentage in his years with the Angels and even walked 101 times in 2009. But Figgins has fallen off a cliff since 2009. And he's going to be 34 in 2012 so he's not going to somehow relive his prime years.

Okay, let's give Figgins the benefit of doubt. Perhaps he can return to his 70 walks per season average. If he can do that, Wedge is a genius. If Figgins is permanently stuck in the hole he dug last season, Wedge is going to look like an idiot. But hey, nothing is gained without a little risk, right?

There is an old adage that you put your best hitter in the number three hole. The Mariners' best hitter right now is not Ichiro Suzuki. Dustin Ackley is the Mariners' best hitter and Montero may prove to the the second best. Wedge's pronouncement is a shock. Perhaps he's smarter than the rest of us. Time will tell.

Phillies' Strange Love for Kyle Kendrick

Kyle Kendrick is a younger version of Tim Wakefield without the knuckleball. He can start, or he can pitch out of the bullpen. In either case, he rarely misses a bat, induces his fair share of ground balls and has a winning record to show for his five years pitching with the Philadelphia Phillies. But is he worth the $7.5 million the Phillies just decided to pay him for the next couple of years? When the numbers are crunched, it doesn't appear that he is.

The deal works out to $3.75 million a season. If we use WAR as a valuation tool, Kendrick has been worth 2.3 fWAR over his five seasons. Using Fangraphs' method of putting a dollar value on those wins over replacement, Kendrick has been worth $9.7 million over those five seasons or $1.94 million per season. Nearly half of that $9.7 million was earned in his rookie season when his performance was rated at a value of $4.2 million. His valuation for the past four seasons: $0, $1.6, $2.8 and $1.0 (in millions). Even if you average out only the last three years, Kendrick's performance has been worth $1.8 million a season. So how do the Phillies see this differently?

Using wins above replacement as a valuation tool for relief pitchers is problematic. One only needs to look at Mariano Rivera's WAR totals over his career to see what that means. Increasingly, researchers look at WPA (win probability added) as a way to value relief pitchers. So perhaps Kendrick rates highly there? No, he doesn't. Three of his five seasons (including the last two) have shown Kendrick to have a negative WPA and his score over his career is -2.79.

And that's assuming that Kendrick is a relief pitcher. He is not really a relief pitcher. Over his career, 98 of his 127 appearances have been starts. And over the past two seasons, 46 of his 67 appearances have been as a starter. With Roy Oswalt out of the picture, Kendrick and Joe Blanton will fight over the last rotation spot. Blanton will probably get the role by default if he is healthy because he makes a lot of money and has been successful when he has been healthy.

It was mentioned earlier that Kyle Kendrick does not miss many bats. Of all pitchers that have thrown 550 innings or more since 2006, only three have failed to strike out more than 300 batters: Chien-Ming Wang, Paul Byrd and Kyle Kendrick. In the interest of fairness, the oddity of that list is that all three of those pitchers have winning records over that time span including Kendrick.

"But, William," you might argue, "Kyle Kendrick had a 3.22 ERA last season." Why, yes. He did. But what we now know is that ERA is deceptive and based on a lot of factors including luck. Of all of Kyle Kendrick's peripherals, the only one that was really different in 2011 was the lower number of hits he allowed. Last season, Kendrick only gave up 8.8 hits per nine innings compared to the 9.9 he has averaged for his career. His batting average on the ball he has allowed in play (BABIP) had a lot to do with that number as it was only .261 compared to a league average of .297 and his own career average of .284.

Kendrick induces more ground balls than fly balls. His career ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.37. But that has come down over the past two seasons. His ratio in 2010 was 1.16 and in 2011 it was 1.26. But still, he throws more grounders than fly balls and with the Phillies' wonderful infield defense (except at first base), that's a good thing and certainly helped his BABIP. But even so, a .261 BABIP would lead you to believe that some good fortune was involved and can't be sustained.

Even as a ground ball pitcher, Kendrick gives up a lot of home runs. Over the last two seasons, Kendrick has allowed 40 homers in less than 300 innings of work. His career rate of home runs per nine innings is an unhealthy 1.20. You might counter that his home run rate is understandable considering his home ballpark. And indeed, nine of the fourteen homers he allowed last year were given up at home. But there is other slugging besides homers and Kendrick allowed a higher slugging percentage on the road last year than he did at home (.444, .398).

Kendrick had some other screwy splits last season. Against right handed batters, Kendrick struck out five batters for every walk he allowed (5.17). But against left-handed batters, that went down to a 1.17 K/BB ratio. He only walked six right-handed batters in 262 plate appearances. But walked 24 lefty swingers in 216 plate appearances. That seems to indicate that Kendrick isn't very confident against those that swing from the left side.

The conclusion after all this talk is that Kyle Kendrick isn't worth the money that the Phillies have decided to pay him. He's a mediocre starter if that is what his role is and if he is a reliever, he is getting paid close to what second-tier closers make. If Kendrick does not start and pitches mostly out of the bullpen, he would be the third option in the bullpen behind Papelbon and Bastardo and might even be behind Stutes. That's a lot of money for a spot starter/fourth option out of the bullpen.

Dreaming Stephen Strasburg

The 2012 MLB season is still a pregnancy with a due date six weeks out. Doctors have performed ultrasounds with ZiPS projections and Pecota cards and so us parents have some idea what's coming. But until the actual season's birth, all we can do is dream. As parents, we dream big. While the child is still in the womb, we think about college and whether our child will be artistic or athletic. But there is always fear. Will the child adjust well in this daunting world? Will he or she play well with others and succeed beyond our expectations? All those emotions are similar to dreaming about the 2012 season and Stephen Strasburg.

To carry the idea just a little further, Strasburg has already come out of the womb and taken a few steps. But he keeps going back to the incubator. There was tremendous excitement when he made his debut in 2010 and made the Pittsburgh Pirates look like a bad little league team. He gave us 68 innings that season and then his elbow popped and back to the incubator he went. After less than a year away with ligament reconstructive surgery, Strasburg again popped out of the incubator to make five starts at the end of the 2011 season. We held our collective breath.

Strasburg wasn't "quite" as dominating. His fastball averaged 96 MPH instead of close to 98 like before. He only struck out a batter per inning instead of more than that like before. But over all, it went well and he didn't break, which was the biggest fear. The season came to a close and after a long, cold winter, pitchers and catchers are reporting to Arizona and Florida and attention again focuses on the most prized pitching prospect of our generation.

Stephen Strasburg has pitched all of 92 innings in the major leagues. He's already accumulated 3.7 fWAR in those 92 innings. The numbers in such a small sample size are eye-popping. He has a 2.54 ERA with a 1.87 FIP. He has struck out 11.35 batters per nine innings while only walking 1.86 in those same nine innings. His WHIP is 0.98. His home runs per nine innings sits at 0.46. After returning from the incubator at the end of last season, he pitched 24 innings and walked only two batters and did not give up a homer. 

And yet we still don't know if he will be Jimi Hendrix or Eric Clapton. Will he shine for just a brief time or will his brilliance last the test of time? 2012 will give us a lot toward those answers. The current belief is that he will pitch 160 innings or so in 2012. You get the idea that projections systems are holding their cards tightly to their chests. Bill James didn't project him. RotoChamp projects Strasburg to 155 innings while maintaining his current numbers. Baseball Prospectus thinks he'll pitch 168 innings with a 2.53 ERA and a WHIP of 1.07 and a 5.5 WARP. We, as parents, would take that, would we not?

This baseball Fan dreams Stephen Strasburg. The 2012 baseball season will be a lot like pushing him out of the nest and seeing how well he can fly. Strasburg is a once in a lifetime kind of prospect. The anticipation for what he will do in 2012 is amazing...at least from this basement seat. Come on, baseball season! Hurry up and get here!

Tim Wakefield's Place Among Knuckleball Pitchers

Tim Wakefield retired yesterday after a long career, most of it spent with the Boston Red Sox. Wakefield, of course, was a knuckleball pitcher and member of a small club of such pitchers in the history of Major League Baseball. Knuckleball pitchers are an oddity and we baseball fans love them. Why though? Perhaps we love knuckleball pitchers because it doesn't take an elite arm to throw one. Such pitchers can pitch on little rest and seemingly, with little effort. Knuckleball pitchers can pitch well into their forties. And, of course, we have a Bob Uecker's wonderful description of how to catch one ("Wait until it stops rolling and pick it up").

Whenever a player has played as long as Wakefield has, we usually try to put such a career into perspective. And, no, Tim Wakefield is never going to be a candidate for the Hall of Fame. So we can't write that kind of post. After all, Wakefield's closest comps on baseball.reference.com are Chuck Finley and Livan Hernandez. Since knuckleball pitchers are a rarity, we can put Wakefield's career in perspective compared to other knuckleball pitchers over the history of baseball. That's what this post will do.

The hardest thing to do to compile such a list is first determining who the knuckleball pitchers were through history. Fortunately, such a list exists and was culled as the starting point of this little research project. Using this list of names and looking up all the careers of the players on the list, and going by accumulated rWAR, Tim Wakefield is the ninth best knuckleball pitcher ever. Here is the list:

1. Phil Niekro - 96.8 rWAR
2. Ted Lyons - 58.8 - 19.2 of his rWAR was accumulated before he started throwing the pitch in 1929.
3. Eddie Cicotte - 49.7 - banned from baseball after the 1920 season for his part in the Black Sox scandal  of 1919.
4. Dutch Leonard - 45.6
5. Wilbur Wood - 45
6. Hoyt Wilhelm - 41.3 - Only a starter one season. The rest was in relief.
7. Tom Candiotti - 41
8. Charlie Hough - 37.5 - Did not become a starting pitcher until his thirteenth big league season.
9. Tim Wakefield - 31.6
10. Joe Niekro - 30.2 - Also compiled some WAR before converting to the knuckleball full time.
11. Bob Purkey - 26.5
12. Hal Brown - 16.6
13. Johnny Niggeling - 15.6

While we're at it, we might as well list the best pitching years ever by a knuckleball pitcher. Wakefield won't make this list. His best season was 1995 when he accumulated 4.6 rWAR.

1. Wilbur Wood (1971) - 10.7 rWAR
2. Ed Cicotte (1917) - 10.0
3. Phil Niekro (1978) - 9.1
4. Hoyt Wilhelm (1959) - 7.4 - His only year as a full time starter. And what a year!
5. Bob Purkey (1962) - 7.2 - Amazing year for the Pirates that season.
6. Joe Niekro (1982) - 7.1

Tim Wakefield had a productive career and being ninth all time among his pitching peers is pretty darned good. He was a fan favorite in Boston and his pitching of the last couple of seasons won't be missed, but he will be.

Spreadsheet and notes. Click on the the image to make it larger.

Coming to Terms With Gary Carter

Gary Carter's death this week at the age of 57 is a bit of a stomach kicker. For one, the guy was only two years older than I am. Plus, it came during the same week when I lost a man very dear to me who has been a part of my life for over thirty years. So it's already been a week of loss and sadness. There is a lot of such sadness in life and our only recourse is to balance that with the blessings and the good times. Since the man I lost this week was 95 years old, there is much more sadness for me than for him as he had a rich life and died peacefully. There are so many good memories that can be recalled to soften the tears. But what of Gary Carter? Unlike the man in my life that I lost, I spent most of my adult life with a fetish of dislike for Gary Carter. But I saw the beginning, middle and end of his career and athletes aren't supposed to die. Not that young anyway.

Much of this is irrational. And I realize that. Mourning the passing of a ballplayer is over-hyped in a world where people die by the millions every week. Because the player was famous and a Hall of Fame player at that, his passing is given much more attention than it deserves. There is little attention except for perhaps a back page story for a child that has lost a father or a mother who has lost a son in any small town in America. But because Gary Carter was a Hall of Fame catcher, his death is given much more coverage. That's just the way it is. And my dislike for the man was every bit as irrational.

When did that dislike start and why was it so? Don't ask those silly questions of a baseball fan. Is there ever any good reason? I dislike Kevin Youkilis. Always have. Is Youkilis a bad guy? Probably not. But something inside me is turned off by the guy. Maybe it's his stupid batting stance or the way he takes a personal affront to every inside pitch or his temper when he strikes out. But other players have done that, so what gives? I don't know. Something about Gary Carter pushed all the wrong buttons inside me.

Carter was known as an intense player. Perhaps that is the tie of his dislike to that of Youkilis, who is also intense. We love intense players when they are on our team. But when they are on the other team, we like them a lot less. Carter was a catcher. Catchers are supposed to be low-profile guys. Grunts. The tools of ignorance guys. But Carter was flamboyant and even as a member of the Expos, became famous for a team that did not get a lot of national press. Carter went to seven All Star Games as a member of the Expos, including a run of six straight from 1979 to 1983. Plus, he played in the post season in 1981. It was during those contests when the dislike built.

But the loathing came to a full head in 1986 when Carter was a member of the World Champion New York Mets. Gary Carter was center stage in that post season and certainly in that improbable tenth inning of the most famous Game Six in World Series history (perhaps eclipsed this year by the Cardinals). Gary Carter helped break my heart that season.

Though I've spent a lifetime as a fan of the Red Sox's rivals, that 1986 Red Sox team had captured my heart. It was the season I developed a major man-crush on Roger Clemens. Dwight Evans will always remain one of my favorite all time players. Wade Boggs was the most amazing hit machine I have ever seen in my baseball life. Tom Seaver was having his last hurrah with that team. Bruce Hurst was an underrated left-handed starter. Bill Buckner and Marty Barrett were blue collar heroes. Oil Can Boyd was comic relief.

That team just captured my imagination. As I have mentioned here many times, I was living in southern Maine at the time (just over the NH border) and we didn't have cable television. There was no MLB.tv. Channel 38 and the Red Sox were the only games I could watch with my antenna on the roof. So I watched nearly every game of that 1986 season. I saw every one of Clemens' brilliant starts. I saw every Wade Boggs hit. I exalted over every perfectly positioned throw from Evans in right field. It was a magical season.

And that magical season led to the 1986 World Series. I kind of liked the Mets with their band of bad boys. But, of course, I didn't like Gary Carter. And then came Game Six. The game was in the bag. This Red Sox team that I had grown to love was going to win it all! It was the bottom of the tenth with just three outs and it would be done. You can "Bill Buckner" me all you want. But I remember vividly watching that last inning and screaming at the television. It was to be one of the worst managing moments in history. Boston manager, John McNamara, lost that World Series. Buckner should have been replaced defensively. Calvin Schiraldi had already yielded the lead in the bottom of the ninth and shouldn't have started the tenth. He had already pitched two tough innings. Why was he still out there?

But then Schiraldi got the first two Mets to fly out to start the tenth. One more out! One more out! It never came. I remember standing behind the couch with the couch as a barrier between me and the television. It was if I needed the furniture to keep me from devouring the television. I was close to euphoric. The Mets were down to their last out. But then Gary Carter came up. Carter with his permed hair and his All-American boyish looks hit a single. No problem, McNamara will take Schiraldi out and get this over with. Kevin Mitchell came up to pinch hit. It was the perfect time to make the switch. Except McNamara stood there. Mitchell got a hit. Still, McNamara stood there. Then Ray Knight got a hit that scored Carter. Knight was another player I hated for much the same reasons as Carter. Of course Carter's helmet came off when he slid into home. Of course, he crowed in his All-American goodness. Of course his rah-rah style of play was evident. I fumed. That couch saved lives that day.

Finally, McNamara removed Schiraldi. Bout time, stupid. But it was too late. The rest was history. I was crushed and dancing on the field, in the middle of the pile of happy Mets was Gary Carter. Loathing became hatred. Hatred burned deeply. One of my most disliked players had helped break my heart.

Flash forward to the present. That same Gary Carter was diagnosed with cancer, that dreaded disease that strikes fear in all of us. Carter was upbeat and leaned on his faith. He faced his illness with class and courage. How can you hate such a man? Footage was shown just recently of him at an event and ravaged by illness, he still had a big smile on his face. Where does such courage and faith come from? Years of loathing and animosity melted away to admiration in less than the time it took to write this post. I came to love that Gary Carter.

How strange life is. Carter's death will forever be linked to the other loss in my life this week. The two will be paired. One man I lost will be a love grown over thirty years and an influence on my life that will never end. The other's death was a man I had disliked as long as I had loved the other man. But both are mourned today. The inherent goodness of both men is the bottom line and I have no doubt that both will have eternal rewards beyond this life. Both men led by example. One just took longer to get his message across than the other. Rest in peace gentlemen. Rest in peace.

And the Jermaine Dye Award Goes To...

Trucking Day has come and gone for baseball teams and pitchers and catchers started reporting for duty and will continue to increase in the coming days. Spring Training engines are revving up in Florida and Arizona as teams try to ready themselves for the upcoming 2012 baseball season. How exciting is that!? But it's not so exciting for some fairly well known free agents that have yet to find jobs for the upcoming season. To say these players might be getting a bit antsy is an understatement. Who will be this year's Jermaine Dye?

Why Jermaine Dye? Dye was a two-time All Star who also won a Silver Slugger Award and twice made the top 20 in MVP Voting. Dye made over $74 million during his career. But after 2009, Dye became a free agent and his phone never rang. Well, it might have a few times, but there was never a connection on what Dye was willing to make and what a team was willing to offer. His career was over just like that one year after a fifteenth place finish in MVP voting in 2008.

Dye was a casualty of baseball's new valuation analysis. Armed with all kinds of new data, teams know what players are worth and rarely allow themselves to pay above that valuation. No team saw Dye as a good option. Dye was used to making $11 million a year and never heard the new reality coming until it whacked him in the forehead.

So at least in this mind, Dye is a symbol of sorts--enough so that a new award is named after him: The Jermaine Dye Award, given to a player each year that ran headlong into the slammed door of the evaluation machine. Who are this year's candidates? Well, there is Roy Oswalt. Oswalt is one of the better pitchers of his generation. But thus far, Oswalt has limited the scope of teams he will deal with and unfortunately, those limited amount of teams haven't bit the bullet on Oswalt's price tag. But Oswalt will likely get a deal. He is still too good a pitcher in a market that covets such things. The only question is how much money he'll get.

So who else is there? Pat Burrell retired, so we can't count him. How about Johnny Damon? Hmm...that's an interesting call. His status might depend on if the Yankees can trade A.J. Burnett. But there are whispers that his desire to reach 3,000 hits have compromised his value at the plate as his quest makes him less patient. Damon is a strong contender. It's been rumored that he wants $5 million and most teams won't want to pay him that kind of money.

How about J.D. Drew? Reports are that Drew is going to retire. But no official word has come forth. In fact, no words have been written about Drew at all, which is kind of fitting as he's always been the silent type. Until Drew's announcement comes, he's a contender.

Vladimir Guerrero might be the winner of the award. Vlad is one of the best players of his generation. But his bad wheels caught up to his free-swinging ways in 2011 and his value has gone way down. It's hard to imagine a player of his magnitude settling for a cheap little deal somewhere.

Derrek Lee? Another strong candidate. Lee had a strong finish with the Pirates but that was after a sluggish stint with the Orioles. Lee has made over $90 million in his career including $7 million last year. Count on your fingers the number of teams that need a first baseman. Not many, right? He's worth a flyer as a DH, but not for any kind of significant money. Would Lee accept that? 

Ivan Rodriguez might not get an offer, which is sad. It's hard to think of baseball without him. But he's been fading for so long that he doesn't quite fit our criteria here. The same can be said for Edgar Renteria. The rest of the unsigned free agents are fringy at best unless you want to include Jason Kendall. Uh. No. Skip that. 

It appears that our candidates are Guerrero, Damon, Lee and Oswalt. Of the four, Vlad seems to be the most vulnerable. And that's a shame. He was amazing in his prime.