Baseball players rarely get fired

Jack Welch, the famous CEO of General Electric from 1981 to 2001 was famous for his ten percent rule. He believed that every year, the bottom ten percent of performing employees should be fired. We adopted some of his philosophies at the software company I worked for from 1993 to 2008. I ran Customer Service and I kept a spreadsheet on everything related to performance such as call times, customer reviews, and a dozen of other skill sets. Every year, the bottom performers would be let go no matter how long they had been with us. It sounds brutal but those numbers were posted daily and everyone knew what was expected. Such a rule does not exist in baseball. Many of the bottom ten percent of players get to keep playing.

I did a search on both Baseball-reference.com and on Fangraphs.com to identify who the lowest valued players were in the past three seasons. I searched for those batters who had played at least 250 games over the past three seasons with a WAR of zero or less. In Baseball-reference.com, there were twenty-five such players. Of those twenty-five, only four did not have a job this spring.

I did the same thing and looked for pitchers with at least 210 innings pitched over the past three seasons. There were strangely twenty-five of those too. Of those twenty-five, only six did not have a job this spring, at least in a major league camp.

Why is the mediocrity built into the Major League system? Juan Rivera is in the Yankees camp this spring on a minor league deal. But you know he's going to head north with the team, right? He's on our list. Despite being on that list, he's made $19 million dollars over those three seasons. The Yankees also brought Ben Francisco into camp because their injuries keep mounting. He is on my list.

I have never understood how these players continue to get jobs year after year. One of these conversations always leads to the "good clubhouse guys." Craig Calcaterra of NBC's HardBallTalk recently had a post where he talked to Brandon McCarthy, one of the most stat-savvy players in baseball, and McCarthy reiterated the "good clubhouse guy" mythology. Calcaterra, to his credit, was not really buying it.

Each team has a large amount of players playing in the Triple-A and Double-A level. It would seem really difficult for me to believe that a good portion of these could be as incompetent as these bottom twenty-five players in baseball are. And they could be that incompetent for a lot less money. Is there more to this than meets the eye?

Would it be jaded for me to wonder if baseball would rather keep these awful players around instead of turning them over because that would mean more players qualifying for an MLB pension? On the face of it, those financial concerns wouldn't seem to cost MLB that much money. Can it really be more cost effective to play a lousy player a million dollars instead of a replacement player half that much to save money on pensions? I don't know the answer. But purging the sport of the worst ten percent of the players on a regular basis seems so logical that it has to be another logical reason why it doesn't happen.

The aforementioned Yankees have several outfielders in their minor league system that could very easily replicate what Juan Rivera and Ben Francisco bring to the table. So why don't they go that way? They won't. You just know they won't. You just know the Red Sox will go with Jonny Gomes and Mike Carp over Jackie Bradley, Jr.

For me, back in my software company days, a guy that made other employees feel good and smile a lot just did not make a difference if the customers suffered as a result. In the end, there were too many competitors which would be glad to take our customers if we did not take care of ours. It was an easy decision to make. It was tough. But it was necessary. But for some reason, baseball is different. Old catchers last forever despite production when minor league catchers could do just as well and for a lot less money.

Whether this baseball truism comes from something innocent like a manager's comfort level or something more sinister like the pension angle, the bottom line here is that baseball perpetuates a cycle where the bottom ten percent of performers continue to work in their profession. The government might be the only other employer that does that.

Allen Craig and his projections

I have been writing a series of posts that seem to take issues with how projection systems predict certain players over the course of the 2013 season. It may seem like I have an issue with projection systems. The fact is that I do not. When you put all of their projections together, the margin for error is quite small. All of them pretty much work the same way. You plug in the numbers that have been compiled to date and run the algorithms a few thousand times and see what spits out. Of course, I have no idea what I'm talking about, but that is my weak and general understanding of them. But there are cases where the projections do not seem to make sense. Either they are too pessimistic or too optimistic. One of those for me is Allen Craig of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Let me cover my bases here a bit and admit that I am a bit obsessed with Allen Craig. And it is quite complicated an obsession. Part of it is a deep-rooted dislike for Albert Pujols and the deep-seated hope that Craig can replace Pujols' value to the Cardinals. I admit that none of this is particularly sane. But just because I write about baseball an insane amount of time does not mean that I am an impartial metronome of players. There will always be this Fan screaming for a place like the human emotion in Spock or something. These obsessions do not always work out well. I had obsessions with Reid Brignac and Micah Owings. Those didn't exactly pan out. Though, Owings did hit a grand slam today.

But I think this one with Craig has a chance. The guy now has 857 plate appearances under his belt and has a cool triple slash line of .300/.348/.515. He has compiled 5.6 fWAR in about a year and a half of playing and has a wOBA of .370 and a wRC+ of 135. That's pretty impressive. So I am a bit flummoxed that his projections predict his numbers will go down instead of up. How could that be?

In case you want to see what I am talking about, Fangraphs.com lists the projection systems on each player's page. I'd throw in the BaseballProspectus.com projection (PECOTA) too but I need to renew my subscription and haven't yet.

First, the projection systems have him only playing anywhere from 117 to 140 games. This apparently takes into account the injury Craig suffered before the season last year. But that was last year and he is playing first base, one of the safer places on the diamond. I think he'll play 155 games. But the pessimism goes on from there. What follows are Craig's 2012 numbers followed by the average projection number for that stat (add them all together and divide). Here we go:

• Batting Average: .307 / .291
• On-base Percentage: .354 / .348
• Slugging Percentage:  .522 / .501
• wOBA:  .374 / .364
• ISO:  .215 / .210
• fWAR: 3.1 / 2.8

Are you getting the picture here? And remember, those average projections are averages and there are some that are significantly lower. ZiPS is the most pessimistic. Three of the five projections predict his strikeout rate will rise despite the fact that his swing and miss rate has gone down three years running. Two of the five predict his homer total will be less and two of the five predict his doubles total will be less. Allen Craig has a career BABIP of .329. None of the projection systems think it will be that high in 2013. 

Okay, perhaps you are saying, "Okay, smartypants, what are your predictions for Allen Craig since YOU know so much?" Well, first off, I don't know diddly. But my prediction for Allen Craig (barring injury) would be: .315/.364/.540 with 30 homers, 28 doubles, a wOBA of .384 and an fWAR of 5.0. Those are as dumbed-down a set of predictions you are going to find anywhere. There are no spreadsheets or computer readouts. But those are my numbers. And just remember, I can beat the computer at Hearts 81% of the time.

Norichika Aoki - regression candidate?

The Milwaukee Brewers caught a nice surprise in 2012 when Norichika Aoki turned in a 2.9 fWAR season and ended up compiling 588 plate appearances in 151 games. There are a lot of nice elements in his numbers as we shall see. With only one year in the Major Leagues (in this country), can he repeat those numbers? Only ZiPS doesn't think so. All the other projection systems think he will improve further. Let's take a closer look and see which system is going to be correct..

First of all, ZiPS does not believe in Aoki's 2012 power numbers. For a fairly small guy, Aoki racked up 37 doubles, four triples and ten homers. His .433 slugging percentage and .144 ISO had to be a surprise. ZiPS isn't the only one who thinks his power numbers will slip. But ZiPS is the most aggressive in his projected fall. The only natural place to look is to see what Aoki did in Japan.

And the numbers in Japan show us that what he did in 2012 with power numbers for Milwaukee look sustainable. His number of doubles was right in line with his production in Japan and if anything, his ten homers were somewhat less than his normal Japan production. My conclusion then is that his ISO should remain in the same ballpark as what he did in 2012 with a possible chance of it being slightly higher.

But power is only a part of the OPS and wOBA categories. Aoki would need to maintain his batting average and on-base percentage. The one thing that helps Aoki is that he nearly always makes contact. He only swung and missed on 4.6% of the pitches he saw in 2012. That is a very low number. And his plate discipline seems stable as he swung at only 27% of pitches out of the strike zone. So he'll make contact and he should walk fifty or so times this season.

The type of contact he makes concerns me a bit. Aoki hits a lot of ground balls. In fact he hit exactly twice as many ground balls as he hit fly balls. Only fifteen players in the majors had a higher ground ball to fly ball ratio than Aoki did. And of those fifteen, none had a lower line drive percentage than Aoki. And yet, Aoki's batting average on ground balls (and BABIP, of course) was .290.

I'm not saying it is impossible to bat .290 on ground balls. Jeter and Suzuki have been making a living doing that for years. But it is not the norm. As I have stated here before, the league average for ground balls is .238. That is the norm. Jeter and Suzuki have beat the norm for years and years. Is Aoki one of those guys too? Time will tell.

I'm not quite sure what to make of Aoki in the outfield. The scouting reports are that Aoki has a weak arm. And yet, he had seven assists from right field last season. Right field seemed to be his best position in 2012 and the only one that garnered him positive numbers of the three outfield positions he played. But a weak armed right-fielder doesn't make sense unless he keeps throwing guys out, right?  He is best in a corner position and is really not a center fielder. But his batting game is more like a center fielder or a second baseman type. So he really doesn't fit.

Norichika Aoki will be a big part of whether the Brewers compete in 2013 or not. If he has the kind of year he did in 2012 with his 30 steals in 38 attempts and his ability to get on base at a .350 or higher clip, he will aid that team's cause greatly. But if he cannot sustain his BABIP on ground balls, then he could fall down to the .260 and .270 range in batting average and that will drag off most of what he brought to the table last season. After weighing it all together, my conclusion is that Aoki is a regression candidate and is 31 years old. We'll have to see how it plays out for the Brewers.

Adrian Gonzalez's optimistic projections

Adrian Gonzalez has changed as a hitter the last two seasons and that change has not been reflected in his projections from six different sites culled for this post. And unless he reverts back to where he was four years ago, his projections are kind of messed up. Some might say that his time in Boston might have screwed him up a bit and thrown him off his game. But I maintain that some of the signs were there in his last season in San Diego.

Let's start with his walk rate. From 2008 until 2011, 95 of his 2,783 plate appearances were intentional walks. That is a 3.5 percent walk rate all by itself. And partly because of the intentional walks and other walks that were not intentional but were just as intentional (if you know what I mean), his walk rate was inflated. If you look at his entire career, subtract his intentional walks from his walk total and he has walked 8.2% of the time.

And yet his walk rate projected by the projection systems for 2013 is anywhere from a low of 8.9% to a high of 10.6%. This would seem to indicate that the projections expect him to be intentionally walked at least in double digit numbers.

But will that be the case? He was only intentionally walked five times in all of 2012. And he was only walked once intentionally in his 157 plate appearances for the Dodgers. As a result, his walk rate fell to a career low, 6.1%.

And there is more to this equation. Starting in 2010 in his last year with the Padres, Adrian Gonzalez's plate discipline has gotten lost a bit. In 2009, Gonzalez swung at 23.1% of the pitches he saw out of the strike zone and his total swing rate was 44.7%. In 2010, those figures rose to 31.8% (O-swing) and 48.8%. In 2011, they went up again to 35.5% and 49.2%. The progression continued into 2012 when those numbers went up again to 37.3% and 51.4%.  In other words, his patience at the plate has deteriorated to the point where his O-swing rate was the highest of his career and his total swing rate was the highest its been since 2005.

Obviously, Gonzalez can reverse those numbers and go back to being patient at the plate again. But he is trending against that and a four year slide doesn't seem that easy to break.

The other thing that looks optimistic to me is his ISO projections. After five years in a row of having an ISO well over .200, it fell to .164 last season. All of the projections expect that number to bounce back. None of them expect it to bounce back to where it was, but the range is from a low of .189 to a high of .211.

There are two things to look at when looking at ISO. First is the fly ball percentage and the second is the homer to fly ball percentage. Gonzalez has averaged a fly ball percentage of 37.4% for his career. But has been lower than that for the last two seasons.

His homer per fly ball percentage peaked in 2008 and 2009 with both seasons over 20%. The last three seasons have been 16.4%, 16.4% and then 9.6% last season. So he is hitting less fly balls and less of them are going over the fence. Unless that trend stops and reverses itself, how can his ISO go up?

Obviously, I could be all wet here. Adrian Gonzalez could regain his patience at the plate and hit more fly balls and have more of those fly balls go over the fence. But those factors have been trending in the reverse direction since his last season in San Diego. I'm not saying that Adrian Gonzalez is not still a dangerous hitter. He is. But the trend is that he is not as dangerous as he once was and his projections are not yet reflecting the direction he has been going.

Morrow and Johnson quite the one-two punch

Josh Johnson faced a split squad Braves team in Florida yesterday. But he still had to face the two Upton brothers and Heyward. The results were about as impressive as you could ask for. He pitched three and two-thirds innings and yielded no hits and no walks and struck out five. He has yet to walk a batter this spring and his strikeout to walk ratio is eight to zero. Yes, it is spring and it doesn't count. But, dang, that is impressive. Brandon Morrow has a five to one strikeout to walk ratio this spring. If these two stay healthy, the Toronto Blue Jays could have one of the best one-two punches in baseball.

The knock on Josh Johnson for all these years is that he could not stay healthy. And indeed, four of his eight seasons have included him missing significant time. But, boy, when he has been healthy, he has been impressive. Well...that is until 2012. Suddenly, he looked quite ordinary despite staying healthy all of 2012. But his season was not quite as bad as the 8-14 record and the 3.81 ERA indicated. His FIP was lower at 3.40 and his WHIP was fairly respectable at 1.280.

Johnson's struggles could have been trying to rebound from only making nine appearances from the year before. Now removed a year from his injury troubles of 2011, Johnson could be poised to start reeling off the kind of numbers that made everyone drool for a few seasons.

I have been a champion of Brandon Morrow for years now. And he has also had some injury issues. He missed twelve more starts in 2012. But in the 21 starts he did make, he started to show that he was really putting it together. I've always thought his stuff was better than his results. He throws six different pitches and five of them are above average. His fastball hums along with an average over 93 MPH.

And like I said, the results started to show last year. His WHIP was 1.115, an excellent number. He only gave up 7.1 hits per nine innings. His ERA was probably a little deceiving at 2.96 as his FIP was seventy-five points higher due mostly to a very low BABIP and a bit of a dip in his strikeout rate.

But I believe in this guy and I always have. So, as I am looking at the pair of Morrow and Johnson, I see a dynamic duo waiting to happen. As always, the health of the pair will be a key. But if both stay healthy? Look out.

And if that happens with R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle behind them, this Blue Jays team suddenly looks quite dangerous. The Blue Jays have to forget the money they have invested in Rickey Romero and scrap him from the rotation. Romero's spring numbers look as bad as his numbers from last season. He just has nothing in his bag of tricks that can get people out right now. J.A. Happ can probably hold the fifth position down better than Romero at this point. It wouldn't take much.

But again, how can Toronto fans not be excited? If Dickey is anywhere close to where he was last year and Morrow and Johnson can blow through lineups, this team is silly in how good it can be. Most people look at the Marlins last year and point to how a good team on paper can fall flat in the season. But the same can be said the other way around. The Nationals were good on paper and were even more terrific in the season. Sometimes the talent pans out to what it looks like it should.

The Blue Jays look like that kind of team. And it all starts with Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson. The two are ridiculously talented. They just need to put it together for one full season of healthy pitching. Both are good enough to win a Cy Young Award. If one of them does, remember that I'll be saying, "Told you so."

Concerns about David Ortiz

David Ortiz has appeared on these "pages" more than just about any other player. For four straight years there was the ongoing debate about whether the Red Sox should extend him or not. At the beginning of that run, the answer was always no because of his size and his age. And sure enough, and with wisdom, the Red Sox kept bringing him back with only one year contracts. This off season, I refrained from my usual speculation, probably because the Red Sox made their decision early and for the first time, extended him two seasons instead of one. This break from their status quo on Ortiz might come back to haunt them.

David Ortiz is not playing this spring. In fact, he is just gingerly running around the bases. The Achilles tendon he hurt at the end of 2011 is still giving him problems. There are new reports now that he will not be ready for opening day. There are other reports that he is currently 260 pounds. All of which add up to a great big deal of concern that the greatest designated hitter of his era could be a loud non-factor this season.

Ortiz was never really well last season. After he hit the ball, watching him run the bases was downright painful. Every time I saw him, I half expected him to collapse in a heap. While he never did, he only played ninety games and as it became clear the Red Sox were stuck in the mud for the 2012 season, Ortiz shut it down completely.

The expectation was that he would come back this season and be healthier. But he is not. He seems to be in the same place as he was last year when the season ended. He is not as young as Ryan Howard, who has also returned from a similar injury. Howard may never be the same again either, but Howard has done a good job at taking care of himself and keeping as much pressure off his legs as possible. Ortiz looks like a caricature of Babe Ruth except he doesn't have the spindly legs.

Fortunately for the Red Sox, they picked up Mike Napoli in the off season. Napoli can replace some of Ortiz's production if Ortiz was to miss an extended period of time. But using Napoli at the DH position weakens the Red Sox' offense because it means Daniel Nava or Mike Carp will have to play first base. The Red Sox are infinitely scarier with both Ortiz in the lineup with Napoli and a lot less scary with one of them out.

Ortiz's leg problems did not affect his ability to hit last year, which is surprising. A hitter gets much of his torque from the lower body. But when Ortiz was able to hit, he creamed the ball. His 1.026 OPS in his 383 plate appearances was remarkable, especially in this day and age of pitching and computer-fed fielding positioning. His hitting hearkened back to his salad days of 2006 and 2007.

There is not a concern that Ortiz can still hit. Whatever ailed his hitting in 2009 has been long gone and his numbers have been superb from 2010 onward. But he has to be able to run after he hits the ball. If it was just a bum knee, then that is one thing. But an Achilles tendon is debilitating when injured and Ortiz looks debilitated. How did he pass a physical?

I should have written about Ortiz after the season last season. I should have had a fifth year of, "should the Sox sign him," but I missed the boat. After a 90 game season last year, I would have either said no or another one year contract. The Red Sox felt they had to make a statement after such a horrid season and Ortiz's two year extension was such a statement. It may turn out to be one which should never have been uttered.

Dustin, Justin and Jesús - ready to explode?

What happens when you trade a big chip for a can't miss prospect, a can't miss prospect for another can't miss prospect, and draft a guy first round and put all these hot prospects all in one lineup? Well, if you are the Seattle Mariners and their fans, you watched all three collectively flop in 2012. We, of course, are talking about Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesús Montero.  None of the three topped the .300 mark in on-base percentage. And Smoak and Montéro finished below ground in the fWAR department. Can the trio reverse their fortunes in 2013?

Spring Training is such an illusion. The games don't count. Pitchers of every stripe are thrown out there to either get experience or just work on some pitches. Plus, a large number of teams, including the Mariners, now train in Arizona where the ball just sails through the hot, dry air making the offensive numbers dubious at best.

All those disclaimers aside, it is very encouraging to see what Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesús Montéro are doing this spring. Smoak and Montéro are both batting .500 with half of their hits being of the extra base variety. Ackley is batting .400. Certainly, spring training is no predictor about regular season success. But success sometimes builds on itself and there is something to the group dynamic where success is contagious. Maybe we have something here.

Consider also that Safeco Field is going to have new dimensions this year that could favor Smoak and Montero specifically and Ackley occasionally. Montéro hit .295 on the road last season and .227. Smoak hit 197 at home in 2012 and .235 on the road. Ackley had ten homers on the road and only two at home. Safeco definitely got into these players' heads. The differences in the dimensions are not drastically different. But they will be different enough to change the mindset.

Another thing to look at is BABIP. Dustin Ackley had a BABIP of .265 in 2012. Justin Smoak's BABIP was an insanely low .242. Even Montéro's .292 was a bit on the low side. Perhaps some of that is bad contact. But perhaps some of that is bad luck and bad approaches too. If all three just have league average BABIPs, there is will be vast improvement.

Dustin Ackley is a former first round draft pick. In his minor league career, he showed a far higher walk percentage and lower strikeout percentage than last year's numbers. He has good plate discipline and only swung at 24% of pitches outside the strike zone last season. His walk totals will improve and the strikeouts will come down. Knowing where he was drafted, Ackley will have every chance to turn things around.

Montéro was the big chip in the trade with the Yankees that cost them one of their best young arms. He will get every opportunity to turn things around too. With John Jaso gone, Montéro is being depended on to catch, which is still quite the dicey proposition. But the gut here says that he is going to explode offensively a year removed from the shock of switching coastlines and leaving the only organization he had known.

Justin Smoak is probably on his last "Get Out of Jail Free" card and will need to either start showing what he can do or fade away into the sunset. He is only 25 and can still turn it around. If this spring is any indication, he looks like he's figured some things out.

Time will tell on these three. But, without being overly analytic here, all three could jell this season and make this a much more fun season for the long-suffering Mariner fans.

The Flagrant Fan site turns ten years old

Heh. I can't even get an anniversary right. For weeks now, I have been planning a big birthday celebration as this site hits the ten year old mark. Going back to my very first posts here, I could have sworn the date was March 6, 2003. But I actually wrote my first post on March 5, 2003. So perhaps if I write this in the evening, both bases will be covered. Anyway, the main point here is that I've been plugging away here for a decade now.

When this site started, it took me months just to figure out how to put headings on the posts. So the first hundred or so went without headings. How's that for flying solo while sitting backwards in the pilot seat?

I also remember that I was pretty much doing things for myself with the hope that a few lost souls might find their way here. For years, a good month was a hundred page hits. But that was okay. A few cool people became early readers. Navin Vaswani was an early follower. That was cool.

That first year, I wrote something like 241 posts from March to December. Things got a bit sketchy for a few years after that. I don't remember why I put it up for a while. I wish I hadn't. But it is what it is. Perhaps it was because I had a wonderful job and was making big money. Who knows. But in 2008, that big job went away and I found myself unemployed for four years. My writing sort of became an obsession.

I wrote 639 posts in 2009, 761 in 2010 and 695 in 2011. I slacked off in 2012 to 499. And if you are at least a little familiar with the site, I do not write little ditties (about Jack and Diane). While I am not a Joe Posnanski, I tend to write longer posts. So that is a lot of writing.

I am employed again and writing has become a challenge. But when I write it, they will come. Where 100 page hits in a month was a good month, the site often reaches 100 hits in an hour. That is very gratifying. The commitment has somewhat paid off as I also write now for It's About the Money, Stupid, MLB Dirt and for the e-magazine, Big Leagues Magazine.

The commitment also led me to the Baseball Bloggers Association. I am honored and grateful to be the current president of the General Chapter of that organization. I am also up to 935 followers on Twitter. How the heck did that happen?

All this is because of two things. First, baseball has been (along with the Beatles), one of the underpinning story lines of my life. Through the good times and the bad times, there has always been baseball. Secondly, God blessed me with the ability to write and I enjoy it. Perhaps using that God-given gift to write about something trivial like baseball is a frittering away of that gift. It might seem that way.

But writing transcends baseball when done so regularly. Even baseball writers touch on common life themes and can make a difference in people's lives. I am a high road kind of guy. I believe in forgiveness and in treating people well. Reaching a wide audience regularly with those beliefs girding the writing perhaps rubs off here and there. If so, great. If not, as long as you enjoy the baseball stuff, it's all good.

So much has changed in ten years! Consider that when this blog was born:

• Derek Jeter had accumulated 1,200 hits.
• Jim Thome had 334 homers.
• Roy Halladay had a record of 37-24 in his big league career.
• Barry Bonds had accumulated 613 homers.
• C.C. Sabathia had not yet made an All Star team and had only accumulated 5.7 rWAR.
• The Tampa team was still the Devil Rays and they were three months away from picking Delmon Young with the first pick of the 2003 draft. 
• It has just been nine months before that the Pirates thought that Bryan Bullington was a better pick than Zack Greinke and drafted Bullington first in the 2002 draft.
• The Red Sox had yet to win a World Series since 1918.
• Albert Pujols had 71 homers for his career and no MVP Awards.
• Mariano Rivera had 243 saves.
• Jamie Moyer was still a Seattle Mariner and was only 39 years old. He would go on to win 105 more games!
• Ichiro Suzuki only had 450 hits.
• Alfonso Soriano had yet to play for any team but the Yankees and the word, "albatross," was not attached to his name.
• Jake Peavy had just completed his rookie season for the Padres and had been terrible.
• Alex Rodriguez was still a shortstop.
• Chipper Jones was a left fielder
• Carlos Beltran was still a Kansas City Royal.
• The Twins still played at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome and were division champs. A.J. Pierzynski was still their catcher.
• Eddie Murray, Gary Carter, Paul Molitor, Wade Boggs, Dennis Eckersley and Ryne Sandberg were not yet members of the Hall of Fame.

It was a different world then. Twitter would not be invented for three more years (in March of 2006), and Facebook was a year away from its initial launch. Steroids were just starting to be a story. And the iPhone was four years away.

Here are some of my favorite posts over the years:

• Steve Hamilton's Folly Floater
• The day Willie Mays played shortstop
• Rick Ankiel can throw a little bit
• The seven worst starting pitchers ever
• The sixteen best seasons ever by a catcher

It's been a lot of fun. And the most rewarding part has been you, the readers. Thank you for reading all these years. And just for you, to help celebrate this event, here is a little contest. Name the four players who have played all nine positions in the same game. The hint is that you can find the answer by searching this blog because I have written about it. DO NOT PUT THE ANSWER IN THE COMMENTS. If you do, that ruins the contest and makes it null and void. Instead, send me an e-mail with your answer. The fifth correct answer will receive a 1987 Topps (#150) Wade Boggs baseball card. Which reminds me of another favorite post. It is a crime that the Red Sox have not retired Wade Boggs' number.

Thank you again. I am not done. Not by a long shot.

Don't forget about Dustin Pedroia

Since 2008, Dustin Pedroia has taken turns with the Yankees' Cano to finish in the top spot as baseball's top second baseman. But a June injury in 2012 and some oddball stats combined with a dismal season for the Red Sox to push Pedroia out of people's minds when considering the great second basemen of this era. That would be a mistake. The expectation here is that he will again take his rightful place and push Cano for the top spot again in 2013.

Pedroia ended in 2012 with his lowest on-base percentage and OPS of his career. But if you look at his season a year ago with a microscope, his numbers suffered because he probably played through an injury suffered in June that finally forced him to take some time off in July. June was a wasteland for Pedroia as he had a .538 OPS for the month. And when he only played 15 games in July, he posted all of a .295 on-base percentage.

The second baseman tried to play through his injury because that is the way he is. It was a mistake and it colored his season.

Just consider how his 2012 ended. During August and September, Pedroia had a triple slash line of, .330/.392/.518. But because of his June and July, the six different projection systems audited for this piece have projected he finishes below his career averages for all three items of that triple slash line and below his career wOBA. While it is understood that these projection systems spit out the data that is put in them and crunch out the numbers, the anomalies of his June and July are not accounted.

And the computers are not the only things that have downplayed Pedroia. There just isn't the buzz about him that there used to be. Part of that perhaps is that he got lost in the hoopla of the Red Sox the way they ended in 2011 and with what happened in 2012. But part of it is also that he missed a significant portion of 2010 and then had a season in 2012 that fell short of his previous standards.

And his 2012 had a few other weird things that happened statistically. His rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone in 2012 (O-swing) was below his career average. His overall swing percentage was also below his career average. His strikeout rate was also the lowest in three years. Despite this, his walk percentage fell from 10.4% in 2009, 10.5% in 2010 and 11.8% in 2011 to just 7.7% in 2012. That seems odd, doesn't it?

Taking a look at what he did with any counts where he reached three balls shows the difference. In 2011, Pedroia had 172 plate appearances where the count reached three balls. He walked 86 of those times or 50%. The relates to his career average of walking 45.5% of the time his count reached three balls. But in 2012, his count reached three balls 135 times and he walked only 48 of those times for a 35.5% rate.

Either this shows some sort of change in his approach (trying to do too much to help a bad club?) or it's just a one season fluke. The latter seems more the case. The bottom line of all this discussion is that his walk rate should bounce back to the 10% area where he has been the prior three seasons. All projections seem to agree with that belief at least.

Like all players in baseball, Pedroia will be as good in 2013 as his health allows. If he stays healthy, he is going to rejoin the debate on which second baseman is the best in baseball. The prediction here is that he will beat his projections and have a typical terrific Pedroia season.

Human Rain Delays

The spirit of Mike Hargrove lives on in Major League Baseball. Who are today's time wasters? I'll give you three: Jonathon Papelbon, Robinson Cano and Jose Valverde. Want to know more? Then check out my latest article for Big Leagues Magazine on e-stands now.

3000 for post number 3000

This post marks the three-thousandth post of this site. And I rarely write quick hit posts, so you have to figure an average of seven hundred words a post. So a decent estimate is that I have written two million, one hundred thousand words. Many of you have read at least a few hundred thousand of them and I am so appreciative that you stop by and read this stuff. To celebrate this milestone, let's celebrate those players who have reached 3,000 hits for their careers. There are twenty-eight of them. It would be easy enough to just list them. That would be boring. Instead, let's  give the details of each player's milestone hit (Pete Rose and Ty Cobb had another big milestone but we'll save for after the next thousand posts go by). Here we go!

Well, first, a disclaimer. With guys with a lot of hits over 3,000, I had to do some addition and subtraction to find out what year the event happened. I hope I don't get any of them wrong.

Of course we have to start with Pete Rose. If I did my calculations right, he reached hit 3,000 on May 16, 1978 in Montreal. He went three for five in the game and it was his second hit that made the mark. The hit came against Wayne Twitchell who started for the Expos. Rose doubled and scored in the first and singled to left for the milestone hit. The Reds won the game and Tom Seaver got the win. Rose made an error in the game at third base, but nobody is perfect.

Ty Cobb entered 1921 needing 144 hits to reach 3,000. He would reach the milestone in the second game of a double-header on August 19, 1921 against the Boston Red Sox. The game was played in Detroit and Cobb went three for five in the game and five for ten in the double-header. The third hit of the second game reached the milestone. The victim was Red Sox' pitcher, Elmer Myers, who was forced to pitch the entire game despite giving up ten runs on 19 hits and three walks. Like Rose, Cobb was 34 at the time. The double-header exploits lifted his average to .387. He finished the season at .389.

Sort of a weird pattern is going on here. Rose started 1978 needing 44 hits to get to 3,000. Cobb started 1921 needing 144. Hank Aaron started 1970 needing 44 hits to get to 3,000. Like Cobb, he got his milestone hit in the second game of a double-header. And like both Rose and Cobb, Aaron went three for five in the game. Aaron's happened on May 17, 1970. The big hit came in his first at bat against the Reds' Wayne Simpson in the first inning. The hit drove in a run. Unfortunately, the Braves lost both games that day in Cincinnati, the second one went fifteen innings. When Aaron got his hit, Pete Rose was watching out in right field.

A 38 year old Stan Musial entered the 1959 season needing 43 hits to get to 3,000. He was slowing down at this point and it took him until June 23, 1959 to get it done. The Cardinals were in Milwaukee to play the Braves. The hit came in his third at bat. He would go one for four in the game. He hit a single to left off of Carl Willey. Hank Aaron watched the hit from right field.

Tris Speaker entered the 1925 season in his 37th year on earth needing 39 hits to reach 3,000. He was also the manager of the Indians who finished the season in sixth place. He was in his seventh season as the player-manager. He would still finish the season batting .389 with a 1.057 OPS! He reached the 3,000 milestone on May 18, 1925 against the Washington Senators. The Senators were a great team and would end up winning the American League Pennant. The Indians won this one though, 9-6. Speaker went one for three in the game with two walks. He scored a run and drove in one.

Cap Anson finished his career before the turn of the 20th Century. We won't be able to get a game log for this one. As best I can tell, he hit his 3,000th hit sometime during the latter half of 1895. Anson was 43 at the time and still hit .335 playing for the Chicago Colts. He was also the player-manager.

Honus Wagner finished his career in 1917. We have the game logs only for his last two seasons. He reached 3,000 before that in 1914 when he entered that season needing 59 hits to reach the mark. He was 40 years old that season. According to the Sabr Baseball Biography Project:

"On June 9 he got his three-thousandth hit, doubling against Philadelphia's Erskine Mayer to become the first player to achieve that milestone in the twentieth century."

Carl Yastrzemski was 39 years old when the Red Sox played the Yankees in Fenway Park on September 12, 1979. Both teams had excellent records, but by this late in the season, the game was meaningless because both teams were double-digit games behind the front-running Orioles. The Red Sox won the game, 9-2. In the bottom of the eighth inning, Captain Carl came up with two outs and nobody on base. Jim Beattie was on the mound for the Yankees and Carl Yastrzemski hit a single to right for his 3,000th hit. His hometown fans gave him a long and huge ovation and then he left for a pinch runner waving his cap to the crowd on the way to the dugout.

For Paul Molitor's 3,000th hit, we'll again turn to the Sabr Baseball Biography Project for the story:

"On September 16, 1996, at Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium, Molitor singled in the first inning, the 2,999th hit of his major-league career. In the fifth inning, he hit a drive to right field off Jose Rosado and ended up on third base to become the first major leaguer to register a triple for his 3,000th hit. “I don’t know much about that young man [Rosado], but I know he did not try to avoid being the one who gave up my 3,000^th hit,” Molitor said. “I know he shook off a couple of signs and threw fastballs—saying, ‘If you’re going to get it, you’re going to get it.’”⁵³ George Brett and Molitor’s friend Robin Yount were among those on hand see him join them in the 3,000 hit club. The milestone hit came three years to the day after Winfield had collected his 3,000th hit, also for the Minnesota Twins, and the two became the first two players from the same hometown to accomplish the feat."

The 1925 Chicago White Sox were managed by Eddie Collins. He was also their regular second baseman. His double-play partner at short was Ike Davis. Heh. And he hit .346 that season at the age of 38! Collins started that season needing 48 hits to reach the 3,000 hit mark. He reached the milestone on June 2, 1925 in Detroit in a wild game against the Tigers. It was a game the Tigers would win, 16-15 and Collins went three for five in a losing effort. The second hit was the milestone hit.

Derek Jeter? Well, we all know that story. If by chance you don't, you can read about it here.

On July 18, 1970, a 39 year old Willie Mays played in a game against the Montreal Expos at Candlestick Park. He needed two hits to get to the 3,000 milestone. He went two for three to get the job done. The hit came in the sixth inning off of Bill Dillman and of course, it drove in a run.

  Eddie Murray was the Designated Hitter on July 30, 1995. He batted sixth in the lineup. Albert Belle was in front of him and Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez were behind him. Woof. That is a potent lineup. The Indians were rocking with a 41-17 record and easily beat the Twins in this game, 4-1. In the top of the sixth, Murray hit a single to right off of Mike Trombley to record hit number 3,000.

It is a real shame that Nap Lajoie finished his career on some of the worst teams ever. The 1914 Cleveland Naps were one of them. They went 51-102. LaJoie was 39 that season and was on his way out as a player. He would finish his career with two seasons in Philadelphia. Lajoie had 108 hits in 1914. His very last hit that season was his 3,000th.

Cal Ripkin Jr. was 39 years old in 2000 in the next to last year of his career. He started the 1970 season needing only nine hits to reach 3,000. Before the start of the game on April 15, 1970 against the Twins in the Hubert H. Humphrey Dome, he had only managed six and was batting .179. With 2,997 hits, Ripken would go three for five to reach the milestone. It was his third hit, a line drive single to center off of Hector Carrasco that got the job done.

On September 30, 1992, the Royals and the Angels were just playing out what was a bad year for both teams. George Brett, with the season winding down, still needed four more hits to reach 3,000. Unfortunately, the game was played in California and away from his adoring KC fans. Brett roped a double to left in the first and scored. He hit a single through the hole between first and second in the third. He hit a line drive single to center in the fifth. Then in the top of the eighth facing a long-forgotten pitcher by the name of Tim Forugno, Brett hit a line drive that the second baseman could not handle for his fourth hit. It was vintage Brett with three line drives to get to 3,000. Comically, one batter later, Brett was picked off first. That has to be the only time that has ever happened! He reached on an error in his last at bat of the game, so he reached base all five times he came to the plate.

In 1942, Hall of Fame player, Paul Waner, was playing for an awful Boston Braves team managed by Casey Stengel. He was definitely on the downside of his career and only hit .258 that season. On June 19, 1942 at home in another loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, Waner went one for five. But that one hit was his 3,000th hit. You can see an image of the hit here.

Robin Yount got his 3,000th hit on September 9, 1992. Like Waner, his team lost at home and like Waner, Yount went one for five. But that one hit put him at 3,000. It was a line drive to right-center off of Jose Mesa.

Tony Gwynn got his 3,000th hit in the first inning of a game where he eventually went four for five. The hit came off of starter, Dan Smith, who could not even pitch out of the first inning. The hit was a line drive to right-center.

Dave Winfield was 41 years old in 1993 when he played for the Minnesota Twins. The Twins were a bad club in 1993 but Winfield has his last decent season that year. On September 16, 1993, The Twins were down by two runs and had to face closer, Dennis Eckersley. After a Kirby Puckett lead off triple and a strikeout, Dave Winfield hit a single through the hole between third and short. Puckett scored. Winfield later scored the tying run to send the game into extra innings in a game the Twins eventually won. That perhaps might be one of the highest WPA scores we've seen on these milestone hits.

Like Winfield, Craig Biggio was 41 when he reached 3,000 hits. Unlike Winfield, it was Biggio's last season. Like Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit game, Biggio ended up with five hits in the game. The third one was the special one. After a ground out in the first inning, Biggio could not be retired the rest of the night as he went five for six. His single in the seventh off of Aaron Cook was his third hit of the game and the milestone. The hit also tied the game up in a game the Astros won in extra innings. Another high WPA milestone. The hit came at home for his home fans.

Rickey Henderson walked so many times that we'll have to forgive him that it took 23 seasons before he finally reached the magic 3,000 hit number. It happened on October 7, 2001. He was playing for the Padres at Colorado and it was the last game of the season. Henderson swung at John Thompson's first pitch and blooped a double to the right field line. He later scored the first run of the game. Henderson then took the rest of the day off.

Like Biggio, Rod Carew's 3,000th hit came in his last season in 1985. It happened on August 4 of that season in a win against his old team, the Twins. Carew only went one for five in that game. His one hit...the big hit...came as a single against Frank Viola in the bottom of the third inning. Carew had to share the spotlight that day as it was also the day that Tom Seaver won his 300th game.

Lou Brock also reached the 3,000 hit club in his last season in the big leagues. Brock's hit came against the same Chicago Cubs that traded him away to the Cardinals. Brock's milestone came in a win for the hometown fans.

Rafael Palmeiro recorded his 3,000th hit on July 15, 2005 in Seattle with a double against Joel Pineiro. I'm pretty sure that is the only 3,000th hit batter-pitcher combo that rhymes.

Wade Boggs was one of the best hitters I've ever watched in my lifetime. It is only fitting that he hit his milestone hit a week before Tony Gwynn. The two are often compared, but Gwynn was nowhere near as good a hitter as Boggs. Most know that Wade Boggs was the first player ever to have hit a home run for his 3,000th hit. The video can be found here.

Al Kaline finished his career with 3,007 hits. So it is pretty easy to figure out which one was his 3,000th. Only one other is easier. The game was September 24, 1974 in a game the Tigers lost to the Orioles in Memorial Stadium. Kaline had two hits in the game, but it was his first one, a lead off double in the top of the fourth against Dave McNally that was the milestone hit.

And finally, it just seems kind of right that Roberto Clemente finishes our list. His very last hit in the majors was his 3,000. It wasn't that he did not have more hits in him. It was just that he never got the chance as he was killed in a plane crash attempting a humanitarian airlift. His last hit was recorded on September 30, 1972 in a game against the New York Mets. The game was in Pittsburgh so his fans got to see his last hurrah. His last hit was a double off of Jon Matlack and he would later score his last run that same inning. To keep this record straight, it should be noted that those really weren't his last hits and runs scored. Clemente had four hits in the NLCS against the Reds.

There you go. There is my opus of a 3,000th post. It just might be my longest ever. Thank you again for giving me a reason to write for all these years.

Evan Longoria - Baseball's most indispensable player?

It is good to be Evan Longoria. He is 27 years old and knows that he will make millions of dollars a season until the year 2023. That has to be a pretty darned good feeling. Not only that, he plays for a team that has been competitive and in the the thick of things for every season he has been in the majors. Then again, there might be a correlation between those two facts in the last sentence. Evan Longoria might be the most indispensable player in baseball.

Longoria missed 88 games last season. Only three of them were rest days. All the 85 others were due to injury. While there is always some coincidence is such a statistic, the Tampa Bay Rays were 47-27 in the games he played and 43-45 in games he did not play. Those numbers are fairly stark--a .635 winning percentage with Longoria, .488 without him.

The average fan would probably not realize that since his first season in 2008, Evan Longoria has been the third most valuable player in baseball. The list goes like this: Pujols (34.4 fWAR), Braun (29.8 fWAR) and then Longoria (29.3 fWAR). Now consider that Pujols has played 768 games in that time. Braun has played 770 and Longoria has played 637. That's right, he has played 123 less games than Braun and 121 games less than Pujols and yet is right on their tails for the most valuable player since 2008.

If you break that down in wins per games played, Evan Longoria comes in at .046, Pujols at .044 and Braun at 0.38. There is something to be said, of course, for being able to stay healthy and Pujols and Braun have been able to stay healthier. But game for game, the only other player since 2008 that has been worth more per game is Utley at .047 wins per games played. Utley is probably on the other side of his great career. Longoria is just getting started.

The casual fan might think that Evan Longoria's great value that has been shown here today would be from his bat. But that is not the case. Longoria's wOBA and OPS are both 24th in baseball since 2008. Longoria has also been phenomenal in the field.

Since 2008, both Baseball-reference.com and Fangraphs have agreed on Evan Longoria's value in the field. Fangraphs ranks his defense as saving 54.5 runs since he began his career in 2008. B-R has him at 55. According to Fangraphs, that is the fifth highest in baseball during those five seasons. Only Gardner, Guttierrez, Beltre and Utley are ahead of him.

It is that combination of batting (137 OPS+ for his career) and fielding that makes Longoria so important to his team. The Rays will have just as good a shot at the American League East as long as Evan Longoria can stay in the lineup. Because when he is in there, he just might be the most indispensable and important player there is.

2013 projections for Manny Machado are too conservative

The leap is way too large to consider that the Baltimore Orioles went 33-18 once Manny Machado made the leap to the Major Leagues at the age of twenty last season. One player doesn't a .647 winning percentage down that stretch make. But it makes for a nice theory. After all, the third base position went from the worst fielding position in the majors to a savings of four and a half to seven runs (depending on the site) over the last 51 games.

I don't really know what the Fans Scouting Report is on Facebook player pages. But I do know that  I love what I see there. I normally see ratings in the 60s for most players in at least a few of the categories rated there. But not for Manny Machado. His scores showed a 73 for instincts, a 72 for first step, a 62 for speed (okay, he's not fast), a 73 for hands, a 78 for the quickness of his release, an 86 for arm strength and a 72 for accuracy. Sure, Adrian Beltre beats him in all those categories (except the speed thing). But we're talking a really good third baseman here.

And yet the projections all give him anywhere for his defense from 2.3 to 7 runs above average for his fielding in 2013. Will he really flatten out that much over the course of a full season? I really don't think so. I think what you are going to see is ten runs above average making the combination of he and Hardy one of the best left sides of an infield in baseball.

The projections for his offense are even more conservative. For example, Machado finished with a .183 ISO for his 51 games in 2012. And this was for a kid that went from Double-A to the majors at a young age. The highest ISO projection has him at .173. Most have him in the .150s to .160s. I don't see it. His home run to fly ball percentage was 11.7 percent and that is a pretty healthy rate. Combine that with an unusually low line drive percentage south of 14% in 2012 and it would seem that his line drive percentage will go up leading to more doubles and triples and if his home run production stays the same, that should organically mean an ISO of at least what he did last season. I believe it will be higher.

Machado did not exactly set the world on fire with his offense in his 51 games. His triple slash line was .262/.294/.445. Yeah, that's not setting cannons off or anything. But he was twenty years old! His OPS was .739. The projections for his 2013 set his range from .698 to a high of .752. I can't see it. For one thing, his walk percentage of only 4.2% in those 51 games is deceiving compared to his plate discipline numbers. For a young kid, he only swung at 29% of pitches out of the strike zone. And his walk percentage was always at least double that in all of his minor league stops.

I understand that projection systems are by nature conservative and based on numbers plugged into the computer and what the expectation of outcomes spit out based on all factors. And I am not saying that they are all wrong because my eyes tell me that the guy just looks like a great ballplayer.  I just think Manny Machado is going to continue to grow as a major league player. He has a great manager for bringing his talent along. My prediction (I'm not smart enough to project) is that he will improve on his 2012 start to his career and will be a five WAR player in 2013. Those who project for a living go from 1.2 WARP (BP) to a high of 3.7. I think he will top that easily. 

Troy Tulowitzki reclaims best shortstop title

The only thing that has kept Troy Tulowitzki from acclaim as baseball's best shortstop has been his propensity to get injured. He only played 47 games in 2012. He won Silver Slugger Awards in 2010 and 2011 as the best hitter for his shortstop position despite missing forty games in 2010 and another 19 in 2011. Despite missing those 59 games in 2010 and 2011, he was still a 6 WAR player. If he can dodge this injury thing in 2013, he has a chance to be the National League MVP. He is that good.

How good is Troy Tulowitzki when he is healthy? How about a career .373 wOBA? How about a career ISO of .212? His career triple slash line of .292/.364/.504 puts him among the best of the game, never mine his position.

He is a very patient hitter who also does not swing and miss very often. He has a 6.4% swing and miss rate for his career, but that figure has been under five for the past two seasons. He waits for a pitch he likes better than most too as his swing percentage is also among the lowest at 43.6%. He will walk between nine and ten percent of the time and only strikes out 15.7% for his career. He only struck out 9.4% of the time in his brief 2012.

His home runs per fly ball have always been in double digits for a percentage. The only flaws in his offensive game is that he hits as surprisingly high percentage of pop flies to the infield (13.4% for his career) and hits slightly more ground balls than fly balls. Well...and yeah, the injury thing.

Combine Troy Tulowitzki's offensive prowess as a shortstop with his fielding and you get a superstar. Well...that is until you get to 2012 where he was rated slightly below average in the field. That was probably a one year blip because his defensive metrics have always been excellent. It seems certain that if Tulowitzki had been able to stay healthy for the full season, he would have pulled the defensive metrics back where they usually are.

Of course, Tulowitzki will always get a bit of stink eye because he plays his home games at Coors Field. And sure, his career OPS at home is nearly a hundred points higher than his road OPS. But his road OPS is still .812 and that is pretty darned good.

Despite the fact that it has seemed like Troy Tulowitzki has been around for a long time, He is heading only into his Age 28 season, so he is just reaching his prime as a player.

Because of his injury past, it seems that projections for 2013 are conservative for him. Here are some of them with the biggest ones on top:

• Bill James - .298/.372/.522 with 28 homers
• Baseball Prospectus - .292/.370/.524 with 28 homers
• Steamer - .300/.374/.540 with 23 homers
• ZiPS - .294/.365/.535 with 23 homers

Only Bill James and Baseball Prospectus expect him to get a full playing season in. The rest have him missing games and that is fair considering his history.

But if Tulowitzki plays 155 games, he will hit over .300, hit over 30 homers and will be an MVP candidate with his combination of batting, position and fielding skills. Those projections that predict WAR give him a range of 5.5 to 6 as a projection for 2013. If he stays healthy, I don't see why that can't be pushed up to seven or seven and a half.

Troy Tulowitzki is one of the most talented players in baseball. Unfortunately, injuries have robbed us of far too much of his playing time. It would be great if he can play 155 times this season. Well...if would be great unless you were an opposing pitcher.

Coming to grips with antipathy for Jered Weaver

I need to deal with this intense dislike I have for Jered Weaver. I have not had this kind of dislike for a player since the earlier days of Chipper of the Braves and before that, Yaz of the Red Sox. The latter two I came to appreciate as--in the end--their body of work was worthy of respect and admiration. But I'm not there yet with Weaver and it is time to deal with it because he is one of the better pitchers of his generation.

Why do I dislike Weaver so intensely? Is there ever really a rhyme or reason for such feelings? It just is. Oh, I can say it is because of the way his temper boils over from time to time and has created scenes of anarchy. But I loved Clemens and he did that too. I can say it is his body language that seems to flip the bird at the world with everything he does. But so did Pedro when he was on the mound and I liked him. Maybe he suffers from memories of his brother, Jeff, who still fills my mind with nightmares.

No, there is no rational reason for hating Jered Weaver. It's just a thing that exists and looks for justification. It does not allow for a rational discourse of his pitching ability and performances. I cannot write about him fairly or with any kind of objectivity. How can I pull that off when I simply hate the guy?

But then there is his record. Since he began his career as a starter with the Angels in 2006, he has won 66.2 percent of his starts. His career ERA of 3.24 has been under 3.00 in each of the last two seasons. Those two seasons saw him go 38-13. Those are clearly some really impressive numbers.

And the way those numbers have been accumulated have been nearly as impressive. He is not a fireballing pitcher with a 95 MPH heater. He is not a ground ball savant. In fact, his ground ball to fly ball ratio of 0.70 for his career is among the lowest of his peers. And yet, only eight percent of those fly balls go over the fence and the last two seasons, his BABIPs have been insane at .250 and .241 respectively. In fact, his BABIP against has been an astounding .270 for his career. So clearly he induces a lot of useless contact.

Weaver's WHIP the last three seasons have been 1.074, 1.010 and 1.018 respectively. That is pretty darned impressive. He has improved his walk rate to only 2.1 per nine innings the last two seasons and his career strikeout to walk ratio is 3.17. All of those numbers are terrific.

Weaver has made at least 30 starts for five straight seasons, making him extremely durable despite being slight of stature with a violent throwing motion. He has earned respect for the way he has pitched no matter how much I dislike the guy.

Putting all feelings aside, there is a bit of a concern at how long he can stay as effective as he has been. His velocity has dipped a mile per hour in each of his last two seasons. You would think that violent, all-or-nothing pitching motion would catch up to him eventually. His long-term contract with the Angels seemed questionable at the time and still does due to these concerns.

But what will be will be and for right now, Jered Weaver has been a premier pitcher since he arrived on the scene for the Angels. His record speaks for itself. I acknowledge that I cannot get over my dislike for the guy. But at least admitting to how good he is will exonerate me just a little bit.

Pedro Florimon - not a star, but an improvement

The Minnesota Twins have admitted the mistakes of the past when it came to their middle infielders. One official is quoted by MLB Reports as admitting the mistake of sending away J.J. Hardy and the fiasco caused by Nishioka and Casilla. Admitting your problems is the first half of the battle, so they say. And it should be noted that the Twins' current options will not hit anywhere near where Hardy can hit. But at least for the time being, they have Pedro Florimon Jr., who can certainly field his position.

There is much to like about Florimon at short. In each of his last two seasons in the minors, he had over 350 assists in less than 125 games. And then last year with the Twins, he had 125 assists in just 42 starts. So he can go get it. In fact, in those 42 starts, he made 29 plays considered out of range.

Florimon has a great first step, lots of speed, good instincts and good strength in his throwing arm. Five of his seven errors were fielding errors and only two were throwing errors, so it's not like he is going to throw the ball all over the place. He is someone who can man the position for the first time since Hardy. His fielding will make people in Minnesota get some of the bad taste out of their mouths from Nishioka, Casilla and even Dozier.

The problem with Florimon is that there isn't much hope for him at the plate. He showed decent patience, swinging at only 44% of the pitches he saw and kept his O-swing below 30%. Those numbers did not translate into many walks. His walk rate was 6.7%. If he can get that up to over 8% like he did in his minor league career, that would be much better.

Florimon's BABIP was well below average at .274 in his 150 plate appearances. And part of that is that he hit grounders at a Jeter-inspiring rate of 2.65 for every fly ball he hit. If he is a slap and dash kind of hitter, he will always be somewhat limited by whatever his BABIP is. He has no appreciable power.

So, no, Pedro Florimon Jr. is not going to hit and be a star with the stick. But if he can field his position like I think he will, Florimon is going to be a huge improvement over the past two futile seasons.