First year starters are a crap shoot

Tonight, Nick Tropeano will be the 45th pitcher this season to make his Major League debut as a pitcher (and start at least one game). Last year, 57 pitchers did the same and there were 48 who did so in 2012. The data from those pitchers in their very first year and starting at least once in that first year shows that Tropeano and the Houston Astros are hoping for the best in what has not been a very successful adventure.

I don't know about you, but I love players making their debuts. It's part of that baseball circle of life thing that keeps the blood fresh and interesting. And I always root for the guy to do well. With the exception of the guys drafted in the top rounds, many of these pitchers worked their way through the systems, rode buses galore, didn't make a whole pile of dough and earned a shot. You want someone to make it after knowing that kind of history.

More often than not, it does not work out. Of the 48 pitchers that made their debut in 2012, only sixteen of them had an ERA better than league average. For every Chris Archer, there were two like Brooks Raley. And yet, I bet to a man, each and every one of those pitchers would not trade the experience for the world. I'm not sure about their managers.

Let's look at some of the overall numbers. The league average ERA in 2012 was 4.01. The average ERA of pitchers who started in their debut seasons was 4.41. In 2013, the league average ERA was 3.87 and the debut season guys compiled to a 4.20. This year, the average ERA is 3.76 and the debut guys are averaging 4.27.

And don't forget that those debut season numbers are propped up by guys who really succeeded. For example, Hyun jin Ryu and Jose Fernandez really propped those numbers up quite a bit in 2012.

Let's look at some other data:

Hits per nine: The league average has remained pretty stable at 8.7 hits per nine in 2012 and 2013 and 8.6 this year. The debut pitchers have averaged, 8.9, 9.1 and 9.4 respectively.

WHIP: The average WHIP in baseball for the last three years has been 1.309 (2012), 1.300 (2013) and 1.281 this year.  The debut pitchers have averaged following that same year pattern, 1.369, 1.372, 1.373. Again, significantly higher despite some real success stories bolstering the numbers.

Strikeouts per nine from 2012 through 2014: 7.6, 7.6 and 7.7. Same timeline for the debutantes: 7.4, 7.4 and 6.9.

Walks per nine from 2012 through 2014: 3.1, 3.0 and 2.9. For the debut review: 3.2, 3.3 and 2.9.

Strikeout to walk ratio in MLB from 2012 to 2014: 2.48, 2.51, 2.64. Now for the first timers: 2.33, 2.24 and this year, 2.34.

Did you notice a trend with those numbers? While the MLB averages have shown better peripherals across the board for pitching each season, with the exception of walks per nine and K/BB, the numbers for the debut guys are worse each year. Why would that be?

I have some theories but do not have time to test them out. One is that teams are pushing these debuts to younger pitchers or those with less experience. This theory might not hold water because the average debut age this year is 25 and it was in the 23 range in 2013 and 2012. But that also may be skewed by older debut guys like Tsuyoshi Wada and Jason Lane (as a pitcher). The other is that many of these debuts come for teams down in the standings with low payrolls and they might not benefit from the same quality of fielding behind them.

One last statistic because most don't think it significant: The winning percentage of the debut pitchers are (from 2012 to 2014 respectively), .461, .482 and .442.

We have looked at ERA, WHIP, H/9, K/9, BB/9 and K/BB. Of those six categories leading to eighteen numbers to look at over the three year period, only one stat for one year matches that year's average. One out of eighteen. All in all, the peripherals for every category were worse than league average and worse for successive years from 2012 to this year.

I will be rooting for Nick Tropeano. For one thing, he is Italian (or at least his name is). Secondly, he is from New York and lastly, I am a sucker fro guys trying to make a mark in their world. But as much as I root for Nick Tropeano, the odds are against him.

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: September 10, 2014

Have you ever noticed that my picks are always more successful west of the Mississippi than they are east of it? For example, I started yesterday with the east coast and was 1-3 before my supper digested. I built that up to 5-5 and then did not get another game wrong the rest of the day. Weird. Maybe in the east, the teams are more on par and play closer games and in the west, there are more differences between the teams. Whatever it is, the west gave me a good night.

I did pick Collin McHugh and Houston to beat the Mariners. That was a nice pick. I was unfortunately correct about the Tigers though Joe Nathan made it interesting as he always does.. I did not see the Phillies beating the Pirates though.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Orioles over the Red Sox: Brandon Workman wants to start and not be in the bullpen. He hasn't exactly made a case for himself. Wei-Yin Chen has a great record but it hasn't changed much in a while. I just pick the Orioles every night and that seems to work pretty well.
• The Nationals over the Braves: Here we go again...picking Stephen Strasburg against the Braves. Hey, he has to have a good outing against them some time...even if it's just lucky or something. Aaron Harang goes for the Braves.
• The Indians over the Twins: This pick did not work out yesterday. Mr. T.J. House has put it together, however, and has two really good outings in a row. Kyle Gibson wins more than he loses, but you got me as to how.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: I told you in the past that Jerome Williams' magic only lasts for a couple of starts with each new team. Then he turns into the guy his team wants to DFA. That's just his history. Vance Worley isn't grooving much better these days...
• The Rays over the Yankees: Jake Odorizzi over Chris Capuano. I don't want to talk about it.
• The Blue Jays over the Cubs: Hmm...which great young pitcher will pitch better, Drew Hutchison or Kyle Hendricks? That's a tough one. I turned it around to which team is better able to hit against each pitcher. There was my answer.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Poof. I knew this series would go down just like it did. Let's see if I'm right through the end. Rick Porcello needs to be better than he has been lately. James Shields is "Big Game" except when it comes to the Tigers.
• The Mets over the Rockies: Location is everything. If Rafael Montero wasn't pitching in vast Citi Field, I wouldn't pick him. But since he is with his fly ball tendencies, he can get away with that and get his first big league win. Tyler Matzek grimly takes the ball every fifth day...
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Despite a bad loss last night in which the Cardinal twitter universe spewed all over manager, Mike Matheny, I am predicting a good game from John Lackey and a bad one from Alfredo Simon.
• The Angels over the Rangers: Until Derek Holland came back and with Darvish out, Nick Tepesch was the best of the Rangers' young starters. That still wasn't saying much. Matt Shoemaker is a machine. Does he have a flaw?
• The Marlins over the Brewers: The Brewers can't do anything right and are sinking like a mafia swimmer. Wily Peralta has had a good season and maybe he can stop the bleeding. I wouldn't count on it. Jarred Cosart has been really good for the Marlins.
• The Mariners over the Astros: Nick Tropeano is from West Islip, NY, so you have to say his name right. Turn your hand up and tough your thumb to your forefinger and say, "Nick Trop-ee-AH-no." The young man, making his MLB debut, has impressive numbers for the PCL (a hitter's league) and good control. Too bad he goes against Hisashi Iwakuma at home. Sorry about that.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Dan Haren and Ian Kennedy both confuse and confound me, so I'll just pick the home team.
• The Diamondbacks over the Giants: Josh Collmenter has really impressed me this season. Nice job, sir. Ryan Vogelsong has a very nice wife.

And the Game of the Day

• The Athletics over the White Sox: I hate to be a hound, but Chris Bassitt doesn't have the command to beat a team like the A's. Jeff Samardzija should feel at home back in Chicago.

Yesterday: 10-5, Sept.: 71-52, Games of the Day: 92-60 (+6), Season: 1201-986

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: September 9, 2014

Nine of twelve picks were correct yesterday, which is a good day. Of the three incorrect picks, one went extra innings as the A's blew another save and then lost to the White Sox. I did not anticipate how far the Brewers have fallen as they lost to the Marlins. And it appeared that Danny Salazar was just teasing when his was so good in his last start. He was terrible on Monday and sank that pick like a torpedo.

I would take a day like yesterday pretty much every day. Let's see what I can do with a full schedule. Tuesday's picks:

• The Nationals over the Braves: The Nats can smell blood now and can put the Braves in their rear view mirror for good with another win. Jordan Zimmermann is certainly capable of shutting the Braves down and the Nats' offense can handle Ervin Santana.
• The Indians over the Twins: I almost got cute and picked the Twins. After all, Trevor May was much better his last time out. But in the all Trevor game, Trevor Bauer should have a good day at home.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: You can't stop these Pirates right now. They look pretty solid in the wild card spot. Edinson Volquez has been a big part of the team's success all season. David Buchanan has pitched respectably for the Phillies.
• The Yankees over the Rays: I'm grasping the last sign of Yankee life with this pick. Hiroki Kuroda has pitched well of late. The one thing bugging me is that Chris Archer always seems to shut the Yankees down.
• The Blue Jays over the Cubs: This year has been an adventure with Mark Buehrle. Early on, I could not believe he was doing so well and should have picked him more. Then I couldn't believe he would get so bad and I picked him too often and now he has pitched well again and I haven't picked him at all. Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta goes for the Cubs.
• The Orioles over the Red Sox: The O's have a magic number now (12) and it will at least come down to eleven as Chris Tillman should beat Anthony Ranaudo. Man, the Orioles are good.
• The Mets over the Rockies: Jacob deGrom is one of my favorite young pitchers. He reminds me of a young Jered Weaver with a power arm. Christian Bergman pitched well his last start but zero strikeouts tell me he was probably lucky.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Michael Wacha has come back at the perfect time and makes the Cardinals that much more formidable. He should handle the scuffling Reds and the Cards should hit Mike Leake.
• The Angels over the Rangers: I haven't thrived picking against Colby Lewis. But every time I watch him pitch, he looks ripe to be had. Hector Santiago goes for the Angels who are on a hitting frenzy of late.
• The Marlins over the Brewers: Is it fair to say that I have never liked Matt Garza. It goes way back to his days with the Rays. He's like that guy at the bar that thinks he is better than others even if you prove him wrong a hundred times. So this is personal as he loses to Tom Koehler.
• The Athletics over the White Sox: John Danks is terrible. He has a decent start once in a great while to give you hope, but for as young as he still is, it just isn't there. Jon Lester is easily the pick here.
• The Astros over the Mariners: Roenis Elias is not King Felix and I have already written about how good I think Collin McHugh has been. My only fear with this pick is the Astros' bullpen.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: I'm not thrilled to be picking Roberto Hernandez here. The pick is more for the Dodgers as a whole being better than the Padres. Of course there is also Andrew Cashner who cannot seem to harness his ability.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: Wade Miley has been pretty good in the second half. I just don't like him against the Giants' offense as it is going now. Yusmeiro Petit has been great for the Giants.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Tigers over the Royals: Say it ain't so. The Royals are the team under pressure here and not the Tigers. The Royals have never had to close the deal. The Tigers have done it often. Max Scherzer over Jason Vargas.

Yesterday: 9-3, Sept.: 61-47, Games of the Day: 91-60 (+6), Season: 1191-981

MLB Game Picks - Monday: September 8, 2014

My success of Saturday was short lived and Sunday thumped me with another sub-par day. Pitchers I should have counted on and did not: R.A. Dickey, Franklin Morales, Yordano Ventura, Brad Hand and Derek Holland. Pitchers I counted on and should not have: Cole Hamels, Tyson Ross, Ryan Cook and Tim Hudson.

That above pretty much sums up what went wrong yesterday. One thing that has gone well for quite a while now is the Game of the Day feature. Each day I pick a game I feel the most strongly about that is as much of a sure thing as you get in baseball. When I went on vacation at the end of June, that feature was unbelievably six games under .500. Here it is two months and change later and that feature is thirty games over.

Oh, and Nelson Cruz had a pretty good day yesterday, eh?

Monday's picks:

• The Indians over the Angels: I think I have mentioned it to the point of being sick of myself that the Indians are very good at home. And Danny Salazar has started to become brilliant again after a long absence of such. That combination should be enough to defeat Jered Weaver and the Angels.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Miguel Cabrera has gotten hot even if he can't even trot. Ha! The Tigers always seem to find a way to get back on top. I would personally love to see the Royals change things up and win the division. But I will believe it when I see it. Justin Verlander over Jeremy Guthrie.
• The Nationals over the Braves: Who scares you right now in the Braves' lineup? Nobody, right? They got zipped by Brad Hand. What will Doug Fister be able to do? Mike Minor is not the same bad pitcher he was in the first half of the season.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: The Pirates have climbed back in the race for the wild card and are peaking at a good time. Jeff Locke is the only question mark here. Kyle Kendrick has confounded me all season though.
• The Blue Jays over the Cubs: Jacob Turner was really good his last time out, but that was against a really struggling Brewers. The Blue Jays are a different offense for him to deal with. Marcus Stroman has been great and my only regret is that I did not hold on to him in my Fantasy league.
• The Orioles over the Red Sox: I like Joe Kelly a lot. I think he was well worth the Lackey deal straight up. However, today he faces the machine called the Orioles and you cannot resist the machine. Miguel Gonzalez goes for the O's.
• The Mets over the Rockies: Jon Niese has quietly put together another nice season as a Mets' starter. The pun in that sentence was accidental. He has a good chance of winning today because I cannot remember the last time Jordan Lyles won a game despite his nice, 6-2 record.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: The Cardinals are like that snowball you tried to build into the boulder and it got so big that you could barely roll it to the top of the hill. Once the hill was crested, that thing is pounding down the hill taking everything in its path. Shelby Miller over Dylan Axelrod.
• The Brewers over the Marlins: The Brewers are decimated and depressed. They are this dead heap of stuff that is still mathematically alive in the wild card race. They get a reprieve tonight as Yovani Gallardo should be better than Brad Penny.
• The Athletics over the White Sox: You can almost guarantee a homer by Adam Dunn against his old team, can't you? I am worried about the A's bullpen which really melted down last night against the Astros. I'm still a Sonny Gray guy and think he'll be better than the surprisingly good Hector Noesi.
• The Mariners over the Astros: The Astros continue to be better than their payroll and had a good series against the A's. But I cannot see Felix Hernandez losing to them at home and Brad Peacock will be the hard luck loser.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Padres: How can today's game of the day not be anyone but Clayton Kershaw against the Padres? He has decimated them all season. Being a lefty, he also puts two of the Padres' most potent hitters on the bench. Sorry, Odrisamer Despaigne. I can now spell that name without looking it up.

Yesterday: 7-8, September: 52-44, Games of the Day: 90-60 (+5), Season: 1182-978

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: September 7, 2014

The first five days of September were hardly inspiring for this old game picker. And yesterday, after the first ten games were in the books, I was sitting at 4-5 after counting the Cubs' loss in the suspended game from yesterday. But then seven straight correct picks came in for me to end the night at 11-5. Finally, a good day.

I don't have time to bask in the glow of the breakthrough. There is a full day of games to sort out and a tee time waiting. Heh.

Sunday's picks:

• The Indians over the White Sox: Poor Quintana again did not get support last night. Kluber was excellent. Carlos Carrasco has been surprisingly good for the Indians. Scott Carroll has his ups and downs.
• The Yankees over the Royals: Shane Greene had a really bad outing his last time out. This pick reflects the belief that he will bounce back nicely today. It's Derek Jeter day at the Stadium, so the Yankees have to win. Of course, Yordano Ventura will try to prevent that from happening.
• The Braves over the Marlins: Neither team is playing very well, but one of them has to win. Julio Teheran is a better pick than Brad Hand and that's what I'll go with.
• The Mets over the Reds: Neither team has an offense you can count on and both are sporting starting pitchers with big arms. Determining the outcome depends on which of those big arms performs. I'm going with Zack Wheeler over Mat Latos.
• The Phillies over the Nationals: I keep picking against the Phillies and they keep on winning. It's getting annoying. Making the switch is fairly easy knowing that Cole Hamels is pitching today. Gio Gonzalez won't keep up.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: This game is really tough because I do not trust either starter. R.A. Dickey could have a good game or the Red Sox could jump all over him. Rubby De La Rosa hasn't pitched a good game in a good long time. I'm taking the Red Sox at home.
• The Orioles over the Rays: It would really surprise me if the Rays won this series. Baseball is a funny game, however, and you never know. I do know that I am not a big fan of Jeremy Hellickson and Bud Norris has had a good season.
• The Angels over the Twins: Logan Darnell has had a rude start to his MLB career. However, his peripherals are good with a good K/9 and K/BB ratio. So maybe he has been unlucky. I'm still going with C.J. Wilson.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: The Cards have a chance to bury the Brewers today and have Adam Wainwright on the mound. You would think that would do the trick. Jimmy Nelson looks good at times, but this sounds like a Cards win.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: Derek Holland sure had a fine comeback outing the last time out. The only problem is that the Rangers won't hit James Paxton thus canceling out anything Holland does.
• The Athletics over the Astros: Man, the Astros lost a tough one yesterday with a blown save for the ages. Closer Chad Qualls did not get anyone out in giving up the three runs to lose it. Jason Hammel will win half of his games so picking him is a 50/50 proposition. The same can be said for Dallas Keuchel.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Tony La Russa said that he won't make up his mind about Kirk Gibson until the end of the season. Uh huh, right. He's already a goner. Today won't help with Zack Greinke defeating Trevor Cahill.
• The Padres over the Rockies: Tyson Ross has pitched well at Coors with a 3.13 ERA there. But he is 0-3. That changes today. Franklin Morales has gotten knocked around hard in his home park. The only caveat is that lefties hurt the Padres.
• The Giants over the Tigers: Miguel Cabrera has hit four homers in his last three days. So obviously he has woken up. But the Tigers still lost yesterday despite his two dingers and VMart's 30th homer. Kyle Lobstein has pitched well but doesn't last long enough to get decisions. I am worried about Tim Hudson. He is showing his age.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Pirates over the Cubs: My good feelings about the Cubs evaporated yesterday as they stunk up the joint. Gerrit Cole should finish them off today and Travis Wood continues to take it on the chin for his team.

Yesterday: 11-5, Sept.: 45-36, Games of the Day: 89-60 (+4), Season: 1175-970