The New York Yankees' past week could not have gone more swimmingly. They took three of four from the fading Seattle Mariners (The Red Sox would demolish that team later in the week) and then went down to their personal house of horrors at Tropicana Field and took two of three from the front runners. Both of those wins came against the Bay Rays' stud pitchers, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. Of course, they still haven't found a way to beat the abominable "Opener" whenever the Rays cheapen the game by using that strategy. Sorry, folks, just my opinion...
The best news of all came yesterday when Chad Green was called back from Triple-A and threw bullets and struck out three straight batters. Welcome back to greatness, Mr. Green.
And so the Yankees find themselves just a half a game back in the AL East and the Red Sox are starting to play like the Red Sox and are only three back. Everything is starting to gel just like I predicted it would. The Yanks have returned home to Yankee Stadium and this week will play the Baltimore Orioles and those same Rays for the weekend. The Red Sox will host the Rockies and the Astros this week.
I believe tonight will mark the return of Aaron Hicks. I don't know if that will be a good thing or not. Other teams get players back like the Rays did Austin Meadows and he hits moonshots all over the place. The Yankees get players back like Miguel Andujar and they get one hit in the month of May. I have to say that I was surprised that the Yankees sent Mike Tauchman down to the minors as the corresponding move. It seemed to me that it should have been Andujar who needs to get some playing time and figure things out. Perhaps he should have had that operation after all.
The Yankees also placed Jonathan Loaisiga on the DL for a shoulder strain (uh oh) and have called up Chance Adams, who might start tonight's game. Hmm...
Let's face it, the Yankees need to sweep the Orioles. Teams like the Orioles are going nowhere and the Yankees other AL East competitors have no problem beating the O's regularly. The Yankees need to do so as well. Anything short of a sweep will be disappointing. The Orioles have zero pitching. I mean, none. Baltimore is dead last in the AL in ERA and the Yankees face starters, David Hess, Andrew Cashner and Dan Straily. All three are struggling with perhaps Cashner being the best of the trio.
The Yankees will counter with Adams (perhaps), JA Happ and Domingo German. It would be nice if Adams could pitch well and give some hope that he is a prospect many have hoped he would be, especially after last year's abysmal three game debut. He is only 24. But the clock is ticking. The thing is, even if Adams blows up, the Yankees should win in a slugfest.
After an off day on Thursday, the Yankees will host the Rays. Glasnow went on the DL right after his Yankee start, so they will not have to worry about him. But they cannot seem to hit Charlie Morton, Blake Snell is elite and, to be sure, there will be an opener in there somewhere.
When the Yankees have the Rays at home, they have to win and winning two of three would be great if they can do that again next weekend. It is a lot to expect from this continuing rag band of players, but they have spoiled us by keeping things interesting (understatement alert). A 6-1 week would be great. Anything less than 5-2 would be disappointing.
Monday, May 13, 2019
Thursday, May 09, 2019
Returning Injured Yankees Can Be A Problem
The New York Yankees projected a powerhouse lineup to begin the 2019 season but all that was derailed by injuries up and down the potent cast. While it is anyone's guess when Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius return, there have begun a slow dribble of returning players such as Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar. And perhaps this weekend might see the return of Aaron Hicks. Such returns are not always good things.
Teams get into a sort of rhythm with regular games occurring nearly every day. This group of Yankee scrubs have been playing together for a while and have gelled and have given Yankee fans unexpected thrills along the way.
Suddenly that flow gets interrupted when a player returns. Gary Sanchez is probably an exception to that statement because he is so much better than the alternatives. But others have to shake off the rust, may take a while to get going and could under-perform the scrubs who have been playing regularly.
Miguel Andujar is a strong case in point. Last year, Andujar arrived with a bang. He has come back from the DL with a whimper. He started a couple of games at third forcing Gio Urshela back to the bench. The result might have led to that loss to the Twins. He has started in the field three games and has made three errors, shown limited range and hasn't hit his weight.
How is Aaron Hicks going to start when he rejoins the Yankees? Will he show obvious signs of rust? Will he start slowly at the plate? Those are the risks that occur when you replace a guy who is in the flow of things with a guy with better talent coming back from an injury. Who will the Yankees send down when Hicks returns? Will it be Mike Tauchman who has held his own at the plate (around one bad slump) and has played a terrific outfield? Or will it be Thairo Estrada, who has also shown good leather plus a good bat and is much more versatile than Andujar?
What I am trying to say here is that a return of regulars does not always push immediate buttons and sometimes leads to a bit of a downturn in on-field performance until the returnees get settled in. If you want to read more, Chris Carelli wrote a good perspective on some problems that develop like this in his SNY piece today.
In other thoughts, losing James Paxton for three weeks to a month might be the most damaging of all the injuries the Yankees have suffered thus far. Paxton was developing into the Yankee ace he was expected to be. The slack left by Luis Severino has been picked up by Domingo German. But nobody is going to bring what Paxton brings to the Yankees. Last night's lopsided loss was a testament to how much that loss hurts.
The loss of Dellin Betances has been felt all season as the Yankees seem to be one arm short all the time in the bullpen. If Paxton was to miss more time than a month, the rotation would have an equally harmful hole and necessitate Brian Cashman to lose prospects to bring in another starting pitcher.
Teams get into a sort of rhythm with regular games occurring nearly every day. This group of Yankee scrubs have been playing together for a while and have gelled and have given Yankee fans unexpected thrills along the way.
Suddenly that flow gets interrupted when a player returns. Gary Sanchez is probably an exception to that statement because he is so much better than the alternatives. But others have to shake off the rust, may take a while to get going and could under-perform the scrubs who have been playing regularly.
Miguel Andujar is a strong case in point. Last year, Andujar arrived with a bang. He has come back from the DL with a whimper. He started a couple of games at third forcing Gio Urshela back to the bench. The result might have led to that loss to the Twins. He has started in the field three games and has made three errors, shown limited range and hasn't hit his weight.
How is Aaron Hicks going to start when he rejoins the Yankees? Will he show obvious signs of rust? Will he start slowly at the plate? Those are the risks that occur when you replace a guy who is in the flow of things with a guy with better talent coming back from an injury. Who will the Yankees send down when Hicks returns? Will it be Mike Tauchman who has held his own at the plate (around one bad slump) and has played a terrific outfield? Or will it be Thairo Estrada, who has also shown good leather plus a good bat and is much more versatile than Andujar?
What I am trying to say here is that a return of regulars does not always push immediate buttons and sometimes leads to a bit of a downturn in on-field performance until the returnees get settled in. If you want to read more, Chris Carelli wrote a good perspective on some problems that develop like this in his SNY piece today.
In other thoughts, losing James Paxton for three weeks to a month might be the most damaging of all the injuries the Yankees have suffered thus far. Paxton was developing into the Yankee ace he was expected to be. The slack left by Luis Severino has been picked up by Domingo German. But nobody is going to bring what Paxton brings to the Yankees. Last night's lopsided loss was a testament to how much that loss hurts.
The loss of Dellin Betances has been felt all season as the Yankees seem to be one arm short all the time in the bullpen. If Paxton was to miss more time than a month, the rotation would have an equally harmful hole and necessitate Brian Cashman to lose prospects to bring in another starting pitcher.
Tuesday, May 07, 2019
Some Unsung Babe Ruth Facts
The idea for this post developed while I was searching if Babe Ruth ever hit a home run, stole a base and pitched in the same game. I had heard some facts on Pablo Sandoval and his exploits of that trifecta being the first time anyone had performed such a feat since 1905. And no, Babe Ruth never hit a home run and stole a base in the same game that he pitched. But checking it out and looking at Babe Ruth's baseball-reference.com page did show me some things that blew my mind. So I thought I would share them with you.
There are two ways you can tell analytics did not exist back in Babe Ruth's time and one of those also showed how much animosity the press had with Ruth back in his playing time:
Most people think of Babe Ruth as the Yankees' right fielder. And for the latter third of his career, he mostly was. But Babe Ruth started almost as many games in his career as a left fielder as he did in right. Ruth started 1120 games in right field during his career and 1040 in left. He also started 64 games in center field and another 23 at first base. Ruth was lousy at first but he had a higher than league average fielding percentage in all three outfield positions. I don't know how b-ref figured range figures for back then, but according to them, Ruth also had better range than league average at all three outfield positions. He was not just a fat guy who slugged homers.
Babe Ruth won all three of his World Series pitching starts (all with the Red Sox). In those games, he pitched 31 innings and gave up three runs on 19 hits. His one start in 1916 lasted fourteen innings and he pitched them all to get the win.
Ruth's World Series OPS at 1.214 in 41 games was higher than his career average of 1.164. He was the original Mr. October. Between his pitching and batting careers, he won eight World Series titles.
Babe Ruth was the best pitcher in baseball in 1916. He led the league in starts with 40, ERA at 1.75, Shut outs (9), and hits per nine innings. He did not give up a home run that entire season. He was nearly as good in 1917 but gave up two homers that season. Add that up and he pitched 650 innings, gave up only 474 hits and only gave up two homers. He was a better pitcher than people realize.
Sometimes, we get images of the great Babe Ruth striking out and it makes us think he struck out a lot. But in all of his seasons, he struck out more than 89 times only twice (93, 90). Lest you think he was only a three outcome kind of guy, he batted higher than .350 eight times in his career.
Babe Ruth led the lead in extra base hits (doubles + triples + homers) six times in his career. In 1921, he had 119 of them (out of 204 hits). That has been a MLB record ever since. It was only threatened once by Lou Gehrig who had 117 in 1927. Barry Bonds had 107 in 2001 and that has been the closest anyone has been since. As you can imagine, Ruth's 457 total bases that season was only threatened once, by Rogers Hornsby with 450. That single season total has also been a record since 1921.
Babe Ruth led the league in Runs Scored eight times and seven times scored more than 150 runs in a season.
I could probably go on a lot longer, but I'm getting hungry. Sometimes I wish I had a time machine so I could go back and watch Babe Ruth play. Yes, I know it was a segregated game back when Babe Ruth played. Even so, no one has ever dominated the sport like he did.
There are two ways you can tell analytics did not exist back in Babe Ruth's time and one of those also showed how much animosity the press had with Ruth back in his playing time:
- During his post-pitching career--basically from 1919 on, Babe Ruth sacrifice bunted 99 times in his career. What!? The most fearsome hitter of his era (or perhaps any era) gave himself up 99 times. Either his managers were dopes or Ruth did those things on his own to try to be a team player. In 1930, Babe hit 49 homers and batted .359 with a 1.225 OPS. Incredible numbers, but even so, he had 21 sacrifice bunts that season after having 13 the season before. At the peak of his powers, he either was asked to bunt or bunted on his own 66 times in a five year period. He even had 14 Sacrifices in 1927 when he hit 60 homers. Bob Shawkey was his manager in 1930. The team finished third that season. Joe McCarthy took over the following season and Babe Ruth never had another sacrifice bunt.
- Babe Ruth only won one MVP Award. That was in 1923. The award was re-instituted in 1922 after a hiatus since 1914. Ridiculously, Babe Ruth did not get another MVP vote (not a single vote in between) until 1931 when he finished fifth. The following year, Ruth finished sixth. In contrast, Lou Gehrig won two MVP's and finished in the top five six other times. Babe Ruth played fifteen seasons for the Yankees and hit 659 homers during that time with a compiled 135.5 Wins Above Replacement during those seasons and only received MVP votes in three of those seasons. What a crock.
Most people think of Babe Ruth as the Yankees' right fielder. And for the latter third of his career, he mostly was. But Babe Ruth started almost as many games in his career as a left fielder as he did in right. Ruth started 1120 games in right field during his career and 1040 in left. He also started 64 games in center field and another 23 at first base. Ruth was lousy at first but he had a higher than league average fielding percentage in all three outfield positions. I don't know how b-ref figured range figures for back then, but according to them, Ruth also had better range than league average at all three outfield positions. He was not just a fat guy who slugged homers.
Babe Ruth won all three of his World Series pitching starts (all with the Red Sox). In those games, he pitched 31 innings and gave up three runs on 19 hits. His one start in 1916 lasted fourteen innings and he pitched them all to get the win.
Ruth's World Series OPS at 1.214 in 41 games was higher than his career average of 1.164. He was the original Mr. October. Between his pitching and batting careers, he won eight World Series titles.
Babe Ruth was the best pitcher in baseball in 1916. He led the league in starts with 40, ERA at 1.75, Shut outs (9), and hits per nine innings. He did not give up a home run that entire season. He was nearly as good in 1917 but gave up two homers that season. Add that up and he pitched 650 innings, gave up only 474 hits and only gave up two homers. He was a better pitcher than people realize.
Sometimes, we get images of the great Babe Ruth striking out and it makes us think he struck out a lot. But in all of his seasons, he struck out more than 89 times only twice (93, 90). Lest you think he was only a three outcome kind of guy, he batted higher than .350 eight times in his career.
Babe Ruth led the lead in extra base hits (doubles + triples + homers) six times in his career. In 1921, he had 119 of them (out of 204 hits). That has been a MLB record ever since. It was only threatened once by Lou Gehrig who had 117 in 1927. Barry Bonds had 107 in 2001 and that has been the closest anyone has been since. As you can imagine, Ruth's 457 total bases that season was only threatened once, by Rogers Hornsby with 450. That single season total has also been a record since 1921.
Babe Ruth led the league in Runs Scored eight times and seven times scored more than 150 runs in a season.
I could probably go on a lot longer, but I'm getting hungry. Sometimes I wish I had a time machine so I could go back and watch Babe Ruth play. Yes, I know it was a segregated game back when Babe Ruth played. Even so, no one has ever dominated the sport like he did.
Monday, May 06, 2019
The Yankees This Week - Seattle and Tampa Bay
The New York Yankees enter the second week in May and continue to hang on despite their incredible string of injuries. The two-game sweep by Arizona last week was unfortunate but taking two of three from a much-improved Minnesota Twins helped ease the pain a little bit. This could be an important week as the Yankees face two unexpectedly good teams in the Mariners and Bay Rays.
As expected, the Red Sox are starting to right their ship and are only a game under .500. They just lost David Price with elbow problems, but are in good shape otherwise. Also as expected, the Rays are not running away with the AL East as the opening weeks of the season seemed to portend. I did not believe it then and I do not believe it now. Still, they are a smart team and will pose problems for the Yankees this coming weekend, especially at their stink-house, Tropicana Field. More on that later.
First, the Yankees must deal with the Seattle Mariners who come to Yankee Stadium for a four-game set. The Mariners started on fire and were the big story (along with the Rays) in the AL at the start of the season. But they have lost nine of the team's last twelve games and the Astros have regained their expected spot at the top of the AL West. Frankly, the Mariners are a team with a ton of holes.
First off, the Mariners' current rotation consists of Felix Hernandez who, at this stage of his career, sort of resembles Pedro Martinez in his Mets days. There has been a lot of gas leaked out of his arm over the long haul and his reputation will get him a while, but he's no longer a great pitcher. The rest of the rotation consists of Mike Leake, Marco Gonzalez (who will come back to earth), Yusei Kikuchi and Eric Swanson. Despite Gonzalez's early success, Kikuchi and Swanson might be their best two. The Yankees will face the entire rotation except for Swanson.
The Mariners lead the American League in homers. Who saw that coming? But along with those homers comes many, many strikeouts as they lead the AL in that category too. This drags their OPS down to third in the AL and falling. However, Edwin Encarnacion always gives the Yankees fits and they have a DH named, Daniel Vogelbach, who is killing the ball and does not strike out a lot. Mitch Haniger is probably the team's best all-around player.
The Yankees will start CC Sabathia tonight which means two starting pitchers with 951 combined MLB starts, but their better days behind them. Which one can spin the most magic tonight? Masahiro Tanaka--always a 50-50 proposition--will be battling with Marco Estrada tomorrow. The Yankees have not announced a starter for Wednesday, but it could be Jonathan Loaisiga taking what was James Paxton's spot. JA Happ will face Kikuchi on Thursday.
Clint Frazier is back and in the lineup for the Yankees tonight and will play right field. That should help. The Yankees have wisely listened to me (heh) and are DHing Miguel Andujar and starting Gio Urshela at third. Nice. The lineup looks more potent than it has in more than a week now but Luke Voit has been slumping the last couple of games.
It would be nice if the Yankees could win three of four of these games and they are certainly capable of that. The Mariners' bullpen and the Yankees' bullpen have both been an adventure and it might come down to which team's pen performs better. The minimum is that the Yankees have to at least split this series.
After Thursday's game, the Yankees will fly down to that house of horrors in St. Petersburg to play the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays' offense is just middle of the road and the Yankees will catch them with Joey Wendle and Austin Meadows on the DL. Meadows has been a nice break out star and losing him hurts the Rays. Brandon Lowe and Tommy Pham are their two best remaining offensive players.
It will be a tough three game series for the Yankees offensively. They will miss Charlie Morton who gives them fits, but they will probably see Blake Snell at the end of the weekend (though he has struggled a bit lately) and definitely will see this year's wunderkind, Taylor Glasnow. Glasnow has been amazing thus far. I mean, super amazing.
There is a possibility of Aaron Hicks being ready for the weekend series, but frankly, the Yankees should wait until after the Tampa series. Why have Hicks running around on that green concrete as his first taste back?
My gut feelings is that facing Snell and Glasnow and thinking about the Yankees at that horror field and their lack of success there, the Yankees will be fortunate to win one of the three games. That is why winning three against the Mariners is important. This is certainly a week where the Yankees need to hold their own because, on review, it could be a long, long week for Yankee fans.
As expected, the Red Sox are starting to right their ship and are only a game under .500. They just lost David Price with elbow problems, but are in good shape otherwise. Also as expected, the Rays are not running away with the AL East as the opening weeks of the season seemed to portend. I did not believe it then and I do not believe it now. Still, they are a smart team and will pose problems for the Yankees this coming weekend, especially at their stink-house, Tropicana Field. More on that later.
First, the Yankees must deal with the Seattle Mariners who come to Yankee Stadium for a four-game set. The Mariners started on fire and were the big story (along with the Rays) in the AL at the start of the season. But they have lost nine of the team's last twelve games and the Astros have regained their expected spot at the top of the AL West. Frankly, the Mariners are a team with a ton of holes.
First off, the Mariners' current rotation consists of Felix Hernandez who, at this stage of his career, sort of resembles Pedro Martinez in his Mets days. There has been a lot of gas leaked out of his arm over the long haul and his reputation will get him a while, but he's no longer a great pitcher. The rest of the rotation consists of Mike Leake, Marco Gonzalez (who will come back to earth), Yusei Kikuchi and Eric Swanson. Despite Gonzalez's early success, Kikuchi and Swanson might be their best two. The Yankees will face the entire rotation except for Swanson.
The Mariners lead the American League in homers. Who saw that coming? But along with those homers comes many, many strikeouts as they lead the AL in that category too. This drags their OPS down to third in the AL and falling. However, Edwin Encarnacion always gives the Yankees fits and they have a DH named, Daniel Vogelbach, who is killing the ball and does not strike out a lot. Mitch Haniger is probably the team's best all-around player.
The Yankees will start CC Sabathia tonight which means two starting pitchers with 951 combined MLB starts, but their better days behind them. Which one can spin the most magic tonight? Masahiro Tanaka--always a 50-50 proposition--will be battling with Marco Estrada tomorrow. The Yankees have not announced a starter for Wednesday, but it could be Jonathan Loaisiga taking what was James Paxton's spot. JA Happ will face Kikuchi on Thursday.
Clint Frazier is back and in the lineup for the Yankees tonight and will play right field. That should help. The Yankees have wisely listened to me (heh) and are DHing Miguel Andujar and starting Gio Urshela at third. Nice. The lineup looks more potent than it has in more than a week now but Luke Voit has been slumping the last couple of games.
It would be nice if the Yankees could win three of four of these games and they are certainly capable of that. The Mariners' bullpen and the Yankees' bullpen have both been an adventure and it might come down to which team's pen performs better. The minimum is that the Yankees have to at least split this series.
After Thursday's game, the Yankees will fly down to that house of horrors in St. Petersburg to play the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays' offense is just middle of the road and the Yankees will catch them with Joey Wendle and Austin Meadows on the DL. Meadows has been a nice break out star and losing him hurts the Rays. Brandon Lowe and Tommy Pham are their two best remaining offensive players.
It will be a tough three game series for the Yankees offensively. They will miss Charlie Morton who gives them fits, but they will probably see Blake Snell at the end of the weekend (though he has struggled a bit lately) and definitely will see this year's wunderkind, Taylor Glasnow. Glasnow has been amazing thus far. I mean, super amazing.
There is a possibility of Aaron Hicks being ready for the weekend series, but frankly, the Yankees should wait until after the Tampa series. Why have Hicks running around on that green concrete as his first taste back?
My gut feelings is that facing Snell and Glasnow and thinking about the Yankees at that horror field and their lack of success there, the Yankees will be fortunate to win one of the three games. That is why winning three against the Mariners is important. This is certainly a week where the Yankees need to hold their own because, on review, it could be a long, long week for Yankee fans.
Thursday, May 02, 2019
The Biggest Cover Up On The Planet - Jacoby Ellsbury
The new norm in American culture is the conspiracy theory. Trump this, Obama that, Hillary this, Attorney General Barr that. But you can forget all about those and the FBI election secrets. Those are all chump change when it comes to the Jacoby Ellsbury / Yankees cover up and conspiracy. Can we get a subpoena for Jacoby Ellsbury to talk to Congress?
As far as I can tell, Jacoby Ellsbury has not talked to anyone in a long, long time. Do a Google search and look for the last time Jacoby Ellsbury was quoted as saying anything. I could not find anything. Can you? Oh wait! I found one here.
The last time that Jacoby Ellsbury suited up for baseball was during the 2017 playoffs. He went zero for 12 with two walks. That was the end. Zip. Nada. Nothing since. His contract was for $168 million spread out over seven years. The contract has this year and next year to go and then a $5 million buyout. So your grand total is $173 million for what has thus far added up to 8 fWAR or 10 rWAR depending on which system you like better.
Here is what we know: Sometime after the 2017 post season and in Spring Training 2018, Ellsbury pulled an oblique muscle during batting practice. According to MLB.com, After that injury, Ellsbury and the Yankees tried a number of avenues to deal with the injury to no avail and he had arthroscopic surgery performed by Dr. Bryan Kelly on his hip (hip?) to repair a torn labrum. Somehow his injury went from his oblique to his sacroiliac and all that led to a hip surgery. Yes, the stomach bone is connected to the hip bone, etc.
The surgery ended his 2018 season that never began and recovery time was pegged for six months. There was talk that he was going to show up for Spring Training on March 5 or 6, but that never happened and the lights went dark other than his name being among the multitude of injured Yankees.
There have been reports that the Yankees have given away his locker. Hmm...interesting. But, what seals the conspiracy aspect of this are the words of Aaron Boone on April 28. Let's look at them from a New York Post story and keep in mind how vague they are:
As far as I can tell, Jacoby Ellsbury has not talked to anyone in a long, long time. Do a Google search and look for the last time Jacoby Ellsbury was quoted as saying anything. I could not find anything. Can you? Oh wait! I found one here.
The last time that Jacoby Ellsbury suited up for baseball was during the 2017 playoffs. He went zero for 12 with two walks. That was the end. Zip. Nada. Nothing since. His contract was for $168 million spread out over seven years. The contract has this year and next year to go and then a $5 million buyout. So your grand total is $173 million for what has thus far added up to 8 fWAR or 10 rWAR depending on which system you like better.
Here is what we know: Sometime after the 2017 post season and in Spring Training 2018, Ellsbury pulled an oblique muscle during batting practice. According to MLB.com, After that injury, Ellsbury and the Yankees tried a number of avenues to deal with the injury to no avail and he had arthroscopic surgery performed by Dr. Bryan Kelly on his hip (hip?) to repair a torn labrum. Somehow his injury went from his oblique to his sacroiliac and all that led to a hip surgery. Yes, the stomach bone is connected to the hip bone, etc.
The surgery ended his 2018 season that never began and recovery time was pegged for six months. There was talk that he was going to show up for Spring Training on March 5 or 6, but that never happened and the lights went dark other than his name being among the multitude of injured Yankees.
There have been reports that the Yankees have given away his locker. Hmm...interesting. But, what seals the conspiracy aspect of this are the words of Aaron Boone on April 28. Let's look at them from a New York Post story and keep in mind how vague they are:
Before the Yankees’ 6-4 win over the Giants on Saturday at Oracle Park, manager Aaron Boone said Jacoby Ellsbury is “dealing with different things” and that “a number of little things that continue to pop up.’’
Ellsbury is on theIL(DL!) after having hip surgery last year, and Boone said the outfielder is dealing with shoulder and hip problems. Ellsbury hasn’t played in a big league game since 2017 because of a long list of ailments.
“Certainly not in the short term,’’ Boone said when asked about Ellsbury making it back to the team.
Compare the vagueness of that answer to any other time Boone has been asked about an injury. He usually says things like: "The doctor says that the metacarpal is still sore and there is some swelling still that has to be dealt with before he can start baseball activities." I made that up, of course, but those are the types of answers both Boone and Brian Cashman give when questioned.
But what does Boone say about Ellsbury? "Umm...ahh...he is dealing with different things and a number of little things that continue to pop up." Okay...right. Ellsbury has once again been pushed to the 60-day disabled list.
You would have to assume that the Yankees have insurance on Ellsbury's contract. You would have to assume that they collected on that insurance last year. Another missed year for Ellsbury would mean more insurance payments, right? Wrong? Probably. Is the vagueness some sort of buffer to continue the insurance payments? Ellsbury's not talking. Boone is not talking specifics. It stinks or at least smells badly.
It seems pretty certain that Jacoby Ellsbury will never play for the Yankees again. If they can ever get healthy, the team has Aaron Hicks, Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Brett Gardner. There is no room on that dance card, especially for a guy who was not very good the last time he played and has since missed two years of baseball.
I have never seen a situation like this one with the Yankees and a bad free agent signing. I've seen teams dump players. I've seen one bad contract traded for another. I've seen a now-terrible player still playing. But I've never seen a bad free agent signing hidden away and buried. Perhaps the conspiracy thing is tongue-in-cheek, but maybe it isn't.
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I was listening to a sports radio program. I wish I could remember which one and the guest on the program was a former basketball NBA star. I cannot remember which one of those he was either, especially since I have not followed the NBA since Bill Bradley retired. But something about that interview stuck in my head.
The player was asked why his team never had many injuries and other NBA teams have lots of injuries. The player responded that much depends on the type of fitness people you hire. Some teams make it a super-high priority and others do not. I found that to be interesting.
Then, I thought about the Yankees. If you look at a lot of the injuries they have sustained thus far, many of them have been muscular. Judge had an oblique tear. Stanton had a bicep problem. Hicks has soreness in his back. Clint Frazier sprained an ankle. I believe Sanchez's injury was muscle related. Does that go back to the Yankees' fitness people? Are they not performing the correct exercises for the range of motion of playing baseball? Do they not stretch properly?
The statements by the former NBA player and the injuries to the Yankees, not only this year, but last year, make me wonder. I do not want people to lose good jobs, but I think it warrants further investigation by a team so dominated by metrics.
Wednesday, May 01, 2019
Were We Watching Two Hall Of Fame Pitchers In Sabathia and Greinke?
Last night we watched CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke pitch a very competitive game as the Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the New York Yankees, 3-1. Sabathia gave up only two runs in 5.1 innings and notched his 3,000th strikeout against John Ryan Murphy, a catcher he used to throw to when Murphy was with the Yankees. Greinke, meanwhile, pitched 7.2 strong innings against an albeit depleted Yankee lineup and won his fifth game in six decisions. The Diamondbacks are 6-1 when Greinke pitches. Did we witness a future Hall Of Fame match up?
For better or worse, Roy Halladay's inclusion in the Hall of Fame on top of that of Jack Morris has changed the equation a bit with starting pitchers. Morris, we will not discuss at all as his inclusion was ridiculous. Halladay was one of the first "modern" pitchers voted into the Hall with the new emphasis of shorter outings, pitch counts and heavy bullpen usage--though Pedro Martinez and Mike Mussina could also be in that conversation.
Halladay finished with a Wins Above Replacement total of 64.5 (baseball-reference.com) or 65.4 (fangraphs.com). According to JAWS, he is the 43rd best starting pitcher of all time. Halladay finished with a 203 wins, a .659 Winning Percentage, a 3.39 career FIP and 2117 strikeouts. He won two Cy Young Awards and finished in the top five in that award five other times.
If Roy Halladay is our new bottom standard for Hall of Fame pitchers (no disrespect meant), then where do CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke stand? Let's start with Greinke as he seems to have a more solid argument.
Zack Greinke has two more years on his contract and is 35-years-old. At his current rate of productivity, he will add a bit to his resume. Greinke currently has compiled 66.9 career WAR (Fangraphs.com lists him more than ten wins lower!) and JAWS considers him the 47th best pitcher of all time. He won his 192nd game yesterday, good for a .617 winning percentage. He has a 3.40 career FIP and 2,481 strikeouts. He was won Cy Young Award and was screwed out of another and has finished in the top five as recently as two years ago.
Greinke is also one of the best fielding pitchers of his generation and arguably his generation's best hitting pitcher. It can easily be speculated that Greinke will finish with near 210 wins, 2,600 strikeouts and 68-70 WAR.
CC Sabathia is in his last season. Whatever he compiles this season will be it. And with the Yankees' quick bullpen trigger, Sabathia does not get the chance to pile up a lot of decisions. He made 29 starts last year and only figured in 16 decisions (Greinke figured in 26 decisions in his 33 starts). Sabathia currently has Wins Over Replacement totals of 63.2 (b-ref) and 66.4 (fWAR). Sabathia has 247 wins and should go over the 250 mark by season's end. And, as stated, he reached 3,000 strikeouts last night. Sabathia has a .616 winning percentage and should not finish under .614 even if things go flooey. Sabathia used to be a good hitter but has not had a hit since 2009 and is laughably one of the worst fielding pitchers of his generation.
JAWS considers Sabathia the 68th best starting pitcher of all time. But, he is also only the third left-handed pitcher to record 3,000 strikeouts and the last pitcher to compile ten complete games in a season AND 250 innings.
Roy Halladay had big moments in the post season. Who can ever forget that perfect game? Greinke and Sabathia have been okay in the post season but not great.
Personally, Zack Greinke is a lock. Since he left the Kansas City Royals after 2011, he has won over 70% of his decisions. That is still an important statistic to me. He has been effective even for teams who play in hitters' parks like Milwaukee and Arizona. I believe him to be one of the most underrated pitchers of his generation.
CC Sabathia will be an interesting case. The 3,000 strikeouts are impressive. The legend of what he did that season for Milwaukee will never grow old in the telling. He might just be the last pitcher to win 250 games. Pitching for the Yankees will be a blessing and a curse for his case. I think he is on the bubble which might get blown in after all is said and done.
Personally, if I had a vote, I would vote Sabathia, Greinke and Justin Verlander into the Hall of Fame. Time will tell how the voters really feel about the trio. All three are at least better than Jack Morris.
For better or worse, Roy Halladay's inclusion in the Hall of Fame on top of that of Jack Morris has changed the equation a bit with starting pitchers. Morris, we will not discuss at all as his inclusion was ridiculous. Halladay was one of the first "modern" pitchers voted into the Hall with the new emphasis of shorter outings, pitch counts and heavy bullpen usage--though Pedro Martinez and Mike Mussina could also be in that conversation.
Halladay finished with a Wins Above Replacement total of 64.5 (baseball-reference.com) or 65.4 (fangraphs.com). According to JAWS, he is the 43rd best starting pitcher of all time. Halladay finished with a 203 wins, a .659 Winning Percentage, a 3.39 career FIP and 2117 strikeouts. He won two Cy Young Awards and finished in the top five in that award five other times.
If Roy Halladay is our new bottom standard for Hall of Fame pitchers (no disrespect meant), then where do CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke stand? Let's start with Greinke as he seems to have a more solid argument.
Zack Greinke has two more years on his contract and is 35-years-old. At his current rate of productivity, he will add a bit to his resume. Greinke currently has compiled 66.9 career WAR (Fangraphs.com lists him more than ten wins lower!) and JAWS considers him the 47th best pitcher of all time. He won his 192nd game yesterday, good for a .617 winning percentage. He has a 3.40 career FIP and 2,481 strikeouts. He was won Cy Young Award and was screwed out of another and has finished in the top five as recently as two years ago.
Greinke is also one of the best fielding pitchers of his generation and arguably his generation's best hitting pitcher. It can easily be speculated that Greinke will finish with near 210 wins, 2,600 strikeouts and 68-70 WAR.
CC Sabathia is in his last season. Whatever he compiles this season will be it. And with the Yankees' quick bullpen trigger, Sabathia does not get the chance to pile up a lot of decisions. He made 29 starts last year and only figured in 16 decisions (Greinke figured in 26 decisions in his 33 starts). Sabathia currently has Wins Over Replacement totals of 63.2 (b-ref) and 66.4 (fWAR). Sabathia has 247 wins and should go over the 250 mark by season's end. And, as stated, he reached 3,000 strikeouts last night. Sabathia has a .616 winning percentage and should not finish under .614 even if things go flooey. Sabathia used to be a good hitter but has not had a hit since 2009 and is laughably one of the worst fielding pitchers of his generation.
JAWS considers Sabathia the 68th best starting pitcher of all time. But, he is also only the third left-handed pitcher to record 3,000 strikeouts and the last pitcher to compile ten complete games in a season AND 250 innings.
Roy Halladay had big moments in the post season. Who can ever forget that perfect game? Greinke and Sabathia have been okay in the post season but not great.
Personally, Zack Greinke is a lock. Since he left the Kansas City Royals after 2011, he has won over 70% of his decisions. That is still an important statistic to me. He has been effective even for teams who play in hitters' parks like Milwaukee and Arizona. I believe him to be one of the most underrated pitchers of his generation.
CC Sabathia will be an interesting case. The 3,000 strikeouts are impressive. The legend of what he did that season for Milwaukee will never grow old in the telling. He might just be the last pitcher to win 250 games. Pitching for the Yankees will be a blessing and a curse for his case. I think he is on the bubble which might get blown in after all is said and done.
Personally, if I had a vote, I would vote Sabathia, Greinke and Justin Verlander into the Hall of Fame. Time will tell how the voters really feel about the trio. All three are at least better than Jack Morris.
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
The Yankees This Week And Other Thoughts
I wrote somewhat conservatively last week about the West Coast swing the New York Yankees faced despite facing two struggling teams. The week really could not have gone better (other than the Chad Green meltdown that cost the one loss). They went 7-1 for the week and kept pace with the still-winning Bay Rays. The Yankees end their trip with two games against the highly competitive Diamondbacks and then fly home for a weekend set against the Twins. Let's take a look at the week ahead.
Tonight, the Yankees face Zack Greinke and counter with CC Sabathia. The Diamondbacks are 16-13 and battling the Dodgers for the NL West division. And they have a good team, which is surprising considering who departed this season, namely Paul Goldschmidt. To this point, that deal is looking just fine as his replacement at first base, Christian Walker, leads Diamondback position players in WAR and is having a terrific season.
He is not alone. Many of the offensive players on the team are batting well as the team is currently ranked first in slugging percentage in the NL and fifth in OPS. The only batting weaknesses they have are at short, second and behind the plate. Heck, even Zack Greinke has an OPS of 1.731 with two homers.
Greinke is homer-prone, but has won four of his five decisions and has looked particularly good lately. The second starter (tomorrow) is a 30-year-old journeyman getting his first shot in the big leagues: Merrill Kelly. Kelly should be an easier task than Greinke, but the Yankees should be very familiar with Greinke as an organization.
The Diamondbacks' bullpen is deep and talented. After some injury-plagued seasons, Greg Holland is back to being dominant as the closer. Archie Bradley, Yoshihisa Hirano and Andrew Chafin have all been effective. The one caveat with this bullpen is allowing free passes as all of their top relievers are averaging four walks per nine or more. But then again, the same can be said of the Yankees' bullpen.
Neither Gio Urshela nor DJ LeMahieu are in the lineup tonight, which is not good news and are huge losses in this hodgepodge lineup. If the Yankees are to win tonight, Sabathia and the bullpen will need to be sharp and hope the Yankees can scratch out a few runs. At least Sabathia knows what a bat looks like.
Tomorrow, it will be Masahiro Tanaka and the aforementioned Kelly, which seems a wash to me. Tanaka, in my humble opinion, is always a fifty-fifty proposition whenever he takes the mound.
After an off day on Thursday, the Yankees will face the Twins at home. The Twins at Yankee Stadium have always been a welcome sight. But they are a good team this year. They are in first place in the AL Central with a sparkling 17-9 record. Led by new manager, Rocco Baldelli, the Twins are no longer the fusty, old-fashioned team we are used to. Joe Mauer is gone.
The Twins' offense has been effective. Heck, Eddie Rosario has eleven homers already and Byron Buxton has twelve doubles! They are first in the AL in OPS. The Twins' bullpen might be one of their biggest strengths and they are getting surprisingly good starting pitching considering its rotation makeup.
I am expecting a split in Arizona and a 2-1 edge over the Twins. That Twins series could go the other way, however and in a heartbeat.
With two more injuries, this time to Urshela and LeMahieu, how much more can this Yankee lineup be stretched? Success this week will totally depend on how well they pitch. If they do not pitch well, the week could be a long, long one.
Other Thoughts:
One of the great Yankees sites closed its doors this week as River Avenue Blues called it quits after twelve years. I have been blogging for a long, long, long time and I know how hard it is to keep the drive going. But these guys set the standard for all things Yankees and they were a must read. I remember when working for "It's About The Money Stupid," a favorite saying among the writers when a good idea was written about, only to have it beaten into print by RAB, was, "We've been Axisa-ed again!" Good luck to all their writers and a hearty thank you for their work over the years. One of the best things you could say about them was that they were never jerks or arrogant on Twitter despite being the leaders of the pack. Well done, folks
Chad Green had a terrific first outing for the Triple-A team as he struck out five in two innings without allowing a run. Let's see if he can repeat that a few times because the Yankees really need him.
Tonight, the Yankees face Zack Greinke and counter with CC Sabathia. The Diamondbacks are 16-13 and battling the Dodgers for the NL West division. And they have a good team, which is surprising considering who departed this season, namely Paul Goldschmidt. To this point, that deal is looking just fine as his replacement at first base, Christian Walker, leads Diamondback position players in WAR and is having a terrific season.
He is not alone. Many of the offensive players on the team are batting well as the team is currently ranked first in slugging percentage in the NL and fifth in OPS. The only batting weaknesses they have are at short, second and behind the plate. Heck, even Zack Greinke has an OPS of 1.731 with two homers.
Greinke is homer-prone, but has won four of his five decisions and has looked particularly good lately. The second starter (tomorrow) is a 30-year-old journeyman getting his first shot in the big leagues: Merrill Kelly. Kelly should be an easier task than Greinke, but the Yankees should be very familiar with Greinke as an organization.
The Diamondbacks' bullpen is deep and talented. After some injury-plagued seasons, Greg Holland is back to being dominant as the closer. Archie Bradley, Yoshihisa Hirano and Andrew Chafin have all been effective. The one caveat with this bullpen is allowing free passes as all of their top relievers are averaging four walks per nine or more. But then again, the same can be said of the Yankees' bullpen.
Neither Gio Urshela nor DJ LeMahieu are in the lineup tonight, which is not good news and are huge losses in this hodgepodge lineup. If the Yankees are to win tonight, Sabathia and the bullpen will need to be sharp and hope the Yankees can scratch out a few runs. At least Sabathia knows what a bat looks like.
Tomorrow, it will be Masahiro Tanaka and the aforementioned Kelly, which seems a wash to me. Tanaka, in my humble opinion, is always a fifty-fifty proposition whenever he takes the mound.
After an off day on Thursday, the Yankees will face the Twins at home. The Twins at Yankee Stadium have always been a welcome sight. But they are a good team this year. They are in first place in the AL Central with a sparkling 17-9 record. Led by new manager, Rocco Baldelli, the Twins are no longer the fusty, old-fashioned team we are used to. Joe Mauer is gone.
The Twins' offense has been effective. Heck, Eddie Rosario has eleven homers already and Byron Buxton has twelve doubles! They are first in the AL in OPS. The Twins' bullpen might be one of their biggest strengths and they are getting surprisingly good starting pitching considering its rotation makeup.
I am expecting a split in Arizona and a 2-1 edge over the Twins. That Twins series could go the other way, however and in a heartbeat.
With two more injuries, this time to Urshela and LeMahieu, how much more can this Yankee lineup be stretched? Success this week will totally depend on how well they pitch. If they do not pitch well, the week could be a long, long one.
Other Thoughts:
One of the great Yankees sites closed its doors this week as River Avenue Blues called it quits after twelve years. I have been blogging for a long, long, long time and I know how hard it is to keep the drive going. But these guys set the standard for all things Yankees and they were a must read. I remember when working for "It's About The Money Stupid," a favorite saying among the writers when a good idea was written about, only to have it beaten into print by RAB, was, "We've been Axisa-ed again!" Good luck to all their writers and a hearty thank you for their work over the years. One of the best things you could say about them was that they were never jerks or arrogant on Twitter despite being the leaders of the pack. Well done, folks
Chad Green had a terrific first outing for the Triple-A team as he struck out five in two innings without allowing a run. Let's see if he can repeat that a few times because the Yankees really need him.
Thursday, April 25, 2019
A Little Story About Hal Kelleher
I received a comment a few days ago on an old post of mine about the worst batting games of all time. It was fun to read the old post and see that I used to be a pretty darned good writer. Upon reading the post, the thought struck me about who pitched the worst relief outing in history. What relief outing was so bad that it blew the doors off the game. Once I had an idea of how to proceed, I kind of fell in like with one of our main characters. Before we get to him, let's look at some lists.
Just like the worst batting game of all time, I figured the best way to approach the worst relief appearance was the same way I approached the worst batting games. It is not enough to simply come into a game and just ralph all over the place with runs galore. The failure has to mean something too. The former would be like a position player coming in to pitch in a 15-2 game and getting hammered so it was then 21-2. The way I feel to measure the latter is by either WPA (Win Probability Added) or RE24 (Base-out Runs Saved). I quickly learned that the latter would not work here.
My criteria is a relief appearance of an inning or less and there were four relief efforts in history that scored over -10 in RE24. They were:
Kelleher came into his game with his team already behind, 8-2. Grabowski's team was losing, 10-4, when he came in to his massacre. None of Appleton's eleven runs were earned (how is THAT possible?). Only Harper's game mattered as his team was a run ahead when he entered the game and gave up his memorable four homers to the Yankees.
No, this stat seems to measure what a pitcher does with men on base and is not about the game situation. Again, we can call the most runs allowed in an inning the worst inning of pitched baseball. But I maintain that you have to add into that equation how important the butt-kicking was in the scheme of the game. So let's look at WPA.
There have been eight relief outings that were so bad and at such a bad time that they were worth more than a negative Win all by themselves. In other words, the Win Probability Added was worse than -1. As you can imagine, most were blown saves or wins.
All the dates on both lists are linked so you can go look at the game's boxscore yourself if you'd like. Both lists compiled using baseball-reference.com List tool
Both Derringer and Mark Davis blew a lead in the bottom of the ninth and then blew another lead in the bottom of the tenth! Pete Ladd, pitching for the Brewers came into the eighth inning against the Orioles with a three-run lead. Ladd allowed all of his inherited runners to score and then some as Eddie Murray hit a grand slam to put the Orioles up. The Brewers rallied to tie the game in the ninth only to have Ladd give up a walk-off single to John Stefero.
In a wild interleague game between the Yankees and the Phillies, Andy Pettitte started and was bombed out. He was rescued in a good outing by Doc Gooden and the game went back and forth. The Phillies had a 6-1 lead heading into the bottom of the ninth. The Phillies' Steve Schrenk and Bryan Ward quickly made a mess of that and Brantley came in with the bases loaded and needed to record one out to seal the victory. He could not do it as he gave up a single to tie the game before getting the third out. The Phillies took a two-run lead in the top of the tenth off of Mariano Rivera, but Brantley did not retire a batter in the bottom of the tenth. A walk, a HBP and three straight singles sealed Brantley's and the Phillies' fate.
Aceves gave up the most runs on this list as the Red Sox had a big lead only to have Aceves cough it all up against Angels. Lyon's game was another where he as a pitcher gave up the tying run in the eighth and then blew the lead in the ninth. Ron Davis and Todd Jones spectacularly did the same to their teams in their games.
So these eight games would fit my criteria as the worst relief inning in history. But if you want to talk about pure runs allowed in a single inning, non-dependent on circumstances, you come back to Hal Kelleher, who gave up twelve runs in his one inning of work. He was tied a decade later by Bubba Harris of the Philadelphia Athletics against the Boston Red Sox. You may prefer to call these the worst inning of relief pitching in history and I would not argue.
If you want to go by multiple innings, four pitchers allowed fourteen earned runs in multiple inning relief outings. That is only two more than Kelleher and Harris gave up in just one inning. So I am less willing to go with any of those four.
Sometimes, doing this kind of list building can draw you to one of the characters on your lists. For me, Hal Kelleher is that guy. When I went to his b-ref page, his fiasco of a game was the last game of his MLB career. He had pitched parts of four seasons and made his debut for the Philadelphia Phillies on September 17, 1935 in a start against the Cincinnati Reds. Kelleher threw a complete game shutout.
I would lay great odds that he is the only pitcher in history to have a CG shutout as his first appearance and a twelve earned run appearance as his last. Of course, his season began in 1935 as a late season call-up. He pitched three times, all as a starter. His first two games were complete games. He won his second game but it wasn't as pretty. He did not get a decision in his third despite throwing seven strong innings. He looked like a pitcher with promise. But the story did not go that way.
I wanted to know this guy. So I looked at where he came from and what his birth date was. He was born in Philadelphia on June 24, 1913. That is a year earlier than what is listed on b-ref. His father, John, was the son of Irish immigrants and was a manager at a hosiery manufacturer and a former policeman. John owned a house on 23rd Street that was worth $8,000. That was pretty good for those days. This information comes from the 1930 US census report. Harold Joseph "Hal" Kelleher was 16 at the time and lived with his father along with five of his other grown siblings (a policeman, a plumber, a stenographer and two who were chauffeurs!)
Hal Kelleher was just twenty years old when he was signed by the Phillies as a hometown kid and was assigned to Hazelton of the New York-Penn League. All the records can tell us is that he pitched ten games with them in 1934 and he finished with an 0-2 record in 28 innings.
Kelleher opened the season with Hazelton in 1935 and pitched 215 innings, by far the most work in a season he would accumulate. He finished his season in the minors with a 13-15 record and a 4.83 ERA. Regardless of these pedestrian numbers, he was a September call-up and pitched relatively well. That he was a hometown kid probably worked in his favor.
Kelleher pitched with the Phillies for part of the season in 1936 and did not perform well. He had a WHIP over 2 in 44 innings of work and had a 5.32 ERA. His win-loss record was 0-5. The pitcher split the season in the International League playing for Baltimore (the Orioles). He was even worse there in 33 innings.
Despite the struggles, he remained with the Phillies for the entire 1937 season. He pitched in 27 games and compiled 58.1 innings. He started twice and usually made mop up appearances the rest of the season. The numbers were not pretty. He finished, 2-4, with an ERA over six. Still, his walks and hits per inning were down a bit from the previous season. Kelleher had a nice stretch from mid-July to the middle of August after a rough start of the season. But his finish was awful as he gave up multiple runs and three of his losses in his last four appearances of that season.
And still, the Phillies kept him to start the fateful 1938 season. Was it that hometown thing? Did he show some sort of promise in an unseen way? Who knows. His season started okay. He had a mop up five innings of a lopsided loss where he pitched five and a third innings and gave up only two runs.
His second outing went well. The Phillies faced the Boston Bees (managed by Casey Stengel) and lost, 3-1. Kelleher pitched a clean eighth inning to give his team a chance to come back in the top of the ninth. But they did not. Still, after two outings, his ERA was 2.84. His last four outings, however, did not go well.
His third outing did not credit a run against him, but he only faced one batter and walked him. It was in the 12th inning against Brooklyn and after two outs, fellow Irishman, Bill Hallahan loaded the bases on a walk, a double and an intentional walk. In came Hal Kelleher to face Buddy Hassett and Kelleher walked him to bring in the walk off run.
A day later, the Phillies were facing the Bees again and held an 8-7 lead to start the top of the seventh. Tommy Reis walked the bases loaded and Kelleher came in with those bases loaded and no outs. He walked Dom DiMaggio to tie the score and he was pulled. DiMaggio later came in to score thus charging a run to Kelleher. The Bees scored six times that inning to blow the game up.
Four days later, the Phillies were beating the Cubs, 6-3 in the eight. After Claude Passaeu struggled including giving up the third run, Hal Kelleher was brought in and once again, and for the third straight appearance, faced one batter and walked him. Al Smith was brought in and saved the Phillies and the game.
To recap, Hal Kelleher started the season with two good outings. Then faced one batter thrice in the span of five days and walked that batter each time. That brings us to the fateful last game of his MLB career against the same Cubs the very next day. As mentioned earlier, the Phillies were already losing, 9-1 when Kelleher entered the game in the bottom of the eighth. Here is the sequence from there:
Single, walk, single (run), force-out (run), single, walk, double (2 runs), single (2 runs), single (1 run), walk, single (run), strikeout (!), single (run), triple (2 runs), single (run), popup to the catcher.
It must have been tough to walk off the mound and to the dugout after that performance. Twelve runs on ten hits and three walks. All the runs were earned and it sent his season ERA to 18.41. Nineteen days later, the Phillies sold his contract to the St. Louis Cardinals and the hometown kid was gone.
He pitched 136 combined innings for the Cardinals two Double-A affiliates the rest of that season with mixed results. However, he only pitched sixteen total innings for the Cardinals' minor league teams and was terrible in 1939 and they cut him lose. But unlike what reads in his obituary, Hal Kelleher had a comeback of sorts.
To find out what Hal Kelleher was doing in 1940, we look at two documents: The 1940 census and his WWII draft card, also from 1940. The census shows that his sister, Helen, the stenographer, was now the head of the household in the same 23rd Street house in Philly. Though there are no pitching records for Hal for 1940, he is listed as a baseball pitcher for his occupation. Helen worked 52 weeks and made $1,000. Hal worked 32 weeks and made $1,800. Their father had died in 1932 and the mother was gone as well. Listed in the household along with two other siblings were Hal's wife, Agnes, and their young daughter.
The 1940 WWII draft card gives good information too. It lists Hal as working for Pep Boys! That company began in Philadelphia in 1929 and had not yet blown out to the company it is now, and thus Hal probably knew Manny, Moe and Jack! It also showed Hal to be six feet tall and 175 pounds with blue eyes and brown hair.
The draft status probably caused Hal some consternation and later that year, he began his career with the Philadelphia police department (according to his obituary). There is no professional record of Kelleher playing in 1940, 1941, 1942 or 1943. But his baseball-reference.com page shows he came back to play in the minors in 1944 for the Brooklyn Dodgers' minor league affiliate for the Interstate League.
It seems the time away did him good as he had an excellent season for the Trenton Packers. Kelleher went 12-7 in 19 games (a decision for every game!?) with a 2.53 ERA. He cut his walk rate way down and his WHIP was a terrific 1.089. The Dodgers never called him up.
He pitched again for the Packers in 1945 and then was sent to pitch in Montreal for the Royals of the International league. He did not fare as well as the season before. Combined, he went 7-10 in 155 innings. Kelleher did pitch to a 2.58 ERA for the Packers where he went 6-8. But he got lit up in Montreal, which was a higher league. And that was the end of that. His professional career was again over.
Hal Kelleher worked for the Philadelphia Police Department until 1964 and then qualified for retirement. He was stationed at the 24th and Wolf Street station. After his duties as a police officer, he worked as the District Supervisor for the Police Athletic League for six years and also worked as an athletic trainer at La Salle University. According to his obituary, he also worked for the Provident Mutual Insurance Company until he retired in 1976.
He retired to Avalon, New Jersey, a coastal community just north of Wildwood. He had twelve years of retirement and then died at Cape May Courthouse in the southernmost tip of New Jersey and was buried in Avalon. He was survived by his wife, daughter and had four grandchildren.
We tend to focus on the negative in sports and Kelleher certainly had a negative with the distinction of having the worst relief appearance in the history of baseball. But it also seems he lived a full and productive life beyond his baseball career.
Just like the worst batting game of all time, I figured the best way to approach the worst relief appearance was the same way I approached the worst batting games. It is not enough to simply come into a game and just ralph all over the place with runs galore. The failure has to mean something too. The former would be like a position player coming in to pitch in a 15-2 game and getting hammered so it was then 21-2. The way I feel to measure the latter is by either WPA (Win Probability Added) or RE24 (Base-out Runs Saved). I quickly learned that the latter would not work here.
My criteria is a relief appearance of an inning or less and there were four relief efforts in history that scored over -10 in RE24. They were:
- Hal Kelleher - May 5, 1938: -11.491 RE24
- Reggie Grabowski - Aug 4, 1934: -10.404 RE24
- Pete Appleton - Aug 10, 1930: -10.391 RE24
- Travis Harper - June 21, 2005: -10.070 RE24
Kelleher came into his game with his team already behind, 8-2. Grabowski's team was losing, 10-4, when he came in to his massacre. None of Appleton's eleven runs were earned (how is THAT possible?). Only Harper's game mattered as his team was a run ahead when he entered the game and gave up his memorable four homers to the Yankees.
No, this stat seems to measure what a pitcher does with men on base and is not about the game situation. Again, we can call the most runs allowed in an inning the worst inning of pitched baseball. But I maintain that you have to add into that equation how important the butt-kicking was in the scheme of the game. So let's look at WPA.
There have been eight relief outings that were so bad and at such a bad time that they were worth more than a negative Win all by themselves. In other words, the Win Probability Added was worse than -1. As you can imagine, most were blown saves or wins.
- Paul Derringer - Sep 8, 1937: -1.237
- Mark Davis - Jun 8, 1989: -1.229
- Pete Ladd - Sep 18, 1983: -1.212
- Jeff Brantley - Jul 16, 2000: -1.099
- Alfredo Aceves - Aug 23, 2012: -1.078
- Brandon Lyon - Apr 7, 2009: -1.057
- Ron Davis - Apr 20, 1986: -1.052
- Todd Jones - Jun 1, 2007: -1.014
All the dates on both lists are linked so you can go look at the game's boxscore yourself if you'd like. Both lists compiled using baseball-reference.com List tool
Both Derringer and Mark Davis blew a lead in the bottom of the ninth and then blew another lead in the bottom of the tenth! Pete Ladd, pitching for the Brewers came into the eighth inning against the Orioles with a three-run lead. Ladd allowed all of his inherited runners to score and then some as Eddie Murray hit a grand slam to put the Orioles up. The Brewers rallied to tie the game in the ninth only to have Ladd give up a walk-off single to John Stefero.
In a wild interleague game between the Yankees and the Phillies, Andy Pettitte started and was bombed out. He was rescued in a good outing by Doc Gooden and the game went back and forth. The Phillies had a 6-1 lead heading into the bottom of the ninth. The Phillies' Steve Schrenk and Bryan Ward quickly made a mess of that and Brantley came in with the bases loaded and needed to record one out to seal the victory. He could not do it as he gave up a single to tie the game before getting the third out. The Phillies took a two-run lead in the top of the tenth off of Mariano Rivera, but Brantley did not retire a batter in the bottom of the tenth. A walk, a HBP and three straight singles sealed Brantley's and the Phillies' fate.
Aceves gave up the most runs on this list as the Red Sox had a big lead only to have Aceves cough it all up against Angels. Lyon's game was another where he as a pitcher gave up the tying run in the eighth and then blew the lead in the ninth. Ron Davis and Todd Jones spectacularly did the same to their teams in their games.
So these eight games would fit my criteria as the worst relief inning in history. But if you want to talk about pure runs allowed in a single inning, non-dependent on circumstances, you come back to Hal Kelleher, who gave up twelve runs in his one inning of work. He was tied a decade later by Bubba Harris of the Philadelphia Athletics against the Boston Red Sox. You may prefer to call these the worst inning of relief pitching in history and I would not argue.
If you want to go by multiple innings, four pitchers allowed fourteen earned runs in multiple inning relief outings. That is only two more than Kelleher and Harris gave up in just one inning. So I am less willing to go with any of those four.
Sometimes, doing this kind of list building can draw you to one of the characters on your lists. For me, Hal Kelleher is that guy. When I went to his b-ref page, his fiasco of a game was the last game of his MLB career. He had pitched parts of four seasons and made his debut for the Philadelphia Phillies on September 17, 1935 in a start against the Cincinnati Reds. Kelleher threw a complete game shutout.
I would lay great odds that he is the only pitcher in history to have a CG shutout as his first appearance and a twelve earned run appearance as his last. Of course, his season began in 1935 as a late season call-up. He pitched three times, all as a starter. His first two games were complete games. He won his second game but it wasn't as pretty. He did not get a decision in his third despite throwing seven strong innings. He looked like a pitcher with promise. But the story did not go that way.
I wanted to know this guy. So I looked at where he came from and what his birth date was. He was born in Philadelphia on June 24, 1913. That is a year earlier than what is listed on b-ref. His father, John, was the son of Irish immigrants and was a manager at a hosiery manufacturer and a former policeman. John owned a house on 23rd Street that was worth $8,000. That was pretty good for those days. This information comes from the 1930 US census report. Harold Joseph "Hal" Kelleher was 16 at the time and lived with his father along with five of his other grown siblings (a policeman, a plumber, a stenographer and two who were chauffeurs!)
Hal Kelleher was just twenty years old when he was signed by the Phillies as a hometown kid and was assigned to Hazelton of the New York-Penn League. All the records can tell us is that he pitched ten games with them in 1934 and he finished with an 0-2 record in 28 innings.
Kelleher opened the season with Hazelton in 1935 and pitched 215 innings, by far the most work in a season he would accumulate. He finished his season in the minors with a 13-15 record and a 4.83 ERA. Regardless of these pedestrian numbers, he was a September call-up and pitched relatively well. That he was a hometown kid probably worked in his favor.
Kelleher pitched with the Phillies for part of the season in 1936 and did not perform well. He had a WHIP over 2 in 44 innings of work and had a 5.32 ERA. His win-loss record was 0-5. The pitcher split the season in the International League playing for Baltimore (the Orioles). He was even worse there in 33 innings.
Despite the struggles, he remained with the Phillies for the entire 1937 season. He pitched in 27 games and compiled 58.1 innings. He started twice and usually made mop up appearances the rest of the season. The numbers were not pretty. He finished, 2-4, with an ERA over six. Still, his walks and hits per inning were down a bit from the previous season. Kelleher had a nice stretch from mid-July to the middle of August after a rough start of the season. But his finish was awful as he gave up multiple runs and three of his losses in his last four appearances of that season.
And still, the Phillies kept him to start the fateful 1938 season. Was it that hometown thing? Did he show some sort of promise in an unseen way? Who knows. His season started okay. He had a mop up five innings of a lopsided loss where he pitched five and a third innings and gave up only two runs.
His second outing went well. The Phillies faced the Boston Bees (managed by Casey Stengel) and lost, 3-1. Kelleher pitched a clean eighth inning to give his team a chance to come back in the top of the ninth. But they did not. Still, after two outings, his ERA was 2.84. His last four outings, however, did not go well.
His third outing did not credit a run against him, but he only faced one batter and walked him. It was in the 12th inning against Brooklyn and after two outs, fellow Irishman, Bill Hallahan loaded the bases on a walk, a double and an intentional walk. In came Hal Kelleher to face Buddy Hassett and Kelleher walked him to bring in the walk off run.
A day later, the Phillies were facing the Bees again and held an 8-7 lead to start the top of the seventh. Tommy Reis walked the bases loaded and Kelleher came in with those bases loaded and no outs. He walked Dom DiMaggio to tie the score and he was pulled. DiMaggio later came in to score thus charging a run to Kelleher. The Bees scored six times that inning to blow the game up.
Four days later, the Phillies were beating the Cubs, 6-3 in the eight. After Claude Passaeu struggled including giving up the third run, Hal Kelleher was brought in and once again, and for the third straight appearance, faced one batter and walked him. Al Smith was brought in and saved the Phillies and the game.
To recap, Hal Kelleher started the season with two good outings. Then faced one batter thrice in the span of five days and walked that batter each time. That brings us to the fateful last game of his MLB career against the same Cubs the very next day. As mentioned earlier, the Phillies were already losing, 9-1 when Kelleher entered the game in the bottom of the eighth. Here is the sequence from there:
Single, walk, single (run), force-out (run), single, walk, double (2 runs), single (2 runs), single (1 run), walk, single (run), strikeout (!), single (run), triple (2 runs), single (run), popup to the catcher.
It must have been tough to walk off the mound and to the dugout after that performance. Twelve runs on ten hits and three walks. All the runs were earned and it sent his season ERA to 18.41. Nineteen days later, the Phillies sold his contract to the St. Louis Cardinals and the hometown kid was gone.
He pitched 136 combined innings for the Cardinals two Double-A affiliates the rest of that season with mixed results. However, he only pitched sixteen total innings for the Cardinals' minor league teams and was terrible in 1939 and they cut him lose. But unlike what reads in his obituary, Hal Kelleher had a comeback of sorts.
To find out what Hal Kelleher was doing in 1940, we look at two documents: The 1940 census and his WWII draft card, also from 1940. The census shows that his sister, Helen, the stenographer, was now the head of the household in the same 23rd Street house in Philly. Though there are no pitching records for Hal for 1940, he is listed as a baseball pitcher for his occupation. Helen worked 52 weeks and made $1,000. Hal worked 32 weeks and made $1,800. Their father had died in 1932 and the mother was gone as well. Listed in the household along with two other siblings were Hal's wife, Agnes, and their young daughter.
The 1940 WWII draft card gives good information too. It lists Hal as working for Pep Boys! That company began in Philadelphia in 1929 and had not yet blown out to the company it is now, and thus Hal probably knew Manny, Moe and Jack! It also showed Hal to be six feet tall and 175 pounds with blue eyes and brown hair.
The draft status probably caused Hal some consternation and later that year, he began his career with the Philadelphia police department (according to his obituary). There is no professional record of Kelleher playing in 1940, 1941, 1942 or 1943. But his baseball-reference.com page shows he came back to play in the minors in 1944 for the Brooklyn Dodgers' minor league affiliate for the Interstate League.
It seems the time away did him good as he had an excellent season for the Trenton Packers. Kelleher went 12-7 in 19 games (a decision for every game!?) with a 2.53 ERA. He cut his walk rate way down and his WHIP was a terrific 1.089. The Dodgers never called him up.
He pitched again for the Packers in 1945 and then was sent to pitch in Montreal for the Royals of the International league. He did not fare as well as the season before. Combined, he went 7-10 in 155 innings. Kelleher did pitch to a 2.58 ERA for the Packers where he went 6-8. But he got lit up in Montreal, which was a higher league. And that was the end of that. His professional career was again over.
Hal Kelleher worked for the Philadelphia Police Department until 1964 and then qualified for retirement. He was stationed at the 24th and Wolf Street station. After his duties as a police officer, he worked as the District Supervisor for the Police Athletic League for six years and also worked as an athletic trainer at La Salle University. According to his obituary, he also worked for the Provident Mutual Insurance Company until he retired in 1976.
He retired to Avalon, New Jersey, a coastal community just north of Wildwood. He had twelve years of retirement and then died at Cape May Courthouse in the southernmost tip of New Jersey and was buried in Avalon. He was survived by his wife, daughter and had four grandchildren.
We tend to focus on the negative in sports and Kelleher certainly had a negative with the distinction of having the worst relief appearance in the history of baseball. But it also seems he lived a full and productive life beyond his baseball career.
Monday, April 22, 2019
Late Baseball For The Yankees
The hobbled New York Yankees managed to fly to California for a West Coast swing without bumping their heads with turbulence. It is a good start to what could be a promising trip. The first seven games consist of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of the West Coast of The United States and then the San Francisco Giants. The Angels are currently in last place with a 9-13 record. The Giants are in last place with a 9-14 record. Let's take a look at what is ahead.
The Yankees have announced JA Happ and Domingo German as the starters respectively for tonight and tomorrow. It is a little disconcerting that they have not announced who is pitching beyond that. Let us hope it is not that abomination called an "Opener," coming up this week. Gosh, that is so anti-baseball. But, whatever, Happ needs to get his act together and German needs to not lose his way when things get a little difficult. Mike Trout is back and he is always a factor. His On-Base Percentage is higher that most players' Slugging Percentage.
Right now, Trout and Tommy La Stella (I coulda been a contenda!) are about the sum of the Angels' offense. Tyler Skaggs will be back on Wednesday so the Yankees are fortunate to miss him for the first two games. Albert Pujols is doing pretty well for this geezer stage of his career. At least his OPS+ is over 100.
I always look for the player who has been really cold at the plate. Zack Cozart has been that guy. His current slash line looks like this: .102/.141/.119. Yeesh! Why do I look for the cold guys? Because the Yankees always seem to warm up such players. It happens every time.
The Yankees lineup looks like an away Spring Training game but this is the regular season. They have a chance though because the Angels cannot deliver a good pitching performance these days. Tonight, they face Matt Harvey and his 1.821 WHIP and tomorrow it will be Chris Stratton who has a shiny, even 2.000 WHIP. Translation, they have been getting cuffed around. The bullpen has not been effective with far too many walks. This is a pitching staff that coughs up a lot of dingers, walks too many people and does not strike out enough batters.
But still, you really have to worry about this Yankee lineup. It can be had right now. A split would not be a good outcome for this series. Just on pitching talent alone, the Yankees should win three of the games. But that is why they play the games, right, John Sterling?
The San Francisco Giants have been pitching well. The team's staff's only problem has been the home run ball. But the Giants' overall ERA is second in the National League. So far, the problem with the Giants has been offense. They are dead last in the National League in OPS and, of the regulars, Steven Dugger (who?) is the only one batting above .240. Brandon Belt has a decent OPS due to his four homers and nine walks, but is batting .213.
The Giant series could be a problem for the Yankees as they will have to let their pitchers bat and lose the DH (which, hopefully, will end some day). With their Triple-A lineup and strong pitching for the Giants, the team might really struggle to win games. A lot of 2-1 or 3-0 games could result from that three-game series.
The Yankees always have a difficult task with West Coast swings. It is fortunate that the first seven games will be against struggling teams. In the Yankees' current state, the only question is whether the team from the Bronx are catching teams when they are down or providing those teams with a rebound. The second week of the swing will come against the Twins and the Seattle Mariners. I'll talk about those series later in the week.
The Yankees have announced JA Happ and Domingo German as the starters respectively for tonight and tomorrow. It is a little disconcerting that they have not announced who is pitching beyond that. Let us hope it is not that abomination called an "Opener," coming up this week. Gosh, that is so anti-baseball. But, whatever, Happ needs to get his act together and German needs to not lose his way when things get a little difficult. Mike Trout is back and he is always a factor. His On-Base Percentage is higher that most players' Slugging Percentage.
Right now, Trout and Tommy La Stella (I coulda been a contenda!) are about the sum of the Angels' offense. Tyler Skaggs will be back on Wednesday so the Yankees are fortunate to miss him for the first two games. Albert Pujols is doing pretty well for this geezer stage of his career. At least his OPS+ is over 100.
I always look for the player who has been really cold at the plate. Zack Cozart has been that guy. His current slash line looks like this: .102/.141/.119. Yeesh! Why do I look for the cold guys? Because the Yankees always seem to warm up such players. It happens every time.
The Yankees lineup looks like an away Spring Training game but this is the regular season. They have a chance though because the Angels cannot deliver a good pitching performance these days. Tonight, they face Matt Harvey and his 1.821 WHIP and tomorrow it will be Chris Stratton who has a shiny, even 2.000 WHIP. Translation, they have been getting cuffed around. The bullpen has not been effective with far too many walks. This is a pitching staff that coughs up a lot of dingers, walks too many people and does not strike out enough batters.
But still, you really have to worry about this Yankee lineup. It can be had right now. A split would not be a good outcome for this series. Just on pitching talent alone, the Yankees should win three of the games. But that is why they play the games, right, John Sterling?
The San Francisco Giants have been pitching well. The team's staff's only problem has been the home run ball. But the Giants' overall ERA is second in the National League. So far, the problem with the Giants has been offense. They are dead last in the National League in OPS and, of the regulars, Steven Dugger (who?) is the only one batting above .240. Brandon Belt has a decent OPS due to his four homers and nine walks, but is batting .213.
The Giant series could be a problem for the Yankees as they will have to let their pitchers bat and lose the DH (which, hopefully, will end some day). With their Triple-A lineup and strong pitching for the Giants, the team might really struggle to win games. A lot of 2-1 or 3-0 games could result from that three-game series.
The Yankees always have a difficult task with West Coast swings. It is fortunate that the first seven games will be against struggling teams. In the Yankees' current state, the only question is whether the team from the Bronx are catching teams when they are down or providing those teams with a rebound. The second week of the swing will come against the Twins and the Seattle Mariners. I'll talk about those series later in the week.
Thursday, April 18, 2019
A Realistic View Of The AL East
The title might be more of a reach as biases will surely crop up here. The one thing that is realistic is that the American League East is nowhere near where anyone expected it to be. The Tampa Bay Rays have jumped the season and its AL East rivals to build a quick five-and-a-half-game lead on the second place New York Yankees and an eight-and-a-half-game lead on the last place Boston Red Sox. How many people saw that coming?
The Yankees' rough start can be (in part) attributed to injuries. No team in baseball has a longer list of disabled players (I will never use the newfangled IL thing, so sue me). The bullpen has not been as much of a strength as expected. Who knows what having a healthy Dellin Betances available at the start of the season would have meant for the Yankees. The offense has been spotty with too many regulars missing and 4-A players getting too many at bats. Then there is the Red Sox.
The Red Sox have started the season in a real funk. Is it a World Series hangover? Did the long post-season take too much out of the starting pitchers? They have some holes, particularly at second, third and behind the plate. Expecting Dustin Pedroia to be able to come back was a pipe dream and now the Red Sox are stuck with an over-the-hill Eduardo Nunez who is terrible in the field and Brock Holt who seems unlikely to repeat last year's career year.
And, finally, there are the Bay Rays who never seem to lose in a similar way the Red Sox never seemed to lose last year. The Rays were projected as a 90-win team and, frankly, I thought that was high. The projection has now shifted to 94 wins and a division title. A lot has gone right for them so far. They lead the Majors in hard hit balls and their offensive OPS is terrific. Pitching was expected to be good, but it has been REALLY good as has the bullpen. Add to all these things the Rays' defense and you have a winning formula.
But let's be realistic here for a moment and try to remain as unbiased as possible. I do not care what the numbers are saying (run differential, offense, pitching), the Bay Rays are not this good of a team. Heck, I'll eat those words if I am wrong, but I do not think I am. Why exactly?
First, look at the early schedule thus far. Yes, they opened the season with the Houston Astros and beat them three out of four. The Astros were not themselves those first four games. The Astros started the season with a slumbering offense. That offense has since woken up and they are playing dominating baseball again. If the Rays were to play THESE Astros, the results would be far different.
After the Astros, the Bay Rays have faced the dregs of the dregs of baseball teams. The Rockies are a bad baseball team. Then they played the Giants, another bad baseball team. Those two teams are going to spar for last place in the NL West. Then they played the White Sox, another team that is not going anywhere. Then, to bring us up to date, the Rays have played five games against the Blue Jays and the Orioles. To recap, they had two series against the worst two teams in the NL West, a series against an also-ran in the AL Central and the two worst teams in the AL East.
The Rays' schedule stays somewhat soft until June. They do have two series against the Red Sox coming up, but those games are sandwiched around two series against the Royals. The other thing to look at is who the Rays are winning with on their roster. Their offense consists of a bunch of guys who they assembled and it has all miraculously worked. Ji-Man Choi? Brandon Lowe? Yandy Diaz? Austin Meadows? These guys have no track records. Are they this good? All of them? We'll see.
Plus, the only serious injury thus far is to Joey Wendle, last years ROY candidate. Ian Snell broke his toe, but he'll only miss one start. The Rays have zero depth. If anything happens to any of its players, they do not have replacements. The return to form of Kevin Kiermeier has been great and Tommy Pham was a good pickup as he has been an on-base machine.
I believe the Rays' pitching will hold up. But I do not believe in this offense over the long season. I still think that after all is said and done, they will be a 90-win team. That is good. Will it be better than the Red Sox and the Yankees?
Let's start with the Red Sox. Chris Sale will be better than he has started. He has been too good for too long to think otherwise. David Price will be fine. Nathan Eovaldi showed good signs last night of getting back to last year's form. The big question marks in the rotation are Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez. Porcello has had a very odd career where he has gone from Cy Young to terrible and back and forth. If this is another of those stinker years for him, that will hurt. Rodriguez still hasn't proved he can take his "stuff" to a winning level.
The offense will not be as good as last year, but it will be better than it is now. Mookie Betts is too talented not to think this is just a slow start. Andrew Benintendi is very good. Xander Bogaerts and Mitch Moreland will contribute meaningfully. JD Martinez is one of the best hitters in the game. The offense will be fine despite a black hole at catcher and at second. Rafael Devers is still only 22-years-old so who knows what he will be. Somehow, the Red Sox will find a second baseman and this offense will be fine.
Can they win 90 games? Yes, sure--even if it does not seem likely at the moment.
And then, there is the Yankees. Realistically, Aaron Judge has not gotten going yet. The jury is still out on Luke Voit long term. Gleyber Torres has been effective but can be so much better. Clint Frazier has found it. DJ LeMahieu has been a great pickup. Giancarlo Stanton will come back as will Gary Sanchez and the ball will start flying around the park again.
The Yankee bullpen will be fine even if Betances does not get back any time soon. Joe Harvey has been a nice find. It would do the bullpen good if CC Sabathia was treated as a five-inning "Opener" with Luis Cessa designated as his caddy (or Gio Gonzalez if they choose to go that route). The Rotation is not killer, but it is good depending on how well Domingo German can hang in there.
The bottom line? Can the Yankees win 90 games? Sure they can. Will they? I still think they will. The injuries sucked off several games of the team's original projection, but you would think things will have to improve on that front eventually.
The Bay Rays are not as good as they have appeared. The Yankees are not as mediocre and the Red Sox are not this bad. Injuries to the Yankees and the bad start by the Red Sox have guaranteed a three team race. But that is what it will be in the end. The Rays are not running away with the division, not in my humble opinion. But talk to me again in July and my perspective might be different.
The Yankees' rough start can be (in part) attributed to injuries. No team in baseball has a longer list of disabled players (I will never use the newfangled IL thing, so sue me). The bullpen has not been as much of a strength as expected. Who knows what having a healthy Dellin Betances available at the start of the season would have meant for the Yankees. The offense has been spotty with too many regulars missing and 4-A players getting too many at bats. Then there is the Red Sox.
The Red Sox have started the season in a real funk. Is it a World Series hangover? Did the long post-season take too much out of the starting pitchers? They have some holes, particularly at second, third and behind the plate. Expecting Dustin Pedroia to be able to come back was a pipe dream and now the Red Sox are stuck with an over-the-hill Eduardo Nunez who is terrible in the field and Brock Holt who seems unlikely to repeat last year's career year.
And, finally, there are the Bay Rays who never seem to lose in a similar way the Red Sox never seemed to lose last year. The Rays were projected as a 90-win team and, frankly, I thought that was high. The projection has now shifted to 94 wins and a division title. A lot has gone right for them so far. They lead the Majors in hard hit balls and their offensive OPS is terrific. Pitching was expected to be good, but it has been REALLY good as has the bullpen. Add to all these things the Rays' defense and you have a winning formula.
But let's be realistic here for a moment and try to remain as unbiased as possible. I do not care what the numbers are saying (run differential, offense, pitching), the Bay Rays are not this good of a team. Heck, I'll eat those words if I am wrong, but I do not think I am. Why exactly?
First, look at the early schedule thus far. Yes, they opened the season with the Houston Astros and beat them three out of four. The Astros were not themselves those first four games. The Astros started the season with a slumbering offense. That offense has since woken up and they are playing dominating baseball again. If the Rays were to play THESE Astros, the results would be far different.
After the Astros, the Bay Rays have faced the dregs of the dregs of baseball teams. The Rockies are a bad baseball team. Then they played the Giants, another bad baseball team. Those two teams are going to spar for last place in the NL West. Then they played the White Sox, another team that is not going anywhere. Then, to bring us up to date, the Rays have played five games against the Blue Jays and the Orioles. To recap, they had two series against the worst two teams in the NL West, a series against an also-ran in the AL Central and the two worst teams in the AL East.
The Rays' schedule stays somewhat soft until June. They do have two series against the Red Sox coming up, but those games are sandwiched around two series against the Royals. The other thing to look at is who the Rays are winning with on their roster. Their offense consists of a bunch of guys who they assembled and it has all miraculously worked. Ji-Man Choi? Brandon Lowe? Yandy Diaz? Austin Meadows? These guys have no track records. Are they this good? All of them? We'll see.
Plus, the only serious injury thus far is to Joey Wendle, last years ROY candidate. Ian Snell broke his toe, but he'll only miss one start. The Rays have zero depth. If anything happens to any of its players, they do not have replacements. The return to form of Kevin Kiermeier has been great and Tommy Pham was a good pickup as he has been an on-base machine.
I believe the Rays' pitching will hold up. But I do not believe in this offense over the long season. I still think that after all is said and done, they will be a 90-win team. That is good. Will it be better than the Red Sox and the Yankees?
Let's start with the Red Sox. Chris Sale will be better than he has started. He has been too good for too long to think otherwise. David Price will be fine. Nathan Eovaldi showed good signs last night of getting back to last year's form. The big question marks in the rotation are Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez. Porcello has had a very odd career where he has gone from Cy Young to terrible and back and forth. If this is another of those stinker years for him, that will hurt. Rodriguez still hasn't proved he can take his "stuff" to a winning level.
The offense will not be as good as last year, but it will be better than it is now. Mookie Betts is too talented not to think this is just a slow start. Andrew Benintendi is very good. Xander Bogaerts and Mitch Moreland will contribute meaningfully. JD Martinez is one of the best hitters in the game. The offense will be fine despite a black hole at catcher and at second. Rafael Devers is still only 22-years-old so who knows what he will be. Somehow, the Red Sox will find a second baseman and this offense will be fine.
Can they win 90 games? Yes, sure--even if it does not seem likely at the moment.
And then, there is the Yankees. Realistically, Aaron Judge has not gotten going yet. The jury is still out on Luke Voit long term. Gleyber Torres has been effective but can be so much better. Clint Frazier has found it. DJ LeMahieu has been a great pickup. Giancarlo Stanton will come back as will Gary Sanchez and the ball will start flying around the park again.
The Yankee bullpen will be fine even if Betances does not get back any time soon. Joe Harvey has been a nice find. It would do the bullpen good if CC Sabathia was treated as a five-inning "Opener" with Luis Cessa designated as his caddy (or Gio Gonzalez if they choose to go that route). The Rotation is not killer, but it is good depending on how well Domingo German can hang in there.
The bottom line? Can the Yankees win 90 games? Sure they can. Will they? I still think they will. The injuries sucked off several games of the team's original projection, but you would think things will have to improve on that front eventually.
The Bay Rays are not as good as they have appeared. The Yankees are not as mediocre and the Red Sox are not this bad. Injuries to the Yankees and the bad start by the Red Sox have guaranteed a three team race. But that is what it will be in the end. The Rays are not running away with the division, not in my humble opinion. But talk to me again in July and my perspective might be different.
Wednesday, April 17, 2019
A Cat Has Nine Lives - A Bird Is Not A Cat
I wrote during Spring Training about the need to resist hope about Greg Bird finally becoming the player Brian Cashman has kept saying he was going to be. Greg Bird had a great spring for the New York Yankees. There was a lot of talk from manager, Aaron Boone, and Cashman about Bird making a significant contribution to the Yankees. After yet another dismal start to Bird's season and his .555 OPS along with his failure to scoop up throws at first base, we now learn that Bird has a left plantar fascia tear and is out indefinitely. I have not been this shocked at either development since the days of Nick Johnson.
And really, that is a solid knock on Nick Johnson. Yes, Johnson had injury after injury and his career was never what it should have been. Johnson's one full season for the Nationals showed what a healthy Johnson could have been like. So, yes, Nick Johnson was a constant disappointment. But at least he produced at times when he was available. Except for Greg Bird's first 178 Plate Appearances for the Yankees in 2015, Greg Bird's production has been a black hole with scorched earth.
Sometimes I feel badly about writing such a piece. Greg Bird seems like a nice guy. He seems earnest and nice and it is not his fault that his legs have been a mine field since that 2015 season. And I am quite sure he was trying his hardest to perform better on the field than he has. Unfortunately, baseball is a business and it is about what you have produced lately and what you can be expected to produce in the future. And four years of history has shown us that he has about as much chance of being a "significant contributor" at some point for the Yankees as Jacoby Ellsbury.
It is time for the Yankees to cut the cord on Greg Bird just like they did with Nick Johnson years ago. The injury is unfortunate. The body of work, though, does not lie. And his spring did not fool any of the smart folks who put together evaluations and projections. A .710 OPS was the highest projection he received. That is not anywhere close to what you want from a first baseman, especially a first baseman that is not very good at defending that position.
Bird's injury piles on to the Yankees' physical misfortunes thus far. But his injury is the least significant. That says something right there. Ben Heller on the DL hurts more right now than Greg Bird.
So what should the Yankees do when Greg Bird returns? That might not be a question that can even be answered right now. This particular injury is a terrible injury that could possibly end his season. He is listed on the injury report as, "No timetable for recovery."
If I were running the Yankees, I would totally and unequivocally dismiss Greg Bird from any future plans. If he comes back this year, he should either stay in the minors or be traded. Or he could be released. In some ways, Greg Bird has held first base hostage for the Yankees since Mark Teixeira's retirement and that should end immediately.
For the Yankees, it is an addiction that should be quit cold turkey. They have held onto, hoped and wrung hands that Greg Bird would take his sweet swing and become a star with the Yankees. It is not going to happen. Enough is enough and it is time to move on. I am still not convinced that Luke Voit is the answer. We will see how his season goes. Come on down, Mike Ford, whatcha got?
Personally, this Greg Bird addiction led against looking at a guy like Mike Moustakas, who has been killing the ball for the Brewers. For basically chump change, Moustakas could have stepped in at third when Miguel Andujar went down or he could have played first. Maybe Moustakas was not the answer. But something creative has to be done about the future of first base for the Yankees. Heck, Giancarlo Stanton would be a big target over there. I still think Stanton is a better player when he is not the designated hitter.
Nice guy or no, earnest or not, a Bird is not a cat. There is not nine lives and Greg Bird's Yankee lives are burned up. It is time to move on or at least let him try to move on someplace else.
And really, that is a solid knock on Nick Johnson. Yes, Johnson had injury after injury and his career was never what it should have been. Johnson's one full season for the Nationals showed what a healthy Johnson could have been like. So, yes, Nick Johnson was a constant disappointment. But at least he produced at times when he was available. Except for Greg Bird's first 178 Plate Appearances for the Yankees in 2015, Greg Bird's production has been a black hole with scorched earth.
Sometimes I feel badly about writing such a piece. Greg Bird seems like a nice guy. He seems earnest and nice and it is not his fault that his legs have been a mine field since that 2015 season. And I am quite sure he was trying his hardest to perform better on the field than he has. Unfortunately, baseball is a business and it is about what you have produced lately and what you can be expected to produce in the future. And four years of history has shown us that he has about as much chance of being a "significant contributor" at some point for the Yankees as Jacoby Ellsbury.
It is time for the Yankees to cut the cord on Greg Bird just like they did with Nick Johnson years ago. The injury is unfortunate. The body of work, though, does not lie. And his spring did not fool any of the smart folks who put together evaluations and projections. A .710 OPS was the highest projection he received. That is not anywhere close to what you want from a first baseman, especially a first baseman that is not very good at defending that position.
Bird's injury piles on to the Yankees' physical misfortunes thus far. But his injury is the least significant. That says something right there. Ben Heller on the DL hurts more right now than Greg Bird.
So what should the Yankees do when Greg Bird returns? That might not be a question that can even be answered right now. This particular injury is a terrible injury that could possibly end his season. He is listed on the injury report as, "No timetable for recovery."
If I were running the Yankees, I would totally and unequivocally dismiss Greg Bird from any future plans. If he comes back this year, he should either stay in the minors or be traded. Or he could be released. In some ways, Greg Bird has held first base hostage for the Yankees since Mark Teixeira's retirement and that should end immediately.
For the Yankees, it is an addiction that should be quit cold turkey. They have held onto, hoped and wrung hands that Greg Bird would take his sweet swing and become a star with the Yankees. It is not going to happen. Enough is enough and it is time to move on. I am still not convinced that Luke Voit is the answer. We will see how his season goes. Come on down, Mike Ford, whatcha got?
Personally, this Greg Bird addiction led against looking at a guy like Mike Moustakas, who has been killing the ball for the Brewers. For basically chump change, Moustakas could have stepped in at third when Miguel Andujar went down or he could have played first. Maybe Moustakas was not the answer. But something creative has to be done about the future of first base for the Yankees. Heck, Giancarlo Stanton would be a big target over there. I still think Stanton is a better player when he is not the designated hitter.
Nice guy or no, earnest or not, a Bird is not a cat. There is not nine lives and Greg Bird's Yankee lives are burned up. It is time to move on or at least let him try to move on someplace else.
Tuesday, April 09, 2019
Unbelievable Facts About Chris Davis
Chris Davis, the much-maligned, obscenely-paid first-baseman for the Baltimore Orioles established a record for batting futility that may never be reached again. Nobody has ever gone as many at bats in a row without a single base hit as Chris Davis has from the end of the 2018 season to today. The record is his alone and is the benchmark for putrid batting forever. But Davis' failure to hit is not a recent phenomenon. It actually goes back to the last month of the 2017 season. And the numbers are unfathomable.
I cannot grapple with my feelings about Chris Davis. A large part of me feels like I am piling on. Failure is no fun for anyone. At the same time, Davis is rich beyond his wildest dreams and will continue adding to that pile for years to come. I do not know. I guess mostly I feel badly for him.
The real problem for Chris Davis started in the last month of the 2017 season. His numbers were not great for the years 2014, 2016 and most of 2017. His batting average and strikeout rates were terrible. But his OPS+ hovered around league average for those years because of his walk rate and the decent power numbers. But then you get to the last month of 2017.
In that month, Chris Davis came to the plate a hundred times and he had 88 official at bats. He only had 14 hits and struck out 40 times. That works out to a .159 batting average, a .260 OBP and since he only had 29 Total Bases in 26 games, that worked out to a .330 Slugging Percentage. That gave him a .590 OPS for the month. Things have never improved since.
In 2018, Davis had arguably the worst batting season of all time. In 522 Plate Appearances and 470 At Bats, all Davis could muster was 79 hits and 41 walks. His season's batting average was .168. His On Base Percentage was .243 and his Slugging Percentage was a puny .296. His OPS of .539 was good for an OPS+ of 50 (100 is average) and rated a 46 in wRC+.
Let's add together the last month of 2017, all of 2018 and his zero for 28 start (with four walks) for 2019. That gives us a line of: 654 (PA), 586 (AB), 48 Runs, 93 Hits, 15 doubles, 20 homers, 59 RBI, 56 walks, 6 HBP and 247 strikeouts. What does that all add up to? A .159 Batting Average, a .237 On Base Percentage and a Slugging Percentage of .287. His OPS for all of that would then equal .524. Wowzers! His strikeout rate would be 38%. Consider that his 247 strikeouts far outpaced his combined total of hits and walks by 98!
It gets worse the more you look at it. In 2018, Chris Davis had a .327 OPS in games considered Late and Close. That is lower than many batters' On Base Percentage! His OPS was .399 in what were considered High Leverage situations. He had a .484 OPS facing "Ground Ball Pitchers." His OPS against "Power Pitchers" was .463. His OPS against pitchers with an average fastball was .485. He had a .493 OPS against left-handed pitchers.
These are all bizarre numbers! Here is another one for you: Since 1867, Chris Davis' -2.8 rWAR was tied for the eighth worst baseball-reference.com WAR season total ever. Fangraphs.com came in with a -3.1 fWAR which would have ranked Davis' 2018 as the fourth worst all time. Chris Davis' 127 times on base last season was tied for the sixteenth lowest all time for a player with over 500 plate appearances. And it was the worst since Todd Cruz in 1982 playing for the Mariners. And his .168 Batting Average of a year ago is the worst all time for a player with over 500 Plate Appearances.
Those are all numbers for the 2018 season. He has big fat zeroes for 2019. So stretching back to the last month of the 2017 season, no one has batted lower than Chris Davis...ever!
And, I can guarantee you that none of the players worse than Davis in WAR in a single season ever made $23 million for doing so.
What would you do if you were the Baltimore Orioles. The team cannot keep running him out there, can they? The money is a wash. It is bye bye. There is no way they will get any value from the deal. And the deal runs three more years after this one! The Orioles should simply cut their losses. It is totally embarrassing for a team to have a national television cut in to see if Davis would break the futility record. And the networks got their money's worth. Chris Davis needs to be put out of his misery and the fans need to have closure on this legendary saga of batting garbage dumpage.
I cannot grapple with my feelings about Chris Davis. A large part of me feels like I am piling on. Failure is no fun for anyone. At the same time, Davis is rich beyond his wildest dreams and will continue adding to that pile for years to come. I do not know. I guess mostly I feel badly for him.
The real problem for Chris Davis started in the last month of the 2017 season. His numbers were not great for the years 2014, 2016 and most of 2017. His batting average and strikeout rates were terrible. But his OPS+ hovered around league average for those years because of his walk rate and the decent power numbers. But then you get to the last month of 2017.
In that month, Chris Davis came to the plate a hundred times and he had 88 official at bats. He only had 14 hits and struck out 40 times. That works out to a .159 batting average, a .260 OBP and since he only had 29 Total Bases in 26 games, that worked out to a .330 Slugging Percentage. That gave him a .590 OPS for the month. Things have never improved since.
In 2018, Davis had arguably the worst batting season of all time. In 522 Plate Appearances and 470 At Bats, all Davis could muster was 79 hits and 41 walks. His season's batting average was .168. His On Base Percentage was .243 and his Slugging Percentage was a puny .296. His OPS of .539 was good for an OPS+ of 50 (100 is average) and rated a 46 in wRC+.
Let's add together the last month of 2017, all of 2018 and his zero for 28 start (with four walks) for 2019. That gives us a line of: 654 (PA), 586 (AB), 48 Runs, 93 Hits, 15 doubles, 20 homers, 59 RBI, 56 walks, 6 HBP and 247 strikeouts. What does that all add up to? A .159 Batting Average, a .237 On Base Percentage and a Slugging Percentage of .287. His OPS for all of that would then equal .524. Wowzers! His strikeout rate would be 38%. Consider that his 247 strikeouts far outpaced his combined total of hits and walks by 98!
It gets worse the more you look at it. In 2018, Chris Davis had a .327 OPS in games considered Late and Close. That is lower than many batters' On Base Percentage! His OPS was .399 in what were considered High Leverage situations. He had a .484 OPS facing "Ground Ball Pitchers." His OPS against "Power Pitchers" was .463. His OPS against pitchers with an average fastball was .485. He had a .493 OPS against left-handed pitchers.
These are all bizarre numbers! Here is another one for you: Since 1867, Chris Davis' -2.8 rWAR was tied for the eighth worst baseball-reference.com WAR season total ever. Fangraphs.com came in with a -3.1 fWAR which would have ranked Davis' 2018 as the fourth worst all time. Chris Davis' 127 times on base last season was tied for the sixteenth lowest all time for a player with over 500 plate appearances. And it was the worst since Todd Cruz in 1982 playing for the Mariners. And his .168 Batting Average of a year ago is the worst all time for a player with over 500 Plate Appearances.
Those are all numbers for the 2018 season. He has big fat zeroes for 2019. So stretching back to the last month of the 2017 season, no one has batted lower than Chris Davis...ever!
And, I can guarantee you that none of the players worse than Davis in WAR in a single season ever made $23 million for doing so.
What would you do if you were the Baltimore Orioles. The team cannot keep running him out there, can they? The money is a wash. It is bye bye. There is no way they will get any value from the deal. And the deal runs three more years after this one! The Orioles should simply cut their losses. It is totally embarrassing for a team to have a national television cut in to see if Davis would break the futility record. And the networks got their money's worth. Chris Davis needs to be put out of his misery and the fans need to have closure on this legendary saga of batting garbage dumpage.
Monday, April 08, 2019
Thoughts After Six-percent Of The Yankees Season
The New York Yankees have played nine games of their 162-game season. To put any kind of emphasis on trends so far would be pushing the short sample size mantra to a throbbing level. Can anything be gained from such an early look at how things are going? With ten players on the disabled list (take that!) and three series against teams headed for "also-ran" status, it would seem even more absurd to take any pulse thoughts at this early point. For the sake of an exercise (and because I felt like writing), let's take a look at the Yankees after six-percent of their season has been completed. Take it all with a grain of salt.
After watching Aaron Judge all spring, I really thought he would put up a better strikeout rate this season. I have been disappointed that he is striking out at prodigious rates and at 38%, his strikeout rate so far is the highest it has been since his 2016 cup of coffee season.
Gary Sanchez does appear to be back as an offensive force with a bat in his hands. After his pathetic showing of a year ago, that is welcome news. However, he does still have his penchant for driving fans crazy with bonehead plays. Getting picked off third with the bases loaded and no out is forgotten by a barrage of homers. But it was the second day in a row of getting picked off. The catcher looks better at blocking pitches behind the plate and is socking the ball. But, man, give us a week of smarts too please.
If you ignore his walk rate, Domingo German is doing a pretty good Luis Severino impression right now. The key will be how that translates to better clubs than the Tigers and Orioles.
For the first time ever, I do not seem to mind that Luis Cessa is on the roster. It feels weird.
I have a strong feeling that Aaron Hicks is the next Jacoby Ellsbury without the MVP season on his resume. The guy just cannot stay on the field. And after watching what a bad back did to Don Mattingly and David Wright, I am not optimistic at all.
Good or bad, Luke Voit is fun to watch. The guy is the "Everyman" on the Yankees who wears everything on his sleeve. I do hope he picks up the pace though!
Who would have thought the Boston Red Sox would have such a start after last season? And who would have thought that the Red Sox' rotation looks terrible and the bullpen looks great? But...:::pinch:::...it is only after the first three series of the season.
I predicted Gleyber Torres to have a great season and he is making me look good so far! Love that kid.
Thus far, the signs are pointing in favor of me falling in like with DJ LeMahieu. Gio Urshela is growing on me too.
How can you not smile for Clint Frazier? If Mike Tauchman starts another game, I might have to get an Aaron Boone voodoo doll. I'm just kidding! I would never wish harm or threaten harm on anyone! Whew! One has to be so careful about what is said these days.
The Yankees really need Dellin Betances. The bullpen is obviously one body short right now. Most of the bullpen regulars are getting the job done, but we are missing that guy to come in and blow people away. Plus, his absence forces Jonathan Holder to pitch multiple innings and he should be limited to one. I hope this late start doesn't mean no extension and walking papers for Betances after the season.
I cannot help it. A little part of me dies inside when Austin Romine starts a game. I cannot help it! I long for the Cervelli days...
Speaking of Jonathans, Jonathan Loaisiga is in the same mold as Severino and German, but cannot locate his fastball. If he could get a clue where it was going occasionally, he will be a terrific pitcher.
I have been thinking about Sonny Gray's complaint about being forced to throw sliders with the Yankees. I think he may have a point. Are there any Yankees pitchers that do not feature a slider? Tampa Bay for years preached the change up. The Yankees under Larry Rothschild, seem to preach the slider. Just something to keep an eye on.
I hope J A Happ's first two starts do not mean that he is an aging pitcher with his best years behind him. He has not looked great at all.
The first nine games have shown that Zack Britton is not yet all the way back from where he was. Maybe he'll never be that guy again. I think the Yankees are better off with him, but if he could put some command together, it would make the world of difference for the bullpen.
Speaking of bullpens, yes, it is early yet, but the Yankees' mercenary refusal to engage David Robertson looks like the right call so far. He was brilliant for the Yankees in 2017, but much less so last year. Chad Green looks like the new Robertson except that Green does not walk anybody.
As much as people love him, I still insist that Brett Gardner is over-the-hill now and should only be a reserve. The occasional walk and his long at bats are nice, but the reality is that both Greg Bird and Luke Voit have better OPS figures than Gardner. And those two are considered to be struggling! I would point out that Bird's current OPS is right where PECOTA pegged him to be.
I am not worried about James Paxton. He looks terrific.
The Yankees did not maximize their opportunity for a strong start against two bad teams to start the season. They need to hold their own against the Astros in Houston for three games and then have a great home stretch against good and bad teams before having to endure a West Coast swing. Nine games does not mean a whole lot. But currently sitting 5-4 feels a lot better than sitting 2-4 did. Onward!
After watching Aaron Judge all spring, I really thought he would put up a better strikeout rate this season. I have been disappointed that he is striking out at prodigious rates and at 38%, his strikeout rate so far is the highest it has been since his 2016 cup of coffee season.
Gary Sanchez does appear to be back as an offensive force with a bat in his hands. After his pathetic showing of a year ago, that is welcome news. However, he does still have his penchant for driving fans crazy with bonehead plays. Getting picked off third with the bases loaded and no out is forgotten by a barrage of homers. But it was the second day in a row of getting picked off. The catcher looks better at blocking pitches behind the plate and is socking the ball. But, man, give us a week of smarts too please.
If you ignore his walk rate, Domingo German is doing a pretty good Luis Severino impression right now. The key will be how that translates to better clubs than the Tigers and Orioles.
For the first time ever, I do not seem to mind that Luis Cessa is on the roster. It feels weird.
I have a strong feeling that Aaron Hicks is the next Jacoby Ellsbury without the MVP season on his resume. The guy just cannot stay on the field. And after watching what a bad back did to Don Mattingly and David Wright, I am not optimistic at all.
Good or bad, Luke Voit is fun to watch. The guy is the "Everyman" on the Yankees who wears everything on his sleeve. I do hope he picks up the pace though!
Who would have thought the Boston Red Sox would have such a start after last season? And who would have thought that the Red Sox' rotation looks terrible and the bullpen looks great? But...:::pinch:::...it is only after the first three series of the season.
I predicted Gleyber Torres to have a great season and he is making me look good so far! Love that kid.
Thus far, the signs are pointing in favor of me falling in like with DJ LeMahieu. Gio Urshela is growing on me too.
How can you not smile for Clint Frazier? If Mike Tauchman starts another game, I might have to get an Aaron Boone voodoo doll. I'm just kidding! I would never wish harm or threaten harm on anyone! Whew! One has to be so careful about what is said these days.
The Yankees really need Dellin Betances. The bullpen is obviously one body short right now. Most of the bullpen regulars are getting the job done, but we are missing that guy to come in and blow people away. Plus, his absence forces Jonathan Holder to pitch multiple innings and he should be limited to one. I hope this late start doesn't mean no extension and walking papers for Betances after the season.
I cannot help it. A little part of me dies inside when Austin Romine starts a game. I cannot help it! I long for the Cervelli days...
Speaking of Jonathans, Jonathan Loaisiga is in the same mold as Severino and German, but cannot locate his fastball. If he could get a clue where it was going occasionally, he will be a terrific pitcher.
I have been thinking about Sonny Gray's complaint about being forced to throw sliders with the Yankees. I think he may have a point. Are there any Yankees pitchers that do not feature a slider? Tampa Bay for years preached the change up. The Yankees under Larry Rothschild, seem to preach the slider. Just something to keep an eye on.
I hope J A Happ's first two starts do not mean that he is an aging pitcher with his best years behind him. He has not looked great at all.
The first nine games have shown that Zack Britton is not yet all the way back from where he was. Maybe he'll never be that guy again. I think the Yankees are better off with him, but if he could put some command together, it would make the world of difference for the bullpen.
Speaking of bullpens, yes, it is early yet, but the Yankees' mercenary refusal to engage David Robertson looks like the right call so far. He was brilliant for the Yankees in 2017, but much less so last year. Chad Green looks like the new Robertson except that Green does not walk anybody.
As much as people love him, I still insist that Brett Gardner is over-the-hill now and should only be a reserve. The occasional walk and his long at bats are nice, but the reality is that both Greg Bird and Luke Voit have better OPS figures than Gardner. And those two are considered to be struggling! I would point out that Bird's current OPS is right where PECOTA pegged him to be.
I am not worried about James Paxton. He looks terrific.
The Yankees did not maximize their opportunity for a strong start against two bad teams to start the season. They need to hold their own against the Astros in Houston for three games and then have a great home stretch against good and bad teams before having to endure a West Coast swing. Nine games does not mean a whole lot. But currently sitting 5-4 feels a lot better than sitting 2-4 did. Onward!
Tuesday, April 02, 2019
Good Thing The Yankees Can Afford To Give Away Games
Perhaps I should not write this post right now. I should probably wait until I cool off. But I am just so angry I cannot contain myself. I am not a journalist. I don't have to be fair or partial. This is my page. So here it is. Why am I so angry? I am angry because the Yankee manager (probably on orders from above) is all about resting players. And so on any given night, the Yankees can decide that the strategy of resting players is more important than winning the game. I am thrilled that the Yankees are SO confident that they think they afford to throw away games to follow their resting strategy.
The Yankees just lost two key players yesterday. Both were cogs in their powerful lineup. So without Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar, the team is already without two of its best hitters. Gary Sanchez has hit homers the last two games. There has already been one day off this season in between the four games Sanchez has played. Well, the Yankees can afford to give games away, so you might as well rest Gary Sanchez. Right? After all, the stat people calling the shots say that resting players will boost their value output over time.
There is only one problem though. A loss in the standings does not overcome a Win or a percentage of a Win in WAR later on. That L in the loss column is never going to go away.
But Sanchez was not the only one. Greg Bird, who supposedly is a "different" hitter this year, was "rested" as was Troy Tulowitzki. Instead, Tyler Wade, Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman got to play. Until proven otherwise, they are Triple-A or even Four-A batters. . And, of course, we cannot forget to combine them with Austin Romine.
So you take a team like the Detroit Tigers, a team that will most likely lose 90+ games this season. And you field a lineup that makes you very similar to the Tigers on the field. Nice. Good move. What a joke.
And then you have the bottom of the ninth and you are trailing, 3-1, because your lineup cannot produce anything with those players and with only one chance left in the game, you let both Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman bat!? Incredible.
The goal of analytics should be to make sure your team has the best chance to win. If the decisions are counter-productive to that goal, then there is a problem. Rest a player once in a while. Personally, I do not think it is necessary. But please, for gosh sakes, do not rest them all at the same freakin' time! Despite what your logic tells you, the Yankees are never going to get this loss back.
The Yankees just lost two key players yesterday. Both were cogs in their powerful lineup. So without Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar, the team is already without two of its best hitters. Gary Sanchez has hit homers the last two games. There has already been one day off this season in between the four games Sanchez has played. Well, the Yankees can afford to give games away, so you might as well rest Gary Sanchez. Right? After all, the stat people calling the shots say that resting players will boost their value output over time.
There is only one problem though. A loss in the standings does not overcome a Win or a percentage of a Win in WAR later on. That L in the loss column is never going to go away.
But Sanchez was not the only one. Greg Bird, who supposedly is a "different" hitter this year, was "rested" as was Troy Tulowitzki. Instead, Tyler Wade, Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman got to play. Until proven otherwise, they are Triple-A or even Four-A batters. . And, of course, we cannot forget to combine them with Austin Romine.
So you take a team like the Detroit Tigers, a team that will most likely lose 90+ games this season. And you field a lineup that makes you very similar to the Tigers on the field. Nice. Good move. What a joke.
And then you have the bottom of the ninth and you are trailing, 3-1, because your lineup cannot produce anything with those players and with only one chance left in the game, you let both Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman bat!? Incredible.
The goal of analytics should be to make sure your team has the best chance to win. If the decisions are counter-productive to that goal, then there is a problem. Rest a player once in a while. Personally, I do not think it is necessary. But please, for gosh sakes, do not rest them all at the same freakin' time! Despite what your logic tells you, the Yankees are never going to get this loss back.
The Yankees Best Laid Schemes...Go Awry
The title of this series of thoughts paraphrases the great poet, Robert Burns, whose words of 1785 still ring true today. Yankee fans had salivating thoughts coming into this season. The team was loaded with talent. The lineup was stacked. The pitching was led by an ace and a free agent brought in with the stuff of an ace. The rest of the rotation seemed solid. Many pundits and predictors positioned the Yankees as the team to beat. This was going to be fun! Wee! But then it started crumbling.
And it started fast. First there was the pitching ace, Luis Severino, who felt something pop in his shoulder before his first spring start. Then there was Aaron Hicks with a funky back. We should have all seen that coming. Hicks has had problems staying on the field his entire career. Is he another Jacoby Ellsbury?
Then the team lost Dellin Betances and that boom-boom-boom-boom bullpen lost a boom. CC Sabathia was always going to be a late start, so that was no surprise. Then the season started and the losses have mounted. Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar went on the disabled list on the same day! The latter might be looking at a season-ending surgery.
Combine it with the TJ surgery for Didi Gregorius and top-pitching prospect, Jordan Montgomery, and the Yankees currently have nine players on the disabled list. And no, I will never call it the Injured List. It has been the Disabled List for generations and Disabled List is what I will write. Sheesh.
So here we are four games into the season and a lot of the wind has already left the sails. One wonders about training in Florida in the warmth and then having to play in the bitter cold of New York City. Would Stanton and Andujar's injuries happen if this scenario had not happened? It is hard playing baseball in the cold. It is akin to playing golf in the cold. The swing is not free and easy. You are wearing layers instead of having free motion. Maybe the season IS too long and expecting teams to play in 36 degree weather is asking too much.
All these players could return and play a significant factor this season. But what if some do not? What if Severino never gets right without surgery? What if Andujar needs surgery and needs to miss the season? Nobody is going to weep for the Yankees or the team's fans. But, man, this is not how we all envisioned it.
If you look back to the most recent championship seasons for the Yankees (2009, 2000, 1999, 1998), you see teams with limited injury situations. Particularly with the starting pitching, the Yankees received 29 or more starts from at least four of its starters in every one of those seasons. The most a position player was lost to the team was typically for 20-25 games. But there were no major losses of talent that drained its fans of all color.
Did you watch the game last night? When Gleyber Torres came up flexing his thumb after whiffing on Gary Sanchez's throw, did you not expect the worse? I know I did. How much do you want to bet that he will be "resting" in tonight's game? By the way, that should have been his error and not Sanchez's. The throw was there and the runner should have been out. Sanchez has made some errant throws but that was not one of them and Sanchez looks MUCH improved on blocking balls in the dirt.
Well...our dreams of a dream season with a homer record and All-Stars at nearly every position have pretty much been dampened. But this team is not done. The Red Sox look considerably weaker as a team and Tampa Bay is not this good. If a couple of the replacements for injured players play well, the team can get through this early part of the season. It is too early to lose all hope.
It is just sad when things do not work out as hoped and players do not get the chance to shine as expected. Warm weather will come and some of the wounded will come staggering back. We will all just have to see how it goes.
***************************************************************
I should not be as negative about Greg Bird as I am. So I apologize right up front. But I remember watching the first game against the Tigers and Brett Gardner was on first and Bird was at the plate. Gardner stole second and I remember thinking, "That was a mistake," because it put Gardner in scoring position with Bird at the plate. It also freed the pitcher from really having to worry about what Gardner was going to do. The predictable happened and Bird looked awful striking out to end the inning. Bird is simply useless with runners in scoring position. Just a small observation in three hours of baseball action.
And it started fast. First there was the pitching ace, Luis Severino, who felt something pop in his shoulder before his first spring start. Then there was Aaron Hicks with a funky back. We should have all seen that coming. Hicks has had problems staying on the field his entire career. Is he another Jacoby Ellsbury?
Then the team lost Dellin Betances and that boom-boom-boom-boom bullpen lost a boom. CC Sabathia was always going to be a late start, so that was no surprise. Then the season started and the losses have mounted. Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar went on the disabled list on the same day! The latter might be looking at a season-ending surgery.
Combine it with the TJ surgery for Didi Gregorius and top-pitching prospect, Jordan Montgomery, and the Yankees currently have nine players on the disabled list. And no, I will never call it the Injured List. It has been the Disabled List for generations and Disabled List is what I will write. Sheesh.
So here we are four games into the season and a lot of the wind has already left the sails. One wonders about training in Florida in the warmth and then having to play in the bitter cold of New York City. Would Stanton and Andujar's injuries happen if this scenario had not happened? It is hard playing baseball in the cold. It is akin to playing golf in the cold. The swing is not free and easy. You are wearing layers instead of having free motion. Maybe the season IS too long and expecting teams to play in 36 degree weather is asking too much.
All these players could return and play a significant factor this season. But what if some do not? What if Severino never gets right without surgery? What if Andujar needs surgery and needs to miss the season? Nobody is going to weep for the Yankees or the team's fans. But, man, this is not how we all envisioned it.
If you look back to the most recent championship seasons for the Yankees (2009, 2000, 1999, 1998), you see teams with limited injury situations. Particularly with the starting pitching, the Yankees received 29 or more starts from at least four of its starters in every one of those seasons. The most a position player was lost to the team was typically for 20-25 games. But there were no major losses of talent that drained its fans of all color.
Did you watch the game last night? When Gleyber Torres came up flexing his thumb after whiffing on Gary Sanchez's throw, did you not expect the worse? I know I did. How much do you want to bet that he will be "resting" in tonight's game? By the way, that should have been his error and not Sanchez's. The throw was there and the runner should have been out. Sanchez has made some errant throws but that was not one of them and Sanchez looks MUCH improved on blocking balls in the dirt.
Well...our dreams of a dream season with a homer record and All-Stars at nearly every position have pretty much been dampened. But this team is not done. The Red Sox look considerably weaker as a team and Tampa Bay is not this good. If a couple of the replacements for injured players play well, the team can get through this early part of the season. It is too early to lose all hope.
It is just sad when things do not work out as hoped and players do not get the chance to shine as expected. Warm weather will come and some of the wounded will come staggering back. We will all just have to see how it goes.
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I should not be as negative about Greg Bird as I am. So I apologize right up front. But I remember watching the first game against the Tigers and Brett Gardner was on first and Bird was at the plate. Gardner stole second and I remember thinking, "That was a mistake," because it put Gardner in scoring position with Bird at the plate. It also freed the pitcher from really having to worry about what Gardner was going to do. The predictable happened and Bird looked awful striking out to end the inning. Bird is simply useless with runners in scoring position. Just a small observation in three hours of baseball action.
Thursday, March 28, 2019
Live Blogging The Yankees 2019 Opening Day
The best day of the baseball season is here. It is Opening Day and The New York Yankees will host the Baltimore Orioles. Mariano Rivera just threw out the first pitch! What can be better than that!? It is Masahiro Tanaka against an Oriole team that lost 114 games a year ago. But that Orioles team gave the Yankees more fits than should have occurred. The Yankees need to feast on teams like this.
And the first pitch from Tanaka! A ball. But two ground outs followed and then a single to right. It took a while for Tanaka to put away Trey Mancini, but Mancini's ground ball to the right hit the runner! When is the last time you saw that! Good sign? We'll take it.
Tanaka looked crisp and sharp and hit 93 on his fastball. He looks good. The Yankees are coming up!
Brett Gardner led off and got blown away by the Orioles starter, Andrew Cashner. One out. Aaron Judge lined a single (108 mph) through the right side! Yeah! Giancarlo Stanton lined a single to right. It was hit hard, but Aaron Judge still took third. Here we go! A 3-1 count on Luke Voit. Boom! Three-run homer to dead center! Wow! Miguel Andujar flew out to the wall in left for the second out. Gary Sanchez singled to right. Greg Bird struck out to end the inning. A great start!
I saw on Twitter that Robinson Cano homered in his first at bat for the Mets. That's cool.
Tanaka got a 1-2-3 strikeout to start the top of the 2nd. Another 1-2-3 strikeout for the second out. But then Chris Davis comes up. I have no idea why Yankee pitchers always get behind on this guy. The odds of him hitting the ball are so low. Davis went 3-0. Tanaka fought back to 3-2 and then struck him out. Super inning! Tanaka looks great. Or the Orioles look awful. You choose.
Gleyber Torres hit the first pitch he saw for a single. Troy Tulowitzki is up and I am rooting for the guy. Nuts. Tulo grounded into a 6-4-3 double-play. Brett Gardner went ahead in the count, 3-1, but flew out to center. He is a quick 0-2. End of two, Yankees, 3-0.
Tanaka started the top of the third with a ground out to short. Tulowitzki made his first play of the season at short. No problem. Tanaka then struck out Richie Martin who is making his MLB debut. Two out. Cedric Mullins bounced one over Tanaka's head, but Gleyber Torres made a nice running play to retire the side in order. It's time for da Judge.
With two strikes, Aaron Judge put the ball in play and hit a slow roller up the middle and got himself another single. Strikeouts are NOT okay. Contact is good! Cashner got ahead of Giancarlo Stanton, but in a great plate appearance, Stanton took a walk. Men on first and second, no outs with Luke Voit up. Voit walked on four pitches to load the bases. Miguel Andujar grounded into a double-play to short. Aaron Judge scored his second run of the season. Gary Sachez flew out to deep left and the Yankees finish with a 4-0 lead after three innings.
The age old argument comes to mind after that half inning. Do you discourage Andujar's natural aggressiveness and ask him to be more patient, or do you leave him alone?
Speaking of Andujar, Tanaka started the top of the fourth with a fly out and a ground out to second. Then a ground ball was hit over the third base bag. Andujar made a nice play on it and a strong throw that would have beat the runner if he had a decent fielding first-baseman. But Bird could not come up with it while stretching and Andujar was given an error and a runner was on second. A single highlighted the play as it plated the run before Tanaka was able to end things with a fly out to center and Brett Gardner. I never, ever liked Mark Teixeira. But I sure miss his glove at first.
Greg Bird struck out for the second time. Yeah. Nothing has changed there. Gleyber Torres then hit a smash to third that bounced off the third baseman's chest. Torres was thrown out on a nice play. Tulowitzki then flew out to right. End of four, Yankees, 4-1.
Chris Davis led off for the Orioles and (Surprise!) struck out for the first out. Sucre flew out to Judge in right (sweet! Get it?). Richie Martin flew out and Tanaka was through five with a 1-2-3 inning.
The Yankees started the bottom of the fifty with walks by Gardner and Judge and are, once again, set up. Those walks finished off Andrew Cashner. Cashner used to be a live arm with huge upside. Now he is mundane with no out pitch. Mike Wright came in to face Stanton. But he walked him and the bases are loaded with no out for Luke Voit. Voit was hit by a pitch to pick up his fourth RBI of the game. Miguel Andujar again flew out deep to left and plated Judge. Judge must lead the Majors in runs scored by now. Heh. Gary Sanchez served one to right but Rickard made a great play on the dive for the second out. Greg Bird looked at a strike right down the middle and then struck out looking to end the inning.
The two first basemen in this game are now 0-5 with five strikeouts and a no-play at first to cause an error and an unearned run. Sterling! But the Yankees lead, 6-1 after five.
With Adam Ottavino warming in the bullpen, the efficient Tanaka did not seem to need any help. He recorded the first out on a comebacker. Tanaka then got rocked for a hit off the wall in right, but Aaron Judge played it perfectly and held it to a single. So impressive! Tanaka then induced a weak grounder to first. Bird made the safe play at first for the second out. His decision to not go for the lead runner cost the Yankees (and Tanaka) a run as the next batter rapped one to center. It appeared that Brett Gardner did not pick it up and it sailed over his head without even an attempt. Tanaka was taken out and on comes Ottavino to make his Yankees' debut in his home town. This should be fun!
And it was! Ottavino showed some great movement. But the batter did not bite out of the strike zone. The count went to 3-2 and then the new Yankee pitcher froze the batter with a 3-2 slider on the outside corner for the punch out. Tanaka's final line: 5.2 6 2 1 0 5 0. Both runs would not have scored with better defense. It was a good start to the season for Tanaka.
Gleyber Torres took a five-pitch walk to start the bottom of the sixth. Tulowitzki, who reminds me in looks of Fred Stanley, struck out on a foul tip. Brett Gardner flew out to right. Aaron Judge ended his perfect season by striking out. End of six, Yankees, 6-2.
Ottavino had no problem in the top of the seventh as he struck out two of the three he faced. This guy is going to be fun to watch!
Giancarlo Stanton flew out to center for the first out in the bottom of the seventh. Luke Voit walked to remain perfect for the season. Andujar lined a single to center. Gary Sanchez had a thirteen pitch at bat but finally succumbed to a popup straight up the chute. But the catcher dropped the ball which resulted in a weird double-play to end the inning. Weirdness. Yankees, 6-2 through seven.
Clarification: The popup was ruled an infield fly rule. But the runners did not stay put and thus were dead ducks.
Zack (notice the "K") Britton is on for the Yankees. A weak popup to center was the first out. Britton then walked Cedric Mullin. Drew Jackson pinch hit for his MLB debut for the Orioles. Jackson grounded to third and Andujar got the force at second for the force out. Kevin Villar singled on the ground through the hole at short. Gleyber Torres saved the day, though, with a brilliant play at second and threw out the batter from his butt. Nice!
Greg Bird was down 0-2 but hit a homer on a sweet swing to right-center. Gleyber Torres struck out on a 3-2 pitch. Tulowitzki drilled a double to left for a double and looked very emotional at second. It was a touching moment. Gardner grounded off the pitcher on a close play at first. Aaron Judge walked on four pitches. But Stanton ended the inning by striking out. End of eight, Yankees, 7-2.
Aroldis Chapman entered the game to finish things up for the Yankees in a non-save situation. He was greeted by Hanser Alberto who beat out an infield single. Chapman then struck out Joey Rickart on a well-located slider. Chapman is only throwing 94 mph. Renato Nunez flew out to center and the Yankees were an out away. A grounder to Torres finished it off and the Yankees had an Opening Day win.
Tanaka and the Yankees start the season, 1-0. Luke Voit starts the season with four ribbies and Aaron Judge scored three runs. A fun first game and the kind of game the Yankees need to play against competition against teams like the Orioles.
And the first pitch from Tanaka! A ball. But two ground outs followed and then a single to right. It took a while for Tanaka to put away Trey Mancini, but Mancini's ground ball to the right hit the runner! When is the last time you saw that! Good sign? We'll take it.
Tanaka looked crisp and sharp and hit 93 on his fastball. He looks good. The Yankees are coming up!
Brett Gardner led off and got blown away by the Orioles starter, Andrew Cashner. One out. Aaron Judge lined a single (108 mph) through the right side! Yeah! Giancarlo Stanton lined a single to right. It was hit hard, but Aaron Judge still took third. Here we go! A 3-1 count on Luke Voit. Boom! Three-run homer to dead center! Wow! Miguel Andujar flew out to the wall in left for the second out. Gary Sanchez singled to right. Greg Bird struck out to end the inning. A great start!
I saw on Twitter that Robinson Cano homered in his first at bat for the Mets. That's cool.
Tanaka got a 1-2-3 strikeout to start the top of the 2nd. Another 1-2-3 strikeout for the second out. But then Chris Davis comes up. I have no idea why Yankee pitchers always get behind on this guy. The odds of him hitting the ball are so low. Davis went 3-0. Tanaka fought back to 3-2 and then struck him out. Super inning! Tanaka looks great. Or the Orioles look awful. You choose.
Gleyber Torres hit the first pitch he saw for a single. Troy Tulowitzki is up and I am rooting for the guy. Nuts. Tulo grounded into a 6-4-3 double-play. Brett Gardner went ahead in the count, 3-1, but flew out to center. He is a quick 0-2. End of two, Yankees, 3-0.
Tanaka started the top of the third with a ground out to short. Tulowitzki made his first play of the season at short. No problem. Tanaka then struck out Richie Martin who is making his MLB debut. Two out. Cedric Mullins bounced one over Tanaka's head, but Gleyber Torres made a nice running play to retire the side in order. It's time for da Judge.
With two strikes, Aaron Judge put the ball in play and hit a slow roller up the middle and got himself another single. Strikeouts are NOT okay. Contact is good! Cashner got ahead of Giancarlo Stanton, but in a great plate appearance, Stanton took a walk. Men on first and second, no outs with Luke Voit up. Voit walked on four pitches to load the bases. Miguel Andujar grounded into a double-play to short. Aaron Judge scored his second run of the season. Gary Sachez flew out to deep left and the Yankees finish with a 4-0 lead after three innings.
The age old argument comes to mind after that half inning. Do you discourage Andujar's natural aggressiveness and ask him to be more patient, or do you leave him alone?
Speaking of Andujar, Tanaka started the top of the fourth with a fly out and a ground out to second. Then a ground ball was hit over the third base bag. Andujar made a nice play on it and a strong throw that would have beat the runner if he had a decent fielding first-baseman. But Bird could not come up with it while stretching and Andujar was given an error and a runner was on second. A single highlighted the play as it plated the run before Tanaka was able to end things with a fly out to center and Brett Gardner. I never, ever liked Mark Teixeira. But I sure miss his glove at first.
Greg Bird struck out for the second time. Yeah. Nothing has changed there. Gleyber Torres then hit a smash to third that bounced off the third baseman's chest. Torres was thrown out on a nice play. Tulowitzki then flew out to right. End of four, Yankees, 4-1.
Chris Davis led off for the Orioles and (Surprise!) struck out for the first out. Sucre flew out to Judge in right (sweet! Get it?). Richie Martin flew out and Tanaka was through five with a 1-2-3 inning.
The Yankees started the bottom of the fifty with walks by Gardner and Judge and are, once again, set up. Those walks finished off Andrew Cashner. Cashner used to be a live arm with huge upside. Now he is mundane with no out pitch. Mike Wright came in to face Stanton. But he walked him and the bases are loaded with no out for Luke Voit. Voit was hit by a pitch to pick up his fourth RBI of the game. Miguel Andujar again flew out deep to left and plated Judge. Judge must lead the Majors in runs scored by now. Heh. Gary Sanchez served one to right but Rickard made a great play on the dive for the second out. Greg Bird looked at a strike right down the middle and then struck out looking to end the inning.
The two first basemen in this game are now 0-5 with five strikeouts and a no-play at first to cause an error and an unearned run. Sterling! But the Yankees lead, 6-1 after five.
With Adam Ottavino warming in the bullpen, the efficient Tanaka did not seem to need any help. He recorded the first out on a comebacker. Tanaka then got rocked for a hit off the wall in right, but Aaron Judge played it perfectly and held it to a single. So impressive! Tanaka then induced a weak grounder to first. Bird made the safe play at first for the second out. His decision to not go for the lead runner cost the Yankees (and Tanaka) a run as the next batter rapped one to center. It appeared that Brett Gardner did not pick it up and it sailed over his head without even an attempt. Tanaka was taken out and on comes Ottavino to make his Yankees' debut in his home town. This should be fun!
And it was! Ottavino showed some great movement. But the batter did not bite out of the strike zone. The count went to 3-2 and then the new Yankee pitcher froze the batter with a 3-2 slider on the outside corner for the punch out. Tanaka's final line: 5.2 6 2 1 0 5 0. Both runs would not have scored with better defense. It was a good start to the season for Tanaka.
Gleyber Torres took a five-pitch walk to start the bottom of the sixth. Tulowitzki, who reminds me in looks of Fred Stanley, struck out on a foul tip. Brett Gardner flew out to right. Aaron Judge ended his perfect season by striking out. End of six, Yankees, 6-2.
Ottavino had no problem in the top of the seventh as he struck out two of the three he faced. This guy is going to be fun to watch!
Giancarlo Stanton flew out to center for the first out in the bottom of the seventh. Luke Voit walked to remain perfect for the season. Andujar lined a single to center. Gary Sanchez had a thirteen pitch at bat but finally succumbed to a popup straight up the chute. But the catcher dropped the ball which resulted in a weird double-play to end the inning. Weirdness. Yankees, 6-2 through seven.
Clarification: The popup was ruled an infield fly rule. But the runners did not stay put and thus were dead ducks.
Zack (notice the "K") Britton is on for the Yankees. A weak popup to center was the first out. Britton then walked Cedric Mullin. Drew Jackson pinch hit for his MLB debut for the Orioles. Jackson grounded to third and Andujar got the force at second for the force out. Kevin Villar singled on the ground through the hole at short. Gleyber Torres saved the day, though, with a brilliant play at second and threw out the batter from his butt. Nice!
Greg Bird was down 0-2 but hit a homer on a sweet swing to right-center. Gleyber Torres struck out on a 3-2 pitch. Tulowitzki drilled a double to left for a double and looked very emotional at second. It was a touching moment. Gardner grounded off the pitcher on a close play at first. Aaron Judge walked on four pitches. But Stanton ended the inning by striking out. End of eight, Yankees, 7-2.
Aroldis Chapman entered the game to finish things up for the Yankees in a non-save situation. He was greeted by Hanser Alberto who beat out an infield single. Chapman then struck out Joey Rickart on a well-located slider. Chapman is only throwing 94 mph. Renato Nunez flew out to center and the Yankees were an out away. A grounder to Torres finished it off and the Yankees had an Opening Day win.
Tanaka and the Yankees start the season, 1-0. Luke Voit starts the season with four ribbies and Aaron Judge scored three runs. A fun first game and the kind of game the Yankees need to play against competition against teams like the Orioles.
Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Tyler Wade Is Correct - He Got A Raw Deal
Tyler Wade did everything the New York Yankees asked him to do this spring. It was mostly assumed that he was going to be a part of the Opening Day roster. He worked on his offense and posted an .845 OPS for the spring. He played five different positions. He outplayed DJ LeMahieu. He had a higher OPS than Miguel Andujar. And then with a week to go until the start of the season, the Yankees acquired Mike Tauchman, installed him on the 25-man roster and punted Tyler Wade.
Wade said he felt blindsided. In a rare blip on the usual happy Yankees' news front, he said the following:
It is obvious that Tyler Wade has not yet shown that he can hit in the Majors. His .468 OPS in 133 MLB plate appearances has been insipid to say the least. But this spring showed an inkling that Wade was putting it together and would not be an automatic out. Heck, anytime he hits the ball on the ground he has a chance.
While it is true that Mike Tauchman has put up great numbers in the minors--far better than Tyler Wade to be honest--Tauchman has also not yet shown he can hit MLB pitching. In 69 MLB plate appearances, Tauchman has burned it up with a .468 OPS, the exact same number as Wade! The big difference is that Tauchman got to hit in Colorado so his OPS+ is even lower than Wade's.
Let's be clear here, neither has put up any kind of sample size that would tell us anything. Tauchman is older than Wade. Tauchman is not fast like Wade and so is not as valuable as a pinch runner. And Tauchman's defensive metrics in his short sample size are not exemplary. To also be clear, I have no faith that LeMahieu is going to offer the Yankees very much other than making sure that more valuable hitters spend some games on the bench when they should be in the field.
The Yankees gave LeMehieu a lot of money for some reason. Yes, his second base defense would be valuable if he was going to be the every day second baseman. But Gleyber Torres is there and is a much better player and there is no history of LeMehieu succeeding in a utility role. His spring numbers were not promising.
Tyler Wade got the rug pulled out from under him after having no reason of concern for all of the spring. His spot was taken on the roster by a guy who is not as versatile and who likewise has not proved he can hit MLB pitching. It bordered on cruelty how it all worked out and no one should blame him for speaking out. Wade got a raw deal and there is no other way to describe it.
Wade said he felt blindsided. In a rare blip on the usual happy Yankees' news front, he said the following:
“It kind of blindsided me,” Wade vented to reporters, according to Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. “I was just trying to get ready because our center fielder (Aaron) Hicks…I don’t know when he’s coming back, so I was just trying [to be] ready for whatever was thrown my way and then it happened.” I didn’t think it was a problem,” Wade told reporters, according to Ackert. “Just the way that I performed this spring, I did everything they asked me to do. I played well. I made the adjustments offensively. Now it’s my defense that’s not good enough.”I could not agree more. It would be one thing if the replacement for Wade was a homegrown product that outperformed him. It would be another thing if the player brought in has shown glimmers of success as a MLB player. But neither are the case.
It is obvious that Tyler Wade has not yet shown that he can hit in the Majors. His .468 OPS in 133 MLB plate appearances has been insipid to say the least. But this spring showed an inkling that Wade was putting it together and would not be an automatic out. Heck, anytime he hits the ball on the ground he has a chance.
While it is true that Mike Tauchman has put up great numbers in the minors--far better than Tyler Wade to be honest--Tauchman has also not yet shown he can hit MLB pitching. In 69 MLB plate appearances, Tauchman has burned it up with a .468 OPS, the exact same number as Wade! The big difference is that Tauchman got to hit in Colorado so his OPS+ is even lower than Wade's.
Let's be clear here, neither has put up any kind of sample size that would tell us anything. Tauchman is older than Wade. Tauchman is not fast like Wade and so is not as valuable as a pinch runner. And Tauchman's defensive metrics in his short sample size are not exemplary. To also be clear, I have no faith that LeMahieu is going to offer the Yankees very much other than making sure that more valuable hitters spend some games on the bench when they should be in the field.
The Yankees gave LeMehieu a lot of money for some reason. Yes, his second base defense would be valuable if he was going to be the every day second baseman. But Gleyber Torres is there and is a much better player and there is no history of LeMehieu succeeding in a utility role. His spring numbers were not promising.
Tyler Wade got the rug pulled out from under him after having no reason of concern for all of the spring. His spot was taken on the roster by a guy who is not as versatile and who likewise has not proved he can hit MLB pitching. It bordered on cruelty how it all worked out and no one should blame him for speaking out. Wade got a raw deal and there is no other way to describe it.
A Really Dusty MLB Crystal Ball-2019
For many years, this blog had produced an annual "crystal ball" list of predictions for the coming season. Somehow surviving three moves and years of inactivity, a very dusty crystal ball has been once again summoned to bring in the new year. What follows is not your scientific, analysis driven predictions based on playing 2,000 Strat-O-matic baseball games. It is an off-the-cuff look into an obviously hard to clarify crystal ball that has sat in the closet for far too many years:
Enjoy the return of our favorite sport!
- If he stays healthy, Yasiel Puig is going to have a monster year for the Reds, make the All Star team and be in the top five for MVP
- If he stays healthy, Aaron Judge will top Mookie Betts and Mike Trout for the 2019 MVP in the American League. Judge missed fifty games last year and still had as many WAR (5.1) as Fangraphs.com says he will have for a whole season in 2019. Wrong!
- Two of the top three pitchers in NL Cy Young Award voting last year will be in the top three again this year. The one dropping out will be Aaron Nola.
- The San Diego Padres will be one of the Wild Card teams in the NL.
- Troy Tulowitzki will see more games played than Aaron Hicks.
- Matt Wieters will catch as many or more games as Yadier Molina and have a nice bounce-back season.
- Sticking with the Cardinals, Adam Wainwright will have a swansong season, ala Mike Mussina, and lead the Cardinals to an NL Central Division championship.
- A lot has to go right for an aging, but talented group of starting pitchers, but the Washington Nationals will edge the Phillies for the NL East title. One of the biggest keys is whether Stephen Strasburg can turn in a star turn this season.
- The Red Sox will again edge the Yankees in the AL East. Starting pitching is too much of a problem for the Yankees to overcome.
- The Indians will again run away with a terrible AL Central with only the Twins and White Sox having a shot at flirting with the .500 mark.
- I do not see the Chicago Cubs making the playoffs. They have an old rotation, an unsettled bullpen and the offense is not as potent as it once was. The Brewers will be a better team.
- Bryce Harper will hit forty homers and walk more than 100 times.
- The Dodgers are far from a lock as the NL West champs. Their rotation is banged up with only Kenta Meada being a reliable option. The outfield seems to be a wasteland, Corey Seager has to find his way back. The infield lacks star players not named Justin Turner. Where is the talent?
- The American League will adjust a bit to Blake Snell. He will be good, but not AS good.
- But who in the NL West can overtake the Dodgers? The Rockies will take a step back. The Diamondbacks will miss their first baseman. The Giants do not seem a threat. Who then?
- The Oakland Athletics will take a step backwards. A LOT went right for them last year. That kind of thing doesn't happen very often two years in a row.
- Thus, alas, the Astros will again win the AL West with probably the Angels finishing second...distantly.
- The Yankees will break their own home run record. Gleyber Torres will have a better year than Miguel Andujar. Giancarlo Stanton will be better and Gary Sanchez may hit .230 but will hit 30+ homers.
- J.D. Martinez will take a step back this season. He will be solid, but not quite the force he was last year. Injuries will limit him this year.
- In a race for the MLB's most losses, the Orioles will again outlast the Marlins due to the amount of games the Orioles play against powerhouse rivals.
- Umpire Angel Hernandez will average causing 5.3 Twitter rants per week.
- MVPs - AL: Aaron Judge, NL: Christian Yelich repeat.
- CYA - AL: Chris Sale, NL: Max Scherzer
- Rookie of the Year: AL: Elroy Jimenez, NL: Pete Alonso
- Manager Of The Year: AL: Alex Cora, NL: Mike Schildt (can I buy a vowel?)
- Comeback Player: AL: Dustin Pedroia, NL: Adam Wainwright
- And here is the big one: The players union and MLB will sign a major and new labor agreement that will bring harmony to the game for another ten years.
Enjoy the return of our favorite sport!
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