Roy Oswalt and Market Determination Revisited

Yesterday in this space, this author wrote that Roy Oswalt had earned the right to limit his market choices and to stick to his price in negotiations as a free agent. The piece was a counterpoint to another writer who stated that Oswalt "had too big a head" and can move along from the St. Louis Cardinals' feeding trough. The point was also made that Oswalt is well worth what he is asking for his services. This other writer wasn't very happy about yesterday's post and chose to rebut it by reprinting this writer's entire post and interspersing comments throughout. That's kind of rude, but at least the writer provided a link back to here. Thanks for the page views, sir.

Disagreement is fine. Enlightenment only comes from open dialogue, which is why the Freedom of Speech is so important to us as a people. Your host here certainly doesn't believe he knows all the answers. Somebody once said that wisdom begins with the knowledge that there is more unknown than known. So the name calling directed here as "noninformed ," is not overly troublesome. Without resorting to a flame war, which is way too unseemly in polite society, this author does want to make a few points in response.

The key issue is market determination. That other writer feels that Oswalt has run into a problem where the market considers his value lower than Oswalt does. That would be true enough if Oswalt had allowed a complete and open market for his services to develop and could still not find a job. Oswalt's true "problem" is that he has limited his market choices to a few teams that do not care to pay Oswalt what he wants. If Oswalt was available to any team on the market, someone surely would have given him the money is is asking.

Roy Oswalt doesn't want to pitch in Seattle or Detroit or a host of other different cities. He has narrowed his choices to just a few teams he would consider. That's not a true market determination problem. That's a personal market limitation choice that has led to a problem. This other writer also states that Oswalt's performance value (which last year stood at $11.1 million, Oswalt's lowest) doesn't matter. It's the market that matters. But performance value does matter. That's why the Phillies chose not to offer Oswalt arbitration. Arbitration would have given Oswalt the money. That's what arbitration does.

Okay, you might say that the Phillies just proved the market determination point. It only proves it as far as the Phillies were concerned. They had cheaper options in Vance Worley, etc., and have a huge and unwieldy payroll they have to worry about. Other teams may not have those options or problems. Let's look at the Cardinals as an example. On the Cardinals, only two of their pitchers' performances were more valuable than Roy Oswalt's last season: Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia. Jake Westbrook was paid $8 million and was far less valuable a pitcher. Kyle Lohse made $11.8 million and was far less valuable. On paper, Adam Wainwright is more valuable than Roy Oswalt. But let's see what happens as he returns from Tommy John surgery.

Could Roy Oswalt be a benefit to the Cardinals? Certainly. Will they choose to pay Oswalt $10 million for a season. Maybe not. We'll see. This other writer made a point that the Cardinals can't afford $10 million for 139 innings. The Cardinals are still $20 million below last year's payroll and that's with the addition of Furcal and Beltran and a bump in salary to Berkman and Garcia. With the cash from their World Series title, the savings from Pujols and La Russa, the team may well choose to incur more profit this season as is their right. But they could certainly afford Oswalt.

Roy Oswalt has made the personal choice to limit his market. That choice may lead to less income (or no income) than he wants. Any personal choice comes with inherent risks. Frankly, any team that wants to compete should sign the guy. Pitchers with his skill aren't rampant in the game. Feel free to disagree. Oswalt's problem isn't that he has a big head. He absolutely knows his value. He has simply chosen fewer teams to pay him market value rather than allowing the full marketplace to bid on his services. Time will tell if his choice costs him in the end.

BBA Linkfest - Generally Tried and True

Hey! It is Thursday again and that means another romp around the General Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. Since last week's installment of our weekly links, northern Maine has received more than a foot and a half inches of snow. But, heck, we are into February, the month that players report to Florida and Arizona and we can dream of spring. The worst of the winter is over (It is over in some places). If it is still cold where you live, pour a cup of coffee, sit in a warm place and click these fantastic links. Who doesn't love to read about baseball! We'll start with two of our newest members to the Alliance.

The Pop Fly Boys cover all sports but here is a great example of what we can expect from their baseball writers as they consider the Cardinals' place in the new NL Central. Welcome to the Alliance!

Another new entry is Aaron's Tasty Baseball Blog. The site features fun polls and some very good writing. Check out this weekly baseball review. Welcome to the Alliance!

Another great new entry is Niktig's Baseball Blog. Welcome to the Alliance! Check out this post on some bargain free agents still on the market.

In the pure joy department, here's a report from Grubby Glove from the A's Fan Fest held this past week. The smile says it all.

The Hall of Very Good reports on something wonderful the Brewers did for their fans. No, they didn't give Prince Fielder all the peanuts he wanted, but the team does care about its fans. Nice work, HOVG.

Theo over at Hot Corner Harbor has a great post about some multi-team Hall of Fame players coming up in the future. Great read.

The Fan loves it when Left Field makes lists and checks them twice. Here's a great post on Jorge Posada.

The Fan thinks the Major League A**holes have their tongues firmly in cheek as they compare Prince Fielder's signing to Adam Dunn.

Over at MLB Dirt, Andrew Martin has another great prospect interview. How does he DO that? It's terrific as always. And since the Fan is always tooting other's horns, check out his entry over at that site too. In the first person, even.

Two of the most popular minor league pitchers on Twitter are Michael Schlact and The Garfoose. Schlact proves why he is so popular with a guest blog over at MLB Reports. The post is getting a lot of buzz and deservedly so.

In probably the coolest post of the week, check out this game clip of Jose Bautista doing what he does best over at Old Time Family Baseball. The Fan could watch this on an endless loop for hours.

Over at The Platoon Advantage, TCM has an unhealthy relationship. It is doubted that he is alone in this particular malady. And if you have a Baseball Prospectus subscription (which you should), check out Jason's latest piece on being a spy at the A's Fan Fest.

Our friend over at The Sports Banter has been busy in real life, so he apologizes. But at least he whets our appetite for some topics to come. Can't wait!

Sully thinks we should keep an eye on the Pirates as a sleeper in 2012. Seriously? Well that would be cool. Check it out at Sully Baseball.

Steve Randel has a great report on the Caribbean Baseball Classic. Need a fix for current baseball? Follow this Through the Fence Baseball story.

When a General Chapter site promotes a downloadable book from our Cardinals Chapter, we simply have to promote that, right? Here it is from 85% Sports. Hey you Cardinal folks, if you want that great thing printed, give this Fan a holler.

Ryan Sendek over at Analysis Around the Horn let's us know what he's working on. Don't worry, Ryan, you're worth the wait.

The Ball Caps Blog lends its support to a friend who wants to be a part of MLB's Fan Cave. This Fan would do that in a heartbeat if he was still young and single.

Our friend at the former Baseball Hall of Fame has re-branded the site as Baseball Unrated. The first post at the new place is a great read on what the 2013 Hall of Fame ballot will look like.

Continuing the 2013 HOF theme, Baseballism nods Mike Piazza and anoints him as golden. Quite agree here.

Aaron over at Blogging From the Bleachers is getting excited about the baseball season and whets his appetite with his fantasy baseball selections. Great fun to read.

Over at Call to the Pen, Blaine Blontz reports on the minor league deal Carlos Guillen signed with the Seattle Mariners. It's a long shot, but if he's healthy...

Over at Che Palle! Mario Salvini celebrates Nolan Ryan's birthday. This Fan would never tire of celebrating that pitcher! The Fan wonders if Salvini has heard about the Garfoose heading to play in Italy? The Garfoose is coming, the Garfoose is coming!

Folks, Curley Bender is a terrific writer. And his Crum-Bum Beat has become a must read. Check out this offbeat post about two famous traders.

If TheNaturalMevs of Diamond Hoggers writes about Peter Gammons and Jason Heyward, this Fan is so there.

For Baseball Junkies continues their terrific series on All-Decade teams. This one features the 2000's NL version.

The Baseball Index reports and gives their take on the Cody Ross signing with the Boston Red Sox. Ross could be useful.

And finally, Griffin Phelps has a terrific interview with Trevor Bauer, who seems like a kid we can all root for. Check out the post among all the great writing over at the Golden Sombrero.

And to steal a little of Bill Ivie's shameless self-promotion, it's super cool to announce that your favorite Fan has become a featured writer over at It's About the Money, Stupid. This is a terrific honor for your guy as IIATMS is one of the country's most popular baseball sites. Check out the first post there. And thanks as always for your support of this site and all of our terrific General Chapter sites.

Oswalt Could Earn $10 Million in His Sleep

Americans are so fickle when it comes to labor. The citizens here talk about labor getting its due and fairness and all that. But as soon as the garbage trucks stop running, those same folks want the mayor to arrest all the waste management people. The same goes for baseball players. Most Americans would agree that baseball before the Marvin Miller days was unfair to players. Now, when those negotiated rights have been earned and a free agent tries to take advantage of those rights, he is scorned. The negative press that Roy Oswalt is receiving these days is a case in point.

Take this guy's point of view for example. According to this writer in question, Oswalt has a "fat head." Well, gosh. Oswalt must be a villain then. Excuse him for pitching for eleven years and earning the right to pick and choose where he will play and how much he wants to get paid. At least this writer in question admits that Roy Oswalt is worth the $10 million he is supposedly asking, "if he is healthy." The reality is that Roy Oswalt is worth $10 million even if he isn't healthy. Yeah, Oswalt only pitched 139 innings last season. But even so, those innings were worth $11.1 million.

The reality also is that whatever team ends up wanting to sign him will have a full opportunity to back off of any deal if Oswalt can't pass a physical. And don't worry. Nobody is going to plunk down that many clams without having their doctors go over Oswalt's back thoroughly. 

So what makes Oswalt a villain? He wants to pitch not too far from where his family lives. Do you blame him? For six months, a baseball player spends half of his time away from home. That's a lot of time away from those you love, is it not? Oswalt would like to pitch for a contender. Wouldn't you? Baseball players are competitors. They want to compete at the highest level. Oswalt spent a lot of years in Houston playing for the Astros that weren't a heck of a lot of fun. Losing isn't fun no matter how much money you make.

Perhaps the biggest reason to call Oswalt a villain or a fat head is that he wants to be paid what he is worth. Who can blame him? The guy has won 159 games with a career FIP of 3.35. His career has been worth $170 million and he's made $91 million. Well, yeah, that's a lot of money and nobody is pitying him nor should be. But it's not like Oswalt is asking for a multi-year contract which he would be worth oodles of money. He's reportingly seeking a one year deal. No doubt part of that strategy is to rebuild some value for the next go round. 

One of Oswalt's closest comps at his age is Mike Mussina. Mussina won 88 games after reaching the age of 34, Oswalt's 2012 age. When you know how to pitch, you know how to pitch, plain and simple. The bottom line here is that even if Oswalt can only give his new club 139 more innings, he'll be worth what he's asking. He's earned the right to make the deal that pays him what he's worth and play where he wants to play. Find another mule to kick already.

Does Cozart Rhyme With Mozart?

After winning the National League Central in 2010, the Cincinnati Reds laid an egg in 2011. While stalwarts, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce provide some continuity to the 2010 team, much of the Reds' hopes in 2012 fall on new acquisitions like Matt Latos and Ryan Madson and youngsters like Zack Cozart and Devin Mesoraco. Mesoraco has some cushion as Ryan Hanigan is a very reliable catcher. Zack Cozart, on the other hand, is counted on to seal the defense at short. It's a scary proposition. Will Cozart rhyme with Mozart this season, or will he be more Vanilla Ice?

Looking at Cozart's numbers is confusing. His stats in the minors before 2011 were pedestrian. Then suddenly he is putting balls in play all over the field and hit over .300 in Louisville and again in 38 exciting plate appearances for the big club before blowing out his non-throwing elbow in August. He had Tommy John surgery on that elbow that same month and is said to be good to go in the spring. Still, you have to wonder considering the Reds just obtained Wilson Valdez from the Phillies. Perhaps the Reds are a bit worried too.

With such a small major league sample size, can anything be said about Cozart's brief exposure to the majors? He was brilliant in the field. According to the stats, he converted every chance at shortstop into an out. That's impressive. But again, it doesn't really match his minor league history. Another concern was that in his eleven games, he never took a walk. He only walked a little over six percent of the time in the minors, so are we looking at another Yuniesky Betancourt? Time will tell.

A lot rides on Cozart's shoulders (and elbows, it seems). Shortstop is a premium position that remains without many real stars around the majors. When Clint Barmes is a good option for teams, there isn't a whole lot of talent out there. Defense is certainly the biggest key of the position and it appears that Cozart can be very good. But that's only half the battle. You also have to be able to at least hit somewhere near league average. Projections for Cozart are already all over the place for 2012. Bill James has him at, .256/.306/.404 while others have him hitting as high as .283 with an on-base percentage at .330. The latter will work. The former will be a drag.

Can we see anything else from Cozart's minuscule sample size? It's hard not to like his only four percent swinging strike percentage. Cozart makes contact. He hit ground balls twice more often than he hit the ball in the air. That's a bit troublesome combined with his only nine percent line drive rate. Again, this is all with so little samples to go by that they might all be moot points. Perhaps we just have to give the guy 500 plate appearances and see what happens.

Cozart had some power in the minors but that disappeared last year. If he hits the ball in the air, twenty percent of such contact results in a homer. That's impressive. But he doesn't hit the ball in the air often enough. The thing that is just hard to get over is that 2011 seems so much different than all of his previous performances. Is that the new Zack Cozart? Is this the player we have now? Or is the pre-2011 guy the real one? Again, we'll have to wait and see.

Fortunately, the Reds do have some fallback plans. The aforementioned Valdez is capable and if all else fails, there is always the solid glove of Paul Janish (who likely is the odd man out here). The Reds aren't much different than any team this time of year. A lot will have to go right for them to regain their 2010 mojo as a contender in 2012. If Zack Cozart can prove he is the Reds' shortstop answer for years to come in the 2012 season, that would be a huge aid to their cause.

Rangers' Infield - Three Beemers and a Dodge

These new Texas Rangers have been an amazing story the past two years. Most baseball fans through the years remember how the Rangers were always a one-dimensional team. They could always pound the ball, but they could never pitch. From 1997 through 2008 (a twelve year stretch), the Rangers gave up an average of 883 runs per game. In seven of those seasons, the pitching staff gave up more runs than the batters plated. Obviously, that's not a winning formula. The last two seasons, the Rangers have allowed only 687 and 677 runs while scoring 787 and 855 runs respectively. That's as good a reason as any for two straight World Series appearances in a row. But as we all should now know, defense plays a key role in preventing runs and few teams do it better than the Rangers. A big part of that defense is the infield, which boasts three Beemers and a Dodge.

Perhaps it is unfair to pick on Dodge. From their television commercials, they are trying hard to change their brand/quality image. The Yugo has all but disappeared, so that analogy is too obscure. But anyway, you get the idea. The Rangers boast three sparkling defenders and then there is first base. Adrian Beltre at third? One of the best ever. Elvis Andrus? The reason Michael Young is a DH. Ian Kinsler? One of the most underrated, all around players in the game. And then there is the first base gaggle of Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli (when he isn't catching) and Michael Young. The Rangers are one cog away from a beautiful wheel.

Elvis Andrus hasn't developed as expected as a hitter, but his defense more than justifies his existence. It is not mere coincidence that the Rangers started pitching better once he became the shortstop. He was the fifth (or sixth depending on which site you believe) best fielding shortstop in baseball last season. No offense to Michael Young, but once Elvis took over, the difference was night and day.

Ian Kinsler was the third best fielding second baseman in baseball last season. He wasn't rated as highly in 2010, but injuries can explain a lot of that story. But his defense in 2011 was even better than his stellar defensive season of 2009. We can safely state that if Kinsler is healthy, then he's one of the best at his position in baseball.

We all know about Adrian Beltre. The guy is a flat out magician over at third base. Despite ups and downs with his health, Beltre (according to Fangraphs) has been 152.8 runs better than average for his career. If he can continue his pace, he won't catch Brooks Robinson in that category, but he will finish a solid second. He is the best fielding third baseman of his generation.

And then you get to first base. Mitch Moreland got the bulk of the time there. He played first for 99 games and spent another 34 games in right field (due to injuries to Nelson Cruz). Baseball-reference.com gives Moreland a -1 runs lost below average, which isn't terrible. Fangraphs has him at league average for his 99 games at first. Mike Napoli played 35 games at first. B-R has him 2 runs better than average, Fangraphs at -1.5. Michael Young played 36 games at first and B-R gives him -2 runs below average and Fangraphs, -2.1. The obvious statement is that first base fielding at first base does not match the high rent district found elsewhere around the diamond.

Despite endless Google searches, "scoop" data could not be found for an individual seasons like 2011. Tango Tiger and others have done superb studies on such data for a large number of years. Basically, these studies show how many errors are saved by first basemen. But suspicions are at least aroused by the fact that Ian Kinsler made only two throwing errors in all of 2009 and none in 2010 and yet that figure jumped to six in 2011. It's possible that he air-balled all six of those throws and without the data, who knows. But let's call it suspicious.

The bottom line here is that the Rangers are one positional fielder away from having the best infield in baseball. It's a shame that Justin Smoak needed to be traded away to obtain Cliff Lee. Smoak has all the makings of a good fielding first baseman (though his numbers there went south some in 2011). While Prince Fielder may have made the Rangers' line up invincible, he wouldn't have helped in the field. So at least that's a positive. But with Mitch Moreland penciled in as the starting first baseman and Young and Napoli continuing to take their turns over there, the Rangers' infield will continue to contain three Beemers and a Dodge...or a Kia...or..oh you get the idea.

Juan Pierre - Bunt King

Juan Pierre just signed a minor league contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. That's quite a come-down for a guy who has played 318 games for the White Sox the last two seasons. The odds of Pierre making the Phillies' roster and/or seeing any significant playing time if he does, seems remote. And that's probably as it should be. Pierre earned negative value according to Fangraphs in 2011 and had zero value according to Baseball-reference.com. Even at your most optimistic, zero value in 158 games doesn't seem like much of a value proposition. And it's kind of too bad that Pierre has about as much chance of getting significant playing time as Ron Paul has of being president. Juan Pierre is a totally unique ballplayer. He is the bunt king.

The one chance Pierre has of catching on with the Phillies (or anyone else) is with his legs. The Phillies were ponderous last year and Pierre has always been fast if nothing else. You could do worse to use him as a defensive replacement late in games though his defensive ratings over the years look like a Dow Jones Index (adding further questions about such metric's worth). His arm is worthless in the outfield, but he can still cover some ground. His arm, in fact, is legendary. He makes Johnny Damon look like he has a cannon.

But again, Pierre is an oddity. He is a statistical toy. Make fun of that all you want, but it sure is interesting. He'll be missed if his playing days are over just for the joy his statistics give us. Here are some examples:

• During his twelve years in Major League Baseball, Luis Castillo is the only other player to have more than 1000 games played with a lower ISO than Juan Pierre. A slugger Pierre is most certainly not.
• During his twelve year career, no one has played as many games as Pierre and has struck out less often. His 5.7 strikeout percentage is the lowest in baseball during his career and among all currently active players, only Jeff Keppinger comes close.
• Unfortunately, Pierre's walk rate matches his strikeout rate. 5.7 percent.
• In Pierre's twelve years in the big leagues, he's led his league in caught stealing seven times! He's only been successful 72 percent of the time in his career. He's led the league in steals three times, but he is not particularly good at it.
• Amazingly, Pierre has led his league in hits twice. Despite only playing twelve seasons (eleven full), he's compiled 2,020 hits. Since he's only 33, if he were to play seven more full seasons, he'd get to 3,000.

That's a pretty amazing list of fun stats, is it not? But that's not even the best one. The best statistic to ponder is Juan Pierre's bunting. Batted ball data really only goes back a few years, so we really can't compare Pierre historically. But Pierre is the bunt king of his generation. Fangraphs and B-R differ slightly on his bunt attempts with B-R giving him more, so we'll go with that for now. According to that site, Juan Pierre has had 625 bunt attempts in his career. That's almost a full season! To put that in perspective, one of out of every twelve plate appearances has ended with a bunt. That's incredible.

Of those bunt attempts, 144 have been sacrifice hits. Nobody but old managers are fond of sacrifices, but still. Of those bunt attempts, 186 have led to base hits (Fangraphs has it at 192). That's sixty plus more than the nearest guy since such statistics have been kept. Two of those bunt hits led to doubles (if you can imagine that). So, for Pierre's 625 bunt attempts, he winds up with a slash line of: .387/387/.391. When Juan Pierre bunts, he has an OPS+ of 120. Why would he ever swing?

So sure, we can all state that Juan Pierre hasn't been a very valuable player. And he's at a point in his career where baseball front offices are very aware of valuation metrics. It seems highly unlikely that Juan Pierre will ever again see significant playing time. Which is kind of sad. Because Juan Pierre has some of the goofiest numbers of any baseball player of his era. He is the contact king. He is the walkless king. He is the caught stealing king. He is the toothless king and he is the floppy arm king. But more than anything else, Juan Pierre has been the bunt king.

The Ichiro Lead Off Debate

Eric Wedge is talking tough about Ichiro Suzuki according to an Associated Press piece reported on ESPN.com. Wedge is quoted in the report as saying, "Ultimately it's not just about Ichiro, it's about our club and his 24 other teammates." Those are some pretty strong words. If you read between the lines there, Wedge is saying that he can't be worried about what Ichiro thinks. Does that statement also hint that what Ichiro thinks is a problem? Could be. The bigger question isn't whether Wedge has a problem or not with Ichiro's pride. The question is whether Ichiro should be the Mariners' lead off batter.

It is very easy to believe the sky is falling concerning Ichiro Suzuki. He is entering the 2012 season as a 38 year old who showed major signs that time caught up with him last year. He failed for the first time to reach 200 hits and his final slash line of, .273/.310/.337 really exacerbates the reality that Suzuki doesn't walk enough for a lead off batter if he fails to hit. The outfielder walked only 26 non-intentional times in 721 plate appearances (he was intentionally walked 13 times). His low walk rate has always been his reality (6.2 percent lifetime), but his ability to hit safely better than most humans made that somewhat acceptable. When the batting average falls to .272, the low walk rate becomes more of an issue.

And it's not as if Ichiro just had a bad half of a season in 2011. Both his first half and second half were very similar. But there is a glimmer of hope that Ichiro Suzuki could rebound a little bit. A lot of Ichiro's metrics remained static in 2011. His line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates were all within his career norms. So were his strikeouts. The only real difference was the number of his batted balls that fell safely in play. Ichiro has a career BABIP of .354. The three years prior to 2011 included these BABIP rates respectively: .334, .384, .353. Last year his BABIP was .294, easily the lowest of his career. Without knowing the quality of that contact (MPH off the bat), the assumption could be made that there is room for some bounce back.

There is this myth that the lead off position is this haven of on-base heaven in baseball. That is more wish than reality. Lead off batters in all of baseball last year had a slash line of .267/.328/.398. In 2010 it was, .264/.329/.384. Lead off batters who have a high on-base percentage are more the exception than the rule (market inefficiency?). Ichiro's average was above the average while his on-base percentage and slugging were lower than league average.

But what if he were to recover some? Three different projections systems were consulted for this post. Ichiro's projected slash lines in the three: .303/.347/.377, .291/.332/.359 and .303/.344/.382. All three of those projections see some bounce back and put Ichiro's average and on-base well above league average.

To see what Eric Wedge is looking at in the big picture, some discussion needs to take place about other lead off options the manager might have. Dustin Ackley's name comes to mind immediately. In Ackley's debut season in 2011, his on-base percentage was .348--well above Ichiro's. Ackley finished his minor league career with an on-base percentage of .381. Projections from three different systems put Ackley's on-base percentage in 2012 anywhere from .341 to .373. If Ackley can do that, he becomes just slightly more effective as a lead off batter than Ichiro's projections. Is there anyone else?

Justin Smoak has very good patience at the plate, but he's the power hitter you want in the middle of the line up. The same goes for Jesus Montero. Franklin Gutierrez has a .310 lifetime on-base percentage. That doesn't work. Mike Carp is counted on for power. Brendan Ryan doesn't hit enough.

The bottom line is that Ichiro and Ackley are the only two on the team that make sense in the line up position. They are, in fact, interchangeable in their ability to get on base. Since Ackley has more ability to get extra base hits, it seems to make more sense to bat him second behind Ichiro rather than in front of him. Perhaps Eric Wedge is trying to motivate Ichiro Suzuki. In the last season of his contract, if Ichiro wants to continue playing beyond 2012, he will have enough motivation to improve on what was a lost 2011. The Mariners should start the season with Ichiro Suzuki as their lead off batter and give it fifty games to see what happens.

BBA Link Fest - Change in General

Welcome to another Thursday link fest! Every Thursday, we take a stroll around the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, focusing on the General Chapter. What is the General Chapter? They are BBA affiliated sites that aren't specific to a single team and write whatever crosses their awesomely talented minds. Do yourself a big favor and click some of these links and read some great baseball writing. Not only will you be glad you did, but you'll have our appreciation as well. Thank you always for your support. Okay, enough intro, let's get to the links:

Change is the theme this week and if that's the case, we must start with The Platoon Advantage. Our good friends announced that once a week, their work will be featured at Baseball Prospectus. Hearty congrats to our pals as they deserve as much wide recognition as possible. And just to prove that their fine writing will also continue at the home site, here's a sample of when TCM met the commissioner and drank his beer. A subscription to BP only costs about $3.95 a month and is very much worth the cost. Now you have one more reason to get it!

Over at one of our newer member sites, Justin of BaseBlog has a fun series going recounting Sports Illustrated covers for different teams. Cool beans. So far he's done the Cardinals and the Brewers.

Speaking of change, the Tigers certainly changed their team this week. Sully over at Sully Baseball thinks the Tigers made a more sensible deal that the Angels.

One thing that never changes is that Through the Fence Baseball always has terrific content to read every week. This Fan particularly liked this post celebrating a baseball movie that actually garnered Oscar consideration.

Jake Ciely is flabbergasted by the Fielder deal. His X-Log post finds a way to get past his shock and makes some sport bet suggestions.

In this week's Fan choice for post of the week, Russ Blatt over at 85% Sports has a touching piece on his friend, Gary Carter.

Another change occurred this week that got someone overlooked because of the Fielder deal. But Sooze over at Babes Love Baseball makes sure we know that Timmy got paid.

The Fan has to feel for one of his favorite buds over at The Ball Caps Blog. First, his beloved 49ers lost their playoff game. Now he bemoans the talent drain in the National League.

If Russ Blatt hadn't touched this Fan's heartstrings, this post from FHPromos over at Baseballism on where Jorge Posada fits in among Yankee catchers through history would have been the best of the week. Terrific stuff.

Easily one of our most active sites with terrific content every single day is Call to the Pen. The Fan's favorite this week is a rally cry for the Washington Nationals written by Lew Freedman.

Over at the Crum-Bum Beat, Curly Bender has another terrific baseball-related movie moment for us. But it's not about Moneyball. Great read. He's also got a fabulous picture of Louis Tiant you simply have to see.

Mario Salvini from our Italian entry, Che Palle! has a terrific entry this week remembering Italian ball player, Vic Raschi.

Three of our favorite writers from three different General Chapter sites had a baseball show event recently that you must listen to. You can find it here over at Diamond Hoggers.

Speaking of change, is it just the Fan or did For Baseball Junkies get a new logo? If so, it looks terrific. If it's the same one as they've always had, then this Fan feels pretty stupid, but it's still a great logo. Anyway, check out their great perspective on the Fielder deal.

The Baseball Index reports on a deal the Blue Jays made for a relief pitcher. Is it just this Fan, or do the Blue Jays try to catch bullpen lightening in a bottle every season?

More great stuff from Golden Sombrero this week. More great prospect reports but this is a great article by Dee Clark on a positive way of looking at the steroid scandal. 

Loic, a writer on our French affiliate, MajorBaseball.fr has reactions to the Rafael Betancourt deal.

Grubby Glove has a truly great and interesting piece this week on the 1972 Topps baseball cards. This Fan remembers buying those in his youth.

The Hall of Very Good has some of the most fascinating posts. Just this week you can read about Adam Dunn's amazing season, Jose Canseco at the AVN Awards and this post, about Heath Bell's amazing backyard. 

Theo over at Hot Corner Harbor has another one of his famous quizzes this week. So much fun!

In a terrifically well-written piece, Left Field gives us a discussion on views of success and failure that you must read.

In their own off-beat style, Major League A**holes has their take on the Prince Fielder signing.

After digesting the trade for a couple of weeks, Michael Schwartze has a different look at the Pineda - Montero trade over at MLB Dirt. 

The Baseball Wives reality show has gotten a lot of ink lately. But as usual, it's sometimes difficult to remember that these are real people. Jonathan Hacohen of MLB Reports helps fix that with a terrific interview with Maggie McCracken.

MTD, our favorite absurdist from Off Base Percentage is going to change his name. Why? Read this.

And finally, Old Time Family Baseball reports that Alex Cora hasn't retired after all. And check out their birthday tribute to Bob Uecker by clicking on the site's heading.

Have a great week everyone!

Why is Colby Lewis a Rotation Lock?

Almost forgotten in the "Rangers didn't get Fielder," story line which has eclipsed all other news this week, is that, yes, the Rangers signed Yu Darvish. Without thinking about it deeply, Darvish simply rolls into C.J. Wilson's vacated slot since Wilson signed with the Angels. But it's far more complicated than, "Darvish equals Wilson." The Rangers are also intent on trying Neftali Feliz in the starting rotation which gives the Rangers a bit of a nice problem with too many starting pitchers. That brings us to this post over at ESPN.com's Dallas affiliate which presented a debate by two writers there about what the Rangers should do about it. Their conclusions were a bit astounding.

One of the writers said that Alexi Ogando should go to the bullpen where he was such a force in the playoffs. The other writer posited that Ogando should be given a full chance at starting and Matt Harrison should be traded for needed parts (center field and first base). Both writers based their calls on Darvish followed by Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz (and this is the kicker) and Colby Lewis being a lock for the rotation. The swing spot was either Harrison or Ogando depending on the writer. The big question this Fan has is: Why is Colby Lewis a lock?

According to Fangraphs.com, this was the following fWAR scores by starting pitcher: Wilson (5.9), Harrison (4.2), Holland (3.6), Ogando (3.6) and Lewis (2.3). Aren't you seeing what this Fan is seeing? Baseball-reference.com has them in the same exact order though the numbers differ a little bit. Baseball Prospectus agrees with the same order. Is there any basis to bump Colby Lewis above both Ogando and Harrison?

The answer to that question depends on which statistic you believe to be the fluke number for Colby Lewis. He was wonderful in 2010 after coming back from Japan. He put up a 4.6 fWAR season. His FIP that season at 3.55 was better than his final ERA of 3.72. He struck out a healthy 8.78 batters per nine innings while only walking 2.91. Last year wasn't as good for Lewis. His FIP rose up to 4.54 and his homers per nine really spiked to 1.57 per nine after limiting them to under one in 2010. So was 2010 the fluke or the homers in 2011?

This writer doesn't believe the homers were a fluke. Why? Colby Lewis is a fly ball pitcher. His ground ball to fly ball ratios the past two seasons have been 0.84 and 0.70 respectively. Fly balls fly far in Texas. Matt Harrison, on the other hand, doesn't strike out as many batters as Lewis (6.11 to Lewis' 7.59 in 2011). But Harrison is a ground ball pitcher pitching to the best fielding infield in baseball. Harrison's ground ball to fly ball ratio the past two seasons have been 1.42 and 1.47. Doesn't that work better in Texas with that infield?

Ogando is pretty neutral in the ground ball category. His ground ball to fly ball ratio was 0.91. Everyone falls on Ogando because he collapsed a bit in the second half. But the Rangers stretched him out to 169 innings which was uncharted territory. It's only natural that he might have run out of gas. And Ogando simply has better stuff than either Harrison or Lewis and should be allowed to develop as a starter.

The left-handed angle with Matt Harrison is not a good argument. Unlikely as it seems, Harrison had more trouble with left-handed batters in 2011 than he did with right-handed batters. You would think it would be the other way around. But Lewis is even worse against left-handed batters and such batters had an .829 OPS against Lewis last season. To be fair, Colby Lewis is death to right-handed batters.

This post is no knock on Colby Lewis. The guy has been a terrific story for the Rangers since he got back from Japan. His post-season heroics are noted. And Lewis is a good guy to have around with his Japanese connection as Darvish makes the transition. But in this humble writer's opinion, the Rangers' future revolves around Darvish, Ogando, Harrison and Holland. The Rangers should be building these guys for the long run.

The wild card in all this is Feliz. Can he make the transition? Is he worth the risk? Certainly, Wilson and Ogando have paved the way and make it hard to say that Feliz can't make the transition. You have to think that if any team can pull it off, the team would be the Rangers. It simply grieves the inner geek in this writer to have the experiment happen at the expense of either Harrison or Ogando. When Wilson and Ogando were converted, there were no other options available. There are now.

One of the writers in the article linked above threw off the comment that the Rangers could use Ogando in the bullpen in 2012 and still convert him to a starter in 2013. As soon as that comment was read, the mind immediately raced to Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Oh man, don't go down that road if you can help it.

The Rangers have a nice problem on their hands with too much starting pitching. We will all be interested in how that works itself out. Feliz will get his chance. Colby Lewis is even being talked about as the Opening Day starter. This Fan just can't get away from the feeling that Lewis is the sixth best option of this rotation (giving Feliz the benefit of the doubt). And don't forget, a now healthy Scott Feldman could probably start on most teams. Look at the post season he had. This writer isn't sold on Colby Lewis and the Texas Rangers shouldn't be either. These things have a way of working themselves out so we'll just have to wait and see.

When La Russa Manages the All Star Game

The St. Louis Cardinals won the 2011 World Series and though that team's Hall of Fame manager, Tony La Russa retired immediately after, it's only fitting that he be tabbed to manage the NL All Star team in 2012. According to the linked article describing La Russa's appointment, this is the first time a retiring manager has managed an All Star Game since John McGraw did so in the 1933 classic. It's a fitting tribute and will provide a symmetry of sorts as this will be La Russa's third NL All Star manager appearance equaling the amount of times he did so as an American League manager. 

The announcement could lead to some interesting results for the National League team when they play as the visiting team in Kansas City this July. Since this is La Russa's last shot at holding the reins in the dugout, expect the unexpected. What follows is a peak at some of the things you could see.

• After facing two batters in the first inning, Clayton Kershaw is stunned to see La Russa on his way to the mound. "But, Skip, I only faced two batters." La Russa responds by telling the pitcher that he doesn't like the match up.
• At some point in the contest, one of the NL outfield All Stars will play second base.
• Before the game, La Russa will not name the NL's closer. Jonathan Papelbon will still think it should be him.
• In the seventh inning, La Russa will set an All Star record for most pitching changes in an inning. The television network broadcasting the game will be delighted with the three extra commercial breaks.
• With his new gig in the MLB front office, La Russa will instantly punish an umpire who makes a bad call. Don't be surprised to see one of the men in black doing push-ups on national television.
• When La Russa presents the line up card to the home plate umpire before the game, the umpire will be embarrassed to tell La Russa that pitchers no longer hit in All Star Games. La Russa sees all his double switches go up in smoke and will have to rethink the eighth place in the NL line up.
• At least one NL pitcher will make his only All Star Game appearances as a pinch runner.
• Tony will mess with Ron Washington's mind by having a pitcher in the on deck circle. Washington will hastily make a pitching change and La Russa will cackle like a hyena.
• If the game goes into extra innings, the game will have to be called because Tony will run out of players as Charlie Manuel refuses to let La Russa play Cliff Lee in left field.
• Yadier Molina will catch the entire game.
• Ryan Braun will be given the sign to sacrifice a runner to second. When Braun swings anyway, he'll deny seeing the sign.
• Joey Votto will stew in the dugout after playing two innings while Lance Berkman plays the other seven.
• Tony will intentionally walk Albert Pujols twice, Miguel Cabrera once.
• Prince Fielder will not face a right-handed pitcher.
• After Yu Darvish accidentally knocks down Jimmy Rollins with a pitch, La Russa will instruct his pitcher to knock down Derek Jeter. When the benches clear, La Russa will get in the pitcher's face and call him, "Yu Devil."
• At least one squirrel will interrupt the game.

Hey, this will be one All Star Game we won't sleep through. Can't wait!

Betemit a Step in the Wrong Direction for O's

Wilson Betemit's bat is a mirage. There. Glad we cleared that up right in the first sentence. At least now you know the tone the rest of this piece will take. Oh, perhaps as a stopgap for a season, Betemit could be at least useful now and then. But two years with an option? Oh dear. That's not a good idea. Friends, there is a reason why the Orioles will be Betemit's seventh team in his now ten year career. He'll wear out the welcome mat before you can say, "Defense." His last name is one of the best oxymoron names in baseball. He most certainly isn't a better mitt. Is he even a betebat?

How does this signing make sense for the Orioles? The deal gives the Orioles two of the worst fielding third basemen in baseball in Betermit and Mark Reynolds. So which one plays third and which one is the designated hitter? Perhaps Reynolds can play first. But then you still have a lousy glove over at third. We'll concede that Mark Reynolds has some really good power and can give you a lot of homers. But the strikeouts choke his value. Betemit looks like a decent offensive player the last two seasons, but consider that his BABIP over the last two seasons have been .361 and .391 respectively. If Betemit hit line drives higher than the average hitter, you might accept that explanation.  But his line drive percentage has been 14.8 and 19.3 in the last two seasons.

Wilson Betemit is one of those players that makes you scratch your head. How has his career lasted this long? There are four things you can do to have a long major league career:

1. Be a left-handed reliever
2. Be a utility infielder
3. Be a backup catcher
4. Actually be a good player

Betemit would fall under category number two. And yes, he can play multiple positions. But saying that, wouldn't you at least want that sort of player to be somewhat decent at doing so? Omar Vizquel he ain't. The Orioles, it seems, have been fooled by his offensive numbers the last couple of years. And granted, they look pretty good. His OPS+ the last two seasons have been 141 and 117. What's wrong with that? His OPS in high leverage situations last year was an astounding, .974. So he's a great clutch hitter, right? This writer maintains that it's a fluke. His career OPS in such high leverage situations is .794. Not bad, but it it includes last year and certainly makes last year look fluky.

Look, this writer knows that WAR isn't the be all and end all when considering players. But the stats show that Betemit is not good defensively, not good on the base paths and has compiled the grand total of 3.3 fWAR in his ten seasons and 3.7 bWAR. If you want to take a one year flier on such a player, that's okay. But a two year deal with a third year option? Are you crazy!? This Fan has been wrong before and will certainly be wrong again. But from this perch, the Orioles have to be out of their minds to make such a deal.

Say Me, Say You, Bobby Abreu

Despite rumors to the contrary last night on Twitter (And rumors went bananas last night), Bobby Abreu is still a member of the Angels and according to the wonderful website, MLB Depth Charts, Abreu is still penciled in to the Angels' starting line up as this seasons' Angels designated hitter. That could change, of course, with a trade or if the Angels decide to eat the last year of Abreu's contract. Abreu is now 37 years old and his presence along with the erstwhile, Vernon Wells, effectively blocks prospect Mike Trout from the starting line up and perhaps the opening day roster. Such is life for Bobby Abreu that his relative worth will be debated for the next couple of weeks. It won't be much different than the rest of his career.

There will come a time when Bobby Abreu retires. Perhaps it will be after this year when his contract ends. Perhaps not. But the end will come someday and when it does, there are sure to be wide discussions of his career. Some will point to his eye-popping career slash line: .293/.397/.481, good for a 129 OPS+ (according to baseball-reference.com). Those same supporters will point to Abreu's 393 stolen bases and 75 percent success rate. They could point out his 554 doubles, 58 triples and 1,412 runs scored.

But just as many will counterpoint that he only made two All Star teams in his sixteen years of play and was somewhat ineffective as an outfielder. Despite piling up great numbers with the Phillies, not many fans shed tears when he was traded to the Yankees in 2006. Nor were there many New York tears shed when that team let him walk away to the Angels after the 2008 season. And now there are grumpy Angels fans that Abreu is still a member of their team heading into 2012. It's not Abreu's fault that the Angels signed him to a contract that in hindsight was two years too long. Abreu certainly earned his keep in 2009 and 2010. But he didn't come close last year.

What makes perfect sense is that Bobby Abreu's nearest comp on baseball.reference.com is Bernie Williams. Both players had similar career numbers. Both were better offensive players than defensive players. And both cause a lot of heartburn among writers and fans as to their relative career value. Williams' defense cost him more WAR than Abreu's tally according to Fangraphs. But B-R has them much closer.

Bobby Abreu, if he remains with the Angels through the season, is not going to have a good PR season. And that's unfortunate. The Angels have painted themselves in a box with the atrocious Vernon Wells deal they took on by obtaining him from the Blue Jays. They have to play Wells to try somehow to justify what they will pay him the next couple of years. Abreu's on-base skills are much superior to Wells (in the understatement of the year). Since Wells has to play, if the Angels desire Abreu's on-base skills, he will be forever known to Angel fans as the guy who blocked Mike Trout (who everyone wants to see play in the big leagues).

And we can't leave Torii Hunter out of this discussion either. Hunter quietly (who ever talks about it?) has just as much of a dead contract as Wells. Hunter is going to make $18 million this season and there's no way he'll ever earn it. For those counting such things, that's $39 million committed to three guys who probably shouldn't be in the line up instead of Mike Trout. Hunter and Wells will play because of the money. Abreu becomes the expendable one and he might still be the better offensive player of the three. Abreu can't win no matter what he does. Either he's traded or cut, or he's reviled for blocking a prospect.

It's a fitting problem for a player that has caused so much debate in his career and will after it's over. Bobby Abreu might have been a superstar for two seasons. But he has been a very good player for his career. He is probably not a Hall of Fame player. But in a day and age of on-base mania, he's Exhibit A for how to do it.

Failure in Sports

Failure once again raised its hairy head in national sports. Both conference championships were decided by the failure of two players. Billy Cundiff yanked a chippy field goal left to end the Baltimore Ravens' season and just a few hours later, Kyle Williams fumbled a second punt--this one in overtime--which allowed the New York Giants to kick the game winning field goal. Ironically, the Giants' winning kick was the same distance as Cundiff's miss.

Failure is the dark side of sports. But failure is also the single element that defines sports. For every team that wins, another loses. On an individual level, the heroics of one man or woman is only possible by the failure of another. The recorded winner of the 500 metres speed skating even was Uwe-Jens Mey. But that race is much more known as the race Dan Jansen fell down just days after his sister had died. Jansen would fall again in the 1000 metres race.

The 1978 playoff game to settle the American League East champion pitted the New York Yankees against the Boston Red Sox on October 2, 1978 in Fenway Park. The game will forever be known for Bucky Dent's improbable three run homer. But everyone knows that pitch was thrown by Mike Torres who gets saddled by history as the failure of that game.

But he wasn't alone. The score was 5-4 heading into the bottom of the ninth. The usually reliable Goose Gossage had already given up two runs to tighten the game to its eventual score. And he was on the ropes again in the ninth. The Red Sox got two men on base but had two out. Hall of Fame player, Carl Yastrzemki came to the plate and could push the Red Sox to the post season with a hit. Yaz had already hit a homer and drove in another run with a single in the game accounting for two of the Red Sox' four runs. For Red Sox fans everywhere, Yaz failed them as he popped weakly to the foul side of third to end the game and the season for his team.

The defining poem of sports,  Casey at the Bat, has its ultimate moment in the failure of Mighty Casey that sent the citizens of Mudville home unhappy. The resonance of the poem for generations was the failure. Yaz became Mighty Casey. Billy Buckner will forever be known for the Mookie Wilson grounder that went through his legs. Mitch Williams blew the save that gave Joe Carter glory and the Toronto Blue Jays their second straight World Series crown. Failure is more poignant than success and is remembered much longer. The most memorable hole of golf ever played will be Jean Van de Velde's 72nd hole in the 1999 British Open. Does anyone remember who actually won that tournament?

In no sport is failure more built into the sport than baseball. The best hitters fail sixty percent of the time. The best teams lose nearly forty percent. The best pitchers ever lost thirty percent of the time or more. And the game is only decided when the last three outs are made. Three failures end every game.

Kyle Williams and Billy Cundiff are to be pitied and not exploited. They aren't the firsts and they won't be the last. Before Cundiff, there was Gary Anderson, Scott Kaeding and of course, Scott Norwood. Yes, they failed. Someone had to do it.

Number 2,500

We Americans are a funny and stubborn people. We have this abject fascination with multiples of five or ten. That's why we fly in the face of world pressure to move to the metric system. It's also why it would take a major shift in our belief systems to move away from the dollar and go to some other form of world money. The love of fives and tens probably comes from our monetary system. When earning that daily one-hundred cents becomes so important, then it's only natural that all of our comfort level comes from five and ten. It's also why 493 homers is a bummer but 500 homers is terrific. It's why we celebrated Jim Thome and Derek Jeter in 2011. 3,000 and 600 just tickles us in all the right places.

And it's also why the last post (about Michael Morse) was number 2,499 on this site and this one is so much cooler because it's number 2,500. The writer here understands that it's an arbitrary number and yet it feels like a milestone. Two-thousand, five hundred posts. That's pretty sweet. Very few of them have been of the short variety like so many other blogs out there. This writer doesn't visit too many of those sites. If you are only going to give a paragraph or two to read, might as well go somewhere else. The posts here are rarely as long as a Joe Posnanski post, but then whose is? 

This site started in 2003. The writer wrote a lot that first year and then just tinkered around for four years (life got busy) until becoming an obsession starting in 2009. Two-thousand, one-hundred and nineteen posts have come since the start of that year. It's weird going back to the beginning. The posts didn't even have headings. The first post was about David Wells. The second included immortal players like Tony Bautista, Pokey Reese and Brian Jordan. Well, Jordan was kind of cool. We've come a long way, baby.

It must have been in 2009 that the posts became mostly told in the third person. This author likes it that way. It's harder to pull off and most think it pretentious. But it goes back to journalistic underpinnings. Real journalists never wrote in the first person. Bloggers get such a bad rap and a lot of that is deserved. If we want to be taken seriously, then we need to consider ourselves as journalists first and fan-writers second.  That doesn't mean that most of this writer's favorite blogs aren't written in the first person. They are. It's simply a personal choice.

A lot of gratification is taken by the growth of the site in the last year and a half. With a large circle of "friends" on Twitter and a positive association with Yardbarker, the amount of readers that have come this way is astounding. Of course, it doesn't hurt that the site is now 2,500 posts deep either. Just about every search word a baseball fan can type in Google has been covered here. Even so, it will always be a total surprise that so many people come here to read what this writer has to say. To be sure, there is much thanksgiving for those that do. So thank you.

There has been a lot of discussion on Twitter lately about "blogging" versus "writers." The issue seems to come to a head around credentials given by major league clubs. Different teams handle this new world uniquely. The Mets are very open to credentials while the Yankees are very closed. To this writer, the Yankees need to wake up and smell the coffee. Electronic writing is where reporting is going. Even beat writers and newspaper guys are bloggers. The world is a much smaller one and anybody who can type can be a star. Not that it will matter here. Credentials are not even a consideration when you write in a basement in Maine on the next to last stop on Route One before hitting Canada. The Montreal Expos used to be the closest team to this location. Boston is eight or nine hours away.

This writer's grand vision is to be scooped up by a major site. That's long been the goal. But if that doesn't happen, there will still be contentment with tens of thousands of readers each month and a topic that never gets old. Baseball is the greatest sport on earth and writing is so much fun every day. Whether looking back, or forward or at what is going on today, there is always something interesting to talk about. That's shared by the dozens of sites this author visits every day. It never gets stale.

So, yeah. 2,500. That's pretty cool. For some stupid reason, it's more cool than 2,499. Such fat round numbers cause us Americans to celebrate and look back. It's how we're wired. This Fan is no different. Thanks again for the sweet knowledge that you come here often and spend a little of your precious time. Hope we're all around to see 5,000 together.

The Cool Story of Michael Morse

Close your eyes if you will and picture Michael Morse in your head. Got it? Okay, does that look like a shortstop? No, right? But that's what he was drafted as way back in 2000 (third round by the White Sox) and that's where he played his first six years of his ten-year minor league career. The easiest thing to state in this entire piece will be that Michael Morse doesn't fit anywhere on the diamond. He was too big as a shortstop. He played some third base. He's played first. He's played in the outfield. In 2006, Morse got a cup of coffee with the Mariners. He played six different positions (if you include DH). There's no real way to hide him. But boy can he mash a baseball!

His story is fascinating. He comes from Fort Lauderdale, one of this writer's favorite places on earth. He played for the Davie, Florida high school team, one of the best Florida towns on earth. He was drafted by the White Sox, traded to the Mariners and traded to the Nationals straight up for Ryan Langerhans (how did that turn out, Seattle?). During his long wanderings around minor league baseball, he tore his labrum diving for a ball against the Angels. He tore a meniscus that cost him most of 2008. He was suspended for using PEDs. Seattle converted him away from short because they had Yuniesky Betancourt. Yeesh. And it's not like he tore it up in the minors. His lifetime slash line there was, .271/.330/.425. So where did this come from?

Oh sure, you can point to the PEDs and say that was it. But that was way back in 2005 and to be sure, his tests have been scrutinized ever since. So don't throw that accusation around. It seems that he came back with a vengeance after his lost 2008. He mashed the ball in the minors in 2009 and though he started slowly in 2010, the Nationals called him up May 16th of that year and he's been killing the ball for the Nationals ever since. He loses value with his defense and base running, but with the bat, he was terrific in 2011. He was tenth in ISO, fifteenth in wOBA, tenth in slugging, nineteenth in batting average, thirteenth in wPA and seventh in home run per fly ball percentage.

He was remarkably consistent in 2011. Morse had a .879 OPS at home and .937 on the road. He had an .886 OPS in the first half and went at a .935 clip in the second half. His OPS against left-handed pitchers was .892 and it was .915 against right-handed pitchers. He started slowly in April and finished slowly in September but was fantastic in all the in-between months. He ruined the Phillies' rotation to the tune of  a 1.170 OPS. His OPS was over one against the Cardinals, Dodgers, Astros, Brewers and Rockies. Three of those teams were in the playoffs. Only nine of his thirty-one homers were pulled. Eighteen of them went to center and nine went to the opposite field. Sixty-seven of his 158 hits were for extra bases.

If there is any knock against Morse besides his fielding and base running, it has to be his plate discipline. He struck out 21.9 percent of the time (136 total) and walked only 6.3 percent of his plate appearances. He had only 31 non-intentional walks all season. But he does get hit by pitches regularly. He was hit thirteen times last season. He swung at 34.8 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. That's a lot. And that number is right in line with his career line, so it's not like he's going to change.

So where does he go from here? The Nationals just signed him to a two-year deal (avoiding arbitration) worth $10.5 million. Morse was worth $15.1 million last year alone, so that could be a steal. Three projection systems have him regressing slightly, but not by much. So projectionists are somewhat bullish on him being a force in the Nationals' line up for the future.

Michael Morse has hit 46 homers in his last 788 at bats. Home runs are back to being a premium commodity. The "Beast" has basically come out of nowhere at a later age than most. In a career that has a lot of twists and turns, it's hard to root against the guy. It will be very interesting to see if he can continue to be this good a hitter going forward. This Fan will be watching his boxscores in earnest.

Justin Masterson - The One That Got Away

The date was July 31, 2009 and it was the last day of that season's trade deadline. The Boston Red Sox needed a boost to help that season's playoff chances. And so on that deadline day, the Red Sox pulled the trigger on a deal with the Cleveland Indians for Victor Martinez. In return, the Red Sox sent Justin Masterson, Bryan Price and Nick Hagadone. Martinez performed admirably for the Red Sox and they did indeed make the playoffs but were swept in the first round by the Angels. Martinez had another good season for the Red Sox in 2010 but the Red Sox failed to make the playoffs. The Red Sox had little to show for their year and a half rental of Martinez and perhaps have given up one of the rising stars in the American League.

Justin Masterson had a much better 2011 season as the anchor in the Indians' rotation than most people realize. He finished with a 12-10 record for his 33 starts which is yet another reason why a pitcher's win-loss record is meaningless. According to Fangraphs' valuation methods, Masterson was tied for being the sixteenth most valuable pitcher last season. The guys he was tied with? Cole Hamels, James Shields and Daniel Hudson. That's pretty good company. Just think if Masterson had been in the Red Sox rotation last September when they sank faster than a leaky rowboat!

And the good news is that Masterson is only going to be 27 in 2012. He showed all the signs that he is going to be a star for the Cleveland Indians for years to come. Perhaps getting to learn on the job with the Indians over the past three seasons has allowed Masterson to reach his full potential. Seriously out of contention in 2009 and 2010 allowed the Indians to have patience with Masterson to give him room to grow. Those first two seasons weren't pretty as Masterson went 7-20 with a WHIP over 1.5. And the patience paid off beginning with the second half of the 2010 season. Despite his final record in 2010, Masterson cut his walks down in the second half of that season and he carried that even further into the 2011 season. His 2.7 walks per nine innings in 2011 along with an improved 2.43 strikeout to walk ratio were easily the best of his career.

But the good news doesn't stop there. Statistics show that Masterson's change up became a much better pitch in 2011 and now all three of his pitches are in the plus category. He only allowed eleven homers all season for a sparkling 0.5 homers per nine innings, again, the best of his career. Batters had a total OPS against him of .667 with a slugging percentage of .349. No matter how you judge pitching, he was terrific. If you like holding on to ERA, that was 3.21. If you prefer FIP, that was 3.28. xFIP? 3.64. SIERA? 3.68. tERA? 3.53. ERA+? 128. It's all good across the board.

Going deeper into Masterson's numbers, you have to love the way he gets batters to hit ground balls. His ground ball percentage of 55.1 percent in 2011 was just below his career average and for his career, he induces two ground balls for every fly ball he allows. Showing that Masterson is hard to square up, his lifetime line drive percentage sits at only 16.7 percent for his career. And he also increased the number of infield pop ups in 2011 pretty significantly (9.1 percent compared to a career rate of 6.4). Perhaps the real key to his success was that Masterson increased the contact rate on pitches out of the strike zone. His 70.7 percent contact rate on those pitches was up almost eight percentage points of his previous best season.

After all is said and done, so far all three projections for Justin Masterson for 2012 show a regression of his 2011 numbers. That's hard to understand. Perhaps that is a reflection of a ground ball pitcher pitching in front of a notoriously bad infield. Asdrubal Cabrera rated as the worst fielding (qualifying) shortstop last season. Jason Kipnis at second, came in with a -5.6 fielding runs. If Carlos Santana continues to play first as often as he catches, that won't help either. At least Lonnie Chisenhall over at third base seemed above average with his fielding stats last season.

Even so, it's this writer's opinion that Justin Masterson will not regress and that he'll continue to improve and will be one of the best pitchers in the American League in 2012. He shows all the signs of an emerging star and if this writer is correct, then he will continue to be the pitcher that got away for the Red Sox. And now that the same Victor Martinez is lost for the season for the rival Tigers, Masterson will have a lot to say about whether the Indians can compete in the AL Central this coming season. Oh, and by the way, Nick Hagadone has great stuff as a lefty reliever and might also be a big key for the Indians. It should be fun to watch.

BBA Link Fest - General Aviation

Our writers in the General Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance have taken flight for another week of terrific posts. Like we do every Thursday here in the FanDome, what follows are links to pieces around the country and around the world. Please be so kind as to click the links. Our writers would be much obliged. But more than that, you'll enjoy yourself on this wintry January day.

First up, we all want to congratulate Michael Clair on his Old Time Family Baseball "blogathon" this past weekend. Working for a great cause, Michael went the distance for 24 hours and then followed that up with some great guests posts from a whole slew of writers. Most importantly, the blogathon was a rousing success and Michael met his contribution goal. Thanks to everyone in helping make that possible. Apparently, Michael doesn't require sleep as even after his big weekend, he keeps churning out content like this.

Secondly, we have a brand new member this week! We'd like to welcome Justin Jabs and his Baseblog. Check out his recap of the past year in Tampa Bay Rays bobbleheads. Very cool.

Meanwhile, over at his X-Log site, Michael Cardano doesn't think Tim Lincecum is $6.5 million better than Cole Hamels. Agreed!

Scott Annis over at Through The Fence Baseball tells us why Pablo Sandoval's new contract is great for the Giants.

Hehehe. Sully over at Sully Baseball compares Yankee fans to the fans of the Twilight movie series. Oh, that Sully...

In a fantastic post, Replacement Level Baseball Blog gives us the All-Harmony Game in honor of Martin Luther King Day.

Bill over at The Platoon Advantage is back to being @Bill_TPA after roaming the earth as Saber Boy for a while. But he's still writing like a super hero. Here's his great piece on Jamie Moyer and links him back to Babe Ruth!

In somewhat a break in form, let's celebrate our friend, MTD, from Off Base Percentage who had a great guest post on the great Baseball Prospectus. Way to go, Mr. Lloyd!

Chris Papas of NumberOneBaseball takes us back to the beginning. Check it out.

Over at MLB Reports, Doug Booth has a cautionary tale for those considering Prince Fielder. Great post! The Fan wrote a post a long time ago but can't find it now that postured that big guys have at best eight good years in them.

Andrew Martin of MLB Dirt has a terrific article and interview with Anthony Ranaudo, the Boston Red Sox prospect.

In one of the Fan's favorite posts of the week, Left Field gives us the greatest leftfielders not in the Hall of Fame. Super!

If you love baseball trivia, you've got to check out Theo's latest quiz. Love these and also check out his work on retired numbers and help him pick the next team he should do over at Hot Corner Harbor.

A pitcher's daughter was on American Idol! The Hall of Very Good gives us all the details. Cool! And, golly, can that gal sing the National Anthem!

Grubby Glove is bored with Bud Selig and isn't celebrating Selig's recent extension by MLB.

Dee Clark's great prospect series on The Golden Sombrero has been terrific from beginning to now. But the latest one on Jesus Montero cut this Fan's heart in two. Sigh.

Curley Bender over at Crum-Bum Beat calls Kerry Wood the post-modern Mr. Cub. Great post and the spot on.

Our friends across the sea at MajorBaseball.fr comment on the Yu Darvish deal. 

The Baseball Index has a great breakdown of the Seth Smith deal.

The OCP over at For Baseball Junkies gives us one of the best Montero-Pineda analysis this Fan has yet seen. Great job.

In another great post, Dugout 24 presents five myths about baseballs. 

TheNaturalMevs of Diamond Hoggers doubts that 2K Sports can ever make a great baseball game.

In a timely piece, Mario Salvini of Che Palle! talks about Jackie Robinson.

The always terrific Blaine Blontz gives us the scoop on the latest Fidel-ity over at Call to the Pen. What is a Fidel-ity? You'll have to read this Fan's post on new baseball lingo. Heh. Shameless Self Plug there.

The Post of the Week this week goes to Baseballism for a great post on Paul O'Neill!

Ryan Sendek of Analysis Around the Horn has a great reply to another post on things the Pirates should be doing. Read both the original article and Ryan's response. Both are terrific. 

And finally, the Fan leaves you with one terrific piece of note, this one on 85% Sports on Roy Halladay. Truly superb. And love the wordplay in the post's heading.