A Little Story About Hal Kelleher

I received a comment a few days ago on an old post of mine about the worst batting games of all time. It was fun to read the old post and see that I used to be a pretty darned good writer. Upon reading the post, the thought struck me about who pitched the worst relief outing in history. What relief outing was so bad that it blew the doors off the game. Once I had an idea of how to proceed, I kind of fell in like with one of our main characters. Before we get to him, let's look at some lists.

Just like the worst batting game of all time, I figured the best way to approach the worst relief appearance was the same way I approached the worst batting games. It is not enough to simply come into a game and just ralph all over the place with runs galore. The failure has to mean something too. The former would be like a position player coming in to pitch in a 15-2 game and getting hammered so it was then 21-2. The way I feel to measure the latter is by either WPA (Win Probability Added) or RE24 (Base-out Runs Saved). I quickly learned that the latter would not work here.

My criteria is a relief appearance of an inning or less and there were four relief efforts in history that scored over -10 in RE24. They were:

1. Hal Kelleher - May 5, 1938:  -11.491 RE24
2. Reggie Grabowski - Aug 4, 1934:  -10.404 RE24
3. Pete Appleton - Aug 10, 1930:  -10.391 RE24
4. Travis Harper - June 21, 2005:  -10.070 RE24

Kelleher came into his game with his team already behind, 8-2. Grabowski's team was losing, 10-4, when he came in to his massacre. None of Appleton's eleven runs were earned (how is THAT possible?). Only Harper's game mattered as his team was a run ahead when he entered the game and gave up his memorable four homers to the Yankees.

No, this stat seems to measure what a pitcher does with men on base and is not about the game situation. Again, we can call the most runs allowed in an inning the worst inning of pitched baseball. But I maintain that you have to add into that equation how important the butt-kicking was in the scheme of the game. So let's look at WPA.

There have been eight relief outings that were so bad and at such a bad time that they were worth more than a negative Win all by themselves. In other words, the Win Probability Added was worse than -1. As you can imagine, most were blown saves or wins.

1. Paul Derringer - Sep 8, 1937:  -1.237
2. Mark Davis - Jun 8, 1989:  -1.229
3. Pete Ladd - Sep 18, 1983:  -1.212
4. Jeff Brantley - Jul 16, 2000:  -1.099
5. Alfredo Aceves - Aug 23, 2012:  -1.078
6. Brandon Lyon - Apr 7, 2009:  -1.057
7. Ron Davis - Apr 20, 1986:  -1.052
8. Todd Jones - Jun 1, 2007:  -1.014

All the dates on both lists are linked so you can go look at the game's boxscore yourself if you'd like. Both lists compiled using baseball-reference.com List tool

Both Derringer and Mark Davis blew a lead in the bottom of the ninth and then blew another lead in the bottom of the tenth! Pete Ladd, pitching for the Brewers came into the eighth inning against the Orioles with a three-run lead. Ladd allowed all of his inherited runners to score and then some as Eddie Murray hit a grand slam to put the Orioles up. The Brewers rallied to tie the game in the ninth only to have Ladd give up a walk-off single to John Stefero.

In a wild interleague game between the Yankees and the Phillies, Andy Pettitte started and was bombed out. He was rescued in a good outing by Doc Gooden and the game went back and forth. The Phillies had a 6-1 lead heading into the bottom of the ninth. The Phillies' Steve Schrenk and Bryan Ward quickly made a mess of that and Brantley came in with the bases loaded and needed to record one out to seal the victory. He could not do it as he gave up a single to tie the game before getting the third out. The Phillies took a two-run lead in the top of the tenth off of Mariano Rivera, but Brantley did not retire a batter in the bottom of the tenth. A walk, a HBP and three straight singles sealed Brantley's and the Phillies' fate.

Aceves gave up the most runs on this list as the Red Sox had a big lead only to have Aceves cough it all up against Angels. Lyon's game was another where he as a pitcher gave up the tying run in the eighth and then blew the lead in the ninth. Ron Davis and Todd Jones spectacularly did the same to their teams in their games.

So these eight games would fit my criteria as the worst relief inning in history. But if you want to talk about pure runs allowed in a single inning, non-dependent on circumstances, you come back to Hal Kelleher, who gave up twelve runs in his one inning of work. He was tied a decade later by Bubba Harris of the Philadelphia Athletics against the Boston Red Sox. You may prefer to call these the worst inning of relief pitching in history and I would not argue.

If you want to go by multiple innings, four pitchers allowed fourteen earned runs in multiple inning relief outings. That is only two more than Kelleher and Harris gave up in just one inning. So I am less willing to go with any of those four.

Sometimes, doing this kind of list building can draw you to one of the characters on your lists. For me, Hal Kelleher is that guy. When I went to his b-ref page, his fiasco of a game was the last game of his MLB career. He had pitched parts of four seasons and made his debut for the Philadelphia Phillies on September 17, 1935 in a start against the Cincinnati Reds. Kelleher threw a complete game shutout.

I would lay great odds that he is the only pitcher in history to have a CG shutout as his first appearance and a twelve earned run appearance as his last. Of course, his season began in 1935 as a late season call-up. He pitched three times, all as a starter. His first two games were complete games. He won his second game but it wasn't as pretty. He did not get a decision in his third despite throwing seven strong innings. He looked like a pitcher with promise. But the story did not go that way.

I wanted to know this guy. So I looked at where he came from and what his birth date was. He was born in Philadelphia on June 24, 1913. That is a year earlier than what is listed on b-ref. His father, John, was the son of Irish immigrants and was a manager at a hosiery manufacturer and a former policeman. John owned a house on 23rd Street that was worth $8,000. That was pretty good for those days. This information comes from the 1930 US census report. Harold Joseph "Hal" Kelleher was 16 at the time and lived with his father along with five of his other grown siblings (a policeman, a plumber, a stenographer and two who were chauffeurs!)

Hal Kelleher was just twenty years old when he was signed by the Phillies as a hometown kid and was assigned to Hazelton of the New York-Penn League. All the records can tell us is that he pitched ten games with them in 1934 and he finished with an 0-2 record in 28 innings.

Kelleher opened the season with Hazelton in 1935 and pitched 215 innings, by far the most work in a season he would accumulate. He finished his season in the minors with a 13-15 record and a 4.83 ERA. Regardless of these pedestrian numbers, he was a September call-up and pitched relatively well. That he was a hometown kid probably worked in his favor.

Kelleher pitched with the Phillies for part of the season in 1936 and did not perform well. He had a WHIP over 2 in 44 innings of work and had a 5.32 ERA. His win-loss record was 0-5. The pitcher split the season in the International League playing for Baltimore (the Orioles). He was even worse there in 33 innings.

Despite the struggles, he remained with the Phillies for the entire 1937 season. He pitched in 27 games and compiled 58.1 innings. He started twice and usually made mop up appearances the rest of the season. The numbers were not pretty. He finished, 2-4, with an ERA over six. Still, his walks and hits per inning were down a bit from the previous season. Kelleher had a nice stretch from mid-July to the middle of August after a rough start of the season. But his finish was awful as he gave up multiple runs and three of his losses in his last four appearances of that season.

And still, the Phillies kept him to start the fateful 1938 season. Was it that hometown thing? Did he show some sort of promise in an unseen way? Who knows. His season started okay. He had a mop up five innings of a lopsided loss where he pitched five and a third innings and gave up only two runs.

His second outing went well. The Phillies faced the Boston Bees (managed by Casey Stengel) and lost, 3-1. Kelleher pitched a clean eighth inning to give his team a chance to come back in the top of the ninth. But they did not. Still, after two outings, his ERA was 2.84. His last four outings, however, did not go well.

His third outing did not credit a run against him, but he only faced one batter and walked him. It was in the 12th inning against Brooklyn and after two outs, fellow Irishman, Bill Hallahan loaded the bases on a walk, a double and an intentional walk. In came Hal Kelleher to face Buddy Hassett and Kelleher walked him to bring in the walk off run.

A day later, the Phillies were facing the Bees again and held an 8-7 lead to start the top of the seventh. Tommy Reis walked the bases loaded and Kelleher came in with those bases loaded and no outs. He walked Dom DiMaggio to tie the score and he was pulled. DiMaggio later came in to score thus charging a run to Kelleher. The Bees scored six times that inning to blow the game up.

Four days later, the Phillies were beating the Cubs, 6-3 in the eight. After Claude Passaeu struggled including giving up the third run, Hal Kelleher was brought in and once again, and for the third straight appearance, faced one batter and walked him. Al Smith was brought in and saved the Phillies and the game.

To recap, Hal Kelleher started the season with two good outings. Then faced one batter thrice in the span of five days and walked that batter each time. That brings us to the fateful last game of his MLB career against the same Cubs the very next day. As mentioned earlier, the Phillies were already losing, 9-1 when Kelleher entered the game in the bottom of the eighth. Here is the sequence from there:

Single, walk, single (run), force-out (run), single, walk, double (2 runs), single (2 runs), single (1 run), walk, single (run), strikeout (!), single (run), triple (2 runs), single (run), popup to the catcher.

It must have been tough to walk off the mound and to the dugout after that performance. Twelve runs on ten hits and three walks. All the runs were earned and it sent his season ERA to 18.41. Nineteen days later, the Phillies sold his contract to the St. Louis Cardinals and the hometown kid was gone.

He pitched 136 combined innings for the Cardinals two Double-A affiliates the rest of that season with mixed results. However, he only pitched sixteen total innings for the Cardinals' minor league teams and was terrible in 1939 and they cut him lose. But unlike what reads in his obituary, Hal Kelleher had a comeback of sorts.

To find out what Hal Kelleher was doing in 1940, we look at two documents: The 1940 census and his WWII draft card, also from 1940. The census shows that his sister, Helen, the stenographer, was now the head of the household in the same 23rd Street house in Philly. Though there are no pitching records for Hal for 1940, he is listed as a baseball pitcher for his occupation. Helen worked 52 weeks and made $1,000. Hal worked 32 weeks and made $1,800. Their father had died in 1932 and the mother was gone as well. Listed in the household along with two other siblings were Hal's wife, Agnes, and their young daughter.

The 1940 WWII draft card gives good information too. It lists Hal as working for Pep Boys! That company began in Philadelphia in 1929 and had not yet blown out to the company it is now, and thus Hal probably knew Manny, Moe and Jack! It also showed Hal to be six feet tall and 175 pounds with blue eyes and brown hair.

The draft status probably caused Hal some consternation and later that year, he began his career with the Philadelphia police department (according to his obituary). There is no professional record of Kelleher playing in 1940, 1941, 1942 or 1943. But his baseball-reference.com page shows he came back to play in the minors in 1944 for the Brooklyn Dodgers' minor league affiliate for the Interstate League.

It seems the time away did him good as he had an excellent season for the Trenton Packers. Kelleher went 12-7 in 19 games (a decision for every game!?) with a 2.53 ERA. He cut his walk rate way down and his WHIP was a terrific 1.089. The Dodgers never called him up.

He pitched again for the Packers in 1945 and then was sent to pitch in Montreal for the Royals of the International league. He did not fare as well as the season before. Combined, he went 7-10 in 155 innings. Kelleher did pitch to a 2.58 ERA for the Packers where he went 6-8. But he got lit up in Montreal, which was a higher league. And that was the end of that. His professional career was again over.

Hal Kelleher worked for the Philadelphia Police Department until 1964 and then qualified for retirement. He was stationed at the 24th and Wolf Street station. After his duties as a police officer, he worked as the District Supervisor for the Police Athletic League for six years and also worked as an athletic trainer at La Salle University. According to his obituary, he also worked for the Provident Mutual Insurance Company until he retired in 1976.

He retired to Avalon, New Jersey, a coastal community just north of Wildwood. He had twelve years of retirement and then died at Cape May Courthouse in the southernmost tip of New Jersey and was buried in Avalon. He was survived by his wife, daughter and had four grandchildren.

We tend to focus on the negative in sports and Kelleher certainly had a negative with the distinction of having the worst relief appearance in the history of baseball. But it also seems he lived a full and productive life beyond his baseball career.

Late Baseball For The Yankees

The hobbled New York Yankees managed to fly to California for a West Coast swing without bumping their heads with turbulence. It is a good start to what could be a promising trip. The first seven games consist of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of the West Coast of The United States and then the San Francisco Giants. The Angels are currently in last place with a 9-13 record. The Giants are in last place with a 9-14 record. Let's take a look at what is ahead.

The Yankees have announced JA Happ and Domingo German as the starters respectively for tonight and tomorrow. It is a little disconcerting that they have not announced who is pitching beyond that. Let us hope it is not that abomination called an "Opener," coming up this week. Gosh, that is so anti-baseball. But, whatever, Happ needs to get his act together and German needs to not lose his way when things get a little difficult. Mike Trout is back and he is always a factor. His On-Base Percentage is higher that most players' Slugging Percentage.

Right now, Trout and Tommy La Stella (I coulda been a contenda!) are about the sum of the Angels' offense. Tyler Skaggs will be back on Wednesday so the Yankees are fortunate to miss him for the first two games. Albert Pujols is doing pretty well for this geezer stage of his career. At least his OPS+ is over 100.

I always look for the player who has been really cold at the plate. Zack Cozart has been that guy. His current slash line looks like this: .102/.141/.119. Yeesh! Why do I look for the cold guys? Because the Yankees always seem to warm up such players. It happens every time.

The Yankees lineup looks like an away Spring Training game but this is the regular season. They have a chance though because the Angels cannot deliver a good pitching performance these days. Tonight, they face Matt Harvey and his 1.821 WHIP and tomorrow it will be Chris Stratton who has a shiny, even 2.000 WHIP. Translation, they have been getting cuffed around. The bullpen has not been effective with far too many walks. This is a pitching staff that coughs up a lot of dingers, walks too many people and does not strike out enough batters.

But still, you really have to worry about this Yankee lineup. It can be had right now. A split would not be a good outcome for this series. Just on pitching talent alone, the Yankees should win three of the games. But that is why they play the games, right, John Sterling?

The San Francisco Giants have been pitching well. The team's staff's only problem has been the home run ball. But the Giants' overall ERA is second in the National League. So far, the problem with the Giants has been offense. They are dead last in the National League in OPS and, of the regulars, Steven Dugger (who?) is the only one batting above .240. Brandon Belt has a decent OPS due to his four homers and nine walks, but is batting .213.

The Giant series could be a problem for the Yankees as they will have to let their pitchers bat and lose the DH (which, hopefully, will end some day). With their Triple-A lineup and strong pitching for the Giants, the team might really struggle to win games. A lot of 2-1 or 3-0 games could result from that three-game series.

The Yankees always have a difficult task with West Coast swings. It is fortunate that the first seven games will be against struggling teams. In the Yankees' current state, the only question is whether the team from the Bronx are catching teams when they are down or providing those teams with a rebound. The second week of the swing will come against the Twins and the Seattle Mariners. I'll talk about those series later in the week.

A Realistic View Of The AL East

The title might be more of a reach as biases will surely crop up here. The one thing that is realistic is that the American League East is nowhere near where anyone expected it to be. The Tampa Bay Rays have jumped the season and its AL East rivals to build a quick five-and-a-half-game lead on the second place New York Yankees and an eight-and-a-half-game lead on the last place Boston Red Sox. How many people saw that coming?

The Yankees' rough start can be (in part) attributed to injuries. No team in baseball has a longer list of disabled players (I will never use the newfangled IL thing, so sue me). The bullpen has not been as much of a strength as expected. Who knows what having a healthy Dellin Betances available at the start of the season would have meant for the Yankees. The offense has been spotty with too many regulars missing and 4-A players getting too many at bats. Then there is the Red Sox.

The Red Sox have started the season in a real funk. Is it a World Series hangover? Did the long post-season take too much out of the starting pitchers? They have some holes, particularly at second, third and behind the plate. Expecting Dustin Pedroia to be able to come back was a pipe dream and now the Red Sox are stuck with an over-the-hill Eduardo Nunez who is terrible in the field and Brock Holt who seems unlikely to repeat last year's career year.

And, finally, there are the Bay Rays who never seem to lose in a similar way the Red Sox never seemed to lose last year. The Rays were projected as a 90-win team and, frankly, I thought that was high. The projection has now shifted to 94 wins and a division title. A lot has gone right for them so far. They lead the Majors in hard hit balls and their offensive OPS is terrific. Pitching was expected to be good, but it has been REALLY good as has the bullpen. Add to all these things the Rays' defense and you have a winning formula.

But let's be realistic here for a moment and try to remain as unbiased as possible. I do not care what the numbers are saying (run differential, offense, pitching), the Bay Rays are not this good of a team. Heck, I'll eat those words if I am wrong, but I do not think I am. Why exactly?

First, look at the early schedule thus far. Yes, they opened the season with the Houston Astros and beat them three out of four. The Astros were not themselves those first four games. The Astros started the season with a slumbering offense. That offense has since woken up and they are playing dominating baseball again. If the Rays were to play THESE Astros, the results would be far different.

After the Astros, the Bay Rays have faced the dregs of the dregs of baseball teams. The Rockies are a bad baseball team. Then they played the Giants, another bad baseball team. Those two teams are going to spar for last place in the NL West. Then they played the White Sox, another team that is not going anywhere. Then, to bring us up to date, the Rays have played five games against the Blue Jays and the Orioles. To recap, they had two series against the worst two teams in the NL West, a series against an also-ran in the AL Central and the two worst teams in the AL East.

The Rays' schedule stays somewhat soft until June. They do have two series against the Red Sox coming up, but those games are sandwiched around two series against the Royals. The other thing to look at is who the Rays are winning with on their roster. Their offense consists of a bunch of guys who they assembled and it has all miraculously worked. Ji-Man Choi? Brandon Lowe? Yandy Diaz? Austin Meadows? These guys have no track records. Are they this good? All of them? We'll see.

Plus, the only serious injury thus far is to Joey Wendle, last years ROY candidate. Ian Snell broke his toe, but he'll only miss one start. The Rays have zero depth. If anything happens to any of its players, they do not have replacements. The return to form of Kevin Kiermeier has been great and Tommy Pham was a good pickup as he has been an on-base machine.

I believe the Rays' pitching will hold up. But I do not believe in this offense over the long season. I still think that after all is said and done, they will be a 90-win team. That is good. Will it be better than the Red Sox and the Yankees?

Let's start with the Red Sox. Chris Sale will be better than he has started. He has been too good for too long to think otherwise. David Price will be fine. Nathan Eovaldi showed good signs last night of getting back to last year's form. The big question marks in the rotation are Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez. Porcello has had a very odd career where he has gone from Cy Young to terrible and back and forth. If this is another of those stinker years for him, that will hurt. Rodriguez still hasn't proved he can take his "stuff" to a winning level.

The offense will not be as good as last year, but it will be better than it is now. Mookie Betts is too talented not to think this is just a slow start. Andrew Benintendi is very good. Xander Bogaerts and Mitch Moreland will contribute meaningfully. JD Martinez is one of the best hitters in the game. The offense will be fine despite a black hole at catcher and at second. Rafael Devers is still only 22-years-old so who knows what he will be. Somehow, the Red Sox will find a second baseman and this offense will be fine.

Can they win 90 games? Yes, sure--even if it does not seem likely at the moment.

And then, there is the Yankees. Realistically, Aaron Judge has not gotten going yet. The jury is still out on Luke Voit long term. Gleyber Torres has been effective but can be so much better. Clint Frazier has found it. DJ LeMahieu has been a great pickup. Giancarlo Stanton will come back as will Gary Sanchez and the ball will start flying around the park again.

The Yankee bullpen will be fine even if Betances does not get back any time soon. Joe Harvey has been a nice find. It would do the bullpen good if CC Sabathia was treated as a five-inning "Opener" with Luis Cessa designated as his caddy (or Gio Gonzalez if they choose to go that route). The Rotation is not killer, but it is good depending on how well Domingo German can hang in there.

The bottom line? Can the Yankees win 90 games? Sure they can. Will they? I still think they will. The injuries sucked off several games of the team's original projection, but you would think things will have to improve on that front eventually.

The Bay Rays are not as good as they have appeared. The Yankees are not as mediocre and the Red Sox are not this bad. Injuries to the Yankees and the bad start by the Red Sox have guaranteed a three team race. But that is what it will be in the end. The Rays are not running away with the division, not in my humble opinion. But talk to me again in July and my perspective might be different.

A Cat Has Nine Lives - A Bird Is Not A Cat

I wrote during Spring Training about the need to resist hope about Greg Bird finally becoming the player Brian Cashman has kept saying he was going to be. Greg Bird had a great spring for the New York Yankees. There was a lot of talk from manager, Aaron Boone, and Cashman about Bird making a significant contribution to the Yankees. After yet another dismal start to Bird's season and his .555 OPS along with his failure to scoop up throws at first base, we now learn that Bird has a left plantar fascia tear and is out indefinitely. I have not been this shocked at either development since the days of Nick Johnson.

And really, that is a solid knock on Nick Johnson. Yes, Johnson had injury after injury and his career was never what it should have been. Johnson's one full season for the Nationals showed what a healthy Johnson could have been like. So, yes, Nick Johnson was a constant disappointment. But at least he produced at times when he was available. Except for Greg Bird's first 178 Plate Appearances for the Yankees in 2015, Greg Bird's production has been a black hole with scorched earth.

Sometimes I feel badly about writing such a piece. Greg Bird seems like a nice guy. He seems earnest and nice and it is not his fault that his legs have been a mine field since that 2015 season. And I am quite sure he was trying his hardest to perform better on the field than he has. Unfortunately, baseball is a business and it is about what you have produced lately and what you can be expected to produce in the future. And four years of history has shown us that he has about as much chance of being a "significant contributor" at some point for the Yankees as Jacoby Ellsbury.

It is time for the Yankees to cut the cord on Greg Bird just like they did with Nick Johnson years ago. The injury is unfortunate. The body of work, though, does not lie. And his spring did not fool any of  the smart folks who put together evaluations and projections. A .710 OPS was the highest projection he received. That is not anywhere close to what you want from a first baseman, especially a first baseman that is not very good at defending that position.

Bird's injury piles on to the Yankees' physical misfortunes thus far. But his injury is the least significant. That says something right there. Ben Heller on the DL hurts more right now than Greg Bird.

So what should the Yankees do when Greg Bird returns? That might not be a question that can even be answered right now. This particular injury is a terrible injury that could possibly end his season. He is listed on the injury report as, "No timetable for recovery."

If I were running the Yankees, I would totally and unequivocally dismiss Greg Bird from any future plans. If he comes back this year, he should either stay in the minors or be traded. Or he could be released. In some ways, Greg Bird has held first base hostage for the Yankees since Mark Teixeira's retirement and that should end immediately.

For the Yankees, it is an addiction that should be quit cold turkey. They have held onto, hoped and wrung hands that Greg Bird would take his sweet swing and become a star with the Yankees. It is not going to happen. Enough is enough and it is time to move on. I am still not convinced that Luke Voit is the answer. We will see how his season goes. Come on down, Mike Ford, whatcha got?

Personally, this Greg Bird addiction led against looking at a guy like Mike Moustakas, who has been killing the ball for the Brewers. For basically chump change, Moustakas could have stepped in at third when Miguel Andujar went down or he could have played first. Maybe Moustakas was not the answer. But something creative has to be done about the future of first base for the Yankees. Heck, Giancarlo Stanton would be a big target over there. I still think Stanton is a better player when he is not the designated hitter.

Nice guy or no, earnest or not, a Bird is not a cat. There is not nine lives and Greg Bird's Yankee lives are burned up. It is time to move on or at least let him try to move on someplace else.

Unbelievable Facts About Chris Davis

Chris Davis, the much-maligned, obscenely-paid first-baseman for the Baltimore Orioles established a record for batting futility that may never be reached again. Nobody has ever gone as many at bats in a row without a single base hit as Chris Davis has from the end of the 2018 season to today. The record is his alone and is the benchmark for putrid batting forever. But Davis' failure to hit is not a recent phenomenon. It actually goes back to the last month of the 2017 season. And the numbers are unfathomable.

I cannot grapple with my feelings about Chris Davis. A large part of me feels like I am piling on. Failure is no fun for anyone. At the same time, Davis is rich beyond his wildest dreams and will continue adding to that pile for years to come. I do not know. I guess mostly I feel badly for him.

The real problem for Chris Davis started in the last month of the 2017 season. His numbers were not great for the years 2014, 2016 and most of 2017. His batting average and strikeout rates were terrible. But his OPS+ hovered around league average for those years because of his walk rate and the decent power numbers. But then you get to the last month of 2017.

In that month, Chris Davis came to the plate a hundred times and he had 88 official at bats. He only had 14 hits and struck out 40 times. That works out to a .159 batting average, a .260 OBP and since he only had 29 Total Bases in 26 games, that worked out to a .330 Slugging Percentage. That gave him a .590 OPS for the month. Things have never improved since.

In 2018, Davis had arguably the worst batting season of all time. In 522 Plate Appearances and 470 At Bats, all Davis could muster was 79 hits and 41 walks. His season's batting average was .168. His On Base Percentage was .243 and his Slugging Percentage was a puny .296. His OPS of .539 was good for an OPS+ of 50 (100 is average) and rated a 46 in wRC+.

Let's add together the last month of 2017, all of 2018 and his zero for 28 start (with four walks) for 2019. That gives us a line of: 654 (PA), 586 (AB), 48 Runs, 93 Hits, 15 doubles, 20 homers, 59 RBI, 56 walks, 6 HBP and 247 strikeouts. What does that all add up to?  A .159 Batting Average, a .237 On Base Percentage and a Slugging Percentage of .287. His OPS for all of that would then equal .524. Wowzers! His strikeout rate would be 38%. Consider that his 247 strikeouts far outpaced his combined total of hits and walks by 98!

It gets worse the more you look at it. In 2018, Chris Davis had a .327 OPS in games considered Late and Close. That is lower than many batters' On Base Percentage! His OPS was .399 in what were considered High Leverage situations. He had a .484 OPS facing "Ground Ball Pitchers." His OPS against "Power Pitchers" was .463. His OPS against pitchers with an average fastball was .485. He had a .493 OPS against left-handed pitchers.

These are all bizarre numbers! Here is another one for you: Since 1867, Chris Davis' -2.8 rWAR was tied for the eighth worst baseball-reference.com WAR season total ever. Fangraphs.com came in with a -3.1 fWAR which would have ranked Davis' 2018 as the fourth worst all time. Chris Davis' 127 times on base last season was tied for the sixteenth lowest all time for a player with over 500 plate appearances. And it was the worst since Todd Cruz in 1982 playing for the Mariners. And his .168 Batting Average of a year ago is the worst all time for a player with over 500 Plate Appearances.

Those are all numbers for the 2018 season. He has big fat zeroes for 2019. So stretching back to the last month of the 2017 season, no one has batted lower than Chris Davis...ever!

And, I can guarantee you that none of the players worse than Davis in WAR in a single season ever made $23 million for doing so.

What would you do if you were the Baltimore Orioles. The team cannot keep running him out there, can they? The money is a wash. It is bye bye. There is no way they will get any value from the deal. And the deal runs three more years after this one! The Orioles should simply cut their losses. It is totally embarrassing for a team to have a national television cut in to see if Davis would break the futility record. And the networks got their money's worth. Chris Davis needs to be put out of his misery and the fans need to have closure on this legendary saga of batting garbage dumpage.

Thoughts After Six-percent Of The Yankees Season

The New York Yankees have played nine games of their 162-game season. To put any kind of emphasis on trends so far would be pushing the short sample size mantra to a throbbing level. Can anything be gained from such an early look at how things are going? With ten players on the disabled list (take that!) and three series against teams headed for "also-ran" status, it would seem even more absurd to take any pulse thoughts at this early point. For the sake of an exercise (and because I felt like writing), let's take a look at the Yankees after six-percent of their season has been completed. Take it all with a grain of salt.

After watching Aaron Judge all spring, I really thought he would put up a better strikeout rate this season. I have been disappointed that he is striking out at prodigious rates and at 38%, his strikeout rate so far is the highest it has been since his 2016 cup of coffee season.

Gary Sanchez does appear to be back as an offensive force with a bat in his hands. After his pathetic showing of a year ago, that is welcome news. However, he does still have his penchant for driving fans crazy with bonehead plays. Getting picked off third with the bases loaded and no out is forgotten by a barrage of homers. But it was the second day in a row of getting picked off.  The catcher looks better at blocking pitches behind the plate and is socking the ball. But, man, give us a week of smarts too please.

If you ignore his walk rate, Domingo German is doing a pretty good Luis Severino impression right now. The key will be how that translates to better clubs than the Tigers and Orioles.

For the first time ever, I do not seem to mind that Luis Cessa is on the roster. It feels weird.

I have a strong feeling that Aaron Hicks is the next Jacoby Ellsbury without the MVP season on his resume. The guy just cannot stay on the field. And after watching what a bad back did to Don Mattingly and David Wright, I am not optimistic at all.

Good or bad, Luke Voit is fun to watch. The guy is the "Everyman" on the Yankees who wears everything on his sleeve. I do hope he picks up the pace though!

Who would have thought the Boston Red Sox would have such a start after last season? And who would have thought that the Red Sox' rotation looks terrible and the bullpen looks great? But...:::pinch:::...it is only after the first three series of the season.

I predicted Gleyber Torres to have a great season and he is making me look good so far! Love that kid.

Thus far, the signs are pointing in favor of me falling in like with DJ LeMahieu. Gio Urshela is growing on me too.

How can you not smile for Clint Frazier? If Mike Tauchman starts another game, I might have to get an Aaron Boone voodoo doll. I'm just kidding! I would never wish harm or threaten harm on anyone! Whew! One has to be so careful about what is said these days.

The Yankees really need Dellin Betances. The bullpen is obviously one body short right now. Most of the bullpen regulars are getting the job done, but we are missing that guy to come in and blow people away. Plus, his absence forces Jonathan Holder to pitch multiple innings and he should be limited to one. I hope this late start doesn't mean no extension and walking papers for Betances after the season.

I cannot help it. A little part of me dies inside when Austin Romine starts a game. I cannot help it! I long for the Cervelli days...

Speaking of Jonathans, Jonathan Loaisiga is in the same mold as Severino and German, but cannot locate his fastball. If he could get a clue where it was going occasionally, he will be a terrific pitcher.

I have been thinking about Sonny Gray's complaint about being forced to throw sliders with the Yankees. I think he may have a point. Are there any Yankees pitchers that do not feature a slider? Tampa Bay for years preached the change up. The Yankees under Larry Rothschild, seem to preach the slider. Just something to keep an eye on.

I hope J A Happ's first two starts do not mean that he is an aging pitcher with his best years behind him. He has not looked great at all.

The first nine games have shown that Zack Britton is not yet all the way back from where he was. Maybe he'll never be that guy again. I think the Yankees are better off with him, but if he could put some command together, it would make the world of difference for the bullpen.

Speaking of bullpens, yes, it is early yet, but the Yankees' mercenary refusal to engage David Robertson looks like the right call so far. He was brilliant for the Yankees in 2017, but much less so last year. Chad Green looks like the new Robertson except that Green does not walk anybody.

As much as people love him, I still insist that Brett Gardner is over-the-hill now and should only be a reserve. The occasional walk and his long at bats are nice, but the reality is that both Greg Bird and Luke Voit have better OPS figures than Gardner. And those two are considered to be struggling! I would point out that Bird's current OPS is right where PECOTA pegged him to be.

I am not worried about James Paxton. He looks terrific.

The Yankees did not maximize their opportunity for a strong start against two bad teams to start the season. They need to hold their own against the Astros in Houston for three games and then have a great home stretch against good and bad teams before having to endure a West Coast swing. Nine games does not mean a whole lot. But currently sitting 5-4 feels a lot better than sitting 2-4 did. Onward!

Good Thing The Yankees Can Afford To Give Away Games

Perhaps I should not write this post right now. I should probably wait until I cool off. But I am just so angry I cannot contain myself. I am not a journalist. I don't have to be fair or partial. This is my page. So here it is. Why am I so angry? I am angry because the Yankee manager (probably on orders from above) is all about resting players. And so on any given night, the Yankees can decide that the strategy of resting players is more important than winning the game. I am thrilled that the Yankees are SO confident that they think they afford to throw away games to follow their resting strategy.

The Yankees just lost two key players yesterday. Both were cogs in their powerful lineup. So without Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar, the team is already without two of its best hitters. Gary Sanchez has hit homers the last two games. There has already been one day off this season in between the four games Sanchez has played. Well, the Yankees can afford to give games away, so you might as well rest Gary Sanchez. Right? After all, the stat people calling the shots say that resting players will boost their value output over time.

There is only one problem though. A loss in the standings does not overcome a Win or a percentage of a Win in WAR later on. That L in the loss column is never going to go away.

But Sanchez was not the only one. Greg Bird, who supposedly is a "different" hitter this year, was "rested" as was Troy Tulowitzki. Instead, Tyler Wade, Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman got to play. Until proven otherwise, they are Triple-A or even Four-A batters. . And, of course, we cannot forget to combine them with Austin Romine.

So you take a team like the Detroit Tigers, a team that will most likely lose 90+ games this season. And you field a lineup that makes you very similar to the Tigers on the field. Nice. Good move. What a joke.

And then you have the bottom of the ninth and you are trailing, 3-1, because your lineup cannot produce anything with those players and with only one chance left in the game, you let both Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman bat!? Incredible.

The goal of analytics should be to make sure your team has the best chance to win. If the decisions are counter-productive to that goal, then there is a problem. Rest a player once in a while. Personally, I do not think it is necessary. But please, for gosh sakes, do not rest them all at the same freakin' time! Despite what your logic tells you, the Yankees are never going to get this loss back.

The Yankees Best Laid Schemes...Go Awry

The title of this series of thoughts paraphrases the great poet, Robert Burns, whose words of 1785 still ring true today. Yankee fans had salivating thoughts coming into this season. The team was loaded with talent. The lineup was stacked. The pitching was led by an ace and a free agent brought in with the stuff of an ace. The rest of the rotation seemed solid. Many pundits and predictors positioned the Yankees as the team to beat. This was going to be fun! Wee! But then it started crumbling.

And it started fast. First there was the pitching ace, Luis Severino, who felt something pop in his shoulder before his first spring start. Then there was Aaron Hicks with a funky back. We should have all seen that coming. Hicks has had problems staying on the field his entire career. Is he another Jacoby Ellsbury?

Then the team lost Dellin Betances and that boom-boom-boom-boom bullpen lost a boom. CC Sabathia was always going to be a late start, so that was no surprise. Then the season started and the losses have mounted. Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar went on the disabled list on the same day! The latter might be looking at a season-ending surgery.

Combine it with the TJ surgery for Didi Gregorius and top-pitching prospect, Jordan Montgomery, and the Yankees currently have nine players on the disabled list. And no, I will never call it the Injured List. It has been the Disabled List for generations and Disabled List is what I will write. Sheesh.

So here we are four games into the season and a lot of the wind has already left the sails. One wonders about training in Florida in the warmth and then having to play in the bitter cold of New York City. Would Stanton and Andujar's injuries happen if this scenario had not happened? It is hard playing baseball in the cold. It is akin to playing golf in the cold. The swing is not free and easy. You are wearing layers instead of having free motion. Maybe the season IS too long and expecting teams to play in 36 degree weather is asking too much.

All these players could return and play a significant factor this season. But what if some do not? What if Severino never gets right without surgery? What if Andujar needs surgery and needs to miss the season? Nobody is going to weep for the Yankees or the team's fans. But, man, this is not how we all envisioned it.

If you look back to the most recent championship seasons for the Yankees (2009, 2000, 1999, 1998), you see teams with limited injury situations. Particularly with the starting pitching, the Yankees received 29 or more starts from at least four of its starters in every one of those seasons. The most a position player was lost to the team was typically for 20-25 games. But there were no major losses of talent that drained its fans of all color.

Did you watch the game last night? When Gleyber Torres came up flexing his thumb after whiffing on Gary Sanchez's throw, did you not expect the worse? I know I did. How much do you want to bet that he will be "resting" in tonight's game? By the way, that should have been his error and not Sanchez's. The throw was there and the runner should have been out. Sanchez has made some errant throws but that was not one of them and Sanchez looks MUCH improved on blocking balls in the dirt.

Well...our dreams of a dream season with a homer record and All-Stars at nearly every position have pretty much been dampened. But this team is not done. The Red Sox look considerably weaker as a team and Tampa Bay is not this good. If a couple of the replacements for injured players play well, the team can get through this early part of the season. It is too early to lose all hope.

It is just sad when things do not work out as hoped and players do not get the chance to shine as expected. Warm weather will come and some of the wounded will come staggering back. We will all just have to see how it goes.

             ***************************************************************

I should not be as negative about Greg Bird as I am. So I apologize right up front. But I remember watching the first game against the Tigers and Brett Gardner was on first and Bird was at the plate. Gardner stole second and I remember thinking, "That was a mistake," because it put Gardner in scoring position with Bird at the plate. It also freed the pitcher from really having to worry about what Gardner was going to do. The predictable happened and Bird looked awful striking out to end the inning.  Bird is simply useless with runners in scoring position. Just a small observation in three hours of baseball action.

Live Blogging The Yankees 2019 Opening Day

The best day of the baseball season is here. It is Opening Day and The New York Yankees will host the Baltimore Orioles. Mariano Rivera just threw out the first pitch! What can be better than that!? It is Masahiro Tanaka against an Oriole team that lost 114 games a year ago. But that Orioles team gave the Yankees more fits than should have occurred. The Yankees need to feast on teams like this.

And the first pitch from Tanaka! A ball. But two ground outs followed and then a single to right. It took a while for Tanaka to put away Trey Mancini, but Mancini's ground ball to the right hit the runner! When is the last time you saw that! Good sign? We'll take it.

Tanaka looked crisp and sharp and hit 93 on his fastball. He looks good. The Yankees are coming up!

Brett Gardner led off and got blown away by the Orioles starter, Andrew Cashner. One out. Aaron Judge lined a single (108 mph) through the right side! Yeah! Giancarlo Stanton lined a single to right. It was hit hard, but Aaron Judge still took third. Here we go! A 3-1 count on Luke Voit. Boom! Three-run homer to dead center! Wow! Miguel Andujar flew out to the wall in left for the second out. Gary Sanchez singled to right. Greg Bird struck out to end the inning. A great start!

I saw on Twitter that Robinson Cano homered in his first at bat for the Mets. That's cool.

Tanaka got a 1-2-3 strikeout to start the top of the 2nd. Another 1-2-3 strikeout for the second out. But then Chris Davis comes up. I have no idea why Yankee pitchers always get behind on this guy. The odds of him hitting the ball are so low. Davis went 3-0. Tanaka fought back to 3-2 and then struck him out. Super inning! Tanaka looks great. Or the Orioles look awful. You choose.

Gleyber Torres hit the first pitch he saw for a single. Troy Tulowitzki is up and I am rooting for the guy. Nuts. Tulo grounded into a 6-4-3 double-play.  Brett Gardner went ahead in the count, 3-1, but flew out to center. He is a quick 0-2.  End of two, Yankees, 3-0.

Tanaka started the top of the third with a ground out to short. Tulowitzki made his first play of the season at short. No problem. Tanaka then struck out Richie Martin who is making his MLB debut. Two out. Cedric Mullins bounced one over Tanaka's head, but Gleyber Torres made a nice running play to retire the side in order. It's time for da Judge.

With two strikes, Aaron Judge put the ball in play and hit a slow roller up the middle and got himself another single. Strikeouts are NOT okay. Contact is good! Cashner got ahead of Giancarlo Stanton, but in a great plate appearance, Stanton took a walk. Men on first and second, no outs with Luke Voit up. Voit walked on four pitches to load the bases. Miguel Andujar grounded into a double-play to short. Aaron Judge scored his second run of the season. Gary Sachez flew out to deep left and the Yankees finish with a 4-0 lead after three innings.

The age old argument comes to mind after that half inning. Do you discourage Andujar's natural aggressiveness and ask him to be more patient, or do you leave him alone?

Speaking of Andujar, Tanaka started the top of the fourth with a fly out and a ground out to second. Then a ground ball was hit over the third base bag. Andujar made a nice play on it and a strong throw that would have beat the runner if he had a decent fielding first-baseman. But Bird could not come up with it while stretching and Andujar was given an error and a runner was on second. A single highlighted the play as it plated the run before Tanaka was able to end things with a fly out to center and Brett Gardner.  I never, ever liked Mark Teixeira. But I sure miss his glove at first.

Greg Bird struck out for the second time. Yeah. Nothing has changed there. Gleyber Torres then hit a smash to third that bounced off the third baseman's chest. Torres was thrown out on a nice play. Tulowitzki then flew out to right.  End of four, Yankees, 4-1.

Chris Davis led off for the Orioles and (Surprise!) struck out for the first out. Sucre flew out to Judge in right (sweet! Get it?). Richie Martin flew out and Tanaka was through five with a 1-2-3 inning.

The Yankees started the bottom of the fifty with walks by Gardner and Judge and are, once again, set up. Those walks finished off Andrew Cashner. Cashner used to be a live arm with huge upside. Now he is mundane with no out pitch. Mike Wright came in to face Stanton. But he walked him and the bases are loaded with no out for Luke Voit. Voit was hit by a pitch to pick up his fourth RBI of the game. Miguel Andujar again flew out deep to left and plated Judge. Judge must lead the Majors in runs scored by now. Heh. Gary Sanchez served one to right but Rickard made a great play on the dive for the second out. Greg Bird looked at a strike right down the middle and then struck out looking to end the inning.

The two first basemen in this game are now 0-5 with five strikeouts and a no-play at first to cause an error and an unearned run. Sterling!  But the Yankees lead, 6-1 after five.

With Adam Ottavino warming in the bullpen, the efficient Tanaka did not seem to need any help. He recorded the first out on a comebacker. Tanaka then got rocked for a hit off the wall in right, but Aaron Judge played it perfectly and held it to a single. So impressive! Tanaka then induced a weak grounder to first. Bird made the safe play at first for the second out. His decision to not go for the lead runner cost the Yankees (and Tanaka) a run as the next batter rapped one to center. It appeared that Brett Gardner did not pick it up and it sailed over his head without even an attempt. Tanaka was taken out and on comes Ottavino to make his Yankees' debut in his home town. This should be fun!

And it was! Ottavino showed some great movement. But the batter did not bite out of the strike zone. The count went to 3-2 and then the new Yankee pitcher froze the batter with a 3-2 slider on the outside corner for the punch out. Tanaka's final line: 5.2 6 2 1 0 5 0. Both runs would not have scored with better defense. It was a good start to the season for Tanaka.

Gleyber Torres took a five-pitch walk to start the bottom of the sixth. Tulowitzki, who reminds me in looks of Fred Stanley, struck out on a foul tip. Brett Gardner flew out to right. Aaron Judge ended his perfect season by striking out.  End of six, Yankees, 6-2.

Ottavino had no problem in the top of the seventh as he struck out two of the three he faced. This guy is going to be fun to watch!

Giancarlo Stanton flew out to center for the first out in the bottom of the seventh. Luke Voit walked to remain perfect for the season. Andujar lined a single to center. Gary Sanchez had a thirteen pitch at bat but finally succumbed to a popup straight up the chute. But the catcher dropped the ball which resulted in a weird double-play to end the inning. Weirdness.  Yankees, 6-2 through seven.

Clarification: The popup was ruled an infield fly rule. But the runners did not stay put and thus were dead ducks.

Zack (notice the "K") Britton is on for the Yankees. A weak popup to center was the first out. Britton then walked Cedric Mullin. Drew Jackson pinch hit for his MLB debut for the Orioles. Jackson grounded to third and Andujar got the force at second for the force out. Kevin Villar singled on the ground through the hole at short. Gleyber Torres saved the day, though, with a brilliant play at second and threw out the batter from his butt. Nice!

Greg Bird was down 0-2 but hit a homer on a sweet swing to right-center. Gleyber Torres struck out on a 3-2 pitch. Tulowitzki drilled a double to left for a double and looked very emotional at second. It was a touching moment. Gardner grounded off the pitcher on a close play at first. Aaron Judge walked on four pitches. But Stanton ended the inning by striking out. End of eight, Yankees, 7-2.

Aroldis Chapman entered the game to finish things up for the Yankees in a non-save situation. He was greeted by Hanser Alberto who beat out an infield single. Chapman then struck out Joey Rickart on a well-located slider. Chapman is only throwing 94 mph. Renato Nunez flew out to center and the Yankees were an out away. A grounder to Torres finished it off and the Yankees had an Opening Day win.

Tanaka and the Yankees start the season, 1-0. Luke Voit starts the season with four ribbies and Aaron Judge scored three runs. A fun first game and the kind of game the Yankees need to play against competition against teams like the Orioles.

Tyler Wade Is Correct - He Got A Raw Deal

Tyler Wade did everything the New York Yankees asked him to do this spring. It was mostly assumed that he was going to be a part of the Opening Day roster. He worked on his offense and posted an .845 OPS for the spring. He played five different positions. He outplayed DJ LeMahieu. He had a higher OPS than Miguel Andujar. And then with a week to go until the start of the season, the Yankees acquired Mike Tauchman, installed him on the 25-man roster and punted Tyler Wade.

Wade said he felt blindsided. In a rare blip on the usual happy Yankees' news front, he said the following:

“It kind of blindsided me,” Wade vented to reporters, according to Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. “I was just trying to get ready because our center fielder (Aaron) Hicks…I don’t know when he’s coming back, so I was just trying [to be] ready for whatever was thrown my way and then it happened.” I didn’t think it was a problem,” Wade told reporters, according to Ackert. “Just the way that I performed this spring, I did everything they asked me to do. I played well. I made the adjustments offensively. Now it’s my defense that’s not good enough.”

I could not agree more. It would be one thing if the replacement for Wade was a homegrown product that outperformed him. It would be another thing if the player brought in has shown glimmers of success as a MLB player. But neither are the case.

It is obvious that Tyler Wade has not yet shown that he can hit in the Majors. His .468 OPS in 133 MLB plate appearances has been insipid to say the least. But this spring showed an inkling that Wade was putting it together and would not be an automatic out. Heck, anytime he hits the ball on the ground he has a chance.

While it is true that Mike Tauchman has put up great numbers in the minors--far better than Tyler Wade to be honest--Tauchman has also not yet shown he can hit MLB pitching. In 69 MLB plate appearances, Tauchman has burned it up with a .468 OPS, the exact same number as Wade! The big difference is that Tauchman got to hit in Colorado so his OPS+ is even lower than Wade's.

Let's be clear here, neither has put up any kind of sample size that would tell us anything. Tauchman is older than Wade. Tauchman is not fast like Wade and so is not as valuable as a pinch runner. And Tauchman's defensive metrics in his short sample size are not exemplary. To also be clear, I have no faith that LeMahieu is going to offer the Yankees very much other than making sure that more valuable hitters spend some games on the bench when they should be in the field.

The Yankees gave LeMehieu a lot of money for some reason. Yes, his second base defense would be valuable if he was going to be the every day second baseman. But Gleyber Torres is there and is a much better player and there is no history of LeMehieu succeeding in a utility role. His spring numbers were not promising.

Tyler Wade got the rug pulled out from under him after having no reason of concern for all of the spring. His spot was taken on the roster by a guy who is not as versatile and who likewise has not proved he can hit MLB pitching. It bordered on cruelty how it all worked out and no one should blame him for speaking out. Wade got a raw deal and there is no other way to describe it.

A Really Dusty MLB Crystal Ball-2019

For many years, this blog had produced an annual "crystal ball" list of predictions for the coming season. Somehow surviving three moves and years of inactivity, a very dusty crystal ball has been once again summoned to bring in the new year. What follows is not your scientific, analysis driven predictions based on playing 2,000 Strat-O-matic baseball games. It is an off-the-cuff look into an obviously hard to clarify crystal ball that has sat in the closet for far too many years:

• If he stays healthy, Yasiel Puig is going to have a monster year for the Reds, make the All Star team and be in the top five for MVP
• If he stays healthy, Aaron Judge will top Mookie Betts and Mike Trout for the 2019 MVP in the American League. Judge missed fifty games last year and still had as many WAR (5.1) as Fangraphs.com says he will have for a whole season in 2019. Wrong!
• Two of the top three pitchers in NL Cy Young Award voting last year will be in the top three again this year. The one dropping out will be Aaron Nola.
• The San Diego Padres will be one of the Wild Card teams in the NL.
• Troy Tulowitzki will see more games played than Aaron Hicks.
• Matt Wieters will catch as many or more games as Yadier Molina and have a nice bounce-back season.
• Sticking with the Cardinals, Adam Wainwright will have a swansong season, ala Mike Mussina, and lead the Cardinals to an NL Central Division championship.
• A lot has to go right for an aging, but talented group of starting pitchers, but the Washington Nationals will edge the Phillies for the NL East title. One of the biggest keys is whether Stephen Strasburg can turn in a star turn this season.
• The Red Sox will again edge the Yankees in the AL East. Starting pitching is too much of a problem for the Yankees to overcome.
• The Indians will again run away with a terrible AL Central with only the Twins and White Sox having a shot at flirting with the .500 mark.
• I do not see the Chicago Cubs making the playoffs. They have an old rotation, an unsettled bullpen and the offense is not as potent as it once was. The Brewers will be a better team.
• Bryce Harper will hit forty homers and walk more than 100 times.
• The Dodgers are far from a lock as the NL West champs. Their rotation is banged up with only Kenta Meada being a reliable option. The outfield seems to be a wasteland, Corey Seager has to find his way back. The infield lacks star players not named Justin Turner. Where is the talent?
• The American League will adjust a bit to Blake Snell. He will be good, but not AS good.
• But who in the NL West can overtake the Dodgers? The Rockies will take a step back. The Diamondbacks will miss their first baseman. The Giants do not seem a threat. Who then?
• The Oakland Athletics will take a step backwards. A LOT went right for them last year. That kind of thing doesn't happen very often two years in a row.
• Thus, alas, the Astros will again win the AL West with probably the Angels finishing second...distantly.
• The Yankees will break their own home run record. Gleyber Torres will have a better year than Miguel Andujar. Giancarlo Stanton will be better and Gary Sanchez may hit .230 but will hit 30+ homers.
• J.D. Martinez will take a step back this season. He will be solid, but not quite the force he was last year. Injuries will limit him this year.
• In a race for the MLB's most losses, the Orioles will again outlast the Marlins due to the amount of games the Orioles play against powerhouse rivals.
• Umpire Angel Hernandez will average causing 5.3 Twitter rants per week.
• MVPs - AL: Aaron Judge,  NL: Christian Yelich repeat.
• CYA - AL: Chris Sale, NL: Max Scherzer
• Rookie of the Year: AL: Elroy Jimenez, NL: Pete Alonso
• Manager Of The Year: AL: Alex Cora, NL: Mike Schildt (can I buy a vowel?)
• Comeback Player: AL: Dustin Pedroia, NL: Adam Wainwright
• And here is the big one: The players union and MLB will sign a major and new labor agreement that will bring harmony to the game for another ten years.

Enjoy the return of our favorite sport!

Gio Gonzalez Should Head North With Yankees

Luis Severino and CC Sabathia will begin the season on the shelf for the Yankees when they head north to begin the season. Since Severino went down, the speculation would be that the fourth and fifth starters of the Yankee rotation would be two of a possible three consisting of Luis Cessa, Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga. Cessa has seemed to have cemented his place as one of the two. His lack of options and his spring success seems to guarantee as much. Recently signed "insurance policy," Gio Gonzalez should jump both German and Loaisiga as the fifth option.

I know, I know. I have been the one screaming to keep away from Manny Machado and Bryce Harper to let the kids play. But pitching is different. A team needs starters that give the team the best chance to win. I think Loaisiga should be out anyway since his command has not been there this spring and he is still walking too many batters. But with a choice of German (who throws strikes) and Gonzalez, I still have to go with Gonzalez.

For those thinking that Gonzalez has not built himself up enough yet with a full Spring Training, Aaron Boone has said that Gonzalez had his own throwing program and had recently pitched as many as eight pitches in those sessions. Gonzalez has been through the wars and knows what he needs to do. He is durable and reliable and, though he is not flashy, he has more than a decade of getting Major League batters out. All you need is a decent five innings from the guy.

This way, German can take the place of Dellin Betances as a strike-throwing, bat-missing arm out of the pen. Sure, if you need German as a starter later in the season (let's hope not), you can stretch him back out if needed.

There are times when Domingo German looks better than Luis Severino. Unfortunately, there are other times when he looks like the 2016 version of Severino. He has a maddening tendency for giving up crooked numbers in a hurry interspersed with innings of brilliance. It makes you wonder if he too is tipping pitches.

The Yankees' offense is great. And that offense will win the team a lot of games. But the team still needs good starting pitching. Right now, that is my biggest worry about this team. Gio Gonzalez would be one less worry. The biggest thing I like about him is that he has a 0.8 homers per nine rate for his career. That is important when pitching for the Yankees.

Yes, I am a youth movement guy. Part of the excitement of this current team is the thrill of watching young and potential superstars take shape. Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga can be two of those potential stars. But Loaisiga is not ready (IMHO) and German needs to show he can be consistently effective. Gonzalez will never be a superstar. But he is more comforting in the rotation right now.

P.S. I completely want to puke thinking the Yankees are even considering using an "Opener." Such a thing is the scourge of the world. DO NOT DO IT, Yankees!! Don't go to the dark side!

Austin Romine And The Sorry State of Backup Catching

Austin Romine seems like a good guy, a good team player and a capable catcher. Romine had some timely hits last year and added ten homers--a new career high--to finish the 2018 season with a .417 slugging percentage. While a part of me appreciates his contribution, the fan side of me yawns with boredom. Romine is not the player you would ever associate with exciting. Basically, he is a backup catcher and that means a limited skill set.

I have long held that backup catchers are fungible. Really good ones are hard to find. To see if I could back up my long-held feelings, I used Baseball-reference.com's season finder, I attempted to construct a search that would pinpoint what are truly backup catchers and how much value they brought to their teams. For my criteria, I limited my search to players that caught at least 80% of their games and had 300 plate appearances or less. My search also looked for such players that brought at least one Win Above Replacement (WAR, Baseball-reference.com version).

Out of thirty teams last year, there were only four players that fit the search. Austin Romine was one of them. Since the year 2000 there have only been 81 such seasons or about 4.3 per season. There were only two in 2017! Of those 81, only two have been Yankee players--Romine (last year) and Francisco Cervelli in 2014.

The search was pretty successful since only a few of those seasons included starting catchers who happened to be injured that particular season. The search showed me how few backup catchers actually provided at least a win in value for their given teams. Only a handful reached two wins. None reached three.

I should state that such a search really only works for catchers. Starting catchers simply cannot start every day and the best ones are limited to 120 to 130 games. There are exceptions, but that is the norm. If I did a similar search for say a first baseman, I would only come up with 24 such seasons because there really isn't such a thing as a backup first baseman. Maybe I will do a similar search for multi-position players tomorrow.

If I took that search back to 1990, the 4.3 per season held up and between 1990 and 1999, only one Yankee reached that 1 WAR season: Mike Stanley. To show how rare these seasons are and how little value backup catchers have brought to their teams, since 1990, only five backup catchers have reached one win in a season more than twice. The leaders during that time period have to be considered the best backup catchers of their eras:

1. David Ross - 7
2. Mike Redmond - 4
3. Rick Wilkins, Don Slaught - 3

Only thirteen of the 96 total such catching seasons had two. 78 catchers during that period only did it once. And let me reiterate that since 1990, 124 catchers have had seasons with 1 WAR or more for a season out of 870 such team seasons. That is 14%. Backup catchers are truly fungible...or have been 86% of the time. Apparently, it all works out because they usually become managers and broadcasters.

By the way, David Ross is tied for the all time lead in such seasons since 1900 with a guy named Hank Gowdy. Does that make Ross one of the all time greats as a backup catcher? I think you would have to go there.

It seems that the one thing a backup catcher needs to do is have some defensive skills. If we go back to our original search from 2000 to 2018, there were 570 possible seasons for backup catchers (we will go with that even though some teams rarely have three catchers on a squad). Of those 570 seasons, 193 of those were by catchers who had at least 0.5 Defensive Wins Above Replacement. That 34% is certainly higher than the 14% with 1 WAR or more.

If we take that down to 0.1 Defensive Wins Above Replacement, then we have all but 76 seasons. Clearly, roster makers are looking for catchers who can display decent catching skills. That's why a pathetic hitter like Jeff Mathis (with his career 52 OPS+) can play fourteen seasons in the big leagues when he topped 0.5 Defensive Wins nine times during that span.

Tying this all back to Austin Romine, when considering all that we have talked about here, what he produced last season was terrific in light of the fact that only 14% of backup catchers have had such seasons since 1990. There is absolutely no reason for anyone else to replace him as the Yankees' backup catcher. But man, that still feels like getting a box of socks for Christmas.

Luke Voit Or Greg Bird

Many New York Yankee fans looked on wistfully when Paul Goldschmidt was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals. When it was first hinted that Goldschmidt was on the trading block, the thought of him wearing pinstripes was an attractive one. When that deal did not happen, the reality set in that first base would be manned by either Luke Voit--last year's hero--or Greg Bird. Now the reality is setting in that only one of them will survive the cut to head north for the season as suggested by Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman. Voit was given the initial nudge because of what he did last year, but Bird is being touted (once again) for the kind of spring he is having. So which will it be?

From a fan's perspective, there is an emotional choice here. Luke Voit won a lot of hearts in the city with his magical run, his infectious smile and his Hulk-like super hero body. Greg Bird has been the perennial disappointment akin to the Nick Johnson days. A few fans might be sad to see Greg Bird go, but not a majority. Voit would be the fan favorite.

The thing nobody knows is if Luke Voit is the real deal. As someone who has lived through the Kevin Maas and Shane Spencer days, Voit's fall exploits feel reminiscent. Heck, even Greg Bird had a great first year at the age of 22. There is also the fact that the Yankees are a heavily right-handed batting team. Greg Bird gives them more balance. But balance with a 79 career OPS+ kind of loses its luster.

I wonder what the Las Vegas odds would be on which player will make the team. In the Deja Vu department, Greg Bird is having a really good spring. But so is Luke Voit. But what about projections? Marcels' Projections has Luke Voit with an .842 OPS. Most would take that in a lineup like the Yankees have. The same projections has Greg Bird just topping a .700 OPS, which wouldn't cut it at all. Over at Fangraphs.com, the five projections there have a low wRC+ for Voit at 115 and a high of 140. Greg Bird has wRC+ projections that are at 100 for a low and 115 for a high. I think we have seen that projections are very much more in favor of Voit over Bird.

It would be a bit easier if one of them was superior with the glove. The hard truth is that both are terrible fielding first basemen. Fangraphs assigned Bird with a -3.4 runs on defense while Voit did worse at -3.7. It seems like their range is below standard in both cases and neither is very good at scooping balls out of the dirt. Voit seems a lot like Ron Bloomberg at first base which is why Bloomberg is the perennial trivia answer as to which player recorded the first hit with the DH rule.

Paul Goldschmidt's range makes him look like a gazelle in comparison to either choice for the Yankees. Alas...

It is easy to see why the Yankees are loathe to give up on Greg Bird. He is two years younger than Voit and is only 26. Bird has far superior MiLB numbers. Voit's were not terrible, but his career MiLB OPS of .824 is some 50+ points lower than Bird's. But does that mean anything? It all comes down to how you perform once you get the chance. Bird simply has not been able to lift off.

Both players have very similar walk and strikeout rates. Luke Voit hit the ball hard 47% of the time last year. Greg Bird was at 40%. Voit's weak contact was only 9% while Bird's was over 13%. Greg Bird has always been over 13% in that area.

Luke Voit seems to have the edge as a fan favorite, better projections, more hard hit balls and less weak hit ones and he has already become a legend. But Bird is home grown and younger. The Yankees have invested much more into his career. And if Bird is the one to get sent down, does that become a glass ceiling kind of thing? Is it worth even keeping him in the minors at that point?

Without taking a poll, it would be hard to imagine the fans wanting anyone but Luke Voit at first base. That would be my preference as well. But the fans do not always get what they want which is why Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are not Yankees. My gut feels kind of sick inside, but it is telling me that Greg Bird will be the choice.

The Tiresome Rants Against The Yankees Making A Profit

Twitter is full of rants against the owners and brain trust of the New York Yankees caring more about profits than about the fans. Because the Yankees do not want to blow across the payroll tax limit nor be held hostage for overlong, overly pricey free agents, the team is not doing its job for you and me. The constant comparison is made to George Steinbrenner's period of ownership when he would spend at all costs to build his teams. And, of course, the theme is that old George did it for the fans and his son(s) will not. How tiresome.

First of all, take any or all of these ranters and complainers and give them a company to run and see what their boards will say about making the fans happy over profits. That is not how capitalism works. Sure, there is a balance that must be struck between cost, price and what the customer is willing to pay or endure. Finding the right balance is how company's maximize profit. It's just the way it works.

To assume that sports teams are different than other businesses is a fantasy. The old cliche is that a rich guy/gal will tickle the funny bone and cluck his/her feathers for a trophy team may be true once in a great while. But such a purchase is always a business decision. And the team buyer is not in the business to lose money or profit. I will admit it does happen occasionally. The Detroit Tigers' owner did not care how much the team paid in salary as long as the Tigers could win a World Series before the owner died. It does happen. But not very often.

It is also a fantasy that old George did what he did altruistically for the "benefit of the fans." The man was a very proud man. He wanted to be king. He wanted his team to be the kings to prove that he was the king. It wasn't about the fans. However, his flair and his bravado did change the course of the team's history forever, so much so that a $10 million purchase has turned into a multi-billion dollar enterprise. The fans came along for that exciting ride!

To lose sight of the Major League Baseball Luxury Tax is bordering on being cavalier. After the 1994 strike, George Steinbrenner was also coming off of his most recent suspension. Unlike the past two decades, Steinbrenner gave more control to Gene Michael and his front office and stepped back a bit. That was the also the timing of the start of the Luxury Tax in 1997. The system was different in the beginning and the top five payroll teams were taxed between 1997 and 1999. From 2000 to 2002, there was no Luxury Tax and then a new system was put in place starting with the 2003 season.

During the first three years, the Yankees did not pay the most Luxury Tax. The Orioles did. Does that surprise you? One of the reasons is that Gene Michael and his team went to a youth movement and thus the Core Four was born. Of course, that Core Four became expensive as the years went along. But the Yankees did contribute $9.1 million in taxes during that time.

During the second system put in place in 2003, the Yankees lapped the field between 2003 and 2017 and paid over $319 million in taxes. That is about the cost of Bryce Harper! Ouch! The Dodgers were second with almost $150 million. During those years not only did it become extremely expensive to keep Jeter, Posada, Pettitte and Rivera as Yankees but they also got a little willy nilly again with free agents. How many World Series titles did the Yankees have in that period? Yeah, one. So much for making the fans so happy.

The way the system is set up, if a team is over the limit for three straight years, then the team has to pay 50% of whatever amount the team was over the limit. It is 20% the first year and 30% the second. So, it makes perfect sense to "reset" things by being under the limit or you are blowing out 50% more out the window. Not getting under the limit is just plain business stupid. It is akin to not having an inventory system and not caring how much shrink your products have.

Half of the money teams pay in Luxury Taxes is split among the teams that did not go over the limit. Thus, the Yankees and other teams over the limits line the coffers of teams that care more about profits than fans like the Pirates, Marlins, Rays, Royals and other teams that artificially keep their payrolls among the lowest in the league year after year. So the Yankees not only care little for their own fans, but the fans of all those other teams they helped support all these years.

Young players are ridiculously cheap and make no money in the minors and minimum upon entering the Majors. But, there is a huge cost to develop them. There are coaches and instructors and scouts and equipment and medical and on and on it goes. Yes, MiLB team owners pay some of that, but the cost is still large for the parent club. Why would you ignore those costs and not see if they pay any dividends?

Would Gio Gonzalez be that much better than the young talent the Yankees have developed? Would Dallas Keuchel? Who knows? The Yankees have developed their own talent. Use them and see which one will get the job done. If Domingo German would equal Gio Gonzalez at one-tenth the price, wouldn't that be the way to go?

The Yankees have decided to go young. Under the current CBA, young means cheaper and it is exciting to see young players develop. Yankee fans had a ball last year watching Torres, Andujar and Judge grow into what they could be. It brought them 100 wins. That is usually enough. It wasn't last year. There are a sprinkling of free agent veterans that did not break the bank. This team can be great...really great. Let's see how it will play out, shall we?

No business--or perhaps we can say few businesses--exist today out of the goodness of their hearts. As C.S. Lewis once said, "I've never had a selfless thought since I was born." Businesses pay attention to customer service and to quality product because they help maximize profit. It isn't for me to feel great about myself or for you. Apple doesn't give you everything you want for a low price and then throw away a chunk of their revenue. Thy will command the price you will pay whether the new product was better than the old one. Why? Because that is how to maximize profits. To expect a baseball team to act any different is unrealistic and leads to a lot of screaming into the night.

Blessed Day Watching Baseball

Today was the first chance this spring I have had to watch a baseball game. It was so totally enjoyable and relaxing to listen in to the flow of the announcers, hear the cracks of the bats and pitches popping the catcher's mitt. Being a Spring Training game, I was able to see some prospects play, see the relaxed fans and listen as running steps ran through first on ground outs. While I have been enjoying the game for over a half a century, baseball always seems new and wonderful. Those feelings overcome all the negativity that I otherwise hear about the game.

South-central Florida has three different sports talk radio stations. And during the week I listen when I can and flip back and forth. I would never dare call any of them and that is okay because they hardly take calls on talk radio these days.

One of the stations is a Fox Sports affiliate, the other a CBS Sports station and then there is ESPN. I mostly prefer the Fox station as they have rock-solid personalities to listen to (except probably Andy Slater). Despite the riches of options, I cannot listen to them for long.

You can pretty much guarantee what will be discussed on these stations these days (and most of the year). Number one seems to be Lebron James and the Lakers. Number two seems to be that player the Lakers wanted and New Orleans foiled them with a gleam in their eyes. Following those two are the Celtics, the Knicks, the NFL draft and the current situation (ad nauseam) with the Steelers' erstwhile wide receiver.

Baseball was briefly discussed when Bryce Harper signed. Most panned the contract for the Phillies stating the team was crazy. So my ears perked up when one of the shows brought up baseball that was not free agent related. To my dismay (but not surprise), most of the talk was negative. Baseball is in trouble, they said. Baseball is boring, they said. Baseball is only enjoyed by people with the average age of 50 they said. Baseball is no longer the center of American life, they said.

Radio, like television, lives and dies by advertising revenue. And advertising revenue these days seems to mean targeting to young people between 18 and 35. According to all wisdom, that is the age group that sparks the economy. That age bracket is the one which spends money. As such, it has been determined that the NBA is most important to the targeted age bracket followed by the NFL. None of them want to hear about baseball.

That could be true and it could be a self-fulfilling prophesy. The length of the game is ALWAYS cited as a problem. The lack of action is another big one. And the fuzzy third is that Major League Baseball discourages the individualism and spontaneity of its players.

Let's discuss these three for a brief moment. I am not going to get all technical about it with facts and figures. I could if I wanted to. But I am a fan. And albeit, I am one of those older fans they talk about and outside the target audience. But baseball is only too long if you do not love the game. That's it, plain and simple. One of the radio "experts" cited extra-innings as a killer. Seriously? That thought has been so loud lately as to have baseball's commissioner consider starting extra innings with a runner on second. What an abomination that would be!

There is an ebb and flow in a baseball game. It takes a lifetime of playing and watching the sport to enjoy that tidal ride. If you are a marginal fan, I can see how that could be boring.

I am not against doing away with some of the really tedious things. Stopping Gary Sanchez from going to the mound 45 times in a half inning was a good idea. I thought that helped a lot. I am not totally against a pitch clock as long as it includes an element for the batter too. I like the idea of not so many pitching changes in an inning. Tony La Russa really started that mess, didn't he? As long as the ancient (there, I said it) ebb and flow of a game is not messed with, speed it up where you can. But even as it stands now, baseball is never too long for me. Ever.

The second one is related to the first. Much is talked about how baseball has become a three-outcome affair. Either it is a strikeout, a walk or a homer. And it is true that strikeouts are at an all-time high and homers are way up there as everyone preaches launch angle these days. But does that really make it a three-outcome game?

Okay, I lied, I will throw a couple of numbers out there. Last season, strikeouts, walks and homers accounted for 62,478 plate appearances. That is a lot, eh? In 2010, that number was at 54,697 and in 2000, the number was 55,286. That is quite a jump. If we assume that 55,000 was the old norm, then last year's rate was a 12% increase. And last year was the first time there were more strikeouts league-wide than hits. So far, I seem to be making the point for the naysayers.

But consider there are around 185,000 plate appearances a year (last year was 185,154). Strikeouts-walks-homers accounted for 33% of the total of plate appearances. So basically there is 67% of the time when something other than those three events happen. That 2010 number accounted for 29.7% of plate appearances. By percentage, that really is not that big a leap

Look, I have railed against strikeouts over the years more than most. I hate that statistics do not seem to care that Aaron Judge strikes out 200 times a year. I do. Think how good he would be if he halved that?  But are they making the game boring?  I would argue that strikeouts excite people. We already know that homers do.

The lack of offense is a more important issue than the three-outcome thing. While we are not at Deadball Era offense in the modern game, offense has taken a hit from analytics and positioning. Even saying that, I am really against legislating against shifts because it is a strategic part of the game. It is up to the batters to adjust, not the rules. And they will eventually. Baseball is cyclical. It always has been.

The third thing is the individualism, flair, personality issue. While some of the "unwritten" rules discourage celebrations and individualism, I think baseball players are trending toward being more personable. Video games and 24-hours sports programming on the MLB Network (for example) is showing the players more as people.

But I am more than okay with the players doing their jobs and grinding it out day after day. After all, the complete freedom of expression now has players in the NBA and NFL saying things like they are their own CEOs and the sport cannot tell them what to do. Uh, excuse me, but the fans are paying the teams and the teams are paying you, so sit down, shut up and play.

I am not saying that the current MLB is not without its problems. Having teams that can "tank" to get better draft picks by trading their young, expensive talent is a problem. That is not fair to the fans of those cities. Having teams that rake in as much profit from television contracts, salary-tax payments and the staggering money handed over from The MLB Network and MLB.com and not turn those profits into better talent in their dugouts is a real problem. Just ask Pirates and Royals fans.

There is a pseudo-salary cap in place. There should be a salary basement as well. The minimum team payroll should be set at $80-$100 million. The minimum salary should be at a million a year. Players need to start making money when they are younger because the free-agent model has changed (and it should change). And there are other things like pitcher health, for example, and the playing of important games far too late into the night so children can watch is a huge problem

But overall, Major League Baseball is still a beloved game by a LOT of people. It still has the second highest revenue in all of major sports. I think if some of the radio energy was actually put into MLB, then the perception would change. While I am not going to get into the way that Fox and CNN try to bend perception, the fact is that they do. And it hurts us as a country. Having the sports media down-talk baseball and instead try to increase its relevance in their thinking would go a long way to change how young people think about the game.

Either way, MLB has been one of my strongest passions my entire lifetime and one of my true joys. I was so glad to watch a game today. It never gets old. Only I do. And I do believe that this game that I love will still be kicking strong as long as I am on this earth.

Is Greg Bird Teasing Us Again?

I promised myself that I was done with Greg Bird. After all the hype about his sweet swing and his MiLB success, hopes were built and expectations were set. Outstanding Spring Training performances occurred in 2015 and 2017 and led to the big tease. The result was a total letdown of major proportions. The tease did not even lead to decent numbers. They led to oblivion.

And thus, it was somewhat liberating to just write him off. The mindset was not particularly cruel. After all, for a position on the field that has an expectation to hit the ball effectively, Bird, flopped spectacularly. During the last two seasons, his wCR+ has been 86 and 81 respectively. According to Fangraphs, his offense in the past two seasons has been worth -11.9. Yeesh.

But it was worse than that for those of us who watched all those games. Greg Bird batted .133 with the bases loaded. He came to the plate seven times with the bases loaded and only one out. He went zero for seven in those opportunities. In late and close games in 2018, Bird batted .154 in those situations.

He was the rally killer. He was the candle snuffer. Just when it looked like the Yankees had an offensive surge coming, Greg Bird would take the life out of it. That made it very easy to jump on the Luke Voit bandwagon once the big guy performed his Shane Spencer imitation. No second thoughts were even given to Greg Bird not even making the post season rosters.

Much like a baker who puts the bread in the oven, I was more than willing to brush my hands of the Greg Bird experience. It seemed time to move on.

But one thing that seems to hold true about Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone is a loyalty you would not expect in a kill or be killed game. Cashman and Boone have remained steadfast concerning not only Greg Bird, but also Gary Sanchez after the bad egg he laid in 2018 himself.

Personally, I was not confident of the Yankees' first base position heading into the 2019 season. Sure, the Luke Voit thing was fun. But is it sustainable? And would a Voit / Bird platoon work? The first alarming thing about a platoon is that Bird hit lefties better than right-handed pitching in 2018, which, granted, is not saying much. But not only is the offensive tandem worrisome, but the fielding between the two is terrible.

I have long stated that a first baseman's defense is one of the most underrated aspects of baseball. If you have a squad full of ground ball pitchers and an infield of very young players, then you need first basemen who can make all the scoops and have all that footwork down. Neither Voit or Bird are strong defenders and their marks on Fangraphs.com and others show that to be the case.

Here we are in Spring Training once again. Both Voit and Greg Bird have had a good start in smacking the ball around. Of course, it is all meaningless at this point, but it is encouraging. And that is the problem.

I do not want to get sucked into the Greg Bird narrative again. I do not want to read articles about how he is finally where he needs to be both physically and mentally. I do not want to hear it when Boone says that Bird could be a large contributor this season. We have been down that road too many times before and, each time, it has turned to dust.

But....what if they are right? Nuh uh! Can't be! Won't happen! But what if it does? Darnit! It's happening again...

Aaron Judge Has No Leverage For An Extension

The current trend with free agents in Major League Baseball does not favor Aaron Judge, the New York Yankees' slugger and face of the team. The big man has a problem in that he has not yet reached the arbitration years (2020 will be his first) and cannot hit the open market until 2023. By then he will be 31-years-old. If he continues his star pace through the years, he will be limited by the length of any free agent deal. The Yankees, however, have no urgent need to speed up the process since he is under the team's control for at least four more seasons.

These thoughts coalesced upon hearing of Nolan Arenado's new extension with the Rockies. Arenado is a year older than Judge but had the benefit of starting younger in his career. That gave the Rockies a bit more urgency to tie up the face of their organization for the foreseeable future.

Aaron Judge probably is not built this way, but it would be understandable to see him whistling ruefully over the money that Arenado is getting. After all, Judge has compiled 13.2 fWAR over the last two seasons even though he missed a good chunk of 2018. Arenado, in comparison, compiled 11.7 fWAR in that same period. Judge has also had great numbers in the post season while Arenado has not. But Judge has no leverage with so much team control remaining.

If Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar continue to advance their young games, they will be in much better positions when their times come. They started so young that their greatness will be rewarded. Gary Sanchez is in a similar position to Judge, but Sanchez has to prove that 2018 was just a ditch in a long road. Sanchez cannot even get to a deserving point of view until he Lysol's what happened last season.

Aaron Judge's position is the exact one where MLB players have a problem. The days of a 30-year-old getting eight or more years are over and will not come back. Teams do not want to speculate on a player beyond his 35th birthday. And if that is what the numbers say, who can blame them? There have been enough of those foolish deals spattered over history: Pujols and A-Rod are just two who come to mind.

From a player's standpoint, if the free agent game has changed to a younger mindset, then the players cannot keep playing for free in their early careers. Yes, $1.2 million over two years is a lot of money by our mortal standards. But, it is peanuts in baseball's expense model. Consider that Aaron Judge has given the Yankees $118 million of performance value for a three year paycheck of about $2 million. That is a steal and Judge will probably not have the ability to recoup what he has provided.

Aaron Hicks seemingly read the tea leaves and signed a bargain of a deal for the Yankees in his extension. While I am not as high on Hicks as others, if he continues on his current track and stays healthy, he will blow away that deal in favor of the team. But Hicks had more leverage than Judge has.

Will the Yankees buy out the remainder of Aaron Judge's pre-free agent years? And if so, what would that look like? Again, there is no real urgency on their part to even consider it at this stage of Judge's career.

And so Judge has a problem. He must continue to prove that he is this big of a star, wait patiently and get decent raises through the arbitration process (once that even starts) and hope he can get a four or five-year deal on the back end that makes up for what he essentially gave for free. I am not sure if this model is fair for any players who start at an age when Aaron Judge did or whether this only applies to superstars. Either way, the odds are against Aaron Judge ever seeing Arenado-type money even though he has been a more valuable player.