MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: August 13, 2013

My apologies that this is late. I have bronchitis or something and slept in with a Nyquil coma. I woke up to find that yesterday was not a bad day with seven out of eleven correct. I came out on the wrong side of the Danny Salazar vs. Andrew Albers rookie shootout. I should have picked Chris Sale and the Marlins were just a dumb pick. And what do you know: Cole Hamels won a game. Oh well.

Since this is late, let's get right to Tuesday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Angels: Jason Vargas has not pitched since mid-June and the Yankees are a little better set up to hit lefties with Soriano and A-Rod. It all depends on CC Sabathia and if he can pull himself out of this slump he is in.
• The Giants over the Nationals: If I had to go head to head with Madison Bumgarner and Gio Gonzalez, I would have to pick Bumgarner. This could go either way though as both are capable of shut down outings.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Ryan Dempster has been brutal at times this season and he faces a lineup with power, which is scary. But the bottom line for me is that the Red Sox should hit Todd Redmond even harder, especially the second or third time through the order when Redmond has shown weakness.
• The Braves over the Phillies: Ethan Martin has had two big league starts. One was terrible and the other decent but with a lot of base runners. The Braves should feast on that. Kris Medlen is the question mark here. But Medlen should be better than Martin.
• The Bay Rays over the Mariners: Erasmo Ramirez is 3-0. That's great! Uh. No. His ERA sits at 7.13 and his WHIP at 1.50. He is the poster boy of those who say wins are meaningless. Chris Archer should come out on top here. But the Rays are in a tailspin of sorts.
• The Reds over the Cubs: The last time I picked Jeff Samardzija to win, he got bombed. Today I pick against him and he will win, just watch. I have to go with Homer Bailey and the Reds in this one.
• The Twins over the Indians: These are two teams I just cannot figure out this season. I always seem to get the wrong. Before, the only time the Twins won was when Samuel Deduno pitched. Then I picked him to win and he lost. Sigh. I am picking Sam Deduno again against Zach McAllister.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: I am still convinced that Hector Santiago and Jose Quintana are the same guy. Has anyone ever seen them at the same time? Max Scherzer has to be the pick. Too bad all his wins don't mean anything.
• The Royals over the Marlins: Jose Fernandez is not quite the same pitcher on the road as he is at home. At home, he is a lock. On the road, not so much. And Bruce Chen...Bruce freakin' Chen never seems to lose with his whiffle ball stuff.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: This is the Cardinals' big chance facing the Pirates at their home park. And they start off on the right foot with their ace, Adam Wainwright, on the mound. Charlie Morton has been good for the Pirates. I do not really know how, but he has.
• The Rockies over the Padres: I have kicked this one to death in my mind. Do I really want to pick the Rockies when Jeff Manship is pitching? I mean, even his name is ridiculous. It is like Grace Slick started yet another band and called it Jefferson Manship. You know? Anyway, I am picking him anyway because who knows what will happen at Coors Field and Eric Stults never gives me any love anyway.
• The Orioles over the Diamondbacks: The Orioles seem to have the kind of offense that can exploit a younger pitcher of talent like Randall Delgado. And Miguel Gonzalez is probably one of the better pitchers than nobody ever hears about.
• The Athletics over the Astros: It is only fair that the A's get some Astros love since the Rangers had them all weekend. Bartolo Colon over Jordan Lyles and his Wagoneers.
• The Dodgers over the Mets: The future debate of Rookie of the Year lies here in this match up of Matt Harvey against Hyun-jin Ryu. As much as I dread picking against Harvey, who is the better of the two in my opinion, Ryu is pretty unbeatable at home and I like that he has cut down on his walks and has only walked one in his last three starts. This should be fun to watch.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Rangers over the Brewers: I know the old saying goes that on any given day...yada yada. But the Rangers should never lose to the Brewers. Ever. Alexi Ogando has not exactly been slinging the ball effectively, however, and Marco Estrada has been better. I am still going with the Rangers.

Yesterday: 7-4

Week: 18-8

Month: 99-60

Season: 1002-773

Games of the Day: 77-51    +2

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: July 23, 2013

Between all the histrionics and hand-wringing, there was baseball played last night. I watched the ESPN broadcast of the Rangers and Yankees and was pretty disgusted that a third of that broadcast was based on Ryan Braun instead of what was going on in the field. I very nearly turned it off.

But at least I had a decent day with nine correct out of fifteen. I made a couple of stupid picks in the five that were incorrect. I remember even mentioning that pitchers always stink the game after a no-hitter and yet I still picked Tim Lincecum. Duh. I picked the Angels to win a Joe Blanton start. Duh. My belief in Josh Johnson was laughably misplaced.

But otherwise, it was a good picking night. The Seattle pick over Cleveland was brilliant. Here are Tuesday's picks:

• The Reds over the Giants: The Reds and Giants play two games today. In this first one, it will be Tony Cingrani against Eric Surkamp. Surkamp pitched a bit for the Giants in 2011 but missed all of 2012. He has impressive minor league numbers but still walks too many for my taste. That is why I am going with Cingrani.
• The Pirates over the Nationals: I like Gerrit Cole over Taylor Jordan. Jordan is a ground ball machine though and those guys can have really good nights once in a while. But Cole is a guy who can shut the Nats down.
• The Reds over the Giants: The Giants must think the Reds cannot hit lefties as that is all they will get today. Barry Zito could get eaten alive though by the Reds offense, which is deep enough. The wild card here is the start by Greg Reynolds. Reynolds was the number 2 pick in all the nation back in 2006 but never panned out for the Rockies. He is having a brilliant minor league season and will not be a stranger to a Major League mound.
• The Dodgers over the Blue Jays: Yesterday's game caused me to officially give up on the Blue Jays. Gosh, I thought they were better than they are. Todd Redmond will not last long and things are going so well for the Dodgers that even Chris Capuano is pitching well.
• The Mets over the Braves: It was scaring me that I had not picked a home team to win as yet. The Mets are at home. But it is more than that. I like Carlos Torres, who at the age of 30, is not afraid, throws strikes and they are quality strikes. Kris Medlen goes for the Braves.
• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: Jon Lester has a lot of people scratching their heads, including me. He started out so well! But even a messed up Jon Lester is better than a Roberto Hernandez. Why do the Rays keep pitching him?
• The Rangers over the Yankees: I cannot stomach any more of Vernon Wells / Travis Hafner playing every day. I just cannot. Play the kids already, for crying out loud. And it is time to DFA Eduardo Nunez. How many chances does one guy get? Phil Hughes will give up two or three homers and Alexi Ogando has an easy night.
• The White Sox over the Tigers: Yeah. I know. And I swear that Hector Santiago and Jose Quintana are the same guy who just changes his name for different starts. But Rick Porcello is pitching and needs a new home. And if Miguel Cabrera sits...
• The Astros over the Athletics: Yes, this will probably come back to haunt me. But Jarrod Cosart sure looked good in his first start against the Rays, a good team. I looked like a BABIP start though, so warnings there. Jarrod Parker goes for the A's.
• The Brewers over the Padres: Tyson Ross goes for the Padres tonight. He is 0-4 for the season.  Tyson Ross is 6-22 in the Big Leagues. I cannot take those numbers. Instead I will go with ground ball machine, Donovan Hand.
• The Cardinals over the Phillies: Shelby Miller has had some rest and should come out strong. Jonathan Pettibone has not done poorly for a young guy. But the Cardinals are a really tough test for any young pitcher.
• The Rockies over the Marlins: As much as I like Jose Fernandez, I cannot see him conquering Coors Field. Jhoulys Chacin, however, knows how to pitch there.
• The Diamondbacks over the Cubs: I have been aboard the Patrick Corbin train all season. Why stop now? By game time, Alfonso Soriano might be a Yankee. That will not help Travis Wood's chances any.
• The Twins over the Angels: Gosh, Angels. I thought you were movin' and groovin' there for a while. Now you are back to the same old slow grind. Kyle Gibson has had only one real bad start (Yankees) but is your typical no-strikeout Twins pitcher. This pick is really against Tommy Hanson more than anything. I think the Twins will hit him.
• The Indians over the Mariners: I like the move of putting Nick Swisher in the two-hole. That should work better. Zach McAllister is back. How good he will be is anyone's guess. I am guessing he will be better than Erasmo Ramirez.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Orioles over the Royals: Jason Hammel and Bruce Chen are amazing in that they remain in the Majors year after year. Hammel has not won in a while and Chen, though terrible, is 3-0. He will be 3-1 after tonight.

Yesterday: 9-5

Week: 27-17

Month: 154-103

Season: 831-639

Games of the Day: 65-42

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 15, 2013

I watched the games and the picks with interest last night from my hotel room in Augusta, Maine, where I traveled yesterday for a conference. The beginning of the night really started rather brilliantly. I predicted that Barry Zito was ripe for a clunker. He was. I correctly predicted that if the Yankees could match up CC Sabathia with Felix Hernandez and make it a bullpen game, they would win. They did. I even predicted a 5-2 score for the Tigers and they won by the score of, 6-2. Pretty heady stuff. But then the rest of the night was only ordinary to finish the day at, 9-6.

Dumb picks of the day included the Mets beating the Cardinals. The Mets did not have a prayer in that game. The other was going one start too many with Jeremy Guthrie. He was not bad, really. But four solo homers did him in. And Jason Vargas did a good job limiting the Royals. The Brewers pick went twelve innings to be proven wrong. But the one that hurt the most was the Padres beating the Orioles because that was the Game of the Day.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Orioles over the Padres: Which rehashed pitcher should one choose in this game? Freddy Garcia? Uhh...Jason Marquis away from Petco? Uh... Both pitchers are so ordinary that I have to go with the better offense and that is definitely Baltimore's.
• The Phillies over the Indians: If I was to ask you which pitcher between Corey Kluber and Cole Hamels was 1-5, who would you guess? I would not pick Cole Hamels if I had not been following along. Pretty amazing really. He is a better pitcher than that and will show it today.
• The Tigers over the Astros: I really could make the Astros the Game of the Day every day. But that would not be sporting, would it? They keep playing great teams and are just over-matched in every way. Today will not be any different as Max Scherzer will beat Dallas Keuchel.
• The Twins over the White Sox: This series keeps going back and forth. I like the Twins in this one because Mike Pelfrey seems better than Dylan Axelrod. Pelfrey had a really bad start his last time out though. That is the trouble with having a rotation full of BABIP pitchers for the Twins.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: Yesterday was probably the A's best chance to win and they did not. Alexi Ogando should shut them down (which does not take much these days) and allow the Rangers to score a few off of Dan Straily. The Rangers are way ahead in the AL West.
• The Diamondbacks over the Braves: Ian Kennedy likes facing the other team's ace and is best in those situations. He gets Tim Hudson in this one. That will work as an ace in my book. But then again, I am blinded by my man-crush for him.
• The Pirates over the Brewers: I like Wandy Rodriguez at home here. It is not that Yovani Gallardo is a chump for a match-up though. Gallardo is a consistently underrated pitcher. But I still like Wandy at home against a struggling Brewers' team.
• The Mariners over the Yankees: Phil Hughes gives up a homer or two and Mr. Hisashi Iwakuma does to the Yankees what he has been doing to the rest of baseball all season.
• The Giants over the Blue Jays: Ryan Vogelsong scares me. He simply has not pitched well. But Ramon Ortiz pitching for the Blue Jays? Geez. How can you pick them with that?
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: The Red Sox have lost three straight and are 2-8 in their last ten games. Jon Lester is having a very good season. But he is up against David Price tonight. Price has not be right (yeah, there is a pun in there somewhere), but he is hard to pick against at home.
• The Reds over the Marlins: Once again, like the Astros, it is hard to pick the Marlins on any given night. Oh, they will win their 55 to 60 games. But the odds are much better picking against them. Alex Sanabia is a Four-A pitcher. Mike Leake is at least a little better than that.
• The Cubs over the Rockies: This was a real bad pick yesterday. But that was yesterday. The Rockies jumped all over the Cubs after a long hitting slump. But Jeff Samardzija can put those bats to sleep again if he is on. I cannot say the same thing about Jon Garland.
• The Cardinals over the Mets: No, I am not going to make that same mistake twice. Shelby Miller was untouchable his last outing. Can he be nearly as good back to back? It may not matter because Shaun Marcum is simply terrible for the Mets.
• The Nationals over the Dodgers: Yes, Zack Greinke is coming back to pitch this one. But he will go five innings and then what? I never like these first game back scenarios. Ross Detwiler needs to be a lot better than he was his last time out though.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Royals over the Angels: Barry Enright for the Angels? No. Not good for them. Enright has never had success in the big leagues. Why he keeps getting the opportunities is beyond me. I would much rather go with Wade Davis who should be able to give up four or five runs and still win this one.

Yesterday: 9-6

Week: 22-19

Month: 107-79

Season: 336-243

Games of the Day: 30-13

Texas Rangers Bullpen - Story of the Playoffs

As far back as this writer can remember, the Texas Rangers could hit the seams off of a baseball. Going back to the Teixeira/A-Rod/I-Rod/Palmiero days, producing runs has never been a problem for them. And the same holds true today. But in the past, if you thought about the Texas Rangers, the two thoughts that always came to mind were: great offense - lousy pitching. And yes, Nelson Cruz deserves all the headlines for his historic (first time ever) walk off grand slam. But pitching is their bread and butter. It all seems so strange.

When the 2011 season started, people wondered if the Rangers would have enough pitching after Cliff Lee spurned them to sign with the Phillies. And the Rangers didn't run away with the division like this writer thought they would. So when the trading deadline came around, this writer figured the Rangers would go after another Cliff Lee-like deal. Surprisingly, they didn't. Instead, they stocked up on relief pitchers. What an insanely clever plan that turned out to be. Mike Gonzalez and Mike Adams have been invaluable against the Tigers, but what has also been very clever has been the playoff use of two in-house solutions. One is the forgotten man, Scott Feldman, 2010's opening day starter and last man out ever since. The other is Alexi Ogando.

Let's start with Alexi Ogando. It was a minor surprise that Ogando did not figure into the Ranger's rotation plans during the playoffs. A case can be stated that Ogando was the Rangers' third best starting pitcher this season behind C.J. Wilson and Matt Harrison. He had a far better season that Colby Lewis. But Ogando faded a bit in the second half and Colby Lewis had a big post season last year. You can't fault Ron Washington's thinking there. 

The net result though was giving the Rangers another dynamic option in the bullpen and boy has that worked out. Ogando has pitched in five of the Rangers six post season games covering 6.1 innings pitched. He's given up two hits and one walk.

Every post season seems to have some sort of unsung hero. This writer's pick so far has been Scott Feldman. The Fan follows a couple of writers from the Rangers and Feldman is not loved by them at all. Perhaps they are right in that Feldman made nearly four and a half million this year and was worth (mostly due to injury) about $1.1 million. Rangers writers believe Feldman's contract (2012 - $6.5 million, 2013 - $9.25 million on a team option) is a sunk cost. If this Fan was Jon Daniels, that cost seems to be worth every penny from the way Feldman has pitched this post season.

Sure, Feldman has only made two appearances. But those two appearances have been lifesavers. Feldman covered seven and a third innings relieving a struggling starter both times. He's covered 7.1 innings in those two appearances that more vital relievers might have had to cover otherwise. In those 7.1 innings, he's given up three hits and no walks while striking out eight! There is no way the Rangers win Game Two against the Tigers without the effort he put up.

Nelson Cruz deserves every headline he has garnered. He sure came up big when he needed to. But the bullpen is what won the Rangers that game. And the bullpen is their edge over the Tigers. The Tigers can match two or three of those relievers. But not the full array the Rangers can throw at them.

Projecting Alexi Ogando

Alexi Ogando of the Texas Rangers has been one of the nicest stories of the season. Just a couple of years removed from his involvement in a human smuggling operation, Ogando has followed C. J. Wilson's example of moving from the bullpen to the rotation. Like Wilson's conversion last year, you can't ask much more than what Ogando has done this season. He has erased all lingering concern about the loss of Cliff Lee before the season started. All that said, what can we expect from Ogando the rest of the season? If the Rangers make the playoffs (which seems to be good odds at the moment), will he have anything left? Let's take a look.

First, one of the smartest things to do is to look at what other experts are saying. After all, they are experts, right? Baseball Prospectus projects Ogando to go 5-4 in 63 more innings with an ERA in that span of 2.66, a WHIP of 1.09 and a WAR of 2.1. Hey, any Rangers' fan and fantasy player would be more than happy with that. ZIPS(U) figures he'll go 3-1 the rest of the way with an ERA similar to the 2.72 he has now. Again, that's a pretty happy projection.

Those projections make this writer nervous. It's not that there is cynicism about the pitcher's abilities. The nervousness comes from Ogando being in totally uncharted waters. He has no track record. He's never pitched this many innings. All of that makes this writer want to dig much deeper.

The first thing that comes to mind is the kind of opponents Ogando has faced so far this year. He did beat the Tigers twice and very convincingly. He beat the Indians convincingly and he beat the White Sox. And he pitched brilliantly against the Angels last night. But his team lost both games to the Yankees he pitched, he lost to the Mets when they were hot and he lost to the Braves in a game he pitched well. All of his other outings have been against weak opponents.

Looking at the schedule ahead, if we go every fifth game, it looks like he'll have two more starts against the Angels, two against the Blue Jays (a team he has a no-decision against so far this season), two against the Tampa Bay Rays, one against the Mariners and one against the Indians. If things get juggled around a bit, he could end up facing the Red Sox once or twice or miss them both times. That's not an easy schedule and to win half of those games would seem the best of possible outcomes.

Alexi Ogando's batted ball statistics are kind of freaky. He gives up a somewhat high number of line drives at 21 percent, and, of course, when batters hit line drives off of him, they get on base 73 percent of the time. But his BABIP against on ground balls and fly balls is miniscule. On ground balls, that figure is .160 with an OPS of .364! On fly balls, the BABIP is .107 with an OPS of .556. His home run to fly ball ratio is very good at 7.2 percent and he seems to induce an amazingly high percentage of pop ups to the infield at 15.9 percent.

Just for the sake of comparison, C. C. Sabathia's BABIP on ground balls is .254 and Sabathia's infield pop up rate is just 5.9 percent. Overall, Ogando's overall BABIP is a good forty points lower than Sabathia's and because of that, his FIP is +75 in comparison to his ERA and his xFIP is +102. Of course, it must be stated that the Rangers have excellent infield defense and that certainly contributes to Ogando's numbers.

Just from looking this deep into his numbers, this writer's projections on Ogando would be that it would be a successful rest of the season if he won half of his games and had an ERA under four in those remaining contests.

Alexi Ogando has been a worthy replacement for Cliff Lee. The Rangers found lightening in a bottle and have pretty much replaced what Cliff Lee would have given them to this point. The difference is that Cliff Lee has a track record at the end of the season and in the post season. Ogando is a complete wild card in both situations. It's probably fortunate for the Rangers that Derek Holland and Matt Harrison are coming on so strong because relying on the continued success of Alexi Ogando makes this writer very nervous.