MLB Game Picks - Sunday: May 3, 2015

Saturday was a 9-6 day but the Pick of the Day was wrong as the Cubs finally lost. My luck has turned on extra-inning games as the last three have gone my way.  Who knew that picking the Twins would be so fortuitous. Who knew the Astros were going to be this good?

I did have one incredible coincidence of bad luck yesterday and it cost me two picks. On the same day, the last out was recorded giving the Giants and the Dodgers wins because a batted ball hit a base runner. Both would have been base hits and both would have at least tied the games. How's that for incredible? 

Sunday's picks:

• The Marlins over the Phillies: The Marlins complete the sweep of the hapless Phils as Jarred Cosart finishes them off. Severino Gonzalez got rocked in his first start. What will happen today?
• The Indians over the Blue Jays: Trevor Bauer and Drew Hutchison have the exact same 2-0 record. The difference is that Bauer has had four starts and all were quality starts. Hutchison? Not so much.
• The Nationals over the Mets: I really shouldn't base so much on the starting pitchers. But I tend to. In this case, I like Doug Fister much more than the current iteration of Dillon Gee.
• The Reds over the Braves: Johnny Cueto versus Julio Teheran can be a pretty good match-up. That said, the Reds will score lots of runs and win this one.
• The Orioles over the Bay Rays: I bet the Orioles wish they still had Nelson Cruz. Holy cow, that guy is amazing. But anyway, the O's still have some punch and should take care of Nathan Karns. Then, all they need is for Wei-Yin Chen to pitch well.
• The Twins over the White Sox: I have picked against Mike Pelfrey all the time this early season and he is making me look stupid (not that it is difficult). So I will pick him today and probably still look stupid. John Danks goes for the White Sox.
• The Tigers over the Royals: The rubber game of the series features Anibal Sanchez against Jeremy Guthrie. Sanchez has made some adjustments and is pitching much better. Jeremy Guthrie should leaver a hanger or two about to cost the game.
• The Astros over the Mariners: I might as well stick with the very hot Astros. I wasn't going to because Roberto Hernandez is pitching. But he hasn't been half bad this season. J.A. Happ goes for the M's and has pitched well himself.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: The Cardinals will complete the sweep. But it will considerably easier today as they should win easily behind Michael Wacha going against Vance Worley. It scares me whenever I perceive a mismatch, however.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: The last time I sang Jimmy Nelson's praises, he gave up thirteen base runners in 2.1 innings. Yeesh. Perhaps Nelson will get back on track today. But I'm still going with the Cubs behind Jason Hammels.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: The Rangers are playing better and Yovani Gallardo has been pretty good for them. But Sonny Gray is my guy. Whenever he pitches, it is a Sonny Gray Day.
• The Giants over the Angels: The better days are behind both Tim Lincecum and Jered Weaver. But Lincecum still has somewhat of a big league fastball. Weaver couldn't out-gun Jamie Moyer at this point.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: I do believe this is the second battle of the Andersons this season. Chase Anderson is the better one and Brett Anderson is not. So that is the pick.
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: The Red Sox will salvage the last game of this series as Joe Kelly is a better pitcher than Adam Warren. At least when considering how each will do against his opponent team. Kelly reminds me a lot of Eovaldi.

And the Pick of the Day is:

• The Padres over the Rockies: Kyle Kendrick has made a career of making me look foolish. Whenever I pick against him, he mocks me. But heck, I still think James Shields and the Padres will prevail today.

Yesterday: 9-6, May: 17-13, Season: 181-178, Picks of the Day: 14-13

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: August 15, 2013

It is always a bummer when I have a good day of picking and one of the few picks that go wrong is the Game of the Day pick. After all, that is the pick I feel the most confident about and that is why it is selected as the Game of the Day. The feature should probably be called the pick of the day, which would be more accurate. Yesterday, that pick was the Red Sox who lost to the Blue Jays. Esmil Rogers had given up 26 earned runs in his last 25 innings pitched. That is a lock, right? Wrong.

Overall, I picked eleven out of fifteen correctly to erase a bit of Tuesday's bad picking. The picks I am proud of include Francisco Liriano shutting down the Cardinals and a good game leading to a victory for Jordan Zimmermann saved by this catch by Span. You have to remain loyal to your main guys.

There are ten games on the schedule with four day games today. I like it. The picks:

• The Yankees over the Angels: Here is my thing: If the Yankees win today and get a good performance from the erstwhile Phil Hughes, then they are poised to make a run. If Hughes is his usual awful self, then they just had three good games against a team even worse than them. C.J. Wilson goes for the Angels.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: The Cardinals need this game badly and they are set up pretty well for it with Lance Lynn on the mound and facing A.J. Burnett. Burnett could put a crick in that chain if he can get his curve over for strikes.
• The Nationals over the Giants: Dan Haren has found himself and has been the Nats All-Star in his last four outings or so. Ryan Vogelsong has been somewhat decent himself in his last couple of outings. Going with the Nats at home.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: This pick pre-supposes that Jake Peavy is going to pitch well. Of course, there is no guarantee of that, especially with two or three guys in the Blue Jays' lineup that can pulverize the ball. Mark Buehrle has been good too, but he won't be against the Red Sox.
• The Tigers over the Royals: This can be another one of those series where the Tigers smack down a supposed contender, just like they did the Indians. Anibal Sanchez has been terrific and though Jeremy Guthrie has been good, the Tigers' lineup will get to him.
• The Bay Rays over the Mariners: Alex Cobb returns to the mound after his horrific blow to the head by a line drive. The M's go with Joe Saunders, who is capable of pitching well with his slop at home. Tough game to pick here.
• The Twins over the White Sox: How bad are the Twins when Joe Mauer gets five hits in a game and the team still loses? And their bullpen got roasted against the Indians. But they are playing the White Sox, so I am picking them anyway. Mike Pelfrey over Andre Rienzo.
• The Brewers over the Reds: Let's face it. This is a game the Reds should win. They are way better than the Brewers. But they do have to face Kyle Lohse, a guy who knows how to pitch. And Lohse has pitched against the Reds thirteen times and has a 3.26 ERA against them. That means the Brewers have to score four runs against Tony Cingrani. Doable.
• The Mets over the Padres: This game assumes too much perhaps. First, it presumes the Mets can score off of Tyson Ross. Secondly, it assumes Zack Wheeler can put his stuff together for a good game. If those assumptions are off, so is the pick.

And the Game (or pick) of the Day:

• The Athletics over the Astros: I like Sonny Gray. Not only does he have a cool baseball name, but he has a decent arm too. I think he will go six innings and strike out seven. Erik Bedard used to be that kind of pitcher, but not anymore.

Yesterday: 11-4

Week: 35-21

Month: 116-73

Season: 1019-786

Games of the Day: 77-53    -2

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: June 12, 2013

The picks took another beanball to the head last night. Oh, wait. That was the Dodgers. Which ironically, was one of the few correct picks of the day. I do not think players should be thrown at with baseballs, so I can barely stomach Zack Greinke throwing at a Diamondback player to retaliate for Puig getting hit in the nose with a pitch. But at least I can understand it and Greinke hit the guy where it could do no damage (even though that does not excuse it). But then Ian Kennedy threw a pitch at Greinke's head (and succeeded) and that has no place in baseball at all, and in my mind is a criminal act with a deadly weapon. Kennedy, long one of my favorite players, should be suspended for weeks for that act. All you have to do is look at what Brandon McCarthy has gone through to know that was the worst thing Kennedy could have done and inexcusable. Color it any way you want, but that was brutal, I do not care whose fan you are or what you say to excuse it. You never, ever, ever should throw at a player's head.

Anyway, it was another awful picking night in what has been an awful week and now even the month is in the red. Does anyone want to buy this feature from me? I obviously suck at it after four years of doing this. Sheesh. Maybe it is time for another opposite day. An opposite day is where I pick every team I think should lose to win to reverse gears. Nah. I cannot.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Angels over the Orioles: Maybe this is an opposite pick. Maybe I cannot believe what I see for stats from Jason Hammel. Maybe I think Jerome Williams is the best Angels' pitcher. Maybe I have nothing to lose. Maybe Mike Trout should be batting third so there might be someone on base when he hits a homer (29 of his 46 career shots are solos).
• The Tigers over the Royals: I would pick James Shields on just about any other occasion except pitching against Justin Verlander.
• The Reds over the Cubs: So I picked the Cubs twice in this series. Shame on me. So I learn my lesson the hard way and pick the Reds. But now watch Travis Wood beat Mike Leake. I am ready for it emotionally. It will happen.
• The Braves of the Padres: So now I have picked four straight home teams to lose. And I have that sinking feeling. But geez, the Braves should beat the Padres. The Braves should hit ten homers off of Edinson Volquez. Paul Maholm should be even better in a big ballpark. Should. Oh, crap.
• The Pirates over the Giants: Some of that Giants' mystique has been missing in recent weeks. And the only guy winning consistently is Barry Zito. So I might as well pick against him, right? But there is a reason. Francisco Liriano has been awesome. Ugh.
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: Come on, man, give me an easy one will ya!? Chris Archer is the kind of pitcher the Red Sox should eat for lunch. High homer rate. High walk rate. Young, inexperienced guy. All good so far. But then they start Alfredo Aceves, who could be awesome or awful depending on how the non-existent wind in that dome blows.
• The Marlins over the Brewers: Egads. Is this Alfredo night, or what? This time it is Alfredo Figaro Figaro Figaro pitching for the Brewers. Kevin Slowey benefits perhaps from Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison being back in the Marlins' lineup.
• The Rangers over the Indians: The Indians have had a good series at the Rangers' expense. But sooner or later, you would think the Rangers would explode at home. While I am not a big fan of picking the Rangers to win when Nick Tepesch is pitching, the thought is that the Rangers hit Ubaldo Jimenez at home.
• The Twins over the Phillies: So the Phillies could not beat the Twins with Hamels on the mound. Are they going to win with Tyler Cloyd and his 4.91 K/9 rate? It does not seem likely except that Mike Pelfrey is pitching for the Twins. Oy.
• The White Sox over the Blue Jays: This pick went south yesterday late in the game when the Blue Jays pulled it out with a White Sox' blown save. Perhaps a save will not be in the offing with Chris Sale on the mound against Esmil Rogers.
• The Rockies over the Nationals: The Nationals were supposed to be in the World Series this year. But Bryce Harper is wearing a brace on his knee. Strasburg has a pulled muscle. And the Nats are reduced to starting Ross Ohlendorf. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Jorge De La Rosa should take advantage.
• The Yankees over the Athletics: Phil Hughes pitches better outside of Yankee Stadium and the A's lost Cespedes to yet another leg muscle injury. Dan Straily, though, will have a wimpy Yankees' offense to deal with. I will be in bed by the time this pick goes wrong.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Yes, Patrick Corbin is 9-0 and deservedly so. He has been that good. But he goes against Hyun-jin Ryu in this one and that should be the difference  with the Dodgers at home. Hopefully, the bean ball wars are over.
• The Mariners over the Astros: The Astros made Aaron Harang look like Tom Seaver last night. So Jeremy Bonderman should look like a Cy Young Award candidate. Meanwhile, Jordan Lyles is 3-1 so far this season, so I could look like a dope again.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Cardinals over the Mets: Dillon Gee has been pretty good lately. But he is facing the Cardinals. The awesome Shelby Miller is pitching for the Cardinals and is facing the Mets. Now that is a pick I can at least feel good about. That makes one today.

Yesterday: 6-9

Week: 16-25  Isn't that pretty

Month: 74-75  man oh man

Season: 537-425

Games of the Day: 42-28

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 15, 2013

I watched the games and the picks with interest last night from my hotel room in Augusta, Maine, where I traveled yesterday for a conference. The beginning of the night really started rather brilliantly. I predicted that Barry Zito was ripe for a clunker. He was. I correctly predicted that if the Yankees could match up CC Sabathia with Felix Hernandez and make it a bullpen game, they would win. They did. I even predicted a 5-2 score for the Tigers and they won by the score of, 6-2. Pretty heady stuff. But then the rest of the night was only ordinary to finish the day at, 9-6.

Dumb picks of the day included the Mets beating the Cardinals. The Mets did not have a prayer in that game. The other was going one start too many with Jeremy Guthrie. He was not bad, really. But four solo homers did him in. And Jason Vargas did a good job limiting the Royals. The Brewers pick went twelve innings to be proven wrong. But the one that hurt the most was the Padres beating the Orioles because that was the Game of the Day.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Orioles over the Padres: Which rehashed pitcher should one choose in this game? Freddy Garcia? Uhh...Jason Marquis away from Petco? Uh... Both pitchers are so ordinary that I have to go with the better offense and that is definitely Baltimore's.
• The Phillies over the Indians: If I was to ask you which pitcher between Corey Kluber and Cole Hamels was 1-5, who would you guess? I would not pick Cole Hamels if I had not been following along. Pretty amazing really. He is a better pitcher than that and will show it today.
• The Tigers over the Astros: I really could make the Astros the Game of the Day every day. But that would not be sporting, would it? They keep playing great teams and are just over-matched in every way. Today will not be any different as Max Scherzer will beat Dallas Keuchel.
• The Twins over the White Sox: This series keeps going back and forth. I like the Twins in this one because Mike Pelfrey seems better than Dylan Axelrod. Pelfrey had a really bad start his last time out though. That is the trouble with having a rotation full of BABIP pitchers for the Twins.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: Yesterday was probably the A's best chance to win and they did not. Alexi Ogando should shut them down (which does not take much these days) and allow the Rangers to score a few off of Dan Straily. The Rangers are way ahead in the AL West.
• The Diamondbacks over the Braves: Ian Kennedy likes facing the other team's ace and is best in those situations. He gets Tim Hudson in this one. That will work as an ace in my book. But then again, I am blinded by my man-crush for him.
• The Pirates over the Brewers: I like Wandy Rodriguez at home here. It is not that Yovani Gallardo is a chump for a match-up though. Gallardo is a consistently underrated pitcher. But I still like Wandy at home against a struggling Brewers' team.
• The Mariners over the Yankees: Phil Hughes gives up a homer or two and Mr. Hisashi Iwakuma does to the Yankees what he has been doing to the rest of baseball all season.
• The Giants over the Blue Jays: Ryan Vogelsong scares me. He simply has not pitched well. But Ramon Ortiz pitching for the Blue Jays? Geez. How can you pick them with that?
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: The Red Sox have lost three straight and are 2-8 in their last ten games. Jon Lester is having a very good season. But he is up against David Price tonight. Price has not be right (yeah, there is a pun in there somewhere), but he is hard to pick against at home.
• The Reds over the Marlins: Once again, like the Astros, it is hard to pick the Marlins on any given night. Oh, they will win their 55 to 60 games. But the odds are much better picking against them. Alex Sanabia is a Four-A pitcher. Mike Leake is at least a little better than that.
• The Cubs over the Rockies: This was a real bad pick yesterday. But that was yesterday. The Rockies jumped all over the Cubs after a long hitting slump. But Jeff Samardzija can put those bats to sleep again if he is on. I cannot say the same thing about Jon Garland.
• The Cardinals over the Mets: No, I am not going to make that same mistake twice. Shelby Miller was untouchable his last outing. Can he be nearly as good back to back? It may not matter because Shaun Marcum is simply terrible for the Mets.
• The Nationals over the Dodgers: Yes, Zack Greinke is coming back to pitch this one. But he will go five innings and then what? I never like these first game back scenarios. Ross Detwiler needs to be a lot better than he was his last time out though.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Royals over the Angels: Barry Enright for the Angels? No. Not good for them. Enright has never had success in the big leagues. Why he keeps getting the opportunities is beyond me. I would much rather go with Wade Davis who should be able to give up four or five runs and still win this one.

Yesterday: 9-6

Week: 22-19

Month: 107-79

Season: 336-243

Games of the Day: 30-13

The Great. The Sad. And the Ugly

Thursday night in the majors showed how great and how awful major league baseball can be. There was greatness. There was sadness. And there was a whole lot of really, really ugly. Many of you can probably guess who fits in what category.

The Great

Randy Johnson won his 300th game in style. He gave up only two hits and one run. Granted, it was the Nationals, but, heck, it counts. If anything, that's impressive because the Nationals can hit.

Chris Carpenter is now 4-0. He pitched a complete game masterpiece against the Reds. One run, three hits and no walks. What he is doing is mind blowing. Remember, he missed almost all of 2007 and 2008. He pitched a total of 21 innings for two years. And then he comes back like this? Who does that? Nobody does that. Nobody misses that much time and comes back like this. His WHIP is under 1. His ERA is under 1. His batting average against is under .200. His strikeout to walk ration is 5.6/1. He's given up only one homer. It's all very overwhelming.

The Sad

Dontrelle Willis had the following pitching line against the Red Sox: 2.1 0 5 5 5 3. No hits, five walks, five runs. All of us were hoping and it's just sad that he has come to this.

The Kansas City Royals were such a good story at the start of the season. They started at 18-11 and would have been even better if not for a guy named Farnsworth. Since then, they have gone 5-17 and are falling faster than a piano thrown off of the Empire State Building. Tonight was the epitome of it all. Gil (ga) Meche pitched a good game. His walks were alarming, but he left with a 2 to 1 lead. Jamey Wright came in and gave up a two-run home to B. J. Upton and it turned into another loss. How sad.

The Nationals lost two games of a double-header to the Giants. In the two games, they scored two total runs on nine hits. They have now won only 26% of their games. At their current pace, they will end up with a 43-119 record.

The Ugly

Mike Pelfrey pitched 3.2 innings. He gave up nine hits, four walks and eight earned runs. Against Pittsburgh no less.

Wandy Rodriguez, who was having a good year up until his last start, pitched five innings, gave up ten hits, two walks, seven runs and four homes. Ugh!

Carmona pitched two innings, gave up five hits, three walks, two homers and seven runs.