MLB Game Picks - Monday: October 7, 2013

Both games were picked correctly yesterday though the Dodgers - Braves game did not go according to what I envisioned. Hyun-jin Ryu was ineffective for the Dodgers and they quickly went to Chris Capuano. That decision won the game because Capuano was terrific and he earned the win. The Braves, as we shall see in a minute, are now in big trouble.

The Pirates also have the Cardinals on the ropes, but we shall see if the shortness of their rotation becomes a factor as they lack a shut down guy today and if the series extends, have to come back with A.J. Burnett, who was shellacked in his last outing.

The two ALDS games will be exciting too. The Tigers and A's are tied and the series goes to Detroit. The Red Sox have a chance to sweep the Rays but must do so down in St. Pete. Four big games today. It should be fascinating.

The picks:

• The Tigers over the Athletics: Jarrod Parker is my problem here. At times, he looks spectacular and on others, not so much. His one start against the Tigers this season was disastrous. His home/road splits do not tell us much nor do his day/night splits. I think the Tigers hit him. Anibal Sanchez goes for the Tigers and few people realize what a great season he had. His record does not pop out at you, but he is right there among the leaders in many categories. If he pitches well, the Tigers win.

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: This game completely depends on how Michael Wacha pitches. The young stud pitcher for St. Louis has the kind of arm that can shut down anyone. But he is young and he makes mistakes. If he can limit them today and get off to a good start, the Cardinals win. If he doesn't start well, then anything can happen with the fans in Pittsburgh going nuts. Charlie Morton does not strike fear in anyone. He is a pitcher totally dependent on BABIP or where his batted balls go upon contact.

• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: I see a sweep. Clay Buchholz has been unbelievable this season and if he is good today, the Rays will not get him. I questioned Lackey in Game 2, but as a Twitter pal pointed out, Lackey is better at home and if the Red Sox won, could come back with Buchholz for game, set and match. The only sticking point is Alex Cobb, who has been amazing himself. But that amazing goes against every team except the Red Sox. The Red Sox can make any pitcher look mortal and if that offense shows up, there will be nothing Cobb can do to stop them. Cobb lost only three games this season. One of them was to the Red Sox. Overall, he faced them four times and had a 5.16 ERA against them.

• The Dodgers over the Braves: The Braves are in big trouble and I see the Dodgers closing out the series today. Fredi Gonzalez's decision to bring Alex Wood into the game as a long reliever in yesterday's game means that Freddy Garcia will start for them today. Excuse me while I pause to gag. Oh, Freddy is capable of a surprise good start. He has done it a couple of times this season. But he has given up 18 homers in just 81 innings. Yeah, that's bad. Alex Wood should have started this game and Garcia should have performed the long relief. Of course, Ricky Nolasco had a great start with the Dodgers and kind of petered out as the season went along. But gosh, all he has to do is be ordinary today and the Dodgers should win.

Yesterday: 2-0

Post season: 8-5

Season: 1382-1073

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 15, 2013

I watched the games and the picks with interest last night from my hotel room in Augusta, Maine, where I traveled yesterday for a conference. The beginning of the night really started rather brilliantly. I predicted that Barry Zito was ripe for a clunker. He was. I correctly predicted that if the Yankees could match up CC Sabathia with Felix Hernandez and make it a bullpen game, they would win. They did. I even predicted a 5-2 score for the Tigers and they won by the score of, 6-2. Pretty heady stuff. But then the rest of the night was only ordinary to finish the day at, 9-6.

Dumb picks of the day included the Mets beating the Cardinals. The Mets did not have a prayer in that game. The other was going one start too many with Jeremy Guthrie. He was not bad, really. But four solo homers did him in. And Jason Vargas did a good job limiting the Royals. The Brewers pick went twelve innings to be proven wrong. But the one that hurt the most was the Padres beating the Orioles because that was the Game of the Day.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Orioles over the Padres: Which rehashed pitcher should one choose in this game? Freddy Garcia? Uhh...Jason Marquis away from Petco? Uh... Both pitchers are so ordinary that I have to go with the better offense and that is definitely Baltimore's.
• The Phillies over the Indians: If I was to ask you which pitcher between Corey Kluber and Cole Hamels was 1-5, who would you guess? I would not pick Cole Hamels if I had not been following along. Pretty amazing really. He is a better pitcher than that and will show it today.
• The Tigers over the Astros: I really could make the Astros the Game of the Day every day. But that would not be sporting, would it? They keep playing great teams and are just over-matched in every way. Today will not be any different as Max Scherzer will beat Dallas Keuchel.
• The Twins over the White Sox: This series keeps going back and forth. I like the Twins in this one because Mike Pelfrey seems better than Dylan Axelrod. Pelfrey had a really bad start his last time out though. That is the trouble with having a rotation full of BABIP pitchers for the Twins.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: Yesterday was probably the A's best chance to win and they did not. Alexi Ogando should shut them down (which does not take much these days) and allow the Rangers to score a few off of Dan Straily. The Rangers are way ahead in the AL West.
• The Diamondbacks over the Braves: Ian Kennedy likes facing the other team's ace and is best in those situations. He gets Tim Hudson in this one. That will work as an ace in my book. But then again, I am blinded by my man-crush for him.
• The Pirates over the Brewers: I like Wandy Rodriguez at home here. It is not that Yovani Gallardo is a chump for a match-up though. Gallardo is a consistently underrated pitcher. But I still like Wandy at home against a struggling Brewers' team.
• The Mariners over the Yankees: Phil Hughes gives up a homer or two and Mr. Hisashi Iwakuma does to the Yankees what he has been doing to the rest of baseball all season.
• The Giants over the Blue Jays: Ryan Vogelsong scares me. He simply has not pitched well. But Ramon Ortiz pitching for the Blue Jays? Geez. How can you pick them with that?
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: The Red Sox have lost three straight and are 2-8 in their last ten games. Jon Lester is having a very good season. But he is up against David Price tonight. Price has not be right (yeah, there is a pun in there somewhere), but he is hard to pick against at home.
• The Reds over the Marlins: Once again, like the Astros, it is hard to pick the Marlins on any given night. Oh, they will win their 55 to 60 games. But the odds are much better picking against them. Alex Sanabia is a Four-A pitcher. Mike Leake is at least a little better than that.
• The Cubs over the Rockies: This was a real bad pick yesterday. But that was yesterday. The Rockies jumped all over the Cubs after a long hitting slump. But Jeff Samardzija can put those bats to sleep again if he is on. I cannot say the same thing about Jon Garland.
• The Cardinals over the Mets: No, I am not going to make that same mistake twice. Shelby Miller was untouchable his last outing. Can he be nearly as good back to back? It may not matter because Shaun Marcum is simply terrible for the Mets.
• The Nationals over the Dodgers: Yes, Zack Greinke is coming back to pitch this one. But he will go five innings and then what? I never like these first game back scenarios. Ross Detwiler needs to be a lot better than he was his last time out though.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Royals over the Angels: Barry Enright for the Angels? No. Not good for them. Enright has never had success in the big leagues. Why he keeps getting the opportunities is beyond me. I would much rather go with Wade Davis who should be able to give up four or five runs and still win this one.

Yesterday: 9-6

Week: 22-19

Month: 107-79

Season: 336-243

Games of the Day: 30-13