MLB Game Picks - Friday: May 17, 2013

For a short schedule, Thursday was a good day. Seven of nine correct is a fine tally. But as always, it was the two that got away that get all of my attention. If you reread yesterday's version, you can even see me say that Jonathon Niese was due for an overpowering performance. And yet, I still picked against him because it was the Cardinals he was facing at home. The Mets won easily despite facing Adam Wainwright.

The other wrong pick was the Yankees. Aaron Harang was supposed to start. I predicted the Yankees would rough him up. Instead (and I never heard why), Hector Noesi got the start. He was part of the Jesus Montero deal and has an astronomical ERA as a member of the Mariners. Noesi shut down the Yankees for four and a third and then five other relievers held onto the lead while Andy Pettitte hurt his back in the fifth inning.

But again, it was a good day. And now on to Friday:

• The Mets over the Cubs: The Matt Harvey show makes a stop at Wrigley and it will be an afternoon game and is must-see TV. The kid is amazing. Edwin Jackson will try to keep the Mets scoreless to at least give the game to the bullpen.
• The Phillies over the Reds: The Phillies are at home and Phil Lee is having a good season with a 4-2 record. With the Phillies not playing well, few have noticed. Tony Cingrani still has not lost a game and experts are poo-pooing his fine start to his MLB career. Time will tell if they are right or not.
• The Pirates over the Astros: Neither pitcher fills me with much enthusiasm. Jeanmar Gomez has pitched okay, but I still do not trust him. Jordan Lyles still sounds like the name of a country singer rather than a pitcher. The Pirates had a good series in Milwaukee. The Astros lose a DH as if their offense can afford to lose another bat.
• The Indians over the Mariners: Interesting game and one that is hard to peg. The M's won two of three from the Yankees. The Indians are pitching better. Among those pitching better is Ubaldo Jimenez. But it is still hard to trust him. Brandon Maurer has had some good games. Hard one to judge.
• The Orioles over the Rays: The Rays just cannot get going. And the fact that Fernando Rodney is not locking it down at the end is killing them too. When I see a guy like Rodney who was so good last year go through this, it again makes you amaze at Mariano Rivera. Rivera never had such a stretch. Jason Hammel over Jeremy Hellickson.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: The Yankees lost two more players yesterday in Andy Pettitte and Chris Stewart. Hiroki Kuroda will try to keep their ship afloat against a tough Blue Jays' lineup. Mark Buehrle is having a tough season, but he could hold the Yankees in check.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: The Marlins will win 50 games this season. As I have said before, the trick is to figure out which games those will be. I think this one will be one of them. Kevin Slowey can have a good BABIP game and the Marlins can squeeze a few runs out of Trevor Cahill.
• The Braves over the Dodgers: Hyun-Jin Ryu has been very good. There is no doubt about that. But the Braves have the kind of right-hand hitting pop that can get to him I think. At least, that is my story and I am sticking to it. Paul Maholm goes for the Braves.
• The Rangers over the Tigers: I am not feeling this as strongly as I did yesterday when Darvish was the winner as predicted and Verlander got whacked. Rick Porcello pitches well on the road. Nick Tepesch is the wild card for me. I simply have no idea how good he is or is not.
• The Red Sox over the Twins: Clay Buchholz is really good. And it has nothing to do with tanning oil and rosin. The Red Sox had a huge comeback win against the Rays last night so they should be pumped. I really thought Vance Worley would be better for the Twins than he has been.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: I hate picking the Cardinals. I just do. In my mind, they should win this game as Jaime Garcia is usually good at home. But Wily Peralta is an unfamiliar pitcher to me. I have just seen his name every five days doing this every day. But I really know nothing about him.
• The Giants over the Rockies: How the heck did the Rockies blow a 6-0 lead against Matt Cain, no less? Amazing. It is that kind of thing that will always keep the Rockies from contention in the end. Madison Bumgarner over Jorge De La Rosa.
• The White Sox over the Angels: Glub, glub, glub go the Angels as they lose day after day. Extraordinary development. Chris Sale will not make it any easier on them today. C.J. Wilson will not be head and shoulders above Sale. Did you see what I did there?
• The Royals over the Athletics: I kind of root for the Royals, just so you know. That might influence the picks a bit. But I do think that James Shields is better than Jarrod Parker so, all feelings aside, the pick should be correct.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Nationals over the Padres: Burch Smith made his major league debut his last time out. It did not go well. I am not expecting much better today. Gio Gonzalez should enjoy Petco and have a good day.

Yesterday: 7-2

Week: 37-28

Month: 122-88

Season: 351-252

Games of the Day: 32-13

Queasy about Cleveland's pitching

The Cleveland Indians made a nice early run in 2011. After flying out of the gate with an 18-8 record in April, the team sat on a 32-20 record by the end of May. The team was in first place until June 10 and stayed among the division leaders and even grabbed it by a game as late as July 22. Their big play at the trade deadline for Ubaldo Jimenez did not pan out as they hoped and the team played sub-.500 baseball from June through the end of the season. The Tigers zoomed past them and never looked back. Given Ubaldo's track record, you could perhaps think that his 2011 season was a blip. But a poor spring and rumors of his attitude and diminished radar gun readings make you wonder. And he isn't the only pitcher suspect this spring. Of course, spring baseball doesn't count and we can't read too much into it. Plus, the team plays its spring games in Arizona where the balls fly without much hindrance. How much concern should there be?

The Indians' best pitcher this spring has been newcomer, Derek Lowe. Lowe is trying himself to overcome one of his worst seasons ever last season with the Braves. So his spring success is encouraging. But every other projected starter has struggled this spring. Well, check that. Jeanmar Gomez has had a terrific spring. But is he really their fifth starter? Perhaps. Gomez has only started once this spring in his four appearances while guys like Josh Tomlin, Kevin Slowey, Jimenez and David Huff have started four or five games each. Lowe has had success in his career and Jimenez is still considered a great arm. But do the rest of those rotation options give us any kind of optimism. Not really.

After looking at the Baseball Prospectus depth chart for the team, the projections are not appetizing. Justin Masterson should be better than the 3.99 ERA BP projects for him and better than the 1.7 WARP that sight predicts. Take the upside there. But BP's projection for Ubaldo Jimenez comes in with an ERA of 3.47 and a WARP of 2.8. Judging on the last year, you'd have to take those numbers with a grain of salt. The Indians would be thrilled with that Ubaldo. Don't count on them.

Derek Lowe is projected poorly, most likely based on last season and moving from the National League to the American League. His projection of a 4.62 ERA and a measly 0.2 WARP are very pessimistic. Lowe should have a decent season left in him and beat those numbers.

Josh Tomlin is projected for a 4.17 ERA with a WARP of 1.1. The former seems optimistic and the latter perhaps a bit pessimistic. His sinker is a good one but it all depends on his balls in play. The expectation here is an ERA closer to the 4.50 mark. He'll have his fair share of good outings though. 

BP's projections for Jeanmar Gomez and David Huff are gruesome to look at. Both are projected with negative WARPs. It's hard to argue with either projection. BP rates Kevin Slowey higher, but that's hard to justify after seeing what happened to him last season.

What we are seeing here is an experiment. The Indians are going almost entirely with extreme ground ball pitchers. Such pitchers can get "hot" depending on where their ground balls are hit. But this rotation's success will likely revolve around the type of season Ubaldo Jimenez has. If the 2010 version shows up, then some of the other weaker links are less exposed. But if the 2011 version is what they get, then this rotation blows up.

Baseball Prospectus predicts the Indians will win 80 games just like last season. But this rotation leaves much of a feeling of queasiness. If Lowe bounces back and Masterson continues to grow and Jimenez can get his stuff together, this team could win 85 games pretty easily. But if two of the three of those scenarios do not develop, this team could struggle to win 75 games in 2012.