The Tigers Aren't Very Good - And That is Scary

The Tigers lead the Minnesota Twins by five games and the White Sox by six. They are a virtual lock for the division title. And yet they aren't a very good team. They just got swept by the Royals, of all teams and they are 2-11 against the Red Sox and the Yankees. They are only 27-25 in the second half of the season and they project out to win 87 games by season's end. Hardly inspiring. But that makes them scary. Remember the Cardinals in 2006?

The Cardinals won the World Series in 2006 with a team that finished the regular season at 83-78. A big part of the reason is that their pitching got hot in the playoffs and they had a guy named Albert Pujols. The Tigers have a couple of guys in Verlander and Jackson who could be dominant in the playoffs and they have a guy named Miguel Cabrera.

Who knows if history can repeat itself, but seriously, the Tigers aren't a great team. In a fourteen team league, the Tigers are 11th in batting average, 10th in On Base Percentage, 11th in total bases. They have a catcher (who IS good at throwing out runners) who is batting .218 with a 62 OPS+. They have a pretty slick shortstop who has a 61 OPS+. They have a third baseman who can be spectacular at times with the glove, but whose arm is falling off and is batting .231. Aubrey Huff has done nothing since coming over from the Orioles. Ordonez has lost all his power and Granderson is having a bad year getting on base.

The pitching is somewhat of a better story. With Verlander, Porcello and Jackson, the Tigers have two studs and a third guy who is better than league average. In a five game series, that's enough really. In a World Series, it gets a bit dicey after those three. Galarraga can't seem to get it together and Jarrod Washburn isn't really that good. They have a decent enough bullpen by today's standards as long as Zach Minor never gets into another game. Rodney is a bit of a question mark as a closer. His 1.37 WHIP and his 4.7 walks per nine innings are pretty scary. He's not a guy who strikes out a batter an inning either. So he's a bit of a liability overall.

The Tigers are a decent fielding team. They are fifth in the league in defensive efficiency despite being league average for fielding percentage. They are good at throwing out runners as mentioned earlier and they have a very good fielding infield in Inge, Polanco and Everett.

It just doesn't seem like a team that can compete with the likes of the Angels, Yankees and Red Sox. Pitch around Cabrera and the rest of the batters can't hurt you very much. Verlander and Jackson are great, but they don't seem to have killer instincts. But again, if you think back to the Cardinals of 2006, all that becomes pretty scary come time for the post season.

Game Picks - Friday: September 11, 2009

How easy is it for us human beings to put to the back of our minds the pain of the past. This picker did not even realize what day it was until typing the heading for this post. A lot has happened since that event. The President who got us through that crisis has been disgraced as an idiot. This writer just hopes that the web of protection he created to stop future incidents is vigilant. We may have forgotten, but the danger is just as real today as it was then. The Fan lifts his coffee mug and salutes and remembers those good people we lost eight years ago today.

Apologies if that was a bit of a downer for those of you who just wanted to watch the Fan bungle through another day of picks. Thursday was an off day for more than half the teams, but the Fan was slightly above .500 for the games that were played. While correctly picking the Nationals to beat the Phillies, this picker failed to see the Royals sweeping the Tigers. Really? Nor did this picker expect Oswalt to blow up the joint. The Fan did expect the Twins to confound as usual. The Fan hates the Twins. They are impossible to predict. Impossible.

And so it is Friday and we are back to a full slate of games. Let's see what we got here:

• The Cubs over the Reds: Did you know that Wells is seventh in the NL in ERA+?
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Burnett was pretty good the last time out. The Yankees really need him to get it together.
• The Twins over the Athletics: Let's see, the Twins are starting a guy with the improbable name of Manship. That means that they should lose. So then they will win. Golly.
• The Braves over the Cardinals: Not high on either Lohse or Hudson at this point. But one of them has to win.
• The Phillies over the Mets: Moyer gets a start. Go old man, go!
• The Angels over the White Sox: Decent match up of Santana versus Danks. Going with Santana.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: One of those darned games when anything can happen. Anibal Sanchez can be brilliant or really stinky. The Nationals are starting an unknown named, Estrada.
• The Pirates over the Astros: Ohlendorf versus Moehler. Moehler will shout: "Ohlie Ohlie in come free!"
• The Royals over the Indians: The Royals just completed a Royal Flush over the Tigers go out and win their fourth in a row.
• The Tigers over the Blue Jays: Jackson should be better than Richmond. Are the Tigers the worst playoff team ever? Could be.
• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: The Bay Rays always play the Sox tough, but Beckett has to get out of this funk he is in.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: The Rangers really can't lose any games the rest of the way, can they?
• The Brewers over the Diamondbacks: Another one of those, "Who knows?" games. Mulvey starts for the Diamondbacks. Who? Bush starts for Milwaukee. Yuck.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: Padilla keeps showing that nearly any AL pitcher can succeed in the NL.
• The Rockies over the Padres: Jiminez should blow through this game.

Yesterday: 4-3
Week: 36-32
Month: 76-63

Game Picks - Thursday: September 10, 2009

We all survived that 9/9/9 thing and lived to tell about it. The funny thing is that this picker had to write a check yesterday and forgot what the date was. Duh! That's almost as bad as the former employee who one day in this picker's office asked him what day Easter fell on that year. Duh! All of which is as funny as the time this picker and his former wife were in the video store. The game picker was looking at movies and picked up Gettysburg. The former wife looked over to see and asked the family's famous question: "Gettysburg? What's that about?" She is a great lady, but that wasn't one of her best moments. Hehe.

After a spectacular Tuesday, Wednesday went right back to mediocrity which is majorly frustrating. It's just baseball and it is beyond picking to know what is going to happen. Since any particular night is like the lottery, the Fan has as much chance at going a perfect 15-0 as he has winning that lottery. And you can try to be scientific, but it's problematic at best to rely on probabilities.

And so, like that old lottery wheel, we will now watch what spills out of that old wheel for Thursday in a light schedule of only seven games:

• The Twins over the Blue Jays: Because it's just crazy. Pavano helped the Twins win last night. It's frigging rediculous.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Jarrod Washburn versus Lenny DiNardo, who hasn't pitched in the majors since August 10th of last year.
• The Rockies over the Reds: Because somebody has to win the game that Contreras and Kip Wells are starting. Golly...
• The Nationals over the Phillies: Because the Fan is a nut who likes to pick Livan Hernandez.
• The Marlins over the Mets: Another crap shoot of West versus Parnell. When in doubt, go with the team with more talent.
• The Astros over the Braves: Because the Astros will score three runs against Lowe while the Braves don't versus Oswalt.
• The Angels over the Mariners: The darned Angels are going to win the AL West. sigh...

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 32-29
Month: 72-60

The Vultures

A lot has gone right for the Yankees this year. Okay, that was the understatement of the year. After obtaining Teixeira, Sabathia and Burnett in the off-season, they were the odds-on favorite to win the A. L. East (this writer predicted Boston). But a 91-50 explosion wasn't expected. That is especially so since the starting pitching has been kind of a train-wreck with the exception of Sabathia and Pettitte. Thank goodness the Yankees have the Vultures.

For as long as the Fan has been a fan, he has heard the term, "Vulture," for any relief pitcher who steals a win from a starter. For example, Hoyt Wilhelm, the Hall of Fame knuckleballer, was 15-3 in 71 relief appearances in 1952. That's a vulture. Stealing a win is probably not giving the relief pitcher justice. Sure, some relievers blow saves and then get the win. Now that's a true vulture. But a vulture can also come into a game in long relief when a starter falters or gets hurt or something and then get the win when his team rallies back. To do that, the vulture has to keep the other team at bay so his team can score that comeback victory. The venerable Jamie Moyer has two vulture wins this season by coming in after early rain delays and pitching four or five innings.

But the Yankees lead the league in vulture wins. And it isn't even close. Yankee starters have accounted for 53 of the Yankees' 91 wins. That's only 58%. The relievers have all the rest. The most amazing vultures of the Yankees are the trio of Brian Bruney, Alfredo Aceves and Jonathan Albaladejo. Between those three guys, they have a record of 19-2. Aceves, who has been the clean up man for Joba Chamberlain since the "Rules" have been in place, is 10-1 all by himself.

The funny thing is that Albaladejo and Bruney have been rather un-extraordinary. Both have WHIPs over 1.5 and yet they are a combined 9-1. Aceves has been great and his 1.03 WHIP testifies to that. But still, those three pitchers have a .904 winning percentage. To put that in perspective, that's a few points higher than the 25-3 season that Ron Guidry had in his best year.

Those three guys have 21% of the Yankees' wins. Their 19 wins are one less than the Royals' 2, 3 and 4 starters have in 70 starts! Yup. They are the Vultures. Now you have another reason to hate the Yankees.

And congrats to Derek Jeter for tying Lou Gehrig for the top spot in hits in Yankee history.

Wandy Rodriguez - Obscure Baseball Player

Face it. Since Biggio and Bagwell left, the Astros get little attention these days. Everyone knows about Roy Oswalt as he is a holdover from those days. The same with Lance Berkman as he is the last remaining "Killer Bee." The Astros have muddled around the middle of the pack most of the year, had a little run a month ago and then watched as the Cardinals got Holliday and roared into overdrive. Because of this middle of the pack thing the Astros have going the past few years, few people have noticed that Oswalt isn't even the ace of that staff anymore. Wandy Rodriguez is.

Wandy Rodriguez? And yeah, that's his given name, Wandy. Wandy Fulton Rodriguez. He's a little lefty from the Dominican Republic who has toiled in the National League now for five years. In every one of those years, he has improved his ERA+. This year, his ERA+ is a phenomenal 148 and that was before another sensational game Wednesday night. Another game that saw him get a no decision. That's part of Wandy's problem this year.

His won/loss record is 13-9. While that seems pretty good, it is another reason why wins and losses do not measure a pitcher. According to Baseball Prospectus, his season translates to a 19-10 season (if taken out over the full season). He's not going to finish close to that. Rodriguez has had three bad starts this year where he deserved to lose. So if you subtract those from his 29 starts, you have 26 starts remaining. Of those 26 starts, he has given up two runs or less 20 times. That's pretty amazing. The only trouble is that the Astros lost five of those 20 starts and Rodriguez got a no decision in five others. With any kind of luck, he should have 18 wins right now.

Let's look at some of Wandy Rodriguez's stats for 2009. After Wednesday night's no decision, Wandy has thrown 182.2 innings and has given up only 161 hits. He's struck out 180 batters and has walked 59. That's good for an excellent 3.05/1 strikeout to walk ratio. The amazing thing about Rodriguez is that his strikeouts per nine innings have increased dramatically after his first two years. In those first two years, the rates were 5.6 and 6.5. Since then it's been: 7.8, 8.6 and 8.4. So he has increased his strikeouts while decreasing his walks per nine innings.

And let's not forget that he's a left-hander that happens to pitch in Houston for half of his games in a ball park that has a left field porch that is easily reachable. And yet, his OPS against at home is .600 compared to .777 on the road. He kills lefty batters and they have a .506 OPS against him. But he's not doing shabby against righties either as they are only batting .256 against him. Righties, however, have hit 17 of the 19 homers he's given up this year.

Wandy Rodriguez currently ranks eighth in the National League among starter ERA+. The names ahead of him are guys like Carpenter, Lincecum, Haran, Cain and Wainwright. That's pretty good company for a guy who most people (except for fantasy players) wouldn't even peg as the Astros' best starter.

On the Nines

With today's date being what it is, it seems logical to play with that a little bit. That's the great thing about having a blog. It's like having your own sandbox. And so here is a little "Nine" play to honor the date.

Pitching:

There are currently fifteen pitchers in the majors with nine wins: Barry Zito, Jarrod Washburn, Chris Volstad, James Shields, Matt Scherzer, Brad Penny, Matt Palmer, John Lackey, David Huff, Rich Harden, Tommy Hanson, Jon Garland, Johnny Cueto, Joe Blanton and Nick Blackburn. But Matt Scherzer is the only one who is a perfect 9-9.

Seven pitchers have hit nine batters this year: Jeff Suppon, Matt Scherzer (hmm...), Kevin Millwood, A. J. Burnett, Tim Wakefield (who has also yielded only nine homers), Jamie Moyer and Ubaldo Jiminez. Wakefield and Moyer's HBP shouldn't count as they don't hurt anyway.

Five pitchers have thrown nine wild pitches: Luke Hochever, Ryan Dempster, Mike McDougal (in only 44 innings), Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum.

Kyle Lohse and Matt Palmer (him again!) have given up exactly 99 hits.

Fielding

Gerald Laird of the Detroit Tigers has given up nine passed balls. Second in the majors.

Fifteen players have nine errors. And nine is the league average for all players: Ryan Raburn, Mike Lowell, Alberto Gonzalez, Michael Young, Mark DeRosa, Ian Stewart, Kelly Johnson, Casey Blake, Jack Wilson (who had to make two to get there last night), Asdrubal Cabrera, Luis Castillo (including that pop up that cost them the game), Erick Aybar, Miguel Montero, Billy Butler and Albert Pujols.

Jeff Baker, a part time second and third baseman has 99 assists.

Landon Powell, a catcher for the Oakland Athletics, gets a special award. When he's caught games this year, nine base runners have been successful stealing and he's thrown out the other nine.

Batting

Ten players have been thrown out nine times when attempting to steal: David Wright, Denard Span, Mark Reynalds, Brandon Phillips, Hunter Pence, Kosuke Fukodome (in 15 attempts!), Dexter Fowler, Jacoby Ellsbury, Emilio Bonafacio and Clint Barmes.

Six players have nine triples: Stephen Drew, Angel Pagan (who knew?), David DeJesus, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dexter Fowler (those two showed up in the last list) and Denard Span (so did he).

Nine players have been hit by pitches nine times: Nyjer Morgan, Fernando Tatis, Willie Harris, Matt Diaz, Milton Bradley, Marlon Byrd, Paul Konerko, Russell Branyon and Carlos Pena (the last of which ended his season). Of these nine, three have also hit into nine double plays: Byrd, Bradley and Morgan.

Corey Hart and Mike Napoli have played in 99 games.

Troy Tulowitzki, Orlando Cabrera and Nick Markakis have all hit nine sacrifice flies.

Eight players have put down nine sacrifice bunts. Only three of them are not pitchers: Denard Span (there's that guy again), Martin Prado and Nick Punto.

Only one player has only nine walks with more than 300 at bats: Delmon Young. He owns this year's distinction as the hardest man in baseball to walk.

Have a great nine nine nine day everybody.

Game Picks - Wednesday: September 9, 2009

Uh oh. Nine Nine Nine. Is such an alignment a good thing or a bad thing? Stay safe out there. Or enjoy something wonderful. Whichever it is, we won't pass this way again for a thousand years and the scores of these games or this game picker won't matter much then. Okay, got that existential moment over with. Now on to the business at hand.

This has been a crazy picking week. The picks have gone from the depths of woe to a glorious high. Yesterday wiped out a bad week completely and zooks, it could have been even better if this picker knew BEFORE the picks that Lincecum wasn't going to pitch. And of course, the Twins continue to mess with the Fan's head. The Royals inexplicably won. And King Felix was done in by two Jack Wilson errors. It's a good thing the Mariners traded for Wilson for his defense. That came in handy.

So we have another full slate of games. Hopefully, today will go as well as yesterday:

• The Rangers over the Indians: Is Feldman pitching? Check. Is he on the road? Check. Pencil it in.
• The Cubs over the Pirates: Those poor Pirates. At least McCutchen is in a good battle for Rookie of the Year.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Wainwright looks like a great bet over Suppon.
• The Padres over the Giants: The Giants are sinking and Zito won't be able to right the ship.
• The Phillies over the Nationals: Lee has thrown two bad games in a row. Don't think it will be three against the Nationals.
• The Bay Rays over the Yankees: This Joba thing isn't working out too well.
• The Blue Jays over the Twins: Halladay versus Pavano. Now there is a contrast eh?
• The Mets over the Marlins: Have been burned by this Misch guy twice now. Not touching that hot burner again.
• The Orioles over the Red Sox: With Byrd in hand, got the Orioles in a bush.
• The Astros over the Braves: Great match up of Wandy versus Hanson. If Wandy hadn't thrown those three bad games in the middle of the season, he'd be a Cy Young candidate.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Verlander should have an easy time of it.
• The Athletics over the White Sox: Just because it is fun to pick against the pale hose.
• The Reds over the Rockies: The Reds hung in there against a good pitcher yesterday and have Arroyo pitching today.
• The Mariners over the Angels: Probably a stupid pick, but Snell has been winning and that makes people stupid.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: Garland versus Haran. Got to go with Haran.

Yesterday: 12-4
Week: 25-21
Month: 65-52

Game Picks - Tuesday: September 8, 2009

Yikes! Totally forgot about today's game picks. Fortunately, there were no early afternoon games, so there is still time. Sheesh!

Today's picks:

• The Rangers over the Indians: Rained out yesterday, same match ups today. Same pick.
• The Cubs over the Pirates: Dempster versus Duke. The Pirates never score any runs for Duke. He's the best pitcher in the NL with a losing record.
• The Phillies over the Nationals: The Pedro ride continues.
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: Yeah, Gaudin is starting. But there is no stopping the inevitable.
• The Twins over the Blue Jays: Toss up. But had to pick one team over the other, right?
• The Marlins over the Mets: Pretty sad when Vanden Hurk looks like a better pick than a Mets' pitcher. Redding in particular.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Buckholz over Hernandez. Have you noticed that Ortiz isn't hitting again?
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Smoltz is a shaky pick against the Bruisers.
• The Braves over the Astros: Vazquez should beat Paulino.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Porcello versus Bruce Chen? Get real.
• The Athletics over the White Sox: Tomko can't do it again, can he?
• The Rangers over the Indians: The Rangers in a Laffey.
• The Rockies over the Reds: The Reds finally lose a game with Maloney starting for them.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbcks: Billingsley should beat Buckner.
• The Mariners over the Angels: Kazmir gets Felix Hernandez. Isn't he lucky?
• The Giants over the Padres: Lincecum hasn't won for a while. He's due.

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 13-17
Month: 53-48

Jason Kubel - Obscure Baseball Player

Those wacky Twins of Minnesota have been alternatively flirting with contending and disaster all season long. Trust this Fan on that one as trying to figure out in the nightly game picks what they are going to do has been impossible. If you asked one hundred casual baseball fans (who don't play fantasy baseball) to name a few of the Twins' players, they would all come up with Joe Mauer, this year's MVP (anyone else would be stupid), Justin Morneau (the perennial all star first baseman), probably Joe Nathan and maybe Cuddyer because he has been there forever. But Mauer and Morneau have a third musketeer in that lineup. His name is Jason Kubel.

The Twins are rarely on national television. So people aren't as familiar with their every day players like they are with the Yankee or Red Sox players. Kubel has never made an all star team and as far as this Fan has seen, he rarely if ever makes it to a national news media outlet either. But the some time outfielder and nearly full time DH is fourth in the American League in OPS+ with 145 and happens to be ahead of Morneau (who is fifth). That's pretty heady stuff for a guy who doesn't get a lot of notice.

Just like all the obscure players in this mini-series, we have to do the obligatory check of Wiki to see who the guy is. From his http://www.baseball-reference.com/ page, we know that he is 27 and bats left and throws right. He was born in South Dakota of all places and was drafted by the Twins in the 12th round during the 2000 draft. The 12th round! His Wiki page (here) tells us his nickname is, "Wolfman." It also tells us that he did well in his cup of coffee in 2004 but hurt his knee and missed all of 2005. For the rest of what Wiki tells us, you'll have to look him up as there is no sense in plagiarizing for the sake of a longer post.

His stats show us that he is getting better and better every year at the plate. His OPS+ numbers have improved every year since he came back from his lost year: 72, 109, 118 and his current 145. The biggest improvement at the plate this year has been his walk total. He has been much more patient and already has more walks than last year with a month to go. After batting .272 and .273 the last two years with identical .335 OBP tallies, his line this year is a spiffy: .306/.380/.537. His splits indicate that he doesn't fare well against lefties as his .672 OPS against them testifies. As such, he does get pulled in the lineup when lefties start for the other teams. But against righties, he hits them all, whether they are fastball pitchers or junk ballers.

The splits also indicate that most of his homers have been to centerfield, which is pretty impressive since he has hit 22 of them and 13 of those have gone to centerfield. He is also very impressive when he leads off an inning, which is interesting.

Kubel is a liability in the field. His RTOT scores are terrible out there. But the caveat is that he seems to hit better when he is in the field rather than as a DH. His OPS as a DH is .200 points lower as a DH than when he is in the field. His Wiki page said Kubel has a strong arm and we'll have to take their word for it. He doesn't have a large amount of assists despite that fact.

Jason Kubel seems to be coming into his own as a hitter and he is approaching what should be his peak years. Along with Mauer and Morneau, any starting pitcher has a tough task getting through the middle of the Twins' lineup. And when the pitcher gets past Morneau, Kubel is no small consolation prize. And that's the way it should be for a few years to come.

The Brewers' Walk Off Celebration

There is much to do going on about the Brewers' celebration the other day after Prince Fielder hit a walk off homer in the 12th inning against the Giants. In what had to be a planned celebration, Fielder jumped on home plate (much like everyone is doing now) and all of his teammates (including old guys like Jason Kendell and Trevor Hoffman) fell down from the shock wave. Guys around baseball such as Torii Hunter and others have condemned the display as did the guys on MLB-TV's highlight show. This Fan's opinion is that Hunter and others should just lighten up a bit.

For Pete's sake, why is there always such a conservative backlash against entertaining celebrations? Owens in football has more fines and penalties from celebrations in the end zone than he has teams played for. It's fun, for crying out loud. Look, if it shows up the other team, the other team can take care of business the next time the teams meet.

And why should it show up the other team? They lost, right? The loss is already being showed up, isn't it? The Brewers have had a disappointing season. Picked to contend, they have fallen in the standings and south of the .500 mark. Yet their fans have continued to show up in nice fat numbers. Why not give them a thrill? Why is it bad for them to be entertained? Why is it a crime for the Brewers to express themselves in a silly and fun way? The game was over. The Fan can see it being a problem if the game wasn't over. But it was over. And it was over in dramatic fashion. They were happy. It was team building. It was fun.

The Fan is tired of people who take life way too seriously. We only pass this way once folks (unless the far eastern religions are right). Why not have a little fun and just smile when other people have fun. It's just a stinking game.

Game Picks - Monday: September 7, 2009

So this game picker decided to take a day off on Sunday. A true day off and the first one in many, many months. After all, it is Labor Day weekend, right? So like any good former Catholic, this picker paid for his transgression as the picks went way south. Way...way south.

But life is all about balancing the scales. If one has to measure a day of much needed rest versus a day of really, really bad picks, then the scales would probably even out. The Fan will take the penance and face the hole that has been dug and climb slowly out of it, correct pick by correct pick.

Here is what Labor Day looks like:

• The Cubs over the Pirates: Lilly versus McCutchen. No, not the centerfielder, another McCutchen.
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: Now that the Yankees have taken a few days off (it must be nice to just rest your players with that big a lead), Sabathia gets back to business in shutting down the Bay Rays.
• The Twins over the Blue Jays: Trying opposite psychology. The Twin lose when they should win and vice versa. With Manship pitching, they should lose. But they'll win.
• The Phillies over the Astros: Happ continues to try to seal Rookie of the Year.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Carpenter is simply amazing.
• The Red Sox over the White Sox: The Red Sox have almost settled the wild card race.
• The Angels over the Royals: The Angels have now won 2000 straight games against the Royals in a row.
• The Reds over the Rockies: The Reds are the hottest team in baseball for some reason.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Keep waiting for Padilla to get real. But not yet.
• The Padres over the Giants: Richard will keep making the White Sox look stupid for trading him.
• The Rangers over the Indians: Carrasco is supposed to be the next big thing. But so was Sowers, remember?
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: Second game of the twi-night thingamabob. Same results as the first.

Yesterday: 5-10
Week: 5-10
Month: 45-41

Game Picks - Sunday: September 6, 2009

If all the games had been played during the day, this picker would have been fine. 5-1 during the day games, the final tally limped in at 8-7. Blah.

But Sunday is another day and the sun is shining so with a sunny attitude, here are today's picks:

• The Twins over the Indians: Holy cow, a Twins pick went right yesterday!
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: The Yankees win despite Mitre.
• The Cubs over the Mets: The Cubs nearly always win when Wells is pitching.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Pineiro should beat Maholm.
• The Marlins over the Nats: Tough game because Sanchez does build much for confidence.
• The Reds over the Braves: The Reds have won a bunch in a row and Cueto looked great last time.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: The Rangers win despite a Holland start.
• The Tigers over the Bay Rays: Jackson should win this game despite a start by the next big thing for the Bay Rays: Wade Davis.
• The Phillies over the Astros: Hamels rights the ship.
• The Brewers over the Giants: Patient teams like the Brewers will allow Sanchez to walk people.
• The Red Sox over the White Sox: Lester rights this ship.
• The Royals over the Angels: Because this picker never picks Saunders.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: De La Rosa gets strikes for every syllable.
• The Mariners over the A's: Fister wins again.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: At what point do we start worrying about the Dodgers' offense?

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 51-47
Month: 40-31

Adam Lind - Obscure Baseball Player

This week in the FanDome, we have been featuring players that seem to get lost in the shuffle. Earlier in the week, this space featured Will Venable. Now we bring to your attention another great young player that seems to be lost in the shuffle. His name is Adam Lind, a 26 year old outfielder for the Toronto Blue Jays who just happens to be in the top five in American League OPS+.

A lot has gone wrong this season for the Blue Jays. They lost a major portion of their starting rotation due to injury in the spring yet started really well. They have Roy Halladay, who is the best starting pitcher in the American League not named Greinke. But their young pitchers, who did very well in the beginning, could not hold up and the team lost 24 games in the standings in 45 days. The team has a lot of great bloggers up there in Toronto, one of which has been featured here a couple of times. But Adam Lind seems to get lost in the shuffle, even among those great bloggers. And he is having a heck of a season.

Lind is from Muncie, Indiana, and was drafted out of high school in the eighth round by the Twins. But he decided to play college ball instead and played two years for the University of Southern Alabama. He was drafted after his sophomore year by the Blue Jays in the third round in 2004. If you want to read more, see his Wiki page.

In two short years, he made his major league debut in 2006 as he got the old cup of coffee and played in 18 games. The next two years, he played about half of the Blue Jays games and after a tough 2007, showed some signs of what he could do playing part time in 2008. This year, he has blossomed into one of the best sluggers in the league.

Cito Gaston has penciled Lind into the lineup consistently and Lind has been fantastic. His current line is: .302/.366/.556. He has 44 doubles and 28 homers. His RBI total of 91 is impressive considering that he didn't have a chance to bat in the middle of the order until late in the year. Those places were inexplicably filled by the likes of Vernon Wells and Kevin Millar. This Fan has a feeling that Lind will be spending a lot of time there now for a very long time.

If you asked a hundred people who led the American League in extra base hits, it's a good bet that none would answer Adam Lind. But that's the guy. He's also in the top ten in eleven other offensive categories.

Adam Lind isn't that great an outfielder. He has slightly better than league average range, but his RTOT and other stats aren't great. But hopefully he'll improve there and not get relegated to the DH spot where he has batted in 75 games this year.

Adam Lind has arrived and sooner or later, someone will notice.

Game Picks - Saturday: September 5, 2009

Okay, now that's MUCH better. The world is a rosier place this morning after a really good night of game picks. And it could have been better! The Diamondbacks blew a save for Haren and old friend, Jason Giambi got the clutch hit. Who saw that coming? The Padres, LeBlanc, lived up to his name and despite his 6.06 ERA, totally shut down the Dodgers. The doggedly determined Twins lost another game to a bad team. And the Mets beat the Cubs as the normally reliable Grabow imploded. But despite those blemishes, everything went just right!

Saturday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Okay, the Yankees went on their one day Halladay. Now it's back to the gravy train.
• The Cubs over the Mets: Figueroa has been good of late for the Mets, but Harden should win.
• The Brewers over the Giants: When two pitchers (Cain and Gallardo) seem equal, go with the better hitting team.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: The Rangers have to keep winning. They are not out of it. But they have to win.
• The White Sox over the Red Sox: Wakefield versus Floyd. It never is a good idea to pick the guy coming off the disabled list.
• The Twins over the Indians: Home Run Baker versus Masterson. A game fraught with danger.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Hate to pick against Ohlendorf, but geez, the Cardinals are good.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: Hate picking against Livan. Heh.
• The Astros over the Phillies: Oswalt lives for games like this.
• The Bay Rays over the Tigers: Can pick a win for Galarraga.
• The Braves over the Reds: The Reds have been hot and Kip Wells has been...well...surprising. But things get back to normal here.
• The Royals over the Angels: Have to root for Greinke, but the Royals will need to score two runs. Can they do it?
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: Just can't pick Contreras to win for his new team. Just can't do it.
• The Mariners over the Athletics: French over Anderson. Two good young pitchers.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Latos has been good, but the Dodgers have to break out some time.

Yesterday: 11-4
Week: 43-40
Month: 32-24

Pedro Out Duels Lincecum

Just a quick note here. Wasn't it cool to see Pedro Martinez throw such a good game? Granted, the Giants can't hit worth a lick, but still, even bad hitting teams will hit against a weak pitcher. Pedro worked seven innings. Seven! And struck out nine. What a cool story!

An Uggla Incident in Florida

Perhaps you've heard about the ugly little incident in south Florida between Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla? If not, you can catch up here. The linked article is typical of the media reaction to the incident. The typical take is that Ramirez is blindly talented, but doesn't always focus and work hard. The typical take is that this was another example of his teammates goading him on the greatness. That's a bunch of malarkey, frankly. This is a case of petty jealousy and nothing more.

The incident apparently started when Ramirez pulled himself from a game because his hamstring hurt. Apparently, he told his manager he could play and when a member of the press asked him about it, Ramirez told the scribe that his teammates expected him to play. Uggla overhearing the exchange said he was one of them. Ramirez immediately pointed that out as showing him up in public. Which was the correct reaction. Uggla, who later claimed that he loved Ramirez and was just trying to help him, then made an ugly comment about the money that Ramirez makes. Read the linked article. It's all there.

First of all, if Uggla was trying to help his wayward teammate, he should have done it in private. Secondly, if he was so intent on helping, would he have used such a petty thing about Ramirez already having his money? It doesn't add up.

And why does the press buy into this stuff? Is it because Uggla and Wes Helms (we'll get to him in a minute) are white and Ramirez is a dark Hispanic? That must mean that Ramirez is on the lazy side, right? That must mean that he's immature, right? Oh please.

All the Fan knows is that Ramirez has been on base 224 times and Uggla 196. Ramirez has 267 total bases and Uggla has 210. Ramirez has eight errors and Uggla eleven. The only categories that Uggla has over Ramirez is games played (by five), homers and walks. Everything else is all Ramirez. Let's put it another way. Say they both worked for an ice cream stand. Ramirez is supposedly lazy and not as committed as Uggla. Even so, Ramirez makes 267 ice cream cones to Uggla's 210 even though Uggla TRIES so much harder. This Fan still thinks he'd give Ramirez the raise and not Uggla.

And what of Wes Helms? The article states that he got on Hanley's case a while back and that he works with Ramirez on his focus and such. Excuse the Fan for wondering, but Helms has a 90 OPS+ and a 93+ OPS for his career. Why, exactly is he the de facto leader and expert on stellar play and focus?

Call this for what it was. It was a moment of petty disgruntlement by Dan Uggla over Ramirez's talent and the money he is making. That's all this was. And please understand the back sweep of the press here. Helms and Uggla are white. There is a press bias that white players try harder and are more professional. That's bull. There are hard working white guys and lazy white guys just like there are hard working Hispanics and lazy Hispanics.

Ramirez has improved his defense tremendously. He's already the second best hitter in the National League. He'll be around long after Uggla and Helms are retired and coaching or managing in the minors somewhere. If Ramirez was a punk and a slacker, he wouldn't be better in the field than he was and consistently improving as a hitter. The guy's hammy hurt, what do his teammates want him to do, tear it completely? It's all bull and the press should know better.

Game Picks - Friday: September 4, 2009

While finishing up (finally!) this huge book job that has taken up four months of time, the scores were checked on occasion and before you could say, "Schilling for Senate," the afternoon games provided a record of 0-5. Yikes! Fortunately, the evening rallied some and this picker ended up only 4-6. But it sure looked grim from the outset.

Hopefully, Friday will be a better day:

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Wainwright should have an easy time of it here.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: Wanted to go with Mock and the Nats, but logic intervened.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: Main Man, Feldman! Go Feldman!
• The Twins over the Indians: These are the games the Fan hates to pick. Pavano versus Sowers. ANYTHING can happen here.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Halladay quiets the whispers and slows the Yankees down just a little bit.
• The Cubs over the Mets: Zambrano? Hey, he might look like his old self one of these days.
• The Reds over the Braves: The Reds are on a roll of sorts.
• The Tigers over the Bay Rays: Verlander strikes out 12.
• The Astros over the Phillies: Wandy versus Lee in a great match up.
• The Giants over the Brewers: Barry Zito has made it hard to automatically pick against him.
• The Angels over the Royals: This one should be a lock.
• The White Sox over the Red Sox: Another hard one to pick. Freddie Garcia versus Paul Byrd? Geez.
• The Mariners over the Athletics: And another. Mortensen versus Rowland-Smith? Who the heck knows.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Kershaw should pitch five good innings against the Pads. Then the bullpen takes over.
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: Not a pick against the Rockies, but a pick for Haran.

Yesterday: 4-6
Week: 22-26
Month: 21-20

Is Miguel Cabrera Overlooked?

The Detroit Tigers are trying their best to stay on top of what is one of baseball's weakest divisions. Despite their struggles, they have managed to hold off the White Sox, before that team took a nose dive, and now the Twins. The Tigers aren't perfect. They have their share of pitching woes behind Jackson and Verlander. Their offense is sporadic at times. But one constant has been Miguel Cabrera, who has been everything the team hoped for when they got him from the Marlins. But how many times have you read about Cabrera this season in the big media outlets?

The guy is a monster with the bat. He is tied for second in the American League in OPS+ (with Kevin Youkilis). He is fifth in the league in total bases. He sports a .336 batting average and .399 On Base Percentage. What more can the guy do? Perhaps if he didn't play in the cavernous confines of the Tigers' home stadium, he'd have more than 27 homers and his name would be on more people's tongues. But the guy has been fantastic and you hear so little about it.

Just like you don't hear much about what Cabrera has already accomplished in his young career. You have to remember that the guy is only 26 years old. He's already played seven seasons. He already has over 1100 hits (almost 1200). He already has over 200 homers. He's already driven in over 700 runs. He already has almost 250 career doubles. Say he plays to the age of 40, which is 14 more years. Triple those numbers and see what you come up with. The guy could be an all-timer and yet there isn't much fanfare over the guy. Even Justin Morneau gets more ink than this guy.

What Cabrera has accomplished in his 26 years is breathtaking. Perhaps a big run in the playoffs or something like that will get him where he belongs: In the nation's attention.

Game Picks - Thursday: September 3, 2009

We are back to the doldrums again. Thought things had turned around but a few blown saves here and a couple of clunker picks there and mediocrity happens in a hurry. The Twins lost a heart breaker in the ninth. The Royals and the Nationals were stupid picks, though they had good logic and our new friend, Will Venable, had two hits. In hindsight, King Felix would have been the pick over Kazmir, who pitched okay but the King was unhittable. Did not see the Red Sox losing with Beckett on the mound. He's given up a rash of homers lately. And finally, the Fan did not have the last laugh as Brad Penny threw a shutout for the Giants against the Phillies. Heh.

Only ten games on the schedule tonight as we have our usual Thursday break for some teams. Four of the games are day games which is always fun.

• The Indians over the Tigers: This isn't a pick so much for Carmona as it is against Nate Robertson.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: The Cards continue to pad their NL Central lead.
• The Cubs over the White Sox: This must be a make up game?
• The Rockies over the Mets: Main Man, Marquis is pitching.
• The Giants over the Phillies: Lincecum over Pedro, though if the Phillies do the rain delay thing again, that seems to work really well.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: The Fan knows that Gaudin is starting for the Yankees, but the team can't seem to lose right now.
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: The battle of the prospects: Price versus Buckholz. Going with Price.
• The Marlins over the Braves: Should be a good pick IF Nolasco is the good one instead of the bad one.
• The Mariners over the Athletics: Somehow Ian Snell is 3-1. Maybe he'll make it 4-1.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Would rather have Garland pitching his first game for his new team over Buckner, who is pitching his first game back from the minors.

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 28-30
Month: 17-14

Will Venable - Obscure Baseball Player

Even when you follow baseball every day with a boundless passion, there are players that remain black holes in the consciousness. If you are an east coast kind of guy, this could happen even more for teams that play on the opposite coast where all the games start at what is 10:00 our time. But even so, most of us know the Dodgers' players and the Giants. They have been on television occasionally. But the Padres? Quick! Name a player on the Padres lineup not named Gonzalez. Yeah. That's right. One of those guys is Will Venable. Whenever this writer hears that name on Baseball Tonight or something, the quick thought is always, "Who?" Oh, and just a random thought: Since the Padres are already sort of invisible, doesn't it hurt the cause for the team to wear camouflage so that you can't even see them?

It doesn't help that the Fan always calls him Max Venable. That's because Max Venable played from 1979 to 1991 for various teams. He was a utility outfielder of unspectacular variety who had a decently long career despite batting .241 for his career. He was like your garden variety Hairston. But thinking Max Venable isn't that far off because Max is Will Venable's dad.

Another problem is that Venable reminds this writer of the word, "Venerable," which evokes an old guy. But Will Venable isn't an old guy, he just evokes one. Well, the Fan has had this dark spot for too long so it is time to figure out who this Venable guy is. The Fan figured he would take you along for the ride.

William D. Venable was born (according to his Wiki page) in 1982. The Fan already mentioned that he is the son of William McKinley Venable. Yeah, that's Max's real name. He went to Princeton, so he must be a smart guy. He is the 25th guy from Princeton to play in the major leagues. Didn't know that. He was just as good a basketball player as he was a baseball player at Princeton and he made the All-Ivy League team in both sports twice. Didn't know that. He graduated with a degree in anthropology, so at least Venable can understand how baseball players are influenced by their social organization and culture.

According to his Wiki page, he preferred basketball to his father's sport and that's why he chose Princeton. That's the sad thing to the Fan. When the Fan was a kid, every kid dreamed of being a baseball player. Now no kid dreams that way and instead would rather be a basketball or football player. The Fan's theory for that seems to be that the NBA seems more urban and hip and guys like Shaq having rap songs helped build that mystique. The NFL also seems more hip with the longer hair and tattoos long before Manny and others brought it to the MLB. But to get back to our topic, Venable wanted to be a basketball player.

Venable didn't even play baseball his freshman season at Princeton, so that shows you that baseball was a distant second in his priorities. But if you add up that he was great his junior and senior years in baseball combined with the fact that he was only six foot, two inches tall, and the writing was on the wall that baseball was where his future was.

After his junior year at Princeton, he was drafted by the Orioles in the 15th round. But he went back for his senior year and another good Princeton season moved him up to the 7th round of the 2005 draft with the Padres. After signing with that team, he hit the fast track to the majors. He was the Padres minor league player of the year in 2006.

Venable fared a little worse in tougher competition in 2007 and seemed to regress a bit through some injuries. But in the fickle finger of fate intervened in 2008 as a guy named Hairston (hehehe) got hurt and had to go on the disabled list. The Padres turned to Venable. He ended up in 28 games for the Padres and managed to hit league average (no small feat on that team) and played the outfield with good range (though RTOT indicates with some lack of success). Now he is a fixture in the Padres lineup.

He has only played in about half of the Padres games this year and has played all three outfield positions, but after a retched start by Brian Giles, he has become pretty much the every day right fielder. He has nine homers and has posted a line of .271/.339/.468, good for a 121 OPS+ which is very respectable indeed. Despite a small sample size, right field seems to be his best position and his range factor is well above league average there as well.

So who is Will Venable? Well, he seems to be a pretty good player, who at 26 should be coming into his peak years. Heck, he has to be better than Giles. The Fan had a blind spot for the guy and maybe you did too. But now we both know a little more about him than we started with.

Game Picks - Wednesday: September 2, 2009

Well, alright! That's better. At least the final tally yesterday was respectable. The week is almost back to .500. Never thought that Kansas City would win yesterday or that the Blue Jays wouldn't take at least one game of the double header. Can't believe yesterday's pick included a pick for the White Sox. They are moribund.

One more week of this major book project and this picker can finally start living life again. 80 hours a week for three months gets to a guy after a while, even if it was a nice little contract. Man, was that a lot of work. Maybe now the Fan can get a few of his own books out before Christmas. Egads! More 80 hour weeks are on the way for that.

Let's get to today's picks before the Fan falls back asleep:

• The Reds over the Pirates: Might as well go for the sweep.
• The Twins over the White Sox: Wonder if Buehrle wishes he were traded too.
• The Cubs over the Astros: Yeah, NOW Bradley starts to hit. Lilly should get the win over Paulino.
• The Nationals over the Padres: Stuck with Lannon all year. Come on, big guy, give the Fan a win.
• The Royals over the Athletics: Probably a day too late with this pick, but maybe Bannister can, you know, like win a game?
• The Angels over the Mariners: Kazmir wins his Angels' debut against King Felix and the Mariners.
• The Phillies over the Giants: Happ versus (hehehehe) Brad Penny.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Sabathia should win this one easy.
• The Tigers over the Indians: Porcello versus Laffey. Got to go with Porcello.
• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: Beckett gets back on track as the Bay Rays are toast for 2009.
• The Braves over the Marlins: Got to go with Vazquez over Vande (the Incredible) Hurk.
• The Rangers over the Blue Jays: Hunter shoots down the Blue Jays.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Carpenter should beat Bush, no?
• The Rockies over the Mets: Okay, Redding was decent last time out, but this time? Uh...no.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Billingsley versus Scherzer. Thome gets a pinch hit and very expensive single in his debut.

Yesterday: 10-6
Week: 21-22
Month: 10-6

Dodgers and Rockies Try to Gear Up - White Sox Give Up

Three big deals occurred last night that beat the deadline for post season rosters. The Dodgers got Jim Thome from the White Sox for cash and a minor league player to essentially pinch hit since he can't play first base. The Dodgers also acquired Jon Garland from the Diamondbacks to bolster their rotation (too bad for knuckleballer, Haeger) for a player to be named later. And the White Sox also sent Contreras to the Rockies.

American League pitchers have a history of doing well after being traded to the National League. So perhaps Contreras can contribute for the Rockies after an abysmal season for the White Sox. Perhaps just getting away from his manager will take some of the pressure off of him.

Thome can't play in the field, so he becomes a pretty expensive pinch hitter for the rest of the season and post season. He may hit a homer or three to win a game or two for his new team. The biggest benefit he'll provide is a boost to Manny Ramirez and his morale. The two played together in Cleveland and really like each other.

Garland should help the Dodgers a lot. He is coming off a great start from this past week and appears to be peaking as the season goes along. He should be worth a win or two. Plus, he is familiar to pitching in the American League and that should help the Dodgers in the post season if they get to the World Series.

The moves prove the Rockies and the Dodgers are serious and ready to spend a little to get the job done. The moves also indicate that the White Sox have thrown in the towel and figure they have no hope to compete the rest of the way out.

Game Picks - Tuesday: September 1, 2009

Man oh man did the month ever close out on a clunker. Those picks could have been traded in at a car dealer. Who would have thought that the Reds could sweep a double header. Who would know the Blue Jays would score more runs in one night than they had in their last five games combined. Some games were shocking and others were just stupid picks in retrospect.

And so we turn the page into September. Baseball's final month should provide little in the way of race excitement. Most of the division leaders are a lock. The AL wild card seems more and more locked up. Only the NL wild card seems to be up for grabs. But the games will go on. September call ups will feature kids getting a chance to showcase themselves. And this Fan will keep on picking games.

Let's see what the new month brings us:

• The Blue Jays over the Rangers: Tallet seems like a better pick than Nippert. The Fan hates picking games when two young pitchers pitch.
• The Phillies over the Giants: The Giants' wild card party gets busted in Philly.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: It's time for Mr. Burnett to get going. Yo! It's September!
• The Tigers over the Indians: Jackson is so much a better pick than his opponent, Carrasco.
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: Sonnanstine gets to do his Nolasco impression on why he shouldn't have gone to the minors.
• The Reds over the Pirates: Might as well sweep them patch wearers.
• The Braves over the Marlins: Hanson should beat Sanchez.
• The Astros over the Cubs: Should go with Moehler. After all, Saunders with his ERA over 5, threw a three hitter last night.
• The White Sox over the Twins: Danks versus Manship. Manship?
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Pineiro versus Looper. This one seems too easy.
• The Rangers over the Blue Jays: Second game of a day/night thingamabob.
• The Rockies over the Mets: The poor Mets...
• The Padres over the Nationals: Richard proves once again that the White Sox were stupid to trade him for Peavy who may never pitch again.
• The Athletics over the Royals: Because one of these bad teams has to win.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Padilla hasn't lost interest yet.
• The Angels over the Mariners: Because picking the Mariners last night was stupid.

Yesterday: 4-8 Yuck!
Week: 11-16 Amateur!
Month: 201-196 (final) Just made it!

Facebook, Pictures and Vanity

The Fan tweets. Now there is something the Fan never would have predicted five years ago. Anyway, a couple of weeks ago, the Fan tweeted (stupid, isn't it?) that Facebook has become a new part of his life. But what on earth is the proper use of Facebook? The Fan just doesn't get it.

The Fan was an early pioneer of AOL and also IRC (a chatting system). In fact, the Fan was on AOL so early that the screen name didn't need any numbers on it and chatting meant 24 baud and dial up connections. At the time, those places made sense. You met people, you bonded with some, had "bashes" where you met some of them face to face. It was an interaction of sorts with people that ordinarily you would never meet. That made sense (at least in that point in the Fan's life). The Fan hasn't "chatted" in ages.

The Fan was also a bulletin board kind of guy. Remember those? Those made sense in a pioneering sort of way. Facebook seems to be an amalgam of all those things except the chatting isn't in real time nor as personal and there are lots of confusing things like surveys up the yin yang and a bunch of requests from old acquaintances for friendship. Well, okay, that's nice and all. But a lot of times, the Fan ends up approving friend requests with people he would just as soon forget, but has to approve them anyway to prevent being rude. A lot of people use it for business and contacts. Well, the Fan is in business, but doesn't see the point. Perhaps the Fan is just being obtuse.

The Fan's wife loves Facebook. Then again, she loved AOL and still goes there when she wants to browse the web. The Fan thinks that's silly but keeps his mouth shut. Perhaps she has a fondness for AOL because that's where she met and fell in love with her Fan. Anyway, she is on Facebook and she was disparaging the Fan's picture there. "It's a stupid picture," she says, "and it doesn't do you justice."

So, since the Fan loves his wife, he patiently sat for her as she took a new picture. The Fan dutifully posted the new picture and the wife smiled a lot at that. A few minutes after the picture was posted, the Fan got a "message on his wall." Whatever that wall is. It was from a girl the Fan went to high school with way too many years ago (the power of Facebook). Her words were something to the effect that she wondered how the Fan hadn't changed much and looked much the same as high school. Mind you, the Fan thinks she's nuts because that was 35 years ago. But the Fan has to admit he has aged fairly well. Must be the Sicilian heritage that makes up half of who the Fan is.

Now, the lady who posted the nice comment looks pretty darned good herself after all those years. The Fan was surprised she even remembered this old guy because the Fan was pretty much a recluse in high school and was seemingly invisible. The Fan moved away from there right after high school and has only been back twice since.

The Fan has a confession to make. The lady's comments flushed this old geezer like a peeper frog. The blood quickened and the heart fluttered and for a brief second, the Fan felt like a little bit of a stud. It passed quickly when the Fan went to the bathroom and remembered what he looked like. But aren't we funny? Isn't it silly how easily we are inflamed with such vane thoughts? Like Rudolph, we fly through the air shouting, "She said I'm cute. I'm cuuuute!" Silly people. It doesn't take much to get us going.

Once the Fan came back down to earth, he realized that his cherishes his wife and as long as she thinks this old guy is the be all and end all, then that's more than enough for life to be really, really good.

Andy Pettitte - What a Difference a Defense Makes

The Yankees showed little love to Andy Pettitte this off-season. He was given a "take-it-or-leave-it" offer and the notion was that the Yankees had plenty of options and if you still want to pitch in New York, here is what we'll pay you. Many wrote (including this writer) that the Yankees were correct in this stance as Pettitte had become a league average pitcher and wasn't worth big money any more. Well, now here he is, after a brilliant performance against the Orioles, at 12-8 and is (behind Sabathia) the second best starter in the Yankees rotation. So what is different this year than last, when he finished at 14-14 with a 4.54 ERA? The answer is: Not much of anything really.

Pettitte has always been a pitcher who surrendered a fair amount of base runners. He has had only two years in his career where he gave up less hits than innings pitched. One of those years was with Houston in the National League. The Fan will leave that statement just where it is and not swirl up a bunch of dust. Suffice it to say that Pettitte has had a WHIP of under 1.3 three times in his long career, two of those were with Houston. He has finished above 1.4 eight times and his career WHIP is 1.32. So Pettitte has always had a lot of people on base.

But the guy has a .630 lifetime winning percentage! He just knows how to win. He's savvy and a big-game pitcher and all those other cliches you want to throw around. But the best thing about Pettitte has always been that he played for winning teams that scored a ton of runs.

So again, why did he end up with a 4.54 ERA last year with a 14-14 record and why is he so much better this year at 12-8 with a 4.04 ERA? The answer is partly luck and partly better defense around him. Let's compare some stats last year and this.

Last year, Pettitte had a WHIP of 1.412. This year is 1.400 (before Monday's one-hitter). Last year, Pettitte gave up 10.3 hits per nine innings. This year it's 9.3. Aha! There's the one difference. Let's keep going. His walks per nine innings are up this year from last year and his career average. His strikeouts per nine are exactly the same as last year and slightly higher than his career average. His homers per nine innings is up from last year (let's call that the Yankee Stadium Effect).

So Pettitte is pretty much the same pitcher he was a year ago except for the hits per nine innings. That's where BABIP comes into play. BABIP measures the batting average of balls hit in play. Last year, Pettitte's BABIP was around .340. This year, it's just over the league average and a little over .300. That's a huge difference. So part of that means that Pettitte has been luckier this year than last and that last year, he was unlucky. The other part of the equation is that the Yankees are significantly better in the field this year than they were last year when they were horrid.

Pettitte's BABIP chart on FanGraphs is hugely illuminating. His first five years coincided with the Yankee glory years and his BABIP is remarkably consistent at just over the league average. Then in 2001, 2002 and 2003, his BABIP jumps, which seems to reflect the Yankees lack of defense after 2000 when they started signing aging sluggers who could still bop, but were anchors in the field. Then Pettitte goes to Houston for a couple of years and those years, his BABIP went way below league average. His third year in Houston, his BABIP again skyrockets above league average and his record and ERA reflect the damage in that 2007 season. The Fan has already told you about last year and so far this year.

So basically, after you break it all down, Pettitte is the same steady pitcher he's always been. He's not spectacular. But he is predictable and reliable and he keeps his team in the game. Last year was a year with bad fielding and bad luck and both contributed to making him just an average pitcher. This year, his luck is better and so are his fielders and his record and ERA reflect that too.

This year, Pettitte is throwing less cutters, curves and change ups. He is throwing more sliders and two-seam fastballs but all in all, he is the same pitcher he's always been. And what he's always been seems to be a slightly above league average pitcher that has been remarkably consistent through the years and it's a darn good thing the Yankees got him back. The telling thing about Pettitte is that Baseball Prospectus charts that Pettitte should have 46 more losses in his career based on the kind of pitcher he is. But the chart also shows the same amount of wins. And 227 wins is a lot of wins.

Joba Rules Redux - Why Bother?

Look, we can all understand the Yankees trying to protect a talent like Joba Chamberlain, but what in the world can we make of the new Joba Rules where he starts a game, goes three innings and pitches just 35 pitches? Besides taxing the bullpen, what in the world is the worth of that?

In a game where Chamberlain finally managed not to walk half of the batters he faced, Chamberlain was efficient for a change and averaged only 12 pitches an inning. He had one inning where the White Sox bunched a few hits and scored a run, but other than that, his pitches were not stressful. Why wouldn't you at least let him go five innings?

The thing about this is that they are trying to save his arm and limp him along to the playoffs. But will he be able to stretch out those playoff starts for very long if you are regressing him to three innings per start?

Nothing about the Joba Rules seems to make sense. John Kruk on Baseball Tonight compared Chamberlain to Felix Hernandez of the Mariners. Both pitchers are the same age and have the same amount of service time, but King Felix has pitched five times the amount of innings than Chamberlain has. Kruk is fed up with the Yankees babying of Joba.

While Kruk is an old-school guy, his frustration is warranted. The Yankees fortunately have the luxury of botching this whole thing as they have a big lead in the AL East. But sooner or later, they have to start making sense of what they are doing with Chamberlain.

Zack Greinke - Cy Young Leader

Rob Neyer wrote a piece last week about the Cy Young award and how most voters for that award will not register a vote for a guy who is not among the league leaders in wins. He is right and many times a vote will be case for all the wrong reasons such as the win/loss record much like the MVP is almost always based on the homer/RBI combination. Some day, maybe, these awards will come to the modern age and stats such as WARP, PitchF/X and other factors will contribute to the awards. Zack Greinke might be having the type of season that will tip the scales. But that's a big, "might."

The way the season is shaping up so far, if the trends continue, C. C. Sabathia would probably win the most votes for Cy Young, especially with the recent struggles of Beckett and Halladay. And Sabathia has been worth every penny the Yankees paid for the guy. He hasn't often been spectacular, but he is a horse that goes out there every fifth day and pitches deep into the game and gives the Yankees a chance to win. There is no overstating his value to the Yankees' pitching staff and what his starts have meant to his team. But he isn't the right choice for Cy Young.

As it stands now, Zack Greinke should win the award. His problem is that he pitches for the Royals, the worst team in baseball. And unlike the year that Steve Carlton had with the Phillies when Carlton had a gaudy record despite his team coming in last place, Greinke figures at best to finish with a record around 15-10. Not especially pretty for a Cy Young winner. But in this Fan's figuring, the best pitcher...check that...the best starting pitcher in baseball should win the award regardless of record (no closer or other reliever with ninety innings or less should ever win the award).

And Greinke has clearly been the league's best pitcher. He leads the league in ERA, ERA+ and WHIP. He has a K/9 of 9.6 and a K/BB ratio of 5.05 to 1. Those are sick numbers by any standard. He also has the best homer per nine innings rate of 0.5. So he keeps the ball in the yard, he strikes out almost 10 per nine innings, while only walking 1.9. He allows less than a hit an inning. And he averages a little over seven innings a start. If the season ended right now, who would be better?

And what a season it could be if Greinke played for a decent team. He has six games started this year when he did not get a decision. The Royals lost every one of them. In those six games where he didn't get a decision, he gave up eleven runs, less than two per game. In his eight losses, he has given up 26 earned runs or a little over three a game. Most of those would have been wins on any other team. In fact, in his 27 starts, he has only given up four or more earned runs four times. So with little stretch of imagination, he easily could be 18-4 instead of 13-8.

The most telling statistic for Greinke is that in his 27 starts, his team has scored three or less runs seventeen times and he is still 13-8. Baseball Prospectus figures that under normal conditions, Greinke would finish with a 22-9 season. That's a Cy Young season, no?

Game Picks - Monday: August 31, 2009

This picker gave himself a Nyquil coma last night and slept in. There were a few sneezes so it seemed justified. But really, a good night sleep was needed badly and as such, this picker went to bed at 9:30. Wow! Haven't been to bed that early since Batman was a television show. As such, with the Nyquil still creating a bit of a mind fog, it doesn't seem that bad that the picks yesterday were again below par. The only thing cutting through the fog is that the Yankees won despite a really bizarre and stupid use of Joba Chamberlain and another masterful performance by Zack Greinke. More on those in a few minutes. But for now, let's just get to the picks for Monday:

• The Bay Rays over the Tigers: The Young Bay Rays hitters are going to jump all over Washburn.
• The Reds over the Pirates: Is the Fan really going to pick the Reds when Kip Wells is the starter? He has no choice.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Did anyone really think Andy Pettitte was going to be the Yankees second best starter when the season started?
• The Pirates over the Reds: The second game a day/night double header. Maholm should win this one.
• The Marlins over the Braves: Josh Johnson should beat Kawakami.
• The Astros over the Cubs: Oswalt out duels Harden.
• The Rangers over the Blue Jays: Young Holland needs to keep the ball rolling for the Rangers and their fading wild card chances.
• The White Sox over the Twins: The White Sox got their butts kicked by the Yankees and will take it out on the Twins.
• The Nationals over the Padres: This picker has to pick Livan to win. It just can't be any other way.
• The Royals over the Athletics: Hochever pitches a good game.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Wolf over Davis. Is Manny going to get going soon?
• The Mariners over the Angels: French fries Saunders.

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 7-8
Month: 197-188

Game Picks - Sunday: August 30, 2009

Well, it wasn't pretty, but at least the night ended on the plus side of things. Not enough to save the week, but a plus record for the month has been all but gained. Zito was great and Marquis was not. The Marlins are folding like a lawn chair thanks to their bullpen. They are winning the game and bring in Luis Ayala? That was a good idea? The Braves buried Lee, giving the pitcher his first NL loss. Should have seen that coming. Buckholz and Romero were both great, but the wrong team won. Weaver was great for the Angels but the bullpen blew up the game. And the Royals were a stupid pick.

Two more days of August and then we are on the down hill slide. What will Sunday bring?

• The Yankees over the White Sox: Don't blame Guillen for being unhappy when he has to pitch Freddie Garcia.
• The Tigers over the Bay Rays: Good match up of Verlander versus Niemann. Verlander should take the day.
• The Reds over the Dodgers: The Reds have been pretty hot lately and Arroyo is due for a win.
• The Padres over the Marlins: Latos and the Padres will make the Marlins look back on this weekend and sulk.
• The Indians over the Orioles: Let's go with Masterson over Matusz.
• The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Halladay is pitching against...are you ready? Paul Byrd.
• The Pirates over the Brewers: Ohlendorf! hahaha! The guy has been amazing.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Millwood versus Baker. Baker has been pitching well. Millwood so-so. But the Rangers should win.
• The Cardinals over the Nationals: Not to Mock the Nationals, but Wainwright will have an easy day.
• The Cubs over the Mets: When was the last time Zambrano pitched a good game? It's been a while.
• The Angels over the Athletics: Like Anderson and the Athletics, but couldn't pull the trigger on picking an upset here.
• The Giants over the Rockies: Cain is the third good pitcher in a row the Giants have thrown at the Rockies and it should be enough.
• The Diamondbacks over the Astros: How come Wandy always gets the tough guys? Today it's Haran.
• The Royals over the Mariners: Greinke needs wins to get up there for Cy Young.
• The Braves over the Phillies: Just like Jurrjens over Blanton. That's all.

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 39-43
Month: 190-180

The White Sox Finally Hit the Wall

Ozzie Guillen says he's embarrassed. He says his team should be embarrassed after making more errors (3) Saturday against the Yankees than they had hits (1). The White Sox have now lost six of their last seven, most of which against the power of the AL East. It looks like this aging team has hit a wall that they can't climb over.

The White Sox have three fundamental problems. First and foremost, they have committed 36 starts to the likes off Jose Contreras, Bartolo Colon, Freddie Garcia and Carlos Torres. Between the four of them, they sound like the latin version of a fantasy camp. The second problem is fielding where they are next to last in the American League in fielding percentage. Lastly, despite some guys who can go deep, they are tenth in the fourteen team American League in OPS. For most of the year, they haven't had a centerfielder that can hit. And they have a second baseman and shortstop with OPS+ stats of 78 and 86 respectively. Add those three things up and you have a team that can make Guillen pretty feisty.

Let's start with those 36 starts. Contreras, Colon, Garcia and Torres are a combined 8-20 with 285 base runners allowed in 193 and 2/3 innings. That works out to a WHIP of 1.47. Let's say that if those starts had come at an even .500, that would make up six games in the standings and it would be the White Sox on top of the division and not the Tigers.

For a while, Scott Podsednik gave the team a spark but he has tailed off and now his OPS+ is under 100 and a .347 OBP isn't that hot for a lead off guy. Pods is 33 now and that is part of the equation with this team. Pierzynski is 33, Dye is 35, Konerko is 33 and Thome is 38. That's five out of the nine guys in the line up that are past their prime. And those are the only five that can at least hit a little. The problem with older guys is that they will get you if you make a mistake because they have seen a thousand of them in their careers, but they can be over matched too at this stage in their careers. Thome is batting .256, Dye is at .264. In fairness, Podsednik is the only one of the five below league average in OPS+. Pierzynski is having one of his best offensive years. But when faced with tough pitching, they are past the point in their careers when they are going to be able to hang in there.

The White Sox lead the American League in errors with 100. They are tied for seventh in defensive efficiency and they are third from the bottom in throwing base stealers out. When you are that leaky on defense, tenth in the league in OPS and have committed 36 starts to guys who have had no business starting, that spells disappointment and has obviously led to another Guillen press harangue.

To top it all off, the White Sox lead the league in names that are hard to spell. There's Linebrink, Podsednik, Pierzynski, Poreda, Alexei Ramirez, Jayson Nix, Dewayne Wise, Lillibridge, Buehrle and even a short appearance by a Jhonny Nunez. Man, that poor clubhouse guy in charge of uniforms.

What is currently happening to the White Sox has been expected here in the FanDome for quite some time. But there is no joy in being right. There is only a sad knowledge that the window of opportunities for these guys is closing rapidly and it doesn't seem clear where the White Sox will go from here.

Game Picks - Saturday: August 29, 2009

This picker got smoked. First, the Phillies have a new formula for winning: Start Pedro against the other team's stud. Have it rain after a couple of innings knocking both Pedro and the stud out of the game. Bring in Moyer after the rain and he wins against bad bullpens. That's twice they have done that! Elsewhere, both Florida teams in the wild card hunt lost. That doesn't help their chances. Homer Bailey pitched the game of his life against the Dodgers. The Brewers crushed the Pirates' best pitcher. The Twins' rookie pitcher out dueled the Rangers rookie. The Nationals were just a stupid pick, though they played tough until Pujols ended it with a walk off in the tenth. Bannister was a stupid pick and finally, Lincecum won the rematch against Jiminez.

Add it all up and it was a stinker of a night for picks. Let's hope today's picks are better. The month only has two days left and a series of bad days leave the monthly total pretty close to being even. Ugh!

• The Yankees over the White Sox: The Pale Hose throw their hands up and start Contreras which offsets the Yankees starting Mitre, or Liquid Mitregen as he is called in the FanDome.
• The Dodgers over the Reds: Because the Fan really wants Haeger to succeed. Knuckleballers rule!
• The Mets over the Cubs: Two clubs thought to be contenders find themselves with an empty autumn.
• The Bay Rays over the Tigers: Robertson? Nate Robertson is pitching? Taking David Price instead.
• The Marlins over the Padres: Nolasco should beat LaBlanc.
• The Phillies over the Braves: Good match up of Lee versus Lowe. Maybe it will rain again.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: Gallardo should win despite another four or five walks allowed.
• Cleveland over Baltimore: Going with Sowers over Tillman, though either is a crap shoot.
• The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Romero shoots down Buckholz.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Feldman versus Pavano? The Fan better not get Pavanoed again.
• The Cardinals over the Nationals: Last night was the Nats' best chance for a win in this series and they didn't get it done. Enjoy the sweep.
• The Diamondbacks over the Astros: Garland should be better than Norris.
• The Rockies over the Giants: Marquis! Zito has been good lately, but got to go with Marquis.
• The Angels over the Athletics: Want to pick the A's, but it would be stupid.
• The Royals over the Mariners: Before you think this picker is crazy, Ian Snell is pitching for the Mariners.

Have a good weekend.

Yesterday: 6-9
Week: 31-36 (Brutal!)
Month: 182-173

Joba Rules Are Meant to Be Broken

"Joba Rules" have become an oxymoron. In a story found on ESPN.com today, it was explained that Chamberlain will go back to his regular starts but be pulled earlier (as if he was pitching far into each game as it was). With his 2009 penchant for running up early pitch counts, what are they going to do now, pull him in the fourth inning after 80 pitches?

First, they were going to send him to the bullpen. Then they decided to keep him as a starter but have him miss some starts to save his innings. Now they have flipped it again in a never-ending game of, "how do we limit his innings without the temptation of exploiting his talent."

The trouble is that Joba hasn't been that great. Sure, there are flashes of what we all expect him to be. But he walks so many darn batters, he is always pitching in trouble and those become what Mike Maddux of the Rangers calls, "stress pitches." According to Maddux, stress pitches are harder on the arm than when pitching with nobody on base. If Joba could focus more on throwing strikes, then he would have less stress pitches and there would be much less concern for his arm.

The stories all seem to focus on how many innings the Yankees would like to limit Joba Chamberlain to this year. It is unknown whether there is an either/or scenario where a limit exists for both innings and pitches. If there is not a focus on pitches thrown, there should be because Chamberlain has thrown a ton of pitches in his weekly five or six innings of work. And again, with his penchant for walking batters and pitching deep into counts, those pitches thrown should be a concern more than the innings are. Things would be a lot easier for the Yankees if Mike Maddux was their pitching coach instead of him doing his great job in Texas for the Rangers. He seems to have a better grasp on how to handle these things.

And so it goes. Another week, a new set of Joba Rules. This Fan would wish that Joba ruled when he pitched a whole lot more often than he has. What he has been doing won't help much in the playoffs.

What Are the Angels Getting in Kazmir?

The Bay Rays, only three and a half games off the pace in the wild card, traded franchise pitcher, Scott Kazmir to the Angels for two prospects and a player to be named later. Manager Joe Madden hinted that he really liked the player not named so that part of the deal must already be worked out. The questions here are: What are the Angels getting in Kazmir and was it worth two good prospects? And: Does trading Kazmir hurt the Rays' chances in their wild card hunt?

What the Angels are getting isn't exactly clear. Kazmir hasn't had a good year and has spent time on the disabled list. But he does have really good career numbers and he has beaten both the Yankees and the Red Sox twice apiece this year. The Angels are sure to face one of those two teams in the playoffs.

But back to Kazmir's year this year. His strikeouts per nine innings statistic is the lowest of his career. His career average is 9.43 but this year, it's only 7.38. His strikeout to walk ratio is also the second worst of his career. He is still walking over four batters per nine innings as he has his whole career. For the first time in his career, Kazmir has given up more hits than innings pitched. The Fan checked the BABIP to see if that was simply a case of bad luck, but he's only been slightly unlucky and as such, his adjusted ERA is still over 5.80. All of these things seem to indicate that he isn't the pitcher--at least for this year--that he has been in the past.

There are three bright spots for the Angels concerning Kazmir (not including the Yankees/Red Sox record). First, he is relatively cheap with a $6 million salary this year, $10 million next year and $12 million the year after that. Secondly, believe it or not, he is only twenty-five years old! It seems like he has been around forever. The Fan didn't realize that he started as a nineteen year old. Lastly, the Angels can't do much worse than the starters they have already been using. Their starters are 24th in the majors in ERA at 4.96. So Kazmir (especially if he pitches like his last six starts) is going to be an upgrade.

The Bay Rays lose a weapon as they have six games remaining against each of the Red Sox and the Yankees. If a prospect is called up to take Kazmir's place in the rotation, those two clubs enjoy feasting on those types of pitchers. Plus, they lose one of the faces of their organization. Six years in that market has endeared him to the fans there and provided a bit of continuity throughout. On the plus side, they free up some salary that can help them keep some of the good young players they have. The team also has quite a few good pitching prospects and received another one from the Angels in the deal.

Kazmir was drafted by the Mets right out of high school, but in (retrospectively of course) one of the worst trades in history, sent him to the Bay Rays for Victor Zambrano. Zambrano went 10-14 for the Mets and is now out of baseball.

Game Picks - Friday: August 28, 2009

Slept in this morning for the first time in quite a while. Needed the sleep badly. But after looking at last night's game results, it still feels like a hangover. After last night, this picker is now in the red for the week and the monthly total is getting closer to .500.

The funny thing is, well at least funny to this writer, the rating on BallHype.com went up because the five games that did come in correctly were mostly upsets. How stupid is that?

Today's picks:

• The Cubs over the Mets: The Mets are starting a prospect and those kinds of picks never seem to be good ideas.
• The Braves over the Phillies: The Phillies have won both of Pedro's starts, but they run up against Hanson tonight.
• The Indians over the Orioles: Surprising how closely matched these two teams are. Probably not what Mark Shapiro was looking for, eh?
• The Yankees over the White Sox: Sabathia has been great lately.
• The Bay Rays over the Tigers: Good match up of Garza versus Porcello. Like the Bay Rays talent better than Detroits'.
• The Marlins over the Padres: The Marlins are hanging tough in the wild card race. They need the wins.
• The Dodgers over the Reds: Billingsley versus Homer Bailey in a good match up of young guns.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Beckett has been a superman after a Red Sox loss.
• The Pirates over the Brewers: Zach Duke has been one of the better pitchers in baseball this year but gets no wins because of the Pirates offense. Perhaps he'll get a win tonight.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Two rookie starting pitchers. Hunter has been the better of the two.
• The Nationals over the Cardinals: The Nats' best pitcher (Lannon) versus Smoltz. This game reeks of an upset.
• The Diamondbacks over the Astros: Scherzer versus some kid named Bazardo. Bazardo? hehe
• The Angels over the Athletics: Surely Tomko can't have two good games in a row. Please don't call me Shirley.
• The Royals over the Mariners: Go Bannister, Go!
• The Rockies over the Giants: A rematch of Jiminez versus Lincecum. Jiminez won last time.

Yesterday: 5-8
Week: 25-27
Month: 176-164

Throwing Strikes - Part One

The major league average for walks per nine innings sits at 3.5, the highest it has been since the year 2000. And in this (supposedly) post-steroid era, that's hard to figure. The home run rate per nine innings is up slightly from last year and the year before, but not nearly as high as the Helicon days of 1999 and 2000. So why not throw more strikes? Why do some pitchers and some teams get it and others don't? When everyone is concentrating on OBP these days, shouldn't pitchers be concentrating on not allowing that to happen?

Some teams do get it. The Twins and the Cardinals focus on throwing strikes. And, as is easy to see, the Cardinals seem to throw more effective strikes than the Twins. But the Twins have always concentrated on limiting walks and they are very good at doing so. The Cardinals are the same way. The two teams are one/two in being the stingiest teams in baseball on giving a free pass. The Cardinals average of 2.98 per nine innings is more than a full walk a game less than the Mets who are the worst in this category with over four walks per nine innings.

The top five teams at limiting walks:

1. Cardinals
2. Twins
3. Diamondbacks
4. Rockies
5. Phillies

The five worst:

1. Mets
2. Nationals
3. Brewers
4. Padres
5. Dodgers

The top five are all pretty darn good teams. Four of the five worst are bad teams. The Dodgers making this list is problematic for their post-season adventures. The Yankees, for all their prowess, are not good in this category. Two of their starters, Burnett and Chamberlain, are in the top five in the American League for walks per nine innings. That's pretty scary.

There are eleven starting pitchers in the majors with a walk per nine innings ratio of less than two. They are (in order of stingiest): Pineiro, Halladay, Haren, Carpenter, Buehrle, Pavano, Baker, Cliff Lee, Ted Lilly, Zack Greinke and Javier Vazquez. Every one of the eleven have winning records (yeah, even Pavano). That is not a coincidence.

There are twelve starting pitchers in the majors with a walk per nine innings higher than four per game (100 innings minimum). They are (in order of wildness): Jonathan Sanchez, Kershaw, Parra, Doug Davis, Joba, Suppon, Gallardo, Burnett, Zambrano, Meche, Tallet and Liriano. Only five of these twelve have winning records, which again is no surprise. Liriano must be driving the Twins crazy!

Seven of the twelve pitchers just mentioned have ERA+ figures above league average because they have the stuff to get out of trouble. Guys like Kershaw, Gallardo, Zambrano, Burnett and Joba can all get themselves out of their own jams with their stuff. But you have to wonder how good they could all be if they could just throw more strikes more effectively. Their wildness leads to high pitch counts which gets them out of games quicker, leads to more no-decisions and taxes the heck out of their bullpens. Again, when Chamberlain, Burnett and Kershaw get their teams in the playoffs, their ability to throw strikes will seriously effect the outcomes of those games.

It is also no coincidence that the bottom twelve starters in this category get decisions in only 67 percent of their games started while the top eleven guys get decisions in 79 percent of their starts. Joba Chamberlain and Jeff Suppon have only had decisions in half of their games started.

It is hard to understand why some pitchers throw more strikes than others. Those that walk a lot of batters only make it harder on themselves to succeed. Those that can limit the walks have a much better chance at winning. Just ask Carl Pavano.

Game Picks - Thursday: August 27, 2009

Our weather went from low 80's and high 70's (delightful) to downright chilly (high 40's this morning) and that reflects the success of the picks last night. But just like this picker's stubborn refusal to ever get a Twins' pick correct, the picker also has his shorts on. Stubbornness runs in the family. And oh, those giddy Mets who have now lost Oliver Perez for the season too. Well, that might not be that big a loss this time.

There are quite a few games on the slate for a Thursday this week and that's a good thing. And since it is "get away day," many of the games are day games. Cool! No, downright chilly.

• The Yankees over the Rangers: Nippert has been good, but it's the Yankees...
• The Marlins over the Mets: Sanchez looked good his first start back last time and Tim Redding, well, is Tim Redding.
• The Reds over the Brewers: The Reds get another Lehr report and the Brewers are starting Bush. Remember him?
• The Cardinals over the Astros: Carpenter could win the Cy Young with three or four more wins. How cool would that be after missing two years?
• The Cubs over the Nationals: Wells is the Cubs designated winner.
• The Rockies over the Dodgers: De La Rosa versus Vincente Padilla, another pitcher to give Torre some grey hair.
• The Phillies over the Pirates: Happ beats the Happless Pirates.
• The Indians over the Orioles: Laffey versus D. Hernandez. Not a pitching match up made in heaven.
• The Padres over the Braves: The White Sox should not have given up Richard and the Braves are fading.
• The White Sox over the Red Sox: Still not convinced this Tazawa is as good as he looked against the Yankees.
• The Mariners over the Royals: Fister should beat Davies in a battle of bad offensive teams.
• The Diamondbacks over the Giants: When the pitching match up is even, go with the better offensive club.
• The Athletics over the Angels: Because we need at least one upset today.

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 20-19
Month: 171-156

Has There Ever Been a Season Like the Mets' Season?

If the Mets have insurance policies for some of their bigger stars, the insurance company is probably reeling as bad as the Mets are. Has any team in history lost so much talent for so long in one season like the Mets have this season? And it keeps getting better and better. David Wright got concussed a while back and now Johan Santana, one of the most expensive pitchers in baseball history, has blown out his elbow and is headed for surgery.

Remember when everyone skewered the Yankees' general manager because he failed to trade Hughes and others for Santana? The Steinbrenners should kiss the guy now because he saved them a pile of money. Santana always reminded the Fan of a more-skilled Mike Hampton. They have similar body types and deliveries. And Hampton, after more time on the DL over the last five years than off of it, could be what the Mets are looking at with Santana.

Rob Neyer, among others, have publicly wondered about how the Mets have abused Santana by sending the great pitcher out there to pitch for the last month when everyone apparently knew he was hurting. The point is valid and you have to wonder why the Mets would have risked their biggest prize in such a lost season. But you have to put some of the responsibility on Santana too who allowed himself to pitch when he obviously wasn't right.

And now the pitcher will be out for a long time as he has to undergo surgery. Nobody has said yet whether it will be Tommy John surgery, but that's what will probably happen. If it does, you're looking at a year or more until we see Santana again.

Meanwhile, the Mets have to be wondering what the heck is happening. Let's add it all up again: Beltran, Delgado, Reyes, Maine, Putz and now Santana. That's a lot of talent shelved for a long period of time. The result is predictable and the team has now gone 29-47 since the end of May. That .383 winning percentage during that time is more like the Royals than the team that was supposed to win the division this year.

But injuries only appear to be part of the story for this club. Minaya has been erratic from the GM seat and Jerry Manuel is not inspiring as a manager. Manuel's record since taking over for Willie Randolph is now 57-68 and he has been roundly criticized on his handling of David Wright's concussion and now Santana's elbow. Perhaps that is justified and perhaps just as much of Manuel's record is justified by all the injuries. But it still seems that the Mets would be well served to clean house and start over.

Perhaps Bobby Valentine is available?

Game Picks - Wednesday: August 26, 2009

The Rockies are amazing. That's all there is to it. Once again, they rattled the Dodgers cages and are now within two games of their rival. This picker needs to get on the ball and remember which team is playing better at the moment. Besides that bit of a picking problem, the Rangers toasted Joba Chamberlain but the Yankees almost came all the way back to win and fell a run short. The Blue Jays were a stupid pick. The Braves have no discernible offense and keep screwing up those picks. The Brewers have become one of the worst teams in the National League and this picker still can't believe it. The Diamondbacks' Haren couldn't stop the Giants. The Athletics were a stupid pick and the Wandy/Wainwright duel was everything this picker thought it would be, but the wrong team won. There were six total hits in that contest. Pujols, though, was the difference.

And so, it was a below average night of picks but because the Fan correctly picked the Pirates, the Nationals and the Tigers, a lot of points were picked up at good old, screwy BallHype.com. At least there was a silver lining to that cloud even if it's a stupid one. Let's get to Wednesday's picks:

• The Royals over the Indians: Hochever versus Huff. This is not an inspired pick.
• The Tigers over the Angels: Jackson should beat Saunders.
• The Phillies over the Pirates: Maholm is a good pitcher but the Phillies should win. Hamels has been very ordinary though this year, so the pick isn't a comfortable one.
• The Yankees over the Rangers: This one should be fairly low scoring after last night's offensive show.
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Kazmir seems to be back to his old self while the Bay Rays are gearing to make a run at the wild card.
• The Braves over the Padres: Kawakami versus Stauffer. Consider this pick your stocking Stauffer.
• The Marlins over the Mets: Josh Johnson should have his way with the Mets in this one.
• The White Sox over the Red Sox: Wakefield is back, but the wheezers of Chicago should enjoy his slower stuff.
• The Nationals over the Cubs: Livan lives! And he's back in Washington! hehehehehehehe.
• The Brewers over the Reds: The Reds are starting Kip Wells. Oy vey.
• The Orioles over the Twins: Guthrie was good last time out. And he has probably suckered this picker again.
• The Cardinals over the Astros: Pineiro out duels Oswalt.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: This picker is a slow learner, isn't he?
• The Mariners over the A's: Really like this French kid.
• The Diamondbacks over the Giants: Does anybody still think the Giants have a chance in the wild card? Nope.

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 20-19
Month: 171-156

Game Picks - Tuesday: August 24, 2009

Just a little behind today. No doubt you have noticed. Picked correctly six out of nine last night, which is better than things have been lately.

Since it's late, let's get right to the picks:

• The Pirates over the Phillies: Yeah, this is a stupid pick. But Ohlendorf has been like an incredible Strat-O-Matic baseball player. Have to stick with him.
• The Yankees over the Rangers: Yankees at home spells trouble for the Rangers and Millwood.
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Toronto is at home and Shields has been unreliable.
• The Braves over the Padres: Latos has been good, but Jurrjens should win.
• The Marlins over the Mets: Don't like either West or Figueroa. But somebody has to win.
• The Red Sox over the White Sox: The White Sox are starting Freddie Garcia again. They are kidding right? It's the worst return of Freddie since the horror movies.
• The Brewers over the Reds: The Brewers hit homers. Arroyo is prone to them.
• The Nationals over the Cubs: If the Fan is correct on this one, the Cubs are surely dead.
• The Twins over the Orioles: Matusz versus Gambino? Who? Sounds like a mafia fight.
• The Royals over the Indians: Can Greinke get some support? Maybe against Masterson he can.
• The Astros over the Cardinals: Wandy versus Wainwright in a great match up.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: But Kershaw has to come up big for this to be right.
• The Tigers over the Angels: Washburn can pretend he is still in the AL West for this one.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: Anderson versus Rowland-Smith. Two good looking young pitchers.
• The Diamondbacks over the Giants: Haran versus Cain in another great match up.

Yesterday: 6-3
Week: 13-11
Month: 164-148