Game Picks - Wednesday: September 16, 2009

A little fight. A lot of bad baseball. Some major surprises (the Royals beating the Tigers again!) and it all added up to a sub-par day of picking. More on the fight in the next post. In fact, this picker is so anxious to get to the fight that we'll dispense with any further meanderings and get right to the picks for Wednesday:

• The Twins over the Indians: The question here is whether the Indians will get more runs than Grady Sizemore will have off-season surgeries.
• The Marlins over the Cardinals: Looking for Josh Johnson to come up big against Pineiro.
• The Dodgers over the Pirates: The Dodgers got yet another walks off win last night. Like the Fan said, poor Zach Duke can't catch a break. That was the Pirates best chance to win a game this series.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Going with an experienced pitcher (Davis) over and inexperienced one (Mujica).
• The Phillies over the Nationals: Really want to pick Livan to win, but that wouldn't be responsible.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: The Rays might as well win a few after losing their season.
• The Royals over the Tigers: The Tigers suddenly seem like the Royals and the Royals seem like the Tigers.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: The Yankees kill left-handers and Tallet is pitching.
• The Reds over the Astros: Another of those frustrating picks with two unheralded youngsters. Lehr has looked better than the funny-named Bazardo.
• The Braves over the Mets: Derek Lowe should be much better than Parnell.
• The Angels over the Red Sox: Saunders has been better lately, but is still no picnic to pick. But Byrd starts for the Red Sox. Ouch.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: Another battle of the former contenders. Not much to care about here.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: The Rangers look wasted. Out of gas. Done.
• The White Sox over the Mariners: Gavin Floyd versus Rowland-Smith. The-White-Sox-get-the-win.
• The Giants over the Rockies: Cain should beat De La Rosa. Had the Rockies pegged to win the wild card. Not so fast, eh?

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 26-18
Month: 115-95

Shin-Soo Choo - Obscure Baseball Player

After the Cleveland Indians got off to such a horrible start this season, the bad start itself became the story and the Indians were all but forgotten by the media. And that makes sense. After all, those of us that write about baseball tend to talk more about what is going right than what is going wrong. The trouble with such reality is that good young players having great seasons get overlooked. Shin-Soo Choo (秋信守) is a perfect example.

Choo (obviously from Korea) is having a very good season as a full time player after having a great season last year as a part time player. His current line after 138 games is: .301/.393/.479. The On Base Percentage is particularly impressive. His power is down some from a year ago when he posted a .549 Slugging Percentage, but that is expected over a lot more games played. He strikes out a lot (133 so far) but that is more than made up by his walks and his production.

Choo is only 27 years old and was drafted by Seattle in 2000 as a teenager after he was named the Most Valuable Player in the 2000 World Junior Baseball Championship. He was a pitcher then. The Mariners immediately converted him to an outfielder and he had a very good minor league career. His stats in the minors show a guy who has always had a lot of walks and a good OBP. He got brief looks in the majors in 2005 and 2006 and hit his first major league homer in the latter year.

In 2007, Choo had Tommy John surgery and missed most of the year. The Mariners, by then had one of the worst deals this decade when they traded Choo for Ben Broussard. Yeah, that worked out really well. Choo got into 94 games with Cleveland last year and responded with a .949 OPS. He became a full time player this year, playing mostly right field.

Last year, Choo would sit against most lefties (he bats left-handed), but this year he has faced most of them. And though he naturally has better stats against righties, he is holding his own against lefties with an .816 OPS against them. That's better than league average.

Choo has some adventures in the outfield. He has decent range but he has made seven errors, which is high for an outfielder. But his strong arm has made its presence felt and he has eleven assists, good for a tie for fourth in the league.

Where Choo has really surprised is on the bases. He has stolen 19 bases in only 21 attempts. If he can hit four more homers in the last few weeks, he has a chance to be a 20/20 guy. Looking at his stats in the minors, stolen bases are part of his arsenal. He just hadn't had the chance in the majors to show it until now.

Shin-Soo Choo is one of the brightest young players in the majors and is coming upon his peak seasons as a professional. The Indians made a steal over the Mariners in getting this really good young player.

Game Picks - Tuesday: September 15, 2009

Lessen learned: Don't pick against the Yankees. Not these days. But the day finished in the black, at least barely. Should have seen the Rangers' loss coming. Main man, Wandy Rodriguez, was good, but his bullpen let in all his inherited runners and Arroyo was better. The Marlins scored the runs they needed to score against the Cardinals, but forgot to stop St. Louis with their own pitching. And the Diamondbacks versus the Padres was a push either way, so can't feel bad about that one. But all the other picks were fine.

We are back to a full slate of games on Tuesday and with all of the races pretty much over except for the NL West, the only fun is in seeing who will win from night to night. So let's get started:

• The Phillies over the Nationals: Cliff Lee should have no trouble here.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Niemann is quietly having a very good year.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Don't think the Royals will sweep the Tigers again.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: There. Picked against the Yankees again. Stupid? Well it's Halladay versus Mitre. What do you think?
• The Astros over the Reds: Oswalt versus Kip Wells should be a no-brainer.
• The Braves over the Mets: Hanson versus Misch in the battle of the prospects. Hanson should be better.
• The Angels over the Red Sox: Dice-K makes his debut after months on the DL. Never like those situations.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: Good match up of Gallardo versus Zambrano except Zambrano hasn't shown anything lately.
• Oakland over Texas: It appears that the Rangers' fortunes are done. It's a sad thing.
• The Twins over the Indians: Have been correct with the Twins for three games in a row. This Fan is giddy.
• The Cardinals over the Marlins: Wainwright adds to his Cy Young argument.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Haran has had another great year. But will his team score enough runs?
• The Dodgers over the Pirates: Poor Zach Duke. One of the best pitchers in the league with nothing to show for it.
• The Mariners over the White Sox: Ian Snell versus Freddie Garcia in one of the worst pitching match ups of the year.
• The Rockies over the Giants: Ubaldo Jiminez should out duel Barry Zito.

Yesterday: 6-5
Week: 19-10
Month: 108-87

Game Picks - Monday: September 14, 2009

Three double-headers in one day! It was a giddy day in baseball as there were eighteen games played yesterday. There was also football on the telly and Tiger Woods winning another golf tournament. The morning also saw maybe one of the last fun days of golf on the links before it gets too cold. It was a nearly perfect day. And when the pick results started rolling in, it was like the Fourth of July again. What a good day! Heck, even the Twins' pick was correct. Wow!

So the new week started with a bang. Perhaps it can keep going in this positive atmosphere:

• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: What can you say about the Bay Rays? They have tanked and sunk and just the wrong time of the season. It's even hard to make this pick.
• The Tigers over the Blue Jays: Verlander takes the Tigers one step closer to the pennant.
• The Angels over the Yankees: Another day, another Joba three inning start. {{yawn}}
• The Astros over the Reds: Two of the FanDome's favorite pitchers: Arroyo and Wandy. Got to go with Wandy.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: The battle of the disappointing teams. One of them has to win.
• The Rangers over the A's: Feldman is at home, which isn't as much a lock as on the road, but go Feldman!
• The Twins over the Indians: Pavano versus Sowers. Oh joy!
• The Marlins over the Cardinals: Wellemeyer hasn't started for the Cardinals for a long time. Never good to pick a team in that situation.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: It seems the Padres are playing pretty good these days.
• The Dodgers over the Pirates: The Dodgers found a way to make these last few weeks meaningful.
• The Giants over the Rockies: The best thing for the Dodgers would be for these two teams to split their series.

Yesterday: 13-5
Week: 13-5
Month: 102-82

Phillies Coming Up Roses

Everything the Phillies seem to touch comes up roses this year. Got any manure? The Phillies will turn it into compost that will make the roses grow even more fragrant. The World Champions were deemed at the beginning of the year to be weaker than they were the year before. And though they are World Champions, there was the general feeling that they got where they were because the Mets couldn't close the deal for the last two years. The Mets haven't been a team to overcome this year. But the Phillies have showed they have built a team that can win year after year.

The Phillies won the division in 2007 with 89 wins. Last year, they won 90. They started this year with Kyle Kendrick, a seventh-round draft pick who won 21 games over the previous two seasons on the shelf. Jamie Moyer was throwing meatballs and Cole Hamels was a worry as he had arm problems during Spring Training. They let Pat Burrell--inconsistent, but an OBP machine--walk and replaced him with Raul Ibanez. Chan Ho Park was in their rotation. And sure enough, they started the season 6-8. Jimmy Rollins got off to a horrible start.

Raul Ibanez? They were already left-handed heavy in their lineup. Ibanez was as bad in the field as Burrell. The move was decried by Rob Neyer and other analysts on ESPN.com. This space published a scathing indictment of the move. But Ibanez has 32 homers and the best OPS of his career. We were all wrong (at least for this year).

Carlos Ruiz was a concern as the every day catcher. He had a 63 OPS+ last year (100 is league average). But this year, his OPS+ is 108. And he's doing slightly better throwing out runners.

They quickly figured out that Chan Ho Park wasn't the answer in the rotation and brought up J. A. Happ, a third-round draft pick in 2004 with an rather ordinary record in the minors of 28-28. He went 10-4 before coming up lame. He was the best pitcher on the staff for a while. He was 10-2 before losing his last two starts.

Brett Myers went down at the end of May. They had to give starts to guys like Rodrigo Lopez, Antonio Bastardo and Andrew Carpenter. Those guys weren't very good, but still went 6-4 collectively.

Then, when their pitching was struggling, they got into a bidding war for the services of Roy Halladay. They were the favorite to get him until Boston joined that party. Frustrated, they turned to Cleveland and got Cliff Lee at the trade deadline. He's gone 6-2 with an ERA+ of 138 and a WHIP of 1.073.

Then we heard rumors that they were in talks with Pedro Martinez. Pedro? Nobody wanted him. He wasn't throwing hard anymore and he was asking for too much money. He'd only be a five or six inning pitcher. Surprise! They signed him and he is 5-0 and he has been spectacular, with two shutouts and games where he's pitched into the eighth inning. Truly amazing.

The Phillies depth is horrible. They don't have one back up player with an OPS+ over 91. But they haven't needed depth. Their only starter that missed any time at all has been Ibanez and he only missed 20 games or so.

Jayson Werth is a guy the Dodgers pretty much gave up on. But he has improved every year as a Philly and this year has hit 33 homers and is a force in their line up (and an All Star). Victorino has taken a step forward and made up somewhat for Rollins offensive deficiency. And of course, Utley and Howard are two of the best players in the league.

The Phillies have made all the right moves. Everything they have done has paid off in big dividends. Are they a lock for the NL Division title and another shot at the World Series? That will depend on Hamels and Blanton, both of whom have been decent but not invincible. Speaking of invincible, Brad Lidge was a year ago. What a difference a year makes. He is having a terrible season and the Phillies have had to turn to Ryan Madson with spotty results.

But don't count them out. They find a way to win and they find it with the unlikeliest players. They just have a way of making it work and turn everything they touch into gold.

Answers to Manager Nickname Quiz

The other day, this space featured a quiz on manager nicknames. The answers and our manager's real names are:

Oswaldo - Ozzie Guillen
Johnny B. - Dusty Baker
Thomas Brad - Trey Hillman
Harry Ralston - Bud Black
Wilbur (Wilbur??) - Don Wakamatsu
Clarence Edwin - Cito Gaston

Oh, and by the way, Connie Mack's real name was Cornelius McGillickuty.

Game Picks - Sunday: September 13, 2009

The game picks are were all screwed up this previous week and the results from Saturday's picks, which were made inadvertently on Thursday got crushed. The results are warranted for being so unobservant. But heck, it would have been nice to have at least been mediocre. But Burnett continues to struggle, the Twins continue to collapse, the Rangers continue to sink, the Phillies' bullpen continues to implode and the Rockies seem to be lallygagging.

Ah well. It's another fine day here in northern Maine and a tee time awaits. Time is winding down on that season, and the snow will soon be flying. So that's more important at the moment. Without further blather, here are Sunday's picks:

• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: The Bay Rays have thrown in the white flag, but could steal a win as Garza is a better bet than Buckholz.
• The Phillies over the Mets: Maine is making his first start back from the DL. Those kinds of games never turn out well.
• The Royals over the Indians: Carrasco is supposed to be the next big thing for the Indians, but he hasn't shown anything. Davies was really good his last time out.
• The Tigers over the Blue Jays: Now Vernon Wells gets hot. It's a little late isn't it?
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Sabathia rights the ship. Again.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: The Marlins aren't dead yet.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: Like this Hunter kid. Plus, the Rangers better win or they are dead.
• The Pirates over the Astros: Maholm pitches well and the Pirates win 4-2.
• The Twins over the Athletics: The Athletics are hot so they should win. But with the Twins, they always foul that up. So they should win. Man, those guys mess with the Fan's head.
• The Braves over the Cardinals: The match up of the day with Vazquez versus Carpenter. Carpenter is due to lose and Ryan Franklin is suddenly blowing games at an alarming rate.
• The Cubs over the Reds: Lost in the Cubs meltdown this season is a really great year for Ted Lilly.
• The Angels over the White Sox: Kazmir starts to pay dividends for the Angels.
• The Rockies over the Padres: Marquis is the MAN!
• The Dodgers over the Giants: Brad Penny is a mirage, right? Come on!
• The Diamondbacks over the Brewers: Scherzer versus some kid named Narveson. Going with the more experienced rookie.
• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: Second game of a day/night double-header. Lester should win.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: King Felix tries to hang with Zeirnke for Cy Young consideration.
• The Phillies over the Mets: Another make up game as Pedro takes care of Tim Redding.

Yesterday: 5-10 Ouch
Week: 49-46
Month: 89-77

Game Picks - Saturday: September 12, 2009

Boy is this picker embarrassed. After making the picks yesterday, this picker went about his business and after quitting for the day, started the daily ritual of checking the box scores. None of the pitching match ups made sense. "That's not what was listed!" said the picker. After going back to the picks, it became obvious that this Fan looked at Saturday's match ups instead of Fridays. Duh!

Two things about that. First, the Fan will still take the game results against the picks that were made. Secondly, since the Fan already made the picks for Saturday's match ups, they will stay the same. Here they are:

- The Cubs over the Reds: Did you know that Wells is seventh in the NL in ERA+?

- The Yankees over the Orioles: Burnett was pretty good the last time out. The Yankees really need him to get it together.

- The Twins over the Athletics: Let's see, the Twins are starting a guy with the improbable name of Manship. That means that they should lose. So then they will win. Golly.

- The Braves over the Cardinals: Not high on either Lohse or Hudson at this point. But one of them has to win.

- The Phillies over the Mets: Moyer gets a start. Go old man, go!

- The Angels over the White Sox: Decent match up of Santana versus Danks. Going with Santana.

- The Marlins over the Nationals: One of those darned games when anything can happen. Anibal Sanchez can be brilliant or really stinky. The Nationals are starting an unknown named, Estrada.

- The Pirates over the Astros: Ohlendorf versus Moehler. Moehler will shout: "Ohlie Ohlie in come free!"
- The Royals over the Indians: The Royals just completed a Royal Flush over the Tigers go out and win their fourth in a row.
- The Tigers over the Blue Jays: Jackson should be better than Richmond. Are the Tigers the worst playoff team ever? Could be.
- The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: The Bay Rays always play the Sox tough, but Beckett has to get out of this funk he is in.
- The Rangers over the Mariners: The Rangers really can't lose any games the rest of the way, can they?
- The Brewers over the Diamondbacks: Another one of those, "Who knows?" games. Mulvey starts for the Diamondbacks. Who? Bush starts for Milwaukee. Yuck.
- The Dodgers over the Giants: Padilla keeps showing that nearly any AL pitcher can succeed in the NL.
- The Rockies over the Padres: Jiminez should blow through this game.

Yesterday: 8-4 (all of which goes to show that not knowing the match ups doesn't hurt)
Week: 44-36
Month: 84-67

Randy Wells - Obscure Baseball Player

Randy Wells is a rookie, so it's a bit unfair to expect most casual fans to know who he is. But despite his rookie status, the guy has been the Cubs best pitcher and is in the top five in the National League in ERA+. Pretty darn good for a guy who was drafted by the Cubs in the 38th round in 2002...as a catcher.

Wells is 26 years old and has been in professional baseball for seven years. His year for the Cubs is totally unexpected and is a really neat story. His minor league numbers were decent enough. Nothing earth shattering, but good. The Blue Jays claimed him in the Rule V draft in 2008 because the Cubs didn't think enough of him to put him on the 40 man roster. In order to keep a Rule V pick, the claiming team has to keep the player in the majors the entire season. If they designate the player for assignment, he reverts back to his original team. The Blue Jays kept him for the entire 2008 Spring Training and he went with the club to Toronto. He made it into one game for the Blue Jays and pitched an inning in relief against the Red Sox and gave up a walk, but was otherwise unscathed. But the Blue Jays designated him. Doh!

So Wells went back to the Cubs AAA team where he went 10-4 with a 3.75 ERA. He got a call up from the Cubs and pitched in three games (all in relief) and threw 4.1 scoreless innings with a couple of walks and a strikeout. Nothing earth bending, right? But he finished the year with a big fat goose egg for an ERA.

Wells then started AAA again this year and started 3-0 with a 2.75 ERA there when Carlos Zambrano went down with an injury. The Cubs gave him a jingle and the rest is history.

Wells doesn't strike out a lot of people. His per nine innings rate is only 5.4. But he doesn't walk many either. For a young pitcher, he gets the ball over the plate. He's been a bit lucky has his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is only .286, but he keeps his team in the game, keeps his pitch count down and throws more ground ball outs than anything else. His breakdown of results are as follows:

Strikeouts: 16%
Grounders: 40.6%
Fly balls: 27.6%
Line Drives: 15.2%
Walks: .67%

He's given up only 12 homers, so the figures appear to indicate that batters don't square the ball up very often against him. He has received no decisions on three games where he gave up two runs or less and four of his losses came when he gave up two runs or less. That's a bit unlucky too. Sixteen of his 22 starts have been quality starts and he has given up more than four runs only once all year. That's great pitching.

It's funny how some times these great years happen by accident. If the Blue Jays had kept him, if Zambrano hadn't gotten hurt, if he had stayed a catcher, this year wouldn't have happened. That it has is a really cool story.

Here is a Quiz

Nicknames have always been a part of baseball. We have Pee Wee Reese and Babe Ruth as classic examples. For some reason, we don't expect our managers to have nicknames. But they do. Good examples would be Connie Mack and Buck Showalter. Mack's real first name was Cornelius. Buck's real first name is William. How many of you knew that?

So here is the quiz. Name these current major league managers from their real first names (sometimes the middle name is included). One will be really easy. The rest, not so much. The Fan will have the answers tomorrow.

Which current manager is:

• Johnnie B.
• Harry Ralston
• Oswaldo
• Thomas Brad
• Wilbur (Wilbur??)
• Clarence Edwin

This is an open book quiz. Good luck.

Hit Leaders For All Teams

A comment was made on a previous post on how amazing it is that no Yankee has ever had 3000 hits. But the Yankees aren't the only old franchise where that is the case. Fortunately, another blogger saved us all the trouble of finding out the leaders for all teams. Here is the link. Some interesting stuff here.

Let's forget about teams that are fairly recent in origin like the Diamondbacks, Marlins, Bay Rays, Rockies and others. And there are also those that were in the previous round of expansion teams like the Angels and the Padres. But the Padres have Gwynn and the Brewers have Yount and the Royals have Brett, so the Angels should have a guy with 3000 hits, but they don't. Garrett Anderson leads them with 2368. The Mets get special attention as their leader is Ed Kranepool, one of their first players. He had all of 1418 hits. Apparently, Mets' players don't stick around very long.

But those old teams? The Phillies? They have been around since the 1800's. They peak at 2234 (Mike Schmidt). The White Sox? They peak at 2749 (Luke Appling). The Cubs' leader is Ernie Banks with 2583. The Indians' leader, Nap Lajoie had 2046 with Cleveland. Minnesota, which used to be the Washington Senators, came close. Sam Rice had 2889.

So it appears that the Yankees never having a 3000 hit guy isn't that unusual. Their big stars walked a lot. A LOT. That reduced the number of hits they could get in a year and a career. That explains their situation. But those other old teams? Now those are probably examples of teams that just didn't keep guys around for that long. Ever.

It is an interesting list. And this Fan is sure glad that LoHud posted such a fun bit of information

The Tigers Aren't Very Good - And That is Scary

The Tigers lead the Minnesota Twins by five games and the White Sox by six. They are a virtual lock for the division title. And yet they aren't a very good team. They just got swept by the Royals, of all teams and they are 2-11 against the Red Sox and the Yankees. They are only 27-25 in the second half of the season and they project out to win 87 games by season's end. Hardly inspiring. But that makes them scary. Remember the Cardinals in 2006?

The Cardinals won the World Series in 2006 with a team that finished the regular season at 83-78. A big part of the reason is that their pitching got hot in the playoffs and they had a guy named Albert Pujols. The Tigers have a couple of guys in Verlander and Jackson who could be dominant in the playoffs and they have a guy named Miguel Cabrera.

Who knows if history can repeat itself, but seriously, the Tigers aren't a great team. In a fourteen team league, the Tigers are 11th in batting average, 10th in On Base Percentage, 11th in total bases. They have a catcher (who IS good at throwing out runners) who is batting .218 with a 62 OPS+. They have a pretty slick shortstop who has a 61 OPS+. They have a third baseman who can be spectacular at times with the glove, but whose arm is falling off and is batting .231. Aubrey Huff has done nothing since coming over from the Orioles. Ordonez has lost all his power and Granderson is having a bad year getting on base.

The pitching is somewhat of a better story. With Verlander, Porcello and Jackson, the Tigers have two studs and a third guy who is better than league average. In a five game series, that's enough really. In a World Series, it gets a bit dicey after those three. Galarraga can't seem to get it together and Jarrod Washburn isn't really that good. They have a decent enough bullpen by today's standards as long as Zach Minor never gets into another game. Rodney is a bit of a question mark as a closer. His 1.37 WHIP and his 4.7 walks per nine innings are pretty scary. He's not a guy who strikes out a batter an inning either. So he's a bit of a liability overall.

The Tigers are a decent fielding team. They are fifth in the league in defensive efficiency despite being league average for fielding percentage. They are good at throwing out runners as mentioned earlier and they have a very good fielding infield in Inge, Polanco and Everett.

It just doesn't seem like a team that can compete with the likes of the Angels, Yankees and Red Sox. Pitch around Cabrera and the rest of the batters can't hurt you very much. Verlander and Jackson are great, but they don't seem to have killer instincts. But again, if you think back to the Cardinals of 2006, all that becomes pretty scary come time for the post season.

Game Picks - Friday: September 11, 2009

How easy is it for us human beings to put to the back of our minds the pain of the past. This picker did not even realize what day it was until typing the heading for this post. A lot has happened since that event. The President who got us through that crisis has been disgraced as an idiot. This writer just hopes that the web of protection he created to stop future incidents is vigilant. We may have forgotten, but the danger is just as real today as it was then. The Fan lifts his coffee mug and salutes and remembers those good people we lost eight years ago today.

Apologies if that was a bit of a downer for those of you who just wanted to watch the Fan bungle through another day of picks. Thursday was an off day for more than half the teams, but the Fan was slightly above .500 for the games that were played. While correctly picking the Nationals to beat the Phillies, this picker failed to see the Royals sweeping the Tigers. Really? Nor did this picker expect Oswalt to blow up the joint. The Fan did expect the Twins to confound as usual. The Fan hates the Twins. They are impossible to predict. Impossible.

And so it is Friday and we are back to a full slate of games. Let's see what we got here:

• The Cubs over the Reds: Did you know that Wells is seventh in the NL in ERA+?
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Burnett was pretty good the last time out. The Yankees really need him to get it together.
• The Twins over the Athletics: Let's see, the Twins are starting a guy with the improbable name of Manship. That means that they should lose. So then they will win. Golly.
• The Braves over the Cardinals: Not high on either Lohse or Hudson at this point. But one of them has to win.
• The Phillies over the Mets: Moyer gets a start. Go old man, go!
• The Angels over the White Sox: Decent match up of Santana versus Danks. Going with Santana.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: One of those darned games when anything can happen. Anibal Sanchez can be brilliant or really stinky. The Nationals are starting an unknown named, Estrada.
• The Pirates over the Astros: Ohlendorf versus Moehler. Moehler will shout: "Ohlie Ohlie in come free!"
• The Royals over the Indians: The Royals just completed a Royal Flush over the Tigers go out and win their fourth in a row.
• The Tigers over the Blue Jays: Jackson should be better than Richmond. Are the Tigers the worst playoff team ever? Could be.
• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: The Bay Rays always play the Sox tough, but Beckett has to get out of this funk he is in.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: The Rangers really can't lose any games the rest of the way, can they?
• The Brewers over the Diamondbacks: Another one of those, "Who knows?" games. Mulvey starts for the Diamondbacks. Who? Bush starts for Milwaukee. Yuck.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: Padilla keeps showing that nearly any AL pitcher can succeed in the NL.
• The Rockies over the Padres: Jiminez should blow through this game.

Yesterday: 4-3
Week: 36-32
Month: 76-63

Game Picks - Thursday: September 10, 2009

We all survived that 9/9/9 thing and lived to tell about it. The funny thing is that this picker had to write a check yesterday and forgot what the date was. Duh! That's almost as bad as the former employee who one day in this picker's office asked him what day Easter fell on that year. Duh! All of which is as funny as the time this picker and his former wife were in the video store. The game picker was looking at movies and picked up Gettysburg. The former wife looked over to see and asked the family's famous question: "Gettysburg? What's that about?" She is a great lady, but that wasn't one of her best moments. Hehe.

After a spectacular Tuesday, Wednesday went right back to mediocrity which is majorly frustrating. It's just baseball and it is beyond picking to know what is going to happen. Since any particular night is like the lottery, the Fan has as much chance at going a perfect 15-0 as he has winning that lottery. And you can try to be scientific, but it's problematic at best to rely on probabilities.

And so, like that old lottery wheel, we will now watch what spills out of that old wheel for Thursday in a light schedule of only seven games:

• The Twins over the Blue Jays: Because it's just crazy. Pavano helped the Twins win last night. It's frigging rediculous.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Jarrod Washburn versus Lenny DiNardo, who hasn't pitched in the majors since August 10th of last year.
• The Rockies over the Reds: Because somebody has to win the game that Contreras and Kip Wells are starting. Golly...
• The Nationals over the Phillies: Because the Fan is a nut who likes to pick Livan Hernandez.
• The Marlins over the Mets: Another crap shoot of West versus Parnell. When in doubt, go with the team with more talent.
• The Astros over the Braves: Because the Astros will score three runs against Lowe while the Braves don't versus Oswalt.
• The Angels over the Mariners: The darned Angels are going to win the AL West. sigh...

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 32-29
Month: 72-60

The Vultures

A lot has gone right for the Yankees this year. Okay, that was the understatement of the year. After obtaining Teixeira, Sabathia and Burnett in the off-season, they were the odds-on favorite to win the A. L. East (this writer predicted Boston). But a 91-50 explosion wasn't expected. That is especially so since the starting pitching has been kind of a train-wreck with the exception of Sabathia and Pettitte. Thank goodness the Yankees have the Vultures.

For as long as the Fan has been a fan, he has heard the term, "Vulture," for any relief pitcher who steals a win from a starter. For example, Hoyt Wilhelm, the Hall of Fame knuckleballer, was 15-3 in 71 relief appearances in 1952. That's a vulture. Stealing a win is probably not giving the relief pitcher justice. Sure, some relievers blow saves and then get the win. Now that's a true vulture. But a vulture can also come into a game in long relief when a starter falters or gets hurt or something and then get the win when his team rallies back. To do that, the vulture has to keep the other team at bay so his team can score that comeback victory. The venerable Jamie Moyer has two vulture wins this season by coming in after early rain delays and pitching four or five innings.

But the Yankees lead the league in vulture wins. And it isn't even close. Yankee starters have accounted for 53 of the Yankees' 91 wins. That's only 58%. The relievers have all the rest. The most amazing vultures of the Yankees are the trio of Brian Bruney, Alfredo Aceves and Jonathan Albaladejo. Between those three guys, they have a record of 19-2. Aceves, who has been the clean up man for Joba Chamberlain since the "Rules" have been in place, is 10-1 all by himself.

The funny thing is that Albaladejo and Bruney have been rather un-extraordinary. Both have WHIPs over 1.5 and yet they are a combined 9-1. Aceves has been great and his 1.03 WHIP testifies to that. But still, those three pitchers have a .904 winning percentage. To put that in perspective, that's a few points higher than the 25-3 season that Ron Guidry had in his best year.

Those three guys have 21% of the Yankees' wins. Their 19 wins are one less than the Royals' 2, 3 and 4 starters have in 70 starts! Yup. They are the Vultures. Now you have another reason to hate the Yankees.

And congrats to Derek Jeter for tying Lou Gehrig for the top spot in hits in Yankee history.

Wandy Rodriguez - Obscure Baseball Player

Face it. Since Biggio and Bagwell left, the Astros get little attention these days. Everyone knows about Roy Oswalt as he is a holdover from those days. The same with Lance Berkman as he is the last remaining "Killer Bee." The Astros have muddled around the middle of the pack most of the year, had a little run a month ago and then watched as the Cardinals got Holliday and roared into overdrive. Because of this middle of the pack thing the Astros have going the past few years, few people have noticed that Oswalt isn't even the ace of that staff anymore. Wandy Rodriguez is.

Wandy Rodriguez? And yeah, that's his given name, Wandy. Wandy Fulton Rodriguez. He's a little lefty from the Dominican Republic who has toiled in the National League now for five years. In every one of those years, he has improved his ERA+. This year, his ERA+ is a phenomenal 148 and that was before another sensational game Wednesday night. Another game that saw him get a no decision. That's part of Wandy's problem this year.

His won/loss record is 13-9. While that seems pretty good, it is another reason why wins and losses do not measure a pitcher. According to Baseball Prospectus, his season translates to a 19-10 season (if taken out over the full season). He's not going to finish close to that. Rodriguez has had three bad starts this year where he deserved to lose. So if you subtract those from his 29 starts, you have 26 starts remaining. Of those 26 starts, he has given up two runs or less 20 times. That's pretty amazing. The only trouble is that the Astros lost five of those 20 starts and Rodriguez got a no decision in five others. With any kind of luck, he should have 18 wins right now.

Let's look at some of Wandy Rodriguez's stats for 2009. After Wednesday night's no decision, Wandy has thrown 182.2 innings and has given up only 161 hits. He's struck out 180 batters and has walked 59. That's good for an excellent 3.05/1 strikeout to walk ratio. The amazing thing about Rodriguez is that his strikeouts per nine innings have increased dramatically after his first two years. In those first two years, the rates were 5.6 and 6.5. Since then it's been: 7.8, 8.6 and 8.4. So he has increased his strikeouts while decreasing his walks per nine innings.

And let's not forget that he's a left-hander that happens to pitch in Houston for half of his games in a ball park that has a left field porch that is easily reachable. And yet, his OPS against at home is .600 compared to .777 on the road. He kills lefty batters and they have a .506 OPS against him. But he's not doing shabby against righties either as they are only batting .256 against him. Righties, however, have hit 17 of the 19 homers he's given up this year.

Wandy Rodriguez currently ranks eighth in the National League among starter ERA+. The names ahead of him are guys like Carpenter, Lincecum, Haran, Cain and Wainwright. That's pretty good company for a guy who most people (except for fantasy players) wouldn't even peg as the Astros' best starter.

On the Nines

With today's date being what it is, it seems logical to play with that a little bit. That's the great thing about having a blog. It's like having your own sandbox. And so here is a little "Nine" play to honor the date.

Pitching:

There are currently fifteen pitchers in the majors with nine wins: Barry Zito, Jarrod Washburn, Chris Volstad, James Shields, Matt Scherzer, Brad Penny, Matt Palmer, John Lackey, David Huff, Rich Harden, Tommy Hanson, Jon Garland, Johnny Cueto, Joe Blanton and Nick Blackburn. But Matt Scherzer is the only one who is a perfect 9-9.

Seven pitchers have hit nine batters this year: Jeff Suppon, Matt Scherzer (hmm...), Kevin Millwood, A. J. Burnett, Tim Wakefield (who has also yielded only nine homers), Jamie Moyer and Ubaldo Jiminez. Wakefield and Moyer's HBP shouldn't count as they don't hurt anyway.

Five pitchers have thrown nine wild pitches: Luke Hochever, Ryan Dempster, Mike McDougal (in only 44 innings), Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum.

Kyle Lohse and Matt Palmer (him again!) have given up exactly 99 hits.

Fielding

Gerald Laird of the Detroit Tigers has given up nine passed balls. Second in the majors.

Fifteen players have nine errors. And nine is the league average for all players: Ryan Raburn, Mike Lowell, Alberto Gonzalez, Michael Young, Mark DeRosa, Ian Stewart, Kelly Johnson, Casey Blake, Jack Wilson (who had to make two to get there last night), Asdrubal Cabrera, Luis Castillo (including that pop up that cost them the game), Erick Aybar, Miguel Montero, Billy Butler and Albert Pujols.

Jeff Baker, a part time second and third baseman has 99 assists.

Landon Powell, a catcher for the Oakland Athletics, gets a special award. When he's caught games this year, nine base runners have been successful stealing and he's thrown out the other nine.

Batting

Ten players have been thrown out nine times when attempting to steal: David Wright, Denard Span, Mark Reynalds, Brandon Phillips, Hunter Pence, Kosuke Fukodome (in 15 attempts!), Dexter Fowler, Jacoby Ellsbury, Emilio Bonafacio and Clint Barmes.

Six players have nine triples: Stephen Drew, Angel Pagan (who knew?), David DeJesus, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dexter Fowler (those two showed up in the last list) and Denard Span (so did he).

Nine players have been hit by pitches nine times: Nyjer Morgan, Fernando Tatis, Willie Harris, Matt Diaz, Milton Bradley, Marlon Byrd, Paul Konerko, Russell Branyon and Carlos Pena (the last of which ended his season). Of these nine, three have also hit into nine double plays: Byrd, Bradley and Morgan.

Corey Hart and Mike Napoli have played in 99 games.

Troy Tulowitzki, Orlando Cabrera and Nick Markakis have all hit nine sacrifice flies.

Eight players have put down nine sacrifice bunts. Only three of them are not pitchers: Denard Span (there's that guy again), Martin Prado and Nick Punto.

Only one player has only nine walks with more than 300 at bats: Delmon Young. He owns this year's distinction as the hardest man in baseball to walk.

Have a great nine nine nine day everybody.

Game Picks - Wednesday: September 9, 2009

Uh oh. Nine Nine Nine. Is such an alignment a good thing or a bad thing? Stay safe out there. Or enjoy something wonderful. Whichever it is, we won't pass this way again for a thousand years and the scores of these games or this game picker won't matter much then. Okay, got that existential moment over with. Now on to the business at hand.

This has been a crazy picking week. The picks have gone from the depths of woe to a glorious high. Yesterday wiped out a bad week completely and zooks, it could have been even better if this picker knew BEFORE the picks that Lincecum wasn't going to pitch. And of course, the Twins continue to mess with the Fan's head. The Royals inexplicably won. And King Felix was done in by two Jack Wilson errors. It's a good thing the Mariners traded for Wilson for his defense. That came in handy.

So we have another full slate of games. Hopefully, today will go as well as yesterday:

• The Rangers over the Indians: Is Feldman pitching? Check. Is he on the road? Check. Pencil it in.
• The Cubs over the Pirates: Those poor Pirates. At least McCutchen is in a good battle for Rookie of the Year.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Wainwright looks like a great bet over Suppon.
• The Padres over the Giants: The Giants are sinking and Zito won't be able to right the ship.
• The Phillies over the Nationals: Lee has thrown two bad games in a row. Don't think it will be three against the Nationals.
• The Bay Rays over the Yankees: This Joba thing isn't working out too well.
• The Blue Jays over the Twins: Halladay versus Pavano. Now there is a contrast eh?
• The Mets over the Marlins: Have been burned by this Misch guy twice now. Not touching that hot burner again.
• The Orioles over the Red Sox: With Byrd in hand, got the Orioles in a bush.
• The Astros over the Braves: Great match up of Wandy versus Hanson. If Wandy hadn't thrown those three bad games in the middle of the season, he'd be a Cy Young candidate.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Verlander should have an easy time of it.
• The Athletics over the White Sox: Just because it is fun to pick against the pale hose.
• The Reds over the Rockies: The Reds hung in there against a good pitcher yesterday and have Arroyo pitching today.
• The Mariners over the Angels: Probably a stupid pick, but Snell has been winning and that makes people stupid.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: Garland versus Haran. Got to go with Haran.

Yesterday: 12-4
Week: 25-21
Month: 65-52

Game Picks - Tuesday: September 8, 2009

Yikes! Totally forgot about today's game picks. Fortunately, there were no early afternoon games, so there is still time. Sheesh!

Today's picks:

• The Rangers over the Indians: Rained out yesterday, same match ups today. Same pick.
• The Cubs over the Pirates: Dempster versus Duke. The Pirates never score any runs for Duke. He's the best pitcher in the NL with a losing record.
• The Phillies over the Nationals: The Pedro ride continues.
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: Yeah, Gaudin is starting. But there is no stopping the inevitable.
• The Twins over the Blue Jays: Toss up. But had to pick one team over the other, right?
• The Marlins over the Mets: Pretty sad when Vanden Hurk looks like a better pick than a Mets' pitcher. Redding in particular.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Buckholz over Hernandez. Have you noticed that Ortiz isn't hitting again?
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Smoltz is a shaky pick against the Bruisers.
• The Braves over the Astros: Vazquez should beat Paulino.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Porcello versus Bruce Chen? Get real.
• The Athletics over the White Sox: Tomko can't do it again, can he?
• The Rangers over the Indians: The Rangers in a Laffey.
• The Rockies over the Reds: The Reds finally lose a game with Maloney starting for them.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbcks: Billingsley should beat Buckner.
• The Mariners over the Angels: Kazmir gets Felix Hernandez. Isn't he lucky?
• The Giants over the Padres: Lincecum hasn't won for a while. He's due.

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 13-17
Month: 53-48

Jason Kubel - Obscure Baseball Player

Those wacky Twins of Minnesota have been alternatively flirting with contending and disaster all season long. Trust this Fan on that one as trying to figure out in the nightly game picks what they are going to do has been impossible. If you asked one hundred casual baseball fans (who don't play fantasy baseball) to name a few of the Twins' players, they would all come up with Joe Mauer, this year's MVP (anyone else would be stupid), Justin Morneau (the perennial all star first baseman), probably Joe Nathan and maybe Cuddyer because he has been there forever. But Mauer and Morneau have a third musketeer in that lineup. His name is Jason Kubel.

The Twins are rarely on national television. So people aren't as familiar with their every day players like they are with the Yankee or Red Sox players. Kubel has never made an all star team and as far as this Fan has seen, he rarely if ever makes it to a national news media outlet either. But the some time outfielder and nearly full time DH is fourth in the American League in OPS+ with 145 and happens to be ahead of Morneau (who is fifth). That's pretty heady stuff for a guy who doesn't get a lot of notice.

Just like all the obscure players in this mini-series, we have to do the obligatory check of Wiki to see who the guy is. From his http://www.baseball-reference.com/ page, we know that he is 27 and bats left and throws right. He was born in South Dakota of all places and was drafted by the Twins in the 12th round during the 2000 draft. The 12th round! His Wiki page (here) tells us his nickname is, "Wolfman." It also tells us that he did well in his cup of coffee in 2004 but hurt his knee and missed all of 2005. For the rest of what Wiki tells us, you'll have to look him up as there is no sense in plagiarizing for the sake of a longer post.

His stats show us that he is getting better and better every year at the plate. His OPS+ numbers have improved every year since he came back from his lost year: 72, 109, 118 and his current 145. The biggest improvement at the plate this year has been his walk total. He has been much more patient and already has more walks than last year with a month to go. After batting .272 and .273 the last two years with identical .335 OBP tallies, his line this year is a spiffy: .306/.380/.537. His splits indicate that he doesn't fare well against lefties as his .672 OPS against them testifies. As such, he does get pulled in the lineup when lefties start for the other teams. But against righties, he hits them all, whether they are fastball pitchers or junk ballers.

The splits also indicate that most of his homers have been to centerfield, which is pretty impressive since he has hit 22 of them and 13 of those have gone to centerfield. He is also very impressive when he leads off an inning, which is interesting.

Kubel is a liability in the field. His RTOT scores are terrible out there. But the caveat is that he seems to hit better when he is in the field rather than as a DH. His OPS as a DH is .200 points lower as a DH than when he is in the field. His Wiki page said Kubel has a strong arm and we'll have to take their word for it. He doesn't have a large amount of assists despite that fact.

Jason Kubel seems to be coming into his own as a hitter and he is approaching what should be his peak years. Along with Mauer and Morneau, any starting pitcher has a tough task getting through the middle of the Twins' lineup. And when the pitcher gets past Morneau, Kubel is no small consolation prize. And that's the way it should be for a few years to come.

The Brewers' Walk Off Celebration

There is much to do going on about the Brewers' celebration the other day after Prince Fielder hit a walk off homer in the 12th inning against the Giants. In what had to be a planned celebration, Fielder jumped on home plate (much like everyone is doing now) and all of his teammates (including old guys like Jason Kendell and Trevor Hoffman) fell down from the shock wave. Guys around baseball such as Torii Hunter and others have condemned the display as did the guys on MLB-TV's highlight show. This Fan's opinion is that Hunter and others should just lighten up a bit.

For Pete's sake, why is there always such a conservative backlash against entertaining celebrations? Owens in football has more fines and penalties from celebrations in the end zone than he has teams played for. It's fun, for crying out loud. Look, if it shows up the other team, the other team can take care of business the next time the teams meet.

And why should it show up the other team? They lost, right? The loss is already being showed up, isn't it? The Brewers have had a disappointing season. Picked to contend, they have fallen in the standings and south of the .500 mark. Yet their fans have continued to show up in nice fat numbers. Why not give them a thrill? Why is it bad for them to be entertained? Why is it a crime for the Brewers to express themselves in a silly and fun way? The game was over. The Fan can see it being a problem if the game wasn't over. But it was over. And it was over in dramatic fashion. They were happy. It was team building. It was fun.

The Fan is tired of people who take life way too seriously. We only pass this way once folks (unless the far eastern religions are right). Why not have a little fun and just smile when other people have fun. It's just a stinking game.

Game Picks - Monday: September 7, 2009

So this game picker decided to take a day off on Sunday. A true day off and the first one in many, many months. After all, it is Labor Day weekend, right? So like any good former Catholic, this picker paid for his transgression as the picks went way south. Way...way south.

But life is all about balancing the scales. If one has to measure a day of much needed rest versus a day of really, really bad picks, then the scales would probably even out. The Fan will take the penance and face the hole that has been dug and climb slowly out of it, correct pick by correct pick.

Here is what Labor Day looks like:

• The Cubs over the Pirates: Lilly versus McCutchen. No, not the centerfielder, another McCutchen.
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: Now that the Yankees have taken a few days off (it must be nice to just rest your players with that big a lead), Sabathia gets back to business in shutting down the Bay Rays.
• The Twins over the Blue Jays: Trying opposite psychology. The Twin lose when they should win and vice versa. With Manship pitching, they should lose. But they'll win.
• The Phillies over the Astros: Happ continues to try to seal Rookie of the Year.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Carpenter is simply amazing.
• The Red Sox over the White Sox: The Red Sox have almost settled the wild card race.
• The Angels over the Royals: The Angels have now won 2000 straight games against the Royals in a row.
• The Reds over the Rockies: The Reds are the hottest team in baseball for some reason.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Keep waiting for Padilla to get real. But not yet.
• The Padres over the Giants: Richard will keep making the White Sox look stupid for trading him.
• The Rangers over the Indians: Carrasco is supposed to be the next big thing. But so was Sowers, remember?
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: Second game of the twi-night thingamabob. Same results as the first.

Yesterday: 5-10
Week: 5-10
Month: 45-41

Game Picks - Sunday: September 6, 2009

If all the games had been played during the day, this picker would have been fine. 5-1 during the day games, the final tally limped in at 8-7. Blah.

But Sunday is another day and the sun is shining so with a sunny attitude, here are today's picks:

• The Twins over the Indians: Holy cow, a Twins pick went right yesterday!
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: The Yankees win despite Mitre.
• The Cubs over the Mets: The Cubs nearly always win when Wells is pitching.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Pineiro should beat Maholm.
• The Marlins over the Nats: Tough game because Sanchez does build much for confidence.
• The Reds over the Braves: The Reds have won a bunch in a row and Cueto looked great last time.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: The Rangers win despite a Holland start.
• The Tigers over the Bay Rays: Jackson should win this game despite a start by the next big thing for the Bay Rays: Wade Davis.
• The Phillies over the Astros: Hamels rights the ship.
• The Brewers over the Giants: Patient teams like the Brewers will allow Sanchez to walk people.
• The Red Sox over the White Sox: Lester rights this ship.
• The Royals over the Angels: Because this picker never picks Saunders.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: De La Rosa gets strikes for every syllable.
• The Mariners over the A's: Fister wins again.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: At what point do we start worrying about the Dodgers' offense?

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 51-47
Month: 40-31

Adam Lind - Obscure Baseball Player

This week in the FanDome, we have been featuring players that seem to get lost in the shuffle. Earlier in the week, this space featured Will Venable. Now we bring to your attention another great young player that seems to be lost in the shuffle. His name is Adam Lind, a 26 year old outfielder for the Toronto Blue Jays who just happens to be in the top five in American League OPS+.

A lot has gone wrong this season for the Blue Jays. They lost a major portion of their starting rotation due to injury in the spring yet started really well. They have Roy Halladay, who is the best starting pitcher in the American League not named Greinke. But their young pitchers, who did very well in the beginning, could not hold up and the team lost 24 games in the standings in 45 days. The team has a lot of great bloggers up there in Toronto, one of which has been featured here a couple of times. But Adam Lind seems to get lost in the shuffle, even among those great bloggers. And he is having a heck of a season.

Lind is from Muncie, Indiana, and was drafted out of high school in the eighth round by the Twins. But he decided to play college ball instead and played two years for the University of Southern Alabama. He was drafted after his sophomore year by the Blue Jays in the third round in 2004. If you want to read more, see his Wiki page.

In two short years, he made his major league debut in 2006 as he got the old cup of coffee and played in 18 games. The next two years, he played about half of the Blue Jays games and after a tough 2007, showed some signs of what he could do playing part time in 2008. This year, he has blossomed into one of the best sluggers in the league.

Cito Gaston has penciled Lind into the lineup consistently and Lind has been fantastic. His current line is: .302/.366/.556. He has 44 doubles and 28 homers. His RBI total of 91 is impressive considering that he didn't have a chance to bat in the middle of the order until late in the year. Those places were inexplicably filled by the likes of Vernon Wells and Kevin Millar. This Fan has a feeling that Lind will be spending a lot of time there now for a very long time.

If you asked a hundred people who led the American League in extra base hits, it's a good bet that none would answer Adam Lind. But that's the guy. He's also in the top ten in eleven other offensive categories.

Adam Lind isn't that great an outfielder. He has slightly better than league average range, but his RTOT and other stats aren't great. But hopefully he'll improve there and not get relegated to the DH spot where he has batted in 75 games this year.

Adam Lind has arrived and sooner or later, someone will notice.

Game Picks - Saturday: September 5, 2009

Okay, now that's MUCH better. The world is a rosier place this morning after a really good night of game picks. And it could have been better! The Diamondbacks blew a save for Haren and old friend, Jason Giambi got the clutch hit. Who saw that coming? The Padres, LeBlanc, lived up to his name and despite his 6.06 ERA, totally shut down the Dodgers. The doggedly determined Twins lost another game to a bad team. And the Mets beat the Cubs as the normally reliable Grabow imploded. But despite those blemishes, everything went just right!

Saturday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Okay, the Yankees went on their one day Halladay. Now it's back to the gravy train.
• The Cubs over the Mets: Figueroa has been good of late for the Mets, but Harden should win.
• The Brewers over the Giants: When two pitchers (Cain and Gallardo) seem equal, go with the better hitting team.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: The Rangers have to keep winning. They are not out of it. But they have to win.
• The White Sox over the Red Sox: Wakefield versus Floyd. It never is a good idea to pick the guy coming off the disabled list.
• The Twins over the Indians: Home Run Baker versus Masterson. A game fraught with danger.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Hate to pick against Ohlendorf, but geez, the Cardinals are good.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: Hate picking against Livan. Heh.
• The Astros over the Phillies: Oswalt lives for games like this.
• The Bay Rays over the Tigers: Can pick a win for Galarraga.
• The Braves over the Reds: The Reds have been hot and Kip Wells has been...well...surprising. But things get back to normal here.
• The Royals over the Angels: Have to root for Greinke, but the Royals will need to score two runs. Can they do it?
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: Just can't pick Contreras to win for his new team. Just can't do it.
• The Mariners over the Athletics: French over Anderson. Two good young pitchers.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Latos has been good, but the Dodgers have to break out some time.

Yesterday: 11-4
Week: 43-40
Month: 32-24

Pedro Out Duels Lincecum

Just a quick note here. Wasn't it cool to see Pedro Martinez throw such a good game? Granted, the Giants can't hit worth a lick, but still, even bad hitting teams will hit against a weak pitcher. Pedro worked seven innings. Seven! And struck out nine. What a cool story!

An Uggla Incident in Florida

Perhaps you've heard about the ugly little incident in south Florida between Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla? If not, you can catch up here. The linked article is typical of the media reaction to the incident. The typical take is that Ramirez is blindly talented, but doesn't always focus and work hard. The typical take is that this was another example of his teammates goading him on the greatness. That's a bunch of malarkey, frankly. This is a case of petty jealousy and nothing more.

The incident apparently started when Ramirez pulled himself from a game because his hamstring hurt. Apparently, he told his manager he could play and when a member of the press asked him about it, Ramirez told the scribe that his teammates expected him to play. Uggla overhearing the exchange said he was one of them. Ramirez immediately pointed that out as showing him up in public. Which was the correct reaction. Uggla, who later claimed that he loved Ramirez and was just trying to help him, then made an ugly comment about the money that Ramirez makes. Read the linked article. It's all there.

First of all, if Uggla was trying to help his wayward teammate, he should have done it in private. Secondly, if he was so intent on helping, would he have used such a petty thing about Ramirez already having his money? It doesn't add up.

And why does the press buy into this stuff? Is it because Uggla and Wes Helms (we'll get to him in a minute) are white and Ramirez is a dark Hispanic? That must mean that Ramirez is on the lazy side, right? That must mean that he's immature, right? Oh please.

All the Fan knows is that Ramirez has been on base 224 times and Uggla 196. Ramirez has 267 total bases and Uggla has 210. Ramirez has eight errors and Uggla eleven. The only categories that Uggla has over Ramirez is games played (by five), homers and walks. Everything else is all Ramirez. Let's put it another way. Say they both worked for an ice cream stand. Ramirez is supposedly lazy and not as committed as Uggla. Even so, Ramirez makes 267 ice cream cones to Uggla's 210 even though Uggla TRIES so much harder. This Fan still thinks he'd give Ramirez the raise and not Uggla.

And what of Wes Helms? The article states that he got on Hanley's case a while back and that he works with Ramirez on his focus and such. Excuse the Fan for wondering, but Helms has a 90 OPS+ and a 93+ OPS for his career. Why, exactly is he the de facto leader and expert on stellar play and focus?

Call this for what it was. It was a moment of petty disgruntlement by Dan Uggla over Ramirez's talent and the money he is making. That's all this was. And please understand the back sweep of the press here. Helms and Uggla are white. There is a press bias that white players try harder and are more professional. That's bull. There are hard working white guys and lazy white guys just like there are hard working Hispanics and lazy Hispanics.

Ramirez has improved his defense tremendously. He's already the second best hitter in the National League. He'll be around long after Uggla and Helms are retired and coaching or managing in the minors somewhere. If Ramirez was a punk and a slacker, he wouldn't be better in the field than he was and consistently improving as a hitter. The guy's hammy hurt, what do his teammates want him to do, tear it completely? It's all bull and the press should know better.

Game Picks - Friday: September 4, 2009

While finishing up (finally!) this huge book job that has taken up four months of time, the scores were checked on occasion and before you could say, "Schilling for Senate," the afternoon games provided a record of 0-5. Yikes! Fortunately, the evening rallied some and this picker ended up only 4-6. But it sure looked grim from the outset.

Hopefully, Friday will be a better day:

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Wainwright should have an easy time of it here.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: Wanted to go with Mock and the Nats, but logic intervened.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: Main Man, Feldman! Go Feldman!
• The Twins over the Indians: These are the games the Fan hates to pick. Pavano versus Sowers. ANYTHING can happen here.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Halladay quiets the whispers and slows the Yankees down just a little bit.
• The Cubs over the Mets: Zambrano? Hey, he might look like his old self one of these days.
• The Reds over the Braves: The Reds are on a roll of sorts.
• The Tigers over the Bay Rays: Verlander strikes out 12.
• The Astros over the Phillies: Wandy versus Lee in a great match up.
• The Giants over the Brewers: Barry Zito has made it hard to automatically pick against him.
• The Angels over the Royals: This one should be a lock.
• The White Sox over the Red Sox: Another hard one to pick. Freddie Garcia versus Paul Byrd? Geez.
• The Mariners over the Athletics: And another. Mortensen versus Rowland-Smith? Who the heck knows.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Kershaw should pitch five good innings against the Pads. Then the bullpen takes over.
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: Not a pick against the Rockies, but a pick for Haran.

Yesterday: 4-6
Week: 22-26
Month: 21-20

Is Miguel Cabrera Overlooked?

The Detroit Tigers are trying their best to stay on top of what is one of baseball's weakest divisions. Despite their struggles, they have managed to hold off the White Sox, before that team took a nose dive, and now the Twins. The Tigers aren't perfect. They have their share of pitching woes behind Jackson and Verlander. Their offense is sporadic at times. But one constant has been Miguel Cabrera, who has been everything the team hoped for when they got him from the Marlins. But how many times have you read about Cabrera this season in the big media outlets?

The guy is a monster with the bat. He is tied for second in the American League in OPS+ (with Kevin Youkilis). He is fifth in the league in total bases. He sports a .336 batting average and .399 On Base Percentage. What more can the guy do? Perhaps if he didn't play in the cavernous confines of the Tigers' home stadium, he'd have more than 27 homers and his name would be on more people's tongues. But the guy has been fantastic and you hear so little about it.

Just like you don't hear much about what Cabrera has already accomplished in his young career. You have to remember that the guy is only 26 years old. He's already played seven seasons. He already has over 1100 hits (almost 1200). He already has over 200 homers. He's already driven in over 700 runs. He already has almost 250 career doubles. Say he plays to the age of 40, which is 14 more years. Triple those numbers and see what you come up with. The guy could be an all-timer and yet there isn't much fanfare over the guy. Even Justin Morneau gets more ink than this guy.

What Cabrera has accomplished in his 26 years is breathtaking. Perhaps a big run in the playoffs or something like that will get him where he belongs: In the nation's attention.

Game Picks - Thursday: September 3, 2009

We are back to the doldrums again. Thought things had turned around but a few blown saves here and a couple of clunker picks there and mediocrity happens in a hurry. The Twins lost a heart breaker in the ninth. The Royals and the Nationals were stupid picks, though they had good logic and our new friend, Will Venable, had two hits. In hindsight, King Felix would have been the pick over Kazmir, who pitched okay but the King was unhittable. Did not see the Red Sox losing with Beckett on the mound. He's given up a rash of homers lately. And finally, the Fan did not have the last laugh as Brad Penny threw a shutout for the Giants against the Phillies. Heh.

Only ten games on the schedule tonight as we have our usual Thursday break for some teams. Four of the games are day games which is always fun.

• The Indians over the Tigers: This isn't a pick so much for Carmona as it is against Nate Robertson.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: The Cards continue to pad their NL Central lead.
• The Cubs over the White Sox: This must be a make up game?
• The Rockies over the Mets: Main Man, Marquis is pitching.
• The Giants over the Phillies: Lincecum over Pedro, though if the Phillies do the rain delay thing again, that seems to work really well.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: The Fan knows that Gaudin is starting for the Yankees, but the team can't seem to lose right now.
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: The battle of the prospects: Price versus Buckholz. Going with Price.
• The Marlins over the Braves: Should be a good pick IF Nolasco is the good one instead of the bad one.
• The Mariners over the Athletics: Somehow Ian Snell is 3-1. Maybe he'll make it 4-1.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Would rather have Garland pitching his first game for his new team over Buckner, who is pitching his first game back from the minors.

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 28-30
Month: 17-14

Will Venable - Obscure Baseball Player

Even when you follow baseball every day with a boundless passion, there are players that remain black holes in the consciousness. If you are an east coast kind of guy, this could happen even more for teams that play on the opposite coast where all the games start at what is 10:00 our time. But even so, most of us know the Dodgers' players and the Giants. They have been on television occasionally. But the Padres? Quick! Name a player on the Padres lineup not named Gonzalez. Yeah. That's right. One of those guys is Will Venable. Whenever this writer hears that name on Baseball Tonight or something, the quick thought is always, "Who?" Oh, and just a random thought: Since the Padres are already sort of invisible, doesn't it hurt the cause for the team to wear camouflage so that you can't even see them?

It doesn't help that the Fan always calls him Max Venable. That's because Max Venable played from 1979 to 1991 for various teams. He was a utility outfielder of unspectacular variety who had a decently long career despite batting .241 for his career. He was like your garden variety Hairston. But thinking Max Venable isn't that far off because Max is Will Venable's dad.

Another problem is that Venable reminds this writer of the word, "Venerable," which evokes an old guy. But Will Venable isn't an old guy, he just evokes one. Well, the Fan has had this dark spot for too long so it is time to figure out who this Venable guy is. The Fan figured he would take you along for the ride.

William D. Venable was born (according to his Wiki page) in 1982. The Fan already mentioned that he is the son of William McKinley Venable. Yeah, that's Max's real name. He went to Princeton, so he must be a smart guy. He is the 25th guy from Princeton to play in the major leagues. Didn't know that. He was just as good a basketball player as he was a baseball player at Princeton and he made the All-Ivy League team in both sports twice. Didn't know that. He graduated with a degree in anthropology, so at least Venable can understand how baseball players are influenced by their social organization and culture.

According to his Wiki page, he preferred basketball to his father's sport and that's why he chose Princeton. That's the sad thing to the Fan. When the Fan was a kid, every kid dreamed of being a baseball player. Now no kid dreams that way and instead would rather be a basketball or football player. The Fan's theory for that seems to be that the NBA seems more urban and hip and guys like Shaq having rap songs helped build that mystique. The NFL also seems more hip with the longer hair and tattoos long before Manny and others brought it to the MLB. But to get back to our topic, Venable wanted to be a basketball player.

Venable didn't even play baseball his freshman season at Princeton, so that shows you that baseball was a distant second in his priorities. But if you add up that he was great his junior and senior years in baseball combined with the fact that he was only six foot, two inches tall, and the writing was on the wall that baseball was where his future was.

After his junior year at Princeton, he was drafted by the Orioles in the 15th round. But he went back for his senior year and another good Princeton season moved him up to the 7th round of the 2005 draft with the Padres. After signing with that team, he hit the fast track to the majors. He was the Padres minor league player of the year in 2006.

Venable fared a little worse in tougher competition in 2007 and seemed to regress a bit through some injuries. But in the fickle finger of fate intervened in 2008 as a guy named Hairston (hehehe) got hurt and had to go on the disabled list. The Padres turned to Venable. He ended up in 28 games for the Padres and managed to hit league average (no small feat on that team) and played the outfield with good range (though RTOT indicates with some lack of success). Now he is a fixture in the Padres lineup.

He has only played in about half of the Padres games this year and has played all three outfield positions, but after a retched start by Brian Giles, he has become pretty much the every day right fielder. He has nine homers and has posted a line of .271/.339/.468, good for a 121 OPS+ which is very respectable indeed. Despite a small sample size, right field seems to be his best position and his range factor is well above league average there as well.

So who is Will Venable? Well, he seems to be a pretty good player, who at 26 should be coming into his peak years. Heck, he has to be better than Giles. The Fan had a blind spot for the guy and maybe you did too. But now we both know a little more about him than we started with.

Game Picks - Wednesday: September 2, 2009

Well, alright! That's better. At least the final tally yesterday was respectable. The week is almost back to .500. Never thought that Kansas City would win yesterday or that the Blue Jays wouldn't take at least one game of the double header. Can't believe yesterday's pick included a pick for the White Sox. They are moribund.

One more week of this major book project and this picker can finally start living life again. 80 hours a week for three months gets to a guy after a while, even if it was a nice little contract. Man, was that a lot of work. Maybe now the Fan can get a few of his own books out before Christmas. Egads! More 80 hour weeks are on the way for that.

Let's get to today's picks before the Fan falls back asleep:

• The Reds over the Pirates: Might as well go for the sweep.
• The Twins over the White Sox: Wonder if Buehrle wishes he were traded too.
• The Cubs over the Astros: Yeah, NOW Bradley starts to hit. Lilly should get the win over Paulino.
• The Nationals over the Padres: Stuck with Lannon all year. Come on, big guy, give the Fan a win.
• The Royals over the Athletics: Probably a day too late with this pick, but maybe Bannister can, you know, like win a game?
• The Angels over the Mariners: Kazmir wins his Angels' debut against King Felix and the Mariners.
• The Phillies over the Giants: Happ versus (hehehehe) Brad Penny.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Sabathia should win this one easy.
• The Tigers over the Indians: Porcello versus Laffey. Got to go with Porcello.
• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: Beckett gets back on track as the Bay Rays are toast for 2009.
• The Braves over the Marlins: Got to go with Vazquez over Vande (the Incredible) Hurk.
• The Rangers over the Blue Jays: Hunter shoots down the Blue Jays.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Carpenter should beat Bush, no?
• The Rockies over the Mets: Okay, Redding was decent last time out, but this time? Uh...no.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Billingsley versus Scherzer. Thome gets a pinch hit and very expensive single in his debut.

Yesterday: 10-6
Week: 21-22
Month: 10-6

Dodgers and Rockies Try to Gear Up - White Sox Give Up

Three big deals occurred last night that beat the deadline for post season rosters. The Dodgers got Jim Thome from the White Sox for cash and a minor league player to essentially pinch hit since he can't play first base. The Dodgers also acquired Jon Garland from the Diamondbacks to bolster their rotation (too bad for knuckleballer, Haeger) for a player to be named later. And the White Sox also sent Contreras to the Rockies.

American League pitchers have a history of doing well after being traded to the National League. So perhaps Contreras can contribute for the Rockies after an abysmal season for the White Sox. Perhaps just getting away from his manager will take some of the pressure off of him.

Thome can't play in the field, so he becomes a pretty expensive pinch hitter for the rest of the season and post season. He may hit a homer or three to win a game or two for his new team. The biggest benefit he'll provide is a boost to Manny Ramirez and his morale. The two played together in Cleveland and really like each other.

Garland should help the Dodgers a lot. He is coming off a great start from this past week and appears to be peaking as the season goes along. He should be worth a win or two. Plus, he is familiar to pitching in the American League and that should help the Dodgers in the post season if they get to the World Series.

The moves prove the Rockies and the Dodgers are serious and ready to spend a little to get the job done. The moves also indicate that the White Sox have thrown in the towel and figure they have no hope to compete the rest of the way out.

Game Picks - Tuesday: September 1, 2009

Man oh man did the month ever close out on a clunker. Those picks could have been traded in at a car dealer. Who would have thought that the Reds could sweep a double header. Who would know the Blue Jays would score more runs in one night than they had in their last five games combined. Some games were shocking and others were just stupid picks in retrospect.

And so we turn the page into September. Baseball's final month should provide little in the way of race excitement. Most of the division leaders are a lock. The AL wild card seems more and more locked up. Only the NL wild card seems to be up for grabs. But the games will go on. September call ups will feature kids getting a chance to showcase themselves. And this Fan will keep on picking games.

Let's see what the new month brings us:

• The Blue Jays over the Rangers: Tallet seems like a better pick than Nippert. The Fan hates picking games when two young pitchers pitch.
• The Phillies over the Giants: The Giants' wild card party gets busted in Philly.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: It's time for Mr. Burnett to get going. Yo! It's September!
• The Tigers over the Indians: Jackson is so much a better pick than his opponent, Carrasco.
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: Sonnanstine gets to do his Nolasco impression on why he shouldn't have gone to the minors.
• The Reds over the Pirates: Might as well sweep them patch wearers.
• The Braves over the Marlins: Hanson should beat Sanchez.
• The Astros over the Cubs: Should go with Moehler. After all, Saunders with his ERA over 5, threw a three hitter last night.
• The White Sox over the Twins: Danks versus Manship. Manship?
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Pineiro versus Looper. This one seems too easy.
• The Rangers over the Blue Jays: Second game of a day/night thingamabob.
• The Rockies over the Mets: The poor Mets...
• The Padres over the Nationals: Richard proves once again that the White Sox were stupid to trade him for Peavy who may never pitch again.
• The Athletics over the Royals: Because one of these bad teams has to win.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Padilla hasn't lost interest yet.
• The Angels over the Mariners: Because picking the Mariners last night was stupid.

Yesterday: 4-8 Yuck!
Week: 11-16 Amateur!
Month: 201-196 (final) Just made it!

Facebook, Pictures and Vanity

The Fan tweets. Now there is something the Fan never would have predicted five years ago. Anyway, a couple of weeks ago, the Fan tweeted (stupid, isn't it?) that Facebook has become a new part of his life. But what on earth is the proper use of Facebook? The Fan just doesn't get it.

The Fan was an early pioneer of AOL and also IRC (a chatting system). In fact, the Fan was on AOL so early that the screen name didn't need any numbers on it and chatting meant 24 baud and dial up connections. At the time, those places made sense. You met people, you bonded with some, had "bashes" where you met some of them face to face. It was an interaction of sorts with people that ordinarily you would never meet. That made sense (at least in that point in the Fan's life). The Fan hasn't "chatted" in ages.

The Fan was also a bulletin board kind of guy. Remember those? Those made sense in a pioneering sort of way. Facebook seems to be an amalgam of all those things except the chatting isn't in real time nor as personal and there are lots of confusing things like surveys up the yin yang and a bunch of requests from old acquaintances for friendship. Well, okay, that's nice and all. But a lot of times, the Fan ends up approving friend requests with people he would just as soon forget, but has to approve them anyway to prevent being rude. A lot of people use it for business and contacts. Well, the Fan is in business, but doesn't see the point. Perhaps the Fan is just being obtuse.

The Fan's wife loves Facebook. Then again, she loved AOL and still goes there when she wants to browse the web. The Fan thinks that's silly but keeps his mouth shut. Perhaps she has a fondness for AOL because that's where she met and fell in love with her Fan. Anyway, she is on Facebook and she was disparaging the Fan's picture there. "It's a stupid picture," she says, "and it doesn't do you justice."

So, since the Fan loves his wife, he patiently sat for her as she took a new picture. The Fan dutifully posted the new picture and the wife smiled a lot at that. A few minutes after the picture was posted, the Fan got a "message on his wall." Whatever that wall is. It was from a girl the Fan went to high school with way too many years ago (the power of Facebook). Her words were something to the effect that she wondered how the Fan hadn't changed much and looked much the same as high school. Mind you, the Fan thinks she's nuts because that was 35 years ago. But the Fan has to admit he has aged fairly well. Must be the Sicilian heritage that makes up half of who the Fan is.

Now, the lady who posted the nice comment looks pretty darned good herself after all those years. The Fan was surprised she even remembered this old guy because the Fan was pretty much a recluse in high school and was seemingly invisible. The Fan moved away from there right after high school and has only been back twice since.

The Fan has a confession to make. The lady's comments flushed this old geezer like a peeper frog. The blood quickened and the heart fluttered and for a brief second, the Fan felt like a little bit of a stud. It passed quickly when the Fan went to the bathroom and remembered what he looked like. But aren't we funny? Isn't it silly how easily we are inflamed with such vane thoughts? Like Rudolph, we fly through the air shouting, "She said I'm cute. I'm cuuuute!" Silly people. It doesn't take much to get us going.

Once the Fan came back down to earth, he realized that his cherishes his wife and as long as she thinks this old guy is the be all and end all, then that's more than enough for life to be really, really good.

Andy Pettitte - What a Difference a Defense Makes

The Yankees showed little love to Andy Pettitte this off-season. He was given a "take-it-or-leave-it" offer and the notion was that the Yankees had plenty of options and if you still want to pitch in New York, here is what we'll pay you. Many wrote (including this writer) that the Yankees were correct in this stance as Pettitte had become a league average pitcher and wasn't worth big money any more. Well, now here he is, after a brilliant performance against the Orioles, at 12-8 and is (behind Sabathia) the second best starter in the Yankees rotation. So what is different this year than last, when he finished at 14-14 with a 4.54 ERA? The answer is: Not much of anything really.

Pettitte has always been a pitcher who surrendered a fair amount of base runners. He has had only two years in his career where he gave up less hits than innings pitched. One of those years was with Houston in the National League. The Fan will leave that statement just where it is and not swirl up a bunch of dust. Suffice it to say that Pettitte has had a WHIP of under 1.3 three times in his long career, two of those were with Houston. He has finished above 1.4 eight times and his career WHIP is 1.32. So Pettitte has always had a lot of people on base.

But the guy has a .630 lifetime winning percentage! He just knows how to win. He's savvy and a big-game pitcher and all those other cliches you want to throw around. But the best thing about Pettitte has always been that he played for winning teams that scored a ton of runs.

So again, why did he end up with a 4.54 ERA last year with a 14-14 record and why is he so much better this year at 12-8 with a 4.04 ERA? The answer is partly luck and partly better defense around him. Let's compare some stats last year and this.

Last year, Pettitte had a WHIP of 1.412. This year is 1.400 (before Monday's one-hitter). Last year, Pettitte gave up 10.3 hits per nine innings. This year it's 9.3. Aha! There's the one difference. Let's keep going. His walks per nine innings are up this year from last year and his career average. His strikeouts per nine are exactly the same as last year and slightly higher than his career average. His homers per nine innings is up from last year (let's call that the Yankee Stadium Effect).

So Pettitte is pretty much the same pitcher he was a year ago except for the hits per nine innings. That's where BABIP comes into play. BABIP measures the batting average of balls hit in play. Last year, Pettitte's BABIP was around .340. This year, it's just over the league average and a little over .300. That's a huge difference. So part of that means that Pettitte has been luckier this year than last and that last year, he was unlucky. The other part of the equation is that the Yankees are significantly better in the field this year than they were last year when they were horrid.

Pettitte's BABIP chart on FanGraphs is hugely illuminating. His first five years coincided with the Yankee glory years and his BABIP is remarkably consistent at just over the league average. Then in 2001, 2002 and 2003, his BABIP jumps, which seems to reflect the Yankees lack of defense after 2000 when they started signing aging sluggers who could still bop, but were anchors in the field. Then Pettitte goes to Houston for a couple of years and those years, his BABIP went way below league average. His third year in Houston, his BABIP again skyrockets above league average and his record and ERA reflect the damage in that 2007 season. The Fan has already told you about last year and so far this year.

So basically, after you break it all down, Pettitte is the same steady pitcher he's always been. He's not spectacular. But he is predictable and reliable and he keeps his team in the game. Last year was a year with bad fielding and bad luck and both contributed to making him just an average pitcher. This year, his luck is better and so are his fielders and his record and ERA reflect that too.

This year, Pettitte is throwing less cutters, curves and change ups. He is throwing more sliders and two-seam fastballs but all in all, he is the same pitcher he's always been. And what he's always been seems to be a slightly above league average pitcher that has been remarkably consistent through the years and it's a darn good thing the Yankees got him back. The telling thing about Pettitte is that Baseball Prospectus charts that Pettitte should have 46 more losses in his career based on the kind of pitcher he is. But the chart also shows the same amount of wins. And 227 wins is a lot of wins.

Joba Rules Redux - Why Bother?

Look, we can all understand the Yankees trying to protect a talent like Joba Chamberlain, but what in the world can we make of the new Joba Rules where he starts a game, goes three innings and pitches just 35 pitches? Besides taxing the bullpen, what in the world is the worth of that?

In a game where Chamberlain finally managed not to walk half of the batters he faced, Chamberlain was efficient for a change and averaged only 12 pitches an inning. He had one inning where the White Sox bunched a few hits and scored a run, but other than that, his pitches were not stressful. Why wouldn't you at least let him go five innings?

The thing about this is that they are trying to save his arm and limp him along to the playoffs. But will he be able to stretch out those playoff starts for very long if you are regressing him to three innings per start?

Nothing about the Joba Rules seems to make sense. John Kruk on Baseball Tonight compared Chamberlain to Felix Hernandez of the Mariners. Both pitchers are the same age and have the same amount of service time, but King Felix has pitched five times the amount of innings than Chamberlain has. Kruk is fed up with the Yankees babying of Joba.

While Kruk is an old-school guy, his frustration is warranted. The Yankees fortunately have the luxury of botching this whole thing as they have a big lead in the AL East. But sooner or later, they have to start making sense of what they are doing with Chamberlain.

Zack Greinke - Cy Young Leader

Rob Neyer wrote a piece last week about the Cy Young award and how most voters for that award will not register a vote for a guy who is not among the league leaders in wins. He is right and many times a vote will be case for all the wrong reasons such as the win/loss record much like the MVP is almost always based on the homer/RBI combination. Some day, maybe, these awards will come to the modern age and stats such as WARP, PitchF/X and other factors will contribute to the awards. Zack Greinke might be having the type of season that will tip the scales. But that's a big, "might."

The way the season is shaping up so far, if the trends continue, C. C. Sabathia would probably win the most votes for Cy Young, especially with the recent struggles of Beckett and Halladay. And Sabathia has been worth every penny the Yankees paid for the guy. He hasn't often been spectacular, but he is a horse that goes out there every fifth day and pitches deep into the game and gives the Yankees a chance to win. There is no overstating his value to the Yankees' pitching staff and what his starts have meant to his team. But he isn't the right choice for Cy Young.

As it stands now, Zack Greinke should win the award. His problem is that he pitches for the Royals, the worst team in baseball. And unlike the year that Steve Carlton had with the Phillies when Carlton had a gaudy record despite his team coming in last place, Greinke figures at best to finish with a record around 15-10. Not especially pretty for a Cy Young winner. But in this Fan's figuring, the best pitcher...check that...the best starting pitcher in baseball should win the award regardless of record (no closer or other reliever with ninety innings or less should ever win the award).

And Greinke has clearly been the league's best pitcher. He leads the league in ERA, ERA+ and WHIP. He has a K/9 of 9.6 and a K/BB ratio of 5.05 to 1. Those are sick numbers by any standard. He also has the best homer per nine innings rate of 0.5. So he keeps the ball in the yard, he strikes out almost 10 per nine innings, while only walking 1.9. He allows less than a hit an inning. And he averages a little over seven innings a start. If the season ended right now, who would be better?

And what a season it could be if Greinke played for a decent team. He has six games started this year when he did not get a decision. The Royals lost every one of them. In those six games where he didn't get a decision, he gave up eleven runs, less than two per game. In his eight losses, he has given up 26 earned runs or a little over three a game. Most of those would have been wins on any other team. In fact, in his 27 starts, he has only given up four or more earned runs four times. So with little stretch of imagination, he easily could be 18-4 instead of 13-8.

The most telling statistic for Greinke is that in his 27 starts, his team has scored three or less runs seventeen times and he is still 13-8. Baseball Prospectus figures that under normal conditions, Greinke would finish with a 22-9 season. That's a Cy Young season, no?

Game Picks - Monday: August 31, 2009

This picker gave himself a Nyquil coma last night and slept in. There were a few sneezes so it seemed justified. But really, a good night sleep was needed badly and as such, this picker went to bed at 9:30. Wow! Haven't been to bed that early since Batman was a television show. As such, with the Nyquil still creating a bit of a mind fog, it doesn't seem that bad that the picks yesterday were again below par. The only thing cutting through the fog is that the Yankees won despite a really bizarre and stupid use of Joba Chamberlain and another masterful performance by Zack Greinke. More on those in a few minutes. But for now, let's just get to the picks for Monday:

• The Bay Rays over the Tigers: The Young Bay Rays hitters are going to jump all over Washburn.
• The Reds over the Pirates: Is the Fan really going to pick the Reds when Kip Wells is the starter? He has no choice.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Did anyone really think Andy Pettitte was going to be the Yankees second best starter when the season started?
• The Pirates over the Reds: The second game a day/night double header. Maholm should win this one.
• The Marlins over the Braves: Josh Johnson should beat Kawakami.
• The Astros over the Cubs: Oswalt out duels Harden.
• The Rangers over the Blue Jays: Young Holland needs to keep the ball rolling for the Rangers and their fading wild card chances.
• The White Sox over the Twins: The White Sox got their butts kicked by the Yankees and will take it out on the Twins.
• The Nationals over the Padres: This picker has to pick Livan to win. It just can't be any other way.
• The Royals over the Athletics: Hochever pitches a good game.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Wolf over Davis. Is Manny going to get going soon?
• The Mariners over the Angels: French fries Saunders.

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 7-8
Month: 197-188

Game Picks - Sunday: August 30, 2009

Well, it wasn't pretty, but at least the night ended on the plus side of things. Not enough to save the week, but a plus record for the month has been all but gained. Zito was great and Marquis was not. The Marlins are folding like a lawn chair thanks to their bullpen. They are winning the game and bring in Luis Ayala? That was a good idea? The Braves buried Lee, giving the pitcher his first NL loss. Should have seen that coming. Buckholz and Romero were both great, but the wrong team won. Weaver was great for the Angels but the bullpen blew up the game. And the Royals were a stupid pick.

Two more days of August and then we are on the down hill slide. What will Sunday bring?

• The Yankees over the White Sox: Don't blame Guillen for being unhappy when he has to pitch Freddie Garcia.
• The Tigers over the Bay Rays: Good match up of Verlander versus Niemann. Verlander should take the day.
• The Reds over the Dodgers: The Reds have been pretty hot lately and Arroyo is due for a win.
• The Padres over the Marlins: Latos and the Padres will make the Marlins look back on this weekend and sulk.
• The Indians over the Orioles: Let's go with Masterson over Matusz.
• The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Halladay is pitching against...are you ready? Paul Byrd.
• The Pirates over the Brewers: Ohlendorf! hahaha! The guy has been amazing.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Millwood versus Baker. Baker has been pitching well. Millwood so-so. But the Rangers should win.
• The Cardinals over the Nationals: Not to Mock the Nationals, but Wainwright will have an easy day.
• The Cubs over the Mets: When was the last time Zambrano pitched a good game? It's been a while.
• The Angels over the Athletics: Like Anderson and the Athletics, but couldn't pull the trigger on picking an upset here.
• The Giants over the Rockies: Cain is the third good pitcher in a row the Giants have thrown at the Rockies and it should be enough.
• The Diamondbacks over the Astros: How come Wandy always gets the tough guys? Today it's Haran.
• The Royals over the Mariners: Greinke needs wins to get up there for Cy Young.
• The Braves over the Phillies: Just like Jurrjens over Blanton. That's all.

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 39-43
Month: 190-180

The White Sox Finally Hit the Wall

Ozzie Guillen says he's embarrassed. He says his team should be embarrassed after making more errors (3) Saturday against the Yankees than they had hits (1). The White Sox have now lost six of their last seven, most of which against the power of the AL East. It looks like this aging team has hit a wall that they can't climb over.

The White Sox have three fundamental problems. First and foremost, they have committed 36 starts to the likes off Jose Contreras, Bartolo Colon, Freddie Garcia and Carlos Torres. Between the four of them, they sound like the latin version of a fantasy camp. The second problem is fielding where they are next to last in the American League in fielding percentage. Lastly, despite some guys who can go deep, they are tenth in the fourteen team American League in OPS. For most of the year, they haven't had a centerfielder that can hit. And they have a second baseman and shortstop with OPS+ stats of 78 and 86 respectively. Add those three things up and you have a team that can make Guillen pretty feisty.

Let's start with those 36 starts. Contreras, Colon, Garcia and Torres are a combined 8-20 with 285 base runners allowed in 193 and 2/3 innings. That works out to a WHIP of 1.47. Let's say that if those starts had come at an even .500, that would make up six games in the standings and it would be the White Sox on top of the division and not the Tigers.

For a while, Scott Podsednik gave the team a spark but he has tailed off and now his OPS+ is under 100 and a .347 OBP isn't that hot for a lead off guy. Pods is 33 now and that is part of the equation with this team. Pierzynski is 33, Dye is 35, Konerko is 33 and Thome is 38. That's five out of the nine guys in the line up that are past their prime. And those are the only five that can at least hit a little. The problem with older guys is that they will get you if you make a mistake because they have seen a thousand of them in their careers, but they can be over matched too at this stage in their careers. Thome is batting .256, Dye is at .264. In fairness, Podsednik is the only one of the five below league average in OPS+. Pierzynski is having one of his best offensive years. But when faced with tough pitching, they are past the point in their careers when they are going to be able to hang in there.

The White Sox lead the American League in errors with 100. They are tied for seventh in defensive efficiency and they are third from the bottom in throwing base stealers out. When you are that leaky on defense, tenth in the league in OPS and have committed 36 starts to guys who have had no business starting, that spells disappointment and has obviously led to another Guillen press harangue.

To top it all off, the White Sox lead the league in names that are hard to spell. There's Linebrink, Podsednik, Pierzynski, Poreda, Alexei Ramirez, Jayson Nix, Dewayne Wise, Lillibridge, Buehrle and even a short appearance by a Jhonny Nunez. Man, that poor clubhouse guy in charge of uniforms.

What is currently happening to the White Sox has been expected here in the FanDome for quite some time. But there is no joy in being right. There is only a sad knowledge that the window of opportunities for these guys is closing rapidly and it doesn't seem clear where the White Sox will go from here.