Quick: Name the Tampa Bay Rays' general manager. [[tapping foot]] Times up. His name is Andrew Friedman and it is a mystery why he is so little known. We all know Ken Williams, Brian Cashman, Theo (who doesn't even need a last name) and now we know Alderson. But the best of the bunch in the last three years has been Andrew Friedman who has transformed the Bay Rays from a perennial punchline to a powerhouse. Now Friedman has his work cut out for him. 2010 was in many ways, the last hurrah for the particular bunch that made them successful. As Peter Gammons points out, eleven of the twenty-five players on the Rays' roster last year are free agents, including the entire bullpen. Crawford won't be back. Pena shouldn't be back. And so it will be one of the most fascinating stories of this off season as to what the Bay Rays can and will do to keep their competitive edge.
The good news is that there is still a good core of young talent. Longoria is already the best third baseman in the league. Wait...and then what? The Fan just came up short in his thinking because there really isn't a superstar on the team besides Longoria. B. J. Upton has been nothing but frustrating in his recent few years for the Bay Rays. Bartlett went from being one of the best shortstops in the league two years ago to being one of the worst last year. Zobrist went from god-like in 2009 to league average in 2010. Jaso is serviceable and has great baseball instincts. Matt Joyce showed flashes of brilliance and could be in the superstar category soon. Sean Rodrigeuz was just okay. But the team didn't have a DH worth writing about and again, Crawford and Pena are gone.
Wait, there is another superstar! His name is David Price and he really blossomed last year. But what of the rest of the rotation? Garza is a puzzle. He either throws no-hitters or gets lit up like a Christmas tree. Shields did not have a good year. Niemann was good and then he wasn't. Wade Davis wasn't good and then he was. But the feeling here is that the Bay Rays' rotation will be just fine. The Fan sees it as: 1. Price, 2. Daves, 3. Garza, 4. Hellickson and 5. Niemann. That could be a fantastic rotation. So that is the least of the Rays' worries.
The bullpen, as mentioned are ALL free agents. The Bay Rays can probably afford to sign three or four of them. And then what? Soriano will probably move on and he was so solid for them as a closer last year. It was the first time ever that the Bay Rays had a lock on the ninth inning. It seems difficult for them to revert back to their closing history of 2009 and before. But, if building a bullpen is as easy as a lot of smart people think it is, no need to worry. Friedman will think of something. Perhaps the Nefti Feliz clone, Alex Colombe, could be the closer.
The thing about the Bay Rays is that they are fantastic at drafting players. Need another pitcher? Hellickson came up last year and pitching brilliantly in four starts. The Bay Rays messed him up a bit by putting him in the bullpen after that, but hopefully, there won't be a long term problem with that. Need another pitcher? How about Matt Moore or Alex Torres or...the list is endless.
Look for the Bay Rays to give Desmond Jennings a chance to be an every day outfielder. Jennings, to quote a scout, is "toolsy." He's a center fielder by trade, but with Upton, he may have to move to left or vice versa. Zobrist should play right and the Rays have to hope that he becomes what he was two years ago again. Upton needs to find himself. The Fan still believes he will, but time is running out. If Jennings, Upton and Zobrist man the outfield, two of the three at least should have good seasons.
If the Fan was the GM--and thank goodness, that will never happen--Bartlett would be traded for prospects or another part player. Reid Brignac is a better fielder and can be a 15 homer guy in time. Rodriguez should build on his rookie season. He shows flashes of being really good, but if that doesn't work out, they can always put Zobrist there and find an outfielder. Zobrist could also play first or rotate there with someone else.
John Jaso really impressed last year. His patience at the plate and his base running presence (not steals though) found him in the lead off spot last year. Shoppach wasn't much of a back up and of course, Dioner Navarro walked out on the team after being left off the post season roster. That probably seals his fate with this team. Bottom line, the Rays could use another decent catcher. The nice thing about needing a catcher is that you can get a pretty good one for just a few mil and change. Buck would be a nice addition that wouldn't break the bank.
And man, do the Bay Rays need a DH or what? Holy cow, that position has been a stinker for them. If they could get one of the big bruisers on the market for $5 or $6 million, they should certainly do that. Perhaps even Magglio Ordonez would be a good option if he is healthy. Anything has to be an improvement. Anything!
The Bay Rays have their work cut out of them. Crawford was one of the best players in the league. Guys like that are hard to replace. A lot has to go right for this team to be as good moving forward. Can they find bullpen help? Can more young players step up and do as well as those that have in the past? Can Garza and Niemann find some consistency and put a solid year together? But again, Friedman is one of the best and there is no way you can count them out. The scary part for this team is that depending on how their young players do, they could finish anywhere from first to fourth.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Tuesday, November 09, 2010
Old Media Doesn't Help Jeter
It's bad enough that the media dumps heaps of praise on Derek Jeter for all sorts of mythical stuff. There is Mr. November and Captain Clutch and all the other nonsense that heaps a nationhood of scorn on Jeter as a player. If the media--at least those that are old school and not the new baseball analysts that take delight in puncturing holes in the old guard's adulation--would have treated him no more or less than one of the most interesting and effective offensive shortstops in our generation, things would be fine. But they haven't (and despite this Fan's bemoaning of Jon Miller's dismissal, Mr. Miller was one of the guilty parties) and because they haven't...because they were more interested in building the myth of Jeter, there isn't a more fiery lightning brand of derision than that of the Yankee shortstop. That same old school has now given Jeter another Gold Glove that we all know he doesn't deserve and adds to the din and clamor. Mr. Neyer has already fired two salvos and he isn't alone.
Clearly Alexei Ramirez was the best fielding shortstop in the American League this past season. Pennington was probably second. Jeter--who made very few errors, and is a solid shortstop in that he catches what is hit to him and makes the throws once he catches them--doesn't have the range of those two and is clearly not their equal in the field. If one of them had won the thing, then the young media...the baseball analysts (many of whom this Fan admires)...wouldn't have further ammunition and neither would the thousands of comment makers on thousands of sites all over this country. It's enough to make a Fan pull his hair out. And thank goodness, this Fan has lots of it for an older guy (eat your hearts out!).
Jeter winning the Gold Glove is just about the worst thing that could have happened to his image and for the way he is viewed around the country. Yes, sure, a few die-hard and blindly loyal Yankee fans will raise a glass to the Captain, but they are misguided and they don't help.
Yes, Jeter has already punched his ticket to Cooperstown. Yes, Jeter is one of the top ten shortstops of the last fifty years because of his offense. Yes, you can't argue with five rings on his fingers. But geez Louise, stop voting him those dang Gold Glove Awards. They don't help anything. They just make things worse.
Clearly Alexei Ramirez was the best fielding shortstop in the American League this past season. Pennington was probably second. Jeter--who made very few errors, and is a solid shortstop in that he catches what is hit to him and makes the throws once he catches them--doesn't have the range of those two and is clearly not their equal in the field. If one of them had won the thing, then the young media...the baseball analysts (many of whom this Fan admires)...wouldn't have further ammunition and neither would the thousands of comment makers on thousands of sites all over this country. It's enough to make a Fan pull his hair out. And thank goodness, this Fan has lots of it for an older guy (eat your hearts out!).
Jeter winning the Gold Glove is just about the worst thing that could have happened to his image and for the way he is viewed around the country. Yes, sure, a few die-hard and blindly loyal Yankee fans will raise a glass to the Captain, but they are misguided and they don't help.
Yes, Jeter has already punched his ticket to Cooperstown. Yes, Jeter is one of the top ten shortstops of the last fifty years because of his offense. Yes, you can't argue with five rings on his fingers. But geez Louise, stop voting him those dang Gold Glove Awards. They don't help anything. They just make things worse.
Yeah. Albert Pujols Is Pretty Good
As a baseball Fan that grew up fascinated by the backs of baseball cards and the stat section of the Sporting News, going over to baseball-reference.com to look at Albert Pujols' stat page is a study in the surreal. In the modern era, there has never been a player as consistently devastating. Year after year, he puts up eye popping numbers that just make your head swirl. There is no way to completely wrap your head around how good a player he is.
Alex Rodriguez was long the glory guy of the major leagues. He was considered by most to be the best player in baseball. But at no time in A-Rod's career did he ever put a ten year streak together that looked anywhere near Pujols. For his CAREER, Albert's slash line is .331/.426/.624. He barely missed .600 in slugging in 2010 and it's like a major upset. In ten years of playing for the Cardinals, Pujols has averaged 119 runs, 190 hits, 43 doubles, 40 homers, 123 RBI, 91 walks and 64 strikeouts. There is no way to fathom that kind of continuity. Yeah, we could probably insert Barry Bonds into this conversation. And Bonds cleans up on even Albert Pujols. But that is an entirely distasteful conversation, isn't it (unless you are a Giants' fan)?
So while we can't even get our minds around how good Albert Pujols is, how are the Cardinals supposed to figure out how to compensate him? The $14 million he made last year is such a joke compared to the value he built for the team. But what are the Cardinals supposed to do? Say they budget around $110 million for player salaries. If they paid Pujols what he was worth, they would have to pay him upwards of $28 to $30 million a year. That would be 25 to 28 percent of their payroll. Add in the ridiculous sum they paid Holliday and you have two guys making over $45 million. So what can they do?
The Cardinals picked up Pujols' absurd option for 2011. Should they hope he regresses quickly? Should they just try to get through the year and then let another team have him? Should they break the bank and pay him what he is worth? It's really a no win situation for the Cardinals, isn't it? Maybe they have to get creative and give him a percentage of ownership or something. Teams are now using player analysis to ensure that they don't overpay for talent. But Pujols is the type of player that breaks all the models. He turns the tables around so that the tools teams use to keep payroll down, make Pujols so expensive that they can't afford him. It's certainly a conundrum, isn't it?
As for Pujols, is any amount too much? Or is any amount enough? He certainly has built the value. Does he insist on getting it? Or does he figure that $25 mil is more than enough to be happy? If you think the Jeter story is interesting now, just wait. The Pujols puzzle for the Cardinals is going to be the biggest story of the coming year. Pujols has expressed a desire to have an extension in place before the season. The Cardinals reply that there is no rush. That is a dangerous stance for the Cardinals, but if it were the Fan's team, the Fan would probably be doing the Russian two-step too. It has to be a day the Cardinals have dreaded for a long time. And now it's upon them.
It would be nice if something could be worked out. Pujols belongs in St. Louis and we fans don't really like talking about money and negotiations. We just want to sit back and watch the best player of his generation (and many other generations) play baseball.
Alex Rodriguez was long the glory guy of the major leagues. He was considered by most to be the best player in baseball. But at no time in A-Rod's career did he ever put a ten year streak together that looked anywhere near Pujols. For his CAREER, Albert's slash line is .331/.426/.624. He barely missed .600 in slugging in 2010 and it's like a major upset. In ten years of playing for the Cardinals, Pujols has averaged 119 runs, 190 hits, 43 doubles, 40 homers, 123 RBI, 91 walks and 64 strikeouts. There is no way to fathom that kind of continuity. Yeah, we could probably insert Barry Bonds into this conversation. And Bonds cleans up on even Albert Pujols. But that is an entirely distasteful conversation, isn't it (unless you are a Giants' fan)?
So while we can't even get our minds around how good Albert Pujols is, how are the Cardinals supposed to figure out how to compensate him? The $14 million he made last year is such a joke compared to the value he built for the team. But what are the Cardinals supposed to do? Say they budget around $110 million for player salaries. If they paid Pujols what he was worth, they would have to pay him upwards of $28 to $30 million a year. That would be 25 to 28 percent of their payroll. Add in the ridiculous sum they paid Holliday and you have two guys making over $45 million. So what can they do?
The Cardinals picked up Pujols' absurd option for 2011. Should they hope he regresses quickly? Should they just try to get through the year and then let another team have him? Should they break the bank and pay him what he is worth? It's really a no win situation for the Cardinals, isn't it? Maybe they have to get creative and give him a percentage of ownership or something. Teams are now using player analysis to ensure that they don't overpay for talent. But Pujols is the type of player that breaks all the models. He turns the tables around so that the tools teams use to keep payroll down, make Pujols so expensive that they can't afford him. It's certainly a conundrum, isn't it?
As for Pujols, is any amount too much? Or is any amount enough? He certainly has built the value. Does he insist on getting it? Or does he figure that $25 mil is more than enough to be happy? If you think the Jeter story is interesting now, just wait. The Pujols puzzle for the Cardinals is going to be the biggest story of the coming year. Pujols has expressed a desire to have an extension in place before the season. The Cardinals reply that there is no rush. That is a dangerous stance for the Cardinals, but if it were the Fan's team, the Fan would probably be doing the Russian two-step too. It has to be a day the Cardinals have dreaded for a long time. And now it's upon them.
It would be nice if something could be worked out. Pujols belongs in St. Louis and we fans don't really like talking about money and negotiations. We just want to sit back and watch the best player of his generation (and many other generations) play baseball.
Reds Should Be Cautious About Arroyo
The Cincinnati Reds are doing more than just picking up Bronson Arroyo's option for 2011. Word is that they are trying to lock him up to a two or three year deal at around $13 million per year. That's a pretty heady price tag for a really durable, league average pitcher. Arroyo (on paper) had his best year in the majors with 17 wins and a sub-4 ERA. But caution abounds here and in this writer's mind, there is a big yellow flag being waved.
There is value in a pitcher that will give you a chance to win 33 starts a year. Arroyo has not failed to pitch at least 30+ starts and 200+ innings for four straight years. He never seems to get hurt, or if he gets hurt, he never seems to say anything. Since he isn't a power pitcher anyway, he's not going to blow you away. His 5.0 K/9 rate isn't what you would call a buzz kill as a batter. But Fangraphs pegged his value in 2010 at $7 million. Baseball-reference.com gave him a slightly higher value. That means that even at his option price of $11.5 million, Arroyo is overpaid. Bump that up to $13 million and he his nearly doubly overpaid.
Arroyo's year was commendable, but it was a bit of a fluke too. His BABIP was .241 for the season which is a combination of great luck and very good fielding behind him. Though his ERA was 3.88, his xFIP was 4.60 which, according to the formula, is where his ERA should have been. To give you an idea what the Fan is talking about, Arroyo's value, as calculated by Fangraphs, puts him in the company of A. J. Burnett, Kevin Millwood, Chris Narveson and Chris Volstad.
On top of all this, Arroyo is going to be 34 in 2011. Can he keep on being effective at that age? Certainly. Are the odds good that he will be as affective as his reasonably effective 2010 for the duration of a three year deal? No. The Fan was surprised when the Reds picked up his option for the 2011. But that is fine as long as you are only gambling with house money for a year. Extend that wager for three years, and it seems a bit crazy.
There is value in a pitcher that will give you a chance to win 33 starts a year. Arroyo has not failed to pitch at least 30+ starts and 200+ innings for four straight years. He never seems to get hurt, or if he gets hurt, he never seems to say anything. Since he isn't a power pitcher anyway, he's not going to blow you away. His 5.0 K/9 rate isn't what you would call a buzz kill as a batter. But Fangraphs pegged his value in 2010 at $7 million. Baseball-reference.com gave him a slightly higher value. That means that even at his option price of $11.5 million, Arroyo is overpaid. Bump that up to $13 million and he his nearly doubly overpaid.
Arroyo's year was commendable, but it was a bit of a fluke too. His BABIP was .241 for the season which is a combination of great luck and very good fielding behind him. Though his ERA was 3.88, his xFIP was 4.60 which, according to the formula, is where his ERA should have been. To give you an idea what the Fan is talking about, Arroyo's value, as calculated by Fangraphs, puts him in the company of A. J. Burnett, Kevin Millwood, Chris Narveson and Chris Volstad.
On top of all this, Arroyo is going to be 34 in 2011. Can he keep on being effective at that age? Certainly. Are the odds good that he will be as affective as his reasonably effective 2010 for the duration of a three year deal? No. The Fan was surprised when the Reds picked up his option for the 2011. But that is fine as long as you are only gambling with house money for a year. Extend that wager for three years, and it seems a bit crazy.
Nice Timing By the Blue Jays
Doesn't it seem fitting that during the week that Sparky Anderson passes away, that his erstwhile phenom, Torey Lovullo got hired by a MLB team? Anderson was always touting this prospect or that one and many times, it became a laughable joke because the players ended up being terrible. Torey Lovullo was one of those. When Sparky called up Lovullo, his famous quote was: "I'll die before Lovullo comes out of the lineup." Fortunately for us, Sparky didn't die and Lovullo came out of the line up after batting .112 in over 100 at bats.
Remarkably, Lovullo did managed to eke out parts of seven years in the big leagues. He only had one year where he approached being a regular player and that was in 1993 with the Angels. Lovullo finished with a 69 lifetime OPS+.
Of course, Anderson was a pretty lousy baseball player too, but he was a great manager and Lovullo's playing career should have no impact on what he will do as a major league coach. But his hiring wasn't the only Toronto hire. They also hired former Mariner manager, Don Wakamatsu, as their bench coach. John Farrell will have an excellent side kick there (in this writer's opinion).
Another hire was Pat Hentgen, the Blue Jays former Cy Young Award winner. He will join the team as its bullpen coach. Blue Jays fans should get a great kick out of seeing Hentgen in a Blue Jays uniform again.
Remarkably, Lovullo did managed to eke out parts of seven years in the big leagues. He only had one year where he approached being a regular player and that was in 1993 with the Angels. Lovullo finished with a 69 lifetime OPS+.
Of course, Anderson was a pretty lousy baseball player too, but he was a great manager and Lovullo's playing career should have no impact on what he will do as a major league coach. But his hiring wasn't the only Toronto hire. They also hired former Mariner manager, Don Wakamatsu, as their bench coach. John Farrell will have an excellent side kick there (in this writer's opinion).
Another hire was Pat Hentgen, the Blue Jays former Cy Young Award winner. He will join the team as its bullpen coach. Blue Jays fans should get a great kick out of seeing Hentgen in a Blue Jays uniform again.
Jon Miller Canned? What the Frick Is That?
[[switching to first person]] I used to love ESPN. I really did. It was fresh and fun and for the first time ever (when they first came out) you could see highlights of all the games. Sports Center used to be the bomb. They had first class talent that made you laugh. Advertisements are still using, "Booyah," in their ads (does Stu get royalties?). Then Baseball Tonight came along and it was perfect. ESPN made a big splash with baseball. I'm not sure it's ever been worth the money they paid for those rights, but they went in big. Their signature event was Sunday Night Baseball which has been broadcast by Jon Miller and Joe Morgan for twenty years. Now ESPN has pulled the plug on the team and this Fan...I...don't like it.
Why don't I like it? The answer isn't rational. I don't like change when it comes to broadcasters. I'm still trying to get used to Don Orsillo (sp?) on NESN. I adopt broadcasters in some sort of emotional way. No, I can't explain that. I just do. Announcers become like uncles you enjoy seeing on a regular basis. Phil Rizzuto was my first and greatest uncle. Joe Garagiola was my second when he did those Saturday broadcasts. Jon Miller became my third.
The reason I adopted Jon Miller was because I'm not a fan of the Red Sox. I probably shouldn't admit that as a "general" blogger. But I'm sure the Red Sox will get over the admission. I do like Jerry Remy who has become almost an uncle of sorts. So since I don't have a home network to watch on a regular basis, I looked forward to the Sunday night games. Thus Jon Miller as my uncle.
Why Jon Miller? He was like the silly uncle that always made you smile. He wore those funky shirts and ties and had the goofiest hair ever seen on national television. But it was his voice and good nature that drew me in. Jon Miller is a broadcaster of the old school. His voice is an instrument and he knows how to use it. He knows when to build the drama and he knows how to carry a game when the broadcast becomes a laugher. But he did it all with such an honest integrity for the game that you could tell he was a fan too. I love that about him.
Now Joe Morgan was another animal. Joe Morgan would never become my uncle. He was like that rich, imperious relative that always felt above your particular station. He was prickly and cold to a degree. But there was respect. He knew the game and though his opinions were strong, at least they were honest. I also felt that Jon Miller made the most of his pairing with Morgan. Many say that he kissed Morgan's feet. He did just enough of that to satisfy Morgan's craving for respect. But he also knew how to poke holes with Morgan and the two adopted a grudging and sometimes humorous relationship.
That relationship was a tightrope. You could just tell it was. Recently, ESPN added a third guy to the booth and that didn't work at all. It felt like an intrusion. It was an intrusion. You could tell Morgan was uncomfortable and it gave Miller too much juggling to do.
Recently, Miller won the Ford C. Frick Award for outstanding work in the broadcasting world. It was well deserved. Which is why I don't get what ESPN is doing. They guy was just honored as one of the best broadcasters ever and his own network responds by canning the guy? Then the network falls all over itself thanking the two stalwarts of Sunday Night Baseball and stating how wonderful they were and how much they created the brand and blah, blah, blah. Then why did they fire them? Don't give us platitudes. You are a news organization. Tell us why.
We deserve an explanation. After all, it is we who pay for the network. Our cable or satellite subscriptions pay for the network and some of us are even stupid enough to pay to be an "Insider" on their website. Don't we customers deserve some sort of explanation?
Don't you just get the feeling that there are some analysts feeling smug because their research showed that the ratings were suffering with the right kind of viewers--namely those in the 18-30 group who we are told make the advertisers the most money? Those same researchers are probably responsible for the abominable David Wells and Kevin Millar that other networks think are so cool. The problem with those guys are that they have no souls. There is no depth in their character that we can relate to. Or they are just bad at getting that across to their viewers.
So ESPN will replace tradition with something younger. Orel Hershiser is okay as a replacement for Morgan. He did make some stupid mistakes early on the way he tried to bait Morgan. He looked like a punk trying to get more face time. But he is likable enough. But who is going to replace Miller? Nobody. You can't replace that voice and that likability. You can't replace an uncle with someone new that your aunt just married because of a divorce. Miller had gravitas. You need a lifetime of experience to earn that.
But this situation has precedent. The same thing happened in New York to Mel Allen years ago. The same thing happened to Carey in Atlanta. And now it has happened to ESPN. Yeah, I fully understand and am aware that I sound like on old creep that is apposed to any change. I get that. I also get that ESPN is probably upset about its ratings. But ESPN is like Microsoft or General Motors. Sooner or later upstarts like MLB.TV and the like eat into those formerly unassailable market shares. It happens. But the one way not to fix it is to discard everything that is likable about what you do.
It was bad enough that they ruined Baseball Tonight so that it became a show about analysis instead of about the highlights. Now they have ruined Sunday Night Baseball. Good luck with that. Thanks for all the memories, Uncle Jon.
Why don't I like it? The answer isn't rational. I don't like change when it comes to broadcasters. I'm still trying to get used to Don Orsillo (sp?) on NESN. I adopt broadcasters in some sort of emotional way. No, I can't explain that. I just do. Announcers become like uncles you enjoy seeing on a regular basis. Phil Rizzuto was my first and greatest uncle. Joe Garagiola was my second when he did those Saturday broadcasts. Jon Miller became my third.
The reason I adopted Jon Miller was because I'm not a fan of the Red Sox. I probably shouldn't admit that as a "general" blogger. But I'm sure the Red Sox will get over the admission. I do like Jerry Remy who has become almost an uncle of sorts. So since I don't have a home network to watch on a regular basis, I looked forward to the Sunday night games. Thus Jon Miller as my uncle.
Why Jon Miller? He was like the silly uncle that always made you smile. He wore those funky shirts and ties and had the goofiest hair ever seen on national television. But it was his voice and good nature that drew me in. Jon Miller is a broadcaster of the old school. His voice is an instrument and he knows how to use it. He knows when to build the drama and he knows how to carry a game when the broadcast becomes a laugher. But he did it all with such an honest integrity for the game that you could tell he was a fan too. I love that about him.
Now Joe Morgan was another animal. Joe Morgan would never become my uncle. He was like that rich, imperious relative that always felt above your particular station. He was prickly and cold to a degree. But there was respect. He knew the game and though his opinions were strong, at least they were honest. I also felt that Jon Miller made the most of his pairing with Morgan. Many say that he kissed Morgan's feet. He did just enough of that to satisfy Morgan's craving for respect. But he also knew how to poke holes with Morgan and the two adopted a grudging and sometimes humorous relationship.
That relationship was a tightrope. You could just tell it was. Recently, ESPN added a third guy to the booth and that didn't work at all. It felt like an intrusion. It was an intrusion. You could tell Morgan was uncomfortable and it gave Miller too much juggling to do.
Recently, Miller won the Ford C. Frick Award for outstanding work in the broadcasting world. It was well deserved. Which is why I don't get what ESPN is doing. They guy was just honored as one of the best broadcasters ever and his own network responds by canning the guy? Then the network falls all over itself thanking the two stalwarts of Sunday Night Baseball and stating how wonderful they were and how much they created the brand and blah, blah, blah. Then why did they fire them? Don't give us platitudes. You are a news organization. Tell us why.
We deserve an explanation. After all, it is we who pay for the network. Our cable or satellite subscriptions pay for the network and some of us are even stupid enough to pay to be an "Insider" on their website. Don't we customers deserve some sort of explanation?
Don't you just get the feeling that there are some analysts feeling smug because their research showed that the ratings were suffering with the right kind of viewers--namely those in the 18-30 group who we are told make the advertisers the most money? Those same researchers are probably responsible for the abominable David Wells and Kevin Millar that other networks think are so cool. The problem with those guys are that they have no souls. There is no depth in their character that we can relate to. Or they are just bad at getting that across to their viewers.
So ESPN will replace tradition with something younger. Orel Hershiser is okay as a replacement for Morgan. He did make some stupid mistakes early on the way he tried to bait Morgan. He looked like a punk trying to get more face time. But he is likable enough. But who is going to replace Miller? Nobody. You can't replace that voice and that likability. You can't replace an uncle with someone new that your aunt just married because of a divorce. Miller had gravitas. You need a lifetime of experience to earn that.
But this situation has precedent. The same thing happened in New York to Mel Allen years ago. The same thing happened to Carey in Atlanta. And now it has happened to ESPN. Yeah, I fully understand and am aware that I sound like on old creep that is apposed to any change. I get that. I also get that ESPN is probably upset about its ratings. But ESPN is like Microsoft or General Motors. Sooner or later upstarts like MLB.TV and the like eat into those formerly unassailable market shares. It happens. But the one way not to fix it is to discard everything that is likable about what you do.
It was bad enough that they ruined Baseball Tonight so that it became a show about analysis instead of about the highlights. Now they have ruined Sunday Night Baseball. Good luck with that. Thanks for all the memories, Uncle Jon.
Monday, November 08, 2010
Forget Martin! Simmons For Hall of Fame!
The 2010 ballot for the Hall of Fame: Loser's Brackett was announced today. George Steinbrenner and Marvin Miller seem like overly logical picks. Both had the kind of impact on the game that demands a place in Cooperstown. But forget about Billy Martin or anyone else that is listed in this second chance, "veterans committee." The only other player who really needs to get elected is Ted Simmons. Simmons, who was just hired by the Seattle Mariners front office, is really in the argument as one of the best fifteen catchers to ever play the game.
Let's look at some of Simmons' numbers:
Stat/Rank Among Catchers All time
Add to the list is that Simmons is thirteenth on the all time list for games caught. Pete Palmer has a stat called TPR that tries to measure the best offensive catchers ever. According to his calculations, Simmons is the ninth best offensive catcher to play the game. Since there are already thirteen catchers in the Hall of Fame, shouldn't Ted Simmons be in there too?
- Hits Total: 2472 - 2nd (behind Pudge Rodriguez)
- Hits as catcher: 7th
- One of only 14 catchers ever to have a .300/.400./.500 season
- Homers Total: 242 - 10th
- Runs Batted in: 1389 - 2nd
- Batting Average: .289 - 14th
- Doubles: 483 - 2nd
- Total Bases - 3793 - 3rd
- Runs Generated (RG) - 75 - 9th
Dan Uggla Turns Down 4yrs at $48 Million
Dan Uggla just turned down a guaranteed contract valued at $48 million over four years. The deal would take him to his 34th birthday and would have made him a very rich man. Even for perennial cheapskates like the Marlins, the deal is a substantial offer and seems fair for Uggla's value. Why would he turn that down?
Uggla had probably his best year in 2010. According to baseball-reference.com, his season netted him a 3.7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Since wins are valued at about $2.7 million, his season was worth about $9.9 million. But others argue that if you go by what the market has spent for free agents over the past few seasons, the market value for a win is around $4.5 million. Even if you go by that number, Uggla's best season was worth $16.65 million. If you split that difference, Uggla seems to be worth every penny of what the Marlins offered.
There are other considerations here. First, Uggla isn't young. At 30 years of age, you don't expect him to get much better than he already is. If most pundits are to be believed, he will regress from here on out. He's already a terrible second baseman who has always been in the negative stats in fielding. So he is out of position anyway. The .287 he hit last year was way above his career average of .263. The standard feeling here is that he has a better chance of being a .260 hitter than a .287 hitter. Plus he strikes out 150 times a year with about 75 walks (the walks are a nice thing). And his .287 was a bit of a fluke as his BABIP was .330 for the season, meaning he was fortunate a lot of his hits fell in.
On the plus side, his home/away splits are good. He fared well with runners on base and in high leverage situations. And he is consistent against any kind of pitcher (power, medium and junk). Those are all valuable stats. But geez, $48 million is a lot of peanuts to throw away and to hope that you have a good enough 2011 season to hit the market big in 2012. It's a gigantic risk on Uggla's part. Naturally, the Marlins were stunned by his decision. For them, this was an excellent offer.
So what exactly would possess a guy playing in South Florida to turn down guaranteed money to stay there with the knowledge that he will be playing in a new park next year in one of the best places on earth to live? Add to his location the fact that Florida does not have an income tax and his contract is worth even more money. It's really hard to fathom.
If this Fan ran the Marlins, the offer would forever be pulled off the table and Uggla would play out his 2011 season and be shown the door. The Marlins get a bargain for another year, can use him for trade bait if they don't contend (and this Fan expects them to contend) and let nature take its course. As for Uggla, this is an extremely shocking and dramatic refusal to take good money at the peak of his value. It seems highly unlikely he'll ever be offered more.
Uggla had probably his best year in 2010. According to baseball-reference.com, his season netted him a 3.7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Since wins are valued at about $2.7 million, his season was worth about $9.9 million. But others argue that if you go by what the market has spent for free agents over the past few seasons, the market value for a win is around $4.5 million. Even if you go by that number, Uggla's best season was worth $16.65 million. If you split that difference, Uggla seems to be worth every penny of what the Marlins offered.
There are other considerations here. First, Uggla isn't young. At 30 years of age, you don't expect him to get much better than he already is. If most pundits are to be believed, he will regress from here on out. He's already a terrible second baseman who has always been in the negative stats in fielding. So he is out of position anyway. The .287 he hit last year was way above his career average of .263. The standard feeling here is that he has a better chance of being a .260 hitter than a .287 hitter. Plus he strikes out 150 times a year with about 75 walks (the walks are a nice thing). And his .287 was a bit of a fluke as his BABIP was .330 for the season, meaning he was fortunate a lot of his hits fell in.
On the plus side, his home/away splits are good. He fared well with runners on base and in high leverage situations. And he is consistent against any kind of pitcher (power, medium and junk). Those are all valuable stats. But geez, $48 million is a lot of peanuts to throw away and to hope that you have a good enough 2011 season to hit the market big in 2012. It's a gigantic risk on Uggla's part. Naturally, the Marlins were stunned by his decision. For them, this was an excellent offer.
So what exactly would possess a guy playing in South Florida to turn down guaranteed money to stay there with the knowledge that he will be playing in a new park next year in one of the best places on earth to live? Add to his location the fact that Florida does not have an income tax and his contract is worth even more money. It's really hard to fathom.
If this Fan ran the Marlins, the offer would forever be pulled off the table and Uggla would play out his 2011 season and be shown the door. The Marlins get a bargain for another year, can use him for trade bait if they don't contend (and this Fan expects them to contend) and let nature take its course. As for Uggla, this is an extremely shocking and dramatic refusal to take good money at the peak of his value. It seems highly unlikely he'll ever be offered more.
Glut of First Base/DH Free Agents
It's probably not a good year to be a free agent this year if you are a first baseman or DH. The pond is full of those types of ducks. The list? Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Johnny Damon, Lance Berkman, Manny Ramirez, Lyle Overbay, Aubrey Huff, Jorge Cantu, Russell Branyon, Hideki Matsui, Marcus Thames, Troy Glaus, Adam LaRoche, Derrek Lee, Ty Wigginton and Adam Dunn. Obviously, Damon and Ramirez are more known as outfielders, but Damon could probably survive in left field for a couple of dozen games. Manny could not.
That's seventeen players who need to find a job among thirty teams. It seems pretty reasonable that Huff will re-sign with the Giants, so the Fan will leave him out of this conversation. Cantu, Glaus and Thames will be considered role players. The Fan is tempted to put LaRoche in that category, but won't for now. So that brings us down to thirteen to consider as starter types in this position. As the Fan mentioned yesterday, all of the value of these players has to be generated by their bats. Few analysts give first baseman any brownie (or WAR) points for playing first and certainly there are none for playing DH.
Saying all of that, let's take a look at each of the remaining thirteen and rate and rank them and perhaps even make a suggestion or two about which teams they may end up with:
1. Johnny Damon: Surprised? Yeah. Understood. But at 37, Damon still provides flexibility. He can play left, first or DH. Damon can still steal a base for you (22 of 24 the last two years) and hit an occasional dinger. He would be worth a one year deal at $12 to $14. Angels? Tigers?
2. Lance Berkman: Berkman really doesn't want to DH. But he's been a first baseman for a long time and won't hurt you too badly there. Teams shouldn't give up on batting him right handed. The Fan still thinks he has a good year in him. One year deal at $12 to $14 with options.
3. Lyle Overbay: This ranking is surprising the writer as much as you probably. But Overbay is perhaps the best fielder of the bunch at first, has some pop and will give you 70 or more walks a year. Useless against lefty pitchers though. Tampa Bay?
4. Paul Konerko: Last year feels more like an outlier than anything else. It would seem improbable for Konerko to match it. But his problem is that he will want to command the dollars such a year would bring. But at 35, he still may have a couple of valuable seasons left in him. He really isn't much of a first baseman any more but he can play there if that's what you need. He would be an asset for Tampa Bay, but it's doubtful they will spend that kind of money he will want.
5. Derrek Lee: Lee is the same age as Konerko but didn't have the kind of year Konerko did. He looks much older. It wouldn't seem wise to move Lee to the AL, but after watching that World Series, perhaps we have to stop thinking of the AL as the dominant league, eh?
6. Adam Dunn: Dunn is one of the youngest of the bunch, but he plays old. He's slower than a mule and he wasn't disastrous at first base, but he isn't great either. It's also troubling that his walks, long one of his staples, were way down this past year. But he still hit his 38 homers, no? He is another bat that could help the Bay Rays. He would be a perfect fit for them.
7. Carlos Pena: Pena has had two awful seasons in a row. But it really seems like if he had a chance to work with a really good batting coach, he could come back in a big way. His power is still there. He's still a tremendous fielding first baseman. And, best of all, he could be a major bargain for somebody. The Fan doesn't think Tampa Bay should re-sign him as he is in too much of a rut there.
8. Jim Thome: The Twins certainly got their money's worth with Thome last year. He can still hit the ball a mile and can still get his fair share of walks. But golly, the guy has to slow down some time. Shown a willingness to play for peanuts.
9. Adam LaRoche: He may be rated too far down this list. Had a serviceable year last year with 25 homers with 100 ribbies. But this Fan just can't get past the strikeouts. 172 last year is just intolerable. And his power may have been inflated by playing in Arizona for half his games.
10. Ty Wiggintin: Wigginton, by all accounts, is a good egg and a great teammate. His willingness to keep trying hard despite his team's struggles early last year say a lot about the type of player he is. But he's simply a marginal talent who, if put in the right place, could have an Aubrey Huff type season.
11. Vladmir Guerrero: Vlad had a great half of a season last year, but really looked ancient in the second half and in the post season. He can only DH which limits his options. He just might have another league average season in him before he heads to the Hall of Fame. It's too bad that the carpet in Montreal ruined so many legs of so many great players.
12. Hideki Matsui: Matsui had a marginal season for the Angels. This Fan feels he is done as a productive major league hitter. He is a proud man who has done great things in his career. Can you see him being a marginal player somewhere for peanuts? This Fan can't.
12. Russell Branyon: Good golly, can he play for another team? He probably will. His power will always get him a cheap look with someone.
13. Manny Ramirez: Wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. Sorry. He can ride off into the Barry Bonds sunset.
The first six on this list may get close to what they want for money. But the rest will be scrambling for jobs and it wouldn't be a surprise if a third of this list wasn't signed by the opening of Spring Training. Life goes on.
That's seventeen players who need to find a job among thirty teams. It seems pretty reasonable that Huff will re-sign with the Giants, so the Fan will leave him out of this conversation. Cantu, Glaus and Thames will be considered role players. The Fan is tempted to put LaRoche in that category, but won't for now. So that brings us down to thirteen to consider as starter types in this position. As the Fan mentioned yesterday, all of the value of these players has to be generated by their bats. Few analysts give first baseman any brownie (or WAR) points for playing first and certainly there are none for playing DH.
Saying all of that, let's take a look at each of the remaining thirteen and rate and rank them and perhaps even make a suggestion or two about which teams they may end up with:
1. Johnny Damon: Surprised? Yeah. Understood. But at 37, Damon still provides flexibility. He can play left, first or DH. Damon can still steal a base for you (22 of 24 the last two years) and hit an occasional dinger. He would be worth a one year deal at $12 to $14. Angels? Tigers?
2. Lance Berkman: Berkman really doesn't want to DH. But he's been a first baseman for a long time and won't hurt you too badly there. Teams shouldn't give up on batting him right handed. The Fan still thinks he has a good year in him. One year deal at $12 to $14 with options.
3. Lyle Overbay: This ranking is surprising the writer as much as you probably. But Overbay is perhaps the best fielder of the bunch at first, has some pop and will give you 70 or more walks a year. Useless against lefty pitchers though. Tampa Bay?
4. Paul Konerko: Last year feels more like an outlier than anything else. It would seem improbable for Konerko to match it. But his problem is that he will want to command the dollars such a year would bring. But at 35, he still may have a couple of valuable seasons left in him. He really isn't much of a first baseman any more but he can play there if that's what you need. He would be an asset for Tampa Bay, but it's doubtful they will spend that kind of money he will want.
5. Derrek Lee: Lee is the same age as Konerko but didn't have the kind of year Konerko did. He looks much older. It wouldn't seem wise to move Lee to the AL, but after watching that World Series, perhaps we have to stop thinking of the AL as the dominant league, eh?
6. Adam Dunn: Dunn is one of the youngest of the bunch, but he plays old. He's slower than a mule and he wasn't disastrous at first base, but he isn't great either. It's also troubling that his walks, long one of his staples, were way down this past year. But he still hit his 38 homers, no? He is another bat that could help the Bay Rays. He would be a perfect fit for them.
7. Carlos Pena: Pena has had two awful seasons in a row. But it really seems like if he had a chance to work with a really good batting coach, he could come back in a big way. His power is still there. He's still a tremendous fielding first baseman. And, best of all, he could be a major bargain for somebody. The Fan doesn't think Tampa Bay should re-sign him as he is in too much of a rut there.
8. Jim Thome: The Twins certainly got their money's worth with Thome last year. He can still hit the ball a mile and can still get his fair share of walks. But golly, the guy has to slow down some time. Shown a willingness to play for peanuts.
9. Adam LaRoche: He may be rated too far down this list. Had a serviceable year last year with 25 homers with 100 ribbies. But this Fan just can't get past the strikeouts. 172 last year is just intolerable. And his power may have been inflated by playing in Arizona for half his games.
10. Ty Wiggintin: Wigginton, by all accounts, is a good egg and a great teammate. His willingness to keep trying hard despite his team's struggles early last year say a lot about the type of player he is. But he's simply a marginal talent who, if put in the right place, could have an Aubrey Huff type season.
11. Vladmir Guerrero: Vlad had a great half of a season last year, but really looked ancient in the second half and in the post season. He can only DH which limits his options. He just might have another league average season in him before he heads to the Hall of Fame. It's too bad that the carpet in Montreal ruined so many legs of so many great players.
12. Hideki Matsui: Matsui had a marginal season for the Angels. This Fan feels he is done as a productive major league hitter. He is a proud man who has done great things in his career. Can you see him being a marginal player somewhere for peanuts? This Fan can't.
12. Russell Branyon: Good golly, can he play for another team? He probably will. His power will always get him a cheap look with someone.
13. Manny Ramirez: Wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. Sorry. He can ride off into the Barry Bonds sunset.
The first six on this list may get close to what they want for money. But the rest will be scrambling for jobs and it wouldn't be a surprise if a third of this list wasn't signed by the opening of Spring Training. Life goes on.
Can't Find Faulta With Peralta
When this post was conceived, there was the overwhelming urge to ask the Detroit Tigers just what the heck they were doing in signing Jhonny Peralta to a two year deal worth nearly six mil a season. Really? Jhonny Peralta. But then, after taking a look at this stats, the contract really isn't that bad a deal for the Tigers.
Peralta had one really bad year in 2009. He bounced back to his career norms for 2010 (though he didn't play that well for Detroit after he was traded). But those career norms average around $6 million a year in value. Peralta is a reliable fielder with good range at third (but not at short) with a good arm. His defensive numbers have been reliably on the north side of zero for most of his career. Like his offense, Peralta's defense suffered a bit after he was traded to the Tigers. But perhaps that can be explained by a lack of comfort in being thrown into a new arrangement after years at Cleveland.
Peralta will give you 15 to 18 homers a year with 30+ doubles thrown in. His OPS+ has averaged just around the league norm. He strikes out too much and gives you a walk occasionally, but he won't kill you with his offense. Plus, he is only 28 years old and should be in his peak years. Two years at almost $12 million for a guy who has an average worth of $6 million is not signing Peralta at below market value, but at least his next two seasons should be peak and the deal could become a bargain.
It's funny how sometimes perception becomes reality in one's mind. This Fan has never been impressed with Peralta. The Tigers have already signed Inge though, so Peralta will play short? If that is the case, the Fan likes the deal a little less because Peralta at shortstop is not his best position. But it's not a bad move. It may not be the juiciest deal for Tigers' fans, but at least it wasn't stupid or something like this Fan at first thought.
Peralta had one really bad year in 2009. He bounced back to his career norms for 2010 (though he didn't play that well for Detroit after he was traded). But those career norms average around $6 million a year in value. Peralta is a reliable fielder with good range at third (but not at short) with a good arm. His defensive numbers have been reliably on the north side of zero for most of his career. Like his offense, Peralta's defense suffered a bit after he was traded to the Tigers. But perhaps that can be explained by a lack of comfort in being thrown into a new arrangement after years at Cleveland.
Peralta will give you 15 to 18 homers a year with 30+ doubles thrown in. His OPS+ has averaged just around the league norm. He strikes out too much and gives you a walk occasionally, but he won't kill you with his offense. Plus, he is only 28 years old and should be in his peak years. Two years at almost $12 million for a guy who has an average worth of $6 million is not signing Peralta at below market value, but at least his next two seasons should be peak and the deal could become a bargain.
It's funny how sometimes perception becomes reality in one's mind. This Fan has never been impressed with Peralta. The Tigers have already signed Inge though, so Peralta will play short? If that is the case, the Fan likes the deal a little less because Peralta at shortstop is not his best position. But it's not a bad move. It may not be the juiciest deal for Tigers' fans, but at least it wasn't stupid or something like this Fan at first thought.
Saturday, November 06, 2010
Chavez Saga Finally Over in Oakland
To call Eric Chavez a sunk cost doesn't come close to describing how bad the long-term contract Chavez signed with Oakland worked out for the A's. Consider if you will that Chavez earned $44 million of the A's money for the last four years and was able to contribute 292 plate appearances in that time span. Long gone were the days where he was an All Star and perennial in the top 20 in MVP voting. This wasn't exactly like the Barry Zito deal with the Giants. At least Zito was contributing somewhere close to league average on a regular basis. Chavez was able to provide nothing. The nightmare for the A's (and the Fan supposes, for Chavez) was more similar to the Carl Pavano deal the Yankees made several years ago.
This Fan took to calling the player's sunk cost, "The Real Chavez Ravine." Every year, there would be some sort of hope that Chavez would be able to get on the field for the team. But the sad reality is that they were better off when he didn't play. His combined slash line for the last three seasons was .212/.265/.317. But there is more to this story than just the past three years of nothingness. The three seasons prior the last three featured a player who barely mustered league average in his plate appearances and tailed off dramatically in the field. So if you add all that up, that is three years of league average and three years of nothingness (a total of six years) at a cost of $67 million dollars.
From 2001 to 2004, Chavez was a very good player playing on a very good team. He averaged 32 homers a year. Over that span he averaged a 128 OPS+. His best season was 2004 when he finished with a 134 OPS+ and walked 95 times. It was right after that season that his salary went from $5.5 million to $8.5 million and his salary has risen every year since. But he was never again better than league average after 2004.
Many will speculate over the reasons for the timing of his swoon and for the nagging quality of his injuries since. But this Fan won't go there. But one fact is evidently clear: The A's got hosed on this deal.
But it's finally over. In one of the most overlooked stories of month, the A's declined the 2011 option on Chavez. The A's are finally free and can move on with their strategies without the anchor the contract placed on the team. And finally, the Oakland A's fans have to find something else to gnash their teeth about (not that this writer could blame them).
This Fan took to calling the player's sunk cost, "The Real Chavez Ravine." Every year, there would be some sort of hope that Chavez would be able to get on the field for the team. But the sad reality is that they were better off when he didn't play. His combined slash line for the last three seasons was .212/.265/.317. But there is more to this story than just the past three years of nothingness. The three seasons prior the last three featured a player who barely mustered league average in his plate appearances and tailed off dramatically in the field. So if you add all that up, that is three years of league average and three years of nothingness (a total of six years) at a cost of $67 million dollars.
From 2001 to 2004, Chavez was a very good player playing on a very good team. He averaged 32 homers a year. Over that span he averaged a 128 OPS+. His best season was 2004 when he finished with a 134 OPS+ and walked 95 times. It was right after that season that his salary went from $5.5 million to $8.5 million and his salary has risen every year since. But he was never again better than league average after 2004.
Many will speculate over the reasons for the timing of his swoon and for the nagging quality of his injuries since. But this Fan won't go there. But one fact is evidently clear: The A's got hosed on this deal.
But it's finally over. In one of the most overlooked stories of month, the A's declined the 2011 option on Chavez. The A's are finally free and can move on with their strategies without the anchor the contract placed on the team. And finally, the Oakland A's fans have to find something else to gnash their teeth about (not that this writer could blame them).
Don't Write Off Montero as a Catcher
Everybody loves Jesus Montero's bat. But nearly everybody is concerned about how well he can catch. This writer just read a few scouting reports yesterday that stated that Montero will never be good enough to catch in the major leagues. Those of us that have been following this great game for a long time have heard that before.
Just last year, scouting reports also said that Buster Posey will never be a good enough major league catcher. It seems to the Fan that he did pretty darn well after he got called up by the Giants. But there is another and more poignant example. His name was Lawrence "Yogi" Berra. If you read his wonderful biography, no one gave him a chance to be a big league catcher either. He was considered awful. Really awful. But Berra worked with Bill Dickey and others and he worked hard and he became one of the best all around catchers that ever played the game.
It's not like Montero has a dearth of help around the Yankees brass. Tony Pena was one of the best and most underrated catchers that ever played the position. He is the Yankees' bench coach. Joe Girardi himself is a former catcher. The one wild card is how hard Montero is willing to work to make it happen. Berra threw himself at the process and that turned out great. Posey threw himself at the process and that turned out well too. If Montero has enough talent to tattoo a baseball with a bat, he has enough talent to play adequately behind the plate. And if scouting reports can be believed, this guy is going to tattoo the baseball.
And besides, how much worse can he be behind the plate than Posada? Come on...you had to know THAT was coming!
Just last year, scouting reports also said that Buster Posey will never be a good enough major league catcher. It seems to the Fan that he did pretty darn well after he got called up by the Giants. But there is another and more poignant example. His name was Lawrence "Yogi" Berra. If you read his wonderful biography, no one gave him a chance to be a big league catcher either. He was considered awful. Really awful. But Berra worked with Bill Dickey and others and he worked hard and he became one of the best all around catchers that ever played the game.
It's not like Montero has a dearth of help around the Yankees brass. Tony Pena was one of the best and most underrated catchers that ever played the position. He is the Yankees' bench coach. Joe Girardi himself is a former catcher. The one wild card is how hard Montero is willing to work to make it happen. Berra threw himself at the process and that turned out great. Posey threw himself at the process and that turned out well too. If Montero has enough talent to tattoo a baseball with a bat, he has enough talent to play adequately behind the plate. And if scouting reports can be believed, this guy is going to tattoo the baseball.
And besides, how much worse can he be behind the plate than Posada? Come on...you had to know THAT was coming!
What Will Happen With Prince Fielder?
This writer was going to start this post by asking where Prince Fielder was going to end up. But the question is slightly more complex than that. The bigger question is what will happen with Fielder. The Brewers control him for one more season before he hits free agency in 2012. What will happen in the short term will depend a lot on how the Brewers start the season. If they start out hot and in contention, they will have no choice but to hold on to him similar to what happened in San Diego with Adrian Gonzalez--a name, by the way, that will figure a lot into Fielder's future.
If the Brewers contend this season, then Fielder's free agency candidacy will take a hit if he and Gonzalez hit the market at the same time. Gonzalez is more athletic and a better fielder and gives you the same power package. Fielder walks more but more teams will covet Gonzalez than Fielder because of perception and frankly, because of Fielder's size.
And we might as well talk about Fielder's size. It's a no win topic for a writer as it makes us look like we are biased against overweight people. But the fact is right there in front of us that Fielder looked even bigger this past year than in the year before. Like it or not, that will cause a lot of teams to have concerns on Fielder's long term viability.
Okay, we've determined that if the Brewers are in contention, they are much better with him on board. His 137 OPS+ this past season was below his standards and he has a history of having really great seasons every other year (in other words, he's due this year). His 113 walks are probably even more desirable and productive than his massive power. The Brewers would take a very serious hit to their hopes if they traded him unless they got some real stud in return (which will never happen). But what if the Brewers don't contend?
If the Brewers don't contend, then Fielder will be gone by the trading deadline. Several teams are weak at first base (the Rangers come to mind) and several are weak at DH. If a team needs a big bat to get over the hump and into the playoffs and beyond, Fielder will make a very attractive rental. He's hit for good power in interleague match ups (his batting average is low due to bad luck and a low BABIP) so changing leagues shouldn't be a problem for him.
And that's the big problem for Fielder. Everyone would want him for a season. But very few are going to want to commit to him for three, four or five seasons. His physical presence is simply too scary. The one thing working in his favor is that he will only be 27 after next season and a team would have to figure he would have three or four more years in him anyway.
His position hurts him too. Most teams now defer in large part to baseball analysts who help GMs determine a player's value. A first baseman is considered less valuable than a shortstop or other positions, so a first baseman has to generate all his value with what he can do at the plate. If Fielder has a season like 2009, then he at least is earning a $20 to $25 million season. But if he has a season like 2010 (which was still pretty darn good), his value goes all the way down to about $12-14 million. That's a big swing and 2009 makes inking Fielder a good deal while 2010 other makes it a terrible deal. Fielder isn't much of a first baseman, so...again...he adds no value with his position.
The other problem with his position is that there are so many top ranking sluggers already playing first base around the league. There is Pujols, Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Morneau and on and on it goes. It doesn't seem possible that any team will give Fielder and Boras the kind of money they will be seeking.
But there are also teams that crave the kind of OBP that Fielder gives you. He truly is fantastic at walking. A large number of teams now covet On Base Percentage above all else. That is helpful to Fielder. Either way, Fielder is going to sweat it out in 2012 to see if someone will bite the apple and give him the kind of money and time that he will be seeking.
It seems certain that he will not be a Brewer after 2011. As to how long he will be a Brewer in 2011 will all depend on how the Brewers do coming out of the gate.
If the Brewers contend this season, then Fielder's free agency candidacy will take a hit if he and Gonzalez hit the market at the same time. Gonzalez is more athletic and a better fielder and gives you the same power package. Fielder walks more but more teams will covet Gonzalez than Fielder because of perception and frankly, because of Fielder's size.
And we might as well talk about Fielder's size. It's a no win topic for a writer as it makes us look like we are biased against overweight people. But the fact is right there in front of us that Fielder looked even bigger this past year than in the year before. Like it or not, that will cause a lot of teams to have concerns on Fielder's long term viability.
Okay, we've determined that if the Brewers are in contention, they are much better with him on board. His 137 OPS+ this past season was below his standards and he has a history of having really great seasons every other year (in other words, he's due this year). His 113 walks are probably even more desirable and productive than his massive power. The Brewers would take a very serious hit to their hopes if they traded him unless they got some real stud in return (which will never happen). But what if the Brewers don't contend?
If the Brewers don't contend, then Fielder will be gone by the trading deadline. Several teams are weak at first base (the Rangers come to mind) and several are weak at DH. If a team needs a big bat to get over the hump and into the playoffs and beyond, Fielder will make a very attractive rental. He's hit for good power in interleague match ups (his batting average is low due to bad luck and a low BABIP) so changing leagues shouldn't be a problem for him.
And that's the big problem for Fielder. Everyone would want him for a season. But very few are going to want to commit to him for three, four or five seasons. His physical presence is simply too scary. The one thing working in his favor is that he will only be 27 after next season and a team would have to figure he would have three or four more years in him anyway.
His position hurts him too. Most teams now defer in large part to baseball analysts who help GMs determine a player's value. A first baseman is considered less valuable than a shortstop or other positions, so a first baseman has to generate all his value with what he can do at the plate. If Fielder has a season like 2009, then he at least is earning a $20 to $25 million season. But if he has a season like 2010 (which was still pretty darn good), his value goes all the way down to about $12-14 million. That's a big swing and 2009 makes inking Fielder a good deal while 2010 other makes it a terrible deal. Fielder isn't much of a first baseman, so...again...he adds no value with his position.
The other problem with his position is that there are so many top ranking sluggers already playing first base around the league. There is Pujols, Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Morneau and on and on it goes. It doesn't seem possible that any team will give Fielder and Boras the kind of money they will be seeking.
But there are also teams that crave the kind of OBP that Fielder gives you. He truly is fantastic at walking. A large number of teams now covet On Base Percentage above all else. That is helpful to Fielder. Either way, Fielder is going to sweat it out in 2012 to see if someone will bite the apple and give him the kind of money and time that he will be seeking.
It seems certain that he will not be a Brewer after 2011. As to how long he will be a Brewer in 2011 will all depend on how the Brewers do coming out of the gate.
Friday, November 05, 2010
Another Icon Passes
If you were to ask his writer to construct a mind image of what a manager looks like, sounds like and acts like, this writer would immediately think of Sparky Anderson. Of all the managers that the Fan has witnessed in a lifetime of watching ballgames, Anderson and Ralph Houk came closest to the ideal of what a manager is supposed to be. Managers are supposed to be tough and at times gruff. They are to be feared. But at the same time, there was a pathos that a player felt that made them want to bust their tail for the two men. Both were warm and easy going with the press. Both seemed like the kind of man you'd want for a father.
And to be sure, whenever there is a large family, there will be some of the children who think the dad is an SOB. Just ask David Wells about Joe Torre. But a manager like Anderson goes beyond just being a father figure to his players. He becomes the adopted dad of an entire fan body. He will always be loved as such in Cincinnati and in Detroit. A man like that becomes a signpost that we hang our lives on. And it goes beyond simply the two towns he managed in. Can any serious fan in this country who loves the game of baseball really say they didn't like Sparky Anderson? His life became an extension far beyond his local construct.
Losing Anderson is difficult for some reason. It hurts. Sparky Anderson started his career at the age of 36. Yeah, he was a really young MLB manager. Which seems absurd now because he always seemed sort of gray and wrinkled. But he was just starting out with the Reds when this Fan was in high school. We both had our entire lives ahead of us. With youth comes possibility and an endless tomorrow. But now Anderson is gone and this writer feels that much older. Our baseball father died yesterday. And not only does that sadden this writer to know his crinkly smile will no longer appear on this earth, but it also feels like another blow to the time-marching race life sometimes becomes. See ya, Sparky. Thanks for everything.
And to be sure, whenever there is a large family, there will be some of the children who think the dad is an SOB. Just ask David Wells about Joe Torre. But a manager like Anderson goes beyond just being a father figure to his players. He becomes the adopted dad of an entire fan body. He will always be loved as such in Cincinnati and in Detroit. A man like that becomes a signpost that we hang our lives on. And it goes beyond simply the two towns he managed in. Can any serious fan in this country who loves the game of baseball really say they didn't like Sparky Anderson? His life became an extension far beyond his local construct.
Losing Anderson is difficult for some reason. It hurts. Sparky Anderson started his career at the age of 36. Yeah, he was a really young MLB manager. Which seems absurd now because he always seemed sort of gray and wrinkled. But he was just starting out with the Reds when this Fan was in high school. We both had our entire lives ahead of us. With youth comes possibility and an endless tomorrow. But now Anderson is gone and this writer feels that much older. Our baseball father died yesterday. And not only does that sadden this writer to know his crinkly smile will no longer appear on this earth, but it also feels like another blow to the time-marching race life sometimes becomes. See ya, Sparky. Thanks for everything.
Lesson Learned: Don't Be Good in the World Series
sAs the Fan predicted right after the World Series, the Giants declined to pick up the option of Edgar Renteria. In that previous post, Renteria's lack of production the last two years cost the Giants about $16 million of value (he made $18 million and was worth about $2 million). So despite Bruce Bochy's emotional tribute to Renteria being a leader and a great man to be next to in the clubhouse and dugout, the Giants effectively have shown that they don't want Renteria any more. At least not at that price.
Renteria now has something in common with Hideki Matsui. Matsui, you'll remember, was 2009's World Series MVP after single-handedly destroying the Phillies to end that series. A few days later, Brian Cashman cut ties with the DH/LF from Japan. And now a year later, Renteria (often called, "Rent-a-rear" in this Fan's house), the 2010 World Series MVP has felt the same fate. There are no tears in baseball. There is no sentiment. If anyone forgets that baseball is a business, these last two years should cure you of that for life.
So let's peak into 2011's crystal ball. Who will it be next year? The Fan already sees the answer. David Ortiz will have a so-so campaign for the Red Sox but then the Red Sox get to the World Series. David Ortiz hits two homers and a double and drives in six runs in the World Series. A few days later, Epstein will announce that the Red Sox have no interest in David Ortiz for 2012. Book it.
Renteria now has something in common with Hideki Matsui. Matsui, you'll remember, was 2009's World Series MVP after single-handedly destroying the Phillies to end that series. A few days later, Brian Cashman cut ties with the DH/LF from Japan. And now a year later, Renteria (often called, "Rent-a-rear" in this Fan's house), the 2010 World Series MVP has felt the same fate. There are no tears in baseball. There is no sentiment. If anyone forgets that baseball is a business, these last two years should cure you of that for life.
So let's peak into 2011's crystal ball. Who will it be next year? The Fan already sees the answer. David Ortiz will have a so-so campaign for the Red Sox but then the Red Sox get to the World Series. David Ortiz hits two homers and a double and drives in six runs in the World Series. A few days later, Epstein will announce that the Red Sox have no interest in David Ortiz for 2012. Book it.
What Was That All About?
The old baseball ticker has been humming with teams either declining to pick up player options for next year or picking them up. David Ortiz got his extension but not a contract. Edgar Renteria became the second straight World Series MVP to be sent packing right after getting the hardware. Adrian Beltre declined his option to become a free agent. And on an on the wheel spins. Just about the strangest story though comes out of Toronto.
This Fan has been quite complimentary so far of the Blue Jays' new general manager.* It seems the new guy has a lot on the ball and he made a fine managerial selection among many of the other moves he has made. But the story today was a little reminder that nobody is perfect.
*(Posnanski asterisk): You will probably notice that this Fan never types the Blue Jays' general manager's name. That's because it's impossible to remember and even if you could remember it, you can't spell it. So, he is either AA or that Blue Jays GM.
It seems that the Rockies traded catcher, Miguel Olivo, to the Blue Jays for the old player to be named later. The Rockies didn't want to pick up Olivo's $2.5 million option. It seems that the market for catchers is pretty soft these days with not a whole lot of money to be made. The only problem with this deal was that the Blue Jays had to pick up Olivo's option before a time deadline. At the last minute, they decided to decline the option and just pay Olivo his $500,000 buyout. Whuh?
So the Blue Jays will lose a player and now they are out $500,000 and ended up with nothing? Do they get a compensation pick? Perhaps. This Fan would imagine that Olivo is a Type B or something which will net the Jays a pick. Okay. The Fan feels a lot better now. So, then. If you boil it all down, the Blue Jays gave up a player and paid $500,000 for a draft pick. Better be a heck of a pick, eh?
**Update: Mr. Neyer wrote today that this was a brilliant move. Well...okay...we'll go with that then.
This Fan has been quite complimentary so far of the Blue Jays' new general manager.* It seems the new guy has a lot on the ball and he made a fine managerial selection among many of the other moves he has made. But the story today was a little reminder that nobody is perfect.
*(Posnanski asterisk): You will probably notice that this Fan never types the Blue Jays' general manager's name. That's because it's impossible to remember and even if you could remember it, you can't spell it. So, he is either AA or that Blue Jays GM.
It seems that the Rockies traded catcher, Miguel Olivo, to the Blue Jays for the old player to be named later. The Rockies didn't want to pick up Olivo's $2.5 million option. It seems that the market for catchers is pretty soft these days with not a whole lot of money to be made. The only problem with this deal was that the Blue Jays had to pick up Olivo's option before a time deadline. At the last minute, they decided to decline the option and just pay Olivo his $500,000 buyout. Whuh?
So the Blue Jays will lose a player and now they are out $500,000 and ended up with nothing? Do they get a compensation pick? Perhaps. This Fan would imagine that Olivo is a Type B or something which will net the Jays a pick. Okay. The Fan feels a lot better now. So, then. If you boil it all down, the Blue Jays gave up a player and paid $500,000 for a draft pick. Better be a heck of a pick, eh?
**Update: Mr. Neyer wrote today that this was a brilliant move. Well...okay...we'll go with that then.
Thursday, November 04, 2010
Twins Like Continuity
Yesterday, the Fan posted on how Mike Scioscia and the Angels keep churning out managerial proteges that end up having success on other teams. It is sort of a present day situation much like Earl Weaver proteges of the past. Perhaps the Red Sox will join that situation as the great Terry Francona has lost a coach to lead the Blue Jays. After posting those thoughts, one of the Fan's favorite commenters (which is probably not a real word) asked why the Twins don't have the same brain drain. It was an excellent question.
Ron Gardenhire has had the same coaching staff for his entire tenure as manager of the Twins. It is truly a remarkable run. Gardy himself succeeded the legendary Tom Kelly. Gardenhire was Kelly's third base coach. And yet, few outside of Minnesota would even know who the Twins' coaches are. They are: Nick Anderson (pitching coach), Joe Vavra (hitting coach), Jerry White (first base coach), Scott Ullger (third base coach), Steve Liddle (bench coach) and Rick Stelmaszek (bullpen coach). Not exactly household names, eh? Only Jerry White had a lengthy playing career and he is the only one of the group without some managing experience in either the minors or in college. The Fan can remember when Gardenhire got the managing job and thought at the time, "Who?" It's no different today.
To this observer, it appears that the Twins value continuity above all else. They are famous for having a solid and consistent value set that is set in place all through their system including the minor leagues. Their instruction and mindset as an organization is legendary. And that seems to be modeled at the major league level. The Fan would also assume that the Twins reward their instructors and their coaches well enough to keep them happy in their places. Plus, they probably build a team mentality above all else and that kind of loyalty is hard to leave when a family is built that all moves together.
No, the Twins are not like the Angels or the Patriots in the NFL who do a fantastic job of turning over their coaching staff regularly and bring in equally competent people. The Twins are all about doing things the Twins way and who can argue with their success. The only knock on the Twins is that they haven't taken their success to the next level to win a championship.
Thanks for the comment, my friend, and it is hoped this somewhat answers your question.
Ron Gardenhire has had the same coaching staff for his entire tenure as manager of the Twins. It is truly a remarkable run. Gardy himself succeeded the legendary Tom Kelly. Gardenhire was Kelly's third base coach. And yet, few outside of Minnesota would even know who the Twins' coaches are. They are: Nick Anderson (pitching coach), Joe Vavra (hitting coach), Jerry White (first base coach), Scott Ullger (third base coach), Steve Liddle (bench coach) and Rick Stelmaszek (bullpen coach). Not exactly household names, eh? Only Jerry White had a lengthy playing career and he is the only one of the group without some managing experience in either the minors or in college. The Fan can remember when Gardenhire got the managing job and thought at the time, "Who?" It's no different today.
To this observer, it appears that the Twins value continuity above all else. They are famous for having a solid and consistent value set that is set in place all through their system including the minor leagues. Their instruction and mindset as an organization is legendary. And that seems to be modeled at the major league level. The Fan would also assume that the Twins reward their instructors and their coaches well enough to keep them happy in their places. Plus, they probably build a team mentality above all else and that kind of loyalty is hard to leave when a family is built that all moves together.
No, the Twins are not like the Angels or the Patriots in the NFL who do a fantastic job of turning over their coaching staff regularly and bring in equally competent people. The Twins are all about doing things the Twins way and who can argue with their success. The only knock on the Twins is that they haven't taken their success to the next level to win a championship.
Thanks for the comment, my friend, and it is hoped this somewhat answers your question.
Edwin Rodriguez Retained by the Marlins
Ha! This Fan just loves being right. The Marlins decided to save on the budget (big surprise there, eh?) and retained manager Edwin Rodriguez for the year as their manager. A post here a while back predicted that the Marlins would wait out their current situation until they get in their new ballpark and would retain Rodriguez because he is cost effective. And make no mistake about it, this is a financial and business decision and not a baseball decision.
The thing is, it may work out anyway. This Fan has no disrespect for Rodriguez. He seems like a class act and his players like him. Of course, there was that little problem of leading off Hanley Ramirez for a month and playing Bonifacio far too often down the stretch, but still, he seems like a good guy. But that isn't why it may just work out.
It may work out because the Marlins have quietly been putting more and more talent on the field. Mike Stanton is going to be a monster. Logan Morrison could be a talented and consistent bat. Gaby Sanchez is competent in a Mark Grace kind of way. Coghlin should be back and don't be surprised if Hanley Ramirez doesn't come back and have a monster season.
Say all you want about Hanley Ramirez, but how many of us know how hampered he was in 2010 because of lingering leg issues? Sure, some of his issue is a lack of maturity, but he was immature when he had a monster season in 2009. This observer really feels that his sub par season in 2010 was more about injury than it was about anything else. It said a lot to this Fan that the first call Rodriguez got after the announcement was from Hanley Ramirez who told Rodriguez that both were going to have a great season. Book it.
The Fish will have to figure out their bullpen and will have to decide if Uggla is going to get some money (and hopefully where he should play). But despite Loria's going on the cheap with his manager, this all could work out nicely and this Fan wouldn't be a bit surprised if the Marlins were right in contention in the NL East in 2011
The thing is, it may work out anyway. This Fan has no disrespect for Rodriguez. He seems like a class act and his players like him. Of course, there was that little problem of leading off Hanley Ramirez for a month and playing Bonifacio far too often down the stretch, but still, he seems like a good guy. But that isn't why it may just work out.
It may work out because the Marlins have quietly been putting more and more talent on the field. Mike Stanton is going to be a monster. Logan Morrison could be a talented and consistent bat. Gaby Sanchez is competent in a Mark Grace kind of way. Coghlin should be back and don't be surprised if Hanley Ramirez doesn't come back and have a monster season.
Say all you want about Hanley Ramirez, but how many of us know how hampered he was in 2010 because of lingering leg issues? Sure, some of his issue is a lack of maturity, but he was immature when he had a monster season in 2009. This observer really feels that his sub par season in 2010 was more about injury than it was about anything else. It said a lot to this Fan that the first call Rodriguez got after the announcement was from Hanley Ramirez who told Rodriguez that both were going to have a great season. Book it.
The Fish will have to figure out their bullpen and will have to decide if Uggla is going to get some money (and hopefully where he should play). But despite Loria's going on the cheap with his manager, this all could work out nicely and this Fan wouldn't be a bit surprised if the Marlins were right in contention in the NL East in 2011
Wednesday, November 03, 2010
The Boston Red Sox Are Just Plain Smart
While the Yankees made inking Joe Girardi for a multi-year deal (what was the rush?) a priority and Jeter their number two priority, and while the Tampa Bay Rays are figuring out how to stay competitive while slashing payroll, the Boston Red Sox made one of the wisest moves of the off season by signing Curt Young as their new pitching coach. Young will replace John Farrell, who left the Red Sox organization to manage the Toronto Blue Jays.
Both the Yankees and the Red Sox needed pitching coaches. The Yankees have fired Dave Eiland. Curt Young was the best candidate on the market after Oakland inexplicably allowed Young to walk by not increasing their offer to him beyond a year. The Red Sox and Terry Francona knew what they wanted and Young was the top of their list. While the Yankees were splitting attention on other things, the Red Sox pounced and got their man.
Curt Young should be perfect for the Red Sox, a team that will sink or swim with its home grown pitching talent. Lester, Bard, Buchholtz and others will benefit from Young's resume, which can be summed up with Anderson, Braden and the young Oakland A's pitching staff. Young would also be a good guy to get Beckett back on track and would have the type of resume that could make Lackey even better.
Francona is thrilled of course, and who could blame him. He himself alludes to the smartness of the Red Sox' move: “We really caught a break here. We got a really good pitching coach. I’m excited for that. I’m pleased because our expectations are always high, and we got a really good guy for the job.”
It really is no break when the Red Sox management has their heads in the game more than anybody else. Love them or hate them, the Red Sox are really, really smart.
Both the Yankees and the Red Sox needed pitching coaches. The Yankees have fired Dave Eiland. Curt Young was the best candidate on the market after Oakland inexplicably allowed Young to walk by not increasing their offer to him beyond a year. The Red Sox and Terry Francona knew what they wanted and Young was the top of their list. While the Yankees were splitting attention on other things, the Red Sox pounced and got their man.
Curt Young should be perfect for the Red Sox, a team that will sink or swim with its home grown pitching talent. Lester, Bard, Buchholtz and others will benefit from Young's resume, which can be summed up with Anderson, Braden and the young Oakland A's pitching staff. Young would also be a good guy to get Beckett back on track and would have the type of resume that could make Lackey even better.
Francona is thrilled of course, and who could blame him. He himself alludes to the smartness of the Red Sox' move: “We really caught a break here. We got a really good pitching coach. I’m excited for that. I’m pleased because our expectations are always high, and we got a really good guy for the job.”
It really is no break when the Red Sox management has their heads in the game more than anybody else. Love them or hate them, the Red Sox are really, really smart.
Brewers Make a Bold Move
The Milwaukee Brewers look very smart today. While spurning the chance to sign a big time manager like Bobby Valentine, the Brewers went to the deep well of California Angels' coaches by signing Ron Roenicke as their next manager. While unlike the choice of a team like the Mariners (who signed Wedge as their manager), baseball teams all over seem to be making very clear and logical choices in new field leaders. Farrell was a great hire by the Blue Jays. Fredi Gonzalez is a good choice for the Braves. Mike Quade seems like the right choice for the Cubs and now the Brewers. Why Roenicke, you ask?
Mike Scoscia has become one of the standard bearers for managers in Major League Baseball. He has taken teams with arguably less talent than some of his rivals to the playoffs numerous times in the last decade. Along the way, he has provided his coaches with a solid foundation to go and lead other clubs. Need convincing? Okay, how about Bud Black, who coached for Scioscia and came whisker close to getting to the playoffs in 2010. How about Joe Maddon, the Tampa Bay Rays' manager, who used to coach for Scioscia? Maddon has only become one of the most creative and brilliant managers in baseball right now. And Roenicke has worked more closely with Scioscia than any of them.
Ron Roenicke started as the Angels' third base coach and for the last few years has been their bench coach. As a result, he's been Scioscia's right hand man. Of course, that is no guarantee that Roenicke will succeed. Success as a manager depends on talent, communication and motivational skills and...well...at times, luck. Players need to stay healthy and others have to perform at their talent level, etc. But if the Fan were a rooter for the Milwaukee Brewers, today would be a pretty exciting day.
Mike Scoscia has become one of the standard bearers for managers in Major League Baseball. He has taken teams with arguably less talent than some of his rivals to the playoffs numerous times in the last decade. Along the way, he has provided his coaches with a solid foundation to go and lead other clubs. Need convincing? Okay, how about Bud Black, who coached for Scioscia and came whisker close to getting to the playoffs in 2010. How about Joe Maddon, the Tampa Bay Rays' manager, who used to coach for Scioscia? Maddon has only become one of the most creative and brilliant managers in baseball right now. And Roenicke has worked more closely with Scioscia than any of them.
Ron Roenicke started as the Angels' third base coach and for the last few years has been their bench coach. As a result, he's been Scioscia's right hand man. Of course, that is no guarantee that Roenicke will succeed. Success as a manager depends on talent, communication and motivational skills and...well...at times, luck. Players need to stay healthy and others have to perform at their talent level, etc. But if the Fan were a rooter for the Milwaukee Brewers, today would be a pretty exciting day.
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
A Word About NFL Ratings Beating the World Series
A lot of people are talking about the regular season NFL games beating the World Series rating head to head on Sunday and Monday night. A syndicated radio program the Fan listens to in the morning called the Bob and Sheri Show (out of North Carolina?) were having a field day with it and saying how boring a World Series it was and who cared. New York fans and blogs were saying that it was because their Yankees weren't in the World Series to draw the attention. To be sure, Boston fans felt the same way. As you have gathered from what the Fan has been hearing for the last couple of days, most of the conversation is far from rational.
So, okay, let's be rational for a minute. Why is it then that MLB can't beat the NFL's ratings even when it is a World Series? Personally, this observer thought the World Series was full of drama, amazing moments, stupendous pitching and breathtakingly clutch performances. The series involved two different teams which added extra interest. Why wouldn't anyone want to watch that? Perhaps the Fan can offer a few hypotheses.
Those are the rational reasons this Fan can think of. Have we missed any? Either way, it's sad that the MLB and the World Series can't even out rate a regular season football game. But it's the sport the Fan loves. And it's the only game in town.
So, okay, let's be rational for a minute. Why is it then that MLB can't beat the NFL's ratings even when it is a World Series? Personally, this observer thought the World Series was full of drama, amazing moments, stupendous pitching and breathtakingly clutch performances. The series involved two different teams which added extra interest. Why wouldn't anyone want to watch that? Perhaps the Fan can offer a few hypotheses.
- If it's not mine, I don't want it. The Fan makes books for a living. Seven of the books this Fan have authored involve showcasing the oldest houses in a town and giving a history of the house and its occupants. The books are beautiful, well researched and mostly well received. But often, one of those town's residents will pick up the book, leaf through it briefly and say, "How come my house isn't in there?" "Well," the Fan stammers, "I did mail out questionnaires to all the house prospects and put an ad in the paper looking for nominations." The book flipper will shrug and say he/she didn't see anything. The big finishing line is: "If my house isn't in there, I don't want the book." Don't they have any pride in their town? Don't they find the history of their neighbors' houses to be interesting? Isn't that what the WS ratings show us? "If MY team isn't playing, I don't care." The networks show different college teams every Saturday. They can't always be the home team right? Anyway, that's one reason.
- The Networks and MLB have shot themselves in the foot by insisting on prime time games that start at eight in the east. Those games do not get over until midnight or later. People have to work for a living. They aren't going to stay up that late if the previous reason applies. The Fan can remember people skipping out on work and school to gather around the radio or the black and white television to watch the World Series. Televisions were brought into the schools and we watched in assemblies. None of that is possible with how late the games are. Add to that the added length of advertising in between innings and you have a marathon on your hands.
- The NFL could have been polite and not had any night games the week of the World Series. That would have been a nice gesture. But the NFL isn't nice. Never has been. Plus, if weekend games were played during the day, then you wouldn't have to worry about that. Fox could have put the WS on at 4:00 ET instead of a second football game.
- The constant changing of networks each year and inferior networks winning rights loses continuity, foists lousy announcers on us and puts the games on stations not everyone in the country frequents. TBS actually did a pretty fair job of covering the playoffs, but how many households don't get TBS? How many people would actually think to find a game on TBS? Fox has had the World Series for a while now. The broadcasts are awful. Simply awful. Even a semi-conscious John Madden was better than Tim McCarver.
- The gaining perception that baseball games are long and boring. It's bad enough that the print media says that kind of thing all the time, but when the television announcers focus on it, then the perception gets embedded in people's minds. Yeah, games are longer than they used to be. Put commercial breaks back to a minute and that would help. Take away some of the pomp. That would help. But focus on the fact that for all of the hype about the NFL, those games get pretty darn boring too. Touchdown, extra point, commercial, kickoff, commercial. NFL games needlessly drag on for longer than three hours too. And that doesn't include overtime games. Baseball is a beautiful game. Explain it. Celebrate it. Stop knocking it, Media!
- Lingering doubt about the players due to the PED issues. A lot of people still feel duped and the media has taken delight at tearing those giants that helped bring baseball fans back. Those guys became heroes and brought new fans. Then those fans found out that it nobody liked their heroes anymore. Okay, let's move on to something else.
- The pace of baseball simply doesn't reflect our society anymore. We are the McDonalds, one-hour drama generation. We want instant gratification and instant results. Baseball no longer fits the way we live.
- There is a media bias towards largely hyped teams like the Yankees and others. If the media did a better job of hyping all teams, there wouldn't be such a drop of interest.
Those are the rational reasons this Fan can think of. Have we missed any? Either way, it's sad that the MLB and the World Series can't even out rate a regular season football game. But it's the sport the Fan loves. And it's the only game in town.
The Twisted Career of Edgar Renteria
Edgar Renteria has had one of the weirdest careers in history. He's played for six different teams. He's won two gold gloves, had one or two other good fielding years and has not been very good all the other years. He has finished a season over 100 OPS+ five times and has finished under 85 five times. He was one of the best shortstops the Cardinals ever had and is the worst shortstop the Red Sox ever had. He has finished in the top 20 twice for MVP and been an All Star five times. There have been other years where you would never, ever write his name on an All Star ballot. He's led the league in being thrown out stealing (1998) and he's led the league in sacrifice bunts (1997). Both of those distinctions are a baseball analyst's nightmare. But now, eighteen years after he was signed by the Marlins as a 16 year old kid from Columbia and in his fifteenth season--a season to forget mostly--he is now the World Series MVP.
The Giants have paid Edgar Renteria $18 million for the last two years of his services. During the two seasons, he's probably been worth about $2.5 million combined. Up until now, it's probably been their worst deal this side of Barry Zito. But in light of the World Series he just had against the Texas Rangers with a slash line of .412/.444/.765 including two game winning homers and six RBIs and six Runs Scored in just five games, it would be pretty safe to say that the Giants are happy with their investment. But make no mistake about it, no matter how much Bruce Bochy gushed over him at the press conference, Renteria will probably be looking for work next season and he may not get the $8-10 million he's been making for the last six seasons.
But judging by his history, someone will take a chance on him. He'll be playing somewhere. He was a part of the glories of the Florida Marlins' franchise and now the gloriest moment of San Francisco Giants' history. He's created a legend in that city that will never die as long as there are baseball fans. All of which is probably the most improbable of all of the things that have happened this 2010 baseball season.
The Giants have paid Edgar Renteria $18 million for the last two years of his services. During the two seasons, he's probably been worth about $2.5 million combined. Up until now, it's probably been their worst deal this side of Barry Zito. But in light of the World Series he just had against the Texas Rangers with a slash line of .412/.444/.765 including two game winning homers and six RBIs and six Runs Scored in just five games, it would be pretty safe to say that the Giants are happy with their investment. But make no mistake about it, no matter how much Bruce Bochy gushed over him at the press conference, Renteria will probably be looking for work next season and he may not get the $8-10 million he's been making for the last six seasons.
But judging by his history, someone will take a chance on him. He'll be playing somewhere. He was a part of the glories of the Florida Marlins' franchise and now the gloriest moment of San Francisco Giants' history. He's created a legend in that city that will never die as long as there are baseball fans. All of which is probably the most improbable of all of the things that have happened this 2010 baseball season.
Monday, November 01, 2010
Game Picks - Finale!
It's over! It turns out there was only one game to be played in November and the Giants won it. Congratulations, San Fran Fans! And congratulations to the Rangers who had a great season.
It seemed fitting that the Fan's final pick was incorrect. Nobody gave the Giants enough credit and they showed us all wrong. What an amazing team they turned out to be.
So now that it's over, the Fan can put this blog feature to bed for the winter and resurrect it when the baseball season starts anew in the spring. It's kind of sad, really. The Fifth Dimension song comes to mind with the lyrics slightly altered:
One less game to ponder
One less pick to try.
One less man to stick up for
and all I do is...cry.
It's been fun, folks. But the horizontally challenged lady has sung at last.
Final Season Tally: 1379-1050 56.8%
It seemed fitting that the Fan's final pick was incorrect. Nobody gave the Giants enough credit and they showed us all wrong. What an amazing team they turned out to be.
So now that it's over, the Fan can put this blog feature to bed for the winter and resurrect it when the baseball season starts anew in the spring. It's kind of sad, really. The Fifth Dimension song comes to mind with the lyrics slightly altered:
One less game to ponder
One less pick to try.
One less man to stick up for
and all I do is...cry.
It's been fun, folks. But the horizontally challenged lady has sung at last.
Final Season Tally: 1379-1050 56.8%
Mets' New GM Inherits a Promising Team
Now that the Mets have themselves a new general manager in place, they need a manager. The type of manager they decide to hire will depend on how they intend to rebuild the ball club. If the Mets intend to build from within, then they need a manager who has a history of developing stars out of young players. If they intend to get stronger from without the organization, that would mean a different type of manager. Let's look at where the Mets currently are and make a few observations..
The left side of the infield is seemingly all set. Reyes had a decent bounce back season and held his own. To miss as much time as he did and still hit above league average is a really good sign. He also held his own in the field. With a dearth of good shortstops in the game right now, Reyes is the least of their troubles. The Fan really doesn't like him as a lead off man though. He just doesn't get on base enough. The Mets fared much better in games that Pagan leads off. But we'll get to him in a minute.
David Wright is not a good third baseman. He made 20 errors over there and his defensive metrics don't rate that as a fluke. But his offense certainly came back in a big way in 2010. So there is not much you can do about his defense and just keep plugging him in the line up at third the same way that the Braves put Chipper Jones over there all those years despite his defense. It was great to see Wright bounce back from his initial Citi Field swoon.
The right side of the infield is only half set. Ike Davis had a decent rookie season and should improve upon that with time. He's a really slick fielding first baseman and his power will improve as he gains experience. His On Base Percentage will also improve as he learns the league. An 111 OPS+ for a rookie is a lot better than people realize.
That leaves second base and it's a real problem. Castillo has another year left on his horrible contract. He is not the answer any more, especially since he'll be 35 in 2011. And Joey Cora was even worse filling in for Castillo. If the Mets were smart, neither would play a single game this season for the Mets. But then what? Well, they are going to have to find somebody. Isn't that what Alderson is supposed to do?
The outifield is a puzzle the Mets will need to figure out. Pagan has had a nice couple of years despite not being thought of to be that good a player. He did start to fade in 2010 as the season wore on. Angel Pagan, who has one of the best oxymornic names in baseball history, did play fantastic in the field though. So maybe you do start him in center. Which means that if Carlos Beltran is healthy, he should be moved to right field. Beltran, in his prime, was one of the best center fielders in the game. But he hasn't been in his prime for a couple of years now. If Torii Hunter can move to right, so can Beltran.
Left field was a waste land last year as Jason Bay was a huge bust for the Mets. But what can they do? Bay is signed for multiple years at too much money and nobody will want to take him off the Mets' hands. All the Mets can do is hope that he bounces back offensively and cringe a little inside whenever a ball is hit in his direction. Bay's signing is one of the real albatross fiascoes of the previous regime.
There is great news behind the plate. Josh Thole is terrific! It should excite Mets' fans that they will have a full year of Thole with his excellent defensive peripherals and the fact that he knows what to do with a bat in his hand too. He only struck out once more than he walked in his brief time with the Mets. Thole is a big reason for optimism in 2011.
This Fan is kind of excited about the Mets' rotation with or without Santana. Pelfrey is streaky, but he's growing into a good starter. Jonathan Niese showed flashes of brilliance and should continue to get better. R. A. Dickey seems poised to be the next Niekro/Wakefield. Dillon Gee pitched well despite his K/BB ratios not being anywhere near his minor league numbers. If he can approach the splits that he did in the minors, he could be really good.
To round out the rotation, stick Jenrry Meija in the rotation and leave him there. He looked like he pitched a bit scared last year. But tell him to trust his stuff and throw strikes and he can be fantastic. He's got the best pure stuff in the Mets' organization and he's still growing. He can be an ace if the Mets just show him that he is allowed to fail in the strike zone.
The bullpen was decent in 2010. Parnell was a nice surprise as well as Dessens. And this Fan believes that Fransisco Rodriguez will come back with renewed appreciation for baseball. The Fan fully expects that if K-Rod comes back with renewed fire and better perspective, he can be terrific still. Plus, he will have a manager that won't abuse him the way that Manuel did.
Alderson inherits a situation that wasn't about bad talent. It was just a bad atmosphere. If he hires the right manager, this team has the talent to contend in 2011 and beyond. Oh, and besides that, get rid of Oliver Perez at any cost. Dump him if you can't trade him. He has no business being near this team. But other than that, the New York Mets aren't in bad shape.
The left side of the infield is seemingly all set. Reyes had a decent bounce back season and held his own. To miss as much time as he did and still hit above league average is a really good sign. He also held his own in the field. With a dearth of good shortstops in the game right now, Reyes is the least of their troubles. The Fan really doesn't like him as a lead off man though. He just doesn't get on base enough. The Mets fared much better in games that Pagan leads off. But we'll get to him in a minute.
David Wright is not a good third baseman. He made 20 errors over there and his defensive metrics don't rate that as a fluke. But his offense certainly came back in a big way in 2010. So there is not much you can do about his defense and just keep plugging him in the line up at third the same way that the Braves put Chipper Jones over there all those years despite his defense. It was great to see Wright bounce back from his initial Citi Field swoon.
The right side of the infield is only half set. Ike Davis had a decent rookie season and should improve upon that with time. He's a really slick fielding first baseman and his power will improve as he gains experience. His On Base Percentage will also improve as he learns the league. An 111 OPS+ for a rookie is a lot better than people realize.
That leaves second base and it's a real problem. Castillo has another year left on his horrible contract. He is not the answer any more, especially since he'll be 35 in 2011. And Joey Cora was even worse filling in for Castillo. If the Mets were smart, neither would play a single game this season for the Mets. But then what? Well, they are going to have to find somebody. Isn't that what Alderson is supposed to do?
The outifield is a puzzle the Mets will need to figure out. Pagan has had a nice couple of years despite not being thought of to be that good a player. He did start to fade in 2010 as the season wore on. Angel Pagan, who has one of the best oxymornic names in baseball history, did play fantastic in the field though. So maybe you do start him in center. Which means that if Carlos Beltran is healthy, he should be moved to right field. Beltran, in his prime, was one of the best center fielders in the game. But he hasn't been in his prime for a couple of years now. If Torii Hunter can move to right, so can Beltran.
Left field was a waste land last year as Jason Bay was a huge bust for the Mets. But what can they do? Bay is signed for multiple years at too much money and nobody will want to take him off the Mets' hands. All the Mets can do is hope that he bounces back offensively and cringe a little inside whenever a ball is hit in his direction. Bay's signing is one of the real albatross fiascoes of the previous regime.
There is great news behind the plate. Josh Thole is terrific! It should excite Mets' fans that they will have a full year of Thole with his excellent defensive peripherals and the fact that he knows what to do with a bat in his hand too. He only struck out once more than he walked in his brief time with the Mets. Thole is a big reason for optimism in 2011.
This Fan is kind of excited about the Mets' rotation with or without Santana. Pelfrey is streaky, but he's growing into a good starter. Jonathan Niese showed flashes of brilliance and should continue to get better. R. A. Dickey seems poised to be the next Niekro/Wakefield. Dillon Gee pitched well despite his K/BB ratios not being anywhere near his minor league numbers. If he can approach the splits that he did in the minors, he could be really good.
To round out the rotation, stick Jenrry Meija in the rotation and leave him there. He looked like he pitched a bit scared last year. But tell him to trust his stuff and throw strikes and he can be fantastic. He's got the best pure stuff in the Mets' organization and he's still growing. He can be an ace if the Mets just show him that he is allowed to fail in the strike zone.
The bullpen was decent in 2010. Parnell was a nice surprise as well as Dessens. And this Fan believes that Fransisco Rodriguez will come back with renewed appreciation for baseball. The Fan fully expects that if K-Rod comes back with renewed fire and better perspective, he can be terrific still. Plus, he will have a manager that won't abuse him the way that Manuel did.
Alderson inherits a situation that wasn't about bad talent. It was just a bad atmosphere. If he hires the right manager, this team has the talent to contend in 2011 and beyond. Oh, and besides that, get rid of Oliver Perez at any cost. Dump him if you can't trade him. He has no business being near this team. But other than that, the New York Mets aren't in bad shape.
Game Picks - Monday: November 1, 2010
November baseball. Yuck. It still doesn't sound right. Yankee fans may be gloating that the WS ratings are way down because they aren't playing, but it doesn't help when the WS has to go head to head with football. It also doesn't help when those of us in the northern half of the country are all bundled up and freezing. All we can think about is the oil bill, never mind the World Series.
But, that was quite a game Bumgarner threw at the Rangers last night. Totally wasn't expecting that. The Fan did expect Hunter to finish early, which did happen. But it was figured that Bumgarner would finish early too and give up a few runs. He most certainly did neither.
Tonight we have a rematch of Lee versus Lincecum. There really are only three outcomes. 1. Lee pitches brilliantly and the Rangers scratch out a run or two off of Lincecum. 2. Lincecum pitches brilliantly and the Giants scratch out a couple of runs off of Lee or, finally, 3. Both pitchers pitch brilliantly and it becomes a bullpen game. The first favors the Rangers, the latter two favors the Giants. So, two out of three should send the pick to the Giants. The Fan's pick?
- The Rangers over the Giants: This is what the Rangers got Lee for. They are home. They are desperate. The Series is going back to the Bay.
Month: 43-34
Season: 1379-1049
But, that was quite a game Bumgarner threw at the Rangers last night. Totally wasn't expecting that. The Fan did expect Hunter to finish early, which did happen. But it was figured that Bumgarner would finish early too and give up a few runs. He most certainly did neither.
Tonight we have a rematch of Lee versus Lincecum. There really are only three outcomes. 1. Lee pitches brilliantly and the Rangers scratch out a run or two off of Lincecum. 2. Lincecum pitches brilliantly and the Giants scratch out a couple of runs off of Lee or, finally, 3. Both pitchers pitch brilliantly and it becomes a bullpen game. The first favors the Rangers, the latter two favors the Giants. So, two out of three should send the pick to the Giants. The Fan's pick?
- The Rangers over the Giants: This is what the Rangers got Lee for. They are home. They are desperate. The Series is going back to the Bay.
Month: 43-34
Season: 1379-1049
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Game Picks - Sunday: October 31, 2010
This picker is still perfect for the World Series. Colby Lewis was terrific and rookie, Mike Moreland, got the thrill of his life by hitting a three-run homer. Superman, Josh Hamilton, also hit one out. Now it is up to Hunter to keep the Rangers in the series. He faces Bumgarner, a very good pitcher in his own right.
And so, to keep the perfect World Series record alive, the pick goes to:
- The Rangers over the Giants: The home team has won every game. Like the right-hander match up against the Giants. The Rangers' bullpen will have to be solid though as this figures to be a bullpen game early.
Month: 43-33
Season: 1379-1048
And so, to keep the perfect World Series record alive, the pick goes to:
- The Rangers over the Giants: The home team has won every game. Like the right-hander match up against the Giants. The Rangers' bullpen will have to be solid though as this figures to be a bullpen game early.
Month: 43-33
Season: 1379-1048
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Are Jonathan Sanchez's Stats Misleading?
There is this queasy feeling in the pit of the Fan's stomach because every day it becomes more clear that this writer often doesn't know what the heck he is talking about. This old guy has attempted to become conversant with the amazing number of statistics now bandied about. As a result, this Fan has little confidence that he can truly figure out a player's worth with any degree of accuracy. To be sure, people out there must be able to come close to figuring out that kind of thing. But the Fan would hazard a guess that there are more people in this writer's boat than are in the accurate elite ("elite" is not used here as a derogatory, just so you know). Most people would probably be in this writer's boat by stating that Jonathan Sanchez is a great pitcher who had a great year. But every time this observer watches Sanchez pitch, the feeling is always, "Is this all there is?"
No doubt the feeling comes from watching Sanchez pitch game after game where he has 80+ pitches notched by the fourth inning. Sanchez averaged 5.818 innings per start (yes, the Fan did throw out his one relief appearance). Or perhaps it is the fact that only 46.8% of his pitches are actually in the strike zone. He is often fortunate that anyone ever swings at one of his pitches. The figure, by the way, was the lowest of his career. His first pitch strike percentage was also the lowest of his career. There is no doubt that some of his success was due to the fact that more batters facing Sanchez swung at more pitches out of the strike zone than ever before. That's called O-Swing Percentage for those who need to know. So he threw less pitches in the strike zone, he threw less first pitch strikes and yet more batters swung at pitches outside the strike zone.
But what about the quality of his opponents? Giving you a full rundown of his game log for 2010 would stretch your patience. Besides, you can do that yourself at baseball-reference.com. Let's just do a summary:
Great games: April (2) Pittsburgh, San Diego. Not very good offenses. May (1) San Diego ibid. June (1) Orioles before they became the fighting Showalters. July (1) Mets. August (3) Colorado at Colorado. Okay, that's impressive; Phillies. Impressive again but the Phillies were struggling at the time. Colorado at home. September (2) Dodgers twice. Torre's team was dead in the water by September.
Good games: April (1) Phillies. But that is a stretch as he gave up 9 base runners in five innings covering 106 pitches. May (3) Mets, Oakland, Arizona. 19 innings, 4 homers, 329 pitches, 9 walks, but only 7 earned runs. June (1) Pittsburgh. July (1) Brewers. 6 innings, 11 base runners but only one run. August (0). September (1) Arizona.
So-So games: April (1) Phillies. Five innings, nine base runners, 107 pitches. May (1) San Diego. 4 runs on 7 hits, no walks. June (1) Cincinnati. Five innings, ten base runners, 3 runs. July (1) Arizona. Five innings, one run, 109 pitches, 10 base runners. August (1) Padres in a loss. Five plus innings. September (2) Cubs, Padres.
Bad games: April (1) Braves. May (1) Rockies. June (3) Red Sox, Dodgers, Blue Jays. July (2) Nationals, Marlins. August (2) Braves, Reds. September (0).
If the Fan is looking at all that right, then the only quality offenses Sanchez had either a great or good outing against was the Rockies twice and the Phillies twice. So, in conclusion, Sanchez's statistics are somewhat misleading. He doesn't fare well against good offenses as the post season is clearly showing us. A conclusion which many of you will probably confirm that the opening statement of this post is true in that the Fan probably doesn't know what he is talking about.
No doubt the feeling comes from watching Sanchez pitch game after game where he has 80+ pitches notched by the fourth inning. Sanchez averaged 5.818 innings per start (yes, the Fan did throw out his one relief appearance). Or perhaps it is the fact that only 46.8% of his pitches are actually in the strike zone. He is often fortunate that anyone ever swings at one of his pitches. The figure, by the way, was the lowest of his career. His first pitch strike percentage was also the lowest of his career. There is no doubt that some of his success was due to the fact that more batters facing Sanchez swung at more pitches out of the strike zone than ever before. That's called O-Swing Percentage for those who need to know. So he threw less pitches in the strike zone, he threw less first pitch strikes and yet more batters swung at pitches outside the strike zone.
But what about the quality of his opponents? Giving you a full rundown of his game log for 2010 would stretch your patience. Besides, you can do that yourself at baseball-reference.com. Let's just do a summary:
Great games: April (2) Pittsburgh, San Diego. Not very good offenses. May (1) San Diego ibid. June (1) Orioles before they became the fighting Showalters. July (1) Mets. August (3) Colorado at Colorado. Okay, that's impressive; Phillies. Impressive again but the Phillies were struggling at the time. Colorado at home. September (2) Dodgers twice. Torre's team was dead in the water by September.
Good games: April (1) Phillies. But that is a stretch as he gave up 9 base runners in five innings covering 106 pitches. May (3) Mets, Oakland, Arizona. 19 innings, 4 homers, 329 pitches, 9 walks, but only 7 earned runs. June (1) Pittsburgh. July (1) Brewers. 6 innings, 11 base runners but only one run. August (0). September (1) Arizona.
So-So games: April (1) Phillies. Five innings, nine base runners, 107 pitches. May (1) San Diego. 4 runs on 7 hits, no walks. June (1) Cincinnati. Five innings, ten base runners, 3 runs. July (1) Arizona. Five innings, one run, 109 pitches, 10 base runners. August (1) Padres in a loss. Five plus innings. September (2) Cubs, Padres.
Bad games: April (1) Braves. May (1) Rockies. June (3) Red Sox, Dodgers, Blue Jays. July (2) Nationals, Marlins. August (2) Braves, Reds. September (0).
If the Fan is looking at all that right, then the only quality offenses Sanchez had either a great or good outing against was the Rockies twice and the Phillies twice. So, in conclusion, Sanchez's statistics are somewhat misleading. He doesn't fare well against good offenses as the post season is clearly showing us. A conclusion which many of you will probably confirm that the opening statement of this post is true in that the Fan probably doesn't know what he is talking about.
Will David Ortiz Get an Extension?
Let's start this post with the obvious: We were all wrong about David Ortiz last year. And the chief, top of the list writer wrong about Ortiz was this writer. The Fan buried him early last year, but at least the Fan wasn't the only one. According to this article, David Ortiz wants an extension and would not be happy with the Red Sox simply picking up his $12 million option for 2011. His reasoning is all the negativity he received last year and the year before (guilty!) and in Ortiz's mind, a multi-year deal would allow Ortiz to just play and have fun and not worry about it. There is no doubt of Ortiz's sincerity. But Mr. Ortiz is simply not dealing in reality.
First of all, David Ortiz DID have a great year last year. His 899 OPS+ and all those homers and RBIs added up to a 137 OPS+. But even saying that, his WAR or Wins Above Replacement came in at 3.3 which is just about perfectly dead on for the $13 million he was earning. That's the good news. The bad news is that it was the first time in the last three years that he came close to earning his salary. The Red Sox could use his bat and if he can come close to his production of a year ago, he would be worth the $12 million option. But, why in the world would the Red Sox do anything other than pick up the option?
Ortiz is going to be 35 next year. He is not an athletic 35. He is a big-bodied, tall son-of-a-gun that needs a lot to go right to catch up to a major league pitch. With each year that passes, he will be less and less able to do that. His peak years physically and statistically are behind him (not going down the PED conversation here). The Red Sox are taking a gamble by simply picking up his option. They would be playing Russian Roulette with five bullets in their gun if they signed him to a multi-year deal.
And what about Ortiz's contention about the extension taking care of the negativity? What exactly does he mean by that? Does he mean that by signing a multi-year contract that he will be all set for the rest of his baseball life and can point to his posterior if someone complains about his production? The Fan can buy that. Does he mean that by signing a multi-year deal, the negativity will go away? Preposterous. It would get worse. The "Red Sox Nation" (shiver) is a pretty smart fan base. If Papi is known to have been given the silver platter and doesn't produce, he will get roasted. And it won't be just the fans. It will be the same talk radio, newspapers, blogs and sports networks that filled him with all that negativity in the first place.
The Red Sox have only two choices here. Either pick up Ortiz's option and tell him to earn more time or don't pick up the option at all. They can't worry about how Ortiz will react to the former choice because if they do, then they should just choose the latter. If they don't pick up the option, they can sign John Buck and let Victor Martinez handle the DH. If they pick up the option, then they have to hope Ortiz hits like 2010 and not like 2008 and 2009. But those are the only sane options. The third option of giving Ortiz a multi-year deal is just not rational and not in the Red Sox best interest. And it is hard to imagine where this writer sits that the Red Sox would not do what's in their best interest.
Apologies, Mr. Ortiz about last year. But no apologies for feeling your current sentiments are all wet.
First of all, David Ortiz DID have a great year last year. His 899 OPS+ and all those homers and RBIs added up to a 137 OPS+. But even saying that, his WAR or Wins Above Replacement came in at 3.3 which is just about perfectly dead on for the $13 million he was earning. That's the good news. The bad news is that it was the first time in the last three years that he came close to earning his salary. The Red Sox could use his bat and if he can come close to his production of a year ago, he would be worth the $12 million option. But, why in the world would the Red Sox do anything other than pick up the option?
Ortiz is going to be 35 next year. He is not an athletic 35. He is a big-bodied, tall son-of-a-gun that needs a lot to go right to catch up to a major league pitch. With each year that passes, he will be less and less able to do that. His peak years physically and statistically are behind him (not going down the PED conversation here). The Red Sox are taking a gamble by simply picking up his option. They would be playing Russian Roulette with five bullets in their gun if they signed him to a multi-year deal.
And what about Ortiz's contention about the extension taking care of the negativity? What exactly does he mean by that? Does he mean that by signing a multi-year contract that he will be all set for the rest of his baseball life and can point to his posterior if someone complains about his production? The Fan can buy that. Does he mean that by signing a multi-year deal, the negativity will go away? Preposterous. It would get worse. The "Red Sox Nation" (shiver) is a pretty smart fan base. If Papi is known to have been given the silver platter and doesn't produce, he will get roasted. And it won't be just the fans. It will be the same talk radio, newspapers, blogs and sports networks that filled him with all that negativity in the first place.
The Red Sox have only two choices here. Either pick up Ortiz's option and tell him to earn more time or don't pick up the option at all. They can't worry about how Ortiz will react to the former choice because if they do, then they should just choose the latter. If they don't pick up the option, they can sign John Buck and let Victor Martinez handle the DH. If they pick up the option, then they have to hope Ortiz hits like 2010 and not like 2008 and 2009. But those are the only sane options. The third option of giving Ortiz a multi-year deal is just not rational and not in the Red Sox best interest. And it is hard to imagine where this writer sits that the Red Sox would not do what's in their best interest.
Apologies, Mr. Ortiz about last year. But no apologies for feeling your current sentiments are all wet.
Game Picks - Saturday: October 30, 2010
The World Series heads to Texas with the Rangers down two games to zip. The game is a rare early one for the post season which means it won't get over until after 10:00 P.M. Eastern Time (thanks Bud for everything <--said with an eyeroll). The Fan has been perfect so far in the World Series and hasn't gotten a pick wrong since the last game of the Rangers - Yankees series. So there is a lot of pressure in this one. For the first time, the Giants will have to contend with being the away team. But they get Sandoval as the DH, which is kind of nifty for them. They get another bat, and a good one at that. But also, for the first time, the Giants won't get a left-hander as the starting pitcher either. So what's the Fan's pick?
- The Rangers over the Giants: The Rangers are too good a team to get swept. Colby Lewis has been the Rangers' best pitcher in the post season not named Lee. Lewis gets the ball to Oliver in the eighth and then, amazingly, Feliz will actually pitch in this World Series.
Month: 42-33
Season: 1369-1048
- The Rangers over the Giants: The Rangers are too good a team to get swept. Colby Lewis has been the Rangers' best pitcher in the post season not named Lee. Lewis gets the ball to Oliver in the eighth and then, amazingly, Feliz will actually pitch in this World Series.
Month: 42-33
Season: 1369-1048
Friday, October 29, 2010
Cardinals Stay the Course
The St. Louis Cardinals seemed like a pile of goo at the end of the 2010 season. Their long-time manager, Tony LaRussa was given 50/50 odds of taking his shtick elsewhere. There was the Colby Rasmus flap and the Pujols/Right-wing rally flap and the entire thing seemed to be muddled up into a mess. Of course, none of that would have mattered if the Cardinals had played better. But they went 28-30 down the stretch while Carpenter and Wainwright suddenly looked human. They swept the Reds to obtain first place and then tanked to allow the Reds to take the division. After all that, LaRussa seemed fed up. Conditions seemed ripe to have an event like the Denver Broncos did after a similar season under Mike Shanahan, the LaRussa of football. But here we are in October and guess what? Nothing has changed.
Tony LaRussa will be back in the dugout. Dave Duncan signed on for another two years as pitching coach. Mark McGwire signed back on for two years as batting coach. The core of Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter and Wainwright are still in place and life as we know it will roll along under the big arch. The Fan doesn't know about you, but this writer is very surprised.
There is always a couple of ways to look at things. One way to view things is that LaRussa and the gang still feel like they have the horses to compete and 2010 was just an anomaly. They very well could be right. They could feel that they are in a competitive division that doesn't have any team that looks dominant, and again they would be right. With 2011 being Pujols last year before free agency, perhaps they want one last chance as a group to see how they can do. That would make sense too. And if very well could be possible that the Cardinals brain trust didn't see anything better on the horizon than the management team they already had in place. You can't argue with that either.
But this team does need to be tweaked a bit. The Skip Schumaker experiment at second should end. Schumaker is a fun little player and should be a sort of super sub like Valverde or something. But his defense hurts and his offense didn't offset it in 2010. The Colby Rasmus thing doesn't seem tenable, does it? How about trading him to the Diamondbacks for Stephen Drew? The Cardinals could use a top notch shortstop and it always seems like Drew needs a fresh perspective. Brendan Ryan is a great fielder, but his 57 OPS+ is unacceptable. Perhaps he would get better, but Drew is as good a fielder and a much better offensive player.
The Cardinals seem set with the rest of their line up. Freese will be back to play third. Pujols, Holliday and Molina are locks. The Cardinals will have to decide who is their third outfielder (if Rasmus stays). They could use a better back up catcher too, but there are a lot of those out there. For the Cardinals, much will come down to pitching.
The rotation seems rock solid again on paper at least 1-3. The Carpenter/Wainwright struggles down the stretch are troubling, Carpenter the more so as he is no spring chicken. But Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in baseball and you have to assume that he will be fine. Garcia had a wonderful debut season and should continue to get better. The Cardinals will have to rebuild the four and five holes in the rotation again.
The bullpen was decent, but not spectacular. McClellen had a great year, but nobody else helps you sleep better at night. One more quality arm in the bullpen would help.
This Fan is truly surprised that the core management team of the Cardinals is intact. The Fan really believed that the sour taste of last season would either cause LaRussa to walk or for the Cardinals to go in a different direction. But the team decided to stay the course. And that doesn't feel like a bad decision. This management team is among the top five in baseball, has a history of success and there is no reason to believe they can't turn a down season around in 2011. Sometimes change is good and sometimes continuity is good. Only time will tell us which one this situation should have been.
Tony LaRussa will be back in the dugout. Dave Duncan signed on for another two years as pitching coach. Mark McGwire signed back on for two years as batting coach. The core of Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter and Wainwright are still in place and life as we know it will roll along under the big arch. The Fan doesn't know about you, but this writer is very surprised.
There is always a couple of ways to look at things. One way to view things is that LaRussa and the gang still feel like they have the horses to compete and 2010 was just an anomaly. They very well could be right. They could feel that they are in a competitive division that doesn't have any team that looks dominant, and again they would be right. With 2011 being Pujols last year before free agency, perhaps they want one last chance as a group to see how they can do. That would make sense too. And if very well could be possible that the Cardinals brain trust didn't see anything better on the horizon than the management team they already had in place. You can't argue with that either.
But this team does need to be tweaked a bit. The Skip Schumaker experiment at second should end. Schumaker is a fun little player and should be a sort of super sub like Valverde or something. But his defense hurts and his offense didn't offset it in 2010. The Colby Rasmus thing doesn't seem tenable, does it? How about trading him to the Diamondbacks for Stephen Drew? The Cardinals could use a top notch shortstop and it always seems like Drew needs a fresh perspective. Brendan Ryan is a great fielder, but his 57 OPS+ is unacceptable. Perhaps he would get better, but Drew is as good a fielder and a much better offensive player.
The Cardinals seem set with the rest of their line up. Freese will be back to play third. Pujols, Holliday and Molina are locks. The Cardinals will have to decide who is their third outfielder (if Rasmus stays). They could use a better back up catcher too, but there are a lot of those out there. For the Cardinals, much will come down to pitching.
The rotation seems rock solid again on paper at least 1-3. The Carpenter/Wainwright struggles down the stretch are troubling, Carpenter the more so as he is no spring chicken. But Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in baseball and you have to assume that he will be fine. Garcia had a wonderful debut season and should continue to get better. The Cardinals will have to rebuild the four and five holes in the rotation again.
The bullpen was decent, but not spectacular. McClellen had a great year, but nobody else helps you sleep better at night. One more quality arm in the bullpen would help.
This Fan is truly surprised that the core management team of the Cardinals is intact. The Fan really believed that the sour taste of last season would either cause LaRussa to walk or for the Cardinals to go in a different direction. But the team decided to stay the course. And that doesn't feel like a bad decision. This management team is among the top five in baseball, has a history of success and there is no reason to believe they can't turn a down season around in 2011. Sometimes change is good and sometimes continuity is good. Only time will tell us which one this situation should have been.
Chapman and Feliz - What's Their Future?
Aroldis Chapman and Neftali Feliz seem so similar in promise. Both are 22 years old. Both throw rockets, both were signed with the expectation that they would be top of the rotation starters. But now, Feliz is the closer for the Rangers and Chapman was lightning out of the bullpen down the homestretch for the Reds. Dusty Baker, when asked about his plans for Chapman next year, hemmed and hawed and finally mumbled something about the Cuban Missle Crisis being a back end of the bullpen guy. For both pitchers. the bullpen seems like a waste of their talent.
A large part of the Rangers' success this season was handing the ball off to Feliz in the ninth iinning. The Fan gets that. But closers can be had in baseball and as Feliz proves himself, they can be created. Feliz started in 53 of his 79 minor league appearances and his 3.03 ERA with 0.2 HR/9 and 10.6 K/9 seem to show a guy that can handled that kind of thing. It isn't like he is Joba Chamberlain or something. Chapman has even more electric stuff than Feliz (if that is possible) and the Reds started him in the minors as a starter and then moved him to the bullpen to get him ready for his call up.
C. J. Wilson knows a thing or two about converting from a reliever to a starter. There is no reason he couldn't help Feliz transition back as a starter. Even if the Rangers don't have Lee next year, consider a rotation of Wilson, Hunter, Lewis and Feliz? That's good stuff right there. Dusty Baker made it sound like he already had enough starters? He does? Can you count on Leake? Homer Bailey? Volquez and Cueto are always wild cards. It seems doubtful that Harang and Arroyo will back. So...the Reds have enough starters?
Feliz and Chapman are phenomenal talents. Don't you owe it to that talent, your team and your fans to at least give them a shot at becoming ace starters they both seem capable of being? Heck, if it doesn't work out, they can always go back out to the bullpen. But in this observer's mind, talent like that deserves a shot at becoming the true studs they both appear to be.
A large part of the Rangers' success this season was handing the ball off to Feliz in the ninth iinning. The Fan gets that. But closers can be had in baseball and as Feliz proves himself, they can be created. Feliz started in 53 of his 79 minor league appearances and his 3.03 ERA with 0.2 HR/9 and 10.6 K/9 seem to show a guy that can handled that kind of thing. It isn't like he is Joba Chamberlain or something. Chapman has even more electric stuff than Feliz (if that is possible) and the Reds started him in the minors as a starter and then moved him to the bullpen to get him ready for his call up.
C. J. Wilson knows a thing or two about converting from a reliever to a starter. There is no reason he couldn't help Feliz transition back as a starter. Even if the Rangers don't have Lee next year, consider a rotation of Wilson, Hunter, Lewis and Feliz? That's good stuff right there. Dusty Baker made it sound like he already had enough starters? He does? Can you count on Leake? Homer Bailey? Volquez and Cueto are always wild cards. It seems doubtful that Harang and Arroyo will back. So...the Reds have enough starters?
Feliz and Chapman are phenomenal talents. Don't you owe it to that talent, your team and your fans to at least give them a shot at becoming ace starters they both seem capable of being? Heck, if it doesn't work out, they can always go back out to the bullpen. But in this observer's mind, talent like that deserves a shot at becoming the true studs they both appear to be.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
The Case Against Signing Cliff Lee
It is easy to pick on Cliff Lee after he was toasted by the San Francisco Giants yesterday. That hardly seems fair. But regardless of how the rest of the post season goes, Cliff Lee is going to be a big time free agent once the World Series is over. Lee seems to have nice leverage after three dominant seasons and (besides yesterday), great post season heroics. But will it be a good idea for any team to give Cliff Lee what he will be asking for in his free agent negotiations? This observer thinks not.
First of all, Cliff Lee is going to want a Sabathia-like deal and who could blame him. This is Lee's first real crack at free agency and he's going to shoot for the moon. Why else would Lee and his agent react so swiftly to the story that Lee's wife was abused by Yankee fans? Lee and his agent need the Yankees to drive up the price to ensure that Lee gets the best deal possible. The Rangers want to resign him and if their "lifestyle points" don't equal the money he can make elsewhere, it won't cut it. The Rangers will have to come close to matching Lee's market value to keep him.
Let's say that Cliff Lee will command $20 million a year for four years. That seems conservative in light of the Santana and Sabathia deals. But let's use $20 million. Lee would probably earn that in the first two years of his contract. Or at least he would come close to that kind of performance. But if you place any value in PECOTA projections, here is their projections for Lee for the next four years:
That does not look like a good value projection based on a contract that pays Lee $20 million a year for the next four years. Cliff Lee will be 33 next year. A four year contract will take him to age 37. When considering signing such a pitcher, the Fan's mind drifts back to Pedro Martinez. Martinez was dominant right up to his 35th year. At age 33, he posted a WAR of 4.8. The following year, he was even better and his WAR went up to 5.4. But Martinez never topped 1.0 again in his career after that. That is the real problem with signing Lee long term at this point in his career. Lee relies on pinpoint control of his fastball and cutter. His curve is great at times, but really, he relies on the accuracy of his fastballs. He has been throwing 91-92 most of the year. Will he be as effective when that drops in the next couple of years to 87-88?
The Fan has already built a case on why Lee would probably not be worth his salary for the next few years, even at face value. But then add to that the loss of draft picks in compensation for signing him as a Type A free agent and the whole thing sours in this Fan's mouth. The Yankees and other bidders should think long and hard about signing Lee (who has a history of back troubles by the way) to a four year, big bucks contract. The Rangers would be better served letting the Yankees or others overbid for Lee's services.
Cliff Lee has been a stud for the last three years. But let Pedro Martinez stick in your memory bank as just one example of why giving big bucks to an aging pitcher isn't a good idea...no matter how many times he's beaten you in the post season.
First of all, Cliff Lee is going to want a Sabathia-like deal and who could blame him. This is Lee's first real crack at free agency and he's going to shoot for the moon. Why else would Lee and his agent react so swiftly to the story that Lee's wife was abused by Yankee fans? Lee and his agent need the Yankees to drive up the price to ensure that Lee gets the best deal possible. The Rangers want to resign him and if their "lifestyle points" don't equal the money he can make elsewhere, it won't cut it. The Rangers will have to come close to matching Lee's market value to keep him.
Let's say that Cliff Lee will command $20 million a year for four years. That seems conservative in light of the Santana and Sabathia deals. But let's use $20 million. Lee would probably earn that in the first two years of his contract. Or at least he would come close to that kind of performance. But if you place any value in PECOTA projections, here is their projections for Lee for the next four years:
- 2011 - $15.3 million
- 2012 - $13.1 million
- 2013 - $12.2 million
- 2014 - $11.6 million
That does not look like a good value projection based on a contract that pays Lee $20 million a year for the next four years. Cliff Lee will be 33 next year. A four year contract will take him to age 37. When considering signing such a pitcher, the Fan's mind drifts back to Pedro Martinez. Martinez was dominant right up to his 35th year. At age 33, he posted a WAR of 4.8. The following year, he was even better and his WAR went up to 5.4. But Martinez never topped 1.0 again in his career after that. That is the real problem with signing Lee long term at this point in his career. Lee relies on pinpoint control of his fastball and cutter. His curve is great at times, but really, he relies on the accuracy of his fastballs. He has been throwing 91-92 most of the year. Will he be as effective when that drops in the next couple of years to 87-88?
The Fan has already built a case on why Lee would probably not be worth his salary for the next few years, even at face value. But then add to that the loss of draft picks in compensation for signing him as a Type A free agent and the whole thing sours in this Fan's mouth. The Yankees and other bidders should think long and hard about signing Lee (who has a history of back troubles by the way) to a four year, big bucks contract. The Rangers would be better served letting the Yankees or others overbid for Lee's services.
Cliff Lee has been a stud for the last three years. But let Pedro Martinez stick in your memory bank as just one example of why giving big bucks to an aging pitcher isn't a good idea...no matter how many times he's beaten you in the post season.
Game Picks - Thursday: October 28, 2010
At first blush, this picker can feel like a genius picking the Giants to win yesterday. But never in this Fan's wildest dreams did the Fan ever expect the Giants to win the way they did. So...the pick was right, but the way it was won wasn't predictable. Now we go to Game Two and little has changed for the Giants. But the Rangers are still going to stick Vlad out in right field. They are putting another lefty starter out on the mound and dare the Fan say that lightning could strike twice?
- The Giants over the Rangers: Yeah, let's say lightning will strike twice. The Giants will win behind Matt Cain and that bullpen.
Yesterday: 1-0
Month: 41-33
Season: 1368-1048
- The Giants over the Rangers: Yeah, let's say lightning will strike twice. The Giants will win behind Matt Cain and that bullpen.
Yesterday: 1-0
Month: 41-33
Season: 1368-1048
Giants Strike First
The light-hitting Giants did something that the Yankees and the Bay Rays this year and the Dodgers and the Yankees last year couldn't do. They took it to Cliff Lee and built an 8-2 lead before holding on to win the game 11-7. The hitting stars were Freddie Sanchez, Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross and Juan Uribe, who hit another amazing homer, this time a three-run job.
The Fan remembers thinking after Cliff Lee hit a double to help the Rangers mount a 2-0 lead that those Rangers, including Lee at second base, were feeling their oats a bit too strongly. With Lee on the mound and getting extra base hits, the Rangers thought that everything was going according to plan. But these Giants weren't buying it. They uncharacteristically got Lee into a high pitch count early (78 pitches by the fourth inning) and then pounced on him. By the time that Ron Washington came out and got Lee, the Rangers had scored three times and would get three more by the first batter that Darren O'Day faced in relief. That was the Uribe blast.
Gone is Lee's amazing run. Gone is his lofty post season ERA. Gone was the Rangers' swagger. But the Rangers showed their resolve and kept fighting. They knocked Lincecum out in the sixth and then scored three more times on the Giants' relievers. But here is where the Fan is puzzled.
The Rangers have a great offense right? They were down 8-4 and then Washington brings in two completely untested relievers. Mark Lowe wasn't even on the ALCS roster and who the heck is Michael Kirkman? Those-less-than-the-Rangers'-best relievers gave up three more runs to allow the Giants a gigantic amount of breathing room. Puzzling.
The Rangers defense also didn't help. Both players on the left side of the infield made errors and later in the game, Ian Kinsler again had a base running adventure and got himself thrown out at second after getting an infield single. And there was a lot of speculation about Vlad playing the outfield and sure enough, his presence out there was felt as he made two errors again helping the Giants' cause.
And so the Giants strike first. But then again, so did the Yankees in their series. But it wasn't against Cliff Lee. The Rangers are in a hole and these Giants that very few people believe in, are in the driver's seat...for now.
The Fan remembers thinking after Cliff Lee hit a double to help the Rangers mount a 2-0 lead that those Rangers, including Lee at second base, were feeling their oats a bit too strongly. With Lee on the mound and getting extra base hits, the Rangers thought that everything was going according to plan. But these Giants weren't buying it. They uncharacteristically got Lee into a high pitch count early (78 pitches by the fourth inning) and then pounced on him. By the time that Ron Washington came out and got Lee, the Rangers had scored three times and would get three more by the first batter that Darren O'Day faced in relief. That was the Uribe blast.
Gone is Lee's amazing run. Gone is his lofty post season ERA. Gone was the Rangers' swagger. But the Rangers showed their resolve and kept fighting. They knocked Lincecum out in the sixth and then scored three more times on the Giants' relievers. But here is where the Fan is puzzled.
The Rangers have a great offense right? They were down 8-4 and then Washington brings in two completely untested relievers. Mark Lowe wasn't even on the ALCS roster and who the heck is Michael Kirkman? Those-less-than-the-Rangers'-best relievers gave up three more runs to allow the Giants a gigantic amount of breathing room. Puzzling.
The Rangers defense also didn't help. Both players on the left side of the infield made errors and later in the game, Ian Kinsler again had a base running adventure and got himself thrown out at second after getting an infield single. And there was a lot of speculation about Vlad playing the outfield and sure enough, his presence out there was felt as he made two errors again helping the Giants' cause.
And so the Giants strike first. But then again, so did the Yankees in their series. But it wasn't against Cliff Lee. The Rangers are in a hole and these Giants that very few people believe in, are in the driver's seat...for now.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Finally! The Mets Have a GM
According to reports (including this one), the Mets have finally settled on Sandy Alderson as their new general manager. Alderson was interviewed at least three times and was a finalist along with Josh Byrnes, late of the Diamondbacks. The Mets couldn't begin seeking a new manager until the GM question was solved so now that managers are starting to fall into place, the Mets will have to scramble to get a decent hire. The move seems to be in contrast with the industry trend of hiring young hot shots. Teams like the Blue Jays and others have followed the former lead of teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians and others in hiring young talent at the GM position. Alderson is 62 and the label you hear is, "old school."
Alderson has a proven record though. He was with Oakland in the late 80s when that team won a World Series and were a strong presence in the league. Of course, those teams have been denigrated because of the steroid accusations that have plagued that era and that team. Alderson worked for Bud Selig and MLB for a while and was in charge of umpires and other things like growing baseball internationally. Alderson is a CEO type of GM, his Dartmouth pedigree personifies that type of feeling here. But what will Alderson mean for the Mets?
The Fan's first thoughts are that he can't do worse than the last regime, right? The second is that Alderson, by his experience, age and presence, will help keep Wilpon from trying to stir the pot. This is much like the McPhail hiring in Baltimore that has finally gotten that owner to settle down and let baseball men run the show. If that is one of the results for the Mets, great. That needed to happen. Plus, for Alderson to have friends in high places in the MLB hierarchy can't be that bad a deal for the Mets either.
Now the question becomes who will Alderson get for his manager? There is good news there as well. It was Alderson who brought Tony LaRussa to the Oakland A's during his tenure there. That was a brilliant choice. And before he left the Padres with the Moorad purchase, Alderson was part of the decision making team that brought Bud Black to the Padres as that team's manager. That's a pretty darned good track record.
After thinking about all these things, Alderson seems perfect for where the Mets are right now. Frankly, they have become a mess. They have become the butts of jokes from Letterman to their own fans. Alderson gives the team proven leadership and a winning track record. Plus he brings the Mets enough presence to keep Wilpon away from the pot. All that's left is to make the official announcement. That won't come until Friday during the World Series off day (the Mets don't want to pull an A-Rod). This is good news, Mets' fans.
Alderson has a proven record though. He was with Oakland in the late 80s when that team won a World Series and were a strong presence in the league. Of course, those teams have been denigrated because of the steroid accusations that have plagued that era and that team. Alderson worked for Bud Selig and MLB for a while and was in charge of umpires and other things like growing baseball internationally. Alderson is a CEO type of GM, his Dartmouth pedigree personifies that type of feeling here. But what will Alderson mean for the Mets?
The Fan's first thoughts are that he can't do worse than the last regime, right? The second is that Alderson, by his experience, age and presence, will help keep Wilpon from trying to stir the pot. This is much like the McPhail hiring in Baltimore that has finally gotten that owner to settle down and let baseball men run the show. If that is one of the results for the Mets, great. That needed to happen. Plus, for Alderson to have friends in high places in the MLB hierarchy can't be that bad a deal for the Mets either.
Now the question becomes who will Alderson get for his manager? There is good news there as well. It was Alderson who brought Tony LaRussa to the Oakland A's during his tenure there. That was a brilliant choice. And before he left the Padres with the Moorad purchase, Alderson was part of the decision making team that brought Bud Black to the Padres as that team's manager. That's a pretty darned good track record.
After thinking about all these things, Alderson seems perfect for where the Mets are right now. Frankly, they have become a mess. They have become the butts of jokes from Letterman to their own fans. Alderson gives the team proven leadership and a winning track record. Plus he brings the Mets enough presence to keep Wilpon away from the pot. All that's left is to make the official announcement. That won't come until Friday during the World Series off day (the Mets don't want to pull an A-Rod). This is good news, Mets' fans.
Game Picks - Wednesday: October 27, 2010
The fascinating World Series between the Texas Rangers and the San Franciso Giants begins today with the marque match up of Lincecum versus Lee. The series starts in San Francisco since the National League won the All Star Game. Any logical way of looking at this series favors the Rangers. They have the better offense, they have just as good a starting staff as the Giants, a slightly better defense (except for Vlad having to play the field) and are just short in the bullpen compared to the Giants. But those things are meaningless in a seven game series where anything can happen.
Tim Lincecum was actually better on the road this year than he was at home. Cliff Lee over his entire career has fared better at home than on the road. The Rangers won 90 games this season and the Giants 92. Since the series began back in the dawn of the 20th Century, the team with the worse record in the World Series has won the series 52 out of 101 attempts (three times both teams had the same record). In three games pitched against the Giants in his career, Cliff Lee has given up a slash line of: 159/.193/.256. But in the end, none of that will matter. It will all come down to who gets the hit in the right spot or who gets the break they need when they need it. Let's all hope that the games won't hinge on a bad umpire call.
But the Fan has to pick a winner for Game One...
- The Giants over the Rangers: Lincecum cancels out Lee and the Giants' bullpen wins the game. Josh Hamilton is hampered by the incredible dimensions in San Francisco.
Month: 40-33
Season: 1367-1048
Tim Lincecum was actually better on the road this year than he was at home. Cliff Lee over his entire career has fared better at home than on the road. The Rangers won 90 games this season and the Giants 92. Since the series began back in the dawn of the 20th Century, the team with the worse record in the World Series has won the series 52 out of 101 attempts (three times both teams had the same record). In three games pitched against the Giants in his career, Cliff Lee has given up a slash line of: 159/.193/.256. But in the end, none of that will matter. It will all come down to who gets the hit in the right spot or who gets the break they need when they need it. Let's all hope that the games won't hinge on a bad umpire call.
But the Fan has to pick a winner for Game One...
- The Giants over the Rangers: Lincecum cancels out Lee and the Giants' bullpen wins the game. Josh Hamilton is hampered by the incredible dimensions in San Francisco.
Month: 40-33
Season: 1367-1048
Nationals Miss Managerial Boat
Jim Riggleman is probably a heck of a guy. But the Nationals decision to retain him as their manager feels like settling for a Wal-mart brand cola instead of grabbing a Coca-cola. Yes, the Nationals improved ten games from the previous season in 2010. They won 69 games instead of 59 the two seasons before. But from this observer's mind, those ten victories came in the beginning of the year when the Nationals got off to a good start. On Memorial Day, the team was 23-23. They went 43-67 the rest of the way. The Nationals' record starting the first of June led to a .390 winning percentage over that span. That doesn't sound like progress in that light.
According to the Nationals' run differential, they should have won three more games than they did (called the Pythagorean win-loss percentage as developed by Bill James). The team's defense did not improve. Nyger Morgan was not corralled and got too many at bats besides based on his abysmal offensive performance. The Fan hates to be a bummer, but there just wasn't anything positive about Riggleman's results.
The Nationals were 5-13 in interleague play. They were 3-10 in extra inning games and 20-28 in one-run games. Surely a manager should be able to figure out how to win a few more of those games. There is a fine line between blaming the talent and at least getting the most out of your limited talent and this Fan doesn't see that line in balance for this equation.
Let's talk about one other situation that seemed to put a burr in this writer's saddle. If your team really isn't going anywhere, is there any reason to burn up a pitcher? It's one thing for Joe Torre to burn up his horses when he was fighting for a pennant--and the Fan isn't even sure that it's justifiable in that situation--but it's another to burn out a pitcher when there is really nothing on the line. Tyler Clippard is a fine young talent. Riggleman threw Clippard out there 78 times to the tune of 91 innings, a 50% increase in Clippard's innings from the year before. Clippard's stats don't indicate that he wore down as his peripherals were actually better in the second half than in the first. But time will tell if Clippard was overused and how his body responds to it.
In this writer's mind, a manager in Riggleman's position needs to be protecting his young talent. He is supposed to be a nurturer and a care taker for the talent of the future. But Riggleman doesn't seem to fit that mold somehow. The Nationals had the chance to make a bold statement and hire somebody like Bobby Valentine or another manager with proven results to take this team to the next level. Instead, they have settled for status quo by believing that going from bloody awful to just plain awful is progress. It's not and it wasn't.
According to the Nationals' run differential, they should have won three more games than they did (called the Pythagorean win-loss percentage as developed by Bill James). The team's defense did not improve. Nyger Morgan was not corralled and got too many at bats besides based on his abysmal offensive performance. The Fan hates to be a bummer, but there just wasn't anything positive about Riggleman's results.
The Nationals were 5-13 in interleague play. They were 3-10 in extra inning games and 20-28 in one-run games. Surely a manager should be able to figure out how to win a few more of those games. There is a fine line between blaming the talent and at least getting the most out of your limited talent and this Fan doesn't see that line in balance for this equation.
Let's talk about one other situation that seemed to put a burr in this writer's saddle. If your team really isn't going anywhere, is there any reason to burn up a pitcher? It's one thing for Joe Torre to burn up his horses when he was fighting for a pennant--and the Fan isn't even sure that it's justifiable in that situation--but it's another to burn out a pitcher when there is really nothing on the line. Tyler Clippard is a fine young talent. Riggleman threw Clippard out there 78 times to the tune of 91 innings, a 50% increase in Clippard's innings from the year before. Clippard's stats don't indicate that he wore down as his peripherals were actually better in the second half than in the first. But time will tell if Clippard was overused and how his body responds to it.
In this writer's mind, a manager in Riggleman's position needs to be protecting his young talent. He is supposed to be a nurturer and a care taker for the talent of the future. But Riggleman doesn't seem to fit that mold somehow. The Nationals had the chance to make a bold statement and hire somebody like Bobby Valentine or another manager with proven results to take this team to the next level. Instead, they have settled for status quo by believing that going from bloody awful to just plain awful is progress. It's not and it wasn't.
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