The Flagrant Fan site turns ten years old

Heh. I can't even get an anniversary right. For weeks now, I have been planning a big birthday celebration as this site hits the ten year old mark. Going back to my very first posts here, I could have sworn the date was March 6, 2003. But I actually wrote my first post on March 5, 2003. So perhaps if I write this in the evening, both bases will be covered. Anyway, the main point here is that I've been plugging away here for a decade now.

When this site started, it took me months just to figure out how to put headings on the posts. So the first hundred or so went without headings. How's that for flying solo while sitting backwards in the pilot seat?

I also remember that I was pretty much doing things for myself with the hope that a few lost souls might find their way here. For years, a good month was a hundred page hits. But that was okay. A few cool people became early readers. Navin Vaswani was an early follower. That was cool.

That first year, I wrote something like 241 posts from March to December. Things got a bit sketchy for a few years after that. I don't remember why I put it up for a while. I wish I hadn't. But it is what it is. Perhaps it was because I had a wonderful job and was making big money. Who knows. But in 2008, that big job went away and I found myself unemployed for four years. My writing sort of became an obsession.

I wrote 639 posts in 2009, 761 in 2010 and 695 in 2011. I slacked off in 2012 to 499. And if you are at least a little familiar with the site, I do not write little ditties (about Jack and Diane). While I am not a Joe Posnanski, I tend to write longer posts. So that is a lot of writing.

I am employed again and writing has become a challenge. But when I write it, they will come. Where 100 page hits in a month was a good month, the site often reaches 100 hits in an hour. That is very gratifying. The commitment has somewhat paid off as I also write now for It's About the Money, Stupid, MLB Dirt and for the e-magazine, Big Leagues Magazine.

The commitment also led me to the Baseball Bloggers Association. I am honored and grateful to be the current president of the General Chapter of that organization. I am also up to 935 followers on Twitter. How the heck did that happen?

All this is because of two things. First, baseball has been (along with the Beatles), one of the underpinning story lines of my life. Through the good times and the bad times, there has always been baseball. Secondly, God blessed me with the ability to write and I enjoy it. Perhaps using that God-given gift to write about something trivial like baseball is a frittering away of that gift. It might seem that way.

But writing transcends baseball when done so regularly. Even baseball writers touch on common life themes and can make a difference in people's lives. I am a high road kind of guy. I believe in forgiveness and in treating people well. Reaching a wide audience regularly with those beliefs girding the writing perhaps rubs off here and there. If so, great. If not, as long as you enjoy the baseball stuff, it's all good.

So much has changed in ten years! Consider that when this blog was born:

• Derek Jeter had accumulated 1,200 hits.
• Jim Thome had 334 homers.
• Roy Halladay had a record of 37-24 in his big league career.
• Barry Bonds had accumulated 613 homers.
• C.C. Sabathia had not yet made an All Star team and had only accumulated 5.7 rWAR.
• The Tampa team was still the Devil Rays and they were three months away from picking Delmon Young with the first pick of the 2003 draft. 
• It has just been nine months before that the Pirates thought that Bryan Bullington was a better pick than Zack Greinke and drafted Bullington first in the 2002 draft.
• The Red Sox had yet to win a World Series since 1918.
• Albert Pujols had 71 homers for his career and no MVP Awards.
• Mariano Rivera had 243 saves.
• Jamie Moyer was still a Seattle Mariner and was only 39 years old. He would go on to win 105 more games!
• Ichiro Suzuki only had 450 hits.
• Alfonso Soriano had yet to play for any team but the Yankees and the word, "albatross," was not attached to his name.
• Jake Peavy had just completed his rookie season for the Padres and had been terrible.
• Alex Rodriguez was still a shortstop.
• Chipper Jones was a left fielder
• Carlos Beltran was still a Kansas City Royal.
• The Twins still played at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome and were division champs. A.J. Pierzynski was still their catcher.
• Eddie Murray, Gary Carter, Paul Molitor, Wade Boggs, Dennis Eckersley and Ryne Sandberg were not yet members of the Hall of Fame.

It was a different world then. Twitter would not be invented for three more years (in March of 2006), and Facebook was a year away from its initial launch. Steroids were just starting to be a story. And the iPhone was four years away.

Here are some of my favorite posts over the years:

• Steve Hamilton's Folly Floater
• The day Willie Mays played shortstop
• Rick Ankiel can throw a little bit
• The seven worst starting pitchers ever
• The sixteen best seasons ever by a catcher

It's been a lot of fun. And the most rewarding part has been you, the readers. Thank you for reading all these years. And just for you, to help celebrate this event, here is a little contest. Name the four players who have played all nine positions in the same game. The hint is that you can find the answer by searching this blog because I have written about it. DO NOT PUT THE ANSWER IN THE COMMENTS. If you do, that ruins the contest and makes it null and void. Instead, send me an e-mail with your answer. The fifth correct answer will receive a 1987 Topps (#150) Wade Boggs baseball card. Which reminds me of another favorite post. It is a crime that the Red Sox have not retired Wade Boggs' number.

Thank you again. I am not done. Not by a long shot.

Don't forget about Dustin Pedroia

Since 2008, Dustin Pedroia has taken turns with the Yankees' Cano to finish in the top spot as baseball's top second baseman. But a June injury in 2012 and some oddball stats combined with a dismal season for the Red Sox to push Pedroia out of people's minds when considering the great second basemen of this era. That would be a mistake. The expectation here is that he will again take his rightful place and push Cano for the top spot again in 2013.

Pedroia ended in 2012 with his lowest on-base percentage and OPS of his career. But if you look at his season a year ago with a microscope, his numbers suffered because he probably played through an injury suffered in June that finally forced him to take some time off in July. June was a wasteland for Pedroia as he had a .538 OPS for the month. And when he only played 15 games in July, he posted all of a .295 on-base percentage.

The second baseman tried to play through his injury because that is the way he is. It was a mistake and it colored his season.

Just consider how his 2012 ended. During August and September, Pedroia had a triple slash line of, .330/.392/.518. But because of his June and July, the six different projection systems audited for this piece have projected he finishes below his career averages for all three items of that triple slash line and below his career wOBA. While it is understood that these projection systems spit out the data that is put in them and crunch out the numbers, the anomalies of his June and July are not accounted.

And the computers are not the only things that have downplayed Pedroia. There just isn't the buzz about him that there used to be. Part of that perhaps is that he got lost in the hoopla of the Red Sox the way they ended in 2011 and with what happened in 2012. But part of it is also that he missed a significant portion of 2010 and then had a season in 2012 that fell short of his previous standards.

And his 2012 had a few other weird things that happened statistically. His rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone in 2012 (O-swing) was below his career average. His overall swing percentage was also below his career average. His strikeout rate was also the lowest in three years. Despite this, his walk percentage fell from 10.4% in 2009, 10.5% in 2010 and 11.8% in 2011 to just 7.7% in 2012. That seems odd, doesn't it?

Taking a look at what he did with any counts where he reached three balls shows the difference. In 2011, Pedroia had 172 plate appearances where the count reached three balls. He walked 86 of those times or 50%. The relates to his career average of walking 45.5% of the time his count reached three balls. But in 2012, his count reached three balls 135 times and he walked only 48 of those times for a 35.5% rate.

Either this shows some sort of change in his approach (trying to do too much to help a bad club?) or it's just a one season fluke. The latter seems more the case. The bottom line of all this discussion is that his walk rate should bounce back to the 10% area where he has been the prior three seasons. All projections seem to agree with that belief at least.

Like all players in baseball, Pedroia will be as good in 2013 as his health allows. If he stays healthy, he is going to rejoin the debate on which second baseman is the best in baseball. The prediction here is that he will beat his projections and have a typical terrific Pedroia season.

Human Rain Delays

The spirit of Mike Hargrove lives on in Major League Baseball. Who are today's time wasters? I'll give you three: Jonathon Papelbon, Robinson Cano and Jose Valverde. Want to know more? Then check out my latest article for Big Leagues Magazine on e-stands now.

3000 for post number 3000

This post marks the three-thousandth post of this site. And I rarely write quick hit posts, so you have to figure an average of seven hundred words a post. So a decent estimate is that I have written two million, one hundred thousand words. Many of you have read at least a few hundred thousand of them and I am so appreciative that you stop by and read this stuff. To celebrate this milestone, let's celebrate those players who have reached 3,000 hits for their careers. There are twenty-eight of them. It would be easy enough to just list them. That would be boring. Instead, let's  give the details of each player's milestone hit (Pete Rose and Ty Cobb had another big milestone but we'll save for after the next thousand posts go by). Here we go!

Well, first, a disclaimer. With guys with a lot of hits over 3,000, I had to do some addition and subtraction to find out what year the event happened. I hope I don't get any of them wrong.

Of course we have to start with Pete Rose. If I did my calculations right, he reached hit 3,000 on May 16, 1978 in Montreal. He went three for five in the game and it was his second hit that made the mark. The hit came against Wayne Twitchell who started for the Expos. Rose doubled and scored in the first and singled to left for the milestone hit. The Reds won the game and Tom Seaver got the win. Rose made an error in the game at third base, but nobody is perfect.

Ty Cobb entered 1921 needing 144 hits to reach 3,000. He would reach the milestone in the second game of a double-header on August 19, 1921 against the Boston Red Sox. The game was played in Detroit and Cobb went three for five in the game and five for ten in the double-header. The third hit of the second game reached the milestone. The victim was Red Sox' pitcher, Elmer Myers, who was forced to pitch the entire game despite giving up ten runs on 19 hits and three walks. Like Rose, Cobb was 34 at the time. The double-header exploits lifted his average to .387. He finished the season at .389.

Sort of a weird pattern is going on here. Rose started 1978 needing 44 hits to get to 3,000. Cobb started 1921 needing 144. Hank Aaron started 1970 needing 44 hits to get to 3,000. Like Cobb, he got his milestone hit in the second game of a double-header. And like both Rose and Cobb, Aaron went three for five in the game. Aaron's happened on May 17, 1970. The big hit came in his first at bat against the Reds' Wayne Simpson in the first inning. The hit drove in a run. Unfortunately, the Braves lost both games that day in Cincinnati, the second one went fifteen innings. When Aaron got his hit, Pete Rose was watching out in right field.

A 38 year old Stan Musial entered the 1959 season needing 43 hits to get to 3,000. He was slowing down at this point and it took him until June 23, 1959 to get it done. The Cardinals were in Milwaukee to play the Braves. The hit came in his third at bat. He would go one for four in the game. He hit a single to left off of Carl Willey. Hank Aaron watched the hit from right field.

Tris Speaker entered the 1925 season in his 37th year on earth needing 39 hits to reach 3,000. He was also the manager of the Indians who finished the season in sixth place. He was in his seventh season as the player-manager. He would still finish the season batting .389 with a 1.057 OPS! He reached the 3,000 milestone on May 18, 1925 against the Washington Senators. The Senators were a great team and would end up winning the American League Pennant. The Indians won this one though, 9-6. Speaker went one for three in the game with two walks. He scored a run and drove in one.

Cap Anson finished his career before the turn of the 20th Century. We won't be able to get a game log for this one. As best I can tell, he hit his 3,000th hit sometime during the latter half of 1895. Anson was 43 at the time and still hit .335 playing for the Chicago Colts. He was also the player-manager.

Honus Wagner finished his career in 1917. We have the game logs only for his last two seasons. He reached 3,000 before that in 1914 when he entered that season needing 59 hits to reach the mark. He was 40 years old that season. According to the Sabr Baseball Biography Project:

"On June 9 he got his three-thousandth hit, doubling against Philadelphia's Erskine Mayer to become the first player to achieve that milestone in the twentieth century."

Carl Yastrzemski was 39 years old when the Red Sox played the Yankees in Fenway Park on September 12, 1979. Both teams had excellent records, but by this late in the season, the game was meaningless because both teams were double-digit games behind the front-running Orioles. The Red Sox won the game, 9-2. In the bottom of the eighth inning, Captain Carl came up with two outs and nobody on base. Jim Beattie was on the mound for the Yankees and Carl Yastrzemski hit a single to right for his 3,000th hit. His hometown fans gave him a long and huge ovation and then he left for a pinch runner waving his cap to the crowd on the way to the dugout.

For Paul Molitor's 3,000th hit, we'll again turn to the Sabr Baseball Biography Project for the story:

"On September 16, 1996, at Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium, Molitor singled in the first inning, the 2,999th hit of his major-league career. In the fifth inning, he hit a drive to right field off Jose Rosado and ended up on third base to become the first major leaguer to register a triple for his 3,000th hit. “I don’t know much about that young man [Rosado], but I know he did not try to avoid being the one who gave up my 3,000^th hit,” Molitor said. “I know he shook off a couple of signs and threw fastballs—saying, ‘If you’re going to get it, you’re going to get it.’”⁵³ George Brett and Molitor’s friend Robin Yount were among those on hand see him join them in the 3,000 hit club. The milestone hit came three years to the day after Winfield had collected his 3,000th hit, also for the Minnesota Twins, and the two became the first two players from the same hometown to accomplish the feat."

The 1925 Chicago White Sox were managed by Eddie Collins. He was also their regular second baseman. His double-play partner at short was Ike Davis. Heh. And he hit .346 that season at the age of 38! Collins started that season needing 48 hits to reach the 3,000 hit mark. He reached the milestone on June 2, 1925 in Detroit in a wild game against the Tigers. It was a game the Tigers would win, 16-15 and Collins went three for five in a losing effort. The second hit was the milestone hit.

Derek Jeter? Well, we all know that story. If by chance you don't, you can read about it here.

On July 18, 1970, a 39 year old Willie Mays played in a game against the Montreal Expos at Candlestick Park. He needed two hits to get to the 3,000 milestone. He went two for three to get the job done. The hit came in the sixth inning off of Bill Dillman and of course, it drove in a run.

  Eddie Murray was the Designated Hitter on July 30, 1995. He batted sixth in the lineup. Albert Belle was in front of him and Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez were behind him. Woof. That is a potent lineup. The Indians were rocking with a 41-17 record and easily beat the Twins in this game, 4-1. In the top of the sixth, Murray hit a single to right off of Mike Trombley to record hit number 3,000.

It is a real shame that Nap Lajoie finished his career on some of the worst teams ever. The 1914 Cleveland Naps were one of them. They went 51-102. LaJoie was 39 that season and was on his way out as a player. He would finish his career with two seasons in Philadelphia. Lajoie had 108 hits in 1914. His very last hit that season was his 3,000th.

Cal Ripkin Jr. was 39 years old in 2000 in the next to last year of his career. He started the 1970 season needing only nine hits to reach 3,000. Before the start of the game on April 15, 1970 against the Twins in the Hubert H. Humphrey Dome, he had only managed six and was batting .179. With 2,997 hits, Ripken would go three for five to reach the milestone. It was his third hit, a line drive single to center off of Hector Carrasco that got the job done.

On September 30, 1992, the Royals and the Angels were just playing out what was a bad year for both teams. George Brett, with the season winding down, still needed four more hits to reach 3,000. Unfortunately, the game was played in California and away from his adoring KC fans. Brett roped a double to left in the first and scored. He hit a single through the hole between first and second in the third. He hit a line drive single to center in the fifth. Then in the top of the eighth facing a long-forgotten pitcher by the name of Tim Forugno, Brett hit a line drive that the second baseman could not handle for his fourth hit. It was vintage Brett with three line drives to get to 3,000. Comically, one batter later, Brett was picked off first. That has to be the only time that has ever happened! He reached on an error in his last at bat of the game, so he reached base all five times he came to the plate.

In 1942, Hall of Fame player, Paul Waner, was playing for an awful Boston Braves team managed by Casey Stengel. He was definitely on the downside of his career and only hit .258 that season. On June 19, 1942 at home in another loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, Waner went one for five. But that one hit was his 3,000th hit. You can see an image of the hit here.

Robin Yount got his 3,000th hit on September 9, 1992. Like Waner, his team lost at home and like Waner, Yount went one for five. But that one hit put him at 3,000. It was a line drive to right-center off of Jose Mesa.

Tony Gwynn got his 3,000th hit in the first inning of a game where he eventually went four for five. The hit came off of starter, Dan Smith, who could not even pitch out of the first inning. The hit was a line drive to right-center.

Dave Winfield was 41 years old in 1993 when he played for the Minnesota Twins. The Twins were a bad club in 1993 but Winfield has his last decent season that year. On September 16, 1993, The Twins were down by two runs and had to face closer, Dennis Eckersley. After a Kirby Puckett lead off triple and a strikeout, Dave Winfield hit a single through the hole between third and short. Puckett scored. Winfield later scored the tying run to send the game into extra innings in a game the Twins eventually won. That perhaps might be one of the highest WPA scores we've seen on these milestone hits.

Like Winfield, Craig Biggio was 41 when he reached 3,000 hits. Unlike Winfield, it was Biggio's last season. Like Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit game, Biggio ended up with five hits in the game. The third one was the special one. After a ground out in the first inning, Biggio could not be retired the rest of the night as he went five for six. His single in the seventh off of Aaron Cook was his third hit of the game and the milestone. The hit also tied the game up in a game the Astros won in extra innings. Another high WPA milestone. The hit came at home for his home fans.

Rickey Henderson walked so many times that we'll have to forgive him that it took 23 seasons before he finally reached the magic 3,000 hit number. It happened on October 7, 2001. He was playing for the Padres at Colorado and it was the last game of the season. Henderson swung at John Thompson's first pitch and blooped a double to the right field line. He later scored the first run of the game. Henderson then took the rest of the day off.

Like Biggio, Rod Carew's 3,000th hit came in his last season in 1985. It happened on August 4 of that season in a win against his old team, the Twins. Carew only went one for five in that game. His one hit...the big hit...came as a single against Frank Viola in the bottom of the third inning. Carew had to share the spotlight that day as it was also the day that Tom Seaver won his 300th game.

Lou Brock also reached the 3,000 hit club in his last season in the big leagues. Brock's hit came against the same Chicago Cubs that traded him away to the Cardinals. Brock's milestone came in a win for the hometown fans.

Rafael Palmeiro recorded his 3,000th hit on July 15, 2005 in Seattle with a double against Joel Pineiro. I'm pretty sure that is the only 3,000th hit batter-pitcher combo that rhymes.

Wade Boggs was one of the best hitters I've ever watched in my lifetime. It is only fitting that he hit his milestone hit a week before Tony Gwynn. The two are often compared, but Gwynn was nowhere near as good a hitter as Boggs. Most know that Wade Boggs was the first player ever to have hit a home run for his 3,000th hit. The video can be found here.

Al Kaline finished his career with 3,007 hits. So it is pretty easy to figure out which one was his 3,000th. Only one other is easier. The game was September 24, 1974 in a game the Tigers lost to the Orioles in Memorial Stadium. Kaline had two hits in the game, but it was his first one, a lead off double in the top of the fourth against Dave McNally that was the milestone hit.

And finally, it just seems kind of right that Roberto Clemente finishes our list. His very last hit in the majors was his 3,000. It wasn't that he did not have more hits in him. It was just that he never got the chance as he was killed in a plane crash attempting a humanitarian airlift. His last hit was recorded on September 30, 1972 in a game against the New York Mets. The game was in Pittsburgh so his fans got to see his last hurrah. His last hit was a double off of Jon Matlack and he would later score his last run that same inning. To keep this record straight, it should be noted that those really weren't his last hits and runs scored. Clemente had four hits in the NLCS against the Reds.

There you go. There is my opus of a 3,000th post. It just might be my longest ever. Thank you again for giving me a reason to write for all these years.

Evan Longoria - Baseball's most indispensable player?

It is good to be Evan Longoria. He is 27 years old and knows that he will make millions of dollars a season until the year 2023. That has to be a pretty darned good feeling. Not only that, he plays for a team that has been competitive and in the the thick of things for every season he has been in the majors. Then again, there might be a correlation between those two facts in the last sentence. Evan Longoria might be the most indispensable player in baseball.

Longoria missed 88 games last season. Only three of them were rest days. All the 85 others were due to injury. While there is always some coincidence is such a statistic, the Tampa Bay Rays were 47-27 in the games he played and 43-45 in games he did not play. Those numbers are fairly stark--a .635 winning percentage with Longoria, .488 without him.

The average fan would probably not realize that since his first season in 2008, Evan Longoria has been the third most valuable player in baseball. The list goes like this: Pujols (34.4 fWAR), Braun (29.8 fWAR) and then Longoria (29.3 fWAR). Now consider that Pujols has played 768 games in that time. Braun has played 770 and Longoria has played 637. That's right, he has played 123 less games than Braun and 121 games less than Pujols and yet is right on their tails for the most valuable player since 2008.

If you break that down in wins per games played, Evan Longoria comes in at .046, Pujols at .044 and Braun at 0.38. There is something to be said, of course, for being able to stay healthy and Pujols and Braun have been able to stay healthier. But game for game, the only other player since 2008 that has been worth more per game is Utley at .047 wins per games played. Utley is probably on the other side of his great career. Longoria is just getting started.

The casual fan might think that Evan Longoria's great value that has been shown here today would be from his bat. But that is not the case. Longoria's wOBA and OPS are both 24th in baseball since 2008. Longoria has also been phenomenal in the field.

Since 2008, both Baseball-reference.com and Fangraphs have agreed on Evan Longoria's value in the field. Fangraphs ranks his defense as saving 54.5 runs since he began his career in 2008. B-R has him at 55. According to Fangraphs, that is the fifth highest in baseball during those five seasons. Only Gardner, Guttierrez, Beltre and Utley are ahead of him.

It is that combination of batting (137 OPS+ for his career) and fielding that makes Longoria so important to his team. The Rays will have just as good a shot at the American League East as long as Evan Longoria can stay in the lineup. Because when he is in there, he just might be the most indispensable and important player there is.

2013 projections for Manny Machado are too conservative

The leap is way too large to consider that the Baltimore Orioles went 33-18 once Manny Machado made the leap to the Major Leagues at the age of twenty last season. One player doesn't a .647 winning percentage down that stretch make. But it makes for a nice theory. After all, the third base position went from the worst fielding position in the majors to a savings of four and a half to seven runs (depending on the site) over the last 51 games.

I don't really know what the Fans Scouting Report is on Facebook player pages. But I do know that  I love what I see there. I normally see ratings in the 60s for most players in at least a few of the categories rated there. But not for Manny Machado. His scores showed a 73 for instincts, a 72 for first step, a 62 for speed (okay, he's not fast), a 73 for hands, a 78 for the quickness of his release, an 86 for arm strength and a 72 for accuracy. Sure, Adrian Beltre beats him in all those categories (except the speed thing). But we're talking a really good third baseman here.

And yet the projections all give him anywhere for his defense from 2.3 to 7 runs above average for his fielding in 2013. Will he really flatten out that much over the course of a full season? I really don't think so. I think what you are going to see is ten runs above average making the combination of he and Hardy one of the best left sides of an infield in baseball.

The projections for his offense are even more conservative. For example, Machado finished with a .183 ISO for his 51 games in 2012. And this was for a kid that went from Double-A to the majors at a young age. The highest ISO projection has him at .173. Most have him in the .150s to .160s. I don't see it. His home run to fly ball percentage was 11.7 percent and that is a pretty healthy rate. Combine that with an unusually low line drive percentage south of 14% in 2012 and it would seem that his line drive percentage will go up leading to more doubles and triples and if his home run production stays the same, that should organically mean an ISO of at least what he did last season. I believe it will be higher.

Machado did not exactly set the world on fire with his offense in his 51 games. His triple slash line was .262/.294/.445. Yeah, that's not setting cannons off or anything. But he was twenty years old! His OPS was .739. The projections for his 2013 set his range from .698 to a high of .752. I can't see it. For one thing, his walk percentage of only 4.2% in those 51 games is deceiving compared to his plate discipline numbers. For a young kid, he only swung at 29% of pitches out of the strike zone. And his walk percentage was always at least double that in all of his minor league stops.

I understand that projection systems are by nature conservative and based on numbers plugged into the computer and what the expectation of outcomes spit out based on all factors. And I am not saying that they are all wrong because my eyes tell me that the guy just looks like a great ballplayer.  I just think Manny Machado is going to continue to grow as a major league player. He has a great manager for bringing his talent along. My prediction (I'm not smart enough to project) is that he will improve on his 2012 start to his career and will be a five WAR player in 2013. Those who project for a living go from 1.2 WARP (BP) to a high of 3.7. I think he will top that easily. 

Troy Tulowitzki reclaims best shortstop title

The only thing that has kept Troy Tulowitzki from acclaim as baseball's best shortstop has been his propensity to get injured. He only played 47 games in 2012. He won Silver Slugger Awards in 2010 and 2011 as the best hitter for his shortstop position despite missing forty games in 2010 and another 19 in 2011. Despite missing those 59 games in 2010 and 2011, he was still a 6 WAR player. If he can dodge this injury thing in 2013, he has a chance to be the National League MVP. He is that good.

How good is Troy Tulowitzki when he is healthy? How about a career .373 wOBA? How about a career ISO of .212? His career triple slash line of .292/.364/.504 puts him among the best of the game, never mine his position.

He is a very patient hitter who also does not swing and miss very often. He has a 6.4% swing and miss rate for his career, but that figure has been under five for the past two seasons. He waits for a pitch he likes better than most too as his swing percentage is also among the lowest at 43.6%. He will walk between nine and ten percent of the time and only strikes out 15.7% for his career. He only struck out 9.4% of the time in his brief 2012.

His home runs per fly ball have always been in double digits for a percentage. The only flaws in his offensive game is that he hits as surprisingly high percentage of pop flies to the infield (13.4% for his career) and hits slightly more ground balls than fly balls. Well...and yeah, the injury thing.

Combine Troy Tulowitzki's offensive prowess as a shortstop with his fielding and you get a superstar. Well...that is until you get to 2012 where he was rated slightly below average in the field. That was probably a one year blip because his defensive metrics have always been excellent. It seems certain that if Tulowitzki had been able to stay healthy for the full season, he would have pulled the defensive metrics back where they usually are.

Of course, Tulowitzki will always get a bit of stink eye because he plays his home games at Coors Field. And sure, his career OPS at home is nearly a hundred points higher than his road OPS. But his road OPS is still .812 and that is pretty darned good.

Despite the fact that it has seemed like Troy Tulowitzki has been around for a long time, He is heading only into his Age 28 season, so he is just reaching his prime as a player.

Because of his injury past, it seems that projections for 2013 are conservative for him. Here are some of them with the biggest ones on top:

• Bill James - .298/.372/.522 with 28 homers
• Baseball Prospectus - .292/.370/.524 with 28 homers
• Steamer - .300/.374/.540 with 23 homers
• ZiPS - .294/.365/.535 with 23 homers

Only Bill James and Baseball Prospectus expect him to get a full playing season in. The rest have him missing games and that is fair considering his history.

But if Tulowitzki plays 155 games, he will hit over .300, hit over 30 homers and will be an MVP candidate with his combination of batting, position and fielding skills. Those projections that predict WAR give him a range of 5.5 to 6 as a projection for 2013. If he stays healthy, I don't see why that can't be pushed up to seven or seven and a half.

Troy Tulowitzki is one of the most talented players in baseball. Unfortunately, injuries have robbed us of far too much of his playing time. It would be great if he can play 155 times this season. Well...if would be great unless you were an opposing pitcher.

Coming to grips with antipathy for Jered Weaver

I need to deal with this intense dislike I have for Jered Weaver. I have not had this kind of dislike for a player since the earlier days of Chipper of the Braves and before that, Yaz of the Red Sox. The latter two I came to appreciate as--in the end--their body of work was worthy of respect and admiration. But I'm not there yet with Weaver and it is time to deal with it because he is one of the better pitchers of his generation.

Why do I dislike Weaver so intensely? Is there ever really a rhyme or reason for such feelings? It just is. Oh, I can say it is because of the way his temper boils over from time to time and has created scenes of anarchy. But I loved Clemens and he did that too. I can say it is his body language that seems to flip the bird at the world with everything he does. But so did Pedro when he was on the mound and I liked him. Maybe he suffers from memories of his brother, Jeff, who still fills my mind with nightmares.

No, there is no rational reason for hating Jered Weaver. It's just a thing that exists and looks for justification. It does not allow for a rational discourse of his pitching ability and performances. I cannot write about him fairly or with any kind of objectivity. How can I pull that off when I simply hate the guy?

But then there is his record. Since he began his career as a starter with the Angels in 2006, he has won 66.2 percent of his starts. His career ERA of 3.24 has been under 3.00 in each of the last two seasons. Those two seasons saw him go 38-13. Those are clearly some really impressive numbers.

And the way those numbers have been accumulated have been nearly as impressive. He is not a fireballing pitcher with a 95 MPH heater. He is not a ground ball savant. In fact, his ground ball to fly ball ratio of 0.70 for his career is among the lowest of his peers. And yet, only eight percent of those fly balls go over the fence and the last two seasons, his BABIPs have been insane at .250 and .241 respectively. In fact, his BABIP against has been an astounding .270 for his career. So clearly he induces a lot of useless contact.

Weaver's WHIP the last three seasons have been 1.074, 1.010 and 1.018 respectively. That is pretty darned impressive. He has improved his walk rate to only 2.1 per nine innings the last two seasons and his career strikeout to walk ratio is 3.17. All of those numbers are terrific.

Weaver has made at least 30 starts for five straight seasons, making him extremely durable despite being slight of stature with a violent throwing motion. He has earned respect for the way he has pitched no matter how much I dislike the guy.

Putting all feelings aside, there is a bit of a concern at how long he can stay as effective as he has been. His velocity has dipped a mile per hour in each of his last two seasons. You would think that violent, all-or-nothing pitching motion would catch up to him eventually. His long-term contract with the Angels seemed questionable at the time and still does due to these concerns.

But what will be will be and for right now, Jered Weaver has been a premier pitcher since he arrived on the scene for the Angels. His record speaks for itself. I acknowledge that I cannot get over my dislike for the guy. But at least admitting to how good he is will exonerate me just a little bit.

Pedro Florimon - not a star, but an improvement

The Minnesota Twins have admitted the mistakes of the past when it came to their middle infielders. One official is quoted by MLB Reports as admitting the mistake of sending away J.J. Hardy and the fiasco caused by Nishioka and Casilla. Admitting your problems is the first half of the battle, so they say. And it should be noted that the Twins' current options will not hit anywhere near where Hardy can hit. But at least for the time being, they have Pedro Florimon Jr., who can certainly field his position.

There is much to like about Florimon at short. In each of his last two seasons in the minors, he had over 350 assists in less than 125 games. And then last year with the Twins, he had 125 assists in just 42 starts. So he can go get it. In fact, in those 42 starts, he made 29 plays considered out of range.

Florimon has a great first step, lots of speed, good instincts and good strength in his throwing arm. Five of his seven errors were fielding errors and only two were throwing errors, so it's not like he is going to throw the ball all over the place. He is someone who can man the position for the first time since Hardy. His fielding will make people in Minnesota get some of the bad taste out of their mouths from Nishioka, Casilla and even Dozier.

The problem with Florimon is that there isn't much hope for him at the plate. He showed decent patience, swinging at only 44% of the pitches he saw and kept his O-swing below 30%. Those numbers did not translate into many walks. His walk rate was 6.7%. If he can get that up to over 8% like he did in his minor league career, that would be much better.

Florimon's BABIP was well below average at .274 in his 150 plate appearances. And part of that is that he hit grounders at a Jeter-inspiring rate of 2.65 for every fly ball he hit. If he is a slap and dash kind of hitter, he will always be somewhat limited by whatever his BABIP is. He has no appreciable power.

So, no, Pedro Florimon Jr. is not going to hit and be a star with the stick. But if he can field his position like I think he will, Florimon is going to be a huge improvement over the past two futile seasons.

The under the radar career of Koji Uehara

One of the unsung deals of this off season was when the Boston Red Sox signed Koji Uehara to a one year deal for $4.25 million. He was rated as the 35th top free agent on MLB Trade Rumors before the off season really got under way. But still, the signing went under the radar. And that is only fitting because Uehara's entire career has been under the radar.

Koji Uehara came to the majors in 2009 and started twelve games in his first season with a 98-loss Orioles team. Uehara pitched fairly well that season as a starter, though he did not go deep into games and missed much time due to injury. All of his appearances since the beginning of 2010 have been relief appearances. There are two basic flaws in Uehara's game. The first his the injury bug as he has had trouble staying healthy. That continued in 2012 as he missed much of the season with a lat strain. But when he is healthy, he has been pretty spectacular.

Since 2010, Uehara has led all relief pitchers in several categories. His ability to throw strikes is what sets him apart. His 1.06 walks per nine innings is easily the lowest among all relief pitchers since 2010. He is third among all relief pitchers in throwing first pitch strikes. The last thing you want from a reliever is to come in and start throwing balls and walking people. Uehara hardly ever does that. He has only walked 17 batters in 145 innings pitched!

While walking very few batters, Uehara strikes out batters at a very healthy pace. His 11.36 strikeout percentage is the fourteen highest among relievers since 2010. Add that strikeout rate to his walk rate and you have something pretty special. In fact, his strikeout to walk ratio as a reliever is 10.76 to 1, easily the best in baseball. That is a pretty tight resume.

But there is more. He also is stingy at giving up hits and has only allowed 7.1 hits per nine innings in his career including his twelve starts in 2009. Low hits plus low walks add up to a great WHIP and his 0.77 WHIP leads all over major league relievers since the start of 2010. And his .179 average against is the seventh lowest in that time.

Throwing strikes is one thing. Throwing effective strikes is another. Since the start of 2010, It's not like his 89 MPH fastball is going to blow you away. But his combination of combining a four-seam fastball with a split-fingered fastball have been very effective. He throws each about half the time so you never really know which one is coming and that keeps your eye level guessing.

His split-fingered fastball has been the second highest rated since he started relieving in 2010. And because of that pitch, Uehara has the highest O-swing rate among all relievers since he started pitching out of the bullpen. O-swing measures how many times a batter swings at a pitch out of the strike zone. Uehara's rate stands at an astounding 41.4 percent. It is this ability to get batters to chase that allows Uehara to lead all relievers in total swing percentage at 54.9 percent. And since his swing and miss rate is fourth best among relievers at a 15.7 percent rate, that's a great combination.

I mentioned earlier that one of Koji Uehara's flaws was an inability to stay healthy. The other comes from the fact that he is an extreme fly ball pitcher. His ground ball to fly ball ratio is a very low 0.64. Batters don't hit his pitches very often. But when they do, they hit the ball in the air. That has led to his one other flaw, his home run rate of 1.1 per nine innings.

Koji Uehara has had an average valuation of $5.67 million per season with his pitching. While the Red Sox are not getting a big discount paying him $4.25 in 2013, they should get their money's worth. Uehara has a unique combination of getting batters to swing at his pitches and never walking anyone. If he can stay healthy, the Red Sox will get a very stabilizing pitcher out of their bullpen.

Uehara's career has flown under the radar. Perhaps it is because he has not been a closer (he has saved fourteen games in his career). Perhaps it is because his career has had stops and starts with injury. And perhaps it is because when he went to the Rangers in the middle of a pennant race and was seen nationally for the first time, he struggled a bit. Be that as it may, Koji Uehara has been a terrific relief pitcher.

Micah Owings' long odds

Micah Owings has long been a favorite of this site. He had a cool name and was one of those rare birds as a pitcher who could hit. The trouble was that despite the constant cheering, he never was much of a pitcher. As a right-handed pitcher, he could get some right-handed batters out, but left-handed batters bashed him to the tune of an .830 OPS against for his career. But he was different because he could hit. In fact, he has sent to the plate as a pinch hitter 48 times in his career. How many pitchers can say that? Now, Micah Owings wants to ditch his pitching career and is in the Nationals' camp hoping to be a first baseman.

We've been down this road before with Rick Ankiel. In fact, Owings has spoken with Ankiel about making the switch. But there are several differences between the two cases. Ankiel was a prodigious pitching talent who flamed out when he suddenly suffered from an inability to throw the ball anywhere near the strike zone. Ankiel was still very young when his pitching career ended. Owings is 30.

Another difference is that Ankiel worked his way back to the majors by spending time in the minor leagues as a batter and fielder after making the switch. Owings is trying to make the Nationals without any such re-training. Since Owings was drafted in 2005, he has all of 316 professional plate appearances, 219 of those in the majors.

By all appearances, Owings is a more talented hitter than Rick Ankiel ever was. Owings owns a major league slugging percentage of .502 and an OPS of .813. He had an .845 OPS in the minors. Perhaps that might be a misstatement. Ankiel did put together an .876 OPS in the minors. But with the exception of one decent season with the Cardinals, Ankiel has not been a good major league hitter with a .729 career OPS.

But also, Ankiel offered at least some value in the field. Perhaps misplaced in center field, Ankiel has at least held his own as a major league fielder with career fielding numbers in the slightly better than average category. And, of course, Ankiel's ability to gun out runners from the outfield is legendary.

Owings wants to be a first baseman. That position is one not considered to have a need for great fielding prowess (though good fielding first basemen have long been undervalued). Owings choice of position shows that he has little to offer as a fielder and will have to make a living as a hitter.

With Ankiel as his model, the odds are not favorable. Will Owings go to the minors if he doesn't make the Nationals and prove he can hit and field? Or will the Nationals simply cut him and end the experiment before it can get started?

It would have been much more fun for Micah Owings to be a fringe starter in the National League and show off his bat every fifth day. That was a fun story. That, we rooted for. But, while interesting, his current project seems to have little odds of success. He is a 30 year old hitting prospect in a young man's game. If some miracle happened and he caught on, that would be cool. I would lay the odds of that happening as the same of finding a warm beach in Maine in February.

Jordan Zimmermann - deception, heat and strikes

Jordan Zimmermann might be the best Number 3 starter in baseball. You can argue whether Strasburg or Gonzalez is Number 1, but everyone will agree that those two are your top two. But then you get Jordan Zimmermann on the third day and that is not a picnic by any stretch of the imagination. Gonzalez had a WHIP of 1.129 and Strasburg finished 2012 with a 1.155. Right behind them was Zimmermann at 1.170 and he was second on the team in strikeout to walk ratio. Zimmermann is a terrific combination of deception, heat and strike throwing ability.

What is so impressive about Jordan Zimmermann is that even though he is a young pitcher, he throws strikes and he throws them often. How many pitchers throw the slider for a higher strike percentage than their fastball? Zimmermann threw his slider for a strike 71% of the time and his fastball 68.5 percent of the time.

That combination allowed him to lead off a batter with either pitch for a strike. His first pitch strike rate of 69.2% was second only to Lee of the Phillies. Overall, he was eleventh in baseball for the lowest walks percentage among qualifying starters. And he does all of this despite having a big time fastball.

Zimmerman averaged 93.6 MPH on his fastball which was good for the sixth highest among qualifying starters. His slider had the seventh highest velocity. None of the ten lower walk rates from pitchers ahead of him came close to those velocities. His combination of economy and velocity is rare in baseball. His numbers in 2012 very closely resemble those of Sabathia. And yeah, Sabathia had a difficult season health wise, but to be in the same ballpark as most of Sabathia's numbers is pretty impressive.

You have already been painted a picture of Zimmermann's velocity and ability to throw strikes. The third part of the equation is deception. Zimmermann throws hard and he throws strikes, but he also gets batters to swing at pitches out of the strike zone. He had the sixth highest O-swing rate among all qualified starters. O-swing rate is the amount of pitches a batter swings at out of the strike zone. They did so 34.4 percent of the time.

Oh, there is one other thing that Zimmermann did really well. Once he got runners on base, he did a real good job of limiting the damage. His strand rate of 79.3 was the fifth best in baseball. A few of the guys ahead of him included Price, Dickey and Sale.

Zimmermann has now made 58 starts in the last two seasons. He has pitched 357 innings and has walked only 74 batters. His homers per nine have been good at 0.7 and 0.8 respectively the last two seasons. His WHIP has been terrific with 1.143 in 2011 and 1.170 in 2012.

Jordan Zimmermann is just a really good young pitcher who at 27 is coming into his own. If he is your Number 3 horse with all of those great stats, no wonder there is so much optimism coming out of the Nationals this season.

Relievers by pitch value - Craig Kimbrel is the bomb

I took a look yesterday at qualifying starting pitchers using PitchF/X pitch values to find the top ten and bottom ten values using repertoire as criteria. In other words, if you put together the value of all their pitches, which pitcher had the deadliest set of pitches. Kershaw came out on top with Verlander a close second. Nova came in dead last among the 85 qualifiers with Ricky Romero right ahead of him. These findings were not surprising. Today, I want to put that same test to relievers who qualified. There are more qualifiers with relievers and unlike the starters, the results did not always jive with other standard measures of rating pitchers.

Okay, here is how it works. I took each qualifying relief pitcher and added up the value PitchF/X assigned for each of the pitches each threw. That gave me a total value of all the pitcher's pitches. For example, Jonny Venters of the Braves had a two-seam fastball value of -0.3 runs below average. His sinker was worth -2.6. His slider was worth 3.1 runs above average and his change-up was worth 0.5. Add them all up together and you get a total value of 0.7 runs above average for all his pitches. With 135 relievers qualifying, Venters finished 103rd. This is a bit of a disconnect compared to his finish with fWAR, which was 94th.

Anyway, here are the results, starting with the top ten:

1. Craig Kimbrel:  27.7   devastating fastball   devastating slider
2. Fernando Rodney:  26.5    his change-up was the second deadliest pitch among relievers.
3. Aroldis Chapman:  23.4   His two-seam fastball was the deadliest pitch
4. Brad Ziegler:  20.2   A bit of a surprise. His sinker is killer.
5. Grant Balfour:  19.6   The surprises continue.
6. Ryan Cook:  18.4
7. Kenley Jansen:  18.3   The best cutter since Rivera
8. Jake McGee:  17.4   Great fastball
9. Jim Johnson:  15.6   Throws everything well
10. Jason Motte:  15.6     Motte the Hoopla

Those results are surprising. The top three are not. The rest, definitely.

Okay, now the ten worst:

1. Rhiner Cruz:  -11.6
2. Phil Coke:  -9.2   Except for the ALCS when he looked untouchable. 
3. Livan Hernandez:  -8.9   How does he keep getting a job?
4. Matt Reynolds:  -8.5
5. Jeff Gray:  -8.3
6. Kameron Loe:  -7   His sinker sunk him.
7. Chad Qualls:  -5.4
8. Heath Bell:  -4.3
9. Chris Resop:  -3.9
10. Clay Hensley:  -3.7

As I said yesterday, I am not advocating that we rate pitchers by looking at their pitch values. I just find it interesting and an alternative way of looking at pitching results.

Rating by pitch values - Clayton Kershaw is really good

Every year I like to look at the pitch values given by PitchF/X. There are lots of ways to look at how valuable pitchers are (or aren't). There is WAR, FIP, and a few others that are in vogue for finding such value. But I like pitch value because it tells you what pitchers use and how successful they are at using it. I like using PitchF/X instead of Fangraphs pitch value data because PitchF/X breaks out the fastballs by type such as four-seam, two-seam and sinkers.

So what I've done is found the 85 starting pitchers who qualified with enough innings pitched. I then exported their PitchF/X pitch value to a spreadsheet. And then I added up the value given to each pitcher's total value for all pitches he throws. For example, Zack Greinke received 10.9 runs above average for his four-seam fastball, 6 for his two-seam, -2.4 for his cutter, 0.9 for his slider, 2 for his curve and -0.4 for his change-up. Add them all together and his pitches were worth 17 runs above average. That was good for 17th best among the 85 starters.

The single most valuable pitch in baseball in 2012 was R.A. Dickey's knuckleball. That makes sense for a couple of reasons. For one, he throws it all the time with only a few fastballs and curves once in a while. And while that pitch was the most valuable, he came in fourth overall among the 85 starters.

The single worst pitch of 2012 was Ervin Santana's four-seam fastball which had a value of -29.3. Wow! That's awful. But his slider was worth 11 among other pitches, so he only finished tenth worst in total value for the season.

Here are the ten least valuable pitchers based on pitch value.

1. Ivan Nova:  -26. Everything he threw ended up in the batter's sweet spot.
2. Ricky Romero: -25.4
3. Bruce Chen: -22.7
4. Jeremy Guthrie:  -22.1
5. Ubaldo Jimenez:  -21.9
6. Luke Hochevar:  -20.2
7. Tommy Hanson:  -19.7
8. Rick Porcello:  -18.7    -17.8 on his slider!
9. Henderson Alvarez:  -17.8
10. Ervin Santana: -15.9

It must give heartburn to Royals fans that three of their pitchers were in there. I would think that most of Jeremy Guthrie's problems came from his time in Colorado.

The ten highest rated pitchers based on pitch value:

1. Clayton Kershaw:  40.8  26 on just his two-seam fastball alone!
2. Justin Verlander:  37.4   Had a positive value on every pitch he threw.
3. David Price:  36.3
4. R.A. Dickey:  34.7
5. Gio Gonzalez:  33.9
6. Felix Hernandez: 31.3
7. Jered Weaver: 29.9
8. Matt Cain:  26.5
9. Chris Sale:  24.7  positive numbers on all his pitches.
10. Johnny Cueto:  21.1

By the way, I don't expect this to be the standard way of looking at pitcher value. I just like this as an alternative in an attempt to get a well-rounded look at each pitcher. The spreadsheet I used is below if you want to see the numbers. You can click on it to see it better. Tomorrow, I'll look at the relievers.

Adam Wainwright is a projector's dream

When I imagine people who project players for a coming season, I think of huge spreadsheets, fast computers and a lot of trying to figure out how a player is trending. But those who project Adam Wainwright have to consider him like a dream. He has his parameters from year to year that you can count on. Some players are up and down in peaks and valleys. Not Adam Wainwright. He is a projector's dream.

And you would think that would not be the case coming off of a major surgery that cost him his entire 2011 season. But forget the record and forget the ERA, Adam Wainwright was the same pitcher in 2012 that he was in 2010 and 2009. Don't believe me? Here, take a look:

Here are some numbers for his last three seasons starting with 2009 and ending with 2012:

• FIP - 3.11, 2.86, 3.10
• K/9 - 8.19, 8.32, 8.34
• BB/9 - 2.55, 2.19, 2.36
• HR/9 - 0.66, 0.59, 0.68
• GB% - 50.7%, 51.6%, 50.8%
• HR per season: 17, 15, 15

I know that the Cardinals and Wainwright just cut off contract extension talks for the time being. Wainwright says the door isn't closed but that it just didn't work out at this time. But seriously, has any team ever had an easier time knowing what they are paying for? Sure, Wainwright pitched about twenty less innings in 2012 than usual because of the team being cautious with his rebuilt elbow. But still. Negotiations should be easy on this one.

Adam Wainwright did not get the pretty stats in 2012 that he had in 2010. But he was the same pitcher. His results were pretty much the same except his BABIP was higher and more runs scored as a result. But otherwise, he was the same exact pitcher.

His quality start percentage should get back to 2010 and 2009 levels as he is allowed to go deeper into games again. There is no longer a need to baby him a year later. But that doesn't mean he'll have a great spike in all these stats we've talked about. Knowing Wainwright, he'll be the same pitcher he's been for three years now and the win/loss percentage and ERA will depend on what goes on with batted balls and those who play behind him.

Otherwise, Adam Wainwright is about as predictable a pitcher as there is. And that is a good thing.

Toradol use by Jon Lester and others is frightening

Jon Lester of the Boston Red Sox was quite candid about his frequent use of toradol injections in a recent ESPN.com article. And quite frankly, that's frightening. I first wrote about this last July with help from my wife who was a nurse for decades in hospitals in Illinois and here in Maine. She was horrified that athletes were being injected with this stuff on a regular basis. The ESPN.com article linked above not only states that doctors have been injecting this for Lester and others, but that team trainers, who are not authorized to make such injections are doing so as well.

The key thing to note here is that toradol is typically used after an operation to aid with inflammation. It is not supposed to be used long-term. There are serious side-effects for some patients. In my previous article on the subject, I copied this quote from drugs.com:

"Toradol is used short-term (5 days or less) to treat moderate to severe pain, usually after surgery. It is used alone or in combination with other medicines."

There was also this warning of side effects:

"Toradol can also increase your risk of serious effects on the stomach or intestines, including bleeding or perforation (forming of a hole). These conditions can be fatal and gastrointestinal effects can occur without warning at any time while you are taking Toradol. Older adults may have an even greater risk of these serious gastrointestinal side effects."

So how, then, did this specific model of usage come to professional sports? And does the fact it did show that teams AND players are complicit in finding any "legal" means for subjecting athlete bodies with anything that can aid in the performance of producing a sporting act? I think it does. This is the culture of big-money sports.

And this being the nature of sports, is it any surprise that the constant quest of aiding the body in the performance on the field has led to the PED problem the sport now faces? The only real difference between the PEDs that are legislated against and things like toradol, cortisone and blood transfusions or whatever it is that athletes do is that some are legal and some are not. Lester repeats over and over that toradol is legal.

Yes, it is legal. But is that the point? The only point of legislating against PEDs and its users should not be the "cheating" aspect so often associated with such usage. The point is about the long-term health of the athletes. Putting the focus on the former instead of the latter helps baseball and other sports to overlook the abuse of what are legal drugs used in non-standard ways.

I have watched a bazillion games on television. I have seen the trainers on the Yankees hand out pills and a cup of liquid to all Yankee players before a game, yes, even to Derek Jeter. Perhaps these are only pain killers. But should pain killers be used when there might not be pain? Even over-the-counter pain killers have side effects. Who knows, maybe they are only vitamins or salt pills. But the level of blind trust is the problem. Trainers dispense. Players ingest.

The story from ESPN and the words coming from Jon Lester are frightening. They are also illuminating. They do not make the doctors in the Red Sox' locker room or the pitcher all that much different than some clinic down in south Florida and the athletes that may or may not have used there. Lester and the physicians and trainers in Boston show that the money is so big and the pressure so great that injections of a drug so totally out of its normal usage model illustrates why players take PEDs. Toradol is a PED. Other pain killers and muscle relaxers may be legal, but they are PEDs too.

It's time to stop worrying about who is cheating and start worrying more about what we allow players and teams to risk with athletic bodies. Oh, and that story's disclaimer that there is not a definitive link between the emergency Clay Buchholz experienced and toradol is just another symptom of an eye being covered up just before it gets poked out.

MLB season preview from Big Leagues Magazine

When I was a kid, one of the best parts of the year was going to the store and buying a preview of the upcoming baseball season. It was magical and I devoured those things from cover to cover. If I remember right, they cost about a buck and a half each year. Here it is forty years later and I can actually say that I was a small part of bringing one of these season previews to life. How cool is that? The media is different, of course. Instead of newspaper stock and ink that ran on your hands, the preview is electronic and it is called Big Leagues Magazine. And it is a vast publication!

And the cool part? It only costs $4.95 to read. In today's prices, that is a latte and a doughnut (apparently, Chrome doesn't think "donut" is a word). I wrote the previews for the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays.

Interested? All you have to do is go here and sign in and pay the $4.95 and you will have hours of baseball entertainment. Not only are there team previews, but each team also has features on some fantasy topics and the top prospects. There are also several excellent articles added to make up a huge body of baseball reading heaven. The quality of writers is topnotch too.

I would be honored if you would check it out as I am really proud to be a part of this exciting publication.