Rudy May Day over at It's About the Money, Stupid

I wrote a piece for my other gig at It's About the Money, Stupid on Rudy May and particularly focused on his 1980 season for the New York Yankees. He was the ultimate swing-man of baseball.

Read all about it here.

MLB Game Picks - Monday: May 19, 2014

That's much better. After two weeks of mediocrity, the picks went 12-4 yesterday. I called both games of the Yankees - Pirates double-header correctly. The Tigers completed their white-washing of the Red Sox. I did think the Rays would win behind David Price, but that was wrong. I thought the Dodgers would win behind Dan Haren and that was wrong. But I did call the Cubs over the Brewers and the Astros over the White Sox and those all came in. It was a good day.

I don't get to roll in my success today though because there are only five games on the schedule. Here they are:

• The Nationals over the Reds: The Reds are struggling offensively without Joey Votto and Stephen Strasburg should be the beneficiary. But even if Strasburg is not on the top of his game, the Nats should hit Mike Leake fairly well to win anyway.
• The Indians over the Tigers: This game is a trap. The Tigers are on a roll with several wins in a row and the Indians just came off a dreadful series against the A's. So the natural pick is the Tigers. But Corey Kluber is perhaps the Indians' best pitcher and Drew Smyly, The Emoticon, is the weakest link in the Tigers' rotation.
• The Braves over the Brewers: Both teams are struggling offensively. Both teams are scuffling period. But Mike Minor was very good in his last start and Wily Peralta is better picked when home.
• The Royals over the White Sox: The White Sox are really downtrodden right now. I still believe they have the wrong manager. But that's just me. Scott Carroll started his Big League career with two fine starts, but since has allowed 22 hits in his last nine innings. Jason Vargas should win this one.
• The Angels over the Astros: It scares me that I picked five games and all five picks were the home team. Hmm... But seriously, shouldn't Garrett Richards beat Dallas Keuchel even if Keuchel has pitched pretty well of late? Yeah, that's what I think too.

Yesterday: 12-4, May: 137-113, Games of the Day: 22-23, Season: 370-285

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: May 18, 2014

Yesterday was bad for this old picker. Real bad. "How bad was it?" shouts the crowd. The Diamondbacks scored 18 runs in a game where Clayton Kershaw started. Edwin Jackson threw seven shutout innings and his bullpen did not blow it.  Homer Bailey was terrible after being brilliant the game before. Cole Hamels actually got...you know...run support.  Who would expect all those things to happen? But they did.

Okay. It's just a day. I can make it better with a good Sunday. I am buckling down. And here come Sunday's picks:

• The Athletics over the Indians: The way the rest of the weekend has been for the Indians, this has to be the pick. Yes, Justin Masterson could have a good day. But Jesse Chavez could too. And if the two cancel each other out, then the A's have the better bullpen.
• The Yankees split with the Pirates: A good old-fashioned double-header where one ticket can get you two games. Holy cow, what a concept. I like the Yankees in the first game with Hiroki Kuroda over Charlie Morton. But power pitchers like Gerrit Cole gives the Yankees problems and I like him over Vidal Nuno.
• The Phillies over the Reds: Cliff Lee still doesn't walk anyone, but he has given up 69 hits and five homers in 61+ innings. I still think he has a good day against the Reds and I don't like Tony Cingrani coming off the DL and not having pitched for eighteen days.
• The Nationals over the Mets: This pick did not work out yesterday. And one of these days Zack Wheeler will put it together. I still like and will stick with Jordan Zimmermann.
• The Orioles over the Royals: One of two things will happen here. Either James Shields will be too much for the Orioles OR they will notch him for three homers. There is no in between. Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching against the AL Central, something he does better than against the AL East.
• The Astros over the White Sox: This one has a lot of options. Brad Peacock had been pretty awful for most of the season. But his last two starts were much better (even though he didn't win). So I am looking for him to get his first win of the season today. I do this because I think the Astros have enough right-handed bats to hit John Danks.
• The Mariners over the Twins: The Mariners need this one, especially with Felix Hernandez on the mound. He should enjoy pitching in the big ballpark. Ricky Nolasco is the wild card.
• The Braves over the Cardinals: Ugh. I hate this one. Jaime Garcia is starting his first game in like forever. He only pitched seven innings on his rehab in the minors and did not look great with lots of hits and homers. But I also don't like Gavin Floyd for the Braves either. Like I said, Ugh.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: The Brewers are free-falling a bit. And Gomez has a bad back. And the Brewers are facing the Cubs' very good pitcher, Travis Wood. I don't think Marco Estrada is the answer to reverse the weekend thus far.
• The Blue Jays over the Rangers: Nick Martinez, who starts today for the Rangers, is not stretched out. He has been in the bullpen. He walks too many batters. He hasn't given up any homers despite more fly balls than ground balls. That will change today. At the same time, I am unsure about R.A. Dickey in Texas.
• The Bay Rays over the Angels: Matt Shoemaker hasn't been bad for the Angels. But he isn't David Price. And David Price hadn't been David Price until his last outing. So this is a tough one to pick. I have to go with Price.
• The Giants over the Marlins: This pick wasn't right yesterday and I am a bit afraid of the Ryan Vogelsong to Giancarlo Stanton match-up. But Jacob Turner persuades me to go with the Giants.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Will the La Russa effect continue today? I don't think so. I think it was just a coincidence. I like Dan Haren over Josh Collmenter on most days.
• The Tigers over the Red Sox: To begin with, I think the Tigers will hit Jake Peavy. But how well will Anibal Sanchez pitch? He has been nonexistent all season for the Tigers. The Red Sox are in a bit of a disarray though with Bradley and Bogaerts struggling and problems at third base.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Rockies over the Padres: Donn Roach has made twelve relief appearances for the Padres. And he is being asked to start in Coors Field. Good luck with that. Juan Nicasio for the win.

Yesterday: 6-9, May: 125-109, Games of the Day: 21-23, Season: 358-281

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: March 17, 2014

I laughed out loud this morning when I looked at yesterday's results. I have been stuck on the 8-7 mark for full schedule days for a week now and after tallying up yesterday, I finished at 8-6. The only reason I did not finish 8-7 was because of a rain out in New York. The same thing happened on Wednesday when I finished 8-5 because of two rained out games. Call this the Groundhog Day of picking.

Drew Hutchison really has thrown me for a loop this season. When he is good, he is good enough to beat Yu Darvish. When he is not, he is out of the game by the fifth inning. How do you predict which will happen when? And the other close loss was Max Scherzer out-dueling Jon Lester. A match-up of aces that could have gone either way. And it should have been a draw if Will Middlebrooks hadn't been Will Middlebrooks in the first inning in the field.

Saturday's picks:

• The Cardinals over the Braves: Shelby Miller believes he knows what his problem has been in his mechanics this season. I believe him and he will have a good day. Aaron Harang is starting to meet himself at his statistical mean.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: To be honest, I have no clue in this one. I suspect that the Cubs will be gunning for Matt Garza for what he said to Samardzija. I also suspect that Edwin Jackson will get all of Samardzija's run support. But I still think the Brewers win. I know. Weird.
• The Nationals over the Mets: The Mets have lost three in a row and Bartolo Colon has been hit hard of late. I like Gio Gonzalez in this one.
• The Yankees over the Pirates: This is the same pitching line that was supposed to happen yesterday. That said, I am surprised the Yankees did not skip David Phelps here. But I still think the Yankees will hit a few of Edinson Volquez's offerenings over the wall.
• The White Sox over the Astros: I have been surprised at how the White Sox have turned around Hector Noesi. They have a really good pitching coach there. I don't think Noesi will ever be great, but he will win today over Jarred Cosart.
• The Reds over the Phillies: That whooshing sound you are hearing is that Phillies sinking to the depths of the NL East. Cole Hamels can't get a break to save himself and Homer Bailey is starting to own his stuff.
• The Athletics over the Indians: Scott Kazmir is a secret elder of a gentle race and is 5-1. I like his chances over Josh Tomlin today. Tomlin has been very good too though. The A's are amazing.
• The Royals over the Orioles: Danny Duffy has walked too many batters in his two starts, but has otherwise been tough to hit. I like him today against the Orioles since he is left-handed. I've never been a big Bud Norris fan, though the pitcher did have a good outing last time out.
• The Red Sox over the Tigers: My instinct was telling me that the Tigers would hit John Lackey. But Lackey likes pitching in Boston and as well as Rick Porcello has been pitching, the Red Sox should find him a treat after Scherzer yesterday.
• The Mariners over the Twins: How could the M's go get Robinson Cano and then stop there? The man needs help. I do like the way Roenis Elias pitches though and I think he will be better than Sam Deduno.
• The Blue Jays over the Rangers: It is hard to argue with the roll Mark Buehrle has been on. Buehrle has always been more steady than great. So what is different this year? I don't know, but I'm sticking with him until he goes back to his old self. Robbie Ross goes for the Rangers.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Clayton Kershaw has a 3.00 ERA at Chase Field with 10.6 strikeouts per nine. But he is 3-5 there in eight decisions. I think he still wins today over young Chase Anderson.
• The Giants over the Marlins: I do think that Tim Lincecum will give up a bomb to Giancarlo Stanton. But I still think he wins a low scoring game against Tom Koehler and the Marlins.
• The Angels over the Bay Rays: I was wrong with this pick yesterday as Chris Archer had a really good day. But Cesar Ramos is not Chris Archer and C.J. Wilson should be good at home.

And the Game of the Day

• The Rockies over the Padres: Yeah, Jordan Lyle's 5-0 record is hard to fathom and reality doesn't seem to fit here. But I do think the Rockies will out hit the Padres who start Robbie Erlin. Robbie Days aren't the same without Robbie Ray.

Yesterday: 8-6, May: 111-94, Games of the Day: 20-22, Season: 352-272

fWAR Games

I am not a good writer to talk about numbers. I love the new stats and trying to figure out what they are telling me. But just don't ask me how they are calculated or to dig much deeper than that. I am probably a cross between Murray Chass and Dave Cameron. I like the numbers, but I don't always get them. I do know that WAR is an attempt to try to give us a value of a player that can be used to compare the player to others and a league replacement. Knowing only as much as that, sometimes what I find makes me scratch my head (hence, some of my Chass DNA). *

*Shameless Posnanski Asterisk: If you are too young to get the reference of this post, I apologize.

The first thing that set me off in this questioning mode was the fWAR (the "f" stands for Fangraphs.com) was looking at where Masahiro Tanaka stood among his fellow starters. I was surprised to find him tied for fourth behind Jon Lester, Felix Hernandez and Corey Kluber (if you can believe it). He is tied with Jose Fernandez of the Marlins who will be out the rest of the season and Justin Verlander. How can this be?

He has a better xFIP than all of them. He has a better K/BB ratio. He has the best LOB percentage. And, as meaningless as the stat is, he is 6-0 and the Yankees would be in a whup of trouble without him. The only thing I can see is that his home run rate is higher than the rest of him. Should that account for having more than a half a win WAR than Jon Lester? I don't buy that. Johnny Cueto and David Price have the same problem and David Price leads all of baseball with his K/BB ratio.

Okay, let's look at Jason Heyward. Heyward currently sports an inglorious 78 wRC+ and a .284 wOBA. The latter figure is not one you want to be less than .320, never mind .300. A wRC+ of 100 is league average. He is 22 points less than league average. He has an OPS of .619. I am not writing this to pick on Jason Heyward. He is obviously having a tough time at the plate and doesn't need me to pile on. His .248 BABIP suggest better days are ahead.

But I point out Heyward's numbers because according to fWAR, Heyward is tied for sixteenth place among "position players" for fWAR. How can that be? Well, it seems that he has been Superman in the field. In just 37 games, Heyward is given credit for 10.9 runs of value for his defense. That accounts for about a win and two-thirds of his total 1.5 fWAR.

Just to put that in perspective, Andrelton Simmons had just about the greatest fielding season ever last year and totaled 31.6 runs of defense in his 157 games. And he is a shortstop, the most valuable position on the field (you could argue for the catcher too). Simmons' runs for defense divided by his games comes to .201 runs per game. Heyward is currently sitting at .295 runs per game for his defense.

I will not dispute that Jason Heyward is a great fielder. But that great that he has been worth more per game than Simmons was last year? Call me dubious. And that is Mr. Dubious to those I don't know.

I could be wrong, but I think I heard somewhere that shifts in the infield are not even counted by the fielding stats because they are too confusing.

Okay, one more. Jacoby Ellsbury currently sports a .339 wOBA compared to last year's .343. That is a difference of .004. Minuscule right? His wRC+ last year was 113 and it is 111 so far this year. So how come last year, his offensive runs came to .0322 runs per plate appearance and this year, they come to .0185 per plate appearance? It doesn't make sense and it affects his fWAR.

Then you look at his defense. Last year, his defense (which affects fWAR) was worth 12.0 runs for the season. He is currently sitting at -2 this season. Seriously? I know this sounds awfully close to a certain Boston Globe's writer, but I have watched every game he has played this season. He has been terrific. -2? I don't understand.

Look, I know numbers are not perfect. For an example by a good writer, check this piece out. But it's hard for me because I am not learned enough to figure out why these numbers do not make sense to me. I risk looking stupid--which really isn't a risk because I already look stupid--because something doesn't feel right to me. I sense a problem without knowing enough to know if it is or not.

MLB Game Picks - Friday: May 16, 2014

I'm so glad it is Friday. You have no idea. Work has been just beating me up silly. But the bottom line is that I am thankful to have a job. I am also thankful to get to do this every day and have for the last five years. And I am thankful even on mediocre results days like yesterday. I needed that walk-off homer by Mike Trout just to break even. And while that made me sigh in relief, it had to be a real kick in the nether regions for the Rays. What a spectacular blown save. The good news was that the Game of the Day has been correct two days in a row, but another extra-inning game went against me.

Friday's picks:

• The Cubs over the Brewers: We need to get Jeff Samardzija a win. He deserves it. He is pitching lights out and is still 0-3. It's not right. Kyle Lohse is better at home than on the road. This is just wishful thinking though.
• The Reds over the Phillies: I do see Alfredo Simon coming back to earth a bit. But I also see Kyle Kendrick at 0-3 and think the Reds have every chance to win this game with their offense.
• The Athletics over the Indians: I need to go with Sonny Gray to save the day. He's my guy. But there is method to the madness too. He has pitched well on the road. It should be a close game because Zach McAllister has been good to.
• The Yankees over the Pirates: I am not too thrilled with picking David Phelps here, but the Yankees should hit multiple homers at home against Edinson Volquez. It will be interesting.
• The Red Sox over the Tigers: Speaking of interesting, this should be lots of fun to see what happens. Jon Lester is among the leaders in fWAR for starters and has pitched very well. Max Scherzer is Max Scherzer, one of the best in baseball. Very interesting.
• The Rangers over the Blue Jays: Another really interesting game with Yu Darvish trying to hold back a very good offense. A lot will depend on if Drew Hutchison can pull it together. He has been up and down a lot this season.
• The Orioles over the Royals: I like Chris Tillman a lot more than I like Jeremy Guthrie. The pick is pretty much as simple as that.
• The Astros over the White Sox: Collin McHugh has only given up one homer in four starts. Three of those four starts have been very good. McHugh faces a White Sox team with the hottest home run hitter in Jose Abreu. It should be fun. Jose Quintana has pitched three very good games in a row with nothing to show for it.
• The Twins over the Mariners: How good has Chris Young been for the Mariners!? But can that continue? The Twins' offense has been pretty good of late. And Kyle Gibson has been solid as a starter. I'm going with the home team here.
• The Cardinals over the Braves: St. Louis fans have a term they call, "Lynning," that is a lyrical way of saying that Lance Lynn often has an inning that undoes him. If he avoids that inning, he should strikeout ten Braves on the way to a win. The Cardinals can hit Ervin Santana.
• The Rockies over the Padres: The Rockies are at home? Let the mashing begin. Jorge De La Rosa needs to pitch decently and Eric Stults should be the victim here.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Wade Miley is so hit or miss, it's hard to count on him. On the other hand, Zack Greinke is the Dodgers' good luck charm. I'm leaning that way then.
• The Angels over the Bay Rays: Jered Weaver has a noodle arm and yet simply knows how to pitch. Every time I count him for dead, he wins. Chris Archer has been a disappointment thus far. He should find a way to see every team as the Yankees and he would never lose.
• The Giants over the Marlins: This one confuses me. Yusmeiro Petit has pitched mostly in relief. He has started twice and one time was very good and one time was very bad. On the other hand, Henderson Alvarez has been very good at home and very bad on the road (just like the Marlins). That sways it for me.

And the Game of the Day

• The Nationals over the Mets: Tanner Roark has not given up an earned run at home this year and while that is subject to correction eventually, I look for him to eek out a win over Jon Niese and the Mets.

Yesterday: 5-5, May: 111-94, Games of the Day: 20-22, Season: 344-266

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: May 15, 2014

The last four full scheduled days had me on a streak of 8-7 finishes. Last night saw two games postponed because of weather and I finished 8-5. So what does that say? Would I have finished 8-7 if those two games had been played? The way it has been going, probably.

David Ortiz has hit four home runs in the last two days against the Twins. You would think the Twins would get up in his grill a little bit. At the very least, work around the guy. Congrats to Anthony DeSclafani for his first Major League win. The guy done himself proud.

Thursday's picks:

• The Reds over the Padres: This is the makeup game from yesterday. And I still think it will be a good pitchers' duel with Johnny Cueto being slightly better than Ian Kennedy.
• The Red Sox over the Twins: There are a lot of things going on here. Clay Buchholz has started the season miserably. But he was better his last time out. Phil Hughes has had a very good start to his season, but I'm not so sure he can hold off the hot Boston team.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: These two teams were rained out yesterday and that game won't be made up until the end of August. But the two pitchers from yesterday are still scheduled to start today. That said, I'll still take Michael Wacha over Jason Hammel in a close game.
• The Padres over the Reds: I could not find who was starting for the Reds today no matter where I looked. Even Twitter failed me. That said, I'll go with the Padres and Robbie Ross.
• The Indians over the Blue Jays: The Indians are playing better and the concern with the Blue Jays is always the pitching. For example, today's game will be started by J.A. Happ. Happ has an occasional good day followed usually by nine bad ones. Danny Salazar has to throw strikes and get ahead in the count against the powerful Jays' lineup.
• The Mets over the Yankees: This will be a fascinating day in Citi Field as two pitchers make their Major League debuts. I have no idea whether Jacob deGrom and his flying hair will be any better than Chase Whitley. I only pick it this way because deGrom has had more time at Triple A than Whitley.
• The Royals over the Orioles: The Royals have given the O's a handful in the last two days. And then they get the flame thrower, Yordano Ventura. Have fun with that. Wei-Yin Chen goes for the Orioles.
• The Angels over the Bay Rays: I have had good success sticking with Tyler Skaggs, so I will do so again. I like him and feel the Angels stole a good pitcher here in the off season. The Rays will start Erik Bedard. Eh.
• The Marlins over the Giants: Is Matt Cain the Giants' Sabathia? After all those innings, Cain has seemingly hit a wall. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi is throwing gas, but not always getting the results to go with it.

And the Game of the Day

• The Brewers over the Pirates: I always like to pick Yovani Gallardo at home and Wandy Rodriguez just cannot seem to get going due to injuries and rust.

Yesterday: 8-5, May: 106-89, Games of the Day: 19-22, Season: 339-261

The best and worst bullpens thus far

Measuring how a team's bullpen is doing can be tricky business. You really can't go by WAR like in other positions because, for example, the Red Sox' bullpen leads baseball in WAR. But that may be because they are pitching more innings than other teams' bullpens. The Red Sox' bullpen is actually doing extremely well, but is it the best as the WAR seems to indicate? One thing is for certain: If your team is not doing well in the bullpen, you are quite aware of that fact as it gets ugly.

So how then should we measure bullpens? We can look at FIP, which is probably better than looking at ERA. We can look at WPA. We can look at which teams have better success with inherited runners scoring. We can look at strikeout to walk ratios. We can look at a lot of different things. Let's look at the top and bottom five in each of these categories and see what we can see.

FIP

The top five teams in FIP are:

1. The Braves - 2.32
2. The Royals - 2.88
3. The Athletics - 2.93
4. The Red Sox - 2.96
5. The Padres - 3.02

The worst five teams in FIP

1. The Astros - 4.70
2. The Reds - 4.65
3. The Rays - 4.61
4. The Phillies - 4.60
5. The White Sox - 4.38

WPA

1. The Padres - 3.87
2. The Giants - 3.52
3. The Brewers - 3.35
4. The Red Sox - 2.38
5. The Braves - 1.61

The bottom five:

1. The Astros: -2.51
2. The Cubs: -2.22
3. The Marlins: -1.62
4. The Reds: -1.61
5. The Blue Jays: -1.52

Inherited Runners:

1. The Pirates - 84%
2. The Giants - 83.8%
3. The Padres - 80.7%
4. The Brewers - 79.6%
5. The Nationals - 78.6%

The worst five:

1. The Cardinals - 66.3%
2. The Tigers - 66.8%
3. The Astros - 67.5%
4. The Royals - 68.7%
5. The Rangers and Yankees: 68.8%

K/BB Ratio:

1. The Brewers: 3.53
2. The Braves: 3.47
3. The Cardinals: 3.20
4. The Giants: 3.19
5. Tigers: 3.14

The worst

1. The White Sox: 1.21
2. The Reds: 1.68
3. The Rays: 1.81
4. The Mets: 1.90
5. The Dodgers: 1.96

WAR

1. The Red Sox: 2.4
2. The Braves and Royals: 2.1
3. The Athletics 2.0
4. Two tied with 1.99

The worst:

1. The Mets: -1.3
2. The Rays: -1.0
3. The Astros and Reds: -0.7
4. The Phillies and Angels: -0.4

So have we seen any sort of patterns here? It is hard to pick on the Reds because they went most of the season thus far without Aroldis Chapman. But the worst bullpens appear to be (from appearances at the bottom of the most categories) the Mets, the Astros, the Rays and the Reds. The Yankees have made a run for the worst lately.

As for the best bullpens, thus far, the Braves, Red Sox, Padres and the Brewers appear to have the best bullpens in baseball followed closely by the A's and the Royals.

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 14, 2014

I am back on the 8-7 train again. When it comes to full schedule days, that is four straight such finishes. The Game of the Day pick was wrong again. And Stephen Strasburg lost again. And Cliff Lee lost again and the entire thing is starting to make me cranky. Oh wait. The Yankees have already made me cranky.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Tigers over the Orioles: On the Tigers' side, you have an established ace (Justin Verlander). On the Orioles' side, you have a prospective ace in Kevin Gausman. It seems more prudent to pick the established one.
• The Angels over the Phillies: My problem with this pick is that you never know what A.J. Burnett is going to do. He can be the crappiest pitcher in the world, or the best one. And that is week to week! Garrett Richards has been the bomb thus far though.
• The Royals over the Rockies: The Rockies are going to have to hit on the road someday to quiet the skeptics. This road trip, they have not--at least recently. Jason Vargas over Jhoulys Chacin.
• The Athletics over the White Sox: I usually pick against Tommy Milone, but he won last time out. I usually pick against Andre Rienzo and he hasn't lost a game yet. So one of my usual wrong picks has to be right in this one. Okay, that confused even me.
• The Mariners over the Rays: Brandon Maurer has a 1.67 WHIP. Jake Odorizzi has a 1.74 WHIP. Ugh. They are both terrible. The only recourse then is to pick the home team and rub a rabbit's foot.
• The Diamondbacks over the Nationals: Brandon McCarthy has some pretty impressive peripherals for a guy with a 1-6 record. His strikeout to walk rate is 4.5. That's very good. And his WHIP isn't bad at 1.38. But he did have a real clunker in his last outing. The problem is that Doug Fister still looked awful rusty in his first start of the year last time out.
• The Giants over the Braves: Let's be honest, I have no idea who is going to win this game. How do you pick between Madison Bumgarner and Julio Teheran if both are at the top of their game? Again, defaulting to the home team when all other logic fails.
• The Indians over the Blue Jays: Dustin McGowan has pitched pretty well in his last three starts, but I'm still not buying. I much prefer Corey Kluber here. The Blue Jays are hitting really well though.
• The Yankees over the Mets: I don't know if the Yankees are ever going to beat the Mets. But if they are, having Masahiro Tanaka on the mound is their best chance. He will be challenged by the Major League Debut of Rafael Montero and the Yankees struggle against power pitchers. Oh boy.
• The Reds over the Padres: Both Ian Kennedy and Johnny Cueto have been pitching super well. And that should continue in San Diego. But I still have more faith in Cueto and in the Reds' offense than the other way around.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: I keep picking Francisco Liriano like he is last year's version. But he isn't. He is this year's version and 2012's version and 2011's version, etc. On the other hand, Wily Peralta seems to be getting better and better.
• The Astros over the Rangers: This pick is dependent on how well Scott Feldman pitches for the Astros. I like the Astros' chances to score against Nick Tepesch in a teapot. But if Feldman isn't good, it will be a slugfest and the Rangers would hold sway.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: Maybe last night's extra-inning win put the curse away for the Cards against the Cubs.  I do like the way Jason Hammel is pitching for the Chicago team though. Michael Wacha needs to have a good night.
• The Dodgers over the Marlins: I hate to pick Paul Maholm. I really do. But I generally don't like to pick pitchers making their Major League debuts. Anthony DeSclafani is from New Jersey and pitches for Miami. That is so historically anomalous. If you were here with me, I would be doing my best New Jersey accent (I grew up there) saying, "ANTony DeSlafani, how yooo doooin?" DeSlafani has shown very good control in the minors and I like that.

And the Game of the Day

• The Red Sox over the Twins: The Red Sox pushed Felix Doubront back a day and that makes sense as he will now match up with the squishy Kevin Correia. Of course doing so meant pushing Jake Peavy ahead last night and that did not work out so well.

Yesterday: 8-7, May: 98-84, Games of the Day: 18-22, Season: 331-256

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: May 13, 2014

There are two strange sensations going on as I sit here this morning. First, the sun is shining. That is pleasantly different. Second, Monday was a good picking day, which is also pleasantly different. I only had three picks wrong. The Yankees had the lead twice and couldn't hold off the Mets. The Cubs annihilated the Cards and the Giants beat the Braves. While it would have been nice to see those coming, I will certainly take the 7-3 day and a rare Game of the Day pick success.

Tuesday's picks:

• The Tigers over the Orioles: Ubaldo Jimenez has not pitched well against the Tigers in his career. He is 5-9 with an ERA well over 5. But I'm not real high on The Emoticon, Drew Smyly either.
• The Mets over the Yankees: The Yankees can barely field a team at this point with all the players hurt. And the team does not match up well with power pitchers like Zack Wheeler. Vidal Nuno is not trustworthy. All in all, the Yankees are in trouble.
• The Indians over the Blue Jays: I think the Indians will hit R.A. Dickey. It is just a question of which Justin Masterson will show up tonight. He can be brilliant or the opposite and you never know.
• The Padres over the Reds: The Padres have most of their big bats back now and Andrew Cashner is tough. Mike Leake has his moments, but he is not as good as Cashner.
• The Twins over the Red Sox: Both of the times Ricky Nolasco pitched at home, he was very good. And Felix Doubront is hard to figure out. This is not the most comfortable pick I am making today.
• The Royals over the Rockies: I like James Shields at home and I don't much like Franklin Morales anywhere.
• The Pirates over the Brewers: Marco Estrada has actually pitched better for the Brewers on the road than at home. And Gerrit Cole just has too much big time talent for me to pick against him here.
• The Rangers over the Astros: I'm looking over my picks so far and I am uncomfortable with how many road teams I have picked. But I have to go with the road team here too. Matt Harrison is scary to depend on, but he is less scary than Dallas Keuchel.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: Oh, why the heck not. So I will keep picking them as the best team in the NL only to watch them continually lose to the Cubs and every other Tom, Dick and Harry team. Adam Wainwright over Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta.
• The Nationals over the Diamondbacks: I worry about Stephen Strasburg pitching in Arizona. But I worry even worse about Bronson Arroyo pitching there. The Nats will either be bamboozled or hit five homers.
• The Athletics over the White Sox: Alas, the bloom is off the Scott Carroll rose. I was rooting for you, buddy. Not that Drew Pomeranz instills great confidence in me, but he is making noises of finally figuring this thing out.
• The Dodgers over the Marlins: The Marlins got the worst news in the world yesterday and are not playing well on the road anyway. Jacob Turner should yield to Josh Beckett today.
• The Mariners over the Rays: David Price is hard to pick against. But if I was going to do so, it would be with him pitching against Hisashi Iwakuma. The latter just flat out knows how to pitch.
• The Giants over the Braves: Ryan Vogelsong has bounced back nicely after a rugged start to the season. He has now pitched three good games in a row. Mike Minor has not come back from the DL pitching very well.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Phillies over the Angels: It is hard to gauge how good Matt Shoemaker is by his minor league numbers. He pitched in the PCL which is notoriously hard on pitchers. If he was a lefty making his first start against the Phillies, I'd go for him. But he throws with his right hand. Thus, Cliff Lee gets the pick.

Yesterday: 7-3, May: 90-75, Games of the Day: 18-21, Season: 323-249