No Pujols. No La Russa. No problem

The St. Louis Cardinals begin their defense of their world championship today in Miami against the new-look Marlins. The team comes into the season minus Albert Pujols who could not resist the carrot dangled by Arte Moreno. Tony La Russa has retired as manager after being an institution in St. Louis and the author of two championships. Those two losses would seem grim for just about anyone but the Cardinals. This seems to be a resilient and upbeat bunch and their new manager, Mike Matheny is home grown and could have the easiest ride of any new manager in quite some time.

Not that the Cardinals 2012 season will be easy. The Brewers are still a potent team and the Reds have lots of talent as well. But the Cardinals should be fine. They still have the best catcher in baseball. Adam Wainwright is back. And the team has a battle-tested bullpen that wowed the world last October. What's not to love about where this team is going into the new season?

Yes, they lost Albert Pujols. It's hard to think about the Cardinals without him. For ten years, he has been the best player on the planet. But he was not without a certain amount of baggage. Pujols had an enigmatic persona and was treated differently than other players. At times, it seemed as if his teammates had to tip-toe around him. His leadership skills were questionable for a player of his stature. He failed to hustle on ground balls and we can never forget how he skipped out on reporters in the playoffs leaving his teammates to hold the bag without him. It is possible that a Cardinal team without Pujols could be more cohesive and have a whole lot more fun, especially with Lance Berkman around to lead the comedy troupe.

Speaking of Berkman, his 2011 season was one of the biggest stories of last season. His performance was breathtaking despite being misplaced in right field. He has always been a better than average first baseman and the Cardinals will not lose anything defensively from having him at first base. If he hits like last season, then Pujols' numbers from last season are covered.

Carlos Beltran was a perfect signing. Yes, we will have to see how it all turns out, but on paper, it is perfect. He will be a win better as a right fielder than Berkman was and his offensive production combined with a bounce-back season from Matt Holliday would offset any lingering wins lost by losing Pujols. This space is not a big fan of John Jay in center. But he has his moments at the plate and gives the team more consistency than what they had in the past. Look for this position to be in transition during the season though.

Despite his struggles this spring and his track record the past two seasons, Rafael Furcal is a huge upgrade starting the season than where the Cardinals were a season ago. If he mans his position effectively, the Cardinals should continue to cover any lack he provides on offense. Second base is also a transition as Daniel Descalso has been handed the starting position. There are many who feel that Tyler Greene can be a top notch infielder and made the team as a backup if Descalso falters. Descalso displayed terrific patience at the plate this spring and that could be a big factor during the season.

David Freese has had a tough spring and Cardinal fans will always hold their breath concerning his health. But the thought here is that the post season and his heroics therein should fill him to the brim with confidence and allow him to become one of the best third basemen in the National League. If he does not make the All Star team this season, it would be a huge surprise.

The Allen Craig injury is a problem and is unfortunate. He really does have the makings of a star and if he returns mid-season, it could be like making a huge trade deadline deal.

Chris Carpenter starts the season on the disabled list and that's a problem. His bulging neck leaves his season in uncertain status. To see he and Wainwright again anchoring the rotation would make the team's prospects that much brighter. But this could be an opportunity for the Cardinals. Carpenter is getting up there in years and won't be around that much longer anyway. This could give guys like Lance Lynn an opportunity to become the next great starting pitcher in the league.

Jaime Garcia does not bring a level of comfort. Watching him perform has never induced a wow factor here. And Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook are just serviceable pitchers who eat innings and keep the team in most of the games they pitch. As long as the rotation can keep the game close, the offense and deep and talented bullpen should win their share of games.

It seems hard to imagine that a team can lose a Hall of Fame manager and the best player of his generation and still be the team to beat in their division. Yet, they are. They have an intelligent and capable coaching staff, a general manager now out of La Russa's shadow and contention and a still potent and talented team. They are the world champions until they are not. And the NL Central will have to prove the St. Louis Cardinals are not every bit as scary as they were a season ago.

Game Picks - Wednesday: April 4, 2012

The 2012 MLB season is starting like a dwarf-gathering at Bilbo Baggins' door. A couple of dwarfs show up in Japan and then another one in Miami, a few more on Thursday and a few more on Friday before all dwarfs are in the sitting room by Saturday. It's a heck of a tease and frankly, it is an unwelcome way to start a season. In this mind, Opening Day should be this nationwide party celebrated all over baseball on the same day and in the same way. And Opening Day should never include night games. And why would there be twelve teams playing on Thursday that do not play again until Saturday? Opening Day should be a grand event and we should all celebrate it together. 

Okay, rant over. There is a game to pick. The St. Louis Cardinals play a one game series with the Miami Marlins who officially start their home season in their new ballpark. Why the Cardinals? And why one game? Who knows. It's not because the Cardinals are the World Series champs. This schedule was dreamed (spell check is saying that "dreamt" is not a word. Pshaw.) up long before the outcome of the Fall Classic (which is really the winter classic if you live in Maine).

Well, it was thought the rant was over. Perhaps now it is as there is still a game to pick. So come on then, pick it, William. 

• The Marlins over the Cardinals: Opening Day is when each team puts out its Number One starter. The Marlins are going with Josh Johnson. Okay. That sounds fine. The Cardinals are going with Kyle Lohse. Kyle Lohse!? Well, yeah, Carpenter is a pain in the neck. What? Oh. He has a pain in the neck. Wainwright missed all of last season. So what he did before doesn't count. ?? Soooo...The Marlins open the Fish Tank with a win. Logan Morrison deposits a drive into the seats to set the Home Run Machine spinning and the world champs start 0-1.

Bob Netherton will be happy. He has the psychotic notion that picking against the Cardinals in this space is like some reverse luck thing. Actually, it's just another pick. Interpret as you see fit.

Season: 1-1

Curt Schilling undercuts Valentine

Curt Schilling has become one of the most bombastic former players ever. The former pitcher seems intent on flapping his gums and being as controversial as possible. He has become the Rush Limbaugh of ex-players. And that is just fine. It is a free country and people can say what they want. But what he recently said about his former team and the Red Sox' new manager went over the line. After all, he is only five years removed from that team and some of his former teammates still play there. Schilling just made himself the bad shoulder angel in the heads of some of his former teammates. He has thrown Bobby Valentine under the bus before the bus can even leave the parking lot.

Let's pick apart some of Schilling's statements. First, he said that baseball has changed and the manager has little to do with what happens on the field during a game. He calls them babysitters who manage personnel. Oh really? So it matters not whether a manager lets a pitcher continue when struggling? It matters not if a manager pinch hits for somebody based on match ups? This is the ultimate deconstructionism. This is a former player stating that only players matter during the outcomes of games. This is ego talking. While it is true that players will make a manager successful or unsuccessful, it does matter what decisions a manager makes during a game.

And it goes further than that. Schilling is basically stating that a manager has no effect on the team's psychology. In Schilling's world, the manager cannot "fire up" his team or make the players feel better about themselves. The manager cannot encourage his players or keep them going through hard times. All the manager does in Schilling's world is babysit players. How disrespectful can you be? In Schilling's world, player accountability is only the responsibility of the players.

Schilling goes on to state that the small details do not matter anymore and that Valentine lives in the small details. Again: Oh really? There might be just a game or two difference between four teams in the American League East. Wouldn't doing something fundamentally correct at just the right moment account for a win here or there? Couldn't that one win mean the world of difference? The Red Sox lost out on the playoffs last year by a single game. Little things do matter. 

Schilling's remarks conclude that he believes the Red Sox have created an oil and water situation between the manager and his players. How can you say that before Valentine's tenure even begins? And how did the oil and oil situation work out for the Red Sox last season? What Schilling's statements have created is the opportunity for doubt in the minds of the Red Sox players. This is a guy they used to play beside. His words resonate to those teammates. If just one of these players develops a little doubt in the back of any of the players minds, Schilling has done a great disservice here to his former team.

Schilling is trying to keep himself relevant since his career ended. The former pitcher likes to be the story. As such, he enjoys making large statements that get a lot of coverage and attention. Bobby Valentine's tenure as the manager of the Red Sox will only be evaluated after the fact. That tenure does not even begin until later this week. Undercutting Bobby Valentine before the season even begins in unfair and uncalled for. Can we at least see how the season unfolds before we start criticizing Bobby Valentine?

Is Michael Young the next Paul Molitor?

Michael Young was a fashionable pinata after the 2010 season. The Texas Rangers had just signed Adrian Beltre to play third and Mike Napoli to split time between catching and first base. Michael Young was going to be the designated hitter. Michael Young was not happy and requested a trade. He was skewered by this space and by others around the Web. After his 2011 season, nobody is laughing now. Sure, Young still makes a lot of money from an ill-advised contract. Sure, you really should not give him a glove. But boy, the guy handled the transition after his initial pout and quietly put up a monster offensive season. It was a season that rivaled the 34 year old season of a Hall of Fame designated hitter, Paul Molitor.

Molitor, like Young, had a difficult season at age 33. But both came back with a vengeance at age 34. Compare the numbers:

• Molitor (1991 - Twins): .325/.399/.489 .888 OPS. 752 plate appearances. 216 hits
• Young (2011 - Rangers): .338/.380/.474  .854 OPS. 689 plate appearances. 213 hits

Pretty similar seasons, eh? Molitor continued on a tear for several more seasons. He played seven more seasons after his age 34 season and collected 1,233 more hits to cement his Hall of Fame ticket. While not predicting Michael Young as an eventual Hall of Fame candidate, the two players were at a similar crossroad before their age 34 season. Molitor was a designated hitter long before Young in his career. But Molitor had never had quite a season like his age 34 season before. He famously shortened his swing and well, he just went crazy. 

Are we seeing a similar life change for Michael Young? It's possible. Young cut his strikeout rate from 16 percent in 2010 to 11.3 percent in 2011. Paul Molitor struck out less than Young and walked more. Molitor had a slightly higher career wOBA and wRC+. And Molitor played in an era that was less of an offensive era. Thus, his OPS+ was higher than Young's. But their age 34 seasons seem otherwise to be so strikingly familiar. And Young is creaming the ball again this spring training. So again, is Michael Young the next Paul Molitor?

One last comparison for you. After Molitor's age 34 season, he had compiled 2,086 hits. Michael Young after his age 34 season now has 2,061 hits. Who is to say that Young can duplicate Molitor's amazing 1,233 hits after his age 34 season. But who is to say he can't? 

The Crystal Ball tells all for 2012

For several years now, this site has featured a prediction post. Heck, everyone does that. But unlike most sites that base theirs on baseball smarts, spreadsheets, simulations and math skills, this one relies on the mysterious crystal ball that has long been a family heirloom. Legend has it that the dome came with this author's grandfather from Sicily and that he almost didn't get it by customs and only did so by stating through and interpreter that it was a paperweight. This post almost could not be written. The artifact had to be retrieved from the pawn shop. It's been that kind of year. Luckily, nobody wanted such a gaudy paperweight and it was available for repurchase.

Last year's post was long forgotten. And so a quick search for it this morning was successful and some of the findings were sort of amazing. Sure, there was some things that did not come to pass, but credit that to the gazer into that sphere and not the crystal ball itself. Human eyes can misinterpret, but that doesn't mean the thing is fallible. Some of the amazing readings:

• Pablo Sandoval's resurgence was predicted correctly.
• Predicted Ichiro Suzuki would not reach 200 hits and the team would still score more runs. He didn't. They did.
• Albert Pujols would leave the Cardinals after the season. He did.
• That Jose Bautista's 2010 season wasn't a fluke. It wasn't.
• Jim Hendry would be fired. He was.
• The Padres would sink back to last place. They did.
• Scott Rolen wouldn't be a factor for the Reds. He wasn't.
• Eric Hosmer would be the first big time rookie to get the call. He was.
• Jose Reyes would outhit David Wright. He did. It seems a given now, but not before the 2011 season.
• Jordan Zimmerman would have a breakout season. He did.
• Elvis Andrus would hit a homer after going homer-less in 2010. He did.
• John Mayberry Jr. would get more playing time than Ben Francisco. He did.
• Roy Oswalt would get hurt. He did.
• J.J. Hardy would be one of the best shortstops in the AL. He was.
• Bartolo Colon would be the Yankees' fifth starter. He was. 
• Defense would betray the Twins. Uh, yeah. Among other things.
• Russell Martin would return to being one of the best catchers in baseball. He did.

So, yeah, there were some goodies in there. And so it is time to once again gaze into the crystal ball and see what it tells us. Breakfast was avoided so perhaps the gazer will interpret the signs a little more clearly. Here we go:

In 2012:

• Matt Holliday will hit 30 homers and drive in over a hundred runs and make people forget all about the moth in his ear.
• Carlos Zambrano will in 16 games for the Miami Marlins and will be nothing but happy.
• The season will start and some time in May, Michael Pineda will make his first start and get the win and go on to win 12 games.
• The Milwaukee Brewers will win the NL Central and ask, "Prince who?" But they will still get beat in the playoffs by the Cardinals who again get in as the wildcard.
• Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy will again win more than 16 games each.
• Joe Mauer has a nice comeback along with Buster Posey and both will be on the All Star squads.
• Josh Johnson will pitch all season and contend for the Cy Young Award.
• But the NL Cy Young again goes to Clayton Kershaw.
• The AL Cy Young Award will be won by Yu Darvish who also wins the AL Rookie of the Year Award.
• Despite Albert Pujols, the Texas Rangers win the AL West over the Angels.
• Hanley Ramirez will win the NL MVP Award and the Marlins win the NL East.
• Both Alex Rodriguez and Kevin Youkilis will play more than 130 games and put up good numbers.
• Pitching will keep the Red Sox out of the playoffs again and the press will skewer Bobby Valentine.
• The Astros and the Athletics will lose 100 games. The White Sox and Twins lose 90+.
• Bryce Harper will be in the majors by the All Star Game.
• Ichiro Suzuki will bat over .300 again after batting in the .270s last year.
• Miguel Cabrera will be the AL starter at third base in the All Star game. Both he and Prince Fielder hit 30+ homers.
• Brian Matusz will have a very good season. But the Orioles will still lose 90 games.
• Troy Tulowitzki will win the NL MVP.
• Albert Pujols will hit 40 homers and have a great season. But is beaten out for MVP by Miguel Cabrera.
• Jered Weaver will have a disappointing season.
• At least one umpire will ask Josh Beckett to pick up the pace of his pitching prompting Bobby Valentine to be tossed from the game.
• A.J. Burnett has a nice season for the Pirates.
• Tampa Bay's offense will keep them from the playoffs and finish behind the Toronto Blue Jays who gain a wild card berth.
• Juan Pierre will get 400 at bats for the Phillies.
• Jim Thome or Jason Giambi will be traded to the Yankees at the trade deadline.
• Daisuke Matsuzaka will pitch for the Red Sox after the All Star break, will pitch well and still the Red Sox fans will hate him.
• Mariano Rivera will have one last sparkling season and then retire.
• Terry Francona will draw raves for his work on Sunday Night Baseball and Orel Hershiser won't be happy.
• Jonathan Papelbon will save 40 games for the Phillies.
• Chase Utley will run off to Europe to see A-Rod's doctor.
• Brett Gardner will fail to hit above .255.
• Alex Gordon will confirm that he is the next superstar and put up tasty numbers along with Eric Hosmer. The Royals don't have enough pitching though and it won't be enough.
• Dee Gordon wins the NL Rookie of the Year and the Dodgers will be surprisingly good this season.
• Zack Greinke finishes second in NL Cy Young Award voting.
• C.J. Wilson will be the best pitcher for the Angels and have a better year than Weaver and Haren.
• Madison Bumgarner will be the only Giants' pitcher on the All Star team and will be that team's best pitcher.
• Francisco Liriano will have a good year. Rod Gardenhire will not.
• Cory Luebke and Tim Stauffer have excellent seasons and push the Padres over .500.
• The Diamondbacks repeat as NL West champions and will represent the NL in the World Series.
• Kyle Weiland will be the next Astro after Jeff Bagwell for the Red Sox fans to say a good one got away.
• This will be the year that Luke Hochevar puts it together.
• Scott Feldman is in the Rangers' rotation by mid-season. Or perhaps in someone else's rotation by the trade deadline.
• Johan Santana wins thirteen games and wins Comeback Player of the Year.
• Russell Branyan will hit at least one homer as a Yankee.
• Brandon Morrow wins at least seventeen games for the Blue Jays.
• Justin Verlander will win eighteen games.
• Yoenis Cespedes will finish with 20 homers, a .260 batting average and over a hundred strikeouts.
• Curtis Granderson will hit 35 more homers for the Yankees.
• And finally...yes...the Yankees will win the World Series.

So Juan Pierre has made the Phillies

Juan Pierre evokes a lot of strong opinions from people. In an age of statistical data and the prominence of those who interpret that data, Pierre has often been the fodder of conversation. And thus, when he signed a minor league contract before the season with the Philadelphia Phillies, that conversation intensified. Now, he has made the team's opening day roster. Whoo boy. Let the fun begin. 

As has been written in this space before, Juan Pierre is a statistical toy. Nobody in baseball has struck out less than Juan Pierre. Nobody in the game has had more bunt base hits. Nobody else in the game has stolen more bases while not being particularly good at it than Juan Pierre. Pierre has racked up over 700 plate appearances the last two seasons. For all that playing time, Baseball-reference.com has given him the grand total of 1.8 rWAR over the past two seasons combined (1.8 rWAR in 2010 and 0 in 2011). Fangraphs rated him higher in 2010 at 2.9 but lower last year at -0.4 fWAR.

It is obvious in the linked piece from ESPN.com that his new manager loves Juan Pierre. But how will he use him? Pierre played every game of every season from 2003 to 2007, three years with the Marlins, a year with the Cubs and then a year with the Dodgers. In 2008 with the Dodgers, he ran into the Manny Ramirez euphoria and lost some playing team to that phenomenon for 2008 and 2009. The stories at the time indicated he wasn't happy about it. Then he played nearly every game for the White Sox for the past two seasons. Will he be content to be a role player?

As a role player, Pierre is probably a better choice than Scott Podsednik who was his chief rival this spring for a job. While the Phillies wait for the return of Ryan Howard, Pierre can take some turns in left if John Mayberry, Jr. plays first. But Ty Wigginton also plays first and will get some playing time. That forces the Phillies to use Mayberry in left if they want him in the lineup. And then what happens when Ryan comes back?

In the grand scheme of things, will Juan Pierre get more than 200 plate appearances? This will be fascinating to watch, won't it? If Pierre does get more than 200 plate appearances, how effective will he be? What if he gets 400 plate appearances? Would that be a bad thing for the Phillies?

The thought here is that Juan Pierre is a useful player. He is a good base runner (base stealing aside), puts the ball in play and other than a terrible throwing arm, can't hurt you too much in left where he should be adequate when he plays. But the thought is also here that Pierre's best usage would be as a part-time player with a limited role. If he gets significant playing time, that won't bode well for the Phillies' offense as a whole. His $800,000 contract with incentives is a far cry from what he's been paid in the past and makes this an attractive equation for the Phillies. The real question is whether Juan Pierre can accept his new status when he has four or five more years left in his career.

BBA Linkfest - General Anticipation

Real baseball has started. And stopped. Our odd two-game series in Japan is over and done with and we are back to fluff baseball for another week. The anticipation for the regular season is driving our writers in the General Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. Let's get this show on the road, baseball! Like every Thursday, here are links from around the Chapter. Give a click, would you? And thanks for the support you show our writers.

Let's start with our newest chapter member, Full Spectrum Baseball. The site is new and terrific but the founders have been long-time BBA members for other incarnations and most of the writers too. Terrific site! Dennis Lawson is impressed with the Detroit Tigers' offense.

Griffin Phelps of The Golden Sombrero is as unimpressed as the Fan with baseball starting its season in Japan.

The Grubby Glove site has moved. You definitely need to follow this writer because the writing is terrific. So once you click this link about the Tom Seaver 1977 Topps baseball card, bookmark the site!

The Hall of Very Good has a great post this week about all the milestones Alex Rodriguez could surpass this season. 

Hot Corner Harbor has another great quiz for us this week. Click the link and then click the link.

Left Field has started a new project and like Brian Cashman on Michael Pineda, the site's author is already trying to lower our expectations. You WILL finish this and you WILL dazzle us. Got it?

Michael Schwartze is taking us on a tour of each division and the rookies on each team to watch. Cool stuff on MLB Dirt.

Chuck Booth of MLB Reports is looking for the Detroit Tigers to bring home a World Series trophy this season.

Nik of Niktig's Baseball Blog has a review this week of Out of the Park Baseball 13. Must read for you gamers.

MTD has a scouting report for the Lake Elsinore Storm minor league baseball team. Knowing MTD, you might guess the famous athlete's name. Off Base Percentage.

Old Time Family Baseball gives us four signs that baseball is back.

The Platoon Advantage bounced on a Rob Neyer question about ground ball pitchers and gave us cool graphs and stuff. 

Replacement Level Baseball Blog beats ESPN to the punch to list its Top 100 baseball players. Great post.

Sully of Sully Baseball riffs on the magical new happenings to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In anticipation of the 2012 draft, Dan Kirby of Through the Fence Baseball previews five college baseball players on the rise.

The post of the week and the post of the month goes to Mike Damergis of the X-Log as he interviewed Sparky Lyle. Now how extra cool is THAT!?

Eugene Tierney's output on 85% Sports has been amazing of late as he previews teams. His latest is on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Sooze of Babes Love Baseball will miss Chipper Jones. Same here.

In a post that is generous in spirit and in content, Stevo-Sama gives us his top favorite 11 baseball podcasts so far this spring. Super stuff at The Baseball Enthusiast. 

Baseball Unrated has its own take on the purchase of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Aaron Somers has had a great week of content at his Blogging From the Bleachers site. Check out his preview of the AL West.

Speaking of tons of content, Call to the Pen never disappoints. Here Justin Hunter previews the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Mario Salvini of Che Palle! rhapsodizes about a Jayson Werth home run.

Matt Whitener is optimistic for the Dodgers in his piece at Cheap.Seats.Please. Also check out his division previews. 

This must be the week for glorious old relievers. First Sparky Lyle and now Dizzy Valance of Crum-Bum Beat has his picture taken with Rollie Fingers.

Continuing a great series, TheNaturalMevs makes another bold prediction for 2012. This one concerns the Cincinnati Reds. Diamond Hoggers.

For Dugout 24, the magic is back at Dodgers Stadium.

The OCP delivers a terrific and meaty primer at For Baseball Junkies on his approach to drafting a fantasy baseball team.

And last, but not least, The Baseball Index leaves us with a post about the key players for each team in the NL West.

Have a great week everyone.

What Two Billion Dollars Will Buy

Los Angeles Dodgers fans and all baseball fans are sighing with relief that the team has new owners (subject to league approval which is still pending). No one will be sad to see the Frank McCourt era come to an end. Unfortunately, that dandy dandelion will still end up smelling like a rose as Guggenheim Baseball Management LLC won the ownership sweepstakes with a whopping sale price of two billion dollars. The words do not emphasize this price enough. How about if it is typed out this way: $2,000,000,000? Holy smokes.

The price tag has the same jaw-dropping effect as that HGTV show, "Million Dollar Rooms." On the one hand, such extravagant spending seems like an elitist and selfish thing when so many people in this country have to choose between gas in their vehicles and food on the table. But on the other hand, these ultra-rich folks put people to work and buy from businesses that benefit from such extravagance. Even so, the amount of money this represents is beyond comprehension. Two. Billion. Dollars.

To aid in an understanding of how much money this is, let's do a little exercise called, "What two billion dollars could buy." In other words, if you had $2 billion to spend, you could buy:

• 31,661 Cadillac Escalades
• 63,201 Chevy Volts
• 2,072,539 full 250 gallon tanks of fuel oil or 522,193,211 gallons of fuel oil. That would keep you warm for a while.
• 133,333 71-inch plasma televisions at $15,000 a pop.
• 57,133 wind turbine systems. That might be enough to take a tenth of the Maine households off the electric grid.
• 500 million loaves of bread.
• 33,333 employees at $60,000 a year.
• 25,000 average priced homes in Aroostook County, Maine.
• 25,000,000 pairs of designer blue jeans.
• 123,992,560 copies of Dirk Heyhurst's latest book.
• 113,122 premium-seat Yankee season tickets.
• 1,666,667 top of the line refrigerators.
• 33,333,333 dozen roses - red.
• 501,253,132 songs on iTunes.
• 714,541 John Deere D170 riding mowers.
• 80 seasons of Albert Pujols at $25 million a season.
• 3 Houston Astros teams.
• 4,273,504 Acer 17.3 inch laptop computers at Walmart.
• 41,666,667 cases of paper at Staples.
• 1 southern California-based baseball team.

That, friends, is a lot of clams.

Game Picks - Thursday: March 29, 2012

The Game Picks season started with a win and though it took three cups of coffee and a couple of aspirin, that 6:10 in the morning game start was worth the early wake up time. For a first game of the season, that was pretty exciting, was it not? Ichiro got all down with his home self. Dustin Ackley was the run producer. Yoenis Cespedes got his first major league hit and Felix Hernandez and Brandon McCarthy did themselves proud. 

The second game of this unusual series starts at five o'clock in the morning eastern time. There's no way that's going to happen no matter how much coffee is available. Which is too bad because then we are back to only exhibition baseball until next Friday. Mr. Selig, this is a bit stupid. Whatever, there is still a game to pick. And it won't be easy.

The pick:

• The Mariners over the Athletics: How can you pick this game? Bartolo Colon pitches for the A's and yes, he had a surprising season last year as he went to Dr. Frankenstein and somehow had his arm rebuilt. But the guy has only pitched six innings all spring. Six. What will he last? Four innings? Five? He will throw strikes and probably all fastballs. And that may be a bad thing against a young hitting team like Seattle. But what about Seattle's starter? Jason Vargas has been creamed this spring. How bad has he been? How about 1.85 WHIP bad. The final breakdown works like this: You can't trust Colon and you can't trust Vargas. But, believe it or not, the Mariners have one or two weapons more on offense than the A's have. After Weeks and Cespedes, what is there? This is Ichiro's series. He is the rock star here. So that is the pick.

Yesterday: 1-0

Season: 1-0

Working on a change-up

There was great glee and mirth this spring when Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk took an oft-heard phrase heard every spring ("In the best shape of his life") and made it legendary. The reason his series was so hysterical is because it played off of one of those cliches that are so common in baseball. After watching a couple of dozen spring baseball games, another cliche kept popping up. It was the old, "Pitcher X is working on a change-up." The interesting thing about all of this is that most pitchers go through several years in the minor leagues before making it to the big leagues. Either the pitchers didn't learn much in the minors or baseball writers really need something to write about every day. The latter is probably the closest to the truth.

To test this theory, a Google search was performed and sure enough, there are quite a few stories about pitchers working on their change-ups this spring. The search also pointed out that people have no idea of how to type the pitch. There are, "change ups," and "changeups," and "change-ups." The correct spelling is one of those mysteries in life like, "e-mail/email," and "interleague/inter-league/Interleague/Inter-league. But anyway, back to the search. These were just the ones that the search found. For every city paper, there must be dozens more. Here they are:

• Josh Becket is working on a change-up. 
• Phil Hughes is working on a change-up. And we apparently needed a reminder based on the title.
• Michael Pineda is working on a change-up. It's a new change-up.
• Vance Worley is working on a change-up.
• Bud Black thinks Cory Luebke has to throw more change-ups.
• Sergio Santos had to miss quite a few spring games to work on his change-up.
• Jonathan Niese has added a change-up.
• Ervin Santana is working on a change-up.
• Clay Buchholz worked on his change-up.
• Daniel Schlereth is working on a change-up. Only one sentence in this post. Cheap. A similar one sentence post is found here.
• Jordan Walden is working on a change-up.
• Aroldis Chapman is working on a change-up.
• Mike Leake is working on his change-up.
• Ivan Nova is trying to perfect his change-up. That's a new wrinkle.
• Dustin Moseley is working on his change-up.
• James Paxton is working on a change-up.
• James McDonald is trying to get a feel for a change-up. Another new wrinkle.
• Craig Kimbrel is working on a change-up. Apparently, these stories are fantasy sports fillers.
• Luke Hochevar has a new change-up.
• Antonio Bastardo is trying to improve his change-up.
• Yovani Gallardo likes his new change-up.

By now you've gotten the idea. And if you haven't had enough, there's always the movie, The Change-Up that was just released for home viewing. So you can work on your change-up too.

Game Picks - Wednesday: March 28, 2012

Wow! This crept up all of the sudden! Real baseball gets played tomorrow: Honest to goodness, Major League Baseball. As such, it's time to fire up the old Game Picks feature that has been dormant since the end of the Cardinals' victory in Game Seven of the World Series. For those of you new to the site, every single day of the MLB season features a Game Picks post predicting the outcome of each game. Your host has not missed a single game in two and a half years. Just to be clear, this isn't a gambling feature. There is no over/under, no odds. Just a prediction of the outcome of each game. The game picker's score will be tallied daily, weekly, monthly and for the season. Tomorrow's game between the Oakland Athletics and the Seattle Mariners will take place at 6:10 AM eastern time (in Japan!) and thus the pick has to be logged tonight. Normally they appear first thing in the morning.

And the first game pick of the 2012 MLB season is:

• The Mariners over the Athletics: Yes, everyone is going to want to see what Yeonis Cespedes does. Yes, Brandon McCarthy is a magazine cover boy and a student of the game. Yes, McCarthy throws a lot of ground balls. Yes, his wife is pretty. Yes, Moneyball was nominated for an Oscar. Buuuutttt. Felix Hernandez didn't lose to the Athletics all last season. That has to be the pick. Now Thursday's game might be a different story.

Of course, this will be a lot more fun when there are fifteen games to pick and not just one. But we work with what we have. So there it is! The first Game Pick of the 2012 season. How cool is that? 

Happy baseball.

Baffled by Boston's pitching

There is no doubt that the Boston Red Sox will put runs on the board. The question at this point is if they can prevent enough runs to go along with that offense. The defense will do their part of that equation with terrific fielding at first, second, center and catching. But can this pitching staff get enough outs? The rotation is unsettled at this point and the bullpen was seriously weakened by the loss of Jonathan Papelbon. Can the Red Sox pull all this together in 2012? Let's take a look.

How this Red Sox staff finished last September is hard to erase and equally hard to temper perceptions the terrible ending left in our minds. It hasn't helped that those pitchers who have returned this spring are struggling during Spring Training. Your two rocks at the top of this pitching rotation are supposed to be Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. The two were horrid down the final stretch and had to endure the unfortunate backlash and soap opera that followed. 

But Josh Beckett is doing just fine this spring and despite a difficult finish, seems every bit the pitcher he was during his 2007 and 2008 seasons. His peripherals last season were very close to those seasons except for slightly elevated walk and home run rates. But the home run rates were so much better than 2009 and 2010, that they shouldn't be considered a problem. Beckett almost got back to 200 innings last season and there seems no hindrance to him reaching that plateau this season. Beckett seems to be the least of the worries here.

Jon Lester, on the other hand, not only had a terrible September but is struggling this spring. Last season showed his highest FIP of his young career, a slightly elevated home run rate and he struck out one less batter per nine innings than he had the two seasons prior. His fastball dipped one MPH last season below the two seasons before. Lester apparently throws less true fastballs these days and more cutters. Has that made a difference? Pitch/FX also shows that his curve and change were not nearly as effective as in previous seasons.

Those latter two pitches are "feel" pitches and could be improved upon in 2012. But perhaps if Lester has lost a little arm speed, then those pitches do not play as well off his fastball as they did before. Jon Lester is a terrific talent and there is no reason to believe he can't have a good season. But the trends are worrisome.

A large key for the Red Sox and their rotation is how well Clay Buchholz returns after an injury-filled season in 2011. The Red Sox have to hope that Buchholz can get back to where he was in 2010 and that the 1.5 MPH loss in velocity last season were the result of his back problems. His home run rate became more elevated last season and he's continued that trend into Spring Training. Buchholz at his best, is a ground ball pitcher. If he can return to the pitcher the Red Sox had in 2010, then that would go a long way into easing their minds this coming season. 

At their best, that's a great top three. But what comes next? The Red Sox have to decide if the Daniel Bard experiment goes forward, or if Alfredo Aceves gets a rotation spot, and if they want to commit a fifth spot to young Felix Doubront who has been terrific this spring. Doubront has done nothing but earn one of those spots. But will he hold up once the season starts?

Daniel Bard isn't trending well. He collapsed in the bullpen in September. And that trend has continued this spring. To put it mildly, his starts have not gone well. He has walked thirteen batters in 18.2 innings this spring and his WHIP sits at 1.61. Apparently, his spot in the rotation is a bit of a disagreement between his manager, Bobby Valentine and the general manager. Bard has an amazing arm and you've gone this far with the experiment. But at some point, you have to decide which way it is going to go. From this perspective, you have to at least give him the beginning of the season to give it a go. It would not be fair to the pitcher to do otherwise.

The other side of the disagreement is Alfredo Aceves. After having watched Aceves most of his career, the observation here is that he is better off in the bullpen. Aceves is a "touch" pitcher who can be brilliant when he is on and extremely ugly when he is not. The ugly side has reared its head most of the spring. The best use of Aceves is for him to be the swing guy who can do it all, just like last season. Heck, Aceves might not be happy with that outcome, but hey, what can you do. 

Aaron Cook is a wild card in these discussions. Cook is an experienced pitcher who has lost most of his fastball, but has looked good this spring. He's an extreme ground ball pitcher which plays well with this defense and at Fenway Park. Cook would have to be a real long shot at this point despite how well he's pitched this spring. But in the long run, it might not be bad for the Red Sox to put Bard and Aceves in the bullpen and give a spot to Cook. It won't happen, but it's a thought.

Say what you will about Jonathan Papelbon, but the guy was darned effective and probably the second best closer in baseball since 2007. Replacing him will not be easy and the observation here is that Andrew Bailey is not that guy. Bailey can be fragile and his stuff is not overpowering in the same way as Papelbon's was. Frankly, Papelbon put more fear into you than Bailey ever will. Mark Melancon was a nice addition, but he's not what Bard was when Bard was at the top of his game. The bullpen gets questionable after that.

Michael Bowden has all the tools but is unproven. Franklin Morales can be the best lefty the Red Sox have had in years if he stays healthy, but the track record for that is iffy. Matt Albers was a mirage for most of last season until luck caught up with him. Andrew Miller gives no long-term comfort. His health has always been a question as we have seen again this spring. Junichi Tazawa has opened a few eyes and might be useful as the season progresses.

So where are we here? Best case scenario is that the trio of Beckett, Lester and Buchholz pitch like they can all season. One of the next two rotation slots have to work out and at this point, that seems muddy at best. The bullpen is weakened without Papelbon at the back end and without either Bard and Aceves to get to Bailey. Pitching will be the difference between whether this is a playoff team or if they miss out like last year. Mr. Valentine will have to make the right decisions and they are the most important ones he makes all season.

Queasy about Cleveland's pitching

The Cleveland Indians made a nice early run in 2011. After flying out of the gate with an 18-8 record in April, the team sat on a 32-20 record by the end of May. The team was in first place until June 10 and stayed among the division leaders and even grabbed it by a game as late as July 22. Their big play at the trade deadline for Ubaldo Jimenez did not pan out as they hoped and the team played sub-.500 baseball from June through the end of the season. The Tigers zoomed past them and never looked back. Given Ubaldo's track record, you could perhaps think that his 2011 season was a blip. But a poor spring and rumors of his attitude and diminished radar gun readings make you wonder. And he isn't the only pitcher suspect this spring. Of course, spring baseball doesn't count and we can't read too much into it. Plus, the team plays its spring games in Arizona where the balls fly without much hindrance. How much concern should there be?

The Indians' best pitcher this spring has been newcomer, Derek Lowe. Lowe is trying himself to overcome one of his worst seasons ever last season with the Braves. So his spring success is encouraging. But every other projected starter has struggled this spring. Well, check that. Jeanmar Gomez has had a terrific spring. But is he really their fifth starter? Perhaps. Gomez has only started once this spring in his four appearances while guys like Josh Tomlin, Kevin Slowey, Jimenez and David Huff have started four or five games each. Lowe has had success in his career and Jimenez is still considered a great arm. But do the rest of those rotation options give us any kind of optimism. Not really.

After looking at the Baseball Prospectus depth chart for the team, the projections are not appetizing. Justin Masterson should be better than the 3.99 ERA BP projects for him and better than the 1.7 WARP that sight predicts. Take the upside there. But BP's projection for Ubaldo Jimenez comes in with an ERA of 3.47 and a WARP of 2.8. Judging on the last year, you'd have to take those numbers with a grain of salt. The Indians would be thrilled with that Ubaldo. Don't count on them.

Derek Lowe is projected poorly, most likely based on last season and moving from the National League to the American League. His projection of a 4.62 ERA and a measly 0.2 WARP are very pessimistic. Lowe should have a decent season left in him and beat those numbers.

Josh Tomlin is projected for a 4.17 ERA with a WARP of 1.1. The former seems optimistic and the latter perhaps a bit pessimistic. His sinker is a good one but it all depends on his balls in play. The expectation here is an ERA closer to the 4.50 mark. He'll have his fair share of good outings though. 

BP's projections for Jeanmar Gomez and David Huff are gruesome to look at. Both are projected with negative WARPs. It's hard to argue with either projection. BP rates Kevin Slowey higher, but that's hard to justify after seeing what happened to him last season.

What we are seeing here is an experiment. The Indians are going almost entirely with extreme ground ball pitchers. Such pitchers can get "hot" depending on where their ground balls are hit. But this rotation's success will likely revolve around the type of season Ubaldo Jimenez has. If the 2010 version shows up, then some of the other weaker links are less exposed. But if the 2011 version is what they get, then this rotation blows up.

Baseball Prospectus predicts the Indians will win 80 games just like last season. But this rotation leaves much of a feeling of queasiness. If Lowe bounces back and Masterson continues to grow and Jimenez can get his stuff together, this team could win 85 games pretty easily. But if two of the three of those scenarios do not develop, this team could struggle to win 75 games in 2012.

Bobby's HiJenks

Perhaps you have seen this story this morning where Bobby Jenks, the injured pitcher of the Boston Red Sox, was charged with five misdemeanors including DUI and leaving the scene of an accident that involved property damage. There should be little tolerance for this kind of thing. Sure, we can all say that young men with lots of money will make mistakes. But it's not like these players aren't warned about these kinds of happenings. And 99.9 percent of major league players never become involved in this sort of behavior.

The story is kind of frightening actually. Jenks knew he was going to flunk the field sobriety test and said he had been taking too many muscle relaxants. Taking too many muscle relaxants? Why would he be doing that? This would seem to indicate that Jenks is having a problem with his medication as he tries to recover from a back surgery. If he knew he would flunk the field sobriety test, then he should have known that he shouldn't be driving.

After he was pulled over, Jenks mentioned that he hit a parked car at a strip club earlier. The story goes on to say that he actually hit two parked cars. The admission was nice and stuff, but why the heck didn't he stop after he hit those cars? Talk about bad judgement after bad judgement. And why do players go to strip clubs? Look, there is no moral objection to strip clubs here. The sex trade is as old as time and people are going to do what they are going to do. Far too much money is spent in this country trying to root out this sex business that could be spent better in other places. But still. Strip clubs cause massive headaches for young men with lots of money. Why risk that?

So now Bobby Jenks is going to face charges and perhaps could see some short jail time. The Red Sox cannot be pleased. They have already had a contentious off season and this doesn't help. Plus, Jenks has accused the Red Sox' doctors of screwing up his back. So the marriage between the team and the player can't be in the best of shapes to begin with. The team is now going to be torn between taking care of the player's health and distancing themselves from his actions. Plus, expect MLB to get involved because the influence he was driving under was drug related. Fun, fun, fun.

Bobby's HiJenks are an unwelcome story. It can't be winked at and it can't be ignored. Jenks has shown in this incident multiple errors of judgement and he's made a mess that he is going to have to live with for quite some time.

Not a Fan of ball in Japan

The Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners will begin their regular season schedules playing each other for two games in Japan. The games will occur nearly a full week before anyone else is playing regular season baseball. Why is that? Do people really like this idea? After the two games are played, the two teams will not have any more regular season baseball until a week later. Does that make any sense? This is all about Bud Selig's world view and taking baseball's popularity around the world. But is it necessary?

Perhaps this writer is being a bit of a curmudgeon. Things are supposed to be linear, at least in this mind. Everyone is supposed to start the season at the same time. Opening Day should be one grand event where all thirty teams are in action and we can all celebrate together. Instead, we'll have an odd standings for a week where two teams will have a record and the rest of the teams won't. And then when the regular season opens on April 4, two teams won't be heard from until April 6.

The first question is whether baseball needs this. It is easy to see that Japan is already extremely big on baseball. Since the sport was introduced over there in the early Twentieth Century, the passion for the sport  has been transforming. As such, there is already much interest in Japan for all baseball--their own and in the majors. Many of Japan's biggest stars have signed in the majors and media interest has been through the roof over there. So it is not that these games will pique that interest any higher. It will be nice for the Japanese fans to see Ichiro Suzuki in action again. But still. What is to be gained by the exercise?

Is this a bone that Selig has thrown the Japanese for the hundreds of millions of dollars the fans there spend on MLB merchandise? What about the Mariners' season ticket holders? They lose two home games plus the Mariners lose those gate receipts and all that goes with it. The venders and parking garages lose two games of income. Since the A's struggle with attendance anyway, why not at least have made these two games Athletic home games?  ***Update. The schedule was looked at incorrectly. The A's are considered the home team. But still...

And how does the exercise affect the two teams that have to go over there to play? It has to disrupt the springs of those two teams as their pitchers can't get their full spring reps to get ready for the season. It has to affect the young and fringe players who needed a full spring schedule to make their cases to make the big club. Sure, there will be some exhibitions over there and that will help. But it's not like facing big league pitching here.

It all just seems kind of pointless. Plus, it makes the start of the season messy. This may make Bud Selig all squishy inside, but the feelings here just fall kind of flat. Not a Fan of ball in Japan. Not a Fan at all.

The Reds are Dusty

You know how you avoid bending over so that your underwear does not show? Writing about baseball can be like that. Topics are sometimes avoided because of fear you will look either biased or uninformed and neither is a comfortable place to be. In this particular space, posts about the Cincinnati Reds have been particularly avoided and it is not because the team is disliked. On the contrary, Cincinnati is a great baseball town with a rich baseball history. Some of the players there are favorites like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Mike Leake. To be honest, the Reds have been avoided because of bias about their manager, Dusty Baker.

No, it is not Baker's skin color that causes the bias. This space should not even exist if that were the case. The bias goes back to personally blaming Baker for the demise of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior during Baker's tenure with the Cubs. Those two pitchers should have been the dynamic duo for a decade. And like most biases, this one is not even logical because we simply do not know if Wood and Prior would have developed the injuries they did no matter how they were used by Baker. But they were hurt under his watch and care and he is held responsible.

And it is not like those two were isolated instances. There was Bill Swift and Jeff Brantley and others that were never the same after perceived overwork under Baker's watch. There is also the perception here that he hasn't been able to close the deal. In his eighteen years as a manager, his teams have won a grand total of one National League pennant and no World Series titles. His record in the post season is 17-22 including the Reds' colossal blowout at the hands of the Phillies in 2010.

But big picture, Dusty Baker has had success as a manager. His teams have a .521 winning percentage and all of his teams combined have finished in first place in the division four times. That is not a bad record. He managed Barry Bonds for ten seasons and lived to tell about it (if he so chose). So, there's that. And it cannot be forgotten that he was a very good baseball player in his day as well. This bias has to be dealt with because the Reds are still a factor in the NL Central this coming season and his team cannot continue to be avoided like they are contagious or something.

It is time to "man up" about this particular bias. Now that it is out in the open, it can be dealt with. Baseball Prospectus predicts the Reds will win slightly few games than the Cardinals in 2012. With such a close race predicted in the NL Central this coming season, that race will need attention. And a lot of Baker's decisions will be important if every game counts in that divisional battle. It all starts with how his rotation will start the season as he has seven pitchers vying for the five spots. The season will be fascinating and this space and its readers have been shortchanged by a bias that simply has no good reason for existence. 

Buck Showalter meets his Waterloo

No one can exactly determine the benefit or harm a baseball manager brings to his team. The oft-trotted out discourses are the chemistry, organization, inspiration sides of what a manager does. But how to you measure that? You can't. Fairly or unfairly, a manager is judged by the bottom line of wins and losses. If his team wins, the manager gets to hang around. If it loses, he's soon replaced. Some managers are known for the long-term stability they bring to a team like Tommy Lasorda, Bobby Cox and others. Some are known for changing teams, changing the culture and bringing new-found success. Billy Martin comes to mind. Some did both such as Tony La Russa. Buck Showalter is in the Billy Martin category. That is until he met his Waterloo in Baltimore.

Showalter's hiring in Baltimore to lead the Orioles was seen as brilliant coup by the organization. And the honeymoon of 2010 when he took over a ragtag bunch and led them the rest of the way to a nearly .600 winning percentage was the stuff of legends. Showalter had done it again after previous experiences of helping build the Yankees to their first playoff berth in years back in 1995. He was considered one of the architects of the Yankee glory years that followed. He followed that up by piloting the Arizona Diamondbacks as a new franchise back in 1998 and had them in the playoffs with a 100-win season just a year later. His 91-game run as the Orioles' skipper in 2010 seemed to cement his reputation as a re-builder of lost dreams. And then 2011 happened.

Unlike Showalter's last miracles, 2010 ended up as a mirage. The full weight of a strangled organization came tumbling around his ankles like a pair of old trousers in 2011 and the team was abysmal. To be fair, Showalter would have needed a hundred fingers to plug the water of runs that poked holes in the 2011 dike that was the Baltimore Orioles. The team simply could not prevent runs if their lives depended on it. The team was dead last in runs allowed, home runs hit and hits in general. And that wasn't their only problem.

Poor old Vladimir Guerrero and his aching wheels were just a semblance of his former self and he walked only seventeen times in 590 plate appearances. Mark Reynolds struck out another 196 times and played some of the poorest third base seen in this generation. Injuries to Brian Roberts and Luke Scott didn't help nor did a revolving door of replacement players like Felix Pie, Jake Fox and Josh Bell. 

There were some bright spots. J.J. Hardy had been discarded by two different organizations and found himself near the top of a weak MLB cast of shortstops. Nick Markakis had a solid season, Matt Wieters started to show why he was such a highly touted prospect behind the plate and Jim Johnson was yeoman in the bullpen. But they weren't enough.

Many look at the front office of the Orioles past and present and can't see any kind of solid plan taking shape. The team has an owner with the reputation of sticking his hands in the pie and defeating the process. A once proud franchise has fallen on hard times and their new neighbors, the Nationals, have a chance of eating into the fan base.

Where does Showalter fit into all of this? He doesn't. He's just a tired, old guy who has taken to randomly taking verbal shots at the AL East competition. Perhaps that's harsh. In fact, it is harsh. He did rouse his bunch to knock off the Red Sox last September. You have to give him his share of credit for the improvement and belief in Hardy and Wieters. He simply doesn't have enough horses and there isn't much rising help underneath the major league level to come and lift them.

Will 2012 be any better for Showalter and his Orioles? Perhaps just a little. They have pitched well in Spring Training, but the projected rotation of two unproven Japanese imports, two former pitching prospects that have had trouble mastering the majors and Jason Hammel do not provide much hope that this year's rotation will be any better than the last. Brian Roberts is still in limbo. The bullpen, led by Johnson could be decent but is suspect at the back end with Alfredo Simon and Pedro Strop. All in all, the Baseball Prospectus prediction of 73 wins seems downright giddy.

Buck Showalter, former franchise savior, has met his match in this scenario. His reputation has met its Waterloo. You have to wonder if in the back of Showalter's mind, he wishes he had stayed at ESPN.

BBA Linkfest - General Thaw

Winter can be a painfully depressing time for a New Englander. Vast white and gray landscapes, short days and day after day without warmth can wreck havoc on a soul. To complicate matters, there is no baseball except in the memories, the stat sites and with the writing of fine colleagues of the General Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. Reading their work has helped get this New Englander through another long winter. A surprisingly warm spell hit this area of the world this week and three feet of snow melted in four days. The ground lays bare with just a few remnants of blackened and mottled snow. The thaw is here. The sump pump is humming. Recreational baseball is being played in Arizona and Florida and the General Chapter is chirping happily from their fingertips. Here are Thursday's links:

Who doesn't love prediction posts this time of year? This Fan will break out his own crystal ball here in a week or so. In the mean time, what do you think of For Baseball Junkies predictions?

The Baseball Index is doing their own prognosticating and selects its key players for each team in the National League East.

Got to love trick shots performed with a baseball bat. Perhaps you've seen that viral video of that guy hitting a ball into the nets strategically placed around the infield. If you loved that, you'll love this one featured on The Golden Sombrero. And congrats to Mike Rosenbaum for his new gig at The Bleacher Report. He promises he will still maintain his site though.

If you love great writing and baseball cards, check no further than Grubby Glove's latest entry.

Leave it to the Hall of Very Good to find the second coming of the Batting Stance Guy. And he is terrific too. Just like HOVG.

Yes!! Theo of Hot Corner Harbor has another installment of his great series on retired numbers. 

The Fan's good friend and writer of Left Field explains in a lovely piece how he developed such a eclectic taste in music. 

Thank goodness for Michael Schwartze! This Fan can never figure out easily who is a rookie and who isn't. Now all this Fan has to do is go to Mike's post over at MLB Dirt and refresh the memory.Oh, and check out the Fan's post over there this week. It was a fun one to write.

Watching spring baseball can get...umm...boring after a while. Sam Evans of MLB Reports has some great suggestions on how to punch it up a bit. You go, Sam.

Nik has been listing the top ten players on each team for the past couple of weeks over at his Niktig's Baseball Blog. Check this one out on the Red Sox.

So this Fan was hoping to someday see Trevor Bauer do that long toss thing he does. So it was a miracle of sorts when MTD came through with a video of said event on his Off Base Percentage site.. And it's amazing. Make sure you click the full screen thingy on the video to get the full scope. And then hit escape to read MTD's always terrific writing of the feat we just saw.

Old Time Family Baseball always has lots of exotic and kinky baseball stuff to enjoy everyday. Unfortunately, this Fan hasn't been able to figure out how to link the ones it doesn't title. So the link is to the site and then scroll down to find the cool rally hat.

Geoff Ratliff of the Pop Fly Boys gives us ten fantasy baseball players to shoot for in his latest post. And he gives all the appropriate warnings too.

In a post that only TCM could pull off, his The Platoon Advantage post tells George Brett to shut up.

This Fan is probably the only guy in America that hates March Madness. But if it's your thing, check out Rational Pastime's bracket challenge series. It's so good that the Fan almost got interested.

Speaking of that NCAA extravaganza, The Sports Banter made some predictions.

Sully of Sully Baseball somehow predicted American Idol's theme night topic with his heading for his great piece on the Mets this week.

In probably this Fan's favorite post this week, Jeff Dickinson of Through the Fence Baseball asks the great question: Is Jerry Sands the next Paul Konerko?

Mike Cardano of the X-Log tries to dampen our enthusiasm of Yeonis Cespedes and has a point.

Jeremy Wolf is in prediction mode as he's begun a series over at his Wolf's Den site. This one is on the Cardinals.

Staying in prediction mode, Eugene Tierney of 85% Sports fame previews the Philadelphia Phillies.

For years now, previewing the Pittsburgh Pirates has been a drag. Ryan Sendek's 2012 version isn't anything of the sort over at his Analysis Around the Horn site.

Has the Fan told you that he adores Babes Love Baseball's Haiku season previews? This version is for the Baltimore Orioles and check out that picture! How perfect! We also learn that J.J. Hardy is a hottie.

Daniel over at The Ball Caps Blog pays tribute to some female sports writers and rightly so. There needs to be a book on this topic!

Somehow the Fan missed this on Twitter, but Dirk Hayhurst has left Italian baseball behind. Stevo-sama of the terrific The Baseball Enthusiast fills us in on the details.

Baseball Unrated has the headline of the year. Seriously, how can you ever top, "The Tortoise and LaHair"? You can't.

FHPromos of Baseballism bounces off a Tyler Kepner article on this Fan's favorite 2012 topic. Oh pleeeease let it come true Rockies!

Justin Jabs ranks first basemen in a great offering on his Baseblog site.

Mario Salvini covers the recent flap of C.J. Wilson's Twitter prank on Mike Napoli at his Che Palle! site. This Fan didn't think it was funny.

The predictions barrel on in spectacular fashion as Matt Whitener previews the AL Central over at Cheap.Seats.Please.

Dizzy Valance of the Crum-Bum Beat starts us off with a great picture and it is all good from there in his sleeper picks of 2012.

The Diamond Hogger's TheNaturalMevs gives us ten bold predictions for 2012. Yes, they are bold. But they make sense.

And finally, Dugout 24 reports on Lance Berkman's shy comments to the commissioner this past week. Yup. Berkman is shy all right.

Have a great week everyone. Real baseball is almost here!

Bullish on the Blue Jays

Yes, we know, we know: Spring Training stats mean nothing. Heck, there was a post here by that title just a week ago. Even so, it is hard to look at what the Toronto Blue Jays are doing this spring and not be a little impressed. Yesterday, on a piece for MLB Dirt, it was explained why the prognosis for the Tampa Bay Rays was bearish. This was a justification for the prediction earlier on that site that the Rays have too many holes to capture a playoff spot for 2012. Before this preseason started, there was already the thought that the Blue Jays were going to be a lot better in 2012 than people thought. The spring they are having merely gives a hint that this thought might be valid.

In a comical response to the aforementioned Bay Rays piece, the terrific Michael Weber (@m_weber) asked MLB Dirt's proprietor, Jonathan Mitchell (@FigureFilbert), if anyone could name the 3-4-5 starters of the Blue Jays rotation. Mitchell responded that he didn't agree with the bearish projection of the Bay Rays but that the piece was well written. But the real answer to Weber's question is that the 3-4-5 rotations spots are going to be better than a lot of people think.

That rotation starts with two studs. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow are two terrific starting pitchers but for different reasons. Romero is a ground ball guy (54.7 percent) who won fifteen games last season with a 2.92 ERA. His FIP was a lot higher at 4.20 but that is somewhat understandable in that his homer rate was over one per nine innings and his BABIP and strand rates have regression shouted all over them. But even if he comes in with a solid ERA in the mid-threes, he's going to be a solid starter in 2012 and will get his share of wins.

Brandon Morrow on the other hand is a guy with an amazing arm who has the ability to just blow people away. Morrow struck out over ten batters per nine innings a year ago. His ERA of 4.72 was very high but his FIP was a lot lower at 3.64. If Morrow can be a little better at home and lower his walk rate just a bit, he is going to be a Cy Young Award candidate. He has that kind of talent.

But Weber's question still hasn't been answered yet. Who are the next three starters? There is the forgotten Brett Cecil for one. Cecil had just about as bad a season in 2011 as a pitcher can have. He went 4-11 with an astronomical ERA (and a FIP that was even higher), a 1.60 homer per nine inning rate and a whole lot of messiness. But we are talking about a guy who won fifteen games the year before and by all accounts, he has used 2011 as a wake up call and is on a mission for 2012. Look for a much better season for Cecil in 2012. Book it in fact.

Then there is Henderson Alvarez, who is a lot better pitcher than people realize. He has amazing control and his only limitation will be that the Blue Jays have to monitor his inning count, probably to about 150 innings.

The fifth starter is a problem. By default, the position will go to Dustin McGowan, a guy we all root for because of what he has overcome to get back to the major leagues. But McGowan isn't a long term solution. Kyle Drabek looks a lot better this spring and could regain his once terrific prospect standing. If McGowan falters, Drabek could step in nicely.

So, yes, this rotation isn't filled with the big names everyone knows about. But it's a lot better than people think and since run prevention was the Jays' biggest problem last year, could show a lot better in 2012 and surprise a lot of people. Add this to a much improved bullpen and the Blue Jays could prevent fifty or more runs over last year's total allowed.

Last year's bullpen for the Blue Jays was a disaster. The top two guys, Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch simply couldn't close the deal at the end of the game. The projected bullpen of Sergio Santos, Francisco Cordero, Casey Janssen, Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor and Carlos Villanueva should be very good.

Add an improved pitching staff to a potent offense and you have a surprise team. Jose Bautista has proved that he's a real force and will remain so for years to come. Brett Lawrie looks like the real deal and is killing the ball this spring. The Blue Jays will get his benefit all season which will help tremendously. Adam Lind needs to be better and he has showed that in the past, but his last two seasons lead to a big concern. All the Blue Jays need is for one of the three enigmas of Colby Rasmus, Eric Thames and Travis Snider to have a big season. Edwin Encarnacion will be a good designated hitter and J.P. Arencibia should improve offensively and defensively in his second full season as the everyday catcher. 

Yunel Escobar has proved to be a terrific shortstop away from Bobby Cox and Kelly Johnson is solid if unspectacular at second.

The view here is that the Toronto Blue Jays are a dangerous team. Baseball Prospectus projects them to win 77 games in 2012. Take the over on that big time. There is no reason this team can't win 85 games. For more of an in-depth look at the team's players, The Tao of Stieb has had a fantastic series called "30 Jays in 30 Days." It's highly recommended reading.

Five Years Ago

The latest news on Chase Utley is not good. The Philadelphia Phillies' second baseman has hit a "plateau" in his rehab for his chronic knee problem. Utley has already missed 102 games combined over the last two seasons and his once great career seems at a crossroads. 2010 wasn't quite as off for Utley statistically, but last year, his numbers really dipped. His power at the plate seemed sapped and it really cannot give anyone any optimism that Utley can again be the elite second baseman he once was. There is no joy in this for any baseball fan no matter what team you root for. When an elite player has his career and abilities cut short due to chronic injuries, we all suffer. 

It was this sort of mourning moment that prompted a look at Utley's career. Just five years ago, he was one of the best players in the game. Not only was he a hitting machine as a second baseman, he was the best at playing his position. It was noting his several top ten finishes for the MVP Award that prompted this post. The focus was put on 2007. That was just five seasons ago. Five years is nothing in the grand scheme of things, but so much has changed in baseball since then that perusing the MVP finishes for 2007 are astounding. Let's look first at the American League:

1. Alex Rodriguez (New York Yankees) - A-Rod hit 54 homers, drove in 154 and finished with an OPS of 1.067. A-Rod has become a shell of that just five years later.
2. Magglio Ordonez (Detroit Tigers) - Ordonez had 216 hits in 2007 batted .363 with 28 homers and 139 RBIs. Ordonez is now out of baseball.
3. Vladimir Guerrero (Angels) - Guerrero had 186 hits in 2007 and batted .324. He drove in 125 and even posted a .403 on-base percentage. Guerrero could not get a job this off season.
4. David Ortiz (Boston Red Sox) - Ortiz is still cranking.
5. Mike Lowell (Boston Red Sox) - Lowell batted .324 in 2007 with 191 hits. He drove in 120 runs with 21 homers. Lowell has been out of baseball for two seasons now.
6. Jorge Posada (New York Yankees) - 2007 might have been Posada's finest season (at least offensively). He retired this off season.
7. Victor Martinez (Cleveland Indians) - Had a terrific year in 2011 but busted up his knee and will miss 2012. He might not have a job when he returns.
8. Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle Mariners) - Cranked out 234 more hits in 2007. Didn't reach 200 last season for the first time.
9. Carlos Pena (Tampa Bay Devil Rays) - Had a 2007 slash line of .282/.411/.627. Hit 46 homers. He has flirted with the Mendoza Line the last couple of seasons.
10. Curtis Granderson (Detroit Tigers)
11. Derek Jeter (New York Yankees)
12. Grady Sizemore (Cleveland Indians) - Scored 118 runs and hit 24 homers as a lead off batter. Injuries has derailed his career.

And now the National League:

1. Jimmy Rollins (Philadelphia Phillies) - Rollins was the best shortstop in baseball in 2007. Had a two-digit season in doubles, homers and triples. Rollins is not the best shortstop anymore. 
2. Matt Holliday (Colorado Rockies) - Among the best sluggers in the game in 2007. OPS of 1.016. Now he is more known for moths in his ear and injuries at critical times.
3. Prince Fielder (Milwaukee Brewers) - Prince wasn't rich yet. But he was working on it. He is now.
4. David Wright (New York Mets) - Wright has become a tragic figure in New York and Citi Field put a stop to his prodigious numbers. Has not come close to having MVP-consideration numbers for years.
5. Ryan Howard (Philadelphia Phillies) - Bad contract, but lots of RBIs. Blew out his Achilles Ankle in last year's playoffs.
6. Chipper Jones (Atlanta Braves) - Now a part time player on his last gimpy legs.
7. Jake Peavy (San Diego Padres) - After several years of coming back for devastating injuries, there is now talk of making him a relief pitcher. Five years ago, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.
8. Chase Utley (Philadelphia Phillies) - The player that prompted this exercise.
9. Albert Pujols (St. Louis Cardinals) - Still mashing and should have a big season for the Angels.
10. Hanley Ramirez (Miami Marlins) - Considered at the time the best player in the NL not named Pujols. Looking for a comeback season in 2012 after a couple of way off years.
11. Eric Byrnes (Arizona Diamondbacks) - Eric Byrnes!? Just five years ago...
12. Alfonso Soriano - (Chicago Cubs) - Not much talk of a bad contract just five years ago like there is now.

As you can see, a lot has changed in just five short seasons. Remember how brittle careers are and enjoy today's great players. Who knows what will happen to them five years from now.