Tuesday, April 01, 2003

Thank goodness it's finally April except that for those of us in the frozen tundra that is Northern Maine, we still have too much snow on the ground and overnight lows in the single digits. At least we can watch baseball being played in places that at least look like Spring and Summer. Speaking of snow, did you see the snow in the Baltimore/Cleveland game? And the game wasn't even in Cleveland! It was wild. "Baseball Tonight" which is god's gift to baseball fans, showed a clip from the game and the amazing thing was how long it took the umpires to notice that nobody could see the ball!

The Jeter injury is as devasting as I thought. He is history for at least six or more weeks and will have a long process of healing after that. There is doubt that he can ever be the same player he has been. It's such a shame because he was going to have a big season. I truly believe that he was not himself last year and that he never let on that his health wasn't right. Watching the games, he never looked comfortable and I think he was hurt all year. The injury still angers me and it isn't because he is on my favorite team. If Griffey was the guy that the idiot catcher crushed, I would have been just as angry. The catcher simply destroyed Jeter and should be fined and/or suspended. I saw the sickening replay a hundred times last night and it's not as if Huckabee tripped and fell into Jeter. He launched his legs into Jeter AFTER Jeter had already reached the bag. Dive in with your glove and I have no problem. Dive into a player with your knees and you're going to hurt someone. I repeat boys and girls, it was NOT a clean play.

Okay...calming myself down...my heartrate is back near resting...I'll now return to Fearless Flagrant Fan mode and start my American League predictions with the AL East.

I wrote a post a week or so ago about the Red Sox looking strong and challenging the Yankees. Jeter going down makes that prediction look better, but watching the Red Sox bullpen last night and tonight changes my mind. After watching Urbina look strong for the Rangers on Sunday night, I couldn't help wonder why they didn't keep him. The guy looked lights out while no one on the Red Sox bullpen by committee can come in and strike someone out. All of the Red Sox relievers are finesse types and I don't think that will get it done. It looks as bad as the Ranger's bullpen last year. And now the Rangers have the Red Sox pen. Go figure.

The Yankees have question marks. Can Matsui do half of what he did in Japan? Will Clemens, et al, hold up? Will the bullpen hold on until Rivera comes back (they've looked great so far)? I hope they give Almonte a shot instead of spending more money on filler until Jeter is ready. Almonte is exciting. In either case, the Yankees are going to hit but Jeter out of the lineup weakens it considerably. I think Soriano suffers the most because he doesn't have Jeter behind him. The Yankees could win the division with 90 wins.

Homeruns: Soriano with 43
RBI: Giambi with 134
Average: Bernie Williams
Surprise player of the year: Nick Johnson (it's time to see what the potential tag is all about)
Wins: Pettitte with 22 (a breakout year)
Saves: Tie Rivera and Osuna with 24 each

The Red Sox will need to abandon their bullpen by committee immediately and find someone who can do the job. If they can do that, then the Yankees could still be in trouble because this team is going to crush the ball all year. Nomar and Manny are back all the way, Hillenbrand is better and Millar was a perfect addition. The best roster move was Todd Walker who will hit near or over .300 and give them some extra fire in the lineup. His fielding isn't spectacular but he can't be worse than Offerman! Ortiz can mash as can Mueller. This team will lead the league in runs scored. Damon starts them off perfectly and if he has a good year, the rest will fall in place. The staring pitching is mostly excellent but oh...that bullpen. Oy!

Homeruns and RBI: Manny Ramirez with 54 and 145 in an MVP year
Average: Nomar Garciaparra with .348
Surprise player of the year: It still could be Chad Fox
Wins: Pedro with 23
Saves: Wakefield?? with 22??

Tampa Bay Devil Rays will come in third only because the Blue Jays look like they are starting the season sleepwalking and Baltimore just won't do much this year. Don't under estimate Lou Piniella as manager as he makes a huge difference. And I really hope that Baldelli breaks in with wide brush strokes. Go Rocco!

Homeruns: Travis Lee with 36
RBI: Ben Grieve with 96
Average: Carl Crawford at .298
Surprise player of the year: Jim Parque
Wins: Jim Parque with 16
Saves: Lance Carter? with 22

The Orioles will sneak past the Blue Jays as the Blue Jays look dead. The Orioles are rebuilding and seem better than last year. I think Jay Gibbons is a future star. Conine is solid as is Surhoff who is back home. They will lose 90 games but there might be a glimmer of hope here.

Homeruns and RBI: Jay Gibbons with 31 and 94
Average: Marty Cordova
Surprise player of the year: B.J. Ryan
Wins: Omar Daal (he better at that price)
Saves: B.J. Ryan with 34

Maybe it's just my perception and maybe the Yankees are that good, but the Blue Jays looked like they were asleep the last two games. Stewart is the best player nobody knows but he must be falling inside in a place that never grows. Delgado is the same thing as his numbers are declining from year to year. I remember a couple of years ago when you couldn't throw anything by him. Now everything hits off his fists. It's a long season and it may turn around but I see 100 losses this year.

Homeruns and RBI: Delgado with 35 and 110 (ho hum numbers that should be better)
Average: Shannon Stewart at .309
Surprise player of the year: Frank Catalanotto who is a good pickup as a role player
Wins: Roy Halliday with 18
Saves: Kelvim Escobar with 25 (with his usual 12 blown or so)

The Red Sox are still an enigma. They could make this an interesting year and contend strongly. Or they could watch their bullpen blow 30 saves and wallow away the season just above .500. The Yankee experience is just as up in the air. I don't see either team advancing far in the playoffs should they get that far.

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