What's With the Ubaldo Questions?

Two questions keep coming back to this writer concerning Ubaldo Jimenez, the pitcher for the Colorado Rockies. The first is: Why do the Rockies dangle him as trade bait? And secondly: Why do bloggers question Ubaldo's stuff? Here is just one example of doubt concerning the pitcher. Buster Olney is another that has expressed others' concern for Jimenez and his stuff this season. Perhaps the questions about the health of Ubaldo Jimenez are a direct result of the Rockies wanting to trade him in the first place. They must know something everybody else doesn't. But heck, any team that wants to deal for the pitcher will look at the medicals, right? So what gives?

Ubaldo Jimenez is one of those cornerstone pitchers for a pitching staff. He's clearly the best pitcher on the Rockies. Plus, he's just the kind of pitcher you need in the thin air of Coors Field. Power is the way to go in a park that represses movement. And more and more, analysts focus on only the things a pitcher can control and not so much the win-loss record and at times, even the ERA. The things a pitcher can control are considered strikeouts, walks and homers. Despite the 6-9 record and an ERA of 4.20--numbers that seem pedestrian--Ubaldo Jimenez is very similar this year to the Ubaldo Jimenez of previous years. Here are the numbers for the last four years broken down by category:

• Strikeouts per nine:  2008 - 7.79, 2009 - 8.17, 2010 - 8.69 and 2011 - 8.56
• Walks per nine: 2008 - 4.67, 2009 - 3.51, 2010 - 3.74 and 2011 - 3.47
• Homers per nine: 2008 - 0.50, 2009 - 0.54, 2010 - 0.41 and 2011 - 0.74

Those numbers hardly look like a pitcher that is struggling with his stuff. Oh, the homers per nine is up slightly, but that's still a good number.

To be totally fair and forthcoming, there are a few numbers that cause a bit of concern. First, his line drive percentage is up fairly significantly. After averaging a line drive percentage of 18.1 percent for his career, that number is up to 20.8 percent. And secondly, his rate of infield pop ups is way down from his past two years when he induced an inordinate amount of those weak outs. Fangraphs rates pitches and gives them a value of runs above average. Ubaldo's score for his fastball and slider are way down from previous years. So that's something. His swinging strike percentage is also down from his career average of 9.0 to 7.7 percent. Is that the evidence we are talking about?

It's been said that Ubaldo's velocity is down. Is it? Ubaldo's career four-seam fastball has been 95.4 MPH. This year, he is averaging 93.9. So yeah, that's down. His slider is down three miles per hour. His two-seam fastball is down from last year's 96.3 MPH to this year's 94 MPH. But two years ago and the year before that, this pitch was in the 91.5 MPH range. In his last two games, he's been hovering in the high 93 to low 94 range on both his fastballs. So perhaps there are small reasons for concern in those numbers. His fastball is topping out around where he used to average.

But this writer keeps coming back to the fact that his K/9 and FIP (and xFIP) are consistent with his performance historically. ZIPs projects that Jimenez will go 6-2 with a 3.21 ERA in the rest of his 11 starts (he pitches today). Why wouldn't anyone want that kind of performance? Pitching is a premium in Colorado. It always has been. For the first time in their history, they have an ace. Ubaldo Jimenez is an ace. He is the kind of pitcher to build a staff around. He isn't the kind of pitcher to let go to be an ace somewhere else.

There have been whispers that the Rockies weren't happy with the condition he came to camp in or the fact that he made a European trip before Spring Training. That was compounded by missing his first couple of starts due to non-arm related muscle issues. Once Ubaldo Jimenez did start pitching, it wasn't pretty. His start mirrored the Rockies season that has been disappointing. It seems that trading Ubaldo Jimenez would seriously weaken the overall pitching staff. So why do it? He'll be coming into big money soon, so that's probably a factor. His value will never be higher so perhaps the highest score of prospects could come back to the Rockies. But this writer just can't see trading away the anchor of your pitching staff.

Today's rumors are that the Red Sox are the hungriest for him. That would be simply unfair if that happened. As if they aren't stacked enough! But if they did get him, they would be that much better. Because this guy is a very good pitcher.

It makes some sense for there to be some concern about Ubaldo's velocity, swinging strike percentage and pop up percentage. But despite all those things, his results in the things he can control are pretty much the same as always. This Fan can't get why the Rockies would even think about trading him. But this Fan can also understand why teams would salivate at the possibility.

Game Picks - Saturday: July 30, 2011

How can one make two brilliant picks like the White Sox over the Red Sox and the Blue Jays over the Rangers and still have a negative day? Easily, this week it seems. Every day this week has been in the red. Every single day. Not by a lot, but in the red just the same. The situation is getting very annoying. So how does it keep happening?

Well, for one thing, keep picking against the Mets. They keep winning and this picker keeps picking against them. That's am incorrect pick a day. Sprinkle in a rare one-run loss for the Giants who lost in extra innings. Pick a Yankee team with A.J. Burnett on the mound despite the facts he presents. Pick against the Braves when Brandon Beachy is on the mound. Keep thinking Gio Gonzalez is a good pitcher when he hasn't been pitching like one in a long time. Keep thinking the Indians are a good team when they're not. Constantly forget that Tim Stauffer can't get run support. And then overlook Matt Kemp and the damage he can do in a game. Add it all up together and you get the recipe for yet another bad day.

This picker is getting all snarly with how this is going. There are two singular goals this weekend that cannot be denied. One, get on the green in regulation just once this weekend and two, have a good day picking, for crying out loud. Here are Saturday's picks which include a Yankee - Oriole double header:

• The Yankees sweep the Orioles: A combination of Bartolo Colon and the return of Ivan Nova combine to be much better than Zach Britton (just back from the minors) and Chris Tillman.
• The Rangers over the Blue Jays: Brad Mills makes his first start for the Blue Jays after pitching effectively in the minors. That makes this game interesting to pick. It's hard at this point to pick against the super effective left arm of Derek Holland.
• The Angels over the Tigers: Dan Haren is dealing judging from his last outing and remains the fourth most effective pitcher in the American League. Duane Below hasn't pitched more than five innings yet for the Tigers.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: Not feeling overly confident in this pick. Kyle Lohse is always a hit or miss pick when he starts. And Rodrigo Lopez has thrown three straight quality starts. Yes, that Rodrigo Lopez. Looking for the Cards to explode some rockets in this one.
• The Bay Rays over the Mariners: Young Alex Cobb hasn't lost yet. Young Michael Pineda has been losing a lot lately as have his Mariners.
• The Indians over the Royals: Yeah, I hear you. This picker just said that the Indians are being picked too often. But it's Justin Masterson, man! He faces Felipe Paulino, who has a great arm and lots of losses.
• The Mets over the Nationals: Okay, Mets. You win. You get the pick. Watch them lose now. Oy. R.A. Dickey versus Jason Marquis.
• The Red Sox over the White Sox: Jon Lester is just too good to pick against. Even if he is facing Philip Humber, arguably the best White Sox pitcher this year.
• The Braves over the Marlins: Despite Tim Hudson's loss to the Marlins in his only start against them this year, Hudson is 9-4 in his career against the Fish. There have been fewer hard luck stories this season than Anibal Sanchez. He's made over twenty starts, has been very good in probably eighteen of them and still only has six wins.
• The Brewers over the Astros: Quick. Name the Astros shortstop. Yup, that's the point. Besides Altuve and Bourn, what's to root for? Yovani Gallardo over J.A. Happ (less). 
• The Giants over the Reds: Picking the Reds to win two games in a row has been a losing proposition. Like Mike Leake in this game, but Madison Bumgarner is too good to pick against.
• The Rockies over the Padres: Aaron Harang has been a good luck charm for the Padres this season. He's 9-2. But Ubaldo Jiminez (if he isn't traded first) goes for the Rockies.
• The Twins over the Athletics: Just keep thinking the Twins are dead and they will just keep resurrecting. Nick Blackburn over Guillermo Moscoso.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: They heart wants to pick Micah Owings but the head says, "Don't even think about it!" Clay Billingsley with the win.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Phillies over the Pirates: This pick is made with a heavy heart. James McDonald has been a great story as have the Pirates. But they aren't good enough to beat Cliff Lee and the Phillies. Will Hunter Pence show up today?

Yesterday: 7-8

Week: 36-47

Month: 192-178

Season: 856-728

Games of the Day: 75-43

And the Monumental Blunder of the Year Goes to...

Perhaps a post that starts with such a negative heading is unsporting for a Friday. And perhaps this isn't the right time to bash a team that is already taking a lot of heat for a move it made this week during this year's version of the trade deadline. And just as likely, it's might be far too premature to be giving away season awards when there are more than 55 games to play this season. But the monumental blunder of the year has to go to the St. Louis Cardinals for making Ryan Theriot their every day shortstop for 2011. This writer panned the deal when it was first announced and at the risk of sounding puffed up, this Fan told you so.

Earlier in the year, Ryan Theriot was at least getting on base and batting lead off. By the end of May, Theriot was batting .316 with an on base percentage of .369. Cardinal fans used to the defensive skills of Brendan Ryan could at least say to themselves, "Well, at least the guy can hit." But he can't. His BABIP during those early times was .349. It was in the words of Bugs Bunny, a "miragee." And perhaps the name of Brendan Ryan should come up in this conversation since Tony LaRussa is coming under heavy fire for the Rasmus situation. Brendan Ryan was another of those players who came under LaRussa's shaggy eyebrows of scorn.

The Cardinals made a huge mistake essentially swapping Ryan for Ryan Theriot. Or, to state it as it should be stated, it was a monumental blunder. Brendan Ryan runs the bases well and he's an elite fielding shortstop. Any Cardinal fan can tell you that last year's Cardinal shortstop would have a lapse or two. But last year's shortstop also had 430 assists for a pitching staff that was built to put the ball in play. Last year's Cardinal shortstop is having a good year in Seattle. His season has been the reverse of Theriot. Brendan Ryan started slowly but has come on offensively and though he's still in below league average with his batting, he's still a star fielder.

Fangraphs gives Ryan Theriot a -10.4 rating in the field this season (UZR). Only Yuniesky Betancourt of the Brewers is rated worse. That site's overall leader board for WAR lists Betancourt as the worst shortstop in baseball and Theriot as the next to worse. Meanwhile, their former shortstop is rated as the eleventh best shortstop and the fifth best in fielding.

It seems cruel to pick on Ryan Theriot to this degree. It's not his fault really. He's just a guy trying his hardest to play the sport he loves and have as long a career he can have. The fault here really is the plan that put this in place to begin with. How can you ask a pitching staff to pitch to contact (low walks are stressed in St. Louis), and then put in place a plan that includes Ryan Theriot at short and Skip Schumaker at second? If the Cardinals had done their homework, they should have known that Theriot has no arm to back his range.

But it's not just Theriot's fielding that is a problem (though that is definitely the worst part of it), he's not great as a batter either. He's had two decent seasons in his seven year career. He has an 82 career OPS+. His 8.1 career walk percentage is deceiving as it has come down in recent years. Last year, it was 6.4 percent after posting a 7.5 percent the year before. This year is his all time worse at 5.5 percent. That's a three year downward trend. His power is non-existent, but you don't expect that from a shortstop usually.

To complete an unholy triad of statistics, Fangraphs rates Theriot in negative numbers in batting, fielding and base running. And so, it seems that this writer's reservations about this move were warranted. Theriot has been a killer.

Again, don't blame Ryan Theriot. He's doing the best he can with his ability. It's not Ryan Theriot's fault. This was poor decision making by the Cardinals as an organization and it perhaps all starts with the chutzpah of their manager. And though there may be other worthy contenders, the installation of Theriot as the Cardinals' full time shortstop for 2011 is sure to rank as the biggest organizational blunder of 2011.

Game Picks - Friday: July 29, 2011

Every day this week has been a day in the red. Talk about frustrating! The Mets swept the Reds. Every game of that series was a Reds pick. Aye! The Cardinals were playing the Astros and split that series, 2-2, including two really poor performances the last two nights. The Red Sox lost to the Royals. How unusual is that? The bullpen tandem of David Purcey and Phil Coke blew up the game for the Tigers and this picker. Similarly, Breslow and others in the Athletics' bullpen gave up seven runs in one late inning to the Tampa Bay Rays to blow up that pick. And every pick for the Nationals/Marlins series was wrong...four in a row.

And so the bad week continues. There are only two days left in the week, so a ten game deficit on the week will be near impossible to make up. The month is nearly over and this week hasn't helped it either. Come on, Friday picks!

• The Tigers over the Angels: Rick Porcello finishes off a great personal month of July with a great outing and he'll need it against Tyler Chatwood if Chatwood throws strikes like he did last time.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Jeremy Guthrie will probably be decent but the Yankees will win despite A.J. Burnett starting.
• The Indians over the Royals: Carlos Carrasco is due for a win. He's pitched pretty well but has lost four straight. Jeff Francis goes for the Royals.
• The Nationals over the Mets: Warning! This is truly an emotional pick. Chien-Ming Wang makes his first start in forever after fighting to get his career back. This Fan has to root for him even though the Mets are extremely hot right now. Dillon Gee goes for the Mets.
• The Phillies over the Pirates: Charlie Morton won't be able to keep up with the zeroes Roy Halladay will throw today.
• The Blue Jays over the Rangers: The upset pick of the day. Predicting Colby Rasmus gets his first hit(s) with the Blue Jays and they put together an offensive show at home off of Alexi Ogando. Brett Cecil keeps the Rangers in check.
• The Giants over the Reds: Ryan Vogelsong is 8-1. How can you pick against that? Dontrelle Willis pitched well in his last outing until his manager left him in there for one inning too many.
• The Marlins over the Braves: Brandon Beachy has seen the league catch up to him. Expect at least one Marlin homer. Clay Hensley has been good as a starter for the Fish.
• The White Sox over the Red Sox: Gavin Floyd has been the hottest starter post All Star break. Tim Wakefield will give up enough runs to suit the White Sox.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: Edwin Jackson makes his first start for the Cardinals and faces a tough Matt Garza. Both will match zeroes and the Cardinals win it late.
• The Padres over the Rockies: Jason Hammel is not having a good year. Tim Stauffer, on the other hand, is becoming an elite pitcher.
• The Athletics over the Twins: Gio Gonzalez is due for a dominating start. His left arm neutralizes several Twins' batters. Francisco Liriano is the wild card in this game though.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: The Dodgers are still tough at home but Ted Lilly has been struggling. Josh Collmenter needs a big game though.
• The Rays over the Mariners: Jeff Niemann has been terrific in his last several starts. He should continue that against the Mariners' paltry line up. Erik Bedard makes his first start back from the DL after spraining his knee.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Brewers over the Astros: Jordan Lyles is still winless for the Astros. The Brewers will have to get a good start from Randy Wolf.

Yesterday: 5-7

Week: 29-39

Month: 185-170

Season: 849-720

Games of the Day: 74-43

The Red Sox Offensive Machine

Before the season began an article appeared on NESN.com which proposed that the Red Sox of 2011 could be the greatest team since the 1927 Yankees. The article appeared on January 2, 2011, long before the season ever began and that article was roasted on Twitter and everywhere else. This site was one of the ones that did the blasting too. How could that writer make such a boast before the season ever started and before a game had been played? But doggone it, that piece is sounding more prophetic all the time. The Red Sox win so often and so convincingly that they are a non-story. How many times do you actually hear about them these days? It's just an accepted fact that they will win and will probably score ten runs or more doing so. It's been an amazing story and few are talking about it.

How good is that offense? While the statistic isn't perfect, OPS+ has been a nice barometer of how a batter or a team is doing against the league average. It takes OPS, which combines on base percentage and slugging percentage, adds in some ball park adjustments and a few other ingredients and comes up with a baseline of 100. Fall below that 100 and you are not batting up to league average. Hit above it and you are better than league average. Well, this year, the league average is 97, so we'll just have to let other smarter people explain that. But anyway, this writer went back year by year as far back as the 1998 Yankees to see what the top OPS+ was for a team each season. The results show just how good this Red Sox offense is.

Since 1998, the best team OPS+ was 117 by the Yankees once and by the 2003 Red Sox and also the 2001 Seattle Mariners (yes, folks, at one time they could hit). The current 2011 Red Sox are sitting at 120 for team OPS+. If the Fan had more energy and more time, every year would have been combed through to see where that 120 stands all time. But suffice it to say that it's the tops in the past fourteen years. What were those 1927 Yankees' OPS+? 127. But those 1920s Yankees were ahead of a historical curve created by Babe Ruth. Ruth paved the way of power that changed the game. It took a while for the major leagues to catch up. This Red Sox team of 2011 come into the season without that paving the way thing going on those early Yankees teams did.

The 1961 Yankees had that Maris and Mantle thing going on. Elston Howard also had an amazing year as did his back up, Johnny Blanchard. That team's OPS+ was 109. The Yankees of 1977 with all those great hitters had a team OPS+ of 115. The only team that seemed to compare to this Red Sox team in modern times was the 1976 Cincinnati Reds, the Big Red Machine, that finished that season with an OPS+ of 120. So perhaps we should call this Red Sox team of 2011 the Big Red Sox Machine.

Again, to summarize the OPS+ number, we're basically saying here that the 2011 Red Sox' offense is 20 percent better than the league. Well, this Fan isn't that good in math, but you get the idea. But the number seems to just cover up the small pieces that make the Boston offense so magnificent. Let's round it out for you.

The 2011 league average for batting average this year is .253. The Red Sox have a team batting average of .280. The 2011 league average for on base percentage is .320. The Red Sox on base percentage is .355. The league average for slugging is .711. The Red Sox are slugging .812. And yes, the Red Sox lead the majors in all three of those categories.

The 2011 Rangers lead the league with 1,001 hits. The Red Sox are only three behind with 998. But the Red Sox have played three less games than the Rangers! The Red Sox are tied with the Yankees with the major league lead in walks with 391. The 2011 Red Sox are third in the league in homers behind the Yankees and the Rangers. The 2011 Red Sox lead the majors in doubles and runs scored.

Need some more convincing? They have already won nineteen blowout games. The definition of a blowout is winning by five or more runs. The Red Sox have done that nineteen times. They have three batters slugging over .500 and Kevin Youkilis is right there at .495. They have five batters with an on base percentage over .390. And this is all with negligible offense at shortstop and with a Carl Crawford struggling along with a .663 OPS. Even their catching, supposedly a weakness starting the season, has a combined OPS+ over 100.

The Red Sox have scored ten or more runs in fifteen of their last fifty-six games. That's more than one in every four games. Incredible. Dustin Pedroia is on a 24 game hitting streak. David Ortiz leads all DHs in just about every category. Jacoby Ellsbury has been the best lead off batter in the majors. Adrian Gonzalez is leading the majors in batting average and in runs batted in. They are killers.

The Red Sox have had some problems with their starting pitching. Injuries and poor performances by John Lackey haven't helped. But this offense covers up a lot of those problem and with great relief pitching and solid defense. All these Red Sox have to do is let their offense take over a game and it doesn't matter what  the pitching does.

The one hint of warning comes from last year's post season. A hot pitching staff can shut down an unworldly offense and win a series. The Red Sox aren't champions yet. But they have to be counted as the chief of contenders for the crown this year. We are seeing an offense so much better than the rest of the league that this is a huge story and one worth more attention and less indifference.

Game Picks - Thursday: July 28, 2011

This week is quickly becoming a lost cause. Is it the dog days of summer or is this picker just dogging it? Whatever the problem is, there hasn't been a positive day all week. And Wednesday was no exception. Who knew that once the Cardinals traded Colby Rasmus that their line up would turn into something akin to the Padres against the Astros yesterday? Who would have guessed that the Angels' hurler, Ervin Santana would no-hit the Indians in their own ballpark?

Looking back over yesterday's picks, you can see that this picker really didn't want to pick the Bay Rays and yet still did. That team suddenly looks dead in the water. James Shields pitched like he didn't want to get traded. The Nationals were a bad pick. And this picker should have known that the Giants' pitcher, whichever one it was, would out duel a Phillies' pitcher...just like the NLCS. The Fan also got a smack down from Aaron Cook as he threw seven scoreless innings. Take that, you loud mouthed Fan!

At least this picker correctly picked the end of the Mariners misery. You knew that Phil Hughes would be a part of it. He's going the way of Joba, isn't he? The Yankees should have stuck with Nova. And that Atlanta Braves pick was a good one. Jair Jurrjens did his thing, didn't he? And with the Cardinal and Pirate losses (and the Reds if that still counts), Zack Greinke pitched a gem as predicted. And the Red Sox did what they always do and scored over ten runs again. More on them at a later post. But they kept the Game of the Day feature rolling along.

Twelve games are on Thursday's schedule. Not bad for a Thursday. The picks:

• The Nationals over the Marlins: This series has confounded this picker since the beginning. And none of the games have been correctly picked. The finale is between John Lannon and Brad Hand. Lannon won his last start and hit a homer. Brad won his last start as well but has been in the minors. Don't know.
• The Reds over the Mets: Beltran is gone, may his Mets uniform rest in peace. This is another series where the picks have been wrong every day. Chris Capuano faces Homer Bailey. Again throwing the hands up in the air.
• The Tigers over the Angels: Joel Pineiro has been awful since he beat the Tigers earlier in the month. This picker thinks the Tigers would like another shot at him. Brad Penny pitches for the Tigers.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Josh Beckett and his cavalcade of batters should win easily against Luke Hochevar and the Royals.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: Randy Wells will be tough as he is coming on lately. But Shaun Marcum will be tougher and the score could be nearly the same as yesterday.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Daniel Hudson out duels Matt Latos. Hudson did lose to the Padres earlier in the year but is 6-1 since.
• The Athletics over the Bay Rays: The Bay Rays look stale and Wade Davis has a horrible career record in Oakland. Rick Harden needs to be good though.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: The Blue Jays celebrated their wild day yesterday with a shutout of the Orioles. More of the same today as Carlos Villanueva beats Brad Bergesen. Bergesen was pretty good his last time out though.
• The Pirates over the Braves: Very interesting game. Derek Lowe is 10-0 lifetime against the Pirates. Surely, that streak has to end some time. Kevin Correia hasn't be good at all lately but is 9-2 on the road. Going with the Pirates.
• The Rangers over the Twins: The Twins have had their way with this series. And things don't look better with Matt Harrison having horrible career numbers against the Twins. But we'll call that too small a sample size and give Harrison the win over Baker, who could give up a home run ball or three in this game.
• The Cardinals over the Astros: The Cardinals will have to bat better than they did yesterday. Wandy Rodriguez is still in the swirl of trade rumors while Jaime Garcia is among the elite of NL starters.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Giants over the Phillies: Tim Lincecum has been scratched two days in a row with the flu. Will he pitch today as planned? The Giants beat Kyle Kendrick either way with new outfielder, Carlos Beltran.

Yesterday: 6-9

Week: 24-32  yeesh!

Month: 180-163

Season: 844-713

Games of the Day: 73-43

Quite a Horse Race for AL Cy Young Award

How amazing is it that Tuesday night featured all three of the year's top contenders for the American League Cy Young Award pitching on the same night? They all won. All three were impressive. The three contenders are C.C. Sabathia, Jared Weaver and Justin Verlander. There could be a fourth as Dan Haren has had a terrific year too. But we'll stick with these three. Unlike last year when the top pick was barely winning any games, this year's trio seem to win all the time. The three pitchers are a combined 43-14! Let's take a quick look at how the race may play out.

C.C. Sabathia: Joe Girardi probably did Sabathia no favors by bringing the pitcher back after the second rain delay last night. Sabathia had nothing after two delays and walked three straight batters to start the eighth. David Robertson got out of the jam but it still cost Sabathia in the stat department. If Sabathia doesn't start that inning, his line looks like this: 7-1-0-0-0-14. Instead, it ended up, 7-1-1-1-3-14. Still impressive but ill advised on the part of Girardi. Even so, Sabathia still leads the other two in fWAR. He also leads the majors in wins. He has the highest ERA of the three at 2.56, but his FIP leads the other two. He also has the best home run per nine inning rate among the three, which is impressive considering where he throws his home games.

• ZIPs projection for the rest of the season: 8-3 with a slightly higher ERA. That would make Sabathia 23-8 and tough to beat.

Justin Verlander: Verlander has the 100 MPH fastball and a no hitter this year. So it's hard to forget about those things. Plus, he is pitching in a dogfight of a division race and came up big last night against the White Sox. He gives up more homers than the other two, but consistently throws more innings and more pitches. Verlander has the flash the other two lack.

• ZIPs projection for the rest of the season: 6-4 with a higher ERA. That would finish Verlander at 20-9 and that won't beat Sabathia. But again, Verlander could pitch in more big games and if he wins them, look out.

Jared Weaver: Weaver has the toughest task because the Angels are not prolific scorers. If he keeps his ERA under two like it is now at 1.79, that would be hard for voters to ignore. His K/BB ratio is fantastic but falls slightly behind his two competitors in that category. He'll get starts down the stretch against the Mariners and Athletics in his own division and that will certainly help him. If the Angels can keep this a race against the Rangers, that will help him too.

• ZIPs projection for the rest of the season: 5-4 with a 3.38 ERA. That will leave Weaver at 19-8 and will hurt his chances. But that projection seems overly pessimistic to this observer. 

If you were to simply bet this horse race based on ZIPs projections, Sabathia would seem to have the inside track to win the award this year. But again, Jared Weaver and Justin Verlander have a chance to make a difference in their division races while Sabathia will simply keep the Yankees on course for the wild card (no way they catch Boston). If the Angels and Tigers stay relevant down the stretch and Weaver and Verlander have big parts to play in those races, either of them could upset the Sabathia-train and steal this award. It's going to be a great race to watch.

Game Picks - Wednesday: July 27, 2011

Now that was an interesting night of baseball. Umpire, Jerry Meals, made one of the worst calls ever in the 19th inning to give the game to the Atlanta Braves. That call made that pick correct, but it really reeks for an umpire to be that wrong in MLB. Elsewhere, the Cleveland Indians had the bases loaded with no outs in the ninth inning of a 2-1 game. Somehow they didn't score as closer, Jordan Walden, somehow induced the Indians to hit into a home-to-first double-play and then struck out Jason Kipnis to end the game. Talk about skating on Walden's Pond on thin ice. That failure by the Indians cost that pick.

Then there was C.C. Sabathia who was unhittable until the rains came. The first and only hit of the game occurred after Sabathia came back after the delay. Then there was another rain delay and for some ungodly reason, Joe Girardi still brought Sabathia back out in the eighth and it almost cost him the ballgame. Out-of-this-world reliever, David Robertson then did a Houdini act and got the Yankees out of the jam with the lead intact. After watching that game, this Fan has no doubt that Sabathia would have thrown a perfect game if not for the rain delay.

But Sabathia's efforts were not enough to save Tuesday's picks as they barely finished in the red for the third straight day. The week is now five games in the red. This picker needs to fix that. Here are Wednesday's picks and they do not take umpires into account:

• The Indians over the Angels: Who knows how the Indians will rebound from such and epic failure last night in the ninth inning. But Manny Acta seems to be able to motivate this bunch. David (Hassel) Huff goes for the Indians against Ervin Santana.
• The Mariners over the Yankees: It's all set up perfectly for the Mariners to end their losing streak. They have their ace on the mound (Felix Hernandez) who dominated the Yankees in the past and they get to face Phil Hughes, a pitcher who hasn't fooled anyone this season.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: The Tigers have the right-handed hitting guns to offset John Danks and Max Scherzer looked really good last time out against the Twins.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: How do you pick between Livan Hernandez and Javier Vazquez? You close your eyes and pick a name out of a hat. Hey, maybe Gomes will make the difference in this game.
• The Phillies over the Giants: Tim Lincecum didn't want to face Clayton Kershaw so he got the flu. Instead he'll face Cole Hamels. That's better?
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: The Orioles are making a case so far in this series. But Ricky Romero is so due for a win that it's silly. Alfredo Simon goes for the Orioles.
• The Reds over the Mets: What a frustrating team the Reds are! Going against Mike Pelfrey because he's given up 18 homers and the balls fly out of the Great American Ballpark. Bronson Arroyo goes for the Reds.
• The Braves over the Pirates: Expect the Pirates to be fired up and the Braves will probably be missing Brian McCann. But Jair Jurrjens shuts them down. Paul Maholm will be a hard luck loser in this one.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Amazing blown save last night as Elvis Andrus made a critical error. But the Rangers come back to win this one behind the streaking Colby Lewis. Duensing gets the start for the Twins.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: Carlos Zambrano won his last outing, but he still gave up nine hits...against the Astros. Zack Greinke with the win.
• The Cardinals over the Astros: The Cardinals face their supposed nemesis in Bud Norris. But Chris Carpenter has been on a roll. They win this one.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Ian Kennedy! And he gets to pitch in a pitcher-friendly park. Corey Luebke is pretty good too though.
• The Rays over the Athletics: Not liking this game or this pick. Trevor Cahill is usually as bad against the Bay Rays as he is against the Yankees. But James Shields has been great. The thing that makes this tough is that the Bay Rays look dispirited. 
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Hiroki Kuroda has the same luck as Doug Fister. But the Rockies are down and out these days and Aaron Cook gets the ball.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Red Sox over the Royals: Bruce Chen on the chin and the Red Sox win despite John Lackey pitching. Picking the Red Sox these days is nearly automatic.

Yesterday: 7-8

Week: 18-23

Month: 174-154  Not a great month.

Season: 838-704

Games of the Day: 72-43

Ichiro Suzuki - Pride and Sadness

The game between the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees on Monday night was indicative in how far the Mariners have fallen. The game was just as indicative of how far Ichiro Suzuki has fallen. The former Japanese star has played in all but two of the Mariners' 102 games after playing in every single game last year. And while last year showed some slippage in the hitting machine that is Ichiro, this year's version isn't even close. At the age of 37, is this the curtain call?

Watching the game last night, the erect and proud frame of Ichiro is still evident. After he struck out in the first inning, there was still a carriage in his frame as he walked deliberately back to the dugout. But there is no longer the zip in his step or the hop in his play. His grace in the outfield is missing as he plods after balls in the corner and there is no longer the rifle display when he throws the ball back into the infield.

Watching Ichiro, one gets the idea of how a samurai carried himself.  There is the flair of a bullfighter. You never lost sight of the fact that he was carrying the pride of his country in each step and with each pointing of his bat-sword held at the pitcher as he waited for the pitch. Each pitch was a challenge like the charge of a bull. With a swing unlike any we've ever seen in American baseball, Ichiro's bat was like a magic wand. It seemed he could do anything he wanted to a pitcher. The legend continued that he could hit forty homers if he wanted. But it was his speed that set him apart. This generation had never seen that mastery of a bat combined with that blinding speed.

That speed has failed Ichiro. He no longer beats out infield hits. Over the course of his career, an astounding 35 percent of every ball he put in play resulted in him standing on a base. This year, only 29 percent of his batted balls result in a hit. His BABIP was never below .300...until this year. His string of 200+ hit seasons seems sure to end. He would have to find a way to deliver 88 hits in the Mariners' last sixty games. It's possible of course. If he played in every game and got his current average of 4.2 at bats per game, he would have to bat .349 the rest of the season to reach 200 hits. That seemed more possible for a different Ichiro from a different time.

Many have said that Ichiro has refused to hit for power for the sake of his batting average. But with a paltry fourteen doubles, three triples and one homer, his slugging percentage is easily the lowest of his career. At .318, his slugging percentage is 68 points lower than his previous low of .386 in 2008. That season also produced Ichiro's lowest OPS of .747. His OPS this year is .633. Perhaps an even greater indignity is his OPS+ of 82 this season.

No matter what fielding metric you look at, Ichiro Suzuki has slipped. He sits at -3 according to the Fielding Bible. UZR has him at -8.4. Range Runs Above Average has him at -7.9. His range used to be listed at 2.30 or higher. Now it sits at 1.69. That just isn't Ichiro in right field anymore.

Ichiro Suzuki's career has been debated almost since it began. His lack of power and his lack of desire to take a walk at the plate offset his ability to hit, run and field for a lot of evaluaters. And yet, both Fangraphs and Baseball-reference.com have similar WAR computations for him and both systems show that he averaged a WAR of over five a year for his ten big league seasons before this one. He has earned $111 million in his career with the Mariners and if this Fan has done his math correctly, has been about a $200 million player during that time. Power and patience or not, Ichiro has been a great player while drumming up huge interest and business for the Mariners and Major League Baseball.

It is sad to see Ichiro like this. It's sad to see a warrior without the physical ability he once had playing for a team that has been awful for two seasons now. He has not been part of any trade rumors, but wouldn't it be something if there was a last minute deal and Ichiro went to a contender and finished this season with a flourish and in the spotlight?

That probably won't happen. And if it doesn't, do this Fan a favor and when you think of Ichiro Suzuki, don't think of this season. Think about how he burst on the scene in 2001 and won the MVP with his bat, his arm and his legs. Think about the 2,244 hits in his first ten seasons. Think about his 81 percent success rate to go along with his 409 steals. Think about the eight straight seasons scoring more than 100 runs to start his career and the ten straight 200 hit seasons. Think about how since 2001, only thirty total seasons of 200 hits have been recorded and Ichiro has a third of them.

Yes, remember all those things when he makes his acceptance speech in the Hall of Fame a few years from now. Just pretend this season isn't happening.

Game Picks - Tuesday: July 26, 2011

The Twins were one of the picks to win yesterday. Does that give you any idea of how badly the day of picking went? It should. Oh, the Twins only gave up 20 runs on 27 hits and were reduced to pitching Michael Cuddyer in the last inning. Yes, that was a good pick, eh? Another bad pick was the Angels. It appeared to this Fan that the Indians had bellied up. But there is some fight in those Indians yet as they beat the Angels in a game where Dan Haren struck out ten batters. Young Jason Kipnis made his first big league hit count as it was the game winner. Then there was the Red Sox pick. What the heck happened there? Didn't Kyle Davies start that game? And yet the Red Sox scored only one run in fourteen innings and struck out thirteen times. Hmm...

The White Sox were picked against, but they showed they aren't dead yet either. And they started that game against the Tigers by committing two gaffes on infield pop ups that allowed two initial runs to score. Pretty resilient, those White Sox. The Bay Rays lost to Oakland? Once it became a bullpen game, yeah, they did. J.P. Howell now has an ERA over nine. Perhaps the Bay Rays are trying to lose enough to justify those trades they want to make. And then the Reds lost to the Mets. Yeah, the Reds are poised to make a run, right? Apparently not. You have to be able to string some wins to make a run. The Reds don't seem capable of doing so. Game pickers only think they are.

So, there it was. A bad night. The first two nights of this week have now been in the red. Lucy, we have some work to do. With shovel in hand, here are Tuesday's picks:

• The Indians over the Angels: Okay. The Indians beat Dan Haren, so they can beat Jared Weaver right? Well, heck yeah. Cliff Lee lost yesterday. So Jared Weaver can lose. Besides, Josh Tomlin has eleven wins already.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: This picker has to stick with fave, Jordan Zimmermann. After all, he only has a few more starts. Ricky Nolasco goes for the Marlins. He should last longer than a third of an inning this time.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: The law of averages say that the Mariners have to win some time. But they shouldn't against C.C. Sabathia at home. Poor Doug Fister gets the start for the Mariners who are lost at sea.
• The Phillies over the Giants: Great pitching match up of Tim Lincecum versus Vance Worley. Going with the Phillies at home.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: Brandon Morrow is a stud in the making. He has to learn what Clayton Kershaw had to learn. You throw strikes and you last long enough to get wins. Jake Arrieta gets the start for the Orioles.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Flirted with going with the Royals since Danny Duffy was so good his last time out. But, the pick seemed insane in the end. Andrew Miller starts for the Sox.
• The Reds over the Mets: Tough game to gauge. Jonathan Niese can be really good. But picking against Johnny Cueto has bit this picker too often this season.
• The Braves over the Pirates: Yes, the Pirates are a great story. But we have to be realistic. Tommy Hanson is a really good pitcher and he can shut down the Buccos. Meanwhile, Jeff Karstens with his eleven pitch innings, should bend enough to allow the Braves to steal this one.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Can feel a Pavano coming. The Twins seem down. The Rangers are hot. And then along comes Carl Pavano to laugh at this picker. Bring it on. C.J. Wilson stands in his way.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: Ryan Dempster trips up the Brewers and Chris Narveson. Hey, it could happen.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: The White Sox should not have any answer for Justin Verlander. Jake Peavy pitches for the ChiSox.
• The Cardinals over the Astros: It's not that Jake Westbrook should be that great. It's simply that the Cardinals should be the better team. Brett Myers goes for the Astros.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: Dustin Moseley has been bending, but he doesn't break. Joe Saunders can be had. The Padres are playing pretty well.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: It's too bad most of the country has no idea of how great Clayton Kershaw has been this season. Jhoulys Chacin gets the start for the Rockies.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Bay Rays over the Athletics: David Price needs to have an ace-like game. It's about time, right? Brandon McCarthy is vulnerable for the Bay Rays. 

Yesterday: 4-7
Week: 11-15
Month: 167-146
Season: 831-697
Games of the Day: 72-42

Game Picks - Tuesday: July 26, 2011

The Twins were one of the picks to win yesterday. Does that give you any idea of how badly the day of picking went? It should. Oh, the Twins only gave up 20 runs on 27 hits and were reduced to pitching Michael Cuddyer in the last inning. Yes, that was a good pick, eh? Another bad pick was the Angels. It appeared to this Fan that the Indians had bellied up. But there is some fight in those Indians yet as they beat the Angels in a game where Dan Haren struck out ten batters. Young Jason Kipnis made his first big league hit count as it was the game winner. Then there was the Red Sox pick. What the heck happened there? Didn't Kyle Davies start that game? And yet the Red Sox scored only one run in fourteen innings and struck out thirteen times. Hmm...

The White Sox were picked against, but they showed they aren't dead yet either. And they started that game against the Tigers by committing two gaffes on infield pop ups that allowed two initial runs to score. Pretty resilient, those White Sox. The Bay Rays lost to Oakland? Once it became a bullpen game, yeah, they did. J.P. Howell now has an ERA over nine. Perhaps the Bay Rays are trying to lose enough to justify those trades they want to make. And then the Reds lost to the Mets. Yeah, the Reds are poised to make a run, right? Apparently not. You have to be able to string some wins to make a run. The Reds don't seem capable of doing so. Game pickers only think they are.

So, there it was. A bad night. The first two nights of this week have now been in the red. Lucy, we have some work to do. With shovel in hand, here are Tuesday's picks:

• The Indians over the Angels: Okay. The Indians beat Dan Haren, so they can beat Jared Weaver right? Well, heck yeah. Cliff Lee lost yesterday. So Jared Weaver can lose. Besides, Josh Tomlin has eleven wins already.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: This picker has to stick with fave, Jordan Zimmermann. After all, he only has a few more starts. Ricky Nolasco goes for the Marlins. He should last longer than a third of an inning this time.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: The law of averages say that the Mariners have to win some time. But they shouldn't against C.C. Sabathia at home. Poor Doug Fister gets the start for the Mariners who are lost at sea.
• The Phillies over the Giants: Great pitching match up of Tim Lincecum versus Vance Worley. Going with the Phillies at home.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: Brandon Morrow is a stud in the making. He has to learn what Clayton Kershaw had to learn. You throw strikes and you last long enough to get wins. Jake Arrieta gets the start for the Orioles.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Flirted with going with the Royals since Danny Duffy was so good his last time out. But, the pick seemed insane in the end. Andrew Miller starts for the Sox.
• The Reds over the Mets: Tough game to gauge. Jonathan Niese can be really good. But picking against Johnny Cueto has bit this picker too often this season.
• The Braves over the Pirates: Yes, the Pirates are a great story. But we have to be realistic. Tommy Hanson is a really good pitcher and he can shut down the Buccos. Meanwhile, Jeff Karstens with his eleven pitch innings, should bend enough to allow the Braves to steal this one.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Can feel a Pavano coming. The Twins seem down. The Rangers are hot. And then along comes Carl Pavano to laugh at this picker. Bring it on. C.J. Wilson stands in his way.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: Ryan Dempster trips up the Brewers and Chris Narveson. Hey, it could happen.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: The White Sox should not have any answer for Justin Verlander. Jake Peavy pitches for the ChiSox.
• The Cardinals over the Astros: It's not that Jake Westbrook should be that great. It's simply that the Cardinals should be the better team. Brett Myers goes for the Astros.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: Dustin Moseley has been bending, but he doesn't break. Joe Saunders can be had. The Padres are playing pretty well.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: It's too bad most of the country has no idea of how great Clayton Kershaw has been this season. Jhoulys Chacin gets the start for the Rockies.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Bay Rays over the Athletics: David Price needs to have an ace-like game. It's about time, right? Brandon McCarthy is vulnerable for the Bay Rays. 

Yesterday: 4-7
Week: 11-15
Month: 167-146
Season: 831-697
Games of the Day: 72-42

The Confusing Value of Ryan Howard

Ryan Howard has come to be a kind of crucible for player-value arguments. Simply look at the comment section of his player page on Fangraphs, for example, to see the wide variety of views on what Ryan Howard is worth to the Philadelphia Phillies. The most accepted view is that Ryan Howard isn't worth the money he is being paid by the Phillies. And Fangraphs' value system seems to favor that view. According to that site, Howard's play was worth $5.3 million last year and with a hundred games in the books this year, his value isn't that much better at $4.5 million.

Of course, the value-added calculations are based on the overall game of the player and includes batting, fielding and base running, the position the player plays, etc. Ryan Howard will never add value with his base running and his fielding has never been rated highly. But then you see a list on Baseball-reference.com and see that Howard leads the majors in go-ahead plate appearances this season. In other words, during Howard's plate appearances, his team went ahead 25 times or one more than Adrian Gonzalez, a player that is universally seen as having a great season.

So what do we make of Ryan Howard? Runs batted in is a statistic that has truly fallen out of fashion in the value-based community. And yet, it's the RBIs that non-numbers baseball people point to as Howard's great value to his team. This is Howard's eighth season and he's already driven in 823 runs and leads the NL with 75 RBIs this year. So who do we believe? Is Ryan Howard the greatest run producer since Lou Gehrig, or is he simply an overrated and overpaid player? Howard's current WAR of 1.0 is so far down the list of leaders that he's hard to find on the list. Yet, twenty-five times, his plate appearance put the Phillies in the lead, more than anyone else in baseball. Confusing, isn't it?

This author used Howard as an example of players who refuse to beat the defensive shift that is deployed against him. There was a statement made on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball last night that hitting into the shift costs Howard and others some fifteen points on their batting averages. And indeed, Howard is only batting .246 this season and his OBP is off as well from previous seasons. Oh, he's walking just as much, but his batting average is dragging that statistic down.

But let's get back to Howard's ability to plate runs for his team. Over the years, 19 percent of all base runners on base when Ryan Howard had a plate appearance scored as a result of that plate appearance. That is the same percentage as Albert Pujols has in his career. The major league average over that time span has been 15 percent. But Howard's percentage of runners scored from second with no outs is below league average for his career.

What about leverage? Leverage is a calculation that rates plate appearances by how important they are to the game in progress. Close games in the late innings are examples of a high leverage situations. How does Howard fare there?  These are the slash lines for Howard's career in leverage situations:

• High leverage: .300/.393/.617
• Medium leverage: .275/.378/.564
• Low leverage: .262/.356/.525

That seems to show Howard's ability to get it done when his team needs him to do so. Ryan Howard's clutch rating by Fangraphs is fourth in the majors this season. And Howard is 13th in the majors in WPA (win probability added). That's important hitting.

After looking at these statistics and after doing a bunch of reading on what others say about Ryan Howard, this author is just as confused at how valuable a player Ryan Howard is. Depending on what you look at, he's either one of the most important cogs on a contending team or he is one of the most overpaid players in baseball based on his overall value in dollars compared to his contract. So let this post stand as an open ended question. The arguments are always interesting.

Game Picks - Monday: July 25, 2011

Yesterday's tally on the picks was like a prize fight or a professional wrestling match. The picks would go down by 2-5 and then rally back to 5-5 and then take a hit and then land a couple more punches before ultimately losing the fight. The real problem to the picks yesterday were way too many underdog picks. One is probably plenty for any night. But when you pick three, and all three come in wrong, then there is nobody to blame but this old picker.

Oh! And one more lesson learned yesterday: It's okay to pick for your favorites. Dontrelle Willis and Micah Owings have been two of this Fan's favorite pitchers for a long, long time. But both of their starts yesterday seemed like long shots. So the Fan picked against them. Owings got the win and Willis would have gotten the win if Dusty Baker hadn't pitched him one inning too many. But the Reds won the game that Willis started.

It's not a bad schedule for a Monday with eleven games for the day. Here are the picks:

• The Phillies over the Padres: The Fan picked against Roy Halladay and got bit. Perhaps it would be a bad idea to pick against Cliff Lee. Aaron Harang pitches for San Diego.
• The Angels over the Indians: Dan Haren is better than Fausto Carmona, right?
• The Yankees over the Mariners: Sooner or later, the Mariners have to win a game. This one could be it. But it should be another loss as the Yankees are at home. Freddie Garcia against Jason Vargas.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Are the Red Sox on the plushiest schedule right now or what? They go from the Mariners to the Royals and the first pitcher they will see is Kyle Davies. Hide the children. Jon Lester with the win.
• The Reds over the Mets: Big win for the Reds last night and they haven't won two games in a row in over a month. That's silly. Mike Leake over R.A. Dickey.
• The Pirates over the Braves: It's so weird thinking of the Pirates as contenders. But they are and they are a good team. The only worry is that offense. They need a hitter. James McDonald is a stud though and faces Tim Hudson. Should be a good battle.
• The Twins over the Rangers: There are two problems for Derek Holland going into this game. First, he doesn't pitch as well at home. Second, he doesn't pitched well against the Twins. Have to pick against him then. Nick Blackburn goes for the Twins.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: The Fan doesn't know what to make of the teams in the AL Central. How confusing are the White Sox, for example? The Tigers are in first and this Fan predicted before the season that they would end up there, so this pick supports that. Below versus Buehrle.
• The Rays over the Athletics: Both teams had to travel the length of the country after yesterday's game to get to Oakland. Hellickson over Moscoso.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: How weird is it when a pitch for the Rockies is lights out at Coors Field but gets crushed on the road? Yeah, that's weird. But that's Juan Nicasio's season and he is on the road in this one. Rubby de La Rosa goes for the Dodgers.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Cardinals over the Astros: The Cardinals have to win games like this and Kyle McClelland has to be good in them. J.A. Happ goes for the Astros.

Yesterday: 7-8

Week: 7-8

Month: 163-139

Season: 827-690

Games of the Day: 71-42

A Theory a Day or Throw A. J. Burnett Away?

Everyone has a theory as to why A.J. Burnett just can't get himself to succeed. We've been told so many times that he has "filthy" stuff that most are cynical when that line is trotted out again. Some say he has concentration lapses and some say that his emotions get in the way when things aren't going well. For this post, this writer wanted to test a couple of his own observations. One is that he doesn't finish off a batter when he is ahead in the count and the other observation is that he can't close out an inning when he has two outs. Have the eyes failed the stat test again?

Yes and no. The obvious point is that Burnett hasn't been what the Yankees hoped for when they gave him all those dollars on the heels of the Sabathia deal before the start of the 2009 season. Oh, that first year he was pretty good and finished 2009 with an ERA+ of 114 and went 13-9. But hidden in that season was the fact that he earned a little over $11 million that season when the Yankees paid him $16.5 million. And of course he was brutal last year when his overall worth was in the negative numbers at -0.5. That means that the Yankees threw the entire $16.5 million down the rabbit hole.

This year, Burnett is a .500 pitcher with an ERA+ of 98. That's hardly what you'd want from your supposed number two guy in the rotation. But this writer's observation that he can't finish batters off is not accurate. He has excellent numbers when he is ahead in the count by either 0-2 or 1-2. When he gets a batter to 0-2, he only gives up a .362 OPS. And his OPS against is .532 after a 1-2 count. So, obviously, that observation is all wet. It just always seemed that he couldn't put a batter away. Interestingly enough though, if Burnett gets the count to 2-2, a count that should still be in his favor, there is a more than one in six chance he'll walk the batter and his strikeout to walk ratio dives on that count.

But the observation that he can't finish out an inning is dead on. A.J. Burnett has the highest OPS against when he has two outs. In fact his OPS against is 53 points higher than when he has no outs and 61 points higher than when he has one out.  Burnett has given up only three homers when there is no outs, six homers when there is one out and nine homers when there are two outs. Plus, he walks more batters when there are two outs. Why is that?

The other thing that drives Yankee fans crazy about A.J. Burnett is that he simple refuses to protect a lead. When Burnett is ahead in the game, his OPS against is .929. In other words, when Burnett gets a lead, every batter becomes a Robinson Cano. Fourteen of his eighteen homers have been given up when his team is ahead. If that isn't enough to drive you crazy, who knows what is. Let's put it another way: A.J. Burnett has had a lead in the game eighteen times this season in his twenty-one starts and he has only won eight of those games.

Think about that for a moment. He's had the lead in eighteen of his twenty-one starts! And he's won less than half of those games. Wouldn't Doug Fister and Dustin Moseley love to have that opportunity? That statistic alone shows you why A.J. Burnett is the most frustrating pitcher in baseball. When you think he's going to have a good inning and he gets two outs, it blows up. When he has a lead and you think his team has a good chance to win, the lead blows up ten out of eighteen times. That's astounding.

Who knows what the answers are for Burnett. He sure looks like he has good "stuff" when he pitches, but if that doesn't translates to wins, then it's like being a talented writer who can't spell and has no spell checker. It used to be, "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain." Now it's, "Sabathia and then we'll pray for ya."

Game Picks - Sunday: July 24, 2011

Saturday finished off a positive week here in the FanDome. There wasn't a day this week under .500, but the week did end with a bit of a whimper as the last two days were just barely over the .500 mark. Two games particularly rankle. And they rankle because you can actually read in yesterday's post how this picker was making a case for the team that actually won the game. The first was the loss by the Yankees. If you read the picks yesterday, this picker was making a case that Rick Harden wouldn't be intimidated like the rest of Oakland's young pitching. And yet the pick was still the Yankees. Listen to your insides! The same thing happened in the Twins win over the Tigers. The Fan didn't listen to himself and paid the price with a bad pick. Ironically, both losses by the Tigers and Yankees broke eleven game winning streaks against the teams they lost against.

A lot of the other losses were justifiable. The Royals put up a spirited game against the Bay Rays and won in extras. Good on them. Brad Bergesen of the Orioles threw a really good game and was protected by three good relief outings to beat the Angels. After the season Bergesen has been having, this Fan is happy for the guy. The Marlins had a stunning rally after being behind and scored five runs in two late innings to trip the Mets. They earned that win. And, unfortunately for them, the Toronto Blue Jays blew another save and should have beat the Rangers as predicted. But they didn't.

And so we jump into Sunday baseball, this Fan's favorite baseball day of the week. Lots of day games followed by Baseball Tonight at 7:00. Love it. Here are Sunday's picks:

• The Indians over the White Sox: Rained out yesterday and more rain in the forecast in Cleveland today. But if they play the game, Justin Masterson is this Fan's guy. Love the way he pitches. Edwin Jackson goes for the White Sox.
• The Yankees over the Athletics: Bartolo Colon's style will work better against Oakland than some other clubs and though Gio Gonzalez is a very good pitcher, he's terrible against the Yankees.
• The Mets over the Marlins: The Mets rarely lose when Dillon Gee pitches. It's sort of magical. Anibal Sanchez is really good and rarely gets a decision despite good pitching.
• The Orioles over the Angels: Jeremy Guthrie gets in these streaks where he is really, really good. He was great against the Red Sox his last time out. J.J. Hardy has been on fire. Tyler Chatwood goes for the Angels.
• The Padres over the Phillies: This is the upset pick of the day. Tim Stauffer has been superb and Roy Halladay gets to pitch on another really hot day.
• The Mariners over the Red Sox: The Mariners have to win some time and this is the day with Michael Pineda due for a dominant day and facing Tim Wakefield. Pineda will have to throw strikes though.
• The Pirates over the Cardinals: The Pirates salvage the final game of the series behind Charlie Morton. Kyle Lohse hasn't done well against the Pirates in the past and has a problem with one of his fingers.
• The Bay Rays over the Royals: There is a pall over the Bay Rays like they are waiting for the other shoe to drop (trades that is). But Alex Cobb has been very good and should continue that trend against the young Royals. Felipe Paulino has a big arm and pitches well, but rarely gets a win for his efforts.
• The Cubs over the Astros: A Cubs sweep? Yeah, they can beat the Astros. Matt Garza finally gets a win over a winless Jordan Lyles.
• The Giants over the Brewers: This game has a big game feel and we all know how Madison Bumgarner does in big games. Plus, the Giants are at home. Yovani Gallardo goes for the Brewers.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: Ack! Two of the Fan's favorite pitchers head to head! Ubaldo Jiminez figures to win over Fan favorite Micah Owings. Alas.
• The Tigers over the Twins: Rick Porcello has a 2.64 ERA lifetime against the Twins. Francisco Lirano will be waited out by the Tigers.
• The Dodgers over the Nationals: Tough game to pick here. Jason Marquis can be very good. But so can Clay Billingsley at home. Hmm...
• The Braves over the Reds: The heart is with Dontrelle Willis who gets the start for the Reds. But the head says Brandon Beachy gets the win.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Rangers over the Blue Jays: Alexi Ogando is back on his game and should limit the big Blue Jays' line up. Brett Cecil is a mystery.

Yesterday: 8-6 with one postponement.
Last Week: 56-37
Month: 156-131
Season: 820-682
Games of the Day: 71-41