I was correct and I was wrong. I ultimately picked the Giants, which was wrong. But I did say the Giants would be in deep trouble if they did not get the lead off of Jeremy Guthrie in the first five innings. They did not and that was the correct part. Still, it ends my win streak and instead of finally bouncing back to .500 (from the lower depths), I am back to two games under for the post season.
Every game in a short series is important, but this one is really so. If the Giants go down, 3-1, then they are in a heap of trouble. But if they can tie the series, we will have a good long one where anything can happen. Will the Giants get it done? Let's take a look.
The Royals over the Giants: Frankly, I do not trust either Jason Vargas for the Royals or Ryan Vogelsong for the Giants. They have similar meh stats for their careers, but have had success in the post season. In fact, Ryan Vogelsong has never lost a post season game and he has pitched quite a few of them. This post season is the first for Vargas and he has put two good games together even though the home run bug has plagued him a little bit. My big reason for picking the Royals is that Vogelsong simply does not go deep into games. He has averaged 5.77 innings per start this season and hasn't even gotten to the sixth inning in this post season. The middle of the Giants' bullpen is hard to choose at that point. Vargas does go deeper into games and even if he doesn't, the bullpen is killer all the way through. Key match-ups are Vargas against Hunter Pence and Buster Posey and perhaps, Michael Morse. Basically, if the Royals get to the sixth inning tied, they win.
Yesterday: 0-1, Post season: 13-15, Season: 1378-1105