Red Sox should resist extending David Ortiz

This site is well into its eleventh year and for the last six of those, there has been an annual pondering of what the Red Sox should do with David Ortiz. If you don't believe me, just do a search on his name here and you will find them all. The call here has been something like, No, No, Yes, Yes, Heck yes. All of the "Yes" years have included a caution for going beyond two years. Now, we come to year seven of such pondering since Ortiz has hinted publicly that he wants an extension. The answer this year should be, No.

The Red Sox have handled Ortiz in a brilliant fashion. They took a chance that he would bounce back after the stumbling seasons of 2008 and 2009 and limited his contracts to a year or two at most since that time. The lack of long-term deals has worked perfectly and Ortiz for the third time helped the Red Sox win a World Series. His World Series heroics were the stuff of legend and will be discussed for years.

All the while, the Red Sox have protected themselves from the eventual breakdown that is sure to some day waylay the hulking slugger. His current two-year deal had a lower base with bonuses based on how often he was on the field. Ortiz made the max in 2013 to the benefit of himself and the Red Sox. He will again go into 2014 with the $11 million base and can make as much as $15 million depending on how often he plays.

Depending on which stat site you look at, Ortiz has averaged a valuation of $14.775 million over his last four seasons. So Ortiz has earned what he is worth and the Red Sox have not overpaid. Fortunately, no one has come up with a standardized valuation that includes the post season. But still, the deal has worked out for all parties involved.

Ortiz is entering this last year of his contract for his Age 38 season. And, after what he did with his Age 36 and 37 seasons, there is a reasonable expectation that he can repeat something close to those amazing numbers at the plate this year. But the Red Sox have hedged their bets and well they should.

Sooner or later, Ortiz will give in to Father Time. All ballplayers do. Look at Jeter's sad story in 2013 as a reminder of how quickly it can happen. If that wall hits in 2014 for Ortiz, no harm, no foul as the Red Sox have had a wonderful run with their post-season-smashing team icon. If he again performs near 2013 standards in 2014, then they can string it along a year at a time in 2015.

If Ortiz falters, they can end the relationship with a huge celebration for a guy that helped bring the team three titles.

The Red Sox have handled David Ortiz perfectly through the years. They have allowed Ortiz to make a good living while protecting themselves for what will ultimately happen. There is no reason to end that string of smartness now. Despite the giddiness of another title, the Red Sox should resist the euphoria of what just happened, resist an extension and play the final year of Ortiz's contract out and reevaluate at the end of the season.

Nasty boys - The best relief pitcher stuff of 2013

Last year I had this idea that if you added together the value given the pitches a pitcher throws you could rate the pitchers nearly as accurately as other measurements such as WAR, ERA+ and FIP. The results do not match up perfectly, but they are close in most cases. After all, if you throw consistently nasty stuff over the course of a season, the results you obtain with those pitches will lead to success. I have seen others rate the best fastball, the best splitter, the best curve, etc. But I like to add them all together to come up with a total "stuff" ranking.

Fortunately, this is fairly easy to do. Otherwise, I would not be doing it as I am no genius. All I did was go to Fangraphs.com's leaderboard and then go to the PitchF/X tab. And then I go to the Pitch Value tab. I prefer to use the PitchF/X calculations instead of Fangraphs' own proprietary pitch valuations as the latter seems (to me) more accurate for the type of pitch thrown. For example, Fangraphs.com says that Kenley Jansen throws a fastball and that is what they rate. But it is pretty obvious watching him pitch that he throws a cutter, which is what PitchF/X says he throws.

Anyway, once I have the pitch values in front of me, I downloaded the CSV file (Isn't it fabulous these stat sites are so generous with their data?). The CSV opens like a Microsoft Excel file and I can then delete the columns I don't want and do a Sum function to the first pitcher listed on the sum value of all his pitches to come up with a total pitch value. I copy that down for all the pitchers and then do a Sort to be able to see the top and the bottom. I did this for both starters and relievers. In my last post, I gave you my results for the starting pitchers. Today the relievers are rated..

You may wonder why I used the pitch values and not the pitch values per hundred. Unfortunately, the latter does not work for me because the numbers get skewed. For example, a pitcher may have pitched four curves all season. If the four were crappy, then his pitch value per hundred on the curve would be like -25 runs or something. That doesn't work for what I am doing.

Without further ado, I give you the nastiest relief pitchers by pitch value for 2013:

1. Koji Uehara: 27.7
2. Kenley Jansen: 21.8
3. Craig Kimbrel, Joe Nathan: 19.4
4. Greg Holland: 18.8
5. Mark Melancon: 18.3
6. Alex Torres: 18.1
7. Tyler Clippard: 17.7
8. Luke Hochevar: 17
9. Luis Avilan: 16.8

The really interesting part of this list is that each pitcher killed with different pitches. Uehara, the most dominant relief pitcher in baseball in 2013, scored well with his fastball and his split finger was off the charts good. Kenley Jansen killed with his cutter. Kimbrel and Nathan used a combination of the fastball and slider to have great seasons. Nathan had a really great comeback season. Melancon relied on a deadly cutter. Torres and Avilan used a two-seam fastball to great effect.

The list also showed a strong season for Luke Hochevar, a pitcher that never lived up to his starter potential, but found a great home in the eighth inning setting up Holland, who was also terrific.

These guys were nasty good and their combined pitch values really showed how difficult a task batters had facing them.

And, of course, if you see the good, you want to hear about the bad, right? The five relief pitchers with the combined lowest pitch value scores were:

• Carter Capps and Michael Gonzalez with -11.9
• Brandon League with -11.6
• Jose Mijares with -9.9
• Chris Perez at -9.7

No other qualifying relief pitcher scored below -6, so that gives you an idea of how ineffective these relievers were.

Nasty boys - the best starting pitching stuff for 2013

Last year I had this idea that if you added together the value given the pitches a pitcher throws you could rate the pitchers nearly as accurately as other measurements such as WAR, ERA+ and FIP. The results do not match up perfectly, but they are close in most cases. After all, if you throw consistently nasty stuff over the course of a season, the results you obtain with those pitches will lead to success. I have seen others rate the best fastball, the best splitter, the best curve, etc. But I like to add them all together to come up with a total "stuff" ranking.

Fortunately, this is fairly easy to do. Otherwise, I would not be doing it as I am no genius. All I did was go to Fangraphs.com's leaderboard and then go to the PitchF/X tab. And then I go to the Pitch Value tab. I prefer to use the PitchF/X calculations instead of Fangraphs' own proprietary pitch valuations as the latter seems (to me) more accurate for the type of pitch thrown. For example, Fangraphs.com says that Kenley Jansen throws a fastball and that is what they rate. But it is pretty obvious watching him pitch that he throws a cutter, which is what PitchF/X says he throws.

Anyway, once I have the pitch values in front of me, I downloaded the CSV file (Isn't it fabulous these stat sites are so generous with their data?). The CSV opens like a Microsoft Excel file and I can then delete the columns I don't want and do a Sum function to the first pitcher listed on the sum value of all his pitches to come up with a total pitch value. I copy that down for all the pitchers and then do a Sort to be able to see the top and the bottom. I did this for both starters and relievers. Today I'll focus on the starters and tomorrow the relievers.

You may wonder why I used the pitch values and not the pitch values per hundred. Unfortunately, the latter does not work for me because the numbers get skewed. For example, a starter may have pitched four curves all season. If the four were crappy, then his pitch value per hundred on the curve would be like -25 runs or something. That doesn't work for what I am doing.

The problem there is that the amount of pitches and innings thrown do not match for each pitcher. Clayton Kershaw threw like 230 innings or something like that while Matt Harvey threw considerably less. So take that into account. I could have divided the total by innings pitched or pitches thrown, but in the end, I did not. My feeling was that Kershaw maintained his stuff despite the greater innings thrown and thus still deserved any total value he might have been given because of the extra innings.

I know, it is flawed, but then again, I never claimed to be a paid analyst either. I'm just a writer finding things interesting as I go.

Without further meanderings, here are the top ten nasty boy starters with their total pitch value and their fWAR rank in parenthesis:

1. Clayton Kershaw: 56.1  (1)
2. Matt Harvey: 44   (5)
3. Jose Fernandez: 40.9   (19)
4. Max Scherzer: 38.8  (2)
5. Adam Wainwright: 38.1  (4)
6. Madison Bumgarner: 37.4   (26)
7. Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish: 30.5   (35, 10)
8. Cliff Lee: 30.1   (8)
9. Hisashi Iwakuma: 27.8   (18)
10. Chris Sale: 24.9   (9)

Some notes from the list: Kershaw had the most valuable fastball, a great score on his curve and a very good score on his slider. He had a negative value on his change-up. Harvey was one of the few pitchers that had positive marks on every pitch type he threw. I was mildly surprised by Bumgarner and Iwakuma.

Naturally, you are going to want to know the bottom five:

• Joe Saunders: -36.3 Ugh
• Edinson Volquez: -25.2
• Edwin Jackson:  -19.2
• Jeremy Guthrie:  -17
• Ian Kennedy:  -15.9

No real surprises there.

Stay tuned tomorrow for the relief pitcher version.