Sunday, July 13, 2003

Watching the Cubs/Braves game tonight on ESPN really illustrates the difference between a winning pitcher and a losing one. The Cubs pitcher, Carlos Zambrano, had "filthy" stuff and all he had to do is hit spots and blaze the ball as he is capable. Tonight, after his teammate, Tom Goodwin, had brilliantly stolen a run by stretching an error into two bases and then scoring from second on an infield hit, Zambrano walked the very first batter of the very next half inning and of course two runs scored.

Goodwin's heroics would normally spark a team and good pitchers don't let their teams down by letting the other team answer. What surprised me was that the Sunday Night Baseball announcers never mentioned the role the first batter walk had to do with the inning. Two innings later, Zambrano walked two more batters and before you knew what happened, it was 7-1. When you have first class stuff, all you have to do is throw strikes.

On the swing side of that story is pitchers like David Wells who have spectacular winning percentages but don't appear overwhelmingly stunning while doing it. The difference is the ability to stay ahead in the count so that you can keep batters off balance. Shane Reynolds appearance tonight for the Braves showed why he has been a winner. He got behind on some counts and then would throw strikes to allow the Cubs to get hits. But then he would get a ground ball double play or a pop up. Walks kill and they kill regularly.

Pitchers like Wells may give up eleven hits for every nine innings pitched while Zambrano only gives up eight hits per nine innings pitched. But Wells has won 61% of his games in his career while Zambrano has won only 39% of his games. The ability to throw strikes is the difference between winning and losing.

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