Mo Vaughn announced today that he would not play in 2004 and probably not 2005 either. The first base slugger fell victim to an arthritic knee. The announcement, while short of a retirement statement, could mean the end for Vaughn's career. Vaughn had a terrific and productive career and cut a huge and imposing figure at the plate. The Fan would like to propose in a mini-thesis that there have been many Vaughn-like players in baseball history and unfortunately, they have a short shelf life.

The list presented here should give pause to all General Managers who seek to sign future Mo Vaughns to long term contracts. First, let's define "short shelf life": These are good or great players whose effectiveness lasted from ten to thirteen years:

Mo Vaughn - Ten effective to great years
Kent Hrbek - Twelve effective to great years
Willie Horton - Thirteen effective years (and one great one)
John Mayberry - Ten effective to very good years
George Scott - Twelve effective to very good years
Frank Howard - Twelve very good to great years
Boog Powell - Eleven effective to good years
Cecil Fielder - Eleven pro seasons until he declined (counting both Japan and USA)
Jose Canseco - Thirteen effective to good to great seasons
John Kruk - Eight effective to very good years

My thesis also considers that the ponderous size of these players limited their bodies the ability to maintain an effective level for a long period of time. The effect shortened their careers and though some of these players were among the best in their times for a short season, they lacked the ability to last long enough to give them Hall of Fame careers.

And of the Hall of Famers, the interesting pattern persists:
- Harmon Killebrew stayed in baseball for a long time, but he had thirteen great years. After those years, his skills and statistics diminished.
- Frank Robinson was imposing at the plate and had a long Hall of Fame career, but his stats sharply decline after fourteen excellent seasons.

Now I will be the first to admit that the flaw in my thesis is that I can't tell you what age the above players made it to the majors, which would of course affect how long they stayed around. But it seems to me that big, talented, imposing players tend to make it to the majors earlier than some others. I don't remember any of the above players being the "bang around the minors" type of player.

What about big imposing pitchers? Lee Smith? Fourteen seasons. Don Drysdale? Twelve seasons. Bob Veale? Seven seasons. Jose Mesa? Thirteen good seasons. There are more examples I'm sure, but CSI will be on soon.

What the history above would tell me is that if I was considering free agents or a trade to make and it was a big, raw-boned type of player, I would go for it up until the eighth season and then start making one year offers with incentives. It's a shame that these very good to excellent players don't hold up for very long, but their bodies just aren't made to take that many years of wear and tear.

Just ask the Mets.