Thursday, October 30, 2014

Game Picks and preseason predictions wrap up

Let's put a bow on this. The San Francisco Giants are now the oddest dynasty in the history of Major League Baseball. For the fifth straight season I followed and predicted every game and haven't missed a day doing so in three years. Call me the Lou Gehrig of game pickers. I also made some preseason predictions. And we will see how those went. First the game picks.
I must not count very well because the five seasons all have different numbers of games. I remember auditing last year and this year. But I did not audit my results the years before. So those final tallies are a bit dubious to me. After the audit, here are this year's results and how they stack up with past years:
Season       Record        Post Season    Correct Percentage
  • 2014        1373-1115         14-18              .552
  • 2013        1395-1085         21-19              .563
  • 2012        1350-1037         16-20              .565
  • 2011        1386-1078         24-14              .562
  • 2010        1379-1050                                .568
It is very clear that I had my worst season and certainly my worst post season. I should be getting, should I not? An in-law of mine went to court after a dozen or so speeding tickets. The judge looked at the tally and said, "Slow learner, aren't you?"  I guess I am a slow learner too.
Okay, for my preseason predictions, here they are copied with comments:
  • Derek Jeter will play more games than Jose ReyesNailed it. 145 - 143
  • Phil Hughes will win thirteen games for the Twins.  Nailed it. He won more.
  • Albert Pujols puts up a .900 OPS.  Nope. .790
  • The Angels will be the best team in the AL West.  Nailed it.
  • Don Mattingly will say everything is fine between him and Yasiel Puig at least 64 times during the season.  This was a low estimate.
  • Puig will have more steals than TOOTBLANs, but not by much. Wrong. More TOOTBLANS.
  • Billy Hamilton will have an OBP of .305 and steal 80 bases. Reds fans will still think that's better than Choo.  Nope (lower), Nope (lower) and Yup.
  • My wife will call Dustin Pedroia, "Jammy Pants," at least 78 times during the season. She'll call David Ortiz, "Big Poopy," half as many times.  Under.
  • Brian Roberts will play more games than Steve Lombardozzi and have a higher WAR.  Yup and Yup.
  • Chris Davis will hit 38 homers.  Not even close.
  • Ryan Howard will drive in 100 runs and still be worth less than 2.5 wins.  Missed it by five ribbies (95) and yup.
  • The Rangers will come in third place in the AL West.  Nope. Last.
  • I will win the It's About the Money fantasy league and then will not believe it was my first time ever playing.  I came in third out of twelve. Not bad though.
  • Instant Replay will cut down manager ejections by 67%.  It was actually higher this year: 199-187
  • A.J. Pierzynski will still block the plate and get away with it. Probably right.
  • David Robertson will have 40 saves and blow six of them and people will think he's terrible. 39 / 5, so I was close. And yes.
  • The Padres will play over .500 baseball and the Rockies will come in last place. Nope and Nope.
  • Every team in the AL East will finish the season with an 84-78 record.  This was a joke. But the Yankees did have that record.
  • The Cleveland Indians will push hard for the division despite not being able to beat the Tigers.  Sort of.
  • Starlin Castro will not be the starting shortstop for the Cubs by the All Star Break. Wrong.
  • Wil Myers will have a higher OPS than Evan Longoria.  Wrong.
  • John Mayberry will forever be in in RFD (Ryne's freakin' doghouse).  Yup
  • Adam Dunn gets traded by the trade deadline. The Brewers will get him. Right and wrong.
  • Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion will combine for 80 homers.  69
  • Matt Harvey will pitch in September. Wrong.
  • Madison Bumgarner and Stephen Strasburg will really challenge Clayton Kershaw for the NL Cy Young Award. Not really.
  • Tim Hudson will win twelve games for the Giants. Wrong.
  • For the fourth year in a row, I will have no idea who lives in the MLB Fan Cave and that is fine with me.  True.
  • The Twins' home opener will feature music from the movie, FrozenI have no idea.
  • Several White Sox youngsters will have good seasons and give the fan base hope. Yup.
  • For the fourth year in a row, Alcides Escobar will have more stolen bases than walks. Nailed it. Five years in a row!
  • The NL East finish: Nats, Braves, Mets, Marlins, Phillies.  Nailed it!
  • Josh Johnson will come back and pitch a complete game shutout and then hurt himself flinching from a pie in the face.  Alas, no.
  • Randy Wolf will get ten starts someplace.  Four
  • Max Scherzer will again win the Cy Young Award. But Justin Verlander has better pillow talk. Wrong.
  • At least one of Joe Maddon's road trip ideas will be a complete dud. Yup.
  • The Dodgers will have a Kangaroo Court and Zack Greinke won't want to go. No idea what I was thinking here.
  • A GM will get fired this year. Contenders: Seattle's, Dbacks' or Phillies'.  Nailed it. Dbacks.
  • There will be 3,258,393 hyperbolic statements about Derek Jeter this year from broadcast booths around the country.  More like double that.
  • Giancarlo Stanton will hit 35 homers but miss 40 games due to leg injuries. He only missed 17 games because he got hit in the face with a baseball. But he did hit 37 homers.
  • The NL West will finish: Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Dbacks, Rockies.   Flip the Dbacks and Rockies and it's correct.
  • Matt Carpenter will have a slightly disappointing offensive season.  Yup.
  • Buster Posey will win the batting title. He didn't miss by much.
  • Joey Votto will drive in 90 runs and nobody will be happy with him. Nope and Yup.
  • Adrian Gonzalez will still be my least favorite player. Yup
  • Josh Hamilton will have a very good season. Oh gosh, Josh. No. Wrong. Oof.
  • The Mariners will struggle not because of their offense but because of their pitching. Wrong. Offense not good enough.
  • Ryan Zimmerman will play first more than third this year. He did play more outfield than third, so, sort of.
  • The Yankees will trade a catcher by the deadline. Nope.
  • Bill Cowher and Kirk Gibson will create a new reality show and try to out intense face each other. I still like the idea.
  • The Carlos Santana third base thing will work out okay.
  • The Houston Astros will win 74 games.  They won 70. Not far off.
  • The NL Central will finish: Cards, Pirates, Reds, Brewers, Cubs. Flip the Brewers with the Reds and I had it.
  • Ryan Braun will have a great season.
  • The AL Central will finish: Indians, Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Twins. Put the Indians behind the Royals and I would have been right.
  • Ron Washington will bunt no matter what those numbers guys say.  Yup...until he quit.
  • Adeiny Hechavarria will have a slugging percentage over .300 this year. But not by much.  .356. So I would call this wrong.
  • Aroldis Chapman will throw a pitch 100 MPH and staples will be flying everywhere like that witch in the Bugs Bunny cartoons.  I was too afraid to look.
  • Aaron Harang will make Braves' fans pine for the days of Freddy GarciaWrong. Harang was actually pretty good.
  • Freddie Freeman will have a better season than Paul
  • The Padres won't trade Chase Headley because they will be in the wild card hunt. Traded him to the Yankees. Wrong.
  • The AL West will finish: Angels, A's, Mariners, Rangers, Astros. Flip the Astros and Rangers and I had it.
  • Chone Figgins will be a nice story this season. If he was, it wasn't about baseball.
  • Jose Molina will share his framing secret as pretending the baseball is a moon pie. I'll have to ask Hanigan if he got moon pies.
  • Dexter Fowler will have a season to make the Rockies look idiotic.  Eh. Not really.
  • Manny Machado will surprise us all with how many games he plays and how well he does.  Nuh uh.
  • Yunel Escobar will turn back into Yunel Escobar.  Nailed it.
  • The Phillies will work out trades for both Cliff Lee and Jimmy Rollins and both will say no and refuse to go.  Both were offered up and both said they wouldn't go.
  • Tanaka will win rookie of the year and everyone will say the rules need to change. He would have without the elbow thing. But Abreu gets the same argument.
  • PED suspensions will become tougher thereby punishing Hispanic players even more. Have to study.
  • The Rockies will have a problem with pot in the stands. Did they?
  • And last but not least, Mike Trout will again be the best player in baseball and still not win the MVP Award.  He will win the award, I think.
I hope you enjoyed the baseball season and stopping by here on occasion. I will remain active in the off season and I hope you come back and visit often.

No comments: