Adrian Gonzalez's optimistic projections

Adrian Gonzalez has changed as a hitter the last two seasons and that change has not been reflected in his projections from six different sites culled for this post. And unless he reverts back to where he was four years ago, his projections are kind of messed up. Some might say that his time in Boston might have screwed him up a bit and thrown him off his game. But I maintain that some of the signs were there in his last season in San Diego.

Let's start with his walk rate. From 2008 until 2011, 95 of his 2,783 plate appearances were intentional walks. That is a 3.5 percent walk rate all by itself. And partly because of the intentional walks and other walks that were not intentional but were just as intentional (if you know what I mean), his walk rate was inflated. If you look at his entire career, subtract his intentional walks from his walk total and he has walked 8.2% of the time.

And yet his walk rate projected by the projection systems for 2013 is anywhere from a low of 8.9% to a high of 10.6%. This would seem to indicate that the projections expect him to be intentionally walked at least in double digit numbers.

But will that be the case? He was only intentionally walked five times in all of 2012. And he was only walked once intentionally in his 157 plate appearances for the Dodgers. As a result, his walk rate fell to a career low, 6.1%.

And there is more to this equation. Starting in 2010 in his last year with the Padres, Adrian Gonzalez's plate discipline has gotten lost a bit. In 2009, Gonzalez swung at 23.1% of the pitches he saw out of the strike zone and his total swing rate was 44.7%. In 2010, those figures rose to 31.8% (O-swing) and 48.8%. In 2011, they went up again to 35.5% and 49.2%. The progression continued into 2012 when those numbers went up again to 37.3% and 51.4%.  In other words, his patience at the plate has deteriorated to the point where his O-swing rate was the highest of his career and his total swing rate was the highest its been since 2005.

Obviously, Gonzalez can reverse those numbers and go back to being patient at the plate again. But he is trending against that and a four year slide doesn't seem that easy to break.

The other thing that looks optimistic to me is his ISO projections. After five years in a row of having an ISO well over .200, it fell to .164 last season. All of the projections expect that number to bounce back. None of them expect it to bounce back to where it was, but the range is from a low of .189 to a high of .211.

There are two things to look at when looking at ISO. First is the fly ball percentage and the second is the homer to fly ball percentage. Gonzalez has averaged a fly ball percentage of 37.4% for his career. But has been lower than that for the last two seasons.

His homer per fly ball percentage peaked in 2008 and 2009 with both seasons over 20%. The last three seasons have been 16.4%, 16.4% and then 9.6% last season. So he is hitting less fly balls and less of them are going over the fence. Unless that trend stops and reverses itself, how can his ISO go up?

Obviously, I could be all wet here. Adrian Gonzalez could regain his patience at the plate and hit more fly balls and have more of those fly balls go over the fence. But those factors have been trending in the reverse direction since his last season in San Diego. I'm not saying that Adrian Gonzalez is not still a dangerous hitter. He is. But the trend is that he is not as dangerous as he once was and his projections are not yet reflecting the direction he has been going.

What the Padres Get

Many baseball fans are gnashing their teeth that the powerful Boston Red Sox snatched away the Padres best young player. While we can debate whether the Padres should have kept him for another season to see if they could again compete, let's for now at least concentrate on what they received. According to reports, they get: Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes and a player to be named later. Here is a run down of these new Padres:

Casey Kelly: Boston's first round draft pick in the 2008 draft, Kelly is the best prospect in the Red Sox system, rated a five start prospect. Kelly is a shortstop who is also a pitcher, more likely the other way around. In his first year in the Red Sox system, he hit more homers than he gave up as a pitcher. He has three pitches that he can throw for strikes with a fastball currently at 89-93. His future appears to be as a pitcher. He pitched at Double A, Portland this past year and he gave up a lot of hits, but his strikeout and walk rates looked good and he was fairly stingy with homers allowed. The hits are a bit of a concern. With the Padres history of developing pitchers, Kelly should be a good major league pitcher. Kelly is 21 and at 6'3" he is a little slighty at 195 pounds.

Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo was not drafted until the 7th Round in 2007, but he is only 21 and has already been named one of the Red Sox best prospects. He bats left and throws left and he's a big kid at six foot, three and 220 pounds. Rizzo has slugged nearly .500 his last two years in the minors with 25 homers and 100 RBI in both seasons. He strikes out a lot and could be a bit more patient at the plate. He bats left and throws left and as a first baseman, he's not going to remind a lot of people of Gonzalez with the glove. Baseball Prospectus rates him as a three star prospect but says he could develop into a top notch power hitter in the majors.

Reymond Fuentes: Fuentes was the best player in Puerto Rico in 2008 and was the Red Sox Number 1 draft pick in 2009. According to BP: "Multiple scouts use the word "explosive" when describing Fuentes. He has fantastic bat speed with a lot of plate coverage, and consistently centers balls on the bat while using all fields. Scouts think he'll develop gap power with double-digit home-run production once his skinny frame fills out. He's a 70 runner on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, which helps him wreak havoc both in center field and on the basepaths." He is raw though and it will take some time to develop into a major league player. In Class A in 2010, Fuentes put up the following slash line: .270/.328/.377. Not overly exciting numbers, but he did steal 42 bases. His strikeouts weren't too bad, but he wasn't very patient at the plate. But he's only 19 years old and has his future in front of him.

The old player to be named later: You know how that goes...

Again, we could spend this time debating if the Padres should have or should not have traded Adrian Gonzalez. Personally, this Fan thinks it's a sad development. But the Padres got what are considered three of the top six prospects in the Red Sox system including two former Number 1 picks. It would have been nicer if the Padres could have gotten talent they could use right now. Prospects are always a fighting against the odds proposition. But if all develop the way the scouts and the experts predict, the Padres got a haul. It's just too bad they had to lose such a class act and local hero.

One More Look at National League MVP

The two names that grab all the headlines for National League MVP are Joey Votto and Albert Pujols. The two are not only fighting for their team's chances in the NL Central, but also for personal glory in the Triple Crown categories. Both are having monster seasons. Votto has emerged to superstar status while Pujols is doing what Pujols always does. You can forget about other candidates such as Torres for San Francisco (slick fielding still hasn't grabbed the throat of voters) and Ryan Zimmerman (plays for a losing team). The other candidate that has to be mentioned is Adrian Gonzalez.

One of the biggest obstacles in determining the value of the three first basemen is the complete incompatibility of Fangraphs and baseball-reference.com when it comes to glove ratings. Just for an example, Fangraphs rates Mark Teixeira as a -6 fielder, or worse than Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder or Garret Jones. That seems a little dubious to this writer. baseball-reference.com rates Teixeira's fielding at a plus 2. That's an 8 point swing in value between the two sites. How do you figure that? Do you split the difference? What do you do with it? The Fan tried to do a  search on those who compare the two sites, and could find none (quickly at least). So maybe someone can help here.

But it is a big difference maker. For example, Fangraphs rates the three players in WAR thusly: Votto - 6.0; Pujol - 6.0 and Gonzalez at 4.8. That valuation clearly dumps Gonzalez out of the picture. But baseball-reference.com rates them thusly: Gonzalez - 5.7; Pujols - 5.6 and Votto at 4.8. The big difference is in the fielding category where B-R rates Gonzalez much higher than Fangraphs does.

One other thing that should play into voters minds is where Gonzalez plays half of his games. His home park is not friendly to hitters and it clearly shows in the splits. Here are the home/away splits for the three players:

Joey Votto
Home: .306/.397/.528    15 homers
Away: .345/.446/.634    16 homers

Albert Pujols
Home: .352/.444/..648   17 homers
Away: .290/.387/..563   17 homers

Joey Votto
Home: .280/.392/.463    10 homers
Away: .324/.388/.576    17 homers

It seems that Gonzalez pays a big penalty in where he plays at Petco Park for half his games. That brings his offensive values way down. It seems reasonable to state that if Votto played half his games in Cincinnati or St. Louis, he would come close to his away numbers.

Some other numbers for you:

wOBA: Votto - .440; Pujols - .423; Gonzalez - .385
Line Drive Percentage: Votto - .19.2%; Pujols - 18.2%; Gonzalez - 19.1%
BABIP: Votto - .361; Pujols - .305; Gonzalez - .323.   (this would seem to suggest that Votto should slow down)

Another thing to consider is relative worth to the batting order. Pujols has Holliday behind him. Votto has Rolen (having a great season). Gonzalez has...uhh...nevermind. Managers haven't taken to intentionally walking Votto. He's only gotten 4 such free passes thus far. Albert Pujols has been given a lot of respect in that he has 31 intentional bases on balls. But Gonzalez is pretty close with 22 of his own. Joey Votto has hit 21.3% of his team's homers. Pujols has hit 27.4% of his team's homers. Gonzalez has hit 25.7% of his team's homers. Gonzalez is tied with Pujols in getting 13.1% of his team's hits. Votto has 12.7% of his team's hits.

Not doubt that all three players are having fantastic seasons and are a major part of their team's run for the playoffs. If you go completely by Fangraphs, Votto and Pujols are the only two viable candidates. But if you look at baseball-reference.com, Adrian Gonzalez is right in the mix.

Adrian Gonzalez - The Star You Never Heard Of

Most media outlets are based on the east coast and as such, little focus is paid on teams like the Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants or the San Diego Padres. Sure, once in a while some high profile players such as Junior Griffey, Barry Bonds or Trevor Hoffman will bring one of those organizations to light. But answer this: When is the last time the San Diego Padres were on national television? Yeah, the Fan can't remember either. So it is no surprise that one of the league's best players excels outside the spotlight. He is a slugger named, Adrian Gonzalez.

Gonzalez is now 27 and in the prime of his baseball career. Drafted in the first round by the Florida Marlins in the 2000 draft, he somehow found his way to the Texas Ranger organization where he saw limited activity in 2004 and 2005. It seems they had a first baseman there by the name of Mark Teixeira. So the Rangers traded him to the Padres.

The Padres play in one of the more famously pitcher oriented parks. And yet the past three seasons have seen Adrian Gonzalez increase his slugging percentage and his home run total. He hit 24 in 2006, 30 in 2007 and 36 last year. The Fan was perusing the league leaders a couple of days ago and saw that Gonzalez was leading the majors in homers. The Fan's response was probably typical of most fans: "Really!?" Yup. He's hit 19 thus far and is on pace to eclipse last year's total.

The last three seasons have also seen increases in his walk total, his OPS+, his RBI total and his Runs Scored total. Again, his early season starts this year all indicate that he will rise for the fourth straight year in all of those categories. On top of all that, he won a Gold Glove for his work at first base and it was no fluke. His Range Factor, RTOT and Fielding Percentage are all above league average.

And the guy just seems to love playing baseball. He played in the Caribbean League for Mexico and starred for Mexico in the WBC. In what has become a really nice story, he also has the added bonus of playing with his older brother, Edgar, who plays second (among other positions) for the Padres. Edgar isn't the player Adrian is, but he is useful and after playing with Edgar for years on Mexico's squad, Adrian suggested to the Padres that Edgar could help them and they picked him up. Edgar batted .274 in 325 at bats last year. He is struggling this year though.

Adrian Gonzalez is probably the second best first baseman in the league behind Pujols and has eclipsed Berkman who held that title for many years. He is a force at the plate and in the field and is only getting better. Maybe someday soon, more fans will know about this great player in San Diego. Hey, if the Fan finally noticed, others will too.