Taking Rick Reilly's point to the max

Rick Reilly, the writer for ESPN.com, recently caused a lot of conversation with his piece, "Guilt by Association." And the conversation is understandable because the piece was all about newly elected managers, Bobby Cox, Joe Torre and Tony LaRussa getting a pass into the Hall of Fame because "the three managers being inducted oversaw at least 34 players who've been implicated as PED users and never noticed a thing wrong." Naturally, any conversation that includes PEDs leads to polarizing views. Half of Twitter is shouting, "Right on!" While others are saying it is the worst thing ever written.

While my position on the PED players and era is firmly established in the, "I don't care" category and do not believe in banning any players or managers from the Hall of Fame, you might think that this piece will fall on the bashing Rick Reilly side of things. But I am not going to do that. This is America after all and everyone is entitled to their opinion. It was not long ago that everyone was piling on Rob Neyer for something he said, and yet, he was bashing Reilly today. 

Instead of focusing on the writer and on his intent or moralistic leanings here, I would rather focus on the logic of what he is saying. And if I paraphrase the entire thing, then he is saying in a nutshell that if the players are not getting a pass on the PEDs they may or may not have used, then the managers who were in charge of those players should not get a pass either.

In one aspect, he is right in that players did things they should not have done and the managers may or may not have known they are doing those things. So by either turning a blind eye or at worst, not paying attention, they are guilty by association.

So that should then mean that no manager from the PED era should ever make it into the Hall of Fame because perhaps as high as 60 to 80% of all players in the game were probably using. If you take Reilly's logic to the max, shouldn't that be the case? Forget about it, Jim Leyland or Joe Maddon or Mike Scioscia or any others that might have a case in the future.

If you are going to make this argument, then you have to take it all the way. The common belief is that all segments of the baseball society fell down the rabbit hole in the PED era. The scouts, the commissioner, the league presidents, the managers, the general managers, the trainers, the union, the publicists, the agents, and yes, the writers and broadcasters all had to know that something was not right in the game and yet it happened anyway. They were all complicit.

Take Reilly's assertion to the maximum and Bill Madden of New York, Nick Peters of San Francisco, Rick Hummel of St. Louis, Tracy Ringolsby of Denver and Peter Gammons should not have gotten a free pass to the J.G. Taylor Spink Award. 

Madden covered New York sports including many of the same players Joe Torre is being accused about. Peters certainly witnessed the Barry Bonds superhero show. Hummel should be just as complicit as LaRussa. Ringolsby was writing when Matt Williams was playing and others in Denver. And nobody knew more people or had more connections in the game in his heyday than Peter Gammons. So take those on too, Mr. Reilly.

Speaking of Matt Williams: Now that he is a manager, what is going to happen if he wins ten World Series in his managing career? What a mess that will be, eh?

And what of broadcasters who often traveled with these players and stayed in the same hotels. Should Jack Buck have gotten the Ford C. Frick Award? He called McGwire's homers after all. What about Eric Nadel who was voted in this year after his lifetime of broadcasting the Rangers. Did one broadcaster cover more PED users than Nadel? Bob Uecker has covered Ryan Braun's career since the beginning. Should "Uke" be a Frick Award winner?

No, this blame and punishment thing can go on and on and thus it is all pointless. You cannot erase history by executing all those who participated in the bad things that happened. You cannot have a Hall of Fame that does not include the best players of their era. You cannot have a Spink Award without the best writers and the Frick Award without the best broadcasters.

Let it go. The numbers are staying. There are no asterisks. The players that created them, the managers who managed them and the writers and broadcasters that breathlessly reported them all need to be drawn in the times that they played, managed, wrote and broadcast. Blame does not get us anywhere. Heck, even the commissioner is going to be in the Hall of Fame someday. My point and response to Rick Reilly is not to blast him but to simply remind him that the entire game of baseball, including those who covered and broadcast it, are guilty by association.

Which MLB AL managers should and will be fired

Whether it is fair or not, many managers each season pay for the sins of their teams. Failed expectations, disasters or dashed dreams usually do the trick. Those dismissals usually happen during the season or directly after. The season has been quiet with only Charlie Manuel getting the ax. That was certainly a surprise, but understandable considering how listless the Phillies were playing. So that leaves the after-season. Who will face the chopping block once the season is over? What follows is a list of American League candidates followed by a prediction and one writer's opinion.

Robin Ventura - The two-year Ventura experiment should probably be put to rest. Ventura never actually aspired to manage this team and his hiring was out of the blue. Ventura's laid back ways were lauded last year but have fell with a thud this season. While it is true that his team was poorly constructed with only Adam Dunn batting above league average (as strange as that seems), Ventura should be put back out to enjoy the rest of his life. Should. Will.

Ron Gardenhire - The Gardenhire era in Minnesota has probably gone on long enough. The Twins have no immediate solutions and seem destined for another tough year or two. Why not start fresh? Plus, from this vague seat of observation, it seems that Gardenhire's reach and philosophies extend throughout the organization and they are not working. The Twins cannot continue with pitchers incapable of striking people out no matter how good they are at limiting walks. Should. 50/50.

Mike Scioscia - Much has been written in the last few days about the situation here. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports seemed to indicate that GM, Jerry DiPoto, will get the ax and the blame here. But a meddlesome owner has not helped DiPoto and in his defense, he never has had the chance to have his own guy in the dugout. If DiPoto had a numbers manager like Joe Maddon, things might be interesting. Instead he has Scioscia who is about as old school as it gets. There has to be clashes there. But Scioscia will win out. Should. Won't.

Ned Yost - This is Yost's tenth year as a manager and this year will be the first year that he has a chance to finish with more than 83 wins. Fairly or not, Yost will get some of the blame for the lack of development at the Major League level of some of the Royals' young offensive players. Expectations were high before the season with the addition of James Shields and others. The Royals are improved, but not by much and are below their Pythagorean win-loss record. Should. Will.

John Gibbons - No team had higher expectations entering the season. They were the darlings of the preseason picks. But reality has been cruel in Toronto and Gibbons' one year return to the Toronto dugout might be the cost for the disappointment. While it is easy to point to injuries in the rotation, the team seemed listless for most of the season, lacked spark and even Jose Reyes seems muted in personality. Should. Will.

Eric Wedge - This is a confusing one. Wedge, of course, just suffered a mild stroke, so we will have to see how that plays out. The Mariners' record is actually better than their run differential should be (the basis of the Pythagorean win-loss stat). He just seems so blah though. Should not. 50/50.

Bo Porter - What chance did Bo Porter have this season? One Yankees infielder was more expensive than his entire team. His team jumped to a new league, played an impossible schedule and had little talent. But despite it all, the Astros remain fun to watch and play with enthusiasm. If four or five of these young players can develop in the Majors instead of in the minors, they could turn into something. Plus, all those top round draft picks will help. Porter has done a good job in a bad situation. Should not. Will not.

The view from here is that the rest of the AL managers will be safe and rightly so. Tomorrow, we will look at the National League.

Brewers Make a Bold Move

The Milwaukee Brewers look very smart today. While spurning the chance to sign a big time manager like Bobby Valentine, the Brewers went to the deep well of California Angels' coaches by signing Ron Roenicke as their next manager. While unlike the choice of a team like the Mariners (who signed Wedge as their manager), baseball teams all over seem to be making very clear and logical choices in new field leaders. Farrell was a great hire by the Blue Jays. Fredi Gonzalez is a good choice for the Braves. Mike Quade seems like the right choice for the Cubs and now the Brewers. Why Roenicke, you ask?

Mike Scoscia has become one of the standard bearers for managers in Major League Baseball. He has taken teams with arguably less talent than some of his rivals to the playoffs numerous times in the last decade. Along the way, he has provided his coaches with a solid foundation to go and lead other clubs. Need convincing? Okay, how about Bud Black, who coached for Scioscia and came whisker close to getting to the playoffs in 2010. How about Joe Maddon, the Tampa Bay Rays' manager, who used to coach for Scioscia? Maddon has only become one of the most creative and brilliant managers in baseball right now. And Roenicke has worked more closely with Scioscia than any of them.

Ron Roenicke started as the Angels' third base coach and for the last few years has been their bench coach. As a result, he's been Scioscia's right hand man. Of course, that is no guarantee that Roenicke will succeed. Success as a manager depends on talent, communication and motivational skills and...well...at times, luck. Players need to stay healthy and others have to perform at their talent level, etc. But if the Fan were a rooter for the Milwaukee Brewers, today would be a pretty exciting day.

Angels Run Appears to Be Over

For the first time since 2006, the AL post season will probably not include the Angels. It seems fitting that the rebirth of the Orioles under Buck Showalter also doubled as a requiem for Mike Scioscia's Angels. Showalter began his reclamation project with a series sweep of the proud old team and for once, even Scioscia's magic can't save this season.

Scioscia, who has had one of the greatest managerial runs in history the last five years (his Pythagorean win/loss record is amazing) continued that run this year as the team is two wins better than they should be. And they hung in there for half of the year as they refused to die gracefully. But the weight of their lack of talent and the aging of a few key players brought the team down at last. Now 9.5 games out of first place and even behind the Athletics in the standings, only a miracle the likes of which we have never seen, could revive any hopes for the Angels this year. And frankly, they just don't have the talent to pull off that miracle.

Two key regulars the Angels counted on were Bobby Abreu and Hideki Matsui. Both former Yankees and winners. Both could be counted on in the clutch. Both could be counted on for a high OBP and smart at bats. But age has caught them from behind and both will end up the year in the league average category. You have to hand it to Brian Cashman to avoid a sentimental signing of Matsui after he won the World Series with his heroics. That's what good GMs do. The Angels took the bait and unfortunately, it didn't work out.

Abreu was kept one year too long too but it is more understandable. In the past couple of years, it seemed that Abreu defied his age. He still stole bases, he still put up .400 OBPs. But Abreu gave everyone a sneak peak at his decline in last year's post season. He could not catch up to good pitching and he was invisible. The Angels have to see this as the last year Abreu will be even marginally effective.

Torii Hunter has been a great fit for the Angels since the very beginning. He's had two of his very best years for the Angels and his heroics this year are magnified because he had so little help around him. His 131 OPS+ follows last years 129. He's been terrific. But he is 34 years old too and his age caught up with him in the field. After having one of his best seasons in the field last year, he fell off to severe negative numbers this year. This week, the Angels announced that Hunter was moving to right to let young Bourios take over center.

The previous move pushes Abreu to left (he's been a lousy right-fielder for a very long time) which is okay for the rest of this year. That knocks Juan Rivera out of the line up, but Rivera, though a nice player, isn't really anything more than a role player who is solidly league average at the plate. He did have one good year in 2006 but got hurt the following year and has been just okay since.

To say that the Angels' infield has been disappointing would be a gross understatement. Chone Figgins may be showing the world that he played with mirrors when with the Angels, but he was a darn sure sight better than anything the Angels have now. Losing Kendry Morales at first was a huge blow and the Angels haven't been able to come close to replacing his production. Howie Kendrick was thought to be a budding star, but he's somewhat weak in the field and he's less than league average with the bat. He also has only 18 walks in over 450 plate appearances. His double-play mate, Erick Aybar is slick with the glove, but carries an 89 OPS+. But it's third base that has been frightful.

You have to give credit for the Angels giving Brandon Wood every opportunity to prove he belonged in the big leagues. But the 25 year old now has 420 plate appearances over four years and his lifetime batting average is .181. He never walked and he struck out a lot. His 10 OPS+ this season is sad. It's hard to understand. Wood was a first round draft pick (2003) and has a career .536 slugging mark in the minors. But he couldn't put it together and who knows where he goes from here.

His replacements have all been terrible. It hasn't mattered if it's been Maicer Izturis or Kevin Frandsen or now, Alberto Callaspo. They've all been less than league average. The Angels will have to see how Callaspo does down the stretch, but look for them to be scouring high and low for a third baseman next year.

But despite all of the above, the real difference for Scioscia's team this year compared to years past is pitching. The Angels made a calculated gamble that Scott Kazmir could be fixed and could again be a good pitcher in the AL. Their gamble folded badly as Kazmir was terrible. Saunders had better years (thought he's always going to be league average) but now he's gone off to Arizona. Weaver has been great. Santana has only been average and Pineiro was good most of the time until he got hurt.

But as disappointing as the rotation has been--especially the bottom of it--the bullpen has been a real letdown. Brian Fuentes isn't K-Rod. Not even close. And he leads the bullpen regulars in OPS+ at 118. For a closer, that's not impressive at all. The rest of the bullpen? Well, if Scott Shields got into 35 games, that's about 25 too many.

This year, the Angels are 12th out of 14 AL teams in earned runs allowed. Last year, it was ninth, which doesn't seem like much of a difference. But it's enough of a difference to make all the difference.

The big question is what the Angels should do from here. It's not like they can keep Abreu and Matsui in their diminished capacity. Morales will be back, but there isn't a whole lot of help available in the high minors. The Angels will have to get their checkbook out and make some real savvy signings because otherwise, it is hard to see this team competing next year either. But with Mike Scioscia at the helm, you can never take the Angels at face value. They are always better than on paper.

Angels Back in First Place

For those of you hoping this would be the year that the Angels faltered and that somebody else would win the AL West, yesterday was a sad day. The Angels climbed back into their familiar perch after a terrible start and have done it while winning nine of their last ten while the Rangers and Athletics have been scrounging around, both losing six of their last ten.

After watching the Angels do this year after year, you can't help but give props to their manager, Mike Scioscia. If he isn't the best manager in baseball, who is? Every year they clearly break the sabermetric models getting outscored, out pitched, out hit and yet year after year, they end up in first place.

Let's take this year for example. They are tenth out of fourteen AL teams on On Base Percentage. They only have two starting pitchers they can count on. Their bullpen is a complete mess. And here they are in first place. They have been outscored at home and still have a 16-13 record there.

The big key for the Angels is that they hang in there and they do well within their own division. They are 12-6 against AL opponents and that certainly makes up the difference. The only good teams they have beat are the Blue Jays, but they beat up on bad teams.

Simply put, they are amazing. They are 12th in the league in fielding percentage, they have a team negative number for fielding efficiency, they can't throw out base stealers, their infield has featured three guys with OPS+ figures of 80, 81 and 2 (!), and here they are in first place.

The Angels do hit homers. They are fourth in the league in homers and fourth in the league in doubles. Both of their catchers are hitting really well and Torii Hunter is having another really good year. And let's not forget, they have won nine of ten AFTER losing Kendry Morales.

Gnash your teeth if you must, but until the AL West can muster up a team that can win consistently, these Angels just won't go away.