Projecting Mike Stanton

Quick quiz: Who had the higher home run to fly ball ratio in 2011 between Mike Stanton and Jose Bautista? Why yes, that would be Mike Stanton, who led the majors in that category among all qualified batters. In fact, Stanton's home run to fly ball ratio was higher than Bautista's in 2010 too. The problem (if you want to call it that) is Bautista hits a lot more fly balls than Mike Stanton. Among all power hitters in the game in 2011, only Prince Fielder and Michael Morse had lower fly ball rates than Stanton. All of that plus a brand new ballpark makes projecting Mike Stanton in 2012 very difficult.

Let's start with the new ballpark. The Marlins' new stadium has larger dimensions than Sun Life Stadium. The left field line is ten feet further. Left center is thirteen feet further and dead center is eight feet further. But as most of us know, when Mike Stanton hits a homer, dimensions don't matter. Mike Stanton does not hit cheap homers. What we don't know is how balls in the air will react in the new stadium when the roof is closed. So again, projections are a bit difficult.

Stanton's plate discipline is confusing as well. He certainly walked more in 2011 than he did in 2012. His walk rate rose to 11.6 percent from 8.6 percent the previous season (his first). But Stanton swung at more pitches out of the strike zone in 2011, 33.6 percent compared to 32.1 percent the year before. Not surprisingly, that increase also meant Stanton swung and missed at a higher rate in 2011 than he did in 2010 (15.2 percent compared to 12.8 percent). Stanton's 166 strikeouts in 2011 are a bit alarming.

Perhaps part of his problem in 2011 was that he spent the early part of the season batting sixth in the line up. When you only have weakness batting behind you for 58 games, you're not going to get pitched the same when you are further up in the line up. His strikeouts decreased somewhat when he moved up to third and fourth in the line up, but his average slumped. He hasn't yet learned to succeed in high leverage situations and times when runners are in scoring position. His numbers in both were poor. He will need to improve in those areas to justify staying that in those prime positions in the line up.

A return to form for Hanley Ramirez and the addition of Jose Reyes should help as pitchers would have much more to think about than just Stanton. Logan Morrison also had a disappointing season and if he comes back with a better season, than much more protection is afforded Stanton. Stanton is a lot like Bautista in that both players have a similar lack in line drive percentage. Both players are well below league average in hitting ropes. But again, Bautista is much more adept at hitting the ball in the air. Stanton could dramatically increase his home run total if he could improve his fly ball rate. It's hard, however, to increase a batting average stuck in the .250 to .262 range when you only hit 16 percent of your balls in play on a line.

As can be expected by now from Bill James projections, the projections are bullish for Stanton in 2012. James has Stanton hitting 39 homers and raising his average by twelve points. Fans projections are equally bullish. This Fan hates to be a wet blanket, but Stanton has to hit more balls in the air to hit more homers and he has to hit less ground balls and more line drives to raise his batting average (if his BABIP remains static).

Mike Stanton will only be 22 in 2012 and will continually have to adjust as pitchers adjust to him. He didn't have a whole lot of growing time in the minors as you can well imagine. He is getting his training at the major league level. How will Mike Stanton do in 2012 and in his new ballpark? We are all excited to find out because the guy is intriguing as heck.

Mike Stanton And Occasional Thrills

Mike Stanton hit another bomb last night. The young slugger has a flair for hitting some of the most monstrous shots in baseball. Monday night's shot was a laser that hit the third deck in St. Louis so hard that it ricocheted back on to the field almost as quickly as it left. Mark McGwire, sitting in the Cardinal dugout, had to appreciate the bomb and remember when he used to hit them like that. Stanton has hit four home runs now in this still young season. Each one has been hit further than 400 feet. Mike Stanton is only 21 years old. Imagine when he learns how to hit.

First things first. Stanton needs to change his name and use his given name of Giancarlo. While that first name doesn't fit the Stanton surname, at least we wouldn't think of that lefty reliever that Joe Torre and Art Howe ground into dust in New York. There have been three Mike Stantons now in this Fan's lifetime. That's too many. Giancarlo would set him apart. All that said, if Stanton keeps hitting shots like he hits them, he will be the Mike Stanton that everyone remembers.

And no, Mike Stanton hasn't yet learned to hit in the major leagues. In 485 major league plate appearances, Stanton has hit a steady .260. He strikes out 32.5 percent of the time (34 percent overall). His line drive percentage of 15.4 percent shows a guy that doesn't center the ball often enough. He has negative pitch values on any kind of pitch that has a wiggle in it. From what the stats are showing, why anyone would ever throw him a fastball is beyond this writer's imagination. His only positive pitch numbers come against the fastball. And yet opposing pitchers are throwing him nearly 60 percent fastballs.

This is not a slam by any means against Stanton. The kid has increased his patience at the plate and is swinging at 28.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, a nice improvement over the 32.1 percent last year. While his batting average has stayed the same this year as last, his on base percentage has risen from .326 to .360. That shows signs that he is figuring things out a bit. But he has to be more consistent to attain the superstar label that everyone projects for him. Right now, he's streaky. He's hit two homers in three days and on Monday, hit a homer a triple and a single. If he can get his contact rate up, then he will be a star.

Regardless of all that, Giancarlo Stanton...umm...Mike...has become quite the show. His slugging percentage is north of .500 for his short career thus far and when he hits the ball, he does some damage. With power like his, he's one of those players you just have to watch on a regular bases in hopes of seeing one of those rockets hit off his bat.

It's Getting Exciting for Mike Stanton

This Fan got to see a lot of Mike Stanton when he first came up for the Florida Marlins. He looked so stiff at the time that he was like a big flamingo with a bat. He struck out so often that it was almost a given. He struck out 34 times in his first 21 games. On July 3, his line sat at: .207/.258/.316. Woof, those were ugly numbers. A lot of teams would have sent him back to the minors. But the Marlins kept putting him out there. And even though the Marlins aren't playing any better recently, you can't blame it on Mike Stanton any more. He's now showing why he was such a highly touted prospect.

Stanton has eleven hits in his last four games. He's hit four homers in his last three games including two solo shots on Friday night that accounted for all of the Marlins' runs in a losing cause. Compare his current line to the one listed in the previous paragraph: .270/.351/.557! This is the guy they hoped would be this good.

Stanton was drafted in the second round in 2007. It's hard to believe now that 73 players were drafted ahead of him. But then again, if you look at some of the names ahead of him in that draft, it was a talented group. There were guys like David Price, Matt Wieters, Tommy Hunter, Brett Cecil, Jason Heyward and Matt LaPorta just to name a few. But there were also guys like Clayton Mortenson and Ross Detwiler in there. Stanton seems to be overlooked over a lot of the guys ahead of him in that draft.

Stanton managed to get into 17 games the year he was drafted, but did little to talk about. However, in 2008, he destroyed the South Atlantic League where he hit 39 homers and finished with an OPS of .993. He moved up twice in 2009 and finished with a combined 28 homers and an .842 OPS. He struggled when he was moved up to the Double A team. And so he returned to Double A in 2010 and playing for the same team in the same league (Jacksonville in the Southern League) he just killed the ball. He had 21 homers in 53 games and had an OPS of 1.171 when he was called up to the Marlins.

Stanton is only 21 years old. He's built like a linebacker at 6'5" and 235 pounds. And if you include the 14 homers he's hit for the Marlins thus far, he has hit 35 homers already this year. And he's not just a good bat. He's settled into the right field position for the Marlins and his fielding numbers are excellent. He has a plus arm and has already thrown out four runners.

Looking at Stanton's splits, his platoon splits are just fine meaning he hits equally well against lefties and right-handers. He has excellent clutch ratings as he has a 1.342 OPS when there are runners in scoring position with two outs. His high leverage OPS is .863 which is excellent. He struggles against power pitchers and crunches finesse pitchers. He's a bit of a puzzle with his hit trajectory. When he hits the ball, 69% of the time are either straight away or to the opposite field. But when he pulls the ball, his OPS is a whopping 1.868. And he is a much better hitter on the road (so far) than he is at home.

Mr. Stanton appears to be the real deal. His major league numbers mirror what he has done in the minors and at 21, he may have a better future than Jason Heyward. He strikes out way too much with a 34% strikeout rate to plate appearances. But other than that, this kid is going toe be really good.

Youth on Parade

Spent the day traveling from Maine to Florida yesterday and thankfully, everything went smoothly and the Fan and his lovely wife are safely ensconced in what will be our home for the next three weeks. That meant that last evening, the Fan got to watch some Florida baseball which was conveniently provided by the interleague schedule that pitted the Marlins versus the Bay Rays on the Bay Rays' television telecast (the better of the two). It was a day that rookie, Sean Rodriguez, got a big hit with all his family in the stands. But that fact was ruined by the Marlins' uber-phenom, Mike Stanton, hitting his first major league homer...a bomb of a grand slam that tilted the game to the Marlins.

The grand slam was fairly amazing too. It was a 94 MPH fastball from Matt Garza on the outward part of the plate and about arm pit high. Stanton's swing was lightning quick and he turned on that pitch and deposited it in the left field seats. The Fan remembers thinking at the time that all the hype about this guy was accurate. Stanton also made a really great play in right field on a ball slicing away from him toward foul territory. His long lope made up a lot of ground getting to that ball.

But Florida baseball wasn't the only place where young phenoms strutted their stuff. In Pittsburgh, Cleveland's Carlos Santana went two for two plus two walks and he drove in a run. One of the hits was his fourth double (already). Unfortunately, on the other side of the field, Pedro Alvarez still doesn't have a hit since being called up by the Pirates (just their luck). Hopefully the team will stick with him and give him a chance.

Up in Chicago, the Cubs' Tyler Colvin had a big game going two for four with a walk. He scored two runs and drove in three. And he hit his eighth homer. He's now batting .312. His teammate, Starlin Castro, went one for three with a walk. His one hit was a double. Despite the phenom tandem, the Cubs lost mostly due to poor defense from Baker and Lee.

Up in New York, Ike Davis went one for four with an RBI in the Mets' win. Francisco Cervelli, not really in the phenom category, but a good young catcher, went two for four in a losing cause.

In Detroit, Brennan Boesch went 0 - 3 but did walk and scored a run in the Tigers' victory. He still has a 1.007 OPS. Pretty impressive debut!

Toronto's Brandon Morrow out dueled Barry Zito and kept the Blue Jays in the game long enough to scratch out three runs and win the game. Boston's 22 year old Felix Doubront overcame some early defensive lapses and earned his first major league win in his first big league start.

Texas had a good day for their young talent as Justin Smoak had a big day going two for five with the two hits being a homer and a double. He drove in four runs and scored two. He's started slowly, but he's going to be really good. Meanwhile, in the bullpen, young Darren O'Day pitched a perfect eigth inning and lowered his ERA as a reliever to 1.92 including a WHIP of 0.92.

In a battle of pitching phenoms, Baltimore's Brian Matusz pitched brilliantly for six innings but was matched pitch for pitch by San Diego's Wade LeBlanc. It became a battle of the bullpens and San Diego will win those every time while the Orioles will lose that every time. It went as predicted.

And last but not least, Stephen Strasburg put on another show. This time against the White Sox and not the lowly Pirates, Strasburg gave up a run on two hits in the first inning, but was brilliant the rest of the way. He pitched seven full innings while striking out ten batters and issued no walks. His WHIP after his first three big league starts? How about 0.78. Unfortunately, he got a no-decision as his team couldn't muster more than a run. His buddy and fellow first round pick, Drew Storen, pitched admirably for two innings but got the hard luck loss.

Everywhere you looked around baseball, young players were doing exciting things. It sure is a fun time to be a Fan, no?

Expectations

There is never any way of knowing how it will go for the "Can't Miss" players when they start their careers. Starlin Castro is holding up just fine. Ike Davis has had a slump after a fast start, so the jury is still out. Cameron Maybin, Mike Wieters and others have disappointed. So it's hard to predict how Stephen Strasburg and Mike Stanton will do. But it sure will be fun to find out.

On Monday night, the Fan was confused on what day it was. That happens when you work for yourself sometimes. At 7:00 PM ET, the Fan fired up the laptop and got on MLB.TV to watch Strasburg and then laughed at himself for the premature enthusiasm. But that's what this debut is doing to fans all over the country. The Fan can't remember any one player who has created this much of a buzz before ever throwing a pitch.

How will Strasburg do? It's hard to know. A lot will depend on if he throws strikes or not and how many high counts he gets himself into. The Nationals will be protecting his pitch counts so don't expect more than five innings, six tops. But if he has control issues early, he won't even be around that long.

The Nationals were smart to start him against a team like the Pirates. No knock on the team from Pittsburgh, but they do have less of a line up than some of the other teams around the NL. If you're going to learn how to swim, it's always best to do it in the shallow end of the pool.

What can be predicted is that there will be a huge audience as interest is amazingly high. And yeah, this Fan will be one of the ones watching.

Who Will Sit When Mike Stanton Arrives?

The Marlins will call up Mike Stanton on Tuesday making him the second most anticipated young player to start his career on Tuesday night. The other is some pitcher from the Nationals. Stanton, all of 20 years of age, has a 1.167 OPS in AAA and is regarded as a can't miss prospect. But when he gets the call, which outfielder will sit?

Cameron Maybin has been playing a great centerfield despite not hitting much and is a former first round draft pick. Do you give up on him? Cody Ross has been one of the Marlins's best hitters this season (.819 OPS and batting .300) and plays good defense in right field. Chris Coghlan had a slow start this year, but last year's rookie of the year is batting .520 in June and has raised his average to over .260. Last year's great success for him came mostly in the last two thirds of the season. Do you sit him?

The move will already cost super defender, Brett Carroll his roster spot. Too bad the guy can't hit because there may not be a better outfielder in the majors. But be that as it may, none of the others seem to warrant being benched in favor of Stanton. Stanton has played mostly right field in the minors, so that seems to mean that Ross is the guy who will have to move? Will Ross move to centerfield, which would weaken the defense?

It will be interesting. Perhaps the Marlins will have a four-man outfield with Stanton playing every day and the other three playing three out of every four days. It doesn't seem right to give up on Maybin. Coghlan is a potential superstar and Cody Ross is a solid player that gives the team chances to win. We'll just have to see how all this plays out.