While we all catch our breath with the exciting news that, as of this late day in the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates maintain sole possession of first place in the National League Central, the reality is this is still a four team race with the Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds and those Pirates all in the thick of the battle. The bunch certainly qualifies the division as a horse race. What will be the factor that pushes a team to the top when all is said and done? All the teams have similar bullpens now that the Brewers have K-Rod. All boast decent rotations, but not dominant. All have a few holes in their respective line ups. So what will win this thing? Might it be defense?
The Pirates have prevented the most amount of runs, but have also scored the least of the four contenders. The Reds, Cardinals and Brewers all have mashers in the line up surrounded by question marks. The Reds, Cardinals and Brewers all have decent rotations that seem to even themselves out. The only real separator for these teams is defense. The Brewers and the Cardinals are near the bottom in the majors in unearned runs allowed and defensive efficiency. The Pirates give up a lot of unearned runs due to their relative youth and inexperience. But they can go get the ball too with a high defensive efficiency. The one team that seems to have an strong edge in defense is the Reds.
The Reds may seem to be treading water and if Twitter buddy @diamondhoggers is to believed, the team seems to lack character and leadership. This writer has to smile at the tweets as the tweeter is about as passionate about his team as anyone around. But despite being under .500 and despite too many games where they do seem to sleepwalk, this team is only four games out of first place. And defense might be their ticket to the prize.
The Reds have given up only 22 unearned runs all season. Compare that to Pittsburgh's 39, Milwaukee's 44 and the Cardinals' 42 and that is a huge difference. Only the Phillies and the Braves have given up less unearned runs. Cincinnati is third in the majors in defensive efficiency and only trails the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox in that category. The Pirates are eleventh in defensive efficiency while the Cardinals are 23rd and the Brewers 27th. The Pirates are third in the majors in Baseball Prospectus' Total Zone Runs Above Average while the Reds are fourth. The Brewers fare better in this category and are 17th while the Cardinals are 27th.
Baseball Info Solutions has another stat called Defensive Runs Saved Above Average and in that statistic, the Reds are third, the Pirates are seventh, the Brewers are 17th and the Cardinals are 24th. And if you like the good old fashioned fielding percentage stat, the Reds are third, the Pirates are 20th, the Cardinals are 23rd and the Brewers are 25th.
Cutting across the entire fielding spectrum, the Reds clearly outshine over the rest of the division in fielding. The Reds did not score lower than fourth on any given category. The Pirates score well in several defensive metrics but do not measure up to the Reds with the gloves (and the feet and arms).
This division will be very interesting and exciting to watch. The Reds out pace the other three in offensive WAR but lag behind the other three in pitching WAR. The Pirates are right in the middle of the road on offense and pitching. The Cardinals are better on offense than all but the Reds but are below the Pirates and Brewers in pitching. The Brewers are right behind the Pirates in pitching WAR but just ahead of them on offense. With all that stuff seeming to even all these teams out, perhaps it will be the defense that sways the final outcome.
The heart is with the Pirates, but the head is still with the Reds.
Showing posts with label National League Central. Show all posts
Showing posts with label National League Central. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Who Will Win the NL Central
The Cincinnati Reds just swept the St. Louis Cardinals in what is currently the best rivalry in the major leagues. The Reds then won their first game against the Cubs. The Cardinals are dealing with defensive issues and their ability to close out games. The Milwaukee Brewers dug themselves a hole but have won seven of their last ten games. With the Pirates, Astros and Cubs seemingly in no-man's land, the National League Central appears to have three contenders in what could be a serious competition for the top spot all season long. Who will win this thing?
Let's take a look at all three teams and try to appear into the future:
The Cardinals:
The Cardinals very well could have four or five more wins in the win column if they could finish out a game. Their bullpen is their biggest problem and they are next to last in the National League in bullpen ERA. Chris Carpenter has looked a lot like A. J. Burnett of late and is losing emotionally as well as physically. The defense behind him is part of the problem. They are 15th of 16 teams in fielding percentage and 14th in fielding efficiency. With off season moves that weakened their defense in right field and at shortstop, guys like Carpenter are just going to have to live with suspect defense and not let that get to their heads.
The good news is that bullpens are the easiest things to fix on any team. Yeah, you need the arms to get the job done, but a trade or two for the right arm or a dip into the minors could turn things around there in a hurry. One of the things observed from this distance is that there are no defined roles going on over there. Closers are flopping around and so are the set up innings. Tony LaRussa needs to set roles and stick with them for a while. Unfortunately, at the age of 38, Ryan Franklin looks finished and should be released.
The other good news is that the Cardinals can rake offensively. Yes, they have holes in the line up, but they are second in the National League in runs scored per game and that's without Albert Pujols yet to be Albert Pujols. You know he'll get going sooner or later. Berkman has been an on base machine. Matt Holliday is terrific offensively and Colby Rasmus has a .393 on base percentage. Yadier Molina is batting above .290 which is a nice bonus. They also have nice bench players in Allen Craig, John Jay and Daniel Descalso. The offense will be fine.
The Cardinals' starting rotation is solid from one to five. Jaime Garcia is an ace and everybody falls in line pretty well after him. Carpenter will have to get better. Kyle McClellan has been a nice surprise and Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook will keep you in the game more times than not.
A suggestion: The Cardinals should flip Ryan Theriot and Nick Punto. Punto is a proven shortstop who has shown himself to be one of the better defensive infielders in the league. Theriot simply isn't a good shorstop. He's adequate at second and that's where he should be playing. This Fan has never been a big believer in either player's offensive ability, but if you're going to have two weak-hitting infielders, at least put them in positions to best perform on the field.
The Reds:
The Reds have overtaken the Cardinals as the most prolific offense in the National League. They lead the National League in runs per game. Joey Votto is a superstar with the top WAR in the league and he hasn't even started hitting homers yet. Drew Stubbs has arrived and has hit seven homers and has stolen thirteen bases in fourteen attempts. Brandon Phillips is simply terrific on offense and very good on defense. This Fan doesn't know if Jay Bruce will ever be a superstar, but he's a good offensive player who will win you some games with his bat. Scott Rolen can still contribute offensively if you can keep him on the field. And, the Reds have the best offensive catching tandem in the league for the second year in a row. They will need to figure out if Jonny Gomes or Chris Heisey is the best option in left field. Gomes has huge holes in his offensive game but is scary when he gets on a roll. Heisey is more consistent offensively. Both are liabilities defensively.
Defense is one of the Reds' strong suits. They are currently fourth in the NL in defensive efficiency and fielding percentage. It all starts at shortstop. This Fan doesn't care if Paul Janish ever hits. He currently has an OPS+ of 60. But they won the division last year with a shortstop who hit just as poorly and Janish is a wonder with the glove. If this Fan was the manager, Janish would play every day for the rest of the year.
The one worry with the Reds is pitching. They are 14th of 16 National League teams in earned runs allowed and 14th in walks allowed. Their starting rotation can be very good if they get them all lined up and performing solidly. Getting Johnny Cueto back and pitching well has been a bonus but he and Edinson Volquez will always be question marks for this writer. They always teeter between stardom, injury and lack of consistency. Homer Bailey has won all three of his starts since coming off the DL. Bronson Arroyo is a warrior. Travis Wood has pitched better than his 5.01 ERA suggests. He'll be fine.
The bullpen is effective at the back end but thin. It's even thinner now that Aroldis Chapman has lost it and is now listed as among the hurt. A lot will depend on if Francisco Cordero can stay this good as a closer and if Nick Masset and Logan Ondrusek continue to be run into the ground with so many appearances. They need help. Bill Bray has been a nice LOOGY thus far.
This Fan has no suggestions for the Reds. They seem to have their pieces in place and just need to stay healthy.
The Brewers:
The Brewers dug a deep hole with a bad start to the season by Yovani Gallardo and the loss of Zack Greinke to injury. But as mentioned, they have won seven of their last ten and things are starting to fall in place. All Greinke has done since returning is strike out twenty batters in fifteen innings with only two walks. Woot! His return will solidify the starting rotation. Randy Wolf should be the only weakness of the group from here on out. Gallardo will get it going and Shaun Marcum has been everything they hoped he would be.
The offense hasn't really shown a lot to this point outside of Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Richie Weeks. But Casey McGehee has started to hit of late and Jonathan Lucroy has been a nice surprise behind the plate. Mark Kotsay is getting way too many at bats and that points out how thin the offense is outside the five guys mentioned earlier in this paragraph. Center field has not produced, especially since Nyger Morgan can't get out of the trainer's room and shortstop is a disaster. Enough said there. Taylor Green down in Nashville might be a better shortstop option. He's not much better offensively, but at least he'd walk once in a while and can't be any worse defensively. There's not much help available otherwise in the minors unless you give Matt Gamel one more shot or give Brendan Katin a chance.
The bullpen is a big worry on this team. When LeTroy Hawkins and Sergio Mitre lead your bullpen in ERA, that's pretty scary. John Axford's 1.442 WHIP isn't what you'd want from a closer, but perhaps he'll settle down. The bullpen lacks power beyond Brandon Kintzler. They need to get Zach Braddock back. Kameron Loe his getting way too many appearances and that's not a good thing.
Conclusions:
The Brewers could come on if their rotation gets hot behind Greinke. Braun and Fielder are one of the best three-four punches in the league and their line up is potent from two to five. They are too thin though and would appear to be a long-shot to win the division. The Cardinals have a clear edge in Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan. Their starting rotation has to hold up and they need to keep Lance Berkman healthy. The Reds have questions in their bullpen and rotation but will hit the ball consistently. If the Fan had to call it, the edge would go to the Cardinals if they can get their bullpen settled down. They are just as good as the Reds in offense and both of their starting rotations should offset. The Reds have the edge on defense, but the Cardinals are going to win this thing.
Let's take a look at all three teams and try to appear into the future:
The Cardinals:
The Cardinals very well could have four or five more wins in the win column if they could finish out a game. Their bullpen is their biggest problem and they are next to last in the National League in bullpen ERA. Chris Carpenter has looked a lot like A. J. Burnett of late and is losing emotionally as well as physically. The defense behind him is part of the problem. They are 15th of 16 teams in fielding percentage and 14th in fielding efficiency. With off season moves that weakened their defense in right field and at shortstop, guys like Carpenter are just going to have to live with suspect defense and not let that get to their heads.
The good news is that bullpens are the easiest things to fix on any team. Yeah, you need the arms to get the job done, but a trade or two for the right arm or a dip into the minors could turn things around there in a hurry. One of the things observed from this distance is that there are no defined roles going on over there. Closers are flopping around and so are the set up innings. Tony LaRussa needs to set roles and stick with them for a while. Unfortunately, at the age of 38, Ryan Franklin looks finished and should be released.
The other good news is that the Cardinals can rake offensively. Yes, they have holes in the line up, but they are second in the National League in runs scored per game and that's without Albert Pujols yet to be Albert Pujols. You know he'll get going sooner or later. Berkman has been an on base machine. Matt Holliday is terrific offensively and Colby Rasmus has a .393 on base percentage. Yadier Molina is batting above .290 which is a nice bonus. They also have nice bench players in Allen Craig, John Jay and Daniel Descalso. The offense will be fine.
The Cardinals' starting rotation is solid from one to five. Jaime Garcia is an ace and everybody falls in line pretty well after him. Carpenter will have to get better. Kyle McClellan has been a nice surprise and Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook will keep you in the game more times than not.
A suggestion: The Cardinals should flip Ryan Theriot and Nick Punto. Punto is a proven shortstop who has shown himself to be one of the better defensive infielders in the league. Theriot simply isn't a good shorstop. He's adequate at second and that's where he should be playing. This Fan has never been a big believer in either player's offensive ability, but if you're going to have two weak-hitting infielders, at least put them in positions to best perform on the field.
The Reds:
The Reds have overtaken the Cardinals as the most prolific offense in the National League. They lead the National League in runs per game. Joey Votto is a superstar with the top WAR in the league and he hasn't even started hitting homers yet. Drew Stubbs has arrived and has hit seven homers and has stolen thirteen bases in fourteen attempts. Brandon Phillips is simply terrific on offense and very good on defense. This Fan doesn't know if Jay Bruce will ever be a superstar, but he's a good offensive player who will win you some games with his bat. Scott Rolen can still contribute offensively if you can keep him on the field. And, the Reds have the best offensive catching tandem in the league for the second year in a row. They will need to figure out if Jonny Gomes or Chris Heisey is the best option in left field. Gomes has huge holes in his offensive game but is scary when he gets on a roll. Heisey is more consistent offensively. Both are liabilities defensively.
Defense is one of the Reds' strong suits. They are currently fourth in the NL in defensive efficiency and fielding percentage. It all starts at shortstop. This Fan doesn't care if Paul Janish ever hits. He currently has an OPS+ of 60. But they won the division last year with a shortstop who hit just as poorly and Janish is a wonder with the glove. If this Fan was the manager, Janish would play every day for the rest of the year.
The one worry with the Reds is pitching. They are 14th of 16 National League teams in earned runs allowed and 14th in walks allowed. Their starting rotation can be very good if they get them all lined up and performing solidly. Getting Johnny Cueto back and pitching well has been a bonus but he and Edinson Volquez will always be question marks for this writer. They always teeter between stardom, injury and lack of consistency. Homer Bailey has won all three of his starts since coming off the DL. Bronson Arroyo is a warrior. Travis Wood has pitched better than his 5.01 ERA suggests. He'll be fine.
The bullpen is effective at the back end but thin. It's even thinner now that Aroldis Chapman has lost it and is now listed as among the hurt. A lot will depend on if Francisco Cordero can stay this good as a closer and if Nick Masset and Logan Ondrusek continue to be run into the ground with so many appearances. They need help. Bill Bray has been a nice LOOGY thus far.
This Fan has no suggestions for the Reds. They seem to have their pieces in place and just need to stay healthy.
The Brewers:
The Brewers dug a deep hole with a bad start to the season by Yovani Gallardo and the loss of Zack Greinke to injury. But as mentioned, they have won seven of their last ten and things are starting to fall in place. All Greinke has done since returning is strike out twenty batters in fifteen innings with only two walks. Woot! His return will solidify the starting rotation. Randy Wolf should be the only weakness of the group from here on out. Gallardo will get it going and Shaun Marcum has been everything they hoped he would be.
The offense hasn't really shown a lot to this point outside of Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Richie Weeks. But Casey McGehee has started to hit of late and Jonathan Lucroy has been a nice surprise behind the plate. Mark Kotsay is getting way too many at bats and that points out how thin the offense is outside the five guys mentioned earlier in this paragraph. Center field has not produced, especially since Nyger Morgan can't get out of the trainer's room and shortstop is a disaster. Enough said there. Taylor Green down in Nashville might be a better shortstop option. He's not much better offensively, but at least he'd walk once in a while and can't be any worse defensively. There's not much help available otherwise in the minors unless you give Matt Gamel one more shot or give Brendan Katin a chance.
The bullpen is a big worry on this team. When LeTroy Hawkins and Sergio Mitre lead your bullpen in ERA, that's pretty scary. John Axford's 1.442 WHIP isn't what you'd want from a closer, but perhaps he'll settle down. The bullpen lacks power beyond Brandon Kintzler. They need to get Zach Braddock back. Kameron Loe his getting way too many appearances and that's not a good thing.
Conclusions:
The Brewers could come on if their rotation gets hot behind Greinke. Braun and Fielder are one of the best three-four punches in the league and their line up is potent from two to five. They are too thin though and would appear to be a long-shot to win the division. The Cardinals have a clear edge in Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan. Their starting rotation has to hold up and they need to keep Lance Berkman healthy. The Reds have questions in their bullpen and rotation but will hit the ball consistently. If the Fan had to call it, the edge would go to the Cardinals if they can get their bullpen settled down. They are just as good as the Reds in offense and both of their starting rotations should offset. The Reds have the edge on defense, but the Cardinals are going to win this thing.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Candidates for Unexpected Seasons - NL Central
This morning in this space, a short series was started on just what baseball teams and players can surprise us this upcoming season. Who will be the next Aubrey Huff or Jose Bautista? As mentioned in the first installment, if the Fan could know for certainty who or what team that would be, it would be genius. But alas, there is no genius here. Just speculation and musings on who could be this year's big surprises. Those surprises are out there and that's one of the reason why each new season is as highly anticipated as the last. This post covers the National League Central Division. Let's start with the Cubs.
Chicago Cubs - If this team contended in 2011, that would certainly be a surprise. While their payroll is high and the fans are diehard, the team still feels too dysfunctional to be taken seriously. They did make some improvements such as Matt Garza, so you never know. If the Cubs were to contend, Garza would have to be one of the surprises with a big season. Garza has been tantalizing, but has simply never been able to consistently have a great season. Will it be this year in a new league? Could be. If Alphonso Soriano had one more big year in him, that would be a surprise.
St. Louis Cardinals - The Cardinals could be capable of anything this year. It all comes down to pitching of course, but the Cardinals have hurt their pitchers by seriously weakening their defense. LaRussa has pulled it off before, but if this team won the division, nobody would be more surprised than the Fan. As for players, if Lance Berkman had a big year after last year's snooze-fest, then that would be a major surprise. Berkman can be a dynamic and effective offensive weapon. The question is whether he still has that in him or has time passed him by.
The Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers have put all their chips on the table by acquiring Zack Greinke and Marcum at the expense of most of their minor league talent. If the Brewers did NOT contend this year, that would be a major surprise. It would also be devastating to the organization that has done a fabulous job of building the fan base the last few years. Players who could surprise are Jonathan Lucroy, the young catcher who made his debut last season. He showed about as much patience at the plate as a three year old that has to go to the bathroom. But his minor league stats show lots of patience. He could be a big surprise if he gets 400 at bats. Matt Gamel is going to play multiple positions in 2011. At least that's the plan. If he finally does anything in the big leagues, that would be a surprise.
Houston Astros - This team was a surprise in the second half as they put together an excellent run after starting out as the worst team in the National League. It really would be a surprise if they approached .500 baseball this season. It was a pretty big surprise the success that Brett Myers put together last year. If he were to come close to those numbers again would be a huge surprise. It would be a big surprise if Nelson Figueroa has actually come into his own as a pitcher at the age of 37. But last year he was pretty darn good in the second half. Now that he will start in the rotation, if he stays that good over 30 starts would be a major surprise.
Cincinnati Reds - Their division win last year was one of the year's big surprises. Among the team's surprises were two catchers that hit so well, Joey Votto going all superstar on us and Jay Bruce finally gelling into a fine every day player. Oh, and the Fan would consider Arroyo's season a big surprise as well. Who could surprise us this season? For one, Drew Stubbs could become a star this season. He showed some promise last year once he got his chance, but was inconsistent. If he were to approach a .900 OPS, then that would be a really nice surprise.
Chicago Cubs - If this team contended in 2011, that would certainly be a surprise. While their payroll is high and the fans are diehard, the team still feels too dysfunctional to be taken seriously. They did make some improvements such as Matt Garza, so you never know. If the Cubs were to contend, Garza would have to be one of the surprises with a big season. Garza has been tantalizing, but has simply never been able to consistently have a great season. Will it be this year in a new league? Could be. If Alphonso Soriano had one more big year in him, that would be a surprise.
St. Louis Cardinals - The Cardinals could be capable of anything this year. It all comes down to pitching of course, but the Cardinals have hurt their pitchers by seriously weakening their defense. LaRussa has pulled it off before, but if this team won the division, nobody would be more surprised than the Fan. As for players, if Lance Berkman had a big year after last year's snooze-fest, then that would be a major surprise. Berkman can be a dynamic and effective offensive weapon. The question is whether he still has that in him or has time passed him by.
The Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers have put all their chips on the table by acquiring Zack Greinke and Marcum at the expense of most of their minor league talent. If the Brewers did NOT contend this year, that would be a major surprise. It would also be devastating to the organization that has done a fabulous job of building the fan base the last few years. Players who could surprise are Jonathan Lucroy, the young catcher who made his debut last season. He showed about as much patience at the plate as a three year old that has to go to the bathroom. But his minor league stats show lots of patience. He could be a big surprise if he gets 400 at bats. Matt Gamel is going to play multiple positions in 2011. At least that's the plan. If he finally does anything in the big leagues, that would be a surprise.
Houston Astros - This team was a surprise in the second half as they put together an excellent run after starting out as the worst team in the National League. It really would be a surprise if they approached .500 baseball this season. It was a pretty big surprise the success that Brett Myers put together last year. If he were to come close to those numbers again would be a huge surprise. It would be a big surprise if Nelson Figueroa has actually come into his own as a pitcher at the age of 37. But last year he was pretty darn good in the second half. Now that he will start in the rotation, if he stays that good over 30 starts would be a major surprise.
Cincinnati Reds - Their division win last year was one of the year's big surprises. Among the team's surprises were two catchers that hit so well, Joey Votto going all superstar on us and Jay Bruce finally gelling into a fine every day player. Oh, and the Fan would consider Arroyo's season a big surprise as well. Who could surprise us this season? For one, Drew Stubbs could become a star this season. He showed some promise last year once he got his chance, but was inconsistent. If he were to approach a .900 OPS, then that would be a really nice surprise.
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