Tim Wakefield's Place Among Knuckleball Pitchers

Tim Wakefield retired yesterday after a long career, most of it spent with the Boston Red Sox. Wakefield, of course, was a knuckleball pitcher and member of a small club of such pitchers in the history of Major League Baseball. Knuckleball pitchers are an oddity and we baseball fans love them. Why though? Perhaps we love knuckleball pitchers because it doesn't take an elite arm to throw one. Such pitchers can pitch on little rest and seemingly, with little effort. Knuckleball pitchers can pitch well into their forties. And, of course, we have a Bob Uecker's wonderful description of how to catch one ("Wait until it stops rolling and pick it up").

Whenever a player has played as long as Wakefield has, we usually try to put such a career into perspective. And, no, Tim Wakefield is never going to be a candidate for the Hall of Fame. So we can't write that kind of post. After all, Wakefield's closest comps on baseball.reference.com are Chuck Finley and Livan Hernandez. Since knuckleball pitchers are a rarity, we can put Wakefield's career in perspective compared to other knuckleball pitchers over the history of baseball. That's what this post will do.

The hardest thing to do to compile such a list is first determining who the knuckleball pitchers were through history. Fortunately, such a list exists and was culled as the starting point of this little research project. Using this list of names and looking up all the careers of the players on the list, and going by accumulated rWAR, Tim Wakefield is the ninth best knuckleball pitcher ever. Here is the list:

1. Phil Niekro - 96.8 rWAR
2. Ted Lyons - 58.8 - 19.2 of his rWAR was accumulated before he started throwing the pitch in 1929.
3. Eddie Cicotte - 49.7 - banned from baseball after the 1920 season for his part in the Black Sox scandal  of 1919.
4. Dutch Leonard - 45.6
5. Wilbur Wood - 45
6. Hoyt Wilhelm - 41.3 - Only a starter one season. The rest was in relief.
7. Tom Candiotti - 41
8. Charlie Hough - 37.5 - Did not become a starting pitcher until his thirteenth big league season.
9. Tim Wakefield - 31.6
10. Joe Niekro - 30.2 - Also compiled some WAR before converting to the knuckleball full time.
11. Bob Purkey - 26.5
12. Hal Brown - 16.6
13. Johnny Niggeling - 15.6

While we're at it, we might as well list the best pitching years ever by a knuckleball pitcher. Wakefield won't make this list. His best season was 1995 when he accumulated 4.6 rWAR.

1. Wilbur Wood (1971) - 10.7 rWAR
2. Ed Cicotte (1917) - 10.0
3. Phil Niekro (1978) - 9.1
4. Hoyt Wilhelm (1959) - 7.4 - His only year as a full time starter. And what a year!
5. Bob Purkey (1962) - 7.2 - Amazing year for the Pirates that season.
6. Joe Niekro (1982) - 7.1

Tim Wakefield had a productive career and being ninth all time among his pitching peers is pretty darned good. He was a fan favorite in Boston and his pitching of the last couple of seasons won't be missed, but he will be.

Spreadsheet and notes. Click on the the image to make it larger.

It's Time to Retire Tim Wakefield

Monday night's game with the Tampa Bay Rays was/is (it's still going as this is being written) just one of those blowouts that happen during a season. And for sure, the story after the game and in tomorrow's articles and posts will be the pasting that Daisuke Matsuzaka received at the hands of the formerly punch-less Bay Rays. Perhaps the stories will be even more about Sam Fuld's almost-cycle (he only needs a single currently). But this post isn't about any of that. This story is about everyone's favorite knuckleball pitcher, Tim Wakefield. It's terrible to even type this, but it must be said. He's done. He's too old and he needs to be released.

In fact, this observer felt that way in Spring Training after watching him in a few of those games. But then the season started and Wakefield appeared in four games and his ERA was 3.00 in six innings and everyone said that the old guy still had it. But he didn't. Not really. His BABIP for those six innings was .000. That's right, .000. He was throwing atom balls. His ERA may have been 3.00 but his FIP was 6,86.

Sure, it would be easy to say that the season is early. But then you have to look at last year. Last year, he finished with an 82 ERA+ and his worst ERA and his lowest WAR since 2000. That was eleven years ago. It would also be easy to want to continue this love affair for this unique talent that has made us smile for nineteen seasons.

Residing up here in the northern reaches of New England, this Fan has watched him for most of those years, . He's been an institution. On a team full of athletes and sluggers, he was our Everyman. We smiled when he threw his fastball for a strike and it registered 72 on the radar gun. Hey, that's not far from what we could do. We could relate to this guy more than most ball players.

And his fan base and his long term service to the Red Sox probably puts an emotional blinder on Terry Francona  and Theo Epstein. That's understandable. But this team doesn't need a mascot. They need someone younger that can more consistently get the job done. If you want to make him a $4 million mascot, retire him and let him become the team spokesman or something.

After the Matsuzaka massacre, the Red Sox called on Wakefield because it was already 7-0. This Fan watched him jog onto the field and toward the pitching mound. He looked like a middle-aged guy with a giddy-up stride trying to get across the street to the mailbox before the traffic caused him to pause for five minutes. He immediately picked off B. J. Upton because Upton has these brain farts five or six times a season. One out. The next batter hit an atom ball to Pedroia, who quickly started the double-play that ended the innings. The ESPN announcers were effusive in their praise for the old guy.

By the time that Francona came out and got Wakefield after three plus innings, the old guy had given up eight base runners and five runs. By the last of it, the announcers were softening the blow by saying that Wakefield must be understandably out of gas. No, he isn't out of gas, he's out of time.

It's not like Tim Wakefield has kept himself in great shape. His newfound portliness makes him look like he was on the same banquet circuit as Joe Maddon this past off season. Maybe if Wakefield had kept working himself physically, he wouldn't look like an old man now. But he didn't and he does.

There were signs of this last year. Whenever a team bunted and Wakefield was on the mound, the old guy couldn't move. He had no chance to field the ball and get the out. His fielding bible scores gave him a -2 runs saved on defense and a -4 total defensive runs saved. In other words, he didn't save any runs with his fielding, he cost them. Again, this Fan has watched Wakefield for a long time and he used to move much better than this. He was a pretty good athlete at one time. He isn't any more.

It's not easy to write a piece like this. Tim Wakefield is a beloved figure in Boston and New England. He means a lot to his team as one of the last holdovers from both championships. He's had a lot of great moments and has been highly versatile. He was even the Red Sox closer for a time in 1999. Only Roger Clemens has more wins in a Red Sox uniform.

But, it's time, Boston. It's time to give him a grand send off. Have your Tim Wakefield day. Put a plague out there somewhere on the field. Sure, even retire his number. All of those would perfectly suit the old warrior who has meant so much to the team and the area. But making him some kind of mascot to come in and look old and creaky in blow out games doesn't do any service to him or your fans. Some times, old horses just need to be put out to pasture.

It's well past that time for Tim Wakefield. It hurts to say it, but that's the reality we're living here.

Not a Good Night for Old Starting Pitchers

There is angst tonight for the older generation. Two pitchers who are at least within fighting distance in age with baby boomers across America are the only players in Major League Baseball that the older generation can still relate to. They may be the only players in baseball who might know who Johnny Carson was. Oops! Can't forget Omar Vicquel, who is 43. But both Jamie Moyer and Tim Wakefield were wrecked tonight and for each, it was the second such performance in succession.

Both Wakefield and Moyer pitch for proud contenders that are fighting for their lives in their respective divisions. Both teams are behind by more than a couple of games and both have a couple of teams ahead of them in the standings. The Phillies and the Red Sox can ill afford to have games where they don't have a chance at winning and that doesn't bode well for our aging heroes.

Moyer and Kendrick have basically battled for the same rotation spot all season and the Red Sox will have Beckett and Buchholz back shortly which might cost Wakefield his rotation spot. In some respects, Moyer has had a remarkable season as his WHIP, his BB/9 are the best in a very long time. But he's also given up 1.74 homers per nine innings with his 22 so far this year. There is some debate as to Moyer's Hall of Fame possibilities. He's now given up 511 homers in his career, which means that he's the reverse Mel Ott. Moyer's two bad outings in a row have pushed is ERA up to 4.88. How long will the Phillies stick with the 47 year old marvel.

Wakefield has looked older this season to this observer. He doesn't move as well off the mound and he looks creaky. But his pitching stats are pretty much in line with last year. In fact, they are nearly identical. But last year's efforts landed him with an 11-5 record. This year he is now 3-8 and his ERA is up to 5.65, which is the only number that is much higher than last year.

While this isn't an obituary by any means, both pitchers have had two straight bad outings and that is cause for alarm.

But the news isn't all bad. The 40 year old Billy Wagner pitched another perfect ninth for another save. Chipper Jones, who is a baby compared to the others mentioned in this post, hit a game winning homer. The 43 year old, Omar Vizguel, went two for four.

But then again, Jose Contreras, who may be or may not be 39, gave up five earned runs in just two-thirds of an inning.

Why Does Wakefield Win?

Let's state right up front that this post takes nothing away from Tim Wakefield. He's found a way to succeed for a very long time with what he can do. What this post tries to deal with is why he is so successful. You see, the Fan watched a good part of Wakefield's game today. His knuckleball, at least early on, was consistently up in the strike zone. The pitches looked like great big lollipops. And yet, when the Braves did connect, they were way out in front and pulled the ball foul. When the ball was fair, it was a squib somewhere for an easy out. Wakefield only gave up three hits.

Understand that the Fan has never tried to hit a knuckleball. Heck, the Fan was forced from his baseball dreams because he couldn't hit a curve. But the Fan was a pretty darn good softball player. It seems to this observer that hitting a knuckleball is a bit like hitting a slow-pitch softball, especially when it's up in the zone.

From this perspective, the problem that Wakefield's victims all have is that they try to pull everything. If you sit back on the pitch, like a slow-pitch softball, and mentally try to put the ball up the middle, then when it is pulled, it will be hit hard and in the field of play.

The second observation: Why don't all Wakefield's opponents move up in the batter's box to take away the last break. From what this observer can see, there is usually a big dip or zag right as the ball is crossing the plate. If you move up in the box, you miss that last big break and--it would seem--have a better crack at squaring the pitch up.

If the Fan was a manager, to prepare for Wakefield, the Fan would bring in a softball pitcher from the neighborhood to pitch batting practice. Let the guys get the feel of hitting something slow with an arc and practice keeping the front shoulder down and attempt to hit the ball up the middle.

It doesn't seem as hard when watching as it must be to actually hit against Wakefield. But it seems that teams could take a smarter approach. After all, the batter already has the advantage in that he knows what's coming. The smarter approach to this writer would be to move forward in the batter's box, stay back, keep the front shoulder down and hit the ball up the middle.