The first week of the season is now history and the old game has already been interesting:

- Adam Dunn has four homers and is back from his softmore swoon.
- Kerry Wood hasn't lost this Spring (5-0 in Spring Training and 2-0 in the young season).
- Mike Mussina won his two hundredth game but looks very hittable.
- Tino Martinez looks ressurected in Tampa.
- The Phillies have Pat Burrell back and heading towards Comeback Player of the Year, but can't seem to win.
- Armando Benitez has five saves already for the Marlins, who look like last year was just the beginning.
- The Astros starting pitching looks as good as advertised even with Pettitte hurt.
- The Yankees seem to have a better Bubba than last year.

Golly, the Fan does love his baseball. Steroids, schmeroids. The game is the thing.

Just so this prediction thing can be put to rest, the Fan only has one division left--the American League West. The following is their predicted order of finish along with some predictions of who the teams' leaders should be:

1. The Anaheim Angels. With their off-season acquisitions of Bertolo Colon, Jose Guillen, Kelvim Escobar and Vladimir Guerrero and their exciting and passionate owner, the Angels are the team to beat. On paper, they have a great lineup, some solid starting pitching and Troy Percival and Francisco Rodriguez are a very good eigth and ninth inning pitchers. The rest of the division have their hands full this season.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Troy Glaus (37)
RBI - Vladimir Guerrero (129)
Average - Adam Kennedy (.322)
Wins - Bartolo Colon (22)
Career Year - Adam Kennedy (Kennedy becomes a star this year)
Record - 98-64
Keys - Can the Angels get 50 wins out of Jarrod Washburn, John Lackey and Aaron Sele? All three are coming off sub-par years after having success in the past. Darin Erstad has had only one year batting over .300 with more than 20 homers and 100+ RBI. Was that a tease? Is he overrated? The Angels have to stay healthy as they don't have much for depth.

2. The Oakland Athletics are only as good as their starters, which are the best in baseball. They have a potentially decent offense with a healthy Jermaine Dye and Eric Chavez along with newcomers, Kielty and Kotsay. But they are thin in depth and any kind of injuries will hurt them dearly. Plus, the Angels are going to be tough to play nineteen times. The Fan can't see the A's higher than second.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Eric Chavez (33)
RBI - Eric Chavez (109)
Average - Bobby Kielty (.319)
Wins - Tim Hudson (23)
Career Year - Bobby Kielty
Record - 90-72
Keys - The A's bullpen is really suspect although new closer, Arthur Rhodes has had a good start. Can Rich Harden be the fourth and final piece of the rotation puzzle? The big three are solid as ever.

3. The Texas Rangers. This is a much better Texas team this year and they have a great manager. The question mark is the same for the Rangers as it has always been: Can they get any pitching? Kenny Rogers always seems to be a gamble (do you get it?) as the number one starter. Chan Ho Park gave the Rangers a lot of hope with a great first start, but stunk up the joint today. Dickey has a lot of up sides. But there is no experienced closer and there could be a lot of 10-8 losses ahead.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Mark Teixeira (34)
RBI - Mark Teixeira (112)
Average - Laynce Nix (.324) A star is born
Wins - Kenny Rogers (17)
Career Year - Laynce Nix
Record - 81-81
Keys - Pitching. Pitching. Pitching. Can Soriano get any discipline in his game?

4. The Seattle Mariners. Yes, the mighty Mariners are sinking. You can almost hear them creak. Ichiro Suzuki's average has gone down every year and his strikeout total has gone up. The league is catching up to him. Jamie Moyer is 42. Edgar Martinez is 41. Bret Boone is 34. Cather, Dan Wilson, is 34. Jon Olerud is 36. This team is a shadow of what they were and their competition hasn't gotten easier, it's gotten tougher. The Mariners come in last for the first time in years.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Raul Ibanez (26) Therein lies the problem
RBI - Raul Ibanez (88)
Average - Ichiro Suzuki (.307)
Wins - Joel Pineiro (18)
Career Year - Raul Ibanez
Record - 75-87
Keys - What do some of this team's geezers have left?

Other Predictions:
American League:

MVP - Manny Ramirez
Cy Young - Kevin Brown
Rookie of the Year - Erik Bedard: Baltimore Orioles

AL Champion - Boston Red Sox

National League:

MVP - Sammy Sosa
Cy Young - Kerry Wood
Rookie of the Year - Khalil Green - San Diego Padres

NL Champion - Chicago Cubs

World Series - Cubs over the Red Sox in six games.

Predictions for the American League's Central Division would have been vastly different if made before the season started. Now that the season is five games old, some things seem upside down. The Tigers are 4-0. The Twins are 2-2 but have lost have their stars to injury and the Royals just don't look very good. Pressing on, here are the Fan's predictions for the division. Following the team listing will be projections of who the team leaders will be:

1. The Cleveland Indians. Yes. That's right, the Cleveland Indians. The Indians have some exciting young talent and benefit from playing in the league's weakest division. Travis Hafner, Jody Gerut and Ben Broussard are going to be stars. Omar Vizguel and John McDonald anchor an excellent defensive infield and Sabathia and Jeff D'Amico seem ready to step up to the next level. The rebuilding of the Indians seems to be on overdrive.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Travis Hafner (32)
RBI - Casey Blake - (105)
Average - Ben Broussard (.310)
Wins - C.C. Sabathia (23)
Career Year - C.C. Sabathia. It's time this still young pitcher to come into his own.
Record - 86-76
Keys - The Indians need to get some quality starts from Jason Stanford, Chad Durbin and Jason Davis behind Sabathia and D'Amico.

2. The Chicago White Sox. The White Sox still have a decent lineup, but they will be derailed by starting pitching and a closer that the manager has already shown no faith in. The White Sox should have a feisty team that mirrors their new manager, Ozzie Guillen, but I just can't see them as more than a .500 team.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Frank Thomas (36)
RBI - Magglio Ordonez (117)
Average - Magglio Ordonez (.321)
Wins - Mark Buehrle (16)
Career Year - Juan Uribe <---a long shot
Record - 83-79
Keys - Jose Valentin has probably peaked in his career and is on the down slope of his career. Paul Konerko had an awful 2003 season after an outstanding year in 2002. The White Sox need him to bounce back. How much does Sandy Alomar Jr. have left? Was Estaban Loaiza a one year wonder?

3. The Detroit Tigers. I must be out of my mind, but the Tigers have made me believe after their first four games. What Ivan Rodriguez did in Florida, he can do again in Detroit. They actually have a decent lineup now with Rodriguez, Munson (coming into his own), Pena (ditto), Fernando Vina, Rondell White, Carlos Guillen and Bobby Higginson. Higginson and Pena should have much better years with more help around them. The starting staff learned a lot last year and Trammell sticking to the starters last year despite their won/lost record will make them better pitchers this year.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Rondell White (18) BIG ballpark
RBI - Carlos Pena - (96)
Average - Fernando Vina - (.309)
Wins - Jason Johnson - (17)
Career Year - Fernando Vina
Record - 80-82
Keys - Do they have enough depth to endure injuries? Can they play enough defense to keep their starters out of trouble? How soon can they get Urbina in shape and back in the dugout?

4. The Kansas City Royals. Despite the Royals' effervescent manager, Tony Pena, the Royals aren't as good as they were last year despite picking up Gonzalez. There are too many holes in the lineup despite some career years last year. The starters are suspect and they don't have any closer who has more than a few career saves. It could be back to reality for the Royal fans this year.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Carlos Beltran (31)
RBI - Juan Gonzalez (129)
Average - Carlos Beltran - (.312)
Wins - D.J. Carrasco (17)
Career Year - D. J. Carrasco - this kid can pitch!
Record - 76-86
Keys - Will Juan Gone stay healthy for once? Will Mike Sweeney's back let him play like he once did? Can they get any starting pitching? Is Joe Randa going to develop or just end up a Ed Sprague type of player?

5. The Minnesota Twins. The Twins have already lost Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, Matthew LaCroy and Joe Mays to injury. What they have left just isn't enough. They lost their two top bullpen pitchers from last year and that has gone from a strength to a weakness. The Twins still have terrific potential in their minor leagues but are destined as long as they are under the Pohldad cloud to have bright spots intermingled with sad years.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Jacque Jones (27)
RBI - Torii Hunter (93)
Average - Shannon Stewart (.303)
Wins - Kyle Lohse (15)
Career Year - Luis Rivas
Record - 70-92
Keys - Can their injured players come back and play? Can they get any bullpen help? Will Brad Radke ever be more than the most overrated starting pitcher in baseball?

It was great to see Ken Griffey hit his second homer of the year tonight. Maybe he can stay healthy this year. I wish he wasn't playing centerfield where it is so easy to get hurt.

The Fan is one happy camper! The NCAA has sunk its last basket and it's time for baseball. The games have already been interesting. Clemens pitched a one hitter. Griffey hit a bomb beyond the centerfield fence. The Tigers are the anti-Tigers of 2003. The Red Sox are bopping. Pat Burrell is back and is batting over .700 in the first three games. As Jackie Gleason used to say, "And away we go!"

But first, I need to take care of old business and give you my American League predictions. I will go with the teams in the order of their finish and also what I believe will be the team leaders in major categories:

Eastern Division:

1. The Boston Red Sox. It just feels like the Red Sox year. The Yankees and the Red Sox both had great off-seasons, but the Red Sox seem to go after talent and chemistry and I believe they have the best general manager in baseball. Theo Epstein always seems to make great choices. This year is no different as Epstein got a very useful player in Mark Bellhorn from the Cubs, Ellis Burks, Dave McCarty and Pokey Reese. Those players don't sound like much, but neither did Mueller, Millar and Ortiz last year.

This is a very good team from top to bottom, starters to bench, starters to bullpen. And they also have this team feeling that I have never seen in baseball and haven't seen in any sport since the 1969 Knicks.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Manny Ramirez (43)
RBI - Manny Ramirez (138)
Average - Manny Ramirez (.325) Yes, he's going to have a great year.
Wins - Curt Schilling (23)
Career Year - Mark Bellhorn
Record - 97-65 (only because the Yankees will split their 18 games)
Keys - How much does Pedro have in that arm? Can Nomar become the all fields hitter he used to be? Will Veritek hold up?

2. The New York Yankees. The Yankees have the greatest collection of All Stars ever assembled. But can Torre assemble them? They are also a fragile bunch and Messina doesn't look good early. I don't believe Derek Jeter has been the same since he went over the railing and into the stands in 2001. They will win their share of games and feast off of weak pitching, but they haven't proven that they can hit power pitching.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Gary Sheffield (37)
RBI - Alex Rodriguez (119)
Average - Alex Rodriguez (.311)
Wins - Kevin Brown (19)
Career Year - Javier Vazquez
Record (95-67)
Keys - Will Rivera remain dominant? Can Jeter be the Jeter of old? Will Mike Mussina be as weak as he looked so far?

3. Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are greatly improved and have a lineup that is close to the Red Sox and Yankees. Unfortunately, their pitching doesn't compare. It's not as bad as others believe, but not good enough to unseat the Yankees or Red Sox. Their games should be a whole lot of fun to watch however. Lee Mazzilli is the perfect guy for this team.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Javy Lopez (40)
RBI - Jay Gibbons (108)
Average - Luis Matos (.321) This guy is going to be a star
Wins - Sidney Ponson (16)
Career Year - Luis Matos
Record - 89-73
Keys - How good is Tejada? Is he 2002 good or 2003 good? Can the Orioles get more than five innings out of their second through fifth starters. How long can Rafael Palmiero play first base?

4. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Surprise! I believe that strongly in Lou Piniella. This guy just gets a lot out of his players. The team is full of up and coming young players who can hit and run and if they get any pitching, they can be dangerous. Watch this team!

Homeruns - Aubrey Huff (35)
RBI - Aubrey Huff (117)
Average - Aubrey Huff (.325) The American League's newest star.
Wins - Victor Zambrano (16) He already has two!
Career Year - Carl Crawford - Especially if he can cut down on his strikeouts and get more walks
Record - 80-82
Keys - Can Zambrano ever cut down on this walks to become the superstar pitcher he should be? Will Baldelli and Crawford learn to be more patient? Will they hold their own after 19 games with the Red Sox and the Yankees?

5. Toronto Blue Jays. I just don't see this team putting it together this year. Their star pitcher from last year Roy Halladay threw too many innings last year and will lose effectiveness this year. They don't have an established closer and they have question marks at first, third and the two corner outfield positions. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Delgado (43)
RBI - Vernon Wells (129)
Average - Vernon Wells (.329)
Wins - Josh Towers (15)
Career Year - Josh Towers
Keys - Can Halladay put two great years together? Is Vernon Wells as good as he played last year? Is there any pitching besides Towers and Halladay? Who is going to close?

Tomorrow, the Central Division.

To continue the Fan's 2004 season predictions let's finish off the National League and then move to the American League. The predictions will follow this pattern: The teams will be selected in the order they will finish in the division and then predictions for leaders on each team will be made along with their projected totals for the season. Here goes...

National League Central

1. The Chicago Cubs. You have to go with the Cubs. The Cubs and Astros really match up well with each other but the Cubs young power pitchers play home games in Wrigley Field which, except for when the wind is blowing out, is a much more forgiving place for pitchers than the Astros little matchbox of a stadium.

The Cubs also picked up Derrek Lee, the best fielding first baseman in the National League and that will make their defense better and thus their pitching staff. Sammy Sosa is going to have a big year after two sub-Sammy, controversy years. The heck with the billy goat, the Cubs are the team to beat in the National League.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Sammy Sosa (61)
RBI - Sammy Sosa (140)
Average - Corey Patterson (.315)
Wins - Kerry Woods (22)
Career Year - Derrek Lee
Record - 98-64
Keys - Will Kerry Wood and Mark Prior be healthy enough for 30 starts each? How many games will LaTroy Hawkins blow in the bullpen? What does Greg Maddox have left?

2. The Houston Astros. The Fan has to root for the Astros with Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens pitching for them in 2004. Unfortunately, the Astros gave away Billy Wagner, the best lefthanded reliever in history, and their ball park takes away good pitching much the same as Colorado. The Astros are good enough for second, but can't make it to the top of the division.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Richard Hidalgo (42)
RBI - Lance Berkman (134)
Average - Adam Everett (.312)
Wins - Roy Oswalt (19)
Career Year - Adam Everett. The kid settles down and becomes a star.
Record - 94-68
Keys - Can their great starting pitching control the flow of runs at home? Can those same pitchers stay healthy? Will Octavio Dotel have success as a closer? How soon will Astros baseball people realize that Biggio hurts the team more than helps it?

3. The St. Louis Cardinals. With Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen and Sanders, the Cardinals will score some runs consistently. Unfortunately, what used to be their strength--pitching--has become their weakness and the Cardinals won't be able to overcome the Cubs and Astros as such. Pujols will have another big year. Rolen will again show that he is the best third baseman in baseball and Sanders will have a good year in this lineup. It's too bad about the pitching.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Pujols (38)
RBI - Pujols (137)
Average - Pujols (.336) This is an easy team to pick!
Wins - Woody Williams (17)
Career Year - Reggie Sanders - Well surrounded by great hitters.
Record - 84-78
Keys - Can they get any consistency from their starters? Can Jason Insringhausen close effectively?

4. The Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates improved last year and didn't seem to be such a push over. They haven't improved their team this year and Jose Mesa will be their closer. Oh boy. Another long season in Pittsburgh. They will regress from their progress and have a miserable year.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Craig Wilson (32) Who you ask? He's going to break out this year.
RBI - Raul Mondesi - (88) Personifies the problem of this team. No leadership and no big run producer.
Average - Jason Kendell - (.308)
Wins - Salomen Torres (15)
Career Year - Craig Wilson
Record - 72-90
Keys - Can Benson ever be the pitcher we thought he could be? Will Mondesi wear out his welcome in yet another city?

5. The Cincinnati Reds. What a mess at the bottom of this division. This once proud franchise is the second biggest embarrassment in baseball. The Reds have some hitting but also the most unproven, unsavory looking pitching staff in the history of their franchise. Ugh! Who do you like out there? Paul Wilson? Adam Harang? Yikes.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Adam Dunn (40) Dunn will come back from last year.
RBI - Adam Dunn (102)
Average - Sean Casey (.295)
Wins - Paul Wilson (11)
Career Year - Adam Dunn will be back with a bang.
Record - 62-100
Keys - Can they stay ahead of the Brewers on the bottom of the division?

6. Milwaukee Brewers. What the Selig family has done to this franchise mirrors Selig's success as a commissioner. They have bungled and fumbled this franchise in what should be a criminal act. Nevermind Martha Stewart. All she did was gain $40,000 in a stock deal. The Seligs have cost Milwaukee, the fans and the state of Wisconsin millions of dollars. And then they lost Richie Sexson, the only real reason to go to one of their games. Oh Woe is the city of Milwaukee. This will be the first division in history to have two teams lose a hundred games.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Geoff Jenkins (30) One of the real good guys in baseball.
RBI - Geoff Jenkins (95)
Average - Scott Podsednik (.322)
Wins - Matt Kinney - (11)
Career Year - Junior Spivey - I think Spivey will resurrect his career here.
Record - 60-102
Keys - Will dual specialist Brooks Kieschnick have more hits himself than he gives up pitching?


National League East

1. Philadelphia Phillies. This is the year that the Braves fall from the top of the table. The Phillies have assembled the second best team in the National League and if they don't do well, the world will finally find out that Larry Bowa is not the guy to manage this team.

Despite Bowa, this team has all the horses ready to win the division. Billy Wagner will give them a consistent closer. Padilla, Millwood and Wolf gives them three solid starters and Pat Burrell is going to be back with a monster year.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Jim Thome (48)
RBI - Pat Burrell (132)
Average - Bobby Abreu (.310)
Wins - Millwood and Wolf (tied at 18)
Career Year - Pat Burrell. Burrell is back to hitting the ball to all fields and hitting line drives. Look for a big year.
Records - 98-64
Keys - Can Millwood stay healthy? Can Thome stay healthy? Can Eric Milton resurrect his career? Will Bowa hold back this club with his overbearing managing?

2. Florida Marlins. The Florida Marlins lost a lot of their heart when they did not re-sign Ivan Rodriguez. And the team lost Derrek Lee, an underrated reason why they played so well last year on defense. A lot of the Marlins success will depend on the health of their pitching and the growth of their young players, Hee Seop Choi and Miguel Cabrera. Few people understand that Josh Beckett has only won 17 games in his career and another young pitcher named Jared Wright once dominated a post-season series never to be heard from again.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Mike Lowell (34)
RBI - Miguel Cabrera (109)
Average - Juan Pierre (.312)
Wins - Brad Penny (18)
Career Year - Carl Pavano with 17 wins
Record - 95-67
Keys - Can Armando Benitez succeed as their closer? What kind of year can Josh Beckett have? Was Dontrelle Willis a one year wonder? Will Cabrera continue to amaze as a youngster?

3. Montreal Expos. The vagabond Expos should have a better team than the Braves and even with the loss of some of their superstars, Frank Robinson will not let them play in a mediocre way. Nick Johnson was a great pickup as was (and I hate to admit it) Carl Everett. The Expos aren't a great team and may not be a good team. But they will scrap away and win their share of games.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Carl Everett - (29)
RBI - Orlando Cabrera (97)
Average - Jose Vidro (.322)
Wins - Claudio Vargas (17)
Career Year - Claudio Vargas as the pitcher comes of age.
Record - 86-76
Keys - How much does Livan Hernandez have left? Can Nick Johnson stay healthy? How will all the travel hurt the team?

4. Atlanta Braves. The Braves will not only not win the division, but they won't even be a .500 club. The luster is gone and the run is over. Of course, that could just be the hopes of the Fan making the predictions. I just don't see the pitching on this club doing anything to help them.

Leaders:
Homeruns - J.D. Drew (38) Drew finally decides to play baseball for a living.
RBI - J. D. Drew (112)
Average - Rafael Furcal (.309)
Wins - Paul Byrd (15)
Career Year - Rafael Furcal will hit .300 for the first time.
Record - 75-87
Keys - Can the Braves get anything out of Thompson and the other young starters? Can John Smoltz stay healthy? How will the team replace both Sheffield and Javy Lopez?

5. New York Mets. The poor Mets have yet to recover from the poor personnel decisions of a couple of years ago. They also have one of the worst ballparks in baseball. Mike Piazza is playing first and that means an even higher ERA for their pitching staff. Kaz Matsui will be exciting and is a great addition. But it's a mistake to move their new franchise player: Jose Reyes. Now Reyes has to learn a new position which could stunt his hitting growth.

Leaders:
Homeruns - Piazza (33)
RBI - Piazza (110)
Average - Jose Reyes (.313)
Wins - Al Leiter (16)
Career Year - Ty Wigginton who is a good young player.
Record - 70-92
Keys - Can Matsui adjust to the American game? Can Leiter stay healthy? Will Reyes progress?

Tomorrow, the American League. Tonight! Real baseball! On American soil! Red Sox and Orioles. Here we go, 2004!

Since we must wait until Monday for the season to restart (after the funky start in Japan), we might as well ponder the divisions and how they could shape up this year. Let's start in the wide open National League West (in order of where they should finish):

1. The San Diego Padres. The Padres will be this year's Cinderella team, not because they will be that good, but because the rest of the division could be that bad. Looking on paper, all the teams in this division have glaring weaknesses.

The Padres have weaknesses, but they can run three decent starters out there and have some good players in their lineup. Here are my projected leaders on the team and a few keys for them to win:

Homeruns - Brian Giles (36)
RBI - Ryan Klesko (105)
Average - Jeff Burroughs (.308)
Wins - Sterling Hitchcock (16) <--longshot
Career Year - Jay Payton
Record - 88-74
Keys: Trevor Hoffman coming back from injury; How long David Wells can hold up; whether Khalil Greene is ready to be the every day shortstop.

2. The Colorado Rockies. The Rockies should have a great lineup but have little pitching, so expect another season of 12-11 games. The Rockies will never win their division as long as they play in Colorado. But it sure will be fun to watch Vinnie Castillo (who comes home this year), Larry Walker, Todd Helton, Jeremy Burnitz and Preston Wilson knock the ball around in the thin air:

Homeruns - Vinnie Castilla (40)
RBI - Todd Helton (122)
Average - Larry Walker (.334) Rooting for a Larry comeback
Wins - Scott Elarton (14)
Career Year - Jeromy Burnitz
Record - 81-81
Keys: Pitching. Any pitching. Some pitching. Starting pitching. Relief pitching...

3. The San Francisco Giants. The Giants have little besides Bonds and it's always interesting to see when age finally catches up with Bobby's son. But this should be a record making year for Bonds and that should keep him popping the baseball into McCovey Cove. The trouble is, there's nothing to protect him from all those walks.

Other than Bonds, the pitching is weak and the lineup would be awful without Barry Bonds' presense in their.
Homeruns - Barry Bonds (46)
RBI - Edgardo Alfonso - (97)
Average - Bonds (.338)
Wins - Jason Schmidt - (15)
Career Year - Michael Tucker
Record - 80-82
Keys: I don't see where the pitching is going to come from and Barry Bonds does not have one star around him that would make any pitcher in the league.

4. The Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks lost Schilling. Randy Johnson got shelled in his last Spring Training tuneup and is 41 years old. Brandon Webb is all that is left. You know a pitching staff is in trouble when the big off-season addition is Shane Reynolds. Yeesh. The Diamondbacks should have a better lineup, but for the first time in years, seem destined for the lower reaches of the division.

Homeruns - Richie Sexson (45) Book it, Dano.
RBI - Richie Sexson (125) As consistent a slugger as there is in the game.
Average - Alex Cintron - (.318)
Wins - Randy Johnson (14)
Career Year - Brandon Lyon
Keys: What do Randy Johnson, Roberto Alomar, Luis Gonzalez and Steve Finley have left in those aging tanks?

5. The Los Angeles Dodgers. Last year, the Dodgers had the best pitching in the division and the worst offense in the majors. They haven't improved their offense and their pitching looks very, very shakey. Hideo Nomo looked bad all Spring. Kaz Ishii has lost all zip on his fastball. There is no telling how Jeff Weaver will respond after his disastrous detour in New York and Dan Dreifort and Odalis Perez could be great or non-existent. It will be a long, long year in the Chavez Ravine.

Homeruns - Shawn Green (22) If that...
RBI - Juan Encarnacion (88)
Average - Paul Lo Duca (.278) Really
Wins - Odalis Perez (15)
Career Year - Dave Roberts
Keys: Perhaps their pitching will gel, but that's a long shot.

The Cubs seem poised to have a great season. Kerry Wood has gone 5-0 this Spring and looks nasty. Sammy Sosa looks healthy and has hit well. Derrek Lee has mashed the ball and every game seems lopsided. Houston also looks good as their starting pitching has been terrific. This could be one heck of a race in the NL Central with a slight nod going to Houston since I'll take Dotel as a closer over LaTroy Hawkins.

Hawkins was given the closer role in Minnesota in 2001 and, though he saved 28 games, ended with a 5.96 ERA. The past two years, he has been a setup man and has posted ERAs of 2.13 and 1.86 with a combined 15-3 record. In those two years, he gave up only 162 baserunners in 157 innings.

Some pitchers just aren't meant to close. Mike Timlin has been handed the job several times in his career and never could do it. Scott Williamson has been handed the job twice in his career and failed twice. Hawkins might be in that category. So what the Cubs have to hope for are a lot of 12-3 games with the starting pitching strong and the offense hitting like it has this Spring.

Speaking of Scott Williamson, both he and Kevin Foulke have been hit hard this Spring and that has to make Red Sox Nation a little scared. Nomar Garciaparra is going to start the season on the shelf and Pedro looks like a shade of himself. On the bright side, Schilling looks like a horse and their surprise this year seems to be David McCarty. McCarty, who has hit 32 career homers in his long, cup of coffee type career, has about that many during the exhibition season.

It was nice for Hidecki Matsui to hit a homer in front of his home country friends today. No wonder they love him over there. The Yankees are only tied now for the worst record in baseball. Kevin Brown pitched great getting his first win as a Yankee. Posada hit two homers and had six RBI in the game.

The first day of the season didn't feel like the first day of the season. The Fan woke up this morning and turned the game on. Two teams from the major leagues were playing, but it didn't look or feel like a real game. I stand by earlier post that I hate this Japan thing. The opening day of baseball should be about the home team's fans screaming for the first time of the season. It shouldn't be about a game a world away in front of polite and respectful fans.

The only good thing about the game today was old friend, Tino Martinez, starting the season going three for three with a homer, double and two RBI. He got a bad rap in St. Louis where it was said he wasn't a team player. Joe Torre doesn't put up with those types of players and a man doesn't change just because he moves to another city. I hope Tino has a great season in Tampa Bay.

Can you tell already that Tino will be one of my box score heroes?

The Red Sox have to be worried about Pedro Martinez. He got banged around today in his last exhibition game before the season. Peter Gammons reports that Pedro hasn't risen above 90 on the radar gun all Spring. The dominating days of Pedro Martinez are gone. He could be a very effective Luis Tiant type of pitcher--which can be very good--but not the kind of pitcher who puts fear into the batter.

Joe Girardi didn't make it with the Yankees and retired. He was a big part of some of their champion seasons and I'm sure that Steinbrenner will find him a job in the Yankee organization. I always thought he looked like Tony Danza.

Okay, there is one thing I have to get off my chest. I know reality shows are the rage on television and the best seem to be where the American Dream is lived out in front of us like on American Idol, Nashville Star and now ESPN's Dream Job. Most of those shows narrow their field down to a dozen or so contestants and then the audience takes over until the winner is chosen. Dream Job gave the audience only a fraction of influence until the final two.

Now why should the Fan care about the Dream Job and who the winner is? I am a baseball fan. A show like Sport Center is where I live. Who hosts that show makes a big difference. And the problem with leaving most of the voting in the hands of the judges is that we ended up with a choice of two safe, vanilla smoothies. Chris Berman never would have won that show. Kenny Mayne never would have won that show.

Zach was the correct choice for fans like me. He had personality. He had an edge. He was entertaining. He was what Sport Center needs. We certainly don't need another cutesy cookie cutter good talker. It was very, very disappointing. Congratulations to the guy, he has one of America's great jobs. But he wasn't my choice.

The Transaction Wire is the best part of Spring Training in MLB. It is on the transaction page that you discover all the maneuvers made by teams to tinker with their recipe for this year's success. It is also a place of surprise and pathos for players sent to the minors--or worse yet--released with the dreaded word: "Unconditionally."

According to enlexica.com, a player is released "unconditionally" after being given, "a form of irrevocable waivers required before a team can release a player as a free agent." Can you kill a player off your team with worse terms than "Unconditionally" and "irrevocable?" Couldn't there be a gentler way to say that you're fired, you're out of a job, you're not going to make the team?

At least the player is given the euphemism that he is, "a free agent." Surely, people who have just recently been fired don't think of themselves as free agents. At least the players don't get "axed" like managers or general managers. Some of these "free agents" will find jobs with other teams. Others will have to find a way to hook up with a minor league contract and fight their way back to the majors. And there will be some that call it a career. Let's look at some of the most recent victims:

John Valentin' - Released by the Houston Astros:
It wasn't that long ago that John Valentin' was a major cog in a potent Red Sox batting order. Valentin' came up as a shortstop for the Red Sox and moved to third when Nomar Garciaparra broke into the Red Sox lineup. I was watching a Red Sox game once where a routine grounder was hit to third and Valentin' was gliding toward the ball to make the play when he buckled and went down. That's really bad luck to blow out a knew just moving laterally to field a grounder.

Valentin's best year was 1995 when he batted .298 with 37 doubles, 27 homers and 102 RBI. Valentin's OBP that year was a point under .400. Valentin' is a .279 lifetime hitter with a lifetime OBP of .360. Those are good numbers. But Valentin' could be finished. His legs gone, there are only so many pinch hitting positions open in baseball.

Bill Haselman - Released by the Baltimore Orioles:
The 36 year old catcher has played parts of thirteen seasons in the majors. He's also played a lot of seasons in the minors. He's just one of those average players who hangs around a long time. How much longer remains to be seen.

Dee Brown - Sent to the minors by the Kansas City Royals after he cleared waivers:
Dee Brown was a first round draft choice in 1996. He's only 26 years old but after parts of five years with the Royals, he's collected a .229 lifetime batting average. It doesn't look good for Brown to live up to that high draft choice.

Felix Jose - Released by the Arizona Diamondbacks:
This Dominican Republic native has had a long strange trip. Once a decent full time player for the Oakland A's (a .280 lifetime hitter), Jose hit bumps in the road and was out of the majors from 1995 to 2000. He made a minor comeback with the Diamondbacks but is now 39 years old. There appears to be no more way for Jose.

Erick Almonte - Released by the New York Yankees:
Another Dominican Republic player, Almonte got his big chance last year when Derek Jeter tore up his shoulder in the first game of the year. Almonte played 31 games and got exactly 100 at bats. His .260 batting average is one of the easiest in history to figure out. What happens if you finally get the shot you have waited for and you don't impress anybody? Will you ever get another chance?

Deivi Cruz - Released by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays:
The thirty-two year old Dominican shortstop (is there a theme here?) has played seven full seasons as a starter in his career and he has been a throwback to the old arch type of shortstop: slap hitter, slick fielder. He has a little more pop in his bat than the Mark Belangers of the past but this is the era of the power shortstop and Lou Piniella cut Cruz. He is a useful player and should catch on somewhere.

Fernando Tatis - Released by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays:
Now here is a story of a man who had one big year, got a big contract and fizzled. Did the money take him down? Who knows. But Tatis went from riding Mark McGwire around the bases when Mcgwire didn't ride himself around to getting fired by the Devil Rays. That one season? 1999 with a .298 average, 34 homers and a hundred and seven RBI. Before and after that? Nothing. Bye bye, Fernando. Oh yeah, he was another Dominican.

Todd Jones - Released by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (the Devil Rays had a bloody day):
Todd Jones has 184 career saves. But he is 35 years old and probably doesn't have the velocity that he once had. He had some marginal success with the Red Sox last year. He'll catch on somewhere.

Mike Williams - Released by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays:
Another 35 year old former closer, Williams has 144 career saves. He signed a big contract with the Pirates two years ago after saving 46 games in 2002. In the two years since, Williams has had an ERA over six. That won't land you too many jobs. Williams has always walked a lot of batters. He probably doesn't have the hard heat he once did to get out of those constant james.

One other transaction note, the Braves acquired Reds' pitcher, Chris Reitsma. They seemed pretty pleased with themselves. I see a journeyman pitcher with a lifetime ERA of 4.52 and a lifetime BAA of .280. The Braves could be headed to uncharted waters.

The Fan is in the process of buying a new home and it's a funny thing. I love my current home. The place is warm and homey and appealing. I have worked for years on the landscaping and it's really pretty. I enjoy my time here and there are good memories here. But I love my new home. There is a little bit of terror that though it's bigger and nicer and has more features, that it won't feel like home. Two teams will experience that feeling this year as the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies open new ballparks in just a couple of week's time.

San Diego has built what looks to be one of the most beautiful parks in baseball. Petco Park (see http://www.padres.com/NASApp/mlb/sd/ballpark/sdballpark_index.jsp) seems to have everything. The park seats 42,000 and the seats down the line will be angled toward the infield. Well...nevermind my descriptions. Just go to the site and see it. I believe it will rival the San Francisco ballpark and surpass Camdon Yards in Baltimore.

The Vet was imploded last week and I don't think many will miss it. Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia was the last remaining of the cookie cutter parks of the 70's where Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh all had the same bowl stadium with terrible astro-turf and uniform dimensions. All three cities now have new parks with Citizen Bank Field in Philadelphia opening this season (see http://www.phillies.com/NASApp/mlb/phi/ballpark/phi_ballpark_2004ballpark.jsp).

What seems great about Philadelphia's new ballpark is how the field is 23 feet below street level so when you walk in, the first thing you see is the field. Most of the seats are below your entrance except for ten rows above ground. When you go to the site to see the park, take the tour to get a feel for the new home of the Phillies.

Some things I noticed about the new home of the Phillies is that there is a lot of foul ground on the infield. That will help the pitchers whereas the dimensions are not that deep with dead centerfield being only 401 feet away from home plate. I think you'll see a lot of home runs there and a lot of pop foul outs.

The Padres' new home seems to have even smaller dimensions that Citizens Bank Park but word is that the ball doesn't carry there very well. The Padres aren't a team built for pop though and they have a lot of line drive hitters. So that should play into their game.

Unlike my dilemma concerning leaving a nice home for a newer and better one, the Phillies and Padres both leave terrible facilities and have to be excited about playing in their new clubs. The only question will be if the parks give the teams a home field advantage until their new homes become...well home. I know the feeling.

On a Sunday afternoon when college basketball is not on my list of exciting things to watch, I flipped through the channels and came to ESPN Classic's telecast of a 1997 game between the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays. Watching old games that already happened and Spring Training games are boring to me because they don't mean anything. Only the new season's games will mean anything at this point. But Toronto had Roger Clemens pitching against his old team which kept my interest for about ten minutes. After those ten minutes were up and much later after I had moved to the golf telecast, for some reason, I couldn't get Tilson Brito out of my head.

Okay, you probably think the Fan has lost it. Who the heck is Tilson Brito? I know, I asked the same question. Who the heck is Tilson Brito? The reason Mr. Brito stuck in my head was because I never heard of him. I'm a huge fan of the game and follow the box scores faithfully and have for thirty years. There are very few players that I've never heard of. That's why Tilson Brito stuck in my head. Because he never did before. How did I miss this guy?

I could use the excuse that he only played in MLB for two years (1996, 1997) but those were the dark years before cable and all I had to watch were the Toronto Blue Jay games on Canadian television (which comes in remarkably clear in the state of Maine). But this guy played for the Blue Jays!! How did I miss him?

I could use the excuse that he only batted 252 times in his career and ended up with a lackluster .238 batting average. I could say that it was a dark time in my life and I don't remember much of anything during that period. But I don't forget players and this guy just found a way to escape my notice completely.

Tilson Brito. I had to know more about this guy. It's sort of like when you are watching Survivor and Jeff doesn't show you the last vote because somebody already got voted out. I had to know what else was in that container. So here is what I found out about Tilson Brito.

First off, his full name is Tilson Brito Jimenez and he was born in the Dominican Republic in 1972. In 1990, the Toronto Blue Jays signed him as an undrafted free agent (when he was 18) and he rose steadily through their system until he made the big club in 1996. He only had eighty at bats that year and batted .238 but had a respectable OBP of .344. One of his few highlights of that year was when he had a bloop single off of Randy Johnson in one of Johnson's spectacular two-hitters on June 2nd.

Brito started the 1997 season with Toronto but only batted .222 although he did have one four-hit game. The Blue Jays released him on August 10. The Oakland A's picked him right up and he took Jose Canseco's spot on the A's roster when Canseco went down with an injury. Brito did well for the A's that last month of the season and batted .283 with a couple of homers.

1997 was Brito's swan song in Major League Baseball. It was his second season and his last. For his two year experience, Brito made $266,000. Heck, in 1997, Brito made $160,000, the same as Jason Giambi did that year for the A's. Of course, Giambi has added two zeroes to that number since and Brito has continued his professional career--wherever he could find a place to play.

By 1999, Tilson Brito was playing for the Charlotte Knights in the International League. He batted .318 for the Knights with eleven homers and fifty-eight RBI. He batted .330 for most of the year but tailed off at the end of the season. The season was good enough for Brito to be given a chance by the Detroit Tigers in the 2000 season.

Brito had a good Spring Training for the Tigers and was one of the last cuts the team made. In fact, he was sent to the minors two days after going two for four with four RBI in his last game for the team.

Brito played third base for the Toledo Mud Hens that season because the shortstop was a kid named Alfonso Soriano. But Brito's season didn't end with the Mud Hens. He played in the Pan American games with the Dominican Republic team and then found time to play in the Korean league where he batted .349.

Brito surfaced again in 2002 during Spring Training for the Chicago White Sox. Again, Brito had a great spring and was one of the last three cuts that season for the White Sox.

In 2003, Tilson Brito played for the Samsung Lions in the Japanese major leagues. Word is still out what the now thirty-two year old will be doing this year.

Okay, now the Fan knows a little more about Tilson Brito but why is there any story here at all? Well, the lame story that started this post was about a player that a lifelong box score junkie missed. But the story that comes through from following Brito's history is that most of us follow the stories about players we see on ESPN or at most, those players who play for our favorite team this year. But baseball is a dream that doesn't end with a two year shot at Major League Baseball.

The game of baseball is really about a men who probably don't know too much else in life besides batting, throwing and catching a baseball. Here was another kid from the dusty ballparks of the Dominican Republic. As a teenager, he followed so many others from his country and earned a shot at the big time. Since those two years, that shot has passed some six years now and time is getting short for any others.

But Brito played on and he played anywhere he could get paid to play. Tilson Brito is a baseball player and that's what he'll do until there is nobody else will pay him to do so. There is a bittersweet tale in that telling. So who is Tilson Brito? Well...now we know.

The Fan is back from his self-imposed vacation. I wrote nearly every day for a year and needed the break. But that doesn't mean my lips haven't been getting licked with the season approaching. Pretty soon, we will be following box scores and poring over the stats. Pretty soon, this seasons surprises will show us why we love this game. Pretty soon the new team of destiny will begin its run. Pretty soon, the umpire will say play ball and the season will start and we'll have something to talk about besides steroids. I can't wait. Are you ready?

There are a couple of things to talk about tonight before making the yearly predictions. First, I will repeat that this Fan doesn't care about steroids. If the players and owners want to find a way to test to get it out of the game, fine. But it doesn't mean anything to me. You still have to hit the ball. You still have that split second to make a decision. No drugs can aid that. It just doesn't matter. Let's play ball and work something out in the background. Okay?

This Fan does not like this trend of playing MLB games outside of the continental United States (okay, I'll tolerate Toronto). Starting the season in Japan is not only silly, but it's also dangerous for the players and it puts the participating teams at a disadvantage from all that travel. Babe Ruth and players like that "barnstormed" in Japan and other places AFTER the season.

And the continuing saga of the Expos is shameful. It's great for baseball fans in Puerto Rico and Mexico to see MLB, but find them a home for crying out loud. We are turning them into the Harlem Globetrotters of baseball. Fix it, Baseball!


Some of the most interesting stories of the season will be (in no particular order):

- Clemens and Pettitte in Houston. These two guys will drive that team into another way of approaching the game. They are proven winners and even if their stats don't show it, they will lead this team to a new place.

- All reports are that Pat Burrell has abandoned his pull-everything-power-swing and has returned to the stroke that got him to the big leagues. It is unfair to say that last year was something that has never happened before with a player. I remember Mike Schmidt batting .198 and the Philly Faithful were ready to run him out of town. Mark McGwire hit .201 in 1991 and went back to having a pretty fair career. You have to root for Burrell to come back big this year.

- Kazuo Matsui will play shortstop for the New York Mets. Of course, it's crazy to move Jose Reyes, but what are you going to do? Matsui is the latest Japanese superstar to try to make the leap to American baseball and it will be interesting to see what he does...and exciting.

- Can Ken Griffey Jr. make it back this year after a string of injury plagued years? I really hope so. The next question is where he will be playing as it is obvious that the Reds do not want him.

- Just how good will the Red Sox be with Curt Schilling on board? They could be spectacular but that's why they play the games.

- Will San Diego and others rise off the mat with some great new talent and older talent coming back from injuries? The Dodgers and Diamondbacks don't look solid and it could be an excellent opportunity for a new team to come along and take the division. Speaking of the Diamondbacks:

- Randy Johnson appears to be his old self again and has dominated Spring Training. Is he really back? Will he hold up? It would be great to have Johnson have a great career type year to put an exclamation mark on what has been an amazing career.

- Will the Braves really lose their division? The time never seemed so right for the Phillies or someone else to break the strangle hold the Braves have enjoyed on the division for the last dozen years. And you wonder why I'm licking my lips?

- How close will Barry Bonds get to Aaron this year? How much will all this steroid talk distract him? How much does he have left?

- How good will Josh Beckett be? Can he capture what he did in the World Series for an entire season? Will Dontrelle Willis be Vida Blue and have a productive career or will he be another Mark Fidrych? He sure did seem to lose steam at the end of last season.

- Will the Tigers, Devil Rays, Reds, Pirates, Rangers and Brewers be any better this year? The Tigers can't be any worse. The Devil Rays and Rangers should be better. The Pirates are even money and the Reds and Brewers have no chance. But that's what they said about Kansas City last year.

- Will the Orioles and Blue Jays make a big leap this year? They certainly seem to have improved themselves.

- What kind of year will Garciaparra have this year? And the same for A-Rod? How much will the distractions of this past off-season affect them? Will Garciaparra get off swinging at the first pitch and grounding to the shortstop?

- Will Buck Showalter be as patient with Alfonso Soriano as Joe Torre was? Will Showalter put up with those periods where Soriano can't stop swinging at any pitch that doesn't fly into the seats?

- How much will Mike Piazza hurt the Mets at first base? This underrated position could be a big factor in what kind of year the Mets have.

There is so much to talk about. I'm glad to be back and I'm ready to go. I hope you come along with me for a great season.

The Fan's juices are starting to flow. Spring Training is here. The Alex Rodriguez trade and Greg Maddux signing have kept baseball in the news. Gammons is writing again and some genuine controversy swirls around the game. Ah! Isn't Spring a wonderful thing?

Let's start with the controversies. First, talk of steroids blew up further today as Turk Wendell and teammate Denny Neagle accused Barry Bonds of taking steroids. Bonds of course responded that those pitchers should accuse him to his face. Bonds has a point as in most arenas in life, such accusations would be grounds for slander. Jason Giambi's name also came up. What good do those pitchers do the game by coming out with such statements?

Dusty Baker makes a good point in that such speculation leads to a kind of McCarthyism where accusations become more viable than actual proof. There is still the ideal that a player is innocent until proven guilty floating around in the air somewhere. Unfortunately, it is not floating in the thin Colorado air where Neagle and Wendell pitch.

The accusations made by Neagle and Wendell also smell a bit since they were made by pitchers about batters. The two are already anathema to each other. The pitchers point out that Giambi and Bonds now have super human bodies. It is possible to work hard in the gym and get that kind of body. But why didn't they point at a pitcher? Schilling is much more buff than he used to be. Would that make him a suspect? The whole thing smells until proof is offered concretely. Until then, this is a non-story until someone can explain how much difference steroids can make hitting a 99 mile per hour fastball.

The other scandal that broke today was reports that the Seligs raked in high salaries while crying poverty and begging for funds for a new stadium. The Fan is the biggest anti-fan of Bud Selig on earth. The man is the anti-Christ of baseball. Yet, this, along with the steroid flap is a non-story. So what if the owners and executives made money? How is that different than what goes on in business? What does Steinbrenner make?

Justice in business is determined by the investors and customers of that business. The Seligs haven't a clue on how to bring a winner to Milwaukee. That lack of baseball savvy will lead to a lower price for the team when they manage to find a buyer. Until then, their losing ways lead to less fans in the seats and less demand for their televised product. Let them make what they want. Their payment is lost investment and huge losses while countless fans stay away in disgust.

By the way, have you ever noticed how much Bud Selig looks like Bill Gates? Have you ever seen them together?

There is a lot of other baseball stuff to talk about. A post is building on how intelligent it is for the Cubs to invest three years in Greg Maddux or the Tigers to invest four years in Ivan Rodriguez. There will be a lot to talk about the divisions and how the teams shake out this year. All of the teams are currently tied for first place. Over three hundred players are with new teams. Spring is the best! And I can't wait to share it with you.

The Fan was taking a little break before Spring Training and during a heavy work schedule. But, the blockbuster deal between the New York Yankees and the Texas Rangers shortened that vacation. In an out of the blue and amazing development, Alex Rodriguez is going to play third base for the Yankees and Alfonso Soriano will play for the Texas Rangers.

The trade comes as a complete surprise to the baseball world as the Rangers just announced A-Rod as their team captain a couple of weeks ago. A sure sign that the team was resigned to playing Rodriguez the rest of his contract life. The trade is such a good one for the Yankees that no one is yet asking who will play second base for the Yankees.

Soriano was great in flashes. In fact, his flashes were spectacular. But his flashes created a hit or miss situation. And his missed the entire post-season for the Yankees last year. In what had to be demoralizing for his teammates, Soriano would swing at anything with runners on base in the World Series and the Marlins pitchers made him look stupid. A-Rod has much more control in his game and will be a better fielder too.

Alex Rodriguez has averaged 124 runs scored, 121 RBI, 42 homers, 34 doubles and 186 hits in his last eight years. That's as close to a hitting machine as you can find. Will Yankee Stadium be a hindrance for him with its big outfield gaps? It didn't seem to in Seattle where it was even harder to hit homeruns.

The only negative to this deal is the very real perception problem baseball continues to have where teams with money can gather the best players and those without have to scramble to make it. But the Angels and Marlins proved it can be done. Even so, the Yankees will continue to be the behemoth that the rest of America hates almost as much as the world hates America itself.

Wow. What a baseball day!

Ellis Burks is coming home where he belongs. The former Red Sox player rejoined that team today after ten years away. Burks is 39 now and well past his peak playing time but he could still be an effective hitter off the bench for the Red Sox. It was just one more great signing by a front office that seems to get this kind of thing right.

Ellis Burks was as sweet as they came when he first came up to the Red Sox in 1987. His easy gait in centerfield tracked down nearly everything hit his way. In his six years with Boston, he had three full seasons and three years of injury. The injuries soured the Red Sox who let him go his way in 1993. Red Sox fans were heartbroken.

Burks continued a career of great highlights and injury woes. But in seventeen years, he did manage to hit 351 homers and drive in 1205 runs. He also scored 1247 runs, hit 402 doubles and has a lifetime on base percentage of .364. That's a pretty good career.

Burks return to the Red Sox reminds me of Bobby Murcer's return to the Yankees at the end of his career. Murcer, like Burks was a fan favorite who when traded, broke a lot of young hearts. Murcer finished his career coming off the bench and hit a few key homers before moving up to the Yankee broadcast booth.

The similarities go further as Murcer was supposed to be the next Mickey Mantle and Burks was the next Willie Mays. But those are hard hopes to live up to and both had decent careers. Their careers didn't live up to those lofty comparisons, but they were appreciated by those who watched them play.

It's right for Ellis to come home because Ellis Burks never should have been anywhere else but Fenway Park.

The more I consider the off-season moves that have occurred so far, the one that feels the worst is the Yankees giving up Nick Johnson for Vasquez. Don't misunderstand me, the Yankees got a great pitcher. But Johnson was an important player for the Yankees.

First, Johnson is a great first baseman. I have discussed in this space many times how important a first baseman is for an infield. Secondly, there is no way in baseball heaven that Giambi will be able to play first base every day for the Yankees. As also mentioned in this column, Giambi is in that danger zone of being a big player in a time bomb of a body. Coming into his ninth season, Giambi is entering borrowed time for a big man playing a wear and tear kind of game.

Secondly, Johnson was rare in the Yankee lineup as someone who could put the ball in play and take a hundred walks. It takes baserunners clogging the bases to cause pitchers trouble. The Yankees have a great lineup on paper, but they strike out too much. Jeter struck out 88 times in less than 500 at bats. Soriano struck out 130 times. Giambi struck you 140 times. Posada struck out 110 times. This is a team that needs baserunner to force a pitcher to throw strikes.

The Yankees would have been much better off trading Soriano who gets into funks where he will swing at anything and is an easy out. Johnson had more discipline and if he stays healthy will have a break out year with Montreal.

And have you looked at the Yankees roster? Their bench is dreadful. Tony Clark? Enrique Wilson? Miguel Cairo? *Patooey* And I don't like Kenny Lofton on this team at all. He's never been the same since hurting his shoulder in the post season a few years ago. He's a 37 year old "speedster" who doesn't fit.

The Yankees have made a mistake the past few years trading all of their good young talent. A team needs to replenish a part of itself from within as much as without and their farm system has nothing left. Their mid-season acquisitions will be much harder from here on out.

The Red Sox had the right formula for building a team last year and a bit more pitching and they would have won it all. A long season needs a bench full of players that can get the job done. I don't see that with the Yankees. It could be a bumpy year in the Bronx.

Sometimes in life, you just make the wrong decision. I should have said, "Yes," when Julie's friend asked me if I liked her in the 7th Grade. I should have trusted my talent and tried out for sports in High School. Decisions change a life completely sometimes. Such a decision was made by Drew Henson when he left his senior year as the Michigan Wolverine's star quarterback to grab a big bonus by the Yankees as their next superstar.

Of course, Drew still got the money, but he wasn't cut out for baseball. He struggled in three years of minor league ball and went one for eight in his only major league experience. That one hit was the most expensive in Yankee history. But even though Henson got the money, he didn't get the fame and who knows what would have happened in the NFL.

Drew Henson was an automatic first round choice in the NFL if he had stayed his senior year. After all, Tom Brady was his backup! That's how good a quarterback he was. Now after three years of banging around in the minors, he gets to try out in the Houston Texans camp (they hold his football rights but have another quarterback named Carr). Will his skills still be there? It's definitely and iffy proposition after being away for three years. Look at all that seasoning he missed.

Henson's decision shows just how difficult it is to be a major league baseball player. He had all the tools. Joe Torre said he was going to be a superstar. But you have to go out and do it and he never could. In his last minor league season, he struck out 122 times and made 28 errors at third base. That's what I call stinking up the place.

Dion Sanders tried baseball with small success in brief flashes, but ultimately, he was ordinary at best. Bo Jackson came the closest to being a star in baseball as he was in football. But then, Bo was the best athlete I ever saw. He could do everything. A hip replacement slowed him down and then soon out.

Henson wasn't nearly as good as Dion and he was about as bad or worse than Michael Jordan in Jordan's aborted attempt to play baseball. A commercial during the Super Bowl last night made fun of baseball as a boring game. Of course, we fans know that's a cheap shot. It's a different game than football. We'll give you that.

Baseball, more than any other big time sport is about doing a bunch of small things well. It's not about being the fastest or strongest. It's about a thousand motor skills done to perfection. Some people like Derek Jeter do them all well. The Drew Hensons, Dion Sanders and Michael Jordans of the world found out how hard it was to do even a few of them.

Drew Henson had a decision to make and he made it. He followed his heart. You can't blame him for that. He made some good money doing it. But did he give up a chance at football superstardom? Time will tell. But if so, he's lost three years that he'll never get back. Hey, at least he got eight at bats in the big leagues.

Dean Palmer Retires

Dean Palmer retired today. Who? The Tigers' third baseman who had only played 87 games in the past three years due to injury, used to be a pretty good slugger and a good third baseman. Palmer hurt his neck again and just came to the conclusion that he couldn't stay healthy enough to play anymore. Palmer is 35.

Palmer had some very good years with pretty bad teams in his career with Texas, Kansas City and Detroit. Palmer hit over 25 homers six times in his career and over thirty four times. In his best years, he hit 38 homers twice. He also drove in over a hundred runs four times in his career and just missed it another year.

Dean Palmer's two weaknesses were strikeouts and injuries. Palmer struck out 1332 times in 1357 games and his strikeout average was higher than his lifetime batting average (.271 to .251). Injuries also took a toll as he missed most of the '94, '95, '97, '01, '02 and 2003 seasons limiting his overall value as a player.

He did seem to kill the Red Sox and the Yankees but he will be another one of those players who will fade out of the game without much notice and fanfare. Few will remember. That has been baseball throughout its history. The only difference now is that a player like Palmer fades away a mult-millionaire.

The Orioles Sign Mora to Multi-Year Contract

It was nice to see that the Orioles signed Melvin Mora to a multi-year deal. Mora came into his own last year and for half a year--before he came down with an injury--he was one of the best players in baseball and spent a long time at the top of the batting charts.

The only downside for Mora is that it took him a long time to put it together. He showed flashes of brilliance with the Mets but never with consistency. Now he is 32 and could be another Alex Gonzalez--a late bloomer.

In a very interesting move, the Texas Rangers made Alex Rodriguez their team captain. Only a month after the team tried to unload him in the most talked about non-trade in history, they have now asked him to lead their players on and off the field. The move seems tinged with public relations butt-covering except that Buck Showalter's last captain was Don Mattingly--a pretty good track record.

What we will never know is how the move will be perceived by his fellow players, some of whom it was reported wanted him to go. There is always a fine line the best athlete on campus walks. Most envy him and the others fawn on him. Rodriguez has probably experienced both in spades. Neither typical reaction makes you a lot of friends.

The one thing on the side of Alex Rogriguez: He plays hard every day and he is consistent in his efforts on the field. He is not only the best hitting shortstop in the league, he has also made himself the best fielder. That takes hard work and dedication to your craft which has to impress even his most jaded teammate.

It will be interesting, but not for us. We only look from the outside in and have to decide after it's all over on whether or not to believe the inevitable auto-biography.


In another interesting story, a Cleveland Indians' minor league player from Japan, who has a good chance to make the majors this season, admitted to appearing in a gay porn video while in college in Japan. First, it's still too bad that we have to qualify the porn video by its category and second, it's sad that teams in his own country shunned him after it was known what he had done.

The refreshing part of this story is that the young man has been up front about his "acting" and acknowledges it to be a mistake. What is also refreshing is that the Indians have given him a chance and that players on his minor league teams have been supportive and accepting of him. Maybe we are making some strides in America yet.

The player says he is straight and made the movie for money. Well, that's been done before. He didn't hurt anyone and the one movie shouldn't have any bearing on what type of player or chance he will be given in the major leagues. I'm going to root for the kid and this Fan doesn't envy the abuse he will suffer at the hand of some fans.

Yes, middle-aged baseball fans, it's a sad day. Jesse Orosco retired today after 24 years in MLB. The career appearance leader is 46 years old and just couldn't get himself to put in the work needed to go for one more year. Who can blame him? A quarter of a century is a long time to pitch in the best baseball game on the planet.

Jesse Orosco is the last of my peers to go in baseball. It is official now that I am older than all the players that play baseball. As long as Orosco and Rickey Henderson before him hung in there, I could still claim some peerage with the players. After all, Orosco was born one year after me. The game now is about players who were born after Orosco started pitching in the majors in 1979. Most players now were born after I grew up.

There are stages in being a Fan of this great game. As a youngster, you play little league or PAL and dream of growing up to play in the majors. You may be lucky enough as I was to go to a half a dozen games a year at Yankee Stadium. You can smell the grass, you can see the players doing a more grown up version of what you do in little league and you dream.

You put your oiled glove--tied with string caressed around a baseball--under your mattress to create the perfect pocket. Your baseball glove is the most important thing you own. You bang the mud out of your kid cleats like the big boys do. You imitate their baseball stance.

Mine was just like Bobby Murcer when I batted left-handed, Brooks Robinson when I batted right handed. I could mimic Willie McCovey's preparatory swings. I ran the bases like the wind.

Then you grow up and play softball and you make the occasional diving catch or hit the game winning hit and you feel a kinship with those on the field. That could have been me if I worked harder and wanted it more. That could have been me hitting a baseball over the Green Monster.

The players you root for are your age and came from the same places you did. You might have gone to high school or college with one of them. You can relate to them and have empathy. You know what it's like to bail out on a big curveball. Your muscles still have those memories. But you expect more because they became what you dreamed about and you didn't.

Money news creeps into the game and you get angry because they have the dream and you're working in a factory or going to church in a Ford Tempo. Just play the game you spoiled little tripe! You expect them to hustle, care, succeed and then give back to the next generation of kids. You don't like it when you hear of a player snubbing the autographs or beat writers.

And then you hit the next level when people like Jesse Orosco retire. For the generation just preceding mine, their level began when Nolan Ryan retired. The game has passed you by. Your muscles no longer have memories. My son is as old as Orosco's career and I haven't played catch with him in six years. I haven't thrown a baseball in six years. Even the random snowballs shoot twenty feet off target. I used to be able to hit the first baseman's mitt from any angle at second, short or third. I could pick it and I could throw it accurately. Now I can't hit a stop sign with a snowball.

Ah Jesse! Why did you have two quit? You were all we had left. Now I am a post generational fan. My career is making me more comfortable so I can buy a car like the kid who just signed the bonus after being drafted. I just made in my career of two dozen and more years what Soriano signed for yesterday for one year.

It is an edgier fandom. It is a frustrated time of watching and rooting. The players that really love the game like Jeter and Jason Varitek are what still make it worth watching and rooting. Besides, it's in my blood. After strikes and stupidity and a decade of Bumbling Bud Selig, I love this game more than ever. But it was still a little sweeter before Jesse Orosco retired and a little more bittersweet now. Adios, Jesse. I still wish you hadn't beat the Red Sox in 1986.

Are the Tigers crazy? Ivan Rodriguez for four years at $40 million? Sure, Rodriguez has maybe two top years in him--unless he gets hurt again like he was in his last couple of years in Texas. But to seriously consider Rodriguez at four years is stretching history. Rodriguez is right at that age when great catchers start to fade from glory. Johnny Bench comes to my mind as a prime example.

It's great that Detroit is serious about turning their franchise around and if they threw $20 million at one of the best catchers who has ever played, great. But four years is financial suicide as there is no way that Rodriguez will last that long as a prime catcher. And do you want to pay $20 million for two years of a gap hitting first baseman? Maybe, but not with my money.

Greg Maddux is in the same category. He wants one more long term deal. But why is there any hope that he has more than one or two decent seasons left in him? Be smart, Greg. Take a one year deal and the $10 million and run with it.

Recent signings show a more stable reality as the highly talented Derrek Lee signed with the Cubs for $6.9 million. As the Fan has stated here before, good defense needs a good first baseman. Lee is one of the best so don't be surprised with the infield defense in Chicaco and a downgrade in the fielding and higher ERAs in Florida.

The Dodgers signed Adrian Beltre for one year at $5 million, a modest $1.3 million dollar raise. Beltre is only 24 and is still a big talent potential, but his average has dipped every year and he doesn't seem to be taking it to the next level. The Dodgers were smart to only offer a year's contract.

Kazuhiro Sasaki, the Mariner's closer announced that he will return to Japan and not pitch for Seattle this season. Although a surprise, you have to wonder how many more oriental players will follow him. It has to be terribly hard to move to a foreign culture, not knowing the language and trying to play in those circumstances. Much respect should go to him as he turned down $9.5 million to go back home and stay with his family. Good luck to you Kaz and thanks for the good memories.

Symmetry is always a beautiful thing. When life comes full circle or wrongs get righted, a sense of peace tends to invade a little of our chaotic lives. Today's headlines include two pitchers who may come full circle and come home.

One is in the bag. Sidney Ponson came home to the Orioles and signed a three year contract to pitch for the team. The Orioles have done much to strengthen their lineup and now they have made a great step to address pitching. And Ponson is just coming into his own.

Only twenty-seven years old, Ponson was never drafted and is still learning his craft. He made great strides and had his best year so far this past season. The Giants made the right deal and borrowed him for a few months, but now that Ponson had a choice to go anywhere he wanted, he came home. That speaks well of him and the team for signing him.

The other headline isn't a done deal, but as a Fan, I hope it happens. The Cubs are wining and dining Greg Maddux and offered him a two year contract to come home. What a perfect place for Maddux to pick up his three hundredth win--where he started to become the Hall of Fame pitcher that he is.

Maddux was drafted by the Cubs and they developed him. In his seven years with the Cubs, Maddux had a 92-75 record for some really bad teams. Cub fans were crushed when their star left and ended up in Atlanta. There must have been a lot of teeth gnashing as their former star had great year after year for the Braves.

And now Maddux may go home and finish his career there. I hope he does. Symmetry. It's a beautiful thing.

If you have been a regular reader at the Fan's place, then you would know the twenty year fan relationship I have had with Roger Clemens. As a transplanted Yankee fan from New Jersey who moved to first New Hampshire and then Maine, Clemens started his career with the Red Sox at that same time. His early career coincided with the Fan becoming the world's only Yankee AND Red Sox fan.

Then Clemens moved on to Toronto and that was okay too. Living in New England, our cable providers carry Canadian channels so I got to watch Roger pitch up north for the dreaded Blue Jays. All New Englanders hate the Blue Jays almost as much as they do the Yankees. But I was angry when the Red Sox gave up on Clemens and said he was past his prime. And I cheered every time he went in to Boston to win another game on those great back-to-back Cy Young Award, twenty-win seasons.

And then one of the best pitchers that ever lived went to the Yankees. Certainly, I was excited by that. One never knew whether or not he would hold up, but he had a great Yankee career and it was an emotional moment for me when Clemens reached his milestones.

I was ready to say goodbye at the end of last season. 310 wins, over 4000 strikeouts, he finished his twentieth season at 17-9! How good is that. And he was great in the playoffs and World Series. But the Yankees didn't win it and the Marlins did. Still, it was a great way to end a career.

Somehow, when Andy Pettitte signed with the Astros (A terrible blow to the Bronx cheering section), the thoughts first appeared that maybe Clemens would join his friend there. And you know what? It's okay. He reached his milestones as a Yankee. One of the greatest pitchers of all time pitched his last Yankee game to a gem and I cried when he got the standing ovation (even from his opposing players).

He did all that with the Yankees. He won his last Cy Young with the Yankees. He reached 300 wins with the Yankees. His last game in that great uniform was brilliant and a fitting farewell. And that was okay.

Now he is home and can spend time with his family and pitch one more year with his friend Andy. Good for him and good for baseball. I just hope he doesn't get rapped around in that band box of a stadium. I hope you win twenty, Roger, and lead your team to the World Series. I'll be watching just like always.

The California Angels are clearly not going to be out done by the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles and Phillies this post season. Today they signed Vladimir Guerrero to a five year contract (contingent on him passing a physical) for a reported $70 million. Guerrero is only twenty-seven years old and was the most talented player on the free agent market.

There is some risk to the deal as Guerrero missed time last year for the first time in his career with back problems. Having watched a bad back end Don Mattingly's great seasons (and his career), it's always something to think about. However, Mattingly's problems were back spasms and not a herniated disc, which can be dealt with.

Guerrero never really received the press he deserved because he played for the Expos and was watched by no one. But the stats in his young career are impressive. Here are his averages for the past six years, and keep in mind that he only played 112 games last year:

Average: .327
OBP: .400
Hits: 195
Homers: 37
RBI: 110
Runs: 99
Doubles: 37
Stolen Bases: 20
Outfield Assists: 13

Vladimir can do it all and now that he will be on natural grass and in a stable environment, he could blossom even further as he is entering the peak years of his career. This is a great pickup for the Angels IF the outfielder is healthy.

The Angels have not been shy this off season and Guerrero caps the signings of Bartolo Colon, Jose Guillen (who had a "coming of age" year last year) and Kelvim Escobar. If all goes as expected, the Angel outfield of Guerrero, Garrett Anderson and Guillen is powerful, athletic and still fairly young.

How about this lineup? Eckstein, Erstad, Guerrero, Anderson, Glaus, Guillen, Salmon, Molina and Adam Kennedy. Whoah! That's a great lineup. The Angels starters? Ramon Ortiz, Bartolo Colon, Jarred Washburn, Kelvim Escobar and then John Lackey or Aaron Sele. The Bullpen? Percival, Weber, Shields and Rodriguez. Wow! On paper, this team becomes the team to beat in the AL West next year.


Leave it to my wife to come up with some players I missed on my Mo Vaughn post:

Mark McGwire: Eleven healthy seasons
Jason Giambi: Coming into his ninth season

Both the above players have had similar knee tendonitis. McGwire's finished his career. What will happen with Giambi? According to my formula, Giambi is coming up on borrowed time.

It was great to read about two old guys finding a home this past week--one, old by baseball standards, and one by any standard. Rafael Palmeiro will bring back his Hall of Fame career to the Baltimore Orioles and Don Zimmer landed with the Devil Rays as an advisor. Good for them and good for baseball!

Speaking of the Orioles and lineups, check this one out: Brian Roberts, Luis Matos, Miguel Tejada, Javy Lopez, Melvin Mora, Jay Gibbons, Rafael Palmeiro, David Segui and Larry Bigbee. That's a great lineup. Now, if they can get Ponson back and get some pitching?

Mo Vaughn announced today that he would not play in 2004 and probably not 2005 either. The first base slugger fell victim to an arthritic knee. The announcement, while short of a retirement statement, could mean the end for Vaughn's career. Vaughn had a terrific and productive career and cut a huge and imposing figure at the plate. The Fan would like to propose in a mini-thesis that there have been many Vaughn-like players in baseball history and unfortunately, they have a short shelf life.

The list presented here should give pause to all General Managers who seek to sign future Mo Vaughns to long term contracts. First, let's define "short shelf life": These are good or great players whose effectiveness lasted from ten to thirteen years:

Mo Vaughn - Ten effective to great years
Kent Hrbek - Twelve effective to great years
Willie Horton - Thirteen effective years (and one great one)
John Mayberry - Ten effective to very good years
George Scott - Twelve effective to very good years
Frank Howard - Twelve very good to great years
Boog Powell - Eleven effective to good years
Cecil Fielder - Eleven pro seasons until he declined (counting both Japan and USA)
Jose Canseco - Thirteen effective to good to great seasons
John Kruk - Eight effective to very good years

My thesis also considers that the ponderous size of these players limited their bodies the ability to maintain an effective level for a long period of time. The effect shortened their careers and though some of these players were among the best in their times for a short season, they lacked the ability to last long enough to give them Hall of Fame careers.

And of the Hall of Famers, the interesting pattern persists:
- Harmon Killebrew stayed in baseball for a long time, but he had thirteen great years. After those years, his skills and statistics diminished.
- Frank Robinson was imposing at the plate and had a long Hall of Fame career, but his stats sharply decline after fourteen excellent seasons.

Now I will be the first to admit that the flaw in my thesis is that I can't tell you what age the above players made it to the majors, which would of course affect how long they stayed around. But it seems to me that big, talented, imposing players tend to make it to the majors earlier than some others. I don't remember any of the above players being the "bang around the minors" type of player.

What about big imposing pitchers? Lee Smith? Fourteen seasons. Don Drysdale? Twelve seasons. Bob Veale? Seven seasons. Jose Mesa? Thirteen good seasons. There are more examples I'm sure, but CSI will be on soon.

What the history above would tell me is that if I was considering free agents or a trade to make and it was a big, raw-boned type of player, I would go for it up until the eighth season and then start making one year offers with incentives. It's a shame that these very good to excellent players don't hold up for very long, but their bodies just aren't made to take that many years of wear and tear.

Just ask the Mets.

Two interesting deals went down this week in Major League Baseball. First, the Arizona Diamondbacks signed Roberto Alomar for one year at $1 million. Next, the Kansas City Royals signed Juan Gonzalez for one year at $4.5 million. The deals are interesting because they begin to show the new reality in free agent signings.

Roberto Alomar has burned his two former teams (the Mets and White Sox) the past two seasons with terrible years. In a Yahoo article that describes the deal, Alomar mentions that he is in better shape than in the previous two seasons. Of course, the hidden admission in Alomar's words are that he showed up the past two season in less than great shape.

Alomar, to me, typifies the type of player who got comfortable after years of making big money. Probably the most talented second basemen to ever play the game, Alomar could use a great year to cement his Hall of Fame status. He needs 321 hits for 3000 and could be a terrific pickup for the Diamondbacks who now have a very interesting team.

Juan Gonzalez has always been an enigma. A hugely talented player, Gonzalez has earned a reputation for lack of effort and a penchant for injuries. Personally, I think Juan has had a bad rap, but Kansas City basically commits what is small change today for one of the best hitters of our times. Gonzalez is only 34 and already has 421 homers in his career. Gonzalez could really blossom again playing for Tony Pena and I think this is a great deal for Pena's team.

The two signings show that major league teams are starting to consider their signings carefully. And some former marquee players are starting to realize that you have to play hard and put up the numbers if you want to continue to earn big paychecks. Both of those realities are very good signs for Major League Baseball and I will be rooting for those teams and those two formerly great ballplayers.

Pete Rose finally admitted to betting on baseball. The collective people of the world look at each other and say, "Well, duh." The only person who never seemed to get the truth was Pete Rose. We all knew he bet on baseball. We all knew he was addicted to gambling and that the addiction ruined his life in baseball. Now he has said the magic words. Should it matter that he did so?

I have stated before in this space my opinion of Pete Rose and my opinion hasn't changed with his new-found emotional strength to admit what he did. Pete Rose belongs in the Hall of Fame. His actions on the field speak louder than all that's happened off the field. But Pete Rose should never step on the MLB field again in any kind of official manner.

What Pete Rose has done is spend years lying to us. But he wasn't just lying to us, he was lying to himself and all the other players he played with, coached and managed. He thought for years that the big lie would wear us down and that after a while, we would soften our stance and forgive him what he never gave us a chance to forgive. Even now, he isn't asking for forgiveness or showing contriteness. He is simply saying, "Yeah, okay...so I bet on some games."

His new book is called "Prison Without Bars." Even the name of the book pushes for our forgiveness. The truth he doesn't get is that he fastened each one of those prison walls and locked his own key. Can anyone tell me what is different between Pete Rose and Art Schlichter? You remember Art Schlichter? He was the Colts quarterback who threw his life away because of his gambling addiction. The only difference between the two is that Rose's career was over before people knew what he was doing. Schlichter's career was just starting.

But Schlichter's sad case demonstrates that gambling addictions don't go away. The ex-quarterback's life has been like a bad B-movie since he left football. Can anyone prove that Pete Rose hasn't placed a bet in the years since he's been away from baseball? Can anyone unconvince me that the only reason he is admitting this now is because he only has two more years to be eligible for the Hall of Fame?

I stand where I stood before the admission. Let him into the Hall of Fame, but never again on the baseball fields in this great sport. And one more thing, if Bud Selig allows Rose to be eligible for the Hall of Fame, he should also reinstate "Shoeless" Joe Jackson, who has a much more compelling reason to be there than Rose.

The two men who should gain election in the Hall of Fame, without all the hoopla are Dennis Eckersley and Paul Molitor. Some will downplay Eckersley's career, but his career did two things. First, he put up the numbers: He won 197 games (three less than David Wells) and he saved 390 games. By my math, that means that Eckersley had a hand in 594 wins in his career.

Secondly, Eckersley changed the game and that alone should put him in the Hall of Fame. Before Eckersley, pitchers like Sutter and Gossage and Rollie Fingers pitched several innings a game and played their whole careers as relievers. By the way, all three of those pitchers should be in the Hall of Fame and only one is.

Since the Eckersley years, the closer is a one inning specialist and his career led to relievers like Tom Gordan, John Smoltz, Kevin Foulke, Jason Isringhausen and before them, Dave Righetti and Tom Henke. Anyone who changes the game belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Molitor should be a no-brainer. The lame argument that he spent a lot of time as a DH doesn't hold up in that he wasn't a lumbering guy at the end of his career banging homeruns and limping around the diamond. He stole fifty bases after the age of forty. Molitor didn't go out with a whimper. He batted .341, .305 and .281 the last three years of his career. He stole 504 bases in his career. He hit 605 doubles, 114 triples and 234 homers to go along with his 3319 hits and .306 lifetime batting average. My case rests.

David Wells decided to go home to San Diego. Getting the final word on George Steinbrenner, Wells said that now he expected never to hear from his former Boss again. But did Wells make the right decision?

To weigh the evidence takes looking at all sides of the decision. Wells is forty years old. He's already had a great career with 200 wins and World Championships. He's not the first player to go home. He's not even the first Yankee this winter to do so. And so going home seems to make sense.

To look at the other side, David's success as a Yankee far out distances his career anywhere else. With the Yankees, Wells was 68-28 which means he won as a Yankee 71 percent of the time. With everyone else, Wells is 132-100 or a 57% success rate.

Surely, you can make the arguments that the Yankees are a perennial winner and that it's easier to be a big winner there than anywhere else. Tell that to Jeff Weaver. Also consider that Mike Mussina won 64% of his games with the mostly lowly Orioles and in three years with the Yankees has won...64% of his games. Yup. Look it up.

Sometimes there is just a relationship to a man and a place. Wells was built to pitch for the Yankees. He pitched for the team for two years, left for three and came back to pitch two more years. His record in both of those stints was an identical 34-14. To look at some more of David's statistics with the Yankees, see the comparison chart below:

1st two years 2nd two years
Innings 432.1 419.1
Hits allowed 434 452
Walks 74 65
Strikeouts 319 238
Homers allowed 61 45
ERA 3.83 3.93

Wells gave up more hits this time around, but fewer walks and kept the ball in the yard more often. Other than that, you see the picture of Yankee consistency. But what is truly remarkable is that he won 71% of his games the first two years and 71% of this games the second pair. Wells was one of the best Yankee pitchers of all times.

It's hard to blame the Yankees for not being serious about signing Wells. They offered him a minor league contract. Who can forget that he couldn't go in one of the biggest games of his career? Who knows how that series would have gone if he could have pitched? And who knows if the Padres will get what they pay for? Wells just had his second back surgery and is forty years old.

The Padres will be happy to get 200 innings out of Wells with that 56% chance of winning so who can blame them either? The Fan and all fans can't blame him Wells. Guaranteed money and being home sounds like a good deal to me. But another season at 71% might have helped a Hall of Fame consideration, no?

Yankee fans won't forget Mr. Wells. With his top button open and pitch after pitch in the strike zone, he was a favorite and memories of his perfect game and World Series triumph will last a long time.

It has been a quiet week in the baseball off season, but that is to be expected with the holiday week. When the big news of the week is that an owner fainted, it's a slow week.

The Boss did faint this week, but have no fear Yankee haters. Mr. Steinbrenner will not fade from your gun sights just yet. The big man just had too much sun or something but he's in good health. When it happened, the natural thought for fans was what impact the loss of King George would mean to the Yankees. If the Yankees could keep his money, I think the team would really take off and become the best baseball organization there is. For all his money and efforts, he short circuits his baseball men and strips them of prospects and continuity.

Isn't it amazing how the Tony Batistas of the world always seem to find a job until everyone smartens up and sees that he takes more away from a team than he adds in. Batista has hit under .250 four times in his career. He has a horrible .302 on base average for his career. He has a hundred more strikeouts in his career than homeruns. And he's never been much of a third baseman either.

But the Expos were fooled again, just like the Orioles, the Diamondbacks and the Blue Jays. Batista is a weird player who doesn't seem to try sometimes and I can't understand why anyone would want him.

On the other hand, Brian Jordan is a nice pickup for the Rangers. Jordan is a guy who has been held back by injuries in his career because he plays like a madman. But his play is inspirational and seems just the ticket for the Rangers who have been through some much surrealism this season.

I like the Red Sox pickup of Pokey Reese. The man is a wizard at second base and if he can have a career year and hit .300, look out A.L. East!

One more note from the perspective of a fan. I don't want Kenny Lofton to win the centerfield job in New York. He has always seemed like another player who turns it on and off at will and I don't think he adds as much as he detracts. There is a reason why his teams have never received the championship ring. And to throw six million at a guy who is at the end of his career is just plain stupid. Give me a gimpy Bernie Williams over Lofton any day of the week.

The Baltimore Orioles are giving their fans a present for Christmas: Hope. After signing Miguel Tejada and now Javy Lopez, the Orioles are tooling for success. Now they are setting their sights for Vladimir Guerrero.

The Orioles finished in fourth place in the AL East for six straight seasons. They brought in Mike Hargrove and the human rain delay was to be the team's salvation. But that salvation was delayed as well by bad personnel decisions and worse pitching. The first thing that the Orioles did was to bring in Lee Mazzilli. Mazzilli should be a breath of fresh air. But nice air is nothing without the horses.

General Manager, Mike Flanagan has brought in the horses. When you add Tejada and Lopez to Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Jay Gibbons and Luis Matos, you've got a pretty serious lineup. The only question with Javy Lopez is his health and whether or not 2003 was a career season for the slugging catcher. $22.5 million is a lot to invest in a 33 year old catcher.

So far, Flanagan hasn't addressed the starting pitching. In fact, the pitching has seemed to step backwards with the release of Jason Johnson and Damion Moss, who was the big part of the Sidney Ponson deal with San Francisco last year. I look at the team's roster and see a bunch of nobodies. Clearly, Flanagan needs at least two stud pitchers.

It is also clear that every team in the AL East has improved from the Yankees on down to Tampa Bay. Can the Orioles climb any higher than the top three this year?

In either case, Oriole fans have been quiet in their wait for some progress and continue to support their team well. It should be a happy holiday as there should be some more balls flying around Camden Yards.