Bobby's HiJenks

Perhaps you have seen this story this morning where Bobby Jenks, the injured pitcher of the Boston Red Sox, was charged with five misdemeanors including DUI and leaving the scene of an accident that involved property damage. There should be little tolerance for this kind of thing. Sure, we can all say that young men with lots of money will make mistakes. But it's not like these players aren't warned about these kinds of happenings. And 99.9 percent of major league players never become involved in this sort of behavior.

The story is kind of frightening actually. Jenks knew he was going to flunk the field sobriety test and said he had been taking too many muscle relaxants. Taking too many muscle relaxants? Why would he be doing that? This would seem to indicate that Jenks is having a problem with his medication as he tries to recover from a back surgery. If he knew he would flunk the field sobriety test, then he should have known that he shouldn't be driving.

After he was pulled over, Jenks mentioned that he hit a parked car at a strip club earlier. The story goes on to say that he actually hit two parked cars. The admission was nice and stuff, but why the heck didn't he stop after he hit those cars? Talk about bad judgement after bad judgement. And why do players go to strip clubs? Look, there is no moral objection to strip clubs here. The sex trade is as old as time and people are going to do what they are going to do. Far too much money is spent in this country trying to root out this sex business that could be spent better in other places. But still. Strip clubs cause massive headaches for young men with lots of money. Why risk that?

So now Bobby Jenks is going to face charges and perhaps could see some short jail time. The Red Sox cannot be pleased. They have already had a contentious off season and this doesn't help. Plus, Jenks has accused the Red Sox' doctors of screwing up his back. So the marriage between the team and the player can't be in the best of shapes to begin with. The team is now going to be torn between taking care of the player's health and distancing themselves from his actions. Plus, expect MLB to get involved because the influence he was driving under was drug related. Fun, fun, fun.

Bobby's HiJenks are an unwelcome story. It can't be winked at and it can't be ignored. Jenks has shown in this incident multiple errors of judgement and he's made a mess that he is going to have to live with for quite some time.

Not a Fan of ball in Japan

The Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners will begin their regular season schedules playing each other for two games in Japan. The games will occur nearly a full week before anyone else is playing regular season baseball. Why is that? Do people really like this idea? After the two games are played, the two teams will not have any more regular season baseball until a week later. Does that make any sense? This is all about Bud Selig's world view and taking baseball's popularity around the world. But is it necessary?

Perhaps this writer is being a bit of a curmudgeon. Things are supposed to be linear, at least in this mind. Everyone is supposed to start the season at the same time. Opening Day should be one grand event where all thirty teams are in action and we can all celebrate together. Instead, we'll have an odd standings for a week where two teams will have a record and the rest of the teams won't. And then when the regular season opens on April 4, two teams won't be heard from until April 6.

The first question is whether baseball needs this. It is easy to see that Japan is already extremely big on baseball. Since the sport was introduced over there in the early Twentieth Century, the passion for the sport  has been transforming. As such, there is already much interest in Japan for all baseball--their own and in the majors. Many of Japan's biggest stars have signed in the majors and media interest has been through the roof over there. So it is not that these games will pique that interest any higher. It will be nice for the Japanese fans to see Ichiro Suzuki in action again. But still. What is to be gained by the exercise?

Is this a bone that Selig has thrown the Japanese for the hundreds of millions of dollars the fans there spend on MLB merchandise? What about the Mariners' season ticket holders? They lose two home games plus the Mariners lose those gate receipts and all that goes with it. The venders and parking garages lose two games of income. Since the A's struggle with attendance anyway, why not at least have made these two games Athletic home games?  ***Update. The schedule was looked at incorrectly. The A's are considered the home team. But still...

And how does the exercise affect the two teams that have to go over there to play? It has to disrupt the springs of those two teams as their pitchers can't get their full spring reps to get ready for the season. It has to affect the young and fringe players who needed a full spring schedule to make their cases to make the big club. Sure, there will be some exhibitions over there and that will help. But it's not like facing big league pitching here.

It all just seems kind of pointless. Plus, it makes the start of the season messy. This may make Bud Selig all squishy inside, but the feelings here just fall kind of flat. Not a Fan of ball in Japan. Not a Fan at all.

The Reds are Dusty

You know how you avoid bending over so that your underwear does not show? Writing about baseball can be like that. Topics are sometimes avoided because of fear you will look either biased or uninformed and neither is a comfortable place to be. In this particular space, posts about the Cincinnati Reds have been particularly avoided and it is not because the team is disliked. On the contrary, Cincinnati is a great baseball town with a rich baseball history. Some of the players there are favorites like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Mike Leake. To be honest, the Reds have been avoided because of bias about their manager, Dusty Baker.

No, it is not Baker's skin color that causes the bias. This space should not even exist if that were the case. The bias goes back to personally blaming Baker for the demise of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior during Baker's tenure with the Cubs. Those two pitchers should have been the dynamic duo for a decade. And like most biases, this one is not even logical because we simply do not know if Wood and Prior would have developed the injuries they did no matter how they were used by Baker. But they were hurt under his watch and care and he is held responsible.

And it is not like those two were isolated instances. There was Bill Swift and Jeff Brantley and others that were never the same after perceived overwork under Baker's watch. There is also the perception here that he hasn't been able to close the deal. In his eighteen years as a manager, his teams have won a grand total of one National League pennant and no World Series titles. His record in the post season is 17-22 including the Reds' colossal blowout at the hands of the Phillies in 2010.

But big picture, Dusty Baker has had success as a manager. His teams have a .521 winning percentage and all of his teams combined have finished in first place in the division four times. That is not a bad record. He managed Barry Bonds for ten seasons and lived to tell about it (if he so chose). So, there's that. And it cannot be forgotten that he was a very good baseball player in his day as well. This bias has to be dealt with because the Reds are still a factor in the NL Central this coming season and his team cannot continue to be avoided like they are contagious or something.

It is time to "man up" about this particular bias. Now that it is out in the open, it can be dealt with. Baseball Prospectus predicts the Reds will win slightly few games than the Cardinals in 2012. With such a close race predicted in the NL Central this coming season, that race will need attention. And a lot of Baker's decisions will be important if every game counts in that divisional battle. It all starts with how his rotation will start the season as he has seven pitchers vying for the five spots. The season will be fascinating and this space and its readers have been shortchanged by a bias that simply has no good reason for existence. 

Buck Showalter meets his Waterloo

No one can exactly determine the benefit or harm a baseball manager brings to his team. The oft-trotted out discourses are the chemistry, organization, inspiration sides of what a manager does. But how to you measure that? You can't. Fairly or unfairly, a manager is judged by the bottom line of wins and losses. If his team wins, the manager gets to hang around. If it loses, he's soon replaced. Some managers are known for the long-term stability they bring to a team like Tommy Lasorda, Bobby Cox and others. Some are known for changing teams, changing the culture and bringing new-found success. Billy Martin comes to mind. Some did both such as Tony La Russa. Buck Showalter is in the Billy Martin category. That is until he met his Waterloo in Baltimore.

Showalter's hiring in Baltimore to lead the Orioles was seen as brilliant coup by the organization. And the honeymoon of 2010 when he took over a ragtag bunch and led them the rest of the way to a nearly .600 winning percentage was the stuff of legends. Showalter had done it again after previous experiences of helping build the Yankees to their first playoff berth in years back in 1995. He was considered one of the architects of the Yankee glory years that followed. He followed that up by piloting the Arizona Diamondbacks as a new franchise back in 1998 and had them in the playoffs with a 100-win season just a year later. His 91-game run as the Orioles' skipper in 2010 seemed to cement his reputation as a re-builder of lost dreams. And then 2011 happened.

Unlike Showalter's last miracles, 2010 ended up as a mirage. The full weight of a strangled organization came tumbling around his ankles like a pair of old trousers in 2011 and the team was abysmal. To be fair, Showalter would have needed a hundred fingers to plug the water of runs that poked holes in the 2011 dike that was the Baltimore Orioles. The team simply could not prevent runs if their lives depended on it. The team was dead last in runs allowed, home runs hit and hits in general. And that wasn't their only problem.

Poor old Vladimir Guerrero and his aching wheels were just a semblance of his former self and he walked only seventeen times in 590 plate appearances. Mark Reynolds struck out another 196 times and played some of the poorest third base seen in this generation. Injuries to Brian Roberts and Luke Scott didn't help nor did a revolving door of replacement players like Felix Pie, Jake Fox and Josh Bell. 

There were some bright spots. J.J. Hardy had been discarded by two different organizations and found himself near the top of a weak MLB cast of shortstops. Nick Markakis had a solid season, Matt Wieters started to show why he was such a highly touted prospect behind the plate and Jim Johnson was yeoman in the bullpen. But they weren't enough.

Many look at the front office of the Orioles past and present and can't see any kind of solid plan taking shape. The team has an owner with the reputation of sticking his hands in the pie and defeating the process. A once proud franchise has fallen on hard times and their new neighbors, the Nationals, have a chance of eating into the fan base.

Where does Showalter fit into all of this? He doesn't. He's just a tired, old guy who has taken to randomly taking verbal shots at the AL East competition. Perhaps that's harsh. In fact, it is harsh. He did rouse his bunch to knock off the Red Sox last September. You have to give him his share of credit for the improvement and belief in Hardy and Wieters. He simply doesn't have enough horses and there isn't much rising help underneath the major league level to come and lift them.

Will 2012 be any better for Showalter and his Orioles? Perhaps just a little. They have pitched well in Spring Training, but the projected rotation of two unproven Japanese imports, two former pitching prospects that have had trouble mastering the majors and Jason Hammel do not provide much hope that this year's rotation will be any better than the last. Brian Roberts is still in limbo. The bullpen, led by Johnson could be decent but is suspect at the back end with Alfredo Simon and Pedro Strop. All in all, the Baseball Prospectus prediction of 73 wins seems downright giddy.

Buck Showalter, former franchise savior, has met his match in this scenario. His reputation has met its Waterloo. You have to wonder if in the back of Showalter's mind, he wishes he had stayed at ESPN.

BBA Linkfest - General Thaw

Winter can be a painfully depressing time for a New Englander. Vast white and gray landscapes, short days and day after day without warmth can wreck havoc on a soul. To complicate matters, there is no baseball except in the memories, the stat sites and with the writing of fine colleagues of the General Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. Reading their work has helped get this New Englander through another long winter. A surprisingly warm spell hit this area of the world this week and three feet of snow melted in four days. The ground lays bare with just a few remnants of blackened and mottled snow. The thaw is here. The sump pump is humming. Recreational baseball is being played in Arizona and Florida and the General Chapter is chirping happily from their fingertips. Here are Thursday's links:

Who doesn't love prediction posts this time of year? This Fan will break out his own crystal ball here in a week or so. In the mean time, what do you think of For Baseball Junkies predictions?

The Baseball Index is doing their own prognosticating and selects its key players for each team in the National League East.

Got to love trick shots performed with a baseball bat. Perhaps you've seen that viral video of that guy hitting a ball into the nets strategically placed around the infield. If you loved that, you'll love this one featured on The Golden Sombrero. And congrats to Mike Rosenbaum for his new gig at The Bleacher Report. He promises he will still maintain his site though.

If you love great writing and baseball cards, check no further than Grubby Glove's latest entry.

Leave it to the Hall of Very Good to find the second coming of the Batting Stance Guy. And he is terrific too. Just like HOVG.

Yes!! Theo of Hot Corner Harbor has another installment of his great series on retired numbers. 

The Fan's good friend and writer of Left Field explains in a lovely piece how he developed such a eclectic taste in music. 

Thank goodness for Michael Schwartze! This Fan can never figure out easily who is a rookie and who isn't. Now all this Fan has to do is go to Mike's post over at MLB Dirt and refresh the memory.Oh, and check out the Fan's post over there this week. It was a fun one to write.

Watching spring baseball can get...umm...boring after a while. Sam Evans of MLB Reports has some great suggestions on how to punch it up a bit. You go, Sam.

Nik has been listing the top ten players on each team for the past couple of weeks over at his Niktig's Baseball Blog. Check this one out on the Red Sox.

So this Fan was hoping to someday see Trevor Bauer do that long toss thing he does. So it was a miracle of sorts when MTD came through with a video of said event on his Off Base Percentage site.. And it's amazing. Make sure you click the full screen thingy on the video to get the full scope. And then hit escape to read MTD's always terrific writing of the feat we just saw.

Old Time Family Baseball always has lots of exotic and kinky baseball stuff to enjoy everyday. Unfortunately, this Fan hasn't been able to figure out how to link the ones it doesn't title. So the link is to the site and then scroll down to find the cool rally hat.

Geoff Ratliff of the Pop Fly Boys gives us ten fantasy baseball players to shoot for in his latest post. And he gives all the appropriate warnings too.

In a post that only TCM could pull off, his The Platoon Advantage post tells George Brett to shut up.

This Fan is probably the only guy in America that hates March Madness. But if it's your thing, check out Rational Pastime's bracket challenge series. It's so good that the Fan almost got interested.

Speaking of that NCAA extravaganza, The Sports Banter made some predictions.

Sully of Sully Baseball somehow predicted American Idol's theme night topic with his heading for his great piece on the Mets this week.

In probably this Fan's favorite post this week, Jeff Dickinson of Through the Fence Baseball asks the great question: Is Jerry Sands the next Paul Konerko?

Mike Cardano of the X-Log tries to dampen our enthusiasm of Yeonis Cespedes and has a point.

Jeremy Wolf is in prediction mode as he's begun a series over at his Wolf's Den site. This one is on the Cardinals.

Staying in prediction mode, Eugene Tierney of 85% Sports fame previews the Philadelphia Phillies.

For years now, previewing the Pittsburgh Pirates has been a drag. Ryan Sendek's 2012 version isn't anything of the sort over at his Analysis Around the Horn site.

Has the Fan told you that he adores Babes Love Baseball's Haiku season previews? This version is for the Baltimore Orioles and check out that picture! How perfect! We also learn that J.J. Hardy is a hottie.

Daniel over at The Ball Caps Blog pays tribute to some female sports writers and rightly so. There needs to be a book on this topic!

Somehow the Fan missed this on Twitter, but Dirk Hayhurst has left Italian baseball behind. Stevo-sama of the terrific The Baseball Enthusiast fills us in on the details.

Baseball Unrated has the headline of the year. Seriously, how can you ever top, "The Tortoise and LaHair"? You can't.

FHPromos of Baseballism bounces off a Tyler Kepner article on this Fan's favorite 2012 topic. Oh pleeeease let it come true Rockies!

Justin Jabs ranks first basemen in a great offering on his Baseblog site.

Mario Salvini covers the recent flap of C.J. Wilson's Twitter prank on Mike Napoli at his Che Palle! site. This Fan didn't think it was funny.

The predictions barrel on in spectacular fashion as Matt Whitener previews the AL Central over at Cheap.Seats.Please.

Dizzy Valance of the Crum-Bum Beat starts us off with a great picture and it is all good from there in his sleeper picks of 2012.

The Diamond Hogger's TheNaturalMevs gives us ten bold predictions for 2012. Yes, they are bold. But they make sense.

And finally, Dugout 24 reports on Lance Berkman's shy comments to the commissioner this past week. Yup. Berkman is shy all right.

Have a great week everyone. Real baseball is almost here!

Bullish on the Blue Jays

Yes, we know, we know: Spring Training stats mean nothing. Heck, there was a post here by that title just a week ago. Even so, it is hard to look at what the Toronto Blue Jays are doing this spring and not be a little impressed. Yesterday, on a piece for MLB Dirt, it was explained why the prognosis for the Tampa Bay Rays was bearish. This was a justification for the prediction earlier on that site that the Rays have too many holes to capture a playoff spot for 2012. Before this preseason started, there was already the thought that the Blue Jays were going to be a lot better in 2012 than people thought. The spring they are having merely gives a hint that this thought might be valid.

In a comical response to the aforementioned Bay Rays piece, the terrific Michael Weber (@m_weber) asked MLB Dirt's proprietor, Jonathan Mitchell (@FigureFilbert), if anyone could name the 3-4-5 starters of the Blue Jays rotation. Mitchell responded that he didn't agree with the bearish projection of the Bay Rays but that the piece was well written. But the real answer to Weber's question is that the 3-4-5 rotations spots are going to be better than a lot of people think.

That rotation starts with two studs. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow are two terrific starting pitchers but for different reasons. Romero is a ground ball guy (54.7 percent) who won fifteen games last season with a 2.92 ERA. His FIP was a lot higher at 4.20 but that is somewhat understandable in that his homer rate was over one per nine innings and his BABIP and strand rates have regression shouted all over them. But even if he comes in with a solid ERA in the mid-threes, he's going to be a solid starter in 2012 and will get his share of wins.

Brandon Morrow on the other hand is a guy with an amazing arm who has the ability to just blow people away. Morrow struck out over ten batters per nine innings a year ago. His ERA of 4.72 was very high but his FIP was a lot lower at 3.64. If Morrow can be a little better at home and lower his walk rate just a bit, he is going to be a Cy Young Award candidate. He has that kind of talent.

But Weber's question still hasn't been answered yet. Who are the next three starters? There is the forgotten Brett Cecil for one. Cecil had just about as bad a season in 2011 as a pitcher can have. He went 4-11 with an astronomical ERA (and a FIP that was even higher), a 1.60 homer per nine inning rate and a whole lot of messiness. But we are talking about a guy who won fifteen games the year before and by all accounts, he has used 2011 as a wake up call and is on a mission for 2012. Look for a much better season for Cecil in 2012. Book it in fact.

Then there is Henderson Alvarez, who is a lot better pitcher than people realize. He has amazing control and his only limitation will be that the Blue Jays have to monitor his inning count, probably to about 150 innings.

The fifth starter is a problem. By default, the position will go to Dustin McGowan, a guy we all root for because of what he has overcome to get back to the major leagues. But McGowan isn't a long term solution. Kyle Drabek looks a lot better this spring and could regain his once terrific prospect standing. If McGowan falters, Drabek could step in nicely.

So, yes, this rotation isn't filled with the big names everyone knows about. But it's a lot better than people think and since run prevention was the Jays' biggest problem last year, could show a lot better in 2012 and surprise a lot of people. Add this to a much improved bullpen and the Blue Jays could prevent fifty or more runs over last year's total allowed.

Last year's bullpen for the Blue Jays was a disaster. The top two guys, Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch simply couldn't close the deal at the end of the game. The projected bullpen of Sergio Santos, Francisco Cordero, Casey Janssen, Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor and Carlos Villanueva should be very good.

Add an improved pitching staff to a potent offense and you have a surprise team. Jose Bautista has proved that he's a real force and will remain so for years to come. Brett Lawrie looks like the real deal and is killing the ball this spring. The Blue Jays will get his benefit all season which will help tremendously. Adam Lind needs to be better and he has showed that in the past, but his last two seasons lead to a big concern. All the Blue Jays need is for one of the three enigmas of Colby Rasmus, Eric Thames and Travis Snider to have a big season. Edwin Encarnacion will be a good designated hitter and J.P. Arencibia should improve offensively and defensively in his second full season as the everyday catcher. 

Yunel Escobar has proved to be a terrific shortstop away from Bobby Cox and Kelly Johnson is solid if unspectacular at second.

The view here is that the Toronto Blue Jays are a dangerous team. Baseball Prospectus projects them to win 77 games in 2012. Take the over on that big time. There is no reason this team can't win 85 games. For more of an in-depth look at the team's players, The Tao of Stieb has had a fantastic series called "30 Jays in 30 Days." It's highly recommended reading.

Five Years Ago

The latest news on Chase Utley is not good. The Philadelphia Phillies' second baseman has hit a "plateau" in his rehab for his chronic knee problem. Utley has already missed 102 games combined over the last two seasons and his once great career seems at a crossroads. 2010 wasn't quite as off for Utley statistically, but last year, his numbers really dipped. His power at the plate seemed sapped and it really cannot give anyone any optimism that Utley can again be the elite second baseman he once was. There is no joy in this for any baseball fan no matter what team you root for. When an elite player has his career and abilities cut short due to chronic injuries, we all suffer. 

It was this sort of mourning moment that prompted a look at Utley's career. Just five years ago, he was one of the best players in the game. Not only was he a hitting machine as a second baseman, he was the best at playing his position. It was noting his several top ten finishes for the MVP Award that prompted this post. The focus was put on 2007. That was just five seasons ago. Five years is nothing in the grand scheme of things, but so much has changed in baseball since then that perusing the MVP finishes for 2007 are astounding. Let's look first at the American League:

1. Alex Rodriguez (New York Yankees) - A-Rod hit 54 homers, drove in 154 and finished with an OPS of 1.067. A-Rod has become a shell of that just five years later.
2. Magglio Ordonez (Detroit Tigers) - Ordonez had 216 hits in 2007 batted .363 with 28 homers and 139 RBIs. Ordonez is now out of baseball.
3. Vladimir Guerrero (Angels) - Guerrero had 186 hits in 2007 and batted .324. He drove in 125 and even posted a .403 on-base percentage. Guerrero could not get a job this off season.
4. David Ortiz (Boston Red Sox) - Ortiz is still cranking.
5. Mike Lowell (Boston Red Sox) - Lowell batted .324 in 2007 with 191 hits. He drove in 120 runs with 21 homers. Lowell has been out of baseball for two seasons now.
6. Jorge Posada (New York Yankees) - 2007 might have been Posada's finest season (at least offensively). He retired this off season.
7. Victor Martinez (Cleveland Indians) - Had a terrific year in 2011 but busted up his knee and will miss 2012. He might not have a job when he returns.
8. Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle Mariners) - Cranked out 234 more hits in 2007. Didn't reach 200 last season for the first time.
9. Carlos Pena (Tampa Bay Devil Rays) - Had a 2007 slash line of .282/.411/.627. Hit 46 homers. He has flirted with the Mendoza Line the last couple of seasons.
10. Curtis Granderson (Detroit Tigers)
11. Derek Jeter (New York Yankees)
12. Grady Sizemore (Cleveland Indians) - Scored 118 runs and hit 24 homers as a lead off batter. Injuries has derailed his career.

And now the National League:

1. Jimmy Rollins (Philadelphia Phillies) - Rollins was the best shortstop in baseball in 2007. Had a two-digit season in doubles, homers and triples. Rollins is not the best shortstop anymore. 
2. Matt Holliday (Colorado Rockies) - Among the best sluggers in the game in 2007. OPS of 1.016. Now he is more known for moths in his ear and injuries at critical times.
3. Prince Fielder (Milwaukee Brewers) - Prince wasn't rich yet. But he was working on it. He is now.
4. David Wright (New York Mets) - Wright has become a tragic figure in New York and Citi Field put a stop to his prodigious numbers. Has not come close to having MVP-consideration numbers for years.
5. Ryan Howard (Philadelphia Phillies) - Bad contract, but lots of RBIs. Blew out his Achilles Ankle in last year's playoffs.
6. Chipper Jones (Atlanta Braves) - Now a part time player on his last gimpy legs.
7. Jake Peavy (San Diego Padres) - After several years of coming back for devastating injuries, there is now talk of making him a relief pitcher. Five years ago, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.
8. Chase Utley (Philadelphia Phillies) - The player that prompted this exercise.
9. Albert Pujols (St. Louis Cardinals) - Still mashing and should have a big season for the Angels.
10. Hanley Ramirez (Miami Marlins) - Considered at the time the best player in the NL not named Pujols. Looking for a comeback season in 2012 after a couple of way off years.
11. Eric Byrnes (Arizona Diamondbacks) - Eric Byrnes!? Just five years ago...
12. Alfonso Soriano - (Chicago Cubs) - Not much talk of a bad contract just five years ago like there is now.

As you can see, a lot has changed in just five short seasons. Remember how brittle careers are and enjoy today's great players. Who knows what will happen to them five years from now.

Luis Mendoza: A ruined post

Ah! The life of a baseball writer. After pouring over spring results and stats on a Saturday morning, the search was on for a glimmer of a post idea. The search led to Luis Mendoza of the Kansas City Royals. Wow! He's having a good spring! And this is after a strong Triple A campaign and two excellent starts in September with the big club. This was the story idea that was needed. Luis Mendoza is a sleeper pick! But since the fear of being stupid is one of the strongest motivators, the thought occurred that perhaps opinions on the subject should be culled from others. The result? Nobody believes in the guy.

Something certainly seemed to happen last year that turned Mendoza's life around. To explain that statement, we need a little history first. The Mexican pitcher was signed by the Red Sox as a free agent way back in 2000. Mendoza was seventeen years old. He kicked around in the Red Sox lower minors for years and apparently hit a wall in 2005. The San Diego Padres claimed him on waivers in 2005 and he was terrible for their A+ league and the Red Sox claimed him back. In 2006, the Red Sox traded Mendoza to the Texas Rangers for the then 33 year old Bryan Corey. Corey pitched nine times for the Red Sox in 2007 and got himself a World Series Ring, but the career minor league pitcher's career fizzled and after 91 MLB appearances, Corey was out of baseball after the 2010 season.

Back to Mendoza. Unlike the past two seasons when the team has turned their pitching around, the Texas Rangers were perennially poor in the pitching department when Mendoza arrived in the organization in 2006. They were starved for pitching. They installed Mendoza at the Double A level despite that being above where he had pitched before. It didn't go well in 2006. But in 2007, Mendoza went 15-4 for the Rangers' Double A affiliate in Frisco of the Texas League. Mendoza's stats weren't too far removed from other years, but again, the Rangers were starved for pitchers. When the rosters expanded in September, the Rangers brought Mendoza to the majors where after seven long years in the minors, Mendoza made his major league debut on September 8, 2007.

Mendoza pitched six times for the Rangers that September including three starts. He finished with a 2.25 ERA. For a team that desperately needed pitching, this was encouraging. As such, he was invited to Spring Training in 2008 and despite a somewhat poor spring, the Rangers put him in the rotation to start the 2008 season. It was a disaster. Mendoza pitched a total of 63.1 innings, went 3-8 and had an ERA of 8.67. Mendoza then spent 2009 in the minors. Before the season started in 2010, the Rangers traded Luis Mendoza to the Royals in a cash deal.

Mendoza pitched for the Royals Triple A affiliate in Omaha in 2010 after getting a brief look in April. In four April appearances for the Royals, Mendoza got bombed and he was sent down to Omaha. We are getting closer to the present. Craig Brown of the fine Royal's blog, Royals Authority, wrote the following on what happened next:

Those results led him to Omaha pitching coach Doug Henry who broke down Mendoza’s delivery. He adjusted his arm angle to release the ball on a higher plane which gave his fastball a little more sink. He also worked on developing a consistent delivery – something he apparently had difficulty accomplishing in the past. 

The transformation was astounding.

It was indeed. In 2011, Luis Mendoza went 12-5 for Omaha in 144.1 innings of work. He had a 2.18 ERA. His hits per nine innings were his lowest in eight years going back to his early years in the low minors. His season merited a September call up to the Royals where he went 2-0 in two starts with a breezy 1.23 ERA. But both Craig Brown of the aforementioned Royals' blog nor Jeff Parker of the very fine Royally Speaking blog are buying it. Brown's conclusion in the same piece:

In a perfect world Mendoza opens the year in Triple-A and is in the mix for emergency spot starter. He’s a guy who can fill in for a few starts in the back of the rotation. But if you’re counting on him to make quality starts for you throughout the season, you may as well book your reservation for the bottom half of the division. 

And Jeff Parker's thoughts: 

If I'm right and he (Mendoza) does make the rotation then I think we could see a repeat of what Sean O'Sullivan did last year. Like Mendoza, O'Sullivan is trying to survive with a low strikeout rate (4.2 SO/9). Last season he had a 2.16 ERA after his first 4 starts but his other numbers were telling a story that would produce an unhappy ending. In 25 innings he had 13 strikeouts and 13 walks and held hitters to an unsustainable .227 BAbip, meaning he was more lucky than good, and at some point the wheels would fall off. And boy, did they ever. His next 5 starts produced a 11.10 ERA and he was compassionately removed from the rotation making just one more start all year (a token September appearance in which he gave up 6 runs in 5 innings). 

Brown also mentions that Mendoza's two September starts were against a Tigers team that had already won the division and the White Sox who had quit as a team in August. The caveat that both are talking about is Mendoza's low strikeout rate. Mendoza also had a .229 BABIP last season in his two starts. Both writers doubt that Mendoza can have long term success with such a low strikeout rate. It's hard to argue with those conclusions. But it's also worth noting that so far this spring, Mendoza has struck out eleven batters in 10.2 innings of work. And he's only given up one run all spring.

Parker contends that the spring stats are meaningless because of weak competition. In one game in which Mendoza faced the Rockies for four and two-thirds innings, Parker contends that it was a really weak line up the pitcher faced.

It's hard to argue with either writer. Mendoza has never, ever, struck out a high number of batters. Surviving in the majors is tough to do depending on your fielders to catch a ball in play on nearly every batter. But it does appear that when camp breaks, Mendoza will head east to Kansas City and will start the season in the rotation. This post started as a thought to make Luis Mendoza a sleeper pick. It ends as a warning of trouble ahead.

Maybe Dunn Isn't Done

Adam Dunn's season was as historic a year ago as Babe Ruth's was in 1920. Nobody had ever seen a season like that before. But while Ruth's historic season was for all the right things, Dunn's was historic for all the wrong reasons. Nobody had ever seen a guy get 496 plate appearances and hit .159. Dunn struck out 36 percent of his at bats. Incredible. After averaging 40 homers a season for seven seasons, he hit eleven. His homer per fly ball rate went from eight straight seasons over 20 percent to 9.6 percent. His season reminds one of Yosemite Sam after a drawbridge fell on him and he was wobbling around like a pancake with legs. It was brutal.

So along comes the annual preseason predictions from colleagues at MLB Dirt. Two colleagues predicted Adam Dunn to be 2012's Comeback Player of the Year. Seriously? Can a guy ever come back from a season like that? Well. It's possible. It's not like Adam Dunn was old last season. It's not like he was 37 or something and his skills just evaporated. He played his historic season a year ago at the age of 31. So, Dunn is not over the hill. Plus, unlike most, he has a long-term guaranteed contract that sort of forces the White Sox not to give up on him. But will it happen?

To gauge other thoughts on the subject, all the major projection systems were consulted. While none believe a collapse like last year is possible, they all think that Dunn will not recover completely. Predictions for his batting average ranged from a low of .209 to a high of .225. Remember, we are talking about a guy who hovered just above and below the .250 mark for years and years. Home run predictions range from 20 to 28. Again, we're talking about a guy who averaged 40 for seven straight seasons. 

Dunn's manager, Ozzie Guillen, has gone on record as stating that coming into camp last season and watching Dunn take batting practice, Guillen knew they had a problem on their hands. Dunn's Spring Training last season did not shout alarm. Yes, he batted only .224 in camp last year. But he hit three homers, four doubles and even hit a triple. Production-wise, it was his best Spring Training in three years. But there was one cause of alarm. In 2011's Spring Training, Adam Dunn struck out 27 times in just 67 at bats. That was a 40 percent strikeout rate.

Dunn, to his credit, has been all positive this spring. He himself predicts he will win the Comeback Player of the Year Award. That's awesome for him as a person as most of us would deal with such colossal failure by hiding under a rock somewhere. Are there any signs that Dunn can back up his prediction? As you have been told in this space a million times, spring statistics are meaningless. But we can use them as a sign that a player has a possibility of recovering from disaster.

Again, Dunn struck out 27 times in 67 at bats last spring. This spring, he has played seven games (hardly a proper sample size) and has thirteen at bats. He has only stuck out once. That's right. Once. With last year's strikeout rate, he should have struck out five times already. So that's a positive sign. Again, in a puny sample size, Dunn is batting just over .300 with two homers. Those are good signs.

The White Sox, with their outlay of money on Dunn's contract, have to give Dunn a chance to prove that last year was an outliers. The consideration here is that his track record has to be taken into consideration as hard as that might be after last year's horrid season. The prediction here is that he will bat over .230, hit 35 homers and get on base at an over .350 clip. If those predictions are close, he has that trophy in the bag.

BBA Linkfest - Spring in General

Well, spring has arrived where you are. But it's still a dream here in northern Maine where we got another foot of snow dumped on us last night. So have a care on Twitter when you share how nice a spring day it is where you are. The writers that make up the General Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance must be toasty warm though because they are still cranking out great reading material for their followers. As we do here every Thursday, here are links to the best of their work over the previous week. So, relax, click a few links that strike your fancy and thanks as always for making what we do so rewarding.

Let's start with Old Time Family Baseball which brings us some information on the highest bidder for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Hint: He has a lot of dough. The proprietor of OTFB is headed to Spring Training, the lucky bum!

Matthew Mahaffey of the Pop Fly Boys has a very informative post on bulging discs and how they differ from herniated discs. The reason of course, is because of the Chris Carpenter situation.

Carlos Beltran got a raw deal from the press in New York for his days playing for the Mets. And Bill from The Platoon Advantage reminds us of what a great player Beltran has been. And just in case you think Beltran's contract with the Mets was a bust, check out this piece by yours truly.

In a long and delicious post, Replacement Level Baseball Blog culled opinions from three of our favorite baseball writers to form its AL East preview. A must read.

Sully of Sully Baseball tells the tale of two Rays pitchers that clinched playoff series for that team. And predicts the Rays will be in the playoffs again in 2012.

Rob Harris of Through the Fence Baseball remembers Kirby Puckett and one of the best World Series ever.

Mike Cardano has some interesting thoughts on Bryce Harper over at his X-Log site. Good stuff.

Yeonis Cespedes is the real deal. So says Jeremy over at The Wolf's Den. We'll see, Jeremy, we'll see.

Eugene Tierney of 85% Sports lists his top 20 prospects in the Houston Astros organization. That couldn't have been an easy task.

Ryan Braun's possible suspension and eventual overturning of that suspension has thrown off many fantasy baseball draft boards. Ryan Sendek of Analysis Around the Horn has the details.

This site had a 2012 preview of the Rockies this past week. The post was over a thousand words long. Sooze of Babes Love Baseball sums it them up more succinctly and with much greater entertainment value in her latest Haiku.

Daniel of The Ball Caps Blog received his alumni newsletter this past week and was pleasantly surprised at who the graduation speaker would be this year.

Baseball Unrated has a great piece this week on how young stars are taking over the game.

Justin has a great series going at his BaseBlog site ranking the positional players for each of the NL Central teams. This one ranks the center fielders. 

Tim Holland of Call to the Pen considers Albert Pujols in light of some great seasons in 1966, 1977 and 1988. Great stuff, Tim.

Matt Whitener has a twelve part series going on the St. Louis Cardinals for his Cheap.Seats.Please. The series is in conjunction with his other work at St. Louis Sports 360 where you can finish the rest of the articles. This link is to part six. You should read them all.

There's always great writing going on over at Crum-Bum Beat. And you should check out their sleeper picks for 2012 if you haven't already. But this picture the site shared induced nightmares.

Dugout 24 has a post this week on the art of base stealing. You'll need to translate the German.

The Baseball Index has the latest on a gastronomical feast happening this summer in Washington, D.C. And like the pitcher it's named after, the dish will stay with you like his 12 to 6 curve.

Over at the The Golden Sombrero, Griffin Phelps give Houston Astros fans some reasons to celebrate their team in 2012. 

TheNaturalMevs is not a fan of Fredi Gonzalez. And that's putting it mildly. Check out Diamond Hoggers for the details. Perhaps we need a new blog called, "Fire Fredi."

Your favorite Fan is admittedly also a fanatical fan of American Idol. Yes, that isn't cool. But we all have our  weaknesses. The Hall of Very Good scratched that itch this week.

It's a tough job but somebody had to do it. Theo of Hot Corner Harbor previews the 2012 Baltimore Orioles. 

Who says us baseball men aren't romantic? Left Field shares a wonderful love story on the occasion of his second anniversary. Congrats, mate, but you do know that you have the second best wife in the world. The best lives right here.

MLB Dirt has added another great writer. His name is Troy Kocur. Check out his great preview of the 2012 Kansas City Royals. 

In the Fan's best post of the week category, Sam Evans of MLB Reports celebrates the legacies of Joe Torre and Tony LaRussa.

Nik has gotten into the spirit of things based on MLB's Top Ten. He shares his top ten Detroit Tigers over at Niktig's Baseball Blog.

There you have it! May your spring have sprung wherever you are. This Fan is thankful that these writers hold the promise for days without snow sometime soon. Have a great week, everyone.

Spring Training statistics are meaningless

If you were a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers, you might have been excited about Erick Almonte during Spring Training in 2011. The career minor league player was 33 and ten years removed from his first cup of coffee with the Yankees in 2001. He killed the ball last spring with a Cactus League slash line of, .416/.438/.636. Almonte opened a lot of eyes and when the Brewers headed north to start the season, Almonte made the team.  It was a nice story. But once the Brewers started the season, Almonte stopped hitting. By the end of April, in 29 plate appearances, he batted .103 with the same on-base percentage. He was shipped to the minors on April 26 and wasn't heard from again.

It's hard not to think Spring Training baseball is real. We watch the games on television and they look like real baseball. And sure enough, each inning contains three outs and umpires look official. But Spring Training is a really strange animal. The starting pitcher may pitch four or five innings and the next pitcher could be anyone from Double A to a Triple A team. Many times the rosters are watered down further when teams play split games and the team plays two games in the same day. Plus, we are dealing with extremely small sample sizes. Almonte collected 77 plate appearances last spring and he was on the higher end of the scale. Anyone can get hot in 77 plate appearances.

To be fair to Almonte, the guy has hit extremely well in Triple A the last couple of years and 29 plate appearances to start the regular season is just as extreme a sample size. Almonte went on to hit at an .827 OPS clip in Nashville after his demotion.

But there are other guys who got more than 29 plate appearances in the 2011 regular season after having a fabulous Spring Training. No doubt fans of the then Florida Marlins were feeling better about the Dan Uggla trade after Omar Infante hit .414 in the Grapefruit League last year. That good feeling disappeared after 640 regular season plate appearances as Infante finished with a .696 OPS for the Marlins last season.

And there are others. Kevin Kouzmanoff had a 1.021 OPS during Spring Training last season. He ended up with a .656 OPS playing for two teams during the 2011 regular season. Heck, even Willie Bloomquist hit .400 last spring before the real games started.

Perhaps the biggest sensation of Spring Training last year was Kila Ka'aihue. Segments of Kansas City Royals fans felt vindicated when the big Hawaiian hit seven homers during Spring Training and sailed along with a 1.306 OPS. Those fans had been pining for the Royals to give Ka'aihue a chance with his minor league slugging history. Ka'aihue's big camp did earn him a spot as the Royals headed into the season. Ka'aihue played in 19 of the Royals first 21 games last season and 23 games overall. He hit .195. His crashing failure led to the beginning of the Eric Hosmer era, which well help Royals fans forget all about Ka'aihue.

And it's not just hitters you should ignore. Zach Britton had a phenomenal spring training for the Orioles last season. He was the next big thing for pitchers coming out of camp. While he didn't have a terrible season, he did struggle and finished with a 90 ERA+. Nick Blackburn went 3-1 for the Twins in 2011's Spring Training with a 1.73 ERA. Unfortunately, Blackburn didn't have that kind of season for the Twins once the regular season started.

The point is that any statistic you see from Spring Training has to be taken with a grain of salt. Perhaps a hot spring can signal a hot season. But just as often, it signals nothing. 

Final 2012 predictions for the NL West

After five posts and countless hours considering the National League West, the final predictions are as follows:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks: 90-72
2. San Francisco Giants: 86-76
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: 83-79
4. Colarado Rockies: 82-80
5. San Diego Padres: 79-83 

The Scrum in the NL West: Rockies

This post concludes the series on previewing the five teams in the National League West. Previous posts have looked at the Padres, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Giants. The theme of the series was the rugby scrum because Baseball Prospectus projected the division for 2012 with all five teams finishing within seven games of each other from top to bottom. Today's post previews the Rockies. As with all of the teams in this division, a lot has to go right for the Rockies to contend and just as much can go wrong.

Things have gone downhill for the Rockies during Jim Tracy's tenure as manager of the team. After their improbable late season run of 2009 after Tracy took over, the team finished that season with 92 wins and a post season berth. They came in third place in 2010 with 83 wins and last year, sunk to 73 wins. Both the offense and the pitching have been going in the wrong direction as you'd expect. The team scored 804 runs in 2009, 770 in 2010 and 735 in 2011. The pitching remained static in 2009 and 2010 with 715 and 717 runs allowed respectively. But that number ballooned a bit to 774 runs allowed in 2011.

BP's projections is that the offense will be more robust with 791 runs scored but that the pitching will be even worse with a projected 802 runs allowed. Of course, these projections are based on an assumption of who will start in both the field and in the rotation. While the line up is pretty much predetermined, the rotation could end up drastically different than how the depth chart is based. Since the rotation is the most potentially contentious part of this team, this preview will start there.

The top two starters in the rotation are most certainly Jeremy Guthrie and Jhoulys Chacin. Guthrie was obtained from the Orioles for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom. If you would consider this a rotation swap of Guthrie for Hammel, then the Rockies should have the better part of this swap. Guthrie should be much better than Hammel. But saying that, we're comparing Guthrie's results for the Orioles against Hammel with half of his games at Coors. On the one hand, you have to worry about how Guthrie's game will translate to his new home ballpark. Guthrie is not a ground ball pitcher. His ground ball to fly ball ratio was exactly one to one. On the other hand, he gets out of the AL East and away from meat-grinder offenses like the Red Sox and Yankees. He should be better than Hammel, but not by much.

The jury is still out on Jhoulys Chacin (whose name is terrible to type over and over). He has transformed himself into much more of a ground ball pitcher relying on a two-seam fastball much heavier in 2011 than in 2010. As a result, his ground ball rate skyrocketed to 56.3 percent. This seemed to be a benefit in his BABIP which was .261. But it also resulted in a much lower strikeout rate which came in at less than two strikeouts per game than what he showed in 2010. And he is still walking people at a rate of four walks per nine innings pitched. That's far too high. So his ERA of 3.69 in 2011 has to be tempered with a FIP of 4.23. BP projects him at 10-11 with a 4.22 ERA. Chacin will have to be much better for this team to contend.

The rest of the projected rotation includes Guillermo Moscoso, who the Rockies received in a trade with Oakland for Seth Smith, Juan Nicasio and Alex White. But those three shouldn't be set in stone. Though the Rockies traded a starter in Smith for Moscoso, the feeling here is that Moscoso's game will not translate well to Coors Field. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher which is fine in Oakland, but not so fine in Coors (but will be fine in three of the other NL West parks to be fair). Nicasio is coming back from a rather dramatic injury after getting hit with a batted ball last year. Nicasio looked terrific in his thirteen starts before the injury and if he can get back to that, would be a terrific benefit to the Rockies' chances.

Alex White seems to be the weakest link of this projected rotation followed closely by Moscoso. White did not have fun in his handful of appearances for the Rockies last year and does not project well. The two other contenders for the rotation are both fascinating. One is Drew Pomeranz, one of the pitchers involved in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal. Pomeranz ran into some bad luck in his starts last year and though his ERA was at 5.40, his FIP was 2.59. Pomeranz has looked terrific so far this spring and could win the job. The other is 49 year old, Jamie Moyer. Everybody is rooting for Moyer to make the team. You can't be a fan and not root for him and his 80 MPH fastball. Heck, he's be better than Aaron Cook was last year.

The bullpen situation isn't rosy. The closer is the vastly overlooked, Rafael Betancourt, who is going to be 37 in 2011. Four of the last five seasons for Betancourt have been fantastic and last year, he was brilliant. He struck out 10.54 batters per nine innings and only walked 1.16 batters per nine! That's great stuff. He will be better than the departed Huston Street. But the problem is that Street and Betancourt were better than Betancourt and whoever else is behind him. The relievers behind him are the southpaw, Rex Brothers, Mark Belisle, Josh Roenicke and Edgmer Escalona. 

Brothers had an excellent ERA and FIP last season and strikes out a LOT of batters. But he also walks a lot too. Expect a bit of a regression there. Belisle is reliable. Reynolds is effective when he doesn't give up the long ball. Unfortunately, that doesn't happen often enough. Roenicke and Escalona only pitched a handful of games last season and that's scary.

As stated earlier, Baseball Prospectus predicts the Rockies will score 56 more runs than last year. Where will it come from? Marco Scutaro should be a major upgrade on Jonathan Herrera and Mark Ellis at second. Troy Tulowitzki is the best shortstop on the planet and should match his numbers from last year. Casey Blake takes over for Ty Wigginton at third and that seems a wash at best and considering Blake's age might be worse than a wash. And Todd Helton is still over at first. Expect a regression from Helton as he had what seemed like the last bloom of the rose last season.

The outfield is comprised of Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler and the newly acquired Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer should be an offensive upgrade in right and since Seth Smith wasn't great as an outfielder, Cuddyer shouldn't be much worse. Fowler is pretty much what we saw last year and should have no trouble duplicating his numbers. A healthy Carlos Gonzalez would help greatly as CarGo missed thirty games to injury last season.

The Rockies took a step backwards in the catching department. Chris Iannetta had a very good season but is replaced this season by Ramon Hernandez. While Hernandez is a good hitting catcher, the switch could cost the Rockies a win statistically. None of the backup options are appealing and least from this vantage point.

Jason Giambi still brings a potent bat from the bench. Tyler Colvin gets a fresh start and could spell any of the outfielders. He still needs to prove he can hit big league pitching though. Chris Nelson isn't much of a utility guy in the infield and neither is Chris Young in the outfield.

The Rockies are getting some buzz in sites around the Internet. But after spending several hours looking at this team, 82 wins seems about right. There are too many question marks about the rotation and the bullpen. The catching position has been downgraded and the additions of Scutaro and Cuddyer won't be enough to propel this team into contention. A lot is being made of the "make up" of the team and team chemistry and all that. But performance is where the Rockies will win or lose. And there just doesn't seem to be enough wins in this team.

The Scrum in the NL West: Padres

The owner of a southern California baseball team went through a divorce which threw the team into turmoil. Sounds like the Dodgers, right? Well, it's true that happened to the Dodgers. But it also happened to the San Diego Padres. John Moores, the majority owner of the Padres since he purchased the team from Tom Werner, was divorced from his wife in 2008. Those proceedings prompted him to sell the franchise to a group led by Jeff Moorad. The deal meant that Moorad and his group would make incremental payments to Moores until they owned the majority of the team. The transfer of the team has been messy and MLB tabled a vote to confirm the final purchase of the team by the Moorad group. Now Moorad has temporarily withdrawn that purchase request to help get a television deal done with Fox. Though the Padres' situation hasn't been in the news as much as the Dodgers and Mets' situation, this turmoil has affected the product on the field just as dramatically.

Two years ago, the San Diego Padres were the darlings of Major League Baseball. A surprise team from the start, the Padres held the top spot in the National League West until the very last day of the season when the San Francisco Giants killed their dream season and eventually went on to win it all. The Padres won 90 games in 2010. Coming so close to winning the division, did the Padres try to build on their success? If you can call trading their best player to the Red Sox for prospects and a perennial fifth outfielder, not really. The Padres won 71 games in 2011.

After the failed 2011 season, Jed Hoyer, the general manager, left the Padres to join Theo Epstein in Chicago and Josh Byrnes has taken over as the GM. One of the first moves was to trade arguably their best pitcher to the Reds for a top prospect first baseman who will take over for the top prospect first baseman the Padres received from Boston in the Adrian Gonzalez deal. The prospect first baseman the Padres received from Boston, Anthony Rizzo, fizzled in San Diego and was traded to Hoyer and the Cubs for Andrew Cashner. Other players are involved in all these deals and only time will tell their ultimate effectiveness. But the gist of the story is that in two successive off seasons, the Padres traded away their best positional player and their best pitcher. 

Gosh, this is going to be a long post. Feel free to bail if you need to. We still have a preview to get to here. But the preamble was necessary to get to where the team is today. If the Fox deal is approved by Bud Selig, a ton of money will be infused into the franchise and that will help moving forward. But for now, the team is assembled on the cheap.

When the Padres had their fun run in 2010, they scored 655 runs and allowed only 581. The offense wasn't great beyond Adrian Gonzalez and they were in the bottom third of the National League in offensive statistics. But that was prolific compared to the 2011 offense which cratered to 593 runs scored, 62 less runs scored than the season before. The team finished next to last in on-base percentage and dead last in the National League in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. Two of the players the Padres received from the Red Sox, Rizzo and Eric Patterson went on to bat .141 and .180 respectively. Ouch.

Ryan Ludwick led the team in homers and RBIs with 11 and 64. No Padres hit 30 doubles. Cameron Maybin led the team in runs scored with 82. This was a bad, bad offense. The pitching was remarkably similar to 2010. But the offense had to be addressed. Have the Padres done enough? Baseball Prospectus predicts the team will score 631 runs. That isn't as high as 2010 and only 38 more runs than 2011. So the answer has to be no. Since this post is already long, here is a list of the proposed starters for 2012 with some comments after:

• First base: Yonder Alonso
• Second base: Orlando Hudson
• Shortstop: Jason Bartlett
• Third base: Chase Headley
• Left field: Carlos Quentin
• Center Field: Cameron Maybin
• Right Field: Will Venable
• Catcher: Nick Hundley
• Bench: John Baker, Mark Kotsay, Jesus Guzman, Andy Parrino and Chris Denorfia.

Raise your hand if you've never heard of two of the last three bench players (raising hand). Alonso was the big chip in the Mat Latos trade with the Reds. The Padres are convinced he will succeed where Rizzo failed. Some writers after the deal thought Rizzo had more upside than Alonso, but time will tell. Alonso made a major splash with the Reds after his call up last season. He should strike out less than Rizzo. Most projections put him in the .250/.320/.400 range but that seems pessimistic. Alonso should be an improvement.

Nick Hundley is a solid offensive catcher. He is rated poorly in framing pitches but good at blocking pitches in the dirt. Recent rankings of catchers based on new statistics rated him the fourteenth best catcher in baseball in 2011. So he is slightly above average overall.

Orlando Hudson has slipped defensively as he gets older and neither he nor his partner, Jason Bartlett are very good offensively. Chase Headley is better offensively, but rated worse as a fielder than the rest of his infield mates.

Cameron Maybin was just given a major extension and is top notch in the field in center. Maybin is also great on the base paths once he gets on base. He stole 40 bases last season in 48 attempts and is an excellent base runner in other ways too. The jury is still out on how good an offensive player he is though. Despite all the hoopla, his on-base percentage was only .323 last season and most projections list him ten points lower heading into 2012. 

Will Venable is a fine fielding outfielder who has never hit as well as expected. His Achilles heel is hitting against left-handed pitching. So expect him to platoon somewhat with Denorfia again in 2012.

Carlos Quentin was obtained from the White Sox in a December deal. Quentin will take over from Ludwick in left and should be an upgrade offensively. The key will be how he does at Petco as that is what seemed to defeat Ludwick. Ludwick was probably a better fielder than Quentin. A gut reaction is that this isn't much of an upgrade, but we'll have to see how it works out. 

The pitching rotation lost Mat Latos and Aaron Harang but picked up Edinson Volquez (obtained in the Reds deal). The thought here is that Volquez will have better success in Petco and become a quality pitcher again. It isn't beyond the realm of possibility that he could take up most of the Latos slack. The thought here is that Cory Luebke is primed for a breakout season and should be the next great young pitcher. There are also bullish thoughts about Tim Stauffer who seems far better than his stats have shown thus far. Clayton Richard and Dustin Moseley round out the rotation somewhat adequately. And perhaps Micah Owings can start a few games and hit a homer or two. One can always dream, right?

Huston Street replaces Heath Bell as closer and that seems a wash. Luke Gregerson is very good and Andrew Cashner can be electric. The bullpen has always been a Padres strength and that should be the case again in 2012.

Baseball Prospectus predicts the Padres will win 79 games and finish just ahead of the Dodgers. That seems optimistic after they won only 71 games in 2011. But consider that the Padres run differential in 2011 shows that the Padres had a Pythagorean won-loss projection of 79 wins a year ago, which sort of puts a black eye on Bud Black's managerial genius theory. If Quentin and Alonso hit and some mild surprise happen from the rest of the offense and if Luebke and Stauffer can be as good as is thought here and Volquez has a good season, then all of those things combined could push the Padres over .500. But all those things must happen to keep the Padres from sinking to last season's depths.

There is hope for the future though. The new television deal with infuse the Padres with more cash and Keith Law rates the Padres' farm system as the best in the big leagues. And perhaps someday, the ownership situation will be resolved and stability will come. 

The Scrum in the NL West: Dodgers

The third installment of this week's romp through the National League West brings us to Chavez Ravine and the Los Angeles Dodgers. This installment will not talk about the ownership situation though that continuing story does relate to the product the Dodgers will have on the field. Instead, the post will simply stick to the team the Dodgers will be sending into the scrum that is the NL West. The Dodgers may well finish at the bottom of that imagined rugby pile.

The Dodgers won 82 games last year. That is above .500. That is respectable, no? And Baseball Prospectus predicts the team will win 78 games this coming season. That win total, according to BP, will place them only eight games behind the eventual division leader. Even so, according to BP, that would place the Dodgers in last place. That is how close this division is supposed to play out. The thought seemed reasonable until MLBdepthcharts.com was consulted. And, ugh, the Dodgers depth chart found on that site does not look pretty.

The biggest problem when looking at the Dodgers' depth chart is the offense. BP predicts this offense will be as paltry as the Giants. And as we saw yesterday, that's not a good thing, especially when the Dodgers can't match up with the Giants' pitching staff. Both the offense and the pitching contains one shining star. Clayton Kershaw has developed into an amazing pitcher and Matt Kemp had about as good a season as you can have in baseball last year. Every single projection system consulted for this piece (and there were a lot of them) believe that both stars will not be quite as good in 2012. Let's say they are wrong and pessimistic, and that may well be the truth, these two simply cannot bring the rest of their teammates over the hump.

Last year's Dodger offense accounted for 16 WAR according to Baseball-reference.com and Matt Kemp accounted for 10 of that 16 WAR total. According to that same site, the top three pitchers in WAR were Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda and Ted Lilly. Kuroda and his 3.7 WAR is gone and replaced by pitchers who shouldn't be quite as good. 

Let's look at the offense. Can any projection be optimistic when according to BP, Clayton Kershaw was the fifth most valuable offensive contributor last season? No, not really and guilt is starting to rise that this preview is turning out so negative. Sincere apologies to you Dodger fans. But the facts are facts and fairness needs to call it as close to reality as possible. When 83 year old, Jimmy Carroll, was the third most valuable offensive chip on the table last season, there is a problem.

The infield is, frankly, pathetic. James Loney is a known entity. He probably had his best overall full season as a Dodger last season and despite being a slick defender at first base, does not produce the kind of offense you would like to see from a first baseman. He is never going to be a big power guy and that would be okay if he was as good a hitter as Mark Grace was. But he isn't. He is league average at getting on base. And that simply doesn't cut it. 

Jimmy Carroll was allowed to walk as a free agent and he will take his Methuselah act to the Twins. His replacement is Mark Ellis who is probably an upgrade. Ellis has been an underrated player during his career as he was hidden away as a member of the Athletic for years. He has a little pop in his bat, is an excellent fielder (or used to be at least). But he is going to be 35 in 2012 and his best days may be behind him. 

Here is a bit of trivia for you. With A.J. Ellis behind the plate, he and Mark Ellis make up twenty percent of the total number of guys with the name Ellis that have ever played Major League Baseball. And no two guys with that last name have ever started in the same line up. More on A.J. Ellis in a minute.

Continuing with the infield, shortstop will be manned by Dee Gordon. Gordon had an excellent season at Albuquerque before coming up to the Dodgers to take over once Rafael Furcal was injured and eventually traded to the Cardinals. And Gordon continued his hot hitting for the Dodgers as he batted .303 and added some excitement with 24 steals in just 31 attempts. 

But the good news for Gordon stops there. He was inadequate in the field as all major systems rated him poorly for his defense and he made ten errors in just 56 games. Plus, Gordon almost never takes a walk. He walked just three percent of the time in 2012 and that was just slightly lower than his minor league averages. Gordon swings at forty percent of pitches outside the strike zone and that is not a good thing. Such a rate is nearly double that of someone who is considered to have good plate discipline.

Gordon perhaps will be better in the field, but projection systems consulted have him batting in the .260 range with an on-base percentage under .300. Let's hope that he performs better than that because those numbers are not good.

Third base will be occupied by Juan Uribe. Uribe followed his 2010 World Series heroics and a pretty good season with the Giants to a three year contract with the Dodgers for a pretty decent chunk of change. But he was awful last season. His final OPS+ was 56. His power went away and he batted just .204 with an on-base percentage of .264. Uribe is still slick with the glove and could perhaps bounce back offensively. It would be a great help to the Dodgers if he could at least hit again for league average.

Let's get back to A.J. Ellis. Ellis will be the starting catcher. He takes over for Rod "The Bod" Barajas. Despite the fact that Ellis will be 31 in the 2012 season, this will only be his fifth season in the big leagues, all as a back up. The Dodgers will lose some power production as Ellis does not hit for power while Barajas hit sixteen homers in just 337 at bats. Ellis has much more plate discipline than Barajas which may translate well over a full season. Barajas rated better defensively, however, so all things considered, the Dodgers lose something going forward with Ellis. 

Ellis is backed up by Matt Treanor. The only good thing you can say about Treanor is that his wife is a very good volleyball player. Otherwise, Treanor has never hit and is not considered a great defensive catcher. Catching is definitely a weakness on this team.

The outfield is in better shape than anything else on the field for the Dodgers. Matt Kemp has become one of the best players in baseball and should have another monster season. He had a better defensive season last year but is still rated below average in that category. Andre Ethier is a very good offensive right-fielder which makes up for his very bad defense out there. Ethier has had some difficulties staying healthy and isn't very happy being a Dodger these days. He may or may not stay on the team all season. Time will tell. But at least he is one of the brighter spots in the Dodgers' line up.

The depth chart says that Juan Rivera is the starting left fielder. Rivera is a decent player but he's better as a role player than starting every day. It would be a great surprise if Jerry Sands doesn't land more playing time either in left or eventually at first. Sands had a mostly positive first experience in the big leagues last season. Sands just seems like a better option than Rivera and the prediction here is that he will be in the starting line up come April.

The Dodgers' pitching rotation is well suited for their vast ballpark. Clayton Kershaw is easily one of the top five pitchers in the National League and he is only 24 years old. That is scary good. The thing that is so impressive about Kershaw is that despite his power arm, young age and left-handedness, he has excellent control and only walked 2.1 batters per nine innings last season. He is a rare treat and is one of those talents that you can't wait to see pitch every fifth day.

He is followed by the somewhat enigmatic, Chad Billingsley. Billingsley's strikeout rate has gone down for three straight seasons and last year, he walked more batters than he has before. He is only 27 himself though and should have a better season in 2012 than he did in 2011. At worst, he is a solid rotation guy and at best, he had vastly underrated seasons in 2009 and 2010.

Ted Lilly is a solid, if unspectacular rotation guy who should get his usual 30+ starts. He has good control but despite pitching half his games in LA, gave up quite a few homers last season. Lilly will keep the Dodgers in most games and finish about league average with his statistics. There is value in that, especially since he throws from the left side.

The hole left by the departed Kuroda will be filled with Aaron Harang who goes from one pitchers' park in San Diego to another in Los Angeles. That makes Harang a smart guy. Harang is yet another unspectacular, league average pitcher who should give the Dodgers 30 starts and keep them in the game in most of them. 

The rotation will be rounded out by Chris Capuano who has resurrected his career after years of injury. If he stays healthy, Capuano still provides solid strikeout rates and his tendency to give up homers should be somewhat mitigated by pitching at Dodger Stadium. He is liked here much more than by most in the baseball analytic society. He should have a solid season if he stays healthy.

The starting rotation as a whole seems solid. Kershaw is spectacular at the top followed by dependable league average types all the way through the rest.

The Dodgers' bullpen is a bit troublesome. Broxton is now gone and the closer is the little known Javy Guerra. Guerra isn't the blow-you-away type of closer but was reasonably successful in his time closing in 2011. He should be solid if not spectacular. He is backed up by the electric arm of Kenley Jansen. Jansen struck out 96 batters in just 53.2 innings of work. There is no way that Mike MacDougal can match his 2.06 ERA last season. No chance. Expect him to revert back to his usual messiness in 2012. Matt Guerrier is solid. Scott Elbert was solid as the designated lefty. But Blake Hawksworth might miss the start of the season with an injury.

The bullpen is rounded out by the usually reliable Todd Coffey and Ramon Troncoso, who was a train wreck last season. Overall, this bullpen walks way too many batters and has only one member that can blow people away. Bullpens are tricky anyway, but this one seems dicey at best.

The Dodgers have a decent bench with either Rivera or Sands, the ever-present Jerry Hairston, Adam Kennedy and Tony Gwynn, Jr.

After spending far too many hours looking at this team, the 2012 Los Angeles Dodgers will do well to win 75 games. The final analysis would love to be more optimistic, especially with Don Mattingly at the helm, but the reality is simply too overwhelming. This isn't a good ball club and will need an infusion of new ownership to bring it back to life. They have two superstars, but far too many mediocre spots around the rest of the roster to think otherwise about its prospects this coming season.