Over Under On How Many Yankee Regulars Rest In Twin Bill

I obviously wrote this before finding out about Kendrys Morales. And no, I am not thrilled with the deal at all. If he costs Clint Frazier a single at bat, I will be upset. And after the double-header, which player will be sent down to get back to 25? Argh!

That title is way too long! I could not think of a shorter one. Anyway, The New York Yankees have had the first two games of a cushy home series against the Orioles rained out. That is unfortunate as it would have been nice to have the easier opponent for a few games. Now they will have to play two double-headers to make up the losses. One will be on Wednesday. My question here is, despite not playing the last two days and having an off day on Thursday, how many Yankee regulars will have at least one game off during the double-header? My number is three with a lean toward over.

At this point, the "regulars" are: Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Cameron Maybin, Clint Frazier and Gary Sanchez. I can predict easily that Sanchez will sit one of the games as catchers never play both halves. Gleyber Torres seems to have a barking elbow, so he will sit at least one game. And Aaron Hicks is just coming back from the DL, so "caution" will dictate him sitting at least one of the games. Who is my fourth? Let's make it Brett Gardner who often sits one game of a double-header. That will mean that Hicks will play one game in center and Gardner the other.

I can somewhat understand Sanchez and Gleyber. Both are dinged a little and I get the catcher thing. That would be the only two *I* would rest. If Hicks is not healthy enough to be back and play two games, then he shouldn't be back.

But, do not be surprised if the Yankees, in their infinite wisdom and hell-fire desire to rest people, rest more than four. If so, I will be furious and it will not be the first time this season, nor will it be the last.

Let's talk about this rest thing for a minute. I did some work at baseball-reference.com to find out the adverse affects playing almost every game has on players. Obviously, I am not a numbers guru and there are flaws in my thinking. For example, I concentrate on OPS because figuring out first half and second half WAR would be beyond me. I still do not believe in the fielding statistics and no one has convinced me that they are not seriously flawed....still. So, I went by OPS. And you can follow along with my thought process with my spreadsheet on Google Sheets here (click on the word, "here").

What I found first that was interesting to me was that from 1940 to 2018, the average number of players that played nearly every game has remained around ten players per year. There are big swings and variations from year to year, but that average has held true for 70 years. But in the last five seasons, the average number of players playing at least 160 games has dropped to 7.8 players a year. So this idea of resting players is taking a hold on teams and began about five seasons ago.

There were 90 players who played 160 games or more in a season since 2010. Of those players, 51 of them or 57% had a worse second half than their first half. The same 90 produced 45 or exactly half as many worse Septembers than their season's OPS. Ten of them, or 10% played less than 100 games the following season. The latter statistic seems incidental and more of the fluke injury kind of thing.

There were several repeat players on the list. Hunter Pence did it twice and once way under-performed in the second half of the season and in the September and once way over-performed both. The same thing happened with Prince Fielder. Others that did it multiple times (more than two) had a season or two where they were worse in the second half and the last month and a season or two better. So there really was not a rhyme or reason for multiple full-season players.

There were some players who had amazing second halves and last months and some that had abysmal ones. The average season OPS among the 90 seasons was .809. The average OPS for the second half among the 90 was .802. And the last month of the season average was also .802. While there were a lot of variations among the 90, the averages as a whole do not fall off a cliff.

If I did notice one trend, it was that middle infielders seemed to suffer from playing almost every game more than most others. Among the few that really tanked in September (besides the one by Hunter Pence already mentioned) guys like Rougned Odor and Jonathan Schoop had September OPS figures in the .500s. That said, Alcides Escobar finished better in multiple seasons in the second half and the last month. So there isn't a global statement that can be mentioned about infielders.

Perhaps I should have used OPS+ or some of the Fangraphs.com stats to look at the splits. And please note that I am not anywhere close to proving anything. But my list just does not show a smoking gun that playing nearly every game means a player will be far less valuable later on in the season. Call it a conversation starter that others smarter than I can do the math justice.

I am willing to go so far as to say giving a player a day off during a long stretch is probably a good thing. I am not willing to move from my position that a player who is on a good roll should not skip a game during that roll. Nor do I think it necessary to give a player a day off when the schedule already has a day off that week or just recently. If a player is banged up a little and could use a day off combined with a scheduled day off is okay I guess.

I am just not okay with the idea that a game can be put at risk because you want to keep your best players on the bench to rest them. How about if you lose the division by a game? How about if you lose the wildcard by a game? How about if you lose out on home field advantage by a game? No, I will never accept that. I do not know if Aaron Boone makes those decisions or he is given direction by the analytics department. Every game is important and every game should be fully attempted to win. My beef is when this rest analytic stuff puts the Yankees in a poorer position to win the game.

The Yankees This Week

The New York Yankees' past week could not have gone more swimmingly. They took three of four from the fading Seattle Mariners (The Red Sox would demolish that team later in the week) and then went down to their personal house of horrors at Tropicana Field and took two of three from the front runners. Both of those wins came against the Bay Rays' stud pitchers, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. Of course, they still haven't found a way to beat the abominable "Opener" whenever the Rays cheapen the game by using that strategy. Sorry, folks, just my opinion...

The best news of all came yesterday when Chad Green was called back from Triple-A and threw bullets and struck out three straight batters. Welcome back to greatness, Mr. Green.

And so the Yankees find themselves just a half a game back in the AL East and the Red Sox are starting to play like the Red Sox and are only three back. Everything is starting to gel just like I predicted it would. The Yanks have returned home to Yankee Stadium and this week will play the Baltimore Orioles and those same Rays for the weekend. The Red Sox will host the Rockies and the Astros this week.

I believe tonight will mark the return of Aaron Hicks. I don't know if that will be a good thing or not. Other teams get players back like the Rays did Austin Meadows and he hits moonshots all over the place. The Yankees get players back like Miguel Andujar and they get one hit in the month of May. I have to say that I was surprised that the Yankees sent Mike Tauchman down to the minors as the corresponding move. It seemed to me that it should have been Andujar who needs to get some playing time and figure things out. Perhaps he should have had that operation after all.

The Yankees also placed Jonathan Loaisiga on the DL for a shoulder strain (uh oh) and have called up Chance Adams, who might start tonight's game. Hmm...

Let's face it, the Yankees need to sweep the Orioles. Teams like the Orioles are going nowhere and the Yankees other AL East competitors have no problem beating the O's regularly. The Yankees need to do so as well. Anything short of a sweep will be disappointing. The Orioles have zero pitching. I mean, none. Baltimore is dead last in the AL in ERA and the Yankees face starters, David Hess, Andrew Cashner and Dan Straily. All three are struggling with perhaps Cashner being the best of the trio.

The Yankees will counter with Adams (perhaps), JA Happ and Domingo German. It would be nice if Adams could pitch well and give some hope that he is a prospect many have hoped he would be, especially after last year's abysmal three game debut. He is only 24. But the clock is ticking. The  thing is, even if Adams blows up, the Yankees should win in a slugfest.

After an off day on Thursday, the Yankees will host the Rays. Glasnow went on the DL right after his Yankee start, so they will not have to worry about him. But they cannot seem to hit Charlie Morton, Blake Snell is elite and, to be sure, there will be an opener in there somewhere.

When the Yankees have the Rays at home, they have to win and winning two of three would be great if they can do that again next weekend. It is a lot to expect from this continuing rag band of players, but they have spoiled us by keeping things interesting (understatement alert). A 6-1 week would be great. Anything less than 5-2 would be disappointing.

Unbelievable Facts About Chris Davis

Chris Davis, the much-maligned, obscenely-paid first-baseman for the Baltimore Orioles established a record for batting futility that may never be reached again. Nobody has ever gone as many at bats in a row without a single base hit as Chris Davis has from the end of the 2018 season to today. The record is his alone and is the benchmark for putrid batting forever. But Davis' failure to hit is not a recent phenomenon. It actually goes back to the last month of the 2017 season. And the numbers are unfathomable.

I cannot grapple with my feelings about Chris Davis. A large part of me feels like I am piling on. Failure is no fun for anyone. At the same time, Davis is rich beyond his wildest dreams and will continue adding to that pile for years to come. I do not know. I guess mostly I feel badly for him.

The real problem for Chris Davis started in the last month of the 2017 season. His numbers were not great for the years 2014, 2016 and most of 2017. His batting average and strikeout rates were terrible. But his OPS+ hovered around league average for those years because of his walk rate and the decent power numbers. But then you get to the last month of 2017.

In that month, Chris Davis came to the plate a hundred times and he had 88 official at bats. He only had 14 hits and struck out 40 times. That works out to a .159 batting average, a .260 OBP and since he only had 29 Total Bases in 26 games, that worked out to a .330 Slugging Percentage. That gave him a .590 OPS for the month. Things have never improved since.

In 2018, Davis had arguably the worst batting season of all time. In 522 Plate Appearances and 470 At Bats, all Davis could muster was 79 hits and 41 walks. His season's batting average was .168. His On Base Percentage was .243 and his Slugging Percentage was a puny .296. His OPS of .539 was good for an OPS+ of 50 (100 is average) and rated a 46 in wRC+.

Let's add together the last month of 2017, all of 2018 and his zero for 28 start (with four walks) for 2019. That gives us a line of: 654 (PA), 586 (AB), 48 Runs, 93 Hits, 15 doubles, 20 homers, 59 RBI, 56 walks, 6 HBP and 247 strikeouts. What does that all add up to?  A .159 Batting Average, a .237 On Base Percentage and a Slugging Percentage of .287. His OPS for all of that would then equal .524. Wowzers! His strikeout rate would be 38%. Consider that his 247 strikeouts far outpaced his combined total of hits and walks by 98!

It gets worse the more you look at it. In 2018, Chris Davis had a .327 OPS in games considered Late and Close. That is lower than many batters' On Base Percentage! His OPS was .399 in what were considered High Leverage situations. He had a .484 OPS facing "Ground Ball Pitchers." His OPS against "Power Pitchers" was .463. His OPS against pitchers with an average fastball was .485. He had a .493 OPS against left-handed pitchers.

These are all bizarre numbers! Here is another one for you: Since 1867, Chris Davis' -2.8 rWAR was tied for the eighth worst baseball-reference.com WAR season total ever. Fangraphs.com came in with a -3.1 fWAR which would have ranked Davis' 2018 as the fourth worst all time. Chris Davis' 127 times on base last season was tied for the sixteenth lowest all time for a player with over 500 plate appearances. And it was the worst since Todd Cruz in 1982 playing for the Mariners. And his .168 Batting Average of a year ago is the worst all time for a player with over 500 Plate Appearances.

Those are all numbers for the 2018 season. He has big fat zeroes for 2019. So stretching back to the last month of the 2017 season, no one has batted lower than Chris Davis...ever!

And, I can guarantee you that none of the players worse than Davis in WAR in a single season ever made $23 million for doing so.

What would you do if you were the Baltimore Orioles. The team cannot keep running him out there, can they? The money is a wash. It is bye bye. There is no way they will get any value from the deal. And the deal runs three more years after this one! The Orioles should simply cut their losses. It is totally embarrassing for a team to have a national television cut in to see if Davis would break the futility record. And the networks got their money's worth. Chris Davis needs to be put out of his misery and the fans need to have closure on this legendary saga of batting garbage dumpage.

Live Blogging The Yankees 2019 Opening Day

The best day of the baseball season is here. It is Opening Day and The New York Yankees will host the Baltimore Orioles. Mariano Rivera just threw out the first pitch! What can be better than that!? It is Masahiro Tanaka against an Oriole team that lost 114 games a year ago. But that Orioles team gave the Yankees more fits than should have occurred. The Yankees need to feast on teams like this.

And the first pitch from Tanaka! A ball. But two ground outs followed and then a single to right. It took a while for Tanaka to put away Trey Mancini, but Mancini's ground ball to the right hit the runner! When is the last time you saw that! Good sign? We'll take it.

Tanaka looked crisp and sharp and hit 93 on his fastball. He looks good. The Yankees are coming up!

Brett Gardner led off and got blown away by the Orioles starter, Andrew Cashner. One out. Aaron Judge lined a single (108 mph) through the right side! Yeah! Giancarlo Stanton lined a single to right. It was hit hard, but Aaron Judge still took third. Here we go! A 3-1 count on Luke Voit. Boom! Three-run homer to dead center! Wow! Miguel Andujar flew out to the wall in left for the second out. Gary Sanchez singled to right. Greg Bird struck out to end the inning. A great start!

I saw on Twitter that Robinson Cano homered in his first at bat for the Mets. That's cool.

Tanaka got a 1-2-3 strikeout to start the top of the 2nd. Another 1-2-3 strikeout for the second out. But then Chris Davis comes up. I have no idea why Yankee pitchers always get behind on this guy. The odds of him hitting the ball are so low. Davis went 3-0. Tanaka fought back to 3-2 and then struck him out. Super inning! Tanaka looks great. Or the Orioles look awful. You choose.

Gleyber Torres hit the first pitch he saw for a single. Troy Tulowitzki is up and I am rooting for the guy. Nuts. Tulo grounded into a 6-4-3 double-play.  Brett Gardner went ahead in the count, 3-1, but flew out to center. He is a quick 0-2.  End of two, Yankees, 3-0.

Tanaka started the top of the third with a ground out to short. Tulowitzki made his first play of the season at short. No problem. Tanaka then struck out Richie Martin who is making his MLB debut. Two out. Cedric Mullins bounced one over Tanaka's head, but Gleyber Torres made a nice running play to retire the side in order. It's time for da Judge.

With two strikes, Aaron Judge put the ball in play and hit a slow roller up the middle and got himself another single. Strikeouts are NOT okay. Contact is good! Cashner got ahead of Giancarlo Stanton, but in a great plate appearance, Stanton took a walk. Men on first and second, no outs with Luke Voit up. Voit walked on four pitches to load the bases. Miguel Andujar grounded into a double-play to short. Aaron Judge scored his second run of the season. Gary Sachez flew out to deep left and the Yankees finish with a 4-0 lead after three innings.

The age old argument comes to mind after that half inning. Do you discourage Andujar's natural aggressiveness and ask him to be more patient, or do you leave him alone?

Speaking of Andujar, Tanaka started the top of the fourth with a fly out and a ground out to second. Then a ground ball was hit over the third base bag. Andujar made a nice play on it and a strong throw that would have beat the runner if he had a decent fielding first-baseman. But Bird could not come up with it while stretching and Andujar was given an error and a runner was on second. A single highlighted the play as it plated the run before Tanaka was able to end things with a fly out to center and Brett Gardner.  I never, ever liked Mark Teixeira. But I sure miss his glove at first.

Greg Bird struck out for the second time. Yeah. Nothing has changed there. Gleyber Torres then hit a smash to third that bounced off the third baseman's chest. Torres was thrown out on a nice play. Tulowitzki then flew out to right.  End of four, Yankees, 4-1.

Chris Davis led off for the Orioles and (Surprise!) struck out for the first out. Sucre flew out to Judge in right (sweet! Get it?). Richie Martin flew out and Tanaka was through five with a 1-2-3 inning.

The Yankees started the bottom of the fifty with walks by Gardner and Judge and are, once again, set up. Those walks finished off Andrew Cashner. Cashner used to be a live arm with huge upside. Now he is mundane with no out pitch. Mike Wright came in to face Stanton. But he walked him and the bases are loaded with no out for Luke Voit. Voit was hit by a pitch to pick up his fourth RBI of the game. Miguel Andujar again flew out deep to left and plated Judge. Judge must lead the Majors in runs scored by now. Heh. Gary Sanchez served one to right but Rickard made a great play on the dive for the second out. Greg Bird looked at a strike right down the middle and then struck out looking to end the inning.

The two first basemen in this game are now 0-5 with five strikeouts and a no-play at first to cause an error and an unearned run. Sterling!  But the Yankees lead, 6-1 after five.

With Adam Ottavino warming in the bullpen, the efficient Tanaka did not seem to need any help. He recorded the first out on a comebacker. Tanaka then got rocked for a hit off the wall in right, but Aaron Judge played it perfectly and held it to a single. So impressive! Tanaka then induced a weak grounder to first. Bird made the safe play at first for the second out. His decision to not go for the lead runner cost the Yankees (and Tanaka) a run as the next batter rapped one to center. It appeared that Brett Gardner did not pick it up and it sailed over his head without even an attempt. Tanaka was taken out and on comes Ottavino to make his Yankees' debut in his home town. This should be fun!

And it was! Ottavino showed some great movement. But the batter did not bite out of the strike zone. The count went to 3-2 and then the new Yankee pitcher froze the batter with a 3-2 slider on the outside corner for the punch out. Tanaka's final line: 5.2 6 2 1 0 5 0. Both runs would not have scored with better defense. It was a good start to the season for Tanaka.

Gleyber Torres took a five-pitch walk to start the bottom of the sixth. Tulowitzki, who reminds me in looks of Fred Stanley, struck out on a foul tip. Brett Gardner flew out to right. Aaron Judge ended his perfect season by striking out.  End of six, Yankees, 6-2.

Ottavino had no problem in the top of the seventh as he struck out two of the three he faced. This guy is going to be fun to watch!

Giancarlo Stanton flew out to center for the first out in the bottom of the seventh. Luke Voit walked to remain perfect for the season. Andujar lined a single to center. Gary Sanchez had a thirteen pitch at bat but finally succumbed to a popup straight up the chute. But the catcher dropped the ball which resulted in a weird double-play to end the inning. Weirdness.  Yankees, 6-2 through seven.

Clarification: The popup was ruled an infield fly rule. But the runners did not stay put and thus were dead ducks.

Zack (notice the "K") Britton is on for the Yankees. A weak popup to center was the first out. Britton then walked Cedric Mullin. Drew Jackson pinch hit for his MLB debut for the Orioles. Jackson grounded to third and Andujar got the force at second for the force out. Kevin Villar singled on the ground through the hole at short. Gleyber Torres saved the day, though, with a brilliant play at second and threw out the batter from his butt. Nice!

Greg Bird was down 0-2 but hit a homer on a sweet swing to right-center. Gleyber Torres struck out on a 3-2 pitch. Tulowitzki drilled a double to left for a double and looked very emotional at second. It was a touching moment. Gardner grounded off the pitcher on a close play at first. Aaron Judge walked on four pitches. But Stanton ended the inning by striking out. End of eight, Yankees, 7-2.

Aroldis Chapman entered the game to finish things up for the Yankees in a non-save situation. He was greeted by Hanser Alberto who beat out an infield single. Chapman then struck out Joey Rickart on a well-located slider. Chapman is only throwing 94 mph. Renato Nunez flew out to center and the Yankees were an out away. A grounder to Torres finished it off and the Yankees had an Opening Day win.

Tanaka and the Yankees start the season, 1-0. Luke Voit starts the season with four ribbies and Aaron Judge scored three runs. A fun first game and the kind of game the Yankees need to play against competition against teams like the Orioles.

The Orioles are leaking

General Managers are only as good as their team's performance in the past season. Dan Duquette was genius last season as the Orioles surprised everyone with blowing out the AL East and making it to the American League Championship Series. Duquette brought in pieces that worked perfectly such as Nelson Cruz and Andrew Miller. But so far this off season seems to show a general leaking of talent as Cruz, Miller and now Nick Markakis have been allowed to sign in greener pastures. Will the Orioles be one and done?

Such a pronouncement in December with almost five months of the off season yet to come would be misguided. But the Orioles have allowed at least six wins of offense and two wins of relief pitching to head out the door. In the long run, these decisions may be wise as the total expense of those players long term might be painful. But in the short term, Orioles fans might be getting a little antsy.

The Red Sox and Blue Jays have improved themselves greatly thus far--at least on paper. The Yankees have been spinning in place and the Rays seem in disarray (but with a still promising rotation). If you compare teams in the AL East, you have to look at the Orioles as an 89-win team after losing that talent. Can they make it up in other ways? Perhaps.

The team still has a strong core in Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy, Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Matt Wieters. There are questions marks among that group. Can Davis bounce back off a disappointing season and stay clean? How will Wieters respond after missing so much time with a rebuilt elbow? Can Machado's knees hold up or is this a chronic season to season thing? But let's, for now, assume that those folks will all contribute ably.

The starting staff will return all the same pitchers back into the mix even though Bud Norris has had his name rumored in trades all winter. They are not a great rotation, but with good defense, they get the job done. The loss of Miller will hurt, but the bullpen was pretty good before he even got there and that same cast is back for another season.

With that much stability (barring injuries), how can the production and play of Markakis and Cruz be made up?

Markakis is probably the easiest to replace. No knock on the guy as he has been a very good player for the Orioles. But his offense has only been about seven percent better than league average and that is not as hard to replace as you think. The most obvious answer seems to be Dariel Alvarez, the Cuban refugee the O's signed in 2013. He has raked pretty consistently in the minors and while he is not that patient a hitter, he does hit enough to replace Markakis if his minor league play is an indication.

The only other minor league options such as Mike Yastrzemski and Josh Hart are still a year or two away.

Harder to replace is Nelson Cruz. While Cruz never saw a pitch he didn't like to swing at, his power is a high commodity in today's market. How do the Orioles close that gap? To me, expecting Steve Pearce to repeat his season last year also seems to be dicey. So that is a lot of power to replace.

Let's say that Wieters comes back as good as he was. That is a plus total of 17 homers over the five he hit last year before he was hurt. If Chris Davis can be somewhere between his monster 2013 and disappointing 2014, he could hit 35 homers and add seven more to the total. Platooning Davis with Christian Walker might produce the same results with a better overall batting average.

I'm not sure Jonathan Schoop will ever develop into an effective MLB hitter. His thirteen walks for all of 2014 are a red flag to me as it led to a .244 OBP. But he could add another six homers to his total of 14 last season. And add to that a bounce-back power year for J.J. Hardy who was way below his career yearly homer output last season could make up some more.

If all of that goes well, which, of course, is a big if, the Orioles could make up the power lost by Nelson Cruz. Whether they can overcome the lack of Cruz's presence in the lineup is a very big question.

Like I said, there is a lot of off season left to go and I'm sure Dan Duquette is not going to stand pat. Adding Melky Cabrera or someone of that caliber might still be a possibility.

But even if Duquette stands pat, as I have outlined, the Orioles might be okay as is. The core is still there. For the most part, a team built on defense and a winning attitude instilled by Buck Showalter could keep the Orioles in the mix. Only time will tell if this General Manager will go from hero to bum or whether he was shrewd to let those players walk when he did. I wouldn't count the Orioles out.

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: October 15, 2014

I obviously have no clue this post season. The Royals have me dumbstruck. And it just goes to show you how much of a crap shoot the playoffs are. It just takes a team getting hot at the right time and riding a wave of invincible feelings all the way through. My friend, JD Mathewson has written a series of posts giving day to day odds based on results. And it's great stuff and highly entertaining and useful. The problem is that with a short series, you can throw computer models in the hamper. A hot team is going to do what they are going to do.

So, yeah, the Royals have me dumbstruck. I just finished watching the Orioles bludgeon their way through the American League all season. Nobody could beat them. They won 96 games and were 47-30 against the American League East. But they look like the Royals' chew toy.

At the same time, I am 1-2 picking the NLCS. Wasn't there some point in the season where the SF bullpen was a mess? How does that suddenly fix itself and become this tower of strength? The Giants cannot hit themselves out of a powder egg and have yet won two of three. It's weird. This post season is weird.

Two more games today. Two more attempts to look somewhat less than totally incompetent. The picks:

• The Royals over the Orioles: Okay, I capitulate. I cannot fight the Royal tide. Finish them off, Royals. Confound me further. There is something fundamentally wrong for me when a wild card team gets to the World Series. It doesn't sit right. But all my silly ideas aside, the Royals are going to the World Series. Jason Vargas over Miguel Gonzalez.

• The Giants over the Cardinals: I just don't like the Cardinals without Yadier Molina. And I hate saying that out loud because the catcher is one of my least favorite players in baseball. The Cardinals' decision to use A.J. Pierzynski was a joke and a poor one. The guy is well past his prime and still as much of a putz as always. Pitchers lose the most in these situations. Who would you rather have your young pitchers pitch to: Molina or AJP? Exactly. The bottom line here is that Shelby Miller has never won a post season game at 24 years of age and Ryan Vogelsong, aged 37, has never lost one. Saying all that, AJP will probably hit a grand slam or something.

Yesterday: 0-2, Post season: 8-14, Season: 1373-1104

MLB Game Picks - Monday: October 13, 2014

Happy Columbus Day to all of you fortunate enough to get the federal holiday off. It would have been nice during the holiday to have a day game to watch in the playoffs. But, heavens, that would be sacrilege.  And so we will wait all the way to eight o'clock tonight to watch the Orioles and Royals resume their series, this time in Kansas City.

The Cardinals evened their series against the Giants with a Kolten Wong walk off laser. It was the fourth homer the Cards hit in the game. Isn't it weird how these teams like the Cards and Royals who hardly hit any homers in the season have hit so many in the post season? Anyway, the homer is the problem you face with Jake Peavy pitching and I kind of called that one yesterday.

The Orioles, of course, are in trouble now having to play in Kansas City down two games to none. They have effectively squandered their home field advantage and the Royals just have to win two of five to head to the World Series. So can the Orioles fight back? Or will they melt away in four? Let's take a look.

The pick:

• The Orioles over the Royals: The pitching line here seems to favor the Orioles. Wei-Yin Chen, if he is on, is very effective and his winning percentage this year showed how good he can be. Jeremy Guthrie is a smoke and mirrors guy who relies on a good BABIP to win. That means that Guthrie will either be head-scratchingly good or pound-into-submission bad. Even if it is somewhere in between, I think the Orioles win it. You can be sure that the Royals fans will be going crazy some it would be helpful to the Orioles to score early (and often). Let me put it this way: If the Orioles cannot beat Guthrie, then they will be playing golf really soon.

Yesterday: 1-0, Post Season: 8-12, Season: 1373-1102

MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 10, 2014

Good job, Bud Selig and you all-powerful television entities, baseball is finally back after four days. Such a hiatus should help ratings giving casual fans just about anything else to wrap their minds around with the attention spans of a four-month-old puppy. You see, if Major League Baseball wasn't a slave to the television contracts, the Championship Series could have been started a day or two after the Division Series ended. But we can't have that and mess up those TV time blocks now could we?

I suppose I should get to the game at hand. Yes, game, singular. We can't even start with two games. We have to space them out for maximum ratings. But all cynicism aside, this is going to be a fun ALCS with two teams we haven't seen come this far in a long while. I even had a dream about this one. Yes, I had a dream...

The pick:

• The Orioles over the Royals: I dreamed I was high on a mountain-top, naked to the world...wait...that's the wrong dream. I dreamed the Royals built a fairly sizable lead early off of Chris Tillman and all my Royals Twitter buds were whooping but were silenced in the end by a big Orioles comeback who catch up to James Shields in the sixth inning and take over the game. There were orange towels being waved all over Camden Yards and I wished I could give @grogg a hug. Hey, that's what I saw. So that's what I'm picking.

Last time we met: 1-1, Post Season: 6-10, Season: 1371-1100

I interviewed the terrific Rudy May

I recently interviewed former pitcher, Rudy May, and posted the results over at It's About the Money, Stupid. He was a delightful man to talk to and I hope you'll enjoy the interview.

The disappointing season of Chris Davis

Nobody expected Chris Davis to be able to match what he did last year when he hit over fifty homers and was worth 54 runs on offense. He was on my regression list to start the season and pretty much everyone else's. But I at least thought he would be better than what he has shown thus far. After 55 games, his offense has only been worth 2.4 runs on offense and his slugging percentage has fallen almost 200 points.

Maybe it is the Brady Anderson disease. Remember Brady Anderson? He's the Oriole player that hit 50 homers in 1996 in one of the all-outlier seasons and hit 18 the following season. But at least Anderson still batted .288 the next season with a .393 on-base percentage. Davis, after batting .286 last year with a .370 on-base percentage a year ago, is only batting .228 with a .338 on-base percentage.

One thing I notice from his spray charts is that he is not hitting the ball with authority to the opposite field. The first spray chart (courtesy of Fangraphs.com) shows what he did last year and notice all the black home run balls to the opposite field:

Now look at this year's:

He has only hit one homer to the opposite field. He is hitting more line drives the other way, but his natural pull tendency has gotten even stronger. This allows the defense to really bunch him up and his BABIP is off 50 points from last year despite a five point increase in his line drive percentage.

His batted ball tendency is heightened because of his strikeout rate, which is always going to be high. He is striking out at the same pace as last year (just under 30%) even though his plate discipline is better (walk rate is up from a year ago). His swing and miss rate is higher than last year.

What is somewhat disturbing is that this trend really started in the second half of last year. Davis did most of his damage in the first half when he hit 37 of his homers. If you put his second half of last year with the first half of this year together, it adds up to a triple slash line of .237/.339/.482.

While the result is still better than average and good for a 117 wRC+, it certainly isn't the 167 wRC+ that he attained last year.

Chris Davis still has one of the sweetest strokes in baseball and he can hit the ball out of any ballpark. But last year and particularly the first part of last year seem more and more like anomalous to who he is. We all thought he would regress, but not to this extent. Let's hope he can flip the switch in the second half and be the kind of player the Orioles hoped he was building up to be.

Rival Roundup - The Yankees against the AL East

I just concluded a four-part series over at It's About the Money, Stupid that compared the current Yankees to their four rivals in the American League East.

The first part covered the Baltimore Orioles. Questions answered were:

• What does the Orioles' rotation look like?
• Will Chris Davis regress?
• How will Manny Machado recover from his injury?

The second part covered the Tampa Bay Rays. Questions considered:

• Is this the year Desmond Jennings breaks out?
• Is the Rays rotation even stronger with Jeremy Hellickson being out with injury?
• How does Joe Girardi compare with Joe Maddon?

The third segment covered the Toronto Blue Jays. Thing to ponder included:

• Is the rotation still a mess and can Brandon Morrow rebound?
• Can Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista and Colby Rasmus stay healthy?
• Is Brett Lawrie ready to be a factor?

The last segment, of course, covered the Boston Red Sox. Observations about:

• Will David Ortiz ever age?
• Is Will Middlebrooks the answer at third?
• How old is Koji Uehara?

It was a fun series, and I hope you check out all the four parts of the series.

The Yankees versus the Orioles

I wrote a full length article of how the Yankees match up with the Orioles over at It's About the Money. Both teams seem to be undervalued by projection systems and both will play a lot of games together.
Position by position match-ups and more. Check it out!

What the Orioles have with Nelson Cruz

The Orioles have agreed to a one year deal with Nelson Cruz for $8 million and another half a million in incentives. For a guy who has averaged 1.3 WAR for the past three years, the price is pretty much perfect and the length perfect as well as there is little or no risk. If Cruz passes his physical tomorrow, the Orioles have seemingly made a nice deal--though they do lose a draft pick. But what exactly do they get in Cruz?

At first glance, the Orioles get a guy with a career isolated power of .228, which gives their lineup more pop to go along with Chris Davis and Adam Jones. They also get a guy who has performed well in the post season if the Orioles can perhaps get there. Cruz has averaged 32 home runs per 162 games for his career. Those are positives for a good price.

They also get quite a few question marks. With the constant trouble Cruz has had with his legs over the past four seasons, his fielding stats have tumbled into the netherworld. He can spell Nick Markakis in right against some good left-handed pitchers, but otherwise, the Orioles should only use him as a DH.

The Orioles do have some question marks in left field. MLB Depth Charts has the Orioles with a platoon left field of Nolan Reimold and David Lough. The Orioles should hesitate to put Cruz in left as the position is not his natural position and there is more of a chance to hurt himself--something that has happened with far too much frequency in Cruz's career. If Cruz plays more than 40 games in the field, that would be too many.

Should the Orioles be a bit concerned about the home/road splits of Nelson Cruz? Perhaps. Cruz played his home games in Texas for all but his first cup of coffee for the Brewers in 2005. Texas is a great place to hit. 92 of Cruz's 157 homers were hit there.

In fact, his career home OPS is .912, or 178 points higher than his road OPS of .734. That is a pretty incredible difference. Fortunately, the Orioles play in a fairly friendly home park for batters.

Nelson Cruz has had fun hitting in Fenway Park, and has been fairly successful up in Toronto. But he has not hit well in Yankee Stadium III or at Tropicana Field. With 36 games to be played in those four locations, that is also a good news/bad news thing.

The AL East should take note that Nelson Cruz mashes fastballs and curves and struggles against most other pitches. Cruz is vulnerable to sliders and split fingered pitches. He also hits fly balls to most parts of the field but pulls most of his ground balls.

Nelson Cruz gives the Orioles a power bat, something that is becoming more rare in baseball these days. He should help the offense as long as he is not playing the field a great deal and giving back much of his offensive value. Other than the ouch of losing the draft pick, the length and the cost of the deal are ideal  As long as they hide his glove most of the time, Cruz should help the Orioles.

Nick Markakis: A-wrist-ed development?

Nick Markakis was the one player on the Baltimore Orioles in 2007 and 2008 that teams did not want to face at the plate. After a very good rookie campaign in 2006, Markakis became a star in the next two seasons and compiled 11.6 rWAR during those two seasons (10.6 fWAR). In 2013, this same Nick Markakis became one of the least valuable players in baseball with -0.1 WAR on both major stat sites despite playing 160 games. What happened to Nick Markakis? Was this a case of a-wrist-ed development?

Markakis came within a whisker of that magical .300/.400/.500 slash line when he finished, .306/.406/.491 in 2008. He was the eleventh most valuable player in 2008 with the fourteenth highest wOBA in baseball. His fielding was also rated excellent with Baseball Info Solutions giving him 22 runs above average in right field. Fangraphs gave him eleven runs above average. Either way, Nick Markakis had, by 2008 become one of the best players in baseball. He was 24 years old.

But then he started slipping. It was not real perceptible at first. His wOBA fell to a still healthy .349 in 2009. That same stat improved a bit to .353 in 2010 but fell again to .333 in 2011. His once promising career was heading in the wrong direction as even his fielding slipped precipitously.

The slide could be seen most dramatically in the slugging percentage. Since 2008, when his slugging percentage finished at .491 as stated, these are his successive three seasons: .453, .436, .406. There was clearly something going wrong with Markakis.

We received a bit of a clue when Markakis underwent surgery early in the 2012 season to remove parts of his hamate bone in his right wrist. It can never be good when something is so messed up that they have to remove parts of your body to fix it. That surgery gave a clue that perhaps Markakis was slipping due to an ailing wrist.

But here is the confusing part. Before going on the disabled list on June 1, 2012, Markakis was having a bit of a renaissance. He had hit eight homers by that time and had slugged over .500 in May of that season. After he returned from the surgery on July 13, he was pretty decent over the next several months. He only hit a couple of homers a month, but his wOBA rebounded to .359. His season ISO of .174 was his highest since 2008.

But then CC Sabathia broke his thumb with a pitch on September 8, 2012 and his season was finished.

And then came last year. Despite coming to the plate 700 times in 2013, Markakis only hit ten homers and 24 doubles. Both were less than what he did in 471 plate appearances the year before. His slugging percentage of .356 was the eleventh lowest among all qualified players. His walk percentage was down. His OPS was .685, the seventeenth lowest of all qualified players.

Due to his positional fielding not highly valued in right field and with diminishing results as a fielder to go along with that, Markakis hit bottom as a Major League player. His fWAR placed him as the fifth least valuable player of all qualifying players in 2013.

Source: FanGraphs -- Nick Markakis

When Markakis was hitting on all cylinders, the Orioles gave him a six-year, $66 million deal that looked like a great investment at the time. 2014 is the last year on that contract unless some sort of miracle happens and the team wants to take his $17.5 million option, that same contract has become a burden for the tight-cash team in Baltimore. His $15 million salary in 2014 for a player who had a negative value in 2013 is a big problem.

But is there any hope for Markakis to return to some of his former glory? You cannot tell from the projection systems. Steamer has him rebounding only slightly to a .334 wOBA and 1.4 WAR, but that is nowhere near where he was. Oliver projections is much more pessimistic and not only thinks Markakis will finish 2014 with a .308 wOBA and 0.7 WAR, but never sees any hope for him in that system's five year projection.

Nick Markakis enters his 30th year season in 2014. While decline is the norm from here on in, that decline has already happened on a grand scale. But he is still young enough to turn it around. But can he or will he? The numbers do not make it seem likely. He hits more ground balls than at any time in his career, his home run to fly ball ratio has taken a dive and only his line drive rates give any kind of hope. Has this once fearsome hitter turned into a slap hitter?

The Orioles have not made a splash this off-season except in a negative light with the Balfour fiasco. Once again, they seem to be playing things close to the vest (cliche alert!). For the Orioles to have any kind of chance in the AL East, they will need Nick Markakis to return to some of his former glory, especially for the $15 million they will be paying him. Whether Markakis has that kind of player left in him remains to be seen. All the numbers show us is a sharp and sad decline from what was once a promising career.

And ode to Paul Blair

Did you know that Paul Blair, the great center fielder for the Baltimore Orioles, played in the infield for the Yankees in 1978? Did you also know that he played a pivotal part in two post season wins for the Yankees? Read all about it here: http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2013/12/28/paul-blair-yankee-infielder-and-post-season-hero/

Should Manny Machado ever be a shortstop?

Few of us who witnessed or saw on replay the Manny Machado injury in the latter part of 2013 will ever forget it. Legs simply are not supposed to go in the direction that ended his season as his was on the ground behind first base. It was gruesome. I thought of that scene recently when I heard some analyst state recently (I cannot remember who or where) that Manny Machado will some day be the Orioles' shortstop. Is that still a realistic possibility?

I went to do some reading on his injury and the surgery required to fix it. I think this article is pretty much the definitive reading resource. And after reading the piece, I did not come away with all kinds of warm fuzzies that Machado was going to be totally fine after his rehabilitation. The feeling I received was that Machado has an anatomical predisposition to having further kneecap problems. According to the article, this is Machado's second event and this time it took out the tendons with it.

It looks like he is in for a major rehab process and it sounds to me like mid-April is a somewhat safe guess on when he will be back. You do not have to worry about this year because J.J. Hardy is signed through 2014 and will be a free agent in 2015. But what then? Do you really want to take this young talent, this former third overall pick in the draft and put him at further risk making pivots at second base with runners barreling into him all season long? Would not third base be a safer way to keep him as healthy as possible?

2014 will also tell a lot about Machado's flexibility and maneuverability after he comes back to play. If he has the sure signs of losing some range of motion and loss of speed, then the decision might be made for the team. If that is the case, then the Orioles might want to think about extending Hardy or look for other options such as Adrian Marin, another kid from Miami like Machado who could make a similar early leap into the Majors.

But let's look at this another way. What if Manny Machado comes back from his rehab perfectly fine and looks to be the same player he was before the injury? Why would you move him from third? According to both Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com, Machado just completed the second best fielding season ever for a third baseman. If you look at B-R's leaderboard for zone runs for a season, there his 2013 season sits sandwiched between Brooks Robinson's 1968 (the best ever) and the Hall of Fame player's 1967 season.

In other words, nobody has played third base that well in 46 years! Why would you then move him? Because a shortstop is hypothetically more valuable to a team than a third baseman? I get the notion. And perhaps the lead guitarist in a band is the most valuable band member and perhaps Paul McCartney could have been that guy. Instead, McCartney became one of the best bass players in history. Maybe that analogy is a stretch, but it sort of makes my point here.

Whether the guy is playing short or third, if we already know that he can play third better than anyone else since Brooks Robinsion, it seems that you have found something you shouldn't mess with.

Ideally, you would like your third baseman to have some pop in the lineup. At least that is the prevalent theory. And I am not quite yet sold on Machado offensively. Machado has lost any sense of patience at the plate he displayed in the minors and his second half of 2013 was abysmal. He batted under .200 in two of his last three months with an OPS under .600 in those months.

But if you add up his season in total, his 51 doubles and 12 homers could turn someday soon into 31 doubles and 32 homers and then you have your ideal. Even so, most teams in baseball would have taken the offensive output that Machado put out in 2013 for their third basemen...like the Yankees for example.

The Orioles and perhaps many baseball analysts still might look at Manny Machado as the Orioles' future shortstop. Such a notion seems too big a risk to him physically long term and illogical considering how valuable a third baseman he has become. Machado might some day play short for the Orioles, but that won't mean it will be the right call.

Simmons and Machado having historic fielding seasons

Andrelton Simmons of the Atlanta Braves and Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles are both in their second seasons and first full seasons. Simmons is 23 and Machado is 21. And both are already the best fielders at their positions in baseball. In fact, the seasons they are having in the field are downright historic.

We all know that fielding statistics are not yet perfect. As such, it is really impossible to definitively state where the fielding seasons Machado and Simmons are having fit into the all time lexicon at their positions. But these statistics are all we have at the moment and if what we have is anywhere close to being accurate, then these two young players are sizzling at what they do.

And their seasons pass the eye test too. Watching them play is a treat day in and day out and they make the difficult seem routine and the impossible happen on a weekly basis. But flashy is one thing. To remain consistently awesome in the field is another and both have done that.

In recent years, the defensive runs saved has become just as big of the winning equation as pitching and hitting. Winning games is about scoring more runs than your opponent. In order to do so, the team has to hit to score runs and it has to pitch to prevent them plus field the ball well to prevent runs on balls in play. As such it is the runs prevented that is the focus on looking at Simmons and Machado.

And that is where the history comes in. Again, knowing the statistic is not perfect, Baseball-reference.com lists the greatest seasons in a statistic they call Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average. I know that is a mouthful. But bear with me. Andrelton Simmons is currently listed at 25 Total Zone Runs according to that statistic. Without playing another game, Simmons' season already ranks tied for twelfth all-time according to Baseball-reference.com.

Those ahead of him include four seasons for Mark Belanger, two by Ron Hanson, and one each by Rey Sanchez, Rey Ordonez, Ozzie Smith, Ozzie Guillen and Adam Everett. Everett's 2006 season at 40 runs saved above average is the all-time leader.

Simmons has played 114 of the Braves 119 games. The same site projects Simmons to finish at 30 Total Zone Runs for the season. That seems modest and would mean Simmons' season would rank fifth all time. Fifth! But if you divide Simmons 25 Total Zone Runs by his 114 games and then multiplied that by the perhaps 40 games he has left, he could conceivably reach 33 Total Zone Runs and that would rank his season third all time and tied with Rey Ordonez's season in 1999.

That is pretty amazing. Simmons also has a chance to reach 500 assists this season. Now if only his bat would come alive, it would match the great defensive season Simmons is having. Just for comparison, Fangraphs.com has him at 20.6 runs above average. No other shortstop in the game has more than 9.2. Amazing.

Then there is Machado. If Machado's season were to end right now, his 24 Total Zone Runs Above Average would place his season as tied for the fifteenth best season ever. Brooks Robinson's 33 is the top number ever. Names in front of Machado read like the Who's Who among the great third basemen of history: Graig Nettles, Buddy Bell, Adrian Beltre, Robin Ventura, Clete Boyer, Aurelio Rodriguez and Scott Rolen. That is some heady company.

B-R projects that Machado will finish at 28 Total Zone Runs which would tie him at eighth all time. Again, that seems conservative. Again, if you do the math of 24 divided by his 118 games played and then multiply that result times the 43 games he has left (he plays every day), then Brooks Robinson at the top two spots is within reach. Remarkable.

Fangraphs also has Machado on top for third basemen this season at a more conservative 21.3. The spread between he and the second and third place peers is not as dramatic as Simmons'. Nolan Arenado is listed at 16.3 and Evan Longoria at 13.8.

Fielding statistics are not as highly regarded for accurately as what we have for batters and pitchers. But based on what we see and what we do have for statistics, Manny Machado and Adrelton Simmons are having historic fielding seasons and a big reason for their respective team success.

2013 projections for Manny Machado are too conservative

The leap is way too large to consider that the Baltimore Orioles went 33-18 once Manny Machado made the leap to the Major Leagues at the age of twenty last season. One player doesn't a .647 winning percentage down that stretch make. But it makes for a nice theory. After all, the third base position went from the worst fielding position in the majors to a savings of four and a half to seven runs (depending on the site) over the last 51 games.

I don't really know what the Fans Scouting Report is on Facebook player pages. But I do know that  I love what I see there. I normally see ratings in the 60s for most players in at least a few of the categories rated there. But not for Manny Machado. His scores showed a 73 for instincts, a 72 for first step, a 62 for speed (okay, he's not fast), a 73 for hands, a 78 for the quickness of his release, an 86 for arm strength and a 72 for accuracy. Sure, Adrian Beltre beats him in all those categories (except the speed thing). But we're talking a really good third baseman here.

And yet the projections all give him anywhere for his defense from 2.3 to 7 runs above average for his fielding in 2013. Will he really flatten out that much over the course of a full season? I really don't think so. I think what you are going to see is ten runs above average making the combination of he and Hardy one of the best left sides of an infield in baseball.

The projections for his offense are even more conservative. For example, Machado finished with a .183 ISO for his 51 games in 2012. And this was for a kid that went from Double-A to the majors at a young age. The highest ISO projection has him at .173. Most have him in the .150s to .160s. I don't see it. His home run to fly ball percentage was 11.7 percent and that is a pretty healthy rate. Combine that with an unusually low line drive percentage south of 14% in 2012 and it would seem that his line drive percentage will go up leading to more doubles and triples and if his home run production stays the same, that should organically mean an ISO of at least what he did last season. I believe it will be higher.

Machado did not exactly set the world on fire with his offense in his 51 games. His triple slash line was .262/.294/.445. Yeah, that's not setting cannons off or anything. But he was twenty years old! His OPS was .739. The projections for his 2013 set his range from .698 to a high of .752. I can't see it. For one thing, his walk percentage of only 4.2% in those 51 games is deceiving compared to his plate discipline numbers. For a young kid, he only swung at 29% of pitches out of the strike zone. And his walk percentage was always at least double that in all of his minor league stops.

I understand that projection systems are by nature conservative and based on numbers plugged into the computer and what the expectation of outcomes spit out based on all factors. And I am not saying that they are all wrong because my eyes tell me that the guy just looks like a great ballplayer.  I just think Manny Machado is going to continue to grow as a major league player. He has a great manager for bringing his talent along. My prediction (I'm not smart enough to project) is that he will improve on his 2012 start to his career and will be a five WAR player in 2013. Those who project for a living go from 1.2 WARP (BP) to a high of 3.7. I think he will top that easily. 

The somewhat maddening game of J.J. Hardy

One name that keeps popping up in rumors this week is J.J. Hardy. The Orioles shortstop has been mentioned as desired by the Tigers in a three-team deal that would supposedly send Porcello to the Cubs. According to MLB Rumors, that essential off-season site for us baseball groupies, Buck Showalter has said that the Orioles would have to be unbelievably overwhelmed in order to trade Hardy. And on face value, Showalter is smart to say that. Hardy was terrific at short last season. But his offense has become baffling and bit into his value in 2012. Hardy is difficult to digest in one sitting. But it is a Sunday and a day off, so let's tackle it anyway.

The facts are that we can make a case that J.J. Hardy has been the best fielding shortstop since 2005. Of all qualifying shortstops during that time, Hardy has the highest UZR, the third highest fielding percentage and the sixth highest number of assists with 2,000 innings less than, say Rollins ahead of him. He was easily the best shortstop in baseball in 2012. Brendan Ryan might have been better if he played enough to qualify. Hardy led the majors in chances, fielding percentage, assists and total zone runs saved over average. That's like the Triple Crown for fielders, isn't it?

Here is a stat for you: Hardy's 529 assists in 2012 was the 78th highest in major league history. That's pretty impressive. His fielding percentage was the tenth highest ever recorded in a season for a shortstop. That is impressive too. It is easy to see why the Orioles' took off in the second half after Machado joined Hardy on the left side of the infield. Good fielding is invaluable and really reiterates what a dumb move it was by the Brewers and then the Twins to get rid of Hardy when they had him.

After saying all that, we can then pat Buck Showalter on the back and say, "yeah, Buddy, good call." Except J.J. Hardy's fielding was only one facet of his game. There is also batting and running the bases. And Hardy wasn't good in either case and as such, was only the eleventh highest ranked shortstop overall last season in value. Heck, even Hanley was ahead of him.

But Hardy is a good offensive player, isn't he? He has hit over 20 homers four times in his career. The answer is that Hardy has had a couple of effective offensive seasons and a bunch of bad ones. 2012 was not one of the good ones. Fangraphs rates it as -16.4 runs bad. Consider that his on-base percentage was .284 and that his OPS was .671. He batted .238. That doesn't sound like Hardy, does it?

His 2012 futility came after a very good offensive season in 2011 and his WAR shows the difference. His overall game was worth 4.8 fWAR in 2011 but only 2.8 in 2012. Hardy has now had two seasons over an .800 OPS and three seasons under .700. Maddening.

One glaring thing to notice is that his walk percentage has disappeared. Before 2011, he walked in the 7.5 to 9.2 range each season. But that figure sunk to 5.5% in 2011 and went further down to 5.3% of the time in 2012. And he has gone from a somewhat disciplined hitter to one with no discipline at all.

Earlier in Hardy's career, he hardly ever swung at pitches out of the strike zone. The last two seasons, he has done so over 30% of the time. The last two seasons showed him having his highest contact rates on pitches out of the strike zone of his career. That is not a good recipe for good contact. And indeed, he set his career high in grounding into double plays in 2012 with 21. His line drive percentage is low and his pop up rate to the infield is high.

Most players in the majors are somewhat easy to predict. They will have a down season or two, but most of the time, you will see them fall in a range that is somewhat predictable. J.J. Hardy is not one of those offensive players. He is up and down and up and down with wide extremes. That makes Hardy one of the most maddening players in baseball. His fielding has always been top notch and that is the one steady constant of his career. He will save a pitching staff a ton of runs with his glove. But his bat? Well, that will depend on the season.