Varitek's Bad Timing and Bad Advice

Jason Varitek has been the Boston Red Sox captain. He's been an All Star. He's been on two world championship teams. He's received a lot of credit for the team's pitching success over the course of his career. And he's fighting for his life to get a contract this year.

How did he get in this mess? Five things have contributed to his current situation:

1. He had a terrible year at the plate in 2008.
2. His offense and defense have declined for the last five years.
3. He refused salary arbitration meaning teams would have to give up a first round pick to sign him.
4. He became a free agent in a dramatically different year than the previous dozen years.
5. He is a 36 year-old catcher.

How terrible was he at the plate last year? He had 29 more strike outs than he had hits. He batted .220, the lowest number of his career. He had an OPS of .672. He had only 43 RBI in a season where the Red Sox had runners on base all the time.

His refusal to accept salary arbitration was on the advice of agent, Scott Boras. It was the worst advice anyone has ever been given in the history of agent/player dealings. First, he gave up a guaranteed $10 million. Based on his previous salary, even his sub par year and an arbitration loss would have given him that much money. But refusing arbitration, Varitek also closed the door on many teams wanting to sign him. Would you want to sign a 36 year-old catcher who had a terrible year and give up a first round draft pick? At any price? No, and no team has even made an offer.

This year has been dramatically different than past years. All teams have been tighter with their money and very few have made contracts that made one scratch heads as in past years. With the markets down, Madoff's ponzi scheme, season ticket sales off and the overall doom and gloom even the president-elect is talking about, then you aren't going to see a team give up even one year at what Varitek would have made in arbitration, especially if it means giving up a draft pick.

Catchers Varitek's age rarely get better. All those years in the squat position, getting nicked by foul balls and running like a madman towards first on every infield ground ball, take a toll on catchers. Pudge Rodriguez has hit the age speed bump as has Jorge Posada. It is likely that neither will play anything near to their prime. Varitek's OPS has gradually declined in the last five years. His slugging percentage has taken a noticeable dip. In his "salad days," Varitek threw out 27% of base stealers. That figure is down to 22%. Any team has to know that the Varitek they would be getting would not be the same catcher he was in 2002.

Clearly, Varitek must be looking at his agent the same way Fred Wilpon is looking at his financial advisers who invested with Madoff. Both Varitek and Wilpon must be saying, "What have you done to me!?"

Varitek recently met with John Henry, the principle owner of the Red Sox. If he was smart, he would have gone with his hat in his hand and begged for any kind of contract at all. Varitek has listened to terrible advice and hit the market at precisely the wrong time, not only in its present climate, but at this stage of his career. The Red Sox hold all the marbles, and they are the only marbles in play.