Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA) has released its preliminary projections for 2010 and wow, are they interesting in some pretty weird ways. Some examples? The Nationals are projected for 82 wins. Really? The Rays are projected at 96 wins while the Yankees come in at 93. Really? The Yankees come in third place. Really? The Twins are the only AL Central team to win ore than half their games. Wow. The A's win the AL West and the Angels come in last? hmm...
In case you can't get the link, here is each division, projected wins and standings:
Rays (96), Red Sox (95), Yankees (93), Orioles (79), Blue Jays (71).
Twins (82), White Sox (79), Tigers (79), Indians (77), Royals (66).
Oakland (87), Mariners (86), Rangers (85), Angels (76).
Phillies (88), Braves (85), Nationals (82), Mets (77), Marlins (76).
Cardinals (89), Reds (82), Cubs (77), Astros (75), Brewers (75), Pirates (70).
Dodgers (87), Diamondbacks (85), Giants (81), Rockies (80), Padres (74).
There are some things that seem incredible in those projections (besides the Nats winning 82 games). The Fan can't imagine the Marlins finishing under .500. Can't imagine the Astros winning 75 games. 65 seems more like it. According to these, there won't be a 100 loss team nor a 100 win team. The Cardinals should win more than 89 times. The Pirates won't reach 70 wins. In addition, that AL Central always has a surprise in store. One of the pick of Tigers, White Sox or Cleveland will make a move this year nobody expects.
For sure, these projections are early. Rosters aren't even set yet. If Damon goes to the Blue Jays, give them two or three more wins, etc.
For the next post, the Fan will discuss a few of the surprising player projections we are seeing so far. Here's one tease, Dustin Pedroia will have a much higher VORP than Kevin Youkilis and Lackey will have a higher VORP than Beckett. Stay tuned.