Friday, January 29, 2010

First Projections Are Out

Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA) has released its preliminary projections for 2010 and wow, are they interesting in some pretty weird ways. Some examples? The Nationals are projected for 82 wins. Really? The Rays are projected at 96 wins while the Yankees come in at 93. Really? The Yankees come in third place. Really? The Twins are the only AL Central team to win ore than half their games. Wow. The A's win the AL West and the Angels come in last? hmm...

In case you can't get the link, here is each division, projected wins and standings:

AL East

Rays (96), Red Sox (95), Yankees (93), Orioles (79), Blue Jays (71).

AL Central

Twins (82), White Sox (79), Tigers (79), Indians (77), Royals (66).

AL West

Oakland (87), Mariners (86), Rangers (85), Angels (76).

NL East

Phillies (88), Braves (85), Nationals (82), Mets (77), Marlins (76).

NL Central

Cardinals (89), Reds (82), Cubs (77), Astros (75), Brewers (75), Pirates (70).

NL West

Dodgers (87), Diamondbacks (85), Giants (81), Rockies (80), Padres (74).

There are some things that seem incredible in those projections (besides the Nats winning 82 games). The Fan can't imagine the Marlins finishing under .500. Can't imagine the Astros winning 75 games. 65 seems more like it. According to these, there won't be a 100 loss team nor a 100 win team. The Cardinals should win more than 89 times. The Pirates won't reach 70 wins. In addition, that AL Central always has a surprise in store. One of the pick of Tigers, White Sox or Cleveland will make a move this year nobody expects.

For sure, these projections are early. Rosters aren't even set yet. If Damon goes to the Blue Jays, give them two or three more wins, etc.

For the next post, the Fan will discuss a few of the surprising player projections we are seeing so far. Here's one tease, Dustin Pedroia will have a much higher VORP than Kevin Youkilis and Lackey will have a higher VORP than Beckett. Stay tuned.


Josh Borenstein said...

Strange projections. The Rays are a good team, but finishing ahead of the Yankees and the Sox? I don't see it. They've got a filthy rotation from top to botttom, but no true ace.

The AL West will be a tight three-way race all season long. Oakland will not be in that race.

I think the Nats will be better than they were last year, but 75 wins will be as good as it gets for them.

If Huff, DeRosa, Sanchez, and Bumgarner have good seasons I have the Giants winning the NL West.

bobook said...

clicked on the link and saw different projections than your post.