This post is not about baseball. It's about those who cover baseball. Usually the players are the ones making the news, but for one flashy week, the baseball writers are the ones making the news. The biggest shock, of course, was Rob Neyer's sudden departure from ESPN.com to SB Nation, where he is now the national baseball editor (and he still writes). That was such a bomb on the market that for a short while, Rob Neyer was the number one trending story on Twitter. Now that's amazing. But Neyer isn't the only one. The highly popular and much lauded Wezen-ball writer, Larry Granillo, is taking his keyboard over to Baseball Prospectus. In fact, BP made a flurry of additions. Fangraphs, not to be outdone, has added the dynamic Jonah Keri. What does all this mean?
For this observer, it means that some of the power is moving away from the traditional powerhouses in sports media and shifting to upstart sites that have become just as big as those former monoliths. It also means that these upstarts like BP, BR and Fangraphs are gobbling up talent. Such a talent grab has always been the way of American business. New industries arise and a few companies do it better or get luckier and get bigger than everyone else. Soon, there are less and less competitors and those large success stories swallow up the rest. There is one difference though. The Internet.
The new industry in this case is sports blogging. This Internet phenomenon has in many ways supplanted the old style media world and spun them around on their hind corners. Some have gracefully entered the new world and others have been dragged into it kicking and swinging. Former stars for newspapers and big print services are now Internet blogging stars. Some, like Joe Posnanski, have gracefully started in the old world, joined the new one and now have feet planted in both worlds. But while Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-reference and SB Nation continue to grow and expand, they won't be able to stop what the Internet does better than anything else. New writers and new blogs will continue to appear and talent will rise to the top. It wasn't long ago that Big League Stew was just a lowly blogger with big talent and now is in the big time. There will be others.
One thing that has to shake out is the definition of good writing. Currently, those proficient with sabermetrics have a greater edge. The spreadsheet and those able to unscramble the math have carried the day. Numbers don't lie and discoveries in the numbers carry huge weight with readers around the country and rightly so. But after a while, entertaining writing will always be desirable and writing can be entertaining without a spreadsheet. For every Yin there is a Yang and writers who do the math will be rivaled by writers who are simply great at turning a phrase.
There are already too many generalities in this post and the Fan doesn't mean there to be. It isn't like there is this polar shift or something. Probably the most beloved of writers is Joe Posnanski, and though he has trained himself in the fine art of crunching numbers, his popularity is in his prose. No one does it better. In this writer's mind, he inherits Peter Gammons' crown as the king of writers. Let's just hope that he doesn't get sucked into the visual media like Peter Gammons did and thus lose something along the way.
The Rob Neyer story has been the most fascinating. He was such an institution over at ESPN.com. He was there for fifteen years! He really was the bridge between the early guys like Bill James to the new guys like Dave Cameron. What Neyer did best was discover talent. He was sort of like Johnny Carson. If a comic made Carson laugh, he became big. If Rob Neyer thought you had the writing and numbers savvy, he would promote these small bloggers in his links columns and careers were made.
The Fan thinks this move will be good for Neyer. We've already seen some of his best writing in years this past week with his last couple of posts on ESPN.com and his first couple of posts on SB Nation. In this Fan's view, Rob Neyer got a little stale in his last two or three years at ESPN.com. He became less of a writer and more of a commenter on other people's writing (good or bad). Everyone, no matter how good they are, needs a change of pace once in a while. This should be a new breath for Rob Neyer.
It's unfortunate that in the wake he left behind at ESPN.com, that site's readers are not being kind to the writing being performed in Neyer's old house. ESPN.com has had a couple of revolving writers add posts in the Sweet Spot and the comments haven't been kind. And that's unfair. This writer happened to think both pieces were quite good. Look, nobody is going to replace the original. Nobody could replace Johnny Carson. But the shows that followed found their own voice and gained a good following. Give it time. ESPN.com has too much at stake.
After all this is said and done, how does the old Fan feel about all this? It's EXCITING! Yeah, it is. Many of these writers have sat in the basement like this Fan does and cranked away and built followings and created careers. There is certainly room for more. There's no reason to not try and chase the old American Dream. The Internet does provide a level playing field. And this writer is leveling his best shot. And if this is as good as it ever gets, so be it. As long as the experience is enjoyable, the Fan will keep typing. The success stories like Jonah Keri, Dave Cameron, "Duk" and so many others gives hope that if we keep on plugging, good things can happen. Best of luck to all those who found new jobs and new homes this week. Thanks for the inspiration.
Showing posts with label Baseball Prospectus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baseball Prospectus. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 02, 2011
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Chewing on SIERA
Much good work has been done in recent years to quantify the value of baseball players. There has been a lot of discussion just in this space concerning the new stats and what they mean to the game and to the average fan. One major benefit touted by these new statistics is the ability to project a player's performance based on detailed analysis. Baseball Prospectus has developed a strong following for doing just that. Their PECOTA projections are the most respected in the game. As such, the Fan spends a lot of time looking at their data. One article (the site is a subscription site so you can't read it if you aren't a member) based on their projections talks about pitchers who should do better than expected this coming year or worse than expected based on their projections. Their criteria is a new stat they have created called SIERA, which tries to only measure ERA based on issues the pitcher can control. It's very interesting, but one thing seems to nag at the Fan.
The writer uses Randy Wells of the Cubs as an example of a pitcher who should not be as successful this year as he was last year. Here is what the writer says:
Wells and Happ found themselves intertwined for much of the 2009 seasons as NL Rookie of the Year candidates and also in that the controllable numbers indicated both would regress in 2010. Wells barely touches 90 mph with his fastball and he doesn’t miss many bats, but he is
stingy with walks and keeps the ball on the ground. All of that is well and good, but what one would expect from a third or fourth starter, which is what his SIERA indicates.
Again, there is a nagging feeling that the numbers don't tells us everything here. How do you measure a pitcher that is just darn good at getting a batter to hit the ball where the pitcher wants him to hit the ball? Can you measure such a thing?
Some of the big things SIERA looks at is strikeouts per nine innings, walks per innings, strikeouts to walk ratios and home runs allowed. So the argument against Randy Wells continuing to have the kind of success he had last year is that he didn't strike out that many batters and he was "lucky" with a low BABIP. In other words, most of the balls the hitters put in play were turned into outs. BABIP is a favorite stat here in the FanDome. But again, something nags at the Fan when he uses it. The general consensus is that the BABIP (batting average on balls in play) should be around .300. Get over that and the pitcher is unlucky. Get under that and the pitcher is lucky. Mostly it makes sense. But not completely.
Take for example a guy like Jim Kaat. Kaat won 283 games in his career despite striking out only 4.9 batters per nine innings. And Kaat's career BABIP was .283. So was his 283 wins and great success a matter of 25 years of good luck? The Fan guesses that's possible. But perhaps Kaat was really, really good at getting batters to hit the ball where he wanted them to hit it.
The Fan has watched Mariano Rivera pitch for fourteen years now. Yes, the man does strike out guys, but not as much as some closers. Yes, he is stingy with walks. So he is everything a SIERA stat would ask for. But one thing about Rivera that the Fan has consistently noted is his ability to get guys to ground out weakly to the pitcher, the second baseman and the first baseman. So his career BABIP is .266. Is he just lucky when they hit the ball? No, the Fan contends that he is awesome at getting the batter to hit the ball the way Rivera wants them to hit the ball.
Greg Maddux had a career BABIP of .286. Lucky? Hardly. He too was unbelievable in controlling where the batter hit the ball. Luis Tiant won over 200 games. His career BABIP was an amazing .264. Lucky? At this point, the Fan will let you decide. Want more? Okay, here are a few more examples of low strikeout, successful pitchers and their career BABIPs:
Mel Stottlemyer - .264
Jake Peavy - .287
Chien-Ming Wang - .295
Tommy John - .285
Some pitchers won't blow you away with stuff. Some will not blow you away with K/9 or K/BB ratios. But they were just really good at locating their pitches in a way where the batter hit the ball with predictable results. So SIERA and many of the new stats are good things. The Fan likes them. But they don't account for baseball smarts and the ability to duplicate strategy over a long period of time to force batters into hitting the ball in such a way that damage would be negligible.
SIERA may or may not be right about Randy Wells. Time will tell. But in 2009, it simply looked like Randy Wells was just great at getting batters to hit the ball where he wanted them to hit it.
The writer uses Randy Wells of the Cubs as an example of a pitcher who should not be as successful this year as he was last year. Here is what the writer says:
Wells and Happ found themselves intertwined for much of the 2009 seasons as NL Rookie of the Year candidates and also in that the controllable numbers indicated both would regress in 2010. Wells barely touches 90 mph with his fastball and he doesn’t miss many bats, but he is
stingy with walks and keeps the ball on the ground. All of that is well and good, but what one would expect from a third or fourth starter, which is what his SIERA indicates.
Again, there is a nagging feeling that the numbers don't tells us everything here. How do you measure a pitcher that is just darn good at getting a batter to hit the ball where the pitcher wants him to hit the ball? Can you measure such a thing?
Some of the big things SIERA looks at is strikeouts per nine innings, walks per innings, strikeouts to walk ratios and home runs allowed. So the argument against Randy Wells continuing to have the kind of success he had last year is that he didn't strike out that many batters and he was "lucky" with a low BABIP. In other words, most of the balls the hitters put in play were turned into outs. BABIP is a favorite stat here in the FanDome. But again, something nags at the Fan when he uses it. The general consensus is that the BABIP (batting average on balls in play) should be around .300. Get over that and the pitcher is unlucky. Get under that and the pitcher is lucky. Mostly it makes sense. But not completely.
Take for example a guy like Jim Kaat. Kaat won 283 games in his career despite striking out only 4.9 batters per nine innings. And Kaat's career BABIP was .283. So was his 283 wins and great success a matter of 25 years of good luck? The Fan guesses that's possible. But perhaps Kaat was really, really good at getting batters to hit the ball where he wanted them to hit it.
The Fan has watched Mariano Rivera pitch for fourteen years now. Yes, the man does strike out guys, but not as much as some closers. Yes, he is stingy with walks. So he is everything a SIERA stat would ask for. But one thing about Rivera that the Fan has consistently noted is his ability to get guys to ground out weakly to the pitcher, the second baseman and the first baseman. So his career BABIP is .266. Is he just lucky when they hit the ball? No, the Fan contends that he is awesome at getting the batter to hit the ball the way Rivera wants them to hit the ball.
Greg Maddux had a career BABIP of .286. Lucky? Hardly. He too was unbelievable in controlling where the batter hit the ball. Luis Tiant won over 200 games. His career BABIP was an amazing .264. Lucky? At this point, the Fan will let you decide. Want more? Okay, here are a few more examples of low strikeout, successful pitchers and their career BABIPs:
Mel Stottlemyer - .264
Jake Peavy - .287
Chien-Ming Wang - .295
Tommy John - .285
Some pitchers won't blow you away with stuff. Some will not blow you away with K/9 or K/BB ratios. But they were just really good at locating their pitches in a way where the batter hit the ball with predictable results. So SIERA and many of the new stats are good things. The Fan likes them. But they don't account for baseball smarts and the ability to duplicate strategy over a long period of time to force batters into hitting the ball in such a way that damage would be negligible.
SIERA may or may not be right about Randy Wells. Time will tell. But in 2009, it simply looked like Randy Wells was just great at getting batters to hit the ball where he wanted them to hit it.
Friday, January 29, 2010
First Projections Are Out
Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA) has released its preliminary projections for 2010 and wow, are they interesting in some pretty weird ways. Some examples? The Nationals are projected for 82 wins. Really? The Rays are projected at 96 wins while the Yankees come in at 93. Really? The Yankees come in third place. Really? The Twins are the only AL Central team to win ore than half their games. Wow. The A's win the AL West and the Angels come in last? hmm...
In case you can't get the link, here is each division, projected wins and standings:
AL East
Rays (96), Red Sox (95), Yankees (93), Orioles (79), Blue Jays (71).
AL Central
Twins (82), White Sox (79), Tigers (79), Indians (77), Royals (66).
AL West
Oakland (87), Mariners (86), Rangers (85), Angels (76).
NL East
Phillies (88), Braves (85), Nationals (82), Mets (77), Marlins (76).
NL Central
Cardinals (89), Reds (82), Cubs (77), Astros (75), Brewers (75), Pirates (70).
NL West
Dodgers (87), Diamondbacks (85), Giants (81), Rockies (80), Padres (74).
There are some things that seem incredible in those projections (besides the Nats winning 82 games). The Fan can't imagine the Marlins finishing under .500. Can't imagine the Astros winning 75 games. 65 seems more like it. According to these, there won't be a 100 loss team nor a 100 win team. The Cardinals should win more than 89 times. The Pirates won't reach 70 wins. In addition, that AL Central always has a surprise in store. One of the pick of Tigers, White Sox or Cleveland will make a move this year nobody expects.
For sure, these projections are early. Rosters aren't even set yet. If Damon goes to the Blue Jays, give them two or three more wins, etc.
For the next post, the Fan will discuss a few of the surprising player projections we are seeing so far. Here's one tease, Dustin Pedroia will have a much higher VORP than Kevin Youkilis and Lackey will have a higher VORP than Beckett. Stay tuned.
In case you can't get the link, here is each division, projected wins and standings:
AL East
Rays (96), Red Sox (95), Yankees (93), Orioles (79), Blue Jays (71).
AL Central
Twins (82), White Sox (79), Tigers (79), Indians (77), Royals (66).
AL West
Oakland (87), Mariners (86), Rangers (85), Angels (76).
NL East
Phillies (88), Braves (85), Nationals (82), Mets (77), Marlins (76).
NL Central
Cardinals (89), Reds (82), Cubs (77), Astros (75), Brewers (75), Pirates (70).
NL West
Dodgers (87), Diamondbacks (85), Giants (81), Rockies (80), Padres (74).
There are some things that seem incredible in those projections (besides the Nats winning 82 games). The Fan can't imagine the Marlins finishing under .500. Can't imagine the Astros winning 75 games. 65 seems more like it. According to these, there won't be a 100 loss team nor a 100 win team. The Cardinals should win more than 89 times. The Pirates won't reach 70 wins. In addition, that AL Central always has a surprise in store. One of the pick of Tigers, White Sox or Cleveland will make a move this year nobody expects.
For sure, these projections are early. Rosters aren't even set yet. If Damon goes to the Blue Jays, give them two or three more wins, etc.
For the next post, the Fan will discuss a few of the surprising player projections we are seeing so far. Here's one tease, Dustin Pedroia will have a much higher VORP than Kevin Youkilis and Lackey will have a higher VORP than Beckett. Stay tuned.
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